Orbit Post Sitemap
Today's Market Daily is here~
I'm Ci Ge. With interest rates unchanged, the Dow Jones plunged 2.19%, and BTC edged down 0.17% to $63,718. On the surface, things seem calm, but beneath the surface, the structure has changed.
Why didn't BTC follow the US stock market plunge?
The Dow fell 2.19%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.74%, and the S&P dropped 1.52%. But BTC only fell by 0.17%. The decoupling between BTC and tech stocks is accelerating, with BTC rising about 6% since July and the semiconductor sector falling nearly 20%. K33 Research is right: Nasdaq positions are becoming increasingly crowded, BTC is consolidating near multi-year lows, and correlation weakening is inevitable.
Microsoft's cloud business exceeded expectations, surging nearly 8% in the night session, but Micron fell nearly 10%, and storage chips continued to plunge. AI application software is strengthening, hardware is under comprehensive pressure, and funds are shifting from pure hardware narratives to performance-driven targets. BTC is caught in the middle, neither being dragged down by hardware nor taking off with software, and is now carving its own rhythm.
Structural changes in the clearing map
BTC is currently at 63,782, with limited liquidation pressure. Above, about $500 million in short liquidations has gathered between 64,700 and 65,300; if this area is broken, short covering would amplify upward momentum. Downward, long positions liquidated about $440 million, slightly lower than above. The liquidation structure is biased upward to test short liquidity.
ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive days, but the scale of outflows is narrowing
ETFs have seen net outflows for five consecutive days, but the scale of outflows has narrowed day by day, and selling pressure is gradually fading. The short-term oscillation with a strong tendency remains unchanged; after selling pressure fades, any slight buying pressure can push it up.
A 63.2% probability of a rate hike in September—a knife hanging over the head
CME data shows a 63.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike in September. Only 36.8% remained unchanged. The power of the three opposing votes is still intensifying, and the market is repricing the risk of a rate hike in September. But this news has already been largely digested by BTC.
The direction hasn't changed, but the volatility is on the stronger side
Continue to hold long positions below 64,000, and move the stop loss up to 63,000. If the price pulls back to 63,000 to 63,500, observe the strength of support before deciding whether to add to the position. The above range between 64,700 and 65,300 is the short liquidation zone; if volume rises and it breaks through, BTC is expected to test 66,000.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes a new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading. #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? $BTC $ETH $SNDK The impact of the inflation rebound on the crypto market is a mix of bulls and bears—short-term bearish pressure (tightening liquidity, declining risk appetite), but medium- to long-term structural bullish logic also exists (anti-inflation narrative, capital rotation). 📉 Negative side: tightening liquidity, pressure on risk appetite 1. Rising rate hike expectations directly suppress valuations. The most direct impact of the inflation rebound is delaying or even reversing rate cut expectations. At the beginning of 2026, the market originally priced in rate cuts, but as inflation data fluctuated, the focus shifted mid-year to a possible rate hike within the year. By mid-July, federal funds rate futures implied a cumulative increase of about 39 basis points by year-end. This is a direct negative for crypto assets—Bitcoin and Ethereum are considered high-duration risk assets in asset allocation frameworks and are most sensitive to rising interest rates. A rise in risk-free rates means the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets increases, compressing the theoretical fair value. 2. Capital outflows from risk assets, institutions accelerate exit In a high interest rate environment, funds are clearly withdrawing from risk assets. In the first half of 2026, investors withdrew about $8 billion from crypto investment products within eight weeks, setting a record for the longest and largest capital outflow in history. During May, when the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 5%, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $649 million. When U.S. Treasuries can provide risk-free returns of 4.5%-5%, investors' incentive to hold highly volatile crypto assets drops sharply. 3. Stronger US Dollar Suppresses Dollar-Denominated Crypto Assets High interest rates often push the dollar higher. The dollar moved#摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETP
$ESP
Today, the Ministry of Commerce announced that the People's Bank of China also simultaneously injected over 870 billion yuan in reverse repo funds. The market's first reaction was a brief rebound in risk appetite, but crypto didn't follow suit. I think this is quite worth dismantling—it exposes the most genuine psychology of capital: macro liquidity is loosening, but money is reluctant to move into highly volatile assets.
The Ministry of Commerce's response to the U.S. "decoupling and supply chain cuts" this time was tough but not escalating, essentially signaling that trade frictions will not worsen in the short term. The central bank also released short-term liquidity on the same day, which should have boosted global risk appetite. But look at Cryptorank's data: only 150 VCs participated in crypto financing in July, an 87% drop from the peak. These figures indicate that the liquidity crunch in the crypto market is not a liquidity issue, but a structural contraction in risk appetite.
Funds are now not about "how much money you have," but about "money willing to take risks." The central bank's liquidity is pushing government bonds and A-shares, while the core contradiction is VC withdrawal on the crypto side. Funds staying in safe-haven logic for a long time won't rush back into small coins just because of a trade statement.
For BTC, ETH, ESP: BTC IS TRADING SIDEWAYS NEAR $0.06, TEMPORARILY ACTING AS A LIQUIDITY ANCHOR BUT LACKING UPWARD MOMENTUM. ETH and SOL depend on whether BTC can regain its key position first; otherwise, highly elastic stocks will only continue to face valuation pressure. ESP is now $0.06, down nearly 3% in 24 hours, acting more like an emotional amplifier—if the main line isn't rising, it's hard for it to strengthen on its own.
Next, let's look at two conditions: First, can ESP rise back above $0.065; Second, whether volume during the rebound is amplified in coordination. Without these two conditions, short-term fluctuations are just noise.
Risk warning: The transmission of macro events to crypto is weakening. Don't blindly buy the dip just because central banks are easing liquidity or making trade statements.The continuous plunge of leveraged ETFs in the South Korean memory sector reveals that its market structure has evolved from merely amplifying individual stock fluctuations to becoming an independent risk source that dominates pricing due to its oversized scale. The Southern Eastspring 2x long Hynix ETF has fallen nearly 85% from its July peak, and the massive mismatch between its asset size (once exceeding HKD 30 billion) and the underlying stock's average daily trading volume has made the ETF's rebalancing and redemption operations the main drivers intensifying one-way selling pressure in the market.
This is not an isolated incident. On July 20, the ETF experienced a sharp rally completely diverging from the underlying stock's trend, which analysts attributed to liquidity mismatches and market maker failures. The ongoing steep decline now represents a concentrated outbreak of this structural fragility during the downtrend. The massive assets of the leveraged ETF (far exceeding the liquidity of the underlying stock) create a negative feedback loop during the decline, and its volatility has in turn influenced and dominated market sentiment pricing for the two leading South Korean memory companies. $SKHYNIX #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 1️⃣ 9,030 $BTC ~ $589M just withdrawn from Binance in 1 day. The largest in the past 5 months 🐳
2️⃣ This is not retail. Most likely whales/funds moving to cold wallets → immediately reducing selling pressure 🔒
3️⃣ Interesting point: The 30-day momentum of $BTC just recovered from -21% to nearly 0 and is starting to turn positive again 📈
4️⃣ History: Oct 2025, Jan 2026, Apr 2026. Every time momentum goes from deep negative → crossing 0, a strong wave follows
5️⃣ A similar setup is appearing now: large net withdrawal + momentum turning positive. The market is definitely paying attention 👀
6️⃣ But no guarantees. Momentum is still fluctuating around 0 for weeks, no decisive candle yet
7️⃣ This is a “signal to watch” not yet a “signal to enter a trade.” Price confirmation breaking resistance is needed
8️⃣ In summary: big players are storing coins. Bulls are trying to push. Stay disciplined, wait for a real breakout before running ❤️1. Core Topic (Extracted) At 02:00 Beijing time on July 30, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision: keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive time holding steady rates. But the real shock was the voting result—9 in favor, 3 against. Logan, Hamak, and Kashkari, three hawkish commissioners, advocated for a direct 25 basis point rate hike. After Walsh's first press conference during his tenure, U.S. stocks plunged late in trading, with the Dow closing down over 1,100 points and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down about 3%. BTC first dipped and then reclaimed the 65,000 mark, moving like a needle with a long lower shadow all day. 2. Why does it dominate the top trend? Maintaining interest rates is supposed to "exhaust all the good news," but the three anti-rate hike proposals sent a dangerous signal: rate hikes are only being postponed, not excluded. The market has cut year-end rate cut expectations from 44 basis points to 36 basis points, marking the most divided rate meeting since 2022. For crypto, the macro ceiling has been lowered again, and the coin market on July ×24 is the first to vote with its feet. 3. Extended Analysis (Original Layer 3) (1) Walsh's "cutting forward-looking guidance" is equivalent to pulling out the market's crutch; the volatility amplifier is activated, and on-chain perpetual responds immediately to the aftermath. (2) The probability of rate hikes has surged unusually due to oil prices and the Middle East—the debate over 'long pain turning into short pain' gives hawks confidence. (3) The classic crypto trap of "buy expectations and sell facts": not raising rates does not mean good news; ETF funds have already split (BTC had a single-day net inflow of 128 million, BlackRock attracted 200 million, but ETH Grayscale sold 210 million in one day). 4Regarding KAITO, the current large fluctuations are not necessarily due to institutional investors; the bigger reasons are:
1. Unlocking is extremely stressful
KAITO has experienced significant token unlock events recently and in the coming months, with a large number of previously locked tokens entering the circulating market. The market's biggest concern is:
* Early Investors
* Core contributors
* Team members
After obtaining the unlock token, will it be sold? Recently, the unlock scale has reached tens of millions of dollars, and there are even larger unlock plans for August.
For small- and mid-cap tokens, this increase in supply can easily lead to sharp volatility.
2. AI sector capital rotation
KAITO belongs to the AI sector.
The AI sector has a unique feature:
* When prices rise, the whole market rushes in
* When prices drop, funds withdraw extremely quickly
Funds are often found in:
* TAO
* FET
* RNDR
* WLD
* KAITO
and rotated between them.
When funds flow to other hotspots, KAITO is prone to short-term fluctuations of 10%-20%.
3. Retail investors dominate
Some of the recent gains have been driven more by retail investors rather than continued whale buying.
The characteristics of this market are:
* Rising quickly
* Falls quickly
* Prone to false breakouts
Once the amount of chasing at high prices decreases, the price will quickly fall.
4. Changes in project fundamentals
In early 2026, the Yaps system Kaito originally relied on was affected by changes in X (Twitter) policy, and the project shifted to Kaito Studio.
The market is focused on:
* Whether the new business model can succeed
* Whether the new tokenomics are effective
There is still controversy.
As a result, capital sentiment keeps shifting, leading to sharp price fluctuations.
Is it the dealer selling the goods?
My judgment:
30% likely due to large players reducing positions, and 70% due to unlocking + market sentiment.
If it really is a typical dealer selling, you usually see:
✅ Trading volume continues to expand
✅ Prices keep hitting new lows
✅ The rebound is getting weaker
KAITO currently looks more like:
* Someone is selling
* Someone answered
* Intense bullish and bearish competition
This is a stage of high volatility, not a complete collapse.
My outlook on KAITO's future
Short-term (1-3 months)
* Slightly volatile and weak
* The unlocking pressure remains
* Volatility may continue to be significant
Midterm (6-12 months)
* If AI narratives heat up again
* Kaito Studio user growth is being realized
There is a chance for a strong recovery. $KAITO Brothers, ZHIPU dropped another 16.38% today, currently priced at $110.6. Triple negative news: The dark side of the moon released the 2.8 trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-source model, ranking first globally in programming capability — GLM's technological leadership is no longer exclusive, with a single-day plunge of 28.49% on July 17; On July 8, the first batch of restricted shares was unlocked + 1,588 HKD for a placement of 198 million shares, with an additional 40% to be unlocked in January 2027; A trillion-yuan market cap corresponds to a loss of 4.7 billion + negative 8.1 billion in net assets + 267% debt ratio. When the technological premium disappears, the fundamentals begin to settle. On-chain: Bears were once crushed by a 31% rebound, but the ultimate winner remains the bears—10x leveraged whale longs at an average position price of $174 have continued to lose $360,000. ZHIPU is currently priced at 110.6, with core resistance above at $145-$150 and strong resistance at $204; psychological support below is $105-$110, with a lifeline at $114 and an extreme bottom at $15. If $114 cannot be held, the downside will open. High volatility remains the norm. The technological monopoly premium has been broken; fast in and out is the bottom line. What do you think is the core of ZIPU? Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice. $BTC $SNDK $ZHIPU #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes the new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, shares rose 8.5% in after-hours #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, causing a sharp drop in stock prices and sparking controversy Stop guessing, the Fed won't save you tonight
To be honest, just hearing the words "interest rate decision" makes me want to roll my eyes.
In the early hours of this morning Beijing time, the Federal Reserve is about to read its draft again. But who still cares about whether to add those 25 basis points? The real sword is hidden in the shrinking numbers—whether it's 60 billion a month or 40 billion, this thing is a hundred times more deadly than Powell's poker face. But I have to pour cold water on it: don't expect this time to point you in the right direction—even they are confused.
Last night (July 29), two pieces of data were released, contradicting themselves: the 5-year inflation forecast fell below 2.1%, and another ghost story about deflation is about to begin; But looking back, the core PCE is firmly stuck at 3.4%. Interest rate cuts? Stagflation? Pick a letter, but no matter how I look at it, it seems like a gamble.
Let me tell you something more heartbreaking. Before today's market open, Texas Instruments (TXN) saw its industrial chip inventory turnover days soar to 142 days—not 14 days, but 142 days. Those who keep saying "AI saves everything" can first explain why Micron (MU)'s DDR5 contract price hasn't risen this week? What happened to the promised permanent shortage? What happened to the promised HBM supply shortage? It turns out that orders for phones and PCs have cooled down to the point where no one wants to pay a premium to stockpile anymore.
Even more ironically, the warehouses of the world's top five PC brands have finished product inventory up 22% compared to last year, while what can be sold to consumers is 6% less. In other words, a large batch of metal boxes labeled as "AI PCs" never made it into users' studies, but were piled up on OEM factory shelves to gather dust. What kind of prosperity is this?
How crazy has the market gotten now? Let me show you a detailed scene: the CBOE skew index (SKEW) surged to 152 this morning, the highest panic pricing since the August 2025 crash; At the same time, the VIX Fear Index hovered at 16.5, looking like a peaceful and peaceful life. The same market, two personalities—do you think Wall Street is schizophrenic, or have we all been played like monkeys?
So my attitude is very simple—don't count, you can't keep up.
All these DCF models, discount rates, and forward guidance are a joke compared to TIPS' real returns (which were fluctuating between -0.7% and -0.2% this morning). Valuation anchor? It doesn't exist. Every "technical increase" or "strategic reduction" you make now is, frankly, a way to boost your own courage.
So what should we do? I can't give you a sure-win code, but I have one iron rule: if your position makes the first thing you do every day when you wake up is to check your phone and watch the market, then don't move anything today. No increases, no decreases, no bottom-fishing, no cutting losses. You close the interface and do something really cheesy—pick up your phone or computer with the latest large model and use it all day long.
Ask yourself three questions: Do you really can't live without its AI features every day? Would you be willing to pay an extra thousand yuan for this level of intelligence? How many people around you really care whether it has an NPU?
You know the answer in your heart.
Tonight, Powell said whatever he wanted, drawing the dot map however he wanted. But the real bottom or top is never shouted at a monetary policy meeting; it's something you can feel with your fingertips. Don't let your position hold you hostage, and don't let Wall Street's narrative think for you. The more chaotic the market, the more you should trust your own feel, not others' voices.
Is it exciting enough? If you think "a bit more swearing" or "a bit more sarcasm," I can keep adjusting it—it's just a matter of your words.[Graphic Observation | Central Bank Weekly Temperature] Beijing time 11:44, Jin10 article focus: Trump criticizes the committee, not Powell; the Federal Reserve experiences an internal split unseen in 50 years.
Background summary: Trump bluntly states that Powell expects a rate cut and blames the "politicized committee" entirely. Three members supported a rate hike at this meeting, setting a rare record early in the tenure of the new Fed chair. The September meeting may become a crucial window for deciding a policy shift.
Cross-asset snapshot: Spot gold 4,052.75 (-0.33%); EUR/USD 1.1452 (-0.10%); USD/JPY 163.51 (+0.08%). Gold, the euro, and the yen simultaneously reflect interest rate expectations, dollar strength, and safe-haven demand, making them suitable external thermometers for crypto risk appetite.
Verification point: If gold strengthens while the dollar also strengthens, risk assets are more likely to come under pressure; if the dollar falls and U.S. stocks recover, BTC/ETH are more likely to follow the risk appetite rebound.
Risk warning: If central bank statements, PCE/CPI, or employment data exceed expectations, the above cross-asset observations need to be reassessed. For market observation only, not investment advice. Pump.fun's token graduation rate suddenly surged eightfold, and I actually don't dare to treat it as a meme market recovery.
Last Friday, the graduation rate surged to 6.7%, compared to the previous four days' average of 4.7%, while the average for the entire June was less than one-eighth of that. The data is indeed impressive, but project quality cannot improve collectively within days; what truly changes is the BOOST mechanism.
Previously, after tokens migrated to PumpSwap, about 20% of the migration liquidity would be permanently locked in the pool. Now, these funds will automatically buy tokens within the first 5 minutes after graduation, and the purchased tokens will be burned afterward.
This effectively provides a public, definite bid for each upcoming graduation program.
BOOST itself happens after graduation and won't directly help the project cross the graduation line, but it changes everyone's plan before graduation: as long as tokens are pushed past the threshold, there will be automatic buying relays afterward. Some people set up early, while others specifically buy before graduation, waiting for the auto-buy order to start and sell.
So the rise in graduation rates only proves that "crossing the threshold" has become more profitable, but does not prove these coins can last longer.
Looking at new coins now, the reference value of the instant rally after graduation has actually decreased. I'm more interested in the 10–30 minutes after BOOST ends: whether transactions can continue to expand, whether new buyers are still entering, and whether prices can hold the migration zone. Once automatic buying stops, trading volume shrinks rapidly and prices immediately fall back; the earlier excitement is most likely just a front-race around mechanism rewards.
More diplomas don't mean more good projects.
Do you think this is a true MEME revival, or Pump.fun have used a new mechanism to "make the graduation rate look nice"?Last night, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, and the indices weakened across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5.33%, with storage and optical communication sectors under broad pressure.
Many people still simply attribute the decline to liquidity. Looking at Bain Capital's moves reveals the thinking of large funds. They took over Kioxia at a low point years ago—a trade that was initially a loss—but rode the current storage bull market to gradually exit, realizing huge profits. After the chips were distributed, Kioxia's stock price was halved, and retail investors who bought at the peak were completely trapped.
The hardware sector has already entered a downward cycle. Market narratives shift quickly; when no positive catalysts are found, negative factors are continuously mined to keep pushing prices down.
The global storage sector experienced a synchronized sell-off, with timing highly coincident. $MU and $SKHY both peaked in late June. Technology growth funds from China, the US, and South Korea simultaneously exited the sector, and valuations in this high-level sector began to be digested continuously.
Insights from the Korean market's panic sell-off:
This large-scale liquidation in the Korean stock market is not accidental; multiple risks combined to form a death spiral.
1. The index structure is extremely distorted, with over half of KOSPI's weight tied to Samsung and $SKHY. As the storage rally weakens, there is no safe-haven sector in the entire market;
2. Leverage tools are excessively loosened, with 2x leveraged ETFs on individual stocks, broker financing, and short-term credit channels running in parallel. Young retail investors heavily leveraged their positions to enter the market;
3. Foreign capital's concentrated selling combined with local interest rate hikes, mid-cycle regulatory tightening of margin rules, triggered a chain reaction of mass forced liquidations, opening a negative feedback loop of selling more as prices fall.
During the same period, the market showed clear divergence. Overseas storage giants continued to collapse, while Changxin showed independent resilience. The core logic lies in the independent pricing expectations brought by domestic substitution, and passive foreign capital allocation is expected to follow.
However, this should be viewed objectively; it does not mean all domestic tech stocks will strengthen. Most are just rebounding, and only a few with core logic have sustained upward potential.
Discussing practical strategies based on the market: the Nasdaq has officially entered an adjustment range, so operate cautiously (many are trapped, selectively staying inactive).
Currently, capital preference has clearly shifted toward high-dividend defensive assets. The sector will continue to split internally. Previously purely speculative stocks without earnings support will find it hard to recover. Many are crowding to speculate on Changxin, but in my view, the current cost-performance ratio is not advantageous, so there is no need to blindly pile in.
Patience is most important in a volatile market. Do not open new positions lightly; wait for positions with better safety margins before acting.
$SKHY
$SNDK$BTC $ETH $SNDK 9 votes in favor of keeping rates unchanged, 3 in favor of raising rates. This is the first time since 2016 that three policy hike proposals have appeared in alignment. The chairs of the three regional Federal Reserves—Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas—have jointly voted to raise rates. A quarter of the committee members are calling for an immediate rate hike. What about Walsh? He is more hawkish than anyone else, saying this is not a pause, but just the beginning of a policy adjustment. When necessary and appropriate, they will raise rates without hesitation. Inflation cannot be solved in nine weeks. In plain language, I know it should be raised, but I just won't. The market reaction was very impressive The Dow plunged 1,153 points, marking its largest single-day drop in 15 months. The Nasdaq fell for six consecutive days and entered a correction phase. Philadelphia Semiconductor plunged 5.33%. Nvidia and Tesla were all under pressure. U.S. stocks were in despair, but Bitcoin stayed steady above 64,000. Gold broke through 4,100. Is this abnormal? Too unusual. Normally, hawkish signals mean a stronger dollar means risk assets are under pressure. Gold and Bitcoin, these non-yielding assets, should be drained. But last night, the opposite happened: the dollar didn't rise, US Treasury yields surged and then retreated. Funds didn't flow to the dollar, but to gold and crypto An independent precious metals trader said something like: Although Walsh's overall stance is quite hawkish, precious metals are leading the asset rebound. This is not risk avoidance, it's a position reversal. The market is voting with its feet, voting distrust to Warsh's hawkish mouth. You say you're hawkish, fine, then raise rates? You don't increase it. You say you want to fight inflation. Inflation is already 4.1, yet you're still holding your ground. You say this is just the beginning. The market has been hearing this kind of nonsense for five years Microsoft Q4 operating cash flow was $55.4 billion: How to interpret free cash flow after capital expenditure doubled?
The cash flow statement shows that Microsoft's FY2026 Q4 operating cash flow was $55.441 billion, up about 30% from $42.647 billion in the same period last year. Cash purchases of property and equipment for the quarter amounted to USD 35.802 billion. Based on a simple calculation of "operating cash flow minus cash capital expenditure," the remaining amount is approximately USD 19.639 billion. This calculation is convenient for comparison but is not a GAAP measure separately named by the company in a press release.
Operating cash flow exceeding net profit cannot be attributed solely to profitability. Unearned revenue increased by $22.428 billion, accounts receivable increased by $21.084 billion in cash outflow, and accounts payable increased by $2.365 billion; Depreciation, amortization, and other non-cash adjustments were $11.022 billion. Large enterprises concentrated contract signing, invoicing, and collections at the end of the fiscal year, making Q4 distinctly seasonal, making it unsuitable for direct annualization.
Capital expenditure is growing even faster. Q4 cash purchases of property and equipment rose from $17.079 billion to $35.802 billion, and full-year sales increased from $64.551 billion to $115.948 billion. These payments serve cloud, AI, first-party products, and global data centers, but the company does not break down every dollar by Azure, Copilot, or internal R&D, and the article does not refer to all expenditures as single product costs.
As of the end of June, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $76.843 billion, compared to $94.565 billion in the same period last year. Liquidity remains substantial, but cash capital expenditures, investment purchases, buybacks, and dividends throughout the year are all using cash. At the end of the period, short-term and long-term debt totaled approximately 40.294 billion USD, of which 9.227 billion USD matured within one year; When analyzing net cash, both types of debt should be included.
Net properties and equipment on the balance sheet rose to $313.076 billion, compared to $204.966 billion last year; Accumulated depreciation also rose to USD 118.691 billion. After new assets are put into service, depreciation continues to be added to costs in subsequent quarters. Therefore, strong operating margins this quarter do not mean that FY2027 absorbed all the costs of new capacity; future monitoring of utilization and depreciation growth should be observed.
In terms of shareholder returns, the company returned $10.2 billion in Q4 through dividends and buybacks; The cash flow statement shows $4.579 billion in buybacks and $6.758 billion in cash dividends. The rounded total amount in a press release may differ in time or classification from the details of the cash flow statement, and should be presented according to their original standards, rather than being forced into the same figure.
So Microsoft's cash story isn't a choice between 'good cash flow' or 'high capital expenditure.' A more accurate description is: core business and year-end receipts boosted operating cash flow, AI and cloud expansion pushed cash capital expenditure to new highs, and the balance sheet accumulated a larger future depreciation base. The next step is to see whether the revenue, gross profit, and cash recovery from the new capacity can continue to cover the investment.The selling pressure in 7 days was 415 million, and today alone, 198 million yuan was released from staking. $HYPE faced the largest single-day staking unstaking in Hyperliquid's history.
1. In the next 7 days, 6.93 million HYPE (about 415 million) will be unstaked. Of the 198 million yuan queued today, 120 million have already been released, with a large portion already transferred into CEXs and ready to be sold at any time.
2. The market is likely also quite shaken by selling pressure: HYPE has fallen from its high of 76.67 and has since retraced 24%. But don't panic too much, because part of this potential selling pressure probably belongs to Grayscale. They need to switch their tokens from "staking" to "liquid custody" status for institutions to put them into the ETF shell, not to sell.
3. And honestly, to this day, Hyperliquid remains a rare project that allows 99% of protocol fees on-chain to buy back tokens. So even now, with massive unstaking of chips, some institutions are doing the opposite—Staking 32.9 million at FalconX-linked addresses.
4. My judgment: 54 is a key support level. If you want to trade swing trading, consider entering at 54~55, and stop loss if it falls below 52.Analysis of the four potential demon coins!
Judge separately
ON: Has strong demon currency potential. Alpha spot anchor, contract trading, and large player position structure are all the strongest, but it has risen 267% in the past 30 days, indicating a mature market and not a latent coin. Holding 0.240 and recovering 0.300 and 0.328 is necessary to test 0.36876 and 0.40422 again.
HOLO: The most noteworthy new launch among the four cryptocurrencies. Price +20%, OI +21%, transaction volume expanded by 1.68 times, fees were close to zero, and contract/spot was only 3.4 times, indicating a relatively healthy spot market ignition. Breaking through 0.089 and maintaining spot volume growth can upgrade to short squeezing/main rising; If it falls below 0.070, ignition fails.
BTW: The Demon Coin attribute is still there, but not a new previous main upgrade. It once rose about 1138% from its low, and now has pulled back 60% from its peak. Currently, prices are falling, OI is rising, and both accounts and large holders are severely overwhelmed, forming a bullish chain structure. It needs to regain the 0.10 to 0.118 range for a recovery; a break below 0.0726 may lead to further liquidation.
CROSS: Only static potential. Market capitalization, liquidity rate, and historical gains are acceptable, but spot is only 190,000 U and contract value is 1.63 million U, with lower open interest and a severe contraction in trading volume. Only after breaking through 0.104 and the simultaneous amplification of spot, futures, and OI will it be considered a true ignition.
So we need to look at it from two perspectives:
Current strongest demon coin structure: ON
The freshest and most reasonably structured former main pickup candidate: HOLO
High-risk repair observation: BTW
Not yet launched: CROSS OpenAI's ARR surged explosively in July, significantly narrowing the gap with Anthropic
Here comes today's most noteworthy news. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar made it clear at an internal employee meeting on Wednesday that July's annualized recurring revenue (ARR) has already surpassed the total for the entire second quarter.
Based on TickerTrends data: Q2 three-month ARR rose from 28.8 billion at the end of April to 37.3 billion at the end of June, a net increase of about 11.4 billion. Conservatively speaking, the net ARR increase in July alone exceeded the total increase in Q2, indicating that OpenAI's ARR has rapidly surged past $50 billion and is currently chasing Anthropic.
A more aggressive interpretation is that revenue in July alone exceeded the combined total of three months in Q2 (about 8.25 billion), so ARR is heading straight for 100 billion—this figure is a bit alarming, so let's look at it conservatively.
The growth drivers are very clear:
- The GPT-5.6 series models have been implemented
- New enterprise product ChatGPT Work launched
- Codex coding tool users surged sharply in July
Combined with the large model price wars discussed in the past two weeks (Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Cursor all loosening quotas and doubling quotas), enterprise adoption has entered a scenario-based, multi-model engineering phase. Short-term gross margins will definitely be under pressure, but in the medium to long term, whether token consumption can explode is the key.
The market is growing, and OpenAI is accelerating its catch-up this time, which is worth keeping an eye on.
$OPENAI $ANTHROPIC #HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week
$ACH
The fastest way to lose money this time isn't to misjudge the direction, but to mistake the rebound for a reversal.
ACH jumped 20% in one day, falling from 0.00 to 0.01, with trading volume surging to 2.9 billion. The common mistake retail investors make is seeing such a rally and thinking "an opportunity has arrived," but never asking: Who pulled the money in? Where do you go after the pull?
**The Real Issue**
It's not that ACH rose 20%, but that the whole market is shrinking. In July, only 150 VCs participated in crypto financing, the lowest since November 2020, down 87% from the 2022 peak. Liquidity is nearly dried up, and funds will only cluster together in BTC, ETH, SOL. ACH is a countercoin driven by short-term sentiment, not institutional consensus. No matter how large the trading volume is, without sustained inflow, the price is like a castle on the sand.
**Who is the capital selecting**
Money is not divided equally. It first flows to mainstream coins, narrative hotspots, and storytelling sectors. ACH's rise is just a chance for the market to give weak assets a "last flash." Truly smart money won't be heavily invested here. Retail investors chase in, thinking they've gotten a bargain, but in reality, they're falling into a liquidity trap.
**My Judgment**
What ACH should focus on right now is not price fluctuations, but whether it can regain market attention. Without attention, there is no fluidity. At this stage, first trust in liquidity, then look at the narrative. Without capital to reprice, no matter how full the story is, it's just noise.
Risk Boundary: If ACH's volume cannot remain high in the next 48 hours, the price will most likely give back most of its gains. Don't treat the rebound as a trend.Recently, the crypto market has continued to weaken, and many people have begun to worry that some exchanges may face operational risks. Whether to be cautious of high-risk exchanges has become a hot topic in the industry.
From my long-term observation, I have a judgment dimension: I keep an eye on the platform coins' trends:
During a normal downturn, if the platform token drops sharply against the trend, extra caution is needed; But now, the opposite is happening: the overall market is bearish, and the tokens on major exchanges have only dropped little. This divergence is actually unusual. I've dug into the underlying movements, so I won't go into detail for now.
One thing is certain: all exchanges are extremely dependent on overall market liquidity. Normally, shrinking market trading volume directly impacts exchange revenue. This is just my personal way of filtering risky platforms; not all platforms will have problems.$ETH 1910, still playing.
The number of people borrowing money on the chain has dropped by 90%. Previously, the more they bounced, the more they borrowed, but now they stopped. Takers sell more than they buy, and active buying volume has also shrunk.
But interestingly, the position started to increase again, and the positions I had previously cut off came back.
When the price bounces, the spot is running, and the contract is accepted. The money hasn't come in, so the position is returned first.
I don't get who would take the bounce up. If you trust them, the money is gone.
#eth $ETHBreaking news! $LITE Management Dialogue Sends a Key Signal: Can We Still Trust "Light"? To start with the conclusion: it's not that "Guang" is out of the loop, but that Guang Communications' profit logic is shifting. In the past, the market was speculated on EML shortages, price hikes, and capacity competition; The market is now worried that Lumentum has already expanded production aggressively, copper cables haven't hit a wall immediately, and CPO may even be delayed—since supply is increasing and next-generation technology is delayed, has the optical communication hype run out? The latest management update from Lumentum gave the answer: the hype isn't over, but you can't use the same logic anymore. By the end of 2027, 800G and 1.6T pluggable optical modules will remain the main sources of revenue; After the end of 2027, as copper cables become less cost-effective, CPO and high-power continuous optical lasers may take over. Therefore, U.S. Stock Investment Network believes the real issue is not whether AI still lacks light, but whether Lumentum can smoothly move from this EML shortage to the next high-power CW laser and CPO cycle. First, the source: PhotonCap, a photonics technology research institute, recently communicated with Kathryn Ta, Vice President of Investor Relations at Lumentum, and PhotonCap supplemented the technical analysis based on this. The following content is compiled from third-party communication notes and is not a verbatim statement from management. 1. What exactly is Lumentum? There are thousands of GPs in the data center🚨 Same AI spending. Two completely different market reactions. Microsoft surged. Meta sank. The difference wasn't how much they spent—it was how quickly that spending is turning into profits. Microsoft showed that its AI investments are already paying off. Azure keeps accelerating, Copilot adoption is growing, and enterprise demand remains incredibly strong. Investors see a clear path from AI spending to future cash flow. Meta, on the other hand, is still investing aggressively. Its advertising🚨 The biggest irony in crypto? Bitcoin became what it was created to replace. Bitcoin was invented so people would never have to trust banks again. Today, one of its most popular investment products is a spot ETF, and roughly 80% of U.S. spot ETF Bitcoin is held by a single custodian. That's the paradox. The technology was built for decentralization, but mass adoption is happening through traditional financial institutions. It's not necessarily a bad thing—it has brought billions in institution#Fed's three votes for rate hike, tonight's PCE becomes the new focus
1. Fresh interpretation of the Fed meeting
The early morning policy meeting ultimately chose to keep rates unchanged, but the internal division was particularly large. Among the 12 voting members, as many as 3 directly demanded an immediate 25 basis point hike, with hawkish voices stronger than the market expected.
The chairman's speech did not soften at all, repeatedly focusing on inflation, clearly stating that whether to raise rates further depends entirely on tonight's PCE price data. This is why the entire crypto community is currently hesitant to open positions casually.
Simply put: PCE is the Fed's most important inflation indicator. If tonight's data is high, it confirms inflation is uncontrollable, making a September rate hike highly likely, and mainstream coins will probably face pressure and decline; if the data cools down, short-term easing expectations will return, giving ETH and BTC the confidence to rebound.
2. Current status combined with Ethereum daily chart
Taking ETH daily chart as an example, current price is 1915, with the daily middle band at 1880 considered the short-term lifeline, and the price is just slightly oscillating above this middle band.
The upper Bollinger band at 1968 is the first strong resistance, and the SAR point at 1977 is still above the price. The large cycle has not fully turned bullish; the current slight rise is entirely supported by market bets on positive PCE data.
KDJ has reached a high level and is about to turn down, indicating weak momentum for bulls. If tonight's PCE data surprises negatively, it could easily retest the 1880 support, and if broken, it will head straight to the lower Bollinger band at 1791.
During this period, I can clearly feel that the market is completely driven by macro news, technical analysis is ineffective, and the real direction will only emerge after the data release.
3. My personal view
I hold spot positions myself and haven't dared to add positions these days; this is a typical wait-and-see market before data.
1. Three officials voting for a rate hike is not trivial, showing the Fed's extremely low tolerance for inflation internally. Don't blindly go long; downside risks are hidden.
2. There are two ways to respond to tonight's PCE: if data exceeds expectations and rises, reduce positions to hedge and don't stubbornly hold through the pullback; if data is below expectations, stabilize above 1968 before slightly adding positions.
3. The 1791 support at the bottom is the last defense line. As long as it doesn't break, the long-term layout logic remains. If data is negative and breaks through, the short-term trend weakens directly, so control losses timely.
In short, this is a data-driven market with high uncertainty. Heavy positions mean handing over initiative to news, which is low cost-effectiveness.
Just casually sharing my position strategy with everyone
Are there friends like me holding ETH spot and not daring to move positions now? What do you predict about tonight's PCE data—will it be hot or cooling?
If data is negative and the market retests 1880 support, do you plan to buy the dip and add positions or reduce and exit? Share your response plans in the comments.
$ETH The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but policy expectations may still fluctuate, and changes in the interest rate path will directly affect risk asset sentiment
Currently, the risk of high-leverage positions has increased, and the market remains in a period of high volatility. It is best to avoid chasing gains, selling losses, and excessive leverage
I believe the current market is not simply about rising or falling, but rather about finding a new capital balance point. While everyone is paying attention to price changes, they should also pay attention to institutional capital flows and macro event changes in $BTC Recently, I strongly feel that a turning point in the crypto market is approaching. Here is my core logic:
1. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins himself strongly advocates the CLARITY Act, and the Trump administration as a whole is paving the way for the U.S. crypto RWA sector. For the remainder of this year, the AI sector is likely to enter a period of consolidation, with crypto becoming the main focus for the U.S. and the overall direction already clear.
2. The August bill is basically unlikely to be implemented, with the biggest obstacle being the Trump family's involvement in crypto-related interests. Even if the legal proposal is temporarily blocked, the implementation of tokenized stocks remains unaffected: DTC has obtained a three-year pilot exemption letter from the SEC, allowing US and US Treasury stocks to be compliantly listed on-chain to exchanges; The core function of the CLARITY Act is to define the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, clarify the jurisdiction of digital commodities, stablecoins, and derivatives, and determine whether institutions can conduct their business in compliance.
3. Once the law is implemented and combined with DTC pilots, a single platform can legally integrate stocks, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and various derivatives, share margin accounts, enable 24-hour trading to connect DeFi, and enable global circulation of physical assets on-chain. Compliant exchanges, public blockchains carrying tokenized stock TVL, and on-chain infrastructure will all see their valuations revalued.
4. The value logic of public blockchains needs to be re-examined: In the first two cycles, derivatives like Perpdex had high premiums, essentially because junk projects were rampant and funds clustered around certain targets. Now, platforms like Backpack are starting to invest in on-chain stockbrokerage, with the core competition being the scale of asset issuance on-chain, profiting through service fees and business revenue sharing, with models highly consistent with traditional brokerages. The TVL of on-chain stocks directly determines the underlying value of the public chain. If hundreds of billions of traditional assets flood in, the valuation ceiling for tokens will be completely opened.
Additionally, according to reliable sources in the US, the bill is highly likely to take effect in the fourth quarter of this year, with the market officially launching the main rally in the first quarter of next year. No need to rush to bottom-fish; just wait and see for positions in August and September. The probability of favorable measures being implemented in August is low, so contrarian positioning is more reliable.
Today, the market experienced a panic-driven plunge, with many people being forced out and reducing positions. However, after a bottoming out with increased volume, the market has rebounded. Next, focus on the Fed's decision volatility. I originally planned to hold positions in the 130-150 range of SK Hynix, but now I have abandoned the profit expectation above 200 and shifted to the more flexible crypto sector. The timing is ripe. #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight Market Watch: Confusing signals from OpenAI's revenue data, the real lifeline of the storage sector
OpenAI CFO Sarah Flair stated that the annualized ARR for July alone has already surpassed the total revenue for Q2, and Q2 itself already performed well.
Here's a key concept: ARR is calculated by directly multiplying the current month's revenue by 12 for annualized projection. For example, if I make 10,000 U in a single day trading cryptocurrency, the annualized increase is 3.65 million U. Monthly ARR exceeding quarterly total revenue is an easily achievable result at the statistical level and does not directly equate to explosive business growth.
On the contrary, some market opinions suggest that the company's release of this statement may indirectly reflect that the actual financial data may fall short of expectations.
A key reminder to traders in the storage sector who are bottom-fishing: be sure to closely monitor changes in OpenAI's real revenue, as this is the core indicator of this storage market.
The core driver behind this round of soaring storage chip prices is the frenzied stockpiling of AI data centers, which has driven up supply and demand. OpenAI is the largest client in the data center sector, with upstream computing power procurement and capital expenditure heavily dependent on its business expansion. The entire chain exhibits a clear pattern of capital circulation.
Once OpenAI's revenue growth slows down, the chain will pass on to cloud providers' capital expenditures, shaking the logic of storage demand.
It's wise to keep cash ready and wait and see; if Oracle experiences a performance blowdown, the market will be flooded with opportunities.
Disclaimer: This is solely a market logic inference and does not constitute investment advice.⚠️ Don't be fooled by Bitcoin $BTC! Altcoins are experiencing a cold period, with 71% of coins completely lagging behind!
Data shows that among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, only 29% are currently above the 50-day moving average! Compare to the severely battered Nasdaq (47% above the 50-day moving average), the breadth of altcoin markets is simply dismal!
The current situation is extremely harsh: BTC and ETH are holding up the market on top, while the vast majority of altcoins below are trading sideways with heavy losses. Although Ethereum's recent outperformance of BTC has left the market with a glimmer of illusion of a "knockoff season," the Clarity Act was suspended by Congress, directly removing the biggest regulatory catalyst. Expert reminder: Big money is still hedged ahead of the Fed's decision and macro data. Before new capital enters the market, never blindly buy those altcoins that have dropped in massive volume—liquidity drainage is hard to climb! 📉🥀 #山寨币 #BTC #以太坊 #加密市场分析The South Korean stock market has experienced multiple circuit breakers this year. If it happened once or twice, it could be seen as deleveraging, but with so many times and right at critical points, it's hard not to suspect targeted harvesting.
In fact, starting from the second quarter earnings reports this year, the narrative around tech stocks has shifted towards structural, vertical, and capital rotation themes, which leads to small index fluctuations but large individual stock volatility.
Moreover, this situation is likely to persist for 1-2 years, and such volatility is a normal phenomenon in financial markets. Looking back at financial history, there have been many periods of high volatility and high risk.
Learning to control risk and adjust positions is an essential skill to ensure you don't get liquidated; staying in the game is a basic survival rule.
However, the South Korean government does not impose restrictions but rather promotes this. Under such high volatility, retail investors suffer the most losses, while institutions, large investors, and capitalists can basically walk away unscathed.
Actually, for the South Korean government, they can tolerate ordinary people being harvested, but they cannot tolerate capital outflows after harvesting and public opposition.
Therefore, South Korea plans to limit retail investors' leveraged ETF exposure and set investment caps.
But even so, it cannot hide the fact that South Korea is one of the important blood bags for capital harvesting and dollar sucking, second only to Japan, but South Korea lacks Japan's resilience.
Under the nominal deleveraging in South Korea, the losses fall on the interests of the common people while the wealthy capitalists' pockets grow. The people are like chives, harvested endlessly, one crop after another.
Friends, what you need to be alert to is to prepare for a future phase of high volatility, control your positions well, and manage risks. The better the market, the more cautious you should be!I. Summary of the day's core hot news (underlying catalysts for the market) 1. Federal Reserve July FOMC Decision Implemented (Biggest Macro Event of the Week) In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with mainstream market expectations. However, the vote showed rare divisions, with 3 out of 12 members supporting a 25 basis point rate hike, sending a clear hawkish signal. Chairman Wash stated that he would reserve options for further policy tightening and refused to release easing expectations. After the decision was implemented, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose above 4.67%, suppressing valuations of global growth risk assets. Core market contradiction: Keeping interest rates unchanged is a neutral outcome, but many hawkish members have dispelled market hopes for rapid rate cuts this year, making it difficult for BTC to gain liquidity easing momentum. 2. Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the transmission logic of major asset classes. Middle East conflicts escalate again, with Iran attacking US military bases and ongoing US-Saudi airstrikes, and international crude oil prices rebounding. Market Transmission Chains: Oil prices rose→ inflation expectations increased→ the Federal Reserve maintained high interest rate expectations, the traditional logic of "buying crypto assets for safe havens amid war" failed, and geopolitical factors indirectly suppressed BTC. 3. Structural differentiation in the US tech sector, risk sentiment spilling over. The storage sector continues its plunging rally, with Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix continuing to sell; Microsoft's earnings report far exceeded expectations, but Meta's earnings guidance remained weak, and AI giants generally faced high capital expenditure pressures. The market is beginning to reprice returns on AI companies like CapEx, with risk appetite shrinking,In 2018, BTC fell from $19,800 to $3,237, with a maximum drawdown of about 84%.
Buy at the lowest point: Returns about 121% after one year
In 2022, BTC fell from $69,000 to $15,600, with a maximum drawdown of about 77%.
Buy at the lowest point: Returns about 131% after one year
In this round, BTC fell from 124,800 to a minimum of 58,000, with a maximum drawdown of only 53.5%. The drawdown is getting smaller, and the odds at the bottom are likely to be decreasing
If you want to carve a boat to find a sword,
Assuming this round can replicate the rebound from the previous two rounds, buy 58,000
A year later, the price was about $128,000 to $134,000
This is roughly a return to the previous high near $BTC The Federal Reserve didn't raise interest rates, but I shorted BTC near $64,500.
The short position did pay off because I believe there will be a market shift by August.
The four words most likely to be misinterpreted tonight are "maintain rates."
The Fed did keep rates at 3.5%–3.75%, which looks like no rate hike, so risk assets should breathe a sigh of relief.
But the real key is the voting result afterward: 9 votes in favor of maintaining, 3 votes directly calling for a 25 basis point rate hike.
What does that mean?
On the surface, the Fed didn’t continue to step on the brakes, but at the table, three people already think the brakes haven’t been applied hard enough.
The Fed not raising rates is theoretically positive, but after BTC surged near $64,640, it didn’t immediately rally; by the time I opened my position, it had fallen back near $64,500.
That’s exactly why I tried shorting.What caught me most was that $SOL managed to break into the top ranks today, yet its price barely changed.
The spot price is only at $73.97, and in 24 hours, it's just +0.65%. The highs and lows fluctuated between $74.53 and $72.32.
Such a fluctuation shouldn't have such a strong presence.
But its spot trading volume has already reached $114.56M, and the contract is even more exaggerated, surging straight to $1308.09M.
A 11.4x contract/spot transaction ratio doesn't look like the kind of 'everyone slowly buys spot stocks.'
It was more like many people in this position trying out directions, with no one willing to accept the other.
I just finished showering and came out to take a look. Doudou was lying by the keyboard and was even calmer than I was. I was honestly impressed.
Because the most counterintuitive point in this market is right here: the price hasn't formed a strong emotional bullish candlestick, but the contract side is already heating up unnaturally.
The funding rate is only +0.0071%, which isn't outrageous.
This shows that bulls are not in a state where they are squeezed to the point of burning.
But with open interest at 8,429,877 SOL, it shows that the market position is actually quite large, and no one has left.
So I would interpret today's $SOL as a "high participation, low shift" market.
It's not that no one is watching it.
But too many people watched, which ironically disrupted the trend.
I generally don't like to follow this kind of structure.
Honestly, a truly strong coin feels smooth; even if you don't dare to go in, you can still tell it's charging.
$SOL Now I feel like the hype is enough, but the direction hasn't been clearly defined yet.
The easiest thing to do is not to immediately fly one-sided, but to first wash the anxious person back and forth 😅
My attitude is clear: I'm just watching and not chasing.
If spot volume can keep up later, and contracts don't keep playing out the contract themselves, I'd be more willing to take a look.
The market is changing; what works today might be wrong tomorrow $SOL #SOLThree votes favored rate hikes, but the market was still waiting for PCE. The real decision on Bitcoin and Ethereum could be tonight
After the Fed's rate decision in the early morning, many people focused on one outcome at first glance: interest rates remained unchanged.
But what truly deserves attention is not the interest rate itself, but the voting results.
This time, three votes within the Federal Reserve support continued rate hikes, indicating that divisions within the committee on inflation still exist. The market had expected the pace of rate cuts to become clearer this year, but for now, the Fed remains strongly cautious.
In other words, rate cut expectations have not completely disappeared, but the timing may continue to be pushed back.
For risk assets, this is not entirely bearish news.
Because what the market really trades is not "whether there will be a rate cut today," but "whether there will be rate cuts in the future."
So, as everyone saw in the early morning, although Bitcoin and Ethereum showed some volatility, there was no panic selling. This indicates that capital is still willing to remain in the market, waiting for new catalysts.
And that catalyst is the PCE data released tonight.
PCE is one of the most valued inflation indicators by the Federal Reserve.
If tonight's data continues to fall, the market will reinforce expectations for rate cuts, the US dollar index may continue to weaken, and US Treasury yields may also fall.
For the crypto market, this will further improve liquidity expectations.
Biting has the chance to make another push forward, and Ethereum is also expected to continue outperforming the market.
Why do I keep emphasizing ether?
Because the recent flow of institutional funds has already shown the problem.
From ETF inflows and validator exit queues dropping to zero, to traditional financial institutions continuously investing in ETH-related products, funds are steadily concentrating in the Ethereum ecosystem.
Often, Bitcoin is responsible for stabilizing market sentiment, and the ones that truly deliver excess returns are often ETH.
Of course, if PCE rises again tonight, the situation will be completely different.
The market will believe inflation remains stubborn and the Fed will not rush to cut rates in the short term.
At that time, the US dollar may strengthen again, making risk assets more likely to see a round of profit-taking.
This adjustment may not necessarily mean the bull market is over; more likely, it is just a shakeout during the upward trend.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a high-level oscillation range. Until it breaks through key support, I prefer to interpret it as a direction choice for the main force waiting for news, rather than a trend reversal.
The same goes for ether.
As long as it can hold the key recent support, the overall structure remains a bullish consolidation rather than entering a bear cycle.
My way of thinking hasn't changed.
Before major macro data is released, it is not recommended to heavily invest in chasing rallies and there is no need to panic exit due to short-term fluctuations.
Real opportunities often appear after the news has arrived.
Tonight's PCE will most likely determine the trading rhythm of the entire market in the coming days.
If the data is low, the market may reopen upward potential.
If the data is high, the short-term correction may expand, but as long as there is no fundamental change in liquidity, the medium- to long-term logic remains intact.
Therefore, rather than guessing rises and falls, it is better to patiently wait for the data to come out and then follow the market's direction and follow the trend.
Many people always try to predict the market in advance, but those who truly make steady profits mostly wait for market confirmation before acting.
This is the most important lesson in trading. $BTC $ETH $SNDK July went from 57,737 to 64,000—where will August go?
By the end of July, BTC was near $64,000. Over the past month, Bitcoin has had a complete roller coaster ride—at the beginning of the month, it once dropped to $57,737, a 21-month low, then rebounded to $66,930, and ended the month fluctuating around the 64,000 level.
1. What happened in July?
The sharp drop at the beginning of the month follows a clear logical chain: in June, ETF saw a net outflow of $4.5 billion, setting a record high; Strategy broke its promise to "never sell coins," and the market panic index dropped to 11. The most determined flag holders who hoarded coins began to loosen, fundamentally impacting institutional confidence.
But the reversal was just as swift. On July 2, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $221.7 million, ending a ten-day streak of $2.73 billion in outflows. BlackRock IBIT led the way in capital returns, with its price briefly breaking through a five-week high of $66,600. On the macro level, the US June CPI and PPI cooled more than expected, briefly reigniting expectations for policy easing.
Last night's Fed rate decision marked the end of July: 9 votes in favor of keeping rates unchanged, 3 against raising rates—the first time since 2016 that three votes were unanimous. Nominally, no increase, but the simultaneous vote for a rate hike by three FOMC members signals a more hawkish tone than the hike itself. After the announcement, expectations for a rate hike in September soared to 82%.
2. What is the technical aspect about?
BTC is currently fluctuating around 64,000, lacking short-term directional sensing. The above level of 66,600-67,000 is the supply zone left by two false breakouts in July, while the lower level of 63,000-63,500 is the support zone repeatedly tested in July.
Analyst Noname predicts August may test the $50,000 range, considering the current sideways movement "hesitant," and hesitation often leads to a breakout downward. Captain Faibik judged that Bitcoin is still in the accumulation phase, expected to last until mid-August, with a bottom possibly between 54,000 and 55,000. The essence of the difference between the two viewpoints is: is 63,000-64,000 really the bottom?
3. The three core variables of August
First, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has soared to 82%, and the three opposing votes from the July decision are essentially a warning. Second, after oil prices broke through $100, they fell back to around $86, and the direction of the US-Iran conflict directly affects inflation expectations. Third, the CLARITY Act entered a congressional recess, and the lack of regulatory catalysts meant August lacked positive policy stimulus.
4. Operational Strategy
AIX's assessment: There is currently no clear direction, waiting for signal confirmation.
Long position: If BTC pulls back to the 63,000-63,300 range and shows a 15-minute signal of volume shrinkage and stabilization, consider a light position and try going long, stop loss at 62,000, target 66,000-67,000.
Short position: If BTC repeatedly tests the 64,500-65,000 range but fails to break out and shows stagnation signals, you can take a light short position, set a stop loss at 66,000, and target 62,000-63,000.
Middle range (63,500-64,500): Remain unmoved, waiting for direction selection.
July emerged from panic, but the real test in August is how to price the September rate hike expectations after three votes against. No rush, let the market choose its direction first.Same drop, different speed
Put the data together and get a sense of it:
Bitcoin fell 54% — in 268 days
Silver fell 54% — after 169 days
SanDisk (SNDK) fell 55% — after 36 days
SK Hynix fell 53% — after 34 days
Similarly, semiconductors have seen a halved-level pullback, moving seven to eight times faster than crypto and precious metals.
From 268 days to 34 days, the intensity of this round of storage adjustments is truly impressive.Opening OKX's contract interface, aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, there was still some trading volume; the remaining space was almost entirely occupied by contracts for US stocks, gold, and crude oil. This is not an exaggeration, but a stark reality—other crypto projects have become stagnant, not zero, but simply no one is trading anymore. Over the past month, over 30% of capital outflows from the industry have flowed into U.S. stock-related contracts, while the average daily trading volume of altcoins has shrunk to less than 10% of the 2021 peak. I remember in 2021, any new coin could rise by 50%, and now even $SOL $BNB volatility is less than a fraction of S&P 500 futures. What's even more heartbreaking is that OKX has quietly launched a massive amount of US stock spot trading, from Tesla to Nvidia, allowing crypto users to trade traditional assets with $USDT. What does this mean? Money is already quietly moving out of the crypto world. RWA (Real-World Assets) has become the core function of exchanges—moving real-world liquidity on-chain, and OKB is the toll collector on this highway. Concepts like storage and L2 have faded away, and there will be other stories repeatedly traded, but essentially, they are all variants of RWA. I looked at my holdings and saw $OKB rebounded 15% from the June low, while other cryptocurrencies were still struggling in the mud. Instead of fantasizing about the next hundredfold coin, it's better to focus on OKX's xLayer ecosystem, where liquidity will increasingly resemble real US stocks. Stop comforting yourself with phrases like "crypto is dead"—it really is dead, but the ones who died are those who hyped themselves with air coinsMany US stock investors subconsciously think:
The Fed hasn't raised rates = liquidity hasn't tightened further = market bullish = money should have flowed into the stock and crypto markets, but why is it falling instead?
The real reason is:
Currently, the main investment returns in the U.S. market are roughly as follows:
USD Cash/Money Market Funds: Returns around 4%;
Short-term U.S. Treasuries: yield around 4%;
10-year U.S. Treasury bonds: yield around 4.2%-4.5%;
Ordinary bank savings: mostly below 1%;
High-yield savings: about 3.5%-4.5%.
So many institutions' money hasn't disappeared yet, but is just waiting.
They remain in money market funds and short-term government bonds, waiting for two signals to appear:
First, the Fed has truly entered a rate-cutting cycle, causing cash returns to decline;
Second, the stock market has seen more reasonable valuations.
Once short-term bond yields decline, for example from around 4% to around 2%, a large amount of capital may seek returns again, which is usually when tech stocks and the crypto market are more likely to get started. $BTC Recently, the crypto market has faced a rather complex situation. On one hand, the Federal Reserve has sent hawkish signals, prompting market expectations for rate cuts to readjust; On the other hand, the situation in the Middle East is heating up, with crude oil prices rising rapidly and traditional safe-haven assets like gold attracting capital attention. The simultaneous presence of these two factors has significantly cooled sentiment across the risk market. In the US stock market, tech stocks pulled back, the Nasdaq came under pressure, and the Dow fell sharply. BTC was also affected, briefly falling back to around $63,000, and market panic flared up again. Interestingly, BTC's performance this time did not experience the sharp panic drops seen in previous years. The reason is that the current market structure is different from before. One of the biggest factors affecting BTC in the past was retail investor sentiment. But now, ETF funds and institutional allocations are gradually becoming new market forces. Recently, the flow of funds from US spot Bitcoin ETFs has improved, with signs of capital returning for several consecutive days. Although there is still a gap before large-scale capital inflows, at least it shows that institutions have not completely left the market. At the same time, regulatory direction has also become a key focus of market attention. Although the CLARITY Act has recently experienced some setbacks and related provisions remain controversial, the overall direction of the U.S. push to clarify the crypto regulatory framework has not changed. For institutions, the most important thing is not short-term price fluctuations, but whether crypto assets can enter a more compliant development phase in the coming years. However, the biggest variable in the current market remains the macro environment. The escalation of the Middle East conflict has driven up oil prices$SOL ：
"⚡ SOL Analysis: Price is correcting in the $73-75 range.
High-performance public chains face fierce competition, but ecosystem activity remains. Morgan Stanley launches Solana-related products, maintaining a long-standing narrative. In the short term, we need to wait for Bitcoin to clarify its direction. #Solana”#SpaceX获$1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge, sparking controversy between two camps—the biggest divide online! Unpacking SpaceX's epic divergence: the truth behind orders landing and the evaporation of a hundred-billion yuan market value
99% of people online can't understand this epic divergence:
Having just secured a $1.6 billion US defense mega order and an official confirmed order, the stock price not only failed to rise but actually plunged sharply.
Retail investors were confused: Why did the good news crash after being realized?
Institutions know very well: this is not good news, but the ultimate signal that SpaceX's valuation logic has completely peaked.
The current market is completely torn into two opposing camps, which is also the most controversial and deeply divided target on Wall Street today.
Today, the internet exclusively analyzes: why "top-tier military orders" have instead triggered a market value of hundreds of billions to trample and flee.
1. Let's start with the market: epic divergence, textbook-level 'buying expectations, selling facts'
Latest major positive developments:
SpaceX successfully secured a $1.6 billion US defense contract, covering space monitoring, military Starlink networking, and space AI computing services. It is a national-level rigid long-term order with highly certain cash flow.
Normal logic: Urgent military industry demand + long-term national team backing the market, stock price should surge violently.
Actual market situation: Good news has landed and the market is dumped, funds flee wildly, and valuations continue to fall in shadow.
This is not a technical correction, but a complete reversal in market pricing logic.
Retail investors look at "order size," while institutions look at "valuation bubbles and cash-out ability."
2. Bullish logic (firmly bullish: ultimate bottom-up, fall out of the golden pit)
The core support for the vast majority of optimistic funds across the internet is solid and flawless:
1. US military 1.6B order = permanent national-level endorsement
This is not a commercial retail order, but a rigid purchase by the U.S. military.
This means: SpaceX has officially become a core defense infrastructure, with permanent government backing, and no risk of business failures or lost orders.
2. Starlink military deployment opens up sustainable cash flow
Civil Starlink is fiercely competitive and profits are unstable;
Military Starlink offers monopolistic demand, high gross margins, long-term contract renewals, and unlimited scalability.
The signing of this contract marks SpaceX's upgrade from a "commercial space company" to a national-level military technology giant, with its underlying business model completely solidified.
3. Unique track barriers worldwide
The world's only company capable of achieving low-cost, high-frequency rocket launches, space networking, and integrated space computing power.
The triple tracks of aerospace + AI computing power + military industry overlap with extremely high long-term growth ceilings.
Bull summary: short-term sentiment sells down, long-term orders lock in value, and major drops are all mistaken sell-offs and shakeouts.
3. The core logic of the bear market's sell-off (the deepest truth on the internet, 90% of people can't understand the crash)
This is the real internal cause of this round of crashes, and the ultimate reason institutions are dumping shares and fleeing wildly despite good news:
1. Severe valuation overdraft: A price-to-earnings ratio of 95 times is completely insufficient to support earnings
SpaceX's current terrifying valuation:
Its peak listing valuation was 1.77 trillion yuan, corresponding to a 2025 operating P/E ratio close to 95 times.
The average P/E ratio of leading U.S. military and tech stocks is only 20-30 times.
The market has already priced in all the growth for the next 10 years ahead of schedule.
160 million yuan in orders may seem huge, but for a trillion-yuan market cap giant, it's completely impossible to digest the overdrawn bubble.
Positive news landing = growth expectations have completely peaked; without a higher story to tell, funds can only cash out and exit.
2. Core narrative collapse: Starship technology delayed, growth logic broken
The core trump card supporting SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation—Starship's complete failure and postponement.
Recently, Starship's test flight had four engine failures before launch and was abruptly halted, and key technology validation after launch was completely disastrous.
All stories of space migration, ultra-low-cost launches, and massive expansion of space AI computing power in the market are all suspended.
Technology implementation falls short of expectations, and trillion-yuan valuations lose their only growth support.
3. Frenzied financing triggers a crisis of trust in funds
With tens of billions in cash in hand, the IPO raised a huge amount of funds, and then immediately announced a $20 billion super bond issuance.
Core market question: With hundreds of billions in cash on hand and a frenzy of borrowing, just how big is the hidden financial black hole?
Capital directly judged: the company burns cash far faster than its revenue, and profitability is far off.
4. Unlocking pressure is overwhelming, internal funds are cashing out frantically
After listing, massive tokens were unlocked, and original shareholders and early institutions had almost zero costs.
Good news landing = the best window to cash out
All internal funds took advantage of the emotional heat of U.S. military orders, selling at any cost, resulting in a stampede decline.
5. The AI computing power narrative has completely failed
Previously, the market had given SpaceX a high valuation, marking a new track in the 'space AI computing power' strategy.
However, with the US AI computing power sector collectively retreating, funds no longer paying for long-term sci-fi narratives, and the high-growth bubble has been directly burst.
Bear summary: All positive news is just a surviving sentiment, all forward stories are disproven, and valuation reversal is the only outcome. Two questions come up constantly from people new to THORChain. Do you need $RUNE to swap? And isn't it just a governance token? The answer to both is no, and understanding why tells you everything about how the protocol actually works. You don't need $RUNE to swap. You send $BTC , you receive $ETH , and $RUNE never touches your wallet. What's happening underneath is that every pool on THORChain is paired with $RUNE, so the protocol routes your swap through it automatically. It's the plumbing, no$INX Is there any potential for demon coins! #可以OKX钱包链上交易.
Answer: Yes
The biggest issue is: prices are rising, but spot, alpha, and contract turnover are cooling rapidly. This is more like a low-volume rebound under a thin market opening, not the main rally driven by new capital.
There are missed judgments in the historical path
INX rose from 0.010502 to 0.029798, an increase of about 183.7%; In just seven days, it pulled back 72% from its peak, and is currently still below its historical high of about 73.5%.
The original filtering rule required "first rising 200%, then pullback 50%" to count as a waterfall, so INX lost 16.3 percentage points and did not trigger mechanical exclusion. But structurally, it has already gone through a typical spike and chip breakup, so it cannot be called a "clean historical path."
Favorable conditions
The circulating market value is about 15.71 million U, making it easy for capital to drive the market. It has only risen about 25.8% from the June low, indicating that the current cycle is not yet overheated. The Alpha Index has a high weighting and price flexibility. Low funding rates and ADLs, and contracts have not yet become extremely leveraged. The price has already reached the 7-day and 30-day VWAP levels.
Main issues
Since the June low, the path VWAP is about 0.008113U, currently below it, and historical turnover has not yet fully uneven. The market account long-short ratio is 3.18, and the large player account ratio is 2.68, indicating that long accounts are clearly crowded. The large players' position-to-position ratio was only 1.107, with no forced short squeeze structure of "a few heavily held long positions versus a large number of short positions." The sell/buy orders for Alpha and the contract 0.5% range are 2.50 and 3.82, respectively, with heavy selling pressure above. The circulation rate is only 19.94%, FDV to market cap is about 5 times, and the number of holders is only 1215. Official disclosure shows that the team's 20% stake is locked until October 2026, and Patron's shares still have multiple ownership arrangements; Sonar shares are locked for one year but support can be conditionally unlocked early, so supply risks cannot be ignored.
$inx $BTC $ETH 🌍 The macro situation is in turmoil! Wash's dovish vs. Trump battle—whose market is heeding?
I just saw a blogger say that Wash's remarks are already dovish, and expectations for rate cuts are rising, which is positive for risk assets (including crypto). But on the other hand, Trump continues to take action against Iran, and it does not appear to be a simple "retaliatory strike," with the likelihood of war escalation far greater than a ceasefire.
This is quite awkward: the Fed's dovish stance (expected to ease liquidity) + Middle East wars (rising risk aversion), these two pieces of news are fighting, with both bulls and bears having reasons, while the market doesn't know which side to follow.
My personal judgment: short-term risk aversion will prevail. Why? Because rate cuts are "something to take slowly," while war is "something happening right now." The market is always more responsive to immediate threats.
Funds flow from risk assets (stocks, knockoffs) to safe-haven assets (gold, BTC). BTC has recently stabilized above $63,000, which may not be a coincidence—smart money is positioning ahead to hedge risks.
📊 My approach:
1️⃣ Short-term contract orders closed first: In this kind of macro tug-of-war market, the probability of both bulls and bears exploding is high, so it's not a good bet
2️⃣ Spot BTC continues to hold: BTC's safe-haven attributes are strengthening, with long-term positions holding steady
3️⃣ US stock tokens (MU, SNDK, etc.) are not being increased for now: semiconductors are linked with US tech stocks, and the escalation of the war is negative for tech stocks
4️⃣ Place a buy order for BTC at $62,500: If panic sells to this level, I'll take a bit
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight $BTC $ETH Litecoin and Dogecoin hashrate move together at about 0.95 correlation, because one rig already secures both. Soqucoin joins the same hash with nothing new to buy. The founding miners are being decided now, and the chain keeps that record forever.#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #SpaceX1.6BDeal #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？
Last night after the US stock market closed, Microsoft and Meta released their earnings reports back-to-back. These two core companies in the AI race received drastically different market reactions—Microsoft's stock rose over 7% after hours, while Meta's plunged more than 10% at one point. How did the same AI story end up with two very different scripts?
On Microsoft's side, it's all hard numbers.
Azure cloud business grew 43% year-over-year, exceeding the market expectation of 39.98%, marking the fastest growth since early 2022. For the entire fiscal year 2026, Azure's annual revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time. Microsoft 365 Copilot paid users increased from 20 million to 30 million in the first quarter, beating analysts' expectations of 26.9 million. More importantly, Microsoft lowered its fiscal 2027 capital expenditure forecast from 190 billion to 175 billion—previously, the market feared AI spending would be endless, but Microsoft is basically saying, "We're investing, but we know what we're doing."
On Meta's side, the numbers aren't as good.
Revenue was 60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. But net profit was 15.8 billion, down 14% year-over-year. EPS was $6.18, while the market expected $7.22. What really unsettled the market was free cash flow dropping to only $784 million, a 91% year-over-year plunge, the lowest in nearly four years. The Q3 revenue guidance midpoint is 62.5 billion, below analysts' expectation of 63.2 billion. Capital expenditure lower bound was also raised.
Why did the market react so differently?
A CNBC report put it bluntly—the analysts on Microsoft's call were saying "congratulations," while on Meta's call they were asking, "do we just need to be a bit more patient?" The essence is this: Microsoft's AI investments are already showing real returns, with Azure accelerating, Copilot scaling, and cloud orders piling up; Meta has burned hundreds of billions on AI, but its main revenue is still advertising, and new businesses haven't scaled yet.
My own thoughts.
It's not that Meta is failing; Zuckerberg's path is inherently different from Nadella's—Microsoft has Azure as an existing monetization channel, so AI investment flows directly into the cloud; Meta has to build enterprise-level business from scratch, so the cycle is naturally longer. But the market has no patience for "wait a bit longer," especially after Google Cloud surged 82% last week, investors' tolerance for "the story" is getting lower and lower.
The AI race has entered the second half—whoever turns investment into revenue first wins. So far, Microsoft is ahead. #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 #英伟达、谷歌为AI数据中心债务提供巨额担保
July 30 U.S. Stock Market Analysis
On July 29 Eastern Time, U.S. stocks faced a "Black Wednesday," with all three major indexes plunging sharply at the close. The Dow dropped 1,153 points, down 2.19%, closing at 51,594.14, marking the largest single-day drop in 15 months; the Nasdaq fell 1.74% to 24,442.94, marking its sixth consecutive day of losses; the S&P 500 declined 1.52% to 7,316.15.
The decline was mainly driven by three factors: Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, there were a rare three dissenting votes for a rate hike, the first since 2016. Chair Powell expressed concerns about inflation and said the Fed would "not hesitate to act" if necessary; the Middle East situation sharply deteriorated, with Trump warning of a "severe strike" on Iran, and Brent crude oil surged nearly 8%; faith in AI was questioned, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 5.33%. Nvidia fell over 3.5%, and Micron Technology plummeted nearly 10%. The Nasdaq 100 has dropped over 11% from its peak, entering a correction territory.The demonic currency first appeared!! $ON #btw
Why does ON have more super token potential than BTW?
Although ON has pulled back about 29% from the 0.3688 high, which is much more volatile than BTW, its token structure is more complete:
ON spot trading is about eight times the BTW, so it's not just the contract pulling up. ON contract trading was also about eight times that of BTW, indicating significantly larger capital capacity. ON circulation rate is 70%, and FDV is only about 43% higher than market capitalization; By the way, the circulation rate is only 26%, which is a heavy supply burden. ON's market-wide long-short ratio is only 0.75, with short accounts making up the majority; large players still hold about 54% of positions slightly long, forming a short squeeze structure of "large players are bullish, ordinary accounts are bearish." During the ON-retracement period, the 4-hour OI dropped by 21%, indicating a real deleveraging cycle; By the way, the 4-hour OI actually increased by 20%, and it hasn't been thoroughly cleaned yet. ON's active buy-sell ratio in the past hour was 1.10, with the rebound driven by active buying; BTW was only 0.91, relying more on passive support.The biggest controversy on the entire internet! Unveiling SpaceX's epic divergence: orders landed, billions in market value evaporated#SpaceX secures $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunges and sparks controversy $BTC
99% of people online can't understand this epic divergence:
Having just secured a $1.6 billion US defense mega order and an official confirmed order, the stock price not only failed to rise but actually plunged sharply.
Retail investors were confused: Why did the good news crash after being realized?
Institutions know very well: this is not good news, but the ultimate signal that SpaceX's valuation logic has completely peaked.
The current market is completely torn into two opposing camps, which is also the most controversial and deeply divided target on Wall Street today.
Today, the internet exclusively analyzes: why "top-tier military orders" have instead triggered a market value of hundreds of billions to trample and flee.
1. Let's start with the market: epic divergence, textbook-level 'buying expectations, selling facts'
Latest major positive developments:
SpaceX successfully secured a $1.6 billion US defense contract, covering space monitoring, military Starlink networking, and space AI computing services. It is a national-level rigid long-term order with highly certain cash flow.
Normal logic: Urgent military industry demand + long-term national team backing the market, stock price should surge violently.
Actual market situation: Good news has landed and the market is dumped, funds flee wildly, and valuations continue to fall in shadow.
This is not a technical correction, but a complete reversal in market pricing logic.
Retail investors look at "order size," while institutions look at "valuation bubbles and cash-out ability."
2. Bullish logic (firmly bullish: ultimate bottom-up, fall out of the golden pit)
The core support for the vast majority of optimistic funds across the internet is solid and flawless:
1. US military 1.6B order = permanent national-level endorsement
This is not a commercial retail order, but a rigid purchase by the U.S. military.
This means: SpaceX has officially become a core defense infrastructure, with permanent government backing, and no risk of business failures or lost orders.
2. Starlink military deployment opens up sustainable cash flow
Civil Starlink is fiercely competitive and profits are unstable;
Military Starlink offers monopolistic demand, high gross margins, long-term contract renewals, and unlimited scalability.
The signing of this contract marks SpaceX's upgrade from a "commercial space company" to a national-level military technology giant, with its underlying business model completely solidified.
3. Unique track barriers worldwide
The world's only company capable of achieving low-cost, high-frequency rocket launches, space networking, and integrated space computing power.
The triple tracks of aerospace + AI computing power + military industry overlap with extremely high long-term growth ceilings.
Bull summary: short-term sentiment sells down, long-term orders lock in value, and major drops are all mistaken sell-offs and shakeouts.
3. The core logic of the bear market's sell-off (the deepest truth on the internet, 90% of people can't understand the crash)
This is the real internal cause of this round of crashes, and the ultimate reason institutions are dumping shares and fleeing wildly despite good news:
1. Severe valuation overdraft: A price-to-earnings ratio of 95 times is completely insufficient to support earnings
SpaceX's current terrifying valuation:
Its peak listing valuation was 1.77 trillion yuan, corresponding to a 2025 operating P/E ratio close to 95 times.
The average P/E ratio of leading U.S. military and tech stocks is only 20-30 times.
The market has already priced in all the growth for the next 10 years ahead of schedule.
160 million yuan in orders may seem huge, but for a trillion-yuan market cap giant, it's completely impossible to digest the overdrawn bubble.
Positive news landing = growth expectations have completely peaked; without a higher story to tell, funds can only cash out and exit.
2. Core narrative collapse: Starship technology delayed, growth logic broken
The core trump card supporting SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation—Starship's complete failure and postponement.
Recently, Starship's test flight had four engine failures before launch and was abruptly halted, and key technology validation after launch was completely disastrous.
All stories of space migration, ultra-low-cost launches, and massive expansion of space AI computing power in the market are all suspended.
Technology implementation falls short of expectations, and trillion-yuan valuations lose their only growth support.
3. Frenzied financing triggers a crisis of trust in funds
With tens of billions in cash in hand, the IPO raised a huge amount of funds, and then immediately announced a $20 billion super bond issuance.
Core market question: With hundreds of billions in cash on hand and a frenzy of borrowing, just how big is the hidden financial black hole?
Capital directly judged: the company burns cash far faster than its revenue, and profitability is far off.
4. Unlocking pressure is overwhelming, internal funds are cashing out frantically
After listing, massive tokens were unlocked, and original shareholders and early institutions had almost zero costs.
Good news landing = the best window to cash out
All internal funds took advantage of the emotional heat of U.S. military orders, selling at any cost, resulting in a stampede decline.
5. The AI computing power narrative has completely failed
Previously, the market had given SpaceX a high valuation, marking a new track in the 'space AI computing power' strategy.
However, with the US AI computing power sector collectively retreating, funds no longer paying for long-term sci-fi narratives, and the high-growth bubble has been directly burst.
Bear summary: All positive news is just a surviving sentiment, all forward stories are disproven, and valuation reversal is the only outcome. Spending less actually leads to a sharp increase! Microsoft cuts ineffective expenses, US stock funds flood into #微软逆势下调资本开支, and the stock rose 8.5% after hours. Recently, $GOOGL was focused on spending heavily on computing power and constantly raising its budget, spending more money but not recovering profits. Cash flow was drained, and the stock price plummeted. Now, US stock investors are panicking, most afraid of tech companies endlessly burning AI money and seeing no end in sight of profitability. Microsoft directly cut next year's total spending by $15 billion this time, but after hours, it surged 8.5% in one go. The reason is very simple: 1. No more wasting money recklessly. During the AI boom a couple of years ago, companies frantically stockpiled chips and built data centers, leaving many devices idle and unused, piling up at a loss. $MSFT Now, cutting useless infrastructure and investing only in computing power projects with customer orders that can truly make money, spending money carefully and carefully will immediately boost profits. Everyone thinks the company is running steadily. 2. AI hasn't stopped developing, just increasing profit-making efficiency. It's not about giving up on AI; sales of its own cloud services and AI office assistants have been rising, showing strong monetization capabilities; While steadily increasing AI revenue while strictly controlling ineffective expenses, cash flow is firmly maintained, perfectly matching the most popular market model right now. 3. In a high interest rate environment, funds prefer stable stocks. The Fed has maintained high interest rates, so people dare not touch stocks that only burn cash and lack stable returns. Instead, everyone is rushing to buy leading companies with healthy cash flow and cost control. Microsoft perfectly meets all these requirements, with massive funds entering and grouping together.