Orbit Post Sitemap
$BTC If it doesn't break below 62,000, it's still bullish
Support below is at 62,200-62,000
Resistance is near 64,000 above
On the news side
Inflation data cooled, but risk appetite remained limited
On August 12, the US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year (previous 3.5%) and core CPI 2.5% year-on-year (the smallest increase since February), with PPI month-on-month flat below the expected 0.2%. After inflation cooled, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September eased significantly—the probability of keeping rates unchanged rose to 67.6%.
However, it should be noted that the positive news has not translated into a broad rebound in risk appetite. Xangle's research report points out that although inflation has slowed, uncertainty about the interest rate path remains, and buying is relatively concentrated in mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with no significant capital rotation. The crypto market is currently in a dual environment intertwined with "liquidity expectations" and "geopolitical risks."
Regulatory aspect: SEC meeting suddenly canceled
The SEC suddenly canceled the crypto regulatory rules meeting scheduled for last Friday, and the planned advancement of the Reg Crypto proposal and innovation exemption arrangements may be related to the previously postponed CLARITY Act. Regulatory uncertainty adds short-term variables.
Institutional movements are cautious
10x Research pointed out that stablecoins continue to flow out of the crypto market, with Strategy, once one of the most stable buyers, being a seller for four consecutive weeks. However, there are also positive signals—Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive announced a Bitcoin increase, managing assets totaling $1 billion.
Geopolitics: Oil prices fall but risks remain
WTI crude fell from around $100 per barrel at the start of the month to the $81 range, reducing inflationary pressures. However, tensions in the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz persist, and risk premiums such as Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries remain.
Currently, the market is in a "weak equilibrium" state—cooling inflation brings a breather, with narrow fluctuations in the $62,000-$66,000 range, with high-selling and low-spec operations within the range
The above personal views are for reference only
#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? #CLARITY表决待定, SEC rules remain unimplemented #加密估值转向收入, how should BTC be priced? 韩国股市突然有了AI核心资产，$000660.KS 和 $005930.KS 的分工越来越清楚
韩股这条线最近不能忽略。AI行情走到现在，美股核心资产估值已经不便宜，资金自然会寻找全球供应链里的第二层、第三层机会。韩国市场最特殊的地方在于，它不是泛泛地蹭AI，而是真有两个核心名字摆在台面上：$000660.KS 和 $005930.KS。
$000660.KS 的故事比较锋利。SK海力士在HBM上的领先，让它成为英伟达AI工厂路线图里绕不开的供应商。AI芯片不是只有GPU，HBM几乎是性能瓶颈的一部分。你算力再强，内存带宽跟不上，系统效率就会被卡住。所以海力士被市场看成AI算力扩张的直接受益者，这不是简单情绪，而是供应链地位决定的。
$005930.KS 的故事更复杂。三星有存储，有手机，有代工，有封装，有面板和消费电子。复杂意味着纯度不如海力士，但也意味着修复空间更宽。过去市场对三星不满，主要是HBM节奏、代工竞争和业务复杂度拖累估值。但如果三星在HBM客户验证、先进封装、存储价格和AI合作上逐步改善，它的反弹会更像综合科技巨头的估值修复，而不是单一存储票的弹性。
所以韩股AI链不能一锅炖。$000660.KS 像高纯度HBM资产，适合讲AI服务器瓶颈；$005930.KS 像低预期综合科技巨头，适合讲修复和补涨。一个靠领先，一个靠改善。市场在不同阶段会偏好不同东西。AI情绪最热的时候，资金追锋利；行情扩散时，资金会找体量和落后修复。
但韩国市场也有自己的风险。外资流向、韩元汇率、全球科技股波动、美国对芯片出口和供应链政策，都会影响它。韩股不是简单“便宜版美股AI”，它有更高的周期弹性，也有更强的外部变量。
进入8月17日这一周，如果美股AI继续震荡，韩国存储链反而会成为资金观察的方向。因为AI行情如果从GPU扩散到内存，韩国不是边缘市场，而是核心供给地。过去大家买AI只盯 $NVDA ，现在更成熟的资金会问：谁给 $NVDA 提供最关键的内存？这个问题一出现，韩股就有流量了。 H나 유사 신규 코인군의 가격 흐름은 결국 파생포지션의 연료로 소비될 가능성이 크다 과도한 숏 포지션이 쌓인 코인일수록, 급등의 본질은 방향성 신호가 아니라 청산 연쇄일 수 있다는 점을 당신은 확인했는가? 원문 게시물이 지적하는 핵심은 두 가지다. 첫째, 특정 코인(H로 지칭)이 차기 상승 주도주가 될 것이라는 기대. 둘째, 유사 테마의 모방 코인들은 급등 이후 고점에서 숏을 유도하는 패턴을 반복한다는 관찰이다. 이는 단순한 가격 예측이 아니라, 시장 참여자들의 포지션 행동이 가격에 선행하거나 왜곡하는 구조를 읽어야 한다는 뜻이다. 파생상품 시장의 관점에서 이 패턴은 명확한 논리로 해석된다. 급등 과정에서 펀딩비가 과열되면 신규 매수 세력의 롱 포지션 유지 비용이 커지고, 이때 매도 압력이 가해지면 가격 하락보다 숏 청산이 먼저 발생한다. 즉, 상승 초기에는 숏 스퀴즈가 상승을 가속화하고, 이후 롱 포지션의 펀딩비 부담이 정점에 달하면 급락의 원인이 된다. 현재 시장은 이 사이클의 SanDisk pulled from 1190 to 1775, a two-week rebound close to 50%, with the core catalyst being Investor Day on August 13.
Investor Day Boom, valuation logic shifting
Management has rolled out a long-term financial model: mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth from FY2028 to FY2030, non-GAAP gross margin around 80%, operating margin close to 75%, and 100% excess cash return to shareholders after investment. If memory chip companies dare to claim an 80% gross margin, the market will directly reprice it.
$93.9 billion long-term agreements lock in guaranteed income
The company has signed long-term NBM supply agreements with eight data center customers, with a total contract value of approximately $93.9 billion and an average term exceeding four years. This covers over 50% of capacity in fiscal year 2027 and about two-thirds capacity in fiscal year 2028. This means that even if NAND spot prices pull back, a significant portion of revenue and profit remains protected. Storage companies have gained demand visibility spanning several years for the first time.
Institutions collectively raised their target prices
JPMorgan upgraded its rating from Neutral to Overweight, with a target price of $2,250. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating with a target price of $2,200. UBS raised its target price to $1,750, with Mizuho raised to $1,900. The market consensus target price is around $2,000.
AI inference opens up new demand ceilings
AI model inference generates large amounts of KV cache data, driving some workloads from high-cost DRAM to NAND. SanDisk positions SSDs as the token battery for AI inference, and by 2026, AI inference will push enterprise-grade SSDs to become the largest downstream application market for NAND. On the supply side, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won said that even if production capacity doubles over the next five years, demand may still not be met.
#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
Market data: On August 13, Investor Day, SanDisk surged over 13% to close at $1528, then rose another 7.39% on August 14 to close at $1641, with a turnover of $33.9 billion, topping US stocks for the first time. In two weeks, it rebounded from 1000 to 1775, a rebound of over 70%.
The essence of this rally is that the market is shifting SanDisk's valuation framework. Previously, we looked at low valuations at the peak of the NAND cycle; now, we look at structural demand in the AI inference era + visibility of long-term protocol lock-in + shareholder return commitments. With these three logics stacked together, the ceiling has been redefined $BTC $ETH $OKB
All of the above analyses are time-sensitive. You must set stop-loss orders for your orders. Good luck to you.One-third of $MU's business is mobile consumer storage, with a gross margin exceeding 87%.
Some time ago, Apple attempted to purchase Chinese chips but was unsurprisingly rejected by the White House.
This also includes $SNDK, as both Changxin and Changcun are eyeing the market closely. However, since they are on the U.S. defense list, this weakens the expectation of supply substitution from China, which is a good thing for the bargaining power of the entire storage industry.#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 各位，BTC现在的状态有点像暴风雨前的宁静。
10xResearch最新报告说得很直白，比特币交易量明显萎缩，价格波动区间收窄到数月低位，隐含波动率也趴在地板上。与此同时，BTC ETF资金流入偏弱，稳定币资金还在持续流出加密市场。现货和杠杆两端都在缩量，市场确实缺乏方向。
ETH这边反而有故事可讲。DWF Labs的数据显示，ETH现货ETF自6月以来相对表现优于BTC，7月按基金规模计算的净流入比例约为BTC的9.4倍。资金确实在往ETH这边倾斜。
但机构也不是完全撤出BTC。瑞银二季度大幅增持了IBIT看涨期权，同时小幅增加了IBIT现货持仓。这说明机构对BTC的态度不是看空，而是在等一个更明确的方向出现，然后用期权工具来参与。
米哥的看法很简单，BTC的低波动不会永远持续下去，等宏观环境给出新的方向，波动率会重新扩张。ETH的相对强势是事实，但它不一定意味着BTC不行了，更可能说明市场在阶段性地寻找新的交易逻辑。$BTC $ETH $BEAT
各位怎么看接下来的方向，是BTC先动还是ETH继续领跑，祝大家新的一周交易顺利。#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
I'm Medium-term Intelligence Bro. BTC trading volume has shrunk to its lowest level since 2019, and ETFs have brief net outflows—it looks scary, but I'm firmly optimistic about a medium-term uptrend. Shrinking volume isn't a sign of a crash, it's the end of the compression—sellers are fatigued, profit supply is near the bear bottom, miners are exiting selling pressure, and selling pressure on all three stocks is cooling off.
There's no need to panic about ETFs: from August 3 to 7, 853 million yuan was raised in five days; IBIT absorbed 690 million yuan in a single week, accounting for 80%. On the 11th, IBIT alone absorbed another 50.2 million yuan. The money hasn't left but is being pushed into top wrappers, representing maturity, not retreat. Rate hike expectations were crushed by weak nonfarm payrolls, the Clarity Act entered a nationwide vote, and the dual anchors of macro + regulation are hammering the bottom.
My judgment: 62K-65K is the institutional cost zone; after volume shrinking and grinding, the must-choose direction is the most likely to rise than to go down. Medium-term bottom position is locked; a pullback to 62K only increases without decreases, and if volume rises to 67,500, the second step is confirmed. Target is 7 first. This position is not an escape point but a mounting point.
$BTC
$ETH 惊！闪迪狂飙后惊现“鳄鱼张嘴”，巨鲸空头已埋伏！1小时级别变盘在即？
别人恐惧我贪婪，但巨鲸贪婪时，我恐惧。
高级分析师视角：技术面与资金面的背离
兄弟们，闪迪这波从底部反弹超70%，日线级别确实多头结构未破。但1小时图量价已现疲态——价格高位横盘，MACD出现顶背离迹象，RSI虽在高位但钝化严重。更关键的是，SNDK已是加密市场持仓规模最大的股票类永续品种。
清算地图显示上方多头清算密集，而巨鲸持仓更耐人寻味：前十地址空头占优，且有聪明钱在1553美元附近开了10倍空单，浮盈中。结合闪迪放出939亿长期协议与激进财务目标的利好出尽嫌疑，这里追多性价比极低。
操作思路：高空为主，低多为辅
主策略（空）：若1小时收线跌破1650，轻仓追空，目标1610（筹码密集区）。
次策略（多）：除非放量突破且站稳1700并伴随巨鲸空头爆仓，否则不追多。回踩1600不破可小仓位试多，做反弹。
最后问一句：你这波是选择跟巨鲸“做空”，还是赌趋势“突破”？评论区见！#标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？ $SNDK #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? There's an interesting contradiction in the crypto market right now: prices haven't crashed, and sentiment isn't panic, but money is clearly running low. As of August 17 Beijing time, $BTC was still fluctuating around $63,200. The biggest change in recent weeks wasn't the price change, but thinning volume, continued compression of volatility, and a growing lack of follower buying after breakouts. In early August, Deribit's BTC DVOL dropped to around 35, and DWF Labs data shows BTC's implied volatility ranking is near a 52-week low. Low volatility itself doesn't mean risk has disappeared; it more suggests the market is waiting for new pricing variables. That's why I believe the real focus next isn't just guessing whether the next $BTC candlestick will go up or down, but whether the next batch of incremental funds will still prioritize buying $BTC. If they don't buy, where will they go? The problem with $BTC is not that no one is bullish, but the lack of sustained buying interest. ETFs remain the most important capital line to watch $BTC. In the first week of August, there was actually a clear resurgence of US spot BTC ETFs, totaling about $754 million, indicating institutional funds have not completely exited. But recently, the market has resumed discussions about cooling ETF demand, because even with phased inflows, prices still do not show the full positive feedback of "ETF buying→ spot breakouts→ leveraged chases." More noteworthy#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
BTC has recently been stuck at the 64,000–65,000 grinding level, with spot 24-hour trading volume shrinking 10%–16% week-on-week—a typical case of 'price flat, volume shrinking.' On the other hand, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive days from August 3 to August 7, totaling about $854 million—the strongest week since mid-April, with IBIT alone taking 81%. Money is flowing in and volume shrinking, indicating it's not retail investors rushing in, but institutions quietly buying in under low liquidity.
• Since 2026, BTC ETFs have still accumulated net outflows of about $4.4 billion, with $850 million just to fill the gap from the Q2 retreat;
• Inflows are highly concentrated in IBIT/FBTC, with small and mid-cap ETFs not following, resulting in insufficient breadth;
• Fear and greed index stuck at 25–30, "extremely fearful"; retail investors have not returned, trading volume is the second lowest since October 2024;
• From 8/10, there was another single-day net outflow, and buying continuity remains to be verified.
(1) Whether IBIT can see positive inflows for 10 consecutive days (single-day > $100 million);
(2) BTC stabilized at 65,500 on increased volume, rather than hitting a wall with shrinking volume;
(3) Macro — Rate cut expectations in September + CLARITY bill vote in September, determining whether institutions dare to upgrade "tactical dip buying" to "strategic add-on."
ETF buying is a "bottom-level recovery," not a "trend-level reversal." Before trading volume increases, every upper shadow above 65,000 is a tug-of-war of trapped positions + institutions picking up bargains. Retail investors are now not competing on courage, but on ETF renewal capability.In January 2025, Bitcoin broke through 109588, marking the end of the phase bull market and falling until bottoming out in April
During the same period, Ethereum fell from 4100 to a staggering 1385
From the current perspective, you should clear your positions promptly before January
But in real conditions, selling is a very difficult event—harder than bottom-fishing in a bear market.
Let's look at what happened at that time
Institutions unanimously expect $200,000: Bernstein, Standard Chartered, ARK, and Deutsche Bank have released reports almost simultaneously, setting a target price of $200,000 for Bitcoin in 2025, citing triple drivers such as pension fund entry, deepening institutional allocation, and favorable policies
Trump's policies have only just begun: the market generally believes that taking office is just the beginning, with a series of policy dividends such as the stablecoin bill, the introduction of 401k pension funds, and the Bitcoin strategic reserve, making the narrative far from being realized.
ETF funds continue to flow in: for the entire month of January, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.3 billion, while BlackRock alone saw $3.2 billion in inflows, indicating a steady stream of institutional buying
The four-year cycle model says the top is still early. : The halving is in April 2024. According to historical patterns, the top is 12–18 months after the halving, that is, from mid to the end of 2025, with January only being the ninth month. According to this model, at that time it was not just a top but was halfway up the mountain
These views weren't made up afterward; they were publicly available information you could see every day at the time. When you're in the midst of them, you naturally feel the bull market is still early, and now it's only halfway up, making it hard to actively think the market is ending.
This is the first hurdle: the whole world is full of good news, and there's no reason to sell
More importantly, the mainstream interpretation of the January decline at the time was "reversing the car to catch the driver" and deleveraging to lighten the car and pave the way for a rise
Because every bull market main upward wave goes through two or three sideways consolidations, and each consolidation is considered bearish. In reality, the price is just a temporary adjustment, but after many times, it creates a wolf effect. When the real bear market declines, people think it's a correction, which creates a kind of mindset.
This is the second hurdle: ignoring risk, all declines are an ingrained belief in shakeouts
We all know that the bear market decline before April 2025 was due to Trump's tariff policies
However, at the beginning of 2025, almost no one regarded tariffs as a core variable accelerating the bear market
It wasn't until February 2025, when the market saw its first large-scale crash and crashed, that the market truly began to take it seriously; By April, when global reciprocal tariffs were fully implemented, Bitcoin bottomed out, and during the same period, altcoins fell for a full four months, even dropping as much as 80%.
This is the third hurdle. You can't know the real bad news in a bear market, but it will definitely appear
So in a bull market, relying on so-called news and analysis is extremely difficult. When it's time to sell, the whole world is good news. By the time bad news comes, the bear market is already halfway over, and selling at that point will be even harder, since everyone loses and dislikes it
So don't spend too much energy on external factors like narrative and news aspects
What's truly useful is paying attention to the chip structure, which brings us back to our old viewpoint
The fundamental reason for the end of a bull market is the drying up of buying demand,
The fundamental factor behind the sluggish buying is "price consensus"
In 2025, Ethereum consolidated sideways at 3800. When it broke below the consolidation, most started to panic, but then recovered the next day and never looked back, breaking through 4700.
The critical moment came. After the 3800 wave ended, good news kept coming, especially Tome Lee, who kept saying Ethereum would break 10,000 by year-end. Everyone knows he's boasting. Most people think 6000-8000 is a reasonable target, and then an anchor point forms: Ethereum is about to reach 6000. News keeps spreading, more and more people believe in this price, buying keeps coming, and the bull market ends
So, when a price consensus is reached, it's time to start reducing positions—selling more as prices rise, selling regularly, just like regular investing, just selling off
Because you have a position, you are part of this market, and your ideas can represent the public's perspective. So you will have the same price anchor as the masses, but our actions will become selling, rather than continuing to believe like the masses
So I have summarized several more detailed points below
1. Everyone firmly believes the bull market is coming
2. Volkswagen began to agree on a higher price anchor
3. No longer fearing a downturn; thinking it is just a pullback to clear leverage
When these signals appear, don't worry about any positive news. Sell firmly, don't be afraid to sell early. Selling early still keeps your rationality. What's truly scary is the top. Selling feels like betrayal, as if you were wrong, and you might even buy back uncontrollably, causing even greater losses
I believe these words more: Sell for profit, escape the top is a disaster. Now that the bear market is in August, the bull market will definitely come. The purpose of writing this article is to prepare for the next bull market
We hope to stay clear-headed at the end of the bull market and secure profits in time
In cryptocurrency, compound interest comes from realizing the money, not necessarily long-term holdingSanDisk rose 45% in two weeks from 1226 to 1775. Lao Mo has completely broken down the logic behind the surge SanDisk's latest price is 1711, with an intraday high of 1775. Starting from the August 5th earnings report low of 1226, it rebounded over 540 points in two weeks, with trading volume ranking first in the US market.
There is only one core catalyst: Investor Day on August 13. But the amount of information is enough for the market to digest for a whole week.
First, the long-term goal is explosive. Fiscal Year 2028-2030 model: gross margin about 80%, operating margin about 75%, free cash flow margin about 50%. For a traditional cyclical industry like NAND, an 80% gross margin is disruptive.
Second, NBM long-term contract business model is being restructured. Eight clients have been signed, with a total contract value of $94 billion, covering 50% of shipments in fiscal year 2027 and two-thirds in fiscal year 2028. SanDisk is shifting from a "spot cyclical stock" to a "long-term contract-style growth stock."
Third, HBF is an additional option. The first chip has already been tape-out, with delivery to customers in 2027. Not included in the financial model—if it becomes a pure increment.
Fourth, 100% excess cash returns to shareholders. The remaining buyback capacity is about $15.5 billion, which Goldman Sachs says is "far superior to peers."
Analysts collectively raised their target prices: Goldman Sachs 2200, JPMorgan Chase 2250, Bank of America 2500. The medium- to long-term logic remains intact, but after a 45% rise in two weeks, chasing high prices is losing its cost-effectiveness.
Did you get a share of SanDisk's recent surge? Let's talk about it in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Bitcoin is getting quieter, but the capital picture is not one-way.
10x Research says BTC volume has contracted, its trading range is at a multi-month low and implied volatility remains subdued. In a late-July snapshot, K33 estimated average daily spot volume at about $2.2B, putting the month on track for its weakest level since November 2023.
The slowdown extended beyond spot:
· CME BTC futures open interest was near levels last seen in 2023
· Perpetual futures open interest had stalled around 300,000 BTC
· The options put/call open-interest ratio fell from 0.76 in late June to about 0.52, suggesting less demand for downside hedges, though this alone does not indicate direction
The flow picture is also splitting:
· 10x sees broader BTC ETF demand as weak despite a recent rebound
· DWF Labs reports July ETH ETF inflows equal to 3.19% of fund size, versus 0.34% for BTC, a difference of around 9.4x in relative flow intensity
· 10x interprets stablecoin outflows as a sign that some liquidity may be moving outside crypto
Institutional positioning adds another layer. UBS increased its reported spot IBIT holdings from 364,371 shares in Q1 to 407,890 in Q2. Its reported call exposure rose from 80,000 to 1.95M underlying shares.
However, these Q2 holdings reflect positions as of June 30. Form 13F does not disclose option strikes, expiries or whether calls form part of a hedge, so the data should not be treated as a real-time directional signal.
July is historically one of BTC’s quieter trading months, meaning seasonality may explain part of the slowdown. Still, thin participation can leave prices more sensitive to the next ETF flow, macro surprise or positioning shift.
Which signal matters most for BTC’s next move: spot volume, ETF flows or volatility?
#BTCVolumeDriesUp #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? #消费动能转弱, September policy remains constrained by inflation. #标普盈利超预期, why is Wall Street still cautious? #AI巨头估值大战, it is indirectly affecting the crypto market 🚨
The valuation race between OpenAI and Anthropic is intensifying, with AI primary market valuations continuously reaching new heights.
This incident will have three tangible impacts on the crypto world:
(1) Flow is diverted and blood is drawn
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—these giants collectively surpassed 3.6 trillion in valuations and collectively rushed to the public market.
Institutional funds will be heavily attracted by high-profile AI IPOs, making crypto assets less attractive. As long as the AI IPO boom persists, the crypto market will be vulnerable to liquidity pressure in the short term.
(2) Two-way narrative linkage, with opportunities and risks coexisting
A large number of AI concept coins in the crypto world tell the same AI growth story.
If Anthropic successfully goes public at a valuation of 2 trillion, it will raise the ceiling of the entire AI sector, and crypto AI projects with established business operations will benefit from higher valuations.
Conversely, if the AI valuation bubble bursts and capital re-examines profitability, the risk of a correction will also be transmitted to the tech sector, and crypto AI coins will also be affected.
(3) Establish a brand-new valuation reference scale
After the IPOs of these two AI giants, the market will develop a complete set of evaluation criteria: how AI companies should be valued, monetized, and profits calculated.
This set of standards will spill over into the crypto space, and protocols with real cash flow will face repricing; Projects that rely solely on storytelling without real output will be rapidly cleared out.
Let me share my personal understanding:
In the short term, the listing of AI giants will squeeze capital in the crypto market.
But looking at the longer cycle, behind the trillion-yuan valuation, Wall Street is pricing computing power with real money.
OpenAI and Anthropic consume GPU computing power; Bitcoin itself is the carrier of computing power.
The more the AI industry burns money and the more computing power value is confirmed, the more Bitcoin's underlying narrative is strengthened. The underlying logic of the two is actually interconnected.
So here's the question: do you think the AI bull market will ultimately benefit or drag down the crypto market?
$BTC $ETH
#Crypto Let's start with the conclusion: Global asset resonance is expected to surge with a double peak next year
I reviewed two stocks
The god of price investing—gold
The god of speculation—BTC
1. Slope
After the final stage of the main rally with a nearly 90-degree rise ending and pullback, a second peak is almost inevitable. Gold has been the case for three consecutive cycles. For BTC, I chose the previous round, which is more representative. This round did not see a 90-degree rise at the end. For details, see the chart below
PS: The 90-degree slope represents: extreme buying with low turnover rate, extreme FOMO in sentiment, extreme valuation deviating from fundamentals, and extreme leverage
2. Correction Magnitude
The average pullback for gold is about 25%, with an increase of about 20%.
BTC pullback: 55%, gain: 128%
Micron is currently pulling back by 41%, with an expected future increase of over 150%. 3. Time
Looking back at this stage of the timeline, the AI sector in stocks doesn't rebound quickly after a sell-off, so it takes time to digest. BTC has been in a bear market for nearly a year, so the second half of the year is the time to confirm the bottom, and it will basically bottom out before US stocks
It's worth noting that there are still three months left until the midterm elections. Historically, there has always been a major correction before the midterm elections, and the probability of a stock market rise after the election is 100%. I've also posted the chart below
4. The necessity of pushing to the top again next year
This AI rally started with the GPT moment, but OPENAI hasn't gone public yet, and Anthropic hasn't gone public yet. Most likely, they'll all go public next year. So, with a clear beginning and end, the most beautiful stories always have to bloom at the highest point. That's why I lean toward the frenzy of at least one round of peak rally next year after the adjustment is completed in the second half of the year
For more details, check out the chart I posted. I think the probability of a double top is very high
My personal strategy is roughly to buy BTC + second-stage AI-related stocks at the bottom in the second half of the year, and sell at the peak next year
As for whether it will develop an eternal bull market, that's hard to say. Let's first take advantage of the highly certain double top first. This article once again sparks discussion; feel free to share and exchange differing opinions
$btc
$xauBTC has been trading in a narrow range between $62,800 and $63,000, with weekend volume further shrinking. On the surface, it seems calm, but position accumulation near $63,000 has become quite extreme, and an external catalyst could break the balance at any time.
The focus this week is not on technicals but on two policy events:
1. August 19 FOMC minutes (July 9-3 voting split)
2. On the same day, a White House meeting with executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and others, with Trump expected to attend. Against the backdrop of obstacles to the Clarity Act, this dialogue carries greater signaling significance.
Independent observation: The current sideways movement is pricing in "policy clarity." CPI meeting expectations but failing to ignite a rebound indicates macro data alone can no longer drive direction. What can truly change risk appetite is whether there is substantive progress in the US regulatory framework.
Meanwhile, the leak of Trezor + SafePal order data stands out more during price calm—keys were not lost, but identity addresses were exposed. "Device security" and "operational security" are two different matters. During low volatility periods, these structural risks often deserve more advance preparation than price fluctuations.
If clear signals come from the policy side, volatility will return; otherwise, sideways trading may extend. Clarifying position structure and safety boundaries is more important than guessing short-term price moves.
NFA
#Bitcoin #BTC #Cryptocurrency #MarketAnalysis #FOMC #RegulatoryPolicy #HardwareWallet #SelfCustody 📊 $ETH contract liquidation express (August 17)
According to liquidation data, Gouzhuang played a textbook strategy on ETH of "short-term full-force short squeezing→, long-term all-in long selling" strategy, switching direction decisively and accumulating liquidations exceeding $14.85 million.
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $1,160,900, $477,700, $683,200
4 hours: $5.7208 million, $1.4194 million, $4.3014 million
12 hours: $14.7591 million, $8.1911 million, $6.568 million
24 hours: $14.8582 million, $8.2529 million, $6.6053 million
From $ETH liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with shorts being 1.43 times the bulls. The short squeeze unfolded with nuclear explosion-level intensity, with liquidations at $1.16 million—shorts dominated the market in the short cycle, and the bulls were crushed; On the 4-hour period, the bears continued to crush, with the bears three times the bulls. The pressure was explosive at a nuclear explosion, with liquidations jumping from 1.16 million to $5.72 million—the bears went all out, and the bulls were completely crushed; The 12-hour direction completely reversed, with long liquidations crushing the bears, with the bulls being 1.25 times the bears. Dog House completed a fierce turnaround from short squeeze to long selling, with liquidations soaring to $14.75 million—bulls began to take over the game, while the bears were continuously harvested; The 24-hour bulls continued to crush, with long positions liquidated $8.2529 million versus short positions at $6.6053 million. Bulls were 1.25 times the shorts, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $14.85 million—Dog Farm completed the perfect harvesting path on ETH: "short-term full-force short squeeze → long-term all-out long selling" — short-term bears aggressively short squeezing, long-term bulls slaughtering backwards, a textbook-level double kill of both long and short positions, capturing both sides. But the key is that the bull crushing multiple has risen from 1.25 times in 12 hours to 1.25 times in 24 hours, stabilizing long selling momentum and entering a relatively balanced range. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being recovered and cut off.
⚠️ Risk warning: ETH short-term short squeezes (1H/4H) and long-term long selling (12H/24H) form a sharp direction switch, with extremely sharp directional shifts; 4-hour liquidations account for 38% of the total daily volume, with high concentration and extreme market volatility. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; do not chase gains or sell on declines, strictly control positions while waiting for clear direction.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 17
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Macro signals are split, and the market is undergoing a pricing restructuring of "data battles"—consumption is retreating, profits are pushing, and leverage is gambling.
📉 Consumption momentum weakens: interest rate cuts are unlikely, and hikes are hesitant
U.S. consumer demand has continuously signaled a cooling downturn. Retail sales in July fell 0.6% month-on-month, marking the largest drop in 14 months and far below the expected 0.1% growth; Core retail sales also fell 0.6%, also below expectations. Breaking it down, gas station sales plunged 4.9% month-on-month due to falling oil prices, and bulk goods such as furniture, automobiles, and electronics were generally weak, with only online sales barely maintaining positive growth. The rapid decline in consumption momentum echoes the unexpected negative turn of the July nonfarm payroll—the "dual declines" in the labor market and consumer spending are reinforcing each other.
However, inflation stickiness still locks in policy space. July CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year; Although PPI fell to 4.7% year-on-year, service costs recorded the largest increase this year, indicating that inflation cooling is not a direct downturn. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to about 33%, sharply contrasting with the low of about 12% after June CPI release—market concerns about inflation have never truly faded. Holding back is not because there is enough, but because they dare not move.
📈 S&P earnings beat expectations: Why only focus on 7,894 points?
The US Q2 earnings season delivered an impressive performance. S&P 500 constituent stocks' Q2 earnings grew 31% year-on-year, far exceeding the initial expectations; Overall earnings exceeded expectations by 7.4%, with over 90% of companies reporting earnings achieving profit growth.
However, Wall Street strategists have raised their year-end average target for the S&P 500 to 7,894—just about 1% higher than the current all-time high. The full-year earnings growth forecast has been raised from 15% to 27%, but valuation expansion has already been fully priced in. For the index to reach new highs, it needs sustained "better-than-expected" deliveries, not steady progress "in line with expectations."
📊 ETF buying reversal: BTC leveraged positions are re-accumulating
Bitcoin ETF capital flows have been highly volatile. After a net inflow of about $1.1 billion from August 3 to 7, it turned into a net outflow of about $329 million from August 10 to 14. Ethereum ETFs also weakened, with net inflows of only $16.4 million during the same period.
What is even more noteworthy is leverage—CryptoQuant data shows that open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts surged by $2 billion in the second week of August. If Bitcoin falls below $58,500, a large amount of leveraged positions could trigger passive liquidation. Buying reversals and leverage accumulation are signs of intensified long-bear battles.
💎 Summary
Consumption is retreating, profits are rushing, and leverage is gambling—weak consumption and sticky inflation are causing macro 'stagflation' problems; Earnings beating expectations and narrow target price space create valuation contradictions; Buying reversals and leverage rebuilding create the tension in the crypto market. No hope of rate cuts, no hesitation to raise rates, rising profits, stacking leverage—the market is pricing in the second half of 2026 in the most split way. #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
#SPCX持股结构曝光, Harvard 13F is heavily invested
#标普盈利超预期, why is Wall Street still cautious? As of August 17 Beijing time, $BTC is still fluctuating around $63,000. The price has declined somewhat over the past week, and spot ETF funds have weakened again. At least based on the current fund structure, the market has not yet entered the stage of "blindly buying risk assets." The most noteworthy aspect of this round of the market is not that a certain sector suddenly saw a big bullish candle, but whether the money is still in the market and where it is preparing to go. Currently, the total market capitalization of stablecoins remains high. Although there has been a slight decline in the past week, there is no obvious large-scale capital withdrawal from the crypto market. In other words, many funds may not have exited but are instead waiting and watching. This is very important. The most common misjudgment in the mid-to-late bull market phase is seeing a few coins rise and thinking that a "full altcoin season" is about to arrive. But real capital rotation usually does not happen overnight; it starts from low-risk, highly liquid assets and gradually spreads toward higher Beta directions. $BTC remains the most important liquidity anchor for institutional funds. As long as ETF funds do not stabilize and flow back in, the overall market risk appetite will be difficult to truly open up. However, compared to that, $ETH's position is starting to become interesting. In recent periods, ETH ETF funds have clearly outperformed BTC, indicating that institutions are not completely unwilling to increase risk but are trying to find more flexible allocation directions beyond BTC. The problem is that on-chain data has not yet fully confirmed a trend reversal, so what really needs to be watched here is not the inflow on a single day$SNDK I originally wanted to catch a high vantage point in front, but this "Heaven and Earth Needle" almost sent me to death
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the price is still above the EMA20 and EMA60, and the MACD is also in a bullish pattern, but the RSI has already dropped to 79.88, showing clear short-term overheating. What's more noteworthy is that when this spike appeared, the volume immediately expanded to about 20 times the average of nearly 20 bars, indicating that the previous move wasn't just ordinary volatility, but rather a fierce battle between bulls and bears at a high level.
Currently near 1710, first look for resistance around 1775 above, and watch if it can hold near 1653 below.
The worst part about this position is: it looks strong, but if you chase in, it's easy to get pinned.
With just now, do you think they were washing long positions, or have they already started high-level distribution?
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? 拿传统收入估值硬套比特币，我觉得会失真。首页已经开始讨论“加密估值转向收入”，但当前可见比特币约63.06K、下跌0.04%，以太坊约1.88K、下跌0.22%，价格暂时没有出现重新定价的迹象。 判断比特币是否获得更高估值，我更愿意交叉看三项：ETF净流入能否持续、长期持有者供应是否明显变化，以及链上结算与手续费是否同步活跃。只讲收入而忽略稀缺性和资金流，结论很容易偏。你认为哪项指标最适合给比特币定价？$ETH $BTC In the micro-level game of trading psychology, when a group has been trapped for months and experienced multiple panic shakeouts, their strongest obsession is no longer to earn double profits, but rather the extremely humble four words—"break even and then run."
Therefore, whenever the market rebounds near the cost line of short-term holders' positions, a massive amount of chips eager to break even instantly flood on-chain.
These speculators who survived the panic will rush to place Ping An sell orders, forming a thick iceberg resistance zone on the market. If there is no new off-exchange spot buying (such as ETF massive net inflows) to capture this portion of the uneven market, the rebound momentum will be completely exhausted by this selling pressure in a very short time.
#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? #SPCX持股结构曝光, Harvard 13F heavily invested ⚠️史诗反弹却疯狂做空！芯片AI大行情，全是假象？
最近全球科技市场最诡异的一幕出现了📉
韩国股市走出逆天修复行情，大盘月涨6%，科技创业板直接暴涨20%，芯片、AI概念股集体回血，看似牛市重启。
但机构空头根本不买账，反而逆势疯狂加仓做空！
最新数据：韩国股市未平仓做空余额冲到19万亿韩元，单月暴增14%，相比7月底足足增加2.27万亿。
越涨越空、越反弹越砸盘，这波操作直接撕开了本轮科技反弹的虚假外衣。
很多散户被大涨迷惑，以为AI芯片利空出尽、新行情开启。但机构看得无比清醒：
本轮暴涨只是超跌技术性修复，不是基本面反转！
上个月市场暴跌的核心隐患至今没解决：AI投资盈利逻辑存疑，下游芯片需求疲软，整个存储芯片行业见顶风险依旧高悬。
这里给大家拆解最关键的底层逻辑：
1. 行情是杠杆推出来的，不是业绩撑起来的
韩国股市高度绑定三星、SK海力士两大存储巨头，靠资金杠杆、情绪反弹强行拉涨，没有真实订单和营收支撑，属于典型的情绪泡沫。
2. 空头加码=机构提前避险
专业资金从来不赌情绪，持续做空说明：机构预判后续还有回调风险，当前高位性价比极低，随时会迎来获利砸盘。
3. 芯片周期拐点未到
存储芯片本身是强周期赛道，暴涨暴跌是常态。现在行业只是短暂企稳，并非彻底走出下行周期，一旦情绪退潮，跌幅会非常惨烈。
联动全市场核心影响
✅ 股市/芯片板块：本轮AI、存储反弹是诱多行情，高位切勿追高，后续大概率震荡回落，科技股风险远大于机会。
✅ 币圈AI存储赛道：A股、韩股芯片情绪，直接联动SNDK等AI存储币种。股市泡沫破裂，山寨存储币会率先承压，超涨标的务必规避追高风险。
✅ 全球风险资产：科技股分歧加剧，市场避险情绪悄悄回暖，对高波动的加密市场整体偏利空。
总结一句话：散户看涨幅追牛市，机构做空防崩盘。
现在所有科技类反弹，都是博弈行情，不是趋势行情，重仓猛干必被收割！
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
#AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元
#韩股十日反弹逾22%，芯片股领涨
#闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 Now that INJ has fallen to this point, I'm actually starting to take it seriously again
Recently, I dug up INJ and rewatched it.
To be honest, this coin is hardly discussed anymore.
Back when the market was good, many called INJ a "divine coin." When prices rose, people would talk about every logic: DeFi, derivatives, RWA, institutional finance, deflation.
Now that the hype has died down, the discussion has decreased.
But I actually think this kind of time is more suitable for research than when everyone is shouting.
Looking at INJ, what interests me most is not how fast Injective technology is, but its token model.
INJ has now entered a fully circulating phase.
This is very important to me.
Because now, when I look at altcoins, I'm increasingly afraid of one thing: unlocking a steady stream of coins in the coming years.
Projects may be good and ecosystems may grow, but as long as early investors, teams, and various shares keep being released, there will always be people buying chips in the secondary market.
INJ has at least relieved this pressure.
Looking further down, it's about its buyback and destruction.
Injective has now upgraded the previous Burn Auction to Community BuyBack, allowing ecosystem participants to use part of their income to buy back INJ, and the repurchased INJ is permanently burned.
Official data shows that over 7 million INJ have been burned so far.
I personally like this model.
But note, what I like is "model," not just because the word "destruction" means I'm bullish on INJ.
What truly determines whether this system has value is whether the Injective ecosystem can continuously generate revenue.
If the ecosystem has no real transaction volume, no fees, and no growing user base, then so-called buyback and destruction will ultimately be just one hand turning the other.
So now that INJ's price has dropped, I actually won't ask first:
"Can we still go back to the front high?"
Let me start with three more questions.
Can Injective's real trading volume grow again?
Can RWA, derivatives, and on-chain finance generate ongoing revenue?
Can this revenue ultimately be returned to INJ through buybacks and burns?
If all three answers are yes, then in INJ's current low-profile phase, I actually think it's worth continuing to follow.
But if ecosystem revenue never grows, then no matter how beautiful terms like full circulation, deflation, or buyback are, they won't solve the problem of insufficient demand.
This is also the biggest change in my view of altcoins right now.
I used to like searching for the "next narrative."
Now I prefer to find a closed loop:
Some people use → generate income→ income flows back→ reducing token supply→ which truly benefits holders.
I am willing to spend time on projects that can build this closed loop.
If you can't escape, no matter how sexy the story is, I'll slowly give up.
So INJ is currently on my watchlist, and it's not a low position.
Not because I think it will definitely rise.
Nor is it because "after such a big drop, it should have bottomed out."
But rather, it at least gave me a logic that could be continuously verified.
Full circulation solves supply pressures.
Ecosystem growth meets demand.
Buyback and destruction resolve value returns.
What is missing now is data proving that these three things really connect.
If one day this closed loop succeeds, the market will naturally reprice it.
If it doesn't work, I won't keep making excuses for it just because I once believed in it.
Coins can be studied long-term.
But don't believe in it for long.
Study trends and seek certainty.
Reject emotions, respect logic.
——Zero chain length
⚠️ The above represents only personal research and views and does not constitute any investment advice. INJ is a highly volatile crypto asset. The full circulation and repo and burn mechanisms do not necessarily mean the price will rise. Please make independent judgments and manage your position and risk accordingly.
#INJ #Injective #Crypto #DeFi #RWA #链上金融 #山寨币 #Zero链长
#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? #SPCX持股结构曝光, Harvard 13F heavily #标普盈利超预期 positions—why is Wall Street still cautious? What is the current state of BTC liquidity?
Overall, it is in a significant contraction state, with multiple indicators hitting historic lows:
· Order Book Depth Halved: Bitcoin's 2% order book depth dropped from about $70 million in early May to $35–$40 million by the end of June
· Spot trading volume has plummeted: daily volume has shrunk from a peak of about $200 billion in 2025 to about $50 billion now, just 25% of the peak; In January 2026, spot trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since November 2023; In August, it further dropped to $2.2 billion
· Trading volume is extremely sluggish: recent trading volume is only 95.43, less than a fraction of the 5-day average (4548).
· Volatility is extremely compressed: BTC's daily Bollinger Band is the narrowest since January, with prices fluctuating narrowly between $61,000 and $67,000
Five major reasons for liquidity contraction
1. Large-scale outflows of stablecoins
Since 2026, the total stablecoin supply has shrunk from $159 billion to $153.4 billion, a net decrease of $5.6 billion. Binance has seen a cumulative net outflow of nearly $7 billion in stablecoins in 2026; In July alone, Binance and Bybit saw over $2.3 billion in outflows. USDT's market cap decreased by about $4 billion in 60 days, approaching its lowest historical level.
2. Institutional capital inflows have weakened
Bitcoin ETFs continued to see net outflows, the buying support effect from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) faded, and the market's 30-day rolling capital flow remained in a net outflow state.
3. Tightening macro liquidity
The Federal Reserve unexpectedly turned hawkish, causing the market to lose support for easing expectations; The U.S. Treasury is expected to withdraw about $150 billion in liquidity from the financial system.
4. Leverage cleared but depth not restored
In Q2, total liquidations of Bitcoin and Ethereum long positions amounted to $8.35 billion, and Bitcoin open interest fell by 32%. Although leverage decreased, market depth did not recover in tandem.
5. Seasonal trading is sluggish
Typical summer trading activity declined, combined with a macro data vacuum, causing global funds to enter a defensive and wait-and-see mode. $BTC $ETH $OKB #BTC成交萎缩 can ETF buying rebound? Wow, SanDisk$SNDK is still surging.
To put it bluntly, the story of Investor Day is still fermenting: institutions believe long-term contracts can smooth out the cycle, short sellers keep closing positions, and analysts raise target prices, driving the stock price even higher.
But I always feel the hype is a bit overdone; the consumer side is still underperforming, all supported by cloud providers' stories. Now, if we factor all the good expectations for the next few years into stock prices in advance, if reality falls against fantasies one day, it will probably be ruthless. #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨, long-term goals to be verified #标普盈利超预期, why is Wall Street still cautious? #SPCX持股结构曝光, Harvard 13F Heavy Position. The latest disclosed 13F filing has unveiled some institutional holdings in SpaceX. Harvard Management Company's holdings are valued at about $2.21 billion, making it the largest public U.S. stock portfolio heavyweight, with a position exceeding half, far surpassing TSMC's $350 million. It should be noted that this position is not a recent secondary market purchase, but rather an early private equity move more than a decade ago, with substantial returns alongside the completion of the IPO.
This holding sends two signals. First, leading long-line funds are optimistic about the dual themes of aerospace + AI. Institutions no longer simply see SpaceX as a rocket company, but instead benchmark against next-generation infrastructure, and are optimistic about the long-term growth potential of Starlink and AI computing power businesses. Second, university endowments are clustered in clusters, with prestigious universities like the University of California also holding large positions. Long-term capital clusters entering the market have boosted market sentiment.
But the positive news should not be overinterpreted. Harvard is an old position with deep floating gains, with no short-term logic for chasing highs, and there is a possibility of selling shares at any time. The biggest current risk comes from high valuations. After a short squeeze and rebound, stock prices have already met expectations. If satellite internet or aerospace projects fall short of expectations, valuation corrections are very likely.
Overall, the news leans toward positive sentiment and is unlikely to drive a new round of sharp gains alone. Going forward, the focus will be on tracking more leading institutions increasing and reducing holdings $BTC $ETH $SPCX With SpaceX's first round of restriction lifted, not only did it avoid the expected sell-off, but its stock price climbed all the way to $140, climbing back above its IPO price of $135, marking a significant rebound from the bottom $SPCX
There are two layers to this rally: first, after the lock-up, early shareholders didn't rush to dump shares, so the expected stampede didn't happen; Second, short-selling funds rushed to close out and cover positions, creating a short squeeze, and with the narrative of space AI computing power, several people worked together to push the price up $SNDK
But we veterans need to be clear: this is a recovery rebound after the risks settle, not a total loss of risk. Starlink is indeed profitable, but its rocket and AI businesses burn through a lot of cash, and there are still several rounds of unlocking windows ahead. Sina Finance will still test the market's ability to take over $BTC
Don't rush in just because the stock price rebounds; the short squeeze is volatile. Don't mistake short-term rebounds for long-term bull signals. Pay close attention to earnings reports and upcoming unlocking updates, and be sure to hold onto your positions.What happened? BTC has failed to take advantage of relatively favorable US economic data. The price is still hovering around $62–63K, while inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have reversed. In the sessions of August 12–13, the Bitcoin ETF recorded about -$61.1 million and -$131.1 million, respectively, after a series of 5 days of cash inflows. It is worth noting that the ETH ETF still had a positive cash flow of about $5.9 million on August 13, indicating that institutional cash flows have not completely left crypto but are trending selectively. Why is it important? A$ETH 我在1878持有ETH多单，这笔交易不是追涨，而是基于1865—1875附近反复出现承接。
最近ETH从1900上方回落后，一直围绕1870—1890震荡，说明下方存在买盘，但1895—1910的压力始终没有真正突破，多头目前还没有拿到明确的确认信号。
✔ 1878做多的优势，是距离短线支撑不远，交易失效条件比较清楚。
✔ 问题是行情仍在震荡区间内，BTC也还压在63000附近，ETH现货ETF资金流相比前一周明显降温，所以目前只能算蓄势，不能直接认定新一轮上涨已经启动。
✔ 我这笔单开了75倍杠杆，所以不会拿1840这种大级别支撑去硬扛。短线重点看1865附近，守住就继续等1895—1910；放量突破并回踩站稳，再看1920—1950。
✔ 如果以1865作为执行失效位，1878到1865承担13点风险，按照1:3的盈亏比，目标至少需要看到1917附近，正好接近1920压力位。
我还是偏多，但不是无条件看多。高杠杆最重要的是让止损发生在强平之前，不能最后方向看对了，仓位却先死在正常波动里。Brothers, today I'm going to talk about a story about falling from grace—$KAITO.
Just checked OKX data: KAITO/USDT is currently around $0.3365. How tragic is this price? At the end of July, it was still fluctuating around $1.37, dropping over 75% in just two weeks, giving back all the gains from July.
What's even more heartbreaking is that the all-time high price of this coin was $2.925, and now it's just a fraction left.
📉 What happened? From $1.37 to $0.33, it took only two weeks
KAITO's recent sharp drop is the result of several factors combined.
1. The "tide" of concept hype has receded
What KAITO does is "attention infrastructure"—using AI to track crypto market sentiment and mental share. In July, the InfoFi 2.0 concept exploded, pushing KAITO from around $0.40 all the way up to $1.37.
But after the hype faded, funds ran faster than anyone else. Daily trading volume shrank from $84 million to $25 million, and total value locked (TVL) dropped from $21.9 million to about $8 million. Any gains without real demand support will eventually be paid back.
2. Whales are selling like crazy
CoinGlass data shows that the gap between whale and retail positions in KAITO remains high, indicating that large players are actively reducing their positions and believe the current price is still expensive.
3. On August 20th, there's another "bombshell" set to explode
On August 20, 32.6 million KAITO will be unlocked, accounting for 3.26% of the total supply. The market is pricing in this selling pressure in advance—running before unlocking is the survival rule in the crypto world.
4. Derivatives Market: Bulls Suffer a Crushing Blow
The funding rate for perpetual contracts has been negative for several consecutive days, indicating that everyone is shorting. The liquidation volume of long positions far exceeds short positions, and long leverage has been repeatedly taught by the market.
📊 Technicals: Is $0.33 the bottom or halfway up?
From market data, KAITO has already fallen below the July starting point of $0.40.
· Current price: $0.3365, currently in the lowest range since August
· Lower support: $0.266 — If $0.40 is completely breached, analysts consider this level the next target and the lowest point for 2026
· Resistance above: $0.40-$0.45 (previous support turned into resistance), $0.80-$0.90 (moving average resistance zone)
💰 My view: At this level, should you buy the dip or wait?
KAITO's fundamentals haven't collapsed — the project is still progressing normally, and at the end of July, the Katalyst creator reward tier was launched, allowing the project to pay based on actual performance. But "the project is not dead" does not mean "the price will not continue to fall."
The biggest short-term uncertainty is the unlock on August 20. 32.6 million tokens will flood in, and if the market can't hold on, prices may have to drop further.
My strategy:
· For those looking to bottom-fish: wait until August 20, after the unlock and landing. If $0.30 holds, try a light position; If it breaks through, wait until around $0.266 before looking again
· For those with positions: if the cost is above $0.40, cutting losses or holding on now is uncomfortable—but the selling pressure before unlocking is real. If it rebounds to $0.38-$0.40, consider reducing your position
· The safest approach: wait for the unlocked landing, wait for the panic board clearance, and wait for the signal on the right. Taking the throwing knife now has a low win rate
KAITO fell from $1.37 to $0.33, and several groups of bottom-fishers have already been buried. No matter how good the story is, it can't withstand the double blow of token unlock + whale sell-off.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard With S&P earnings so strong, Wall Street is hesitant to set targets that are too outrageous
This is definitely worth savoring
Q2 US earnings exceeded expectations, with many companies beating expectations under the FactSet caliber. JPMorgan, Citi, and Yardeni all raised their S&P targets and EPS assumptions. The problem is, the index is already at a high level, so setting a target price higher means assuming AI spending is realizing, consumption remains stable, inflation does not rebound, and oil prices remain stable
Looking at these reports now, my main focus is not on target points
It's about whether the document admits that the 'margin for error has decreased.'
At high prices, the most common misconception arises: because the company is doing well, stock prices can stay high. But once stock prices reach a certain level, good news is just an entry ticket; surprises are the fuel
It's not that no one is bullish on the S&P right now
Even those who read more know that going any higher requires homework at every step
#标普盈利超预期, why is Wall Street still cautious? 很多人看到 EIP-8363，第一反应都是：减少发行，ETH利好。 我一开始也是这么想的。 但把这份草案多看几遍，会发现它根本不只是一次“减发行”，而是在重新分配以太坊生态里最核心的一块蛋糕：质押收益。 现在的机制很简单：质押的人越多，单个验证者的收益率会下降，但全网仍持续发放共识奖励。理论上，就算几乎所有 ETH 都拿去质押，网络依旧会持续给质押者发钱。 问题也在这里。 如果质押越来越容易——交易所一点、LST一点、ETF再一点——大量 ETH 会自然流向少数托管方、质押服务商和大型机构。普通持币者不质押，就持续承受新增发行带来的稀释；而掌握流量入口的人，躺着吃收益。 EIP-8363 想处理的，就是这个问题。 它不是直接砍掉质押奖励，而是让质押规模越高，共识层新增发行被抵消得越多。按草案设计，当全网质押接近约 6025 万枚 ETH、约占总供应量一半时，共识层的新增发行会被完全抵消。整个过程会分约18个月逐步过渡，不是明天突然砍半。 注意，这里被压缩的是**共识层发行奖励**。优先费和 MEV 不是同一回事。 所以对不同人，结果完全不同。 不质押的持币者会说：终于不用看着自己手里的When it comes to weakening consumption, what the market fears most is not that people won't spend
It's people who stop spending, and inflation hasn't fully softened yet
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in July, and consumer confidence was also hampered by high oil prices and price pressures. Logically, cooling consumption should help ease the Fed's pressure, but the current problem is that energy, services, and wages won't immediately comply just because of a single retail data
I think the deals here are especially complicated
Bad data makes people want to bet on policy shifts, but before inflation falls comfortably enough, the Fed can't loosen too quickly. So the market is caught in the middle: on one hand, hoping for cooling in exchange for easing; on the other, worrying that cooling will hurt corporate incomes first
This is not a classic favorable script
It's more like a car running out of gas, but the brakes still haven't been fixed
#消费动能转弱, September policy remains constrained by inflation The most interesting thing about SpaceX-like assets entering 13F isn't how much they bought
Instead, private equity unicorns are being "examined" by the public market
When Harvard's long-term capital appears in the discussion, many people subconsciously think it's endorsement. But 13F has a very annoying detail: it is naturally lagging behind. When it is disclosed, the market sees a shadow of a past quarter's end, not today's true position
I prefer to take it as a signal
After SpaceX's IPO, stories that used to circulate only among private equity, funds, and secondary shares have become assets that ordinary investors can also compare. Starlink, launches, AI computing power, and military contracts have all been squeezed into a single stock code for trading
This brings liquidity, but also leads to misinterpretation
The more mythical a company is, the more vigilant it is to treat "holding exposure" as a "future guarantee."
#SPCX持股结构曝光, Harvard 13F is heavily invested 这不是赌暴富，而是在等一个“验证”。 ：在经历了98%的暴跌后，“回本”的执念已经超越了“发财”的幻想。但残酷的现实是，项目基本面并未改善，你等待的那个“证明”，可能永远不会到来。
为什么你会有“再等等”的执念
你的坚持源于典型的 “处置效应” 心理：面对巨大亏损，大脑会本能地拒绝承认失败，将“卖出”等同于“承认错误”。你害怕的不是亏损本身，而是未来某天看到它涨起来时，那种“当初为什么没再等等”的悔恨。
残酷的现实：为什么“证明”很难到来
理性分析一下，这个“证明”成立的概率极低，因为项目正面临三重死结：
- 叙事已死，赛道内卷：CoreDAO的核心故事是“连接比特币的DeFi”（BTCFi）。但现在这个赛道挤满了更强的对手（如Babylon、Sovereign Rollups），CoreDAO已失去先发优势，且缺乏独特的技术护城河。
- 价格崩盘，信心崩塌：从历史高点$6.14暴跌至$0.02附近，跌幅超98%。这种极致的财富毁灭效应，让任何新资金都不敢进场，形成了“没人买就不涨，不涨就更没人买”的死循环。
- 生态空心化：项目方虽然推出了SatPay等应用，但缺乏真实的用户增长和收入。反而因为项目的热度，吸引了大量骗子利用其名义进行“跑路”和“钓鱼”，进一步恶化了生存环境。
给“再拿一段”的你一个建议
如果你决定继续持有，请不要把它当成“投资”，而应视为“沉没成本的纪念品”。
1.停止补仓：不要试图通过加仓来“摊薄成本”，这是在往一个可能无底的洞里扔更多钱。
2.设定底线：给自己一个明确的心理价位或时间节点（比如再拿3个月）。如果届时价格依然毫无起色，或者出现更坏的基本面消息（如项目方停止更新），请机械地执行卖出，斩断这个心理包袱。
3.转移注意力：把精力投入到新的、有前景的项目或现实生活中。当你不再每天盯着K线时，这种“等待”的痛苦会减轻很多。
你不是在等暴富，你是在等一个解脱。但真正的解脱，往往不是来自价格的反弹，而是来自你主动选择放下的那一刻。The era of vertical expansion on $SNDK is officially behind us. Heavy with a 99%+ decline off top valuations, continuous token unlocks continue to overwhelm secondary market bids before momentum can build.
In stark contrast to $BICO,$BEAT, $ALLO,$KAITO, and $APR—which all absorbed fresh liquidity to execute solid turnaround runs—$SNDK fails to construct a support floor or draw in organic buyers. Without clear accumulation footprints, betting on a turnaround is pure speculation.
$SNDK
#CryptoRevenueVsBTC #哈佛把半个美股仓位押在 SPCX, the smart money quietly left empty
On August 14, Harvard issued a Q2 13F order at the SEC, and the words "SpaceX" pushed the Rockets' stock price back to 140; 24 hours later, an unexpected contrast emerged on the market—Harvard had bet half its US stock position on SPCX, while OKX's smart money was quietly shorting.
This quarter, Harvard Management Company held 12,935,100 shares of SpaceX Class A stock, with a book value of about $2.21 billion (closing at $17.086 on June 30), with a single holding accounting for 51.84% of its roughly $4.26 billion US stock 13F portfolio—not a test, but directly giving the heaviest part of its US stock account to the rocket. Note that 13F only covers public US stocks, not private overseas equities. The "52% SPCX" only applies within the context of its public US stock position, so don't overthink it as "the whole school is betting on the rocket."
On June 30, about 1,697 institutions across the market placed SpaceX on the 13th floor. The first division was Alphabet: 551 million shares / $94.18 billion (the follow-on investment from ten years ago had expanded about 100 times); Next were Valor 503 million / 86 billion, Fidelity 303 million / 51.66 billion, Saudi PIF 154.1 million Class A shares (about 26.3 billion at 6/30 discount), Nvidia 122.8 million shares / 20.98 billion USD — NVDA's share was a byproduct of the $10 billion investment in xAI Series E in January and the "automatic growth" after xAI merged into SpaceX in February — it is betting on Musk's overall AI growth potential. This list puts top capital firms like Alphabet, Saudi Sovereignty, Nvidia, and Harvard before all investors.
Many blame the August drop on lock-ups, but the situation is even more complicated. 8/4–5 Q2 earnings report first: Capex more than doubled year-on-year, outpacing revenue by scale, dropping 14% in a single day, closing at a historic low of $108.27 on 8/5. Only then did the first unlocking of the lock-up period on 8/6—911.5 million shares, worth about $100 billion (7–8% of circulating float), unlocked. On the day of unlock, instead of falling, it rose 6.1% to close at $114.92—AP/CNN/Bloomberg all said "the fear of dumping was not realized." The decline was driven by earnings reports, not by the lock-up unlock; the first release actually became a turning point of "negative news realized—short covering — rebound starting point."
Price: 8/17 09:55 SPCX perpetual $141.68, 24h +1.58%; 30-day 125.59 → 8/6 low 105.39 → 8/13 high 149.47 → retracement 140 — "V + second pullback". OKX single SWAP oiUSD about 65.6 million USD; 24h funding fee −0.0041%, almost zero slightly bearish, bulls just lifted out of the negative 8/12–13 zone.
Duan Yongping: On July 24, sold 1,000 SPCX put options (exercise 115, expiring 12/18), each at $23.26 million for 2.326 million in premium; On 8/5, at 108.68 per share, he added 100,000 shares of underlying stock — combined +3.13 million, plus premium about +5.458 million USD, the "short volatility + value bottom" strategy.
Smart money was short at this point: out of 100 qualified traders on the signal page, only 6 were in positions—3 long, 4 short, weighted long 44.6% / short 55.4%, net nominal amount −91,500 USD. Long average entry price was 145.45 (floating loss above current price $3.8), short 136.66 (book green); Win rate: long 67%, short 78%. Total position is only 840,000 USD, but the 4:3 oligopoly is clear—Harvard is adding long, smart money is shorting.
Institutional holdings have been exposed for the "institutional valuation anchor" narrative. On 8/12, Morgan Stanley detoxified Q2 from fixed to "buy opportunity," targeting 300 / bull market 600—pricing SPCX as "AI infrastructure" rather than "rocket companies." Equal risk amount: After 1,697 holdings are transparent, the second and third rounds of lockup are unlocked—the 154.1 million shares of Saudi sovereignty are potential supply at every point in time; If Q3 capex remains below the revenue line, the negative news hasn't finished yet; On X, HaxKai's short position at 140→131 on 8/13 has already taken fruit, clearly stating that "two-way volatility is suitable for market making, not for belief."
$SPCX $NVDA # #SPCX #SpaceX #SPCX持股结构曝光, heavy holdings on Harvard 13F The attack surface of hardware wallets is not limited to devices. On August 16, SafePal disclosed that its order tracking plugin had authorization flaws, and about 39,798 customers' names, emails, shipping addresses, phone numbers, and purchase details may have been accessed without authorization. The incident did not involve mnemonic phrases, private keys, wallet passwords, or access to funds, but order data could turn "someone holding a hardware wallet" into a profile for targeted phishing: attackers know how to contact, where to send it, and can also disguise themselves through after-sales, replacement, or firmware reminders. Trezor's logistics service provider incident also involved customer identity and delivery information. The conclusion is not that "offline private keys are enough": device security, order systems, logistics, and customer service communication together form the security boundary. Do not submit mnemonic phrases, private keys, or passwords in letters, texts, phone calls, or letters without independent verification; If a mnemonic phrase or private key has already been entered due to suspicious contact, the wallet should be considered affected and the remaining assets migrated. Information sources: SafePal Security Bulletin, CoinDesk, BleepingComputer #AI #Web3 #MPC #SelfCustody #PhishingBrothers, let's talk about something different today—$ZHIPU, China's first AI stock.
Just checked OKX's data, and the ZHIPU perpetual contract price is around $152.62. This batch is not a crypto crypto aircoin, but a Hong Kong equity perpetual contract of Tsinghua-affiliated AI unicorn Zhipu, with the underlying asset being the Hong Kong stock 02513. Since its listing in January, it has increased 20-25 times from its issue price of 116 HKD, with a market cap in the $120-150 billion range.
🔥 What happened? GLM-5.3 released, but stock price "exhausts all the good news"
On August 14, Zhipu officially released its new flagship model, the GLM-5.3.
Here are some hardcore stats:
· Its programming capabilities are 50% higher than GLM-5.2, and it ranked first in open source benchmarks such as TerminalBench
· Achieved 84.5% in CyberGym vulnerability discovery tests, slightly higher than OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol's 83.6%.
· Two weeks later, model weights will be opened, following an open-source approach
· Already integrated with JD Cloud MaaS platform
However, the stock price reversed and fell that afternoon, now quoted at about HKD 1,288, down approximately 3.5%.
A classic case of "all the good news is released"—the model is strong, but market expectations are too high, and the news has become an excuse to take profits.
📊 Market Status: High-volatility AI stocks, both bulls and bears are being educated
Several key figures:
· Current OKX price: $152.62, with significant 24-hour volatility
· Hong Kong spot market: about HKD 1288, equivalent to about USD 166, with a price difference
· Daiwa Ratings: First coverage gives a "Buy" rating, target price 1500 HKD, optimistic about MaaS business growth
Risk 1: Very small circulating supply
Less than 6% of Hong Kong stocks are tradable, with daily fluctuations of 25-30% being the norm. On July 13, 197.8 million shares were placed through placement, and there is still pressure to unlock the stock market ahead.
Risk 2: Overvaluation
By 2025, revenue will be only $100 million**, net loss of $650 million**, and a price-to-sales ratio of over 1,000 times—fully priced based on the scarcity of "China's strongest open-source AI," without fundamental support.
💰 My opinion
ZHIPU is a mapping of China's AGI narrative in the crypto market—"If OpenAI is worth $850 billion, why can't China's OpenAI be worth $150 billion?" ”
But the short-term game is extremely brutal:
· In late July, ZHIPU rebounded 31% from its low, with a group of short sellers opening short positions in the $127-143 range, suffering unrealized losses of nearly 40%
· On the day GLM-5.3 was released, the stock price reversed and fell, and another batch of long-tail buyers were buried
· Double kill between bulls and bears—whoever moves first dies first
My strategy:
· For those wanting to go long: wait for a pullback to confirm stabilization in the $140-$145 range, light position to test long, stop loss at $135
· Want to short: If the rebound is weak at $160-$165, try it, stop loss at $170
· The safest approach: If volatility is too high, keep your position within 3% of your total capital, or simply watch the show
ZIPU's fundamentals are "the hope of Chinese AI," but the trading side is like a "retail investor meat grinder." July placement, August stock market unlock, model release, Hong Kong stock linkage—too many variables, too hard to predict.
💰 Today's profit and loss: I didn't make a move on ZIPU; this volatility is not something ordinary people can withstand. Let's talk in the comments: Do you believe in China's long-term AI story? Would you dare to get in at this position? 👇
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? 如果现货榜前排全是小市值在冲，那衍生品市场其实已经替我们投票了。 你看到了吗？ OKX 现货涨幅榜今天像被按了加速键，BICO 直接拉了 22.39%，ONE 也有 11% 的进账，WLFI、ROBO、LEO、ONT、CVX、ILV 全在涨。一眼扫过去，像春天刚化冻的河面，碎冰噼里啪啦往下掉，确实热闹。 但热闹背后，我更在意的是另一层信号。 现货涨幅榜只是地表，真正的暗流在合约市场。今天的榜单里，除了 LEO 这种老牌稳健选手，其余几乎都是高 beta 的中小市值资产。这意味着什么？意味着目前进场的大概率是风险偏好极高的资金，它们对杠杆的渴望超过了对确定性的追求。 如果你去看这些币的资金费率，会发现一个很有意思的现象。部分涨幅靠前的币种，永续合约资金费率已经悄悄转正，甚至抬升。这说明衍生品交易者正在支付溢价来维持多头头寸，市场不是单纯在买现货，而是在用杠杆加注趋势延续。这种结构如果持续，会进一步吸引套利资金进场，形成正向循环。 但第二层影响往往被人忽略。当小币种合约持仓量快速膨胀时，往往意味着市场情绪进入亢奋区间。这时候最怕的不是下跌，而是闪崩。一旦某个币种触发大量止损，连环清算会顺着$NFLX Just after climbing a slope from a low point, Ackman's re-entry and positioning have brought market attention back to streaming assets.
On August 14, the market closed at 78.16, having rebounded 20% from the 52-week low of 65.
The core driver of this rebound is the repricing of the 325 million subscription base, with institutions betting that scale effects can still hold the moat.
The combination of a recovery in external risk appetite and large capital replenishment positions has pushed short-term valuations out of the previously extremely pessimistic oversold range.
If subsequent capital inflows continue and subscription retention persists, the price stabilizes above the short-term rebound center, and valuation recovery will spread to a broader market.
Once macro inflation expectations resurface and suppress long-term preference, or if AI tools materially erode distribution barriers, this rebound momentum will quickly weaken.
The essence of this rally is position replenishment catalyzed by events, rather than long-term content pricing logic that has been thoroughly clarified.
The most noteworthy variable to watch in the next seven days is whether the trading volume in the tokenized US stock market after the rebound can withstand the selling pressure from profit-taking.
#消费动能转弱, September policy remains constrained by inflation. #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying interest recover?#比特币熊市倒计时, there may only be a window of about 40 days left.
If the script from previous cycles continues to take effect,
The ultimate bottom of this BTC bear market is very likely to occur in Q4.
Looking back at Bitcoin's more than ten years of bull and bear cycles, there is a very perplexing pattern of time:
2015-2017 Bull Market: 1062 days
2017-2018 bear market: 362 days
2018-2021 Bull Market: 1068 days
2021-2022 bear market: 361 days
2022-2025 Bull Market: 1061 days
The cycle length is almost a replica of history.
If the historical script continues to be copied verbatim:
2025-2026 bear market: 360 days
So, this round of bear market is nearing its end.
Calculated based on cycle time,
Distance from the market's potential cyclical bottom,
Maybe only about 40 days remain.
Looking at the signals from the long-term rainbow valuation chart:
The 2015 cycle is the bottom ✅
The 2018 cycle is the main bottom ✅
The 2022 cycle is the bottom ✅
Will 2026 repeat itself?
Historically, every round of BTC has bottomed out at the long-term undervaluation range, officially starting the next major bull market.
Most people in the market are still struggling with this:
"Will the drop continue to plunge? Where exactly is the bottom? ”
But the real questions worth pondering have changed:
If these few dozen days are the bottom window of this cycle, are your bullets ready?
The most harmful thing in a bear market is never the drop itself.
It's that during the downturn, you don't have cash in hand;
It's panic at the bottom and cutting losses to exit;
By the time the bull market arrives, the positions are no longer in place.
Cycles will not be 100% mechanically replicated; institutional ETFs and macro rate cuts will disrupt the timeline, but the lessons history offers are worth heeding.
Opportunities always belong to those who hold chips in their hands and patiently wait for the bottom.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 #黄金维持高位, the Bank of Korea returned to the market
#标普盈利超预期, why is Wall Street still cautious? #加密估值逻辑撕裂, are the two types of coins completely diverging?
I'm Lao K, and the valuation benchmark in the crypto market is becoming fragmented.
Recently, several institutional research reports have offered a view: the market is abandoning pure story hype and gradually shifting toward real returns and on-chain revenue capability. This valuation system is especially well-suited for ETH, storage tokens, and DeFi sectors.
Ethereum relies on gas fees and staking output to form stable on-chain cash flow, storage sector tokens generate continuous protocol revenue through real storage business, and DeFi leaders also receive a steady stream of transaction fees. Such projects can apply traditional market cash flow and revenue models to measure valuation levels.
But the valuation logic for $BTC is a completely different system.
Bitcoin itself does not generate protocol revenue, nor does it distribute dividends or fees to users who hold it, so there is no measurable cash flow. Its value foundation comes from the scarcity of total supply, spot ETF capital inflows and outflows, the global macro interest rate environment, and the consensus narrative of digital stored value. Institutional reports also admit that for BTC, a cashless asset, the cash flow valuation model is not suitable, relying on existing consensus and capital flow pricing.
The real key factor influencing BTC's short-term price is the inflow and outflow of funds from spot ETFs. The previous wave of continuous net ETF inflows directly pushed Bitcoin to rebound from around 61,000 to 64,000, which is the most direct reality portrayal.
Going forward, the market will show clear differentiation:
ETH, DeFi, and storage sectors will increasingly approach traditional enterprises, focusing on revenue, profits, and real on-chain cash flow. Underperforming tokens will be ruthlessly abandoned by capital.
BTC will continue to play the role of digital gold, anchored in pricing to scarcity, institutional allocation positions, US Treasuries, and rate-cutting cycles.
There is no one replacing the other; they simply follow completely different valuation paths.
The tracks are different, the pricing logic is different, but they will exist in parallel.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#加密估值转向收入, how is BTC priced? #Cloudflare推AI钱包, the competition for machine payment entry points
#消费动能转弱, September policy remains constrained by inflation 📊 The macro environment is quietly shifting, and the crypto market seems to be standing at a new node. The recently released CPI data met market expectations; this result did not trigger an excessive chain reaction, but instead provided some room to ease the long-standing tension. Inflation is no longer out of control, meaning the tail risks of aggressive rate hikes are gradually being absorbed by the market, and funds are reassessing the cost-effectiveness of risk assets. For the crypto market, this kind of macro-level "mild confirmation" makes more sense than a stunning downturn—because it sets the boundary of uncertainty. Meanwhile, signals from Washington are equally intriguing. The SEC and CFTC have successively released new moves related to the regulatory framework for crypto assets. Although the details have not yet been fully finalized, the direction is clearly more constructive than before. This shift has shaken the market's stereotypical narrative of a "regulatory siege," and the outline of the compliance path is beginning to become faint. For institutions, the real obstacle has never been price fluctuations, but the ambiguous areas in compliance judgment. When this fog begins to lift, the willingness of capital to enter will increase significantly. More importantly, the actions of traditional financial markets are becoming more concrete. Market information shows that more institutional clients in TradFi are increasing their exposure to BTC, ETH, and SOL. This is not something that short-term speculation can explain; it is more like a strategy for the next stage of the cycle. Leading assets have once again become the hub of liquidity for funds, and the entry of large funds often precedes price narratives, only after which market attention increases🚀 $CORE/USDT Price Prediction Post
Current Price: $CORE 0.02036 (+0.84%)
24h High / Low: $CORE 0.02078 / $0.01929
Market Overview
CORE is showing a steady recovery trend on the 15-minute chart, climbing gradually after hitting a local floor near $0.01987. The price is currently holding above all key short-term moving averages—MA5 ($0.02031), MA10 ($0.02024), and MA20 ($0.02017)—showing consistent buying support and a push toward testing higher levels.
Key Levels to Watch
* Resistance: $0.02040 & $0.02078
* Support: $0.02017 & $0.01987
Price Targets & Scenarios
* Bullish Scenario (Breakout):
If buyers push and hold above the $0.02040 level, expect momentum to carry CORE toward $0.02060, with a strong chance to retest the 24-hour high at $0.02078.
* Bearish Scenario (Retracement):
If the price fails to break past $0.02040, a small pullback toward the moving average support zone around $0.02017 is likely before the next attempt upward.
Are you expecting $CORE to clear $0.02040 for a rally, or will it dip back down to retest support first?$CORE First, the capital and chips are different. BTC is mainly long-term holdings, and driving the price upward requires large incremental funds; ETH is more active in the short term and contract funds; short stop-losses during rebounds tend to amplify the market, and with equal funds, it is more flexible. Second, narrative catalyzes differentiation. BTC relies on macro news and currently lacks new positive drivers; ETH ecosystem hotspots continue to emerge, with tracks like Hyperliquid continuously attracting short-term capital inflows. Furthermore, there is a gap in technological momentum. BTC is under pressure near the 63,800 moving average, with daily upward momentum weakening and heavy trapped positions above; ETH has completed a low support test, making short-term rebound conditions relatively better. ⚠️ High elasticity comes with high volatility. If the market weakens, ETH will pull back even more, and the dynamics could reverse at any time for $BTC $ETH $OKB #BTC成交萎缩. Whether ETF buying can rebound #消费动能转弱depends on whether September policy will remain subject to inflationETH· SOL high-leverage positions, there's nowhere to hide yet. In 100x leveraged fully leveraged positions, the real risk isn't the direction, but the moment when you can't bear it even if the direction is right. The original text is a trader's practical observation of holding spot and derivative positions in ETH and SOL. The key facts are as follows. - The assets held are two long positions: ETH and SOL. - Currently, both positions are in profit ranges based on valuation profit or loss. - The entry method is full 100x leverage, aiming for a short-term rebound. - He has past experience trading so-called junk coins such as APR, ROBO, and BEAT, and this position was set as a strategy in contrast. - The author trusts the recovery potential of major coins after a sharp drop and the ecosystem foundation, but simultaneously remains wary of the risk of high-multiplier liquidations. In this article, the real market signal is not optimism, but the fact that high-multiplier long positions are already alive. The period when funding fees remain positive in the ETH and SOL futures markets creates an environment where short squeezes can occur.#BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound?
Last night, I watched the market until 3 a.m., glanced at the candlestick and then at my account, almost laughing at myself.
Let's first talk about what the current market looks like. BTC broke through 63,000 this morning, but it was just so-so, up 0.19% intraday—such a gain last year I wouldn't even bother to check the app. OKX data shows that BTC once dropped below 63,000 in the early morning, hitting a low near 62,995. All weekend, BTC was stuck in the narrow range between 62,500 and 63,000, and volatility had shrunk to its lowest point in months. The people at 10x Research said trading volume had dropped to just below the peak of last October's flash crash. I checked my own orders—the depth was as thin as paper, and a single order that wasn't too big could push the price by dozens of dollars.
Now, let's talk about ETFs—this is where the real headaches lie. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about 390 million, with four out of five trading days. On Monday, 144 million was outflowed; on Thursday, 131 million; on Friday, 57.63 million—just on Tuesday, 4.89 million was symbolically inflowed. Keep in mind, the week before last, 850 million was flowed in—that's a pretty fast turnaround.
But here's the interesting part—although funds are flowing out, BTC ETF trading volume last week actually hit the second lowest since October 2024. This is quite paradoxical: there is a lot of outflow, but thin trading volume—what does that mean? It means there aren't that many people wanting to sell, but even fewer want to buy, making the whole market seem to freeze.
It's interesting to see it on-chain. Net exchange flow dropped from +3,507 BTC on August 14 to +683 BTC on August 15, a drop of nearly 81%—fewer people are depositing coins on exchanges, and selling pressure is indeed easing. But the problem is that exchange reserves have broken above the 200-day moving average, breaking a downward trend that has lasted over two years. More BTC can be sold anytime on exchanges, which is not a good sign. The funding rate also dropped from 0.0228 to 0.00465, a drop of nearly 80%—the premium paid by long positions is much lower, but open interest has barely moved. Leverage costs have decreased but volume hasn't, indicating everyone is still holding on, no liquidations or liquidations, all waiting for direction.
So, can ETF buying really recover? To be honest, I think there is a short-term hazard.
First, ETF funds are now playing differently than before. In early August, 1.1 billion yuan flowed in, BTC only hit 65,000, then was pushed back again. ETF funds now seem more like buying at the bottom rather than pushing upward—if a pile of money comes in and the price doesn't rise, it means selling pressure is still there, and some are selling off on ETF buying.
Second, the once most stable buy-side strategy has been the seller for four consecutive weeks. This stock used to be a belief-type player who only bought and never sold, but now it's starting to reduce holdings. How strong can market confidence really be?
Third, stablecoins are still continuously flowing out of the market. What buying opportunities are expected to rebound if off-exchange funds don't flow in?
But on the other hand, this kind of sideways trading volume has been seen in history. The market sentiment fear index has dropped to 31, retail investors are all discussing US stocks and gold, and the market is barely mentioned. This kind of ignorance might actually be the time for long-term players to keep an eye on it—of course, provided you can endure the torment of continuing to bottom out.
In the short term, whether it can hold the 63,000 level is key. The next key is to watch 62,600; breaking it could lead to 61,800. Above, the 63,500 to 64,000 range is full of resistance. In a market with no volume, talking about a breakout is just a scam.
Right now, I'm just taking a laid-back position—if it drops a lot, I catch a bit, then it bounces up and sells a bit, just to make some money off my boxed lunch. Anyway, chasing rises and selling down in this market is basically giving the exchange a fee.
Brothers, what do you think about this position? Is it the bulls holding out the bears, or is it stepping down again?
$BTC #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? BTC trading volume has shrunk, but can ETF buying reignite?
BTC's real problem now isn't how much it has dropped, but the lack of funds willing to take the initiative at the current level.
After this pullback, although prices haven't plunged rapidly for now, trading volume has clearly contracted. Many people interpret this trend as "selling pressure exhaustion," but I think we need to be more cautious—shrinking volume can mean no one wants to sell, or it could mean no one wants to buy.
And I believe the key to determining the difference between the two is ETF funds.
Past rounds have repeatedly proven that spot ETFs are not just sentiment indicators; they act more like incremental liquidity channels connecting traditional capital and the BTC spot market. When ETFs continue to have net inflows, the market can digest profit-taking at high levels; But once inflows slow or even turn into net outflows, BTC relying solely on leveraged funds on the exchange makes it difficult to maintain a sustained upward trend.
So now, I won't judge the correction as the end just because of one or two rebound candlesticks.
I focus more on two signals:
First, can trading volume increase simultaneously when prices rebound?
If prices rise and trading volume continues to shrink, this rebound feels more like short covering rather than new capital entering the market.
Second, whether the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows again.
The significance of large single-day inflows is limited; what truly changes market structure is the consecutive days of capital inflows. If ETFs form stable buying once again and BTC can reclaim previously breached areas, then this round of shrinking volume is more likely to be chip accumulation rather than a downward relay.
At this stage, rather than guessing the bottom, it's better to observe whether the funds are returning.
Price can create sentiment, but what truly drives a trend is always marginal buying.
If BTC rebounds next, do you care more about technical factors returning to key levels, or will ETF funds strengthen again?The next shock will be different
In early August, the unwinding of carry trades put pressure on $BTC and $ETH, but their leverage structures showed different reactions.
$BTC driven by futures and institutional capital, deleveraging tends to be faster and more orderly.
$ETH are more sensitive to DeFi, liquidation, and on-chain leverage. Price drops could trigger a new round of sell-offs.
For $ETH, it's important to pay attention not only to candlestick charts but also to TVL, funding rates, and on-chain activity to identify the real pressure.