Orbit Post Sitemap
120,000 → 58,000 → 80,000: Has the bottom really passed, or is this just a brief breather halfway up the mountain 🤔🤔?
To be honest, I feel really conflicted right now.
Looking back at history, there have been four major bear markets. Even the mildest one saw a retracement of 77%. Starting from 120,000, the theoretical low should have at least touched 27,000, and in extreme cases even 18,000. Now the lowest point only dropped to 58,000 and rebounded to 80,000. No matter how you look at it, it seems like just a pause during a downtrend.
Looking at the time cycle, previous bear markets bottomed out over at least a full year. Looking back at this round, how long has it really been? If 58,000 is the final bottom, then this bear market is too mild, so mild that I feel uneasy and can’t easily believe it.
But then I ask myself: Can the old historical patterns really still apply to the current market?
ETF funds keep flowing in continuously; Wall Street pension funds and hedge funds are putting real money into the market; the supply contraction from the halving hasn’t fully played out yet. Also, the drop to 58,000 came with huge turnover volume, and many long-term institutional holders repositioned and built new positions at that level.
It can’t be that all these smart players with massive resources are wrong in their judgment.
This is where the contradiction lies. If 58,000 is truly the bottom, then why is the rebound to 80,000 repeatedly suppressed, making it hard to push further up?
If 80,000 is the start of a new rally, why is the volume weakening and market enthusiasm cooling down? Even the most optimistic analysts only cautiously talk about a steady rise; no one dares to boldly call for new all-time highs.
You’ll find that the bullish arguments make sense, and the bearish logic also holds.
This is the most tormenting phase of the market, presenting bearish evidence on one side and bullish signals on the other, leaving people stuck in the middle, swaying back and forth. Bears believe history always repeats itself; bulls insist "this time is different." Both sides don’t understand each other and think the other is ridiculous.
I’m slowly feeling that reality might lie somewhere in between.
It’s neither the ultimate bottom that causes despair and widespread panic, nor the grand start of a bull market. It’s more like a chaotic zone where bulls and bears are strangling each other.
From here, it can pull up to 90,000 or 100,000, tempting you to chase higher; or it can drop back to 60,000 or even 50,000, forcing you to cut losses painfully and exit.
What we really need to be wary of isn’t the number 80,000 itself. It’s that everyone is trapped in a binary choice: Will it break below 58,000? Can it hold above 80,000?
Once the market decides on one direction, the opposite leveraged positions will be liquidated en masse, and the ensuing volatility will be so intense it will exceed most people’s psychological tolerance.
So I no longer dare to make definitive conclusions like before, saying "it’s not the bottom yet." This market beast is best at punishing overconfident people.
It could very well stop falling at 58,000 and slowly oscillate upward; or it could first rally to 85,000 to create a bull trap, then crash hard back to 40,000.
I’m no longer guessing the outcome.
Right now, 80,000 is neither a ticket to bull market paradise nor a notice of falling into the abyss. It’s just a crossroads repeatedly tugging at human nature.
Keep a clear head and hold some ammunition.
Don’t go all in, don’t completely exit and watch, don’t stubbornly take one side. Wait for the market to reveal its cards, then follow its lead.
Accepting that the market itself is full of unknowns, forcing yourself to pick a side is meaningless. This is probably the best mindset to face such a torn market.
$BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 Bitcoin has just shown the market that demand is back, with spot ETF inflows recording one of their strongest weeks of 2026, but here is the part I think many traders are overlooking: strong inflows after a major rally do not automatically mean the trend is safe. The real test is whether this demand can continue when the excitement cools down. If institutions keep buying while BTC consolidates, that would tell us something very different from a rally driven mainly by short covering and momentBessent's real scheme: forcing a short squeeze on U.S. Treasuries CTA, pushing the 10-year yield down to 4.3%?
Bessent is accused of artificially driving up bond prices through Treasury repo operations and debt structure adjustments, triggering large-scale passive covering by CTA trend funds (whose current short positions are near historical extremes), forcibly suppressing the 10-year yield to 4.3%, thereby gaining political leverage for the Trump administration. Goldman Sachs estimates that if bond prices rise by 2 standard deviations, the covering scale will set a historical record.Since its launch in October last year, Trade.xyz's perpetual contracts for oil, indices, and pre-IPO assets on HL have reached a cumulative trading volume of about $500B. This number is huge, but it still comes down to the same old question: how does trading volume translate into token value capture? Without clarity on how much fees the platform collects, who the revenue belongs to, whether users are trading repeatedly, how high the market-making costs are, and whether regulations will change the product structure, no matter how high the trading volume is, it only reflects the platform's prosperity and has nothing to do with the users.The market is clearly stratifying with three main assets taking on distinct roles. BTC remains a solid pillar as ETF inflows continue, pushing the price from 60,000 USD to around 79,800 USD, suitable for a long-term core position. ETH is breaking out thanks to the wave of institutionalization as the spot ETF recorded a net inflow of about 699 million USD during the week, the highest level of the year, driving the price from 1."Korean retail investors just redeemed 1 billion from SK Hynix, and exchanges immediately offered a 20x leverage meat grinder"
Korean funds were just forced by regulators to withdraw nearly $1 billion from SK Hynix and Samsung leveraged ETFs, and crypto exchanges turned around and loaded this liquidity into 20x leveraged derivative meat grinders.
Binance pushed all 2x SK Hynix long/short and semiconductor ETFs onto the order book at once. Buying leveraged ETFs through traditional brokers requires completing 5 days of simulated trading. Nearly $1 billion was forced out this month, with trading volume plummeting 90%. But on crypto exchanges, there is no review process and no price limit restrictions.
This is not about providing a channel to US stocks; it is a cross-market liquidity dimensionality reduction strike.
Traditional 2x leveraged ETFs inherently suffer daily rebalancing mathematical volatility decay. Now exchanges have added a 20x leverage layer, directly amplifying the underlying volatility by 40 times. US stocks trade only 6.5 hours daily. If a chip black swan event breaks out overnight, market makers can use 20x leverage to preemptively dump positions in the crypto space.
While traditional finance is still struggling with how to set controls to cool down, crypto exchanges have already transformed US stock targets into 24/7 cash machines using 20x leverage. $BTC The bull market is here, can $BTC hold steady at 80,000 and continue to break through?
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is around $80,659, having reached a high of $81,104 and dipped to a low of $76,891. It swung more than four thousand dollars within a day, so this bullish candle does look very satisfying. But to say that $80,000 is already stable, I think it's still a bit early.
This rise isn't purely driven by sentiment. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.92 billion. These buy orders have supported the market, but Bitcoin has already risen more than 20% in a week. Those who made profits earlier want to cash out, and the newly leveraged buyers are easily shaken out, so the intraday spikes and dips are normal.
I'm not looking at many fancy indicators right now; mainly waiting to see how the $79,500 to $80,000 range behaves. If the price can hold after a pullback, then $80,000 will slowly turn from previous resistance into support. After surpassing today's high of $81,104 again, the market will have reason to look toward around $84,000.
But if it breaks through and then falls back below $79,000, and ETF inflows start to slow, I won't insist this is just a shakeout. It might need to retest around $77,000 again.Since the concentrated rebound of storage stocks on July 30, SKHX, SNDK, and MU on Hyperliquid have risen approximately 29.9%, 52.6%, and 28.5% respectively; however, the total value of their open interest contracts on Hyperliquid has dropped from about $999 million to $677 million, a decrease of approximately $322 million, or 32.2%.
The actual number of open interest contracts has significantly contracted:
- SKHX's OI decreased from about $540 million to $385 million, down 28.7%; during the same period, the number of contracts held decreased by 45.1%;
- SNDK's OI decreased from about $196 million to $157 million, down 19.5%; the number of contracts held decreased by 47.2%;
- MU's OI decreased from about $263 million to $134 million, down 49.1%; the number of contracts held decreased by 60.4%.
The recent nearly one-month rise in these three storage assets was not accompanied by a continuous expansion of open interest positions. Since prices rose significantly during the same period, looking only at OI in dollar terms underestimates the degree of contract number decline. On-chain data for this round of the market shows a trend closer to a "deleveraging rebound."
In the past 7 days, the deleveraging trend has continued. Comparing snapshots from the afternoon of August 18, the combined OI of the three dropped from about $869 million to $677 million, a decrease of approximately $192 million, or 22.1%.
Specifically, SKHX's OI fell 21.9%, with contract numbers down 24.1%; SNDK's OI fell 30.3%, with contract numbers down 21.0%; MU's OI fell 10.4%, with contract numbers down 4.2%.
Comparing the total margin of million-dollar whales also shows a decline in leverage over the past 7 days. From August 18 to now:
- SKHX long effective leverage dropped from about 4.5x to 3.6x, shorts from 5.5x to 2.9x;
- SNDK longs dropped from 5.8x to 3.4x, shorts from 6.7x to 5.9x;
- MU longs dropped from 6.8x to 4.8x, shorts from 7.7x to 4.7x. Bitcoin just broke through $80,000, and the whole market is celebrating.
Strategy, the largest Bitcoin whale on Earth, didn’t move a muscle last week.
From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock through the ATM program, raising $2 billion net.
And then? Not a single BTC was bought.
Holdings stayed at 840,447 coins, completely unchanged.
But that’s not the point. The point is—
They now hold $6.7 billion in cash.
$5.1 billion in USD Reserve, plus $1.59 billion newly established USD Cash.
$6.7 billion sitting in the account. That’s equivalent to 0.56% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, and about one-third of the daily trading volume.
This is not pocket change; this is a nuclear bomb.
Strategy’s past playbook was simple: raise funds → buy BTC → raise funds again → buy more BTC.
But this time it’s different.
After getting $2 billion, $136 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares, $300 million replenished the USD Reserve, and the rest was all put into the newly established USD Cash account.
The CEO publicly said: “As of August 23, Strategy holds about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with net leverage at 0%.”
Net leverage at 0%.
A company that once bought coins on borrowed money now says it’s zero-leverage.
It’s like the gambler you know who always goes all-in suddenly telling you he’s now holding only cash, no chips.
Do you believe it?
I don’t.
This is not retreat; this is gathering strength.
Next, watch three signal lights:
Signal One (short term, 1-2 weeks): What management says.
The CEO has already hinted—“plans to continue increasing Bitcoin holdings before year-end.”
But words are words, money is money.
In the coming weeks, if SEC filings explicitly state “continue to increase BTC holdings,” MSTR’s premium will quickly recover.
Currently, MSTR’s mNAV has dropped from a high of 1.4x at the start of the year to about 0.7x—meaning the stock price is cheaper than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.
This means the market is selling this “Bitcoin proxy” at a discount.
Any signal of accumulation will quickly narrow this discount.
Signal Two (mid term, Q4): When the price hits a range, will they act?
If BTC pulls back to a range—say $55k-$58k—watch if Strategy makes a move.
Note, their average holding cost is $75,385. BTC is now above $80k, so they have an unrealized gain of about $3.4 billion.
But what if it falls back?
If Strategy acts in the $55k-$58k range, it means they recognize that as the “value zone.”
This will be the strongest psychological support in the market—if even the biggest whale is buying at this level, what is there to fear?
Signal Three (long term): Where will the money go?
$6.7 billion, three paths:
First, buy BTC. The most direct path, the strongest buying pressure. Put $6.7 billion in, see how much BTC can be pulled up.
Second, large-scale repurchase of MSTR stock. If management chooses this path, it means they believe their company is seriously undervalued—mNAV at 0.7x is indeed cheap. This would also indirectly support BTC, since MSTR itself is a proxy asset for BTC.
Third, continue paying down debt and optimize capital structure. The dullest but most stable path—zero-leverage Strategy is a Strategy that can survive until the next bull market.
My personal bet: $6.7 billion won’t all go down one path, but one path will definitely lead to BTC.
Operational advice, simple and direct:
For BTC spot holders: Strategy’s “gathering strength” is not bearish. A whale holding $6.7 billion in cash with zero leverage can act at any time. Be patient and wait for Q4 catalysts.
For MSTR traders: Short term faces pressure from premium contraction—mNAV dropped from 1.4x to 0.7x, which hurts. But long term, a financially healthier MSTR should enjoy a higher valuation multiple than a “high-leverage gambler.” The discount is an opportunity, as long as you can withstand volatility.
$6.7 billion is not for bank deposits.
Trump’s bragging and Fed’s talk can’t affect BTC’s long-term trend.
But Strategy’s $6.7 billion is real money.
This money will definitely be put to use—either turned into BTC or into credit endorsement for MSTR.
Either way, it’s worth more attention than politicians’ words.
This is the real “smart money movement.”
$BTC $MSTR $xSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 Gold $XAU's monthly increase of +13.5% in gold content lies outside the "rate cut expectations"—the core driver is the weaponization of the dollar (sanctions on Iran) and concerns over currency depreciation triggered by Treasury intervention. When sanctions truly squeeze Iran's supply (floating oil reserves down by 25 million barrels) and Russia is selling off gold reserves (lowest since 2020), gold's "non-sovereign currency" attribute is repriced. At $4591/oz, gold is trading not on interest rates, but on trust.
However, the risks are: dollar stabilization and rebound; easing geopolitical tensions; slowing central bank gold purchases; and a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
The long-term outlook remains optimistic #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 如果连最犹豫的人都开始问"现在还能追吗"，那这轮反弹大概已经走完一半了。 你是在等回调，还是在等一个"再涨一点就卖"的借口？ 我盯着屏幕的时候，最先注意到的不是BTC破了79000，而是OKB这种平时不太起眼的代币跳了5.72%。这往往说明，钱开始从头部资产往边缘叙事试探，风险偏好是真实抬升了，不是单纯指数行情。 BTC到79248，ETH到2514，SOL回到96附近，单看数字是普涨，但细看结构更值得琢磨。BitMine又买了32447枚ETH，总持仓584.76万枚，87%拿去质押了。这个动作的意义不在买本身，而在于市场上的流通筹码被持续抽走，卖压的源头少了一块，这对ETH的定价是个慢变量，短期内看不出来，但每多一次这样的公告，空头的底气就薄一分。 板块数据也很有意思，NFT涨6.92%，Layer2涨6.07%，RWA涨3.91%，AI涨2.57%。这组排序透露出的情绪是，资金在找弹性，而不是找避险。NFT和L2这种前期跌得惨的赛道反弹最猛，说明市场愿意去接那些超跌的盘子，风险偏好确实在回暖。 但我要泼一点冷水。当前这个位置，最核心的问题不是方向，而是量能。BTC从73000一路Sold 18.26 million shares, netting 2 billion USD.
And then?
——BTC holdings: 840,447 coins, exactly the same as last week.
Four years.
Since Strategy's first financing, not a single BTC has been bought.
This is not "not buying anymore,"
this is "not rushing to buy."
Do you understand?
Before: financing → put money into BTC → bet on direction
Now: financing → first build USD Reserve to 5.1 billion → straighten out the debt structure → completely lock down the risk of "forced coin selling"
In one sentence:
Strategy has evolved from "the largest BTC retail holder" to a "true institutional operator."
The era of mindless buy-buy-buy for four years is over.
It is waiting for an opportunity, a moment when it won't be forced to sell.
Before, people feared it buying, because after buying it was a high-leverage gambler;
now people fear it not buying, because the 5.1 billion USD bullet is already loaded.
In the short term, don't expect it to pump the market, there's a buying vacuum;
in the long term, once this ammunition pulls the trigger, it might leave everyone stunned.
$BTC $MSTR $xSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 What really interests me about the US targeting Iran this time is not the phrase "economic D-Day," but the appearance of something previously less conspicuous on the sanctions list:
digital assets.
In this round of actions by the US Treasury, digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping are grouped together.
Besenet called this "economic D-Day," and Trump even personally called several national leaders, urging them to stop dealings with Iran.
What does this mean?
In the past, when the US sanctioned a country, the core weapons were the dollar, banks, financial accounts, and the traditional trade system.
If you don't settle in dollars, I can cut off your financial channels.
But now, digital assets are singled out for sanctions, which actually indicates one thing:
The US can no longer treat cryptocurrencies as a fringe market.
Because they are truly entering the real-world financial game.
This year, the US Treasury has already taken action against Iran-related digital asset activities, specifically naming Iran's Hormuz Safe system. The US believes that such digital asset payments can help Iran evade traditional financial sanctions.
Even more interestingly, Iran has been continuously trying to use crypto assets for cross-border settlements.
This creates a very interesting logic:
The more the US tries to restrict Iran using the dollar system, the more motivated Iran is to find settlement methods outside the dollar system.#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ $LAB is down nearly 48% since Aug. 1, while $BEAT fell from $6 highs under real token-unlock pressure—including a $67.8M release on Aug. 1.
But here’s the part worth watching: not every deep drawdown ends the same way.
The ZEC comparison doesn’t fully hold up either. Its breakout was backed by a real ETF catalyst, not simply “hard consolidation.”
And as for the long/short ratios? I’d treat those cautiously unless they can be independently verified.
#DailyOrbit Pinduoduo's quarterly revenue reached ¥112.4 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, below the market expectation of ¥116.35 billion; net profit attributable to the parent company was ¥27.2 billion, a 12% year-over-year decrease, and adjusted net profit was ¥28.5 billion, down 13% year-over-year.
#EarningsReportObserver
The most obvious change is that PDD, which used to grow at rates of 30% or 50%, is now entering a single-digit growth phase.
At the same time, investments have not stopped. Total operating expenses in Q2 reached ¥36.6 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, including sales and marketing expenses of ¥29.7 billion, and R&D expenses grew about 27% year-over-year. Temu also faces cost pressures from the cancellation of the US low-price parcel tax exemption policy and new parcel fees in Europe.
However, this earnings report should not be simply interpreted as "the fundamentals have collapsed."
PDD's operating profit actually increased 8% year-over-year to ¥27.8 billion, and operating cash flow rose from ¥21.6 billion to ¥25.7 billion. In other words, the core business is still profitable, but the era of high growth is clearly becoming harder to replicate.
So what I am most concerned about next is no longer how many countries Temu can enter, but: how much profit PDD can ultimately retain while competing for these markets?
At this stage of e-commerce, growth is certainly important, but if every new revenue segment requires higher subsidies, logistics, and compliance costs, the market will ultimately reprice the "quality of growth."A friend probably shorted SanDisk $SNDK around August 16, and then on the 18th, it rose to over 1800. At that time, he was in a hurry to buy some U from me to cover his position, almost got liquidated, but luckily he held on. A couple of days ago, $SNDK dropped to over 1400, and he probably took a big hit. I saw him shorting, so I shorted a hand too and took a small bite 😃. However, this narrow win also exposed the huge risks of shorting extremely volatile assets. A few days ago, $SNDK trended down to around 1400 (with a low of about 1416 USD), largely as a concentrated liquidation following the previous crazy short squeeze rally. A large number of long positions took profits, causing this rapid pullback of about a hundred dollars. However, the market showed quite strong buying support in the 1400–1430 USD range, then quickly rebounded back above 1500 USD (currently fluctuating around 1523 USD), indicating that bulls and bears have formed intense competition at this level again. In the short term, expect range-bound oscillation (1420–1600 USD): After the sharp drop from the 1800 high and the quick rebound from 1400, short-term indicators need to recover. In the next few days, it is unlikely to start a one-sided big move immediately, but rather to fluctuate widely between 1450–1580 USD, digesting previous trapped and profit-taking positions. Resistance above and support below: The upper 1580–1600 USD range has already shifted from early support to If you've been in the crypto space for the past four years, you definitely know this "person".
Since 2020, Strategy has been like an automatic coin-buying machine—purchasing 10,000 to 20,000 BTC every quarter, unfailingly, rain or shine.
The market has gotten used to its presence. Every time BTC dips a bit, everyone says, "No worries, Strategy is about to buy."
But last month, this machine shut down.
From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock through the ATM program, raising about $2.0065 billion net.
And then?
Not a single BTC was bought.
Holdings remained at 840,447 BTC—no increase, no decrease.
What does 840,447 BTC mean?
It accounts for over 4% of the total BTC supply. The world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder stayed still for several consecutive weeks.
Over the past four years, Strategy averaged buying 10,000 to 20,000 BTC each quarter, making it the most predictable buyer in the market.
Now, this buying pressure has hit pause.
But here’s the plot twist—
Strategy is not out of money.
It expanded its USD Reserve to $5.1 billion and established a new $1.59 billion "USD Cash" liquidity account. Combined, that's a $6.69 billion cash arsenal.
This is the largest cash reserve in Strategy's history.
They have money but aren't buying.
Why?
Because with 840,447 BTC in holdings, position management takes priority over adding more.
Strategy is now considering not "whether to buy," but "when to buy, how to buy, and how much to buy without crashing their own position."
Where this money goes will determine BTC's trajectory in the coming months.
Scenario one: Buy BTC
Throwing in $6.69 billion equals about 85,000 BTC (at roughly $80,000 each). But Strategy likely won’t go all in at once—they will buy in batches to avoid becoming the market’s counterparty.
Structural buying will resume, but the certainty of "monthly must-buy" is gone.
Scenario two: Buy back securities / pay down debt
No new buying pressure. Short-term bearish for BTC.
But the company’s finances will be healthier, reducing the risk of forced coin sales.
Don’t forget, Strategy’s average BTC cost is $75,385. At the current $80,000 price, they’ve just recently broken even. In extreme market conditions, a healthy balance sheet is their last line of defense against selling at a loss.
So my conclusion is simple:
Strategy is no longer an "automatic coin-buying machine."
It is a "strategic allocator."
In the short term, the market loses a familiar monthly buyer—this is bearish sentiment for BTC.
In the long term, a Strategy with $6.7 billion in cash, zero net leverage, and holdings accounting for 4% of total supply is BTC’s biggest institutional "billboard."
The pause is to strike better.
$BTC $xSTRC $MSTR #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC $ETH $XAU
From the perspective of macro data and capital flows, this round of rally is the result of multiple positive factors resonating:
● US Treasury repo amplifies liquidity expectations: The US Treasury announced a significant expansion of the 20-year and 30-year long-term Treasury repo scale (at least doubled), pushing long-term yields significantly lower, directly enhancing the attractiveness of high-risk assets such as Bitcoin .
● Weakening dollar + rate cut expectations: The market expects the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts within the year, weakening the dollar index and further benefiting dollar-denominated crypto assets .
● Spot ETF continues to attract funds: Since January, Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated net inflows exceeding $12 billion, providing real spot demand support for the market .
● Policy tailwinds: Trump urged Congress to pass the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act), which the market interprets as positive regulation for crypto .
● Concentrated short liquidations amplify volatility: Crowded short positions faced concentrated liquidations, combined with derivatives leverage, further amplifying the gains .
It is worth noting that ETH has strengthened simultaneously, with a weekly gain of about 30%, reflecting that the entire crypto sector is in a strong rally driven by macro liquidity .
Today's real-time overview
Today (August 25), global risk assets continue to show strength. In the crypto market, Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, returning to highs since May, with ETH and other major coins strengthening simultaneously, mainly driven by the triple factors of US Treasury repo lowering long-term rates, a weakening dollar, and spot ETF fund inflows; in precious metals, gold recorded its strongest weekly gain since March 2020 last week (about 5%~7.7%), and today it is slightly up with narrow fluctuations at high levels , while silver was also strong last week but saw a slight pullback of about 1% today. Overall, the weakening dollar and expectations of loose liquidity are the common macro themes driving cross-asset gains this week. Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path and changes in US Treasury yields for the sustainability of the rally.Just now, Bitcoin broke through $81,000, hitting a three-month high. The entire market is celebrating wildly, institutional funds are flowing in rapidly, and shorts are being completely crushed.
And then?
Strategy—the largest Bitcoin bull on Earth—didn't buy a single share last Monday.
That's right. From August 17 to 23, Strategy sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR stock, raising a net $2 billion. But their Bitcoin holdings? 840,447 coins, not a single move.
The market's most loyal and predictable big buyer suddenly hit the pause button.
What the hell is going on?
🔴 First, let's see what the bears say—"The signal is terrible"
First, familiar faces have disappeared. Strategy used to shout "I bought again" every few weeks over the past few years. Now? Several consecutive weeks of zero accumulation. The market's most stable buying force is gone. The short-term demand side lost a steady anchor.
Second, common shares are being diluted crazily. 18.26 million new shares flooded the market. The BTC amount per MSTR share is decreasing, putting pressure on valuation premiums. Shareholders holding their tickets find their stakes diluted—who can stand that?
Third, the signaling effect is deadly. Even Strategy is "cash is king." What will other institutions think seeing this? "If the most steadfast bulls are waiting, shouldn't we wait too?" Once this herd mentality of waiting forms, it worsens market sentiment.
🟢 Now, what the bulls say—"You’re all wrong"
First, the risk of forced coin selling is almost zero. Strategy now holds $5.1 billion in USD reserves plus a newly established $1.59 billion USD cash liquidity pool. Together nearly $6.7 billion in cash reserves. Even if Bitcoin halves to $40,000, Strategy can comfortably handle debts and pay dividends—without selling a single BTC. Let me ask: what were you most afraid of before? Forced liquidation selling coins. That risk is gone now.
Second, timing ability is improving. Bitcoin rose from $70,000 to $81,000. What did Strategy do? They didn’t chase the high. Holding cash waiting for opportunities—that’s a sign of a mature investor, not FOMO-driven retail.
Third, 840,447 BTC, not a single coin less. The core bullish position remains solid, accounting for about 4% of total Bitcoin supply. Average cost $75,385. At the current $81,000 price, the unrealized gains are considerable. The base position is intact, the kingdom remains.
Fourth, future buying power could be even greater. What does $5.1 billion in ammo mean? At $60,000 per BTC, it can buy 85,000 BTC. At the current $80,000, it can still buy over 60,000 BTC. This is not a retreat; it’s gearing up for a big move.
📌 My overall judgment—don’t be swayed by emotions
Short-term bearish bias—the buying vacuum is a fact. Strategy, the "most stable big buyer," is temporarily out, so the market loses a support force in the short term.
Mid-term neutral to bullish—the financial structure is improving. $5.1 billion cash reserves + zero leverage, Strategy’s balance sheet is healthier than ever. Risk of forced coin selling? Completely eliminated.
Long-term—it depends on one thing.
Do you believe this $5.1 billion will eventually turn into BTC?
If yes—the current "not buying" is to "buy more" later. CEO Phong Le has already said: Bitcoin accumulation will continue later this year. So now is the buildup, waiting for better prices and the right timing for a heavy strike.
If no—Strategy is turning from a "Bitcoin company" back into a "software company." Then this $6.7 billion cash might just sit on the books forever, used for buybacks, debt repayment, dividends—never coming back.
I believe Saylor. The most correct thing this man has done in his life is going all in on Bitcoin. Will he stop now? I don’t believe it.
Not chasing $81,000 is to buy more at $60,000.
The current "not buying" is precisely the strongest signal of "wanting to buy."
$BTC $MSTR $xSTRC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #Why did oil prices fall after the US launched economic isolation against Iran? The market begins to doubt whether "economic suffocation" can be enforced
Last night, the US officially expanded sanctions on Iran, targeting nearly 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, while strengthening secondary sanctions threats: other countries and companies continuing to trade with Iran may face exclusion from the US financial system. Iran clearly stated today that it will retaliate.
But the market reaction is very interesting. $BZ already dropped more than 2% yesterday and only slightly rebounded to around $92/barrel today. Reuters pointed out that the new measures have not yet introduced stronger enforcement methods, so the crude oil market reaction is limited.
Why it matters: A few days ago, the market's biggest fear was that the US would really cut off Iranian oil buyers. Now that the policy is implemented but oil prices have not surged again, that itself is information.
If Brent continues to stay around $90, it will actually be positive for US inflation, US debt, and tech stocks, and will also ease the "oil price → inflation → interest rate hike" pressure faced by $BTC, which can be considered a small positive.Capital Markets and Stock Price Performance
• Earnings Beat Expectations but Valuation Retraces: Although SanDisk reported record-high revenue and gross margin for fiscal Q4 2026 (quarterly revenue reached $8.965 billion, gross margin at 84.6%), the stock price has significantly pulled back from its June 2026 peak (around $2350) due to market concerns about the industry cycle peaking, currently fluctuating near $1500.
• Increasing Institutional Divergence: Leading investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America remain optimistic about its pricing power in AI inference storage and long-term NBM agreements, maintaining positive ratings; however, short-term funds are causing market volatility due to profit-taking and fears of a cyclical downturn. #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 Centralized exchanges (CEX) are racing to establish a presence in Europe and seek compliance licenses, driven primarily by the institutional benefits brought by the formal implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). This is also a strategic necessity to cope with global regulatory fragmentation and to compete for incremental markets in traditional finance. The main driving factors are concentrated in the following six dimensions: 1. Core benefit: EU "Single Passport" mechanism One license for all of Europe: Before MiCA's implementation, regulatory policies across the EU's 27 member states were highly fragmented (e.g., France's AMF, Germany's BaFin, Italy's OAM), requiring exchanges to establish entities and apply for approvals country by country, resulting in high compliance costs. Economies of scale: Under the MiCA framework, once an exchange obtains a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) license in any member state, it can use the "passport mechanism" to directly offer services to the unified large market of nearly 450 million people across the entire European Union and the European Economic Area (EEA). 2. Regulatory certainty: Avoiding legal black swans of "enforcement replacing regulation" Clear and predictable rules: Compared to some jurisdictions that have long adopted litigation enforcement and ambiguous regulatory boundaries, MiCA provides explicit provisions for crypto-asset categories (such as utility tokens, asset-referenced tokens (ART), electronic money tokens (EMT)) as well as custody, trading, and listing rules for the first time. Compliance safe harbor: Having clear compliance expectations can significantly reduce the geopolitical regulatory risks exchanges face, such as massive litigation fines or sudden business shutdowns. 3. Opening fiat currency channels $BTC $ETH have been rising continuously for a full week; can the market continue to climb?
BTC has firmly reclaimed the 80,000 mark, marking the strongest weekly gain in three years. Within just ten minutes, $225 million worth of short positions were liquidated, delivering a harsh shakeout to the bears this round.
This major rally was significantly boosted by external news. The U.S. Treasury expanded its Treasury buyback program, releasing liquidity into the market; coupled with new expectations around crypto regulatory policies, multiple positive factors resonated together. Additionally, ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows totaling nearly $2 billion, directly driving BTC from 69,000 all the way up to the current highs.
I’m not reviewing this rally after the fact—I shared my analysis and entry points in advance. BTC surged to 81,000, and Ethereum held above 2,500. The price’s ability to withstand volatility at these highs also indicates that the main bullish capital has not yet exited on a large scale. $ETH #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 The mainstream short squeeze is retreating, but the money hasn't left; it's moving to second-tier leaders. Today, $SOL is up 8.5% in one day, clearly outperforming BTC and ETH—this is a typical sector rotation: the big coins rally first, and when they can't push further, funds look for more elastic catch-up targets. Rotation itself signals a continuation of the market, but it's actually the most dangerous time for those chasing the trade: when you see it surging the most and jump in, that's often when this batch of funds is ready to find the next bag holder. My approach is to treat rotation only as a sentiment thermometer, not as a buy signal. If I really want to participate in the second tier, I wait for a pullback, volume contraction, and a clear stop-loss level, rather than chasing the intraday biggest gain line. Are you chasing the trend, or someone else's excitement? Bitcoin can rally on institutional demand without every institution buying BTC directly.
ETF inflows are surging while Strategy just raised $2B without adding a single BTC.
That changes the interesting question.
The bigger institutional shift may not be who is buying Bitcoin.
It may be how institutions are choosing to gain exposure to it.#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash I think today's Strategy announcements were one of the most bullish in recent times for the market.
They made no contribution to last week's price action
They further increased their cash reserves to $5b to accomodate convertible debt and preferred stock repurchase/ dividends (by selling MSTR ofcourse).
#BTC80KHoldOrFold #IranSanctionsOilFalls #StrategyBuildsCash Some people see $BTC breaking through 80,000 and easily assume the bull market has arrived, then recklessly rush in to go long. I believe this is inappropriate. If we only look at the price and candlesticks to analyze future trends, it’s easy to be misled in the wrong direction. We must not only look at price and candlesticks but also consider various data points. Only through comprehensive analysis can we possibly see the future direction clearly amid the market fog. I believe a major market crash is imminent. —————————————————— Let’s look at the contract data of $BTC. We can see that when $BTC price rises, its contract open interest and long-short ratio are falling simultaneously. This means many longs are taking profits at this stage. Looking at a longer timeframe, during this current upward cycle, the contract open interest and long-short ratio have sharply decreased. I find it hard not to think this rally is designed to let longs offload their positions. Under the current circumstances, I really find it difficult to go long myself. —————————————————— I believe the market is very likely to continue downward. However, we cannot rule out unexpected possibilities. If the market really surges ahead and blows out my short positions, I will immediately consider switching to long. But I don’t believe that; I don’t think my market view is wrong. I have always firmly believed in one thing: liquidity is the foundation of market rallies. A rally without liquidity is like water without a source, or duckweed without roots. #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
This news is quite interesting. On Monday, the US officially launched an "economic isolation operation" against Iran, yet international oil prices actually dropped by more than 2%. Sanctioning Iran but oil prices fell—this is indeed counterintuitive.
The US has taken a hard line this time.
The sanctions have expanded to five major areas: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. Nearly 60 Iranian-related entities and individuals have been blacklisted. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen directly stated the goal is to implement "zero loopholes," aiming to cut off every economic lifeline of Iran. Any entity laundering money for Iran will be removed from the dollar system.
But the market simply isn’t buying it.
The reason is very practical: whether the sanctions can truly block Iran’s oil exports depends on how China responds. China buys 80%-90% of Iran’s exported crude oil. This time, the US did not directly sanction China’s major banks and even gave countries a "correction period." In other words, it’s all bark and no bite.
Iran is not backing down either; an advisor to the Supreme Leader directly stated that the response will be "more resolute than ever." The Iranian rial has already collapsed to a historic low of 2,039,000 rials per US dollar.
My view is that as long as oil prices don’t really surge, inflation expectations won’t rise, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will actually lessen. For risk assets, this might not be a bad thing. Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the overall direction remains unchanged. Just manage your positions well.
This is a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
Sanctions intensify, yet oil prices fall? This itself is the most alarming signal.
The US's "economic isolation operation" against Iran is fierce—digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping are all included in secondary sanctions, and Bassent even vowed "zero leakage" enforcement. The Iranian rial has dropped to a new low of 2,039,000 to 1 USD, and the geopolitical conflict is visibly escalating.
But oil prices did not rise; instead, they fell.
Why? Because the market is calculating: will third countries cooperate? No matter how loudly the US shouts, if countries like China, Russia, and Turkey do not comply, Iranian crude can still be rerouted. Over the past two years, Iranian crude exports have operated through "gray channels," and the market is still watching whether these sanctions can truly reduce flow.
For BTC, this is actually a more complex story.
Sanction escalation usually benefits BTC—non-sovereign assets, censorship resistance, geopolitical safe haven, the logic is straightforward. But this time, the US also included digital assets in secondary sanctions, meaning compliance pressure will increase, and exchanges may tighten risk controls on addresses related to Iran. On one side, "hedging demand" pushes up; on the other, "liquidity tightening + compliance tightening" suppresses. BTC is being repriced in this situation, not simply rising.
So my view is simple: don’t treat sanctions as a simple "positive" to speculate on. The oil price drop shows the market hasn’t fully believed these sanctions will truly take effect. Gold has safe-haven support but is also waiting for signals, while BTC is caught in a squeeze of "benefiting from the non-sovereign narrative yet constrained by USD liquidity and compliance pressure."
My move? Don’t chase. Wait for oil prices to truly start reacting, wait for third countries’ stance to be clear, wait for the market to price in the actual effect of sanctions, then act. Jumping in now is betting on "news," not trading "facts."
$CL $BZ Tuesday, 2026.08.25
Yesterday, the US stock market declined, but Bitcoin and gold remained strong and rose. Bitcoin has already broken through the $80,000 mark today.
On August 24, Bitcoin ETF net inflows were $337 million. Ethereum ETF net inflows were $115 million.
The recent rise in Bitcoin and other inflation-resistant assets like gold is closely related to the current US Treasury and investment trading environment. With US debt and interest expenses continuously increasing, they need to maintain the financing capacity of the Treasury market; if long-term Treasury bonds lack buyers and yields continue to rise, policymakers may stabilize the market by expanding repurchases or using other tools. Once these operations ultimately increase dollar liquidity, Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, will become a potential beneficiary.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin surged again today, breaking through the $80,000 mark. However, the volume shrank during this rise, indicating that the bulls are clearly weakening at this level. Therefore, there is a probability that this level cannot form an effective breakthrough or hold steady. The bears are also unlikely to reignite easily, as what needed to be burned has already been burned. Additionally, some bulls targeting $80,000+ and profit-taking sales make it difficult to achieve a quick breakthrough at this level. A healthier approach would be to pull back, accumulate strength, and then surge higher. If it directly jumps to $85,000+, it is very likely to become an accelerated topping move.
The greed index shifted from panic to extreme greed in just five days. Amid the noisy crowd, it is important to maintain a calm and rational mind.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index: 83 (Extreme Greed) Everyone is shouting "Above 80k to see 100k," but I feel this wave will be slapped down by Walsh.
The group asked whether Walsh is hawkish or dovish—my answer is straightforward: he will be more hawkish than the market imagines, and he won’t give any "clear path" at all. Waiting for a framework? He’s unlikely to give you one.
Look at the current atmosphere: BTC pushed from 66k all the way to 80k without a decent pullback, shorts were liquidated for 7.2 billion, and the market is full of floating profits on longs. Retail is rushing in, KOLs are shouting "devaluation trade restarts," ETF net inflows are 1.9 billion—the whole market is betting Walsh will dovetail, betting he can’t withstand economic pressure, betting he will pivot to rate cuts before year-end.
But who is Walsh? He’s the one who cut forward guidance as soon as he took office, refusing to let the market get "comfortable." The 30-year Treasury yield has already surged above 5.3%, core service inflation is still sticky, does he dare give a clear dovish signal now? If he dares, long bonds will crash right before your eyes. The only thing he can do is "verbal hawkishness"—emphasize inflation risks, keep all options open, then muddle through with ambiguity.
Here’s the problem: the market fears "ambiguity" more than hawkishness. You say hawkish, BTC falls; you say dovish, BTC rises. But if you play Tai Chi, the market prices uncertainty as "negative"—because all the positives are priced in, any "certainty" below expectations will trigger profit-taking cascades.
So my move is completely opposite to most people—I don’t wait for the speech, I short in advance.
Around 80k, I will lightly short with a stop loss at 83k. Why not wait? Because when the speech comes out, it will either smash through directly or spike up and down to hit your stop loss before moving in a direction. If you chase then, it’s already half a beat too late. I’d rather risk a small stop loss to bet on the high-probability event that "market expectations are too full, Walsh won’t deliver."
You might say: "What if he really dovetails? BTC surges to 90k?"—then I accept the loss, I respect that. But I don’t believe a chairman who can’t even clarify his own framework can support this market that has been overextended from 66k all the way up. Too many people are on board, the vehicle is too heavy, and if Walsh just tightens the cap a little, this vehicle will flip on its own.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a die-hard bear. I just think when consensus expectations are strongest, that’s often when reversals are easiest. This Jackson Hole, I’m not betting on direction, I’m betting on "expectation divergence"—and I believe the direction of that divergence is downward.
This is my personal trading idea, not advice. Anyway, my stop loss is already set.
$BTC #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 The zone where BTC is bullish and altcoins are bearish is diverging, and the indicators are already signaling the direction. On the surface, Bitcoin looks strong, maintaining the $77,000 level, but why does the leverage structure in the derivatives market not point in the same direction? Bitcoin is continuing sideways compression around $77,000, and Ethereum is repeatedly retesting the box range between $2,400 and $2,500. Judging by price alone, the market is maintaining a relatively stable regime. However, the key inflection point of this cycle lies not in the mainnet price but in the repositioning process of the underlying derivative positions. Currently, the funding rates and basis in the futures market are showing movements disconnected from spot buying pressure, suggesting that market participants are building hedge positions within the range rather than being confident in an upward trend. - Bitcoin spot bullishness is maintained, but the cost of long positions in the futures market is not rising proportionally. This means the demand is for maintaining existing positions rather than new chase buying. - Ethereum is A man who grew from five thousand dollars to fifteen million dollars tells you, "The person who loses money is actually the one who wants to lose it themselves." After hearing this, your blood boils, and you feel like someone has finally spoken the truth. But have you ever thought: the person who said this is exactly the one who won? Today, I'm going to give you a tool—not to teach you how to trade like Sekota, but to teach you how to identify a trading creed—whether it's universal truth, or if a survivor's luck is packaged as wisdom. And I'll dig all the way to where my own knife is right where I can strike my own hand. 1. The Underlying Truth of Trading: Resisting Your Nature First, let's be clear: if you have money you can't afford to lose and expect to turn things around through trading in three months, close it now. This content will make you more anxious, not more profitable. Step away from the table and stabilize your cash flow—this isn't just politeness—it's about applying boundaries. Eddie Sekota, born in 1946, graduated from MIT in electrical engineering. In the era before personal computers existed, he used punched cards and mainframes to write the earliest commercial trading systems that could be backtested and automatically send signals. Jack Schwager wrote him into 'The Financial Genius,' and he became a legend in one battle. The widest number is: a customer's account of about $5,000 grows to over $15 million over a decade. His most famous quote was his answer when asked about the "key elements of a good trade": First, cut losses; Second, cut losses; Third, cut losses. Most people's first reaction is: Oh, stop losses, discipline, got it. But have you ever thought: a logic so precise it can be writtenAfter the previous rapid rise, BTC and ETH have entered a high-level game phase. In the coming days, the market direction may be determined not only by candlesticks but also by several important consecutive events. 1. Wednesday: GDP and PCE, repricing interest rate expectations On Wednesday, the US will release the revised Q2 GDP and July personal income and expenditure data, with PCE inflation being particularly noteworthy. Currently, there is still disagreement in the market regarding the Fed's September policy, so this data can easily impact the US dollar and US Treasury yields. If PCE continues to cool down, market expectations for the Fed to maintain a dovish stance may strengthen, which could be positive for risk assets like BTC; if inflation rises again, beware of a high-level pullback caused by a reversal in interest rate expectations. 2. NVIDIA earnings: Can AI trading continue? On the same day, NVIDIA will report earnings. NVIDIA now influences more than just one stock; it largely represents the temperature of the entire AI trading and US stock risk appetite. The issue is that market expectations are already very high. Therefore, what really matters is not "whether the performance is good or not," but whether it can continue to exceed market expectations. If AI demand and future guidance remain strong, Nasdaq risk appetite may be supported and transmitted to BTC and ETH; if earnings are good but below high expectations, be cautious of profit-taking in tech stocks. 3. Jackson Hole: The real highlight of this week In the latter half of the week, market focus will shift to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. Compared to single economic data, the market is more concerned about the FedIn the early Asian session on August 25, Bitcoin once approached the $80,000 mark, reaching a high of $79,891, the first time it has hit this level since May.
As of the morning, BTC was priced at $78,935, up 1.61% in 24 hours, with a cumulative increase of over 22% in the past week.
The total market capitalization of the crypto market increased by $474 billion in one week.
The driving force behind this rally is threefold. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen announced doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion each time to $4 billion, which temporarily lowered long-term bond yields and weakened the dollar. The effect lasted less than a day—30-year yields subsequently returned to high levels, remaining basically flat for the week. Yellen later admitted the market "overreacted a bit." But the market had already set the direction: the dollar fell nearly 1% that week, gold broke through $4,600, and Bitcoin rose more than 25% in the week. $BTC As the price surged from $62,000 to nearly $80,000, the situation for miners is also changing.
The hash price, which measures the expected revenue per unit of computing power, rose 20.4% in four days, increasing from $31.80 per PH/s on August 18 to $38.29.
Bitcoin's total network hashrate is currently about 922 EH/s, approaching the critical threshold of 1 exahash per second.
However, mining difficulty is still decreasing, having been adjusted down by 1.31% to 1.2581 million billion on August 23, only 0.7% above the 2026 low. Since the beginning of the year, mining difficulty has been reduced ten times, with about 150 EH/s of computing power still offline. Miners are increasing, but the transformation continues.
Regulatory efforts are also advancing. After meeting with crypto industry executives at the White House, Trump publicly urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The Treasury repurchase by Basent and the Trump administration's easing of crypto regulations are seen as coordinated actions under the same economic goal—to increase short-term U.S. Treasury demand by expanding the stablecoin market, alleviating fiscal pressure after the national debt surpassed $40 trillion. $BTC Against the backdrop of the national debt surpassing $40 trillion and annual interest payments approaching $1.2 trillion, stablecoins are seen as a potential source of short-term demand for U.S. Treasury bonds.
The U.S. Treasury Department also announced an expansion of secondary sanctions on Iran, including cryptocurrencies and digital assets within the scope of sanctions.
This could both drive some funds into the crypto market to evade sanctions and signal rising compliance pressure.
The $80,000 threshold is within reach, but the real determinant of direction is not this number; it is Federal Reserve Chair Powell's first public speech at Jackson Hole this Friday. Bassett failed to suppress long-term bonds, and whether Powell can provide a clear signal on the inflation path will decide if this rally continues or stalls. One is adjusting the debt maturity structure, the other is setting inflation expectations—the direction has changed, but the pace still depends on Powell. $BTC On August 18, the SEC introduced a new proposal called "Regulation Crypto Assets."
It opened two compliance financing paths for crypto projects: startup financing up to $5 million within four years, or ongoing financing up to $75 million per year.
Both tiers must comply with federal anti-fraud provisions.
It also established a safe harbor clause—once a project completes or permanently ceases "key managerial efforts" for investors, the tokens can shed their securities status and be traded without registration or lock-up restrictions.
This proposal directly responds to the stagnation of the CLARITY Act in the Senate. The probability of the CLARITY Act passing in February was 82%, but bettors on Polymarket have lowered that probability to 18% to 21%. White House crypto policy advisor Pat Witt said at the SALT conference, "If the legislative window in September fails, regulators will not wait indefinitely."
The SEC acted before Congress. There will be a 60-day public comment period before the final version can be set. Hester Peirce plans to step down in November 2026. Whether the rule can be finalized before she leaves will determine if this compliance channel opens in 2027 or if it will take longer. $BTC We might think: what if I buy now and BTC drops back to 58,000? A 20% drop could lead to 30%, 40%... This is a common "fear of heights delusion" in right-side trading. Actually, right-side buying usually requires setting a stop-loss point in advance; this is determined comprehensively based on your technical indicators, actual position, and risk preference. For example, I personally use STH-RP as an important reference. From historical data, in the latter half of a bear market, as long as STH-RP is broken through, there is a high probability of a small trend emerging. Afterwards, if the price retests STH-RP without breaking it, the trend continues. If it breaks below, the trend ends. Currently, STH-RP is around $70,000 (dynamic). So if BTC drops back to 70k, caution is needed; if the daily level breaks below, stop-loss should be triggered. Therefore, theoretically, the stop-loss range for right-side positions is roughly around -10%, definitely not waiting until -25% or more to make a decision. Of course, if BTC fluctuates around STH-RP, we will be worn down back and forth — this depends on how you interpret it. In my view, wear and tear in trading is normal, even necessary. Because I don't want to miss a big trend just to avoid wear and tear. After Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000, the market is prone to two extreme views: one says a new bull market is confirmed, the other says this is just a short rebound after shorts were crushed. My view lies between the two — this rally is not just emotional speculation, but whether it can turn into a true trend reversal is now entering the most critical verification stage. On August 25 Beijing time, BTC briefly touched about $81,200, a new high in over three months, with an August cumulative increase of about 28%. In the previous week, it rose about 22.7%, marking the largest single-week dollar gain in history. More notably, last week the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $1.92 billion, while over $4 billion in short positions were liquidated during the rapid rise. These three figures represent three completely different forces: ETF inflows are real spot demand; short liquidations are forced buybacks; the weakening dollar and falling long-term US Treasury yields improved the overall funding environment for risk assets. The simultaneous presence of these three forces pushed BTC quickly from above $60,000 to over $80,000. Therefore, I do not agree with attributing the rise entirely to one person's statement. Speeches can ignite sentiment but cannot alone create sustained buying. The real value of this rally lies in the return of ETF funds and the improvement in macro liquidity expectations. It is more solid than simply relying on high leverage to push prices up. However, I will not immediately declare the bull market is back just because it broke $80,000. Short liquidations are a one-time fuel and will not reoccur daily after being cleared; $OL I think this is a project that has already died, with only a robot deployed for continuously selling tokens. The team has already disbanded.#美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？
The impact on us is twofold.
Short-term sentiment has already been digested. Oil prices have fallen, short-term inflation expectations have cooled down, which gives risk assets a breather. BTC broke through 80000 today, which is somewhat related to this news.
Medium-term uncertainty remains. Digital assets being included in secondary sanctions means crypto trading and on-chain settlements might be targeted. If third countries cooperate in enforcement, liquidity in the crypto market could be indirectly affected.
Here’s my take.
This round of sanctions is a "peak benefit" style pullback for oil prices in the short term, but the medium to long term depends on enforcement strength and Iran’s countermeasures. Including digital assets in secondary sanctions is a new variable—previously sanctions mainly targeted traditional finance, now on-chain settlements are also under scrutiny.
BTC is currently fluctuating; the sanctions landing haven’t triggered a surge in oil prices, and short-term sentiment is relatively stable. But medium-term uncertainty remains, and the CLARITY Act vote on September 15 is the real turning point.
What do you all think?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC brothers, this week's market depends on Wednesday!
At 8:30 PM on August 26, the US July core PCE data will be released. Previously, CPI met expectations, PPI was below expectations, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, and retail sales saw the largest drop in over a year—all signals of cooling. PCE, as the Fed's most important inflation indicator, is the final piece to verify this "inflation cooling + weak employment + consumption brake" puzzle. The market currently expects core PCE annual rate at 3.3% and monthly rate at 0.2%.
Three scenarios:
$ETH 📈 PCE higher than expected → inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, September rate hike probability rises. BTC and ETH suffer, risk assets broadly pressured.
$ZEC 📉 PCE lower than expected → forms a "five consecutive declines" dovish loop, market may price in rate cuts early. Major market violently rebounds, altcoins celebrate.
📊 Meets expectations → inflation remains stuck at a high 3.3%, well above the 2% target. Rate hike expectations fluctuate slightly, choppy market, short-term quick in and out.
Additionally, this Friday, Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole symposium. He has rarely given forward guidance since taking office; this speech is a real policy signal window. If hawkish signals are released, combined with an above-expectation PCE, the market could be hit doubly.
Focus on BTC, ETH market trends; AI sector linked to Nvidia earnings; RWA sector sensitive to macro interest rates. It is recommended to control positions before the data release, as volatility will be high. #美启动对伊经济孤立，油价为何回落？ 把比特币从一个钱包转到另一个钱包，没有卖出、没有盈利，却可能因为“移动了资产”产生一笔税，这就是伊利诺伊州最新法律争议最值得注意的地方。8 月 21 日，Blockchain Association 与 Crypto Council for Innovation 在州法院起诉，要求阻止《数字资产税法》实施；Bloomberg Law 24 日跟进确认，这是针对该法的又一起行业挑战。 法条写得很具体：从 2027 年 1 月 1 日起，符合条件的数字资产经纪商要对伊利诺伊州客户接受的数字资产交易、转移或托管活动，按所涉资产价值的 0.2% 征税。这里的计税基础不是利润，也不只是服务费，而可能是整笔资产的价值。原告据此主张，传统股票、债券或现金的类似活动没有同等负担，这种按底层技术区分的做法违反美国与州宪法及联邦《互联网免税法》。这些都是诉讼主张，不是法院已经认定的结论。 我的判断是，0.2% 看起来很小，真正的冲击却来自“次数乘数”。一笔资产如果在交易平台、托管钱包和个人地址之间多次移动，税负可能重复出现；平台还要识别客户位置、计算资产价值、代扣并保存记录。于是市场传导并非直接决定币价，Global tech stocks have cooled noticeably recently, but what truly deserves attention is not "how much they have fallen," but what exactly they are trading during this pullback. On August 24, the Nasdaq index fell 0.76%, and Nvidia fell 2.9%; The semiconductor sector faced even more pronounced pressure, with SanDisk and Seagate both down about 6.5%, Micron down 5.8%, and Mywell down 3.3%. Previously, on August 18, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 5% in a single day, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33%. Meanwhile, Asian tech stocks were also dragged down, with semiconductor sectors in markets such as South Korea and Japan weakening simultaneously. So here's the question: Are global tech stocks "catching the enemy in reverse," or is the AI market beginning to enter a valuation correction? 1. This Decline Did Not Suddenly Break Fundamentals The biggest concern in the market right now is not the disappearance of AI demand, but a more realistic question: With so much money invested by AI companies, how much can they actually earn back in the future? In the past, the market's valuation of the AI industry chain was based on a very optimistic expectation: continuous expansion of data centers, rapid growth in chip demand, and increasing corporate capital expenditures. But as long-term Treasury yields remained high, the market began to recalculate the value of these future earnings. Simply put, the same $10 billion in future profits is more valuable in a low interest rate environment; The higher the interest rate, the lower its discounted value today is. So this tech stock pullback feels more like a simultaneous repricing of valuations and funding costs, rather than a sudden disappearance of the AI industry logic. 2. The real watershed was Nvidia's financial report. Currently, global tech stocks are the bestHow long does it take to go from a $9.5 billion loss to a $4.7 billion profit? Strategy only took one week.
With $BTC rapidly rebounding, Strategy's position went from an unrealized loss of over $9.5 billion to an unrealized gain of over $4.7 billion within a week, a book value change of nearly $14.2 billion.
But note that the $4.7 billion is not Strategy's "earned" operating profit.
Strategy's core business did not suddenly explode; what truly changed the financial statements was the price of Bitcoin.
Every step up or down in BTC is directly reflected in the company's net assets through its massive holdings.
Saylor recently posted "The Bitcoin Reformation," signaling that he is no longer satisfied with packaging BTC as a corporate reserve asset but is trying to elevate it to a monetary system reform.
However, note that this model works smoothly when prices rise: the stock price gains a premium, the company continues to raise funds to buy coins, and increased holdings further strengthen market expectations.
Once BTC weakens, book losses, stock price pullbacks, and financing pressure will all occur simultaneously.
Strategy has now evolved into a BTC shadow asset with leveraged financing.
The $14.2 billion reversal proves its resilience but does not eliminate risk.
What truly deserves attention is whether this "financing-to-buy-coin machine" can continue to operate after Strategy's stock price premium narrows.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 AI is stealing electricity from Bitcoin, but miners have found a more profitable business
Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to 81,000, rising 26% in a week. Many attribute this to ETF inflows and a weaker dollar. But there's a deeper logic no one talks about—AI and Bitcoin are competing for the same thing: electricity and computing power.
Gold bull Peter Schiff recently posted on X that AI isn't helping Bitcoin; it's competing with Bitcoin for resources. Money, electricity, data centers—there's only so much, and if AI takes more, Bitcoin gets less.
This sounds reasonable, but the reality is completely the opposite—miners are making money from AI.
IREN signed a $9.7 billion AI cloud infrastructure deal with Microsoft. TeraWulf signed about a $19 billion computing power contract with Anthropic. Core Scientific is also providing high-performance computing for CoreWeave. These companies used to survive by mining Bitcoin, but now they earn more from AI computing power than from mining.
Even more aggressively, they are hoarding Bitcoin with the money earned from AI.
So the "competition" Schiff mentioned does exist, but Bitcoin hasn't lost—miners use the cash earned from AI to keep buying Bitcoin and expanding computing power. Both sides are growing; they compete, but in the end, the winners are the same group of people.
What's interesting here is that when two industries start competing for the same resources, it often means both industries have reached a critical point.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE 0.0926, +2.79%. BTC has risen to 80,000, but DOGE has only increased by less than 3%—this thermometer is a bit sluggish.
24h range 0.0897-0.0929, volume 435 million, not cold but not hot either. RSI is around 60, the fear and greed index should be following BTC up to 80. Technical analysis in plain language: the 50-day EMA (0.074-0.075) is holding steady, but the 200-day EMA (0.095-0.100) is still pressing down from above, so the mid-term bull trend is not confirmed.
BTC rose 20% in a week, how much did DOGE rise? Just over 10%. Why? Because DOGE's engine is not institutional funds, but retail sentiment. This BTC rally is driven by ETFs and Treasury buybacks, an institutional bull market; retail investors haven't entered on a large scale yet, so DOGE naturally can't jump.
Elon Musk hasn't tweeted, no new ETF catalysts, it's all dependent on the overall market mood. The biggest trap with this coin is "thinking you understand it because it went up"—when BTC really pulls back, DOGE falls faster than anyone.
DOGE is the sentiment thermometer among altcoins, don't treat it as your main holding. Wait until BTC stabilizes at 80,000 and retail FOMO sentiment kicks in, then DOGE might catch up. Now at 0.093, above is 0.10, a psychological barrier plus the 200-day line double resistance, so the room to run is limited. Keep your position under 5%, don't be greedy. What Jackson Hole fears most this time is not hawkishness
but continued ambiguity. The market is no longer simply waiting for a "rate hike or not" statement, but for Walsh to clarify the Fed's reaction function: whether it fears inflation more or a slowdown in growth; whether it focuses on data or bond market stress.
If the speech is too vague, the bond market will fill in the answers itself, and the stock market will start guessing wildly. Now long bonds, the dollar, gold, and BTC are all moving, indicating that everyone is trading the same thing: policy credibility.
I think the value of this speech lies not in handing out favors to risk assets, but in telling the market which lines cannot be crossed. Without clear boundaries, all rebounds easily turn into temporarily borrowed courage
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Bitcoin has surpassed $80,000 again after more than three months.
In the past week, it surged over 24% from around $63k, marking one of the strongest weekly performances in nearly three years. The main drivers:
1. The U.S. Treasury increased long-term bond repurchases, lowering long-term yields, triggering currency depreciation trades, with gold and BTC strengthening simultaneously.
2. Over $3 billion in short liquidations accelerated the breakout.
3. Spot ETFs saw nearly $2 billion in net inflows last week, with institutions buying in with real money.
4. Regulatory expectations have marginally improved.
This rally shows clear spot market characteristics, with futures open interest actually declining, indicating it’s not purely driven by leverage.
However, the market has entered an overbought zone; the quality of the next correction will determine whether the upward momentum can truly expand. If $76k–$78k can hold effectively, the structure will be healthier.
ETH has performed even stronger this round (up about 30% weekly), with an ETH/BTC golden cross occurring.
When price volatility increases, the real risks often lie not in the market itself but in how holdings are managed. Single points of failure, identity mapping, device failures, update dependencies... these are most easily overlooked during euphoric times.
Markets can move fast, but security boundaries usually do not.
(Data as of 2026-08-25)