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🚨 The "$5B Strategy BTC overhang" may be getting overstated.
That headline combines several items:
• A reserve allocation
• The then-current $1.76B annual cash obligation
• Two optional buyback authorizations
Not all of these translate into immediate Bitcoin selling pressure.
As of July 26, Strategy reportedly held $3.75B in USD, enough to cover roughly 2.1 years of then-current preferred dividends and interest.
During July 20–26:
📈 Raised $525M through MSTR ATM proceeds, adding to cash reserves.
🔄 Spent just $25M on STRC buybacks.
The real risk would emerge only if Strategy began consistently selling BTC while reserve coverage deteriorated.
Until that changes, the idea of a guaranteed $5B BTC selling overhang remains a relatively weak bearish argument.
Markets should focus on actual treasury actions—not just headline-sized numbers.
$BTC $ETH $BEAT
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms #EarningsWeekAhead #Tether季度盈利15亿, gold increased to 146 tons
Tether earned $1.5 billion in Q2, but its excess reserves plummeted from $8 billion to $4.1 billion, nearly halved. Profits are stable, but the safety cushion is thinning.
Profits still come from U.S. Treasuries and buyback gains—a stable money printer under high interest rates, but USDT circulating is only $184.6 billion, with quarterly growth nearly stagnating, reflecting the overall crypto market's shrinking volume and falling prices in Q2.
Changes on the reserve side are key: gold increased by 14 tons to 146.2 tons, and Bitcoin by 1,796 to 98,933 coins. It is precisely the fluctuations in the market prices of these two asset classes that have caused excess reserves valued at market prices to shrink sharply—the money isn't burned, only the book value evaporates as the market pulls back.
Tether's intention is clear: to hedge the long-term uncertainty of the dollar's credit with gold and Bitcoin, reshaping itself from a "digital dollar printer" into a "multi-asset reserve institution." Its 146 tons of gold have already exceeded some official reserves of smaller countries. This move is forward-looking, but at the cost of losing the safety cushion of excess reserves.
On the positive side: Steady earnings of 1.5 billion each quarter, the business model is exceptionally strong despite high interest rates, diversification reduces dependence on the single dollar.
Concerns: The rate-cut cycle will squeeze profits, excess reserves halving will weaken risk resistance, and stagnant circulation reflects industry weakness.
Success or failure depends on the roles of gold and Bitcoin in the next geopolitical shift. If they become the new reserve anchors, Tether will step onto a bigger stage; Otherwise, when the next black swan occurs, the market's confidence bottom line will be tested.Today, institutional funds showed a very clear divergence. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw large net outflows in a single day, with many long-term funds choosing to cash out profits at high prices; Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs continue to maintain net inflows, and Blackstone's products keep absorbing chips.
Behind the divergence in funds, two different institutional approaches emerge: some believe $BTC has sufficient short-term gains and choose to cash in; Another group of institutions are optimistic about the long-term potential of Ethereum L2 and DeFi, and are taking advantage of the volatility to continue investing in ETH.
Such a split-market situation is unlikely to trigger a broad-based rally in the short term. The market will shift from "rising and falling together" to structural rotation. Funds will continue to select tracks with real applications and cash flow support. Altcoins that rely solely on hype narratives and fail to implement will continue to be abandoned by capital in the future. For ordinary traders, don't simply follow ETF fund flows; you should also consider on-chain staking and ecosystem activity for a comprehensive assessment. 💀 $0.07 DOGE—Long-Short Ratio 3.46, Everyone Is Long, Who's Selling?
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DOGE is currently quoted at $0.0703**, up 0.57% in 24 hours, with an intraday range of $0.0681-$0.0705. It has dropped over 54% from its January high of $0.156 and has dropped over 90% from its 2021 high of $0.7316. Prices are falling, but everyone is going long—this is a dangerous signal. **
📊 Four sets of data reveal the truth:
1. Technical Aspects: All moving averages are the ceiling
DOGE's current price is about 14% below the 50-day SMA ($0.08) and about 22% below the 200-day SMA ($0.09). The 20-day EMA is around $0.07394, and the 50-day EMA is around $0.07950. DOGE has been trading below its 20-day moving average for 65 consecutive trading days, setting a new record for the longest streak in history. A death cross has formed on the weekly chart—the medium- to long-term trend has turned bearish.
2. Extreme Divergence Between Long and Bearish: Smart Money 77.6% go long, while spot money is net selling
Long positions dominate the derivatives market: global long-short ratio is 2.72 (net long 73.1%), Binance's top traders' net long ratio is 77.6%, and the holding ratio is as high as 3.46. But the spot market taker buy/sell ratio is 0.8266—spot sellers have $8.2 million more real-time volume than buyers. The funding rate was only -0.0066% to 0.0012%, and bulls did not pay a high premium. When everyone is long on the contract while spot is net selling, historical experience shows that the side with more people is usually the one who gets squeezed out.
3. ETFs: Institutional demand evaporated, with the first net outflow in July
Since its launch in November 2025, the DOGE spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $525,980 in July for the first time, with total assets dropping from $12 million to $9.96 million. From June 17 to July 17, **there was no new capital inflow for a single month**. Grayscale outflowed $871,000 in a single day—institutions are retreating, not increasing positions**.
4. Whales are buying, retail investors are panicking
On July 7, a whale transferred 3.99 billion DOGE (about $300 million) from Binance to an unknown wallet; In mid-July, another whale bought 200 million DOGE (about $14 million) near $0.07. Major holders holding over 1 billion DOGE have expanded to 73.85 billion. But KOLs collectively remain silent—"When no one wants to make public forecasts on assets close to months-old lows, that itself is an indicator of market sentiment."
🧠 My judgment:
Spot flow surged 116% to $558,000 on August 1, with both bulls and bears adding more. Short-term support at $0.068 If it breaks below with increased volume, it could target $0.065 or even $0.058-$0.060; The upper level at $0.075 is the rebound ceiling; a breakout would target $0.08.
CoinCodex forecasts a year-end target of $0.08649 (+23%), but this will take 4-5 months to be confirmed. DOGE has been below the 20-day moving average for 65 consecutive days, with a weekly death cross, the first time an ETF has flowed out, and the long-bear ratio is extreme—short-term bears are highly likely to have the advantage.
DOGE at $0.07: whales buying, ETFs running, long contracts betting, spot sellers selling—four forces tearing the market apart, who will be the first to collapse?
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Discuss in the comments: Will DOGE break below 0.065 first or return to 0.08? 👇
#DOGE #狗狗币 #ETF #加密市场分析 $DOGE This indicator, NUPL, tells me: the real surrender bottom hasn't appeared yet!
Looking at the cycle bottom: In the later bear markets of 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, NUPL fell below the zero axis.
When NUPL is negative, it means that, based on the average on-chain cost, the entire network of BTC has entered unrealized losses.
This stage is usually accompanied by: high-level buyers concentrated to cut losses; short- and long-term chips re-turning; Market sentiment entering fear or surrender;
The zero axis is not an ordinary line; when NUPL falls from positive to negative, it means the market has shifted from "profit withdrawal" to "principal loss."
Currently, NUPL has fallen from its previous high to the 0–0.25 range.
This indicates that most of the book profits have been squeezed, and the market has clearly moved out of the greed zone, but the overall network remains in a floating profit, without the widespread capitulation typical of historical bear bottoms.
In other words: it is not like a cycle top now, nor is it a textbook ultimate bear bottom; it is more like a transition zone between "hope and fear."
Next, two paths can be observed:
If BTC strengthens again, NUPL will rebound and re-enter above 0.5, indicating a new round of profit expansion; but the closer it gets to historical highs, the more profit-taking risks will accumulate.
If BTC continues to fall and NUPL falls below the zero axis, it indicates that the entire network has entered an overall floating loss, and the panic release at that time may actually signal a higher-quality cycle bottom.
Personally, I believe what really matters is not whether NUPL will fall below zero, but whether if the price hits new lows again, will NUPL also hit new lows in tanse.
Lower prices and no deterioration in NUPL mean that loss expansion is slowing and selling strength may be near exhaustion.
So now the question is:
If BTC stops falling while NUPL is still positive, would you choose to position on the left side in advance; Or should you wait until NUPL falls below zero and the entire network surrenders before making a move?SEC announces suspension of approval for QBTC Bitcoin index options — this matter is more interesting than the headline suggests.
Let's clarify the timeline first:
On May 22, the SEC approved Nasdaq PHLX to list QBTC, the first cash-settled Bitcoin index option listed on a national securities exchange in the US; on June 11, CME filed a legal challenge with the SEC; on July 31, the SEC full commission accepted CME's petition and officially suspended approval, with public comments closing on August 24.
CME's argument is just one sentence:
Bitcoin is a commodity, and commodity options should be regulated by the CFTC, not approved by the SEC for listing on a securities exchange.
But there is a key detail: the underlying index used by QBTC is the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index — CME's own benchmark index. CME is essentially saying: "You used my index to create a product that bypasses my regulatory framework to compete for my customers."
This is not the SEC opposing BTC; it is CME using regulatory procedures to challenge a competitor.
The implications for BTC are twofold: short-term uncertainty — QBTC's launch is delayed, reducing institutional hedging options; long-term positive — the outcome of this dispute will clarify the regulatory jurisdiction of BTC options, and once clarified, products will be launched in batches, significantly increasing liquidity.
August 24 is the next key date.
$BTC The previous post debated "Spot price is high or wait for pullback," but two hours later, $BTC was still stuck around 63.15K; The real change isn't direction, but that holders are starting to take on risk first.
Shuqin completes the waiting plan: buy long positions in batches at 61.4–61.9K, below 60.9K invalid, rebound to 63K to reduce positions. She wants lower edge odds, not chasing in the middle of the range. Sarper Önder exited with a small profit before the stop-loss was triggered due to a $BNB drawdown deeper than expected; ERIC's $GRVT short positions have been halved, with remaining positions continuing to follow.
Overall judgment: Right now, it's more like "waiting for positions and protecting profits," not a full bullish turnaround. $BTC If you don't return to the planned zone, don't move; only consider trial and error once you can regain your footing after touching it; If it falls below the invalidity level, just give up. Anonymous $PYTH, $BAND signals, and high-multiplier Manifest targets based solely on rumors are excluded.
Will you continue to wait for the lower boundary or give up this period of volatility?
These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment advice$GIGGLE 这两天涨了很多，原因很多人也知道，CZ 在社交媒体上提到它了。 CZ 说，他可能会去试着买一点Meme，许多人认为可能是$GIGGLE 这个币。 正因为如此，$GIGGLE 的价格才是没能下来。 成也萧何，败也萧何。 我们换一个角度去想，$GIGGLE 现在的利好好像只有CZ 购买这个因素。 那CZ 如果真的买了$GIGGLE ，利好出尽就是利空，$GIGGLE 的价格要跌。 如果没有买，那它的价格也维持不住。 好像不管怎么样，它的价格都是要低下去的。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 我们可以发现，它合约多空比震荡的幅度是在越来越变小的。 我们结合K线去看的话，会发现它价格的波动也是在越来越小的。 这种情况，我的理解是现在多头和空头都不敢重仓去做。 我对这种情况的理解是，多头现在担心CZ 买了别的Meme ，空头担心CZ 买了大量$GIGGLE 。 那这个问题又绕回到了一开始了，就是说CZ 会不会买$GIGGLE ？ 我刚刚也回答过这个问题了，我认为不管买不买，都算是利空。 —————————————————— 我印象里，我之前做过$MUTonight, don't just focus on the candlestick in the crypto world
There are three things to really see
BTC
Japanese yen
Cold wallets
BTC is still fluctuating near 63,000
It couldn't reach 63,500
Funds won't dare to chase too much
Fell below 63,000
The market may re-sell short-term leverage
Hold at 63,000
Only mainstream coins like ETH, Sol, and BNB have room for recovery
But tonight, the biggest trouble isn't BTC itself
It is the yen
After news broke that the US and Japan were jointly stabilizing the yen,
BTC may be led by both the dollar and the yen
Gentle intervention
The US dollar weakened
BTC may continue to rebound
Violent intervention
The yen has surged sharply
Closing positions in carry trades
BTC may be directly inserted
This is the most sinister place
You think you're making a BTC breakout
In fact, it may be a withdrawal order from global arbitrage funds
The mountain counter here doesn't look good either
BTC did not drop sharply
But many small coins have already been hit by a round of losses
This shows that the market is not completely emotionless
It's because the leverage is too tight
At the slightest stirring of grass,
The first to break out is always the knockoff
And then there's the Coldcard cold wallet
Reports mention that about 594 BTC were stolen
This is not a token price fluctuation
This is a knockdown on the safety bottom line
BTC will not run away
But the tools you use to store BTC
If there's a problem at the bottom
It can still pierce through people
So tonight's game is very complicated
Macro may be a pin
Counterfeit assets may face liquidation
The wallet is still telling ghost stories
Tonight, there's no fear of BTC slowly shaking
I'm even more afraid you'll think it's just a regular sideways move
As a result, he was educated by all three lines at midnight
The hardest thing in the crypto world isn't understanding the direction
It's when risks come at the same time
Your position is still alive
The above is just market observation
This does not constitute investment advice
Contract leverage is extremely risky
Investing carries risks; enter with caution. $BEAT $SNDK $BTC #财报观察员: Next Thursday's lottery results will be held, Circle will finalize #SPCX首份财报将公布, with $100 billion unlocking imminent Nineteen-year highs on the 30-year UST are not the kind of signal the market can absorb quietly. Long-end repricing of this magnitude tends to compress risk multiples broadly, and crypto trades like a long-duration asset when institutions are rotating, not like a hedge. BTC holding $63K while ETH drifts lower is consistent with risk-off sorting inside the asset class, not a bullish divergence.
CLARITY missing the recess window removes the nearest-term positive catalyst for the space. The market had been partially pricing a regulatory framework; losing that timeline adds the discount back into ETH-linked infrastructure just as Circle's earnings and the SpaceX unlock create fresh event risk. A lot needs to go right in a short window for the bulls to reset the narrative here.
Just my read, not advice.
#OKXOrbitThe crypto market in July finally breathed a sigh of relief.
Let's start with the data:
$BTC Starting from about $58,000 at the beginning of the month, reaching a high of 67,000, and stabilizing around $63,000 by month-end, with a monthly increase of about 7%-7.5%.
$ETH performed even better, surging from just over 1,500 yuan to nearly 2,000 USD, with a monthly increase of nearly 20%.
The overall crypto market (CoinDesk 20) posted its best monthly performance in a year.
Comparing US stocks during the same period: chip stocks plunged over 20%, the Nasdaq was also sluggish, but crypto bucked the trend and strengthened, especially Ethereum, which clearly outperformed Bitcoin.
Why did prices rise in July?
June fell too hard, and the leverage was almost washed out, forcing selling pressure to drop sharply.
The Federal Reserve held steady, coupled with some slight easing in some macroeconomic data.
Institutional funds have started flowing back into Ethereum, and staking yields and ETF-related trends have also provided support.
Seasonal factors: Historically, July has been relatively friendly to Bitcoin.
But don't get too happy too soon
In the last few days of the month, both BTC and ETH retreated, diverging from the rebound in US stocks.
More importantly, historical data shows that Bitcoin often weakens in August (especially in recent years).
Currently, the market is still in a volatile recovery phase, far from the 2025 high, and overall sentiment has not truly turned optimistic.
Personal observation
Ethereum remains relatively strong, with the ETH/BTC ratio hitting a nearly three-month high, warranting continued attention.
Altcoins as a whole haven't really started up yet, and most of the capital is still at the top.
Macro risks (interest rates, oil prices, geopolitics) persist, and volatility may continue to amplify.
To sum up:
July is an "oversold rebound," not a confirmation of a new bull market.
If August continues to fluctuate or pull back, that's when the patience of coin holders will truly be tested.#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
The U.S. Treasury Department intervened directly in the yen exchange rate through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, marking the first time since 2011 that the U.S. directly entered the market to support the yen. This historic move, combined with the "accidental" exposure of the "small note" by Treasury Secretary Besent, together forms the most significant recent event in the forex market.
🧾 The full story: from "small notes" to real money
The intervention began with a "small note." On July 31, Reuters reporters captured Finance Minister Bescent's notebook with the inscription "To-do: Buy 5 to 10 billion dollars worth of yen." Soon after, media confirmed that the New York Fed, on behalf of the Treasury, sold euros and bought yen through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Afterwards, the New York Fed and Goldman Sachs declined to comment, and neither the Treasury nor Morgan Stanley responded.
📈 The market saw an immediate effect: the yen surged rapidly
After the announcement, the yen exchange rate immediately rebounded sharply. USD/JPY quickly fell from around 158.9 before intervention to around 157.6. The day before, the yen had surged from a nearly 164-year low to around 158 due to Japan's unilateral intervention. In just two days, the yen appreciated by about 4.3%.
Notably, Japan's single-day intervention on July 30 is estimated to have reached 8.45 trillion yen (about 52.8 billion USD), and it resumed action the next day.
🏛️ Why act now? The yen's "danger edge"
The context of this joint intervention is that the yen has fallen to the "edge of danger." The yen once approached the 164 mark against the dollar, marking its lowest level in nearly 40 years since 1986.
The core pressure on the yen's sharp decline comes from the large US-Japan interest rate differential. The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remained at 3.50%-3.75%, while the Bank of Japan was only 1.0%. The approximately 250-275 basis point spread continues to drive carry trades selling the yen. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, intensifying inflationary pressures on Japan as an energy importer.
💎 Core Challenge: Treating the Symptoms or the Root Cause?
The significance of this intervention lies more in sending a strong political signal that the U.S. will not stand by and watch the yen depreciate uncontrollably. However, its effectiveness may be limited:
· "Small notes" may be carefully arranged: Some analysts believe the exposure of the Becent notes is more like a deliberate "leak," aiming to intimidate the market with minimal cost.
· $5 to $10 billion is relatively limited: compared to the vast foreign exchange market, this scale is more symbolic.
· The fundamental problem remains unresolved: intervention cannot change the fundamental pattern of divergence in U.S.-Japan monetary policy. As long as the interest rate differential remains, the pressure to depreciate the yen will be hard to eliminate.
Therefore, whether the yen can truly stabilize ultimately depends on when the Federal Reserve will shift its monetary policy, whether geopolitical tensions can ease, and whether the Bank of Japan can provide a clearer rate hike path.
💎 Summary
This rare joint intervention by the US and Japan in nearly 30 years is a strong policy signal in response to the yen exchange rate crisis. In the short term, it can stabilize the market and curb speculation, but its long-term effects remain to be tested in the face of a huge interest rate spread gap. Next week, the market's focus will be on whether this intervention can withstand the sustained interest rate differential pressure caused by expectations of Fed rate hikes.AI supports the US stock bull market, while the crypto market falls alone! Why are both risk assets facing completely opposite destinies?
Many people have recently been confused: despite being a risk asset, US stocks keep fluctuating higher, while Bitcoin and Ethereum keep moving sideways and weakening, completely decoupled from the two. We have combined the latest global news from the past 24 hours to clarify the underlying logic.
1. US stock market + 24-hour core news review
Overnight, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.7% and the Nasdaq surging nearly 1%. The biggest market highlight: Nvidia surges to 4 trillion in market value during trading, reclaiming the top spot globally.
24-hour key events:
1. The subsequent fermentation following the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting continues to impact the market. This decision kept interest rates unchanged, but there were three rare votes against the rate hike, and internal hawkish voices emerged. Official Kashkari publicly stated: if inflation remains stubborn, he supports continued gradual rate hikes. Currently, the market prices in a significant rise in the probability of a rate hike in September.
2. Continued Divergence in Earnings Season: After Apple's earnings were released, it plunged due to disappointing earnings guidance, while AI industry chain stocks such as Amazon, AMD, and AMD Computer continued to strengthen. Funds are abandoning the sluggish growth of consumer electronics and continue to bet on the long-term realization of AI computing power.
3. US Treasury yields fluctuated at high levels, with the 10-year yield holding above 4.6%. Overvalued assets showed clear divergence: AI tech stocks supported by cash flow and orders resisted declines; Pure thematic and unprofitable small caps continue to be sold off by capital.
A brief summary of the U.S. stock market situation:
Currently, US stocks are in a structural bull market, with indices looking good, but not a broad-based rally. AI is the sole main theme in the market. Capital consensus: AI is the core lever of the U.S. economy. Even with high interest rates, institutions are still willing to allocate long-term to leading computing power companies.
Risk points lie behind: Next week, US July nonfarm payroll data will be released. If employment data is hot, it will further strengthen expectations of Fed rate hikes, and high-valuation tech stocks could face a phased correction at any time.
2. 24-hour market trends and major news in the cryptocurrency market
In stark contrast to the strong performance of US stocks, the crypto market has continued to fluctuate weakly. BTC's current price is repeatedly fluctuating around $63,000, while Ethereum remains around $1,860.
The two most important news stories in the past 24 hours:
1. CoinGlass data shows that over 90,000 people were liquidated in the crypto market within 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $362 million, resulting in a double blowout between long and short. Whether short-term contract traders are bullish or bearish, they are easily harvested by volatility.
2. Liquidity Continues to Weaken: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for several consecutive weeks. Institutional funds continue to withdraw from the crypto market, forming a stark contrast with the ongoing influx of capital into the US AI sector.
Many people wonder: Why is Bitcoin not following the rise when US stocks are strong?
Core underlying logic:
Large U.S. tech stocks now have sustained revenue, AI capital expenditure, and cash flow as support;
Bitcoin does not generate cash flow; its pricing is based solely on long-term liquidity expectations. Currently, the market is pricing in the risk of Fed rate hikes, and non-yielding assets will be the first to be abandoned by capital. As long as rate cut expectations continue to be delayed, cryptocurrencies will find it difficult to break out of a major trend rally.
3. The core conclusions that ordinary traders need to understand right now
1. US Stocks: Don't blindly chase the price of a single AI leader. As the market enters the financial report verification stage, only prioritize the computing power industry chain where orders are placed and results are delivered, avoiding purely conceptual speculative targets. Closely watch next week's nonfarm payroll data, which is the biggest short-term turning point.
2. Crypto Market: At this stage, it is in a liquidity vacuum zone, and the major trend has not yet reversed. Do not heavily position contracts in volatile markets; recently, both long and short positions have been frequent, and short-term trading has very low margin for error.
3. Insights from the divergence: During tight liquidity cycles, funds prioritize assets that can generate profits, while pure narrative speculative assets remain marginalized.
$BTC $ETH SpaceX's first earnings report after going public is about to be released, but what the market truly focuses on may not be just profit figures, but whether Starlink can support a trillion-dollar valuation and the selling pressure from the lock-up lift. This rally is essentially a dual game of "earnings expectations + restricted stock unlocking." Let's look at the fundamentals first: SpaceX's biggest cash bull right now is still Starlink. Over the past year, Starlink's revenue has grown significantly, with user numbers surpassing tens of millions. Satellite internet is gradually shifting from a "story" to a real business. But the other side is clear: SpaceX remains a high-investment company. Starship R&D, AI projects, and space infrastructure all require continuous cash burning. Currently, the market's core demand is not short-term profits, but commercialization potential in the coming years. So the most important thing in this financial report isn't whether it's a loss, but a few signals: can Starlink's revenue maintain rapid growth; Whether user growth continues; Whether the future profit path is clear; High-investment projects have not started to generate returns. What truly determines valuation is whether SpaceX can transform from a "great dream company" into a "sustainably profitable company." Another more realistic issue is the large-scale unlocking of restricted shares on August 6. Eligible shareholders can sell up to about 20% of the restricted shares, involving assets worth over $100 billion. Since SpaceX previously had few outstanding shares, once a large number of shares enter the market, short-term selling pressure may increase significantly. ThisFundamental Research Report $FLOKI / Floki (Meme/Pay) $3.20
To start with the conclusion: Floki ($FLOKI) has an overall score of 53/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than reality. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Floki (token $FLOKI), Meme/Payments sector. Focusing on Meme+ on-chain universities. Benchmarking against DOGE and SHIB. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified perspective, no cross-sector comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Floki is $3.00B, DOGE is undisclosed, SHIB is not disclosed. On the FDV side, Floki $4.20B, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Floki $2.00M, DOGE undisclosed, SHIB undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Floki has not disclosed, DOGE has not disclosed, SHIB has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Finally, a qualitative note: solid fundamentals (score 53/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Three major risks: short-term massive unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, and GitHub version release. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
That's all for now. If you have any thoughts, see you in the comments.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitThe most tormenting thing in a volatile market is never the rise and fall itself, but when you know your direction is unclear, you still can't help but want to "take another gamble."
Last month, $BTC hovered between 61,000 and 67,000 for nearly three weeks. During that time, I almost made two moves: once, the funding rate suddenly turned negative, and I immediately thought, "The bears are about to explode"; The other was when the half-day moving average closed with a long upper shadow, and I thought, "It's topped, it's time to short." I managed to hold back both times. Looking back, if I had opened at the time, one trade would have lost at least 3% to 5%, and the difference I made on the previous grid would have basically been lost all of it.
Many people call this kind of endurance 'missed opportunity.' I increasingly feel this is where the real gap in the market is widening.
I used to treat trading as a prediction competition. K-lines, moving averages, on-chain data, influencer opinions—everything you could use—always trying to grab half a step before the market starts. But three times you hit the right direction, but you lose more often—because most of the time the market doesn't give you a "start," only fake breakouts, fake breakdowns, and fake volume. The more you try to catch it accurately, the easier it is to get scanned back and forth.
In the second half of this year, I deliberately changed something: replacing "Did I guess right?" with "Is it necessary for me to act now?"
This shift sounds easy to say but actually quite painful to do. You have to admit one very ungraceful thing first: most of the time, you actually have no advantage. In a volatile market, the information gap is narrowing, and after institutional money comes in, the pace becomes stickier and more grueling. Bands that used to be profitable with sensitivity often turn into a war of attrition over fees and slippage. I set myself three standards that are tacky but effective for now.
First, ask yourself if you have a strong reason to "do it now." If the answer is "because it's boring," "because others are making money," or "because the rates look attractive," just cut it off. Truly worthwhile opportunities usually come with clear trigger conditions: daily volume surpassing a key moving average, continuous net inflows of ETFs above a certain threshold, or a macro data that truly changes liquidity expectations. Without these, even the most beautiful patterns are just noise.
Second, position size must be linked to certainty, not to feeling. When certainty is high, the position can reach half of the plan's upper limit; When certainty is unclear, it drops directly below 10%, or even to a short position. Many people lose money not because of wrong direction, but because when the direction is unclear, they still use trending market positions to gamble.
Third, make "survival" your top priority, not "make the most." Last year, for a while, I chased high win rates and odds, but an extreme market reversed half a year's profits. Now I deliberately keep some funds to never touch high leverage or chase niche currencies. The purpose of this money is to keep my capital after making two or three mistakes in a row. To put it bluntly, a volatile market tests not your sensitivity to market trends, but your tolerance for uncertainty. The market is oscillating for 70% of the time—that's common sense. But there are far fewer people who can truly accept "I don't understand now, so I'm not doing it." Most people would rather act frequently when it's unclear than admit they have no advantage for now. Short positions feel like failure for them, but for me, it's more like a proactive choice.
What truly widens the long-term gap is often not a single time you caught the top or bottom, but whether you can pay unnecessary tuition fees during a long period of bottoming and sideways movement. There are three times the number of people in a year everywhere, but those who can survive steadily for three years are truly rare.
Recently, when you're monitoring the market, your first reaction is still "Quickly find a direction to open an order," or can you calmly tell yourself, "There's no chance to fit the system today, just wait"? Share your real changes in the comments section.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
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#新手必看: Everything you need is here
@OKX Planet @OKX Chinese@星球社区助手 시장은 광범위한 알트 상승장이 아니라 선택적 유동성 회전 국면이며, 상대 강도가 갈리는 국면에서 파생상품 리스크가 방향성을 결정하는 핵심 변수다. 표면적 상승과 실제 가격 반영 사이의 간극을 먼저 확인해야 한다. 일부 알트코인이 급등해도 전체 시장이 동반 상승하지 않는 이유는 자금 부족이 아니라, 자금이 특정 자산에 편중되며 파생상품 시장의 포지션 불균형이 커지고 있기 때문이다. 현재 시장 구조에서 확인되는 사실은 세 가지다. 첫째, BTC가 여전히 유동성 엔진 역할을 하며 위험선호의 기준금리처럼 작동한다. 둘째, ETH는 기관 수요와 안정성 프리미엄을 동시에 받는 구간이다. 셋째, 상대 강도 상위 자산과 하위 자산의 성과 차이가 극단적으로 벌어지고 있다. 이는 단순한 종목 선별 문제가 아니라, 파생상품 시장에서 롱 포지션이 특정 종목에 과도하게 몰린 결과로 해석할 수 있다. 무엇이 이미 가격에 반영됐는가. 상대 강도 상위 그룹의 상승은 이미 유동성 집중과 모멘텀 추종 수요가 반영된#ColdcardSeedFlaw
This incident highlights an interesting fact: cold wallets are not "invulnerable."
Many people assume that simply storing Bitcoin in a hardware wallet guarantees absolute safety. In reality, however, if the seed phrase is generated with insufficient randomness, assets can still be stolen—even if the device has never been connected to the Internet.
Even more concerning is that a firmware update cannot fix a seed that was generated with a flaw. If the key was weak from the start, the update only protects wallets created subsequently.
In my view, following this incident, the community will focus not only on which cold wallet to use but also on how that wallet generates its seed phrases. In the world of Bitcoin, security is not just about the device itself; it begins the very moment the private key is created.Falling from 0.3 all the way down, is Dogecoin's fate really zero?
From 0.3 to 0.07, this candlestick really makes your blood pressure soar. Opening this chart, the screen was filled with green numbers with only one "+1.27%" trying to show off, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 all pressing down overhead, like three mountains. If you ask me if Dogecoin is going to go to zero, Let's put our emotions aside for now and talk about it.
First, let's talk about the tragic part: it really is ugly.
Back in 2025, $DOGE was still hovering above 0.3, with many shouting "push for $1," but in less than a year, it didn't stop and went straight to the ankle. Currently, $0.07 is fluctuating, with a 24-hour high of just 0.07056, not even reaching 0.071. Even more painful are the technical indicators—the daily chart ranges from SMA3 to SMA200, all showing "sell" signals, with Bollinger Bands closing downward. Although the RSI hasn't entered oversold territory, it has also deflated. Fear and Greed Index 28, a blatant state of "fear."
The institutions have also been quite proven wrong. The US approved two Dogecoin ETFs, which sounds like great news, right? As a result, REX-Osprey's assets under management were $17.1 million, while 21Shares' TDOG was only $3.3 million, totaling less than $20 million. It's worth noting that this ETF has been on the market for over half a year, and institutions haven't bought it at all. Futures open interest was cut from $1.7 billion in May to $960 million in June, with long positions liquidated by over 130 million—this isn't a normal decline, it's leveraged liquidation and trampling, with bulls bleeding like rivers.
But you say it's zeroing? I don't think so.
First, the market value remains. Even at this level, DOGE's circulating market cap still exceeds $10 billion, ranking fourth globally with a daily turnover close to $600 million. A product with daily turnover of hundreds of millions of dollars, and it suddenly resets to zero? That would require everyone to unplug the network cable at the same time.
Second, the community is not dead. Dogecoin has survived since 2013, experienced the bear market of 2018, and the madness of 2021—how many times it has "died" and survived. The proportion of holdings among the top 100 addresses has recently been declining, and the chips have become more dispersed, indicating that it's not a few big players selling off and fleeing, but retail investors taking over. The number of new on-chain addresses is also rising, with 6.72 million non-zero addresses, and 123,000 new addresses in 30 days—does this look like it's about to go to zero?
Furthermore, although Musk's marginal effect from his sales pitch is diminishing, efforts like X platform payment integration and Paxos cooperation are steadily progressing. House of Doge has also been listed on Nasdaq, and the narrative of DOGE as a "payment coin" has not completely collapsed.
So what will happen next?
Realistically, don't expect a V-shaped reversal in the short term. Most analysts set the 2026 range at $0.06 to $0.15, with a neutral outlook around $0.095. Strong support below is at $0.058—this is the deep bottom tested in October 2023. If this level is broken, that would be truly dangerous. There are plenty of resistance above: 0.078, 0.082, 0.09-0.10, each a cluster of trapped positions. To break through, the market needs to coordinate + increase in volume.
In the long run, the probability of resetting to zero is extremely low, but if it returns to 0.3 or even 0.5? It's also difficult in the short term. DOGE's fixed annual issuance of 5 billion is just sitting there, and unlimited supply is like chronic bleeding. Without a steady narrative and capital inflows, it's hard for the price to explode.
To sum up:
If you're stuck at 0.2 or 0.3, cutting losses now does hurt, but the chance of Dogecoin going zero is even lower than winning the lottery. It's more like a 'phoenix'—when it rises, it makes you question your life; when it falls, you question your life too, but somehow it just won't die. The current position, to put it bluntly, is grinding the bottom, grinding until most people have lost their temper, then maybe there's a chance.
But then again, meme coins are still meme coins—don't gamble your meal money. If you can handle these fluctuations, just hold on; if not, reduce your holdings and get a good night's sleep. After all, in this market, surviving long is far more important than making quick profits.If a single bullish candlestick makes you believe the bull market is back, then that candlestick might be a cup of wine 🍷 handed to you by someone else. Tell me, are we waiting for trend confirmation, or for a reason to convince ourselves to enter? When I was looking through the market last night, I actually felt a bit conflicted. BTC stands near a high point, ETH is backed by institutional and ETF funds, and SOL is sprinting along the Layer-1 narrative—but if you zoom in a bit, most altcoins haven't caught up. This market doesn't feel like a full recovery, but rather a carefully selected group of people. What we should really ask is not "Is the bull market still around?", but "Where exactly is the money going?" From the perspective of cross-market linkage, there are several signals worth pondering: - BTC remains the anchor of the entire market. If it doesn't move, counterfeit companies dare not act recklessly; if it pants, counterfeit clutters cough up as well. This kind of synergy has been especially tight lately. - ETH's independence is strengthening; it no longer follows BTC's pace entirely but is more dominated by inflows and outflows of traditional funds and ETFs, which is actually a structural change. - SOL follows its own Layer-1 narrative, with less correlation with BTC, focusing more on ecosystem activity. - What's truly interesting is that AI sector TAO and WLD have been attracting money, while DOGE, a well-established meme, remains the most direct window for observing retail investor sentiment—once it moves, it signals dispersal🪝 Many people still use the old logic of pricing $ETH: mainnet gas consumption, on-chain fees, bull market speculation on DeFi and NFTs. But a core fact is unfolding: a large number of transactions continue to migrate to L2, and the Ethereum mainnet is slowly bidding farewell to "executing transactions" and officially transforming into the final cross-chain asset settlement layer. If you still use the old valuation model, it's easy to miss the underlying reasons for the long-term weakness in the current market. 1. Old narratives gradually fading Early market consensus: users transferring and interacting with contracts on the ETH mainnet continuously consumed gas, ETH kept burning, and deflationary expectations formed. Current situation: Layer 2 platforms like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base handle the vast majority of daily transactions. With mainnet trading activity declining and the gas center shifting downward, cyclical deflation driven by fee burns is unlikely to replicate the 2021 market. This is also one of the key factors why, despite continuous positive news for a long time, prices have been unable to open upward momentum. 2. New Narrative: The settlement layer brings three new demands 1. Final L2 settlement rigid requirement All Layer 2 asset withdrawals and cross-chain asset settlements must ultimately be implemented on Ethereum L1. As long as the Layer 2 ecosystem continues to expand, settlement demand will remain stable over the long term, forming the rigid underlying demand for ETH. 2. The staking system becomes the foundation of value. Currently, over 32% of ETH has entered the staking system, and validator exit queues remain at a low level, indicating a growing willingness to lock up long-term funds. The LST liquid staking sector is mature, with institutions participating in staking returns through ETFsHere are three things to watch for the latest crypto news tonight
BTC
Japanese yen
Cold wallets
BTC is still fluctuating near 63,000
It couldn't reach 63,500
Funds won't dare to chase too much
Fell below 63,000
The market may re-sell short-term leverage
Hold at 63,000
Only mainstream coins like ETH, Sol, and BNB have room for recovery
The biggest challenge tonight is macroeconomics
After news broke that the US and Japan were jointly stabilizing the yen,
BTC may be led by both the dollar and the yen
Gentle intervention
The US dollar weakened
BTC may continue to rebound
Violent intervention
The yen has surged sharply
Closing positions in carry trades
BTC may be directly inserted
The knockoff side is still very fragile
BTC did not drop sharply
But many small coins have already made a quick sell
This shows that the capital is not without sentiment
It's because the leverage is too tight
There's also a piece of cold wallet news to watch out for
The Coldcard seed generation issue continues to ferment
Reports mention that about 594 BTC were stolen
This incident serves as a reminder to everyone
BTC will not run away
But the tools you use to store BTC
If there's a problem at the bottom
It can still pierce through people
Tonight, there's no fear of BTC slowly shaking
Even more afraid of a macroscopic needle
A round of killing in the mountain stronghold
There are also security issues with wallets
The hardest thing in the crypto world isn't understanding the direction
It's a night when you survive the risks and come together
The above is just market observation
This does not constitute investment advice
Contract leverage is extremely risky
Investing carries risks; enter with cautionMy first leveraged trade: my account was completely wiped out in just five minutes
Many people might find it hard to believe.
When I first got involved, I didn't even understand the basic concept of margin before I rashly clicked open to enter. A sudden rapid spike swept through, and the account funds were completely wiped out.
This painful experience taught me a lesson: never jump into a completely unpredictable category.
After suffering losses, he gradually became more cautious. Now, whenever he prepares to open a position, he first checks the financial report timeline. Earnings reports are the biggest risk trigger for the market this week.
In the coming week, four heavyweight financial reports will be released, with Circle making the grand finale. SPCX will also release its first financial report, accompanied by massive unlocking pressure.
Microsoft has adjusted its depreciation calculation cycle to 25 years and lowered its capital expenditure forecasts.
The financial health of major tech companies directly affects the overall trajectory of US stocks. Whenever the US stock market experiences severe volatility, the digital asset market will also be affected accordingly.
Looking back at past market records, during earnings cycles, there is often a spike in shakeout, with the market first washing out high-leverage positions before the real trend direction emerges.
Based on this, it is not suitable to make heavy bets at this stage.
Before the financial results are announced, it is recommended to maintain a relatively light position and leave enough room for stop-loss settings,
Wait for clear direction signals from the market to appear before entering at the right time, which is more prudent. Dogecoin (DOGE) Real-Time Price Analysis (August 2, 2026)
1. Real-time Price Overview
As of August 2, 2026, Dogecoin (DOGE) quotes vary slightly across platforms. According to Binance Finance, DOGE/USD is currently trading at $0.070060, up about 0.20% in 24 hours. CoinMarketCap data shows DOGE rose 0.15% to $0.06978. Another analysis report points out that DOGE is trading at $0.0703, up 0.57% for the day. The price fluctuated between $0.06766 and $0.07059 for the day, with a market capitalization of approximately $10.86 billion.
2. Intraday trend review
DOGE entered August facing resistance below all major moving averages. After briefly dipping intraday to a low of $0.068115, it found temporary buying support but failed to achieve further breakouts. Trading volume was generally weak, with Binance's spot trading volume at only about $23 million, failing to reflect market confidence. On July 31, DOGE closed down 1.42%, at one point dropping to $0.068. Spot trading volume grew 116% in the past 24 hours, with a net spot inflow of about $558,000.
Looking at a longer time, DOGE has dropped about 40.35% year-to-date, with a one-year drop of 63.31%. Currently, the price is down about 85.5% from its 52-week high of $0.48391.
3. Market Drivers
Macro policy: The Fed kept rates unchanged at its July meeting, but internal divisions intensified, and hawkish remarks dampened hopes for a crypto market recovery. Investors remain cautious ahead of next week's U.S. employment report. Delays in U.S. market structure legislation (including the Clarity Act) may also impact market sentiment.
Spot Flow Surge: Dogecoin spot trading volume increased by 116% in the past 24 hours. Spot inflows were $30.83 million, outflows $30.27 million, with a net inflow of $558,000. Increased spot inflows may indicate that tokens are being transferred to exchanges for sale.
The derivatives market is extremely bullish: the global long-short position ratio shows net long positions at 73.1%, or 2.72; top Binance futures traders have a net long position ratio of 77.6%, with a position ratio as high as 3.46%. However, the spot taker buy-sell ratio is 0.8266, with spot seller volume exceeding buyers by about $8.2 million. Market open interest is significantly overwhelmed, while spot flow is net selling; historical experience shows that the side with more people is usually the one who gets squeezed out.
Historically Seasonal Weakness: Historically, Dogecoin has often performed weakly in August, with August 2021 rising 34.29% and August 2025 only up 1.77%, and all other years ending August lower.
4. Technical Aspects and Key Positions
Short-term outlook: DOGE is currently below all major moving averages. Short-term EMAs (12 and 26) are intersecting near the current price, without providing clear directional guidance. The MACD histogram has been compressed to zero, with both the MACD and signal lines stagnating at a slight negative level, indicating exhaustion of market energy. The RSI stands at 42.82, located in the "dead zone" between oversold and neutral levels. The Bollinger Bands %B value is 0.31, indicating DOGE is in the lower third of the compression range.
Key Resistances:
· $0.07394: 20-day exponential moving average
· $0.075: Convergence point of short-term resistance and upper boundary of the compression range
· $0.07950: 50-day exponential moving average
· $0.08: Next key position
· $0.10368: 200-day exponential moving average
Key supports:
· $0.07-0.071: The most closely watched support zone in the short term
· $0.068115: Today's intraday low, near-term structural support
· $0.065: The next key support level after breaking below 0.068
· $0.060-0.058: If 0.07 is breached, it may fall further into this area
Key note: DOGE has been trading below its 20-day moving average for 65 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest time ever, indicating that the short-term trend remains weak. However, the monthly stochastic RSI has entered the oversold zone, and selling pressure may be easing.
5. Summary
Dogecoin is currently trading within a narrow range of $0.067-0.071, indicating a severe lack of market vitality. $0.07 is the core position for bulls and bears—whales bought about 200 million DOGE (about $14 million) nearby, but buying has yet to bring a significant rebound. If the $0.07 support is breached, it could further test $0.065 or even $0.058; if the price can regain the $0.075-$0.08 range, short-term momentum may improve. The core current contradiction lies in the divergence between the extremely long position in the derivatives market and net selling in the spot market. In the short term, the flow trend will dominate the price direction.
$DOGE 📉 A single bullish candlestick doesn't mean the buyer has truly returned. Prices can rebound, but confidence may not recover in sync—this is the most easily misinterpreted signal in the current market.
Take $BEAT as an example. The chart looks good, but trading volume continues to shrink, and open interest is also declining. This combination usually indicates that selling pressure is easing rather than strong new capital entering the market to go long. The rebound quality is far less intense than the surface.
🔍 In today's market, liquidity has become increasingly demanding. Instead of sharing all the money with every altcoin, it is highly concentrated in a few projects with stronger narratives, deeper liquidity, and sustained attention. This is structural differentiation under the stock game of the game, not a broad-based rally.
🔥 Currently, the directions attracting capital attention include: $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP, $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, and $METIS. These projects rely more on stories and liquidity than on pure price fluctuations.
📊 The core indicators are still these: $BTC determines the overall market direction, $ETH reflects institutional capital flows, $SOL represents the aggressiveness of Layer 1, $DATA serves as the barometer for AI infrastructure narratives, $WLD tracks AI and digital identity sectors, $HYPE serves as a thermometer of market risk appetite, and $DOGE and $ZEC are used to observe changes in retail investor sentiment.
🔴 On the other hand, $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA still lack convincing upward momentum. A short-term rebound may occur, but its sustainability is questionable.
🚫 To put it bluntly, this is not a full-fledged knockoff season. This is a battle for liquidity, with only a few projects able to continuously receive new funding. Don't focus solely on the candlestick; focus on liquidity. That's where the trend is ultimately confirmed.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh🪝 Many people treat $SOL purely as a public chain narrative target, but overlook its core attribute: the high-beta asset that is standard in the crypto market. Simply put: using BTC as the benchmark, SOL tends to rise more strongly when the market rises; Once the market turns downward and liquidity tightens, the pullback will also be much stronger than that of mainstream coins. 1. Why does SOL naturally possess extremely high volatility? 1. Capital Structure: Retail investors are active, contract depth is relatively thin, liquidity is easily interrupted overnight and on weekends, and there are frequent spikes; 2. Ecosystem attributes: Memes and high-frequency trading account for the majority of on-chain activity, with distinct thematic trends and rapid capital flowing out; 3. Pricing logic: In the short term, it heavily depends on market risk appetite. Compared to ETH, it lacks stablecoins and the "capital buffer" accumulated by large RWAs. In a bull market, high beta is an advantage. When incremental funds enter the market, the rotation order is: BTC→ETH→SOL → knockoffs. SOL often becomes the preferred choice for capital targeting second-tier leaders, fully unleashing its elasticity. During the volatile or bear market phase, high beta is the biggest trap. When macro negative news and panic sells off the market, a large number of leveraged positions are concentrated in liquidation, making it easy for 'the market to dip slightly and SOL to pull back sharply.' 2. Current objective market status (current price 73.47) 📌 Short-term support: 70; Key Defensive Support: 68 📌 First Resistance: 76.5; Strong Resistance Range: 80 Currently following BTC in a narrow range, trading volume is flat, with no independent offensive momentum. Features: BTC holds the ground, SOLPeople say Trump has switched to drawing $CL crude oil lines, but it's really just this guy making money from it. (This old guy is lying in bed holding his phone. Sigh, Friday's comments seem like they can't rise any further. Forget it, just short the price and then another round of statements.)
But this is just making money; real conflict is impossible. A week ago, I posted that rising crude oil prices are unfavorable for inflation, but accelerating declines won't immediately lead inflation. So with only a few months left until the midterm elections, he doesn't dare to push oil prices too sharply. The final result is that by the end of this month or mid-September, the US and Iran will fully reconcile. Even if not, it will end with a soft landing and a final finish.
Of course, I'm not saying this to make everyone go all-in, nor to pressure me to be right. Mistakes require costs to bear, and I can accept them within my own limits.Let's start with the recent hacking incident.
Gold Cart was hacked, with approximately $88 million worth of Bitcoin stolen. But looking back at history, whether it was the Bybit incident in early 2025 or the FTX collapse in 2022, such panic events were often short-term disruptions. Over a longer cycle, Bitcoin's major trend will continue to break upward. This is market noise, not a change in direction.
But what truly needs to be watched out is the August curse with the official opening.
Bitcoin's historical average return in August was -7%, making it the worst month of the year, with August and September typically the most bearish months. Now officially enter this window.
In the short term, the two core watersheds must be closely watched. 62,700 is currently the most critical support zone for trading volume, having provided strong support multiple times before. If the closing line breaks below it, it will trigger an accelerated downward plunge. 67,000 is the core resistance level; only a strong breakout and a solid closing line can confirm the start of a new main upward wave.
A highly damaging signal is flashing behind — a bearish crossover has appeared on the 3-day random RSI. Over the past year, every time this indicator appears in a bearish crossover, Bitcoin subsequently pulls back at least 30%. Although the indicator is not 100% absolute, the high win rate over the past year is something we should be very wary of. Meanwhile, open interest and funding rates remain high, while prices are declining, indicating that the momentum for downward long-term leverage washing has not yet been fully released.
At the macro level, the "Clarity Act" on August 7 will bring the biggest dark horse variable. When the last bill was announced to be delayed, Bitcoin plunged about 38% in a short period. If it is delayed again this time, the market will face an extremely severe downward shock next week.
Strategically, I am very clear. Continue to hold your long bottom position, never closing out arbitrarily due to short-term sentiment, to avoid missing out on the big bottom. The ultimate bottom-fishing range is locked in between 60,000 and 47,000, with the bottom expected to form around the fourth quarter. Once the price falls into this range, it will trigger the most aggressive accumulation mode.
Keep a close eye on the 62,700 defensive line and the August 7 bill update, holding your position firmly.In July, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index rose 1.1%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.6%, a gap of 7.6 percentage points. This is not because money suddenly stopped believing in AI. On the contrary, about $20 billion still flowed into technology ETFs in July. What truly changed is: capital is no longer willing to chase a handful of AI leaders at any price. Microsoft and Amazon have proven that cloud and AI can be profitable, and the demand for storage and chips has not disappeared. But when valuations, capital expenditures, and earnings expectations are all maxed out, as long as the company "doesn't continue to beat expectations," the stock price will crash first. So this round of crashes is not yet the collapse of the AI industry. It's more like a reset in pricing and weighting: before, as long as you got involved in AI, prices would rise; now you have to use cash flow. The story of AI continues, but the stage of buying with eyes closed may already be over.Crowding and Crowding List
The more orderly the positions are, the more you need to check whether the price is still willing to cooperate.
$GRVT Current rate -0.0750%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.101%, at the 39th percentile of the most recent sample. Prices rise in sync with holdings; short-term trading is not just about replenishing old positions. The historical percentile of the same coin is not extreme; let's first observe the structure of the regular price portfolio. The historical sample contains only 18 settlement points, so the quantiles are currently only auxiliary.
$HOME Current rate -0.0440%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.090%, at the 39th percentile of the most recent sample. Reducing positions after a 15-minute rise is more like a push for short position filling or overall withdrawal, with new bullish positions yet to be confirmed. Positions are declining, crowded positions are retreating first, and the current focus is when the pace of reduction will slow down.
$SATS Current rate -0.0362%, closed in the past 24 hours -0.087%, at the 2nd percentile of the most recent sample. Prices are rising, and positions are also rising, with short-term funds expanding their risk exposure. Bears are paying a price, but prices rise along with increased positions. Currently, this is unfriendly to bears, and the pullback will determine the strength of this phase.$RSR — RESERVE RIGHTS
The silence before the storm is beginning to disappear. Buyers are returning, altcoin momentum is strengthening, and the market is once again showing signs that capital may be rotating toward assets that have remained compressed for too long.
$RSR is trading near $0.001301, up approximately 4.58%. The visible gain suggests positive momentum, but the full volume figure is obscured in the image, so the strength of participation cannot be assessed confidently from this snapshot alone.
The next major level to watch is $0.00134–$0.00136. A clean breakout above this region with rising volume could confirm continuation and attract additional momentum traders. If dominance continues shifting toward altcoins, $RSR may benefit from broader market rotation.
The immediate support zone is between $0.00124 and $0.00130. Holding this region would keep buyers in control. A breakdown below $0.00119 would weaken the recovery and increase the possibility of another move lower.
EP: $0.00124–$0.00130
TP1: $0.00136
TP2: $0.00145
TP3: $0.00158
SL: $0.00118Solana is showing fresh energy, and traders are paying attention. $SOL /USDT is trading around $73.19, up 1.72% in the last 24 hours. After dropping to $70.58, buyers stepped in with confidence and pushed the price back above $73. This strong recovery shows that Solana still has solid buying interest despite recent market pressure. Here are the latest market numbers: Current Price: $73.19 24H High: $73.67 24H Low: $70.58 24H Volume: 458.29K SOL 24H Turnover: 33.20M USDT The 15-minute chart shows$SNDK dropped 55% in 36 days, while BTC took 268 days and silver 169 days for peers to pull back, with the storage sector's correction seven to eight times faster. Pre-market panic has already begun to recover, with Micron, SanDisk, and Seagate all turning positive, but the shadow of Kioxia's earnings last week falling short of expectations and a 10% ADR drop has yet to fade. After the market closed on August 5, SanDisk released its earnings report. The direction of AI enterprise SSD demand and NAND contract prices will determine whether this correction bottoms out or falls again. Focus on changes in management's wording regarding next quarter's gross margin guidance.
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, the largest single-day gain in history. #折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance was loweredSOUTH KOREA'S INTENSIFIED LIVERIDGE CRACKDOWN COULD RESHAPE VOLATILITY $BTC
📉 South Korea's financial regulators have just applied a sledgehammer to leveraged ETFs – allowing an emergency reduction in the leverage ratio from 2x to 1x without any beneficiary vote. This is a huge shift: instead of cleaning up the aftermath of a crash, they stifle volatility before it breaks out.
For traders, the message is loud: the era of cheap, "turbo" leverage is shrinking. The underlying margin has already tripled to 30 million KRW, and they are estimating a leverage limit of 20% plus mandatory simulation trading testing for large participants. This is a direct blow to the very chain of liquidations that usually seeps into the $BTC.
#OKXTraderVoices #NewHereStartHere This is pure nonsense, just my personal take:
1. Launch a mainnet that uses SHIB as gas
2. Merge $BEAT $BTC ONE, and $TREAT into one single token
3. Make SHIBOSHIS the official NFT and give them a small airdrop allocation
4. Shib Land – honestly I don’t see anyone building a metaverse on it, that stuff is insanely hard, so just fold it into the same merged token
5. $SNDK
??? – the new merged token
SHIBOSHIS – NFT
$SHI – stablecoin
Call it Shib Layer or ShibChain, whatever.
I honestly think the only way to save this ecosystem is to rip everything up and start fresh. Keeping the same old playbook that’s already proven to fail isn’t gonna cut it.
@shibarium_ @kaaldhairya#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is imminent. 1. Financial reports support the bottom, proving the bubble to be false
The first financial report after listing is released; as long as revenue and Starlink user numbers meet targets, it can break doubts about "purely storytelling" and provide solid fundamental support
2. Unlocking is about all negative news being exhausted, not a sell-off
The pessimistic expectation of unlocking the 100 billion yuan limit has already driven the stock price to nearly halved in advance, leaving no doubt about the boot hitting the ground; Musk and core long-term shareholders will not make large reductions, so the actual selling pressure is much smaller than the paper volume. When the circulating market expands, it can actually accommodate large institutional funds entering the market
3. High short positions = natural upward fuel
34% of the outstanding shares were shorted, and the bears have already made substantial gains. As long as the stock price rebounds slightly, a large number of short sellers will close out positions to take profits, and the buying orders from closed positions will further push the price higher, easily triggering a short squeeze
4. Exclusive track with no competitors
Recyclable rockets, Starlink global broadband, Starship Deep Space Exploration—all are monopoly businesses unique worldwide, with no competitors of the same scale, no ceiling for long-term growth, and are scarce core assets like $SPCX U.S. Treasury yields have soared to their highest level in 2019, all due to Walsh's repeated actions and his actions.
1. What everyone values when buying US Treasuries is stability. When Wash first took office, he loudly declared he would crack down on inflation, but inflation remained high. When the Fed voted, he held back, not even mentioning whether there would be future rate hikes.
This kind of verbal threat, but actually doing nothing, made bond-buying institutions sweat profusely and completely refuse to trust him.
2. The surge in U.S. Treasury yields simply means that no one wants government bonds anymore, and interest rates must be raised to find someone to take over. Not only does Wash not only break his promises, but he also abandoned his tradition of early policy announcements.
When people can't understand the direction of policy, their long-term US Treasuries become hot potatoes. So many choose to sell; the more people sell, the higher the yield naturally pushed to its highest level in 2019.
3. The market sell-off was actually an ultimatum expressing dissatisfaction, but Walsh had no intention of backing down; instead, he began to pursue internal centralization.
He not only silenced other internal officials and forbade them from speaking to outsiders, but also set up a dedicated working group himself, taking decision-making power into his own hands. Turning the Federal Reserve into a one-man institution, and in the future, cooperating with the Trump administration to forcibly cut interest rates.
4. The Federal Reserve has lost its independence and certainty, and the foundation of the traditional financial system has also been shaken.
When traditional government bonds are no longer safe and policies are decided by one person, safe-haven funds in the market will inevitably have to seek new ways out.
For the crypto market, the crisis of trust in the U.S. Treasury system is actually a moment to highlight the value of decentralized assets.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Fundamental Research Report $SHIB / Shiba Inu (Meme/Pay) $3.20
One-sentence conclusion: Shiba Inu ($SHIB) has an overall score of 48/100, rated as an early-stage project, but lacks validation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's start with the project: Shiba Inu (token $SHIB), Meme/Payments track. Focusing on ETH Meme + Shibarium. Benchmarking against DOGE and FLOKI. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, and user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Some require medium-value capture (staking/discounting/governance). Let's look together with peers (unified standards, no cross-sector comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Shiba Inu $3.00B, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. For FDV, Shiba Inu $4.20B, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Shiba Inu $2.00M, DOGE undisclosed, FLOKI undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Shiba Inu has not disclosed, DOGE has not been disclosed, and FLOKI has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Final judgment: Insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (Rating 48/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risk warning: Short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. The above judgment is based on publicly available data and does not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions need to be revised when key indicators deviate significantly.
That's all for the content—judge for yourself.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitThe 8% surge in $PI ahead of the Protocol 26 node upgrade deadline on August 11th looks all too familiar, doesn't it? Every time the development team releases an upgrade schedule, the price jumps, but unfortunately, previous surges have been short-lived, cooling down as soon as the deadline approaches.
The biggest challenge right now is the supply and demand equation. The selling pressure from the token unlocks is immense; approximately 1.71 billion $PI will be released into the market over the next year, with over 128 million USD already consumed in August alone. Meanwhile, trading volume remains quite weak, and external buying power isn't strong enough to offset that waiting supply.Starting from the Nasdaq and cryptocurrency trends, the divergence cycle has now reached its midpoint. The root cause is the Federal Reserve's high interest rates continuously draining crypto capital, while US stocks rely on profitability to absorb massive hot money. The pricing logic of the two is completely different. Before the rate cut policy is officially implemented, liquidity conditions remain unchanged, making it difficult for Bitcoin and the Nasdaq to resume a synchronized rise and fall in a linked market, maintaining a clear pattern of one strong and one weak.🇬🇧
The market sent a very interesting message over the last two days.
First, tensions in the Middle East escalated and reports emerged about the U.S. embassy evacuation.
Bitcoin barely reacted.
Then Trump announced a de-escalation and called off the planned strikes.
Again... almost no reaction from $BTC
That tells me one thing.
Crypto is becoming far less sensitive to geopolitical headlines.
The old narrative of "war = buy Bitcoin" isn't driving the market like it used to.
Right now, the real catalyst is dollar liquidity.
That's where capital is paying attention. #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
The real test for SPCX may not be the August 4th earnings report, but the stock stock unlocking two days later.
SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings report after listing after the market closed on August 4.
According to the lock-in arrangement, on the second full trading day after the financial report is released, up to 20% of eligible insiders and employee shares can start trading.
The largest share involved is about 911.5 million shares, with a market capitalization estimated at about $109.2 billion based on recent prices.
This number is scary, but one thing must be made clear first:
Unlocking does not mean that $109.2 billion is being dumped into the market simultaneously.
The exact meaning of 'unban' is:
These stocks, which were originally unsellable, are now eligible for sale.
Holders may sell or continue to hold.
However, even if only part of the market chooses to cash out, it could significantly change the market's original supply-demand structure.
In the early days of SPCX's listing, the number of freely tradable shares was limited. With a small amount of circulating share, even a small amount of capital can cause significant price fluctuations.
After the lock-up was lifted, the market faced no longer just "whether anyone wants to buy," but also answered:
How many early shareholders are willing to sell?
Can the open market absorb new supply?
Therefore, this time we need to look at three things separately.
First, can the first financial report prove a high valuation?
The market needs to see growth in businesses like Starlink and launch services, while also assessing how much cash is being consumed by investments in heavy rockets, AI, and infrastructure.
Second, how the company describes the future.
For newly listed high-valuation companies, the numbers from the past quarter are only part of the story; future growth and funding needs may be even more important.
Third, the volume-price relationship after the lock-up was lifted.
If trading volume increases significantly but the stock price remains stable, it indicates the market is digesting new supply.
If even positive earnings reports cannot support prices and the rebound weakens after the lock-up lifts, it indicates that supply pressure may exceed new demand.
Therefore, both "lifting the lock-up will lead to a drop" and "good earnings will lead to a rise" are too simplistic.
The real question isn't whether all $109.2 billion will be sold, but whether, once new stock supply emerges, the market will still be willing to maintain the original valuation.
What do you think will be the biggest challenge for SPCX going forward?
A: Can the first financial report prove growth?
B: Pressure on stock supply after the lock-up is lifted
C: The current valuation itself is already too high
Just leave a letter in the comments.
The above is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice#亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元: Bet or bubble
🔥 Amazon just threw out a $50 billion check aimed at OpenAI. This wasn't rumors, nor intentions—it was real money that had been fully credited.
Based on this round of financing, OpenAI's valuation soared to $852 billion. Amazon acquired about 5% of the shares.
But if you look closely at the details of this transaction, you'll find that the interesting aspects go far beyond just valuation.
The $50 billion was paid out in two installments. In February this year, they first invested 15 billion, and the remaining 35 billion was originally triggered by two conditions—OpenAI going public, or achieving AGI-level technological breakthroughs. In the end, neither condition was met, and Amazon still transferred all the remaining money.
Why? Because in April this year, OpenAI renegotiated its cloud service contract with Microsoft. Previously, Microsoft had almost exclusive control over OpenAI's cloud services, and AWS simply couldn't get involved. With the contract changed, AWS officially obtained the right to provide computing power to OpenAI. Amazon immediately spent the remaining 35 billion.
This 50 billion yuan isn't buying equity, but AWS's ticket to enter the AI computing power battle.
Even more ruthless is Amazon's strategic layout. With 50 billion invested in OpenAI in one hand, and with the right hand a maximum of 33 billion dollars to Anthropic, 18 billion has already arrived. The world's two leading AI labs are both tied down by Amazon with money.
Why are you tied up? Push your own Trainium chip. Both labs use Trainium for training, and AWS's Bedrock platform provides both models for customers to call. With chips being used and models being sold, AWS has suddenly blocked two key nodes in the AI industry chain.
AWS reported $42.2 billion in Q2 revenue, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth since 2021. Jassy's exact words were, "AWS is thriving."
Meanwhile, OpenAI has nearly 1 billion weekly active users, and its projected computing power expenditure by 2030 has been raised to $750 billion.
On one side, cloud giants use AI labs as strategic fulcrums to spend money relentlessly; on the other, labs continue to burn computing power with funds—once this cycle starts, money and computing power will only become more concentrated.
OpenAI took the money to keep buying computing power, AWS took the money to expand capacity, and Trainium, once scaled, could compete with Nvidia. On the surface, this 50 billion yuan deal is a valuation game, but at its core, it is a key move in the computing power war.
Share your thoughts in the comments: do you think Amazon's 50 billion spent was worth it? 👇SOL community speed reached 0.93 times: Tone and added attention are viewed separately
SOL's hot numbers aren't hard to read; the challenge is not to mix tone and funding direction.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 16 mentions of SOL in one hour at 17:00 on August 2nd (China time), including 16 x mentions and 0 news reports; The total volume in 24 hours was 414.
The latest hour is 0.93 times the hourly average for Long Windows, which is about 7% lower than the 24-hour average, and can be classified as 'roughly close to the Long Window Average.' This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations.
The tone of the text is bullish at 44%, bearish at 19%, and neutral at about 37%, currently indicating a clear bullish bias. 24-hour bullish 55%, bearish 11%; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in the discussion structure, rather than directly deriving a price target.
I will draw these two lines separately. If the tone is too heavy but the speed of mention is slower, it means the current discussion is more positive, but the new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions are rising and bearish are dominant, it may be risk or fault news attracting people. Even if the hype and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying.
Source is another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be reposted repeatedly; The more concentrated the source, the more the next window needs confirmation. News mentions that an increase does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verifying standard.
Within twenty-four hours, SOL's X and news mentions were 400 and 14 times, respectively; One hour means 16 and 0 times. If short windows are more focused on X than long windows, sensitivity should be increased to forwarding and single narratives; If the proportion of news increases, also check whether the same material is actually being restated.
What really matters are SOL's on-chain transaction success rate, fees, active addresses, and main application usage, combined with spot trading, perpetual contract funding rates, and open interest. These data answer usage needs and leverage participation, and popular rankings cannot replace them.
Time differences also need to be watched for. The 414 24-hour samples span different market periods; dividing by 24 is just for comparison convenience and does not mean the same volume of discussion every hour. A single deviation from the mean should be observed first, not as a trend completion.
How can you tell that it was just noise? The next round of mentions increased, but the tone quickly returned to neutral. This time, the sense of direction was mostly due to a small sample size. If the speed of mentions continues to rise and the sources expand from a single community, attention will gradually stabilize. In the end, what can change judgments is still continuous data, not a louder slogan.
Let's note three things for now: SOL discussions generally follow the long-window average, while the short-term window's tone is clearly more favorable, and it's almost entirely driven by X. If the speed continues and the sources become more diverse, and transactions and on-chain data also echo, this observation can be pushed forward further; Before that, put them on the watch list and don't rush to run.After the market on August 3, Palantir; after the market on August 4, AMD and SpaceX; before the market on August 5, Circle
These earnings reports are coming up. In the last round, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple all exceeded revenue expectations, but their stock performances were completely divergent. The market now looks beyond just "whether there is growth" to whether the growth is sustainable, whether capital expenditures are justified, and whether the guidance for the next quarter is strong enough.
Coinbase's revenue dropped about 18.5% year-over-year, Robinhood's crypto revenue also declined significantly, but Tether delivered an extremely impressive profit. Now the pressure basically falls on Circle.
Personally, I am most focused on Circle. It is not just a stablecoin issuer but more like the core target of crypto dollar infrastructure. USDC circulation, interest income, channel revenue sharing, and management's judgment on the future interest rate environment will all directly affect the market's valuation of it.
$XCRCL
Besides that, AMD is watched to see if its AI chips can continue to gain market share, and Palantir is watched to see if its high valuation can be justified by its performance.
#财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴 #财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴
Next week marks the final peak of earnings season, with over a quarter of the S&P 500 components reporting. SpaceX, AMD, SanDisk, Western Digital, and headliner Circle have a packed four-day schedule.
The most watched is definitely SpaceX, releasing its first earnings report since going public after the market closes on August 5. A bigger issue is that 911.5 million shares will be unlocked the same day, while only 640 million shares are currently circulating. Shorts have already crowded in early, with 219.3 million shares shorted, accounting for 34% of tradable shares. The stock price has dropped from 200 to below 110; if this earnings report doesn’t deliver solid results, the unlocking day could trigger another sell-off.
AMD reports after the market closes the same day. The AI chip sector has been struggling recently; Microsoft and Amazon’s cloud businesses are accelerating, but AI hardware stocks are falling. Whether AMD’s earnings can hold up will largely determine the market’s answer to how long "AI chip demand can last."
Storage faces even greater pressure. Kioxia’s earnings last week missed expectations, causing its ADR to drop 10% immediately. SanDisk and Western Digital report after the market closes on Wednesday. Storage stocks have already fallen sharply this month; SK Hynix has retraced over 40% from its high, and SanDisk dropped nearly 40% in July. If these earnings are still "not good enough," the storage sector may continue to be hammered down.
Circle reports before the market opens on Thursday, with Wall Street expecting earnings per share of $0.19 and revenue of $734.7 million. Bernstein cut its price target from 190 to 140 before the earnings. The market is most concerned about two things—whether USDC circulation can surpass 80 billion, and whether the renewal of the distribution agreement with Coinbase will compress profit margins. As the first stablecoin stock, Circle’s earnings report is also a test of the crypto industry’s compliance narrative.
Last week, Microsoft and Amazon proved with their results that AI spending can indeed generate returns, with both stocks surging. But AI hardware and storage stocks continue to face pressure. These upcoming earnings reports will basically decide whether this correction is a temporary bottom or if there are deeper troughs ahead. While BTC gently swayed in the weekend evening breeze, SKHYNIX's market was like a tightly compressed spring. Tonight, $TRUMP and $WLD drained the most active liquidity from the market, while news that the #CLARITY Act missed the recess window has shrouded mid-cap altcoins including SKHYNIX in regulatory uncertainty. The 4-hour and 1-hour volatility contracted simultaneously, and the market's anticipation was intense—both bulls and bears were lowering their voices, waiting for the first shot.
First, look at the 4-hour drawing board, which determines the direction. The recent swing point sequence HL→LH→LL→LH→HL→LH, resembles a trail of gradually declining footprints. Bears completed a downward BOS at 884.17, marking the most critical blow for the entire structure. Judging by this strike alone, the direction was off the air. But the OI quadrant tells us an interesting detail: price_down_oi_down—prices are falling, and open interest is also decreasing. This isn't a big net to build short positions, but rather old bulls massively selling their chips. The bears did not press the advantage but chose to pocket the advantage. This means most of the downward momentum has been exhausted, but don't expect an immediate reversal, as the buying funds are also watching from the sidelines. On the 4-hour chart, six effective regions are densely arranged, forming step-downward steps, each bearing the weight of the trapping disk.
Looking at another hour, the market gave a slightly different clue. Structural events occurred in CHoCH, indicating a bullish direction, with a price of 1137.76, marking the first micro-level rebound. However, the latest Delta is -8960, and active sell orders are still suppressed on intraday trading; CVD has not shown divergence—prices are rebounding, but "money" has not clearly bought in, so the quality of the rebound is not high. The funding rate is -0.0011, at a 0.03 rank. This figure indicates that very few people dare to hold long positions in the perpetual market. While the short squeeze is crowded, it also fuels future short squeezes. Looking at the strong liquidation clues: On July 29, 30, and 31, there were consecutive sharp declines in OI, with a single candlestick on the 31st showing a 18.78% drop in OI. Those long undershadows are the scratches from the bullish lever being cleaned. After scars, recurrence often occurs.
Overall, my tendency is clear: the 4-hour bearish structure has not yet recovered, but the 1-hour oversold rebound has already begun, making it the most appropriate definition of a "corrective rebound within a bearish trend." The direction is not to blindly buy the dip, but to wait for the rebound to reach key resistance before using small positions to look for opportunities.
Provide a specific plan. If the price rebounds to the 1130-1150 range, especially near 1150 if stagnation or a long upper shadow appears, you can enter the market to short, with a stop loss above 1200, targeting 1040 and 960, and keeping your position within 15%. This is a trend-following strategy based on the 4-hour BOS short structure. If the price retests 930-950 and the 1-hour CHoCH low is not broken, you can use a 10% position for a short long wave, with a stop loss of 900 and targets at 1050 and 1137. Note that once it breaks below 900, the 4-hour bears will completely take over, rendering all short-term long logic invalid. When the rebound stagnates, consider chasing shorts.
On the news side, the "CLARITY Act missing the recess window" is not an isolated event; it directly delayed the implementation of the U.S. digital asset regulatory framework, making it difficult for institutional funds to price compliance premiums for altcoins. Over the past week, several technical progress announcements in the SKHYNIX ecosystem that should have stirred short-term sentiment turned into one-off pulses due to a lack of macro support. Instead, funds flowed into narrative-independent stocks like TRUMP and PEPE, leaving SKHYNIX in a forgotten corner. The large order data was unusually quiet, and the main players seemed unwilling to attract attention at this point.
Therefore, rather than betting on an immediate reversal, it's better to wait for the market to make its statements clear. When the price repeatedly rubs around 1000, do you prefer to short at 1150 or go long at 950? Feel free to share your plans in the comments section, so we can observe the next steps of the funds together.
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 $SKHYNIX $COTI $FIGHT $WLD $TRUMP $1000 PEPE $ESPORTS $DOGE On-chain transfers and average holding time — holders are losing patience
⏳ The on-chain metric "Average Coin Age" shows that DOGE's holding time has dropped by 8.2% over the past 7 days, indicating that old coins are starting to move, with some long-term holders selling or switching hands. This is a short-term bearish signal.
📤 Transfer volume analysis: In the past 24 hours, there were 17 large transfers worth over $1 million, totaling about 28 million DOGE (about $1.96 million), a 35% decrease from the previous day. Reduced activity in large transfers indicates less whale activity.
📉 The number of daily active addresses is about 42,000, a significant drop from 58,000 in mid-July. The number of transfers is about 28,000 per day, at a low level since 2025. On-chain activity is lukewarm and lacks intrinsic momentum.
📊 Profit/Loss status: Currently, only 34% of $DOGE holdings are profitable, meaning two-thirds of holders are at floating losses. These losing chips are mainly concentrated in the 0.075 - 0.085 range. Therefore, 0.075 is a significant resistance; once it rebounds to this range, it will encounter selling pressure for unwinding.
🔹 On the support side, around 0.068, a large amount of locked hands is concentrated in the gloves; if it falls to this range, the selling interest will decrease, potentially forming a short-term bottom.
🧠 Conclusion: $DOGE On-chain data is bearish, holders lack confidence, but are close to being oversold. To rebound, external forces are needed (such as a BTC surge or Musk's orders). Otherwise, the probability of a bearish decline seeking a bottom is even higher.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is about to be lifted. #财报观察员: Next Thursday's lottery draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale I think many people are mistaken about MU's recent rebound.
Many people see it as an oversold rebound.
But I prefer to understand it as:
The market is repricing AI hardware.
Recently, Micron followed the entire semiconductor sector in a sharp decline.
Many people started shouting:
AI capital spending has peaked, and the storage cycle has ended.
As a result, Microsoft and Amazon both released their earnings reports, and management not only failed to cut back on AI investment, but instead continued to raise capital expenditures.
The market suddenly realized:
What is truly lacking is not the GPU.
Instead, it's HBM and DRAM behind the GPU.
That's why MU was able to fix things quickly.
Because AI servers can be changed models, but high-bandwidth memory and storage demands will not disappear out of thin air.
However, I'm not in a hurry to chase after it now.
The reason is simple.
Improving fundamentals doesn't mean the stock price will keep rising.
MU's biggest risk now is not demand.
It's about expectations.
If the next earnings report continues to prove HBM supply shortages and data center customers continue to increase procurement, the market will continue to revise valuations upward.
But if management starts mentioning customer inventory adjustments, order deferrals, or if next year's capital expenditures start to slow,
Even if the performance remains strong, the stock price may fall first.
This is the most interesting aspect of cyclical stocks.
It never trades today.
It's about the supply and demand relationship six months later.
So now, when I look at MU, I focus on three questions:
* Have major AI companies continued to expand CapEx?
* Is HBM supply still tight?
* Has Micron continued to raise its earnings guidance?
If the answer to these three questions is still "yes."
I won't change my opinion just because of short-term fluctuations.
But if capital expenditure starts to cool, I will be more cautious than watching MU drop by 5% or 10%.
Many people think MU is trading memory prices.
I increasingly feel that what it really deals with is:
How much longer can global AI infrastructure construction go crazy?
For personal market observation only, DYOR. $MU Social sentiment and the Musk factor — heat has dropped to freezing point
📉 According to LunarCrush data, $DOGE had 3,200 social mentions in the past 24 hours, down 43% from the daily average of 5,600 in July. The Sentiment Score was -0.18, which is mildly negative and remained negative for 8 consecutive days.
🐦 Musk has not posted any tweets about $DOGE for nearly a week, focusing on Starship test flights and the launch of Grok 3.0. Historically, every time Musk mentioned DOGE, the price rose by an average of 12% within 48 hours, but then retreated. The current "Musk expectations" have been forgotten by the market.
📊 Google search trends for "Dogecoin" have only 18 popularity (peak 100), falling within the 5% range at the lowest level in the past two years. Retail investor interest is extremely low, but this often corresponds to a price bottom.
📈 Positive signals: Negative sentiment on social media often coincides with price lows. When retail investors are completely disappointed, it's often a smart entry opportunity. However, there is currently a lack of driving factors, and relying solely on sentiment reversals is unlikely to sustain the rally.
🔮 Prediction: If Musk suddenly mentions $DOGE in the coming week (such as related to X Pay), the price could instantly surge by 15-20%. If not, the price will continue to fall to 0.068 or even 0.065. It is recommended to closely follow his Twitter updates. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is about to be lifted. #财报观察员: Next Thursday's lottery draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale