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$SPX pulled back after hitting resistance at 7800 points, with the market showing an alternating expanding triangle pattern characterized by rising highs and falling lows. The core issue currently is whether the volatility expansion under high valuation represents chip distribution or a phase correction.
Structurally, the index experienced a sharp rejection at wave 6 reaching the upper boundary of 7800 points, accompanied by lower lows at waves 1, 3, and 5 and higher highs at waves 2, 4, and 6. This amplified oscillation reflects intensified bullish and bearish divergence, with price stability decreasing.
In terms of driving structure hierarchy, rising long-term interest rates suppress high valuations, forming the main downward pressure. Historically, the high 30-year yield limits upward momentum, and whether the support at low point 5 holds will determine if the consolidation range evolves into a trend reversal.
The bullish scenario requires the price to stop falling at the lower boundary and complete a volume contraction turnover. If Fed rate cut expectations significantly increase and the index breaks above the 7800 resistance with volume expansion, the top distribution hypothesis will be rejected, and the structure will shift to trend continuation.
The bearish scenario triggers after confirming resistance at the 7800 upper boundary, with bears pushing the price below the support at low point 5. Sustained high long-term yields will accelerate the breakdown, confirming that the amplified volatility pattern is a high-level chip distribution.
The structure invalidation point is clearly set at the 7800 upper boundary. A volume breakout with a solid bullish candlestick above this level means the expanding triangle's upper resistance is invalidated, and the market will return to a unilateral uptrend.
The most critical variables to watch over the next 7 days are the volume breakout at the 7800 resistance and the movement of the 30-year yield.
#SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高The Bhutan royal government has taken action again. The latest on-chain data shows that its related wallet transferred 300 BTC to a new wallet just a few minutes ago.
It then flowed to Bn, which, at the price at that time, amounts to about $19.28 million. What is even more noteworthy is that last month Bhutan also transferred 66 BTC to an exchange.
A single transfer of 300 BTC is not enough to change the market trend by itself. What is truly worth paying attention to is the trend that "Bhutan is continuously reducing its BTC reserves." Previously, its holdings were close to 13,000 BTC, and there have been multiple large transfers this year, indicating that these BTC are not simply long-term cold wallet hoards but are more likely used for fiscal fund allocation, cashing out, or asset rebalancing.
Therefore, I am more inclined to interpret this news as "potential selling pressure" rather than "immediate dumping." After all, transferring to an exchange does not mean it has already been sold, but if large BTC flows to Bn continue, the market needs to be wary of the marginal selling pressure caused by continuous cashing out from a national-level address.
$BTC The core of the "Clarity Act" is to define the jurisdiction of the SEC and CFTC, clarify token attributes (securities vs commodities), and provide exemptions for DeFi developers.
If passed (compliance dividend):
CFTC leads digital commodities, breaking SEC's "regulation by litigation";
Mainstream tokens (ETH, SOL, etc.) escape securities litigation risk, compliance thresholds for spot ETFs and derivatives drop sharply;
Traditional big funds like Wall Street and brokerages enter compliance, legal risks for non-custodial developers eliminated.
If not passed (fragmentation and offshore):
Regulation remains litigation-driven, altcoins face long-term compliance discounts;
Funds concentrate on BTC for hedging, startup teams and liquidity accelerate flow to friendly regions like UAE, Singapore, and Europe. 30-year US Treasury yield hits a new high again, will the US stock market fall?
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
Logically, as the long-term US Treasury yield rises as the risk-free rate, the returns on risk assets become less attractive. Therefore, funds flow from risk assets to long-term US Treasuries, causing risk asset prices to drop.
Observing the past year, when the 30-year US Treasury yield breaks new highs, the US stock market does experience declines, but these drops are short-lived.
This may be because funds flow from risk assets to the 30-year US Treasury, causing the price of the 30-year Treasury to rise, and thus the yield to fall.
So we see, several times in the past year: as the 30-year US Treasury yield reaches a new high and then begins to decline, the US stock market first falls and then continues to rise again. The most common source of misjudgment in financial reports is often not the numbers themselves, but focusing solely on the net profit figure.
Bithumb reported a net loss of 108.691 billion KRW (approximately 76.44 million USD) in the first half of this year. At first glance, this seems to indicate that the exchange has lost its profitability, but the reality is not that simple.
Breaking down the income statement reveals that Bithumb's exchange business remains profitable. The real changes in the income statement are mainly due to losses from crypto asset disposals, valuation losses, and litigation provisions. In the first half of 2026, Bithumb achieved operating revenue of 168.77 billion KRW (about 119 million USD), a year-on-year decrease of 48.7%; operating profit was 14.93 billion KRW (about 10.5 million USD), down 83.4% year-on-year. What truly dragged the company into loss were non-operating items. During the reporting period, Bithumb's non-operating expenses reached 155.05 billion KRW (about 109 million USD), resulting in a net loss of 108.69 billion KRW (about 76.44 million USD). In contrast, the company’s net profit for the same period in 2025 was 55.04 billion KRW (about 38.71 million USD). In the first half of the year, the company recognized crypto asset disposal gains of 11.99 billion KRW (about 843 thousand USD), while also recognizing disposal losses of 73.36 billion KRW (about 51.59 million USD). After offsetting these, the net disposal loss was approximately 61.37 billion KRW (about 43.16 million USD).
The financial report states that these crypto asset disposals are mainly related to business uses such as user activity rewards and blockchain network fees. Notably, the disposal loss for the same period in 2025 was only about 4.18 million USD, which increased to about 51.59 million USD in the first half of 2026—more than 12 times the previous year.
It is worth mentioning that on February 6, Bithumb experienced a Bitcoin misissuance incident. Bithumb later disclosed that the incident involved mistakenly issuing Bitcoin to 695 users, with a recovery rate exceeding 99%. However, the company did not separately disclose the final financial loss caused by this incident in the half-year report.
Additionally, the company confirmed a crypto asset valuation loss of 7.19 billion KRW (about 5.05 million USD). Combining the net disposal loss and valuation loss, the net loss related to crypto assets was approximately 68.55 billion KRW (about 48.21 million USD). As of the end of 2025, Bithumb’s litigation provisions were 2.68 billion KRW (about 1.88 million USD); by the end of June 2026, this figure had increased to 39.55 billion KRW (about 27.81 million USD), an increase of 36.87 billion KRW (about 25.93 million USD) in half a year.
This increase is very close to the approximately 36.8 billion KRW fine imposed on Bithumb by the Korea Financial Services Commission in March. The regulator found that Bithumb violated anti-money laundering obligations, customer identity verification, and transaction restrictions for virtual asset service providers.
Putting together the approximately 68.55 billion KRW (about 48.21 million USD) net loss from crypto assets and the approximately 36.87 billion KRW (about 25.93 million USD) increase in litigation provisions, the total is about 105.42 billion KRW (about 74.14 million USD), which is very close to the company’s half-year net loss of 108.69 billion KRW (about 76.44 million USD).
Of course, this is only an approximate comparison to help understand the sources of profit and cannot be directly treated as a complete reconciliation of the income statement, as taxes, interest income, and other non-operating items also affect the final result. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Friends, 30-year U.S. Treasuries have risen above 5.3%, the highest since 2007. To be honest, I wasn't surprised at all, but every time I climbed upward, it made me uneasy. To put it simply, the yield on U.S. Treasuries is the annualized return you can get from lending money to the U.S. government. The higher the yield, the more the bond is being sold off and the price falls. The long-term side is bonds over 10 years old, focusing on whether the market can still hold onto inflation and fiscal policy long into the future; The short end is within two years, following the Fed's policy expectations. Reveal the real data.
Last Friday, the 30-year stock broke through 5.3% in one fell swoop, reaching 5.31% intraday, the highest since June 2007. In 10 years, it climbed to 4.72%. But the short-term end has remained at 4.17% over two years. The long end is hard, the short end is loose, and the crack keeps getting bigger and bigger. Why can't the long end be pressed down? Three forces are twisting.
First, the supply is too aggressive. The U.S. annual fiscal deficit is nearly $2 trillion, and just last week the market absorbed $125 billion in medium- and long-term U.S. Treasuries. Even more aggressive is the AI financing wave competing with the government for long money—investment-grade corporate bond issuance in August reached $145.2 billion, setting a new record since 2020, with Alphabet alone issuing $25 billion. Tech giants are developing long-term bonds to focus on hash rate, competing with US Treasuries for the same batch of long-duration funds.
Second, major overseas creditors are leaving. In June, overall US Treasury holdings were reduced by 72.1 billion, with Japan decreasing by 26.4 billion in a single month, the largest drop in China, China reducing holdings by 25.9 billion, the lowest since 2008, and the UK also cutting by 8.7 billion.
Third, the most telling thing—long-term pressure is not on the United StatesHormuz "Chokehold"! Iran's Triple Strike, Bitcoin's $64K Bottom Dream Cools Off!
Iran's three warnings in three days: Strait remains closed, commercial ships face "joint liability" sanctions, and self-declared war diplomacy yields dual wins. The Middle East powder keg reignites, risk assets just caught a breath but are pushed back into risk-off mode.
Regarding BTC: Currently stuck at the $64K "false breakout" threshold, the resistance at $64,500 is even harder to break with volume. Geopolitical risks suppress incremental capital chasing highs; the support at $63,200 is under test. If the situation worsens, panic funds may lead the sell-off of high-volatility assets, and BTC could retest $62K-$61K. In the medium term, the blockade pushing oil prices higher intensifies inflation stickiness, delays rate cut expectations, and suppresses the rate-sensitive BTC valuation; however, the US-Iran confrontation escalation might also trigger the "digital gold" anti-censorship narrative, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Regarding ETH: Relatively more fragile. Although the ETH/BTC ratio has broken through, the sharp drop in overall market risk appetite will close the catch-up window. The $1,900 resistance may become the starting point of a new round of selling pressure, further delaying the altcoin season logic.
Conclusion: BTC "not falling" does not mean "able to rise." Iran's warnings are like laying down spikes on the runway for takeoff. At this moment, attention should be on oil prices and the VIX index, not candlestick charts. Cash and gold hold short-term advantages; BTC needs to wait for the true bottom after geopolitical risks are fully priced in.
$BTC $ETH #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ Guys, Xiaomi's mid-year report just came out, and the whole screen is debating whether the car division is saving the day or the phone division is holding it back. To be honest, both views are wrong. Let's start with the overall picture.
Revenue for the first half of the year was 208 billion, down 8.4% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.1 billion, down 37.9% year-on-year. Revenue dropped by a single digit, profit fell nearly 40% — this scissors gap is the core contradiction. The real collapse is neither the car nor the phone, but the money made from doing business.
Operating net income, which is the real money earned from selling goods, fell from 19.9 billion directly down to 6.3 billion, a 68% drop. Even worse, gains from value changes accounted for 42% of pre-tax profit, compared to only 22% last year. To translate — the 17.3 billion pre-tax profit on the books, 42% of it comes from investment asset appreciation and fair value changes, not from selling phones or cars. The cash flow is the scariest.
Operating cash flow dropped from 28 billion to 2 billion, a 92.7% decrease. For every 100 yuan of profit, only 14 yuan actually turned into cash, compared to 123 yuan last year. Inventory turnover stretched from 65 days to 90 days, indicating stockpiling; interest-bearing debt rose from 46.8 billion to 63.4 billion, borrowing one-third more. This report shows profits down 37%, but real cash down nearly 70%, with the gap filled by investment income. Back to cars, the growth is in revenue, not profit.
In Q2, deliveries were about 99,500 units, up 22.8% year-on-year, with monthly sales holding at 30,000 — this platform is truly stable. But in Q1, this segment operated at a loss of 3.1 billion, and gross margin dropped from 23.2% to 20.1%. The more they sell, the moreThis matter needs to be viewed from a different angle; don't just focus on the old narrative of "derivatives launch boosts trading volume." Coinbase aligning its perpetual contract infrastructure closer to the Deribit system is, frankly, performing surgery on the pricing power of BTC and ETH — from now on, the price movement won't be dictated by the spot market's small buy and sell orders alone, but will depend on options, perpetuals, funding rates, volatility, and the mood of market makers.
In the past, retail investors focused only on candlestick charts: BTC at 64,000, ETH at 1900, then drawing some support and resistance lines, thinking they understood the market. But professional markets watch a different set of indicators: implied volatility, term structure, put-call ratios, Gamma exposure, ETF creation/redemption data. The gap between these two perspectives is greater than the distance from Earth to the Moon.
For BTC, this is a necessary path toward maturity — the more it resembles a global macro asset, the more it requires complex derivative tools to hedge risks. Institutions entering the market are not just here to take the other side; while buying ETFs, they may have already set up short positions in the options market. So price fluctuations are no longer just the genuine intentions of buyers and sellers but are also influenced by market makers' hedging and volatility strategies. When volatility is low and suppressed, once it breaks out, these hedging positions can become accelerators.
ETH is even more interesting. It inherently has high volatility and a rich ecosystem narrative. The options market acts like a sensitive thermometer, reflecting market bets on upward or downward moves in advance. If ETH lingers around $1900 for a while and the options market suddenly shifts collectively in one direction, the spot market is very likely to be pulled along.
But specialization also means increased harshness. More derivatives do not mean easier profits; on the contrary, price volatility becomes more complex — what you think is a bullish move might be options sellers suppressing volatility; what you think is a sudden crash might be Gamma hedging and leveraged liquidations triggering simultaneously. Simply chasing news will likely become less effective.
So ultimately, we need to adjust our approach. BTC will increasingly resemble a macro hedge asset, and ETH will increasingly resemble a high-volatility tech asset. Those who don't understand volatility will only see half the price story. The signals for the next market cycle might not come from the spot market shouting first but from the options market sensing it ahead.Maji Big Brother was just charged protection fees by the market, then turned around and sold his position back! As of 21:10 Beijing time on August 18, the Hyperliquid address, long marked as 'Maji Big Brother' by public on-chain platforms, holds 4,860 long ETH positions, with a position value of about $9.22 million, but only $284,000 in account equity. Currently, the unrealized profit is close to zero, with a liquidation price of $1875.79. ETH fell another 1.1%, and this nearly $10 million long position is about to face forced liquidation. When I first reset my position, the most eye-catching number wasn't even 25x leverage. It's zero. The average opening price for this long position is about $1896.70, and the current marker price is also around $1896.70, with almost zero floating profit or loss. It seems like we've just returned to the cost line, and there's still time. But there were hardly any spots left in his account to withdraw. 4,860 ETH correspond to a position of about $9.22 million, with an account equity of only $284,000. Calculated by dividing the position value by account equity, the actual risk exposure has reached 32.5 times. The platform interface says 25x multiplier, but the account experiences even more intense price fluctuations. The liquidation price was only $1875.79. Today, ETH dropped to a low of $1885.78. In other words, after the price breaks below the intraday low, it will move down by about $10 and reach its liquidation line. What does ten dollars mean? ETH's price swing today exceeds $30. For ordinary spot traders, ten dollars might be just thatAs of the evening of August 18 today, $BTC has returned to around $64,000, maintaining a slight increase during the day; ETH is fluctuating around $1,900, and SOL is near $76, with no obvious one-sided market trend overall. After this afternoon, the market is actually a bit more comfortable than in the past few days: BTC dropped to around $62K → buying support → rebounded back to $64K → no obvious panic in the market. But there is a very important detail here: BTC is rising, but altcoins have not fully followed. This indicates that funds are currently returning to BTC first, rather than entering risk assets broadly. Today, BTC dominance continues to rise, currently about 58.8%, which actually shows that funds remain relatively cautious. The same applies to ETH. ETH → fluctuating around $1,900 → no clear follow-through with BTC → funds are still observing. Although SOL-related ETFs performed well recently, with net inflows of about $10.26 million last week, marking the strongest week since May, the price still hasn't truly established a strong trend. Therefore, I would not interpret today's rise as the start of a new bull market. It is more like: BTC holds $62K → buying begins to recover → BTC rebounds above $64K → ETH waits to take over → SOL and other major coins are being observed → altcoins have not yet broadly expanded. Moreover, there is an external pressure today: **U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices are rising, coupled with uncertainties in the Middle East situation. Bank of America 13F Shows Major Portfolio Shift: Slashes MicroStrategy by 70%, but Aggressively Increases BlackRock Ethereum ETF by 29 Times?
Wall Street's top investment banks are undergoing a drastic fundamental paradigm shift in their approach to crypto assets.
According to Bank of America's latest Q2 13F institutional holdings filing, as of June 30, its MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock holdings sharply contracted, dropping from approximately 3.97 million shares at the end of Q1 to about 1.18 million shares, a massive 70% reduction in a single quarter.
In stark contrast to the decisive profit-taking on MicroStrategy, Bank of America has shown an extremely aggressive accumulation stance on Ethereum spot assets. Its holdings of BlackRock's spot Ethereum ETF (ETHA) surged from a mere 67,500 shares at the end of Q1 to about 1.98 million shares, a nearly 29-fold increase, with the reported market value climbing to approximately $23.6 million at quarter-end.
On one side is the massive sell-off of the market's strongest "Bitcoin high-leverage shadow stock" over recent years; on the other is the retaliatory build-up of a compliant Ethereum spot ETF. This near-extreme long-short portfolio reshuffle by Bank of America sends three highly penetrating signals to the entire market:
First, Wall Street is accelerating the divestment of MicroStrategy's high premium bubble.
Before spot ETFs were fully popularized, institutions generally viewed MicroStrategy as the best leveraged proxy to capture Bitcoin's upward volatility. However, as MicroStrategy frequently relied on convertible bonds and equity issuance to stack debt, its premium over relative net asset value (mNAV) was pushed to extremely high levels. For top-tier financial institutions like Bank of America, which emphasize risk control and capital constraints, locking in billions in profits at high levels and reducing exposure to high-leverage shadow stocks is a standard and rational risk-reduction move.
Second, spot ETFs are officially replacing traditional proxy stocks as the standard tool for institutional asset allocation.
Previously, institutions bought MicroStrategy as a "compromise they had to make," but now, with spot ETFs from leading issuers like BlackRock fully rolled out, traditional long-term funds have a direct vehicle with very low fees, no custody transparency risk, and no debt default concerns, instantly dismantling the rigid allocation to traditional intermediary proxy stocks.
Third, traditional giants are independently building positions based on Ethereum's "infrastructure value."
A 29-fold increase in position size is not retail-style blind speculation but reflects that Wall Street's top buy-side firms are reconstructing Ethereum from a simple crypto token into a long-term foundational asset supporting global real-world asset tokenization (RWA), on-chain clearing, and smart contract financial infrastructure. Backed by BlackRock's absolute endorsement in institutional clearing, Ethereum is officially entering the core asset pools of traditional sovereign and commercial banks.
From buying shadow stocks with leverage to buying spot ETFs for broad asset allocation, Wall Street's understanding of the crypto world has moved beyond rough speculation into a new era of refined specialization.
Bank of America's massive reduction in MicroStrategy and 29-fold accumulation of Ethereum ETF—do you think this represents Wall Street's bet on Ethereum ecosystem catch-up, or is it simply an institutional tool-driven portfolio adjustment? In your portfolio for the second half of the year, do you favor highly elastic Bitcoin concept stocks or compliant, settled Ethereum spot assets?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Impact projection on BTC:
Bearish pressure: The surge in energy prices combined with inflation expectations is pushing up bond yields in developed economies such as U.S. Treasuries. The rise in risk-free interest rates increases the opportunity cost of holding risk assets like BTC, potentially limiting upside in the short term.
Bullish support: The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to 99.29 (a two-and-a-half-month low) and broken below its upward trendline. A weak dollar continues to provide a floor of support for Bitcoin.
Summary:
The current macro environment shows clear divergence. BTC is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between "high inflation expectations (bearish)" and "weak dollar (bullish)." Close attention is needed on upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals.
Macro anomaly: Diesel crack spread breaks 100, hitting a historic high, BTC faces multiple macro battles
Key data:
The U.S. diesel-to-crude oil "crack spread" has surged to $102.20 per barrel, a record high. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has broken above the downtrend line since April, ending a four-month decline.
Driving logic:
Due to U.S.-Iran conflicts and the situation in Ukraine, global diesel supply is extremely tight. It is currently harvest season with strong demand for equipment fuel. Diesel prices continue to rise and may transmit inflation through transportation and heating costs.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Regarding the impact on BTC, gold breaking above 4430 confirms that fiat currency credit is weakening while non-sovereign assets are becoming more expensive. Although the short-term trends of BTC and gold are disconnected, their mid-to-long-term pricing logic is converging. US Treasury yields hitting new highs, expanding debt scale, and eroding dollar credit—all three lines point in the same direction.Gold has taken the lead, and BTC is waiting for its own catalyst.$BTC $ETH $XAUT Macro perspective: The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has sharply dropped, becoming the biggest catalyst for the rebound
The core driving force behind this round of rebound comes from the significant improvement in macro interest rate expectations:
· The probability of maintaining the rate in September has risen to 69%: CME FedWatch shows that the market pricing for the Fed to hold steady in September has risen to 69%. A few weeks ago, the market still expected two more rate hikes before the end of 2026, and a September hike was once considered a high-probability event.
· Four macro data points have weakened consecutively: July retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month (expected +0.1%); CPI year-on-year dropped to 3.4%; PPI year-on-year fell to 4.7%; July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000.
· The 2-year US Treasury yield dropped about 20 basis points: It has been declining continuously since July 23, directly easing valuation pressure on risk assets. $BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 Very good question. If everyone is waiting for this last dip, will there really be a last dip? If there is, how can we be sure it’s only one dip and not an endless continuation of "the last dip after the last dip"? Answering this from two perspectives: 1. Analyzing from the correlation between miner costs and BTC’s historical price trends: Historically, BTC bear markets almost always break through the average electricity cost of miners, averaging around 30%. This is why the total network hash rate decreases during each bear market. The price drop only breaks through the electricity costs of some low-efficiency miners, which then prompts the entire network to enter a period of equipment renewal... This is a theory about the BTC network iterating and updating itself from the underlying hardware... Currently, BTC’s price barely holds at a level that breaks less than 10% of electricity costs, whereas in past major crashes and bear markets, the electricity cost break was around 30%. In other words, if this theory still holds, BTC still has about 20% downside space to reach the absolute bottom. Simply calculating, this price range is between 50,000 and 55,000 USD, which is also why the previous quote mentioned that the probability of BTC falling below 50,000 USD is extremely low. To put it plainly, most miners in the entire network are still making a little profit, but the process of eliminating outdated hash power is already underway... It’s not that the market is bad and miners are suffering, but that BTC’s supply system design inherently carries this cyclical nature. In other words,第一，直接作用于链上SNDK资产。交易所内的SNDK永续合约、链上代币化股权，价格锚定美股正股走势，长协消息每一次发酵，都会快速带动场内资金博弈。长协重塑了市场对存储行业的估值逻辑，多头叙事升温时，加密市场内$SNDK成交量、未平仓合约会快速冲高；一旦市场判定利好已经充分兑现，资金又会快速撤离，它的波动幅度往往远大于美股正股本身。 第二，带动RWA代币化赛道热度。这次事件让大量币圈交易者看见实体产业消息，可以传导到链上交易市场，资金开始更多关注其他美股映射代币，SpaceX、美光这类同类资产的短期活跃度同步被拉高，带动整个股票永续板块流量提升。 第三，情绪向外传导，间接影响存储概念山寨币。当AI存储缺货、长期订单锁定高景气的叙事扩散，一部分短线游资会顺势炒作加密原生存储题材币种，但这类炒作只是短期情绪联动，没有产业基本面支撑，持续性普遍偏弱。 需要明确，长协只是实体企业的商业合同，它不会改变大盘整体流动性。只有这套叙事持续引爆美股科技板块，推高整体市场风险偏好，才会间接给BTC、ETH带来微弱的情绪提振，无法成为驱动主流币趋势的核心变量。 本文仅行情复盘，不构成任何投资The surface and substance of Bitcoin's rebound: prices have returned, but the funding sources have changed. On the surface, the market warmed up to $2.28 trillion, but is the capital driving this rebound a planned institutional buy, or just a short-term bet? Overnight, the market showed an overall recovery in risk appetite. BTC recovered to $64,400, ETH to $1,910, SOL to $75.8, and XRP to $1. The total market capitalization approached $2.28 trillion. However, to assess the quality of this rise, it is necessary to classify the nature of the capital rather than just the price movement. - Fact check: The U.S. Treasury continues to push enforcement regulations on stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, and the regulatory framework appears to be becoming more concrete. This is seen as a factor that reduces business uncertainty for payment infrastructure and stablecoin issuers. - Fact check: Bitmine purchased an additional 9,926 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to about 5.815 million ETH. This accounts for approximately 4.8% of the total supply, representing a specific institution #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨
I am Cige. Gold has risen above 4430 USD, and silver is rising in sync. Spot gold broke through 4420 during the session and continued to hold above 4430 on August 18, with a monthly increase exceeding 10%.
What is more noteworthy is the change on the trading side. Susquehanna data shows that demand for gold options is shifting from downside protection to bullish options, with gold funds recording the strongest inflow since January. Bank of America’s Hartnett views the US debt approaching 40 trillion USD and rising interest expenses as a backdrop supporting gold allocation. The shift of option funds from protection to offense indicates that market sentiment has changed from defensive to actively betting on a rise.
Regarding the impact on BTC, gold breaking above 4430 confirms that fiat currency credit is weakening while non-sovereign assets are becoming more expensive. Although the short-term trends of BTC and gold are disconnected, their mid-to-long-term pricing logic is converging. US Treasury yields hitting new highs, expanding debt scale, and eroding dollar credit—all three lines point in the same direction. Gold has taken the lead, and BTC is waiting for its own catalyst.
That’s all from Cige, savor it. $BTC $XAUT $ETH Regarding the impact on BTC, in the short term, the continued rise in US Treasury yields will suppress risk asset valuations. In a high-interest-rate environment, capital flows to income-generating assets, so BTC, as a non-yielding asset, faces short-term pressure. But in the medium term, the new highs in US Treasury yields themselves indicate a fact: the world's safest asset is becoming increasingly expensive, reflecting the ongoing depletion of US dollar credit. $BTC $ETH $xSNDK $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Implications for BTC and risk assets: Currently, the US stock market is at historic highs, while the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields have risen above 4.7% and 5.2%, respectively. Rising energy prices and high financing costs are creating a double squeeze. Against the backdrop of marginal tightening of macro liquidity and extremely crowded traditional risk asset positions, BTC is very likely to follow the broader market in digesting valuation pressure in the short term, and caution is needed regarding the resonance risk brought by historical seasonal pullbacks.
Key data: The latest Bank of America global fund manager survey shows that market consensus is extremely crowded:
First, equity positions: a net 56% of respondents are overweight equities (the highest since November 2021).
Second, cash positions: have dropped to a historically low level of 3.5%.
Finally, unanimous expectations: the market has formed a "five no's" consensus—no macro landing, no Fed rate hikes, no AI capital cuts, no Democratic sweep, no shorts. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 The most contradictory part of this wave is: the short end is trading "no more rate hikes," while the long end is trading "U.S. long-term risk is more expensive" 📉 The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, indicating that fiscal deficits, bond issuance, and inflation risks are forcibly pushing up long-term funding costs.
For BTC, this environment is indeed tough in the short term, as the high long and short bond yields will continuously suppress valuations. But if above 5.3% tightens financial conditions too much, the market will sooner or later trade the policy pressure in reverse — the higher this needle pushes now, the greater the potential rebound in risk assets once it turns down later. ⚡️The scale of US debt continues to expand, increasing pressure on long-term bond issuance. Inflation remains above the 2% target, with both supply and demand pushing long-term yields higher. In June, the UK, Japan, and China all reduced their US Treasury holdings; overseas buyers are retreating, and new bond issuance can only be absorbed by domestic funds, which will only raise costs.$BTC $xSNDK $ETH The integration of Deribit and Coinbase derivatives indicates that the next round of pricing for $BTC and $ETH will increasingly resemble that of professional markets.
Coinbase's international business is preparing to migrate the underlying trading of perpetual contracts to the Deribit system and allow more qualified users to access options products for BTC, ETH, and others. This news may seem like a trading infrastructure update, but it is very important for market structure. Because it means that the pricing of $BTC and $ETH will increasingly depend on options, perpetuals, funding rates, volatility, and professional market making, rather than just spot trading.
In the past, many retail investors looked at BTC and ETH only by price. When BTC is around $64,000 and ETH around $1,900, they start drawing support and resistance levels. But professional markets look at a different set of factors: implied volatility of options, term structure, Put/Call ratios, perpetual funding rates, market maker Gamma, ETF creations/redemptions, and macro event risks. As the connection between Coinbase and Deribit deepens, this derivatives logic will more directly influence the prices that ordinary users see.
This represents maturation for $BTC. The more BTC resembles a global asset, the more it requires a mature derivatives market to manage risk. Institutions buying BTC ETFs may also use options to hedge downside; miners, funds, and market makers will all use derivatives to adjust exposure. Thus, BTC price is not just "rising because someone buys spot," but also influenced by options hedging and volatility trading. During low volatility, price may be suppressed, but once a breakout occurs, hedging activity can accelerate the move.
For $ETH, derivatives maturation is even more interesting. ETH itself is more volatile and has a richer ecosystem narrative. The options market will more sensitively reflect market judgments on upside elasticity or downside risk. If ETH grinds around $1,900 for a long time and the options market starts heavily betting on a certain direction, the spot price may be pulled by derivatives. When ETH breaks out, it often shows more elasticity than BTC because its position and volatility structure are more fragile.
However, professionalization also makes the market harsher. More options do not mean retail investors find it easier to profit; rather, prices will be influenced by more complex capital structures. What you think is bullish but doesn’t rise might be options sellers suppressing volatility; what you think is a sudden crash might be Gamma hedging and leverage liquidations triggering together. As the market matures, simply chasing news will become increasingly difficult.
Therefore, the Coinbase and Deribit connection should not be written off as just "derivatives launch is good for trading volume." The deeper meaning is that BTC and ETH are entering a more professional pricing era. BTC will increasingly resemble a macro asset, and ETH will increasingly resemble a high-volatility on-chain tech asset. Those who don’t understand volatility only see half the price story.
The next market cycle might not be signaled first by spot price moves, but by the options market sensing the shift first. Breaking signal arrival: The 30-year US Treasury yield soars to 5.29%-5.32%, hitting a new high since 2007; the 10-year US Treasury yield simultaneously rises above 4.72%, breaking through a decade-long interest rate ceiling. 1. Why are long-term bond yields skyrocketing? Four core reasons: 1. The US debt snowball keeps growing, with continuous issuance of long-term Treasuries, causing a surge in supply; combined with inflation still not falling to the 2% policy target, dual pressures push yields higher. 2. Major overseas buyers collectively retreat, with the UK, China, and Japan all significantly reducing US Treasury holdings in June. Overseas funds no longer absorb the debt, forcing the US to rely on domestic funds, driving up borrowing costs. 3. The AI industry is aggressively financing, with a large increase in corporate bond issuance, dividing market liquidity and intensifying the competition for long-term bond funds. 4. This is not a phenomenon unique to the US; Japanese government bonds are also being heavily sold off, global long-term rates are being repriced, quietly rewriting the global financial landscape. 2. Dual impact on BTC: short-term interest rates, mid-term US dollar credit Short-term: BTC inevitably under pressure US Treasury yields continue to rise, increasing the attractiveness of interest-bearing stable assets. BTC has no interest income, so risk assets face phased capital abandonment, making the market prone to suppression. Mid-term: underlying logic quietly reverses, but the big direction remains unchanged US Treasury yields keep hitting new highs, exposing a fatal hidden risk: US dollar credit is being continuously consumed. Multiple countries keep reducing US Treasury holdings, accelerating the de-dollarization trend steadily. Currently, holding dollar assets seems more attractive, but the credit foundation of US TreasuriesIn the crypto world, a compliant and disciplined newbie can sometimes outperform experienced veterans in earning ability.
Three Arrows Capital once managed over ten billion USD at its peak. Its founder Su Zhu proposed the "super cycle," firmly believing this bull market would not see a bear market. Because of their past success, they chose full leverage with no fallback, ultimately going to zero in a few weeks in 2022 and dragging down a batch of institutions.
Delphi Digital was similar. After extensive in-depth research, they publicly endorsed and heavily invested in LUNA, resulting in 40 billion USD going to zero in days.
Then there was PlanB's S2F model in 2021. The model accurately predicted Bitcoin prices multiple times, fitting historical data as well as physical laws. Countless people went all-in based on it. But the $100,000 target was missed, and the model was completely invalidated by the market.
In a treacherous market, the biggest trap is mistaking "past success" for "future ability." A few successful predictions can easily create a sense of control, but the real variables driving price are always changing.
Therefore, the most important thing in investing is not predicting the future but controlling yourself. Use less leverage, keep cash, have stop-losses, and maintain discipline.
This is also why I am willing to make Bitcoin my core position: it doesn't require you to precisely predict every narrative cycle. As long as you believe long-term that it will keep reaching new highs and eventually move to higher levels, you can reduce dependence on a complex future.
The market will always change, but every narrative Bitcoin captures may ultimately settle into its long-term value.The judgment of "fiscal credibility" holds. The 30-year US Treasury yield once touched 5.31%, hitting a new high since 2007. The surge in long-term rates is not due to short-term rate hike expectations but a repricing of long-term fiscal and inflation risks.
Why long-term rates are soaring
- Fiscal deficit out of control: The cumulative deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 is about $1.8 trillion, already exceeding the entire fiscal year 2025; the single-month deficit in July was $432.3 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase
- Interest expenses snowballing: Net interest expenses for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 reached $963 billion, up 14% year-on-year; the CBO expects interest expenses to reach $2.1 trillion by 2036
- Supply peak and weak auctions: The Treasury recently auctioned $25 billion of 30-year bonds with a winning yield of 5.216% (highest since 2001), with a subscription multiple of only 2.39, indicating weak demand
- Overseas buyers reducing holdings: In June 2026, Japan reduced holdings by $26.4 billion, China by $25.9 billion, and the UK by $8.7 billion; total overseas holdings of US debt decreased by $72.1 billion that month
- Rising inflation compensation demands: Investors require higher long-term inflation risk compensation, and term premiums are being repriced, pushing long-term rates away from short-term policy expectations
- AI giants issuing bonds diverting funds: Large tech companies are issuing substantial debt for AI infrastructure, competing with US Treasuries for limited funds, exacerbating the rise in long-term rates
Direct impact on assets
- Opportunity cost of zero-coupon assets soaring: Risk-free yields surpass 5%, reducing the attractiveness of interest-free assets like gold
- Divergence between gold and Bitcoin: Over the past year, gold rose 32% while Bitcoin fell 46%; gold is favored more by central banks and safe-haven funds, whereas Bitcoin is pressured in a high-interest-rate environment
Outlook
- Watch long-term rates: If the 30-year yield continues to rise and stabilizes at a high level, valuation pressure on risk assets will persist.
- Monitor fiscal and auction data: Marginal changes in deficits and interest expenses, as well as subscription multiples and winning yields of key maturity Treasury auctions, are high-frequency signals for market confidence.
- Track overseas holdings: The reduction or increase in holdings by major overseas buyers will directly affect US Treasury demand and long-term rate trends.
The current surge in long-term rates is a pricing of the US's long-term fiscal and inflation risks, not driven by short-term rate hike expectations. Until the "fiscal credibility" repricing is complete, the pressure of a high-rate environment on risk assets will continue. It is advisable to remain cautious and anchor tracking on long-term rates and fiscal data.Market Brief｜The rebound is a technical correction, not a reversal
$BTC $ETH
BTC has returned near 64,000, with a broad market rise, but market sentiment is generally lukewarm. This wave is more of a technical correction after overselling, not a trend reversal.
US stablecoin regulation sees positive developments, but funds are not blindly speculating on the news, waiting for implementation details.
Institutionally: ETH continues to be accumulated by institutions, but the market reaction is muted.
Coin differentiation: $SOL and $XRP are just following the broader market rebound.
📍BTC key levels
Support: 64000‑64200
Resistance: 64500‑65000
Only with volume-backed stabilization above 64800 is there room to expand upward; repeated failure to break through will lead back to consolidation, with caution for a dip to 63500.
Derivative funding rates show no overheating, leverage funds have not massively entered, the rebound is steady but lacks explosive power.
Focus on: trading volume + perpetual contract open interest
Price rising while positions decrease raises questions about the rebound.
The rebound can be moderate, but positions must be clear-headed; many losses in trading come from mistiming the rhythm.
⚠️Personal opinion, not investment advice #Anthropic年化营收达650亿美元 Family, Anthropic's latest funding and revenue data are quite shocking in the entire AI sector. An annualized revenue of $65 billion, with Q2 single-quarter revenue at $11.5 billion, more than double Q1's $4.73 billion. This growth rate is remarkable in any industry.
The company just completed a $65 billion funding round, with a post-investment valuation of $965 billion, and has submitted an S-1 draft to the SEC. Some investors are discussing that the year-end annualized revenue could reach $100 to $120 billion, with an IPO valuation seen at $2 trillion. These numbers are indeed astronomical.
But there are a few details worth pondering for a few more seconds. Annualized revenue does not equal confirmed full-year revenue; the $65 billion figure is an extrapolation based on current monthly revenue annualized and does not represent actual full-year revenue. The company submitted an S-1 draft, which is still some distance from the formal prospectus, and the valuation expectations come from investor discussions rather than official company guidance. The high computing power costs' pressure on profits and cash flow has not yet been disclosed in detail.
In the context of the entire AI race, Anthropic is approaching OpenAI's scale. OpenAI's annualized revenue is over $40 billion; if Anthropic really reaches $100 to $120 billion by year-end, it will at least surpass OpenAI in revenue scale. If it goes public with a $2 trillion valuation, it will trigger a revaluation of the overall AI chip and data center sector valuation expectations. $BTC $SNDK $SPCX AIoT is recovering, and the global tech hardware chain is emerging from its trough. As an underlying asset of the compute economy, BTC is tied to the prosperity of tech hardware. Strong smartphone sales mean stable chip demand, ensuring capital expenditure on computing infrastructure won't stop.
That's my take. Take some time to digest it. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Today let's talk about H, and to be clear: this H is not for Hero, it's for Hell, and also the "ha" for taking over the bag 🤡
Humanity Protocol sounds grand, a palm scan "proves you're a real person." The problem is, the crypto world is full of these identity narratives; they were hyped last round, and now they're just reheating old stories. Think about it.
Why I dare to short it: 1️⃣ The foundation just announced adjustments to the Vesting plan with a deadline, and some institutions have publicly chosen to unlock early at a discount — if institutions prefer to take a discount to exit early, are you telling me this is long-term value? Their vote with their feet is more honest than yours. 2️⃣ Have you seen the news about large transfers by Jump Trading? Market makers are offloading chips; to whom, you decide. 3️⃣ No matter what "value revaluation" hype is outside, I only see the volume and rhythm of the rebound screaming one phrase: bull trap. The pump is just to hand off the bags to you. 4️⃣ I won't even get into the "hacked or insider theft" rumors; anyway, negative news about this project spreads faster than its pump.
I'm only going 2x leverage, don't talk to me about maxing out leverage; even 2x is too much in a spike market. Staying alive means having a next trade. As usual: contracts carry risk, always use stop loss, position management is more important than direction. For reference only, not investment advice. Does geopolitical risk always crash the market???
The core transmission chain of geopolitical conflict: escalating tensions push up crude oil prices → inflation expectations rise → rate cut expectations are delayed → long-term bond yields rise, ultimately suppressing global risk assets.
First, it directly benefits gold and crude oil. Funds immediately flow into traditional safe-haven assets, and once oil prices face supply concerns, risk premiums quickly emerge; gold receives dual support from safe-haven demand and inflation hedging, which is the main driver behind gold's recent sustained strength.
Second, U.S. Treasuries and the stock market come under pressure. The market worries about inflation rebounding, long-term government bonds are sold off, long bond yields rise, risk-free returns increase, and institutions reduce allocations to high-risk assets like stocks and crypto; U.S. tech stocks are more prone to pullbacks.
Third, for the crypto market, in the short term it is mostly treated as a risk asset. During panic sell-offs, funds prioritize withdrawing from BTC and ETH, flowing into gold and the U.S. dollar; only if the conflict becomes prolonged and the market worries about the global credit system will Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative be picked up by funds, which is a medium- to long-term logic and unlikely to take effect in the short term.
Currently, the Middle East situation remains at the emotional level without materially disrupting oil transportation, causing only expectation disturbances. Once the conflict escalates further, the entire transmission chain will be rapidly activated, directly changing Federal Reserve policy expectations and becoming the dominant macro variable driving the market in the coming period.
This article is only a market review and does not constitute any investment advice #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $BTC $ETH $SNDK AIoT: Driven by the 618 shopping festival, Q2 IoT revenue grew 28% quarter-over-quarter to RMB 31.6 billion, showing a clear recovery in major home appliances and smart home products.
The variable for Q3 lies in memory chip prices: if they peak and pull back, smartphone gross margins will have room to recover. As new EV models scale up, their revenue contribution will continue to expand. Xiaomi's third quarter looks even more compelling than its second.
Consumer electronics demand is reboundingSTRC Buyback Thesis
I appreciate the debate, but I see the STRC structure differently — and I think much of it is intentional.
The $100 level is designed to function more like a ceiling than a simple target. Strategy itself is effectively the first seller around par, which makes a clean “buy $98, sell $100” trade less attractive. The real opportunity appears when investors are willing to buy lower and participate in the ecosystem rather than simply waiting for par. Ethereum ETF single-day net inflow of $30.85 million — BlackRock dominates 84%, institutional funds quietly accumulating ETH during sideways trading
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📊 1. Key Data: $30.85 million, net inflow for two consecutive days
On August 17, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $30.8512 million, maintaining a net inflow trend for two consecutive days.
· BlackRock ETHA: net inflow of $25.8966 million, accounting for 83.9% of total inflows
· Fidelity FETH: net inflow of $4.2727 million
· Total assets under management: $10.719 billion
· Net asset ratio: 4.66% (as a percentage of Ethereum's total market cap)
· Historical cumulative net inflow: $11.484 billion
🔍 2. Data Analysis: BlackRock's "one-man dominance," institutional fund structure divergence
BlackRock ETHA's single-day net inflow was $25.8966 million, making up 83.9% of the total net inflow. This is not the first time BlackRock has "taken the whole stage," but such a high proportion indicates that inflows into other ETF products have nearly stalled. BlackRock's channel advantage is forming a "winner-takes-all" pattern.
On August 16, Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of $10.21 million, with BlackRock ETHA netting $17.59 million, while other products saw almost no inflows. The total net inflow over two consecutive days was about $41.06 million, reversing the previous trend of continuous net outflows. Although the scale is not large, the directional shift is more noteworthy than the size itself.
📈 3. Comparison with BTC ETFs: Who is "accumulating"?
On August 17, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $30.8259 million. BlackRock IBIT net inflow was $22.8 million, and Fidelity FBTC net inflow was $22.5 million.
ETH ETF net inflow ($30.85 million) is almost on par with BTC ETF ($30.83 million). BlackRock ETHA ($25.89 million) and IBIT ($22.8 million) are nearly neck and neck. Against the backdrop of the ETH/BTC exchange rate still around 0.0295 (still below the May range of 0.033-0.035), institutional funds are flowing into both assets at almost the same pace.
💎 4. Summary: "Quiet accumulation" during sideways trading
ETH has been trading sideways between $1,850 and $1,900 for nearly two months, but ETF funds have not stopped flowing in — net inflows of about $41.06 million over two consecutive days, with BlackRock ETHA dominating this "quiet accumulation" with over 80% share. The longer the sideways period, the more thorough the chip turnover; the more thorough the chip turnover, the stronger the momentum at breakout.
Although the single-day net inflow of $30.85 million is not huge, the shift from continuous outflows to inflows signals a directional reversal that is more valuable than the scale itself. While the market is still debating whether ETH will rise or fall, institutions are quietly positioning with real money. Sideways trading does not mean no direction; rather, the direction is quietly being chosen by capital.
$ETH Smartphones: Q1 shipments reached 33.8 million units, down 19% YoY, but Average Selling Price (ASP) rose 8.2% YoY to RMB 1,310, setting a new record high. Volume fell, but prices rose—the high-end strategy is delivering results.
EVs (Automotive): In Q2, SU7 series deliveries hit 104,200 units with a gross margin of 20.1%, while net losses narrowed from RMB 3.1 billion in Q1 to RMB 2.06 billion. Economies of scale are kicking in, and breakeven isn't far off. #BTCVolumeDriesUp
The most valuable aspect to study about Bitcoin now has shifted from daily price swings to volatility compression, volume exhaustion, and chip reshuffling. As of August 18, BTC is trading around $64,100, with a daily range roughly between $63,389 and $64,507. For a while, BTC has been stuck in a narrow range above sixty thousand dollars, with little price movement, shrinking volume, and an increasingly cheap options market. The latest report from 10x Research directly describes this phase as one of the narrowest trading ranges in recent months, with trading volume down to a fraction of previous peaks and implied volatility further compressed near historic lows. Data from Glassnode is even more extreme: as of August 17, BTC one-week ATM implied volatility is only 25.71%, about 31.83% for one month, approximately 36.91% for three months, and around 39.6% for six months. Meanwhile, spot exchange volume measured in BTC has dropped to the lowest level since Glassnode began tracking in 2019. The current market state is very clear: spot demand is absent, sell pressure is increasingly unable to create sustained impact, and the options market is pricing future volatility very low. Such a state is difficult to maintain over the long term. On August 3rd, the U.S. national debt officially surpassed $40 trillion.
It is only $65 billion short of that "largest integer milestone in history."
This is not a prediction; it has already happened.
Just yesterday, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to 5.29%—the highest level since 2007. It is only 15 basis points away from the 5.44% peak set during the 2007 global financial crisis.
In the past 12 months, U.S. debt interest payments have reached $1.4 trillion.
What does $1.4 trillion mean? It is approaching and may soon surpass Social Security, becoming the largest single expenditure of the federal government.
You read that right—the U.S. government is paying more in interest than it will soon pay in pensions.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury was issued last week at a 5.126% yield, a 25-year high.
Hartnett’s original words were: "U.S. stocks hit record highs the same day U.S. Treasuries were issued at the highest yield in 25 years—this is reality."
His logic is solid: gold is the best hedge against dollar depreciation, bond crashes, and political risks. In his framework, the core principle is summed up in three words: stay away from the dollar.
Gold has indeed surged this year.
Since August, international gold prices rebounded from $4041/oz, once reaching $4400, with a weekly increase of over 7%. The cumulative increase in August was nearly 9%. Global central banks’ net gold purchases in Q2 were 288.9 tons, a 411% increase quarter-over-quarter.
And what about Bitcoin? It’s still hovering around $63,000–$64,000.
Gold has risen, but BTC hasn’t kept up.
But this is precisely the opportunity. #BTCVolumeDriesUp ₿ BTC is gathering momentum | After trading volume dries up, the next wave will be very large. The most noteworthy thing to study about Bitcoin right now has shifted from single-day fluctuations to volatility compression, volume exhaustion, and chip rearrangement. As of August 18, BTC was trading around $64,100, with the intraday high/low range of roughly $63,389 to $64,507. For a long time, BTC has been trapped in a narrow range above $60,000, with little price movement, shrinking trading volume, and the options market becoming increasingly cheap. The latest report from 10x Research directly describes this phase as one of the narrowest trading ranges in recent months, with trading volume dropping to just a fraction of previous peaks and implied volatility pushed further to near historic lows. Glassnode's data is even more extreme: as of August 17, BTC one-week options ATM implied volatility was only 25.71%, about 31.83% for one month, 36.91% for three months, and about 39.6% for six months. Meanwhile, spot exchange trading volume measured by BTC volume has dropped to its lowest level since Glassnode began tracking in 2019. The current state of the market is very clear: spot buyers are not being chased, selling is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain, and the options market is setting a very low price for future volatility. This is the state$SOL funds start moving against $BTC: ETF weekly inflow of $10.26 million, whales are back
SOL recently showed a notable divergence: the price has not clearly broken out yet, but institutional funds have already begun to act in advance.
As of the week ending August 14, SOL spot ETF net inflows were about $10.26 million, nearly 70 times the approximately $145,000 of the previous week, marking the best week since May.
At the same time, an address that previously profited over $20 million on SOL has been dormant for two years but has now repurchased 47,535 SOL, worth about $3.6 million.
This does not directly imply "SOL will rise immediately," but it indicates that around $75 has started to attract some capital.
In trading, I pay more attention to the $75 support and the $80–$83 resistance zones. If BTC consolidates while SOL breaks out first, and SOL/BTC continues to rise, that would be true relative strength.
Conversely, if ETF inflows continue and whales keep buying but the price never breaks resistance, then the question to consider is: who is consistently supplying chips to these buy orders?
#OKX预言家第二季正式上线 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Why was $SNDK bound to drop last night?
I rushed to open a position last night without time to analyze, so this article explains it retrospectively.
On one hand,
$SNDK
's borrow fee rate is 0.43%, the highest rate in the past 3 months. When I opened the position last night, the market hadn't closed yet, but the fee rate remained 0.43% at close.
This shows there is significant demand to borrow $SNDK for short selling in the US stock market.
On the other hand, the blue line below represents the supply volume of $SNDK lent out. While the borrow fee is rising, the supply volume lent out is decreasing.
In the US stock market, lenders can recall or even sell the lent shares at any time. Recalls may take a few trading days, but selling is almost like the shares were never lent out — it can be done at market price or limit orders.
Yet, despite this, the supply volume of $SNDK is decreasing. This indicates that holders of $SNDK spot shares are likely selling their shares, leaving fewer $SNDK available to lend.
Therefore, short sellers borrowing $SNDK to sell are driving the borrow fee higher, while spot holders are likely reducing their positions. This is why $SNDK was bound to drop last night.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $BTC This rebound is fake, brothers, don't get carried away:
1. Today, due to US July retail sales missing expectations, the market is betting on no rate hike and a weaker dollar, causing BTC to jump to around 64,400, up 2.5% in 24h. But look at the ETFs—spot BTC ETFs had continuous net outflows last week (8/10-8/14), with a net redemption of $886 million on August 14 alone, and even worse on August 13 with a net outflow of $2.066 billion. Even the strongest buyers like Fidelity's FBTC and IBIT are withdrawing. The bullish expectations can't drive institutional buying, showing how weak it is.
2. This is not "good news turning into bad news." The no rate hike decision will be made at the September Fed meeting; right now, it's just speculation. The price should have risen earlier. But the price bounced while institutions fled—a typical rebound with position reduction, not a reversal.
3. Technically, it's also capped: the daily RSI is neutral at 45-54, price is stuck between support at 63,000 and resistance at 65,600, with the 100-day moving average at 67,000 and 200-day at 72,500 above. The CLARITY Act vote is postponed to September 15, and big money won't enter before regulation is settled.
Rises need reasons, but falls don't. My thinking: don't catch a falling knife near 63,000; if volume holds at 62,000, you can lightly try going long to 63,000; but I think it will most likely return to 60,000. Contracts are bearish, spot holders should not add positions. The ETH/BTC ratio is the real thermometer for the next phase of the market; just looking at BTC rising to $65,000 is not enough.
Many people judge the crypto market only by whether BTC breaks through. When BTC rises from $64,000 to $65,000, they think the bull market has arrived; if it falls back to $63,000, they think the market is failing. But if you want to assess whether risk appetite has truly expanded, you can't just look at BTC—you also need to look at the ETH/BTC ratio.
BTC rising indicates that capital is willing to buy the most certain, most liquid, and easiest-to-understand asset for institutions in the crypto market. This is certainly good, but it does not mean the on-chain ecosystem has revived. Sometimes BTC strength actually shows that capital is still cautious, only daring to buy the main asset and not more complex on-chain financial assets.
ETH strengthening relative to BTC means something completely different. ETH represents smart contracts, stablecoins, DeFi, RWA, staking yields, and application layers. If ETH/BTC starts to strengthen, it means capital is not just buying digital gold but is willing to pay a premium again for the on-chain economy. This signal better represents the spread of market risk appetite than BTC rising alone.
Currently, ETH is around $1,900, BTC around $64,000, and the market has not fully given an answer for ETH's independent strength. ETH needs more than just BTC's momentum; it needs its own reasons: ETF inflows improving, staking yield narratives restarting, stablecoin and DeFi activity rebounding, and clearer regulatory boundaries. Without these, ETH's rise is likely just following BTC rather than being independently revalued.
So what we really need to watch next is not whether BTC can rise alone, but whether ETH is stronger when BTC rises. Can ETH move up when BTC is sideways? Can ETH resist declines when BTC pulls back slightly? If ETH/BTC starts to strengthen, it means capital is moving from defensive to offensive allocation.
This is also why every complete bull market cycle needs ETH participation. BTC opens the door, ETH decides whether there is economic activity behind it. If only BTC rises, the market looks more like institutional allocation; if ETH also strengthens, the market looks like an on-chain bull market.
BTC tells you whether money is entering crypto; ETH/BTC tells you whether money is willing to keep going deeper. One looks at the entrance, the other at the spread. The next real big market can't rely only on BTC crossing some round number; it also depends on whether ETH can take the baton.
6. $BTC's $64,000 is the defensive line, $ETH's $1,900 is the trust line
Though both are price levels, BTC's $64,000 and ETH's $1,900 mean different things. BTC is more like defending now, ETH is more like fighting for trust. As long as BTC doesn't fall under bad news, the market will feel its bottom support remains; ETH not falling is not enough—it must prove it can attract active buying again.
There is no shortage of bad news for BTC: regulatory meetings delayed, Clarity Act postponed, ETF funds fluctuating, geopolitical risks, oil price disturbances, high US bond yields—these are not easy conditions. Yet it can still hold between $63,000 and#30-Year US Treasury at 5.33% + BTC Funding Rate Hits 20-Month High: Macro Says Don't Take Risks, Derivatives Say Go Long
On the morning of August 18, two signals appeared simultaneously. @blckchaindaily reported at 08:29 that the yield on the 30-year US Treasury hit 5.33%, the highest since 2007, suppressing risk assets including BTC. @blckchaindaily also reported at 07:31 CryptoQuant data showing BTC funding rate reached a 20-month high, with derivatives traders turning bullish.
Macro says don't take risks, derivatives say go long. This is not a contradiction, it's a scissors difference.
What does 30-year US Treasury at 5.33% mean?
The 30-year Treasury yield reflects the market's pricing of long-term inflation and fiscal risk. 5.33% is the highest since 2007, meaning the long-term required return for holding US Treasuries is soaring. For risk assets, this is a continuous suppression—when the risk-free rate is already 5.33%, why would capital risk buying BTC?
But here is a counterintuitive point. @Alvin0617 said in a live broadcast something worth noting: looking at xhunt, basically few people are talking about Crypto anymore, but this might indicate the worst market conditions have likely passed. Low attention + new highs in Treasury yields combined precisely mark a "chip transfer period when no one is paying attention."
BTC funding rate hits 20-month high: derivatives are increasing long positions.
CryptoQuant data shows BTC funding rate at a 20-month high. This is also confirmed on OKX: $BTC perpetual on 8/18 at 10:00 reported $64,134.1, +1.33% in 24h; funding rate +0.0051%, open interest about $2.11 billion, up 1.69% in 24h. Rising funding rate + expanding open interest indicates new longs entering and willing to pay for positions.
This signal combined with 30-year US Treasury at 5.33% is clear. Macro capital (pensions, insurance, sovereign funds) is reducing risk asset allocation due to high Treasury yields, but derivatives traders (hedge funds, quant, leveraged traders) are increasing BTC longs. These two groups are doing opposite things because their time horizons and risk preferences differ. Derivatives traders focus on weekly-level rebounds, macro capital on yearly-level allocations.
@coinbureau added at 09:02: Jane Street's Q2 BTC ETF holdings doubled to $992 million, and Bitwise XRP ETF holdings grew 60-fold to $14 million. Jane Street is a market maker; its increased holdings are not long-term allocations but market making to profit from volatility—this behavior aligns with the rising derivatives funding rate.
On the ETH side: open interest is shrinking, but staking lock-up continues.
$ETH perpetual at $1,896.04, +0.13% in 24h; funding rate +0.0042%, open interest about $1.31 billion, down 3.33% in 24h. ETH's open interest shrinks in 24h, contrasting BTC's expanding open interest. ETH derivatives lack the "20-month high funding rate" heat BTC has.
But ETH's fundamentals are on a different path. The staking exit queue is zero again, with 2.17 million ETH queued to enter. Bitmine stakes 87% of ETH = 5.815 million ETH, about $11 billion. ETH does not rely on derivatives leverage to go long but tightens supply through staking lock-up. BTC is driven by leverage, ETH by lock-up.
Saylor provided a new framework:
@crypto_banter reported at 07:19 that Saylor said at Strategy Q2 investor Q&A that BTC is capital, not currency; stablecoins win as a medium of exchange. Saylor no longer positions BTC as digital gold or payment tool but as underlying capital. If this narrative is accepted by institutions, BTC's valuation logic shifts from comparing to gold to comparing to global capital stock.
When will the scissors difference converge?
The scissors difference between 30-year US Treasury at 5.33% and BTC funding rate at a 20-month high can only converge in two ways. Either Treasury yields fall (Fed rate cuts or fiscal improvement), relieving pressure on risk asset valuations and BTC rises accordingly; or Treasury yields continue rising, derivatives longs can't bear financing costs, funding rate falls, and BTC follows down.
@Alvin0617 offered a rhythm observation: BTC might test the 60-62K range. If it reaches that level, the longs with 20-month high funding rates will be liquidated, and the scissors difference converges by long withdrawal. Alternatively, Treasury yields might peak at 5.33% and fall back, then the scissors difference converges through macro easing.
Three routine questions:
30-year US Treasury at 5.33% hits a new high since 2007, do you bet it will fall back or continue rising?
BTC funding rate at 20-month high + expanding open interest, do you believe derivatives longs will win or macro suppression will win?
BTC is pushed by leverage, ETH is pulled by staking lock-up, which rebound path do you think is more sustainable?
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #USTreasury #FundingRate$ETH short positions can take profit now!!
Currently, the mainstream liquidity is just like this, the US stock market opened without much volatility, instead it is grinding sideways in a range. As a result, the Asian session this morning opened at a high short position, reaching a peak of 1918! It was worth the wait! The rebound went up and then continued to decline slowly, successfully hitting a double profit scenario!
The US stocks next door have already surged crazily, causing no new funds to enter the mainstream. My personal prediction is that Ethereum will still be in a volatile market today!
So my personal trading idea: short again when it rebounds to 1900, with a target around 1860!
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ Japanese Bitcoin "Whale" Swallows Nasdaq Shell Company — Metaplanet's "American Strategy" Ambition
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📊 1. Transaction Overview: 2,100 BTC to Buy a Nasdaq "Shell"
On August 18, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced it will invest 2,100 BTC (worth approximately $132.1 million) plus $2.5 million in cash, totaling about $134.6 million, to acquire approximately 95.7% of the issued shares of Nasdaq-listed Super League Enterprise (SLE). Upon completion, Super League will be renamed "Superplanet, Inc.", becoming Metaplanet's Bitcoin treasury platform in the U.S.
🏗️ 2. Transaction Structure: Not a "Shell Listing" but a "Bitcoin Capital Injection"
Metaplanet, through its wholly owned U.S. subsidiary, subscribed to newly issued shares of Super League at $3.00 per share. This is not a reverse merger or SPAC, but a strategic private equity capital injection.
After the transaction, Super League's original business will continue, and its Nasdaq listing status remains unchanged. Metaplanet will hold about 95.7% of shares with a five-year lock-up period, clearly indicating a long-term strategic holding.
🔥 3. Why Super League?
Super League is an immersive gaming and metaverse content company providing gaming experiences and media solutions for global brands on platforms like Roblox, Minecraft, and Fortnite. It owns a Nasdaq-listed shell — the asset Metaplanet values most. By acquiring an already listed, operational, and compliant U.S. company, Metaplanet bypasses the lengthy IPO process and directly gains a publicly traded platform in the U.S.
🏦 4. Strategic Intent: Replicate the "Strategy Model" to Build an "American Bitcoin Treasury"
Metaplanet currently holds 43,000 BTC, making it the world's third-largest public Bitcoin holder, behind Strategy and Marathon Digital.
Superplanet is positioned as the U.S. version of a Bitcoin treasury platform:
1. Dual-platform synergy: Metaplanet in Japan (TSE:3350) and Superplanet in the U.S. (Nasdaq) form a trans-Pacific Bitcoin treasury dual platform.
2. Enhanced financing capability: Superplanet can issue USD preferred shares and other securities in the U.S. to raise funds, increasing BTC per share without diluting common stock.
3. Bitcoin remains within the group: The injected 2,100 BTC will be consolidated into Metaplanet's financial statements and will not leave the group.
4. Benchmarking Strategy: Metaplanet is replicating Strategy's leverage model of "bond/stock financing → buying BTC → boosting BTC per share," with financing channels in both Japanese and U.S. capital markets.
📈 5. Market Impact
· For Metaplanet (3350.T): Gains a U.S. listing platform and USD financing channel, potentially further increasing BTC per share.
· For Super League (SLE): Transforms from a loss-making gaming company into a "Bitcoin treasury platform," fundamentally changing its valuation logic.
· For the Bitcoin market: 2,100 BTC locked in long-term strategic holdings reduces circulating supply.
⚠️ 6. Risks and Uncertainties
1. Regulatory approvals: Transaction requires shareholder approval, Nasdaq review, and regulatory approvals from U.S. and Japanese authorities.
2. Expected completion: Transaction is expected to close in Q4 2026.
3. Metaplanet's own stock pressure: Its stock has dropped about 43.70% this year. If investor confidence cannot be restored, this "dual-platform" story may become a double burden.
💎 7. Summary
Metaplanet's acquisition of control over Super League with 2,100 BTC essentially buys a "Bitcoin treasury" listing seat in the U.S. capital market. This marks the upgrade of the Bitcoin treasury model from a "Japanese experiment" to a "U.S.-Japan dual-platform strategy." While Strategy defends STRC par value and faces MSCI delisting risks, its Japanese imitator has quietly taken root in the U.S. capital market. This Bitcoin treasury race is shifting from "who buys more" to "who raises more."
$BTC Many people watch stock price fluctuations every day but overlook a bigger signal: the global capital's "pricing anchor" is changing.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield recently rose to about 5.29%–5.32%, hitting a new high since 2007; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also climbed above approximately 4.7%. This means investors holding long-term U.S. bonds are demanding higher returns to compensate for future uncertainties.
This rise is not simply due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes but is driven by several combined forces: expanding U.S. fiscal deficits, increased long-term bond supply, persistent inflationary pressures, and financing demands from AI infrastructure investments—all pushing long-term rates higher.
Many believe that if the Fed cuts rates in the future, U.S. Treasury yields will naturally fall. But the issue is that short-term and long-term rates are not the same. Even if policy rates decline, if the market worries about U.S. debt levels, fiscal pressures, and recurring inflation, long-term yields may remain elevated.
Personally, I am more concerned that this may be changing the asset pricing logic for the coming years. In recent years, capital has been accustomed to a low-interest-rate environment, allowing tech stocks, growth stocks, gold, BTC, and other assets to enjoy valuation expansion. But if long-term rates stay high, funding costs will rise significantly, and the market will become more selective, with only truly profitable and cash-flow-positive companies earning higher premiums.
However, this is not purely negative. High yields mean the bond market's attractiveness is increasing, and if the economy cools noticeably, long-term U.S. Treasuries could see capital inflows.
What really needs to be observed now is not the 5% figure itself but whether it can be sustained long-term. If high rates become the norm, global assets will undergo a revaluation.
In short, this round of rising U.S. Treasury yields reflects not an ordinary fluctuation but a global recalculation of "risk" and "return." In the near future, interest rates may continue to be a key variable affecting the performance of stocks, gold, and BTC.
$SNDK $OKB $ETH
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 LAB whale decentralized addresses preparing to continue selling? 🔍
$LAB suspected insider address 0x0d9…751d0 transferred 9.1 million tokens to 10 new addresses three hours ago, with a total value of $720,000. The receiving addresses have not yet transferred or sold the tokens.
The token's market cap is currently still $36.85 million, wallet address 0x3E83f85f3CDD47d9e9eCfBa83F6C383D7f5011E2Bitcoin price has surpassed the $64,000 mark, suddenly pulling the market's previously tense nerves. At that moment, the price movement itself might not have been shocking, but what truly accelerated heartbeats was the surge in position changes and sentiment reversal behind it. Short positions were liquidated en masse in a short period; on-chain data shows that over 60,000 traders hit liquidation thresholds within a single session, with total liquidations across the network reaching $179.1 million. This figure is not the most extreme in a bull market cycle but is enough to make market participants reassess the current position structure and competitive mindset. Looking closely at this rally, the key point is not how much Bitcoin rose, but how it rose. During the price advance, the open interest did not increase correspondingly; instead, it showed a clear decline. This indicates that the rally was not driven by new capital entering actively but more likely triggered by forced short position liquidations causing a chain reaction. There is a common saying in the market: short covering is the fuel for the rise, but once the fuel burns out, whether the price can hold depends on whether new buyers are willing to take over. Currently, we are precisely in this observation window. The decline in open interest means leveraged funds are retreating, risk exposure is shrinking, and the market's thermometer has slightly cooled down from the boiling point. From a market psychology perspective, this fluctuation resembles a small-scale skirmish between bulls and bears. Shorts accumulated large positions earlier, perhaps due to concerns about macro liquidity or simply believing the short-term rise was excessive and needed a correction. However, Bitcoin did not give them much breathing room; the price quickly surgedThursday night session, CPI released, a few words
Tonight the CPI inflation data is out, inflation slightly cools down.
Overall CPI year-on-year declined, core CPI also below market expectations. Simply put: inflation pressure further eases, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts rise again.
But the crypto market remains realistic—the moment data was released, a quick surge happened, but without incremental funds from outside, most gains were quickly given back after the spike, falling back to the original consolidation range. Macro data is somewhat positive, but on-chain funds remain cautious, gains are taken and then fall back.
BTC
Closed near 63400 in a range-bound session.
CPI positive triggered a pulse rally, but the high level couldn't hold, quickly falling back after the spike. Macro expectations improved, but lack of solid buying. Key support at 62700-62400; a valid break would trigger deeper correction; resistance at 64400-64800, volume and hold above needed to confirm sentiment recovery. Typical positive pulse rally, still maintaining a bottoming consolidation pattern.
ETH
Stable near low 1872.
Among major coins, still relatively resilient, repeatedly bottoming around 1840. Data stimulus brought a slight rebound, but upward momentum insufficient, 1910 level remains pressured. Bottom is gradually solidifying, but rebound lacks volume support; base holdings can be kept, no expectation for short-term explosive rally.
SOL
Range-bound near 74.3.
High-beta coin most sensitive to inflation data, quickly surged on news, then followed the market down. Still operating within 71-77 box, no effective breakout. Coin elasticity remains, but lack of incremental market volume prevents independent one-sided rally.
XRP
Sideways near 0.99 at low level.
Relatively weak in the market, CPI positive hardly drives effective rebound. Funds continue to marginalize, market attention low. XRP can't escape low levels, market unlikely to see broad rally.
DOGE
Sideways near 0.067, almost halted.
Meme sector remains at emotional freezing point, macro positives hard to transmit, no funds, no volatility, directly ignored.
Summary
Inflation data further cools, macro pressure marginally eases, the basis for deep sustained declines has disappeared. Current lack of rise is not due to macro logic failure, but lack of incremental funds, overall sentiment at freezing point. CPI and PPI inflation data both released, main macro risks for the week basically cleared. Next is time for space, bottoming and washing chips, waiting for funds to return.
Overnight strategy
Macro marginal warming, bottom consolidation pattern, hold light positions, avoid betting on one-sided direction.
BTC: Hold above 62400, hold support, no bearish view, don't chase highs on positive rebounds.
ETH: Keep base holdings, wait patiently for 1840 to hold and market to warm.
SOL: Box consolidation, hold small positions above 71, avoid betting on breakout.
XRP, DOGE: Continue to avoid.
Key sentence
Inflation risk further released, positives start to blunt, market at emotional bottom, big drop risk narrows, but time needed to see stabilization signals, endure chips, funds, and sentiment, no rush to act.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注