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If one day Japan starts large-scale selling of dollar assets and U.S. Treasury bonds to stabilize the yen, it might mean that the long cycle of the U.S. capital market, supported by the dollar's circulation over the past decades, is coming to an end.
The problem is, the U.S. does not want this cycle to end prematurely.
High debt, industrial hollowing out, fiscal deficits, and social conflicts all require new macro narratives to digest and adjust. In the past, it was the internet; then globalization; now it is artificial intelligence, robotics, the space industry, and a new wave of technological revolution.
In a sense, the continuous new highs in the U.S. stock market and the amplified AI concept are not just capital frenzy but also a projection of future growth expectations during the U.S. economic structural adjustment.
Because of this, whenever Japan discusses foreign exchange intervention, the Japanese Ministry of Finance repeatedly emphasizes that intervention actions are communicated and coordinated with the U.S.
Both institutions and governments are walking on stilts, competing under the massive debt system to see who can reach the end of the grand narrative and who will fall midway.
The key turning point in the China-U.S. game also lies in confidence in the financial markets.Crying again.
Recently, BTC has been hovering around 60k, and the group chat is full of "this cycle is over" and "institutions have all fled."
The sentiment is real. The accounts look bad too.
MicroStrategy just sold over 1,600 BTC again, exchanging for about $100 million in cash to pay preferred stock dividends and buybacks. Sailor quickly clarified: I personally haven't sold a single satoshi; that was a company action.
Trump's media side is also continuously offloading, recently transferring out over 2,000 more coins, with a total of more than 7,000 sold, bought at high prices, so the accounts look bad now.
Even the most hardcore Bitcoin believers and the best storytellers are adjusting their positions.
Market sentiment naturally worsens.
But I'm increasingly feeling that the ones who should really panic aren't these.
Prices are the most deceptive.
What’s really happening is barely being discussed.
BNY Mellon is moving trillions of dollars worth of records onto the blockchain.
Tokenization of US Treasuries, stocks, and real assets is starting to scale.
AI Agents are beginning to hold coins themselves, call APIs, and settle transactions.
Stablecoins are gradually infiltrating real payments.
These things hardly help the coin price in the short term.
They don’t create get-rich-quick stories or FOMO.
But they are doing one thing: pushing crypto from a speculative toy toward a truly usable financial infrastructure.
In the past, whoever could tell the best story made money.
Now it’s increasingly about—who can get things running and survive long enough to get paid.
The bar is higher, and many will feel uncomfortable.
For the industry, this might not be a bad thing.
It might still feel rough in the short term. Macro hasn’t turned, sentiment hasn’t turned, whales are still adjusting positions.
But if you only stare at the candlestick charts and curse, you might miss what’s really changing.
Prices can deceive.
Infrastructure won’t.Bitcoin VS Ethereum, which is more profitable? Explained in 3 scenarios
Important risk reminder: Our country prohibits virtual currency trading speculation. Virtual currency prices can surge and plummet sharply and are not legally protected. The following is only objective data popularization and does not constitute investment advice.
BTC vs ETH comparison chart
1. Historical gains: Ethereum earns more in bull markets, Bitcoin is more resilient in bear markets
10-year long-term data (2015-2025)
Investing $10,000 and holding for 10 years: BTC increased 402 times, ETH increased 1195 times. Holding ETH at the long-term bottom yields multiples that crush BTC.
Bull market (2020-2021 major bull run)
BTC annual increase about 60%, ETH increase 399%; during the DeFi and NFT boom cycle, ETH's increase was 2 to 3 times that of BTC, showing very strong elasticity.
Bear market correction
ETH is more volatile: maximum bear market drop 82%, BTC maximum drop 78%; during major drops, funds prioritize buying BTC for hedging, BTC has smaller drawdowns and rebounds faster.
Volatility
ETH daily average volatility 4.2%, BTC only 3.1%; to earn excess returns, you must bear greater risk of floating losses. US and Japan Confirm Joint Forex Intervention: How Will Yen Fluctuations Affect the Crypto Market?
Recently, the global market has been focused on an important development:
The US and Japan have confirmed they will strengthen cooperation in the foreign exchange market and take joint intervention measures if necessary to stabilize exchange rates.
On the surface, this is a yen exchange rate issue.
But for global asset markets, what matters more is:
the yen’s volatility could influence capital flows and even change the trading logic of risk assets.
The crypto market cannot completely escape these global liquidity changes.
In recent years, the yen has been a key currency for global arbitrage trading.
Due to Japan’s long-term low interest rates, a large amount of capital chooses to borrow low-cost yen and reinvest in higher-yielding assets.
These capital flows include:
US stocks.
Emerging markets.
Bonds.
Even cryptocurrencies.
This model can drive risk assets higher during stable market periods.
But once the yen rapidly appreciates, arbitrage trades may reverse.
Investors need to sell risk assets and convert back to yen to repay funds.
This is why when the yen experiences sharp fluctuations, global markets often see significant turbulence.
For the crypto market, liquidity has always been a key factor affecting prices.
Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $62,000.
After BTC failed to break through $65,000, it entered a correction phase.
Although spot ETFs continue to attract institutional capital, short-term trends are still influenced by the macro environment.
If the US-Japan exchange rate stabilizes and market risk aversion decreases, capital may flow back into risk assets.
But if yen volatility expands further, triggering global deleveraging, Bitcoin could face pressure.
BTC key levels to watch:
Support: $60,000–$62,000 range.
Resistance: $65,000 level.
Ethereum is currently trading near $1,850.
Compared to BTC, ETH is more sensitive to liquidity changes.
Because Ethereum’s ecosystem—including RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi—requires active market capital.
If global capital starts reducing risk exposure, ETH may continue to face short-term pressure.
But if the market returns to a loose monetary expectation, ETH could become a capital inflow target.
Key support level: around $1,800.
SOL is currently fluctuating near $70.
Over the past year, Solana has attracted significant market attention due to low fees, high transaction speed, and the Meme ecosystem.
But SOL is also a typical high-volatility asset.
When market sentiment is optimistic, capital tends to chase SOL.
When global liquidity tightens, high-risk assets usually suffer greater impact.
However, the US-Japan joint forex intervention does not necessarily mean the market will turn pessimistic.
If Japan successfully stabilizes the exchange rate and reduces market concerns about financial risks, capital may seek new yield opportunities.
What really needs attention is:
does the yen continue to fluctuate significantly?
Does the dollar remain strong?
Do US Treasury yields change?
Is global arbitrage trading reversing?
My view:
The US-Japan confirmation of joint forex intervention essentially sends a signal:
the global market is refocusing on exchange rate risks.
In recent years, the market has been accustomed to low-cost capital driving risk assets higher.
But now, any sharp movement in major currencies can affect global capital allocation.
For the crypto market, the next phase of focus is no longer just on on-chain data and project narratives.
More importantly:
whether global capital is willing to continue taking on risk.
BTC support at $62,000.
ETH support at $1,800.
SOL support around $70.
If the forex market stabilizes and risk appetite recovers, the crypto market may welcome new capital opportunities.
But if arbitrage trading reverses and global capital reduces risk exposure, the market may still face pressure.
This round of the market is ultimately not about whose story is bigger.
It’s about who can secure sustained global capital inflows. $ETH #美日确认联合购汇 The US, Japan, and South Korea joining forces to stabilize their currencies essentially reflects concerns about severe fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, which could ultimately transmit to the US stock market through capital flows.
From the market perspective, the US stock market is currently at a critical juncture where the first phase of the AI narrative is gradually weakening, and the second phase narrative has not yet fully taken over.
The first phase relies on computing power, chips, and data centers to support valuations, while the market is awaiting the second phase stories such as autonomous driving, robotics, and AI applications to provide new growth expectations for high valuations.
The fact that it has held up until now is also due to continuous investment attraction and stimulation by retail investors, hoping to stabilize market expectations before the midterm elections.
In recent years, excessive investment has continuously pushed up capital market valuations. Once the yen or won experiences severe fluctuations, global leveraged funds may be forced to liquidate, thereby impacting the US stock market.
For this reason, every intervention by the US, Japan, and South Korea in the foreign exchange market requires repeated coordination, especially Japan, where large-scale currency actions often cannot proceed without communication with the US.
When global capital, exchange rates, and stock markets are deeply interconnected, stabilizing currencies is, in a sense, also stabilizing the entire risk asset market.
If Japan sells US bonds to stabilize the yen, both US bonds and US stocks will inevitably collapse.
There is nothing surprising about the US, Japan, and South Korea jointly intervening in the foreign exchange market.Let me share my view. The recent data released all show strong employment in the US and inflation remains resilient. From this perspective, the probability of a rate hike in September is actually low. The US data is released based on their demand, and the crypto market is also repeatedly verifying this point. When it drops to a key level, it violently rebounds, giving a sense of bottoming. But at the same time, I think this is the last bounce. The 68000 level, which I mentioned repeatedly a long time ago, I still believe it will be reached first, and the timing is about right. Next, if it reaches the 68000-69000 range, it will take away the shorts' liquidity. Then, with the recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the US, it is very likely to go to a lower level. The 2x short position opened on the neighboring coin-based platform at 1875 has been held for more than two weeks, and I am still holding it. I choose to gamble on the upcoming market here. Let's encourage each other.🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, and the war premium has been completely drained
· Bassent: An agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz may be reached as soon as tomorrow
· Rubio: Negotiations have made progress; Iran's stance has softened, considering allowing Europe to clear mines in the strait
· WTI down 5% intraday, falling back to $74.66; European stocks Stoxx600 hit a new high for July
When oil crashes, the logic of "war = inflation = rate hikes" loosens. Half a month ago, the market feared that rising oil prices would push inflation up and force the Fed not to cut rates; now, this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets are collectively breathing a sigh of relief—FANG +6%, Intel +10%.
The only one still pretending to sleep is crypto. $BTC stubbornly clings to 64K, not following risk assets when they rise, but falling when they fall. This "falling with the market but not rising with it" divergence is the signal to watch now—the narrative favors the bulls, but the price hasn't caught on.
Don't rush to translate macro tailwinds into buying reasons. Wait for BTC to find its own direction before deciding whether to follow. Let's watch and see 🧊US and Japan Confirm Joint Forex Intervention: How Will Yen Fluctuations Affect the Crypto Market?
Recently, the global market has been focused on an important development:
The US and Japan have confirmed they will strengthen cooperation in the foreign exchange market and take joint intervention measures if necessary to stabilize exchange rates.
On the surface, this is a yen exchange rate issue.
But for global asset markets, what matters more is:
the yen’s volatility could influence capital flows and even change the trading logic of risk assets.
The crypto market cannot completely escape these global liquidity changes.
In recent years, the yen has been a key currency for global arbitrage trading.
Due to Japan’s long-term low interest rates, a large amount of capital chooses to borrow low-cost yen and reinvest in higher-yielding assets.
These capital flows include:
US stocks.
Emerging markets.
Bonds.
Even cryptocurrencies.
This model can drive risk assets higher during stable market periods.
But once the yen rapidly appreciates, arbitrage trades may reverse.
Investors need to sell risk assets and convert back to yen to repay funds.
This is why when the yen experiences sharp fluctuations, global markets often see significant turbulence.
For the crypto market, liquidity has always been a key factor affecting prices.
Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $62,000.
After BTC failed to break through $65,000, it entered a correction phase.
Although spot ETFs continue to attract institutional capital, short-term trends are still influenced by the macro environment.
If the US-Japan exchange rate stabilizes and market risk aversion decreases, capital may flow back into risk assets.
But if yen volatility expands further, triggering global deleveraging, Bitcoin could face pressure.
BTC key levels to watch:
Support: $60,000–$62,000 range.
Resistance: $65,000 level.
Ethereum is currently trading near $1,850.
Compared to BTC, ETH is more sensitive to liquidity changes.
Because Ethereum’s ecosystem—including RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi—requires active market capital.
If global capital starts reducing risk exposure, ETH may continue to face short-term pressure.
But if the market returns to a loose monetary expectation, ETH could become a capital inflow target.
Key support level: around $1,800.
SOL is currently fluctuating near $70.
Over the past year, Solana has attracted significant market attention due to low fees, high transaction speed, and the Meme ecosystem.
But SOL is also a typical high-volatility asset.
When market sentiment is optimistic, capital tends to chase SOL.
When global liquidity tightens, high-risk assets usually suffer greater impact.
However, the US-Japan joint forex intervention does not necessarily mean the market will turn pessimistic.
If Japan successfully stabilizes the exchange rate and reduces market concerns about financial risks, capital may seek new yield opportunities.
What really needs attention is:
does the yen continue to fluctuate significantly?
Does the dollar remain strong?
Do US Treasury yields change?
Is global arbitrage trading reversing?
My view:
The US-Japan confirmation of joint forex intervention essentially sends a signal:
the global market is refocusing on exchange rate risks.
In recent years, the market has been accustomed to low-cost capital driving risk assets higher.
But now, any sharp movement in major currencies can affect global capital allocation.
For the crypto market, the next phase of focus is no longer just on on-chain data and project narratives.
More importantly:
whether global capital is willing to continue taking on risk.
BTC support at $62,000.
ETH support at $1,800.
SOL support around $70.
If the forex market stabilizes and risk appetite recovers, the crypto market may welcome new capital opportunities.
But if arbitrage trading reverses and global capital reduces risk exposure, the market may still face pressure.
This round of the market is ultimately not about whose story is bigger.
It’s about who can secure sustained global capital inflows. $ETH #美日确认联合购汇 ISM manufacturing hits a four-year high, U.S. Treasury yields fall instead, what is the market trading?
A notable divergence has recently appeared in the U.S. market.
The latest ISM manufacturing data is strong, with the index rising to a near four-year high, indicating that the U.S. economy is not cooling as quickly as the market previously feared.
At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have not continued to rise; instead, they have fallen.
This has led the market to rethink:
With strong economic data, why is capital flowing into bonds?
The core behind this is that the market is repricing the Federal Reserve's future policy path.
For some time, the market has been trading around "rate cuts."
As U.S. inflation gradually declines, investors believe it is only a matter of time before the Fed ends the high interest rate cycle.
But the strong ISM manufacturing data has poured cold water on this view.
A manufacturing rebound means:
Business activity remains active.
Economic resilience still exists.
The U.S. has not entered a clear recession phase.
According to traditional logic, the stronger the economy, the less reason the Fed has to cut rates quickly, so Treasury yields should rise.
But this time, the market reaction is different.
The decline in Treasury yields suggests capital may be betting in another direction.
The market believes:
Even if the U.S. economy remains resilient, inflationary pressures may continue to ease, leaving room for future Fed rate cuts.
In other words, investors are focusing not on current economic data but on monetary policy over the next six months or longer.
This is the biggest recent market contradiction:
The economy is too weak, requiring rate cuts.
The economy is too strong, limiting rate cuts.
This shift has a very clear impact on the crypto market.
Because crypto assets have always been highly dependent on global liquidity.
When the market expects rates to fall:
Dollar funding costs decrease.
Institutional risk appetite increases.
Capital is more willing to enter high-volatility assets like BTC, ETH, SOL.
Past crypto rallies have been accompanied by improved liquidity conditions.
Currently, Bitcoin price is fluctuating around $62,000.
After BTC failed to break the $65,000 area, it entered a correction phase.
In the short term, bulls and bears are still waiting for new catalysts.
On one hand, spot ETFs continue to attract institutional attention.
On the other hand, macro uncertainty limits the speed of capital inflow.
BTC key focus:
Support below:
$60,000-$62,000 area.
Resistance above:
$65,000 level.
If Treasury yields continue to fall and market risk appetite rises, Bitcoin may retest resistance.
Ethereum is currently priced near $1,850.
ETH has been relatively weak recently.
Market focus has shifted from pure ecosystem growth to value capture ability.
RWA.
Stablecoins.
DeFi.
Layer 2.
Whether these areas can continue to generate real demand will determine ETH's future performance.
ETH key level:
Support near $1,800.
SOL is currently fluctuating around $70.
Compared to BTC and ETH, SOL is more sensitive to market sentiment.
Over the past year, Solana has attracted significant capital due to its Meme ecosystem, low fees, and on-chain transaction activity.
But the characteristic of high-beta assets is:
Fast gains when the market warms up.
Greater volatility when the market is cautious.
If capital flows back into risk assets in the future, SOL could still be a rotation target.
ISM manufacturing hits a four-year high, but Treasury yields fall, indicating:
The market no longer simply views economic strength or weakness.
What truly affects asset prices is future funding costs and liquidity direction.
For the crypto market, the focus going forward should be:
Federal Reserve policy changes.
U.S. inflation trends.
Dollar strength.
Treasury yields.
BTC support at $62,000.
ETH defense at $1,800.
SOL focus around $70.
If liquidity expectations continue to improve, the crypto market may see new opportunities.
But if inflation heats up again and the Fed maintains high rates longer than expected, risk assets will remain under pressure.
In the next phase, the core market competition is not about whose story is bigger.
It's about who can attract real capital inflows. $ETH #ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 A Bitcoin wallet that had been dormant for eight years suddenly woke up and moved 1020 BTC. Following this transaction on-chain, a cluster of related addresses totaling 28,555 BTC, worth about $1.8 billion, was uncovered.
This was revealed by on-chain investigator Specter on August 4. He initially noticed a small anomaly: an address that hadn’t moved since 2017 suddenly transferred out 1020 BTC, which at current prices is about $60 million. The sudden activity of such an old dormant wallet alone is enough to attract attention, but what’s more noteworthy is what happened next—the funds didn’t go to an exchange but were split and dispersed across multiple addresses, a typical layered transfer pattern on-chain.
Following this trail, Specter linked these addresses to an even earlier batch, eventually piecing together a wallet cluster holding about 28,555 BTC. The source of these addresses points to the previously publicly traced Qian Zhiming case by UK law enforcement.
The name Qian Zhiming might ring a bell for some. Between 2014 and 2017, she conducted large-scale investment fraud in China, with over 128,000 victims reported publicly. A significant portion of the stolen funds was later converted into Bitcoin and moved abroad. UK authorities tracked the flow of funds and eventually seized about 60,000 BTC through the London Metropolitan Police, marking the largest crypto asset seizure in UK history. In July 2021, the UK side performed an on-chain transfer of the seized coins, leaving identifiable address fingerprints on-chain.
This is why Specter could link a wallet that suddenly reactivated after eight years to an old case already in the judicial process—the blockchain ledger doesn’t just disappear.
However, one thing must be clarified: Specter himself clearly stated that based solely on on-chain evidence, it’s impossible to determine who exactly owns these wallets now. They might still be in the hands of the original group, might have been transferred to other custodians, or could already be under law enforcement surveillance. This recent transfer might itself be an action by law enforcement or bankruptcy administrators. On-chain data can prove "these addresses are related," but it can’t prove "who is typing on the keyboard."
What I find most interesting about this case is the time scale. Operations stopped in 2017, part of the assets were seized in 2021, and activity reappeared in 2026—nearly a decade apart. Those involved back then might have thought that as long as they didn’t move the coins and waited long enough, the coins would be safe. But the biggest difference between Bitcoin and cash is here: cash hidden in a wall is still cash when taken out ten years later; Bitcoin stored on-chain, if moved after ten years, is visible to analysts worldwide.
Moreover, analysis tools have advanced over these ten years. In 2017, no one could piece together such a large address cluster; now, several independent researchers can do it using public data. This means any historically problematic funds don’t become safer over time but become more transparent.
A few questions I’d like to hear your thoughts on: Regarding the transfer of these 1020 BTC, do you think it’s more likely the original owners testing the waters themselves, or a routine action by law enforcement/custodians? If it’s the former, what do you think they aim to achieve knowing they will be tracked? Also, would you care about the "tainted" history of a Bitcoin you hold, or do you believe on-chain assets shouldn’t have identity distinctions?
Let’s discuss in the comments. #The Fed paused rates, but Bitcoin still lacks a real bullish catalyst.
Weak US spot demand
Low Open Interest
Rising exchange reserves
A pause isn't a pivot. $BTC needs stronger liquidity to break higher.POAP is shutting down. The project that gave you the "I was here" badge has been around for over five years, and today it officially announced it’s done.
The announcement was personally made by co-founder Isabel. Hundreds of communities, millions of digital collectibles, collaborations with Coinbase, American Express, Warner Music, Bayer—these names alone would look impressive in any BD report, yet the company has reached its end.
I’ll first share the reasons she gave verbatim, because this passage is more worth pondering than the outcome itself.
She said the crypto industry’s funding cycles and distribution models made it very difficult for the project to build a sustainable business model without sacrificing its core values. Another more painful point: the entire thing was built on a rapidly changing and relatively fragile technical infrastructure, which itself increased the difficulty of long-term development.
To translate roughly: money could be raised, but the pace of funding forced you to do things you shouldn’t; users could come, but the way they came meant they wouldn’t stay; the technology could run, but the foundation beneath you was replaced with new cement every year.
There were signs early on. On March 16 this year, POAP put the platform into maintenance mode—new issuers couldn’t access the issuance interface, existing users could still use current tools, the API kept running, but active development was explicitly stopped. Many thought it was just cost-cutting then; now it looks like that was the start of the countdown.
Isabel left three lessons, which I find more practical than many startup post-mortems.
First, the user community is a company’s most underestimated asset. Second, connecting people remains the core value. Third, long-term accumulation and brand trust will become important moats in the future.
The interesting part is that all three focus entirely on "people"—not a single word about tokens, valuations, or TVL. Someone who worked on on-chain credentials for five years ended up concluding something almost unrelated to blockchain.
I still have dozens of POAPs in my wallet. Some were scanned at offline meetups, some earned by staying up late for AMAs, and a few I’ve completely forgotten what they were for. How much are they worth? Basically nothing. But they do record where I really went and who I stood in the same room with over these years.
This was the original problem POAP wanted to solve: you can’t prove on-chain that you were at an event, so I’ll give you a badge. It succeeded in doing that, but it didn’t succeed as a business.
On the same day, another piece of news: Hashdex announced the closure of its Bitcoin ETF, managing $14.7 million, with the last trading day on August 17. The reasons were well articulated: scale, liquidity, operating costs, investor interest, product line positioning. Looking at these two together—one an idealistic community tool, the other a standardized financial product—the reasons for exit are surprisingly similar—no one used them, and they couldn’t sustain themselves.
In a bear market, the first to die are never scam projects—scammers run away faster than anyone. The first to die are those teams who seriously tried but whose business models didn’t work out. POAP belongs to the latter.
Isabel said she hasn’t decided her next step yet but revealed she’s thinking about one thing: how market entry strategies will change in the AI era.
I read that sentence twice. Someone who’s been in Web3 for five years ends by turning their gaze to AI. You can call it a pivot or an honest judgment.
I want to ask you a few questions.
Do you still have POAPs in your wallet? Do you remember which event you got them from?
If a project served hundreds of communities and issued millions of credentials but still couldn’t survive, is the problem with the product or with the industry’s limited options for projects?
And a more practical question: what will happen to these already minted badges? The contracts are still on-chain and theoretically never disappear, but without frontends, maintenance, or indexing services, how much value is left in the phrase "permanently preserved"?
We always say on-chain data is immutable. But if all the access points to read it are shut down, does that immutability still matter?BIG DAY FOR $SPCX TODAY
SpaceX reports its first ever earnings tonight.
34% of its shares are already shorted going in. Traders have built $24.6 billion of short positions in the weeks since the IPO, more than Tesla's $21 billion that took over 15 years to accumulate.
But the bigger issue is what happens two days later.
On August 6, up to 20% of the company, around 911 million shares held by insiders, becomes eligible to sell.
That lands on a stock that has already lost $1.2 trillion in market cap since its June IPO and trades 46% below its high of $225.64.
What investors are watching tonight:
AI capacity.
SpaceX is expected to build 2 GW this year. Google and Anthropic account for 35% of it.
Both could eventually move back to their own data centres, and SpaceX still needs buyers for the remaining 65%.
Starship.
Flight 13 deployed satellites and restarted its engine in space, but came down in the ocean far from the launch site.
Recovery at the pad is what makes reuse possible, and reuse is the whole cost argument.
Starlink.
Whether SpaceX partners with existing mobile carriers or builds its own network. Building one is expensive and puts it in direct competition with the big carriers.
Strong results could bring in enough buyers to absorb the unlock.
Weak results land on a stock that is already heavily shorted.
$SPCX Most people are obsessed with price targets.
I'm more interested in market structure.
Everyone asks whether Bitcoin can reach $170K.
Very few ask what has to happen before that becomes possible.
Looking back over more than a decade, every major $BTC cycle has respected progressively flatter trend angles.
That's not random.
It's what happens as markets mature.
If history continues to rhyme, a longer correction may be exactly what Bitcoin needs before the next major expansion begins.
Ironically, the scenario that feels the most painful today could create the biggest opportunity tomorrow.
Markets don't reward impatience.
They reward those willing to survive the reset.
Do you think this cycle needs more time... or has the next bull market already begun?SanDisk Earnings Night: High Expectations Are the Biggest Variable
$SNDK will announce its fiscal 2026 Q4 and full-year results at 04:30 Beijing time on August 6. What the market really wants to see is not just the profit figures, but also the guidance for the next quarter and whether the NAND price cycle can continue.
At the time of writing, the contract price is 1428.14, having risen from 1277.64 to 1428.14 in 24 hours, an intraday increase of about 11.78%, with a high point reaching 1433.52. The strength before the earnings report indicates that capital is already trading on optimistic expectations.
The key to this type of earnings-driven market movement is the expectation gap. Earnings growth does not necessarily mean a price increase; if revenue, gross margin, or guidance only meet expectations, the chips that were bet on in advance may also be cashed out.
Focus on three key points: demand for data center and enterprise storage, NAND price and supply-demand outlook, and management’s guidance on next quarter’s revenue and profit margin. The investor day on August 13 will also be an important window for subsequent expectations.
For a high-expectation earnings report, are you more concerned about the upside surprise or the volatility caused by guidance misses? In the early morning while monitoring the market, I came across a data point: the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is now 56.9%.
It's not a rate cut, but a rate hike, and it's more than half likely.
If this number had appeared six months ago, it would most likely have been dismissed as a software error by market platforms. For the past two years, the prevailing narrative has always been about when rates would be cut, by how much, and how risk assets would behave afterward. Now the market has reversed direction, with rate hikes becoming the baseline scenario.
The direct trigger for this shift was a hint dropped by a group of reporters known as the Fed's mouthpieces. Their message was that Basent's policy reaction function is changing and is no longer so dovish. In plain terms, the previous assumption that he would lean towards easing has been removed. Once pricing loses its anchor, it swings sharply to the other side, and 56.9% is the result of that swing.
Interestingly, the crypto market's reaction to this has been unusually quiet.
Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to 36%. This means the options market does not expect a significant directional move soon; traders are shrinking their exposure rather than betting on direction. At the same time, funding rates on mainstream centralized exchanges and on-chain perpetuals are generally bearish, with short crowding increasing.
On one hand, there is a major macro-level repricing; on the other, the crypto market shows low volatility with a bearish bias in positions. Putting these two together feels quite awkward to me.
Based on past experience, such a level of macro repricing usually causes risk assets to shake violently first. This time, the shakeout has been suppressed. There are several possible explanations: one is that spot ETFs and institutional holdings have changed the chip structure, diluting volatility; another is that the market already digested a round earlier and is now just waiting for confirmation; a more straightforward explanation is that liquidity itself is thinning, with fewer participants, so volatility naturally doesn't emerge.
Several other things are happening simultaneously in the same market. The S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high, and U.S. stocks are rotating from the AI sector to traditional sectors. Bernstein's view is that Texas pausing approval of data center projects connecting to the state grid has limited impact on most Bitcoin miners because their power capacity contracts have already been approved. Instead, projects that already have power resources see their value increase in this round of review.
So the picture is very divided. Traditional markets are hitting new highs, miner fundamentals are being revalued, interest rate expectations are turning hawkish, while crypto spot volatility is compressed to a low range.
I don't know how long this state can last. After implied volatility stays low for a long time, it usually doesn't end gently, but no one can predict which direction it will go, and I don't intend to guess.
I'd rather hear your thoughts on these questions.
If there really is a rate hike in September, do you think the crypto market will follow the U.S. stock market, or will it chart its own course like it did a few times this year?
When funding rates are bearish, do you treat that as a contrarian indicator or as trend confirmation? Both interpretations have caused losses over the past year.
And a more fundamental question: is your current position structure built for a rate cut cycle, or have you already adjusted? If not adjusted yet, which signal are you waiting for before making a move?
Let's discuss in the comments; I want to see where everyone's disagreements lie. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 The Fed paused rates, but Bitcoin still lacks a real bullish catalyst.
Weak US spot demand
Low Open Interest
Rising exchange reserves
A pause isn't a pivot. $BTC needs stronger liquidity to break higher.Next key date to watch for $BTC is the 14th of August.
We’re heading into a window that has produced some of the more meaningful directional shifts. Around this date $BTC has printed a negative reaction 8/10 times.
The most recent one was the outlier where it pumped roughly 6% off it.
So observing the narrative (whether it be bearish or bullish) is going to be key going into this particular period. If we are dumping > look for longs, if pumping > look for shorts. Inverse the narrative.
So theoretically speaking, a test of $60K is not unlikely. Matter of fact, its quite likely...The Solana Foundation has simultaneously posted five executive positions, none related to Meme
On August 3rd, the Solana Foundation posted five senior positions on the recruitment platform Ashby: Head of Stablecoins, Head of AI Ecosystem, Head of Institutional Growth for Greater China, Head of Institutional Growth for Japan, and Head of DeFi Growth. All five positions are under the growth team responsible for liaising with enterprises, financial institutions, and regulators. Yet, over the past two years, what has actually sustained Solana chain's activity has been Meme.
What concerns me more is a sentence in the job description for the Head of Stablecoins position, stating that the mission is to achieve leapfrog, breakthrough growth—not natural growth or marginal growth. A nonprofit foundation registered in Zug, Switzerland, writing a job posting in the tone of a sales team, that in itself says a lot.
If you want to know what an organization is truly anxious about, looking at its roadmap is less telling than seeing who it is hiring.
So let's look at the data. According to the Solana Q2 holder report released by Blockworks, the real economic value on-chain this quarter was $51 million, down 43% quarter-over-quarter: $18.6 million in April, $18.1 million in May, and $14.3 million in June, declining month by month. Application layer revenue was $228.4 million, down 31% quarter-over-quarter, the lowest quarter since Q1 2024. By single-chain quarterly revenue share, Solana ranked fourth with 12%, preceded by Hyperliquid at $141.4 million, Tron at $89.8 million, and Ethereum at $63.3 million. In Q1, its share was still 18%.
The composition of revenue is even more worth pondering than the total amount. The top application by revenue in Q2 was Pump.fun, with $90.1 million, accounting for 39% of all application revenue. The report also noted that Pump.fun's share hit a record high because the rest of the market shrank faster. The launchpad category's total revenue was $63.9 million, with Pump.fun alone accounting for 97%.
But in the same quarter, another set of numbers was rising. Solana's tokenized asset trading volume hit a historic high of $5.8 billion, up 114% quarter-over-quarter, with tokenized stocks at $4.8 billion—more than four times the $1.1 billion in Q1. Growth was concentrated at the end of the quarter, with $3.3 billion in June alone. Approximately 97% of all tokenized stock trading on-chain occurred on Solana. June's total on-chain DEX volume rebounded 26% quarter-over-quarter. Blockworks specifically pointed out that tokenized assets, not Meme, drove this rebound.
The institutional side is also moving. Among 29 globally systemically important banks, 7 have launched Solana-related services: JPMorgan Chase is doing tokenization and securities settlement, BNY Mellon handles SOL custody and USDC minting/redemption, Morgan Stanley offers custody, spot trading, and lending, Société Générale issued stablecoins, and State Street manages money market funds. In Q2, SOL spot ETPs saw net inflows of $120 million, while Bitcoin spot ETPs had net outflows of $3.7 billion and Ethereum net outflows of $500 million.
The contradiction lies here. Trading volume is rising, institutions are entering, but revenue has dropped 43%. The answer is hidden in the revenue ranking: the top five are Pump.fun, trading card market Collector Crypt, Pacifica, Jupiter, and wallet Phantom. None of the tokenized stock applications related to the $4.8 billion trading volume made it into the list. The reason is that most of these trades are handled by professional market makers' proprietary AMMs, which earn from spreads and charge fees far lower than the priority fees and tips in Meme trading.
In short, large trading volume but hard to monetize.
Looking back at those five positions, the logic becomes clear: they are all about finding a monetizable form for non-speculative demand. Stablecoins are the first to move; at the end of Q2, Solana's on-chain stablecoin supply was $16.3 billion, up only 2% quarter-over-quarter, with transfer volume at $1.5 trillion, down 29%. In the same period, Ethereum carried about $154 billion, and Tron about $90 billion, an order of magnitude difference. The Head of DeFi Growth covers the latter half; money sitting idle in wallets generates no revenue, only when it flows into lending and market making does billing start. The two Asia positions correspond to sources of volume; the 7 banks have only opened the door, but someone needs to be stationed long-term in Tokyo and Hong Kong to negotiate with regulators and expand the channel. The technical chips are also ready; the consensus layer upgrade Alpenglow is planned to launch around August with Agave v4.2, reducing transaction confirmation time to 150 milliseconds. The Head of AI Ecosystem looks like a trend-chasing role but is actually closest to revenue; Google Cloud and the Foundation jointly launched Pay.sh in Q2, a pay-as-you-go stablecoin channel for AI agents.
As of publication, the Foundation has not issued a public statement on the overall strategic intent of this batch of recruitment. The AI Ecosystem position has already stopped accepting applications on some aggregated recruitment sites; the actual status is subject to the official job page.
Whether this transformation will succeed, I think two indicators suffice: whether Pump.fun's revenue share will decline, and whether any project in tokenized stocks, stablecoin payments, or AI payments can break into the top five revenue list.
What do you think about this transformation? A chain that grew on Meme volume shifting to institutions and stablecoins—is it a natural progression or a forced landing? If Pump.fun's share remains around 40%, how much can these five hires really change? Feel free to discuss in the comments.
The above content is compiled from public information and does not constitute any investment advice. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 People are still relatively pessimistic about the Clarity Act because today's Senate agenda did not mention any discussion of the bill. However, the absence from the agenda does not 100% mean it cannot pass.
The biggest progress for the Clarity Act today is that the U.S. Blockchain Protocol has refuted the NSA (National Sheriffs' Association of the United States).
The specific refutation details are not necessary to focus on, but this means the battle over the Clarity Act is still active. In other words, the possibility of the bill passing is still alive.
As I mentioned in yesterday's tweet, although the Senate agenda does not show the bill, it does not mean that both parties in Congress will not negotiate and discuss this matter. So far, Republican supporters can still communicate with seven opposing Democratic senators. Whether it's a trade of interests or promises of other things, there is room and space for negotiation.
Of course, today remains a critical point. By the evening of August 4 U.S. time (morning of August 5 Beijing time), if there is no substantial breakthrough regarding the Clarity Act, such as Senate procedural actions on the bill, the likelihood of the bill passing on August 7 will greatly decrease.
If the probability of passing before August 7 is currently 50%, by tomorrow afternoon, this probability may drop to 30% or even lower.
In plain terms, don't be quick to despair now because the truly disappointing phase has not yet arrived, and August 7 this week is the official date when everyone can "give up hope"! #CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 A total of 1.57 million bitcoins have been lost through self-custody, and 1.51 million through exchanges, with the two numbers almost identical.
This is a set of custody security data released by Willy Woo. After reading it, Zhao Changpeng immediately responded: From a statistical perspective, storing cryptocurrency on exchanges is safer than self-custody.
Saying this this week is quite a delicate timing. In the same week, Coldcard wallet suffered an attack, with 1,596 BTC confirmed stolen, resulting in losses exceeding 100 million dollars. Hardware wallets, managing your own private keys, cold storage—these security basics that are often repeated were just punctured by reality at this critical moment.
However, Zhao Changpeng also added a few remarks that I think are more worth pondering than the conclusion itself.
He said that hacker data from exchanges is easier to collect because when something happens, it makes headlines and the whole world knows. On the self-custody side, losses, scams, mnemonic phrases written on paper that got ruined, or people passing away with passwords lost—most of these cases are never reported, and no statistical standards can capture them. In other words, the 1.57 million figure is likely a seriously underestimated lower bound, while the 1.51 million on the exchange side is almost fully exposed to the light.
He also mentioned that a large portion of the 1.51 million on exchanges comes from platforms that have already shut down. Historical burdens like Mt. Gox still hang over the entire industry’s accounts today. Platforms like Binance that are still active have always fully compensated users after hacks.
So what does this data actually indicate?
My own understanding is that it may not indicate which method is safer, but rather that the two types of risks are completely different.
Exchange risk is centralized, counterparty-based, and beyond your control. If the platform has issues, accounts get frozen, or insiders act maliciously, you can only watch the news and do nothing. But there is also a possibility of a safety net—someone compensates you, there is customer service, and legal avenues to pursue.
Self-custody risk is decentralized, operational, and entirely on you. If you lose your mnemonic phrase, no one can help you recover it; if you sign a wrong transaction, there is no undo button; phishing sites trick you into authorizing once and it’s over. It gives you absolute control, but the cost is absolute responsibility.
Zhao Changpeng’s final remark was quite restrained: It’s not that one method is better; different methods have different risk characteristics, suit different people, and a balanced approach might be the most prudent.
The word "balanced" sounds light but is hard to break down for individuals. How much do you keep on exchanges for easy access, and how much do you keep in cold wallets for long-term holding? Is there a standard answer for this ratio?
I want to ask you a few questions.
After the Coldcard incident, have you really rechecked your mnemonic backups, or did you just think about doing it later and never got around to it?
If you had to split your coins into two parts now, one on exchanges and one in self-custody, how would you divide them? Fifty-fifty, or ninety-ten?
And a more painful question: Suppose something suddenly happens to you tomorrow, would your family be able to access the self-custodied portion of your assets?
Let’s discuss in the comments. I’m really curious how you handle this.BICO/USDT Price Prediction 🚀
Biconomy ($BICO) is exploding with massive momentum, surging to $BICO 0.02055 (+22.10%) after touching a 24h high of $BICO 0.02170! 📈🔥
Bullish Target: If bulls clear resistance at $0.02170, look for a continuation push toward $0.02450 - $0.02700! 🐂💥
Key Support: Strong short-term support is now trailing at $0.01538 (MA5) down to $0.01379 (MA10). 🛡️
Huge volume surge driving a major breakout off local lows—watch for consolidation above $0.020 to fuel the next leg up! 📈💎Next week may not be a week that decides the direction, but it is very likely to be a week that determines expectations.
The market is about to face multiple key events.
SpaceX's first earnings report after going public.
The first large-scale lock-up expiration after listing.
Leading AI companies successively releasing their latest earnings.
And the U.S. nonfarm payroll data.
Many people treat these as independent news items.
But from the perspective of capital, these events are all answering the same question — whether risk assets are still worth continuing to allocate.
If the tech giants' earnings continue to exceed expectations, it indicates that corporate profits can still support current valuations, and capital will be more willing to continue allocating to growth assets.
If the nonfarm data is too strong, the market may worry again about inflation pressure and monetary policy remaining tight, and expectations for rate cuts may cool down once more.
If employment data weakens significantly, it may trigger market concerns about economic slowdown, and risk appetite will also be affected.
As for the lock-up expiration, what really needs to be observed is not the scale of the unlock, but whether capital chooses to cash out and exit afterward or continue to hold long-term.
These seemingly unrelated events ultimately reflect the same answer — whether capital's confidence in the future has changed.
Capital markets are never driven by news pushing prices, but by expectations driving capital, and capital driving prices.
Therefore, rather than guessing daily ups and downs, it is better to observe what new consensus the market forms after this week ends.
Is corporate profit continuing to validate the growth logic?
Or is the macro environment once again dominating market sentiment?
Or is incremental capital beginning to flow in new directions?
These questions are far more worth paying attention to than one or two candlesticks.
What truly changes the market is never a single piece of news, but multiple events collectively changing market expectations. When capital begins to form a new consensus, a new trend often begins. $BTC#SPCX's first earnings report will be released, and a hundred-billion-dollar lock-up expiration is imminent.$$SPCX 🚨 Is the market overlooking this Bitcoin signal?
Back in 2022, Strategy sold 704 BTC. At the time, many dismissed it as insignificant.
In the months that followed, Bitcoin went on to decline sharply. That doesn't mean the sale caused the move—but it became part of a much bigger story.
Now, Strategy has disclosed another sale—this time 1,638 BTC, more than double the amount sold in 2022.
The key point isn't the size of the transaction.
It's that the company has demonstrated it's willing to sell Bitcoin when circumstances require it.
That matters because it changes how investors think about downside risk.
If market conditions become more challenging, future sales may no longer be viewed as unthinkable.
One potential scenario looks like this:
📉 BTC weakens → 📉 Strategy's equity comes under pressure → 💰 Raising capital becomes more difficult → 🪙 Selling Bitcoin becomes a more realistic option.
This isn't a prediction, and it doesn't mean history will repeat itself. But it's a dynamic worth watching as part of the broader market picture.
Do you think investors are underestimating this risk, or is the market already pricing it in?
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 🚨 Next week's earnings could set the tone for both AI and crypto markets—but one report may carry outsized significance.
📅 Companies to watch: 📊 Palantir ⚡ AMD 🚀 SpaceX 🪙 Circle
Palantir, AMD, and SpaceX are expected to provide fresh insight into AI demand, enterprise spending, and infrastructure investment. With much of the AI optimism already reflected in valuations, it may take meaningful surprises to drive the next major move.
Circle, however, could tell a different story.
Recent crypto earnings have painted a mixed picture, with signs of softer trading activity across parts of the industry. That raises an important question:
Is institutional capital leaving crypto—or simply waiting on the sidelines?
Circle's earnings, particularly updates on USDC circulation, reserve balances, and adoption, could offer one of the clearest signals yet.
🟢 If USDC supply continues to expand: it may indicate institutions are still deploying capital through regulated stablecoin infrastructure.
🔴 If USDC supply contracts: it could suggest liquidity is leaving the crypto ecosystem rather than merely rotating between assets.
For crypto investors, stablecoin data is often one of the best real-time indicators of market liquidity and institutional participation.
Bottom line: AI earnings will help gauge the strength of the technology sector, while Circle's results may reveal where crypto capital is headed next.
Which report do you think will have the biggest impact on market sentiment?
$BTC $ETH $BEAT
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Massive smart money distribution in progress as a tagged whale executes a complete exit on $LDO !
Three distinct transactions routed 1.438M $LDO out through 0x MainnetSettler in a single hour, unwinding a position built just two weeks ago across 1inch, Kyber, and 0x.
The wallet has officially purged $LDO from its top portfolio allocations, signaling a decisive shift in sentiment. Why is monitoring on-chain liquidity flows your ultimate edge in these markets?
Because tracking large-scale DEX exits gives you real-time insight into whale behavior before the chart reacts.
Are you managing your risk accordingly?$BEAT Trade Review: The Cost of Entering Too Early
A few days ago, I shorted $BEAT , entering at 4.1172 and closing at 3.0391 for a gain of more than 100U.
The mistake happened immediately afterward.
Instead of taking time to reassess, I flipped long at 3.1334. Today, price is trading around 2.87.
The position is now sitting at roughly -82% unrealized, with a floating loss of about 25U on 28U of margin. That's a meaningful loss.
Looking back at the 15-minute chart, the error is clear.
After falling from 3.55, the market offered almost no convincing sign of a reversal. Buying at 3.13 was an attempt to catch a falling knife—hoping momentum would suddenly reverse without any confirmation.
The issue wasn't the chart.
It was my mindset.
I had just closed a profitable short and immediately felt the urge to capture the rebound. Instead of waiting for the market to prove a bottom, I let the emotions from the previous winning trade influence my next decision.
My plan:
No averaging down.
No emotional holding.
2.70 is my line in the sand. A decisive break with strong volume, and I'll exit.
If price recovers toward 3.00, I'll also look to reduce or close the position.
No turning this into a long-term hope trade.
Watching other setups:
$PUMPcontinues to look constructive. The daily chart is breaking out on rising volume and approaching resistance near 0.0022. That said, meme coins can reverse just as quickly as they rally, so I'm staying patient rather than chasing momentum.
$UB is also improving, with a clean V-shaped recovery and the MACD moving above the zero line. 0.16 remains the key support level. I'll only consider an entry after a healthy pullback that successfully holds above it.
Final takeaway
This wasn't a failure of technical analysis.
It was a failure of patience.
I closed one successful trade, became eager for the next opportunity, and entered before the market confirmed a reversal.
The 25U loss hurts, but I see it as tuition—a reminder that timing and discipline matter just as much as finding the right direction.
#BigTechEarningsWatch #BigTechEarningsWatch The reduction in $ETH staking rewards is definitely positive for the coin's price itself, but facing a large outflow of staked funds will certainly create short-term selling pressure. Staked tokens $LDO and $ETHFI have already fallen as a precaution. Meanwhile, aave and ena, which rely on ETH staking rates, have not dropped yet. I believe they will follow soon; it's just a matter of time. After all, lending yields and arbitrage staking trades fundamentally still depend on ETH staking rewards to generate profits. The reason ETH hasn't dropped yet is that large funds need to unstake to withdraw. The funding rate is no longer profitable, and ETH's biggest black swan event is probably coming soon. bmnr has become a sacrificial lamb again; after deceiving others for so long, it has also deceived itself, tomlee. I maintain my previous view: 1350 is the sweet spot for ETH. For ETH bought around 1600, consider taking partial profits and then re-entering later. There hasn't been an opportunity to open low-leverage long positions yet, so stay patient. You don't have to catch every single fluctuation.🟢 AI Morning Market Update: Infrastructure & Semiconductors Lead the Pre-Market Rally
AI infrastructure is back in focus before the opening bell.
Pre-market snapshot: • $QQQ : +0.9% to 706 • $SOXX: +3.9% to 528
While $PLTR continues to build on yesterday's earnings-driven momentum, up 14.5% pre-market at 144, the broader rotation is clearly shifting back toward AI infrastructure and semiconductors:
• $MRVL : +8.9% • $VRT: +5.3% • $SNDK: +5.3% • $AMD: +5.2% • $MU: +4.9% • $ARM: +4.8%
The move is being supported by several key developments:
• Reuters: The Trump administration is reportedly considering restrictions on new Chinese optical transceiver imports for U.S. data centers. • The Wall Street Journal: Banks are discussing a $15B data-center financing package for Anthropic backed by Google. • Financial Times: Google is said to be assembling an approximately $200B financing program for Anthropic, with more than $150B earmarked for TPUs and related AI infrastructure.
The market isn't simply extending yesterday's software rally—it's rotating back into the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem. If the reported trade restrictions move forward, non-Chinese optics and networking suppliers could benefit from stronger pricing power and market share. Meanwhile, continued investment in AI infrastructure reinforces demand for networking, memory, power, and cooling technologies.
The key level to watch after the open: if $SOXX gives back its gains while software regains leadership, today's move may prove to be little more than a pre-market squeeze. If semiconductor strength holds, it would reinforce the view that AI infrastructure remains the market's leadership theme.
Sources: Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and company filings.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Seeing the brothers who pump $SPCX by 5% before the earnings report and then shout "takeoff" really makes one laugh and cry. Do you only understand the color of the candlesticks but not the lock-up calendar?
Currently, 95% of SPCX chips are still held by insiders and employees, with only a pitiful 4-5% circulating. The current pump is purely due to low circulation and emotional speculation, having nothing to do with fundamentals. The Q2 earnings window is just a few days away, and the first batch of 20% locked shares (about 920 million shares) is about to unlock. If the stock price stays above 175.50, there is an additional 10% reward unlock. The current price is 121, not even back to the IPO price of 135. Although the unlocking condition for the extra 10% cannot be triggered, the 20% selling pressure is real.
What's even more ridiculous is that this is just the appetizer. From August to October, every two weeks 7% of the chips will be released, and after the Q3 earnings report, about 1.3 billion shares (28%) will unlock massively. On December 8, the 180-day lock-up will completely expire. By next June, Musk's 6.4 billion shares, nearly half of the company, will also enter the market. The supply-side pressure is continuous and huge, and what remains on the demand side besides "faith"?
The 30-day drop is -24.69%, the 90-day drop is nearly -25%, the trend is clear. This little pump before the earnings report is just giving shorts a better entry point. I continue to hold my short position, targeting double digits. When this batch of unlocked shares hits the market, those chasing highs now will know what "flying" means — but it's the kind of free fall downward.30-Year Treasury Yield at 5.27%: Peak or Just the Beginning?
It may sound extreme, but the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27%, its highest level in nearly two decades, while the Federal Reserve remains largely on the sidelines.
Not long ago, investors closely tracked every Fed signal for clues about the direction of markets. Today, the long end of the Treasury market appears to be finding its own equilibrium. Yields continue to rise, bond prices continue to fall, and long-duration bondholders have endured significant losses while facing the constant prospect of additional government debt issuance.
Many investors see these levels and immediately call for a generational buying opportunity. I'm not convinced.
The era of ultra-low yields was supported by three powerful forces: globalization, subdued inflation, and strong demand for U.S. debt. Today, all three are far less certain. With U.S. debt approaching $40 trillion, persistent fiscal deficits, and a growing supply of Treasuries, the market is being asked to absorb more debt without the same level of support from foreign buyers or the Federal Reserve.
From a crypto investor's perspective, the implications are straightforward. When the so-called risk-free rate offers more than 5%, capital naturally becomes more selective. Investors have less incentive to chase highly volatile assets when attractive yields are available elsewhere.
That dynamic helps explain why risk assets, including Bitcoin, often struggle to sustain major breakouts in a rising-yield environment. As long as long-term Treasury yields remain elevated or continue moving higher, the path for speculative assets is likely to be more challenging, with consolidation rather than a broad-based surge.
My view: it's still premature to declare a peak in long-term yields. Many investors see 5.3% and assume the move is over. I see a market still adjusting to a very different economic reality than the one that defined the last decade.
Just my perspective, not financial advice.
$BTC #DailyOrbit #BigTechEarningsWatch #FedSplitGoesPublic Brothers, SpaceX might be about to experience a real big move these days.
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
The biggest focus in the market right now isn't what Musk has posted, but that the shorts have been squeezed too hard. Data shows that the current short volume has reached $24.6 billion, about 219 million short shares, accounting for nearly 34% of the float.
With such a high short ratio, if the direction goes wrong, it can easily trigger a chain short squeeze.
There are two key events in the next two days.
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
📌 Earnings report will be released after market close on August 4, which will determine how the market views the company's growth potential.
📌 On August 6, shares will be unlocked, allowing early investors and insiders to start trading, bringing a test of the market's chip distribution.
Many think the unlocking will definitely crash the price, but the market often moves in the opposite direction. If the earnings report is impressive enough and the new selling pressure is smoothly absorbed by capital, those who shorted at high levels might be forced to buy back shares, pushing the price even higher.
The most classic scene in trading markets is when everyone is bearish, yet the stock price keeps rising.
Whether this round will be a negative realization from unlocking or a collective surrender of shorts depends on how the market chooses in the coming days. 🚨 The market looks like it's turning stronger... but don't mistake "optimism" for "trend confirmation."
Confidence is gradually returning, headlines are turning positive, and trader sentiment is starting to heat up again. But real, large-scale market moves usually happen after the market proves itself with a substantial breakout — not before.
📊 Intraday Market Watch
Overnight, global markets continued the risk-on tone overall:
🇺🇸 US stocks closed higher, led by continued strength in large tech stocks;
🌏 Asia-Pacific markets followed suit, with South Korea leading the region.
However, several core risks remain unresolved:
🇯🇵 Yen exchange rate volatility is still brewing;
⚡ Energy market trends remain unstable;
📑 Key US employment data is due later this week, which could reverse the current optimism at any time.
Market sentiment is indeed improving — but tough battles lie ahead.
🟠 BTC (Bitcoin)
BTC is currently testing the $64,000 resistance zone in real time.
📈 A clean and decisive breakout and hold above this level could ignite a new wave of upward momentum, improving overall altcoin market risk appetite.
📉 Conversely, if rejected, it will likely enter another accumulation phase, with $63,000 and $62,200 becoming key support levels to watch.
🔵 ETH (Ethereum)
ETH is noticeably weaker than BTC in this rebound, still lagging behind.
If the price can sustain above $1,650, it would be a positive signal to boost the broader altcoin market; until then, capital is expected to remain highly selective, with funds only willing to tilt toward higher certainty directions.
🟡 Altcoin Key Levels to Watch
• SOL needs to reclaim $80
• BNB needs to break above $600
• DOGE needs to hold above $0.071
👀 Next, focus on where the capital flows:
🐸 Meme sector: PEPE, WIF, BONK
🏦 DeFi sector: LINK, AAVE, UNI
🤖 AI track: WLD, TAO, KAITO
⚠️ Reminder: A warming sentiment does not mean you can aggressively leverage.
The first bullish candle is not a confirmation signal — it is often just bait. True trading wisdom is to wait for key resistance levels to be effectively broken and held before acting decisively.
Patience remains the most underestimated position in the market.
$BTC $ETH #DailyOrbitIf US tech stocks continue to rally with increased volume, then the lukewarm water for risk assets may be even hotter than many think. Do you smell that familiar sweetness? QQQ rose +1.76% in a single day, with three stocks among NVDA, TSLA, and MSFT rising over 2%. This is not an ordinary rebound; it is capital repricing the story of "the strong get stronger." The market's current actions are very honest: money doesn't hesitate, pushing straight into the most crowded tracks. When I watch the market, what I care about most is not the rise itself, but the psychological changes behind the rhythm. In recent weeks, everyone has been repeatedly probing, fearing recession, valuations, and the Fed's change of side. But today, this bullish candlestick seems to have gently overshadowed all those hesitations. When the leaders collectively hit new highs, funds instinctively believe that "not participating is the risk." Once this sentiment spreads, it can easily lead to a situation where the high level is dulled and the leader's premium continues to widen. However, I'm not here to call for orders. On the contrary, I'm more wary of two signals: - Can QQQ hold above the nearly 5-day high, rather than quickly pulling back after surging? - Will the trading volumes of NVDA, TSLA, and MSFT really expand in sync, or are they just pulling up with shrinking volume? If the price hits a new high but the volume can't keep up, that's a classic case of 'inflated fat.' In the short term, strong stocks are most likely to experience high-level divergence after stagnant rally on high volume, and those who chase at that time may be the last to catch the last blow. My understanding is: the market is not trading performance now, but "trend inertia." Everyone wanted to catch the safest train, so the car sped up faster and faster, but...Getting excited just because of a rebound? Don't rush, money is still flowing into AI, but the foundation of risk assets hasn't been solidly established. Look at the numbers below.
$BTC 63,933 +1.86% $ETH 1,871 +1.43%
$QQQ +1.76% $SPY +1.42% $IBIT +1.46%
$DXY -0.11% $GLD +0.05%
Crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz are still adding to inflation expectations, US Treasury yields and Fed expectations continue to suppress valuations, and the exchange rate line is unstable. $DXY is not just a background player; it can move the market at any time. But money ignores all this and is rushing into AI semiconductors, with $MU +11%, $SNDK +16.4% surging sharply, $QQQ carrying the Nasdaq, and institutions firmly holding onto hard tech.
Looking closely, there are tricks. $ETH is being left behind by $BTC; altcoin funds only recognize the big coin, and Ethereum's weakness shows the risk appetite hasn't truly warmed up. $IBIT's gains lag behind spot $BTC, ETF buying is weak, and this rebound hasn't deeply penetrated the spot market. $DXY eased slightly by -0.11%, giving risk assets a bit of breathing room; but $GLD +0.05% is still rising, safe-haven money hasn't fully withdrawn, and the market remains uneasy.
Whether the US stock market can hold up tonight is the real test. Whoever shows weakness first will set the tone for the next few days. Don't rush into heavy positions; wait and see clearly before making moves.
#ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌Let's first try writing a simple trade.
During a significant surge in ETH, for example, in the period shown in Figure 1 from May 1 to May 10, ETH rose from 2900 to 4100. But Bitcoin remained completely still; everyone was expecting BTC to catch up during a consolidation phase, so caution was needed.
There were also several factors: Bitcoin had already pulled back from the April 14 CB listing high of 64000, and the subsequent rebound was weak. More funds shifted to ETH, and at that time, the "zoo" was going crazy, with wild rallies everywhere. This was the best time to short BTC.
This is the same reasoning as when I closed my long BTC position at 66000 a few days ago. When ETH is stronger than BTC in the market, it's a warning sign.
Back to the timing of closing positions: I opened a hedge at 40,000, but unexpectedly, on May 19, there was another 30% crash. I gradually added long positions between 35500 and 32000. When Bitcoin's OK quarterly price dropped to 28800, the liquidation price had already fallen to 25000.AI, space, stablecoins—three cards revealed at once.
The most exciting thing in the market this week isn’t the ISM hitting a four-year high, nor the unusual drop in U.S. Treasury yields. The real headline is the earnings reports from AMD, SpaceX, and Circle landing almost back-to-back.
Three seemingly unrelated fields are actually intertwined.
On the AI side, AMD is both a direct beneficiary and a stress test.
Demand for data centers and AI accelerator cards is still surging, and the market’s expectations are very high. AMD’s earnings report isn’t just about revenue and profit; it’s about whether it can truly hold onto Nvidia’s market share and whether the next-generation products can ramp up on schedule. The biggest risk to the AI narrative now isn’t a drop in demand, but supply lagging behind, intensified competition, and margin compression. If the numbers fall short of expectations, the entire AI hardware chain will tremble.
In space, SpaceX is reporting earnings for the first time as a public company.
Starlink is already a solid cash cow, but the real cash burn is in AI and Starship. The market’s main concern now isn’t the number of launches, but whether Starlink’s profits can sustainably feed AI computing power and Starship development. SpaceX ties space and AI together in its story: orbital computing power, low-latency networks, and the future constellation economy. It sounds very appealing, but with the first public earnings, the numbers must live up to the story. Too much loss or too soft guidance will immediately trigger a revaluation.
On stablecoins, Circle is the underlying plumbing of the crypto world.
USDC circulation, on-chain transaction volume, and reserve yields are the real indicators of crypto market activity. Stablecoins aren’t just “digital dollars”; they are the settlement layer for exchanges, DeFi, and cross-border payments. Good numbers from Circle mean real on-chain demand remains; poor numbers indicate funds are exiting or shifting to other stablecoins. What the crypto market lacks most now isn’t narrative, but real liquidity that can sustain itself. Circle’s earnings report answers this question.
These three are actually telling the same story:
AI needs massive computing power and electricity; space provides new deployment space and networks for computing power; stablecoins provide on-chain settlement and capital efficiency.
One is hardware and algorithms, one is physical infrastructure, and one is the financial pipeline. With all three reporting simultaneously, the market will for the first time get a clearer picture of whether this "AI + space + crypto" crossover narrative is truly running or still just storytelling.
If the numbers hold up, risk appetite can surge again.
If not, the current optimism brought by easing oil prices will dissipate quickly.
AI, space, and stablecoins are no longer three independent tracks. This week’s earnings reports are the first public stress test for this new triangle. #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 With prices fluctuating back and forth, should you hold on or mostly do swing trading based on your mental endurance?
Since the geopolitical escalation in early July, the logic behind oil price volatility and the price trend so far have mostly matched Ni's predictions. #WTI
I also agree with the article's viewpoint. Let's first see how this break above 75 plays out; if it breaks below 72 or even lower with the trend, it's time to take profits. If it keeps tugging around 75, then continue holding.
Personally, although my $CL and $BZ positions are currently profitable, I still feel somewhat unsuccessful this time.
My last opening price for CL was 80.2, and for BZ it was 88.3.
Actually, the first time it broke 78, the account was already quite profitable, but I wanted to wait for a lower price, so I didn't exit. I was worried about holding for so long without catching a big move. I wondered if it would just go straight down? But I underestimated the back-and-forth between the US and Iran.
Then, with the news fluctuating, prices rose back above 88, and profits retreated, which made me regret a bit.
The second break of 79 was on the 3rd, and there was another swing opportunity, but I still didn't exit. As a result, today above 80, I ended up losing.
Today, with the news fully easing and expectations of the strait reopening, prices broke below 76.
This is the first time since July that the account has maximized profits (around 93 was the biggest loss, but luckily I was confident it would go down). Although I caught some gains, I still feel a bit regretful.
It also makes me reflect on a problem: price trends don't move like stairs going down steadily; they go down, down, rise, rise, then down again, rise again, down again...
This kind of back-and-forth is actually similar to other big markets like Bitcoin or US stocks.
But such swing trading really consumes a lot of energy and makes you afraid of missing out, requiring you to check the market from time to time. Holding on all the time is more worry-free, right?
I also want to catch more gains and do more swing trading, but sometimes a trader's mindset is very complicated.
Now we are hindsight critics, but thinking carefully, it's not really hindsight; it's the accumulation of trading experience that teaches you:
"The manipulative whales won't let prices keep rising without pullbacks, nor will they let prices keep falling without rebounds."
This truly requires a combination of awareness, strong mentality, skill, and patience in trading.
It's tough, really tough.
DYORThe July ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 55.6, far exceeding expectations and hitting a new high since May 2022. New orders, production, and employment all ignited across the board. By old logic, the bond market should have been smashed, and yields should have surged.
So what happened? The 10-year US Treasury yield actually dropped by five to six basis points that day, closing at 4.68%.
Stop pretending, the real boss is oil prices.
Over the weekend, Trump suddenly softened his stance, delaying action against Iran, causing Brent crude to plunge over 4% in one day. Inflation expectations instantly eased, and the bond market’s sensitivity to "oil prices dropping" far outweighs "manufacturing accelerating." No matter how strong the data is, it can’t compete with oil prices suddenly easing.
Manufacturing is indeed warming up, but don’t celebrate too soon. The real drivers are AI infrastructure, defense orders, and early stockpiling; traditional sectors are still barely alive. The price index fell from 73 to 71.1, which looks like a drop but is still alarmingly high. Supply chains remain bottlenecked, and cost pressures have not eased at all.
Actual impact:
Both stocks and bonds are celebrating wildly. All three major US stock indices closed higher, the Dow hit a new closing high, and the Nasdaq rose over 2%. Once oil prices fell, risk appetite immediately returned.
Rate hike expectations barely moved. Even with stronger manufacturing, it was offset by oil prices, so September rate hike pricing basically stayed flat.
Long-term yields fell, temporarily benefiting growth stocks and real estate, easing financing cost expectations.
But don’t be fooled by this excitement.
Economic resilience is real, but trading is completely hijacked by oil prices. Once oil prices rebound, or if employment and inflation get tougher later, the bond market can turn hostile at any time, and the script of stocks and bonds rising together will instantly fall apart.
Right now, the market isn’t really watching the ISM; it’s watching whether oil prices will drop again tonight. When oil prices ease, bonds ease; when oil prices rise, bonds get smashed. This wave looks like a return of risk appetite but is actually as fragile as thin ice. #ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 #ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌
The July ISM Manufacturing Index reached 55.6, 1.6 points higher than expected, marking the highest level since May 2022. New orders, production, and employment all strengthened across the board, which theoretically should have pressured the bond market and pushed yields higher.
However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by five to six basis points that day, closing near 4.68%.
The reason is simple: oil prices crashed first.
Over the weekend, Trump suddenly paused action against Iran, causing Brent crude to drop more than 4% in one day. Inflation expectations eased accordingly, and the bond market’s reaction to "oil prices falling" was much quicker than to "manufacturing acceleration."
Manufacturing is indeed recovering, but mainly supported by AI infrastructure, defense orders, and early stockpiling; traditional sectors remain weak. Although the price index fell from 73 to 71.1, it is still very high. Supply chain lead times continue to lengthen, and cost pressures have not disappeared.
The data looks good but contains some inflation.
What the market is really watching now is not the ISM, but whether oil prices can hold steady. When oil prices ease, bonds ease with them; if oil prices rise again, bonds can turn hostile at any time.
This wave of simultaneous stock and bond gains looks lively but is actually quite fragile. The crosshair held the target for the seventh second, and the wind direction changed. The entire U.S. market was fixated on the $57.2 million paper gap, roaring, but my scope bypassed the smoke and locked onto the deeper metal pile in the balance sheet—8,002 bitcoins, 981 more rounds of live ammo than the last battle.
American Bitcoin, the Trump family’s day-and-night roaring mining machine, delivered its third consecutive quarterly loss report in Q2: a net loss of $57.2 million, of which $71.2 million was a fair value impairment of crypto assets. A paper scratch, not a leaking magazine. Revenue was about $67 million, production hit a record 932 BTC, while reserves net increased by 981 coins—an increase roughly equal to output. They never opened a single magazine cover, pressing every bullet fired back into the vault intact. The paper floating loss is a camouflage net; the real arsenal expanded by 14% beneath the surface.
Those Wall Street observers accustomed to measuring angles with profit and loss statements only shout “short” at the red circles. The true ace never looks at the printed pattern on the enemy’s target but only at the direction of the barrel and the location of the ammo pile. This mining farm uses floating losses as bait to buy ambush time without selling a single bullet. Classic long-term stealth.
In the same week, Trump media cut the BTC treasury down to just pledged margin. One is loading bullets into the magazine, the other is dismantling the gun and leaving the field. The same chessboard, two sets of orders, opposite directions.
Wind direction southeast, wind speed 2.8 meters, adjusted by a quarter density point. The spot marked $XUSAR’s large linkage is just the muffled sound transmitted back to the ground after bullets tear through the air at supersonic speed.
In my eyes, there are no red numbers jumping on the reports. I see only one thing: 8,002 steel-core bullets, all loaded, safety off.AMD is submitting its report tonight, SpaceX is also submitting tonight, and Circle is the grand finale tomorrow—I’ve been watching the earnings dates of these three companies and laughing for a while, confirming one thing: some are going to receive scholarships, some are going to submit self-criticism reports, and some might be dropping out.
📊 First, the schedule: three earnings reports, three destinies
After market close on August 4: AMD + SpaceX competing on the same stage
AMD (AMD.O) expects revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year; adjusted EPS of $1.62, a staggering 237% increase year-over-year. Options market bets on a 10%-12.4% stock price volatility after earnings.
SpaceX (SPCX.O) expects revenue of $6.93 billion, adjusted loss per share of $0.26. Options market bets on 15% volatility, meaning a $225 billion market cap could instantly evaporate or balloon.
Before market open on August 5: Circle’s grand finale
Circle (CRCL.N) expects revenue between $717 million and $735 million, up 11% year-over-year; EPS between $0.16 and $0.19, compared to a loss of $0.43 last year. USDC circulation is $73.7 billion, down 4.6% quarter-over-quarter.
🔍 AMD: The top student submitting the exam, but the proctor has changed
If AMD’s report came out three months ago, the stock could have risen 20%. But the problem is—the AI sector has collectively crashed, and AMD itself has pulled back nearly 19% from its June high.
Data center business is expected at $6.5 billion, up 101% year-over-year. Server chips $4 billion, AI chips $2.5 billion. Client business $3 billion, up 20%; gaming business $781 million, down 30%.
The real focus isn’t whether revenue beats expectations—it’s the gross margin. AMD’s own guidance is a non-GAAP gross margin close to 56%. If it can’t hold 56%, it means it’s in a price war with Nvidia. If it exceeds that, that’s the real “AMD Yes.”
In the past 8 quarters, AMD beat expectations 7 times. But this time is different—beating expectations is no longer rare; what’s rare is that the stock can still rise after beating expectations.
🚀 SpaceX: The problem student submitting a self-criticism report, and will be watched by the whole school the day after tomorrow
SPCX has fallen from its IPO price of $150 to $114, and has more than halved from its all-time high of $225.64. Short positions total $24.6 billion, accounting for 34% of the float.
Revenue is expected at $6.93 billion, up significantly from $4.7 billion in Q1. Starlink revenue is expected at $3.82 billion, operating profit $1.42 billion. But the whole company is still losing money—EBIT expected at -$1.55 billion.
But that’s not the main point. The main point is August 6—911.5 million shares will be unlocked, equivalent to $100 billion market cap flooding the market. Currently, only 639 million shares are floating (5% of total shares), after unlocking it will double to 12%**.
No matter how bad the earnings are, the unlock can really crush the stock price.
💰 Circle: The crypto “money printer” submitting its work, but the machine seems to be stuck
Circle is the only one among the three turning a profit—last year lost $0.43, this year earning $0.19. Revenue $735 million, up 11% year-over-year.
But there’s a hidden risk: USDC circulation dropped from $77 billion to $73.7 billion, down 4.6%. For Circle, this is equivalent to the “money printer slowing down”—USDC circulation directly determines reserve income, and reserve income accounts for over 90% of Circle’s total revenue.
More painful is Morgan Stanley’s downgrade, cutting the target price by 64%. The stock price has fallen 21% this year, and just dropped 3.61% on Monday to close at $60.35.
💎 Horizontal comparison: who is the real winner?
Putting AMD, SPCX, and Circle next to the recent tech giant earnings reports, the picture is too beautiful to look at:
Amazon: Revenue $200.6 billion, AWS up 37%, market cap over $3 trillion—the top student got a full scholarship.
Microsoft: Revenue $90 billion, Azure up 43%, stock up 23% in three days—the top student got a national scholarship.
Google: Revenue $119.8 billion, cloud business the strongest ever, market cap surpasses Apple—the top student got the principal’s scholarship.
Apple: Revenue $109.4 billion, but guidance missed expectations, market cap evaporated $350 billion—the top student scored 95, parents ask “Why not 100?”
Tesla: Revenue $28.2 billion, but profit collapsed 57%, down 28% this year—the uneven student, perfect math but failing language.
AMD: Revenue $11.3 billion, up 47%, but AI sector collectively pulled back—the uneven student working hard to improve weaknesses.
SPCX: Revenue $6.9 billion, loss $1.55 billion, $100 billion unlock imminent—the repeating student, will be watched by the whole school the day after tomorrow.
Circle: Revenue $735 million, turned profitable, but USDC is shrinking—the transfer student, barely passing but suspected of cheating.
🎯 My operational advice
AMD: Watch the gross margin. Above 56% is good news, below is bad news. Don’t bet on earnings, wait for the numbers.
SPCX: Don’t touch. Earnings are a smokescreen, the $100 billion unlock on August 6 is the real bomb. Let shorts and insiders hit it first, then watch.
Circle: Watch USDC circulation. If Q2 continues to decline, no matter how good revenue looks—it means the money printer is slowing, and the stock won’t rise.
I’m the man who held from $10 to $17, then saw it drop from $17 to $5.5 and back to $17. Tonight AMD and SPCX submit reports simultaneously—one proving whether it’s worth a $100 billion market cap, the other proving why it’s worth a $1 trillion market cap.
Some are going to receive scholarships, some are going to submit self-criticism reports. Don’t pick the wrong side.
Follow me, I don’t teach you to bet on earnings, I teach you to wait for the results before choosing courses. Hit follow, next earnings season, at least someone will whisper in your ear— “Don’t rush to submit! First see what others wrote!”
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#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
@你的爱播Misa @皮神⚡ @Wolf.Win @赚够五千万收手 @可乐谈AI
$SPCX $MSFT Major international news!!! #From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's divisions are fully exposed The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, and the war premium has been drained in one go
· Bassent: An agreement with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz may be reached as soon as tomorrow
· Rubio: Negotiations have made progress; Iran's stance has softened, considering allowing Europe to enter the strait for mine clearance
· WTI down 5% intraday, falling back to $74.66; European stocks Stoxx600 hit a new high for July
When oil crashes, the logic of "war = inflation = rate hikes" loosens. Half a month ago, the market feared oil prices pushing inflation higher, forcing the Fed not to cut rates; now this downward catalyst is being dismantled one by one, and risk assets are collectively breathing a sigh of relief—Philadelphia Semiconductor +6%, Intel +10%.
The only one still pretending to sleep is crypto. $BTC stubbornly clings to 64K, not following risk assets up, but falling when they fall. This "falling with the market but not rising with it" divergence is the signal to watch now—the narrative favors the bulls, but the price hasn't caught on.
Don't rush to translate macro tailwinds into buying reasons. Wait for BTC to find its own direction before discussing whether to follow or not. Let's watch and see 🧊$DOGE Staring at the high-profile breakout of the July ISM Manufacturing Index in my left hand, the audience inevitably erupts in a gasp—55.6! The highest since May 2022, dancing in the expansion zone for seven consecutive months. Over at CME, there's even a 67.2% clear bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in September. Everyone is fixated on this colorful dove, firmly believing the hawkish noose is tightening.
But this is just a very standard "misdirection."
The real trick always happens in the shadows where the spotlight doesn't reach. While spectators' eyes are drawn to the strong fundamental data, the dealer's right hand has already completed a sleight of hand in the hole cards: the US and Iran are back at the negotiating table, crude oil prices plunge over 7% in a single day, 10-year US Treasury futures instantly jump 13 ticks, and the 30-year surges 22 ticks.
Got it? This is the most fascinating "visual illusion" in the fraud performance. On the surface, strong data is loudly shouting "rate hike," but the long-end yields go limp as if their bones were pulled out. When Bassett publicly calls on the Fed to inject liquidity into the yen, the dealer has quietly swapped the "tightening" prop box for a "stealth liquidity sprinkler."
Fundamentals are charging upward, while the flames of geopolitical crisis are dying down, with the 30-year Treasury yield hovering stubbornly around 5.3%. This is not market confusion at all, but a "double fake-out" arranged by the dealer during the shuffle—using short-term rate panic to cover long-term liquidity withdrawal and position building.
Reflected onto the token $XLLY, it is the mysterious reflector hidden above the stage. When traditional capital uses the smoke screen of crude oil's plunge to cover and secretly accumulate long bond futures, the price movement of $XLLY is merely an illusory reaction caused by retail investors' visual lag. Spectators are still obsessing over rate hike probabilities, while smart money has already switched chips and left the backstage.
The game has never been random; every jump and dip you see is a magic effect preset long before the stage curtain rises.
#ISMBeatYieldsFall Based on the market performance over the past two trading days, here is a complete analysis of $SNDK's price movement during these two days:
8-04 Trading Day Performance
The overall bullish sentiment was very strong that day, driven by a recovery in the storage cycle and a significantly better-than-expected forward-looking earnings report. The opening price was $1360, the intraday low dipped to $1340, and the price surged to an intraday high of $1415.37, with a maximum intraday gain of 9.29%, closing firmly above $1407.
The total trading volume reached $9.222 billion, with a turnover rate of 4.51%. The forward-looking revenue and net profit growth both exceeded 250% year-over-year, attracting a large amount of short-term speculative capital to position for the official earnings report rally.
However, the $1415 level faced significant resistance, with multiple attempts to break through failing, accumulating considerable short-term profit-taking chips.
Previous Day Market Trend
The previous day was a consolidation and gradual upward movement, with the stock price slowly testing higher levels. Investors began to pay attention to the recovery news in storage chips, and trading volume gradually increased, building bullish momentum for the explosive rise on August 4.
Current Overall Situation
Short-term moving averages are all supporting the price, maintaining a solid bullish trend. The $1387 level is a key support price;
This is a short-term trend driven by sector rotation, with the market's core theme still centered on the computing power sector led by Nvidia;
Currently, TTM price-to-earnings ratio has reached 46.25, and the stock price has already priced in most of the earnings benefits in advance. There is a risk of a pullback after the official earnings report is released due to profit realization.
Simple Short-term View
As long as the price holds above the $1387 support, it is advisable to continue watching; if the price repeatedly tests the $1415 resistance but fails to break through, be cautious of short-term profit-taking that could trigger a price pullback. $UB Market and News Analysis
⚠️ Casual market chat only, not investment advice! AI-Agent sector token, extremely volatile, with high risks of contract liquidation and token unlocking sell pressure.
Current Market Status:
Current price 0.172, after a violent surge, it entered a high-level consolidation range. It is driven by the AI Agent main theme; when the hype comes, the elasticity is very strong, and the pullback is also very severe when the hype fades.
This rally is largely driven by thematic sentiment and short covering, not sustained real business cash flow buying. There is a large accumulation of short-term profit-taking above, and obvious pressure from previous historical trapped positions.
The market is highly correlated with BTC overall market and AI small-cap sector sentiment; when the AI sector collectively explodes, UB surges; when AI funds rotate out, UB’s decline is much greater than mainstream coins. Volume fluctuates greatly; low-volume rallies are easily crushed and fall back.
📰 News Breakdown
🟢 Positive Factors
1. Narrative positioning as a decentralized AI memory layer, providing persistent on-chain memory for AI Agents, integrating with multiple mainstream Agent protocols like ElizaOS and Virtuals. The Agent service market is already live. The sector is a current hot mainstream theme with real ecological cooperation and implementation, not just empty stories.
2. Binance Alpha launch, with perpetual contracts opened, exchange traffic support; when AI sector rotates, funds will prioritize flowing back to UB, community heat is active.
3. Future iterations with ZK memory verification versions, ecosystem hackathons, and new Agent collaborations can catalyze short-term market moves. Once sector hype restarts, price elasticity will be fully released.
4. Deep oversold previously, chips have been fully exchanged; when the market speculates on AI infrastructure, UB will benefit from sector beta dividends.
🔴 Core Negative Factors (Suppressing Market Mainline)
1. Token unlocking is the biggest mid-to-long-term risk: total supply 10 billion, currently only 25% circulating, 75% locked. Team, treasury, and community shares are continuously and linearly unlocked, creating constant potential sell pressure; if new buying cannot absorb this, upside will be severely limited.
2. Strong narrative but limited actual on-chain paid usage; token consumption demand has not scaled; price relies more on thematic speculation than business revenue. Once the market tires of AI-Agent, funds will quickly withdraw.
3. Intense competition within the sector; many similar AI infrastructure projects. If project iteration progress lags expectations, funds will easily abandon it.
4. Contract position volatility is large, frequent long-short battles; if BTC weakens and AI sector cools, UB’s decline will be amplified. Historically, single-day drops of around 30% have occurred.
Key Price Levels
- First resistance above: 0.195-0.210, strong short-term barrier; needs volume to hold above for rebound continuation; low-volume spikes likely lead to profit-taking sell-offs.
- Strong resistance: 0.24-0.26, only after breaking 0.21 can it attempt previous highs.
- Short-term lifeline support: 0.148-0.155, core defense zone for this rebound; holding maintains range-bound consolidation.
- If it decisively breaks below 0.132, this upward structure is broken, triggering deeper pullbacks.
⚠️ Small-cap AI tokens often have spikes; momentary breaks are not valid breakdowns; stop losses should not be set at round numbers.
Bull and Bear Realities
✅ Bulls: AI Agent mainline narrative with ecological cooperation; Binance traffic support; thematic rotation after oversold; short covering brings impulse moves.
❌ Bears: Huge unlocking sell pressure looming; insufficient actual on-chain token consumption, story-driven; dual pressure from profit-taking and trapped positions above; severe declines when sector cools.
Three Scenario Simulations
1️⃣ Optimistic: Hold 0.148-0.155 support, BTC stabilizes, AI sector collectively warms, volume supports above 0.21, pushing toward 0.24+; strictly no chasing highs, thematic impulse moves only suitable for base positions.
2️⃣ Baseline (most probable): Intense oscillation between 0.132-0.21 range. Positive news triggers rallies, profit-taking crushes price, churning chips, awaiting AI sector rotation and project updates to choose direction.
3️⃣ Pessimistic: Effective break below 0.148 support, combined with weak overall market and AI theme cooling, further deep pullback below 0.132.
Practical Thoughts
UB is a typical thematic speculation token, not a value coin for long-term holding. Watch two things: AI sector heat and the absorption strength of unlocking sell pressure. Heat comes fast and fades fast.
If holding: defend around 0.148; if unable to break 0.195-0.21 on rallies, prioritize partial profit-taking.
If not holding: observe first; if testing speculation, participate with very small positions, strict stop loss, and low contract leverage.
Focus on three key points: BTC market, overall AI-Agent sector heat; 0.148-0.155 support status; major token unlocking release news.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $BEAT Trade Review
I reversed too early.
A few days ago, I shorted $BEAT, entering at 4.1172 and closing at 3.0391 for a profit of over 100U.
The mistake came immediately after.
I barely had time to process the win before flipping long at 3.1334.
Now price is sitting around 2.87.
The position is down roughly 82% unrealized, with a floating loss of 25U on 28U of margin. That's not a small amount of money.
Looking back at the 15-minute chart, the mistake is obvious.
Price fell straight from 3.55 with almost no meaningful bounce. Going long at 3.13 was like stepping into a falling elevator and expecting it to go back up by pressing the button.
A classic case of trying to catch a falling knife.
The problem wasn't the market.
The problem was my rhythm.
I had just closed a profitable short and immediately wanted to catch the reversal. Instead of waiting for confirmation, I carried the mindset of the previous trade into the next one.
My plan
- No averaging down.
- No stubborn holding.
- 2.70 is my line in the sand. If it breaks with strong volume, I'll cut the position.
- If price rebounds toward 3.00, I'll also look to exit.
- No dragging the trade out.
Other charts
$PUMP looks strong today. The daily chart is breaking out on rising volume and is only a step away from the previous high around 0.0022. Still, meme coins are extremely volatile, and chasing strength often ends with buying the top. I'll stay patient.
$UB continues to grind higher. The daily chart is showing a clean V-shaped recovery, with the MACD crossing above the zero line. 0.16 remains key support. I'll only consider an entry after a healthy pullback that holds above that level. If no setup comes, I'll let it go.
Final thought
This $BEAT loss wasn't caused by poor technical analysis.
It was caused by poor timing.
I finished one winning trade, got greedy, and rushed into the next without letting the market reset.
25U isn't just a loss—it's tuition. Hopefully, it's a lesson I only have to pay once.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch $SPCX
No one who has shorted Musk has ever ended well in history.
But this time, they have already made $7.3 billion.
In 2018, Tesla's stock price kept falling, Wall Street collectively shorted it, and Musk cursed the short sellers on Twitter until he was fined by the SEC.
Later, Tesla rose 20 times, and the short sellers were almost completely wiped out.
In 2020, shorting Tesla was the most crowded trade on Wall Street, then Tesla rose 7 times in one year, and the short sellers were crushed again.
Musk himself summarized it in one sentence: "Shorting my company has an extremely low survival probability."
Now the same script has come to SpaceX.
The largest IPO in history, $85.7 billion raised, $135 issue price, quickly surged to $226. Then it fell to $107 in two months, halving. Shorting institutions have already made $7.3 billion, the second largest short target this year after Tesla.
Musk said on X almost the same words as in 2018: "Institutions shorting SpaceX have an extremely low survival probability."
But this time there is a key difference.
In 2018, when Tesla was shorted, the company had already started making profits; the short sellers were betting against a profitable company. The outcome was clear: the data would crush you.
Look at SpaceX now, a net loss of $4.9 billion for the whole of 2025. In Q1 2026, another loss of $4.28 billion. Up to now, SpaceX is a company that has never made money; this time the short sellers are not betting against a profitable company, but a company still burning cash.
Tonight is the watershed.
Q2 expected revenue is $6.88 billion, a 47% increase from Q1's $4.7 billion, with Starlink having 10.3 million subscribers, doubling year-on-year. If revenue significantly beats expectations, losses narrow, and free cash flow improves, then tonight will be a replay of Tesla in 2018, and the short sellers will be crushed.
But if the financial report numbers don't hold up and losses continue to widen, then the short sellers might really win against Musk this time.
There is also a looming bomb: on August 6, 911.5 million shares held by insiders will be unlocked. If the financial report is strong enough, the unlocking pressure can be withstood; if the report is weak, unlocking will be the starting point of a second wave of selling pressure.
One financial report, unlocking two days later, and the $7.3 billion bet by shorting institutions—all three collide tonight.
Shorting Musk has always been a life-or-death gamble; this time, the short sellers have a chance to win.
Tonight's financial report will decide whether they go down in history or repeat the same mistakes.🟠 A potential signal for Bitcoin's next rally may be emerging.
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have often unfolded in phases. Long-term holders (LTHs) gradually distribute part of their holdings into strength, then rebuild positions during corrections before the next major advance.
📊 In previous cycles: • The first rally was accompanied by measured profit-taking from LTHs. • During the following pullback, LTHs accumulated aggressively. • Once accumulation slowed and supply held by LTHs began to decline again, the second—and often stronger—rally followed.
This cycle has looked different.
The initial uptrend began in January 2023 and extended through late 2025, with LTHs actively buying and selling throughout the move. During subsequent corrections, they accumulated Bitcoin at a pace that exceeded their distribution.
Now, that accumulation trend appears to have paused, and LTH-held supply has started to decline.
📈 Previous cycles saw the second rally begin roughly 8 months (2013), 17 months (2017), and 16 months (2021) after the first. This time, the timeline has stretched much longer—likely influenced by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, continued institutional inflows, and sustained buying from new large holders.
💡 The key takeaway: Long-term holders still control the largest amount of Bitcoin on record, and if their supply is beginning to decline after a prolonged accumulation phase, it could signal the start of a new stage in the current market cycle.
As always, on-chain signals should be considered alongside macroeconomic conditions and broader market trends.
$BTC
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 🐋 Whale Watch: Who is still bullish on these coins in 2026?
=> $LINK
=> $TAO
=> $SOL
=> $FET
=> $SNDK
=> $MU
=> $AAVE
=> $ETH
=> $UNI
=> $NEAR $LAB $SOL $SSV $AR $LDO
Still early. Still accumulating.