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$BTC
Coldcard stolen assets begin to be transferred, will this trigger a new wave of panic selling?
Recently, there has been new progress in the Coldcard hardware wallet security incident.
On-chain data shows that the attacker has started to tentatively transfer some of the stolen bitcoins, but the actual amount transferred so far is very small, with most of the stolen assets still remaining in several known attacker addresses. This indicates that the hacker is more likely testing the transfer path rather than immediately selling on a large scale.
Many investors worry: if the hacker sells all thousands of BTC, will it crash the market?
In fact, in terms of quantity, the currently stolen assets are about 1,000+ BTC. Although the value is close to 100 million USD, it is not a large proportion of the entire Bitcoin market. Considering the daily trading volume of hundreds of billions of USD, these chips are not enough to independently determine the market trend.
What truly affects the market is not these 1,000+ BTC, but market sentiment.
When people see news like "cold wallets can also be hacked" and "hackers start transferring assets," some investors worry that hackers might sell at any time, so they sell early to hedge. This "I’m afraid others will sell first, so I sell first" mentality often causes short-term declines more easily than the hackers actually selling coins.
However, current on-chain data shows that most funds are still concentrated in addresses controlled by the attackers, with no signs of continuous, large-scale inflows to exchanges. If a large amount of BTC is monitored entering centralized exchanges in the future, that may indicate real selling pressure is increasing and requires close attention.
For traders, this matter is more like a test of sentiment. If subsequent transfers are only sporadic, market panic may gradually subside; but if attackers start continuously transferring large amounts of BTC to exchanges, short-term volatility is likely to amplify again. Therefore, besides focusing on price trends, it is crucial to closely monitor on-chain fund flows, as they often release risk signals earlier than candlestick charts.$GRVT — GRVT
The silence before the storm has turned violent around $GRVT. Price is down sharply, turnover is exploding, and the market is experiencing the kind of heavy activity that can represent panic selling, distribution or aggressive absorption.
$GRVT is trading near $0.24433, down approximately 11.97%, with around $71.87M in visible turnover. This is by far the most extreme combination of price movement and volume in the screenshot. Such heavy participation during a major decline demands caution because volatility may remain elevated even after the first rebound.
The most important question is whether price can stabilize around $0.225–$0.245. If sellers continue hitting the market but fail to push price meaningfully lower, stronger buyers may be absorbing supply. However, a reversal should not be assumed until $GRVT reclaims resistance with sustained volume.
The first major recovery level is $0.260. A breakout above $0.275 would provide stronger evidence that the selloff is losing control.
EP: $0.225–$0.245
TP1: $0.260
TP2: $0.285
TP3: $0.320
SL: $0.208Firefly Trading｜Crude Oil Market Analysis
Today crude oil plunged sharply, mainly due to the US-Iran resuming negotiations, causing a concentrated flight from geopolitical risk premiums, combined with OPEC+ confirming production increases in September, leading bulls to take profits and trigger a pullback.
The unilateral geopolitical bull market has temporarily ended, and the market is switching to high-level consolidation.
Caution is needed: negotiations are just the beginning, conflict risks have not been completely eliminated, and news may be repetitive.
Range reference: WTI support at 78-79, resistance at 84-86.
The oil price decline eases inflation pressure, indirectly benefiting the equity market.
Trading reminder: avoid chasing single-direction trades in a volatile market, prioritize risk control. #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Oil prices plunged right at the open today, with Brent dropping over 7% to $81.55, and WTI falling below $80. Over the weekend, Trump halted a planned large-scale strike on Iran and announced a new round of talks starting Monday afternoon.
He said he was originally prepared to launch "the largest attack since World War II," but allies like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar called him one after another asking him not to strike, seeing an opportunity to negotiate. Trump backed down, saying a framework agreement has been reached, aiming to "immediately, completely, and thoroughly" reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC+ also approved an increase in production by 188,000 barrels per day starting in September, fully reversing the 1.65 million barrels per day cut that began in 2023. With geopolitical tensions easing and supply increasing, both sides are easing off the throttle.
But the biggest uncertainty is that both sides are not on the same page. Trump says the US and Iran will negotiate directly, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei flatly denies this, saying there are currently no talks with the US, only discussions with Oman about managing the strait. Iran also reiterated that the strait "will not return to the pre-conflict state."
US stock futures are rising while oil prices are falling; the market is taking the news at face value for now. But Iran’s statement implies that today’s "talks" are most likely just Oman relaying messages, and a real agreement is still far off.
Oil prices have dropped from 96 to 80, clearing the geopolitical premium. But whether the talks will yield results is another matter. Last week I revived my comment that memecoins are a leveraged bet on how long a joke will last and it appears to have struck a nerve with many.
Reflecting on it made me realize why memes are no longer sustainable, and it goes beyond vamps and rugs and sniper bots. Every modern memecoin is just an oracle that tracks offchain attention. But normies aren’t buying your bags, so you’re betting on the wrong type of joke.
PEPE, DOGE, SHIB, BONK - these jokes
mean nothing to non-crypto users, and that’s what gives them sticking power. They can retain better value because they will always be funny/significant to the subset of degens that makes these tokens move.
the fast way to blow up is by using leverage, the fastest way to blow up is by using leverage to trade how long people will pay attention.To be honest, if you were woken up this morning by the news of the "US-Iran war," you should breathe a sigh of relief now—Trump has once again played the whole world on social media. August 2 was quite surreal: in the morning, the market was still pricing in "the largest airstrike on Iran since World War II this weekend," but in the afternoon, Trump changed his tune on Air Force One, saying, "Cancel the strike and sit down on Monday to talk." Even more outrageous, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz only learned about the strike plan being withdrawn through Trump's "real social" posts. Israeli senior officials described it as a "complete information vacuum" and were left in the dark for several hours. With this brake, the capital market instantly changed its stance. US Stocks: Futures Smile First, But Fundamentals Are Not So Stable Early on August 3 Asia-Pacific Early Trading: Nasdaq 100 futures +0.78%, S&P 500 futures +0.44%, Dow futures +0.4%. On the surface, it looks like the "war premium" is retreating—after all, Brent crude plunged from nearly $100 to 83.91 in one go, a single-day drop of 6.89%, and WTI also fell below 81. The first beneficiary of "not getting to work" is actually the gas station. But don't get too happy too soon. On the US side, although the Nasdaq rose 1% above 25,373, Amazon and Apple's earnings reports have already diverged, and the Fed remains hawkish internally. "Not fighting" only removes a downside risk; the AI bull market's own issues (valuation, SpaceX/OpenAI IPO diversion) remain unresolved. Bitcoin: The "Awkward Rebound" Above 63,000 Is the Key Point. After news of the negotiations came out, BTC responded with a backing upRare US-Japan joint effort stabilizes the yen, global exchange rate markets are repricing
Behind this round of yen rebound, a variable unseen for many years has appeared.
According to reports, Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed recent yen-buying operations, while market sources say the US also participated in coordinated actions. This marks the first joint effort by the US and Japan in years to stabilize the exchange rate. After the news was announced, the USD/JPY quickly fell from near previous highs to around 157, and the market began reassessing the risk of continued yen depreciation.
In recent years, the yen has been one of the most noticeably weak currencies in global markets.
The core reason is not complicated: the US-Japan interest rate differential has long existed.
The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, while the Bank of Japan's monetary policy adjustments have been relatively slow. Large amounts of capital borrow low-cost yen and reallocate into dollar assets and other high-yield assets, forming a massive carry trade.
This trade has driven the dollar stronger and kept the yen under continuous pressure.
But as USD/JPY approaches critical levels, the market worries about the impact of excessive exchange rate volatility.
For Japan, a weak yen benefits export companies' profits but also raises energy import costs, increases living pressure on residents, and adds uncertainty to economic policy.
This is why Japan continuously monitors exchange rate changes closely.
However, foreign exchange intervention can change short-term prices but is difficult to alter long-term trends alone.
The core determinant of the yen's direction remains the monetary policy differences between the US and Japan.
If the US enters a rate-cutting cycle in the future, narrowing the US-Japan interest rate gap, while the Bank of Japan continues policy normalization, the yen may gain stronger support.
But if US rates remain high for a long time and capital continues flowing into dollar assets, the yen's rebound may still face pressure.
The market is also more focused on another impact:
the potential reversal of yen carry trades.
In recent years, large amounts of capital have used low-yield yen financing to reinvest in global stocks, bonds, and other risk assets. If the yen rapidly appreciates, this capital may be forced to deleverage, affecting global liquidity.
This is why yen volatility has long been viewed as an important indicator for global risk assets.
For US stocks, gold, and crypto markets, exchange rate changes reflect shifts in capital flows.
The market was accustomed to a strong dollar and high interest rate environment, but now, with Japan taking more active measures against exchange rate pressure and changing Fed policy expectations, the global capital landscape is undergoing new adjustments.
Of course, a single intervention cannot determine the trend.
What truly determines the long-term direction of USD/JPY are interest rates, economic growth, and capital flows.
But the significance of this event lies in:
the exchange rate market is no longer just Japan bearing pressure alone but is entering a stage of policy competition.
Prices are always more honest than words.
The USD/JPY trend is already reflecting the market's judgment on the future global monetary environment in advance.
Going forward, changes in the US-Japan interest rate differential and whether Japan continues to take action will become important variables affecting global assets in the second half of the year.
$GRVT $SNDK $SKHYNIX
#美日确认联合购汇 📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.08.03 (Monday)
📌 Key Judgments
Crude oil suddenly plunged, temporarily easing inflation and Federal Reserve rate hike pressures, but deleveraging in the AI and storage sectors is not over yet. Today, the focus is not on how much BTC rebounds, but whether Changxin Technology, South Korean chip stocks, Micron, and SanDisk can truly stabilize.
🔥 Today's Highlights
① Crude oil plummets, macro pressure temporarily eased
Brent crude fell to about $82, mainly because the U.S. paused further actions against Iran, and the market began to anticipate negotiations.
The oil price pullback benefits tech stocks, storage stocks, and crypto assets, but this is currently just trading on "negotiation expectations," not a complete end to the conflict. If negotiations fail, oil prices could quickly rebound.
② Storage industry demand has not collapsed, but stock prices are still deleveraging
South Korea's manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1 in July, and semiconductor export orders increased significantly, indicating strong demand for servers, AI, and electronic products.
However, stock performance remains poor: the South Korean stock market dropped about 3.6% today, while Micron and SanDisk fell about 6% and 5.2% respectively last Friday. This looks more like a valuation adjustment after previous excessive gains and high leverage, not a sudden disappearance of storage orders.
③ Focus on Changxin Technology around 50 yuan
Changxin Technology fell about 5.1% today to around 51.22 yuan, with 50 yuan becoming a key short-term level to watch.
The focus will be on three signals: whether it can hold 50 yuan, whether trading volume shrinks, and whether new funds appear after inclusion in the MSCI China All Shares Index on August 10. Whether Changxin stabilizes will also continue to influence market judgments on the competitive landscape of Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix.
④ AMD and SanDisk earnings will verify industry demand
This week, AMD and SanDisk earnings are very critical:
AMD will determine if AI chip demand is spreading from NVIDIA to more manufacturers;
SanDisk directly reflects NAND prices, enterprise SSD demand, inventory, and future orders.
If SanDisk's demand and price guidance remain strong, this round of storage stock plunge is more likely a valuation adjustment; if guidance weakens, beware of changes in the industry cycle.
⑤ Simple observation of BTC and HYPE
BTC is around $63,100. Despite the oil price plunge and U.S. stock futures rising, the rebound remains weak. Short-term support is at $62,800–63,000; only a clear break above $65,000 would indicate a strong turnaround.
HYPE is about $52.5, having dropped significantly over the past week. Protocol revenue remains decent, but the market is trading concerns over token supply and unlocking. Short-term focus is on whether $50–52 can hold.
📅 This Week's Calendar
Monday: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, Palantir earnings
Wednesday: AMD earnings, U.S. ISM Services
Thursday: SanDisk earnings
Friday: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
💡 My View
Currently, the storage industry is in a state of "fundamentals still strong, stock prices continue to cut valuations." It is not recommended to bottom-fish just because of large declines; a more reasonable approach is to wait for Changxin Technology to hold the key level, then confirm demand with AMD and SanDisk earnings.
In short: The crude oil plunge has removed the most direct macro pressure, but the real stop signal for the storage sector still requires confirmation from both earnings and stock prices.
The above is only market information compilation and personal analysis, not investment advice. Old Gao is here. No nonsense today, just hitting the lungs hard.
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The US and Japan teamed up to buy yen for the first time since 1998, and the yen bounced while BTC dropped 2%. The whole world is watching 156 like it's a lifeline.
Nonsense. 156 is just a comfort stick; if bulls hold it, they catch a breath, if not, it will dig a pit again. So what? Is the US's $40 billion enough for anything? Japan's round of $60 billion, even the IMF calls it "a one-shot and run."
You count K-lines, but they are printing money. The US stepping in means admitting they can't control the dollar but still pretending to be the savior. Bullish or bearish? Just excuses for retail traders.
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Strategy? Just three points:
Short-term: Only watch New York Fed transaction orders. When they act, I follow; when they stop, I run. Stop loss? Set below my wife's tolerance.
Mid-term: Trade with 20% of the position back and forth, keep cash steady, wait for these politicians to mess up and then pick up the scraps. Intervention can't save the trend, it only creates good buying opportunities.
Long-term: Pretend to sleep. BTC will rise sooner or later, but you have to live to see that day.
---
Insights — Old Gao's sharp-tongued version.
Ten years of trading, one sentence: News is three steps ahead of technicals, the scythe is ten steps ahead of news. When you see the news, the main players have already closed their positions.
Don't think you're the hunter; 90% in this market are prey wearing camouflage. Faith is not a strategy, news is not a decree.
When the suits stir up the market, you go pick up the chips they drop.
That's it. Believe it or not.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美日确认联合购汇
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
#财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 A likely 4th organized wave of Coldcard attacks is occurring right now, with a clear pattern of suspicious transactions being observed across the Bitcoin network. The attack is characterized by a high volume of suspicious transactions that are moving funds from Coldcard devices to new destinations without the owners' consent. This represents a significant security threat to Coldcard users and requires immediate action to protect funds. The pattern has been identified across blocks 960,778 throug#FinancialReportObserver: Four Key Earnings Releases Next Week, Circle as the Grand Finale
Next week, four critical earnings reports will be released in quick succession: Palantir, AMD, SpaceX, and Circle will appear one after another. The first three mainly validate the demand strength in the AI industry, while Circle, as the grand finale in the crypto ecosystem, holds the highest reference value for the crypto community.
Key highlights of the four earnings reports
1. Palantir
Growth in AI government and enterprise software orders, reflecting institutional willingness to pay for AI, with data impacting AI concept risk appetite.
2. AMD
Revenue guidance for AI server chips, a barometer for the health of the storage and computing power supply chain; focus on capital expenditure and customer order outlook.
3. SpaceX (SPCX)
First earnings report after listing, combined with a trillion-level unlocking window; watch Starlink revenue, burn rate, and Starship test flight schedule. As a high-beta tech stock, sentiment may spill over to risk assets.
4. Circle (CRCL) · Grand Finale Focus
Q2 earnings to be announced at 8 PM Beijing time on August 5. Four core indicators: USDC circulation, reserve income, distribution costs, and progress in trust license business.
Coinbase and Robinhood's crypto business revenues have weakened, and USDT growth has stalled. The market's core question: Are institutional funds truly exiting the crypto market, or just shifting into compliant stablecoins to wait and see?
- ✅USDC circulation increases: Indicates institutional funds are lurking on exchanges, a potential positive for the crypto market.
- ⚠️USDC circulation shrinks: Means the stablecoin pool is contracting overall, with liquidity under further pressure.
Implications for crypto market linkage
Note: Circle reflects institutional fund levels and serves as a mid-term leading indicator. It may not cause sharp moves on the day but will guide the underlying environment for subsequent market trends.
Personal opinion, for reference only.
$BTC $ETH $CRCL $SPCX Today I choose to stay out of SOL and observe, because the lesson from chasing the rally last time hasn't expired yet.
SOL is still fluctuating around $73. On-chain stablecoin funds, tokenized stocks, and payment applications continue to grow, but the price still hasn't shown a clear strengthening. I previously chased above $75, and after a small loss stop, I realized: fundamentals are reasons, but a breakout is the signal.
Today, $70 to $72 is the key support. Only if it holds and climbs back above $75 will I consider a light long position; if it breaks below $70, it may test $66 to $68. The $77 to $80 range remains a resistance zone, and without a volume breakout, I won't add to my position just because of ecosystem news.
SOL is best at making people feel like "if you don't buy now, it will fly the next second." Will you buy on the left side today, or let it prove that $75 can really hold first?
#SOL #Solana #ContractTrading
This is not investment advice. $SOL $SOL Just finished running, feeling good this round
Longed at 63,209, closed at 63,710, 75x leverage, +51.8%.
Last night it surged to 63,779, I exited at 63,710, just 69 points short, perfectly timed the top to run.
Pretty lucky, but not all luck.
---
Why did I exit timely? Three signals alerted me:
① Bitcoin short-term holders sold off 32,000 coins in a single day, hitting a one-month high. Retail investors are cutting losses, short-term chip turnover is intense. Every time this data comes out, the short-term top is usually near.
② #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Oil prices dropped, easing inflation pressure. Sounds good, right? But the market has already priced in rate cuts, so there’s no new story to tell.
③ #美日确认联合购汇
The expectation of a weaker dollar is hedged, signaling tightening liquidity. Big money will pull back short-term after hearing this.
So is this the top or a new starting point?
A few judgments:
· The positives remain, but short-term sentiment has peaked. Last night’s surge to 63,779 just touched MA120 (63,652) nearby, short-term moving averages are all tangled, direction not yet decided.
· If it holds the 62,500-62,800 support zone, that confirms a new starting point’s pullback, then we can buy back in.
· If it breaks below 62,000, this rally is over, time to rest.
I personally lean toward the former—pull back a bit, then move up. Institutions are still buying (BlackRock added another 197 million), fundamentals haven’t worsened, just a short-term breather after a big run.
What’s next?
Stay out, no rush to enter. Watch if 62,500-62,800 can hold, then buy on low volume. Stop loss at 62,000, target first at 64,500-65,000.
Why rush? Money’s in hand, opportunities abound. Swallow the meat already in your mouth first.
$BTC Firefly Trading · Macro Final Judgment (30-Year US Treasury)
The 30-year US Treasury is by no means a one-way new starting point, nor is it an absolute peak.
Short term: Wide fluctuations at high levels, sentiment-driven volatility.
Medium term: The interest rate center is completely raised, and the low interest rate era is permanently over.
The current 5.2% range is the critical dividing line between bulls and bears:
Holding above 5.25% opens a new round of long-end rate increases;
Falling below 4.9% confirms a temporary peak, leading to bond market recovery and rebound.
Core logic:
Long bonds no longer trade on Fed rate cuts but on fiscal supply surplus + long-term inflation uncertainty + term premium revaluation.
High interest rates will gradually suppress the economy, so there is no sustained one-way bull market;
But the structural paradigm has changed, and the future will only see high volatility, a high center, and difficulty in deep declines.
Global asset logic unified:
High long bonds → suppress growth, suppress risk assets, support RWA fundamentals.#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ AI Volatility Check: Cloud AI is stable, while memory remains under pressure
$QQQ's trading range is 1.4% from the intraday high to low, currently rebounding close to the intraday high of $676, while $SPY is approaching the intraday high of $741. This divergence may still be related to domestic pressure on China's memory and semiconductor equipment, while cloud AI remained relatively strong on the first day of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 28-29.
$SOXX, after experiencing a 2.9% intraday high-to-low drop, still hovers in a weak intraday range around $491. $MU is at $817, $SNDK at $1091, $WDC at $440, and $AMD at $455, all rebounding from lows but still well below opening prices; $SNDK fell 9.6% from open to low, $WDC fell 8.2%.
$QQQ rebounded 1.3% from the low, but the semiconductor and memory sectors have yet to recover losses of the same magnitude. Yen war has already begun
Trump personally confirmed: the US will step in to save the yen.
This is not just a verbal warning, nor is it Japan intervening alone.
This is a US-Japan joint effort, declaring war on global short sellers.
USD/JPY violently dropped from around 164 to 156, the yen sharply appreciating in a short time.
Funds that have been recklessly shorting the yen are now facing a national-level opponent.
Don’t think the Bank of Japan is fighting alone anymore.
The US directly backing means this intervention has been upgraded.
Yen shorts are being hunted down by policy.
What’s more frightening is that this is not just a simple currency war.
It will affect US stocks, US bonds, Bitcoin, and global liquidity through yen carry trades.
In recent years, cheap yen funding has flowed everywhere, supporting global risk assets.
Now that the yen is strengthening, funds will be forced to close positions, and liquidity gates will start to tighten.
In short:
The era of shorting the yen is temporarily over.
Next, the market will reprice everything.
#美日确认联合购汇 $BTC $BTC Current comprehensive market sentiment deep dive
Current price reference: 63200–63600 USDT range; Fear and Greed Index ≈28, in the fear zone (25–49)
Core qualitative summary: Overall bearish bias, huge divergence, dominated by wait-and-see sentiment; retail panic, institutional funds caught in a dilemma, derivatives longs and shorts both hesitant to take heavy positions, entering a phase of choppy bottoming sentiment.
I break it down into 5 dimensions for a complete explanation: sentiment indicators, retail sentiment, institutional fund sentiment, derivatives leverage sentiment, macro linkage sentiment, and finally summarize the sentiment corresponding market behavior.
1. Core Sentiment Indicator: Fear and Greed Index (market sentiment thermometer)
Range rules:
0–24 Extreme Fear | 25–49 Fear | 50 Neutral | 51–74 Greed | 75–100 Extreme Greed
Current value 28, standard fear zone, but not extreme panic.
Key interpretation points:
Not reaching extreme fear (<24) means no true panic selling has occurred, the market has not completed the final wave of chip stampede; historical major bottoms mostly occur in the extreme fear zone.
The index lingering at low levels indicates: rebounds lack follow-up capital, every small rise is sold off by stop-loss and short-term profit-taking; slight declines trigger selling worries.
Indicator shortcoming: It is a lagging indicator, only reflecting price sentiment that has already occurred, cannot be used alone for bottom fishing, must be combined with capital and positions.
2. Retail (small spot traders, community sentiment): pessimistic, lacking confidence, typical "passive lying flat"
High-level trapped position mentality
Since the 126,000 high point drop, many retail investors are deeply trapped.
High-level deep traps: unwilling to cut losses, choose to lie flat and not add positions;
. #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%，创历史最大单日涨幅 #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 Runes 2026 Revival: Bitcoin Mainnet Proves for the First Time That "Application Layer Demand Can Decouple from Coin Price"
Another aspect is more counterintuitive and easier to underestimate—Runes pushed Bitcoin mainnet daily transactions to 820,000 in June 2026, a two-year high; among them, Runes messages accounted for over 600,000 transactions, contributing about 25% of the total network fees.
The key is when this data occurred: BTC was around 62,000, halved from the 2025 peak—according to the old script, on-chain activity should have collapsed together. But it didn’t collapse; instead, it hit a two-year high.
Why is this time different:
UTXO native path + OP_RETURN ≤80 bytes, unlike BRC-20 which wildly bloats the UTXO set and relies on off-chain indexers to calculate balances, this is the first "relatively clean" fungible token standard on Bitcoin mainnet.
It pushes "issuing/transferring tokens on Bitcoin" from inscription speculation toward a "mainnet native token layer"; in 2026, multiple Runes L2/sidechains and Lightning Network compatible solutions are integrating with it, aiming to cut high-frequency trading costs by another 90%.
Deeper layer: Runes’ high fee share = a new source of miner security budget. As block rewards shrink after halving, whoever continuously burns fees on mainnet is effectively paying for Bitcoin’s long-term security—this is not a casino, it’s a security model lifeline.
But don’t hype it as "Bitcoin killing it as an application chain." Runes is still mainly meme + new asset issuance, without AMM, lending, perpetuals, or other financial primitives; the late July "Runes upgrade causing mempool explosion and 1000% fee spike" short videos were more community infighting narratives, not a stable state.
The significance of Runes 2026 is not to recreate a Solana, but to prove for the first time—even in a bear market, Bitcoin mainnet can sustain part of its security budget through application layer transactions itself. $BTC JUST IN: Michael Saylor's 'Strategy' sold 1,637 Bitcoin worth $102 million.The yen war has begun! Trump personally confirms joint US-Japan intervention, bears face national rivals head-on. Trump personally declares: The US steps in to support the yen. "Japan needs help, and the United States will always stand by Japan's side." After 15 years, the first coordinated U.S.-Japan foreign exchange market intervention since the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake officially took place. It is no longer a one-sided verbal warning or sporadic entry by Japan, but rather a joint battle between the world's two major economies and a showdown on the market. The USD/JPY plunged sharply from a 40-year low near 164, quickly pulling back to the 156 level. The yen surged violently in the short term, and all the bears betting on continued yen depreciation collided head-on with national-level policy counterparts. Many people simply interpret this joint intervention as a U.S.-Japan alliance, but they fail to see the surging global liquidity game beneath the surface. Japan cannot afford the endless depreciation of the yen driving up energy and food import costs, and imported inflation continues to erode its domestic economy; The essence of the U.S. rescue is self-preservation—to prevent Japan from selling off U.S. Treasuries on a large scale to defend the exchange rate, to avoid losing control of Treasury yields, and to protect its own debt financing foundation. Trump bluntly stated that this exchange rate action is expected to bring financial benefits to the U.S., and stabilizing the yen is beneficial to the global economy. Friendship is just an empty talk; guarding against cross-market systemic risks is the underlying truth. This time, the trading logic has been completely rewritten. For a long time, shorting the yen was the most crowded trade globally. Relying on the huge interest rate gap between the US and Japan, massive amounts of capital borrowed low-yield yen, flowing into US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and overseas equity assets, with massive yen carry trades supporting the world#Coldcard security incident escalates, fourth wave attack warning
The Coldcard issue is still unfolding.
A total of over 1367 bitcoins have been stolen, valued at nearly 90 million USD. Galaxy's research director says the fourth wave of attacks is ongoing.
The real harshness of this situation lies in that it exposes a deep problem in the hardware wallet ecosystem: a large number of users overly rely on a single brand and model, putting all their assets on the "cold" aspect. Once a certain link in that brand has a problem, all users who heavily depend on it are simultaneously exposed to risk.
The essence of the vulnerability is a firmware error. Users who generated mnemonic phrases with Coldcard Mk3 after March 2021 had their seed entropy compressed to a crackable level. Attackers don’t need to touch your device; as long as they know which firmware batch you used, they can directly deduce your private key.
This is very similar to the behavior pattern of many traders in the crypto space—long-term reliance on one platform, one strategy, one direction. When that point of reliance itself has a problem, the entire account blows up.
There are two layers of impact on the crypto community.
The first is at the belief level. Previously, everyone thought "cold wallet = absolute security," but after this incident, that equation needs to be re-examined. A cold wallet only isolates the private key; if the process of generating the private key itself has vulnerabilities, no amount of isolation helps.
The second is practical. Many users are migrating assets, causing increased on-chain congestion and short-term market sentiment pressure. Migration does not equal selling, but short-term exchange deposits rise, combined with market concerns about security issues, which indeed puts pressure on the market.
My view is simple—the underlying logic of self-custody is correct, but don’t put all your eggs in one brand.
If you have a Coldcard Mk3, immediately regenerate your seed and migrate your assets; firmware updates cannot save mnemonic phrases already generated. If uncertain, migrate first. Don’t wait until the fourth wave of attacks ends to ask if it’s still in time.
Security in this market is never a one-time fix; it requires continuous follow-up and ongoing checks. This time it’s Coldcard; next time, no one can predict. $BTC
$SOL $ETH What is most worth looking at together today is that South Korean memory stocks and U.S. pre-market sentiment are clearly following two different logical lines. The KOSPI fell nearly 5% again today, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both plummeted nearly 9%, and the Korea Exchange even triggered the circuit breaker mechanism for the KOSDAQ. Regulators are already discussing reducing the leverage multiples of leveraged ETFs from 2x to 1.5x or even 1x. This is a typical deleveraging stampede, not a fundamental problem. Samsung just announced quarterly operating profits close to $59 billion, and SK Hynix’s full-year profit this year is expected to exceed the total of the past 27 years. The performance numbers are absurdly good, but the stock prices still fell, indicating that the market’s current concern is not demand but that the AI memory trade in recent months has risen too fast and too much, with chips and leverage piled too high. Any slight disturbance triggers a stampede-style liquidation. This is the same logic as Nvidia and memory stocks evaporating over one trillion dollars in market value together last week. Capital is repricing overheated AI capital expenditure expectations.
On the U.S. side, pre-market shows a different picture: S&P futures rose about 0.6%, Nasdaq futures rose between 0.3% and 1%, and Dow futures rose nearly 1%. The direct reason is that Trump announced over the weekend a pause on military strikes against Iran and instead pushed for negotiations. Oil prices dropped more than 6% in response, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell. The easing of geopolitical risks gave the market a reason to breathe. Later today, Palantir will report earnings, and this week AMD, McDonald's, Disney, and the newly listed SpaceX are all lined up to announce results.
My own judgment is that this combination of Korean stock sell-off and U.S. stock rally will not coexist for long. The optimism in the U.S. pre-market is mostly an emotional recovery brought by the single variable of geopolitical easing and does not mean that the pricing anxiety over AI capital expenditure has been resolved. The selling pressure on Korean memory stocks is, after all, another expression of the same set of concerns. What will truly determine whether the memory and semiconductor sectors can stabilize next is the statements on the pace of AI infrastructure spending in the earnings reports of several heavyweight companies this week. The rebound driven by geopolitical news cannot sustain this bigger pricing issue.
$SKHY $SNDK $MU #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ The market is so quiet it's unsettling.🔇 On X, weekly posts mentioning BTC have dropped to about 130,000, and ETH is even worse, with fewer than 40,000 posts. Yes, the buzz in the crypto world has almost gone silent.
The last time the market was this quiet was back in 2020. That was an era before ETFs existed, when Wall Street was still on the sidelines, and institutional funds were just testing the waters. But today? Institutional money has truly entered the market, yet retail investors remain collectively silent. Tweet volumes have fallen back to the freezing point of 2020, but the market's underlying structure has completely changed.📊
History tells us: whenever social media discussion shrinks to this level, it’s often either the bottom or close to it. The market always brews a turning point when no one is paying attention, and collapses when everyone is watching.
My judgment is simple: when everyone is too lazy to talk about the market, that’s exactly when you should be most alert. Real opportunities never appear in the noisy hustle and bustle; they only hide in the silence that no one notices.🙃1. Diagnosis of Condition (Core Issue = Why ICU Admission)
1. Market Confidence Shock (Most Critical Condition)
Previously, the Allbridge-Core cross-chain bridge was hacked (only a similar name, unrelated to the Core public chain), causing many retail investors to confuse the two, panic, and follow the sell-off; combined with a prolonged downtrend, veteran miners lost patience and kept cutting losses to escape.These days, even cold wallets aren't safe?
Hardware wallet Coldcard has suffered several attacks: a total of 1,367 $BTC, about $88.6 million, stolen from 4,585 addresses.
The problem lies in the random number flaw in the 2021 firmware version, making the seed predictable.
What annoys me most about hardware wallets is this marketing: equating offline with security, selling a piece of plastic at a faith price. Being offline only solves the risk of theft from being online, it doesn't fix the manufacturer's own coding mistakes.
I bought some cold wallets during the DeFi period before, and they are still gathering dust in my drawer. Currently, most of my assets are still stored on exchanges.
Honestly, exchanges are safer than 90% of cold wallets nowadays. The most interesting question about GIGGLE right now: Is it just hyping Meme, or is it redefining Meme?
Lately, watching GIGGLE, I feel its biggest difference from many Meme coins is not about how much it rises.
But rather:
It’s the first time the market has started discussing "whether Meme has value capture."
In the past, most Meme logic was very simple:
A meme goes viral.
The community comes.
Funds enter.
Price goes up.
Then wait for the next hype cycle.
So many people think Meme is purely emotional trading.
But GIGGLE is quite special.
It ties trading activity with charitable funds.
The more active the trading, the more funds are generated; part of the funds go into the Giggle Fund to support Giggle Academy’s related educational projects.
This gives it something that previous Memes didn’t have:
Real capital flow.
But there is actually a contradiction here.
Many people see charity and think the project naturally has more long-term value.
But the trading market doesn’t work that way.
Charity is a bonus.
Not a valuation logic.
What really determines GIGGLE’s long-term value is:
Whether there are sustained users;
Whether there is ongoing trading demand;
Whether the community can stay after the hype fades.
Because any model that generates value based on trading volume has a common problem:
When the market cools down, can the capital flow continue?
If there are large daily trades, the charity mechanism can keep running.
But if the hype fades and trading volume drops, can this cycle be maintained?
This is the real test the market will pose.
So I think GIGGLE is currently in a very interesting position.
It’s no longer an ordinary Meme.
But it hasn’t yet proven itself as a mature asset.
It needs to answer one question:
When people stop paying attention to it because of price gains, how many will still stay?
If the answer is yes.
Then it might become an experiment of Meme transitioning into a value asset.
If the answer is no.
Then it will ultimately return to the most familiar Meme cycle:
Hype → FOMO → decline.
So when I look at GIGGLE, I won’t simply call it a trash Meme, nor will I blindly bullish it just because of the charity story.
The market ultimately recognizes only one thing:
Sustained demand.
Stories can bring the first wave of funds.
But only mechanisms can decide if it can survive.
DYOR.$GIGGLE The Coldcard hack is now on its fifth day, and both $BTC and $ETH are bleeding because of it; this is the real address.
Just a 2-minute read will change how you see it. This is not just random dumping; people are pulling funds and reducing risk due to hardware wallet fears, and this is a completely different kind of selling than liquidation.
The price action is honestly calm. No violent wicks, just continuous bleeding, and this tells me that hands are moving money carefully, not in panic.
I won’t touch my levels because of this. It’s a security concern, not a structural breakdown. I’ll watch how $BTC and $ETH hold here before calling it anything more.
$BTC $ETH2026-8-3 BTC-ETH Intraday Key Long and Short Entry Point Strategy
Brothers, good evening. Sorry for the late market analysis. Based on yesterday's market situation, BTC and ETH just touched the key long-short boundary line I emphasized for you all: BTC at 63,000 and ETH at 1860. After that, ETH couldn't go lower. Last night there was a small-scale rebound that just reached the long-short boundary line after last week's decline.
So next, focus on the key long-short boundary range I highlighted. If the rebound fails to break above again, then be cautious when it retests the support. BTC and ETH's previous lows this afternoon likely won't hold. Those looking to go long should wait for the second or third support levels: BTC at 63,000 and ETH at 1862. Only if these levels hold and the price stabilizes above them will a small-scale rebound begin. Last night's previous high presents a shorting opportunity.
Today, BTC's key focus is on a 1-2 hour level retest that does not break below 63,000; only then will the 1-2 hour small-scale rebound start. Watch the three major intraday resistance levels above. For aggressive shorts, consider 63,800; for conservative shorts, 65,400; and for extreme shorts, around 67,000.
If BTC fails to break above 63,000 again today, it means this rebound lacks strength. The previous low will likely not hold on a retest. Then watch the three major intraday support levels below. For aggressive longs, 62,230; for conservative longs, 61,300; and for extreme longs, around 59,800.
For ETH today, focus on a 1-2 hour close and rebound that holds above 1862; only then will the 1-2 hour small-scale rebound begin. The market will continue to rebound, so watch the three intraday resistance levels above: aggressive shorts at 1898, conservative shorts at 1936, and extreme shorts at 1982.
If ETH fails to break above 1862 today, it means this rebound lacks strength. The previous low will likely not hold on a retest. Watch the three intraday support levels below: aggressive longs at 1820, conservative longs at 1778, and extreme longs around 1748.
Position management is key. Strictly control position sizes, adhere to a light position principle. Slow is fast. The market is ever-changing; the levels are for reference only. Profit potential relates to individual risk tolerance.Q-Day countdown 1063 days:
"Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer" (CRQC)
15% probability: Arrives early or on time at Q-Day 2029-07-1, migration just starting → Potential real social loss about 907 billion USD ≈ 6.5 trillion RMB, the most expensive version among the three.
45% probability: Delayed by 3.5 years (until 2032-01), major migration completed according to current roadmap → Real loss reduced to 274 billion USD ≈ 2 trillion RMB, about 30% of Scenario A.
50-70% probability: CRQC not built in 10-20 years, quantum threat not realized → Real loss zero, but ongoing post-quantum R&D/maintenance technical debt costs are extra.
Key reminder
This is a scenario valuation magnitude of "exposure × unmigrated proportion," not an incurred loss nor a precise prediction; dormant lost keys portion (1.7 million BTC etc.) theoretically can be moved but original owners have long accepted losses, not counted as new social loss.
$BTC $ETH "Tonight's Big Show in the US Stock Market! Beware of Pitfalls in the Sector Split Market"
Tonight, the US stock market will not see a broad rally or decline; extreme divergence will run throughout, with capital frantically switching tracks, directly widening the gap between strong and weak sectors!
Microsoft remains a safe haven for bulls, with cloud business combined with AI paid services continuously delivering, steadily lifting the oscillation center of gravity. The pullback support is strong, making it the most resilient leader in the tech sector. Nvidia is being pulled back and forth, with valuation pressure obvious, making it difficult to sustain large bullish candles; short-term volatility will be especially fierce.
Storage sector risks must be closely watched! The Asia-Pacific market is weakening first, with negative sentiment continuing to spread. South Korea's SK Hynix, supported by HBM orders, has decent resistance to decline; SanDisk's pressure is visibly apparent, with massive profits accumulated from previous rallies, so even a slight rise triggers short-term capital to flock to take profits.
Capital is now flocking to the HBM track, while SanDisk mainly focuses on NAND flash memory, which is a long-term logic and currently lacks strong main force support. Recently, it has repeatedly shown a pattern of rising then falling. Tonight will likely see wide fluctuations; if Nasdaq sentiment cools, its downside elasticity is much greater than SK Hynix, so bottom-fishing must be done with extreme caution.
Amazon and Google show relatively stable trends, with AI cloud business continuously generating revenue, possessing good resistance to decline. Apple lacks positive catalysts and will likely continue to underperform the market.
Currently, capital is fleeing from high-level hardware chips, continuously flowing into software and cloud companies that can convert AI into profits. Nasdaq must hold support for individual stocks to have a chance to recover; once market sentiment plunges, the storage sector will be the first to be sold off.
The sector heat is completely divided; blindly going all in on hardware chips—can it really withstand tonight's turbulent test? $BTC $SNDK #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 After the sharp drop in July, foreign capital is quietly returning to the South Korean stock market.
Last Friday, the South Korean stock market rebounded sharply, with foreign investors ending the continuous net selling trend since the beginning of this year by buying about 7.2 trillion KRW (approximately $5 billion) worth of South Korean stocks in a single day, setting a record for the largest single-day net purchase in history. Meanwhile, South Korean retail investors are suffering huge losses as the market has fallen about 40% from the June peak, creating a divergence pattern of "foreign capital bottom-fishing, retail investors cutting losses."
How severe is the leverage cleanup?
Data from JPMorgan Chase shows that the asset size of leveraged ETFs targeting Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix has plummeted from about $50 billion in late June to about $17 billion last week—a 66% shrinkage. JPMorgan's analysis team believes that South Korean hedge funds have deleveraged by about 90%, returning to a healthier level. The average short position in the South Korean market has dropped from a recent peak of about 5.3% to 4.3%.
Analysts point out that the previous sharp decline was more due to fund liquidation rather than deterioration in corporate fundamentals.
What do institutions think?
Steve Lawrence, Chief Investment Officer of Balfour Capital Group, said this round of adjustment is a "leverage event," not a profitability issue. He believes Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix still benefit from the recovery of the memory chip cycle and growth in AI infrastructure investment, and the current price drop offers an undervaluation opportunity.
But risks are not completely eliminated
The South Korean KOSPI index surged a record 17.9% last Friday but fell nearly 5% again on Monday, showing that market volatility remains intense. The South Korean government has begun restricting high-leverage products, and retail investor confidence has been severely damaged—even with large foreign capital inflows, retail funds may not return synchronously in the short term.
Moreover, whether the scale of the $5 billion single-day net purchase by foreign capital this round is sustainable still needs to be observed in the following trading days' capital flows.
The $5 billion single-day purchase by foreign capital set a historical record, and the leverage cleanup is nearing its end. However, South Korean retail investor confidence has collapsed, high volatility continues, and regulation is still tightening—the bottom may not be far, but recovery will take time.
$SNDK $SOXL $SPCX
#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 "What is the development trend of the storage chip industry?"
The AI wave has completely rewritten the logic of the storage sector; the industry is no longer a simple cyclical market where all rise and fall together. Extreme structural differentiation will become the long-term norm.
High-end HBM memory is currently the biggest hotspot. The rigid demand for AI large model training is right in front of us. South Korea's SK Hynix holds leading production capacity, with orders locked in early, continuously enjoying high premiums. Major manufacturers prioritize supplying advanced wafers to HBM, continuously squeezing ordinary DRAM capacity. The prosperity of this sector is unlikely to cool down quickly in the short term.
On the other side of the sector, NAND flash memory logic is completely different, which is SanDisk's main business direction. AI inference, vector databases, and massive cold data storage will continuously drive enterprise SSD demand in the long term. However, in the short term, capital attention is focused on HBM, causing stocks like SanDisk to be persistently overlooked by investors. Consumer demand recovery is relatively slow, and the industry's price increase pace is much milder compared to high-end memory.
The capacity strategies of industry giants have also changed; they no longer blindly expand production but generally actively control capacity and stabilize product prices to avoid repeating past crash cycles. However, capacity expansion plans are gradually being implemented, and after the second half of 2027, the concentrated release of new capacity will gradually alleviate the current tight supply situation.
Looking at the stock market, the difference is obvious. SK Hynix is tied to the hottest HBM mainline, showing stronger stock price resilience; SanDisk relies on the long-term logic of NAND and can only wait for capital rotation. Even if the industry as a whole moves upward, individual stock performance will be severely differentiated. Choosing the wrong sub-sector makes it difficult to keep up with sector returns.
The cycle has not completely disappeared; it has just been extended by AI demand. Caution is needed at high levels; once AI capital expenditure slows down, storage price fluctuations will quickly transmit to stock prices.
The sector's cold and warm splits continue. Can we still expect a broad rally in the storage sector?
⚠️Friendly reminder: The content is only a market review opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 Precise Delivery! Definitely a front-line cannon! #韩股重挫5%, long-short signals in storage face off. The day before, Morgan Stanley heavily promoted the 36% upside potential of Korean stocks, and a flood of people rushed in to buy the dip and hold stocks. I laid out my view on the table: institutions are making long-term promises, short-term bullish inducements, and directly positioning myself in SK Hynix short positions. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard. The results need no further explanation—the market has already given the answer. SK Hynix plunged nearly 8 points, KOSDAQ's drop triggered risk control thresholds, and exchanges immediately activated sidecar mechanisms and suspended programmatic trading. The familiar Korean leveraged stampede market is playing out again. Many people are misled by institutional research reports and ignore the core reality: South Korean retail investors' leverage is far from fully liquidated. Friday's surge was just a pulse driven by short covering, not a long-term capital entry at all. The release of good news is just right to help high-priced chips find buyers. A brief summary of the current price level of $SKHYNIX $SKHY $SNDK The first short-term support is 1040-1050, which is the low range of this round of decline; If support fails, the next target range is 980-1010, which is the previously predicted bottom area. Rebound pressure should first be at 1100. As long as it cannot hold above 1100 again, the bearish trend remains unchanged. To reiterate, the biggest risk in this round of the Korean market remains retail investor leverage. As long as you still hold a large amount of leveraged positions, volatility, sharp rises, and falls will become the norm. Never call a trend reversal just because of a single rebound. Keep up with the flow of thought$SOL Solana's recent series of tokenomics upgrades (mainly including proposals such as SIMD-547, SIMD-550, and SIMD-553) aim to shift the economic model from "inflation-driven" to "usage-driven." The significance is far-reaching, mainly reflected in the following aspects: 📈 Fundamental shift: from inflation-dependent to usage-driven · Imbalance: Currently, Solana issues about 60,000 SOL daily due to inflation, while only about 650 SOL is burned daily. The scale of burning is almost negligible compared to new issuance. Two-pronged approach to narrow the gap: Accelerating Inflation Reduction (SIMD-550): Increases the annual SOL inflation decline rate from 15% to 30%, with an expected reduction of approximately 18.89 million SOL issued over six years, shortening the time to reach the 1.5% final inflation rate from 5.7 years to 2.8 years. Significantly increased fee burn (SIMD-547/553): Introduced a 100% fee burn mechanism based on transaction computing resources. The daily burn limit is expected to increase from the current 650 to between 7,500 and 64,800 tokens, with the cap almost fully offsetting the daily new supply. ⚖️ Changes in Supply-Demand Structure and Potential Deflation · Supply side: Significantly reduce new SOL minting by accelerating inflation decline. · Demand and burn side: The more active the network, the more SOL is burned. Potential impact: If the amount burned continues to exceed the amount of new issuance, SOL will be driven by inflation"August 3 Evening Major US Stock Market Outlook"
Tonight, the structural divergence in the US stock market will continue to widen, with capital persistently selecting the best opportunities, so there will be no broad-based rise or fall.
Microsoft remains the core long position for bullish funds, relying on cloud business and AI office subscription growth logic. Its oscillation center steadily moves upward with relatively limited pullback space, and it is very likely to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term. Nvidia's movement fluctuates with computing power sentiment, facing significant valuation pressure above, making it difficult to sustain large continuous bullish candles.
There is a huge disparity within the storage sector. South Korea's SK Hynix holds HBM orders supporting it, directly targeting AI training core demands, with institutions showing strong medium- to long-term holding willingness and greater resilience in its trend. Focusing on SanDisk, recent market pressure is particularly prominent. The previous large rally accumulated massive profit-taking positions, so even a slight rise will trigger short-term funds to concentrate on taking profits and exiting.
The Asia-Pacific market's storage sector has adjusted ahead, with negative sentiment continuing to transmit, further suppressing the buying atmosphere for SanDisk. Capital is currently frantically chasing HBM-related industry chain stocks. SanDisk mainly operates NAND flash memory, benefiting from the AI cold data storage sector, which is a medium- to long-term logic, lacking short-term mainline capital clustering.
As earnings reports approach, capital generally maintains a wait-and-see attitude, reluctant to make large directional bets. Reviewing recent trading days, SanDisk has repeatedly shown a pattern of surging then falling back, likely maintaining wide oscillations tonight. If the Nasdaq stabilizes the atmosphere, SanDisk has a chance for slight recovery; if market sentiment cools, its pullback elasticity will far exceed SK Hynix, with significant downside risk, making it very difficult to effectively break through resistance above.
Amazon and Google show steady trends, with AI cloud business continuously delivering revenue, possessing strong downside resistance. In contrast, Apple lacks positive catalysts and is very likely to continue underperforming the market in the short term.
On the macro level, repeated interest rate cut expectations are pulling capital away from high-level hardware sectors toward software cloud companies that can realize AI revenue. If the market holds high levels, individual stocks still have recovery opportunities; if sentiment cools, the storage sector's correction will far exceed that of leading cloud companies.
Sector divergence is intensifying. Can blindly holding all tech stocks really preserve gains?
⚠️Friendly reminder: Content is only a market review opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 I have long been optimistic about $BTC and $ETH, but the reason cannot be limited to "the US printing money crazily." The latest U.S. Treasury estimate is $39.84 trillion, just about $160 billion short of $40 trillion. The CBO expects a deficit of $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and expand to $3.1 trillion by 2036. The faster debt rolls over, the harder it is for governments to endure high interest rates long-term, ultimately having to choose between raising taxes, cutting spending, diluting inflation, and easing monetary policy. This trend is most direct for BTC: the 21 million supply cap is a challenge to the expanding fiat credit system. ETH's logic is different: it bets on stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA continuing to bring global financial activity on-chain, and debt growth itself does not automatically increase ETH's value. In the short term, there are also negative effects: the more bonds issued, the higher the yields on U.S. Treasuries, which can actually drain liquidity, causing BTC and ETH to fall. Long-term bullish does not mean every position is cheap. If you could only hold one asset to hedge against dollar dilution in the next decade, would you choose BTC, gold, or ETH? #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 Morgan Stanley raised its rating on Korean stocks to "overweight" over the weekend, targeting 9000 points, saying there is still 36% upside potential.
At Monday's open, the KOSPI plunged nearly 5%.
This bottom only lasted one weekend.
Samsung Electronics fell more than 7%, SK Hynix dropped nearly 8%.
Three days ago, these two stocks rose 27% and 30% respectively, with SK Hynix even hitting the daily limit up.
The three-day gains were mostly given back in one day.
A violent rebound during a deleveraging cycle is actually the most dangerous signal. Those trapped finally see a rebound, and their first reaction is to run.
Today, the two major semiconductor leaders in Korea both fell more than 7%, indicating trapped positions are being sold off in concentration.
The peak margin balance in Korea was 38.6 trillion KRW, and it has only dropped 17% so far.
In the past twenty years, every deleveraging in Korea saw margin balances fall at least 38%, with the deepest drop reaching 85%. A 17% drop is not even a warm-up.
One-third of retail leverage is concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix; when everyone sells the same stock simultaneously, the stampede cycle, once started, cannot be stopped.
The day Morgan Stanley called for overweight was the last entry ticket retail investors received.
Funds chasing the rebound ultimately become liquidity for others to clear their positions.Many people ask if the current round of deleveraging in South Korea has ended.
I'll give the conclusion directly: leverage has never been so easy to clear all at once. If deleveraging could be completed simply and easily, the market wouldn't have so many repeated torturous fluctuations.
Let me clearly explain what true and thorough deleveraging should look like.
Truly determined leverage cleanup means the toughest measure is not a slow passive decline, but directly removing all high-leverage products and illegal financing channels, cutting off funds at the source.
But South Korea finds it difficult to take this path. There is a key difference compared to our deleveraging back in 2015.
Back then, when we cleaned up off-exchange margin financing, the capital flow system was closed domestically, and regulators could directly cut off channels and block illegal funds with a hard stop.
But South Korea is different: the Korean won is freely convertible, and the capital market is open to the outside.
Regulators can at most require on-exchange investors to add margin but cannot completely close loopholes.
Retail investors can fully use overseas channels to effectively increase leverage again, making it very difficult for regulators to control comprehensively.
This explains why after a big drop, the market quickly rebounds.
You can clearly see now that many investors still rush in to go long and bet on reversals when they see rebounds.
Based on my many years of observing leveraged markets, the pattern has never changed:
In a huge leveraged bull market, those who actually get liquidated and lose everything right at the top are not the majority.
The heaviest casualties are always those who keep bottom-fishing and betting on rebounds during the downtrend.
After this kind of high-leverage bubble bursts, the market usually goes back and forth with two or three fake rebounds, continuously attracting bottom-fishing capital to enter.
The rebounds look violent, like one bullish candle changing everything, but in essence, they are buffering windows for phased liquidation of leveraged funds.
Generally, only when retail incremental funds are completely exhausted and no new funds enter to bet, will true and thorough deleveraging arrive.
Only when the last batch of bottom-fishing capital is fully depleted will the final concentrated sell-off occur, completing a large-scale clearing of leverage.
From this pattern, South Korea's deleveraging decline has only just begun. It's indeed a bit strange! In the past two days, long-term holders (LTH) have suddenly moved a large amount of chips.
For two consecutive days, over 65,000 BTC have been moved (excluding internal transfers within the same entity), causing a significant drop in LTH net holdings.
As shown in Figure 2, LTH net holdings started to deviate from the previously continuous upward trend since May and have been "stagnant" until July.
This is a very rare phenomenon in the past year.
Nearly 14,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges. For example, Trump's publicly listed company transferred 2,628 BTC to the Crypto.com exchange, which is part of this.
As for the rest of the net reduction in LTH holdings, where they went and for what purpose, we do not know.
Could it be that they know something and chose to hedge early?
Regarding possible macro risks, especially those affecting BTC, here are the ones I can think of:
1⃣ The possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. This time, the vote was split 9:3, the most dissenting votes since September 2016.
2⃣ Middle East conflicts and oil prices are the biggest variables for inflation and are upstream factors of point 1.
3⃣ The US stock market AI sector valuation is highly concentrated, and capital expenditures increasingly rely on debt and private credit financing. If revenue falls short of expectations and financing costs rise, it could trigger systemic deleveraging.
4⃣ The yen carry trade positions have once again piled up into a one-sided net short, crowded and close to historical extremes.
Are there others? Friends are welcome to help me add more.
Finally, the current sensitivity of BTC's own chip structure will also invisibly amplify the above potential risk points.
--------------------------------
Of course, this does not mean it will definitely happen; it is just our speculation based on the abnormal behavior suddenly appearing in LTH.
Where there is abnormality, there must be a reason. We should closely monitor LTH behavior changes recently.
If large-scale distribution continues, it will inevitably put pressure on the market. If it is just a brief individual behavior, the impact will be limited. Coldcard's recent spike in on-chain activity likely reflects user migration, not just attacker movement.
The bigger question isn't how much BTC is moving—it's who controls it.
Current evidence suggests this was a bounded seed-generation vulnerability, where affected firmware produced wallet secrets that could be guessed for a limited set of devices.
Meanwhile, a significant portion of the suspected stolen BTC reportedly remains in attacker-controlled addresses, while smaller amounts have begun moving through peel chains and other services.
That distinction matters:
🔹 Defensive wallet migration can temporarily inflate on-chain activity without adding meaningful selling pressure.
🔹 The primary near-term market risk comes from attacker-controlled inventory. If those holdings begin moving to exchanges, they could create localized sell pressure.
For now, separating defensive transfers from potential liquidation flows is key when interpreting the on-chain data.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surges—can risk assets continue their rally?
Recently, the global market focus has once again returned to U.S. Treasuries.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated, sparking market debate:
Is this the final sprint before long-term rates peak, or the start of a new high-rate era?
For the stock market, Treasury yields determine valuations.
For the crypto market, they decide whether capital is willing to take on risk.
In recent years, the market has been anticipating Federal Reserve rate cuts.
But the reality is that long-term rates have not fallen as quickly as short-term rates.
The reason is simple:
The market is concerned about U.S. fiscal pressure.
As U.S. debt continues to grow and long-term Treasury supply increases, investors demand higher yields to hold long-term bonds.
This means:
The market is pricing in higher future inflation and fiscal risks.
The rise in the 30-year Treasury yield essentially signals to the market:
Capital is reassessing risks over the next decade.
Why does this affect the crypto market?
Because crypto assets remain highly volatile and risky.
When risk-free yields are higher, institutional capital compares:
Holding Treasuries
or allocating to assets like BTC, ETH, etc.
If Treasury yields continue to rise, some capital may choose to reduce risk exposure.
This also explains the recent volatility in BTC and ETH prices.
Currently, Bitcoin is holding around $62,600.
After BTC failed to break $65,000, the price entered a correction.
In the short term, the market is testing:
Whether the $62,000 support holds.
If Treasury yields keep rising and risk appetite declines, Bitcoin may remain under pressure.
Watch:
The $62,000 support zone below.
The $64,000–$65,000 resistance above.
Ethereum is currently around $1,840.
ETH’s recent performance is clearly weaker than previously expected.
Although long-term themes like ETFs, RWA, and DeFi remain intact, in a high-rate environment, capital is more cautious about high-valuation assets.
Key ETH levels now:
$1,800 support.
$1,900 resistance.
If it cannot reclaim $1,900, the short-term outlook remains weak.
As for SOL, the price is oscillating near $70.
Compared to BTC and ETH, SOL is more sensitive to market sentiment.
When market risk appetite rises, SOL attracts significant capital due to its active ecosystem and high elasticity.
But when Treasury yields rise and the market shifts to risk-off mode, such high-volatility assets usually face greater pressure.
However, rising Treasury yields do not necessarily mean a long-term downturn for crypto.
If the rise in long-term rates reflects a strong economy rather than runaway inflation, risk assets may still find support.
What really matters is:
Whether the 30-year Treasury yield forms a top.
If yields peak and then decline, capital will seek new yield opportunities, potentially opening a new liquidity window for crypto.
My view:
The 30-year Treasury yield now looks more like a global capital repricing.
For crypto, the short-term focus is not the narrative but the cost of capital.
BTC needs to hold $62,000.
ETH needs to hold $1,800.
SOL needs to find support near $70.
If long-term rates continue to rise, the market may remain volatile.
But if Treasury yields start to fall and liquidity expectations improve, crypto could regain capital inflows.
This market cycle is not just about coin prices.
It’s about where global capital flows next. $BTC Contradictory signals emerge! Trump family mining company American Bitcoin suffers huge losses but continues to accumulate BTC against the trend
Daily Brief: American Bitcoin, the Bitcoin mining company under the Trump family, disclosed its Q2 financial report with highly contrasting core data:
1. Recorded a net loss of $57.2 million in Q2, with a fair value loss on digital assets reaching $71.2 million;
2. Mining business revenue remained stable, with quarterly income of $67 million;
3. Key point: BTC holdings at the end of the period increased to 8,002 coins, a 14% quarter-on-quarter growth, choosing to continue hoarding coins during the down cycle.
I. Breakdown of the contradictory financial report
1. Source of losses: mainly unrealized losses on the books, mining main business generating normal cash flow
The huge loss mainly comes from the revaluation of digital asset market value, i.e., the book loss caused by Bitcoin price correction, not from mining business losses.
Mining still generates stable cash flow, with $67 million revenue proving a solid foundation of hash rate operations. As long as BTC holdings are not forced to be sold, unrealized losses are only accounting results and do not represent actual cash outflow.
2. Accumulating against the trend, what attitude does it convey?
During the market correction phase, instead of selling to cash out, the company continues to absorb Bitcoin, indicating that its long-term strategy remains unchanged.
Backed by the Trump family, this company is not just mining; it is deeply tied to the US crypto policy narrative. It is a long-term bet on Bitcoin strategic reserves and the long-term value brought by industry-friendly regulation.
But it must be clear: bullish on the long term ≠ no short-term continued unrealized losses. Continuous accumulation means bearing the risk of further price declines.
3. Industry comparison reference
Currently, many listed mining companies are diverging: some face cash flow pressure and are forced to liquidate BTC during price drops to fund operations; others, long-term institutions and strategic miners, choose to hold or even increase positions.
American Bitcoin belongs to the latter, adopting a "mine and hold" model, reducing secondary market sales and waiting for the cycle to improve.
II. Two points ordinary traders should be cautious about
❶ Do not simply interpret: institutional accumulation = immediate surge. Institutional holding periods are measured in years; short-term traders cannot directly copy institutional strategies;
❷ Unrealized loss risk objectively exists. As long as BTC remains under pressure, this company’s financial reports will continue to show asset impairment losses, which may cause market interpretation divergence emotionally.
III. Market inference thinking
Such crypto entities tied to US politics continuously hoarding coins is beneficial to Bitcoin policy narratives in the long run.
Short-term market trends are still dominated by macro liquidity and US Treasury yields. Institutional long-term layout can only serve as a baseline confidence reference, not a short-term bottom-fishing signal.
Interactive question: Multiple institutions are accumulating against the trend; do you think the bottom of this adjustment is slowly approaching?
$BTC $TRUMP
📌Liquidity selection | Today's continuous watchlist:
$BTC · $ETH · $SOL · $BEAT · $EDGE · $COAI · $TRUMP · $VIRTUAL · $SPACE · $SOPH · $IP · $AVNT · $ZAMA · $OFC · $PIEVERSE ·
$ACU · $H · $MEGA · $JELLYJELLY · $OPG · $SLX · $LAB · $BSB · $ALLO · $CHIP · $MEME · $EDEN · $HUMA · $ZKP · $CORE · $TAO · $WLD · $DOGE · $RENDER · $TIA · $HYPE · $METIS · $AVAX · $SUI · $ZEC
⚠️Content is for informational interpretation only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; strictly control trading positions.$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
"August 3 Evening Major US Stock Market Outlook"
Tonight, the structural divergence in the US stock market will continue to widen, with capital persistently selecting the best opportunities, so there will be no broad-based rise or fall.
Microsoft remains the core long position for bullish funds, relying on cloud business and AI office subscription growth logic. Its oscillation center steadily moves upward with relatively limited pullback space, and it is very likely to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term. Nvidia's trend fluctuates with computing power sentiment, facing significant valuation pressure above, making it difficult to sustain large continuous bullish candles.
There is a huge disparity within the storage sector. South Korea's SK Hynix, supported by HBM orders, shows stronger resilience; SanDisk is clearly under pressure, with selling pressure evident in the early session. Having accumulated a large amount of profit-taking positions previously, any rally will trigger capital realization, leading to wide oscillations in the evening. Breaking through resistance will be very difficult.
Amazon and Google show steady trends, with AI cloud business continuously delivering revenue, possessing strong downside resistance. In contrast, Apple lacks positive catalysts and is very likely to continue underperforming the market in the short term.
On the macro level, repeated tug-of-war over interest rate cut expectations is causing capital to withdraw from high-level hardware sectors and flow into software cloud companies that can realize AI revenue. If the market stabilizes at a high level, individual stocks still have repair opportunities; once sentiment cools, the storage sector's correction will far exceed that of leading cloud enterprises.
Sector divergence is intensifying. Can blindly holding all tech stocks really preserve your gains?
⚠️ Friendly reminder: The content is only a market review opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
Would you like me to split this into multiple independent tweet versions?$GIGGLE TONIGHT'S TREND
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention $GIGGLE Tonight: Recovery Momentum or Just a Light Bounce?
After a series of strong fluctuations, the $GIGGLE market tonight is witnessing an extremely fierce tug-of-war between the Bulls (Long) trying to catch the bottom and the Bears (Short) increasing profit-taking pressure.
Market Highlights Tonight:
* Support zone conflict: Price is fluctuating around the $40 – $55 range after a large liquidity sweep. The $40.0 mark is currently a key technical support for buyers.
* Supply & Sentiment: Fixed supply (1M tokens) along with community factors from Giggle Academy remain the motivation to retain long-term Holders. However, liquidation pressure on high-leverage Margin/Futures positions still exerts short-term downward pressure on price.
* Technical scenario: Holding the current support level will open recovery opportunities toward the $50 – $56 resistance zone. Conversely, if the $40 level breaks, stop-loss selling pressure could push the price to lower zones.
Trading Strategy:
* Scalpers/Traders: Mandatory to set Stop-loss, reduce leverage, and closely monitor volume on smaller timeframes (15m/1h) to avoid liquidity sweeps on both ends.
* Holders: Patiently observe market absorption strength before considering additional entries.
Which side are you on tonight: Bottom catching Long or Trend following? Comment below! 👇
#OKX Orbit #GIGGLE #CryptoNews #Trading
#30YrYieldTopOrStart $SOL $BEAT The market loves to quietly change the script when everyone thinks the weekend will be quiet. Have you ever thought that what really kicks a market into action is often not the data, but the kind of news that instantly brings everyone a sigh of relief? Last night before bed, I was still watching the market, feeling like the whole market was a pot of lukewarm water. Altcoins were dropping on shrinking volume, and both longs and bears were testing their patience. But when he woke up, Trump pressed the pause button on the US-Iran conflict, instantly clearing geopolitical risks, and funds surged back into risk assets like a tide that had been held back for a long time. The entire industry saw a broad rise, and even my most inconspicuous small position in my holdings benefited from the trend dividend. Many people only see "good news drives the price up," but I think what's truly worth pondering is another layer: the impact of this sudden news precisely exposes the market's true state—people have long wanted to buy, but lack a reason. So once the news broke, FOMO ignited almost instantly, not slowly brewing. This indicates that sentiment has been compressed to a critical point, and any marginal change could be amplified or priced in. Today, the account's net value continued to rise, with a historical win rate reaching 89.46%. Total assets grew from the initial 300 yuan to 6923.13. To be honest, the numbers themselves are no longer the main point; what I care about more is the rhythm. Throughout the entire rebound, I hardly took the initiative to add positions; I just let my existing positions follow the trend on their own. The only new layout is the medium- to long-term Martin base position of $GIGGLE, which is not high or heavy, purely trading time for space. - The bullish side is: geopolitical risks#特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC，性质未披露
What do you mean, blondie, are you going to dump?
Is this president quitting? Cashing out and running?
The strongest signal caller, even a single transfer causes fluctuations in the hundreds of billions.
Your move feels like a major earthquake.
Bitcoin $BTC and $ETH Ethereum are directly plunging.
Why is the US stock market also continuously going down?
My spcx is still stuck at 115, am I supposed to keep it as a family heirloom?
Musk, wake up, where’s the momentum you had when pumping Dogecoin?
$SNDK, $MU, and $SKHYNIX are also falling.
I’m bullish on storage for the long term, but it can’t fluctuate this wildly.
It’s frustrating to watch because I’m always going long.
I’m betting it will rally at tonight’s open!! Longs, assemble.
These past two days, some meme coins like $BEAT have really broken my heart.
I’m going to make it back on the US stock market, and the money I’m making is your capitalist money!
#财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 I've been watching $SPCX , but I'm not rushing in ahead of Q2 earnings.
The report drops after the U.S. market closes on Aug. 4, and I'll be watching revenue growth and whether the company's heavy investments are starting to translate into long-term value.
I still see $SPCX as a compelling AI infrastructure play with exposure to computing, satellites, robotics, energy, and space.
I'm staying patient—not chasing. A dip below $100 gets my attention, while $80 would be a much stronger accumulation zone if the market gives the opportunity.
Patience beats FOMO.
$XSPCX
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#USJapanYenIntervention Quick gut-check on the market 📊
"The '$BTC just hit a new record' talk going around? Not accurate. $BTC is still trading well below its all-time high — it's recovering, not breaking new ground."
This is a rotation market, not an everything-pumps market, and capital is moving with purpose. $BTC and $ETH remain the names drawing the most eyes in flow data, even though ETF inflows have actually run negative lately.
Meanwhile RWA and infrastructure plays like $LINK and $ONDO keep pulling bids as traders hunt for relative strength.
Macro noise is real too: the 30-year yield is holding elevated, and the rare U.S.-Japan yen intervention is adding fresh risk-on/risk-off tension. Follow the data, not the hype.
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead Korean stocks have crashed again, with storage bulls and bears fiercely clashing, and the crypto circle is shaking along
Today, the Korean KOSPI index dropped more than 5% again, led by the storage chip giants—Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunging, causing the market to explode. Simply put, this is a direct showdown between "AI faith" and "leveraged liquidation."
Starting with the bears: Korean stocks have fallen nearly 40% from the June peak, and on July 28th, there was a single-day plunge of over 10% triggering a circuit breaker, the eighth time this year, a pace even fiercer than the 2008 financial crisis. Why? Korean retail investors are too crazy, using leveraged ETFs to bet solely on SK Hynix. When the stock price falls, it triggers a "drop-ETF forced sell-more drop" death spiral. Plus, global institutions are starting to doubt: can AI money really be made back? OpenAI's IPO has been postponed to 2027, and cloud providers' AI infrastructure investments might be "circular financing" fooling themselves. Once this narrative collapses, the valuation logic of storage chips is shaken.
Now the bulls: SK Hynix's Q2 profits surged 557% year-over-year, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is in short supply, long-term contracts signed through 2030, and storage prices are still rising. Nomura has a target price of 4.7 million KRW for SK Hynix, 255% above the current price. The fundamentals are rock solid, but the stock price just won't rise—a typical "good earnings, falling stock price" contradictory market.
What does this have to do with the crypto market? A lot. You see, tech stocks and crypto assets are essentially the same type of "high-risk narrative assets"—they rise on stories and fall on liquidity. When Korean stocks crash and the Fed signals hawkishness, global risk assets tremble together. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others have increasing correlation with Nasdaq; when tech stocks collapse, crypto can't stand alone. Moreover, Korea is one of the most active global crypto trading markets; if retail investors there are liquidating leveraged stock positions, crypto funds likely have to withdraw to cover margin.
In summary: The storage chip bulls and bears standoff is on the surface a battle of earnings versus valuation, but deeper down it reflects global liquidity tightening and the repricing of all high-risk assets. This Korean stock drama serves as a warning to the crypto circle—when the leverage feast ends, no matter how good the story sounds, you have to eat according to the Fed's mood. Be cautious in the short term; don't treat leverage like faith as Korean retail investors do. #韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙 Source | WhiteLine compilation | Wu Shuo Blockchain Seeks Direction, Before Change Arrives. "WhiteLine" is produced by the Wu Shuo team, moving from crypto to a broader capital market, focusing on trends and changes in the AI era. In this episode, white-line streamer Minta discusses a question: After the Kimi K3 opens model weighting, will AI become a "free business"? According to the official API price, the Kimi K3 is about 40% to 70% cheaper than some leading US closed-source models. But what companies really need to calculate is not the price per million tokens, but the total cost of completing a task, including token consumption, success rate, number of retries attempts, and manual takeover rate. This episode further breaks down the division of inference, commercial licenses, open and closed-source models, and the semiconductor demand that open-source models may bring. The core conclusion is: model weighting can be free, but reasoning and scaled distribution are not. The ones truly capable of billing for the next trillion tokens may be infrastructure providers who control GPUs, cloud platforms, and inference entry points. Here is a summary of this episode's video text: 1. Cheap API does not mean lower task costs. Kimi K3 costs $3 per million input tokens and $15 output tokens, about 40% to 70% lower than some leading US models. But after long thinking,