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#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
I'm actually not too concerned whether this non-farm payroll report is bullish or bearish.
When the data explodes, market volatility is high; when the data weakens, volatility is also high. No matter which direction it goes, there is arbitrage space within the grid range. Whether the bad news is fully priced in or employment warms up, the one-sided market is left for those betting on direction; what I want is price oscillation.
ADP's 44,000 is indeed weak, and initial jobless claims have been below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, the data conflicts. Cook said preparations for action are underway, and the market is still pricing in a 56.7% chance of a rate hike in September. The macro theme has shifted from "weak employment driving rate cuts" to "can weak employment suppress inflation." Direction is uncertain, volatility is certain, and the grid strategy fits perfectly.
$SNDK SanDisk grid is still running, price oscillating between 1300 and 1400, the lower bound of the range at 1219 hasn't been broken, the grid keeps capturing spreads. No matter what the non-farm number is, as long as volatility increases, the grid can capture multiple rounds. When it falls, the grid buys at the lower bound; when it rises, it sells at the upper bound, both are profits.
So the more explosive the non-farm, the better, the larger the amplitude, the better. Rising or falling is fine, as long as the volatility is there. I don't judge the direction of rise or fall at this position; I just wait for the grid to automatically adjust. If it falls too much, there's a forced liquidation price at 935 as a safety net, so no need to panic for now. The greater the volatility, the more arbitrage opportunities, and the grid's returns will only increase.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound $BICO According to internal sources: the target price this time is 0.144$SPCX Today's increase was as high as 16%, with recent gains mainly coming from two sources:
On one hand, financial data eased market concerns. SpaceX's Q2 revenue reached about $7.8 billion, a significant year-on-year increase that exceeded market expectations, prompting investors to refocus on Starlink, aerospace business, and future AI infrastructure plans.
On the other hand, the market had previously worried about selling pressure from the unlock, but after the lock-up, capital was strongly absorbed, resulting in a trend of "negative news taking effect" and rising. This time, about 900 million shares were unlocked to increase circulating supply, but market sentiment did not worsen further.
Looking at the price trend:
In the short term, watch support near $120; if funds continue to flow in, there is a chance to challenge previous resistance levels:
* $130-135: Near the IPO offering price, also a key psychological resistance level
* Around $150: Previously trapped market; a breakout requires stronger catalysts
* Above $180: Requires further fulfillment of long-term expectations such as Starlink commercialization and AI business implementation
On the risk side, SpaceX's valuation remains high, with huge investments in AI infrastructure. There will be upcoming share unlocks and profit pressures, so caution is needed about profit-taking after price spikes.
Overall, SPCX is currently in a news recovery + capital replenishment phase, with a short-term strength, but to truly unlock upside potential, profitability improvement and new growth expectations from AI/Starlink business are needed.
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? $XRP this trip, "it's really far, Mr. Teacher".
After the decision not to put the Clarity Act to a vote in the Senate before the August 10 recess, the SEC also refused to arrange "a special agreement" related to the lawsuit with #Ripple that made the court's previous ruling (declaring XRP not a stock) more fragile than ever. XRP will continue to "live in anxiety" at least until the Clarity Act is fully passed by the US Congress (a vote is expected after the congressional recess).
A "cross-border payments" token with a capitalization in the Top 10 largest coins in the world, now has to rely on "the favor of Clarity to survive". OMG.
There are still "support accounts" for this "Premium Memecoin" with news such as: Mastercard has started integrating XRPL into payment activities ??? WT... When did Mastercard announce this? XRP news at the moment: Cooperation/integration in... /low-cost payments ..... It is only considered information for fun, it does not have the effect of saving the price of $XRP
The only thing #Riple can do now to save $XRP is a powerful token burn mechanism, only by reducing the supply can grow.
Are "they" strong enough to "burn their own money out of their own pockets"???
Let's wait and see!
#Rippe_Burned XRPOne economic report tonight could shape the market's next major move.
For weeks, investors have debated whether the U.S. economy is cooling enough to convince the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates. Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may provide the clearest answer yet.
A weaker-than-expected ADP employment report has already lowered expectations to around 70,000–80,000 new jobs—the softest forecast of the year. However, there's an important contradiction: initial jobless claims have remained below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, suggesting that while hiring is slowing, employers are still holding on to workers.
That makes tonight's payroll data especially significant.
If the report comes in below expectations, it could reinforce the case for Fed rate cuts, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar while supporting assets like gold and Bitcoin. On the other hand, a stronger-than-expected reading could revive inflation concerns, push Treasury yields higher, and weigh on stocks and other risk assets.
With so much riding on a single release, markets are already positioning for heightened volatility ahead of the announcement.
#AIMemoryBullTest
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
#SpaceXUnlockRebound "The critical showdown for the 8/7 Nonfarm Payrolls is tonight"
Tonight at 8:30 PM, the Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released, marking a crucial showdown for the Nonfarm report.
What is the likely outcome of this data tonight?
Will it be positive or will it suppress btc, eth?
I'll be straightforward with my judgment: it will be positive, and it must be positive.
Why am I so certain?
Let's first review the fundamentals. Currently, U.S. employment is basically supported entirely by the service sector.
Remember the small Nonfarm report released on Wednesday? The new jobs added were only 44,000. What level is this?
In June, the service sector added 96,000 jobs, so this is basically a 50% cut. Compared to last year, the same period added 74,000 jobs, so the growth has also dropped by 40%.
What's more interesting is that out of these 44,000 new jobs, 36,000 came from the education and healthcare sectors. Many other service industries show weak hiring intentions, indicating a direct cooling in service sector activity.
So where do you think tonight's big Nonfarm data can shine?
Another factor is that last month's employment data included a large number of temporary jobs created by the World Cup. Now that the event ended in July, these short-term jobs will naturally exit, which will somewhat drag down the overall employment data, causing some weakness. This is the reality.
Having covered the fundamentals, let's talk about the political logic.
In November this year, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, and the date is approaching. From Trump's perspective, he definitely wants to deliver a solid economic report card to secure voter support.
If the stock market and residents' income perform weakly, that would be a major negative for the election.
Trump has publicly stated that he hopes to see interest rate cuts implemented.
In the previous election, Powell's rate cuts helped Trump's opponent, and Trump has held a grudge ever since.
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound 🚨 Oil prices, war, the Federal Reserve: the global market is waiting for a breakthrough
Recent developments in the Middle East have caused volatility in the energy market, but financial markets remain focused on the direction of the US dollar and interest rates �
Reuters
My viewpoint:
Many people believe war = market crash.
In fact, historical data shows:
Short-term panic, long-term focus on liquidity.
If the dollar weakens, risk assets may rise again.
BTC may become a safe haven for some funds. $BTC #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻, oil price risks are heating up again Non-farm payroll news! Major positive news!
The US unemployment rate was 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%, and the previous value was also 4.2%. This figure itself is not bad; in fact, it can even be said to be slightly better. But the market will not focus solely on the unemployment rate; the real focus tonight is nonfarm payrolls. The market consensus expects about 80,000 new jobs, compared to the previous 57,000. The unemployment rate falling from 4.2% to 4.1% indicates the labor market is still tightening, not relaxing. The job market remains tight, and the Fed's confidence in raising interest rates is actually stronger. For BTC, this is a hawkish signal.
What does a 4.1% unemployment rate mean for BTC?
A decline in unemployment means the economy has not yet entered a recession; companies are still hiring, and the job market remains tight. This gives the Fed no reason to cut rates, nor will it stop it. On Thursday, the ISM manufacturing PMI surged to 55.6, a four-year high, and now the unemployment rate is below expectations. Both major data points in one direction: the US economy remains resilient. The Fed can fully maintain high interest rates or even tighten further. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September remains around 54.5%, and after the unemployment rate is released, this figure is unlikely to decline.
Nonfarm payroll data is the real focus of tonight
Now let's see where the actual number of new jobs falls in this range. The unemployment rate has already been revealed early, with a hawkish trend taking the lead.
With new additions below 60,000, data weakening across the board, combined with the structural contradiction of declining unemployment, the market will first trade the "economic cooling" logic. The probability of a rate hike in September will decline, the dollar will weaken, and BTC will break upward in the short term. Volume will break above 65,000 and hold, chase long, stop loss below 64,300, target 66,000 to 66,500.
An increase of 60,000 to 100,000 is within the expected range. BTC is very likely to rally and pull back. Some holding positions are reducing their positions near 65,000 to 65,300 when the price is high. It's not recommended to chase rallies or buy downs—wait until the data is digested before making a move.
With new additions exceeding 110,000, employment data far exceeding expectations, and a falling unemployment rate, the market will directly price a rate hike in September. BTC faces pullback pressure, with increased volume breaking below 64,300. Short positions follow, stop loss above 65,200, targeting 63,500 to 63,000.
How to operate before the data is released
The unemployment rate is already slightly hawkish, which is not good news for bulls. The market is flat near 64,750, only 250 points away from 65,000, but at this level, both bulls and bears are watching and waiting. Don't heavily bet on direction before the data. Wait until the new nonfarm payroll numbers come out before acting, set stop-losses, and follow after the direction is clear. Nonfarm payrolls are just a preliminary battle; next week's CPI will be the real verdict. No matter how things move tonight, it's just a short-term fluctuation.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK SpaceX's rise after the unlock-up shows that the market's real concern has never been "someone selling the stock," but "whether there is enough buyer to believe in future growth."
This trend is actually quite interesting.
Before the lock-up was lifted, the market had already priced in the worst-case scenario.
Many investors worry that after the first batch of restricted shares is released, a large number of early shareholders and employees may cash out, and the new supply will directly push the stock price down. After all, the scale of this unlocking is not small, with about 911.5 million shares entering the tradable range, and the market was generally concerned about short-term selling pressure.
But the result was the opposite.
On the day of the lock-up, SpaceX's stock price did not drop sharply but actually rose about 6%, indicating the market's answer was: negative news had materialized, but funds did not choose to flee.
Why?
I believe there are two core reasons.
First, the market has already priced in the anticipation of the lifting of the lockdown.
Often, the most common mistake in investing is seeing a certain negative sign and assuming the price will definitely fall.
But if everyone knows this negative news, it often appears in the price in advance.
SpaceX had previously pulled back from its peak, and the market was trading in "earnings uncertainty + unlocking pressure + high capital expenditure risk," so when the event actually happened, selling pressure was not as strong as imagined.
Second, funds are starting to refocus on long-term stories.
SpaceX's first financial report reported revenue of about $7.8 billion, up about 90% year-on-year, with losses better than market concerns had previously held.
But what the market really cares about isn't how much money this quarter will earn, but rather the question:
Can high capital investment lead to the next phase of growth?
Especially in areas like AI infrastructure, satellite networks, and space computing.
If these investments can form a new revenue growth curve in the future, then the current high capital expenditure is not a burden but a process that must be undergone during the expansion phase.
But if the AI aerospace business fails to deliver in a few years, the market will reassess valuations.
So I won't simply interpret SpaceX's rise as "the unlocking and bearish news is over, so you can blindly go long."
For growth stocks, the most dangerous times are often not losses, but the market giving them overly high expectations in advance.
My observations focus on three signals:
First, let's see if revenue growth can maintain high growth in the coming quarters.
Second, see whether AI-related investments translate into real commercial value, rather than simply increasing costs.
Third, observe whether the market's ability to absorb the market will continue after the next rounds of unlocking are completed.
This is a common problem for many highly valued tech companies:
The capital market is willing to pay for the future, but only if it truly delivers.
So when faced with this situation of "the market unanimously worries, the price actually rises," I won't chase the rally directly.
My approach is more inclined to wait for the market to prove the logic.
If the rise comes from genuine earnings improvement, you can continue to pay attention;
If the sentiment rebounds only after the lock-up ends, then fundamentals will return later.
The lesson SpaceX offers the market this time might be:
The real negative news isn't the lifting of restrictions, but rather the inability to continue the growth story.
What will determine SpaceX's valuation next is not how many shares are still available for sale, but whether these high-investment projects can create the next growth cycle.
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? $SPCX $BONK Is BONK about to go to zero?
Short-term: Likely to continue friction in the 0.0000023-0.0000026 range. News of Upbit's delisting just broke, but panic hasn't fully digested yet. Before the October 7 withdrawal deadline, there may be another wave of selling.
Mid-term: BONK's fundamentals actually have a "hidden positive" — the token is now 100% fully circulated. There is no subsequent unlocking and selling pressure, which is stronger than many projects. But meme coins don't look at fundamentals; they focus on heat and liquidity. Upbit's delisting directly shut down South Korea's largest liquidity pool; a short-term turnaround is harder than reaching the sky.$BONK Three underlying currents, all cutting off retail investors!
Controversy One: DAO governance loopholes are a "legitimate robbery channel"! 1% voting threshold, no time lock, no multi-signature review—this mechanism is not to protect the community, but to open a backdoor for attackers. The attacker spent $4.4 million to buy votes and stole 20 million in treasury assets—this ROI is much higher than crypto trading.
Conspiracy Two: Upbit Delisting = Complete Liquidity Cut Off for Korean Retail Investors! Upbit is South Korea's largest exchange, and BONK/KRW is one of BONK's most important fiat trading pairs. Korean retail investors' FOMO once pushed BONK to the skies, but now that Upbit has closed its doors, who still dares to take over? Investors are closely watching whether other Korean exchanges will follow suit.
Conspiracy 3: BONK is "the weakest among meme coins"! Over the past month, DOGE and SHIB have both fallen by single digits, while BONK has dropped 30.5%. While others are trading sideways for meme coins, BONK is in free fall. There are always better targets in the market.$BONK $20 million in "legal open robbery"—this is the root of all the problems!
In early July, an attacker launched a textbook-level attack using Solana's Realms governance platform:
· Low voting threshold: BONK has a circulating supply of 88 trillion tokens, with a 1% voting threshold of about 880 billion tokens
· $4.4 million in ticket buying: The attacker bought 882.285 billion BONK on exchanges like Binance and Bybit, just enough to meet the quorum
· 7 addresses voted: Only 7 addresses participated in the entire process, while addresses controlled by the attackers contributed 99.878% of the votes in favor
· 4.426 trillion stolen: About $20 million worth of BONK was transferred out of the treasury without time locks or multisignature review
After succeeding, the attacker quickly sold off, cashing out about $13.58 million. From theft to liquidation, BONK's price fell from 0.0000047 to 0.0000027, a cumulative decline of 41%. By July 20, the attacker had fully liquidated all holdings, with the last 400 billion BONK dumped into Coinbase.
The mine laid a month ago finally exploded today. Upbit listed BONK as a warning asset on July 7, and a month later, it was officially sentenced to death. The company that is best at accounting has moved billions in debt out of everyone's sight
Tonight, everyone is watching the nonfarm payrolls, and there's a piece of news on Wall Street that hardly anyone is sharing. The Financial Times said Jane Street is negotiating a private credit deal with institutions like Pimco, planning to move about $11 billion of debt from the public market into private instruments.
This sounds technical, but it's quite interesting when you break it down. For publicly issued bonds, you have to regularly disclose your financial status to a large number of creditors, and you have to submit your assignments every quarter. After transferring to private credit, the number of investors drops from hundreds or thousands to just a few, and disclosure requirements shrink along with it. Another reason given in the report is that this gives companies more flexibility when investing in AI infrastructure—the data center sector.
Veteran players should know what makes Jane Street. It has long been one of the world's most profitable trading institutions, but also the least liked to be seen by others. In recent years, its name has been common in the crypto world, from ETF authorized participants to various market-making seats. Now, at this moment, it has moved billion-yuan debt out of the spotlight.
The timing is the key. In the past month or so, the chain of AI loans has been stretching ever longer: SoftBank used OpenAI shares as collateral to borrow 10 billion, Blackstone is preparing up to 36 billion for Anthropic to buy Google chips, and Alphabet issued 25 billion in bonds attracting 115 billion in subscriptions. Money seems to be no shortage.
But the bond market has already started to change. One data center company withdrew from a record 1 billion euro bond issuance in mid-July and turned to banks for negotiations; Of the last three data center-related CMBS, two were forced to expand pricing; Over the past year, the risk premiums for these assets have risen across the board. Some have started valuing AI data centers based on office and retail property logic, worried about too many buildings, too concentrated tenants, and rapid technology obsolescence.
So the scene becomes a bit tangled. On one hand, the financing scale keeps piling up; on the other, the best at accounting quietly cut back on the parts they need to explain. Borrowing a lot isn't a problem in itself; borrowing a lot while dimming the lights is what makes people want to take a second look.
What about us? The nonfarm payroll came out at -23,000, the June figure was revised downward, and the unemployment rate actually dropped. Bitcoin hovered around 65,000 before stopping, and the implied volatility on the upside still hovered near a historic low, with few bets placed at either end.
I want to ask, when a sum of money decides to be returned from the open market to a handful of people, is it because it feels more relaxed, or because it doesn't want too many people to see what happens next? What do you think?$MSTR's single-day trading volume surpassed Dell and returned to the top 25 US stocks, sharply intensifying the competition between open orders and high-frequency funds. The spot pool is experiencing massive turnover of chips, with the core suspense being whether turnover rate can support the current valuation premium.
The rise in liquidity ladders has provided a foundation for large-value spot trading depth, with intraday turnover already surpassing traditional tech giants.
Arbitrage funds in derivatives and spot markets are dominating short-term market pricing. The liquidity premium of large-cap targets combined with high-frequency algorithmic strategies chasing short-term beta has jointly boosted trading activity.
The concentration of high-frequency funds in high-beta hubs forms a direct correlation with the depth of buying orders.
If daily trading volume can consistently rank among the top 25 in US stocks and the turnover rate remains stable, continuous buying will further absorb selling pressure above and push up valuations; if trading volume falls out of the top 50, this path will be declared invalid.
If high-frequency funds quickly withdraw after a period of profit, causing a significant shrinkage in turnover, the sharply reduced liquidity will quickly amplify downward volatility and fill previous liquidity gaps. If spot order depth doubles against the trend, it signals that this path has failed.
If trading volume remains within the top 25 but fails to drive price direction, it indicates that the logic of high-frequency liquidity drivers is weakening, and market dominance will return to the capital flows of passive index funds.
The most noteworthy variable in the next seven days is whether $MSTR's daily trading volume can continue to rank within the top 25 US stock market rankings.
#财报观察员: After the lock-up was lifted, SpaceX rebounded—what is the outlook on SpaceX's future? #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效, clear boundaries between trading and payments #黄金4200美元拉锯. Why didn't BTC follow the rise?美联储降息窗口打开？真正的关键不是就业变差，而是经济开始变冷
美国就业市场正在出现一个微妙变化
过去几个月，美联储一直被通胀牵制，而现在，压力开始慢慢转向就业端。
最新数据显示，美国7月ADP私营就业仅增加4.4万人，明显低于市场预期，同时创下近半年最低增幅。
这个数字释放出的信号很直接：企业招聘正在放缓。
但问题在于，美国就业并没有出现快速恶化。
截至8月1日当周，美国初请失业金人数仍维持在19.9万人附近，连续第三周低于20万人；二季度非农商业部门劳动生产率增长1.4%，单位劳动力成本增长1.3%，说明企业依然有一定承压能力。
所以现在市场真正交易的，并不是“美国就业崩了吗”。
答案显然不是。
真正的问题是，经济降温的速度，是否足以让美联储重新考虑降息。
近期美联储官员释放出的信号也更加复杂。一方面，部分官员开始关注就业压力；另一方面，只要通胀没有完全回到目标水平，美联储就不会轻易转向。
这也是为什么9月会议重新成为市场焦点。
我的看法是，美联储现在面对的是一道平衡题。
如果就业只是温和降温，而通胀继续下降，那么降息可能顺势到来；但如果就业放缓只是短暂现象，或者能源、工资再次推高价格，美联储仍可能保持谨慎。
对于资产市场来说，真正重要的不是一次就业数据，而是未来几个月的数据方向。
降息预期升温，对股票、黄金、加密资产都是支撑；但如果经济放缓速度超过预期，市场逻辑也会从“期待降息”转向“担忧衰退”。
现在，美联储等待的不是一个漂亮的数据，而是一个确定的趋势。
接下来非农和CPI，将决定9月到底是开启宽松周期，还是继续等待。
价格最终会反映答案。市场赌的不是降息本身，而是美国经济能否完成一次软着陆。
$BICO $SNDK $SPCX
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ 8.7 Golden Midnight Review
Nonfarm payroll data weighed on the weaker dollar, and gold surged all the way to 4371, achieving all the upside targets we anticipated in advance.
From the market perspective, the 30-minute Bollinger Bands remain open upward, with gold firmly holding the upper Bollinger Band; Indicators have gradually fallen from the overheated zone back to normal levels, and the overall bullish pattern remains unshaken. The slight short-term pullback is merely a way to absorb the gains from the day's sharp rise and cannot be considered a market reversal.
Resistance levels: 4372, 4390
Support levels: 4338, 4320
Operational Approach
Once the price falls back to the 4300-4325 range, you can enter Dodan. The first target is 4350, and the next is 4370.
Note: Silk Road is for reference only. Expectations may change at any time. Please manage your risk for $XAU $MINIMAX What is the next step for the dog farm?
Short term: highly likely to experience severe fluctuations in the 38-50 range. The biggest variable is the Hong Kong Stock Connect dividend + AI sector explosion—continued southbound capital inflows may continue to rally the market, and the retreat of FOMO could instantly break through.
Mid-term: MiniMax's fundamentals are indeed solid—300 million users, over 300 million ARR, and the number one open source M2.7 model. But with a valuation of about $20 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of about 250 times, core shareholders' lock-up unlock is a sword hanging over the table. These targets have thinner liquidity than mainstream coins, wider spreads, and more variable funding costs. They rise fiercely and fall even harder—don't treat them like mainstream coins.
---
The final heartfelt words:
MINIMAX is at 42 today, with the underlying Hong Kong stock surging 25%, the Hong Kong Stock Connect taking effect, and the H3 model topping the charts—positive news piling up. But on July 8, core shareholders lifted their lock-up, various exchanges posted an 8x difference, and the price-to-sales ratio reached 250 times—all three major dangers are right there. At 42, bulls fear the unlock will crash the market, while bears fear southbound funds will keep pushing prices up. Hold your hands tight, wait until the direction becomes clearer before making your move! Remember, staying in the crypto world for a long time is ten thousand times more important than making a lot! Meeting adjourned!Sudden drop in yields and a sharp drop in opportunity costs: Why did I just choose to increase my gold position?
At 8:30 tonight, the brutal report of 23,000 contractions in nonfarm payrolls was released, and the nominal yield on the 10-year US Treasury instantly plunged sharply. I stared at the screen, not chasing those highly volatile tech stocks. Instead, I quietly pulled up the real yield model for gold and decisively increased my spot gold position near $4,280.
The trading decision behind this is very simple: a hardcore mathematical calculation of the opportunity cost of interest-free assets.
I analyzed not long ago that gold's adjustment from $5,600 to $4,300 was not due to loss of safe-haven properties, but because the nominal yield on U.S. Treasuries stubbornly held around 4.68%, pushing the inflation-adjusted "real interest rate" to a high of 2.5% real risk-free yield. The opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset, is too high; gold can only bow its head and exhale a premium.
But the recent nonfarm payroll data bomb completely shattered the market's hopes of raising interest rates.
When nominal yields plunge rapidly within minutes, and inflation expectations remain largely unchanged due to negative nonfarm payroll growth, there is only one outcome: gold's real interest rate is slapped down in an instant.
This meant that, in a very short time, the opportunity cost weighing on gold was mercilessly cut in half. This was my first reaction to increase my position in gold. Gold hasn't changed, nor has geopolitical friction, but the real interest rates supporting gold pricing have shifted, so the pull for gold's return to mean is instantly reversed.
However, this round of increased positions is not a case of blindly taking positions.
Although real interest rates have plunged favorably, the CPI inflation data to be released next week will be the final judge. If next week's CPI data remains rigid, or if nominal U.S. Treasury yields quickly stabilize and rebound at the 10-year 4.5% level after the plunge, gold's real yields will rebound.
Therefore, my earlier increase in position set a very precise protection position. If the 10-year nominal government bond yield pulls back above 4.65%, it means this is just a data illusion, and I will not hesitate to close out this spot gold long position and regain protection.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Conclusion first: I remain optimistic about the medium- to long-term logic of SanDisk (SNDK) and Marvell (MRVL), but at this stage, I would not directly define the sideways stock price fluctuations as "institutions are already accumulating positions." A more accurate description would be: after the previous rapid deleveraging and valuation compression, these two stocks are entering a phase of chip rebalancing and beginning to show some capital support, but whether institutions have formed sustained net buying still requires further confirmation.
From the price structure perspective, the biggest difference from the previous continuous one-sided decline is that selling no longer manifests as sustained price loss of control. SNDK and MRVL have recently maintained significant intraday volatility, but after each rapid sell-off, there is some degree of buying support, rather than several consecutive trading days of unresisted new lows.
This is a relatively healthy change but cannot yet be equated directly with "institutional accumulation."
True institutional accumulation usually requires several clearer characteristics: gradually decreasing volume during pullbacks, key lows no longer continuously moving lower, relative resilience compared to the sector on weak trading days, and significantly stronger active volume on up days than down days. If these features persist, the judgment weight on "chips shifting from short-term funds to medium- and long-term funds" can be gradually increased.
On fundamentals, I continue to be bullish on both companies.
SanDisk's latest quarterly revenue was about $8.96 billion, exceeding market expectations by approximately 6.8%; adjusted EPS was $39.25, beating expectations by about 13.7%. The previous sharp stock price decline mainly reflected the market's repricing of extremely high growth expectations, NAND price sustainability, and future profit margins, rather than a sudden deterioration in company fundamentals. Currently, Wall Street analysts remain clearly bullish overall, and the upcoming Investor Day on August 13 will be a key catalyst to reassess long-term profitability and the sustainability of the data center business.
Marvell's logic is more focused on AI data center infrastructure. The company’s Q1 revenue reached a record $2.418 billion, up 28% year-over-year, with next quarter revenue guidance midpoint around $2.7 billion, corresponding to about 35% YoY growth. Management also stated that AI-related orders remain exceptionally strong and raised revenue outlooks for the next two fiscal years. As long as major cloud providers do not significantly cut AI capital expenditures, optical interconnects, Ethernet switches, custom XPUs, and data center interconnects will continue to provide strong medium- to long-term growth support for MRVL.
Therefore, I currently prefer to interpret the movements of SNDK and MRVL as:
Rapid valuation cuts → leverage and short-term chip release → market reassessment of fundamentals → bullish and bearish funds begin to seek balance again at lower price levels.
News flow is also an important cause of the current volatility. Weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls reduced the probability of further Fed rate hikes but simultaneously triggered concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth; the semiconductor sector itself is still digesting previously very high AI growth expectations. Thus, capital has neither formed the previous panic-driven one-sided sell-off nor has enough confidence to directly launch a V-shaped reversal.
This actually aligns more with a "repricing phase" characteristic.
Going forward, I will not blindly assume institutions are accumulating just because of price volatility but will focus on observing: whether the decline continues with shrinking volume, whether key lows can hold, whether relative strength emerges in a weak market, and whether the breakout phase is accompanied by real volume expansion.
If these conditions gradually materialize, then the current volatile zone is more qualified to be defined as a medium- to long-term capital accumulation area; if lows continue to move lower, rebounds shrink in volume, and every positive news is quickly sold off, it indicates chips have not stabilized and we need to wait for a true bottom structure to form.
Therefore, my long-term view remains bullish, but the short-term judgment is revised from "institutions have already accumulated" to:
Fundamental logic is intact, valuations have undergone significant compression, high-volatility chip rebalancing is underway with signs of support emerging; whether it has truly entered a phase of sustained institutional accumulation still requires further confirmation of volume-price structure. $SNDK $MRVL #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 看仔细了——我的左手正在空中挥舞着霍尔木兹海峡的联合声明草案，而我的右手，早已悄悄撕碎了你们对通胀熄火与降息的一切幻想。
在我的职业生涯里，最经典的欺诈魔术永远不是凭空变出白鸽，而是**视觉误导（Misdirection）**。当全世界的散户都在盯着舞台中央“伊朗与阿曼达成新航道初步理解”那块闪闪发光的霓虹招牌时，后台的庄家早已在暗处完成了最狠辣的洗牌。
你以为你看到了和平与通航的曙光？戏法可不是这么演的。
看看戏法背后的真正手法吧。“签署”不过是用来吸引观众注意力的彩带，真正的陷阱隐藏在“执行”的每一道机关里。美国制裁的锁链还没解开，过路费支付限制像一道看不见的暗锁，再加上战时风险条款引发的合规与保险崩塌，伊朗议会甚至还在琢磨着抽紧过境规则的绞索——这哪是什么海峡通航协议？这分明是一场标准的**“双重底牌”（Double Lift）换牌术**！庄家翻给你看的是一张代表“局势缓和”的红心A，但暗中抽走你全部筹码的，却是一张写满“原油受阻”的黑桃K。
只要波斯湾的运力继续被这套复杂的机关卡死，原油这个死而复生的魔鬼就会再次从魔术帽里跳出来，把通胀狠狠地塞回美联储的喉咙里。到了那个时候，所有的利率定价模型都会像镜花水月一样轰然碎裂。
至于美股Token标的 $XSPCX ，不过是这场大型幻象中最为敏感的“视觉感应道具”。主力资金正在利用地缘政治的烟雾弹，在 $XSPCX 与加密大盘之间频繁进行砸盘诱空与拉高诱多的手法迫牌。你在屏幕前看着红红绿绿的K线，以为自己在根据新闻做理性决策，其实你每一次按下的指令，都是庄家精心设计好的**心理强迫选择（Forced Choice）**。他们只需要微微转动霍尔木兹海峡的闸门，就能在金融市场引出一场滔天巨浪，将看错方向的散户洗得干干净净。
牌局的真正牌面早已揭晓：这不是危机的终结，而是一场更大规模砸盘与收割的序幕。
当白鸽飞出帽子、舞台烟雾散去的那一刻，你兜里原本属于你的筹码，早已变成了庄家口袋里的筹码。
#HormuzDealHitsHurdles 📉 $SNDK: Why Did the Stock Fall After a Huge Earnings Beat?
At first glance, the reaction looks confusing.
Q4 Revenue: $8.965B
Market Estimate: ~$8.4B
That's a significant beat.
So why did $SNDK sell off?
The answer is simple:
Markets trade expectations, not just results.
1️⃣ Good News Was Already Priced In
Sandisk delivered an impressive quarter, but investors were already expecting exceptional numbers after the stock's massive rally.
When expectations become extremely high, even excellent earnings can trigger “sell the news” behavior.
2️⃣ Forward Guidance Matters More Than the Rear-View Mirror
The real question for investors was:
“What's next?”
Sandisk guided fiscal Q1 revenue to approximately $10.3B-$10.8B, with the midpoint slightly below Wall Street's expectations.
So the market saw:
✅ Excellent Q4
⚠️ Very high expectations
⚠️ Forward guidance not strong enough to create another major upside surprise
That combination can trigger profit-taking.
3️⃣ This Is Still a Highly Cyclical Memory Business
Memory and storage companies can experience powerful earnings cycles driven by pricing, supply, demand and capacity conditions.
When a cyclical stock has already experienced an enormous repricing, investors become much more sensitive to signs that growth or margins may be approaching a peak.
4️⃣ The Market Doesn't Reward “Good Enough”
This is one of the most important lessons in trading:
Beat expectations → not necessarily bullish.
If the market expected a huge beat and the company delivers only a normal beat, traders can still sell.
Price reacts to the difference between expectations and reality, not simply whether the numbers are objectively good.
$SNDK #SNDK #Stocks #StockMarket #Earnings #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #Semiconductors #AICrypto Daily — August 7, 2026
$BTC above $65K, weak employment data dampened rate hike expectations, but stablecoin profits increasingly resemble bank statements, shifting the market's focus from rebound trading to "who controls cash flow."
1. Tether's Q2 net operating profit was about $1.5 billion, reserves about $4.11 billion, and USDT circulating supply rose to about $184.6 billion; The stablecoin business continues to shift from an on-chain tool to a "bank-like cash flow machine."
2. US July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23K, far below the expected increase of 83K, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping to about 44%; $BTC pushed slightly to around $65K, with short-term easing of macro interest rate pressure.
3. OKX/$OKB: $OKB up +2.7% today, price about $88.55, trading volume about $24.1 million, clearly leading among platform coins.
4. Ethereum community controversy erupted over EIP-8363: The proposal discussed gradually reducing staking rewards to zero once the staking ratio rose to 50%; SharpLink CEO and Aave founder both expressed opposition, arguing it could weaken ETH's native yield and institutional appeal.
5. Ali Martinez said TD Sequential, the 50-month moving average, and Chande Oscillator signals indicate a macro bottom for $BTC, with weekly ETF inflows of about $754 million; However, there is still selling pressure on the corporate side, with MARA selling 726 BTC and Bhutan transferring about 434.87 BTC.
6. $M (Mantis) rose +66.7% in 24 hours, becoming today's strongest altcoin; However, trading volume was about $0.38 M, still a small-cap with high elasticity rally, with higher chasing risk.
7. Altcoins: $SPCXB, $BTW, $H, $LIT rose +15.6% / +12.8% / +11.9% / +10.0% respectively, with heat concentrated in tokenized stocks, BTC ecosystem, human identity, and trading infrastructure sectors; Among them, $SPCXB had a trading volume of about $158.4 million, with the highest short-term capital participation.
Market conditions
$BTC currently $65,006 (+0.9%); $ETH currently $1,917.05 (+0.4%).
$OKB +2.7%, platform coins are generally differentiated, with OKB leading the gains.
Brief review the next day
$BTC bullish probability is 57/100, bearish 43/100; altcoin sentiment continues to recover, but strength is concentrated in tokenized assets, the BTC ecosystem, and small-cap themes, with a broad rally yet unconfirmed.
Expected tomorrow
$BTC fluctuation range is -1.3% to +2.2%, with the key focus on $65K. If it holds above $65K, it can continue to test $66.8K–$68K; If it falls below $64K, it may return to the $62.8K–$63.5K defensive zone in the short term.$CAP 狗庄下一步怎么割？
短期：大概率在0.025-0.040区间继续摩擦。Upbit上线FOMO已兑现，利好出尽就是利空。0.036守不住，下方就是0.028-0.025。
中期：Cap基本面确实硬——富兰克林邓普顿站台、TVL约2.5亿、借贷协议排名第二。但85%代币未解锁、Stabledrop信任危机、TVL腰斩——三座大山压着，想重回0.04比登天还难。
有交易员说得透彻：“上涨的时候别太兴奋，回调的时候也别太慌”。0.0366这位置，你以为是在抄底，实际上是在给0.042追高的冤魂当解放軍。管住手，等方向明朗再动手！ 记住，在币圈活得久，比赚得多重要一万倍！散会！MSTR's single-day turnover surpassed Dell and returned to the top 25 US stocks, indicating that high-frequency liquidity is concentrating on large-cap, high-beta hubs. The core issue is whether capital turnover can support valuation premiums.
Entering the top 25 US stocks by trading volume marks the liquidity ladder, indicating that $MSTR spot trading depth now has the capability to support large-scale, high-frequency institutional gambling. The turnover scale has surpassed traditional tech giants like Dell, reflecting that arbitrage funds in derivatives and spot markets are dominating short-term market pricing.
The factors driving capital flows are, in order: liquidity premium effect of large-cap stocks, high-frequency algorithmic strategies chasing short-term beta, and concentrated release of spot arbitrage demand.
The upward scenario requires maintaining a stable position among the top 25 in US stocks in single-day trading volume without a cliff-like drop in turnover rate. Under these conditions, continuous buying from high-frequency funds will further deepen the buying order. If turnover continues to absorb selling pressure, prices will push higher valuation ranges, with a failure signal indicating trading volume dropping outside the top 50.
The trigger for a downward scenario is that high-frequency funds quickly withdraw after achieving temporary profits, resulting in a significant contraction in daily trading volume. If no new hedging demand emerges in the derivatives market, a sharp drop in liquidity will amplify the downward beta, causing prices to quickly fill previous liquidity gaps, with the failure signal being spot order depth doubling against the trend.
If the overall trading volume decouples from valuation trends—that is, if trading volume remains in the top 25 but the price enters a long-term, directionless, narrow fluctuation—then the logic of high-frequency liquidity driving fails, and the market will once again be determined by the flow of funds from passive index funds.
In the next 7 days, it is important to watch whether $MSTR trading volume can remain within the top 25 US stock market rankings, as well as changes in the depth of orders placed by high-frequency turnover funds before and after the US market opens.
#财报观察员: After the lock-up was lifted, prices rebounded—what is SpaceX's outlook on going forward? #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard非农预期+8万，结果-2.3万，偏差拉满。
但比特币$BTC 没怎么动——公布前已经在65,000附近横盘，市场早就把预期吃干净了。数据出来后短时冲了下65,500，紧接着砸回64,800-65,000，典型的买预期卖事实。
以太坊$ETH 更弱，从1,880拉到1,950又回落到1,920附近，上方1,950-1,980抛压重重，明显比大饼软。
短线的朋友，利好兑现就是最危险的时候，冲高减仓别追，等回踩。日线多头结构还在，目标68-72K不变，但63,800不能破，62,400-62,500是底线。ETH若BTC站稳64K，有机会补涨到2,050-2,100；回踩则看1,880-1,900能否撑住。
宏观上，昨天FT放风沃什9月加息概率55%，非农一出直接崩盘。一面3.7%的通胀，一面-2.3万的就业，美联储双重使命撕到极致。但这恰恰是沃什想要的剧本——先鹰后鸽，数据逼着转向，谁也说不出什么。可油价还在高位，中东局势紧张，沃什要从单边抗通胀变成两头走钢丝，难度翻倍。接下来的美联储，才是真正见水平的时候。$CAP Upbit launches with nuclear power, but 84% of tokens remain unlocked!
The only positive news is this: on August 6, Upbit officially launched CAP, supporting three major markets: KRW, BTC, and USDT. This is the second Korean exchange after Bithumb to support CAP won trading. After the news broke, CAP surged about 15% to $0.027.
But fundamentals have three fatal flaws:
First, 84.4% of tokens have yet to be unlocked! The total supply of CAP is 10 billion, with only 1.56 billion currently in circulation. The unlock cycle runs from June 2026 to June 2030, with a total of 38 unlock events. Nearly 85% of the bullets in Gouzhuang's hands remain unfired.
Second, the Stabledrop trust crisis hasn't been digested! In July, Cap cut the Stabledrop airdrop from 11 million to 4.2 million. The founder publicly apologized, admitting that "promises were made too early under changes in the macro environment." Trust is broken; once it's broken, it's broken.
Third, TVL halved! TVL dropped from about $500 million at the start of 2026 to about $259 million, a 48% decline.Trump: No need for cash, you can pay with $BTC.
Recently, Trump stated in an interview that more and more people are using Bitcoin for payments, even "no longer caring about cash," and bluntly stated that cryptocurrency has become a big deal.
This is somewhat more like a policy signal.
The U.S. has previously established strategic Bitcoin reserves and advanced legislation on stablecoins and market structures, shifting policy focus from "whether to recognize crypto assets" to "how to incorporate them into the financial system."
However, everyday payments are still constrained by price fluctuations, tax treatments, and merchant acceptance; the ones truly closer to payment tools are stablecoins and the Lightning Network. Bitcoin entering the checkout counter is not something that 🤣 can be achieved with just a single word from Trump.
#CLARITY投票或延至9月, ethical differences remain unresolved 📊 $SNDK Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, short-term bears are being pinned down and rubbing wildly, but medium- to long-term bulls have directly collapsed...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $366,400, $83,300, $283,000
4 hours: $6.724 million, $5.2319 million, $1.4921 million
12 hours: $7.2964 million, $5.3189 million, $1.9775 million
24 hours: $10.1297 million, $7.3985 million, $2.7312 million
From $SNDK's liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with shorts outnumbering bulls at 3.4 times, with a fierce short squeeze at the start; then suddenly reversed in the 4-hour direction, with long liquidations crushing bears, bulls 3.5 times the shorts, and the bullish killing erupted across the board; the 12-hour bullish advantage continued to expand, about 2.7 times, with selling long positions running through the short to medium cycle; 24-hour long liquidations soared to $7.39 million, 2.7 times the shorts. Dog Maker completed a fierce turnaround from short squeeze to long selling on SNDK—short-term short chasers were targeted and blown up, medium- to long-term long chasers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $10.12 million. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 就业数据彻底“打架”！ADP爆冷4.4万，创下年内新低。
按理论来说：就业走弱，加息预期降温，黄金本该起飞。
盘面也确实冲高刺破4300，结果多头接力不足，直接摔回4250附近。
能不能守住4300关口、开启新一轮上行，今晚非农就是生死局。
搞笑的是，同一天初请失业金报19.9万，连续3周跌破20万，创2022年9月以来最低！
一边数据告诉我们就业要垮，另一边数据又显示就业韧性十足。
市场直接被两头拉扯。
高盛、巴克莱也出来解释：ADP参考性有限，容易被中小企业样本干扰。初请低位代表企业没有大规模裁员，只是不愿意招人，也就是市场说的「低招聘、低裁员」局面。
不光数据自相矛盾，美联储内部更是各说各话！
Cook放话通胀不降就准备出手；施密德觉得利率力度不够，仍要加息；贝森特又表态当下没必要加息。
三个人，三种立场。
CME显示9月加息概率55%，多空几乎对半开。
资产行情也走出魔幻现实：
$SNDK极度吃利率预期，营收同比暴增372%，毛利率84.6%，还抛出140亿回购，这么漂亮的成绩单，盘后反而暴跌7%。
再好的过往业绩没用，市场博弈的是未来的利率。
黄金$XAU逻辑最通顺：ADP走弱→加息预期回落→美元走弱，顺势冲4300，这一波完全在交易利率预期。
但$BTC就十分憋屈！
同样的宏观大环境，黄金冲高，它死死钉在6.4万原地踏步。
ETF资金明明在进场，8月6日单日净流入2.43亿美金，价格就是不动。
Coinbase溢价连续80天负值，美国机构在卖，亚洲资金在接。
美联储意见撕裂，降息预期和加息风险来回撕扯，BTC被困在区间反复磨人。
黄金在炒利率预期，BTC在等专属催化剂。
不是BTC不再跟随宏观，而是宏观本身就没有明确方向，资金不敢轻易押单边。
重点提醒：今晚非农，下周四CPI！
这两份重磅数据，将直接敲定9月要不要加息。
天才交易员狗总$ALLO 狗庄下一步怎么割？
短期：大概率在0.35-0.50区间剧烈震荡。8月11日解锁是最大变量——狗庄正在赶在解锁前拉高出货。
中期：Allora基本面确实硬——Polychain领投3500万、Forge平台已上线、140+合作伙伴。但流通仅25.5%，狗庄手里的筹码足够把价格砸穿。有分析指出：“能否有效站稳0.288到0.30区间更关键”。
最后一句掏心窝的话：
ALLO今天0.48，一周从0.245干上来几乎翻倍。DeAI+RWA叙事、Forge平台、Binance Square FOMO——利好堆成山。但各所差价30%、8月11日450万解锁、合约是现货8.5倍、FOMO跟单驱动非基本面——四颗雷全摆在那。有分析说得透彻：“ALLO这波涨势更像是交易员抱团推高，而不是基本面真的变好了”。0.48这位置，多头怕解锁砸盘，空头怕狗庄继续拉。管住手，等8月11日解锁利空出尽、等方向明朗再动手！ 记住，在币圈活得久，比赚得多重要一万倍！散会！📊 $ETH Liquidation Flash Report (August 8)
According to liquidation data, short-term longs were crushed hard, but long-term shorts suffered a massive bloodbath...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $858,800 $494,400 $364,400
4 hours $23,443,300 $4,388,700 $19,054,600
12 hours $28,465,400 $5,821,900 $22,643,500*
24 hours $30,585,000 $7,157,300 $23,427,700*
*Note: 12-hour and 24-hour short liquidations are calculated by subtracting long liquidations from total liquidations; original chart data is questionable.
From $ETH liquidation data, 1-hour long liquidations slightly exceed shorts, showing an initial directional signal but with a small gap; at 4 hours, the direction sharply reverses, with short liquidations crushing longs at 4.3 times the volume, triggering a full short squeeze; at 12 hours, the short advantage continues to widen to about 3.9 times, with the short squeeze spanning short to medium cycles; at 24 hours, short liquidations soar to $23.42 million, 3.3 times the longs. The bears on ETH have fiercely turned from long liquidation to short squeeze—the short-term longs were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term shorts were wiped out, with total liquidations exceeding $30.58 million. Shorts are bleeding heavily, and the short squeeze momentum is unstoppable. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a "fully priced expectations, flaws will be punished" phase—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be magnified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% in after-hours trading. The culprit was guidance—next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged about 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic "Bad News is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100 billion in market value. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new sell orders were effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. However, the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news is good news" scenario. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ 🚨 Nonfarm Delivery Shocks, Market Begins to Reprice!
Nonfarm payrolls in July were -23,000, far below the expected +80,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%.
Weak nonfarm payrolls = cooling employment = easing Fed pressure and rising expectations for rate cuts.
Market Impact:
🔥 BTC/ETH: Bullish side
Liquidity expectations are improving, and risk asset sentiment is likely to recover, but whether it can break through resistance levels still depends on whether funds follow suit.
🔥 AI storage: Slightly positive
$MU Growth tech stocks such as Micron, $SNDK, and SK Hynix have benefited from improved interest rate expectations, but the sector has recently shown clear divergence, and sustained gains depend on capital and earnings logic.
Personal opinion:
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are a positive signal, but the market may have already priced in some expectations.
Good news does not mean blindly chasing the rally; the more it rises, the more you need to be aware of the risks.
I will focus on high-level betting opportunities and look for short windows when sentiment overheats.
#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market stable? #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation? #财报观察员: After the lock-up rebounds, what is SpaceX's outlook? These past two days, the more I stared at the board, the more I felt something was off.
When trading storage tokens was before, everyone thought the market crashed because the earnings fell short of expectations. Looking back now, it's not about the financial report—it's just that leverage has retreated. In Korea, when they raised the margin requirement, daily trading volume was cut by 90%. The prices that were originally built up by retail investors and leverage naturally can't hold up.
The crypto world is actually the same. Have you noticed that no matter what good news comes out lately, the market always surges and then pulls back, unable to rise? It's not that there's no capital, it's that capital doesn't dare to leverage anymore. Futures open interest has rebounded for almost a month, less than half of last year's peak. Everyone has learned their lesson: they'd rather hold onto spot and wait their time than open a tenfold leveraged bet.
Recently, I stumbled on SanDisk, which was essentially a loss from leverage. When doubling, I thought I understood the trend and couldn't bear to leave, thinking I could still push further. But when the tide went out, I realized I wasn't even wearing swim trunks. Later, when I started Micron, I directly reduced leverage to 10 times, which actually made me feel much more at ease. It's okay to earn a bit slower; at least you won't wake up feeling the sky falls.
The most deceiving thing about this market is that in a bull market, the money you make through leverage makes you mistakenly believe it's your own skill. When the bear market comes, leverage will recoup the principal and interest again. Those who survive are never the bravest, but the ones who live the longest.
Have you all reduced your leverage recently? Or have you already cleared your positions and hid away?
$SNDK $MU $SKHY BTC/ETH: After the non-farm payrolls, first surge, then sell. Don't panic, this is a shakeout, not a peak. The data is out, and rate hike expectations are cooling down. Pricing in interest rate futures shows that by December, the rate hike has dropped from 32 basis points to 28 basis points. Weak nonfarm payrolls in July caused U.S. Treasury prices to soar. This combination of moves shows that the macro environment is moving toward easing—but BTC and ETH tend to rise first, then sharply decline. Many people panicked, thinking that "all good news is negative." I don't see it that way. First, let's explain why things take a sharp turn. Before the data was released, the market had already priced in some easing expectations in advance. BTC surged to 65,357, ETH jumped to 1,944, and short-term funds chose to take profits at the moment the data landed. This is a typical case of "buying expectations, selling facts"—not a trend reversal, but a short-term game market running around. Additionally, nonfarm payrolls themselves have contradictions (the unemployment rate of 4.1% was below expectations, but the revised downward revision of 103,000 indicates that employment is actually cooling), so the market is sharply diverged between bulls and bears, naturally causing sharp volatility. But looking at it in the long run, the direction is clear. First, expectations for rate hikes are genuinely cooling down. Dropping from 32bp to 28bp—don't underestimate these 4 basis points—it means the market's pricing in the Fed's tough hold on to rate hikes is loosening. The hawkish threats from Moussalem and Wash, when lowered to 100,000 + ADP of 44,000, are increasingly just empty talk. As long as employment continues to cool and rate hike expectations keep falling, the liquidity environment for risk assets is improving. Second, US Treasuries soar = yields are falling. U.S. Treasury prices rose, corresponding to long-term gains困得眼皮打架，实在盯不动了。
$SNDK 1195开了1个多单，随手在1222平掉0.96个，25.26U落袋，留了0.04个继续飘着。
关掉界面之后回头看了一眼，价格先弹到1218晃了一下。
然后又回到1223。
不过大部分已经走了，留的那点渣渣爱咋咋地。
这波平仓纯粹是因为困，跟技术分析一毛钱关系都没有。
$UB 今天又跌了22%，1小时图MACD绿柱深不见底，跟昨天BEAT一个模子刻出来的。
单边腰斩式出货，谁接谁死。
BEAT刚亏了151U的教训还在眼前，今天坚决不碰UB，哪怕它跌到地板上也不看一眼。
$XAU 那边倒是猛，从4216一路干到4370。
避险情绪抽走币圈资金，小票暴跌就不奇怪了。
大钱都往黄金里钻，这边剩下的人都在抢着跑，没人接盘。
深夜11点多了，流动性稀薄得很。
这个点开单，纯属给市场送钱。
不开新单了，也不去追那些反弹的妖币。
守住已有的利润，比什么都强。
困意上来了，剩下的明天再说。📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.08.07 (Friday)
📌 Core judgment
**The US non-farm payroll release at 20:30 tonight is the core event determining today's market direction. **On the other hand, SanDisk's earnings report is very strong, but its stock price continues to fall, further indicating that demand in the storage industry has not collapsed, but high valuations and overly optimistic expectations are being re-absorbed.
🔥 Today's highlights
(1) Whether nonfarm payrolls will decide whether interest rate hike trading will heat up again
The market expects about 80,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. Previously, ADP was weak, but initial jobless claims and corporate layoffs data did not deteriorate significantly, indicating that employment is more of a mild cooling rather than a sudden recession.
A more ideal outcome is an increase of 50,000–90,000 people and moderate wage cooling; If the increase significantly exceeds 120,000–150,000, U.S. Treasury yields and rate hike expectations may rise again; If growth approaches zero or even declines, caution should be warranted for a shift toward recessionary trading.
(2) SanDisk's fundamentals are strong, but the stock price is still falling
SanDisk fell about 6.8% on Thursday, at one point dropping more than 13% intraday. However, its data center and enterprise SSD businesses remain very strong, indicating that AI storage demand has not disappeared.
The real issue is: **Storage prices and stocks have risen too much before, and the market is starting to worry that the speed of NAND price increases and profit margins are nearing their peak. **So now is the time to trade according to the logic of "buy directly when demand is strong."
(3) Micron became the preferred observation target after the adjustment
Compared to pure NAND companies, Micron covers HBM, DRAM, and data center needs, increases order visibility through long-term customer agreements, and commits to strengthening cash returns.
If the storage sector continues to adjust, Micron is one of the more deserving companies to watch, but it still needs to wait for its stock price to stabilize; strong fundamentals should not be used to jump straight into the fray.
(4) Samsung and SK Hynix have seen new catalysts
Both companies have accumulated large amounts of cash thanks to AI memory, but their shareholder returns are currently lower than Micron's. The market has begun to demand higher dividends and share buybacks.
If Samsung or SK Hynix announce more aggressive buyback policies, even if storage prices stop rising, stock prices may recover through shareholder returns. Going forward, it is necessary to add the dividend and buyback policies of both companies to the next close observation.
(5) Changxin remains the supply variable for 2027–2028
Changxin continues to expand DRAM capacity, but in the short term, it will not cause immediate oversupply, as construction, equipment installation, and yield ramp-up will take time.
The real risk lies in 2027–2028: if Changxin, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all release new capacity and AI demand growth slows, DRAM may enter a price downturn again.
(6) A brief look at BTC and HYPE
BTC is at about $64,200, still under pressure at $65,000; HYPE is at about $54.8, with volatility continuing to outpace BTC. Before the non-farm payroll release, it's not suitable to make heavy positions or guess the direction; for highly elastic assets, leverage should be controlled.
Crude oil has rebounded to around $83.5, and the macro positive effects from this week's sharp drop are being discounted. If Brent breaks above $85–$90 again, tech, storage, and BTC will once again face inflation and interest rate pressures.
💡 My view
Demand in the storage industry remains strong, but the trading logic has shifted from "buy as soon as demand is confirmed" to "strong demand, reasonable valuation, and no overdraft of price increase expectations"—three conditions must be met simultaneously.
In short: tonight, the non-farm payroll will determine the macro direction; The storage sector continues to wait for valuations and chip digestion, with Micron currently more deserving of priority over pure NAND companies.#伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻, oil price risks are heating up again
Negotiations on navigation in the Ia of Hormuz suddenly stalled, Iran proposed legislation banning US and Israeli vessels from transit, and the US stated that the agreement had not been formally implemented. Previous market expectations for full shipping reopening were completely dashed. Brent crude surged 3.83% in a single day to reach $82.49 per barrel, WTI crude rose 2.75% to $77.29, and geopolitical premiums rebounded rapidly. This route carries nearly 20% of global crude oil transport. A rebound in oil prices will further increase inflation stickiness, the Fed's hawkish stance has further solidified, liquidity tightening expectations continue to suppress crypto risk assets, and market volatility has intensified. I am deeply engaged in content exporting planetary content and remain cautious in my operations, not blindly betting on news trends, quietly waiting for the market to gradually recover.
$DOGE
$XAU
These represent only personal views and do not constitute investment advice.125美元的SPCX，你敢接飞刀吗？
8月4日财报营收78.1亿美元，同比暴增92%，EBITDA大涨191%，AI合同狂揽141亿美元。但盘后只涨了5%就被砸回来，目前在125附近震荡。IPO价135，ATH 225，现在低于IPO价8-15%。105-126箱体震荡，均线纠缠，成交量放大但价格不涨，多空决战在即，方向即将选择
第一件事：财报炸裂，但市场在怕什么？
营收翻倍，Starlink用户1200万，Starship V3试飞成功，政府Starshield合同超60亿美元，收购Cursor进军AI企业市场——听着全是利好对不对？
但市场只盯着一个数：AI资本开支183.7亿美元
烧钱换增长，特斯拉剧本再次上演。同样的故事，2022年特斯拉被骂"估值泡沫"，后来从100涨到400
第二件事：锁定期解禁9亿股，但你可能被带节奏了
8月首个IPO锁定期到期释放约6.9%流通盘，内部人早期抛售，后续2026年12月和2027年6月还有两批。
早期员工成本极低，卖一点改善生活很正常
贝索斯卖亚马逊股票卖了20年，妨碍亚马逊涨了100倍吗？
内部人卖≠公司不行，就像你发了工资要交房租一样
第三件事：SpaceX的护城河，深到你看不见
积压订单475亿美元，未来三年活干不完
全球唯一具备可复用火箭+全球卫星互联网+轨道AI算力的公司
与Nvidia合作轨道AI，xAI协同，马斯克生态闭环
没有SpaceX，美国太空战略就瘸腿
没有Starlink，乌克兰战场通信就瘫痪
没有Starship，NASA登月计划就搁浅
操作策略
短线选手：
价格守住122-125并放量上攻128，轻仓做多，目标132-135，止损120。跌破122，轻仓试空，目标117-115，止损128
波段玩家：
回调至115-117或110附近分批低吸，目标130-135再看150，止损105下方。日线收盘站稳135以上，加仓看向更高
长线信仰者：
110-120区间定投。SpaceX不是普通股票，是全球太空基建的唯一运营商。2027年目标200-300，赌的是Starlink全球覆盖+AI算力收入爆发。但105是底线，破了等90再补$BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX SK海力士董事会正式批准 向清州M17工厂投资19.1万亿韩元 专门生产NAND闪存 同时给龙仁Y2工厂批了35.2万亿 两座厂合计54.3万亿韩元 全部瞄准AI时代的存储需求 2027年2月开工 2028年12月第一个洁净室投用 投资持续到2031年 M17建在清州现有园区 旁边就是M11 M12 M15 家门口扩产 速度会比新址快 之前公司说清州整体要砸100万亿 这次先落地第一批真金白银 AI服务器需求彻底点燃了 SK海力士这波是真的在抢产能窗口 存储芯片这轮超级周期远没结束 对BTC来说 存储大厂扩产是AI基建仍在加速的信号 AI算力需求没降温 意味着科技股和加密市场的长期叙事没断 短期存储股波动确实大 但产业资本真金白银往里砸 说明行业景气不是炒出来的 BTC现在的定价逻辑里 AI和科技叙事的权重越来越大 存储周期往上走 对风险偏好是支撑 反过来存储周期见顶 资金就会收紧 扩产是长期信号 别被短期情绪带偏 存储稳 BTC就有底气 存储崩 BTC也会跟着抖 AI的账还没算完 别在产业资本扩产的时候赌行业见顶#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还BTC has been holding back for nine weeks; tonight, it's time to decide the winner
In the first four trading days of this week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of about $764 million. Some on-chain monitoring also shows that wallets holding 10,000–10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by nearly 20,000 since the end of July
Money is indeed coming in, but the price has hit around 65,500 three times and still hasn't held steady. That's the most dilemma right now
Bulls hold ETF returns, whales are absorbing shares, and supply logic after halving; Bears aren't short on something either—the Coldcard collapse continues to impact sentiment, Strategy's latest disclosure sold another 1,638 BTC, geopolitical tensions push oil prices higher, and the progress of the CLARITY Act has been delayed until September
Tonight at 20:30, U.S. nonfarm payroll data will be released
The data is slightly unexpected; the long-short positions held up around 65,500 for so long are very likely to start trading together
Personally, I lean toward an upward breakout. The current sentiment is a bit like the second half of 2019, when the market was sideways until everyone lost patience, and people were constantly shouting that BTC was no longer working
What happened afterwards, veteran players all remember
The box has been held in for 9 weeks, but it won't just fart out
Tonight, let's see who kicked open the door of 65,500 🔥 $BTC #Storage stocks plunge after earnings reports, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Don't get confused by those professional terms like "growth slowdown" after the storage sector's earnings slump; the truth is actually a "Wall Street-style high expectation hostage situation."
*Highlight recap: On August 7, 2026, storage giants +$WDC (Western Digital) and +$SNDK (SanDisk) both delivered earnings that doubled profits. The result? $WDC's stock price crashed 16%, and $SNDK plummeted 11%.
*It's like scoring 98 on a test, but instead of praise, your mom scolds you for not hitting 120. Wall Street's appetite has been fed by AI to be bigger than a black hole; if guidance doesn't show "I can take off like Nvidia," the money immediately turns its back.
2. Is the AI memory bull market still stable? (The bull is still here, but it's tired)
*Hard assets are still "sold out": Fundamentally, +$MU (Micron) and +$SK Hynix's HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) orders are already booked through 2027 and even 2028.
*Analysis: The current bull market isn't about "dead or alive," but "too fat to run." Over the past year, $SNDK rose nearly 400%, and $WDC doubled. With such gains, positive earnings reports serve as "precise exit signals" for big money.
*Conclusion: The "physical foundation" of the AI memory bull market remains rock solid, but the "emotional foundation" has started to collapse. #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, AI investment pressure is heating up. Everyone, Google's bond issuance this time is quite large. $25 billion, divided into 10 tiers, with maturities ranging from 2 to 40 years, subscription demand exceeding $115 billion, more than quadrupling. Market demand for Google bonds is indeed strong.
The purpose of the funds is listed as "general corporate use," including debt repayment, capital expenditures, and AI infrastructure investments. Previously, Google had raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $205 billion, but this bond issuance shows that burning money is accelerating.
Meanwhile, Google is adjusting its AI organizational structure. DeepMind head Hassabis has become chairman and chief scientist of the parent company, while Google AI veteran Jeff Dean and his former colleagues have founded a new company, DiscoveryLoop. Raising funds while changing the lineup shows that the AI race is moving from technological competition to a stage where capital consumption and talent competition run parallel.
For the market, Google's large-scale borrowing shows that AI investment is still accelerating, and demand for storage and AI infrastructure remains supportive. However, the market's tolerance for capital expenditures has clearly declined. Microsoft is rewarded for its guidance and control, and if Google continues to expand spending without providing a clear return path, pressure on its stock price will persist.
Mi Ge's view is that the long-term logic of AI hasn't changed, but in the short term, the market is shifting from pricing imagination to capital returns. How much income can be converted from issuing bonds is the core question going forward. Do you think Google's move was the right move? Let's discuss in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading $BTC $SNDK $SPCX 📊 $DOGE Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this bull market was frantically rubbed by the bull market...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $14,100 $14,100 $0
4 hours: $137,100, $99,500, $37,600
12 hours: $171,000 $126,600 $44,400
24 hours: $352,900 $276,500 $76,400
From $DOGE liquidation data, 1-hour long liquidations crushed the bears, with zero shorts, and the flash killing was fierce from the start; The 4-hour bullish advantage persisted, with bulls outnumbering the bears 2.6 times, and the selling of bulls erupted across the board; 12-hour bulls still led by a wide margin, about 2.85 times, with selling runs throughout the short to medium cycle; 24-hour long liquidations soared to $276,500, 3.6 times the bears' price, and Dog Zhuang completed a full-cycle slaughter of the bulls on DOGE—short, medium, and long-term bulls were targeted and destroyed in all directions, with the bears' limited resistance being a drop in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $350,000. Bulls are bleeding like rivers, and the bullish sell-off is unstoppable. Everyone should control their positions and don't be forced to buy back.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 美国7月非农就业人数减少2.3万人
对炒股的人炒黄金的人来说，这是利好。
他们就业数据不好看，人们认为他不会加息，甚至可能会降息。所以认为股票会涨，黄金会涨。
通常确实是这样。也就是说经济越疲软，对炒股的越是利好，经济越火热，他们认为是利空。你说奇怪不奇怪？
美联储9月加息预期下降#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $BTC $ETH $XAU 📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $1,109,100 $288,300 $820,800
4 hours: $27.4737 million, $3.5455 million, $23.9282 million
12 hours: $33.7183 million, $4.1684 million, $29.5499 million
24 hours: $38.8567 million, $8.2195 million, $30.6372 million
Looking at $BTC liquidation data, short liquidations in 1-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour periods crushed the bulls, with volumes of 2.8, 6.7, 7.1, and 3.7 times longer than the bulls, respectively. The short squeeze was intense and intense throughout the entire cycle. Short, medium, and long-term bears were targeted and destroyed across all directions, with the bulls' only resistance being a drop in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $38.85 million. Short sellers were bleeding like rivers, and the short squeeze was unstoppable. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 本周早些时候出现的 $BTC 现货买盘已经确认消失，当前盘面由永续合约的主动买盘主导，持仓量同步快速攀升。
这并不等于趋势转空，但已经清晰地告诉我们反弹结构所处的阶段：现货驱动的买盘往往代表更稳定的资金入场，而永续合约主导的上涨更容易受到清算和持仓博弈的影响。
现货通常领先于合约方向，合约跟随现货反应，两者形成共振时行情才有持续性。而当现货买盘率先减弱、合约却仍在推高价格时，市场结构本身就变得更加脆弱——持仓量越高，反向清算的潜在冲击就越大。
当前阶段的主要风险在于：一旦价格无法继续向上扩展空间，前期追入的合约多头可能成为下一轮清洗的对象。美国大非农爆冷
今晚美国大非农数据爆冷，之前我的观点是数据会走弱，但没想到直接干成负数了。
美股高开高走，黄金涨破4400后开始震荡。之前提到的50/200日均线方法，4200的50日均线附近上车的话，节奏应该很舒服。接下去就是200日线4500美元大关，预计会有不小阻力，会有反复，甚至可能被美国打压回去。当然如果冲过去，上方一片坦途，可以展望前高5000大关。
今天大A继续给力，还是那句话，4000点以前不用担心，跌下去反而是机会。最近有色板块发力，随着美元指数走低，继续利好有色金属，站稳扶好即可。
今晚大非农之后，市场又跌回来一些，明显是对数据的可信度有疑虑。另外美联储当下对就业数据并不看重，这也恰恰表明市场存在分歧，在控制上涨节奏，这其实是好事。如果一条直线拉上去，大家来不及上仓位就盲目追涨，后面一个利空出来，急涨必急跌，又要被洗出去。7月的惨景，还想再经历一遍吗？
A股、美股、黄金，稳稳地涨，才是对散户最友好的走势。
大饼这边，法案确定推迟到9月，也别急，市场环境还是顺风，无非是多给时间积累筹码。
大家稳定心态，遇到回调积极布局，顺风局要稳稳回血！
周末愉快，以上仅为个人观点，不代表投资建议，注意风险。Tomorrow is Saturday. Logically, tonight's nonfarm payroll report should have lit up the crypto world: the US nonfarm payroll in July fell by 23,000, while the market was still waiting for an 80,000 increase; even more painful, May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. And what happened? $BTC Touched $65,388, circled around, then returned to around $65,000. The data is dovish, but the market hasn't been very excited. This reaction is even more worth watching than the non-farm payroll numbers themselves. Worsening employment does help the market worry less about a rate hike, but if the economy really declines, it's not really worth popping champagne. By the weekend, US stocks were closed, ETFs had stopped, and there was less institutional spot money in the market, making candlestick charts easily swayed by short-term funds. So tomorrow, let's first look at the BTC hurdle. The trading range over the past day was roughly 64,160 to 65,388 USD. The above 65,400–65,500 USD has been held down several times; only if it can hold with increased volume will it qualify to challenge 66,000 USD; It has fallen back below $64,000, so I'll start by looking at $63,000, and in an extreme case, around $62,300 a few days ago. $ETH Currently hovering around $1917, tonight peaked at $1944. It was a bit harder than a few days ago, but not hard enough to call for a breakthrough. Only after holding above $1945 will we have a chance to test $1980–$2000; If $1890 cannot hold, it will likely see another level near $1850. $SOL is even more direct: the current price is $73.9, $72 is the cushion in front of you, and $75–$75.3 is pressing overhead. No$BTC $ETH $XAU In July, nonfarm payrolls directly decreased by 23,000. Market expectations were an increase of 85,000, with a gap of 108,000. This is the third largest monthly job loss since the pandemic in 2020. The so-called employment resilience in previous months was just a delayed statistical illusion. The deterioration of the labor market had already been happening in the shadows. Gold directly broke through 4,400, and safe-haven funds poured in. Gold was truly safe-haven this time. BTC was conflicted: loose expectations supported the bottom, but the worsening labor market suppressed upside potential. Liquidity benefits and recession fears are priced in simultaneously. In the short term, it's a high-volatility grinding consolidation. Trading recession or loose trading—the market hasn't figured it out. Let's wait for the direction to emerge. #StoragestocksPlungAfterEarnings, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable? #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment beat inflation? #财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 真懵了，这根针差点把我送上天。能不能放过我啊？😭
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【爆仓战报】
🎯 品种：ETHUSDT
📈 方向：做空 75x
📈 开仓均价：1,905.72
📊 平仓均价：1,922.61
💸 已实现收益：-4.81 USDT
📉 已实现收益率：-74.00%
📈 最高拉到：1,944.00
【这根针怎么来的？】
我真的服了，刚看空，ETH直接一根大阳线从 1,893 拉到 1,944，50个点的暴力拉升。
我的空单在 1,922 被直接带走，然后价格又回落到现在 1,915 附近。
这摆明了就是拉爆空头再回头。 75倍杠杆，根本扛不住这种级别的插针。
小仓位是亏不多，但这连续被精准打击的感觉，真的心态要崩了。
【最近这运气，我真的服了】
来，盘点一下最近的操作：
· 闪迪做多，倒在黎明前，刚止损就暴力拉升
· 闪迪做多，被精准扫损后继续拉
· ETH做空，刚开单就被一根针直接送上西天
现在真的是玩啥亏啥，多也亏，空也亏。感觉市场就盯着我这一两百块钱在收割。
【问题出在哪？】
我仔细想了一下，这波ETH空单的逻辑其实没错——美联储鹰派、科技股承压、技术面也有回调需求。
但错在两点：
1. 太急了：刚看到一点反弹迹象就急着开空，没有等更明确的位置
2. 杠杆太高了：75倍在这种波动率下，20个点就能把我带走。方向对了，但没扛过中间的波动
【接下来怎么办？】
我真的需要冷静一下了。
连续被精准打击，心态已经明显受影响。再这样下去，可能真的要把最后这点本金也搭进去。
先空仓，什么都不做。等下周看看市场情绪稳定了再说。
【心里话】
兄弟们，我这一周的亏钱经历，你们当个反面教材看吧。方向看对了没用，仓位管理、进场时机、止损位置，任何一个环节出问题，都是爆仓的节奏。
我先去冷静冷静，明天再战。
你们最近怎么样？评论区安慰一下我吧 😭
$ETH
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？