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In March 2024, Ethereum 4100, Bitcoin 73000
In December 2024, Ethereum reached 4100, Bitcoin 110,000
Why did Ethereum weld at 4100 during both bull market peaks?
In the crypto world, when a price breaks to a new high, three principles generally must be followed:
1. There must be a strong enough new story to carry on, and it can be proven successful
2. The shakeout was clean enough, and the drop was deep enough
3. No large-amount unlocks
In 2024, Ethereum met two criteria, but its biggest drawback was the "lack of new stories."
The bull market before March:
Ethereum's mainstream narrative is L2, and people believe that the prosperity of L2s will accelerate ETH deflation. However, L2s have not brought the expected prosperity, because Solana is good enough in terms of performance and fees
The new narrative is not successful enough
The December bull market:
Not even the story is left—it's just a pure narrative vacuum
Although ETFs exist, institutions are not interested
After the Dencun upgrade, Ethereum's deflationary narrative failed
Daily burns have plummeted from a few thousand per day to as low as 50-70, turning ETH into moderate inflation
L1 revenue fell from over $600 million in March to $120 million in May, while L2s took 95-99% of transaction fees
Old narratives are disproven, and there is no new story to pick up
Let's look at Solana during the same period
1. Thorough shakeout: from $260 in 2021 to $8.13 in 2022, -97%
2. No large unlocks: The large unlock will happen in 2025
3. New stories are strong enough: memecoin cycles, and they are exclusive
So Solana rose from $8 in 2022 to a historic high of $290 in January 2025
Any token rise needs to be driven by narrative; this is the first principle of a crypto bull market
Back to the present, RWA is the only narrative in a bear market that has grown against the trend
And it's the only narrative where traditional finance is willing to invest real money. The leaders are all names like BlackRock, Franklin, Circle, Ondo, and WisdomTree.
The ones who can carry this story are ETH, leading DeFi, and BNB
They currently basically meet three principles:
1. Shakeout clean: The stock has dropped about 70%.
2. No large unlocks: Uni Aave's DeFi leader has long been fully unlocked
3. New narrative inheritance: RWA+ institutional layout这周科技巨头财报密集轰炸，画风却很分裂。 微软和亚马逊，云业务全线爆发。AWS二季度营收422亿美元，同比增长37%，是18个季度以来最快；Azure更猛，同比增速43%，全财年首次突破1000亿美元。两家股价财报后都是大涨，亚马逊盘后一度涨超9%，微软涨了8%。 Meta的财报数字其实也不差——营收608亿美元，创历史新高，广告收入593亿美元同样超预期。但股价财报后暴跌近8%，盘中一度跌到10%。 问题出在哪？不是营收，也不是利润。 而是Meta的云服务是自己用，Meta大模型的盈利能力，市场还不认可。 微软和亚马逊的云服务则是卖给别人用，账面收入高表示钱赚回来了。但是微软和亚马逊的云业务涨得这么猛，靠的是谁买单？ 微软今年1月披露过，自家6250亿美元的商业剩余履约义务（RPO，可以理解成"已签约但还没兑现的订单"）里，大约45%都绑定着OpenAI一家公司。本季度这个RPO总额又同比暴涨84%到6780亿美元，意味着OpenAI这一家客户在微软账本上的分量只会越来越重。 亚马逊这边相对分散一些，AWS的AI算力客户里OpenAI、Anthropic、Meta都有，但今年一季度亚📊 $SOL Liquidation Flash Report (July 31)
According to liquidation data, short sellers be careful, the dog whales are grinding you down...
Liquidations in the past 1 hour totaled approximately $790,700
Long liquidations about $120,500
Short liquidations about $670,200
Liquidations in the past 4 hours totaled approximately $951,500
Long liquidations about $131,200
Short liquidations about $820,200
Liquidations in the past 12 hours totaled approximately $1,158,200
Long liquidations about $187,700
Short liquidations about $970,400
Liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled approximately $1,963,900
Long liquidations about $386,000
Short liquidations about $1,577,900
From the $SOL liquidation data, short liquidations have crushed longs, shorts have been continuously liquidated on a large scale, the market shows a one-sided extreme short squeeze pattern, with 24-hour short liquidations four times that of longs. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get liquidated.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 31
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative," but rather the "efficiency of spending" — from the Fed's internal split to the contrasting fortunes of Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is forming.
🏛️ Fed's three votes for rate hike: an internal split unseen in a decade
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Cleveland Fed's Harker, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Logan all advocated a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The Dow promptly plunged over 1100 points. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to judging whether action will be taken in September.
📈 Microsoft cuts capital expenditure against the trend: after-hours up 8.5%
Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results: revenue of $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue up 43% year-over-year, the fastest growth in four years; full-year Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time.
What truly ignited the market was the capital expenditure guidance — lowered from the previous estimate of about $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock price surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google's stock plummeting due to increased spending guidance, Microsoft's "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta's record revenue but plummeting stock: the cost of AI's money-burning model
Meta reported on the same day: revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. But net profit fell 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion; capital expenditure floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow only $784 million, a nearly four-year low. After-hours stock price once plunged over 10%.
On the same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative," but the "efficiency of spending." The rare internal split at the Fed signals policy path uncertainty; Microsoft’s capital expenditure cut triggered a stock surge, signaling that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more favored than "increasing spending"; Meta’s record revenue but stock plunge shows the market punishes narratives with input but no return. The old logic is collapsing, and new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌
#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% 1. The macro picture: From gaming GPUs to AI infrastructure This is no longer the story of a new line of graphics cards. Actual data shows an unprecedented structural shift: the share of $XNVDA's gaming revenue has fallen from about 35% (2022) to only about 8% in fiscal 2026. There are reports that $XNVDA may not launch any new gaming GPUs in 2026 — the first time in nearly 30 years. The RTX 50 Super series is said to have completed the design but is "stacked" to prioritize resources$SOL 74.8, still above, ninth time.
Previously, I said Qian was running and couldn't hold on, and I was proven wrong eight times. Ninth time, the 4-hour trend finally reversed, but the 1-hour trend was halted and returned to the old ways.
I can't figure it out—every time I start to get a little better, I get stuck.
Within three hours, there were twelve stocks in stock, all negative, not a single one flipped. Taker sells more than buys, long-short ratio drops to 0.8, half of borrowers have left, and all leverage has been removed. ETFs are hyped up, but money doesn't come in.
The 4-hour market is indeed different this time; five bullish candlesticks pushed up, and the trend has turned positive. But the 1-hour solder holds, takers are still selling, whale positions are decreasing, and open interest is shrinking. Prices may rise, but no one chases them, and there's no relay.
Outside, the buzz was lively, but there was no real thing on the market. The fluctuations actually grew louder, but the direction was not clear. If you're bullish, the money isn't coming back; if you're bearish, it's stuck and won't come off. I think that's it, waiting for direction.
#sol $SOL$SUI The story of this "next-generation high-performance public blockchain" has been told for too long. While the story is well told, its implementation and value capture have lagged behind.
$SUI Early valuations were extremely high, with relatively low circulating supply, resulting in a long-term inflated total circulation market cap (FDV). Subsequently, a large number of unlocks (team, investors, ecosystem funds) have brought sustained selling pressure. Many early participants have already cashed out and exited, while retail investors have become the ones to take over.
Promoting "parallel execution," "high TPS," and "low latency" is very appealing, but truly effective high-quality apps and TVL growth are not prominent. Many projects are only nominal or short-term volume boosts, with a clear lack of user retention and genuine transaction demand. Compared to competitors like Solana and Base, Sui's ecosystem activity still lags significantly.
Competition is fierce and highly homogeneous, with the high-performance L1 sector already crowded (Solana, Aptos, Sei, Monad, etc.). Although Sui's Move language and object model differ, migration costs for ordinary users and developers are high, and network effects are far from formed. If technological advantages cannot be converted into users and capital, it will ultimately be just a "technology demo."
Early nodes and validators are relatively concentrated, and teams and core contributors have a significant impact on the network. There is a gap between decentralized narratives and actual control.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
According to preliminary data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on July 30, 2026, the U.S. economy presents a complex picture of "strong domestic demand but slowing book growth": second-quarter GDP annualized growth of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, lower than the first quarter's 2.1% and the market expectation of 2.0%; Meanwhile, the PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, marking the first monthly decline since April 2020.
📉 GDP growth slows: net exports and inventories are the main reasons
GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter, mainly dragged down by the following factors:
Net exports dragged down by about 1 percentage point: imports surged (quarter-on-quarter adjusted year-on-year 11.5%), while export growth slowed from 10.9% in Q1 to 4.5%, with the widening trade deficit being the biggest drag.
Inventory changes dragged down by about 0.67-0.7 percentage points: companies actively consumed inventory during wartime.
Reduced government spending: The decline in federal spending also weighs on GDP.
🛒 Domestic demand is highly resilient: consumption and investment are strong
Despite the weak book data, "final sales to domestic private sectors," which measures domestic demand, grew 3.9% in the second quarter, the fastest growth rate since early 2023.
Strong consumption: Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the economy, surged by 3.2% (only 0.5% in the first quarter). This is thanks to large-scale additional tax rebates, a temporary decline in oil prices, and low unemployment rates.
Investment remained strong: Non-residential fixed asset investment grew by 8.4%. Among them, although AI-related investment growth has slowed, it remains high, while non-AI investments in industries and transportation equipment have accelerated significantly.
📉 PCE turned negative month-on-month: Falling energy prices were the main reason
As the Fed's most closely watched inflation gauge, the June PCE data has the following characteristics:
Overall PCE: Month-on-month -0.1%, year-on-year fell from 4.1% to 3.7%.
Core PCE (excluding food and energy): +0.1% quarter-on-quarter (below the expected 0.2%), 3.3% year-on-year.
The core reason for PCE turning negative is the sharp drop in energy prices. In June, energy commodity and services prices plunged 5.9% month-on-month, gasoline prices fell 9.2%, directly driving the overall PCE downward. However, core PCE (excluding energy) remains strong, with a year-on-year level of 3.3% still well above the Fed's 2% target.
⚖️ Market response and policy implications
Market response was positive: after the data release, US stock index futures rose, with the Nasdaq up 2.78%; Gold futures rose above $4,162.80 per ounce; 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields retreated.
The Fed held steady: The day before the data release, the Fed voted 9:3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, but internal divisions widened (three advocated rate hikes).
The stickiness of core PCE makes it difficult for the Fed to switch to easing just because the overall PCE turned negative in a single month. The key to future policy directions lies in energy price trends and whether strong domestic demand will once again push inflation higher.
💎 Summary
Currently, the U.S. economy is experiencing a complex situation of "inconsistency" inside and out:
On the surface: GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, seemingly cooling the economy.
Internal: Consumption and investment grew strongly, with ample domestic demand momentum.
Inflation: Overall PCE turned negative due to falling energy prices, but core PCE remained firm.
This "report card" paints a picture of a U.S. economy with strong domestic demand but facing dual uncertainties related to war (energy) and policy (tariffs, the Federal Reserve). $BTC $ETH Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous inflows, yet BTC still can't rally—where exactly is this money going?
Recently, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for the third consecutive week, but BTC remains stuck around $64,000, unable to break above $67,000. Even more paradoxically, about $465 million flowed out in the latter half of last week, most of which came from BlackRock's IBIT.
This makes me increasingly suspect one thing:
ETF inflows no longer necessarily mean BTC will immediately rise.
While some are buying through ETFs, on the other side miners, whales, and holders trapped at high prices may be continuously selling. The new funds are just absorbing the sell pressure, not truly driving a breakout.
In the past, seeing ETF inflows was everyone's first sign of bullishness.
Now, what I want to see more is: after the money comes in, can BTC actually rise?
If continuous inflows can't push the price, it means the hidden selling pressure in the market is even heavier than we see.
I might be wrong, but I really can't trust calling a bull market just by looking at ETF data now.
Do you think big players are quietly accumulating, or is someone secretly offloading while ETFs are taking the position?
$BTC #BitcoinETF #贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟 #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
PCE turned negative month-on-month + GDP dropped to 1.5%, and the Fed is truly under fire this time
Many people shout "Inflation is gone, the bull market is here" just from the headline, but when you break it down, it's all drama:
Overall PCE in June fell 0.1% month-on-month (the first negative growth since 2020), dropping from 4.1% to 3.7% year-on-year
Core PCE was only +0.1% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year—still far from the 2% target
Q2 GDP annualized 1.5%, below the expected 2.1%, but private final sales actually accelerated to 3.9%, meaning consumer + AI investment did not collapse at all
On the surface, "slowing growth + cooling inflation" looks like a soft landing;
The underlying theme is "the illusion of inflation caused by energy drops + domestic demand is still hot"—does the Fed dare to loosen its grip? I dare not.
What it means for crypto:
Short-term rate hike expectations have given back → US dollars and weakened gold, risk assets are taking a breather→ BTC and ETH can rebound on sentiment, but don't treat it as the start of an easing cycle. A real turnaround will come when core PCE breaks 3% year-on-year or the nonfarm payroll cracks down.
This time, are you using rebounds to reduce positions / buying spot on dips / playing dead without moving?🚨 The market just got two completely different messages—and one of them is likely wrong.
Cooling inflation should be good news, but the reaction wasn't that simple.
June PCE came in softer than expected, pointing to easing price pressures. At the same time, GDP missed forecasts, while underlying consumer demand remained surprisingly resilient.
That's left investors caught between two narratives:
📉 Softer inflation supports the case for easier policy.
📈 Strong demand gives the Fed a reason to stay cautious.
The split is showing up across markets.
Stocks and crypto welcomed the data, with $BTC holding firm and equities pushing higher.
Bonds told a different story, sending long-term Treasury yields to fresh highs as investors questioned whether inflation is truly under control.
Two markets. Two very different outlooks.
The next inflation report could decide which one has been reading the economy correctly.
When stocks and bonds disagree, which market do you think gets it right? 👇
#DailyOrbit A. The lowest point of Bitcoin in the 2026 bear market?
126208 - (126208 - 15443) * 0.618 = 57755 (which is exactly the lowest point of the entire first half of the year, the actual is 57758, with an error of only 3 points). If 57755 is not broken, this will be the absolute annual low. Around 57,000 is a super strong support; by the end of the year, I will mark the corresponding indicators for review. Note: 15443 is the lowest point of the 2022 bear market.
B. Expected highest point of Bitcoin bull market in 2028-2029?
BTC third halving cycle (2018-2021) bull market peak: 3621 + 66000 * 1 = 69,621
BTC fourth halving cycle (2022-2025) bull market peak: 15443 + 66000 * 1.618 = 122,231 (actual 126208, error about 4k points)
BTC fifth halving cycle (2026-2029) peak forecast:
2026 low + 66000 * 2, assuming the 2026 low is 57758, then the next bull market peak is 57758 + 66000 * 2 = 189,758
So after institutions are established in 2024-2025, the next Bitcoin bull market's multiplier will no longer exceed 4 times.
C. Data validation for not exceeding 4 times:
2018-2021 peak/low: 69198 / 3621 = 19.11
2022-2026 peak/low: 126208 / 15443 = 8.173
Threshold of multiplier difference between the first two bear-bull cycles: 19.11 / 8.17 = 2.339
So according to this pattern, the next bull market peak/low multiplier will be or close to: 8.173 / 2.339 = 3.494 (not exceeding 4 times aligns with objective rules)
Based on the above calculation, the next Bitcoin peak is 189,758, the low is 57,755, and 189,758 / 57,755 = 3.28, which is basically close to 3.494. So this error is very small.When I used the Luoyang shovel to probe into the sedimentary layers of Q2 2026, the golden chain that once tightly bound Wall Street and cryptography on the ancient tomb mural actually exploded with a chilling 'Ruins Fault' between the 0.12 and 0.21 numerical cross-sections.
Looking back to the fourth quarter of 2025, the high correlation of 0.58 measured in the soil was still comparable to the blind loyalty of ancient Roman vassal states to their suzerain state. However, just a few months later, the linkage between BTC and the S&P 500 and even the Nasdaq index dropped to its lowest point in nearly a decade. This sudden stratigraphic phenomenon split the gold diggers weaving through the secret passage into two factions, their arguing nearly shattering the ancient chamber.
The 'decoupling camp' raiders held torches and shouted for 'civilization reborn,' pointing to the massive influx of funds from ETFs into the underworld, asserting that institutional asset allocations have long erased the marks of the past, reshaping BTC's carbon-14 dating method, and permanently stripping this digital golden statue from the altar of the U.S. stock market.
However, in the eyes of an archaeologist like me, who has witnessed the rise and fall of dynasties, is this seemingly sacred independent statue filled with the meticulously polished [forged antiques] that speculators have crafted to conceal liquidity withdrawal?
The ballad of history never writes a new script; it simply reshapes the same clay jar with different clay.
The sober warning from the 'Illusionists' was immediately fulfilled amid the sounds of collapse—when chip stocks triggered a major tech sector crash this week and BTC plunged nearly $3,000 in a single day, the shadow of traditional capital fear still hung over the vault of the tomb. Those grand narratives claiming complete decoupling become as fragile as a millennium-old silk manuscript at a moment's sudden contraction of macro risk appetite.
As long as the fiat currency empire's printing press is still running, as long as the Federal Reserve's interest gate still controls the level of all human capital, that liquidity 'curse' that binds all high-risk assets will never vanish overnight.
Even US token stocks like $XMSFT, which quietly circulate in the underground river, experience every pulsive price jump and deep insight silently replicating the genetic code and bloodline imprint of the traditional US stock market.
The tomb robbers only saw loose soil on the surface and were eager to claim they had discovered a new world; Archaeologists have long seen through the ashes and debris of countless civilizations: in the face of the real tide receding and systematic harvesting, no god is immune to the mundane.
#BTCNasdaqDecouples Could anyone have been scammed this morning? With the rate this high, how could they dare to go for more? SanDisk's rapid rise in negative tariffs is not caused by short positions opening but by long positions closing. Normally, a rise in negative tariffs would push the tariff up, but SanDisk is the opposite, indicating the bulls are retreating while the remaining bears can't push it out#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？
The two giant companies' earnings reports released on the same night evoke mixed feelings. Both are all in on AI, yet their results are worlds apart, prompting the market to reassess the true substance of the AI narrative.
Microsoft has exceeded expectations across the board. Azure cloud business's annualized revenue has historically surpassed $100 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate hitting 43%. Copilot paid seats have exceeded 30 million. AI investments have concretely translated into enterprise orders, revenue, and profits. Although capital expenditures remain substantial, a clear business loop is now visible. Computing power is no longer just a cost-burning item. The post-market stock surge is the market's most direct feedback. While investing heavily in computing power infrastructure, Microsoft is simultaneously generating cash flow, and investors are willing to pay for this tangible AI story.
In contrast, Meta's situation is much more delicate. Its Q2 revenue did grow, and AI optimization did strengthen its advertising business, but the Q3 revenue guidance fell below market consensus, dampening enthusiasm. The most worrying aspect is cash flow. Under massive AI infrastructure investments, free cash flow plummeted 91% year-over-year, shrinking to a very low level. Meta still maintains a high capital expenditure plan of $130–145 billion, continuing to aggressively scale computing power. So far, AI mainly empowers its core advertising business and has yet to generate a second growth curve. Massive investments have yet to show corresponding returns, and the capital market's tolerance for "burning cash to bet on the future" is rapidly declining.
This situation brings an important change to the market. Previously, the logic was simple: whoever invested more in GPUs would dominate the AI era. Now, the trend has shifted. People no longer just look at the scale of investment but care more about when the money spent will monetize. Even within the AI sector, clear differentiation is emerging. Entities that can convert AI into revenue and profit will attract capital preference, while those with grand narratives but delayed returns will face valuation cuts.
This divergence among U.S. tech giants will also indirectly affect the crypto market. AI-themed tokens previously followed the U.S. AI stock rally in waves, but going forward, capital will become more selective, only favoring projects with actual implementation progress. AI coins that rely solely on storytelling and hype will find it increasingly difficult to attract funding.
When participating in the market, we must learn to discern and not rush in just because of the word AI. No matter how grand the narrative, it ultimately comes down to real revenue and output. When the tide recedes, the key to how far one can go is whether value can truly be realized.
$META $MSFT Cooling inflation just landed in the middle of a Fed that's still leaning hawkish, and the market can't agree on what it means.
US June PCE fell 0.1% month over month, its first negative monthly print since 2020. Core PCE rose just 0.1% for the month, below the 0.2% expected, holding at 3.3% year over year. The headline annual rate eased from 4.1% to 3.7%. On paper, that's clean disinflation.
Then the growth data split the room:
· Advance Q2 GDP grew just 1.5% annualized, well short of the 2.1% forecast
· But real final sales to private domestic buyers rose 3.9%, the strongest since early 2023
· Jobless claims ticked up to 197,000
So the headline says "slowing," the internals say "demand is fine." The drag came from government spending and inventories, not the consumer. That's the whole tension.
This didn't happen in a vacuum. The Fed just held rates at 3.5-3.75% for the sixth straight meeting, a 9-3 vote, with three officials pushing for a hike. Softer prices weaken the case for more tightening, but sticky domestic demand keeps those hawks in the room. Odds of a September hike now sit near 64%, up from 56% a week ago.
Here's the part most people are skipping. While crypto and stocks read the soft data as relief, the bond market did the opposite. The 30-year Treasury yield pushed above 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, a signal that long-term investors doubt the Fed is doing enough to contain inflation.
Two markets, two verdicts:
· Bitcoin firmed toward $65,000 and the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, pricing in relief
· Long-end yields spiked, pricing in inflation risk
They can't both be right for long. And one negative PCE print isn't a trend yet, so July's data gets the final say on whether this is real disinflation or just an oil-driven blip.
When stocks and bonds are telling you opposite stories, which one do you trust to call the next move?
#SoftPCEStrongDemand 🤬 Family!! What exactly happened yesterday??? Why did it suddenly pull so fast!!
I'm completely stunned!!
I was holding a good short position, but then a big bullish candlestick suddenly struck me in the middle of the night!!
It jumped straight from 999 to 1436, a full 400 points!!
Who could withstand that???
📊 The end of this order:
Direction: Empty 🐻
Average opening price 1,234.38
Average closing price 1,285.53
Leverage 15x isolated margin
Final profit: -4.69 USDT
Final yield -64.14%
The market was once well-stocked, but suddenly it was aggressively pumped up in the middle of the night,
They directly cut my stop-loss and then kept pushing up!!
If I had cut my losses later, I would have lost even more......
This is really incomprehensible!!
📰 It was only after seeing the news today that I realized:
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
So that's how it is!!
These two major data points directly changed market expectations:
1. PCE turns negative month-on-month—inflation has cooled!! This indicates that the Fed no longer needs to raise rates, and may even cut rates earlier!!
2. GDP growth slows to 1.5%—the economy is not overheating, expectations for a soft landing are increasing, and market risk appetite is picking up!!
Together, these two figures provide a major boost for risk assets!!
Inflation has dropped, the economy is still growing but not booming, so the Fed can rest assured about cutting rates.
Funds flowed directly back into technology stocks and the semiconductor sector!!
😫 This loss is actually not unfair:
Looking back, I did overlook the macro risks.
1. Only knew to go with the trend and shorted, without paying attention to macro data timing — if I had known in advance that PCE and GDP data would be released, I would definitely have reduced my position or taken a wait-and-see approach
2. Only focusing on candlesticks without paying attention to the broader environment — technical aspects are only superficial; macro factors are the fundamental force determining trends
3. Stop-loss set too close — At this level of rebound, 15x leverage simply can't hold up; either set a larger stop-loss or lighten the position
💡 The lesson this wave taught me:
1. Be cautious before releasing macro data — Remember the release times for big data like PCE, GDP, and non-farm payrolls, and manage your positions in advance
2. Going with the trend is true, but you must step on the right rhythm—the right direction doesn't guarantee profit, and the wrong timing will still get you washed out
3. Always leave yourself room — position management is more important than direction judgment; only by staying alive can you have a chance
😔 But I won't give up:
I lost this single one, but I accepted it.
It's not that the direction is wrong, it's the wrong rhythm, or the risk isn't well controlled.
Every loss tells me:
This market is always more complex than you imagine.
You think you've seen the trend clearly, but in fact, you've only seen the tip of the iceberg.
📢 I want to say to my brothers:
When trading, you need to look at the technical side, the news side, and the macro side too.
Don't be like me, focusing only on the candlestick and ignoring the bigger picture.
PCE turning negative and GDP slowing down—data at this level,
It can change the entire market trend.
Next time, I'll remember to check the calendar in advance.
Next time, I'll remember to reduce my position before the data release.
Next time, I won't make the same mistake again.
🙏 This is a real loss, I admit it!!
But he refuses to admit defeat!!
Adjust your pace and keep fighting!!
Everyone, did you get blown up this round?
💬 Now, let's talk about this data:
PCE turned negative month-on-month, and honestly, this data is quite significant.
Cooling inflation means the Fed has more policy flexibility.
Previously, the market was worried about "higher for longer," but now that inflation has subsided and expectations for rate cuts are rising, it's great news for tech and semiconductor stocks.
Additionally, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, indicating the economy is making a soft landing with no recession risk.
With this combination of strategies, it's no wonder risk assets don't rise!!
So this rally isn't orchestrated by the manipulators—it's real cash flowing back.
I didn't understand it before, but now I do.
But even if you understand it, it's useless—the order has already exploded.
He could only blame himself for not preparing his homework in advance.
Next time, I won't make this mistake again.
💪 Keep settling and learning!!
$SNDK
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
The release of major data has formed a typical combination of cooling inflation and weakening economies, directly disrupting previous market bets on a rate hike in September, but it should not be simply interpreted as a one-sided bullish signal.
Core Facts Summary:
Overall, PCE turned negative month-on-month, and inflation temporarily declined; The annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 1.5%, significantly below expectations.
Key reminder: This PCE weakness is largely due to the oil price correction, with core PCE still well above the 2% target, and the stickiness of endogenous inflation has not completely disappeared. Meanwhile, consumption and corporate investment remain resilient; the economy is only slowing down and has not yet entered recession.
Short-term positive for risk assets
Expectations for rate hikes cooled rapidly, easing upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, easing concerns about aggressive tightening and providing sentiment buffers for risk assets like BTC and ETH.
There are medium- and long-term constraints
The Fed is caught in a policy gap: inflation hasn't fully reached its target, so it doesn't dare to switch to cutting rates easily; The economy continues to cool down, yet they dare not raise interest rates rashly.
This means liquidity is difficult to ease quickly, and the market is likely to shift from a one-sided trend to a data-driven wide oscillation.
My independent judgment:
Short-term sentiment has been restored, but don't immediately start a bullish frenzy.
This round of inflation decline is unpredictable; the Middle East geopolitical situation remains at a peak, and if oil prices rebound again, inflation expectations will quickly return.
Biggest misconception: Do not mistake a single month's negative PCE growth as a long-term inflation turning point.
After rebounding based on positive data, focus on monitoring sustainability.
In a volatile pattern, the continuity of the pulse market driven by news is limited, so it is not advisable to chase rallies at high levels. Continue to track changes in core services inflation and employment data.
Do you think this set of data will completely end the possibility of a Fed rate hike?#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
The US macro core data released last night showed a very contradictory economic situation: on one side, inflationary pressures continue to ease; on the other, economic growth has clearly cooled. This divergence has directly reshaped market rate hike expectations and caused various asset categories to perform in completely different markets. By combining a full set of official data and real-time market feedback, we break down the true fundamentals behind this round of data and the trading logic of subsequent assets.
Looking at the growth data that the core market is focused on, the preliminary annualized growth rate of US Q2 GDP was only 1.5%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 2.1% and also below the previous 2.1%, clearly signaling a slowdown in growth. However, breaking down the sub-structure shows that economic resilience has not completely disappeared. Excluding net exports, inventory, and government spending, domestic private final sales saw quarterly growth of 3.9%, the highest since the beginning of 2023.
Personal consumption data also showed divergence: June's monthly personal spending rate was 0.3%, in line with market expectations, but it fell significantly from the previous 0.9%, indicating a cooling of monthly consumption momentum. In the second quarter, the quarter-on-quarter rate of real personal expenditure reached 3.2%, far exceeding the market expectation of 2.3% and the previous value of 0.5%, indicating that real consumption demand remains strong after excluding inflation, though the short-term monthly pace has slowed, and the sustainability of future consumption still needs further observation. In addition, the current U.S. initial jobless claims data remains at a low level of 197,000, and the overall job market remains stable, which is the core support that the economy has not fully weakened.
Changes on the inflation side are the core highlight of this data and are also key factors influencing market sentiment. As the Fed's core inflation indicator, the US PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, marking the first monthly negative since 2020. The year-on-year increase also fell from 4.1% to 3.7%, with overall data in line with market expectations. The main reason for this PCE turning negative month-on-month is the sharp drop in oil prices following the US-Iran ceasefire in June, which drove energy inflation lower.
Core PCE data also continued to cool, with June core PCE up 0.1% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.2% and the previous 0.3%, marking the smallest monthly increase in seven months; Year-on-year data remained at 3.3%, slightly down from the previous 3.4%, just in line with market expectations and the second highest reading since October 2024. Currently, overall inflation remains close to twice the Fed's 2.0% policy target, so it is still too early to completely clear out inflation. On a quarterly basis, the annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of core PCE in Q2 was 3.4%, a significant drop from 4.4% in the previous quarter, indicating that the trend of cooling inflation is continuing.
This set of macroeconomic data, both hot and cold, has directly rewritten the Fed's rate hike pricing. Before the data was released, the market priced the probability of a rate hike in September at 68%, which fell back to 61.4% after the data was released. The previously priced 63% rate hike probability has now been fully recalibrated. Inflation continues to cool, greatly weakening the need for the Fed to raise interest rates immediately, but the strong resilience of domestic demand has provided some support for policy-tightening support, further intensifying the market tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
From a policy logic perspective, a single monthly data report is not enough to reverse the Fed's overall policy stance; the Fed's decision-making core relies on consecutive months of trending data and will not adjust policy pace based solely on monthly performance. Moreover, the Q2 GDP figures are only preliminary figures, and further data revisions will follow. Coupled with the July geopolitical tensions driving oil prices to rebound, CPI data for July and August still have room for volatility, and further data on inflation trends will require further data verification. Currently, the core market debate centers on whether this PCE turning negative month-on-month is the starting point for a downward inflation trend or a one-off phenomenon caused by short-term oil price fluctuations. The answer to this question requires the latest data from July to provide a definitive answer.
The overall fundamentals can be summarized as: the U.S. economy is slowing down, but it has not completely weakened. The core logic of current market trading has shifted from expectations of a soft landing to a market narrative of long-term high interest rates, rather than a recession logic. Inflation cooling is basically locked in no rate hikes in September, and the possibility of rate cuts within the year can be largely ruled out. The Fed will keep the current rate unchanged, which will become the benchmark policy choice going forward. Even though the Fed's July decision had three dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike, the release of this PCE data has basically dispelled market expectations for short-term rate hikes.
On the market front, the direct trigger for this round of US stock market rebounds is the cooling of interest rate hike expectations, but from a fundamental perspective, this rally can only be defined as a temporary rebound, and there is currently no basis for a trend reversal. With macro data hedging between bulls and bears, the market overall showed caution. The four major perpetual contracts—BTC, ETH, gold, and SNDK—all showed slight pulses after data release, but the gains quickly retraced, with limited overall volatility. Only SNDK showed a slight rebound, with gains of less than 1%, while the rest remained largely flat, fully reflecting a wait-and-see sentiment.
The short-term trends and key support and resistance levels for sub-assets are now very clear. In crypto assets, BTC's high of 65,000 today failed to break through on the advantage of inflation, indicating weak bullish confidence. The short-term resistance range is between 65,000 and 66,200, with key support levels below 64,800, 64,500, and 64,200. If it breaks below the core support, a slight pullback is likely to begin. ETH's trend is relatively weaker, with a 24-hour high of 1936 and resistance at 1950 and 2000. 1900 is a short-term core defense level, and if it falls, it is highly likely to test 1872.
Gold maintains a range-bound pattern in the short term, with the main trading range locked between 4078 and 4095.
SNDK, the storage sector stock, was the strongest performer after this round of data. The cooling interest rate expectations directly benefited its valuation recovery, and the intraday rebound was relatively firm.
Although BTC has bottom support from cooling interest rates, it lacks sufficient upward momentum, making it difficult to break out of a one-sided upward trend. The core reason is that the 10-year Treasury yield has not shown a significant decline; as long as long-term yields remain high, risk assets will find it difficult to sustain a strong rally.
The key points to watch in the market going forward are very clear: tomorrow night the initial jobless claims data will be released, and next week's nonfarm payroll data will be the biggest fundamental event of the period. Currently, the market will repeatedly switch between recession trading and rate-cutting trades, with volatility likely to rise, and overall market uncertainty persists.📊 $XRP Liquidation Flash Report (July 31)
According to liquidation data, short sellers be careful, the dog whales are grinding you down...
Liquidations in the past 1 hour totaled about $43,200
Long liquidations about $22,700
Short liquidations about $20,500
Liquidations in the past 4 hours totaled about $95,600
Long liquidations about $69,400
Short liquidations about $26,100
Liquidations in the past 12 hours totaled about $471,400
Long liquidations about $150,800
Short liquidations about $320,600
Liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled about $669,100
Long liquidations about $194,300
Short liquidations about $474,800
From the $XRP liquidation data, the recent long-short gap is not large, direction remains unclear; starting from 12 hours ago, short liquidations surged significantly, the short squeeze continues to escalate. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get liquidated.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 31
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative," but rather the "efficiency of spending" — from the Fed’s internal split to the contrasting fortunes of Microsoft and Meta, the old logic is collapsing and new pricing power is forming.
🏛️ Fed’s three votes for rate hike: a split unseen in a decade
In early July 30 Beijing time, the Fed voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Cleveland Fed’s Harker, Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari, and Dallas Fed’s Logan voted for a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned. The Dow plunged over 1100 points immediately. The PCE data to be released tonight will be key to judging whether action will be taken in September.
📈 Microsoft cuts capital expenditure against the trend: after-hours up 8.5%
Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results: revenue $90 billion, up 18% year-over-year; Azure revenue up 43% year-over-year, fastest growth in four years; full-year Azure revenue surpasses $100 billion for the first time.
What really ignited the market was the capex guidance — lowered from the previous estimate of about $190 billion to $175 billion. After-hours stock price surged 8.5%. Against the backdrop of Google’s stock plunge due to increased spending guidance, Microsoft’s "cost-cutting" signal gave investors a sigh of relief.
📉 Meta’s record revenue but plummeting stock: the cost of AI money burn
Meta reported on the same day: revenue $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. But net profit fell 14% year-over-year to $15.85 billion; capex floor raised from $125 billion to $130 billion; free cash flow only $784 million, a nearly four-year low. After-hours stock price once plunged over 10%.
On the same night, Microsoft rose 8.5% for "spending less," Meta fell 10% for "spending more."
💎 Summary
Three events point to the same turning point: the market no longer rewards the "burning money narrative," but the "efficiency of spending." The rare internal split at the Fed signals policy path uncertainty; Microsoft’s capex cut triggered a stock surge, signaling that "cost reduction" in AI investment is more favored than "increasing spending"; Meta’s record revenue but stock plunge shows the market punishes narratives with input but no return. The old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming. #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5%
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌
#微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% July 31 US-Japan Joint Intervention in the Yen Exchange Rate Incident
1. Core of the incident: The US and Japan rarely joined forces to suppress the depreciation of the yen. Japan implemented exchange rate intervention by buying yen and selling dollars, while the US used the "exchange rate check" tool in the foreign exchange market.
2. The essence of the exchange rate check: It is a "real inquiry" initiated by the central bank or treasury to major foreign exchange market makers, requiring them to quote buy and sell prices of the local currency at a specific scale. The process is not announced in advance and involves no actual orders, but it has strong deterrent power.
3. Source of deterrence
◦ Zero cost: No need to use real money, yet it can quickly send intervention signals to the global market, with an effect comparable to direct intervention involving hundreds of billions in funds.
◦ Signal significance: It means the authorities have completed intervention preparations and may implement them at any time. Meanwhile, the US has rarely directly intervened in exchange rates since 1995, so its participation effectively provides strategic endorsement for the joint intervention.
4. Impact of the incident
◦ Short term: The yen will experience a significant rebound due to short-covering, with an effect far stronger than Japan intervening alone.
◦ Long term: It cannot change the fundamental interest rate differential between the US and Japan (high rates in the Federal Reserve, low rates in Japan), and the intervention effect will gradually weaken as the market absorbs it.
5. Other related matters: South Korea also conducted exchange rate intervention by selling dollars and buying won during the same period. Although not part of the G7 currency system, there is a high probability of three-party coordination.
6. Market trend: After this incident, the linkage, uncertainty, and risk in the international financial market, especially the foreign exchange market, will significantly increase.
What impact does this have on $BTC $ETH? Let's discuss in the comments.$UNI On July 29, 106,000 tokens were burned, with an annualized burn rate of 6.1%, equivalent to about $170 million. Deflation expectations are expected to squeeze circulating supply in the short term. KOL sentiment is 10:0 bullish across the board, making it the most extreme in the direction consensus among the tracking assets that day, with very thin short liquidity. The catalyst comes from the dual drivers of Robinhood Chain launch and the V4 proposal, with burn volume heavily dependent on the initial trading heat of the new chain. If the new chain's daily active users and trading volume significantly decline in the coming week, the current burn rate will be difficult to maintain, and the pricing support for the deflationary narrative will need to be reassessed.
#美军空袭伊朗, oil prices surged and then retreated, #银行业联名施压, CLARITY stablecoin terms may be renewedA few days ago, Panda Bro (@0xCryptoChan) posted a post pointing out:
Median Realized Price (median cost of Bitcoin purchase) is approximately $62,748.
This is on-chain data.
Seeing this data, I suddenly thought:
The 200 WSMA from the market trading data I did a few days ago is also close to that level.
So, here's an interesting question:
Near the bottom of historical cycles, do on-chain coin holding costs and long-term price equilibrium lines often gradually converge?
So I conducted a small experiment:
Observe two completely different data systems side by side:
One from on-chain:
Median Realized Price
(Actual Holding Cost for Investors)
One from market trading:
200WSMA / 300WSMA
(Long-term price equilibrium)
As of July 30, 2026:
BTC Price:
≈ $64.6k
Median Realized Price：
≈ $61.7k
(Different on-chain data sources and UTXO statistical methods may vary)
200WSMA：
≈ $63.1k
300WSMA：
≈ $54.9k
Interestingly, the on-chain cost model and the traditional price moving average model are giving similar structural signals.
A simple explanation:
One is to observe the "investor's buying cost,"
One is to observe the "long-term market price memory."
When the two begin to converge, the market may enter an area worth watching.
Perhaps this is what they call resonance between data.
There's another interesting part.
Currently, some classic cyclical indicators (MVRV, NUPL, STH/LTH, ETC.) do not provide exactly the same signal as this cost structure indicator.
This also reminds us:
There is no "all-purpose indicator" in the market.
Different data observes different dimensions of the market:
Some people look at valuation, some on holding costs, and some on price cycles.
(Personal research, not investment advice)Good morning, everyone! Today is Friday, and it's also the last day of July
Last night, risk assets saw a significant rebound overall. The latest U.S. inflation data has cooled down, with overall PCE year-on-year falling from 4.1% to 3.7% in June, and core PCE slightly declining from 3.4% to 3.3%.
However, overall inflation has dropped significantly, mainly due to falling energy prices. Core inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, so the market remains divided on future monetary policy.
In the US market, Microsoft's earnings report was strong, with its stock price rising over 15% in a single day, driving a collective rebound in the Nasdaq, S&P, and semiconductor sectors. In early trading today, Japanese and Korean tech stocks also saw a significant recovery, indicating that short-term risk appetite has indeed recovered.
However, it should be noted that this rebound is more like a recovery in sentiment after a previous sharp drop and does not mean that market risks have been completely eliminated. Recently, traditional stock and derivatives markets have been highly volatile. AI hedge fund Situational Awareness has suffered severe losses on high-leverage investments and was forced to sell most of its public equity portfolio. This indicates that once the market misjudges direction, high-leverage funds are still prone to concentrated liquidation.
In the crypto market, Strategy's net loss in the second quarter was about $8.2 billion, mainly due to book losses from falling Bitcoin position prices. Compared to the financial losses, I pay more attention to its recent actual operations.
Strategy has not continued to buy Bitcoin for several consecutive weeks and has sold about $216 million in BTC to pay preferred dividends and replenish cash reserves. At the same time, the company has also retained plans to liquidate up to $1.25 billion in BTC.
This means that strategies that previously supported market buying have now shifted from only buying without selling to prioritizing cash flow and debt management. In the short term, this will weaken market expectations for continued institutional buying and may also put some pressure on Bitcoin.
Regarding ETFs, the latest trading day saw a net inflow of $46.3 million for crypto ETFs, indicating a slight return of institutional funds; However, over the past five trading days, there has still been a net outflow of about $341 million, so it is still unclear that institutions have fully shifted to going long.
Back to the market, Bitcoin is still fluctuating around $65,000. The rebound in US and Asian markets has helped crypto sentiment to some extent, but Strategy selling coins, temporary ETF outflows, and market deleveraging risks will still limit short-term upside potential.
Personally, I think the market will still be oscillating slightly upward today, but for now it seems more like a recovery rally. Therefore, further observation is needed to see if the market will truly reverse
Below BTC, watch around $64,000
Below ETH, watch around $1880
Below SOL, watch around $73
Overall, macro sentiment has somewhat recovered, but institutional funds have not fully returned. For the market to further open upward momentum, it still needs to see whether BTC can effectively break through and hold above $66,000.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% I truly believe the market has given us a "gift from God."
Most AI stocks have dropped -50% from their all-time highs, with some even down -75%, yet people have not bought in.
Let me first explain why we are selling, then explain why this is a generational wealth buying opportunity:
1) Hyperscale cloud service providers (such as $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META, etc.) are expected to spend about $700 to $850 billion+ on AI data centers, chips, and infrastructure this year.
However, investors are increasingly frustrated, as this spending has yet to translate into corresponding revenue or profit growth at the expected pace.
Analysts describe it as an "air pocket": construction is certainly underway, but dollar gains and monetization (especially for some of the largest spenders) are still in the early stages or uncertain.
The earnings response amplified this: Alphabet raised its capital expenditure guidance (some reports reported as much as about $205 billion), and Tesla warned of a "year of massive capital expenditure," triggering a sharp sell-off.
However, I think we will soon realize that such massive capital expenditures are well justified.
2) As demand for high-bandwidth memory and related components increases, this has led to shortages and soaring prices.
I know this sounds bullish, but most investors don't see it that way, lol.
While this benefits pure memory/storage stocks (like $MU and its peers), it also raises the cost base for everyone else: think hyperscale cloud providers, device manufacturers (for example, $AAPL raising some product prices due to rising component costs), and the broader supply chain.
Higher costs directly raise concerns about profit margins and doubts about the sustainability of spending speed.
Although this has helped companies like $MU and AI enablers as a whole, they have also been hit.
3) AI-related stocks (especially semiconductors and the "Big Seven") have seen huge gains over the past year.
Crowded transactions + high valuations make this group vulnerable to any disappointment or narrative shifts.
Therefore, recently we've seen profit-taking, capital rotation into less favored areas, and a period of sharp weekly declines led by chip stocks (SOXX, memory stocks), even as some software/enterprise AI stocks held their ground or rebounded.
Basically, it's a rotation of AI-powered stocks to AI-powered stocks.
I've talked about this before, and that's one reason I've rotated part of my AI empowerment holdings to AI beneficiaries (for example, $MU, $AAOI, $NBIS moving to $ZETA, $TEAM, $NOW).
4) Secondary catalysts and macro noise
First, geopolitical and macro risks—including oil pressures related to Iran and concerns over interest rates/Fed path—have intensified risk aversion. This is unfavorable for AI trading.
But in my view, most of it has already been priced.
Second, there are competitive concerns (efficient Chinese models may reduce computing intensity, or advances in Chinese equipment).
However, most of it is FUD (because they haven't done much yet), but for open-source models, this only benefits AI trading.
Third, the Central Bank Forum (BIS) and analysts compare the scale/pace of AI capital expenditure to historical frenzy, while also noting the existence of real demand.
People have always said the AI bubble is like the internet bubble.
But I have already written about why this is wrong. You can search for "internet bubble," and posts will appear in my profile.
So, most of these are either priced in or purely FUD.
This brings us to what I believe is the main reason we are actually selling.
5) Ultimately, it's all human psychology at work.
We've reached a point where people don't even know what they're buying.
But that doesn't matter.
If you buy a stock with some AI terminology or some cool elements (like "photonics," which is very important, but 99% of people don't know what it actually is, lol).
So, after a 1000% increase in a few months (look at $SIVE), selling is only a matter of time.
However, these companies do have solid investment logic.
They are the shovels of the gold rush.
So, as we examined, most of it was FUD.
I'll be the first to admit I didn't expect to drop this deeply, but now, I think 95% of the decline has already happened.
My price targets for some quality stocks are as follows:
$SIVE: 25
$INTC: 75
$NBIS: 140
$ASYS: 12
$AAOI: 75
$QCOM: 152
I will publish entry and exit records for stocks I believe have bottomed out or peaked.
But for now, we just need to buy a bit more and wait patiently.QQQ was at $690.59, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.4% in a single day, marking the third largest gain of the year. But while tech stocks are on a frenzy, Bitcoin is trading sideways near $63,000, barely moving. Arthur Hayes's answer is straightforward—liquidity is drained by AI.
(1) Market data
QQQ is currently $690.59, up 0.23% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 663.30 and a high of 692.39. At the close of U.S. trading on July 30, the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.4% to 28,106 points, marking the third largest single-day gain of the year. The Philadelphia semiconductor index surged 8% in parallel, SanDisk gained over 25%, and CoreWeave rose 21%.
The storage sector rebounded collectively — SanDisk rose 47% in two days, SK Hynix jumped from 900 to 1,174, and Micron jumped from 706 to 917. Microsoft's earnings report was the trigger, but what truly ignited the market was the collective sentiment recovery across the tech sector.
(2) Arthur Hayes' viewpoint: AI is Bitcoin's liquidity black hole
In an interview, Arthur Hayes made a core point: Bitcoin's failure to rise as expected is not because liquidity has disappeared, but because liquidity has been absorbed by AI. He pointed out that although the dollar's M2 is expanding, the newly created liquidity has not flowed into the crypto market, but has been intercepted by massive capital expenditures from the AI industry.
From the end of 2022 to now, AI companies have raised about $1.5 trillion in debt, almost matching the incremental amount of US M2. Investors are frantically chasing AI tech stocks and related supply chains. Rising AI tycoons prioritize investing in real estate or diversifying into Nasdaq stocks, rather than flowing into the crypto market.
If the AI bubble bursts, cryptocurrencies will fall first because investors will sell liquid assets in response to margin call notices. However, he also believes that the AI bubble will eventually burst, and then funds will flow back into the crypto market.
(3) Nasdaq surges, BTC moves sideways—exactly the phenomenon Hayes described
The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.4%, QQQ jumped from 663 to 692; Philadelphia Semiconductor rose 8%, with storage stocks collectively rebounding violently; BTC fluctuated around 63,000, barely following the gains. Funds are flowing into AI stocks and tech stocks rather than the crypto market. This is precisely the data validation of Hayes's viewpoint—incremental funds are absorbed by the AI industry, so Bitcoin naturally cannot rise.
(4) Technical aspects
QQQ is currently near WMA5/10/20 (691/690/689), with moving averages starting to flatten. SUPERTREND shows support near 688.77, indicating that a short-term bullish structure is forming. 692 is short-term resistance; if it breaks through effectively, it could further test the 700-710 range. 663 is a recent bottom; if it falls below it again, the short-term bullish structure will be disrupted.
(5) Transmission to the crypto market
The surge in the Nasdaq and the violent rebound in the storage sector indicate that the AI narrative is shifting from "burning money anxiety" to "confirmation of AI infrastructure demand." But Bitcoin's sideways movement also shows that funds haven't flowed from tech stocks into the crypto market—at least for now. Arthur Hayes's perspective provides a framework for observation: as long as AI continues to drain marginal liquidity, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to emerge from an independent upward trend. If the AI bubble really bursts, the crypto market may first fall and then rise—first sold off as a source of liquidity, then profited from capital flows back.
The Nasdaq rose 3.4%, while BTC was still hovering around 63,000. It's not because Bitcoin isn't good, but because the money has gone somewhere else. Only when the "liquidity black hole" effect of AI weakens will Bitcoin truly take off.
$QQQ
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% "Bitcoin Market Morning Train: Core Data and Information Overview"
Friends, now is the time! BTC is now above 65,000, with a July gain of over 10%, but volume still can't keep up. Whether it can hold 65K remains to be seen.
Three opposing votes at the FOMC + PCE inflation cooling—the macro card is already played.
However, the market was as quiet as before a storm: $9.6 billion in options was settled today, the US-Iran war reignited, and the discount on Korean kimchi widened—three things were laid out one by one.
Quick overview of the BTC market
BTC is currently quoted around 65,200, having briefly surged above 65,000 overnight before slightly pulling back. The intraday low reached 63, rebounded after 199, and the 63K support held continuously. The Fear and Greed Index is 29, still in the fear range.
On the four-hour chart, both bulls and bears remain in a stalemate, with clear boundaries between resistance above and support below, volatility continuing to narrow, and a window of market reversal approaching.
Core data from the past 24 hours
In 24 hours, 243 million USD was liquidated, long positions 143 million yuan, short positions less than 100 million yuan, and short-term funds chasing highs were washed out again. The US dollar index fell below 101 to 100.84, while gold broke above $4,100. WTI crude oil is around $84-85, with a geopolitical premium still in place.
Market Entity Behavior
(1) ETF Institutional Capital Flows:
Yesterday (July 30), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $50 million, ending a four-day streak of net outflows.
BlackRock IBIT contributed $89.8281 million and remains the absolute main player. Fidelity's FBTC outflowed by 43.0832 million, and ARKB by 14.6421 million. After ending four days of outflows, it has been two consecutive days of net inflows, but it is all supported by BlackRock alone.
(2) BTC inflows and outflows from exchanges:
Net flow on exchanges is close to zero, with inflows and outflows basically balanced, no large-scale selling orders, and no signs of liquidity tightening.
(3) Whales and Miners:
On-chain data shows that there is currently no capitulation selling, and whales are still continuously buying BTC on dips. Miners' MPI is negative, with selling pressure at multi-year lows.
(4) Retail Investors' BTC Trading Situation:
The premium on Korean kimchi has expanded to -2.05%, with the discount expansion related to the government's confirmation that the crypto tax will be launched as scheduled in January 2027, with profits over 2.5 million won subject to a 22% tax rate.
This is essentially telling South Korean retail investors: if you don't sell now, you'll have to pay taxes if you sell next year. The discount has widened from -1.46% a day ago to -2.05%, with Koreans throwing their chips out the door.
(5) Order book pending data:
There is active support below 64K, and above 64.5-65K, fixed orders form a selling pressure wall. Long/short orders are balanced, with no obvious one-sided advantage.
Special attention today
First, $9.6 billion in Bitcoin options expire today.
This is the largest option expiry event in 2026, with a nominal value of about $9.6 billion, including $7.5 billion in call options and $2.1 billion in put options.
The $70,000-$72,000 range is concentrated with about $3.3 billion in bullish spread positions, which are highly likely to be zero at the current 65K price.
Only 5.46% of call options are in the money, while put options are in the money at 18.29%. The total gamma value of 43.6% will be reset at this expiration, and after market makers unhedge their positions, suppressed volatility may be released.
Second, the US-Iran war reignited, and the ceasefire ended after 48 hours.
On July 26, the U.S. and Iran briefly paused, causing oil prices to plunge 16% over three days. However, on July 29, Iran launched ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Jordan, breaking the informal ceasefire after 48 hours. WTI oil prices rebounded by more than 5%.
The geopolitical premium on oil prices will not easily fade; inflation expectations are closely tied to oil prices, and the logic behind Fed rate cut expectations is being reverse-priced by energy shocks.
Third, large-denomination stablecoin movements: about 500 million USDT was transferred from Binance hot wallets to Tether Treasury addresses.
The market interpreted this as a technical network switch (ERC-20 → other low-fee networks) rather than a liquidity withdrawal, so BTC did not experience significant volatility.
Fourth, liquidation risk: If BTC falls below $61,524, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CECs will reach $1.325 billion; if it breaks $67,712, the strength of short liquidation will reach $1.071 billion.
Core judgment
$9.6 billion in options delivery took place today; if a large number of call options are wiped out, bull confidence could be shaken.
However, a 43.6% gamma reset can also lift short-term price suppression from market makers. The direction may become clear after the delivery.
The renewed conflict between the US and Iran means that geopolitical risk premiums are being re-priced into asset prices. This logic is clear and rigid: the ceasefire is broken→ the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists→ oil prices remain high→ inflation expectations are rising→ Fed rate cut expectations are suppressed→ and risk assets are under pressure.
65K is the exam hall, not the finish line. Let option delivery land first, let the high-volume candlestick confirm the direction first.All the funds have flowed into the stock market, so no wonder the crypto world is stagnant—there's no liquidity left
In contrast, stocks are soaring wildly
BTC has been hovering around 64,000 for over a week. Opening OKX tokenized stock, SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Apple are rising every day
Funds are indeed heading that way. CoinDesk reported in Q2 that institutions are clearly shifting toward AI-driven stocks, with crypto assets seeing net outflows for three consecutive quarters. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.67 billion in Q2, marking the largest single-quarter outflow in history. The market capitalization of tokenized stocks surged to $2.3 billion in mid-July, doubling compared to March.
The reason isn't complicated.
After ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, invested in OKX, tokenized stocks effectively obtained Wall Street's "birth permit," and the market reacted immediately. Trading volume also picked up. On Binance, tokenized stock spot transactions reached $15.5 million in one week, and perpetual contracts exceeded $1 billion. US stocks have been rising, while crypto remains sideways. The S&P 500 has risen nearly 15%, BTC has dropped 14%. Money chasing stocks is not surprising.
I didn't move myself and wanted to wait a bit longer. If you want to chase stocks, don't sell all your coins to trade—keep some on both sides.
Let's talk in the comments: did you chase tokenized stocks this time or keep holding onto your coins? Profit surged 1814% + 60% capacity locked in 5-year long-term agreements, is the current storage decline purely an emotional sell-off?
Revenue reached 171.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 130%; operating profit was 89.5 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 1814%, with single-quarter profit already exceeding the combined net profits of 2024 and 2025.
But more worth noting than the numbers are several signals hidden in the earnings call.
First signal: Capacity is locked down.
Samsung plans to allocate 60% to 70% of total capacity to sign long-term supply agreements, with a base term of 5 years and rolling renewals. Customers pay upfront to lock in volumes for the coming years.
Agreements have been completed with five global data center customers, with another five in negotiation.
What does shortage mean?
This is what shortage means.
If something is not scarce, who would pay upfront to lock capacity? Who would sign a 5-year long-term agreement? Who would lock more than 60% of capacity?
And this is just one company.
Both Samsung and SK Hynix are doing this—and they say, "We find it difficult to meet all supply requests within available capacity."
This is even more convincing than the long-term agreements themselves.
Second signal: HBM is accelerating its catch-up.
HBM4 revenue in Q3 is expected to grow more than threefold quarter-over-quarter, with HBM4 accounting for over 60% of total HBM revenue in the second half.
The goal is to increase HBM market share to over 30% in the second half.
From 21% to over 30%, the HBM market is shifting from three players to four, becoming a reality.
Third signal: Shortage will last at least until 2028.
Samsung’s original statement: "Memory shortages in 2027 will be more severe than this year, and tight supply may continue until 2028."
The reason is simple—building a fab to production takes more than three and a half years, and meaningful capacity expansion requires a long time.
Fourth signal: NAND is also rising.
Server SSDs are expected to account for over 60% of Samsung’s NAND revenue, up more than 20 percentage points year-on-year.
V10 started production in August, and V11 trial production has begun.
Previously, the market thought NAND was less profitable than DRAM, but now it’s different.
AI is also driving NAND demand.
My judgment:
Explosive performance growth, long-term agreements locking volume, tight capacity, HBM catching up, NAND rising.
These are not stories; they are facts happening now.
Samsung and SK Hynix, despite high-intensity capital expenditures, still cannot fully meet all customer demands.
These companies themselves admit shortages will continue until 2028.
When the largest players in an industry say their capacity cannot meet demand, do you think it’s true or false?
When the market panics, it’s precisely the time to see the facts clearly.
From the leveraged ETFs launched at the end of May to regulatory restrictions, from Hynix to Samsung, a wave of extreme deleveraging shocks has pushed storage stock prices back to their original levels.
But what about the fundamentals?
Long-term agreements are still being signed, capacity is still expanding, and the gap remains.
Leverage has been cleared, chips have changed hands cleanly, the logic of storage hasn’t changed.
What has changed is sentiment, not facts.
$MU $SKHY $SSNLF #storage #semiconductor #chip #KoreanStocksSituational Awareness under Leopold
There are reports that he sold large public stock positions to Citadel
As a result, AI stocks rebounded sharply on the same day
$MSFT up 15.5%
$MU up 18.4%
LRCX up 18%
IREN rises 30.5%
The timing was just too coincidental
However, the entire increase should not be attributed to Leopold selling out
Microsoft's Azure growth of 43% is fundamentals
After a rapid drop earlier, short positions are filled in, which is the chip side
The two events happened to collide, forming this wave of rebound
It's not that AI demand surged overnight
The goods were all dumpedCurrent situation The 60-day ceasefire collapsed on July 8; fighting resumed for ~2 weeks Currently paused but no formal deal yet — Iran says it has no direct talks with the US, only talks with Oman over Hormuz Observed impact so far (actual data) When the ceasefire collapsed (July 8): $BTC fell ~2.25% to $62,115; $ETH fell ~2.57% Oil reacted ~6x harder than BTC (Hormuz directly ships oil/LNG; crypto doesn't move through it) Earlier de-escalation news (May-June): BTC rose ~5%, helping push it toPCE turned negative and GDP slowed, but I took a big bite from US stock contracts.
---
Everyone, when last night's PCE data came out, I was staring at the SKHYNIX market.
Then I saw that push:
In June, PCE fell 0.1% month-on-month, turning negative for the first time since 2020.
GDP growth in the second quarter was 1.5%, far below the expected 2.1%.
When the data came out, the market was stunned for three seconds, then began to sprint.
SKHYNIX was directly pulled through from where I was short opened, and my order was liquidated by 60%, which was precisely traded off.
But at the same time, I took a big long position on US stock contracts.
---
🔍 What does PCE turning negative really mean?
Many people, upon seeing PCE turn negative, their first reaction is "inflation has dropped, good news."
But this time, the numbers are not that simple.
Inflation is declining (PCE turning negative), the economy is also declining (GDP 1.5%), but consumption is still holding up (Q2 consumption growth 3.2%).
The data mix is subtle:
· Inflation is cooling → the need for rate hikes is lessened
· But economic slowdown → recession fears are rising
· Consumption remains strong→ and has not yet entered a recession
What the market fears most is not inflation or recession, but "stagflation"—if inflation doesn't go down, the economy won't pick up.
This data at least indicates that inflation is declining, temporarily lifting the stagflation alert.
For risk assets, this is the biggest short-term positive.
---
💻 How do I operate on US stock contracts?
While SKHYNIX was liquidated, I made a completely opposite move on US stock contracts:
Go long on tech stocks.
The logic is simple:
· PCE turned negative→ inflation cooled→ rate hike expectations declined→ valuation pressure on tech stocks eased
· Economic slowdown but strong consumption → rising expectations for a soft landing → risk appetite rebounding
· Tech stocks have fallen hard before→ oversold and have significant room for rebound
Less than an hour after the data was released, my US stock long positions started to show gains.
As of today, the gains from holding the position have already outpaced the losses from SKHYNIX liquidation.
---
🤔 Why did SKHYNIX go viral, but US stocks made money?
The same data, the same time, but completely different results.
The problem lies in the selection of targets and the structure of fluctuations.
SKHYNIX is a single-currency contract with high volatility and relatively poor liquidity; a single needle can trigger all stop-losses.
US stock contracts track the overall market, with relatively smooth fluctuations, so there is no negative sentiment of "the news comes out first, then the direction is moved."
With the same judgment, you can make money in US contracts, but you may be forced liquidation in single-currency contracts.
That's what I learned this time.
---
🎯 What do you think comes next?
PCE turning negative is a short-term positive sign, but medium-term pressure remains.
The Fed has three internal votes against, and the probability of a rate hike in September has reached 78%.
Walsh said "raise rates without hesitation when necessary," which carries weight.
My strategy:
· US stock contracts: The short-term bullish pattern remains, but positions will gradually decrease, so don't chase highs
· SKHYNIX and similar single-currency currencies: light positions, no news burden, no holding positions to sleep in
· Direction: Short-term rebound, medium-term volatility, long-term cautious approach
---
💬 To be honest
When SKHYNIX was liquidated, I did feel a bit upset.
But later, when I made money back from US stock contracts, I realized something:
The same judgment can be changed to another target, and the results can be worlds apart.
It wasn't because of a wrong judgment, but because they chose the wrong battlefield.
In the future, when facing major macro days, I will be more cautious in choosing targets—choosing those with more favorable volatility structures, rather than focusing solely on large volatility.
---
Everyone, what do you think will happen in the market after PCE turns negative?
$SKHYNIX
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% $BTC 🚨 $COTI & $RE: REGULATORY SHOCKWAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER A BULL RUN 🚀
The Australian internet regulator has just struck the platform for failing to remove terrorist content. Legal proceedings have already begun — and the market impact is huge. 🚀 This is not just a fine; it’s a signal that compliance-prioritized projects like $COTI and $RE are becoming the only safe haven in the intensifying regulatory storm. 📊 Smart money is already taking positions in advance, assessing the consequences.
💡 When regulators tighten the screws, capital flows into protocols that provide transparency and privacy without legal risks. This shift is happening rapidly. 🔍 Are you positioned in assets that benefit from the new order — or still using platforms that attract legal heat? 💬
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️"Don't Laugh at DOGE's Decline; The Meme Sector's Barometer Has Never Changed It" $DOGE
If you say Dogecoin is "no one is playing anymore," check out Robinhood and Binance spot trading—DOGE's 24-hour transactions still exceed $200 million, thicker than a bunch of new memes combined.
Its current problem isn't a lack of hype, but that the hype has regressed into muscle memory: when Bitcoin pulls up, it rises by 1 point; when it crashes, it falls by 2 points. The DOGE/BTC exchange rate is hovering at a low level, just drinking the soup without the main dish.
But you need to understand one thing: every time meme sentiment restarts, the first thing capital thinks of is not the new dog, but the old dog.
Because it doesn't require education costs—even delivery riders know about "that dog coin."
The amount of on-chain whale unwinding and exchange net inflow volatility, when put into 170 billion coins in circulation, is just a splash.
I don't shout "DOGE back to 0.7," nor do I agree with "reset to zero."
Treat it like a thermometer for the meme sector: when it starts to rise relative to the big Bitcoin, holding at 0.08, and volume expands, it means retail investors' memories have been awakened; Right now, it's hibernation—veteran holders move their stools, while newcomers can just wait for it to call out first.
Don't hold a position above 5%, treat it as an entertainment stock, not as a faith to top up phone credit. 🦴$DOGE [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Bitcoin dips during the day and rises at night, what's going on?
Pharaoh says it straight: Americans are buying, Asians are selling, two forces are arm wrestling, whoever lets go first loses first. The recent market action is indeed interesting; during the Asian session, the market drops right at the open, while during the US session, it rallies as soon as it opens. The same coin, two distinct attitudes.
The logic is actually very clear. On the Asian side, the Korean stock market has triggered circuit breakers multiple times, SK Hynix and Samsung have fallen so much even their own people barely recognize them. Koreans urgently need cash to cover margin calls, and the liquidity crisis is spreading to the crypto space, forcing them to sell Bitcoin to raise funds. Additionally, retail investors in China, Japan, and Korea are naturally sensitive to the Fed's "pause but hawkish" script, and they flee at the slightest sign of trouble. On the US side, institutions are slowly accumulating through the ETF channel, and retail investors treat Bitcoin as a tech stock substitute, buying as soon as the US market stabilizes.
Pharaoh feels that Asia might continue selling. The Korean market hasn't bottomed yet, the capital drain effect from the Changxin listing is still ongoing, and the liquidity crisis won't be resolved quickly. But US institutions are putting in real money this round. It's hard to say who wins or loses in the short term, but in the long run, who is buying and who is selling will determine the direction of the next trend.
Remember, good trades are waited for, not chased.
However, if we see Bitcoin around 66000-67000 in the next couple of days, Pharaoh's still saying: short short short, live in the palace!
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't get lost! $BTC $ETH $SNDK #PCE环比转负，GDP增速放缓至1.5% Today's performance in the Korean stock market may have broken the thigh of those who cut losses yesterday. The KOSPI index opened up 11%, continued to climb at the open, and quickly expanded its gain to 13%. Heavyweight stocks like SK Hynix rose 24%, and Samsung Electronics surged over 20%—these two bullish candlesticks swallowed most of the losses from the past few days. This is a textbook-level short buying stampede. KOSPI has pulled back nearly 40% from its June high, with the market extremely oversold. Coupled with regulators repeatedly sending signals to "stabilize the market"—confirming the technical feasibility of the short selling ban and promising to limit leveraged ETFs—shorts were forced to close positions, combined with an influx of retail bottom-fishing funds, creating a positive feedback push-up. Those who were panicking and cutting losses yesterday might be staring blankly at screens today. However, it's important to stay calm—whether this is a technical rebound after extreme overselling or the beginning of a trend reversal, depends on the subsequent macro environment, the direction of the global AI narrative, and whether South Korea's own deleveraging process can proceed smoothly. How much it rose today doesn't matter; what matters is whether it can hold up in the coming days. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $XSOXL #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入, the finance minister apologizes for leveraged ETFs. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. #美光暴跌后: Is it the bottom or halfway up? Guys, I'm chasing higher again. #SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy. Last night, I saw SPCX secure a $1.6 billion big order and thought it was a win today, but as soon as the market opened, I followed suit. But soon after, it began to decline steadily. Now the orders are tightly trapped. To be honest, my mind was quite chaotic at this moment. I didn't know whether to keep holding on, replenishing my position, or admit the loss and exit. Can any experts help me analyze this? Is there still a chance for this trend? Give me some suggestions in the comments so I can pay less tuition. If a company gains more and more positive benefits but its stock price keeps dropping, how would you interpret it? SPCX has been like this recently. The U.S. Space Force has just placed a $1.6 billion order, securing 18 Falcon 9 launches in one go, with the cooperation lasting until 2027. Logically, contracts of this level should be enough to stimulate market sentiment. But reality is quite the opposite. After the announcement, SPCX not only failed to strengthen, but continued to come under pressure, with only a symbolic rebound after hours. This shows that the focus of capital has long shifted from this $1.6 billion. Over the past year, SpaceX has secured numerous contracts from the U.S. government and the Pentagon, and has virtually no real competitors in the commercial space sector. Continuously receiving military orders has itself become the default market expectation. When everyone knows a company will keep taking orders, the orders themselves lose their surprise. Capital began to recalculate another thing—valuation. AgainThe official SurfAI announcement unblocks the day of TGE
Usually, when the project team starts the second season, there's a settlement for the first season. The first season lasted over a year, and many of the brothers spent a year. Without explanations, how could the later Warriors dare to take the stage?
Also, most AI nowadays mostly renew monthly fees, rarely using annual cards. Even top-tier models are the same. You never know when your IQ will drop and you'll fall behind. SurfAI is no exception$MU
$SNDK
$SKHYNIX
US stocks rebound sharply, Nasdaq up over 3%! During the session, South Korea's #KOSPI stock market rebounded sharply, rising over 17%! Japanese stock market rebounds sharply, rising over 5%
A key driver should be: last night's US core inflation rate was down, including employment conditions that were still good, which should reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.
Meanwhile, global tech stocks experienced a slump and decline in July, but US stocks rebounded from oversold prices last night, sweeping away the gloom and leading to a broad rally. At today's opening, Asia surged across the board.
OK, so our question now is: is it a rebound or a reversal? My trading is still quite cautious, and for now, I treat it as a rebound. Microsoft is bucking the trend by increasing capital expenditure this time, and the market is actually buying into it. The key is not that it spends less, but that it convinces people "spending out also brings returns." Azure's strong growth, cloud revenue breaking through critical thresholds, and Copilot's expanding paid user base are what set Microsoft apart from other companies burning money on AI. Meta talks about AI, and the market asks when it will break even; Microsoft talks about AI, and the market sees cloud customers already paying the bills. This is the biggest divergence in the AI earnings season. While some companies are investing in data centers, buying GPUs, and powering projects like building toll highways, others are laying roads without knowing the traffic volume yet. I think Microsoft's most ruthless move now is that it doesn't bet on a single model narrative. It sells cloud, software, enterprise processes, and also AI entry points. The market isn't afraid of capital expenditure; the market fears capital expenditure without a path to returns. #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% Apple's earnings exceeded expectations, but its stock price plunged, which is even more worth watching than the results themselves
Because the market is not asking whether Apple is making money now
It makes sense to ask whether Apple can continue to be expensive
The iPhone and Mac sold well, and there were highlights in China, with both revenue and profit above the threshold. But investors see another side of this: supply constraints, rising memory costs, slow AI pace, and less impressive guidance for next quarter. Apple's greatest strength before was making people believe it could take it slow, because its ecosystem was strong enough and its cash flow was solid
But now, the AI arms race has put all tech giants on the stage
Microsoft can prove its AI investment with cloud revenue, Meta is being chased by the market for returns, and Apple is no exception. It doesn't need to burn money like Nvidia does, but it must prove that AI can eventually turn into device replacement and service revenue
A good company does not equal a good stock price
Especially when the good has already been bought out in advance
#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours US Q2 GDP was only 1.5%, which is easily misinterpreted as "the economy is finally failing."
But this data is actually quite uncertain
With surface growth falling short of expectations, the market's first reaction is that hopes for rate cuts are rising, so risk assets like BTC and ETH will naturally feel a bit more comfortable. But breaking it down, consumption is still supporting, AI-related commercial investment is still surging, and the real drags down are imports and inventory-related technology items. What's more troublesome is that although PCE has fallen, core inflation has not yet returned to the Fed's comfortable level
This puts the market in an awkward position
The economy isn't weak enough to have to be injected immediately, and inflation isn't so low that you can confidently turn dovish. The crypto market's favorite scenario is cooling growth, declining inflation, and liquidity opening up. Right now, only the first line is alike; the last two lines haven't fully matched yet
So this is not just pure positive news
This is the market's gamble that the Fed will soften first
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% Most traders are probably looking at this $BTC consolidation and expecting a repeat of July 27. I don’t think it’s that simple. The backdrop is completely different. July 27: • Whale positioning barely improved • CVD fell, showing aggressive selling • OI stayed flat, meaning little fresh leverage entered Now: • Whale positioning is surging • CVD is rising, showing aggressive buying • OI is climbing fast, confirming fresh positions are entering Similar price action. Very different data. #BitcoinA year ago, a floating profit of over $1 billion on paper has now turned into a net loss of $8.22 billion. MicroStrategy's Q2 earnings report has left Bitcoin believers embarrassed. Even more strikingly, the company created its own $BTC Hurdle ARR metric, setting the threshold at 10.8%, but the actual Bitcoin yield was only 4.5%, less than half of the cost line. CFO Andrew Kang said this is its effective cost. To put it bluntly, the company's returns on buying $BTC didn't even surpass the passing line it set for itself. The market reaction was calm; $BTC was still hovering around $65,160, up 2.3% intraday, but the vulnerability of MicroStrategy's leveraged accumulation model was already obvious. Back then, they used convertible bonds and equity financing to frantically increase positions, betting on Bitcoin's unilateral rise. Now, with sharp price fluctuations, the unrealized losses on paper directly break through the profit wall. For $MSTR holders, this signal is quite fatal. A 4.5% return on Bitcoin means its coin accumulation efficiency is declining, and a 10.8% hurdle rate can't be caught up in the short term by liquidity injections. Unless $BTC doubles again, next quarter's earnings numbers will only be even worse. Bitcoin's fundamentals haven't collapsed, but MicroStrategy has shifted from a leveraged long position to a high-risk debt game, and the two are decoupling. Those holding $MSTR should be heavyComplete analysis of Bitcoin performance from August to December (combining Federal Reserve meetings, PCE inflation, four-year halving cycles, ETF funding)
Front-end core foundational framework
1. Cycle positioning
Current bull market peak: October 2025 (126272 USD)
Historical pattern: After peaking, bear market bottoming cycle lasts 12~14 months. → Benchmark bottom window: October–December 2026
Current status: Mid-stage of the bear market. All rebounds are characterized as bear market recovery and rebounds; trend reversals require multiple signal resonances.
2. Changes in core pricing logic
After the launch of spot ETFs in 2024, the weight of US dollar liquidity (Fed policy) > halving cycle narrative;
Bitcoin is a high-beta non-interest-bearing asset, with real interest rates under pressure rising and improved rate cut expectations boosting valuations.
3. Remaining Key Macro Time (Beijing Time)
✅September 17, 02:00 FOMC (quarterly meeting, dot plot update, top priority)
✅October 29, 02:00 FOMC (regular meeting, no dot plot)
✅December 10, 03:00 FOMC (Year-End Close, Latest Interest Rate Expectations)
Core PCE Price Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) is released at the end of each month.
1. Phased Trend Simulation (August–December)
Phase One: August ~ Mid-September (Bottoming and Expected Volatility)
Macroscopic variables
1. Core PCE releases in August and September determine the Fed's tone for September;
2. The current market is highly divided: on one side, betting on a rate cut in Q4; on the other, worried about a rebound in inflation and the Fed maintaining high rates for longer; Washe has repeatedly emphasized that a single month of inflation decline is not enough to change policy.
Market Situation
1. Baseline Scenario (Most Probable)
PCE declined moderately and slowly, without a significant rebound; the Fed kept rates unchanged and spoke hawkishly.
Bitcoin Trend: Wide oscillation within a range, repeated tests of support, and a slow downward consolidation center.
Market characteristics: Positive data rebounds in the short term, but the rebound is not sustainable; After a rebound, it is likely to pull back.
2. Pessimistic scenario
Core PCE rebounded and rose again, with the market trading "long-term high interest rates" again, and risk aversion intensifying.
Bitcoin will test deep support, testing the previously estimated 70% retracement level ≈ $37,881.
3. Optimistic scenario
PCE has been falling for two consecutive months, prompting the market to adjust the probability of a December rate cut, with funds prematurely betting on easing expectations.
A mid-level rebound has emerged, but it is only a bearish rally, making it difficult to break through the previously important resistance level.
Cycle perspective: August and September remain in the bottom-seeking phase, making it difficult to form a final bear market bottom. Historical bottoms often appear after rate cut expectations have fully fermented.
Phase Two: Mid-September ~ Early November (the most important turning point window)
Key event: September FOMC dot plot
Two core results:
1) The dot plot maintains high interest rate expectations, with no rate cuts this year→ Risk assets are under pressure, and Bitcoin continues to bottom out;
2) The dot plot lowers interest rate expectations, clearly releasing the possibility of a rate cut in December.
👉 Once expectations for a December rate cut heat up, the market will start trading early with easing expectations (historical pattern: expectations prevail).
Key window for the cycle: October–December (the ultimate bottom range of the bear market we previously projected)
Historical Patterns:
The process of rising rate cut expectations often marks the final bottoming phase of a bear market.
The bottom usually forms [before the rate cuts take effect], not after the cut.
⚠️ Key caution: "Buy expectations, sell facts":
If the market continues to bet on a rate cut in December, BTC will rebound along with US stocks; When the rate cut officially takes effect in December, it is very likely that good news will be realized and sold off.
Phase Three: November ~ End of December (Expectations fulfilled, direction selection)
1. If the Federal Reserve officially implements rate cuts in December,
Path: November continued early speculation and expectations, with prices fluctuating upward; After the December rate cut, funds took profits and experienced a round of correction.
Qualitative statement: A major bear market rebound after bottoming does not mean the start of a new bull market. According to the cycle framework, a comprehensive bull market will have to wait until 2027 for the continuous bottoming out to end.
2. If inflation rebounds, interest rates will remain unchanged in December
Market easing expectations have completely dashed, and Bitcoin will come under pressure again, pushing the bear market bottom to early 2027.
2. Three Core Observation and Verification Indicators (Your Daily Key Tracking)
1. PCE Inflation Data (Fed Policy Barometer)
- Core PCE continues to decline → rising expectations for rate cuts, which is positive for BTC;
- Core PCE continues to rebound → high interest rates persist, suppressing the non-yielding asset BTC.
2. Bitcoin spot ETF capital flow (Institutional Honest Attitude, We Push Daily Updates)
✅ Continuous net inflows for 3~5 trading days: institutions are starting to position themselves, indicating a positive signal for bottoming;
❌ Long-term continuous net outflow: Institutions continue to reduce positions, and downside risks have not been eliminated.
Important: A single single-day inflow is only a short-term sentiment and does not have trend value.
3. U.S. stock market linkage (Nasdaq, semiconductor sector)
Current stage pattern:
BTC peaked early, and US stocks fluctuated at high levels; If the US stock market experiences a systemic correction, BTC will follow with a sharp drop;
Only a broad-based rally driven by expectations of loose liquidity will see both forces strengthen in harmony.
3. Three Complete Annual Scenario Summaries (August–December)
Scenario 1 | Baseline Scenario (60% Probability)
PCE is slowly declining, with rates remaining hawkish in September and the first preventive rate cut in December
Trend path:
August-September will be volatile and bottoming out → October–November will be a gamble with rate cut expectations rising and oscillating (mid-level bear market rebound); → After the December rate cut, a pullback will be realized.
Ultimate Bear Market Bottom: The October–November range has formed, corresponding to our cycle prediction window.
Scenario 2 | Pessimistic scenario (25% probability)
Inflation stickiness has exceeded expectations, PCE has rebounded, and the Federal Reserve will not cut rates throughout the year.
Trend path: Continuous downward oscillation, constantly testing lows, deeply testing the 70% retracement level; The bear market bottom has been postponed to the first quarter of 2027.
Scenario 3 | Optimistic scenario (15% probability)
Inflation fell rapidly, with clear signals of rate cuts released in September, and multiple rate cuts started throughout the year.
Trend path: Fluctuating rebound from August, continued strength in Q4; The bear market bottom moved up to August–September, significantly shortening the bottoming cycle.
Cognitive misconceptions that must be avoided
Misconception: As long as interest rates are cut, Bitcoin will immediately start a bull runKOSPI surged 13% today, Samsung rose 20%, and SK Hynix rose 24%—the whole screen was filled with voices saying "bottoming out." But well-known U.S. stock trader Ariel Hernandez has just poured cold water on it: don't mistake a violent rebound for a trend reversal. After such a leveraged cleanup, the market may take months or even years to recover previous highs. Today's rebound is essentially a bearish buying stamp after an extremely oversold period. Bears are forced to close positions, retail investors are flooding in, and regulatory signals are maintaining stability—these three forces combined can indeed push the index higher. But this is different from a trend reversal. The real problem is that the leverage structure has already been broken. Those who were liquidated were eliminated, and those who survived dared not fully leverage anymore. The margin balance dropped from 38.6 trillion to 33.2 trillion, and it won't automatically recover in the short term. Ariel Hernandez cited this year's case of leveraged liquidations in the silver market: after the structure is broken, seller supply increases, new buyers lose their leverage willingness, and the market needs a long recovery period—not days, not weeks, but months or even years. So today, KOSPI surged 13%, which is very impressive. But for those who truly want to make money in this market, now is not the time to celebrate, but to observe—to observe the pace of leverage recovery, the willingness to return capital, and whether South Korea's current deleveraging cycle has truly ended. Staying calm after a surge is more important than chasing the rally itself. $SNDK $SKHYNIX $SO$BTC
Price is steadily recovering from the lows,
The FOMC dump wasn't what I expected + price recovered from the dump pretty fast.
OI is oscillating from highs to lows and back to highs, meaning no side is positioned with conviction.
Perps is slowly grinding up and is strong alongside Spot which is even stronger in the current scenario.
Now seeing all this what to expect next,
For the bullish scenario, we would need Spot to cross back to positive with OI building alongside the pump.
Breaking above the 65k level with strength and this could send us to 67-68k.
Now for the bearish scenario, we will need price to reject from 65k again with CVDs slowing rolling over again,
And OI spiking on the dump, that would flush the longs and will send us lower to 62-63k.
Personally, I am out of the shorts in small losses here and won't be taking any LTF trade,
Because if you guys saw my last post, I mentioned about the mFVG that we have on the upside, which so far has been filled every single time in this bear market,
And I don't wanna go against the odds here, I never do.
+ The FOMC dump wasn't what I was expecting and seeing price recovery strength with CVDs backing it (main stuff) and the timing window (End of the month).
It's very possible we see Monthly Open manipulation tapping into the mFVG then start the dump towards 60-62k.
So I am fine with taking a small lose and now I am only focusing on the HTF POIs for now.$BTC #USQ2GDP1.5% 回望两轮牛市高点，一个耐人寻味的现象摆在眼前：2024年3月以太坊触及4100美元，比特币73000美元；到2024年12月牛市新高阶段，比特币冲高至11万美元，以太坊却依旧卡在4100美元迟迟无法突破。两轮行情ETH顶部始终锚定在同一价位，长期陷入瓶颈难以向上突破。
在加密市场当中，币种想要突破历史新高，往往需要满足三大核心条件：其一，具备可落地验证、经得起市场检验的全新叙事逻辑；其二，前期充分深度洗盘，筹码经过充分换手；其三，项目层面无大额代币解锁带来的抛售压力。对照来看，2024年以太坊只满足后两项，最致命的短板便是长期缺少能够持续支撑价格上行的全新叙事。
回溯上半年三月行情，以太坊主打Layer2扩容叙事，市场一度笃定L2生态蓬勃发展会推动ETH持续通缩。但现实并未契合预期，Solana凭借低廉手续费与出色性能分流大量用户，L2并未实现预想的生态繁荣，旧叙事宣告失效。年末新一轮牛市到来之际，以太坊直接陷入叙事真空状态。即便推出ETH‑ETF产品，机构资金参与意愿依旧低迷；Dencun升级本应巩固通缩逻辑，结果ETH日销毁量从数千枚暴跌至每日仅50‑70枚，ETH由通缩转为温和通胀。以太坊主网L1季度收入大幅缩水，九成以上交易手续费被各Layer2捕获，过往的通缩逻辑彻底崩塌，却迟迟没有新的方向承接市场预期。
反观同期的Solana走出独立牛市行情，完美契合三大上涨条件：前期经历深度回撤，最低跌至8.13美元，跌幅超97%筹码洗盘彻底；大额解锁推迟至2025年，短期无抛压隐患；独占meme币赛道红利，拥有强有力的全新叙事加持，价格从低位一路冲高至290美元创下历史新高。由此可见，叙事驱动是加密牛市运行的底层核心逻辑，没有持续有效的故事支撑，币种便难以获得增量资金入场。
放眼当下熊市环境，RWA成为唯一逆势持续增长的赛道叙事，黑石、富兰克林、Circle等传统金融巨头持续入局，带来实打实的增量资金流入。ETH、头部DeFi项目以及BNB具备承接RWA叙事的先天优势：标的前期普遍回撤约七成，筹码经过充分清洗；UNI、AAVE等老牌DeFi龙头代币早已完成全部解锁，无大额抛压；叠加机构入局RWA的全新叙事加持，三项上涨条件基本齐备，或将成为下一阶段市场重点关注的方向。
加密市场永远是旧叙事退场，新叙事接力。以太坊此前因叙事断层陷入停滞，而RWA或许是打破僵局、走出长期瓶颈的关键突破口$BTC $ETH This question from a crypto user is quite typical, so I took some time in class to comprehensively analyze SOL. Regarding how to determine whether the MACD fast and slow lines are in a zero uptrend or downtrend, a post from SanDisk yesterday mentioned: both are in a weekly death cross trend, and the daily chart is open downward, so why did SanDisk rebound to 1694 after falling from 1988 to 1316? This rebound was triggered by the 2-day MACD rebounding and stopping signal + hourly strength. When it fell near 1000 the day before, my forward view also showed a rebound wave, so we can predict that the 3-day MACD rebound signaled a stop price + hourly strength driving the effect. Now we can see that when SanDisk rebounded to the weekly support at 1000, it indeed gave a stop signal when the 3-day moving average hit zero. Therefore, during a weekly-level adjustment cycle, when the weekly support is pushed back, we need to pay attention to changes when the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th day MACD returns to zero. Indicators should be viewed together to comprehensively assess the possibility of the next move.Through the crosshair of the 4x scope, I saw the financial report split in half at the target target. The timing was off—$1.22 billion in revenue, nearly one notch below expectations, and after-hours prices fell 5% like prey struck in the chest. Wind direction: west-southwest, high humidity, market sentiment is smog, not suitable for long-distance fire.
But I didn't shift my crosshair. Stripping away those numbers that would be swept away by the wind: GAAP net loss of $360 million, that's scar tissue but not fatal. The real ballistics lie elsewhere—adjusted EBITDA of $207.8 million, marking fourteen consecutive seasons with a bullseye. When the entire war zone shrinks by 25% and market value shrinks by 11%, this gun's market share actually reached an unprecedented 10.3%. This isn't called fading, it's called changing the magazine.
I pulled the bolt and checked the rifling. Trading revenue was $599 million, which is a cooled barrel compared to Q1. But note the composition of the ammunition: Bitcoin accounted for only 12% of revenue, which was over half of the total revenue that year, and now it's just a cartridge in armor-piercing rounds. Companies are turning their focus to stablecoins and derivatives—this isn't a retreat, it's a recalibration of its trajectory. The exposed weakness is the Q3 guidance of $5–580 million, below Wall Street's expectations for ballistic computers. They wanted to see from different angles, but I only saw a mountain gun turning.
What made my pupils contract the most wasn't the losses, but the 819 BTC holdings. Only veteran snipers dare to press bullets when behind. Others saw the post-5% smoke mark retreating, while he redrew the shooting elements in the low area. This isn't just looking at meat on the chopping board through binoculars—it's tactical preparation.
As for the post-market drop of 5%—the trend is for beginners. I measured wind deviation through the scope, the drone hovered overhead, and the trajectory had been corrected. From $40,000 to $80,000, from Satoshi Nakamoto's genesis block to ETH's POS shift, how many times has he changed barrels on this front? Every time the enemy thought he should retreat, he simply changed to a hidden position.
I don't care about that quarter's earnings. What I'm concerned about is: when most people use radar to scan the sea, why did he drop anchor here? The record market share hit wasn't luck, but after six years of long-short and bull-short battles, he trusted that calculated advance amount.
Firing in a losing position requires courage, and even more so you need to recalculate the compensation amount based on the wind direction. Where the money is doesn't matter; what matters most is the direction of the wind. He placed his gun behind the stablecoins and derivatives bunkers, waiting for the next wind.
Trajectory adjustment complete. Wait for the trigger signal.
#影响周期 · Quarterly #加密数据 · Exchange Earnings #Coinbase · $1.22 Billion · -18.5% · Post-hours -5%$TAO is currently in a rare state: the quality of the protocol layer has fundamentally changed from 2023 to 2026, and mining has evolved from a rampant exploit, $5,000 daily arbitrage game to a highly competitive ecosystem where products genuinely generate revenue—but the price has dropped from $350 to $185, a drop of nearly 47%. The divergence between improved fundamentals and sustained price declines is the most valuable contradiction at present.
This divergence in the macro background cannot be ignored. The Federal Reserve's high interest rate environment continues to suppress risk asset valuations, the US dollar index remains strong, gold is relatively resilient due to safe-haven demand, and AI concept stocks are currently in a recovery window after a round of intense deleveraging on the Nasdaq. AI narrative targets in the crypto market, including $TAO, have seen a significant increase in correlation with US US AI sectors over the past two years—fluctuations in the Nasdaq AI sector often carry into TAO's price range within 48 hours. Until current interest rate expectations clearly shift, this transmission chain will continue to pose a valuation ceiling for TAO.
In terms of drivers, macro liquidity pressure ranked first, supply dilution from continuous subnet token unlocks ranked second, and improvements in miner narratives ranked third. The first two are downward price anchors, and the third is a potential repricing trigger, but the order cannot be reversed.
Trigger conditions for an upward scenario: the Federal Reserve sends a clear signal of rate cuts, Nasdaq AI sector trading volume expands and breaks recent highs, and during the same period, TAO on-chain subnet revenue data shows verifiable month-on-month growth. Only when all three of these variables are met simultaneously can fundamental improvements be repriced by the market, and the $185 level has strong support logic in this scenario. The key variables to watch are the flow of funds in US AI sector ETFs and the actual number of paying users on the TAO subnet. The failure signal was that the Nasdaq pulled back more than 5% again, and TAO followed the decline over the same period, indicating that macro pressure has not yet been cleared.
Trigger conditions for a downward scenario: further strengthening of the US dollar combined with a large unlock window for subnet tokens, market liquidity concentrates on Bitcoin and gold, and TAO is prioritized for reducing positions due to thin liquidity. In this scenario, improvements in protocol quality offer little short-term support for the price; $185 will become resistance rather than support. The variables to watch are the depth of TAO spot trading and changes in large position addresses. The failure signal is that TAO has shown significant excess returns relative to Bitcoin during the macro downturn, indicating that funds are actively allocating AI narratives.
The shift in miner narratives provides a non-price dimension of health signal: when mining cannot be cheated and profit margins are slim, participants who remain in the network are driven by real demand. This changes the assessment of the protocol's long-term survival probability, but does not alter the reality that short-term prices are dominated by macro liquidity.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days: whether the wording of the Fed's July meeting minutes will shift in stance, whether the Nasdaq AI sector can maintain its recovery slope, and whether TAO on-chain subnet revenue will show quantifiable increments. If any of these three undergo directional changes, it is necessary to reassess whether the current fundamentals—price misalignment—have entered the recovery phase.
#HYPE遭大额解押减持, it fell 10% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期 in a week, and the stock price plunged sharply in after-hours trading. #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion