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Deep in the primary market, a $500 million sum is flowing into new technologies challenging lithography giants, while the hedge funds behind it have just undergone a public market position liquidation.
Public market stock positions are forced to shift to large institutions, and the aftershocks of selling pressure at trading terminals have yet to fully subside.
Safe-haven funds are withdrawing from the highly liquid secondary market, shifting their focus to the long-term core semiconductor processes.
This position realization indicates that tightening liquidity in the secondary market has not weakened capital's long-term bets on the underlying AI computing power bottleneck, but the duration of funds has been extended.
If startup processes complete their first phase of engineering validation within the next few months, market concerns about AI hardware inflation will ease. However, once traditional lithography giants downgrade and launch alternatives, this optimistic outlook will quickly fade.
If R&D progress slows down and capital continues to sink, risk appetite in the primary market will further shrink, and valuation corrections in publicly traded tech stocks will accelerate due to the loss of technical story support—unless macro liquidity becomes more relaxed than expected.
When the order flow of mainstream foundries reverses, the grand narrative of "low-cost lithography breakthroughs" will be completely disproven.
In the next seven days, the most important thing to watch is whether the institutions taking on the fund's open market positions will make new rebalancing moves.
#标普收盘再创新高. Expected rise to 8,000 points #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has oil price risk cooled down? #Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大Everyone is trying to get ahead of the same $BTC at the $67K breakout.
Cumulative net long positions are now close to +$500 million, the highest reading BTC has recorded around this price range across the entire range.
The position is much larger than BTC's last time during this trade, and the price has yet to reach the range resistance.
Maybe they are right.
But if the breakout fails, the market will face the largest concentration of trapped long positions at this level of the range.
Another rejection from the range resistance is likely to force these exposures to close positions through range pullbacks.🔍Yao Coin AOB (All on BINANCE) Why is it worth continuous observation?
Since the creation of the block, I have fully reconstructed 153,109 Transfers of AOB and tracked 8,199 historical holding addresses. On-chain data shows that AOB is experiencing explosive growth from early addresses, entering the stage of "chip sedimentation and high turnover competition."
📊 Chip Structure
Current holding addresses: 2,404
Historical cleared positions: 5,795, exit rate 70.68%
Excluding LP, Top 10 holdings account for only 14.97%
Top 50/Top 100 holdings are 43.69%/59.42% respectively
613 diamond-hand addresses hold about 33.69%
Among them, "continuous accumulation diamond hands" hold about 13.71%
This means that although AOB has a certain degree of concentration, the chips are not extremely concentrated in a few addresses, and early selling pressure has already undergone a large-scale release.
🔥 Trading Activity
Data snapshot as of the evening of August 8:
24H trading volume about $992,000
Liquidity about $154,000
Trading volume is about 6.4 times the liquidity
126 high-frequency trading addresses hold about 12.90%
157 swing trading addresses hold about 9.54% #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Watching $SPCX today, I feel this rally isn't just a sudden wave of sentiment. There are rumors that Falcon 9 will no longer accept forward group orders after 2028, and funds prefer to see this as resources concentrating on Starship. Whether long-term profit margins have improved remains to be seen. What's even more interesting is that after rising 15.8% the day before yesterday, the bears haven't fully exited; continuing to rise could easily trigger a pullback. Combined with the spread of news of Argus and JPMorgan raising target prices, buying is indeed more positive than I expected. But the faster it rises, the less likely I am to chase; let's first see if this rebound can hold steady.
$BTC $ETH 💡 In short: A Bitcoin proposal called BIP-110 entered the mandatory signaling phase at block 961632, but miner support was only 2.53%, far below the activation threshold. It wanted to temporarily limit on-chain non-monetary data, but ended up pushing the community to the edge of a hard fork. 🔍 Let's break down several core questions: What exactly does BIP-110 intend to do? Answer: It was proposed by anonymous developer Dathon Ohm, aiming to add a consensus limit to Bitcoin that lasts about one year. Most new output scripts are limited to 34 bytes OP_RETURN capped to 83 bytes, some data push and witness elements are limited to 256 bytes, and some taproot features are temporarily narrowed. Unspent output that existed before activation is not restricted. Supporters say these restrictions suppress non-monetary data such as inscriptions, reducing storage and bandwidth costs for node operators. Q: What happens during the forced signaling phase? A: Starting from block 961632, nodes executing BIP-110 start rejecting blocks without version bit 4. Regular nodes accept both. Of the previous 2016 blocks, only 51 were signaled by miners, accounting for 2.53%, far from the 55% threshold for early activation. A minority branch briefly appeared but quickly fell behind the main chain. With such a low signal rate and no large number of miners joining, competitive chains struggle to sustain. Ask why Saylor and Core warning: If the CLARITY Act does not achieve substantial progress before September 15, it will be very difficult to pass again
Reason for the stuck: Senate Democratic leader Schumer joined forces with some Democratic lawmakers to block the bill from being voted on before the recess, demanding continued negotiations.
1. Supplement: What is the CLARITY Act?
Officially named the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, it is the most important crypto legislation in the United States:
- Clearly define the regulatory boundaries between the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Commission).
- Decentralized tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum can be defined as digital goods
- End the long-standing regulatory chaos in the U.S. characterized by "law enforcement through litigation without written laws."
- If implemented, it will greatly attract Wall Street institutional funds into the crypto market
2. Why is September 15th considered a life-or-death day?
1. Constraints on the U.S. Congressional Schedule
After September, Congress quickly moved into election-related agendas, with many legislative topics directly shelved and the remaining effective deliberation window for the year basically closed.
2. Political cycle risks
If the bill is delayed past 2026, when the new parliamentary elections come, the number of seats and party positions will change, and the entire bill will have to be redrafted and redone, essentially starting over—at least 1-2 years delayed.
3. The subtext of the White House advisor's original words: It's not a temporary delay, but rather that this legislative opportunity is completely voided.
3. Impact projection on the crypto market
Scenario 1: Progress on legislation before 9.15 (positive)
- With expectations restored and institutional funds redeploying, the overall crypto market is likely to experience a wave of sentiment rally
- Crypto concept stocks (such as Coinbase) strengthened
Scenario 2: No progress at all before 9.15 (Negative news)
1. Short-term (1-4 weeks)
Market sentiment has plummeted, with more pressure from altcoins facing corrections; Bitcoin is relatively resilient to declines;
Biggest blow: institutional funds continue to hesitate, hesitant to enter large-scale markets (institutions need regulatory certainty most)
2. Medium to Long Term (3-12 months)
The U.S. has returned to "SEC-style regulation," lacking unified federal laws;
Regulatory uncertainty has persisted for a long time, making it difficult for a bull market to rely on U.S. policy catalysts;
The industry will increasingly shift to regions where crypto regulations have already been enacted, such as the EU, Middle East, and Singapore.
4. Current Market Strategic Points
1. The market has already partially priced in the expectation of a delay in the bill, so the news may not immediately plunge, which is considered a "negative in expectations."
2. Next, focus on whether the Senate will arrange a procedural vote in early September, rather than just verbal negotiations
3. If the bill is completely hopeless, market-driven logic will shift entirely back to the Fed interest rate and dollar macro environment, with policy themes taking a back seat. #Storage stocks selling pressure eases, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？
$SPCX is moving way cleaner than I expected.
The Falcon 9 order cutoff is the new short-term catalyst. The market is reading it as SpaceX cutting lower-margin work and pushing more resources into Starship. That narrative is pulling fresh buyers in.
Then there’s the squeeze. After that 15.8% jump, shorts clearly haven’t disappeared. Every small push higher can force another round of covering. The unlock didn’t create the dump everyone feared, so now those shorts are becoming fuel.
Brokerage upgrades are adding more heat too. Argus and JPM targets keep circulating, and dip buyers are still willing to step in.
Lowkey, this is why the rebound feels different. New catalyst + trapped shorts + bullish reports = a pretty clean momentum setup.
$SPCX Cracks in load-bearing walls always start rusting from the steel bar called "personnel."
The White House wants to replace Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, just like a builder wants to replace an anchor bolt in a load-bearing wall. Before she could answer all those accusations, the impact drill was already set up against the wall. Senator Warren held up the fire barrier, but the White House said it was just discussing economics with Fed Chair Wash—that sounded like a foreman carrying a toolbox saying, "I'm just chatting with the supervisor."
From my habit, Fed independence is the shear wall of the entire currency building. Once the shear wall opens windows, wind can pass through, and the structural rigidity matrix needs to be rewritten. Right now, wage data is like loose bricks, September policy expectations are like temporary supports, and the market isn't reading blueprints, but watching if the foreman will forcibly replace the supervisor.
After so many years of design, what I fear most isn't insufficient load, but that owners start to interfere in structural selection. The seven Federal Reserve governors have seven pillars; if a building is missing, it won't collapse, but if the owner shows "which pillar I don't like," the stress distribution for all columns must be recalculated. The dollar is the facade glass, the Treasury is the floor slab, the gold is the basement waterproofing, and crypto assets are the observation hall on the top floor that hasn't finished wind tunnel testing—all of these rely on the same structural system.
On the blueprint, the Fed's independence is marked with clear tolerance ranges. Every administration has fine-tuned within this tolerance, but no one has directly pulled the pillar out of the load-bearing system. This time is different—they are not fine-tuning, but tearing down walls with impact drills. And the noise of tearing down walls drowns out wage data and inflation signals. The reason the market began repricing the September policy path wasn't because economists found new cracks, but because everyone heard the sound of metal fatigue coming from inside the wall.
By the way, the white paper is just a rendering; construction quality determines the building's lifespan. Some people focus on the interest rate decision as a cosmetic issue, ignoring that the board's personnel wall is already being repeatedly smashed. The infill wall is not load-bearing, but if knocked too much, dust can clog the fresh air system, making it hard to breathe.
Assets like XSOX are essentially high-grade glass curtain walls paired with cantilevered trusses. They are extremely sensitive to wind pressure. When political pressure seeps in through the gap between the White House and the Federal Reserve, the first to tremble is not the concrete core tube, but the cantilevered components. If the market only focuses on the plaster layer of the interest rate curve, it is misjudging the place. The key is whether structural engineers have started submitting their resignations.
The most dangerous thing now is the "economic discussion" soft hammer repeatedly striking the same shear wall. Today you knock out an anchor bolt Lisa Cook, tomorrow replace a steel beam wash, and the day after it's time to change the concrete grade. Even if she stays this time, the wall damage is already documented. Dollars, US Treasuries, gold, crypto—everyone lives in the same building, but no one owns the shear wall of this building.
The last page of my construction log read: When politicians began measuring the thickness of load-bearing walls with tape measures, the building entered the demolition process. XSOX was just the earliest aluminum panel to feel vibration; it wasn't even considered the epicenter #whitehousevslisacook#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
To be honest, last week's ETF data was quite impressive—not just empty promises, but real money pouring in.
From August 3rd to 7th, over these five trading days, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $853.5 million, while ETH ETFs saw net inflows of $244.9 million—nearly $1.1 billion in total. What does that mean? This is the strongest week since mid-April, and BTC has been in the red for five consecutive days, not missing a single day. Even more outrageous, the previous week saw a net outflow of $61.5 million, but this week it reversed by nearly $900 million—changing faces faster than flipping a page.
In July, BTC ETFs saw only 172 million in inflows, and in August, the market had just one week of inflows and had already increased fivefold—the capital sentiment is clear.
But one detail needs to be clarified—this round is basically just BlackRock itself putting on a show. IBIT took 693 million on its own, accounting for 81% of total BTC inflows; $ETH ETHA took 203 million over there, also over 80%. That means nearly 900 million of the 1.1 billion was carried by BlackRock's two funds, while the others were mostly just playing the soy sauce. So rather than saying "institutions are collectively back," it's more accurate to say "BlackRock is buying up stocks again." This concentration is a hidden danger; if BlackRock ever shuts down, the data could immediately look bad.
Now let's look at the price. $BTC Currently near 64,800, up more than 3 points over the week; ETH is around 1,910, up nearly 4% for the week, slightly stronger. ETH is now above the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages, but the 200-day moving average is holding back at 2,061, which is the real hurdle. Whether it can reach $2,000 depends on whether this wave of ETF inflows can continue.
Now, let's talk about $SOL, which is quite interesting.
ETFs on the BTC and ETH sides are buying like crazy, while SOL's spot ETFs actually saw a net outflow of about $900,000 last week—not much, but the problem is that it had recorded zero inflows for several consecutive days, earning people the nickname "five consecutive zeros." But the magical part is, SOL's price has actually been rising in the past two days.
The macro sector also cooperated. July's employment data was disappointing, and the probability of a rate hike in September dropped below 50%, giving risk assets a sigh of relief. But this is a double-edged sword—poor data means the economy is really cooling, and whether short-term positive sentiment can hold up depends on the CPI coming up.
So can we take the relay? My view:
Short-term sentiment has indeed returned. BTC at 65,000 is a psychological barrier; if volume builds and it holds firm, the upside potential will open upward; If ETH ETF inflows maintain this pace, hitting 2,000 is not impossible. But don't get too carried away. First, trading volume hasn't kept up, and The Block also mentioned "low volume"—you know the market is about price rising and volume shrinking; Second, BlackRock's proportion is too high, and broad-based funding hasn't kept up; Third, the macro bomb hasn't been cleared yet.
The conclusion is: it's a fact that funds have returned, but it's still a breath short of 'relay'—let's see if we can see net inflows for the second consecutive week this week. One week of data is called a rebound; only after two weeks or more is it called a trend. Don't FOMO, and don't miss out; watching ETF daily reports is more effective than following candlesticks.#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
1. Capital Inflow: Both BTC and ETFs are recovering
After a sharp sell-off at the end of July, both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw significant capital inflows in the first week of August. This week, the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has surpassed $750 million. Ethereum ETF: Warming Up Simultaneously However, the historical cumulative net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs has surpassed $11.4 billion.
2. Price Response: Immediate rise ≠ capital inflow
The most critical observation is that large-scale capital inflows have not pushed prices up in tandem.
Bitcoin $BTC: Hovering in the $64,900-$65,100 range, ETF inflows totaled $738 million over the past 7 trading days, with BTC up only 1.14%.
Ethereum $ETH: Quoted around $1,919; ETF inflows of $156 million over the past 7 days, while ETH actually fell 0.69%.
3. Summary
Capital inflow is a positive signal, but the "relay" is not yet complete.
Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs indeed saw strong capital inflows back in the first week of August, and institutional allocation demand is recovering. However, prices reacted mutedly, reflecting that the market is in a tug-of-war between long and short positions—institutions are slowly building positions through ETFs, long-term holders continue to distribute while retail investors retreat, forming a temporary balance.
Whether BTC can continue to rise depends on whether it can effectively break through the $65,000 resistance and hold firm; ETH needs stronger spot demand to verify the effectiveness of ETF inflows. #标普收盘再创新高. Rising expectations at 8,000 points #财报观察员: Bear buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农意外转负, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes. #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, regulatory window pushed back—is the big retreat over? BTC has reclaimed the "iron throne," but the signals behind the data are not optimistic
Just now, a piece of data from CoinMarketCap sent shockwaves through the entire crypto community: BTC has once again become the largest reserve asset among major exchanges.
The total size is about $59 billion, accounting for 30.3% of total reserves. This figure not only signifies Bitcoin's return to the throne but also marks the temporary end of the "stablecoin hegemony era" led by USDT that began in May this year.
To be honest, my first reaction upon seeing this news wasn't 'Niuhui' (a big surprise), but rather a complex emotion.
Let's look at the details. Although BTC ranks first in total volume, USDT's reserves also reach $55.3 billion, accounting for 28.4%, making it almost a close battle. Together, these two account for nearly 60% of the reserve fund. What does this mean? It shows that in this market, conservative money and aggressive money have never been separated.
What's even more interesting are the "personality differences" among major exchanges. MEXC's stablecoin reserves account for 70.8%, KuCoin's 60.1%, meaning the vast majority of funds on these platforms are "ready to flee at any moment." Binance's stablecoin reserves alone reach $46 billion, a scale that would make any market maker covet and attract the attention of any regulator.
CoinMarketCap's commentary hits the nail on the head: reserve composition reflects risk appetite, reserve size reflects liquidity volume.
To put it plainly—when the market is truly panicking, people choose to swap their coins for stablecoins and "hold on"; When the market is greedy, Bitcoin reserves soar. Now that BTC has returned to the top spot, is it institutions bottom-fishing, or retail investors out of FOMO?
The answer may lie in a detail: although USDT's share has dropped to second place, its $55.3 billion volume remains at a historic high. This means a large amount of capital is just "waiting" rather than "retreating." They are like soldiers lying in trenches, loaded with bullets but still undecided which direction to charge.
For us ordinary players, the most memorable thing about this report is just one sentence: Bitcoin reserves are the market's "ballast stone," while stablecoin reserves are the "powder keg." When the fuse in the powder keg is lit, can the ballast hold the ship's hull?
This question is left for time to answer. But one thing is certain—in this industry, those who understand the reserve structure will never swim naked before the storm arrives.I am Brother Ci. The non-farm payroll data came out two days ago, and the market has already given the first round of feedback. BTC surged from 64750 to above 65350, and now it has pulled back to around 64800, consolidating sideways. The direction has not been fully decided yet.
The data itself is clear. July non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, while the expectation was an increase of 80,000. May and June combined were revised down by 103,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, due to a decline in labor force participation. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike dropped from over 50% to 44%, while Kalshi shows the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 65%.
Breaking down this data, employment is indeed weakening, but the falling unemployment rate prevents the market from directly pricing in a recession. The main trading theme has shifted: previously it was whether employment could outpace inflation; now, after the non-farm surprise, the question is whether CPI will rewrite the policy pricing for September. Next week's CPI is the real judgment point. If CPI is weak, rate cut expectations will heat up, and BTC may directly break through 65500 and surge to 67000. If CPI is strong, rate hike expectations will soar again, and BTC will pull back to 63500-64000.
The market is consolidating around 65000, waiting for that catalyst. At 65000, a breakout upward requires incremental buying, while a pullback downward needs a negative trigger. Non-farm payrolls have already overturned half the table; the other half is waiting for CPI to overturn it. Don't heavily bet on direction before the data comes out; set stop losses properly, and follow up once the direction is clear. Non-farm payrolls are the preliminary battle; CPI is the decisive battle.
Brother Ci has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $BTC $ETH $BICO #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering If this round of bull performance in the crypto world really comes back, many people will immediately have a thought: Should US stocks be the first to withdraw? Should all the money be moved into cryptocurrency? This momentum becomes even more pronounced when you see BTC strengthen again, ETH starts to catch up, and SOL and altcoins show resilience. But I actually think the most common mistake at this time isn't buying too little, but thinking too extremely: not "US stocks are over, crypto is coming," but more likely "US stocks can still be held, crypto is more elastic." In other words, the next round may not be the most worthwhile move to liquidate US stocks and swap coins, but rather a smarter asset allocation. To start with the conclusion: just because the crypto bull market is back doesn't mean US stocks will definitely fall. Many people like to think of these two markets as seesaws: when crypto rises, US stocks fall; when US stocks rise, crypto has no chance. But reality is often not that simple. If the macro environment warms up—such as rising expectations for rate cuts, a weaker dollar, improved liquidity, and a rebound in risk appetite—then US stocks and the crypto sector could rise together. However, the price increases may not be the same. Usually, the most likely scenario is: US stocks continue to rise slowly, while crypto rises even more aggressively. US stocks are now more likely to "continue trending at high levels," and if crypto shifts from a bearish bottom zone back to bullish, the odds and elasticity will be significantly greater. The problem with US stocks isn't whether they will crash immediately, but that the odds aren't as high as before. Nowadays, many US stock leaders and indices aren't considered "bad assets" themselves. The problem is, they have been rising for many years. In other words, while U.S. stocks can certainly continue to rise, you want to repeat what happened a few years agoThe CLARITY Act is not dead; it was pushed forward again before the Senate recess
A few days ago, the market was saying the CLARITY Act was about to be stalled again.
Before the adjournment, the U.S. Senate still pushed it forward, with a procedural vote scheduled for mid-September.
What does this mean?
At the very least, it shows that this matter is not "completely hopeless," but has shifted from "immediate approval" to "continuing the tug-of-war."
The real difficulty is clear: the bill requires 60 votes, and Republicans alone aren't enough—at least eight Democratic senators must support it. The banking industry is also opposing some provisions, because stablecoin rewards would directly affect the traditional banking market.
So my current view is:
Regulatory benefits remain, but don't fantasize about overnight implementation.
For BTC, advancing the bill is certainly a good thing; But for altcoins and domestic US projects, what really matters is not "pushing another step," but when the rules are truly written down.
On the contrary, I think the September vote will be even more interesting than now.
If even the procedural vote passes, the market might resume trading a "regulatory bull market."
Do you think September will get through this time, or will it keep dragging on?
$BTC #CLARITY法案 #美国加密监管 #特朗普 #加密货币 Buffett is not unaware of technology; he is waiting for tech companies to become businesses he can understand
Berkshire finally started spending money
Berkshire sent a very important signal in the second quarter:
After 14 consecutive quarters of net stock selling, it finally made a big buying rebound.
In Q2, Berkshire Hathaway bought about $23.5 billion in stock, sold about $3.7 billion, and ultimately achieved a net purchase of about $19.8 billion.
Even more noteworthy is that Alphabet (Google's parent company) has officially entered Berkshire's top five holdings, replacing Chevron.
Currently, the top five holdings include:
① Alphabet
(2) American Express
(3) Apple
(4) Bank of America
(5) Coca-Cola
Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway repurchased about $4.53 billion worth of its own stock in the second quarter, significantly increasing the intensity of the buyback.
Cash reserves also fell from about $397.4 billion at the end of Q1 to about $364.7 billion at the end of Q2.
In other words, Berkshire is undergoing a clear change:
In recent years, they have been stockpiling cash and waiting for opportunities; Now, they are starting to reinvest cash back into the market.
The most noteworthy aspect is this approximately $10 billion Alphabet investment.
During the Warren Buffett era, Berkshire Hathaway focused on high-quality consumer and financial companies represented by Apple, but now Google has become a core holding.
Clearly, the bet behind this is not just traditional search business, but:
Search moat + AI large models + Google Cloud growth. I am Brother Ci. The non-farm payroll data came out two days ago, and the market has already given the first round of feedback. BTC surged from 64750 to above 65350, and now it has pulled back to around 64800, consolidating sideways. The direction has not been fully decided yet.
The data itself is clear. July non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, while the expectation was an increase of 80,000. May and June combined were revised down by 103,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, due to a decline in labor force participation. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike dropped from over 50% to 44%, while Kalshi shows the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 65%.
Breaking down this data, employment is indeed weakening, but the falling unemployment rate prevents the market from directly pricing in a recession. The main trading theme has shifted: previously it was whether employment could outpace inflation; now, after the non-farm surprise, the question is whether CPI will rewrite the policy pricing for September. Next week's CPI is the real judgment point. If CPI is weak, rate cut expectations will heat up, and BTC may directly break through 65500 and surge to 67000. If CPI is strong, rate hike expectations will soar again, and BTC will pull back to 63500-64000.
The market is consolidating around 65000, waiting for that catalyst. At 65000, a breakout upward requires incremental buying, while a pullback downward needs a negative trigger. Non-farm payrolls have already overturned half the table; the other half is waiting for CPI to overturn it. Don't heavily bet on direction before the data comes out; set stop losses properly, and follow up once the direction is clear. Non-farm payrolls are the preliminary battle; CPI is the decisive battle.
Brother Ci has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $BTC $ETH $BICO #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering 最近很多人疑惑：
ETH有ETF、有机构关注、生态也在发展，为什么价格却没有明显爆发？
我认为，ETH现在缺的不是利好，而是流动性催化剂。
美国经济正在出现变化：
📉 通胀逐渐降温
📉 就业市场开始放缓
市场开始重新交易“降息预期”。
为什么这对ETH重要？
因为ETH属于高弹性风险资产。
高利率时期：
美元收益高 → 资金偏向避险 → 加密承压
降息周期：
流动性增加 → 资金寻找高收益资产 → ETH可能受益
当然，最大的风险是：
如果通胀反复，美联储推迟降息，市场流动性继续收紧，ETH上涨节奏可能被打断。
所以接下来重点关注：
✅ 美国CPI
✅ 非农就业
✅ 美联储9月会议态度
我的观点：
ETH现在等待的可能不是更多消息，而是全球流动性的重新打开。
如果降息周期正式开启，ETH或许会成为资金重新关注的核心资产。
你觉得下一轮ETH能否突破前高？
🔥 看好
🐻 继续观望
#ETH #Ethereum #美联储 #Crypto #OKX星球I am Brother Ci. The non-farm payroll data came out two days ago, and the market has already given the first round of feedback. BTC surged from 64750 to above 65350, and now it has pulled back to around 64800, consolidating sideways. The direction has not been fully decided yet.
The data itself is clear. July non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, while the expectation was an increase of 80,000. May and June combined were revised down by 103,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, due to a decline in labor force participation. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike dropped from over 50% to 44%, while Kalshi shows the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 65%.
Breaking down this data, employment is indeed weakening, but the falling unemployment rate prevents the market from directly pricing in a recession. The main trading theme has shifted: previously it was whether employment could outpace inflation; now, after the non-farm surprise, the question is whether CPI will rewrite the policy pricing for September. Next week's CPI is the real judgment point. If CPI is weak, rate cut expectations will heat up, and BTC may directly break through 65500 and surge to 67000. If CPI is strong, rate hike expectations will soar again, and BTC will pull back to 63500-64000.
The market is consolidating around 65000, waiting for that catalyst. At 65000, a breakout upward requires incremental buying, while a pullback downward needs a negative trigger. Non-farm payrolls have already overturned half the table; the other half is waiting for CPI to overturn it. Don't heavily bet on direction before the data comes out; set stop losses properly, and follow up once the direction is clear. Non-farm payrolls are the preliminary battle; CPI is the decisive battle.
Brother Ci has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $BTC $ETH $BICO #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering Non-farm payrolls are just the appetizer; the CPI on August 12 is the real market main course.
On August 7, the U.S. July Nonfarm Payroll Report delivered one of the most shocking labor market surprises of 2026. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, while market consensus expected an increase of 80,000 to 95,000—an actual result more than 100,000 below expectations. Even more concerning, the employment data for May and June was revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs, averaging only 20,000 jobs per month over three months.
The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%—but this is not a sign of improved labor demand; rather, it is due to the labor force participation rate dropping to 61.4% and 264,000 people leaving the labor market.
The market responded quickly and decisively:
· The probability of a rate hike in September has plummeted from 58% to about 30%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged has soared to nearly 70%
· The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 99.90 to 99.48, hitting its lowest level in nearly two months
· The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell 3.5 basis points to 4.637%.
· Gold surged over $50 in the 15-minute period, rising 2.95% to $4,365
· Silver rose 5.28% to $64.76
What about Bitcoin? It only rose 0.7%, reaching $65,300 before immediately turning back.
The shift from "guaranteed rate hikes" to "highly unlikely no rate hikes" only resulted in Bitcoin's 0.7% gain. During the same period, gold surged 3%, US stocks rose in tandem, but Bitcoin remained like a stagnant fish, hovering around $64,000.
Why? Three reasons:
First, the positive news was already priced in in early. Before the nonfarm payroll release, Bitcoin had already rebounded from $62,500 to above $64,000, with funds entering the market early.
Second, the crypto world's "internal wounds" have not healed. Platform cold wallets were stolen and lost $110 million; Strategy sold 1,638 Bitcoins at a loss to cash out $105 million; Coinbase's premium has been negative for nearly 80 consecutive days—US domestic funds have been selling off. Internal negative and external negative factors have formed a hedge, directly offsetting the upward potential of the market.
Third, the market clearly understands: non-farm payrolls are just the appetizer; next week's CPI is the real main course.
---
CPI — August 12, the ultimate judgment on rate cut expectations
The nonfarm payroll can push the probability of a rate hike from 67% to 44%, but the CPI is fully capable of pulling that number back up from 44% back to 67%.
Bloomberg economists expect the US CPI to rise 2.4% year-over-year in July, then slow further to 2.2%-2.3% over the next two months, with core CPI likely to slow to 2%—the lowest increase since March 2021. The team also expects July CPI to have zero month-on-month growth, with core CPI rising only 0.1% month-on-month.
If July's CPI data is weak, rate cut expectations will heat up again, and Bitcoin could challenge $67,000-68,000. But if CPI data is strong, rate hike expectations will surge again, and Bitcoin may pull back to $63,500-$64,000.
At that time, the signals sent by Federal Reserve Chair Wash at the Jackson Hole annual meeting will determine whether the rate cut narrative can truly materialize.
---
My judgment is simple:
Nonfarm payrolls have opened a door for rate cut expectations, but if CPI remains high next week, even the Fed's reason for "holding on on hold" could be overturned. Conversely, if CPI is moderate, that would be the real start of rate cut trade—the dollar under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields falling, and risk assets entering a real window.
The nonfarm payrolls have flipped the table. CPI will determine whether this round of rally rebounds or reversals.
On August 12, the market will see the truth.🎯 The Best NFP Result for $BTC & $ETH May Be Somewhere in the Middle
Everyone is asking:
“Will NFP be bullish or bearish for crypto?”
The answer depends on how strong or weak the labor market actually is.
🇺🇸 Forecast: 83K
🔴 Too Strong: >130K
Strong employment could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Higher yields + stronger USD could pressure BTC and ETH.
🟢 Moderate: 60K–100K
This could be the Goldilocks zone.
Labor market cools or remains balanced without showing signs of serious deterioration.
That may avoid both:
❌ Excessive inflation concerns
❌ Recession fears
Potentially constructive for risk assets.
🟢/🔴 Too Weak: <40K
Initially bullish for BTC/ETH because rate-cut expectations may rise.
But if unemployment jumps sharply:
Weak labor market → recession fears → risk-off → crypto selling.
📌 The sweet spot may be a labor market that's cooling, but not collapsing.
That's why I'm watching the entire employment report, not just the headline NFP number.
$BTC $ETH #NFP #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Macro #Fed #CryptoTrading
$BTC $ETH #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Selling pressure eased in the short term, but the bull market is moving from a "broad rally" to a "validation" phase.
The fundamentals of storage stocks—AI-driven structural demand growth and persistent supply shortages—have not fundamentally reversed. But the market is shifting from "rewarding investment" to "evaluating investment returns" in a new phase. Previously, stock prices had already exhausted too much expectations, and the upcoming market will depend more on:
Whether price increases translate into profits as expected, rather than just being narrative;
Whether HBM technology iterations (HBM4/HBM4E) can open up new volume and price spaces;
Whether the "incremental pillar" of CPU-side AI agent demand can be realized as scheduled.
As Serenity said: "Many times, industry bottlenecks and fundamentals haven't changed significantly, but market sentiment has already shifted dramatically." "The current volatility in storage stocks is more a normal game near the cycle peak, rather than a signal of the end of a bull market $SNDK 🇷🇺 RUSSIA’S NEW CRYPTO LAW TAKES EFFECT SEPTEMBER 1 — WHY IT MATTERS FOR $BTC & $ETH
Russia is set to implement its first comprehensive cryptocurrency framework, with the core provisions taking effect on September 1, 2026.
This could mark a major turning point for digital assets in one of the world’s largest economies. 👀
Under the new framework:
🔹 Regulated crypto businesses
Licensed exchanges, custodians, and brokers will be able to operate under Bank of Russia supervision.
🔹 Retail & qualified investors
Retail users will gain regulated access through authorized providers, while qualified investors will have broader opportunities.
🔹 International settlements
Crypto can be used in certain cross-border trade settlements, potentially creating an alternative channel for international payments.
🔹 Domestic payments remain restricted
Cryptocurrencies will still not be permitted as a general domestic payment method, keeping the focus on controlled adoption.
📈 WHY THIS MATTERS FOR CRYPTO
The biggest impact may not come from an immediate price move — it could come from the long-term shift in institutional confidence.
Clearer rules can reduce regulatory uncertainty and make it easier for financial institutions and corporations to participate in the digital asset ecosystem.
And Russia is part of a much larger global trend:
Major economies are increasingly choosing regulation over outright bans.
That could mean:
💧 Deeper liquidity
🏦 More institutional participation
💰 Greater long-term capital inflows
🚀 Faster blockchain adoption
🌍 Broader global acceptance of digital assets
For $BTC and $ETH, continued regulatory clarity could strengthen their position as established digital financial assets.
Regulatory milestones don't always trigger an instant rally.
But they can build the foundation for the next major adoption cycle.
🇷🇺 Russia’s September 1 framework is another important step in that direction.
Follow for more high-quality crypto market insights. 👀
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Weekend Essay | The market is stuck at a critical juncture, but the big show still awaits the CPI announcement
On weekend mornings, I eat pasta while glancing at the plate.
BTC is currently fluctuating around $65,000, surging to $65,300 last night, setting a new August high, before slightly pulling back. ETH is quoted at $1919, up slightly by 0.1% in 24 hours. Throughout the week, it gradually climbed from 62,000, with a cumulative increase of about 3%.
The trigger for this round of rebound is non-farm payroll data.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls in July recorded -23,000, while the market had expected an increase of 80,000. Job data for May and June was revised downward, with a total of 103,000 jobs cut, showing the employment environment is much weaker than the market expected.
After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September fell back to 44%. The US dollar weakened, US Treasury yields fell, and risk assets collectively rebounded. BTC, US stocks, and gold all rose together, with the S&P and Nasdaq following suit.
But one point is easily overlooked: the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% is not due to better employment, but rather because 264,000 people have exited the labor market, resulting in a digital beautification brought by a shrinking statistical denominator.
In terms of market sentiment, recent liquidations have not been intense, with less than $70 million in total liquidations across the network within 24 hours, indicating relatively restrained bullish and bearish battles; The Fear and Greed Index remains at 30, still in the fear range.
There are several potential risks to watch out for over the weekend; 发现Bsc上看上去没有庄没有高控的这一波行情都开始崛起了
上一次是币安人生，很多散户在，外面大量筹码，明显不是高控，就正费率一直猛猛拉
这一次是 $tut ，上现货之后每次都是跟着Bsc行情来的，基本就是一波，非常没劲，这次居然这么硬，而且我看了下，也不是靠合约驱动的价格上涨，跟币安人生一样，现货推动的，不会是币安人生的庄来tut了吧？
龙虾一直以来也是弱得要命，上了alpha上合约都不怎么上涨，反而这波慢慢的涨了很久了，不过我踩龙虾的庄已经在搞新项目了，会不会是这个已经卖了？
然后高控的 banana Skyai b 就不用说了，好像每次跌下去都会起来
另一个高控的 bluai ，也是来行情必表演The impact of the nonfarm payroll data has been fully reflected in the market, with clear and undeniable feedback from the first round. BTC quickly climbed above $65,350 from $64,750 before pulling back to consolidation near $64,800—the bulls and bears have yet to decide on a final direction, but the price center has clearly shifted upward.
The data points clearly: Nonfarm payrolls in July recorded -23,000, far below the expected +80,000, and the combined downward revision for May and June was 103,000, indicating clear overestimation in previous data. Although the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, the main reason was a decline in labor force participation rather than a substantial improvement in the job market. This combination sends a complex signal—the labor market is indeed cooling, but the falling unemployment rate makes it difficult for the market to directly bet on a recession, so bullish and bearish interpretations coexist.
On the interest rate pricing front, CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from over 50% to 44%, while the Kalshi platform shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged has risen to 65%. This divergence reflects the market's wavering policy path. The main trading theme has quietly shifted: Previously, the market was obsessed with whether "employment could beat inflation," but after the nonfarm payroll upset, the focus has fully shifted to whether the CPI will reshape September policy pricing. Next week's CPI report will be the real verdict, and the market will face decisive verification.
From the market structure perspective, $65,000 has become the dividing line between short-term bulls and bears. Trapped positions above and short-term profit-taking positions overlap; a breakout requires continuous incremental buying inflow; Support below is concentrated in the $63,500-$64,000 range; unless new negative factors trigger, the pullback space is temporarily limited. The current sideways pattern essentially means the market is waiting for the next catalyst—the nonfarm payrolls have flipped half the table, while the other half is waiting for CPI to reveal the results.
The scenario is also clear: if CPI data is weak, rate cut expectations will quickly heat up, and BTC is very likely to break through $65,500 and attempt a push toward $67,000; If CPI is unexpectedly strong, rate hike expectations may surge again, putting BTC under pressure to test the $63,500-$64,000 range. Until then, shrinking volume and volatility will remain the main theme. Before deciding on a direction, avoid heavy positions, strictly set stop-losses, and follow after the trend is confirmed.
The nonfarm payrolls are just a prelude; CPI is the real battle. The market is gathering near $65,000, waiting for the direction-deciding candlestick to finally fall.Is Ethereum going to burn staking yields to zero? Insiders are already in an uproar
$ETH price is still calm around $1,917, but the Ethereum community has already turned the tables upside down.
The center of the dispute is EIP-8363.
The solution is not simply to "issue fewer tokens," but to first calculate validator rewards normally, then burn more and more rewards as the staking rate rises.
When about 50% of ETH is staked, the net consensus layer yield from the new issuance may drop to zero; Validators can still receive transaction tips and MEV income at that time.
Supporters believe that over 33% of ETH is already staked, and if the proportion rises infinitely, tokens may further concentrate in the hands of large staking institutions, while those who do not stake will continue to endure additional issuance dilution.
Opponents immediately exploded:
Staking yields have already become the "benchmark rate" for Ethereum DeFi. If returns become unpredictable, the logic for lending, liquid staking, and even institutional ETH holdings could be weakened.
So this is by no means simply "destroying positive news."
Holders want greater scarcity, validators want stable yields, DeFi wants reliable interest rates—all three feel they shouldn't be paying the price.
The hardest part of governing crypto isn't deciding how many tokens to issue, but deciding who pays for scarcity.
Currently, it is still only a draft and has not been formally implemented.
Do you think this protects ETH's value, or does it personally cut off Ethereum's biggest advantage over Bitcoin? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? The world is undergoing unprecedented changes!
Gold was truly strong this week, surging to $4,339, up 7.27% in one week. If someone told me at the beginning of the month that gold could rise 7% in a week, I probably wouldn't believe it.
But it really happened.
Non-farm payrolls are the direct reason, -23,000, but the expectation is still 80,000 more, a 100,000 shortfall. Once the data comes out, the probability of a rate hike plunges from nearly 60% to around 44%.
When the US dollar weakens, gold takes off.
But this round of price increases is not enough for nonfarm payrolls alone; there are three layers underneath.
The first layer is easing expectations; when employment weakens, the market feels the Fed won't dare raise rates further. When the probability of rate hikes is low, the dollar weakens, and gold naturally becomes tough.
The second layer is risk aversion. Trump and Iran are still making tough threats to each other, Hormuz is hanging in the Middle East, central banks haven't stopped, and gold reserves have been steadily increasing. This demand will not disappear just because of a month of nonfarm payroll data.
The third layer is capital following. CFTC data shows net long positions in gold are increasing, not retail investors buying, but substantial funds moving in.
Then there's an interesting phenomenon: gold is rising, SPCX is also rising, but BTC hasn't moved much.
Under the same macro narrative, the performance of the three assets is completely different.
Citi set a target price for SPCX 220, which surged 23% in two days. BTC is still hovering around 65,000, ETF funds are coming in, but Coinbase's premium has been negative, and US institutions and Asia are offsetting each other.
So, is this gold price rebound or the start of a new trend?
I lean toward the latter. Non-farm payrolls provide a trigger, but the underlying logic is capital reallocation. After breaking 4300, technical space has opened up.
If CPI data continues to cooperate, gold prices may still have room to recover.
If CPI rebounds, there will definitely be a short-term breather, but gold's safe-haven demand won't disappear just because of a month's data.
With good data, gold and SPCX can continue to move, and BTC may catch up with gains. If the data is poor and rate cut trades are pulling back, then it's time to reconsider.
The direction is clear, but the rhythm will be decided after the data lands.
$SPCX $SNDK $XAU #黄金升破4300美元, are funds on edge for interest rate cuts or for safe havens? The focus of BTC this round isn't on whether the volume is high, but whether speed and tone go hand in hand. OKX Onchain OS recorded 47 BTC mentions in one hour at 08:00 on August 9, including 46 x and 1 news report; The total 24-hour volume was 1,039 times. After conversion, the latest hour is 1.09 times the hourly average for the long window, which is about 9% higher than the 24-hour average. This ratio only answers whether discussions have heated up, not whether buying has increased. If you write it directly as a breakout signal, you take an extra step and make an inference that the data does not support. The structure of tone is another line. Within one hour, 45% are bullish, 23% bearish, and about 32% neutral, indicating a clear bullish advantage. For the 24-hour period, the trend is 38% bullish and 20% bearish. The gap between the short and long windows is the part worth tracking going forward. In terms of origin, BTC is currently almost entirely driven by X. When a message is widely shared, mentions quickly increase, but independent information may not necessarily increase year-on-year. The trending list cannot tell us whether each piece of text comes from different participants, nor does it weigh by account influence or fund size. The long window source can be used as background: BTC has 944 times in 24 hours, with 95 news events. If the proportion of sources in one hour suddenly deviates sharply, it could mean new news first broke out on a certain channel, or news updates just haven't caught up yet. Both explanations are reasonable, soFundamental Research Report $TON / The Open Network (Public Chain/L1) $1.35 (24h +0.13%)
To get straight to the point: The Open Network ($TON) has an overall score of 43/100, rated as an early-stage project, with insufficient validation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network has weak usage evidence, and token value transfer still needs to be observed.
Fundamental breakdown: The Open Network (token $TON), public chain/L1 track. Focuses on the Telegram ecosystem, payments/wallets. Benchmarks against SOL and NOT. Traditional inter-enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas surges, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents frequently occur. Public blockchains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat currency settlement. Narrative-driven track, bear market usage cuts 60-80%. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: testing or pilot phase, code progress, mainnet/product phase subject to official roadmap. Latest version v2026.07, 2,407 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $15.24M, TVL not found. Wallet address does not equal monthly active users of natural persons; concentrated holdings of large addresses tend to overestimate actual user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed; supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income is undisclosed, token holder buyback and burn annualized rate without a burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business revenue, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. Code side: 2,407 valid submissions in 90 days, 72 active contributors, latest version v2026.07. GitHub is A-level evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look at PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, refer to whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level but do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs; for technical integration, see API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. Using NVIDIA GPUs does not mean NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not mean strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply 5,228,062,396.72801, circulating 2,751,672,200.777004 (52.6%), FDV $7.06B, next unlock undisclosed (share of circulating undisclosed), burn buyback annualized rate: no clear buyback burn. Must you buy coins when using the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service access). Looking together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market capitalization, The Open Network $3.72B, SOL undisclosed, NOT not disclosed. FDV: The Open Network $7.06B, SOL undisclosed, NOT undisclosed. Annualized revenue: The Open Network has not disclosed, SOL has not disclosed, NOT has not disclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, The Open Network has not disclosed, SOL has not disclosed, NOT has not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.72B, FDV $7.06B, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic view is $3.72B at 50-70% of the original price, fluctuating in a neutral range; optimistic view is revenue doubling, burn deployment, enterprise clients coming in, FDV P/S aligned with the top. Overall: insufficient evidence, mainly narrative (score 43/100). The token value transmission path is unclear, with only governance incentives. Circulating market cap is reasonable or undervalued relative to fundamentals, and FDV is moderate. Three major risks: short-term large unlock dumps, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives break off, usage collapses). Key points to look at next: protocol fee weekliness, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations over 30% require revaluation.
Logic gives you this, the decision is yours.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit#本周美国现货比特币ETF净买入8 53 million USD, marking a 15-week high
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $853 million this week, marking the highest weekly buying volume in 15 weeks, with BlackRock IBIT being the main contributor to the inflow. Institutional buying, long dormant, has returned, and market divergence has widened.
Multi-head perspective
Large net inflows represent the return of traditional institutional funds, with real money entering through compliant channels, providing tangible buying support for BTC.
After weeks of continuous capital outflows, institutional confidence has rebounded, helping to stabilize the market bottom and build momentum for future breakouts.
A voice that needs to be alert
A single weekly large inflow does not necessarily mean a trend reversal. A week's data cannot be directly equated with a sustained market trend.
Historically, there have been multiple large weekly inflows followed by immediate outflows. Whether the coin price can recover depends on whether it can maintain positive inflows for several consecutive weeks.
At the same time, the overall environment remains constrained by US Treasury and CPI inflation data. Even if ETFs buy aggressively, if the macro shifts, it will still suppress coin prices.
My personal opinion
This is a very strong positive signal, but it should not be taken as ironclad evidence for going long.
Institutional funds have started to enter the market, providing chip support for the 64,000-65,000 range, but ETF inflows are a secondary condition, not a decisive one.
Two key points to watch going forward: (1) Whether the company can sustain continuous net inflows for several weeks; (2) Whether the macro environment of CPI and U.S. Treasury yields is supportive.
Don't jump in just because you see weekly data; in a volatile market, good news is easily digested quickly.
Dial mapping:
Positive BTC sentiment, with altcoins mostly following the broader market, with limited momentum for individual breakouts. A real breakout requires price surges and confirms the price reaching key resistance levels.Since mid-July, I've repeatedly stated in the group that the $SPCX will break below issue price, and in the future it will definitely reach double digits.
At the time, many people didn't believe it.
I really don't get it. No short selling above 200, no short selling at 180, no short selling at 150, no short selling at 135 yuan. Now that it's 110, what does 'short selling' mean?
Today, a group member told me that their $SPCX was exposed.
I first gave him a scolding in the group chat.
Because if your trading logic is only this: unlock = shareholders sell = stock price crashes
Then you're trading elementary school math, don't play around
On the 6th, SpaceX's first round of large-scale restricted shares was officially lifted, with about 911.5 million shares eligible for sale, and the number of tradable shares significantly increased.
According to the simplest supply and demand logic, this is bearish.
But the market already knew.
Since July, SPCX has been continuously trading the full set of risks of "earnings report + unlocking + high valuation + capital expenditure."
Slashing from above 200 all the way to around 110 is itself a process of expecting early realization.
On the 6th, the day the stock was officially lifted, the SPCX not only didn't crash but actually rose; then on Friday, it surged about 16%, finally closing at 133.11, with an intraday high of 134.45, almost returning to the IPO price of 135.
The greatest impact of negative news often occurs before it materializes.
Why?
Because unlocking is never the same as selling.
900 million shares "can be sold" and 900 million shares "for sale" are two different concepts.
Whether employees, founding shareholders, and early-stage investment institutions will immediately dump liquidity depends on costs, taxes, asset allocation, long-term valuation assessments, and their own funding needs.
What changes the unlocking is the potential supply, not the instantaneous supply.
And when everyone in the market knows in advance that a huge number of stocks will be unlocked, there's an even more interesting question: what would happen if everyone waited for the unlocking day to short the stock?
The answer is—the short sellers themselves become the fuel for the market.
Before the unlock, SPCX had already fallen nearly half from its peak, with a large amount of pessimistic expectations entering the price early.
If the actual selling pressure after implementation falls short of the market's most pessimistic expectations, the stock price only needs to stop falling, and bears will start to suffer.
115、120、125……
Some short positions cut losses, while some leveraged positions were forced to close out
And the action of closing short positions is essentially buying back
Thus, the market experiences a very counterintuitive and interesting cycle:
Expectations for the lifting of the lock-up have plummeted
→ Heavily shorted in advance
→ The actual selling pressure after unlocking is not as terrifying as imagined
→ Stock price rises instead of falling
→ Short covering
→ Stock prices continue to rise
→ More bears are forced to cover the gap
It's not that all the rally in the past two days came from short squeezes, because there isn't enough real-time position data to prove it.
But from a trading structure perspective, this is a very common reflexivity after the lockdown is lifted.
So at that time, I went long at 112 and closed at 122.
Later, it continued to rise to over 130, but I didn't get any of it.
It's okay.
Fish heads and tails were never what I wanted to eat
As long as you can be more certain about eating the fish, that's enough
This rebound did not overturn my long-term bearish view of its current valuation
Short-term trading and long-term valuation are two different timelines.
I think around 110, due to over-trading expectations of the lock-up, it's worth going long in the short term.
At the same time, I can also say that 130, 135, or even higher does not mean SPCX is cheaper.
These two statements are completely uncontradictory.
Even if this round breaks through 135 again, I still won't change my previous core judgment: a great company doesn't mean every price is a great buying opportunity.
So I still follow my own pace, investing in one share every day or two, planning to hold for five to ten years.
At the same time, I still maintain the judgment that double-digit repricing opportunities will occur in the future.
Sounds contradictory, right?
In reality, this is not the case
Because one reason is that I am willing to hold SpaceX for the sake of time
Another is that I am unwilling to buy SpaceX at any price
Don't reflexively short just because the lock-up is lifted
Don't watch a sharp rise and then reflexively chase the long side
Price trading is never about "what happened."
Price trading is—how far apart is what happened from what the market originally expected?
The first round of SPCX unlocking is itself negative.
But a negative news that everyone knows in advance, panics about, and trades in advance will actually become a phased negative news when it actually materializes.
That's why I'm bearish on SPCX, and I dare to go long at 112.
Now that it has risen back to 130, I still think it will go to double digits
Trading is never about taking sides
Trading is pricing
We walked and explored the area
Time will tellI'm Ci Ge. It's been two days since the non-farm payroll data, and the market has already given its first round of feedback. BTC surged from 64,750 to above 65,350, then has now pulled back to consolidation near 64,800, and the direction hasn't been fully determined yet.
The data itself is clear. In July, nonfarm payrolls added negative 23,000, compared to an expected positive 80,000, with a combined downward revision of 103,000 for May and June. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, citing a decline in labor force participation. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 50% to 44%, while Kalshi shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged to 65%.
Looking at this data set separately, employment is indeed weakening, but the falling unemployment rate makes it impossible for the market to directly price in a recession. The main trading theme has changed: previously, employment could beat inflation; now, after the nonfarm upset, the question is whether CPI will rewrite the policy pricing for September. Next week's CPI will be the real judgment point. CPI is weak, rate cut expectations are rising, and BTC may directly break through 65,500 to 67,000. CPI is strong, rate hike expectations are soaring again, and BTC is pushing back to 63,500 to 64,000.
The market is flat around 65,000, waiting for the catalyst. At 65,000, breaking above requires incremental buying; pullbacks require negative news to trigger it. The non-farm payrolls have already flipped half the table, waiting for the CPI to flip the other half. Don't heavily bet on the direction before the data comes out; set stop-losses and follow once the direction is clear. The non-farm payrolls are a prelude; CPI is the decisive battle.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Take a closer look. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $BTC $ETH $BICO Has the knockoff season really arrived? Don't just look at the gainers' list—let's first look at the order in which the funds are spreading
Every time a few altcoins suddenly rise by 10%-20%, the market starts discussing "alt season is here." But a real altcoin season is never a sudden surge of a few coins; rather, it is when funds systematically diverge from low-risk assets to high-beta assets.
I pay more attention to the order of cash flows:
$BTC Stable →$ETH Compared to BTC, mainstream counterfeit →$SOL expands volume→ spreading small and mid-cap coins.
A noteworthy signal is that traditional trading markets have clearly shown interest in assets other than BTC and ETH. Data from SIX Swiss Exchange in May shows that 21Shares HYPE's staking ETP transaction volume was about $16.29 million, and SOL's staking ETP was about $15.56 million, even surpassing many single BTC and ETH products on the exchange during the same period.
But this only proves that capital is starting to focus on more assets, not that a full-scale knockoff market has begun.
What really needs to be confirmed is: can altcoins remain relatively strong during BTC pullbacks, and whether the rally is supported by spot trading volume.
If a coin's price surges, OI surges, and funding rates rise rapidly, but spot trading volume does not increase in tandem, I would instead interpret it as leveraged crowding rather than a healthy trend.
Risk boundaries: The smaller the market cap, the higher the liquidity risk. In particular, the rug pull problem caused by Solana's low-threshold token issuance remains severe. A study on 100063 newly issued tokens in the first half of 2025 identified 76,469 suspected rug pull tokens.
The real opportunity isn't to find the fastest-rising coins, but to find where funds start to stay longer.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard A Wall Street Legend from a Century Ago: How Did Jesse Livermore Foresee the Crash?
Jesse Livermore is one of the most legendary speculators of the 20th century, known as the "Wall Street Bear." His two most famous wins are:
The 1907 financial panic shorted the market
Before the Wall Street crash in 1929, huge short positions were established
One of the 1929 trades reportedly earned him about $100 million (the amount at the time), making it one of the most famous short trades in financial history.
But what truly deserves research is not "he guessed the crash," but rather:
He is not predicting the date, but observing that the market structure is collapsing.
1. He looks at the 'overall market,' not individual stocks
In his early years, Lemore liked to study individual stocks, but later he changed:
Buy long in a bull market, short in a bear market, and follow the main market trends.
He believes that stocks are not independent movements but are controlled by market trends.
This idea and the present are:
Dow Theory
Market breadth
Cash flow
Macro cycle
Actually, it's very close.
2. Before 1929, he saw five warning signs
(1) Everyone believes 'this time is different.'
The 1920s U.S. stock market bull market:
Retail investors entered in large numbers
Leveraged stock buying is prevalent
Stocks have become a tool for everyone to get rich
When the market begins to emerge:
"Stocks only go up"
This was a very vigilant signal for Limoire.
Today is similar:
AI cannot be bubbled
Tech stocks are always reasonably overvalued
Every pullback is a buying opportunity
(2) Trading volume expands, but price advancement weakens
Lemore studies "price behavior."
He will observe:
Is it easy to rise?
Is the decline starting to accelerate?
Is buying unable to push prices higher?
For example:
Stock price:
100 → 120 → 130
However:
Trading volume increased
The gains have narrowed
Representative:
Large funds may be being distributed.
This is the same as now:
Wyckoff Distribution
Volume Spread Analysis
Smart Money Concept
Very close.
(3) Leading stocks are starting to lose momentum
At the end of a bull market, typically:
Phase One:
Quality stocks led the gains
Phase Two:
second-tier stocks caught up in the gains
Stage Three:
Junk stocks are soaring
The market before 1929 was similar.
When weak companies start to surge, it means the last bit of liquidity in the market is burning away.
(4) Excessive credit leverage
Before 1929, many investors used margin to buy stocks.
Market Uptrend:
Leverage → more buying → higher prices
Foam forms.
But on the other hand:
Prices fall → margin calls → forced to sell → crash.
This is also today:
Financing transactions
Futures leverage
Cryptocurrency liquidation
The same logic.
(5) He waits for 'market confirmation'
Lemoore doesn't short-sell immediately at the sight of a bubble.
Its core:
The market proved me right, so I increased my position.
For example:
Let's take a look:
Key support was broken
The rebound is weak
The trend has turned bearish
Then gradually increase the shorts.
This is very important.
Many traders:
Seeing overvalued → immediately becomes empty
Results:
The bubble can last for half a year or even several years.
3. Lemoire's 1929 operating model
General process:
Phase One:
Hold long positions in a bull market.
↓
Phase Two:
Starting to feel the market is abnormal:
Stock valuations are extreme
Speculative mania
The trend is starting to weaken
↓
Stage Three:
Establish a short position.
↓
Phase Four:
After the crash is confirmed, increase your position.
During the 1929 crash, he made huge profits.
4. But Lemoore's biggest lesson: Being able to predict doesn't mean you can keep your money
His tragedy:
He once made a fortune
Later, he went bankrupt multiple times
In the end, his life ended in tragedy
Causes:
It's not that the technique is bad.
Instead:
There is no permanent control over risk.
For example:
Overconcentration
Overleverage
Trust your own judgment
5. If applied to today's market,
Lemore's method can be translated as:
Bull Market End-of-Market Checklist
✅ Market valuations are extreme
✅ Retail investors are frenzied
✅ All the media are bullish
✅ Weak stocks surged
✅ Trading volume has increased, but the rate of increase has declined
✅ The leading stock fell below key moving averages
✅ Credit leverage increased
When multiple occurrences occur:
Not shorting immediately.
Instead:
Reduce positions and wait for market confirmation.
He wasn't looking at the "news," but:
Capital→ Trends→ Crowd Psychology → Market Structure.
Lemoire's most iconic quote:
"The market never makes mistakes; only people's opinions can be wrong."
This is also why methods from 100 years ago are still being studied today.Account position divergence radar
Where people stand and where money is held are sometimes completely different things.
$BSB All and leading accounts are pushing toward the bullish side, while the top positions remain on the bearish side—this is a clear set of account/position divergence. The decline is accompanied by a drop in OI, mainly characterized by old positions exiting, rather than new positions continuing to suppress prices. Next, watch whether the top holdings have increased; otherwise, no matter how many accounts are overlooked, it is just a numerical advantage.
$DOGE More accounts are overweight, while leading positions are bearish, and the surface consensus has not yet reached position size. Within 15 minutes, prices and OI increase together, and market momentum is being transmitted to position expansion. To resolve divergence, the ratio of leading positions needs to rise, not just by the total number of accounts continuing to grow.
$BICO Bearish accounts account more, while leading positions carry a large weight, with surface sentiment not falling on top positions. The downtrend is not accompanied by exits; newly increased positions make this volatility even more concerning. If prices continue to weaken but the leading position ratio remains above 1, this divergence has not truly closed.📊 $DOGE contract liquidation express (August 11)
According to liquidation data, short-term bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but long-term bears have just collapsed...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $56,800 $52,900 $3,919.35
4 hours: $240,600, $223,600, $17,000
12 hours: $717,900, $370,400, $347,500
24 hours: $827,300, $381,400, $445,900
Looking at $DOGE liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed shorts. The 1-hour bull was 13.5 times the short, and the 4-hour ratio was about 13.1 times. The long selling trend in the short term was explosive in the short cycle; the 12-hour bull advantage narrowed sharply, dropping to 1.06 times, balancing bulls and bears with undercurrents of short squeezing; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with short liquidations crushing the bulls, 1.17 times the bulls. Dog Zhuang completed a fierce turn from selling long to short on DOGE—short-term long sellers were targeted and destroyed, long-term short sellers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $820,000. Everyone should control their positions carefully and don't get ripped off.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the CPI for a September rate hike; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all "imperfect" answers. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
#财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? The US stock market and the crypto world are becoming increasingly out of sync—is it the disappearance of opportunities, or the market maturing?
Recently, many people have noticed:
The trends in US stocks and crypto are becoming increasingly different from before.
Previously, the market habitually believed that as long as risk appetite increased, both sides would rise together.
But now the situation is changing.
U.S. stocks are increasingly influenced by industry logic.
Especially in the AI sector, capital is focused on corporate growth, profitability, and long-term competitiveness.
Therefore, the market is willing to offer higher valuations to quality companies.
Meanwhile, the crypto world is following its own cycle.
The crypto market has its own capital structure, ecosystem changes, and market rhythm.
It will not simply replicate the stock market.
This is actually a sign of maturity.
Because in truly mature markets, not all assets have only one driving factor.
Different assets operate according to different value systems.
The US stock trading industry is cashing out.
Future expectations for crypto trading.
One looks at the growth that has already happened.
One looks at the possible changes that may occur in the future.
Therefore, decoupling from stocks and cryptocurrencies does not mean fewer opportunities.
On the contrary, it means investors need to understand the market more precisely.
The future will not be limited to a single market.
AI, technology, and crypto assets may all create opportunities within their own cycles.
The key is not to find someone to replace whom.
Instead, it's about finding the window that belongs to each market.US stocks and AI have entered a profitable era, but the crypto world is still waiting. Is this the biggest expectation gap?
There is a clear difference in the market now.
AI-related stocks are steadily proving themselves.
Meanwhile, the crypto world is still in the waiting phase.
Many believe this indicates that AI is stronger and opportunities in the crypto world are fewer.
But in fact, these are two different cycles.
The biggest change in AI is moving from imagination to reality.
Earnings from companies like NVIDIA have shown the market that artificial intelligence is generating real business value.
Naturally, capital is willing to give it greater attention.
This is the biggest characteristic of the industry bull.
There is data, revenue, and growth.
But the logic in crypto markets is different.
Often, the crypto market trades for the future in advance.
The market is looking forward to the next phase of new changes.
It could be ecological development or changes in capital cycles.
So it takes time to wait for consensus to form.
Many retail investors often make a mistake:
I like to compare who is currently rising more.
But what truly matters in the market is:
Who is at which stage.
US AI stocks have entered a realization cycle.
The crypto world is awaiting an expected repricing.
There is no superiority between the two.
Just like the early AI industry, it also experienced long-term market skepticism.
Ultimately, value is proven by industrial development.
So now, the divergence between stock and coin currencies seems more like a normal state after the market matures.
One is responsible for fulfilling the promise.
One is responsible for waiting.
Opportunities always belong to those who understand the cycle in advance.Why is $BTC increasingly resembling US stocks? Coin traders must start focusing on traditional markets
Many traders still interpret BTC as old logic: gold rises → safe-haven→ BTC should rise too. But with ETFs and institutional funds flowing in, this logic is changing.
A 2026 study found that after the launch of spot BTC ETFs, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 increased significantly, while BTC's correlation with gold stabilized near zero.
This means BTC is increasingly being influenced by global risk appetite.
So now, when trading BTC short-term, I observe three macro variables at once:
U.S. stock risk appetite | US Dollar Index | Market rate cut expectations.
If US stocks rise, the dollar weakens, and liquidity expectations improve, BTC usually enjoys a more comfortable upward environment; Conversely, if US stocks quickly take risk-off, even if there is no major negative news in the crypto sector, institutional funds may reduce BTC positions together.
More notably, the ETF market and CME futures are not completely frictionless. A 2026 study found that there is an average annualized difference of about 2.58 percentage points between the two markets in implied arbitrage returns, indicating that institutional entry has not made BTC a fully efficient market. $BEAT It went up today. I'm not very keen on buying at this level because the price of this coin is indeed a bit high. I previously bottom-fished $LAB at just over 2 yuan, and I'm still stuck tight. If this coin is a new 'yao' coin, meaning it just rose from the bottom, I might really chase after it at this level. But $BEAT is different; this coin has already risen twice. If a coin has surged twice, I wouldn't dare to go long casually. So now the question is, can this coin be shorted now? We need to analyze the data. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its long-short account ratio is steadily rising, with contract open interest showing a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. This generally indicates that the trend is now for short profit-taking and bull bottom-fishing. If that's really the case, $BEAT coin can now be entered to chase long. But that doesn't seem to be the case. I observed that his contract funding fee was negative, and negative numbers meant the contract had a negative premium compared to spot trading. After that, I extended the contract data duration and discovered something different. We can see that overall, it is showing a downward trend, rather than the micro-level increase we see. Now that there is a divergence between micro and macro levels, we need to keep waiting. —————————————————— Actually, from a personal subjective perspective, I tend to lean more toward the macro perspective. On the thermal imaging instrument panel at the center of the crosshair, the tactical heat source of the high-spec storage chip had not yet faded, but in the distant wilderness, the sound of panicked stray bullets was already ringing out.
I disguised myself in a Geely suit beneath the permafrost for three whole days, and my heart rate stayed at 45 beats per minute. The louder the deafening the firefight, the more it hides false signals luring the enemy deeper. Although Sandisk, Micron, and SK Hynix successfully eliminated the performance bullseye in the previous round of shooting range, their stock prices still fell along with Western Digital in the face of revised trajectory guidance and persistently high valuation levels. Even though the US stock market launched a tactical rebound at the close, the trading zones of these storage giants were still filled with the pungent smoke of war.
A group of impatient rookie shooters are selling off their ammunition, thinking this multi-year cycle of high-compute storage has stalled. But through my high-magnification scope, the parabolic trajectory of the entire battlefield remains clear. SK Hynix has just approved a heavy equipment add-on plan worth 54.3 trillion KRW for the Yongin and Cheongju bases—not blindly consuming inventory, but building an indestructible concrete line on core high ground, prematurely betting on how much neural computing power will crave high-end storage throughput in the coming years. Moreover, the remote observation post has further pushed up expectations for capital expenditure growth in cloud infrastructure in 2027.
The so-called valuation corrections and cautious guidance are nothing more than the masters clearing out the jungle of the hunt. When undisciplined traders panic and pull the trigger at the slightest disturbance, treating the stop-loss line as a lifeline, the real ace is patiently recalculating wind speed and ballistic descent.
Following the cursor of the scope, shifting two critical steps to the left, the market linkage of the $XAAPL of US stock tokenization indicators demonstrates extremely high tactical indication value. As one of the strongest anchors in the tech sector, the capital deployment pattern on the $XAAPL market is like a main battle tank acting as the anchor of the entire defensive line. This turbulence in the storage sector is merely a brief rebound triggered by massive capital during tactical shifts. The core narrative of the high-throughput storage shortage has not collapsed; it is simply waiting for the next crisp reload.
Before a tactical window with an absolute profit-loss ratio appears, the safety bolt will always be locked. Frequent attacks before the storm arrive are meaningless except to expose concealed positions and cause the barrel to overheat and retire.
Wind speed three knots, target correction complete, ambush continued.#Will the AI memory bull market remain stable after the continued decline in storage stock earnings reports?
$SNDK SanDisk reached 1221, just a bit short of 1219, the grid hasn't recovered yet.
Previously, I thought it would fluctuate between 1200-1300 this week, but it looks weaker than expected, though still within the range.
A friend reminded me that with the Korean market opening tomorrow, SanDisk might be dragged down with a dip to around 1160. This is indeed possible; the storage sector sentiment was already poor on Friday, with $SKHYNIX SK Hynix leading the decline. It's very likely the opening tomorrow will continue the downward momentum, so SanDisk being pulled down isn't surprising.
But what I care about isn't the dip itself, but whether it can recover afterward. If it's just a quick dip and rebound, the grid might actually be reactivated by buying at a low level.
Currently, the price is still below 1219, the grid is paused, and the base position is still holding. If it continues downward, the forced liquidation price is 930, so there is still a lot of room. Therefore, my key range is between 1080 and 1160—if it dips to here, I can hold; any deeper would exceed expectations.
SanDisk's fundamentals haven't changed, Citibank's target price is 2500, and the long-term logic for storage remains. This correction is an emotional release, not a reversal of logic.#AIMemoryStressTest #USSpotBTCETFPeak #SpaceXUnlockRebound At the end of October 2023, Bitcoin suddenly entered a bull market main rally
It rose from 25,000 to 74,000 in March 2024, breaking its all-time high
During this process, a large number of people missed out on the bull market
It was later revealed that the main driving force behind this bull market was the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and expectations of interest rate cuts
We all know that crypto bull markets are driven by narrative and liquidity.
Many people might think, why not just find the main narrative of the next bull market and buy the corresponding tokens?
Many people also wonder, with no good news now, how could a bull market possibly come?
This is a typical event transaction
In real environments, it's hard to predict what the next bull market narrative will be or when it will start, and ordinary people shouldn't invest time in narrative prediction
Let me give you a few examples to show just how challenging it is
In 2023, besides ETFs, there was also the Shanghai upgrade, Cancun upgrade, inscription ecosystem, Hong Kong compliance, and Layer 2 boom, each hailed as the "next bull market main theme"; Fake narratives are everywhere, making it hard to tell truth from falsehood right from the start
We now remember ETFs as the main theme because it eventually became the main theme; But at the same time, countless disproven narratives were forgotten afterwards.
This is the first difficulty: choose the right main storyline
On June 15, 2023, BlackRock submitted a spot ETF application. Although this signal is obvious now, at the time, no one believed it would definitely pass. Many believed the SEC had rejected it for ten years, and this time was no different—just pumping up and selling off.'
When Grayscale won, many said, "The SEC can still appeal and delay, but approval is still a long way off."
Moreover, the sharp drop in August and the SEC's delay in approval have made many feel the narrative has been disproven
At that time, it was still in a rate hike cycle, with the 10-year Treasury yield briefly exceeding 5%. Many people mechanically believed that high interest rates meant no bull market,
Until it broke through 35,000 in October, some still saw it as the "last lure for bulls."
The clarity afterwards is essentially survivor bias
Looking back at the 2023 ETF market, from BlackRock's application to Grayscale's victory and official approval, every step was like a clear card, but no main narrative was recognized by the entire market on day one. By the time everyone confirmed this was the main theme, the market had often already risen 50% or even doubled, and the most fattest early gains had already passed.
This is the second difficulty: being able to believe the main story is successful and dare to hold a heavy position
Back to the current environment, we still face the same problem. Today, we see that the Clarity Act has been postponed to the September vote, so the question is, will it definitely pass in September? Will it pass this year? What if it doesn't?
Also, the liquidity environment that hasn't started a bull market yet, and the market is still pricing in a September rate hike, with occasional news of three rate hikes
If you don't know these questions, I advise you not to invest too much effort in finding answers. Countless geniuses on Wall Street are searching for answers. They can study what spokespersons say, read documents, privately communicate with relevant people in circles, conduct interviews, and so on. These information advantages are beyond what we can have
For us, the main focus is on the chip structure
Now, Bitcoin has dropped more than 50% from last October. A full 10 months have passed, and the market has told us selling pressure is exhausted and sentiment has cleared. So we just need to keep buying and don't pay attention to external news, negative news, or various KOL predictions—those are all noise
Second, choose places where winners gather
Every Bitcoin bull market has its own narrative, and this one is undisputed and a must-buy
Those that can capture the main storyline are all public chain tokens, such as ETH, BNB, SOL
2024 will be the meme narrative for Solana; 2025 will be Bitmine buying ETH and BNB for two years; Launchpool in 2024 and treasury buying coins in 2025;
The next step is sector selection, which is less certain than public blockchains. For example, DeFi ended badly in 2023. Back then, DeFi protocols were excellent in every aspect—revenue, growth, and far better than those empty ones. The star sector of 2021, but sorry, this bull market narrative isn't on your side—the price is only half dead, except for Aave, which is a bit better.
If you think DeFi will turn things around in the next bull market, you can allocate some assets, but you can't go all-in;
If you think the upcoming main narrative of the bull market will be RWA, then the tokens we choose will benefit from these narrative dividends and won't bet on the wrong one
For ordinary people like us, the only thing we can do in a bear market is to keep buying and then wait, because we don't have an information advantage;
Don't wait for good news to start buying
Every bull market starts suddenly out of despair, giving you no chance to react, because the start is always at its worst—no good news, poor liquidity, sluggish turnover, and the whole circle feels like it's over
Only two types of people keep buying:
1. Firm long-term holders, not asking for news, just buying
2. The geniuses with information advantages on Wall Street have studied and continuously accumulate chips
Then one day, the price suddenly rises, and most people still think it's just a bullish inducementThe Nasdaq rose, BTC was trading sideways—why are experts paying attention to this kind of "misalignment market"?
The biggest recent market change is that assets are becoming increasingly different.
The Nasdaq continues to perform strongly, tech stocks attract capital attention, but Bitcoin remains volatile.
Many people seeing this situation feel that there is a problem with the market.
But in reality, those who truly understand cycles tend to focus on this misalignment.
Because opportunities rarely happen when all assets rise together.
The biggest advantage of US stocks right now is their very clear industry logic.
AI has moved from the concept stage to the commercial validation stage.
The market can see growth in orders, revenue, and profits, so institutional funds are willing to continue allocating.
And the crypto world is not without logic right now.
It's just that its logic is not the income statement.
Bitcoin and crypto assets rely more on market expectations.
When will funds refocus?
When will new narratives take shape?
When will market consensus change?
All of these factors affect the pace of the market.
So naturally, the two markets are not synchronized every day.
In the past, many people liked to use the simple model of "when US stocks rise, crypto goes up."
But now the market has entered a tiered phase.
U.S. stocks represent industries realizing their potential.
The crypto world represents future expectations.
One is to see how much value a company creates today.
One is to see how much value might be created in the future.
So the current divergence is not necessarily risk.
It may simply be a time lag between two cycles.
Real opportunities often come when the market lacks a fully unified understanding.$SPCX After about 911.5 million restricted shares were unlocked, the stock rebounded against the trend, quickly rebounding from around 110 to near the issue price of 135. This trend reflects that after earlier risk digestion, selling pressure fell short of expectations, triggering a rebound effect from short covering. If the incumbent funds continue to push the stock price above the 135 mark, the strong recovery pattern will continue; If high valuations and subsequent selling regain dominance, there is still a risk of the price falling into double digits. The subsequent trend of this phased game depends on the actual willingness to sell and the dynamic changes in turnover rate.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, pressure to invest in AI is intensifyingExpectations of Fed rate cuts heat up, $SNDK US stocks rise first—why hasn't the crypto world started yet?
Recently, an interesting phenomenon has appeared in the market.
U.S. stocks have already traded ahead of time on expectations of rate cuts, and tech stocks have performed strongly, but the crypto world has not fully replicated this trend.
Many people began to wonder:
Previously, when liquidity improved, risk assets would rise together.
Why is it different this time?
The key lies in the fact that what is traded in the market has changed.
The US stock market is rising now not just because of rate cut expectations.
More importantly, the AI industry is offering new growth logic.
Corporate capital expenditure is rising, data center demand is rising, and tech companies' profit expectations are rising.
So when funds buy US stocks, it's not just betting on liquidity, but on industry growth.
This is why the Nasdaq and AI leaders have been able to remain strong.
Meanwhile, the crypto world is currently more waiting for its own catalyst.
Although Bitcoin and Ethereum are both emerging assets, their market focus is different.
The crypto market needs new capital inflows, new ecosystem development, and stronger market consensus.
Many retail investors believe that rate cuts necessarily mean all assets will rise simultaneously.
But a truly mature market is not that simple.
Funds will choose the most certain direction at different stages.
Currently, U.S. stocks are trading based on industry changes that have already occurred.
Crypto trading represents potential future cyclical opportunities.
So divergence does not mean the market is failing.
On the contrary, it indicates that funds are making more precise choices.
US stocks follow industry bull markets, relying on profits to realize their potential. In January 2025, Bitcoin broke through 109588, marking the end of the phase bull market and falling until bottoming out in April
During the same period, Ethereum fell from 4100 to a staggering 1385
From the current perspective, you should clear your positions promptly before January
But in real conditions, selling is a very difficult event—harder than bottom-fishing in a bear market.
Let's look at what happened at that time
Institutions unanimously expect $200,000: Bernstein, Standard Chartered, ARK, and Deutsche Bank have released reports almost simultaneously, setting a target price of $200,000 for Bitcoin in 2025, citing triple drivers such as pension fund entry, deepening institutional allocation, and favorable policies
Trump's policies have only just begun: the market generally believes that taking office is just the beginning, with a series of policy dividends such as the stablecoin bill, the introduction of 401k pension funds, and the Bitcoin strategic reserve, making the narrative far from being realized.
ETF funds continue to flow in: for the entire month of January, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.3 billion, while BlackRock alone saw $3.2 billion in inflows, indicating a steady stream of institutional buying
The four-year cycle model says the top is still early. : The halving is in April 2024. According to historical patterns, the top is 12–18 months after the halving, that is, from mid to the end of 2025, with January only being the ninth month. According to this model, at that time it was not just a top but was halfway up the mountain
These views weren't made up afterward; they were publicly available information you could see every day at the time. When you're in the midst of them, you naturally feel the bull market is still early, and now it's only halfway up, making it hard to actively think the market is ending.
This is the first hurdle: the whole world is full of good news, and there's no reason to sell
More importantly, the mainstream interpretation of the January decline at the time was "reversing the car to catch the driver" and deleveraging to lighten the car and pave the way for a rise
Because every bull market main upward wave goes through two or three sideways consolidations, and each consolidation is considered bearish. In reality, the price is just a temporary adjustment, but after many times, it creates a wolf effect. When the real bear market declines, people think it's a correction, which creates a kind of mindset.
This is the second hurdle: ignoring risk, all declines are an ingrained belief in shakeouts
We all know that the bear market decline before April 2025 was due to Trump's tariff policies
However, at the beginning of 2025, almost no one regarded tariffs as a core variable accelerating the bear market
It wasn't until February 2025, when the market saw its first large-scale crash and crashed, that the market truly began to take it seriously; By April, when global reciprocal tariffs were fully implemented, Bitcoin bottomed out, and during the same period, altcoins fell for a full four months, even dropping as much as 80%.
This is the third hurdle. You can't know the real bad news in a bear market, but it will definitely appear
So in a bull market, relying on so-called news and analysis is extremely difficult. When it's time to sell, the whole world is good news. By the time bad news comes, the bear market is already halfway over, and selling at that point will be even harder, since everyone loses and dislikes it
So don't spend too much energy on external factors like narrative and news aspects
What's truly useful is paying attention to the chip structure, which brings us back to our old viewpoint
The fundamental reason for the end of a bull market is the drying up of buying demand,
The fundamental factor behind the sluggish buying is "price consensus"
In 2025, Ethereum consolidated sideways at 3800. When it broke below the consolidation, most started to panic, but then recovered the next day and never looked back, breaking through 4700.
The critical moment came. After the 3800 wave ended, good news kept coming, especially Tome Lee, who kept saying Ethereum would break 10,000 by year-end. Everyone knows he's boasting. Most people think 6000-8000 is a reasonable target, and then an anchor point forms: Ethereum is about to reach 6000. News keeps spreading, more and more people believe in this price, buying keeps coming, and the bull market ends
So, when a price consensus is reached, it's time to start reducing positions—selling more as prices rise, selling regularly, just like regular investing, just selling off
Because you have a position, you are part of this market, and your ideas can represent the public's perspective. So you will have the same price anchor as the masses, but our actions will become selling, rather than continuing to believe like the masses
So I have summarized several more detailed points below
1. Everyone firmly believes the bull market is coming
2. Volkswagen began to agree on a higher price anchor
3. No longer fearing a downturn; thinking it is just a pullback to clear leverage
When these signals appear, don't worry about any positive news. Sell firmly, don't be afraid to sell early. Selling early still keeps your rationality. What's truly scary is the top. Selling feels like betrayal, as if you were wrong, and you might even buy back uncontrollably, causing even greater losses
I believe these words more: Sell for profit, escape the top is a disaster. Now that the bear market is in August, the bull market will definitely come. The purpose of writing this article is to prepare for the next bull market
We hope to stay clear-headed at the end of the bull market and secure profits in time
In cryptocurrency, compound interest comes from realizing the money, not necessarily long-term holdingNvidia continues to rise, so why hasn't Bitcoin replicated the AI rally?
The most misleading recent market scenario is that AI leaders like Nvidia remain strong, while the crypto world hasn't fully followed suit.
Many people ask:
Both are future technology directions, so why is the trend so different?
The answer actually lies in the different pricing methods in the two markets.
Behind Nvidia's rally, there is very clear data support.
Rising demand for AI servers, expanded investment in data centers, and companies continuously raising their AI budgets.
The market is not buying a story, but an industrial chain that is being realized.
This is why US stock funds are willing to continue focusing on AI.
Because institutions are looking ahead to revenue and profit growth over the next few years.
But the crypto world is different.
The crypto market often trades for the future in advance.
The market is focused on the next cycle of opportunities, including changes in the capital environment, ecosystem development, and the emergence of new applications.
So it won't simply copy the US stock market.
Many retail investors often make a mistake:
When you see one asset rise, you assume other assets must respond immediately.
But the market is not a machine.
Different assets have different engines.
AI in the US stock market now feels like a car already on the move, accelerating its realization of industry value.
The crypto world seems more like waiting for the next spark.
This is also why stock and coin markets have become more divided.
It's not that capital is abandoning crypto, nor is it that US stocks are replacing other assets.
Instead, the market is becoming more mature, and pricing is starting to follow different logics.
In the coming years, opportunities will not exist in just one direction. #非农意外转负, CPI is the key to rate hikes. To put it bluntly, this gives me the feeling that the market is now completely led by the nose by the Federal Reserve.
Nonfarm payroll data has clearly weakened, jobs are shrinking, and logically, the market should have breathed a sigh of relief, but people still feel uncertain.
The root cause is inflation that hasn't been completely reduced. As long as CPI has a chance to rebound, the Fed could toughen again at any time, and the shadow of rate hikes won't fade.
An interesting phenomenon:
In the past, people would set their direction based on non-farm payrolls, but now, after reviewing non-farm payrolls, they still dare not draw conclusions and have to wait for inflation data to be confirmed again.
It's like a piece of news can no longer be decisive; only when two sets of data are combined will funds dare to act.
Another point is that the data itself is contradictory: fewer jobs actually lower the unemployment rate.
The economy hasn't completely cooled down, nor is it hot—it's stuck in an awkward situation.
The Fed itself probably can't decide what to do next, so the market is naturally even more conflicted.
To put it bluntly, the entire financial market, including cryptocurrency, is in a state of constant anxiety,
A little positive news makes people hesitant to get hyped, and a little negative news makes it easy to panic. Everyone is waiting for their last trump card to land过去24小时，比BTC价格更值得关注的事情，发生在Bitcoin协议本身。 BIP-110已经进入最关键的争议阶段。 这不是一次普通升级，也不是简单的“Bitcoin又要分叉”。 它真正争论的是一个存在了很多年的问题： Bitcoin区块空间，到底只应该服务货币交易，还是任何愿意支付手续费的数据都应该被允许写进去？ 一、BIP-110到底想改什么？ BIP-110全名是Reduced Data Temporary Softfork。 根据正式提案，它计划暂时限制Bitcoin上的任意数据存储，包括禁止大于256字节的连续任意数据、限制部分大型scriptPubKey和Tapleaf结构，并把OP_RETURN恢复到83字节限制。 规则若最终激活，计划持续约52,416个区块，也就是大约一年，然后自动到期。 它最直接针对的，就是Ordinals、Runes以及其他利用Bitcoin区块写入图片、文本、代币元数据的方式。 二、支持者为什么认为必须限制？ BIP-110支持者的逻辑并不复杂。 他们认为Bitcoin首先应该是一套全球货币和支付网络，而不是永久数据存储系统。 任意数据大量进入区