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$BTC Is it about to enter a bottoming out phase for long-term chips?
The first three halving cycles all follow a pattern: about 914 days after the halving, a bottom-level accumulation period begins.
It has been 830 days since this halving, and 84 days remain until the critical time, which falls exactly in October this year.
According to historical patterns, in October, the big pie, along with various altcoins, will officially enter the bottoming phase of phased accumulation by long-term funds, and the next round of positioning window is approaching. The next halving will be in March or April 2028.The Federal Reserve showed a rare split with three votes in favor of a rate hike, directly breaking the market's expectations for a rate cut. Tonight's upcoming PCE data will be a key litmus test for recalibrating macro risk appetite.
Currently, $BTC is consolidating around $64,034, down 0.75% for the day, reflecting the market's cautious sentiment on the eve of major macro data releases. The Fed's voting result was 9 to 3, with three members advocating a 25 basis point rate hike. This hawkish signal has raised long-term expectations for risk-free rates, suppressing overall risk asset position expansion.
The priority of driving factors is as follows: PCE inflation data's repricing of the interest rate path directly determines the short-term direction; the divergence in the US stock AI sector influences medium-term risk appetite sentiment; and institutional additions of spot ETPs bring expected capital inflows as long-term support.
The trigger for the bullish scenario is if tonight's PCE data is below or meets expectations. If inflation slows, market concerns about a Fed rate hike in September will ease, risk appetite will rebound, prompting short covering and pushing prices to test previous resistance levels. A variable to watch is whether US Treasury yields quickly fall after the data release; if yields rise instead, the bullish scenario is invalidated.
The trigger for the bearish scenario is if the PCE data exceeds expectations. If inflation rebounds, the hawkish logic of the three votes for a rate hike will be confirmed, and the probability of a September hike could jump from the current 30% to over 50%. Expectations of tightening liquidity will directly trigger leveraged position liquidations. At this time, it is necessary to observe the defensive strength of large long positions around $62,000; if this level breaks down with volume and no support, a downtrend will be established.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley's launch of Ethereum and SOL spot ETPs is a long-term positive that may hedge macro negatives in the short term and ease selling pressure on altcoins. If the low correlation between crypto assets and the Nasdaq continues, the pressure from weak AI earnings in US stocks will reduce transmission to the crypto market.
The most critical variables to watch in the next 24 hours are the year-over-year and month-over-month PCE growth rates announced at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, as well as the immediate linkage reaction of US Treasury yields and prices thereafter.
#财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ #HYPE遭大额解押减持，一周回落10% #美军空袭伊朗，油价冲高回落Google's earnings signals were completely reversed, but the logic of storage's rise remained unchanged.
The implied signals from Alphabet's earnings report have been completely misinterpreted by the market.
Capital expenditure in the second quarter was $44.9 billion, doubling year-on-year. The full-year guidance has been raised from 180-190 billion to 195-205 billion. Cloud revenue was 24.8 billion yuan, up 82%, with a backlog of cloud orders of 514 billion USD.
Management's exact words — computing power supply remains constrained, demand growth outpaces capacity expansion.
The market has read that "AI capital expenditure returns are questionable," and stock prices have fallen.
But from another perspective—if computing power demand really peaks, Alphabet should not continue to raise capital expenditures or admit that supply cannot keep up with demand.
For storage, this expense means more purchases of servers, HBM, high-capacity RDIMMs, and enterprise-grade SSDs.
Micron is signing long-term contracts, while customers are locking up production capacity.
Sixteen strategic customer agreements covering 2026 to 2030, securing about 20% of DRAM capacity and one-third of NAND capacity.
Customers are willing to trade years of commitments, price floors, and advance payments for capacity, but this is not a sign of peak demand.
If demand is about to be fulfilled, customers do not need to lock up production capacity.
The storage logic hasn't changed.
HBM is still insufficient, server DRAM prices are still rising, and TrendForce predicts contract prices will continue to rise in the third quarter.
When customers lock up capacity with long-term contracts, it means they don't want to cancel orders, but to lock in supply.
My judgment:
South Korea's production capacity has been locked up by long-term contracts, while China is expanding production frantically.
If you don't lack something, you won't sign a long-term agreement.
Something that isn't in short supply won't be expanded aggressively.
The logic of storage isn't storytelling; it's about behavior—long-term contracts are signed, capacity expansion is underway, equipment is being bought.
These actions illustrate the issue more than any research report.
Hold firmly.
After the panic trading is sold off and the chips are cleared, what should rise will still rise.
Buy the moat, ride the bull — Buy the moat, take the long ox.
$SKHY $MU #长鑫存储 #A股 #存储 #半导体 #芯片$BEAT appears to close in the green on the surface, but that does not represent true strength. The price seems stable, yet trading volume has clearly shrunk. Without buying support, a breakout is just empty talk.
🟢 This does not yet look like a full altcoin season. Funds are only rotating into a few selected assets, not spreading across the entire market.
📉 Open interest is declining, volume is flat — traders are no longer blindly chasing gains but are carefully selecting positions.
Current liquidity concentration direction:
🟢 $JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
Core market anchors:
🟠 $BTC — liquidity cornerstone
🔵 $ETH — institutional demand
🟣 $SOL — high beta L1 strength
🤖 $DATA — AI infrastructure
🌐 $WLD — AI + identity narrative
🔥 $HYPE — risk sentiment indicator
🐕 $DOGE / $ZEC — retail activity signals
Directions still lacking momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
True advantage lies not in chasing gains but in discovering where liquidity is quietly accumulating before the main force arrives.
📊 Track capital flows, respect trends, and wait for confirmation signals.
Patience > FOMO. South Korea confirms it will levy crypto earnings starting in 2027
20% tax
The South Korean government has officially confirmed a 20% tax rate on crypto gains starting January 2027. All annual profits exceeding 2.5 million KRW will be taxed, and losses cannot be carried forward. More than 13 million crypto investors will be affected. From
Since 2022, the government has postponed this tax policy three times and stated there will be no further delays.$LA Empty-level explosive pull must satisfy 4 bars simultaneously (currently 0/4):
Price reclaimed above 0.0550 ✘
Binance OI dropped from 3.42 million to <3 million ✘ Gate fee converged from -0.03% to near zero ✘ Cross-exchange fee synchronization (Binance/OKX/Gate in the same direction) ✘ Benchmark judgment: bearish decline (50%)> flat pin insertion (35%)> heavy volume plunge (15%) Uniswap has launched new features to support
Robinhood chain
Uniswap announced the launch of new Launches
The first supported chain is Robinhood. This feature aims to simplify token discovery, potentially improving market efficiency, but it could also increase speculative risk.After the bursting of a tech bubble, the cycle of industry recovery remains unchanged. #VoiceTrading: Your experience deserves to be heard
Reviewing the 2000 internet bubble and the reshuffling of the new energy sector, all waves of technological innovation followed a highly consistent recovery path after the bubble burst.
The bursting of a bubble has never been the end of technology; it's just a one-time clearing of capital frenzy.
The full cycle is divided into four stages: rapid broad drops and collapses→ long-term declines with differentiation→ capacity clearing and bottoming out→ and performance-driven recovery.
First stage plunge: tightening liquidity combined with earnings falsification, indiscriminate valuation cuts across all sectors, most rebounds are bullish inducements, blindly bottom-fishing leads to huge losses.
The second stage, differentiation and clearing, is also the most critical stage: the market abandons storytelling, and pricing standards shift to cash flow versus real orders. A large number of purely thematic companies have permanently declined, industry consolidation is accelerating, and leading players continue to capture market share. Funds have gradually flowed from the previously hyped terminal applications to infrastructure, upstream hardware, and enterprise service sectors.
The core signs of bottoming out: stabilized profits for leading companies, alleviated industry price wars, and the financing environment no longer deteriorating.
A true recovery market is fundamentally different from a bubble market:
Bubble growth relies on valuation expansion, while recovery and rally rely on earnings performance. For indices to reclaim previous highs, it often takes years or even more than a decade, and only a few leaders with barriers and stable profitability can weather the cycle.
The most important consensus: no matter how promising the long-term prospects of the sector are, it cannot resist the defoaming caused by excessive capital exhaustion; Short-term sentiment determines ups and downs; in the long run, only tangible commercial returns can sustain a sustained market.When the alarm goes off in the morning, the first thing I do isn't get up, but check the coin price
BTC 64034
It dropped a little
No surprises or fright
Then I checked yesterday's market
I discovered a particularly interesting phenomenon
Microsoft lowered its capital expenditure forecast
After hours, it rose by 8. 5%
SpaceX secured a massive order worth 1.6 billion
The stock price has plummeted
The pricing logic is completely opposite for the same market
Microsoft cuts budgets but improves efficiency, and the market is paying a premium
SpaceX took a big but, but its profit margin was locked in and discounted by the market
Then guess what
This logic also applies to encryption
Some projects look good on data but their prices don't rise
Some projects look like they're on the verge of collapse, but funds are flowing in
The problem is, you have to figure it out
What exactly is the market pricing in?
Is it growth or efficiency?
Is it revenue or profit?
Currently, the market is fluctuating with reduced volume
Funds are extremely picky
Not all good news will go up
Not all bad news will drop
Next, let's take a quick look at the latest hot topics and chat casually:
#微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading
Microsoft's capital expenditures have slightly decreased, but Azure's cloud revenue has surpassed 100 billion, growing 43%, with the market offering an efficiency premium
This indicates that AI investment has reached a turning point from quantity to quality, and spending more money is no longer better
For the crypto AI sector, this is a screening signal; projects with real income will emerge
AI coins that burn money but produce no output may be repriced by the market
#SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy between two camps
The 1.6 billion yuan order locked in profit margins was instead unlockedDuring the afternoon meeting, I secretly glanced at my phone and almost shouted it out loud in front of the leader
HYPE fell 10% in one week
The whale is frantically uncovering and reducing holdings
But Hyperliquid's protocol revenue continues to grow
Contract trading volume has not shrunk either
This is interesting
The fundamentals haven't worsened
Yet prices are falling
What does that mean?
Short-term selling pressure and long-term value are in conflict
The whale is cashing out and exiting
But new users are still coming in
Then guess what
BTC 64,034, down 0.75%
ETH 1903, down 0.95%
SOL 73.4, down 1.08%
The overall market volume shrank
Fake ones have fallen even harder than big pies
This is not a problem unique to HYPE
But HYPE is a rather unique stock
It has real protocol revenue
There is an active user base
It's not just about storytelling
So the current decline
It feels more like profit-taking is being realized rather than fundamentals deteriorating
By the way, I also took a look at recent developments, which are in several directions:
#HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week
Multicoin unstaked 1.97 million HYPE, worth 108 million, which is indeed a strong selling pressure signal
However, Hyperliquid's daily contract trading volume and protocol revenue remain active on the growth chain
Short-term selling vs. long-term inflow depends on which has greater strength
My strategy is not to take Flying Knife or wait until the unbet wave has mostly been digested before reconsidering
#英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt
The joint action of NVIDIA and Google to guarantee the debt of AI data centers is a very strong signal
This indicates that the cash flow of these AI infrastructures has been verified to a level suitable for debt financing
For the crypto AI sector, this is a long-term positive for capital flows
Although the market is not pricing in the short term, this trend will not reverse
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion
The 30-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has dropped to a nearly six-month low
Previously, Pancake and US stocks were gone, but now they're going their own ways
The core drivers shifted from macro liquidity to ETF liquidity and on-chain supply and demand
If PCE is negative but BTC doesn't fall, then the decoupling is confirmed
Once confirmed, it marks the beginning of independent pricing for crypto assets
So my judgment is
HYPE's decline is due to structural selling pressure, not fundamental deterioration
The funding conditions for AI infrastructure are rapidly improving
The trend of BTC decoupling from US stocks is worth continuing to watch
Mainly controlling positions before PCE is implemented
$BTC $ETH $SOL #HYPE #脱钩I just finished lunch and casually checked the market quotes, and my mouth almost spat out the food
It's not that the market has gone up
It's the Fed's news that is just too explosive
Three votes against a 25bp hike
The entire market was stunned
Previously, the FOMC was unanimously approved or at most one vote against
Now, three direct votes against it
What does this mean?
The Fed is no longer monolithic
The hawks have been holding back for a long time
This time, he finally slammed the table
Then guess what
BTC 64,034, down 0.75%
The big cake collapsed
But it hasn't gone up either
The market is digesting this signal
Also waiting for tonight's PCE
If PCE exceeds expectations
Then the logic of three rate hikes holds true
The probability of a rate hike in September will be fully maxed out
If the PCE meets or falls short of expectations
then these three votes might just be hawks making their statements
So tonight's data is crucial
There are a few other hot topics worth discussing today:
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
Three votes against is rare in recent FOMC history, indicating that internal divisions have reached a fever pitch
The market previously priced in a dovish path, but now it needs to be recalibrated
PCE data will be released at 8:30 tonight. If it exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September will jump directly from 30% to 50%+
This is not good news for BTC; a high interest rate environment is always a headwind for risk assets
#银行业联名施压, the terms of CLARITY stablecoin may be regenerated
Traditional banks have finally lost patience because the stablecoin provisions of the CLARITY Act have hurt their profits
BlackRock and Fidelity support compliance, but banks are desperately lobbying to amend specific terms
This tug-of-war indicates that stablecoins have reached a stage where they truly influence the financial landscape
The compliance paths for USDC and USDT directly affect the inflow of funds into the crypto market
#财报观察员: Microsoft's cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging?
Microsoft's Azure cloud revenue surpassed 100 billion, rising 8.5% after hours, but Meta's guidance caused the stock price to drop 10%.
The same AI narrative has two completely different market reactions
The reason is that Microsoft's AI investment efficiency is high, while Meta is still in the cash-burning phase
For the crypto AI sector, this means selecting projects; not all AI concept coins have fundamental support
So my judgment is
Uncertainty on the macro level is increasing
PCE is the most critical data in the short term
The direction of the CLARITY Act determines the compliance dividends for the stablecoin sector
The AI track requires careful selection, not blind buying
$BTC $ETH $SOL #PCE #宏观I've been watching since yesterday afternoon, my eyes are almost blind now
The correlation between BTC and Nasdaq has dropped significantly
I've been tracking the data for two days
Previously, BTC and Nasdaq moved up and down together
Recently, they have started to go their separate ways
When Nasdaq futures fall, BTC doesn't really follow
When US stocks rise, BTC also doesn't really rise
This is not decoupling
This is a complete start of an independent trend
And guess what
BTC at 64034, down 0.75%
Nasdaq futures also fell
But the logic behind the two declines is different
US stocks fell due to AI expectation adjustments and interest rate concerns
BTC fell because the market is waiting for the PCE
The driving factors are completely different now
Before, when US stocks fell, BTC fell too
Now, when US stocks fall, their own coins fall separately
Each going their own way
But whether the decoupling is real or an illusion
Depends on the performance after the PCE
If PCE is bearish and BTC doesn't fall, then the decoupling is real
If it still falls together, it's just a coincidence, not a trend
Also, let's see what everyone has been talking about recently:
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象
The 30-day correlation between BTC and Nasdaq has dropped to a recent low
A lack of synchronization indicates market pricing logic is diverging
The previous macro linkage logic was the US dollar liquidity narrative
Now BTC is starting to have its own rhythm influenced by ETF capital flows and on-chain supply and demand
Whether it's true decoupling or just a waiting effect before PCE will be clear after PCE
#韩股波动剧烈引监管介入，财长为杠杆ETF道歉
The sharp drop in Korean stocks caused a leveraged ETF stampede, and the finance minister publicly apologized—this is historically rare
Korean retail investors lost even worse than in March 2020
The dual blow of won depreciation pressure and leveraged liquidations
But historical experience tells us that after such extreme panic, capital often flows into global assets
Crypto could be the next beneficiary
#摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETP
Morgan Stanley launching ETH and SOL spot ETPs at this time is quite intriguing
FOMC leaning hawkish, Korean stocks plunging, PCE not yet released
Institutions positioning at this node shows they are looking long-term, not short-term
ETH and SOL being selected simultaneously confirms their status in institutional allocations
For retail investors, following the institutions' long-term logic is more reliable than short-term trading
So my judgment is
The trend of BTC decoupling from US stocks is forming but not fully confirmed
PCE is the touchstone
Potential inflows from Korean stocks and institutional ETP paving the way are medium-term positives
Defend short-term, layout long-term
$BTC $ETH $SOL #脱钩 #独立行情 Last night I had a dream—the coin had gone up, and when I woke up, it really had gone up
Then take a closer look
The price has risen is Microsoft, not my position
Microsoft rose 8.5% in after-hours trading.
Because Azure cloud revenue has surpassed 100 billion yuan
However, capital expenditures have actually slightly decreased
The market liked this efficiency story
So a premium was given
But on the other side, Micron plunged 11%
This is the allure of the memory chip cycle
When prices rise, they start to question their lives
When it falls, it also makes you question your life
Then guess what
BTC 64,034, down 0.75%
ETH 1903, down 0.95%
SOL 73.4, down 1.08%
The market is falling on a slight side with shrinking volume
The altcoins are even more dismal
HYPE fell 10% over the week
Because of large-amount mortgage releases and share reductions
The whales are cashing out
This market is not a general up-and-down market
But the structure is extremely differentiated
Choose the right track to get the benefits
Choosing the wrong track and getting criticized
Let's also chat about a few trending topics to see if any of them are worth following:
#美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain?
Micron fell 11% due to weaker memory cycle expectations, but demand for HBM from AI continues to grow
The differences among Samsung, Hynix, and Micron lie in the differing proportions of traditional storage and AI storage
Micron's AI proportion is relatively low, so it fell the hardest
Currently, valuations have returned to a reasonable range, but bottom-fishing is a different concept
Wait until the storage side stabilizes before reconsidering the safer thing than rushing in now
#HYPE遭大额解押减持, a 10% drop in one week
HYPE fell 10% this week, mainly due to uncollateral selling pressure
MulI couldn't sleep at 3 a.m., constantly thinking about this matter
What are the AI giants doing?
NVIDIA and Google have joined forces to guarantee AI data center debt
The amount is directly in the hundreds of millions
Although Microsoft has lowered its capital expenditure forecast,
But after hours, it rose 8.5%
Because Azure cloud revenue has surpassed 100 billion yuan
What does this indicate?
The AI arms race hasn't stopped
Only the flower technique has changed
Then guess what
BTC 64034, down 0.75%
ETH 1903，SOL 73.4
The market barely moved
But the atmosphere for AI-related tokens is quite different
Think about it
Companies of the same scale as Nvidia and Google
Willing to guarantee debts
This shows that the cash flow of AI data centers is truly stable
Only banks would dare to take such orders
This level of capital flows into infrastructure
This is positive for the entire tech ecosystem
Including the AI track within crypto
But the problem is
The market isn't pricing this at all right now
Everyone is waiting for PCE
Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, with several directions worth watching:
#英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt
This is a signal of real money, not just empty talk
The joint guarantee between NVIDIA and Google means that the profitability of AI data centers has been rigorously verified
For the crypto AI sector, this is a long-term liquidity endorsement
However, in the short term, all market attention has not yet been reflected in macro data
#微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading
Microsoft's move is quite interesting: total capital expenditure slightly decreased, but Azure grew by 43%.$BTC dropped from 124K to 58K in 254 days. Silver fell from 121 to 54, taking 180 days. But SK Hynix fell from 1977 to 884 in just 35 days, while Micron fell from 1255 to 727 in 35 days and kept falling. This speed is like turning on an accelerator. The crash in AI stocks isn't just shrinking slowly—it's being cut in half, more than three times faster than the worst bear market for $BTC. Many people still fantasize that AI can support the next bull market, but looking at these figures, the semiconductor and memory chip bubbles are even more fragile than imagined. SK Hynix and Micron Technology are both core players in the AI industry chain, but their plunges from their peaks have exceeded 40%, wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value. This is not a simple pullback, but panic selling. The $BTC halved in 254 days, giving retail investors a chance to slowly buy the dip, but AI stocks fell the same in just 35 days, leaving no time to react. This is the efficiency of the AI era—even a crash is so efficient. The market is voting with its feet, losing patience with overvalued tech stocks. When funds trample out of the AI sector, will it be the turn of cryptocurrencies? $BTC is still fluctuating around 64K, but against the backdrop of tightening global liquidity, no asset can remain unaffected. Don't think it's only stocks that are struggling—the crypto world can also be dragged down. $BTC #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? My mindset collapsed, truly collapsed, completely collapsed
The Fed did not raise rates this time
But three votes against it advocated for an additional 25bp
This was unimaginable before
Previously, it was unanimously approved or at most one vote against
Now, the three of them are slamming the table to demand a rate hike
This indicates that the FOMC is already divided internally
Even more outrageous, there was a PCE tonight
The market is waiting for the data
I'm waiting too
Then guess what
BTC 64034, down 0.75% in 24 hours
ETH 1903，SOL 73.4
The big bing shook up all day
It's not exactly a collapse, but a dull knife cuts the flesh the most
And look at this rate
BTC contract fees are close to zero
The contract market is as cold as an ice cellar
No one dared to go long, nor did anyone dare to short it
Everyone is waiting for tonight's data
I was wondering if I could buy the dip
But now, looking at the environment
Three rate hikes + PCE unknown + geopolitical tensions
This really isn't a good time to bottom-fish
Looking through today's plate, there are a few interesting points:
#美军空袭伊朗, oil prices surged and then retreated
When the US military really took action, oil prices instantly soared and then fell again
But on the crypto side, BTC hasn't even moved by $100
In the past, this would have been a sign of a big price plunge
Decoupling is becoming increasingly obvious
The impact of geopolitical conflicts on crypto is rapidly diminishing
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight
The three opposing votes were far more than the market expected
Previously, it passed unanimously, now three votes against
This shift itself is a big signal
The probability of a rate hike in September is already being priced in
Interest rate futures are also availableThe storage cycle has ended: Phase 2 thinking logic
AI demand has not disappeared, but the logic of capital expenditure is changing. In the past, there was a frenzy of building new data centers; now it is more likely to improve the utilization of existing data centers, increase leasing ratios, and slow down the pace of new construction.
GPUs still need to be purchased, but the marginal demand for data centers, power, optical modules, and storage has already begun to change.
The biggest characteristic of storage is that price increases suppress demand, while capacity expansion brings supply. Once cloud providers' capital expenditures stabilize, and Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continue to expand production, the market speculation will no longer be about AI demand but about who will face oversupply first.
Stock declines do not mean demand has disappeared but that growth is slowing. The real risk has always been marginal changes, not absolute demand.
Logic:
* Microsoft leases more mature data centers rather than building their own.
* Oracle's capital expenditure and debt are rapidly rising to compete for AI orders, but it cannot leverage indefinitely.
* Meta's capital expenditure is already at a historical high this year, so future growth will naturally slow.
* Cloud providers' capital expenditure growth is slowing;
* The leasing ratio of data centers continues to rise;
* Samsung and SK Hynix continue to expand production;
* DRAM and NAND prices continue to be under pressure;
* AWS and Google will not expand at 50% or 60% annually every year. $SNDK Today Top Gainers on OKX: Strong Momentum Across Crypto and Tokenized Equities
Today's market is seeing broad strength, with both crypto assets and tokenized equities posting impressive gains. The latest leaderboard highlights sustained momentum across multiple sectors
Top Performers:
• $GRVT: +343.00% at $0.2215 The session's standout performer, recording exceptional price expansion alongside over $6.08M in turnover
• $xSNDK: +23.96% at $1,252.04 Tokenized SanDisk continues to advance, reflecting strong momentum in the semiconductor space
• $MMT: +23.92% at $0.2383 A sharp move higher supported by growing trading activity
• $xSOXL: +23.75% at $114.63 The leveraged semiconductor ETF extends its rally as strength in technology-related assets persists
• $xIREN: +22.34% at $37.13 Another tokenized equity delivering a strong performance during today's session
• $CARDS: +19.98% at $0.1537 The asset continues to build momentum after attracting increased market participation
• $xSKHY: +17.58% at $148.68 Tokenized SK hynix remains firmly in positive territory, reinforcing bullish sentiment across semiconductor-related assets
The current leaderboard shows that capital is rotating across both digital assets and tokenized traditional equities, with technology and semiconductor-linked products continuing to outperform
Which asset on today's top gainers list has caught your attention the most?
#AIStoryDiverges #MSFTCutsCapex #Fed3Dissents xSKHY/USDT Price Prediction & Technical Analysis
The daily chart for xSKHY/USDT (Tokenized SK Hynix ADR) is showing a strong bounce back today after dropping sharply from its high. Here is what the numbers and chart patterns indicate:
Key Market Stats
Current Price: ~$XSKHY 148.60 (+17.51% today)
24h Range: $122.00 – $149.63
Recent Support (Low): $114.75
Recent Resistance (High): $177.80#Fed3Dissents #OKXTraderVoices On July 30, 2026, Microsoft’s stock price surged over 15% in after-hours and the following day’s trading, becoming the brightest focus in global markets. This surge was the result of three converging positive factors: comprehensive earnings beating expectations, AI commercialization delivering results, and easing concerns over capital expenditures.
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📊 Earnings Completely Exceed Expectations
After U.S. market close on July 29, Microsoft released its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report, with core data surpassing expectations across the board:
· Revenue of $90.01 billion, up 18% year-over-year, well above the expected $87.72 billion
· Adjusted EPS of $4.74, up 23% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $4.24
· Net profit of $35.8 billion, up 31% year-over-year
· Operating income of $40.6 billion, up 18% year-over-year
The market’s biggest surprise was that profits were not eaten up by AI investments—revenue and profit growth occurred simultaneously, with massive AI spending not eroding earnings.
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☁️ Azure Cloud Business: Fastest Growth in Four Years, Annual Revenue Surpasses $100 Billion
The most closely watched Azure cloud business delivered impressive results:
· Azure revenue grew 43% year-over-year, exceeding the expected 40%, marking the fastest growth in four years
· Intelligent Cloud segment revenue reached $39.3 billion, up 32% year-over-year
· Azure’s annualized revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time
· Microsoft 365 Copilot paid users exceeded 30 million, up from 20 million last quarter
· Cloud business backlog reached $678 billion, up about $50 billion quarter-over-quarter
CEO Nadella stated this reflects customer trust in Microsoft’s AI-driven transformation. Growth benefited from easing compute bottlenecks and increased enterprise AI adoption.
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💰 Capital Expenditures: Decreased Instead of Increased, Easing the Market’s Biggest Concern
Massive AI capital spending has been the biggest drag on tech stocks. On the earnings call, Microsoft announced fiscal 2027 capital expenditures are expected to be $175 billion, below the previous estimate of $190 billion.
Microsoft became the first major tech giant not to raise its capital expenditure guidance. Previously, Google raised its guidance by $15 billion, and Tesla also increased its forecast.
After this announcement, after-hours stock gains quickly expanded to over 7%—the market interpreted this as Microsoft’s AI investments entering a harvest phase rather than being a bottomless capital drain.
---
📈 Market Reaction: Sentiment Reversal, Sharp Contrast with Meta
On the same day Microsoft reported earnings, Meta also released its report. Despite revenue beating expectations, Meta’s Q3 revenue guidance fell short and free cash flow plunged 91%, causing its stock to drop over 7% after hours.
In the same market and moment, Microsoft surged 15% while Meta plunged—marking a watershed moment in AI investment logic:
· Microsoft: Investments converted into revenue and profit; AI is starting to "make money"
· Meta: Investments erode profits; AI is still "burning cash"
Pave Finance’s Chief Investment Officer bluntly said, "One company increased profits alongside heavy spending, while the other let those costs erode its profit base."
The semiconductor sector, which had previously plunged over AI investment return concerns, also staged a broad rebound. KCM Trade’s Chief Market Analyst said, "Microsoft’s strong earnings brought some relief and made the market see that tech stocks still have room to rise."
---
⚠️ Risk Warnings
· Valuation remains high: After the surge, Microsoft’s stock price is close to its June peak, and short-term pullback risk cannot be ignored
· Capacity constraints persist: Microsoft stated cloud growth is limited by capacity, expected to last until the end of 2026
· Long-term capital expenditure pressure: Data center lease contracts have reached $329.1 billion, maintaining long-term spending pressure
· Macro uncertainties: Fed internal divisions are increasing, and geopolitical risks remain disruptive factors
The core logic behind this surge is that the market finally sees AI shifting from a "burning cash story" to a "making money story." Whether this logic can sustain still requires validation from future earnings reports.
$MSFT #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ The Week the Agent Economy Got Real
Bot traffic passed human traffic on the open web for the first time ever.
Coinbase shipped agent payments to every business on its platform.
Every major wallet went agent-native inside four weeks.
None of it solved what agents are actually short of.
The last eight weeks:
3 June: Cloudflare's CEO reports automated traffic at 57.5% of HTTP requests against 42.5% human, roughly 18 months ahead of his own forecast
23 July: Coinbase opens agent-initiated USDC acceptance to every Business merchant, plus an x402 SDK that adds payment acceptance in three lines of code
Same window: MetaMask, OKX, Coinbase and BNB Chain all go agent-native, and 27 companies back a dispute court for agents
Wallets, rails, chains, arbitration. All standardised, in public, on open specs.
Not one of them lets an agent read a page that doesn't want to be read.
And on 15 September, Cloudflare starts blocking mixed-use AI crawlers by default.
That's the constraint we've been building against:
#DailyOrbit The moment the soil was dug up by the probe, I smelled the exact same burnt scent as on the eve of the fall of the Babylonian city-state three thousand years ago—that was the sound of the kings who madly built the Tower of Babel pouring the last box of gold coins into the alchemy furnace.
The undercurrents of after-hours trading are very much like the dark market auctions in the outskirts of Cairo late at night where no light is seen. While other tech giants are still frantically smashing their treasuries into unknown black-box temples, causing the temples to collapse (stock price plunged nearly 7% after hours), Microsoft, the seasoned imperial pharaoh, calmly and unhurriedly revealed its new sacred relic amid the panic, donning a dazzling golden mask.
Q4 revenue reached $90.01 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase; Azure, like an underground river that never runs dry, not only broke the $10 billion mark but also crushed all prophets with a 43% growth rate. But what truly left the tomb raiders lurking outside dumbfounded was that it became the first giant to dare to "pull back the digging shovel" on its 2027 fiscal year capital expenditure guidance.
Throughout this entire archaeological era, the lords pushed capital expenditures up 70% to $41 billion to forge totems leading to the future era of intelligent spirits, causing the stock price to lose up to 18% within the year. The market, like ancient refugees fearing famine, fled in panic at the mere mention of "infinite money burning without any miracles landing." However, Microsoft's "cutting military spending and collecting more tribute" retreat strategy directly triggered an after-hours surge of over 8.5%.
This is by no means a signal of civilization halting but rather the wise respite of an ancient dynasty during a long campaign. Turning the gaze back to the constantly trembling candlestick chart of the leveraged token $XSOXL, this is a sign of tectonic plate fractures deep underground. While other believers are still filling the void of oracles with real gold and silver, the old empire has already begun taxing pilgrims at the temple gates.
Pharaohs who first learn to reduce the scale of their tombs often survive the coldest winter solstice.
#MSFTCutsCapex The oldest trick on stage isn't pulling a rabbit out of a hat, but making you stare at the direction it falls—wrong.
Microsoft's numbers look as neat as a stacked deck, each card seemingly an Ace on the surface. Revenue at 90.01 billion, Azure up 43%, annual revenue breaking 100 billion, and those bespectacled Wall Street guys are rubbing their eyes to confirm they aren't seeing things. But what you really should be watching is the mouse quietly slipping out from the sleeve—the FY2027 capital expenditure guidance, which has been cut.
This is not a signal flare that "AI is finally making money." It's the great magician realizing the backstage budget is overspent and preparing to swap the prop box. While the whole circus is screaming to bet on AI, spending big on sequins and smoke machines, Microsoft quietly pulled back a bit on tomorrow's investment budget. Look at Meta's nearly 7% annual plunge last week—that was because the bill was too hot to handle. Meanwhile, Microsoft spent less, earned more, and its stock jumped 8.5%—but these are just two sides of the same coin.
Let me show you the bottom card in this scam: Microsoft's capital expenditure still surged 70%, hitting 41 billion. Oh, and there's a small note saying "down 18% this year." Isn't this a classic sleight of hand? You follow the ball with one finger, while the other hand swaps the entire table underneath.
Has AI really delivered? No one cares about this empty shell. Magic never cares about the rabbit. The truth is, when a money-making machine decides to turn down the engine a bit and save on fuel, the audience below still foolishly applauds—it’s called "carrying the sedan chair" in the card game.
You think XINTC is the knife dividing the cake in the AI narrative? Don't be silly. It's actually the box on stage that the magician has stabbed through—the light shines in from outside, but inside it's empty.
When the biggest dealer starts tightening the belt cautiously, the bottom cards have already been revealed.---
**To get straight to the point: today's tokenized US stock data is not a rebound, but a last burst after the slaughter. **
Among the 5 tokens, 4 rose and 1 fell, with an average increase of **+8.08%**, and a total trading volume of **114 million USD**.
Looks fierce, right?
**But you have to look at the details—volume structure determines everything. **
---
## Step 1: Macro Tone Setting — Not risk-on, but a secondary tear of risk-off
Today, the macro narrative in the U.S. stock market focused on one thing: **The Fed held steady, but PCE inflation fell for the first time in six years. **
Headline 1: "Bitcoin slightly up near $65k amid rates, Iran jitters"
Headline 7: "Bitcoin briefly slips below $62k amid tech sell-off"
See that? **Tech stocks are falling, but BTC is being propped up as a safe-haven asset. **
But tokenized US stock data reveals the real situation:
- **XSNDK** (3x short Nasdaq) traded at $25.58 million**, with a volatility of 28%
- **XSOXL** (3x Short Semi-Lead) Turnover **$8.68 million**, volatility 31%
The difference in trading volume between the two is huge: the trading volume of shorting ETFs is **3 times** that of longing ETFs.
What does this tell you?
**Funds are systematically shorting tech stocks, rather than bottom-fishing. ** The rally in long ETFs is just a rebound from short covering, not new buying in.
---
## Step 2: Capital Flow — Smart money is heading toward innovation and short-selling
Next, let's look at the sector structure:
- **XSKHY** (ARK Innovation ETF) rose **+13.82%**, trading volume **$7.28 million**, volatility 21%
- **XSPCX** (PC Industry) fell **-3.89%**, trading volume **$10.77 million**, volatility 7%
Innovation and short selling both rose, but the PC industry alone declined.
**This is very much like a 2022 script:**
- FOMO funds are chasing the highs and shorting ETFs (XSNDK)
- Institutions are quietly allocating innovative themes (XSKHY)
- Retail investors are still stubbornly holding the PC industry (XSPCX)
**Money is flowing in two directions: short selling (hedge) + innovation (betting on a rebound). **
The middle ground—traditional industries like PCs—have been abandoned.
---
## Step 3: Crypto Positioning — BTC as the "Silent Spectator"
BTC today is **$64,863, +0.52%**, with a fear index of **28**.
**28 is extreme fear. **
But looking at tokenized US stock data, you'll find that BTC's stability is not 'strong', but rather 'uncontestable.'
US stocks are fighting: the Nasdaq is being smashed, ETF short selling surges, and semiconductors are rebounding.
BTC suddenly collapsed at 64,000, without any significant fluctuations.
**What does this mean? **
**Smart money in the crypto market is watching from the sidelines. ** Unlike US stock funds, they don't dare to go all-in on tokenized ETFs, because BTC's liquidity and depth are not yet enough to support such short-term battles.
BTC's current role is: **waiting to be dragged down or driven by US stocks, but not proactively. ** It is neither a safe-haven nor a risk asset—it is a 'follower.'
---
## Step 4: Resonance Closing — You're in the casino, but you don't even dare to roll the dice
Today's data tells you a harsh truth:
**U.S. stock funds have found a new casino—tokenized ETFs. ** They bet on one direction in XSNDK and XSOXL, earning 17% or losing 31% in a day.
And you're still staring blankly at the 64,000 candlestick in BTC, with a fear index of 28 and unclear funding rates.
**You don't dare to move because you're afraid. But what good does it do? **
When Wall Street traders go all-in on shorting the Nasdaq in tokenized U.S. stocks, you haven't even set a stop-loss yet.
**Either follow the capital and bet on directional direction in tokenized US stocks, or keep waiting to die in BTC. ** But you have to choose one.
I chose XSNDK for long positions, with 3x leverage and half position.
**If you bet wrong, you admit it; if you bet right, you eat. ** Better than wasting time on BTC.
---During panic selling in the storage sector, Moody's upgraded $MU rating to Baa1, with divergences between rating agencies and market sentiment forming the core conflict at present.
Market facts: SK Hynix's earnings fell short of expectations, causing storage stocks to fall 3%-4% across the board, but before the US market opened, Micron, SanDisk, Seagate, and others all turned positive. Seagate rose 4.6%, Western Digital rose 2.2%, and panic quickly recovered.
Driver Rankings: The first layer is the credit improvement signal from Moody's rating upgrade, meaning rating agencies are positively assessing Micron's medium-term cash flow and balance sheet, directly lowering its financing cost expectations; The second layer is the completion of $15 billion loan negotiations for Anthropic data centers, with Google providing financial guarantees and chip support. The structural impact of AI computing power expansion on HBM's high-end memory continues; The third layer is the narrative of a cyclical peak caused by SK Hynix's performance miss, with the weight of this tier depending on subsequent contract price increase data.
Trigger conditions for the upward scenario: Q3 storage contract price increases meet or exceed original manufacturers' guidance, the proportion of long-term orders locked in original manufacturers remains high, and AI capital expenditure guidance has not been revised downward. Under these conditions, an upward Moody's rating would be interpreted by the market as a leading signal, and the pre-market rebound is likely to continue as a trend correction. The failure signal is that contract prices in the third quarter remained flat or fell quarter-on-quarter, and long-term order lock-in has loosened.
Trigger for a downward scenario: SK Hynix's poor performance is not an isolated case. Micron's Q4 guidance may fall short of expectations, or major cloud vendors may lower their AI capital spending plans during earnings season. In this situation, Moody's rating upgrade would be seen as a credit assessment inertia lagging behind the cycle turning point, turning the pre-market rebound into a window for selling goods. The failure signal is that multiple cloud providers have simultaneously raised their capital expenditure guidance, and the HBM supply-demand gap data has been confirmed by third-party institutions to widen.
The volatility scenario also holds: if AI demand data remains strong but traditional DRAM/NAND prices weaken, structural divergence between high-end and low-end storage occurs, Micron may repeatedly struggle within the current price range, with rating upgrades offset by cyclical concerns.
Under the Fed's hawkish stance, overall risk assets are under pressure as an additional suppressive variable. This factor is independent of the fundamentals of the storage industry but affects capital allocation to risk appetite in the semiconductor sector.
The most critical variable to watch in the next seven days: market rumors about Q3 storage contract price increases, the direction of AI capital spending guidance in major cloud vendors' earnings, and whether Micron's management will publicly respond to Moody's rating upgrade.
#摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETP #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入, the finance minister apologized for leveraged ETFsOn July 30, an "epic" major rebound occurred during U.S. trading — the Nasdaq index rose over 2%, the S&P 500 gained about 1%, and the Dow Jones rose about 200 points; The Philadelphia semiconductor index surged as much as 9% intraday, strongly reclaiming ground lost from the previous trading day. Although gains were given back late due to geopolitical disruptions, the positive signals sent during the session were very clear.
---
1. Economic Data: The Perfect Goldilocks Combination
Data released on July 30 outlines an ideal picture of "growth slowing but not hot, inflation cooling but not declining":
· GDP slowed moderately: The annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of Q2 GDP was 1.5%, which was below expectations, but personal consumption expenditure grew by 3.2% and corporate investment grew by 8.4%, indicating strong domestic demand
· PCE inflation fell more than expected: core PCE rose only 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%; Overall PCE fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly decline since 2020
· Labor market remains robust: initial jobless claims were 197,000, below the expected 200,000
This is exactly the signal the market has been longing for—the economy remains resilient, inflation continues to cool, and the Fed has no reason to tighten further.
---
2. Corporate Financial Reports: AI Confidence Fully Returns
Microsoft: Concerns about AI capital spending have been completely dispelled
Microsoft's after-hours earnings exceeded expectations across the board: Q4 revenue was $90 billion (expected $87.6 billion), earnings per share were $4.81 (expected $4.24). Intelligent cloud revenue was $39.3 billion, up 31.6%; Azure cloud business growth accelerated from 40% to 43%, with full-year revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time. Nadella clearly stated, "Customers are leveraging Microsoft platforms to drive AI transformation." The stock price surged nearly 15% in after-hours trading.
Microsoft's financial report sends a core message to the market: massive AI investments are turning into tangible revenue growth, rather than bottomless capital expenditure.
Semiconductors: Explosive rebound across the board
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 9% intraday, Micron and SK Hynix rose over 16%, AMD rose nearly 16%, Intel gained over 14%, and TSMC gained over 8%. Previously, the market worried that AI capital expenditure would "only show investment but no return," and Microsoft's performance proved that the AI payback cycle might be shorter than expected.
---
3. Federal Reserve: Not raising interest rates is the biggest positive
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. Despite three opposing votes, the interest rate itself was not raised. Federal Reserve Chair Wash stated that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields has "helped the Fed accomplish quite a bit of work."
More importantly, the core PCE in June was only 0.1% month-on-month, already within the "below 0.2%" comfort range previously recognized by Fed officials. Market expectations for a rate hike in September have significantly declined.
---
4. Institutional View: The Bull Market Remains Intact
· Wells Fargo: "Despite short-term volatility, the outlook for U.S. stocks remains constructive. Strong corporate earnings, sustained AI adoption, and economic resilience will all provide support. ”
· Truist Advisory: "The recent weakness is more like a readjustment in an overheated market, rather than a major uptrend being disrupted." The bull market remains intact. ”
· UBS: "We remain optimistic about AI's long-term growth story." ”
---
⚠️ Tip
The late plunge was mainly impacted by Trump's remarks on the Middle East situation—this is geopolitical noise, not fundamental deterioration. Geopolitical risks are ultimately short-term disturbances; what determines the medium- to long-term trend of US stocks is always economic fundamentals, corporate earnings, and inflation trends.
For these three dimensions, the data and financial reports on July 30 have already provided the most positive answers.Based on the latest data as of the close on Thursday, July 30, 2026, SK Hynix US Stock (SKHY) just experienced a surge of over 16% on Thursday, July 30, closing at $147.415.
Regarding tomorrow's trend, the current pre-market signals are positive: as of pre-market on July 31, the chip sector continued to rise collectively, with SK Hynix up 3.21%.
Based on institutional views and recent developments, the possible scenario analysis for tomorrow's trend is as follows:
· Short-term Strong Backdrop: The direct catalyst for yesterday's surge was Samsung's supply tightening warning, combined with strong AI demand and Microsoft's positive earnings report. However, note that the stock has been highly volatile recently, with a 52-week low of $124.80.
· Institutional Disagreement and Price Targets: There is a strong consensus among institutions to be optimistic in the long term, but there is a gap in short-term views.
· Optimists: UBS has given a 'Buy' rating and a target price of $204, believing the market has underestimated the structural improvement in storage industry profitability. Analysts have consolidated a 12-month average price target of $252-$281.
· Cautious: Morningstar lowered its fair value to $152, believing that the price increases of traditional memory chips may slow down. Korean institutions also lowered their target prices due to caution.
Overall, with pre-market rally and strong momentum, the probability of an inertia rally tomorrow is considerable, but the $147-150 range (close to previous IPO pricing) may face short-term pressure. The key risk lies in the highly volatile sentiment in the semiconductor sector, so be cautious of a pullback after a rally.
Investing carries risks. The above analysis does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions based on your own situation $SNDK $SKHYNIX $ETH SK Hynix's script this week is nothing short of dramatic. On July 29, Q2 financial report was released: revenue of 79.32 trillion KRW, operating profit of 60.54 trillion KRW, net profit of 93.92 trillion KRW—all quarterly highs. Logically, it should have gone up. As a result, it plunged more than 19.3% intraday, setting a new record for the largest single-day drop in history. Why? Performance did not meet market expectations. Moreover, this expectation was already very high, and funds collectively withdrew at the moment the "good news was exhausted." Even worse, the Korean stock market plunged 8% that day, while Changxin topped the A-share market on its first listing, showing a clear blood-draining effect. My first reaction after reading this: it's not SK that's the problem, it's that 'expectation management' has collapsed. Q1 already raised expectations too high, and no matter how high Q2 is, it won't meet expectations. On the derivatives side, SKHYNIX contracts have high positions in Hyperliquid and Binance, and OKX has $82.14 million. At times like this, high leverage = high volatility, so retail investors shouldn't get involved. Have you ever experienced a "good financial report but a sharp drop"? Share your thoughts in the comments to let beginners know how steep the gap between expectations can be. #SK海力士 #财报 #预期差 #股票永续##美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain? Analysis of global macro data and policy decisions as of July 30, 2026
---
1. U.S. Economy: Slowing Growth and Cooling Inflation Coexist
1. GDP growth was significantly below expectations
The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of real GDP for the second quarter of the U.S. was only 1.5%, far below the market expectation of 2.1%, compared to the previous 2.1%. Despite a rebound in consumer spending and robust corporate investment, net exports, which have been volatile between quarters, have dropped sharply, masking the strong fundamentals of U.S. domestic demand.
Looking at the breakdown structure, consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at an annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of 3.2%, and real consumer spending in June rose 0.4% month-on-month, marking the strongest monthly performance in nearly a year. Corporate commercial investment also grew strongly, driven by the artificial intelligence industry—leading tech companies like Meta and Microsoft continue to ramp up their investments in the AI sector and are making large-scale plans for data center construction. Federal Reserve Chairman Wash bluntly stated that the current resilience of the U.S. economy is "impressive," and the sustained strength in business investment is the most striking core feature at this stage.
2. PCE inflation cooled more than expected
In June, the overall PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative growth since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020; Year-on-year growth narrowed from 4.1% in May to 3.7%. Core PCE fell from 3.4% year-on-year to 3.3%, up only 0.1% month-on-month, below the market expectation of 0.2%.
The core driver of cooling is falling energy prices—influenced by the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, international oil prices have experienced a temporary decline. However, this inflation decline is highly sporadic, the stability of the temporary ceasefire agreement is weak, and international oil prices remain at historically high levels. Core PCE year-on-year at 3.3% remains well above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, and has remained above the target for several consecutive years. The market generally predicts that U.S. inflation will likely remain above 3% throughout the year.
3. Labor market remains resilient
For the week ending July 25, initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 197,000, below economists' forecast of 200,000. The previous week's data was revised upward to 188,000. Continuing jobless claims decreased by 7,000 for the week ending July 18 to 1.782 million. Economists say the labor market is still in a "slow recruitment, slow exit" mode.
4. The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, and internal divisions have significantly widened
In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive rate cut since the December 2025 rate cut.
However, 3 out of 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted against it—Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Hamack, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three votes have been voted in unison, with internal divisions clearly intensifying.
In a statement, the Fed said that despite high uncertainty caused by factors such as the Middle East conflict, economic activity continues to expand steadily, but inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% target. The Fed is caught between "fighting inflation" and "stabilizing growth": on one hand, highly sticky core inflation means inflation risks have not been cleared; On the other hand, continued rate hikes will further suppress economic growth, making the fragile labor market difficult to withstand excessive tightening.
---
2. Bank of England: Rates unchanged, hawkish camp expands
On the same day, the Bank of England announced it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive time holding it unchanged. However, the vote was 6 to 3 (last time 7 to 2), with Green, Mann, and Chief Economist Peel supporting a 25 basis point hike to 4%.
The Bank of England stated that there are "clear signs" indicating domestic inflationary pressures are easing, and currently there is "almost no evidence" that the energy shock has pushed up wage demands and further passed on to prices of other goods and services. Bank of England Governor Bailey said: "There is currently almost no evidence of a second inflationary effect, but it is still too early to be reassured." ”
---
3. Eurozone: GDP rebounded beyond expectations
Eurozone preliminary GDP for the second quarter rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%, with the previous figure revised up from -0.2% to 0%; Year-on-year growth of 1%, also higher than the expected 0.7%. The EU overall saw a 0.5% month-on-month increase. Against the backdrop of global instability triggered by the Iran war, the Eurozone economy has demonstrated resilience beyond expectations.
---
4. Summary: Policy Differentiation and Uncertainty Intertwined
The global macro landscape on July 30 showed sharp divergence:
· US: Growth slowdown (GDP only 1.5%) and cooling inflation (PCE negative month-on-month) occurred, but core inflation remains well above target. The Fed's internal divisions are the largest in recent years, and a rate hike in September cannot be ruled out.
· UK: Interest rates unchanged but hawkish forces are growing, with geopolitical inflation risks and signs of domestic cooling tugging in the air.
· Eurozone: Economic recovery exceeds expectations, showing resilience amid energy shocks.
In the short term, the vulnerability of the temporary US-Iran ceasefire agreement is the biggest variable—once oil prices surge again, the inflationary "illusion" caused by falling energy prices will quickly reverse. The Fed's policy path in the coming months will remain the core focus of global market competition.📊 $BTC is approaching a key decision zone.
Bitcoin is testing resistance near $65K, with a notable liquidation cluster sitting around $64.8K.
While price hasn't confirmed a breakout yet, the underlying derivatives data is becoming more constructive.
Here's what stands out:
🐋 Whale vs. Retail Delta (WRD): Rising — whales appear to be positioning more aggressively than retail.
📈 Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD): Rising — buyers are lifting offers, suggesting genuine market demand.
📊 Open Interest (OI): Rising — unlike Wednesday's move, which was largely driven by short covering ahead of the FOMC, today's increase points to fresh long positioning rather than positions simply being closed.
The key difference is who is driving the move.
Wednesday's rally came as shorts exited.
Today's data suggests larger participants may be opening new long exposure.
That said, price is still sitting at resistance.
The strongest setups occur when market structure and positioning data point in the same direction.
👀 Watch the $64K area closely. If derivatives data remains constructive, any retest of that level could attract buyers and turn it into support.
Opinion only. Not financial advice.
Data: @hyblockcapital
#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #AIStoryDiverges $BTC $ETH $SNDK $SNDK 闪迪 ｜最新美盘盘面完整分析
⚠️风险提示：仅盘面逻辑推演，不构成投资建议。高β NAND存储周期股，通胀数据落地后迎来暴力修复；属于超跌+空头回补+板块共振行情，并非直接趋势反转；波动巨大，8月5日财报临近，冲高回落风险不可忽视。
#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
盘面现状
前期最低下探998，昨日收盘1015；美盘开盘强势拉升，盘中最高冲至1272附近，当前在1250区间运行，单日成交量显著放大，换手率走高，板块内弹性显著强于美光MU。
1、行情本质：无公司突发独立利好，美国GDP、核心PCE通胀数据降温，市场下调9月加息概率，美债收益率回落，成长股估值压力缓解；叠加前期深度超跌，空头集中平仓，触发逼空反弹行情。
2、板块联动：费城半导体指数大幅走强，存储板块集体修复；AI服务器企业级SSD需求叙事重新被资金交易，但属于预期修复，暂无全新重磅订单落地。
3、关键现实：短期快速进入超买区间，上方堆积厚重历史套牢筹码，越向上解套抛压逐步加重。
4、事件临近：8月5日即将发布财报，市场重点关注NAND报价指引、云厂商资本开支情况，财报会对后续方向造成重大影响。
5、中长期压制逻辑仍在：长鑫科技扩产带来供给端担忧并未完全消除，依旧是悬在NAND板块上方的长期变量。
本轮上涨四层驱动
1、宏观催化（根源）：GDP不及预期、核心PCE通胀回落，市场押注美联储9月放弃加息，高利率压制估值的压力阶段性缓解，半导体存储作为高β品种弹性释放。
2、交易层面（直接推手）：前期连续暴跌积累大量空头头寸，风险偏好回暖之后空单集中止损平仓，形成逼空上涨，闪迪流通盘交易活跃，反弹爆发力更强。
3、情绪修复：前期市场过度悲观交易供给冲击，资金开始博弈三季度NAND闪存涨价周期延续，AI数据中心SSD需求逻辑重新回归主线叙事。
4、利空落地博弈：FOMC鹰派结果落地，叠加通胀数据缓和，超跌周期股迎来资金博弈修复窗口。
当前核心风险
1、反弹≠反转，本次是宏观数据驱动的超跌修复，中长期趋势需要财报业绩确认支撑。
2、短期涨幅巨大，获利盘丰厚，超买状态下随时出现剧烈冲高回落。
3、8月5日财报窗口，如果财报指引不及预期，容易出现利好兑现砸盘。
4、长鑫扩产的供给担忧依旧存在，会持续压制估值天花板。
更新关键价位 SNDK
✅支撑
1120‑1140，短线生命线；守住该区间，强势修复结构维持；
有效跌破1120，本轮逼空行情结束，重回震荡，再次测试1000附近低点。
⛔压力
1270‑1285第一强阻力（当前盘中压力）；
放量站稳1285，下一重要套牢密集区 1420‑1460，该位置抛压沉重，需要财报利好+持续放量才有望有效突破。
三种情景推演
情景①反弹延续（小概率）
成交量维持高位，守住1120‑1140支撑，放量突破1285，冲击1420‑1460套牢区。
⚠️必须放量确认；无量冲高属于脉冲诱多，适合逢高减仓，严禁追涨。
情景②冲高回落震荡（基准最高概率）
冲击1270‑1285压力后，获利盘、套牢解套盘涌出，冲高回落，在1140‑1285区间震荡消化，等待8月5日财报指引。
当前反弹优先视作减仓窗口，不是追入机会。
情景③修复行情失败二次走弱
后续美债收益率再度反弹，或者财报指引不及预期，跌破1120支撑，重回下跌震荡。
实操要点
1、本轮行情是通胀数据驱动+空头回补逼空，不适合追高进场。
2、持仓思路：冲高靠近1270‑1285滞涨优先分批减仓；博弈反弹止损放在1120下方。
3、分水岭：放量站稳1285，短线反弹行情加强；有效跌破1120，本轮强势修复结束。
4、接下来重点盯紧8月5日财报，财报将决定存储板块中期走向。Big Tech earnings. $BTC 10T on the line.
Tonight + tomorrow: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon report. Nasdaq looks calm, but everyone’s gripping the armrest.
The real question: is AI actually changing the world, or just the most expensive experiment ever? We start finding out now.
Quick take:
Apple — Boring but steady. iPhone prints cash, AI moves slow. Safest of the four.
Microsoft + Meta — High risk. If Azure misses or capex doesn’t cool, expect instant pain. Meta’s test: can ads cover the burn?
Amazon — Closes it. AWS needs >33% growth or the $BTC 200B infra story gets shaky.
3 things to watch:
1. Capex guidance — Google got slapped -5% after hours for overspending. Say “no limit” and watch stocks bleed.
2. Cloud growth — Azure and AWS prove if AI actually makes money. Slowdown = thesis breaks.
3. Free cash flow — Google went from $25.7B to negative. Microsoft and Amazon also fell off a cliff. Meta still burns $BTC 30B+/q. Another miss here and the AI narrative takes a hit.
Semis feeling it too: SK Hynix, SanDisk, Micron all getting hit.
Seatbelts on.
#FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight
#SKHynixRecordMiss
#DailyOrbit My conclusion is upfront: ROBO's recent rally has real new progress, but "bots completing an on-chain payment demo" and "already forming sustainable business demand" are two different things. The price acceleration after the announcement deserves attention; negative funding rates and rapidly expanding contract positions also remind us that the market is far from consensus. First, pin the time to the facts. At 00:09:37 Beijing time on July 31, Fabric Foundation officially released the first batch of RoboPay physical robot integration demonstrations, involving Deep Robotics M20 Pro, AGIBOT X2, and DOBOT CR5V. In the demonstration, the robot first completes x402 payment verification, then performs inspections, robotic arm actions, or humanoid interactions. All three hardware pieces can be verified on their respective official websites, but as of this deadline, I have not seen any simultaneous independent announcements from the three manufacturers regarding this integration, so the more precise term is "official Fabric demo," not that it has been deployed at scale. The price structure is quite interesting. As of 01:01, based on the OKX one-minute candlestick chart data from 13:02 on July 30 to 01:01 the next day, ROBO spot rose from 0.01193 to $0.01283, up about 7.54% in twelve hours, reaching a high of $0.01308; turnover was about 503,100 USDT, up about 74.9% from the previous equal-length window. The first wave of gains clearly preceded the announcement, reaching $0.01295 at 21:59;The biggest significance of PCE cooling for the market is not the numbers themselves, but that it gives the Fed a bit more room to maneuver.
The core logic behind suppressing risk assets in the past was "higher interest rates last longer." Now that growth is slowing and inflation is easing, if subsequent data continues to cooperate, the market will trade liquidity inflection points early.
But don't forget, U.S. Treasury yields remain a key variable.
Inflation is responsible for opening up the possibility of rate cuts.
Only when yields fall can you truly push your funds back into the $BTC.$BTC US inflation finally cools down!
The PCE price index recorded 3.7%.
Exactly as expected by the market!
hitting the lowest level in nearly two months.
Interest rate cut trades get a breather again!
The US June PCE price index rose 3.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations and lower than May's 4.1%; Month-on-month decline of 0.1%. The Fed's more focused core PCE rose only 0.1% month-over-month, also below the expected 0.2%.
This data does not completely solve inflation, but at least it shows that prices have not continued to worsen. Combined with Q2 GDP growth of only 1.5%, the market will re-bet on economic cooling to eventually force the Fed to switch to easing.
Growth is slowing, inflation is easing, and liquidity expectations are beginning to recover. $SATS
Accumulation ranges often appear quiet right before a significant expansion occurs.
Avoiding emotional trades in middle-range territory keeps account growth consistent.
EP
0.000000088 - 0.000000091
TP
0.000000098
0.000000105
0.000000115
SL
0.000000084
Sellers are struggling to force lower prices as volume flattens out near major support. A clean structural reclaim here builds a solid base for a move toward upper targets.
Let's go $SATS
#Fed3Dissents
#MSFTCutsCapex Even after the Fed's minutes were released, BTC maintained volatility below 2%, defying market expectations. Is this sideways move a genuine bullish signal, or is it a sign that derivatives risk is accumulating? Key facts confirmed in the original text: BTC is moving sideways with less than 2% volatility in the $62,500~$64,000 range, and the monthly candle closed with a large bullish candle. ETH held the $1850 support level, recording a 17% monthly gain, while UNI showed the strongest uptrend among altcoins with a 30% increase. On the other hand, ZEC, HYPE, LAB, and RAVE are exposed to risks of continued weakness or sharp declines. From a derivatives perspective, the current market is an extremely stable environment with short-term basis and funding costs. The fact that many positions were not liquidated ahead of the Fed event suggests that long positions are more patient than expected, but at the same time, excessive leverage cannot be ruled out. - BTC: If the $62,500 support level breaks, a chain reaction of stop-losses on short-term long positions could be triggered, which Big Tech earnings. $BTC 10T on the line.
Tonight + tomorrow: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon report. Nasdaq looks calm, but everyone’s gripping the armrest.
The real question: is AI actually changing the world, or just the most expensive experiment ever? We start finding out now.
Quick take:
Apple — Boring but steady. iPhone prints cash, AI moves slow. Safest of the four.
Microsoft + Meta — High risk. If Azure misses or capex doesn’t cool, expect instant pain. Meta’s test: can ads cover the burn?
Amazon — Closes it. AWS needs >33% growth or the $BTC 200B infra story gets shaky.
3 things to watch:
1. Capex guidance — Google got slapped -5% after hours for overspending. Say “no limit” and watch stocks bleed.
2. Cloud growth — Azure and AWS prove if AI actually makes money. Slowdown = thesis breaks.
3. Free cash flow — Google went from $25.7B to negative. Microsoft and Amazon also fell off a cliff. Meta still burns $BTC 30B+/q. Another miss here and the AI narrative takes a hit.
Semis feeling it too: SK Hynix, SanDisk, Micron all getting hit.
Seatbelts on. 🚀
#FedRateDecision
#BigTechEarningsNight
#SKHynixRecordMiss
#DailyOrbit If there is a past life, Trump must have incarnated from his past life as a black swan from his previous life!
US stocks and cryptocurrencies were initially optimistic about the monetary policy gap in August,
As a result, Trump also saw this gap, and the conflict between the US and Iran resumed.
Militarily, on July 28, Iran launched a test missile attack on US forces stationed in the Middle East.
On the non-military front, the US reimposed sanctions on Iran in July due to oil sales, including economic sanctions and sanctions related to Iranian shipping.
Iran launched an attack a day before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, triggering the conflict between the US and Iran, rising oil prices, and increased expectations for the consumer price index. Speculation that Iran is deliberately delaying timing to give the Federal Reserve a tough stance or even to raise interest rates—in plain terms, this is to give Trump a good look. Of course, this is just my speculation.
Fortunately, the market has become somewhat less sensitive to the US-Iran conflict. Around July 24, OPEC oil rose to nearly 100, and WTI crude rose to about 73. Today, OPEC oil rose to a high of about 90, and WTI crude rose to about 85.
Storage is seeing a recovery, with Melix $SKHY returning to $132. $MU Micron returned to $778, $SNDK returned to $1095. #Fed3Dissents
$BTC 🇰🇷 South Korea's stock market has just endured one of its most volatile periods in decades.
The scale of the selloff has drawn comparisons to past market crises.
📉 40+ consecutive trading days of declines
📉 Around a 43% market drawdown
📉 Two consecutive circuit breakers triggered
📉 Public protests outside parliament
📉 The Finance Minister issuing a public apology
To put that into perspective:
📉 A 43% decline would take $BTC from $60,000 to roughly $34,200.
📉 A similar move in names like $SNDK or $KAITO would leave many investors facing substantial drawdowns.
This wasn't just a normal correction.
Heavy leverage—particularly through single-stock ETFs linked to Samsung and SK Hynix—turned a semiconductor selloff into a wave of forced liquidations. As sentiment deteriorated, leverage amplified the downside, liquidity dried up, and selling accelerated.
The lesson is simple:
Leverage can amplify gains, but it accelerates losses just as fast. When forced liquidations begin, markets can move much farther—and much faster—than most participants expect.
Protect your capital. Manage your risk. Stay disciplined.
#Fed3Dissents
#MSFTCutsCapex #AIStoryDiverges $BTC $ETH $SNDK In the previous article, I discussed which link to use for top-ups, and the most common question in the comments was, "So what exactly is the loss when I use my card?"
After more than half a year of doing U Card content, my answer is: at the top-up step, you lose the handling fee; at the card swipe step, you lose the exchange rate. The latter amounts much more, but almost no one counts
1. For the same $100 spent, how much $USDT are actually deducted?
Opening it up, it reveals four floors:
・Card organization exchange rate (Visa/Mastercard current rate): The common floor price for all cards; there is no difference in this tier
・Card merchant point allocation: ranges from 0% to 2%, listed in the small text at the bottom of the rate page
・Cross-border transaction fee: Some cards charge an additional 0.5%–1%, triggered only by overseas merchants
・Secondary currency conversion: If the merchant's settlement currency is not US dollars, they will pass through another round
Stacked up, for the same $100 purchase, the good card deducts 100.3 U, the bad card deducts 103 U. If you spend 500 U monthly, the difference is 13 U—much bigger than fussing over 1% cashback for half a day
2. Three things more worth watching than just adding points
1. Card settlement currency. US Region subscriptions with US US SIM cards have zero conversion; cards settled in HKD can cost more than one more for the same transaction
2. DCC Trap. Overseas websites ask you "settle in local currency or US dollars," so choose the local currency. Choosing USD means having the merchant exchange it for you, with a general starting point of 3%.
3. Pre-authorization rules. Subscription merchants first authorize $1, but some cards freeze the transaction for 7–30 days. If the balance is tight, the deduction will fail immediately
3. My actual configuration
The main focus is on dollar-settled cards with a 1% markup, specifically for subscriptions and US region consumption; For offline small amounts, use another card exempt from cross-border fees; Deposits are still $TRX, and the wallet always holds 20 U of $TRX gas. With this setup, the total cost of recharge + exchange rate can be kept within 1.5% of consumption
Conclusion: Cashback is addition, exchange rate is multiplication. First, clarify the settlement currency and point allocation, then compare who gets 1% back and who gets 2% cashback.$LAB $LAB Many people don't understand: the LAB ecosystem is constantly evolving, product features are constantly updated, and even though the fundamentals haven't collapsed, why does the market keep falling in a shadowy decline, and every slight rally is met with a sell-off, with no sustained rebound?
Today, breaking away from conventional candlestick analysis, I will break down the real underlying logic behind LAB's weak market from the perspective of chip games and capital cycles.
1. LAB's current decline is not about value, but about the emotional pricing of the chip cycle
In the crypto world, short-term pricing power has never been about product launch progress, but about the supply and demand of chips.
LAB's core current contradiction: long-term value remains, but short-term supply pressure has already taken over.
The previous round of price increases exhausted all the market's premium for product launches and ecosystem expansion.
Once all the positive news is realized, the focus of market trading shifts directly to expectations of chip selling pressure: the large unlock window is approaching, early low-priced tokens have strong demand for cash-out, and major players are seeking to exit in batches.
After the positive news materialized, without any new major narratives, the market naturally entered a weak cycle of distribution on rebounds, which is the fundamental reason for the sustained decline.
2. Every small rebound is a self-rescue exit by short-term bottom-fishing funds, not new capital entering to build positions
A close look at the recent market reveals a common pattern: every rebound shrinks in volume, the rise is unsustained, and when prices rise even slightly, selling pressure rushes out.
The fundamental reason is that there is currently no active entry by large new capital in the market. The current participants in the market are basically retail investors trapped and long-term positions waiting for price rebounds to sell in batches.
The market saw a slight rally, with no relay push by incremental funds; it was merely a short-term sentiment recovery after overselling. Once the price offers room for uneven or small profits, both the trapped and profit-taking chips will be sold off in concentrated sell-offs. In this back-and-forth tug-of-war, the market focus is continuously pushed down, and the market's support weakens.
3. During the unlocking window, the consensus on capital is very clear: they will not actively push prices up to make a wedding dress for low-priced chips
Many retail investors have a fixed mindset: if a drop is large enough, a reversal and rally will inevitably follow, but for coins with large unlocks, the logic for capital trading is completely different.
Low-priced private equity chips have very low holding costs; as soon as there is a decent rebound in the market, a concentrated sell-off will follow.
No major player is willing to actively push up the market to absorb massive selling pressure.
So the trading strategy during this period is very clear: deliberately suppress prices to wear down holders' patience, spend a long time grinding to wash away unstable chips, avoid large rebounds before unlocking and landing, and avoid creating a selling window for low-cost chips.
4. Market capital style shifts, small-cap narrative coins collectively losing blood, and LAB lacks support funds to support the market
Currently, the flow of funds across the entire market is very clear, with safe-haven funds flocking to mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, while small- and mid-cap narrative coins are generally experiencing capital withdrawals.
LAB itself is a token driven by market hype, lacking long-term spot funds to support the market, nor large institutional positions locked up to stabilize the market. Once the market hype fades and there is no capital to actively support the bottom, declines are almost unlikely to encounter strong resistance. This explains why, even when the market is consolidating sideways, LAB continues to weaken and hit new lows.
5. For a true stabilization and reversal in the future, you only need to closely watch two key signals
The market won't keep falling in a negative direction. To see a true recovery, two conditions must be met:
1. Unlocking the full realization of negative news, the market's panic expectations of large selling pressure have been fully digested, and all potential selling pressure has been converted into actual transactions. The exhaustion of negative news is no longer a hidden risk hanging above the market.
2. The market shows sustained volume stabilization, bidding farewell to a brief weak rebound with shrinking volume, the bottom continues to rise, and stable large active buying orders appear in the order book, indicating new main funds are re-entering the market to establish positions.
Before these two signals are confirmed, all lows are only temporary support, and each rise can only be defined as a short-term recovery rebound.
Personal summary
LAB is not a fundamental failure of the project; it is simply that short-term chip supply pressure combined with market style shifts has entered a weak adjustment cycle. Products and ecosystems continue to advance steadily, but short-term chip selling pressure determines the short-term market trend.
Current trading approach: Don't blindly buy the bottom or guess the bottom, don't hold heavy positions and hold positions stubbornly. If you face pressure during rebounds, go short, stay patient, and wait for the negative news to fully settle before positioning for a true recovery and reversal.Sorry, family, I really can't hit that little fist!
The $1.6 billion contract offers limited incremental potential for SpaceX's $1.5 trillion scale; the market is more focused on the long-term growth story (Starlink monetization, Starship progress, profitability, xAI)
Right now, it's a typical post-IPO post-IPO hype retreat + large-scale equity unlock expectations suppressing the market
Originally, I planned to follow Starship's launch in the liquidity zone to make a profit
Let's see if there's an opportunity for a short squeeze
But right now it's hard to play, so I decided to skip the manual buying part~
Prepare for the model to estimate the period for a larger value zone 80
Coincidentally, @sunlc.ai invited yesterday during the @Mercy_okx US stock livestream also had an ideal buy price of 80 for SpaceX!
Then I checked Sun Ge's tweets:
"A target price of 80 is a good way to bottom-fish, corresponding to roughly 1 trillion in market value. Of this, Starlink is worth 300 billion, Rocket Launch 200 billion, and xAI 500 billion. If xAI performs even stronger in the second half of the year and closes the gap between Claude and GPT, it can rise just a little more. 90 can't go any further."
If $XSPCX's future price reaches this range, it is worth paying close attention to
#SpaceX获 $1.6B US military contract, stock price plunge sparks controversy between two camps
$SPCX Among the Mag7 $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN $META $TSLA, five have already traded below the 200-day EMA, with only Apple and Nvidia holding their moving average support. The simultaneous breakout of five stocks means the overall trend structure of the large-cap tech heavyweight is weakening, and the 200-day EMA has shifted from support to short-term resistance. If Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon fail to recover the 200-day EMA after their earnings reports this week, the probability of confirming structural deterioration will increase. Conversely, if two or more stocks are above the moving average with volume, the current breakout can be seen as a false decline. Watch whether each asset can recover the 200-day EMA within three trading days after the earnings report as a benchmark for structural recovery.
#英伟达. Google provides massive guarantees for AI data center debt #HYPE遭大额解押减持, down 10% in one weekThe pattern of BTC's crash is quietly changing.
2018:
BTC fell from $19,800 to $3,237.
Maximum drawdown: 84%
If you buy at the bottom, after one year: +121%
2022:
BTC fell from $69,000 to $15,600.
Maximum drawdown: 77%
If you buy at the bottom, return after one year: +131%
And this round:
BTC fell from $124,800 to $58,000.
Maximum drawdown only: 53.5%
You'll notice a change:
Bitcoin is becoming more and more resilient to declines.
But on the other hand, it was:
The smaller the drop, the lower the odds of bottom-fishing in the future.
If we look at the rise after the last two bottoms:
Buy around $58,000, and in the coming year, it may correspond to the $128,000–$134,000 range.
In other words:
The super deep craters of the past may be disappearing.
In the future, BTC may no longer easily give you an 80% pullback opportunity.
From "seeking hundredfold opportunities" to "seizing the compound interest of epoch-level assets," this may be the biggest change Bitcoin has entered into maturity.Cognitive Framework | Power Law: Why Do I Believe NVIDIA Is Still the Biggest Winner in AI?
A few days ago, I recommended Peter Thiel's 'From Zero to One.' What impressed me most was not that "competition is a game for losers," but rather a thinking model that can analyze almost all excellent companies—the Power Law.
Cognitive Framework | Power Law
Many people study a company and first look at PE, revenue, profit, and cash flow. Of course, these are important, but in my view, it's even more important to answer one question first: does it have a chance to be the one that takes away the vast majority of the industry's value? I usually use the four questions of the power law to make judgments.
Winner-takes-all: Is this a "winner-takes-all" industry?
Not every industry will produce super giants. Catering, clothing, real estate—most of the time, many companies are making money together. But the AI chip industry is different; it's more like a search engine, social platform, or operating system. Once you lead, you only get ahead of others. The reason NVIDIA complies with the power law mainly comes from three advantages: first, network effects—the more people use it, the more valuable it becomes, just like WeChat—everyone uses it, so newcomers keep using it. NVIDIA not only sells GPUs but also has built a development platform called CUDA. You can think of it as the "Windows" of the AI world: the more developers there are, the richer the software, and the more abundant the software, the more developers it attracts, ultimately forming an increasingly strong ecosystem. Second is economies of scale. The bigger the company, the more obvious the advantage. NVIDIA invests tens of billions of dollars annually in R&D, allowing it to secure cutting-edge wafer capacity in advance and attract the world's top AI talent—an advantage that small companies find hard to replicate. Third is brand effect. Today, many companies building AI data centers first think of NVIDIA, and the brand itself has become a competitive advantage.
Image
Secret bet: Is it betting on a future that others don't believe in?
Peter Thiel's favorite question is: "What is important that you believe in but most people disagree with?" Almost all great companies have their own 'anti-consensus.' Nvidia's anti-consensus policy back then was to insist on investing in CUDA. Twenty years ago, most people thought GPUs were only for gaming, but NVIDIA believed they would become general-purpose computing platforms in the future. When ChatGPT appeared, everyone realized that what AI needed most was the GPU. Many people see the AI boom, but I see a strategy that has persisted for twenty years finally materialize.
Image
Escaping the competition: Has it made it hard for customers to leave?
The real moat isn't that the product is better, but that even if customers want to switch, it's very difficult. If an AI company has already invested tens of millions of dollars to build all its models on CUDA, then changing platforms means engineers have to relearn, code must be redeveloped, and models must be retrained, bearing enormous time and financial costs. So many companies don't just want to switch—they simply can't afford it. This is the cost of migration, and it's also one of the strongest moats.
Image
Rule Setter: Has it started setting industry rules?
I think this is the scariest thing about Nvidia. Many people think it sells GPUs, but in fact, it sells the entire AI infrastructure. CUDA is a software platform for developing AI, essentially an operating system in the AI world; DGX is a supercomputer specifically designed for training AI. Enterprises can quickly train large models without building them from scratch; NVLink can be understood as a "highway" between GPUs. Training models like ChatGPT requires hundreds or thousands of GPUs working simultaneously. NVLink enables these GPUs to communicate at high speed, like many computers turning into supercomputers; InfiniBand acts like the entire AI data center's "high-speed rail network," connecting servers and GPUs to enable massive data transmission; otherwise, even the most powerful GPUs would waste performance waiting for data; AI Factory is a new concept that Jensen Huang has emphasized in recent years—in the past, companies bought servers; in the future, they will buy a "smart factory" capable of continuously producing AI models and services. From GPUs, servers, and network equipment to software development and model deployment, NVIDIA offers almost a complete solution. What companies buy is no longer just a chip, but an entire AI ecosystem. As more and more companies build AI data centers according to your standards, your competition is no longer with peers, but with defining the future development of the entire industry.
Image
My understanding is: the power law has never been about predicting whether stock prices will rise or fall; what it truly taught me is how to identify whether a company has the ability to be the winner who "takes most of the industry's value." Financial reports determine a company's present; its business model, ecosystem, and competitive advantages determine its future.
In short: GPUs are just products NVIDIA sells, while CUDA, DGX, NVLink, InfiniBand, and AI Factory are the real ecosystems that build its moat. $BEAT November 30: about 0.98 USDT, December 1: about 1.01 USDT; Approximately 21.25 million BEAT tokens unlocked.
January 1: December 31 about 1.91 USDT, January 1 about 1.47 USDT; Approximately 21.25 million tokens have been unlocked.
February 1: About 0.24 USDT on January 31, about 0.19 USDT on February 1; Approximately 21.25 million tokens have been unlocked.
March 1: February 28 about 0.20 USDT, March 1 about 0.24 USDT; Approximately 21.25 million tokens have been unlocked.
April 1: About 0.55 USDT on March 31, about 0.46 USDT on April 1; Approximately 21.25 million tokens have been unlocked.
May 1: April 30 about 0.57 USDT, May 1 about 0.54 USDT; Approximately 21.25 million tokens have been unlocked.
June 1: About 1.17 USDT on May 31, about 1.15 USDT on June 1; Approximately 21.25 million tokens have been unlocked.
July 1: About 2.91 USDT on June 30, about 2.89 USDT on July 1; Approximately 21.25 million tokens have been unlocked.Liquidity is not spreading but is selectively concentrated
The indicators look strong, so why are most stocks unable to keep up?
Currently, the market is experiencing both superficial strength and internal vulnerabilities. While trading volume is maintaining, open interest is decreasing. This means traders are responding with selective entry and quick stop-losses rather than reckless chasing. Funds are concentrated in a specific stock, while other areas quietly lose liquidity.
- Already priced in: BTC's anchoring role, SOL's L1 bullishness, and institutional demand premiums for ETH are largely factored in. Themes like AI infrastructure and identity are also attracting funds.
- Variables not yet reflected: The pattern of selective flow without capital circulation is still ongoing. $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA, etc. remain in a state of sluggish capital inflows.
From the perspective of derivative positioning, the market is currently experiencing a decrease in leveraged supply. A reduction in open interest means the reduction of positions on both short and long sides, which narrows the squeeze path. If BTC or ETH encounter an unexpected liquidity event, sharp price fluctuations are possible even with small positions, but volatility itself may be suppressed until a clear direction is confirmed.
- Upward scenario: BTC currently maintains its role as a liquidity anchor, and in the event of further gains, SOL and ETH will follow, with AI/data themes attracting new capital. In this case, stocks like $DATA, $WLD, and $HYPE could benefit.
- Downside risk: If liquidity continues to concentrate on a specific stock, most altcoins face additional downward pressure. If open interest continues to decrease, the overall market resilience weakens, making it vulnerable to unexpected shocks.
From a cross-market delivery perspective, BTC currently functions more as a safe-haven asset than as a barometer of risk appetite. ETH is supported by institutional demand, but its spread across altcoins is limited. $ZEC and $DOGE still reflect individual sentiment, but their movements do not drive the overall market.
Conclusion: In phases where liquidity moves selectively, observation and patience should take precedence. Rather than FOMO, it is advantageous to read the flow and respond only to confirmed capital flows. The market pushes every stock.🚨 Big Tech earnings are here. AI faces its biggest reality check.
Over the next two days, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon report earnings. The Nasdaq looks calm—for now—but this could be one of the most important weeks for both tech and crypto.
The key question:
Is AI becoming a profitable business, or is it still an incredibly expensive experiment?
Quick outlook
🍎 Apple — The most defensive of the group. Strong iPhone cash flows, measured AI strategy.
☁️ Microsoft & Meta — High expectations. Azure growth, AI monetization, and capex discipline will be under the microscope. Meta also needs to prove its advertising business can justify aggressive AI spending.
📦 Amazon — AWS remains the centerpiece. Investors want to see cloud growth stay strong while AI investments translate into sustainable returns.
Three metrics that matter
📌 Capex guidance
Markets want signs that AI spending is becoming more efficient—not an endless race to spend more.
📌 Cloud growth
Azure and AWS will show whether enterprise AI demand is still accelerating.
📌 Free cash flow
Revenue alone isn't enough. Investors want to see healthy cash generation alongside massive AI investments.
Meanwhile, semiconductor names like SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron continue to face pressure as the market reassesses AI-related valuations.
This isn't just an earnings season.
It's a confidence test for the AI trade—and the outcome could influence sentiment across both tech stocks and crypto.
🎢 Seatbelts on.
#Fed3Dissents #MSFTCutsCapex #AIStoryDiverges $BTC $ETH $SNDK The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but the yield on the US 30-year Treasury broke through 5.2%, reaching a new high since 2007.
The collective rise in long-term bond yields indicates that the bond market does not believe inflation can be stabilized, with funds rushing to sell US Treasuries and demanding higher yields to compensate for risk.
Massive fiscal deficits combined with stubborn inflation, persistently weakening bond prices driving the US dollar higher, passive market liquidity contraction, and ongoing pressure on risk assets like $BTC.
Currently, the Fed's statements and bond market expectations are severely disconnected. Next, the focus will be on when the bond market stabilizes to ease the pressure of liquidity depletion. #美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight