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#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Two AI earnings reports shook the market on the same night: Broadcom's "strong" beat and Snowflake's "aggressive" guidance raise
After last night's U.S. market close, two AI-related earnings reports came out simultaneously:
Broadcom FY26 Q3
• Revenue 29.59 billion, +86% YoY, beating expectations
• Adjusted EPS $3.32, also beat
• AI semiconductor revenue 16.7 billion, +221% YoY
• Raised FY26 AI guidance from 56 billion to 58 billion, FY27 outlook at 115 billion
• But Q4 total revenue guidance at 34.8 billion, slightly below the sell-side estimate of 35 billion, initially fell after hours then recovered
Snowflake FY27 Q2
• Product revenue 1.492 billion, +37% YoY
• Full-year product guidance raised from 5.84 billion to 6.07 billion
• After-hours surged up to +22%
What this means for the crypto space
AI capital funding continues to expand → Nasdaq risk appetite recovers, BTC/ETH still show the beta elasticity with U.S. tech stocks. But Broadcom's "good earnings but stock fell" shows the market wants not just a beat, but a beat plus guidance. The same applies to crypto; just watching BTC rise is not enough, ETF net flows must be monitored.
The AI narrative is not cooling off, but the margin for error is zero; don't use "earnings hype" as a reason to go all in. The greed index has reached 73, and behind the lively market, beware of correction risks
The current Fear and Greed Index has reached 73, entering the greed zone, with market bullish sentiment continuing to heat up. BTC price is fluctuating around 81100, showing wide volatility in 24 hours, with a high of 82279 and a low of 77050, indicating intense battle between bulls and bears. The 1-hour KDJ has already turned downward, indicating a short-term need for a pullback, with key support around 79500.
ETH's trend is relatively more resilient, currently priced at 2518, quickly rebounding after bottoming at 2355 and stabilizing above 2480. However, compared to BTC, ETH's rebound strength has not shown a clear advantage, as market funds still prioritize Bitcoin.
When the greed index rises, it means most participants are optimistic, which often signals a phase prone to market shakeouts. Historically, when the index approaches the extreme greed zone near 80, a rapid correction often follows.
On the macro level, geopolitical disturbances have not dissipated, and oil prices and Federal Reserve expectations still loom overhead. Do not be blinded by short-term gains; chasing highs at elevated levels is not advisable. Focus on whether BTC support at 79500 can hold; if it holds, the consolidation and upward trend will continue; if the support breaks, a deep correction will follow. When the market is hot, it is even more important to manage positions well and maintain room for error.
⚠️Risk reminder: This is only an observation of market indicators and does not constitute investment advice #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 $ARB This wave of hype is entirely supported by the Robinhood chain.
Trading volume suddenly exploded, fee income surged, and the market quickly realized that ARB can receive real profit sharing. The narrative instantly made sense—this chain used to be quiet and unnoticed, but now it has become a revenue engine, so capital is naturally willing to pay a premium.
If on-chain activity can be maintained, ARB's potential is indeed still there, and small tokens within the ecosystem might also follow along. But the risks are equally clear: the current traffic largely depends on hype from small-time speculators. Once the hype fades and trading volume shrinks, income expectations will be disproven, and the price will fall quickly.
This is the first time ARB has an external real income source, which is a new variable, but it's far from a guaranteed win. Going forward, the focus should be on Robinhood chain data; if trading volume holds, the story stands, but if volume breaks, a reassessment is needed.
Don't rush to chase the highs; let the data run a bit more. $ARB Concerns and Anchors in ETH's Short-Term Rebound
The warming macro sentiment has provided upward momentum for $ETH. U.S. employment data falling short of expectations combined with dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials led the market to reprice the interest rate path. The rise in risk appetite has driven funds into crypto assets, with ETH following BTC to launch a night session attack from around $2380, once testing near $2530.
However, after the rapid price surge, technical indicators have signaled short-term overheating. The RSI has entered the overbought zone, indicating a natural correction demand after concentrated buying pressure is released. The current market faces a dual test: the $2550–$2600 range above is a recent dense chip area, requiring sustained volume to break through; the $2400 level below serves as a short-term strength/weakness reference line. If support holds on a pullback, the bullish structure can be maintained; otherwise, it may seek a more solid support area near $2290.
The capital flow shows contradictory signals. Intraday trading volume has significantly expanded, reflecting increased enthusiasm from retail and short-term funds, but ETF funds have shifted from net inflows to slight net outflows, revealing institutional tendencies to take profits or rebalance positions during the rebound. This pattern of "hot money inflow, cold money withdrawal" often implies a lack of foundation for sustained one-sided momentum in the short term.
Overall, ETH is currently in a tug-of-war stage between "macro-driven" and "technically overbought." If the price cannot quickly stabilize above $2550, it is more likely to pull back to $2400 to confirm support, using time to digest the overbought indicators.The thickest rebar in the concrete isn't on the blueprint; it's in the audit report.
You're fixated on the number at 3 PM on August 30: 5.9 million ETH. My gaze passes through this surface data and lands directly on its "structural load" — 5.06 million staked, an 86% collateralization rate, and an annual revenue stream of $335 million. There are no exterior decorations here; this is a true load-bearing wall. Every brick is a "staking certificate," every layer of mortar is "on-chain verification."
Managers of crypto asset vaults ultimately have to learn two things from architects: redundancy and anchoring.
A few hours later, I compared another blueprint — Strategy's 845,100 BTC. They continued to increase their holdings by 4,603 last week, like tightening every "high-strength bolt" at the foundation. But the non-operating enterprise proposal regarding MSCI qualification is where I truly unfold the white paper. This set of voices outweighs all retail bearish reports; it measures this building's "wind load coefficient": the stock indicator is no longer the earnings multiple of revenue but the "static load capacity of assets."
The definition of asset vaults in this era has evolved into the same aesthetic as supertall building structures: **who can maintain linear elasticity of the structure at the most complex stress nodes.**
The $335 million annual staking revenue is not profit; it is the building's damper. When index companies want to exclude this building from the "core business district" citing "non-operating" reasons, experienced engineers check not the curtain wall of the facade but the depth of the underground diaphragm wall into the bedrock. Institutions are testing durability — not charging forward. When you observe the top positions in the crypto industry, you are looking at a "pile foundation inspection report." Every steel pipe tested for static load represents a settlement limit of financing capacity.
And the noisy tags like #USAprilCPITonight are just advertisements sprayed on the construction site fences. They might change the color of the scaffolding but cannot alter the strength grade of the core tube. The real designers always check the readings of the "strain gauges" first thing in the morning — for example, 84%, 5.9M, or $335 million in annual revenue flow.
How tall this building can be built has never depended on the height of the tower crane.
Looking at the #KalshiPolyPerps barricade marked with caution colors. On the construction site, we call this "temporary support," which can never replace the 28-day strength of solidified cement.
The rebar is still being tied, and the cement trucks have never stopped turning. #cryptotreasurydurabilityWaking up, the group of people who missed the move fell silent. But what really sent chills down my spine wasn’t BTC surging to 81288, but those still fantasizing "it must bottom after such a drop." Do you know what the most fragile link in the market is right now? It’s not the direction, it’s the position size. It’s those who tried to bottom-fish around CPU 0.05 and are now staring blankly at 0.038. They won’t cut losses immediately, but every rebound becomes an opportunity for them to reduce their holdings. This hidden selling pressure is more unsettling than overt dumping. Let’s look at the facts first. BTC directly pulled up to 81288, ETH holds at 2515, ZEC suddenly surged to 954 due to privacy narratives, USELESS has been strong for several days to the point that bears are doubting themselves, EDGE is showing new theme-driven capital attraction ability around 0.66. SOL is still at 105, showing decent resilience, but I’m not going to guess the top. But I have to pour cold water: this round looks more like existing funds rapidly moving between sectors rather than the starting line of an incremental bull market. The crazier the theme, the faster the profit-taking piles up. What you chase today might be the liquidity left for you when others run tomorrow. My current strength ranking is as follows: - EDGE ＞ USELESS ＞ ZEC ＞ SOL ＞ BTC/ETH ＞ CPU Why put CPU last? Because it represents a "hotspot that has already died." The cruelest part of the market is that weak coins often rise the least and fall the fastest during rebounds. 0.038 looks cheap, but cheap has never been a reason to buy, no Brothers, I’m looking at today’s market, macro, and tonight’s data together, and the most important is still the 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls. Currently $BTC is around 81190, $ETH around 2522, both have retaken MA5/10/20 on the 15-minute chart, showing a relatively strong short-term recovery, but it’s not yet time to blindly chase longs.
Yesterday, Waller’s statement clearly eased the expectations for a September rate hike, with market pricing dropping from about 63% to around 50%, and the dollar and US Treasury yields also retreating, which is somewhat positive for risk assets.
Tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls is the watershed moment. The current expectation is about 56,000 new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate, while ADP is only 38,000, indicating a clear cooling in employment.
My judgment: pre-market is biased toward bullish consolidation, with increased volatility tonight. If Nonfarm is weak, BTC breaking 82300 targets 83000–84000, ETH breaking 2530 targets 2560–2600; if data is clearly strong, be cautious of a pullback after a spike, with BTC watching 80000 and ETH watching 2500.
So no chasing highs today, wait for the data to give direction. BTC looks at 80000–82300, ETH looks at 2500–2530, and follow whichever breaks out effectively first.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $ETH is facing significant selling pressure near 2510 USD, with short-term participants choosing to test shorts above 2500. The core logic is whether the price can effectively hold within the 2520 to 2550 USD range after continuous rebounds, which remains unconfirmed. However, the real variable is not on the chart but in the US August non-farm payroll data to be released at 20:30 Beijing time tonight.
Currently, the market expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. Leading data is weak: August ADP private employment increased by only 38,000, below the expected 48,000; July non-farm payrolls even decreased by 23,000. If tonight's data is significantly below expectations, the market may reprice the "weak employment, Fed policy shift" logic, and risk assets could gain support, potentially causing $ETH to rally quickly. Conversely, if the data is strong and the unemployment rate does not rise, expectations for rate cuts will cool, the dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and $ETH may continue to face short-term pressure.
Such data-driven market volatility is intense; chasing highs or selling lows is most to be avoided. It is necessary to wait for the first clear directional signal before making judgments. Risk warning: The linkage between macro data and the crypto market is uncertain; please manage your positions rationally. $ETH🔥$OKB Compliance Pitfall Avoidance: CEX Risk Control is Stricter Than a Mother-in-Law Checking In, Coin Price Also Pretends to Be Sick
On September 2, OKX founder Star Xu stated: High-risk address deposits may trigger enhanced AML; gambling-related, TG custody, Huione/Huiwang-type channels are under key scrutiny, with reviews starting at 15 days. Confirmed illegal activity can lead to account termination; the compliance team of over 600 people works specifically to reduce false positives. Transferring coins is like bringing a partner home to meet the parents—if documentation is incomplete, you get penalized standing in the living room. The more compliant the platform, the less gray-market funds want to come; short-term “activity” might be less wild, but fewer blowups in the long run, effectively buying insurance for OKB.
The irony is: users think they’re buying a “deflationary coin,” but they’re actually buying “exchange compliance shares.” Strict AML → increased deposit friction → short-term trading volume and platform coin speculation demand are suppressed; but transparent reserves and more licenses → institutions are more confident using OKX and X Layer. Europe is still pushing deposit campaigns, USDC liquidity, Pay/compliant payments, which is like “front-end serving milk tea, back-end checking IDs.”
Newbies shouldn’t just focus on the K-line: ① Check OKX Proof of Reserves and monthly audits; only search news if something goes wrong; ② Look at X Layer real addresses and Gas, not “RWA/AI/ten-thousand-chain” PPTs; ③ Monitor compliance false positive rates—frequent collateral damage hurts reputation; ④ Regarding price, don’t chase near 109, watch for support between 105–102, and look for transaction confirmations between 115–120. The biggest pitfall for platform coins isn’t “insufficient scarcity,” it’s “the exchange gets into trouble and it falls first.” #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Two major AI industry chain earnings reports have been released one after another. On the hardware side, Broadcom, and on the software side, Snowflake delivered differentiated but both impressive results, sending important signals to global risk assets.
Broadcom's revenue and EPS both exceeded market expectations this quarter, with explosive growth in AI semiconductor revenue and a significant upward revision of long-term AI revenue guidance; however, the short-term next quarter guidance slightly missed expectations, causing sharp volatility in after-hours stock price, reflecting the market's very low tolerance for high-valuation hardware stocks.
On the other hand, Snowflake directly raised its full-year revenue guidance, with rapid expansion in the number of AI-related product customers, confirming enterprise AI paid demand, and its stock surged significantly after hours.
Personal view: The AI narrative is no longer just hype; the market is starting to vote with earnings.
For hardware, look at order guidance; for software, look at customer paid conversion. Once earnings miss expectations, high-valuation stocks will face rapid valuation cuts. The sentiment of US tech stocks will indirectly affect risk appetite in the crypto market.
AI sector tailwinds will boost sentiment in the crypto AI sector but cannot be directly equated with a unilateral rise in the broader market. With the nonfarm payrolls approaching, macro remains the core variable driving the market. Earnings reports can only serve as sentiment catalysts and should not be the main basis for contract trading decisions.
In practice, do not impulsively chase highs on earnings tailwinds; focus on the overall sustainability of US tech stocks. If tech stocks collectively pull back, $BTC and $ETH are also likely to be dragged down.Apple's “innovation premium” is being shattered by reality
As Apple's stock price hovers at a high 35x P/E ratio while market consensus ratings fall to their lowest since 2019, the reasons for the bearish outlook are shifting from worries to the black and white facts in the financial reports.
The cancellation of the all-glass iPhone is the first crack. This 20th anniversary model, originally scheduled for release in 2027 with an expected price as high as $2060, has been confirmed dead by Jefferies due to production yield issues. This means Apple's strategy to push up the average selling price through aggressive new form factors has suffered a major setback—the foldable iPhone, although taking over, is estimated to start at $2199 for the 256GB version, destined to be a niche product with projected sales of only 14 million units in 2028.
Meanwhile, costs are starting to eat into profits. AI data center demand is driving up DRAM prices, with Morgan Stanley estimating that Apple's DRAM costs could surge about 370% in fiscal years 2025 to 2027. Apple's Q4 gross margin guidance is already below market expectations, and this is despite the “restraint” of only upgrading to 12GB memory on the iPhone 17 Pro Max.
More worrisome is that the services business, a pillar of high valuation, is loosening—growth has fallen below 10%. If higher iPhone prices begin to suppress upgrade demand and slow the expansion of the installed base, can the story of a 35x P/E ratio still hold? Six institutions have issued “sell” ratings, tying the highest record since 2012. This is not panic; it is rational repricing.🚨 Bitcoin just pulled off another massive short squeeze!
Bitcoin suddenly ripped from below $77,000 to above $81,000 overnight—and the move caught bears completely off guard.
So, what triggered it?
Fed Governor Waller’s comments eased fears around aggressive tightening in September. At the same time, global bond yields pulled back from their 2026 highs, giving risk assets room to breathe.
#DailyOrbit Nonfarm Payroll Data Sets the Direction: Key Battle in Crypto Tonight
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August nonfarm payroll report. This is the last critical employment data before the September FOMC meeting and a core variable for the current direction choice in the crypto market.
Previously, Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaled dovishness, stating that if inflation continues to improve, maintaining the current interest rate in September could be considered. Market expectations for a September rate hike have dropped from 63% to about 50%. Meanwhile, the August ADP "small nonfarm" added only 38,000 jobs, far below expectations. The U.S. dollar index fell below the 99 mark, and Bitcoin leveraged this momentum to break through 80,000. The market has already priced in a round of "weak employment" expectations; tonight's actual data deviation from expectations will be the key to determining the subsequent direction.
Based on current market expectations, there are three scenarios tonight. If nonfarm payrolls increase by more than 100,000, the labor market's resilience combined with inflation pressure will push the probability of a September rate hike back up. Bitcoin may quickly pull back in the short term, with support expected in the 78,000 to 79,000 range. If the increase is between 50,000 and 60,000, close to market expectations, Bitcoin will likely maintain high-level oscillation, and the direction choice will be postponed until next week's CPI data. If the increase is below 30,000 or turns negative again, rate hike expectations will be significantly reduced, and Bitcoin is expected to break through 83,000 or even higher #Oil prices are surging beneath the surface, and crypto market sentiment is being repriced
What really concerns me in this round of volatility is not a single attack, but that the energy game is shifting from "geopolitical conflict" to "structural tightening of the supply chain."
After the US airstrike on Iran on September 1, Brent crude oil $BZ quickly surged. On the surface, it looks like a safe-haven buy, but behind it is Saudi Arabia's exports falling to a 9-year low, the extension of the Russian diesel ban, and continued disruption of the Red Sea route—three key arteries simultaneously blocked. This is not a pulse but possibly a sustained expectation of tight supply. If oil prices hold above $85, Q4 inflation readings will be difficult to ease smoothly, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut window will be further compressed. The market is already digesting this combination; after the data release, $BTC hit a low of $76,800, with risk appetite clearly retreating.
In the short term, maintain a defensive stance on $BTC and $ETH.
BTC 79,500-80,500 has formed a new dense supply zone, making rebounds here prone to resistance; the key support below is in the 74,000-75,000 range, and if broken, testing 72,000 is possible. ETH is more correlated, with the exchange rate continuously weakening; once 2,420 breaks, the only support below is the 2,250-2,300 chip zone.
Of course, crypto is not a direct counterparty to energy, but the transmission chain of interest rate expectations is very clear. Now is not the time for grand narratives but to focus closely on macro data and respect market structure.
$BTC $ETH #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Two major AI earnings reports send a signal: the computing power rally is spreading to the software layer.
First, looking at Broadcom, this quarter delivered a mixed report card. In the third fiscal quarter, both overall revenue and profit beat market expectations, with AI semiconductor business revenue reaching $16.7 billion, maintaining a solid foundation for computing power chips. However, the market's divergence lies in the guidance; the fourth fiscal quarter revenue guidance is slightly below analysts' consensus expectations. After the announcement, the stock price plunged more than 6% in after-hours trading, then the decline narrowed.
The underlying logic is not hard to understand. The current valuation of Broadcom already includes a fairly high growth expectation. The core question the market cares about next is whether AI chips and networking business can continue to maintain rapid expansion amid a rising base. If growth falls short of expectations, valuation will face pressure.
On the other hand, Snowflake experienced a completely opposite trend. In the second fiscal quarter, product revenue surged 37% year-over-year, the number of paid accounts for the AI-assisted coding tool CoCo grew to 9,100, and the progress of AI feature implementation exceeded expectations. The company accordingly raised its full-year revenue and profit margin guidance, directly triggering a stock price surge, with after-hours gains exceeding 21%. The tokenized asset SNOW jumped from $300 to $376 in the short term, with a 24-hour peak increase of over 22%.#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
Recently, international crude oil has been stuck in a high-level oscillation pattern of bullish and bearish struggles. Multiple disturbances on the supply side intertwine with localized easing signals, and the direction of oil prices is no longer confined to the energy sector, further transmitting to inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, and even the crypto market.
From the supply fundamentals perspective, Saudi Arabia's observable crude oil exports in August fell to about 3 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level since 2017, continuing the strategy of production cuts to support oil prices. The latest official crude oil prices for October show a premium for the U.S. market and a discount for the European market, reflecting the differentiation in regional supply and demand patterns.
Geopolitical risks remain a sword hanging over the oil market. Shipping in the Red Sea continues to face armed threats, with some Saudi export routes blocked; under the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy infrastructure is frequently attacked, and the supply chain for refined oil products remains under pressure. These risks could at any time provide a pulse-like upward push to oil prices.
However, the market has also seen a key easing variable: signs of restored shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports have rebounded to 15 to 16 million barrels per day, and Vance data also shows daily crude oil passage through the strait approaching 15 million barrels. Shipping recovery will to some extent offset the geopolitical risk premium.
Currently, the core contradiction in the oil market is very clear: on one side, supply contraction risks brought by the Red Sea and Russia-Ukraine support the oil price floor; on the other side, the restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz exerts downward pressure on the risk premium. The tug-of-war between these two forces results in repeated high-level oscillations in oil prices.#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
After reviewing the earnings reports from Broadcom and Snowflake, my biggest impression is that the AI market is undergoing a clear shift.
Dell has already raised its full-year revenue forecast for AI servers in advance, indicating that demand for computing hardware remains strong. Broadcom's earnings report showed third-quarter revenue and profits beating market expectations across the board, with AI semiconductor revenue surging to $16.7 billion. The hardware side's explosive growth is visibly evident. However, the downside is that the fourth-quarter revenue guidance slightly missed analysts' expectations, which caused the stock price to plunge over 6% in after-hours trading before gradually narrowing the losses.
This is understandable, as the market's expectations for AI hardware have already been set very high. Investors no longer just look at past earnings but are more concerned about whether AI chips and networking businesses can continue to exceed expectations going forward. If guidance is even a bit conservative, capital votes with its feet.
On the other hand, Snowflake delivered a completely different result. In Q2, product revenue surged 37% year-over-year, the number of paying accounts for the AI-assisted coding tool CoCo jumped directly to 9,100, and the company raised its full-year revenue and margin guidance, causing the stock to soar over 21% in after-hours trading.
The logic on the cloud software side is very clear: the market is shifting its focus from underlying computing chips to AI's real-world software applications. But whether Snowflake can maintain this momentum depends on whether AI features can continuously drive customer usage and boost cloud data consumption growth — this is the real test.
Looking at both earnings reports together makes it clear: the wave of AI demand is gradually spreading from hardware like servers and chips to cloud data and software applications. But the market today is very selective, no longer satisfied with just a "good story"; it demands faster performance delivery. Hardware that beats expectations but has weak guidance gets punished, while software that delivers strong guidance sees big gains — this is the most authentic reflection of the current market.Federal Reserve Governor Waller's remarks on September 3 introduced a key variable for the September monetary policy meeting. This former hawkish core figure clearly stated that whether to support a rate hike "largely depends on" the August inflation data, causing the market's probability expectation for a September rate hike to drop sharply from 63% to 52%.
The US dollar weakened and US Treasury yields fell, leading two types of zero-coupon assets to surge — Bitcoin closed up 5.33% at $81,429, reaching a nearly four-month high; gold rose 2.37% to $4,491, breaking above $4,500 intraday.
Although the logic behind their rise shares the same source, their positioning is completely different. Bitcoin is viewed by the market as a highly elastic risk asset, with rising expectations of rate cuts triggering rapid capital inflows. Its correlation with gold, though exceeding 0.86, is more a joint response to the same macro factor. Gold, meanwhile, benefits from both a weaker dollar and declining real interest rates, with its safe-haven attribute combined with inflation-hedging function providing dual support.
However, whether this rally can continue entirely depends on data in the next two weeks. This Friday's nonfarm payroll report and next Friday's August CPI will directly determine the Federal Reserve's final decision on September 16. If the data supports pausing rate hikes, Bitcoin could challenge $83,000 or even higher, and gold might test its previous high near $4,700; if the data is hotter, causing rate hike expectations to rise again, Bitcoin may pull back to around $70,000, and gold will test the $4,000 support level.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 It's been a week, and $BTC $ETH $SOL finally broke sideways last night. I checked the news and my follow-up trading strategy.
BTC at 81105, touched 82285, with a low pullback to 77110. ETH at 2511, high at 2530, low at 2379. SOL at 103.9, high at 105.93, low at 99.72. BTC pushed up again from last night's 81300, ETH held steady at 2500, SOL hovered around 104.
Last night the ETF data came out: Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was 731 million, Ethereum spot ETF net inflow was 141 million, totaling 872 million USD in buying pressure. The market data matches this — BTC rose from 76900 to 82285, ETH from 2368 to 2530, all backed by real money.
Fidelity released a report saying the Bitcoin bear market might not be over, possibly testing new lows in November. Such bearish reports are just for show; ETFs are buying 700 million a day, and Fidelity itself sells ETF products, so their words say bearish but their actions are honest.
BTC at 82285 is the first hurdle; if it holds the 80800-81000 pullback, the next target is 82500-83000. ETH has stabilized at 2500, with support at 2480-2490, targeting 2530-2550. SOL is hovering near 103, with support at 102-103, targeting 105-106 #比特币再破80000美元
Bitcoin briefly broke through $80,000 again, with topic popularity soaring and over a million views, creating a strong market speculation atmosphere.
This round of rebound is supported by macro factors: market expectations for further Fed rate hikes have cooled, and U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, providing support for the coin price. In August, the U.S. spot BTC ETF maintained a net inflow of funds overall, but entering early September, funds began to fluctuate bidirectionally, and institutions have not formed sustained buying power.
Market opinions show clear divergence. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua judges that the bull market trend has already started, with the next key resistance level at $86,000. Meanwhile, Jiang Zhuoer fully liquidated his Bitcoin holdings near $82,050, warning that after ETF funds weaken, there is a risk of a market pullback.
Data shows Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has risen to a high since 2020, and the logic of hedging against currency depreciation is once again being valued by the market.
The current market debate focuses on whether institutional funds and the gold linkage effect can support Bitcoin in absorbing the large sell orders in the $80,000–$82,500 range and break upward; or if this rally will ultimately return to a range-bound pattern.
From the chart perspective, after a large-scale rebound, the market has entered a box consolidation phase. The overall major trend remains bullish, but the market is already at the end of the consolidation period. There is a short-term need for a pullback; operationally, it is not advisable to blindly chase highs. It is better to wait for a stable pullback before seeking suitable opportunities. #沃勒：August inflation will decide whether there is a rate hike in September
What really needs to be put on the table this time are $BTC, $ETH, and XAUT.
BTC is betting on liquidity, ETH is responsible for amplifying risk appetite, and XAUT is asking: can inflation and the Middle East situation still be contained?
Now BTC has retaken 80,000, ETH has touched 2,500, and the market indeed looks quite lively. But Waller has already made it clear: whether there will be a rate hike in September depends not only on employment but on August inflation.
So tonight’s most deceptive scenario might not be a very good or very bad non-farm payroll, but rather new jobs looking weak while wages remain stubbornly high.
Bulls see "no rate hike," bears see "inflation can't be contained," both sides rush in, and the candlesticks start to shake people out back and forth.
If employment only cools moderately without a sudden collapse, that’s most comfortable for BTC and ETH: BTC holds 80,000, ETH continues to show resilience; but if wages stay hot and US bond yields rise again, ETH will likely dump faster than BTC.
XAUT is actually worth watching closely on the side. The US-Iran situation hasn’t truly calmed down, the Strait of Hormuz is still affecting oil prices, and if energy inflation continues to flare up, the gold line might be tougher than expected.
Don’t rush to call bull or bear on the first candlestick tonight.
The market likes to first trick those who only read the headlines, then settle the score with the details in the data.
$ZEC Tsk, BTC is flexing its muscles today, ETH is looking pretty good too, but what about $1INCH? You’re always like cold coffee grounds, sitting at the bottom of the cup for ages, motionless, really frustrating. But I actually appreciate your honesty: while others are throwing coins around like flyers, you’re still finding the best routes for retail investors, calculating every move like the auntie downstairs who snagged discounted veggies. Everyone on Twitter is hyping AI, the chain is full of meme coins, but who still remembers how you pulled back stuck transactions one by one in the middle of the night? I have nothing to scold you for, just annoyed that you always pretend to wake up only after others have taken off. They say the last inch is the hardest to endure, but I’ve developed patience with you; coffee grounds are bitter, but drinking them late at night is invigorating. No matter how cold the DeFi track gets, someone has to keep watch at night. With all this noise, don’t fall first—you’ll be recognized as the ferryman by the next wave. Come on, cheers to all the honest folks still waiting for the wind to come, take it slow. #1INCH #DeFi #WaitingForTheWind#比特币再破80000美元
Just finished reading the earnings reports from Broadcom and Snowflake, feeling a bit reflective—AI market momentum is quietly shifting tracks.
Starting with Broadcom, Q3 results themselves exceeded expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue hitting $16.7 billion, truly impressive. But the market focused on the Q4 guidance, which was seen as slightly below expectations, causing after-hours trading to plunge over 6%. Simply put, investors' appetites are now very high; just doing well is no longer enough, it has to surpass everyone's imagination. What everyone is most concerned about now is whether its AI chips and networking business can continue to maintain this rapid growth.
On the other hand, Snowflake showed a completely different trend. Q2 product revenue rose 37% year-over-year, AI tool CoCo's user accounts have reached 9,100, leading to an immediate upward revision of full-year revenue and profit margin guidance, with after-hours trading surging over 21%.
My biggest takeaway: the wave of AI demand is gradually spreading from the upstream computing chips and servers toward data cloud and software applications. Previously, everyone was just scrambling for chips; now the focus is on whether upper-layer applications can truly utilize computing power.
But there is also a reality here: market patience is dwindling, and the demands for companies to deliver results quickly are becoming increasingly strict. If performance exceeds expectations, capital rushes in; if guidance falls short even slightly, it gets immediately punished.
I wonder what everyone thinks—do you believe the upcoming AI opportunities will be more concentrated on the computing power side, or on data and software applications? Taking a quick look at the market, ETH is still hovering around $2500, with no signs of a major move up or down, but one detail caught my attention — the strongest institutional buying momentum earlier has clearly slowed down.
A couple of days ago, ETF inflows were still hitting hundreds of millions, but yesterday it shrank directly to around $9 million. That’s a huge drop. To put it simply, ETH’s jump from 2000 to 2500 was driven by institutions pushing from behind. Now that tailwind has stopped, whether the price can hold depends on whether the market’s own real buy orders are strong enough.
So tonight, I won’t be shouting “aiming for 3000” — no need to rush.
Right now, the two key levels are: whether the 2500 mark can hold before the non-farm payrolls, and the market’s reaction after tomorrow’s data release. If the data looks good, funds flow back into risk assets, and ETH recovers 2600 accordingly, that will be the real starting line. Until then, let the market take a couple of steps on its own.
Before non-farm payrolls, the market usually waits cautiously for direction. Jumping in to bet on direction now isn’t cost-effective. Let’s watch around 2500 first and wait for the data to come out. What do you think? $BTC $ETH
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元
#Here it comes, here it comes, $BTC (Bitcoin) has once again surpassed eighty thousand dollars. Honestly, this level is familiar to everyone; it was touched once recently and then pushed back. This time, breaking through again feels a bit different. Let's first talk about why it can break through eighty thousand again. The most direct trigger is still a bit of easing on the macro side. Before the CPI data came out a couple of days ago, the market was actually holding its breath waiting. When the data landed, it was slightly lower than expected, and core inflation was still relatively restrained. The market immediately started betting again that the Fed would speed up its rate cut pace. With the US dollar index weakening and US stock futures pushing up, $BTC, being the asset most sensitive to liquidity, was the first to react. Plus, the previous Robinhood on-chain volume surge lifted overall risk appetite, and off-exchange funds saw the sentiment warming up and dared to rush in. The market details are also quite interesting. This time it wasn’t a sudden spike straight up; it was more of a slow grind around seventy-six to seventy-seven thousand for a while, then suddenly volume surged, and an hourly candle directly pushed past eighty thousand. The volume kept up during the breakout, indicating it wasn’t a pure spike to lure buyers but real buying pressure absorbing the supply. However, after breaking through, it didn’t accelerate immediately; instead, it started to fluctuate around 80,500 to 81,000, showing that trapped positions and profit-taking are still testing each other, and no one wants to admit defeat first. The likely upcoming volatility is as follows: the eighty thousand level is more of a psychological barrier than a technical one. The real strong resistance lies between 82,000 and 84,000, which is a dense trapped position area left from the previous two failed attempts to break higher.$ZEC has nearly multiplied more than 30 times from last year to this year. Currently, the price of $ZEC is 948 USD, with the upper high point at 979.7 USD. From the current market situation, I think $ZEC might be nearing its peak, but since it is currently oscillating at a high level, I feel there is still a possibility of another rise. Personally, I believe $ZEC reaching 1000 USD is entirely possible.
Moreover, below 850 USD, there are many 50x short positions heavily leveraged. If these short positions do not get liquidated, $ZEC will not truly crash sharply. I roughly checked, and many short positions are at several times their losses, some even as high as over 20 times losses. The main reason is that they all opened 50x short positions. I feel it’s best not to short $ZEC because this coin is actually very strong and particularly hard to short down. Moving forward, I continue to be bullish, expecting it to reach 1000 USD.$CORE delayed five times! Deposit repeatedly postponed, final judgment at 5 PM
Changed three times, four times, five times!
The deposit opening time has been repeatedly postponed, from 11 AM on the 3rd all the way to 5 PM on the 4th, with multiple time changes continuously testing holders' patience.
The deposit channel remains locked, and tokens from on-chain staking redemption and excess issuance overflow cannot be transferred into exchanges for sale. Objectively, this temporarily suppresses selling pressure and supports the market price, but this only postpones the risk; the tokens do not disappear out of thin air, and selling pressure still truly exists.
Repeated delays have two effects: on one hand, they buy time for the project team to address various legacy issues related to the block over-issuance vulnerability; on the other hand, the community sentiment is severely divided. Some holders have been worn out by the repeated waiting and will choose to exit as soon as the channel opens; others still hold hope, firmly believing that a rebound will come once deposits resume, creating a high-level conflict between bulls and bears.
Of course, it cannot be ruled out that the on-chain repair difficulty exceeds expectations, and purely technical challenges cause continuous maintenance delays.
5 PM is the touchstone to tear away illusions.
Once the transfer gate opens, a large volume of tokens will flood into exchanges, releasing the long-accumulated selling pressure all at once; if the on-chain transferable tokens are limited, the market will then experience emotional recovery after the boot drops.
Do not expect a direct surge once deposits resume; maintenance only reopens the transfer channel and will not magically bring buying pressure. The subsequent market trend entirely depends on the actual scale of tokens transferred out on-chain.$CHIP The CHIP 4H chart confirms an aggressive parabolic surge past $0.050, heavily stretching the distance from its ascending trendline and the dynamic MA100 line. A pronounced upper-wick rejection at $0.063 indicates active profit-taking, favoring a corrective pullback to rebalance order flow. The optimal execution is a small-sized Short scalp near $0.059 with a tight stop-loss parameter above $0.0628, targeting the converted $0.0477–$0.0500 support shelf. #WallerEyesAugCPI The internet bubble from 1995 to 2001 was a bubble formed by the combination of a "real technological revolution + extreme capital pricing." Today's AI might be similar. The difference is: the main problem with the internet bubble was that commercialization was too early and profitability was too far off; the current issue with AI seems more like—commercialization has already happened, but capital expenditure, profit expectations, and valuations are mutually reinforcing, possibly leading to a phase of overinvestment. Moreover, today's macro environment is actually much more complex than in 1999. ⸻ 1. First, let's fully review the internet bubble from 1995 to 2001 The internet bubble cannot be simply understood as "internet companies deceiving people." This is the most important point. The internet itself was not wrong; the mistake was that the capital market priced the value of the next 10 to 20 years entirely in advance during 1999–2000. 1995: The internet revolution truly began entering the capital market 1995 was a very important year. After Netscape's IPO, the capital market for the first time widely realized: "The internet might create a completely different business world." At that time, the internet was still in its very early stage. In 1995, only about 14% of American adults were online; by 1999, this had reached 41%. In other words, the number of internet users was growing rapidly. Meanwhile, companies like Amazon, eBay, and Yahoo began to emerge. The problem was: the future value of these companies was very easy to imagine, but their profitability at the time was hard to verify. So the capital marCrypto Circle Midday Brief｜2026-09-04 #Waller: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September
Market @币圈超短王马大帅
BTC surged to 82000 then pulled back to around 81100; resistance at 82200, support at 79600. ETH rose to around 2510. Broad market rally, meme sector heat rebounds, greed index at 65.
Contracts
18.3 billion USD liquidated across the network in 24 hours, short stop-losses pushing the rise; BTC ETF saw slight net inflows, ETH ETF funds outflowing, high-level longs starting to take profits.
Macro & Industry
Fed officials lean dovish, expectations for a September rate hike cool down; US stocks closed higher boosting risk assets. Robinhood chain MEME coin heavily speculated, Japanese listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings show increased unrealized gains.
Brief commentary: After a short-term rapid rebound, a pullback is needed; avoid chasing highs, wait for pullback confirmation to observe direction. $BTC is once again preparing to break through 83000! But the resistance is obvious!
It is completely reasonable for me to position a short at 82199!
Data shows BTC falling below 76,796 USD, with CEX cumulative long liquidation intensity reaching 2.935 billion USD.
Conversely, if BTC breaks through 84,776 USD, cumulative short liquidation intensity will reach 1.534 billion USD.
What do you think will happen first, a rise or a fall??
#比特币再破80000美元 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
@OKX中文 @OKX星球 Institutional Projections for the Next Bitcoin Price Cycle
⚠️ The following is based solely on public institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving was completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main bull market window, meaning the second half of 2026 to 2027 is highly likely to be the peak period of this cycle.
However, the market is now institutionalized (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), so the bull market gains will be diminished compared to the previous two cycles and will not replicate the several-fold rapid surge seen in 2021.
Three scenario projections (top prices for this bull market cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability): The bull market is a weak rebound without a super bull market.
Top price: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Fed rate cuts, long-term high interest rates maintained;
2. Continued strict US crypto regulation, large continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, collective valuation cuts across all risk assets;
4. Institutional allocation willingness below expectations, mainly retail speculation.
Characteristics: Only new highs without a huge bubble; after the peak, a rapid bear market follows with a pullback still reaching 50-65%.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream institutional consensus, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $180,000 - $260,000
Representative institutions: Standard Chartered, Bernstein, Galaxy, JPMorgan baseline assumptions.
Conditions to be met simultaneously:
1. Fed initiates substantial rate cuts, weakening the US dollar;
2. US spot ETFs maintain stable monthly net inflows, pensions and family offices continue small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation is implemented, uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders’ positions remain solid, exchange inventories continue to decline.
Historical comparison: 2021 bull market peak was $69,000; the neutral scenario corresponds to 2.5-3.7 times the previous cycle’s peak; institutions generally believe institutional capital entry will raise the floor but compress the bubble phase’s crazy gains, making tens of times explosive growth unlikely.
③ Optimistic Scenario (super cycle/strong bubble, 25% probability)
Top price: $300,000 - $420,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met:
1. Sovereign states/large sovereign funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, large-scale corporate Bitcoin balance sheet inclusion;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, leading to "digital gold" asset revaluation;
4. No major black swan events, extremely loose liquidity.
ARK’s Cathie Wood’s extreme optimistic model projects $500,000+, which is a low-probability ideal scenario and should not be considered expected returns.
❌ Extremely optimistic million-dollar target
Many KOLs promote BTC reaching $1 million, which is a very long-term super cycle fantasy, not a prediction for the 2026-2027 bull market. It likely requires crossing 2-3 halving cycles and is almost impossible in this cycle.
Important changes in historical cycles (why previous gains cannot be simply copied):
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, pure retail, very small market size;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 cycle: large institutional capital entry, huge market size, overall multiples further compressed, do not expect to replicate early tens-of-times wealth gains.
History: Average 530 days from halving to peak, but in the institutional era cycles may lengthen, bull market duration may extend, and corrections may deepen; it is not a straight upward line, with intermediate 30-45% medium-large pullbacks.
Four core observation indicators determining this bull market ceiling (more useful than price predictions):
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflow scale: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the funding cornerstone for bull market continuation; continuous large outflows for multiple months will lower bull market height.
2. Fed real interest rates: rate declines favor BTC; inflation rebounds and resumed rate hikes directly shatter the bull market.
3. On-chain data: changes in exchange BTC inventory; continuous inventory decline indicates whales accumulating; continuous inventory increase indicates whales selling.
4. Regulation: US regulation is the biggest variable; favorable policies open imagination space; crackdowns directly end the bull market.
Realistic risks (bull market is not guaranteed):
1. Cycle failure risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, causing a "prolonged oscillating bull market" or even complete halving effect failure, resulting in long-term range-bound trading;
2. Even if the bull market arrives, a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur after the peak;
3. Do not treat "bull market reaching XX price" as certain; predictions are just scenario simulations, black swans can rewrite all logic at any time.
Summary in one sentence:
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $180,000-$260,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $300,000-$420,000; the million-dollar target does not belong to this cycle. The bull market is not a straight rise; there will be significant pullbacks. All predictions are based on a series of assumptions about macroeconomics, capital, and regulation.- Circle's integration with OKX indicates it is reducing its reliance on Coinbase and building an independent global financial infrastructure.
- Coinbase faces intense competition, with its long-term value depending on compliance advantages, institutional custody, and the development of the Base chain.
- Both parties are shifting from a highly bound relationship to independently building their ecosystems, moving from cooperation toward more competition and intersecting interests in the future.
$ETH $BTC $CRCL Crypto Circle Midday Brief｜2026-09-04 #Waller: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September
Market @币圈超短王马大帅
BTC surged to 82000 then pulled back to around 81100; resistance at 82200, support at 79600. ETH rose to around 2510. Broad market rally, meme sector heat rebounds, greed index at 65.
Contracts
18.3 billion USD liquidated across the network in 24 hours, short stop-losses pushing the rise; BTC ETF saw slight net inflows, ETH ETF funds outflowing, high-level longs starting to take profits.
Macro & Industry
Fed officials lean dovish, expectations for a September rate hike cool down; US stocks closed higher boosting risk assets. Robinhood chain MEME coin heavily speculated, Japanese listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings show increased unrealized gains.
Brief commentary: After a short-term rapid rebound, a pullback is needed; avoid chasing highs, wait for pullback confirmation to observe direction. When I first entered the industry, I thought I was smarter than the house, but I ended up losing for eight months straight, even putting my year-end bonus all in.
Later, I changed my approach, only using a small fraction of my monthly salary to buy $BTC, then transferring it to a cold wallet, writing the password on paper and hiding it in an old book.
Once, when $BTC surged, I excitedly wanted to sell, but I couldn’t find that book after searching the bookshelf. By the time I found it, the price had dropped back down, and I laughed at myself.
Since then, I realized that what’s meant to be will be, and what’s not meant to be, don’t force it.
In between, a friend pulled me into $ETH, saying there would be big benefits after the upgrade. I bought $500 worth, sold at $600, and later it rose to $2,000. I didn’t regret it because that $500 was money I was prepared to lose.
Now I only have a little $SOL left, leftover from mining back then, not worth much, but watching it move occasionally feels like having a digital pet.
The best habit I gained is turning my phone to silent before bed, so I no longer get startled awake by liquidation alerts in the middle of the night.
When I make money, I buy my wife flowers—it’s better than leaving it in the account waiting to get stung.
When I lose, I treat it like watching a special effects blockbuster; at least my heart gets stronger.
Now I think the best strategy in crypto is not to see yourself as a player, but as an occasional passerby spectator. #比特币再破80000美元
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Bitcoin Strongly Rebounds Above $81,000, Nonfarm Payroll Data Becomes Key Test
Bitcoin has seen a long-awaited strong rebound, rallying from the previous low of $76,968 to break through the $80,000 mark, reaching a high of $82,300, a nearly 14-day high. Ethereum simultaneously recovered above $2,500, with mainstream coins broadly following the upward trend.
The core catalyst for this round of market movement comes from the Federal Reserve. Governor Waller released dovish signals, stating that if inflation continues to improve, he would support pausing rate hikes in September. The market's probability of a rate hike sharply declined, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk appetite fully returned.
The three major U.S. stock indices posted their largest monthly gains, with funds flowing out to the crypto market. Meanwhile, in the past 24 hours, liquidations of short positions across the network reached as high as $471 million, and large-scale forced liquidations further amplified the upward momentum.
From a technical perspective, $BTC has stabilized above all major moving averages, with the next resistance zone between $82,000 and $83,000. However, the RSI is approaching the overbought region, so short-term correction pressure should not be ignored. On the capital side, U.S. spot ETFs have resumed net inflows, but stablecoin momentum has slowed, and overall liquidity has not yet fully expanded.
The upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll report tonight will be a key variable to test the strength of this rebound. If employment data is weaker than expected, expectations for rate cuts will solidify, and $80,000 could become a solid support; if the data is strong, long-term yields may rise again, and the current rally driven by macro expectations and short covering could quickly reverse. The battle between bulls and bears is about to ignite.Just placed a short-term short position around $ETH at about 2,535 USD. Why choose this level? ETH has recently rebounded continuously and climbed back above 2,500 USD, but the pressure in the 2,540–2,580 USD range is becoming noticeably stronger. If the price continues to break upwards, the key focus next is whether this range can truly turn into support. However, what the market really needs to pay attention to tonight is not ETH itself, but the US employment data. 📊 At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US will release the latest non-farm payroll report. The market currently expects an increase of about 62,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain around 4.1%. From previous leading indicators, the job market still shows some signs of cooling. ADP private sector employment growth was lower than previous market expectations, and earlier non-farm data was revised downward, which means tonight's data may further influence the market's judgment on the Fed's subsequent policy path. If non-farm payrolls are significantly below expectations: ➡️ Employment cools down ➡️ Rate cut expectations heat up again ➡️ The dollar and US Treasury yields may come under pressure ➡️ Risk assets gain support ➡️ ETH may see a rapid rebound Conversely, if non-farm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected and the unemployment rate does not rise: ➡️ Rate cut expectations may cool further ➡️ The dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen ➡️ Risk assets face short-term pressure ➡️ ETH may continue to test lower support So, this time $ETH around Crypto Circle Midday Brief｜2026-09-04 #Waller: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September
Market @币圈超短王马大帅
BTC surged to 82000 then pulled back to around 81100; resistance at 82200, support at 79600. ETH rose to around 2510. Broad market rally, meme sector heat rebounds, greed index at 65.
Contracts
18.3 billion USD liquidated across the network in 24 hours, short stop-losses pushing the rise; BTC ETF saw slight net inflows, ETH ETF funds outflowing, high-level longs starting to take profits.
Macro & Industry
Fed officials lean dovish, expectations for a September rate hike cool down; US stocks closed higher boosting risk assets. Robinhood chain MEME coin heavily speculated, Japanese listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings show increased unrealized gains.
Brief commentary: After a short-term rapid rebound, a pullback is needed; avoid chasing highs, wait for pullback confirmation to observe direction. Tonight at 8:30 PM, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls will be released.
Jingyi will first drop the conclusion here: August's nonfarm payrolls are likely to be weak, but not collapse.
I expect new jobs to be between 20,000 and 40,000, while the market expects 55,000, which is quite a gap but not negative growth. Unemployment rate around 4.1-4.2%, wages near 3.2%.
Why this judgment? Three solid pieces of evidence:
1: ADP only increased by 38,000, hitting a new low this year, with manufacturing employment clearly weakening.
2: July nonfarm payrolls directly showed negative growth, and May and June were revised down by 103,000; employment is cooling down as a trend, not just a one-month blip.
3: Job openings continue to decline, the four-week average of initial jobless claims is rising, showing a real drop in companies' willingness to hire.
But don't celebrate too early—weak employment ≠ no rate hikes. Walsh made it clear at Jackson Hole: the primary goal now is inflation, not employment. Unless employment collapses terribly, the 62% probability of a rate hike won't drop. So this doesn't mean a bull market is really here.
Trading strategy:
During the day, mainly use low-risk long positions. Not recommended to take large positions; quick in and out with good defense. Before the data release, there are several trading methods.
Hold positions before nonfarm payrolls; in this kind of market, sweeping back and forth with heavy positions is just giving away money. Defend well, don't be lucky.Summary of destinations for stock token LP: Five emerging AMMs have appeared in the Robinhood Chain ecosystem. As stock token trading on Robinhood Chain gradually increases, five emerging AMMs supporting stock token liquidity pools have appeared within the ecosystem. Users can provide liquidity for stock token trading pairs to earn transaction fees, marking that tokenized stocks are moving from the issuance phase into a stage where on-chain trading infrastructure is gradually improving. Robinhood previously announced the construction of its own blockchain, Robinhood Chain, to support its tokenized stock business, enabling traditional securities like U.S. stocks to be traded nearly around the clock in the form of on-chain tokens. As the number of on-chain stock tokens and trading demand grow, relying solely on official matching is no longer sufficient to cover all liquidity needs. A group of emerging AMMs (automated market makers) have begun to specifically support stock token trading pairs. The five emerging AMMs reviewed this time represent this trend. For ordinary users, the core gameplay of these AMMs is to inject liquidity (LP) into stock token trading pairs and earn a share of transaction fees. Because stock token trading hours cover traditional market off-hours, on-chain volatility and cross-market price differences may bring higher turnover. Theoretically, the fee income potential is greater than ordinary stablecoin pools, but it also comes with risks such as impermanent loss, stock token de-pegging, oracle pricing deviations, and smart contract vulnerabilities. Participants need to evaluate pool depth, pricing mechanisms, and protocol security before joining. The significance of this phenomenon lies in that the competition for tokenized stocks is shifting from whether it canCrypto Circle Midday Brief｜2026-09-04 #Waller: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September
Market @币圈超短王马大帅
BTC surged to 82000 then pulled back to around 81100; resistance at 82200, support at 79600. ETH rose to around 2510. Broad market rally, meme sector heat rebounds, greed index at 65.
Contracts
18.3 billion USD liquidated across the network in 24 hours, short stop-losses pushing the rise; BTC ETF saw slight net inflows, ETH ETF funds outflowing, high-level longs starting to take profits.
Macro & Industry
Fed officials lean dovish, expectations for a September rate hike cool down; US stocks closed higher boosting risk assets. Robinhood chain MEME coin heavily speculated, Japanese listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings show increased unrealized gains.
Brief commentary: After a short-term rapid rebound, a pullback is needed; avoid chasing highs, wait for pullback confirmation to observe direction. As mentioned yesterday, those who missed $UNI can take a look at $ARB.
The current logic still holds: from the spot market perspective, the explosive growth of RH Chain directly benefits UNI, followed by ARB. Jump in directly—when the opportunity comes, get on board first, then analyze if you get stuck.
Robinhood Chain has been online for only two months, with fee revenue reaching 13.05 million USD, a record high. Annualized based on the last 30 days' revenue, it's about 110 million USD. More importantly, this revenue is not entirely exclusive to RH Chain: according to the cooperation agreement, 10% of the protocol's net income is returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem, with 8% going to the DAO treasury and 2% to the Developer Guild. Based on current cumulative revenue, about 1.3 million USD has already flowed to Arbitrum.
Although ARB is not as strong as UNI, those who missed UNI can still consider it as an alternative.
#OKX星球话题来啦
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Crypto Circle Midday Brief｜2026-09-04 #Waller: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September
Market @币圈超短王马大帅
BTC surged to 82000 then pulled back to around 81100; resistance at 82200, support at 79600. ETH rose to around 2510. Broad market rally, meme sector heat rebounds, greed index at 65.
Contracts
18.3 billion USD liquidated across the network in 24 hours, short stop-losses pushing the rise; BTC ETF saw slight net inflows, ETH ETF funds outflowing, high-level longs starting to take profits.
Macro & Industry
Fed officials lean dovish, expectations for a September rate hike cool down; US stocks closed higher boosting risk assets. Robinhood chain MEME coin heavily speculated, Japanese listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings show increased unrealized gains.
Brief commentary: After a short-term rapid rebound, a pullback is needed; avoid chasing highs, wait for pullback confirmation to observe direction. 📰 【Yesterday, US Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow Reached $730.8 Million】
According to BlockBeats, on September 4th, Farside monitoring reported that the US Bitcoin Spot ETF had a net inflow of $730.8 million yesterday, with BlackRock IBIT net inflow of $454 million and ARKB net inflow of $137.7 million.
This wave of ETF net inflows looks quite strong, but don't just look at the total amount. BlackRock alone accounts for the majority, indicating that large funds are still selective. Retail investors chasing sentiment tend to overlook small pitfalls like fees and premiums. Whether this round represents genuine institutional commitment or short-term risk-hedging group behavior needs a few more days of observation. How long do you think this inflow can last? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Short near $ETH 2510, focus on the non-farm payrolls tonight!
This is not a purely bearish judgment, but treating the area above 2500 as a resistance zone for short-term trial and error. ETH has bounced here, but volume and structure have not confirmed a breakout yet; 2520-2550 remains the boundary between bulls and bears. If it can't hold above, treat it as a rebound for now.
The real variable is the US August non-farm payrolls at 20:30 Beijing time. The market expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%; the preceding ADP only increased by 38,000, and July's non-farm payrolls were revised down, indicating employment is not that strong. If the data is weaker than expected, the market will trade "cooling employment → Fed pivot," and risk assets may rally first; if employment is stronger and unemployment does not rise, rate cut expectations will remain pressured, the dollar/US bonds will rise, and ETH will look weak in the short term.
Handling: Observe short positions below 2500, watch the first pullback at 2470-2450; if volume supports a steady hold above 2520, admit the short position was wrong and don't stubbornly hold. Don't chase the first candle after the data release; wait for volatility to settle. Position size and stop loss are more important than direction.
The last data set before the FOMC: this Friday's non-farm payrolls #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #Saudi crude oil exports fall to a 9-year low, oil prices soar
BZ +0.65%, CL +1.05%
Don’t rush to look at oil yet
Saudi Arabia’s 9-year low is not due to production cuts, but because of being squeezed
OPEC+ is implementing quota cuts
But in summer, Russian oil faced sanctions
The Red Sea detour in the Middle East is still ongoing
Buyers can only replenish from Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s volume can’t meet demand
Oil prices are pushed up
Today BZ Brent and CL WTI both rose
This is not good news from OPEC
It’s supply being artificially squeezed
Inflation will take another round from energy
There’s also the non-farm payroll tonight
Oil prices + non-farm payroll both hitting together
The dollar and US bonds are under great pressure
Risk assets are instead pushed up short-term
So my judgment is: don’t short BTC in the short term tonight, follow energy + data
$BZ $CL $BTC #crudeoilBrothers, $SNDK is oscillating repeatedly around 1500, with chips exchanging hands.
Just checked the closing data, SNDK closed at $1,554.99, slightly up 0.10%, with an intraday low of $1,511 and a high of $1,576.8. The $1,570 reported by a brother was already a relatively high position during the day, closing back near $1,555.
What is happening in the market? The liquidity pulse brought by the last MSCI inclusion has faded, and short-term funds are increasingly divided. The 4-hour volume is moderately contracting, bulls and bears are tugging between 1500-1570, with the lower support zone repeatedly tested, which is a normal pullback confirmation. Analysts regard 1500-1530 as a key support zone, waiting for stabilization to buy on dips.
Fundamentals remain unchanged. Fiscal year 2026 revenue is $20.25 billion, net profit margin 56.46%, with a year-to-date increase still over 554%. The analyst 1-year average target price is $2,125, about 36% higher than the current price.
Trading advice: If it stabilizes near the 1500-1530 pullback, you can lightly try going long, with a stop loss at $1,480 and a target of $1,580-1,600. Keep position light and strictly stop loss. Let's discuss in the comments, do you dare to catch the $1,500-1,530 range this time?👇
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Crypto ETF funds show divergence, institutions refocus on $BTC
The latest fund flows for US spot crypto ETFs show a clear divergence. On Wednesday, the Bitcoin spot ETF regained fund attention with a single-day net inflow of about $101 million, ending the previous continuous outflows. Among them, BlackRock IBIT contributed about $115 million, becoming the main source of funds.
In contrast, Ethereum and XRP spot ETFs both turned to net outflows. Ethereum had attracted funds for 12 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative inflow of about $1.62 billion, but the latest single-day outflow was about $48.08 million. XRP also ended 11 consecutive days of net inflows, with a single-day outflow of about $7.2 million. Solana ETF also saw fund withdrawals.
Overall, this does not mean institutions are fully exiting the crypto market; it looks more like a phase of funds refocusing on Bitcoin. Facing market volatility and changes in interest rate expectations, Bitcoin, with stronger liquidity and higher market recognition, remains the institutional priority. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of about $3.52 billion in August, maintaining a strong capital base. $ETH $SOL #比特币再破80000美元 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 🚨 Violent Short Squeeze, But Don’t Ignore the Risks
$BTC surged from $76,204 to $81,770, while $ETH jumped from $2,355 to $2,530. The explosive green candles have boosted bullish sentiment—but this move appears largely driven by short covering rather than fresh capital inflows.
📈 Both assets are now approaching key resistance and short-term indicators look overbought.
⚠️ BTC resistance: $81,544–$81,770 | Support: ~$79,594
⚠️ ETH resistance: $2,518–$2,530 | Key support below Crypto Circle Midday Brief｜2026-09-04 #Waller: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September
Market @币圈超短王马大帅
BTC surged to 82000 then pulled back to around 81100; resistance at 82200, support at 79600. ETH rose to around 2510. Broad market rally, meme sector heat rebounds, greed index at 65.
Contracts
18.3 billion USD liquidated across the network in 24 hours, short stop-losses pushing the rise; BTC ETF saw slight net inflows, ETH ETF funds outflowing, high-level longs starting to take profits.
Macro & Industry
Fed officials lean dovish, expectations for a September rate hike cool down; US stocks closed higher boosting risk assets. Robinhood chain MEME coin heavily speculated, Japanese listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings show increased unrealized gains.
Brief commentary: After a short-term rapid rebound, a pullback is needed; avoid chasing highs, wait for pullback confirmation to observe direction.