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💎 ETH/USDT Technical Outlook
Current Price: $1,864.97
Ethereum is trading in a key decision zone after pulling back from the recent high of $1,981.26. The market is testing short-term support while buyers and sellers battle for the next move.
📊 Key Levels
- 🟢 Support: $1,850
- 🔴 Resistance: $1,875–$1,895 (MA cluster)
- 🎯 Bullish Targets: $1,920 → $1,980 → $2,000
- ⚠️ Bearish Target: $1,800, with stronger support around $1,780
Bullish Case: A daily close above $1,895 could trigger fresh momentum toward $1,920 and potentially a retest of $1,980+.
Bearish Case: Losing $1,850 may open the door for a pullback toward the $1,800 psychological level.
💡 Bottom Line: ETH remains in a consolidation phase. The next breakout or breakdown from this range is likely to determine the short-term trend.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).
#ETH #Ethereum #Crypto #CryptoTrading #ETHUSDT #TechnicalAnalysis #Altcoins #Trading$HOME Today saw a major pullback. Many people may be shorting now, thinking the coin is about to fall to around $0.004. But I don't think so. I think this coin is only experiencing a correction right now, and it's very likely to rise again in the future. So, I just went to do a lot of this coin. Why do I think so? To answer this question, we need to look at some of its data. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that in the past few hours, its contract open interest and the long-short ratio have risen in tandem. This situation generally indicates that there is capital willing to go long at this level. Let's look at the data from a longer period. It can be seen that earlier today, its open interest began to stabilize and started to gradually rise after eight or nine o'clock. Combining this with its candlesticks, we can infer the following situation. During $HOME's decline, continuous shorts turning into bulls indicate that funds do not believe the coin will end like this. During the stable price of $HOME, there are continuous long entries entering to go long, indicating that under current circumstances, capital is optimistic about $HOME at this price level. In May this year, $HOME also experienced a price increase, and the situation then is very similar to now. You can see that the entire decline process is not much different, but the rise process is somewhat different—this time it's fasterFundamental Research Report $GMX / GMX (DeFi) $3.20
Straight to the point: GMX ($GMX) overall score 50/100, rating narrative over execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture is implemented.
Fundamental breakdown: GMX (token $GMX), DeFi sector. Focuses on Arbitrum perpetual DEX. Competitors include DYDX, SNX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, user data is not controlled by users. On-chain trustless trading fees are lower, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction size $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing see PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales see whitepaper, release schedule and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration see API/SDK access evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap, GMX $3.00B, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. FDV, GMX $4.20B, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Annual revenue, GMX $2.00M, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users, GMX undisclosed, DYDX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation, circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final judgment: fundamentals solid (score 50/100). Token value capture implemented (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to watch: short-term large unlock sell-off, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key metrics to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. Core financial indicators deviating more than 30% require reassessment.
That's all for now, share your thoughts in the comments.
#FundamentalResearch #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit📊 The yen remains an important macro signal for Bitcoin.
A stronger yen could continue acting as a headwind for $BTC.
Reports suggest the U.S. Treasury has been selling euros to buy yen, a move that may reduce the bullish case built around a weaker U.S. dollar while keeping concerns about a potential carry-trade unwind in focus.
If funding conditions tighten and investors continue reducing leverage, risk assets—including Bitcoin—could remain vulnerable to short-term volatility.
That said, macro factors are only one piece of the puzzle. ETF flows, liquidity conditions, and institutional demand will also play a major role in determining Bitcoin's next direction.
For now, it's another reminder that crypto isn't trading in isolation—global macro still matters.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #KoreaChipSelloff The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.27%, its highest since 2007.
When "risk-free" money pays north of 5%, every risk asset, including crypto, has to earn its place all over again.
JPMorgan just pulled its Fed hike call forward from H2 2027 to this December, and nudged its end-2026 yield targets higher, with the 10-year now seen near 4.85% (from 4.70%) and the 30-year near 5.40% (from 5.20%).
The Fed held in July, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, and the market is now pricing one as soon as September.
Here's what most headlines miss. This is not just about the Fed. The long end is climbing because investors are demanding a bigger term premium for US fiscal risk, with expected fiscal expansion widening the deficit further, plus a wave of Big Tech issuing their own bonds soaking up the same dollars. That is a slower, stickier force than any single rate decision.
Two things pull the other way:
· US-Iran talks knocked oil down over 7% intraday, cooling the biggest inflation driver
· The US-Japan yen intervention adds a twist, since Japan selling Treasuries to fund it could push yields even higher
Now the part that matters for us. Even with bonds paying 5%+, crypto has not folded. BTC is holding near $63K, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged four straight days of inflows, roughly $132M on Friday alone. The catch: BTC is still below its major moving averages, and analysts see $65K to $70K as the resistance zone it needs to reclaim to confirm any real reversal.
So the tug-of-war is playing out live:
· "Risk-free" yields pulling capital toward cash and bonds
· ETF demand quietly pulling it back into BTC
The long end sits right around 5.3%, a level many analysts now treat as the valuation anchor for risk assets this month, BTC included.
When "risk-free" bonds pay 5%+, how are you thinking about the balance between cash, yield, and crypto right now?
#30YrYieldTopOrStart Daily Key Briefing | August 3, 2026 As of the morning of August 3, Beijing time, the main theme in the market was not simply a "rebound in risk appetite," but rather three forces pulling simultaneously: crypto assets remained oscillating at low levels, AI capital spending continued to expand, but security and regulatory risks were rapidly rising; U.S. stocks have entered a highly volatile phase of earnings reports, interest rates, and geopolitical pricing together. 1. BTC holds at $63,000, but no clear breakout signal has yet to appear. Fact: Bitcoin is currently around $63,253, with an intraday range of around $62,751–$63,697; ETH is about $1,625. BTC has risen slightly from the previous trading point but remains within a recent range of volatility. Why it matters: BTC has not yet shown a trending rise due to a US stock rebound or improved macro expectations, indicating that current incremental funds remain cautious. ETH is relatively weaker, which also means the market has not yet entered a fully almo-risk-appetite phase. Action points: The current time is better to observe rather than chase gains on a one-day rebound. The key focus is on whether BTC can break through recent highs with increased volume, and whether ETH/BTC will stop falling and rebound. Judgment: In the short term, this is a volatile recovery and cannot be defined as the start of a new bull market. 2. Cold wallet attacks expand, affecting about 4,500 addresses with losses approaching $89 million Fact: An attack targeting Coldcard-related Bitcoin cold wallet users has spread to about 4,500 addresses, with estimated losses close to $89 million. Event#30-year US Treasury Bonds, Top or New Starting Point?
The 30-year US Treasury yield has stabilized above 5%, reaching a nearly 19-year high, causing a complete split in the market: one side believes the oversold correction is complete and the top is near; the other side judges that fiscal deficits and sticky inflation will drive a new upward wave.
First, clarify the core driver of the rise
It's not simply a game of Fed rate hikes; the core is the continuous rise in term premium. Massive US debt supply, geopolitics pushing energy inflation, and market concerns about persistent long-term inflation require higher compensation for investors to hold long-term bonds.
Two mainstream logical scenarios
Bullish on yields (new starting point camp)
Fiscal large-scale bond issuance continues, supply pressure is long-term; oil price fluctuations disturb inflation expectations, delaying rate cut expectations. As long as there is no clear deflation signal, long-term bond yields are easier to rise than fall, continuously suppressing high-valuation growth assets.
Bearish on yields (top approaching camp)
Rapid yield increases have already tightened financial conditions passively; sustained high levels will gradually drag down the economy. Once employment and consumption data weaken, funds will flow into long bonds for safety, leading to a phased yield decline.
Personal independent view
Cannot determine a trend turning point for now; currently in a high-level oscillation and game zone.
Key dividing signal: 5.3%
A valid breakthrough means a new upward wave begins, with the Nasdaq and crypto assets under continuous pressure;
A pullback after a rise and failure to hold above 5.2% likely triggers a phased correction, providing a window for risk asset sentiment recovery.
Mapping to the crypto market:
BTC and ETH are long-duration risk assets, with their performance highly tied to long-end interest rates.
In a continuously rising yield environment, avoid heavy positions betting on a bullish rebound; only when yields trend downward can a large-scale bull market be established.
Practical approach:
Do not prematurely bet on the top or short the bond market; wait for key levels to choose direction. In the short term, respond with a range-bound mindset; chasing rallies or selling off carries very high risk. Self-custody dreams shattered?
A firmware vulnerability in the Coldcard hardware wallet was exploited, draining 1,082.65 BTC from 1,196 addresses within 41 minutes, worth over $70 million, with subsequent losses expanding to $88 million. The root cause of the vulnerability was a firmware integration error from March 2021.
The impact of this incident goes far beyond the amount itself. Cold wallets are the last line of defense for self-custody, and now even that line has been breached. It is foreseeable that in the short term, the narrative around centralized custody will resurge, and institutional solutions like Coinbase Custody will be repriced.
#Coldcard安全事件升级，第四波攻击预警 To gauge the quality of the rebound, I have a simple method: check if altcoins are following along. Since $BTC bounced back from around 63,000 these past two days, among the major coins only $SOL has shown some strength, while the vast majority of altcoins have stayed flat—this indicates that funds in the market have not shown signs of "mainstream profits rotating downwards"; money is just defending within the mainstream, and no one dares to increase exposure to higher-risk assets. A true broad rally lights up one hotspot after another; the current structure of a solo mainstream rally with altcoins lying flat looks more like a weak rebound rather than a trend reversal. Protect your ammo, don’t chase altcoins at this level. #AMZN50BForOpenAI
As the lantern illuminated the thirty-meter-deep mudbrick ruins of Mesopotamia, I caught a whiff of the same corrosive scent found in Amazon's latest financial report.
Fifty billion dollars, buried in three installments into Ultraman's oracle black box—this is no ordinary modern venture capital, but the most fanatical treasury gamble of the ancient Ptolemaic dynasty. Bulls clutching the clay tablet certificates cheered, pointing out that this deal locks in hundreds of billions in computing power cloud tributes over the next eight years, as if they saw an endless stream of incense oil and gold flowing into the temple; but flipping to the fine print on the back of the tablet, the bears were already sneering: the preferred stock contract only takes effect at IPO or liquidation.
In this financial archaeology spanning thousands of years, bulls and bears alternate with historical rhythm, rhyming the same verses. When massive future orders are used as collateral for present value, traditional financial mapping tools lose their magnetic poles, and even the expedition team's compass malfunctioning is expected. This is not pure industrial expansion but an extremely sophisticated temple fiefdom.
The old empires are also stirring in the shadows. The US stock token $XIBM showed strange correlated volatility after this deal landed—those century-old ecosystems that once ruled last century's computing civilization are re-evaluating the true gold content of modern digital power with the oldest logic. When the new elites build the heavenly path with leverage and forward contracts, certificates of old physical assets become safe harbors for capital fleeing illusory risks.
Is this a great inaugural sacrifice or a last hurrah of an inflated bubble? The answer hinges entirely on whether those ethereal cloud orders can truly convert into real imperial taxes in gold and silver. If future computing power demand cannot be realized as tangible flesh and blood, this ostentatious temple built on preferred stock and forward promises will ultimately trigger an industry-wide "tomb collapse."
Every civilization addicted to exchanging paper promises for real treasury funds invariably bears a modern "mummy's curse"—those funds locked in gold can only break through this cold pyramid sarcophagus when a true flood of liquid capital arrives.
When priests start paying for the empty city strategy with future tributes, the countdown to collapse has long been engraved on the temple's cornerstone. The AI community dropped a big one today: MiniMax has open-sourced a new generation multimodal video model H3, capable of generating up to 15-second 2K videos with native stereo sound, and it's fully open source. Why should crypto players take a look? Because every leap in open-source large model capabilities inevitably highlights a problem — what exactly do those "AI + Crypto" tokens with valuations often in the billions offer that open-source models can't? True AI capabilities are rapidly becoming democratized and free, yet AI concept tokens' valuations rely purely on narrative. This divergence is something to watch.The crosshair is already pressed against Samsung's K-line, yet my finger has loosened from the trigger. The first shot on the battlefield is never a signal to hunt but a decoy—KOSPI plunges 5% in a single day, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both swallow an 8% drop simultaneously. In ballistics, this is called "coaxial deviation," where two bullet impact points are less than half a mil apart, indicating the same hand is adjusting the wind direction.
I adjusted the focal plane of the scope. The 14% intraday surge on July 31 and Hynix's 28% explosion—doesn't it look like a test shot? First, use tracer rounds to mark the trajectory, then make snipers mistakenly believe there is a permanent firing point on the high ground. Now the "emergency powers" rumor drifting from the Han River—cutting single-stock leveraged ETF multiples to 1.5x, setting position limits, and even creating simulated trading rules—sounds like a battlefield commander clearing observation posts, afraid too many will see the enemy's real armored formations.
The real ambush isn't in the green barrage of KOSPI but on the long-term scale. Nomura raised Samsung's profit forecast for 2028 to 770 trillion KRW, while Bank of America said, "The current pricing seals the downside but not the upside"—a battlefield term I'm very familiar with: when you can't find better cover, the safest spot is the center of the shell crater. Extending the demand curve to 2028 means locking a target in the scope that won't move for five years. Yet Roundhill's DRAM fund cut $432 million of Samsung's position and turned to increase CXMT—someone is changing firing positions amid the most chaotic battle.
This brings me back to my old trade. Six hundred meters away, wind speed level three, drifting left, the target's chest exposing half a palm's width. You measure the distance, load the ammo, adjust the scope's elevation, then realize the target is actually a camouflaged armor plate. The truly lethal factor isn't that shot but the position you expose after firing. So I push the $XSNDK magazine into the chamber but don't chamber a round—waiting, calculating price fluctuations with heartbeats for every rifling groove, measuring the leveraged ETF's limit multiples in the gaps between breaths. Those shouting "emergency powers" are merely clearing the firing lanes for the next ambush.
When everyone's scope is chasing Hynix's 28%, I smell burning rubber—that's the earliest ambush tank tracks. Now is definitely not the time to pull the trigger. 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 3)
According to liquidation data, the bulls have been mercilessly crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour is about $1551.43
Long position liquidations about $1551.43
Short position liquidations about $0
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours is about $9660.37
Long position liquidations about $9540.71
Short position liquidations about $119.65
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours is about $28,300
Long position liquidations about $26,800
Short position liquidations about $1531.46
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours is about $43,200
Long position liquidations about $39,500
Short position liquidations about $3666.51
From the $LAB liquidation data, long position liquidations monopolize the entire 1-hour period, shorts are zero, a flash strike killing longs at the start; in 4 hours, long liquidations crush shorts, longs are 80 times shorts, a full outbreak of killing longs; the 12-hour long advantage continues, ratio rises to 17.5 times, killing longs throughout short and medium cycles; 24-hour long liquidations reach $39,500, 10.8 times shorts, dog whales have completed a full-cycle slaughter of longs on LAB—short, medium, and long cycle longs are all targeted and blasted, shorts' only resistance slightly strengthens in the long cycle but is insignificant, cumulative liquidations exceed $40,000. Everyone control your positions well, don’t get harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 3
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: the reset of the global asset pricing anchor and the intense swing of market confidence—the bond market punishing the Fed, the forex market jointly resisting trends, and the stock market rebounding to the limit under policy stimulus.
📈 30-Year US Treasury: Top or New Starting Point?
It may not be the end yet.
On July 29, the Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the 9-3 vote revealed internal division—three regional Fed presidents advocated rate hikes, the first time since 2016. More importantly, Chair Powell withdrew forward guidance, completely disrupting market expectations.
Three forces driving long bond yields soaring:
· Fed credibility damaged: senior observers bluntly say "Powell’s messaging was unclear, bond market reacted mercilessly"
· Side effects of US-Japan joint intervention: may require selling or pledging US Treasuries for liquidity
· US-Iran conflict pushing inflation expectations: high oil prices
The 30-year yield has surged to 5.27%, a new high since 2007. JPMorgan raised the 30-year target to 5.4%; options market bets on breaking 5.4% before August 21. Brandywine fund manager said bluntly: "Long-end investors don’t believe his inflation-fighting narrative."
💴 US and Japan Confirm Joint Currency Intervention: First Time in 15 Years
On August 3, US and Japan Treasury simultaneously confirmed joint yen purchases on July 31. This is the first joint intervention since 2011, and the first yen purchase since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Japan’s Finance Minister clearly stated: "We will not hesitate to further intervene jointly in the future."
After intervention, yen rose to the 156 yen per dollar range. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said "effectively curbed disorderly yen fluctuations," Trump said "this reflects friendship and benefits the world economy." The last time they joined forces like this was during the Asian financial crisis—the forex market has entered crisis response mode.
📉 KOSPI Intraday Surge 14%: Policy-Driven Extreme Rebound
On July 31, KOSPI closed with a surge of 17.91%, the largest single-day gain in history. The South Korean government announced a 20 trillion won (13.9 billion USD) injection into the sovereign wealth fund for AI investment; SK Group chairman unusually directly bought SK Hynix shares; combined with US-Japan joint intervention boosting the won.
But on August 3, KOSPI opened down 3.6%, intraday drop widened to 4.52%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 7.8% and 7.5% respectively. A day surging 18%, next day dropping over 4%, volatility in the Korean stock market has moved from "extreme" to "disorderly."
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core picture of the global market in early August 2026: the bond market punishing Fed hesitation, the forex market jointly resisting trends, and the stock market rebounding to the limit under policy stimulus then quickly giving back gains. The 30-year US Treasury yield stands at 5.27%, US and Japan jointly intervene in forex, KOSPI surges 18% in one day—none of these are normal. When all three markets simultaneously show "abnormal" volatility, the old order is collapsing, the new pricing system is not yet established, and the chaos in between is the only certainty now. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
#美日确认联合购汇
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%，创历史最大单日涨幅 How to view the $BTC market in August? Rise first, then fall, perhaps this has already become the market consensus?
Currently, the biggest issue in the market is not negative news, but the lack of new driving forces.
The clear legislation that the market is focusing on has seen a significant reduction in short-term expectations for implementation; the market has actually priced in this outcome in advance. Even if it ultimately does not pass, it is more like an expected message, making it difficult to trigger large-scale panic. $GIGGLE
Looking back from July to now, BTC’s overall volatility has been very limited, with the price remaining in a sideways range. There has been no large-scale capital outflow, nor obvious new capital inflow; the market has entered a typical phase of balance between bulls and bears.
Previously, the market worried that changes in Japanese policy would trigger carry trade capital withdrawal, leading to risk asset sell-offs, but so far this risk has not materialized. $BEAT
At the same time, institutions have not shown obvious selling pressure, and overall market liquidity remains stable. Although rising U.S. Treasury yields exert some pressure on BTC, the greater impact is on the speed of new capital entering, without causing large-scale sell-offs.
So the core contradiction now is very clear:
It’s not about whether the market wants to fall, but the lack of a catalyst to break the balance.
From a long-term cycle perspective, every BTC correction has its own rhythm; real major moves usually do not start directly but first complete a shakeout.
Personally, I lean toward a rebound in August to attract market sentiment warming up, followed by a retest after hitting key resistance areas.
Currently, the focus is on the resistance near the 200-day moving average, which is likely to become an important target for this rebound.
Short-term bullish rebound, medium-term still cautious.
Before the market confirms a breakout, don’t rush to chase longs, nor blindly short; wait for capital to truly choose a direction.
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%，创历史最大单日涨幅 Here's a very practical options perspective near expiration: max pain, which is the price where most options expire worthless and sellers incur the least loss. $BTC has been oscillating around 63,000 these days, exactly pressing on the max pain zone of the near-month contracts — this is not a coincidence. Market makers hedge their positions near settlement, naturally pulling the spot price toward this level. So this kind of narrow, indecisive fluctuation you see is likely not a lack of direction but being magnetically held. Once settlement passes, the direction has a chance to be released. Watch the positions to tell the story.Guys, ZAMA dropped 6 points today, current price $048. After falling from the late July high of 0.066, the cumulative drawdown has reached 27%. On July 23, news from Confidential RFQ fermented, with the price rising from 0.035 to 0.066, nearly doubling in two days. At that time, the community generally believed that the FHE leader was undergoing a value revaluation, with many seeing 0.1. In just half a month, the market reversed, with prices falling back to 0.048. Those chasing high at the high were stuck, and bottom-fishing funds were waiting for signs of stabilization. The core issue of the market is not technical, but the ongoing pressure on the token supply structure: total supply of 11 billion, currently only 2.2 billion in circulation, with 20% of circulating supply, and the remaining tokens are unlocked in batches over a long period. The first unlocking round was completed on August 2, and new tokens have continued to enter the market every month, averaging about 4.06 million new tokens per day, continuously released until 2030. Team, angel, and institutional tokens have a one-year cliff period, followed by linear unlocking over several years, entering a large-scale release cycle starting February 2027. There is no need to wait for a one-time lock-up; long-term continuous supply dilution will always suppress the valuation ceiling. Objectively speaking, the Confidential RFQ protocol has a differentiated advantage, focusing on on-chain institutional privacy dark pool transactions. 100% of the protocol's fees are used for token buyback and burn (currently in private testing, with official public beta in September). The project technical team is solid, with a narrative in the track#30-year US Treasury, a peak or a new starting point?
The 30Y US Treasury yield surged past 5.2%, not a peak, but the start of the “era of expensive money”? Many see the 30-year Treasury yield breaking 5.2%, hitting a new high since 2007, and their first reaction is “too expensive, it will fall back sooner or later.” But the more I look, the more I feel: this time is different, 5% may not be the ceiling but the lower edge of a new range. Here are three points:
1) The Fed is no longer the core driver of long-end pricing. With Waller hawkish + fewer meetings + no bailout promises, the market itself is pricing in “uncertainty premium,” and the long end is no longer listening for rate cuts but for fiscal policy and inflation.
2) AI infrastructure + reindustrialization + defense + massive US debt supply—four black holes simultaneously absorbing capital. Goldman Sachs directly calls this the “hungriest capital cycle in history,” money is insufficient, so capital costs must remain high long-term.
3) JPMorgan raised its year-end 30Y target to 5.4%, and a market survey shows 57% expect it to break 5% by year-end. This is not panic buying but a repricing that “inflation is not dead.”
What does this mean for crypto?
Long-end rates won’t come down → tight dollar liquidity → risk asset valuations under pressure, making it harder for BTC to run an independent bull market, but “high rates + credit anxiety” in turn prolong BTC’s narrative as a “non-sovereign asset.” $BTC is not simply inversely correlated with Treasuries; it’s competing with the “real cost of capital.”
My stance is straightforward: the 30Y Treasury is not at the top now, it’s the starting line for the second leg up. There may be short-term technical pullbacks, but don’t dream below 4.5%, 5.5% is the next stop.
Do you believe it will “return to the 3% era,” or accept that “5% is the new normal”?Let's talk about a major ongoing narrative. South Korea's semiconductor exports have surged nearly 180% year-on-year, iPhone is rumored to raise prices due to memory shortages, and storage giants are operating at full capacity — AI has pushed the upstream hardware shortage all the way to the consumer end. What does this super cycle chain have to do with crypto? Two points: first, it has drawn money chasing "real performance" out of the market, making it harder for purely narrative assets like $BTC to gain incremental inflows in the short term; second, the long-term shortage in computing power/storage benefits sectors like DePIN and decentralized computing power that have real hardware support. Don't just focus on coin prices; where the money flows is the key. Protect your ammunition.$BEAT BEAT is currently at this position, and personally, I think it's better not to rush into going long in the short term.
The recent unlock just finished, and those over 20 million tokens haven't been fully absorbed yet, so selling pressure remains. The frequent dumps recently are because of this. If it can't hold around 3, it might test the 2.5-2.8 range below. The strong resistance is just above 4, and if it can't break through, don't expect an immediate rally.
There is some burning, about 800,000 to 900,000 per week, but the unlocking volume is much larger, so they don't balance out quickly. If the project can boost income later and increase burning accordingly, there might be a chance mid-term. It's not at that stage yet.
So, I lean slightly bearish or just watch for now. If you really want to act, you can lightly short around 4.2-4.5 with a tight stop loss. For bottom fishing, wait for a real dump before considering it; don't catch a falling knife now.
This coin is very volatile, keep your position light, and don't overtrade.Looking at a divergence across assets. South Korea's semiconductor exports surged nearly 180% year-on-year in July, Goldman Sachs raised the target price for Samsung, the memory supercycle is being talked about loudly, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is also rebounding. But during the same period, $BTC is still stuck in the 63,000 range, and $ETH is the weakest leg among the major ones. Risk-on money clearly prefers to buy AI hardware with real performance support rather than purely narrative assets like crypto. When the correlation between traditional tech and crypto weakens, it often indicates that incremental funds are being selective. Data won't play along with you.You think what you're seeing is the KOSPI bleeding, but let me tell you—that's the house dealer right under your nose, swapping a red chip for a black chip. Yesterday you saw it drop 5% with your own eyes, Samsung and SK Hynix were cut by 8%, and you thought it was the end of the world? But let me tell you, this is not a crash at all, it's a "replay."
Remember the show on July 31? A 14% intraday surge, Hynix soaring 28% with a massive bullish candle. That was a huge red fireball, the magician threw it into the air, and the entire audience's attention was drawn to it. Today, he flipped the same coin over—down 8%. What you see is "panic," what I see is "the same act replayed." They are using the same hand as last time to cover the bottom cards you should be seeing this time.
At this moment, the Korean authorities jump in and say: we're going to use "emergency powers," cut the leverage ETF multiplier to 1.5x, add a shell, and even set up a simulation market. Got it? This is called "confiscating the props." When the audience starts to see through the trick, the magician won't fix the mechanism; he'll smash it and practice sleight of hand. You can no longer bet heavily on those flying hands—because the stage rules have just been rewritten.
Look backstage again. Nomura pulls out a ledger, raising Samsung's 2028 profit forecast to 770 trillion KRW; Bank of America says this card "caps the downside but doesn't cap the upside." This is a typical "rhetorical omission." The real player working in the shadows is Roundhill—it pulled $432 million from Samsung and increased holdings in Changxin Memory. See? This is the real card swap. They say "long-term optimism" with their mouths, but their hands have already slipped that old K into their sleeves.
This scene transmitted to the US stock market is the $XQQQ drama you need to watch. Korea's chip stocks are the smoke screen on stage, while the Nasdaq tech weights behind XQQQ are the dark room. When you stare at Korea's plummeting curve, thinking global tech is about to collapse, the hand pulling the strings is leading the entire computing power illusion from your blind spot to the next round. Seeing the direction wrong doesn't mean the props aren't moving.
Now, do you understand where the mechanism of this round of reshuffling is set? The magician never takes a bow; he only steals your bottom cards when you think the show is over.
#KoreaChipSelloff Here's an indicator that reveals the real demand from US institutions: Coinbase premium. At the same moment, the price difference between $BTC on Coinbase and Binance—if it stays positive, it means US funds are actively buying; but when it's close to zero or even slightly negative, like now, it means this rebound from around 63,000 is mainly supported by the Asian market and derivatives, while US institutions on the spot side haven't jumped in. The price can rise, but without incremental buying support, the rise is hollow underneath. Do you trust the price, or do you trust this price difference? To briefly explain the current BTC market: there is currently no positive news on the market itself. The U.S. Crypto Clarity Act is basically certain to fail before Congress recesses in August. Currently, the market estimates that the probability of this bill being implemented in 2026 is only 33%. So even if it doesn't pass, it's entirely within everyone's expectations. Even if it falls, it's just a minor pullback—just for show. On the other hand, if it unexpectedly passes, it would be a major unexpectedly positive development, driving the market higher. Since July, BTC has slightly fallen by 0.9%, trading sideways without rising or falling. The market is currently very calm, with no new buyers entering or a large number of new sellers fleeing. As long as there is no sudden major negative news, large funds won't suddenly dump BTC. Previously, some market participants worried that Japan might intervene in the exchange rate, causing carry funds to close out positions and be forced to sell off risky assets like BTC. But so far, this has not happened, and previous concerns have been dashed. Moreover, it's clear that the bill's failure to pass this issue has long been digested by the market and reflected in the price. Looking at micro-strategies focused on BTC, the cash holdings have been very abundant recently, with no need or pressure to sell coins. Although major trading platforms are currently quiet, there have been no closures, withdrawals, or defaults, so the market overall remains stable. Additionally, the 10-year U.S. Treasury real yield continues to rise, which should suppress BTC prices, but so far, this negative impact is not significant. It hasn't triggered concentrated selling, only discouraged some from entering$BTC 63080, fee rate 0.010% turned positive, long-short ratio not given but OI shrank — the rebound pushed by short covering, not new money entering. With A-shares and Korean stocks dropping so much, the crypto market holding up looks fake. The rebound is a good opportunity to exit longs, target 61500. The current market is in a stalemate under multiple pressures: the Federal Reserve is not providing liquidity, regulatory expectations have fallen short, and capital continues to flee. The so-called "big move is coming" is more likely a choice of direction rather than a one-sided market— and the trigger is most likely to come from macro data (inflation, employment) or unexpected changes in regulation.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
August is historically a month with thin trading volume, which means that once there is data or news exceeding expectations, volatility may come quickly and fiercely. But before that, the market will most likely continue to "grind" lower.Fundamental Research Report $DYDX / dYdX (DeFi) $3.20
Summary: dYdX ($DYDX) overall score 47/100, rating early-stage project, insufficient validation. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows evidence of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Project overview: dYdX (token $DYDX), in the DeFi sector. Focuses on decentralized perpetual contracts. Competitors include SNX and GMX. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, and user data is not controlled by users. On-chain trustless trading fees are lower, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
User metrics: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing referenced from PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales referenced from whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration evidenced by API/SDK access (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token details: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): circulating market cap dYdX $3.00B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. FDV dYdX $4.20B, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Annual revenue dYdX $2.00M, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users dYdX undisclosed, SNX undisclosed, GMX undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario values $3.00B at 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic scenario with revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Final qualitative assessment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 47/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, expectations overextended, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlocks causing sell-offs, protocol income long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key metrics to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviations over 30% require reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit $BTC $ETH funds are "fleeing" stablecoins and embracing BTC/ETH, but the overall market is in a shrinking game, with altcoins generally bleeding.
1. The most critical signal: massive outflow of USDC (purchasing power retreat)
USDC has the largest net outflow in all three cycles (5 minutes - 1.95 million, 15 minutes - 8.69 million, 30 minutes - 6.42 million). This indicates a huge amount of funds are converting back to fiat and exiting, rather than buying other coins. Although BTC/ETH have inflows at the 30-minute level, the scale of USDC outflow far exceeds the total inflow of the two (about -6.42 million vs +3.68 million), showing the overall market purchasing power is shrinking, which should be warned as a short-term top signal.
2. Major coins (BTC/ETH): 30-minute level "V-shaped" bottoming
· BTC: Slight drop in 5 minutes (-1.41 million), followed by continuous net inflows in 15 and 30 minutes (+2.36 million, +2.8 million), short-term selling pressure quickly digested, making it the strongest position for bulls.
· ETH: Large outflow in 15 minutes (-950,000), but quickly turned to net inflow in 30 minutes (+880,000), showing a deep V reversal, indicating funds are buying at low levels (around the 15-minute interval).
3. Mainstream altcoins (BNB/XRP/SOL): complete collapse
All three have net outflows at the 30-minute level (BNB -210,000, XRP -560,000, SOL -54,000), with outflows intensifying at the 15-minute level. This shows funds only dare to buy BTC/ETH for hedging and have not spread to the altcoin sector, indicating very low market risk appetite.
4. Detailed anomalies (DOGE and ZEC)
· DOGE: Small net inflows in all three cycles (total about 100,000), showing relative resilience in weakness, possibly attracting independent short-term funds.
· ZEC: Sudden inflow of 11,000 in 5 minutes, but turned to outflow of -23,000 in 30 minutes, representing a pulse-style pump and dump, with high risk of chasing highs.
Comprehensive conclusion and operation tips:
Currently, it is a "cover retreat" pattern—major players use small amounts of funds to lift BTC/ETH to maintain appearances, but the large outflow of USDC exposes that smart money is reducing overall positions. Short-term (15-minute level) bears dominate; although BTC rebounds at 30 minutes, if USDC outflows continue, the sustainability of the rebound is doubtful. It is recommended to avoid weak altcoins like BNB/XRP first, watch whether BTC can hold the support formed by inflows within 30 minutes, and cut losses decisively if it breaks down. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ 📈 $XRP 4-hour level: Bullish trend continues, short-term structure remains bullish, direction clearly upward.
🔍 Key trading range
Entry zone: 1.0600 – 1.0831
🛡️ Defensive stop loss: 1.0300
🎯 Upside targets
First target: 1.1400
Second target: 1.2000
Third target: 1.2700
📊 Logical basis
Price maintains strong support above 1.0500 with active buying participation, indicating clear recognition of this area by bullish funds. As long as the key support is not broken, the upward structure is expected to continue extending, with the overall trend mainly characterized by pullback support.
⚠️ Risk warning: The above content is for technical analysis reference only and does not constitute any investment advice (NFA), for educational purposes only. The market is highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously according to your own risk tolerance. US and Iran return to the negotiating table, the crypto market receives a "complex positive" signal
Last Friday, Trump was still shouting on social media that "the gun is loaded," threatening to launch an "unprecedented military strike since World War II" against Iran. The US State Department even issued a security warning to American citizens in the Middle East, advising them to "consider leaving the area."
Then what? In less than 48 hours, the script completely reversed.
Trump announced on Air Force One: strike canceled, negotiations on Monday. Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar collectively urged peace, and Iran also "requested cancellation."
Once the news broke—
Brent crude plunged 7.3% intraday, hitting a low of $81.55.
WTI crude fell below $80.
July’s nearly 25% monthly gain gave back almost one-third in a single day.
What about Bitcoin? It rose.
It broke through $63,000, Ethereum rose over 2%, SOL rose over 3%. US stock futures rallied, and gold broke above $4080.
Social media erupted in cheers: "Peace has come! Risk assets take off!"
Hold on. This "peace" is not so simple for Bitcoin.
Breaking it down, there are two completely opposite transmission paths:
Path A — Positive.
Oil price plummets → inflation expectations ease → Fed rate cut space opens → liquidity improves → risk asset valuations rise.
The July Fed meeting already had 3 dissenting votes. Why? Because of oil prices. When oil hits $100, CPI rebounds directly, how can the Fed cut rates?
Now with oil prices plunging, the logic for rate cuts is back.
Path B — Negative.
Geopolitical conflict ends → risk-off sentiment cools → the "wartime premium" on gold and Bitcoin fades → short-term capital outflows.
In recent months, the Middle East conflict gave Bitcoin a "digital gold" safe-haven label. Now that label is being torn off.
How is the market pricing these two paths?
Look at the prices—
Bitcoin rose, but only by 1%. Brent dropped 7%.
Path A’s logic is at work, but the market is still hesitant.
Why the hesitation?
Because Iran said: Trump’s claim that Iran requested to stop attacks is "a new lie."
Because Iran said: the situation in the Strait of Hormuz "will not return to the state before the conflict broke out."
Because this conflict has lasted more than five months, Trump’s "sudden reversal" is not the first time.
Bitcoin doesn’t need a world war to prove itself. What it needs is the continuous devaluation of fiat systems—and low oil prices precisely give central banks more excuses to flood the market with liquidity. The script was written long ago, but the actor changed the lead actor. If you experienced the overwhelming "leveraged bull" of China's A-shares in 2015, and then look at the current weekly chart of the Korean stock market (KOSPI), you might break out in a cold sweat—where is this similar? It's like taking the same script and having a perfect "clone remake" in different timelines! Whether it's the crazy logic of the rise or the precise trajectory of the sell-off, the Korea Index is gradually following the same path as the A-shares once did. And all these signals are sending warnings: this dreamlike carnival woven by leverage and frenzy has reached its peak. Scenario One: Success and Failure Leverage (Frenzied Origins) The essence of both bull markets was determined from day one: neither was a healthy bull driven by fundamentals, but rather a "water buffalo" built by retail investors borrowing money. A-shares in 2015: Off-exchange margin financing was all the rage, margin financing balances exceeded 2 trillion yuan, countless retail investors rushed into the market with triple, five, or even tenfold leverage, firmly believing that "ten thousand points is not a dream." Today's Korean stock market: Retail lending (credit trading) has repeatedly reached record heights, with extremely high leverage pushing the index to unprecedented highs. The nationwide stock trading and even borrowing money for stock trading have reached their peak before the freezing point. Leverage is the catalyst for a bull market, but it is also destined to be the catalyst for a bear market. Once liquidity marginally tightens or even minor cracks appear in the capital chain, a self-reinforcing "liquidation stampede" will instantly follow. Scenario 2: Precise Kill Chart (The Unavoidable Technical Curse) Open two🚨 Everyone's celebrating the "reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz... but what if it's not actually open?
The market may be pricing in good news that hasn't happened yet.
Here's what's being overlooked:
• Iran says no final agreement has been reached.
• Reports suggest Iran is still demanding greater control over the Strait.
• Until there's an official deal, geopolitical risk remains very real.
That means oil prices and inflation expectations could spike again with little warning.
And that's not the kind of environment that usually favors high-beta assets like $ETH.
From a technical standpoint:
📍 ETH is still trading around $1,860.
📍 The $1,920–1,950 zone remains heavy resistance.
📍 A sustained move above $2,000 is needed before the trend truly improves.
Right now, every bounce looks more like a chance for shorts to reload than the start of a new rally.
The derivatives data tells a similar story:
• Around $95.6M in ETH positions were liquidated over the last 24 hours.
• More than 80% of those liquidations were longs, showing leveraged bulls are still getting squeezed.
Spot ETF flows aren't offering much support either. Recent sessions have seen inconsistent demand, with multiple net outflow days and only modest inflows.
My view is simple:
As long as ETH stays below $1,920–1,950, I remain bearish.
But trading isn't about conviction—it's about risk management.
Protect profits first. The market will always give you another opportunity.
#ETH #Crypto #Bitcoin #Trading #Ethereum #Oil #Inflation #Markets
#DailyOrbit For the first time in 15 years, the US and Japan have jointly intervened in the yen, and this matter is much more technically complex than it appears on the surface.
Let's start with the data:
- USD/JPY is currently at 156.46. Last Thursday, Japan bought yen in a single day, with trading volume hitting the highest in nearly 12 years.
- On August 1, the Japanese Ministry of Finance announced: the Fed's FIMA standing repo facility will be used if necessary.
- US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday: joint intervention is not ruled out again, and called for expanding the FIMA scale.
What is FIMA? Technical details breakdown:
It is a mechanism established by the Federal Reserve in March 2020—foreign central banks pledge their US Treasuries to the Fed in exchange for dollar liquidity.
Essentially: Japan can get dollars to support the yen without selling US Treasuries.
Why is this detail important?
Because Japan is the world's largest holder of US Treasuries (about $1.06 trillion).
If Japan directly sold US Treasuries to get dollars for yen intervention, US Treasuries would collapse, yields would soar, and global asset pricing anchors would be disrupted.
So the existence of FIMA means Japan can "borrow money by pledging US Treasuries" rather than "selling US Treasuries."
In short: the Fed allows Japan to use US Treasuries as collateral like toilet paper but does not allow Japan to sell US Treasuries on the market.
What does this mean for the crypto space?
1. Part of the dollar liquidity is "locked up"
Japan borrows dollars to buy yen, so there are fewer dollars in the market. Dollar liquidity tightens marginally, risk assets come under pressure, and don't expect BTC to surge in the short term.
2. Arbitrage trades enter "liquidation time"
Yen appreciation → arbitrage positions borrowing yen to buy US Treasuries/US stocks/BTC are collectively liquidated. The August 5, 2024 BTC single-day -20% scenario is still fresh, and this time the US-Japan officials are stepping in to force liquidations.
3. The biggest hidden risk: FIMA expansion = disguised money printing
What Yellen wants to expand is nothing else but allowing the Fed to accept more US Treasuries as collateral and release more dollars. In the short term, it rescues the yen; in the long term, it extends the global dollar system’s life—the prelude to debt monetization.
Intel being named by Trump is no coincidence—while intervening in the yen, they also support domestic semiconductors; politics and economics are never separate.
Technical conclusion:
- Short term: dollar liquidity tightens marginally + arbitrage liquidation = BTC under pressure
- Medium to long term: FIMA expansion = disguised balance sheet expansion = dollar depreciation pressure = fuel for BTC
The market always oscillates between "liquidity tightening" and "debt monetization," and BTC happens to be the only intersection of these two forces.
#Yen #FIMA #BTC This week is the last week for the bill, but it is very unlikely to be passed this week!
The Senate will officially adjourn on August 7, and the next session will resume on September 11.
If a vote on "whether the bill passes" is to be held on August 7, the "debate procedure on the bill" must first be ended, and a 30-hour discussion period must be allowed. In other words, a vote on "whether to end the debate procedure" must be held by August 5.
However, to vote to end the debate procedure, 16 senators must submit an application two days in advance, meaning the application must be submitted today. But today's agenda has already been announced, and no one has submitted the application. This means that, following the normal process, there is not enough time to discuss it by August 7. #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口 Want everyone to know:
Institutional entry has long turned crypto from a wild path into a configurable asset, reducing the risk of going to zero — this is a real long-term positive, but in the short term, every piece of news about institutional entry may already be at points like: before PIPE unlock, during GBTC rebalancing, before treasury stock ATM issuance, or when ETF funds lag behind derivatives deleveraging. Retail investors treat institutions as bullish commanders, while institutions see retail optimism as a signal to exit liquidity.Both forces pushed the yen higher: official currency market intervention + concentrated short positions unwinding, resulting in a short-term surge but a weak long-term edge. The dollar surged 3% against the yen in one hour, marking the strongest single-day rally in nearly two years. Behind this was Japan's official intervention to rescue the exchange rate, selling off dollar reserves and making large purchases of yen. Japan is not alone in this move. The US has also signaled easing, and with the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes, the US dollar has weakened overall, allowing Japan to take advantage of the situation and achieve twice the result with half the effort. Previously, short positions on the yen piled up to a nine-year high, but once the intervention occurred, the bears rushed out, directly accelerating the yen's rally. Logic of various stock price movements: 1. Japanese yen futures 6J: Short-term rally continues, but US and Japanese interest rate policies are moving completely opposite, Japan's massive debt problem remains unresolved, policy intervention effects are worsening, and the long-term outlook is bearish; 2. Nikkei ETF1321: Yen appreciation is unfavorable for major export companies' profits, arbitrage funds flee, and short-term pressure is expected to decline; 3. DXJ Hedge Japanese Stock Fund: Built-in yen short-selling hedging tool, more resistant to market declines, suitable for those optimistic about Japanese stocks and not betting on continued yen price increases. Ultimately, intervention can only temporarily halt the yen's sharp decline and cannot solve the root cause of long-term weakness. If the US-Japan interest rate gap widens again, carry trades will once again sell down the yen, and global risk assets will face another round of pressure. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美日确认联合购汇 A new week, a new beginning～
In a nutshell: The US-Iran situation has temporarily eased, but the market and institutional funds remain cautious. This week, the focus is on US employment data.
The current market focus remains on the US-Iran situation and related statements from Trump. Trump stated that the US will temporarily hold off on further military action against Iran, hoping to resolve the Strait of Hormuz passage and Iran's nuclear issues through negotiations. Both sides are expected to start a new round of talks.
Affected by this news, international oil prices have clearly fallen, market risk aversion has cooled down, and in the short term, this has provided some support to risk assets like Bitcoin.
Personally, I believe that no substantial agreement has been reached between the US and Iran yet. Trump's policy stance may fluctuate at any time, and the Middle East situation still carries the risk of escalation. Therefore, although market sentiment has improved somewhat, it has not truly turned optimistic.
Regarding funds, over the past 5 trading days, crypto ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of $68,444,500, indicating that institutional funds are still mainly reducing risk in the short term, with no obvious sustained buying strength yet.
The easing of geopolitical risks can improve market sentiment, but against the backdrop of continued ETF outflows, Bitcoin's short-term upside may still be limited. The market is more likely to remain volatile and oscillate rather than break out in a one-sided rally.
This week, the focus is on US ADP employment data and the non-farm payroll report, while continuing to monitor the progress of US-Iran negotiations.
If US employment data cools down, it may raise market expectations for easing policies, supporting Bitcoin; if employment data significantly exceeds market expectations, it may push the dollar and US bond yields higher, continuing to suppress crypto market performance.
Regarding this week's market trend, unless the US-Iran talks achieve a substantial breakthrough and both sides genuinely have a chance to reach an agreement and ease tensions, the difficulty of achieving peace in the short term remains high based on the current situation.
Personally, I think the market will mainly fluctuate within a range this week, with possible rapid rises or falls influenced by news.
Today's market is expected to be weak and sideways. In the short term, BTC support is near 61500, ETH near 1800, SOL near 70
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ The transaction volume of event contracts on the Robinhood trading terminal has, for the first time, surpassed the warning threshold of traditional stocks and crypto assets.
In Q2, event contracts contributed $156 million in revenue, while crypto trading revenue shrank year-over-year to $100 million. This structural shift directly drove the platform's total trading revenue up 44% year-over-year to $776 million.
Macroeconomic uncertainty has increased market demand for hedging tools, with funds shifting from highly volatile token spot markets to lightweight prediction contracts. This position adjustment reflects a subtle change in retail investors' risk appetite, moving from holding assets to betting on short-term certain outcomes.
When liquidity premiums in the crypto market are constrained by inflation expectations, the low entry barrier of prediction markets absorbs this overflow of funds. This capital shift successfully hedges the impact of declining crypto trading volume on the platform's overall revenue.
If macro-political events continue to escalate, the daily active users of event contracts will hit new highs, establishing a valuation premium for this new growth engine. However, if regulators impose restrictive access policies on prediction markets, this upward trajectory will quickly collapse.
If the crypto market reaches a liquidity inflection point due to easing inflation pressures, funds will flow back to mainstream tokens, causing a seasonal decline in prediction market activity. Should nominal crypto trading volume regain high levels, it would signal a revival of traditional trading lines dominating valuation again.
Market pricing divergence on $HOOD's business transformation ultimately depends on whether prediction markets can maintain retention rates after the unconventional event cycle ends. If future user retention drops sharply, the current business shift will be disproven as a brief cyclical speculation.
In the next 7 days, the key variable to watch is whether the weekly growth rate of new open interest in event contracts begins to slow.
#美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 #HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即The joint yen-dollar currency purchase will provide some short-term support to US stock market sentiment,
but in the medium to long term, it reveals the deep vulnerabilities of the US Treasury market,
and may trigger a reversal of yen carry trades, which is the most dangerous chain reaction for the overvalued sectors of the US stock market.
This does not mean the risks in the US stock market are eliminated; on the contrary #美日确认联合购汇 #US and Japan Confirm Joint Currency Purchase
The US and Japan have agreed to jointly enter the market to buy yen and support the exchange rate; underlying market movements have already started.
Just saw the official news: the finance departments of both the US and Japan have directly confirmed externally that they are jointly buying yen and selling dollars to stabilize the exchange rate. The last time these two countries did this together was during the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. More than a decade has passed, and this time the intervention is much stronger than expected.
A few days ago, there were only rumors that the US planned to deploy tens of billions of funds to intervene, and many thought it was just verbal intimidation of short sellers. Now with the official announcement, the yen has surged sharply from a 40-year low, and the USD/JPY pair has dropped more than 700 points in a short time, with extremely volatile swings. Japan has already spent nearly $60 billion defending the market in the past two days, and the New York Fed is coordinating operations simultaneously. Officials have also stated that if the yen continues to depreciate unexpectedly, they will increase funding and intensify intervention.
Why is the US willing to break precedent and join Japan in rescuing the exchange rate this time? Frankly, it’s about their own interests. After the yen’s sharp decline, Japan has had to continuously sell its US Treasury holdings to convert into dollars to curb domestic price increases. A large volume of US Treasuries has flooded the market, pushing yields sharply higher, which puts pressure on US stocks and various risk assets. The US definitely does not want to see the US Treasury market completely destabilized. Additionally, with the tense situation in the Middle East and rising oil prices, global inflation is already unstable. Allowing the yen to continue depreciating would worsen trade imbalances, so they decided to jointly intervene to stabilize the situation.
The most critical part is about the crypto market we’re watching. Experienced players know that cheap yen has long been a low-cost funding source for institutions trading crypto. Many traders borrow low-interest yen to convert into dollars and flow into Bitcoin and Ethereum for arbitrage, commonly known as carry trades.
Now that the US and Japan have jointly pushed up the yen’s value, the cost of borrowing has effectively increased, forcing many carry trade positions to be closed: selling their crypto holdings to convert back to yen to repay loans, which will create significant selling pressure in the market.
Personally, I have already reduced my contract positions to a very conservative level. This kind of geopolitical plus exchange rate linked flash crash is prone to sweeping losses on both longs and shorts, so I dare not gamble heavily. For spot holdings, I’m holding my base positions and have placed buy orders at key support levels: 62200 for Bitcoin and 18200 for Ethereum. If panic selling occurs, I will only buy small amounts at these support levels and will never blindly bottom-fish during a downtrend.
Going forward, I’m focusing on two developments: first, whether the two countries will add more intervention funds and whether the yen can maintain its upward momentum; second, whether a large amount of carry trade funds have started to exit the crypto market.
Recently, many friends in the group are debating whether to reduce positions early to hedge risks or wait for the sell-off to pick up chips. When facing such sudden macro changes, are you planning to take profits and watch first, or hold your positions and see how things develop?BTC rebounds to resistance zone: The 63,000 level is the key battleground between bulls and bears—will the next move be a breakout or a pullback?
As of August 3, 2026, Bitcoin's price has been oscillating near $63,000, caught in a narrow tug-of-war between a descending trendline and critical support. This article deeply analyzes BTC's current battle around the $64,000 resistance band and $62,200 support level, combining the latest on-chain data, ETF capital flows, and technical structure to provide investors with actionable directional insights and risk management frameworks.
1. Macro Landscape: What is BTC experiencing in 2026?
To understand the current fight for $63,000, we must first grasp Bitcoin's macro context in 2026.
On October 4, 2025, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $125,900, then entered a deep correction. By March 2026, the price had dipped to the $60,000 mark, a maximum drawdown exceeding 52%. Since then, the market has formed a months-long consolidation range between $60,965 and $66,885. Since July 3, it has been consolidating within this $66,885 to $60,965 range.
Entering August, Bitcoin faces an awkward seasonal window—historical data shows August is the weakest month for Bitcoin annually, with a median price change of -7.87% and an average return of only -0.64%. August's median monthly decline of -7.87% is the worst single-month record of the year.
More noteworthy is the subtle shift in capital flows. The weekly net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF dropped sharply from a high of $197 million on July 10 to $33.79 million on July 24, a 55% decline in just one week, and an 83% drop from the monthly peak. The weekly net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF... fell 83% from the July high, with institutional funds visibly retreating, creating a dangerous resonance with August's seasonal weakness.
However, on-chain data paints a contradictory picture. The number of whale entities holding at least 1,000 BTC increased slightly from 1,263 on July 23 to about 1,267 within three days, indicating quiet accumulation by large holders. The number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC... rose from 1,263 to about 1,267, but at the same time, the net position change indicator for long-term holders has been steadily declining, dropping from 29,838 BTC on July 11 to 15,766 BTC on July 26, a 47% decrease in two weeks. On July 11, net position change was 29,838 BTC... a 47% drop in just two weeks.
This "whales accumulating, long-term holders reducing positions" split is the core reason for the current market's unclear direction.
2. Technical Structure: The life-and-death struggle under the descending trendline
2.1 Price Structure: The harsh reality of continuously lower highs
Since the recent high of $66,924, Bitcoin has maintained a clear downtrend. Each rebound peak is progressively lower, forming a classic "lower highs, testing lows" bearish pattern.
Currently, the price is repeatedly testing around $63,000, exactly at the intersection of bullish and bearish firepower. The first key resistance zone above lies between $63,500 and $64,000—this is not only a short-term dense trading area but also where the descending trendline resides. If the price can break through and hold above this zone, the next target will be $64,500 to $65,000, opening further rebound space.
However, from the three-day chart perspective, Bitcoin has been operating within a "head and shoulders" pattern since early March. The rebound since June 30 has been accompanied by steadily declining volume, a textbook bearish signal of "right shoulder rising with volume exhaustion." Since June 30... this is a demonstration of the "exhaustion" signal.
2.2 $63,000: The true dividing line between bulls and bears
$63,000 is the most critical level currently because it carries multiple technical significances:
For bulls, the $63,000–$62,800 zone is a must-defend line. If broken, the support levels below at $62,500 and $62,200 will be tested. If $62,200 is decisively breached, it will confirm this rebound is merely a technical correction within a downtrend, not a trend reversal.
For bears, $64,000 is the key fortress to reconfirm trend suppression. If the price repeatedly fails to break this level, it will strongly signal that the descending trendline resistance is effective, providing technical confirmation for a new round of declines.
2.3 Two levels that decide fate
All market participants are closely watching two numbers:
• $64,000 — Can bulls regain control and break the descending trendline resistance?
• $62,200 — Will bears retake the rhythm and confirm the continuation of the downtrend?
The $1,800 range between these two levels is the current main battlefield between bulls and bears.
Deep signals from on-chain and capital flows
ETF Capital: The barometer of institutional sentiment
The capital flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs is the best window to observe institutional sentiment. In June 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $4.5 billion, marking the worst record since their listing in 2024. Bitcoin's June spot ETF net outflow reached $4.5 billion... the worst record since 2024 listing.
#30-year US Treasury, top or new starting point? #US-Japan confirmed joint currency purchase #Korean stock KOSPI surges 14% intraday, setting record largest single-day gain $BTC $ETH $BEAT A new week begins, and Trump's "mouth" is back to work!
In recent months, Trump has been making tough statements on Fridays, then going silent, and on weekend nights dropping another TACO move, a very clear rhythm.
The core purpose is to apply increasingly strong military and diplomatic pressure to force Iran and regional mediators to start compromising and negotiating, thereby achieving his own diplomatic and negotiation goals.
The tactic is old, clichéd, and simple, but given the current US military strength and Trump's poor "reputation," no one dares to bet on whether he will take action, so it still has an effect.
It's like in a society ruled by law: if a normal person holds a knife, you might not fear being harmed, but if someone tells you this person is a "madman," probably everyone would keep their distance. Becoming a mad dog or madman might not be a bad thing for Trump.
Of course, the space for using this effective tactic is limited. Two weeks ago, he declared the largest-scale strike; last week, he increased the description of the attack scale. What about this week? If Iran remains stubborn this week, Trump's options are few and he might have to force a large-scale attack on Iran?
However, the US-Iran situation is not without progress. Although Iran does not want to admit it, facing military intimidation, the Iran-Oman Strait co-management agreement has still made some breakthroughs. Next, it depends on the actual version. If this version can be jointly recognized by Iran and the US, the US and Iran will return to the negotiating table!
For risk markets, the recent negative impact brought by US-Iran geopolitics has already weakened a lot. Similarly, how much positive effect will the US and Iran returning to the negotiating table bring? Obviously, not much.
The most sensitive remains the international crude oil price and US oil. US oil will first look to reach 75; if it stabilizes below 75, then 65 prices can be expected! But this process will take time! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 📌 1. Today's Key Focus: The Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps rates unchanged, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment: The Federal Reserve has recently kept interest rates unchanged, and the market is closely monitoring subsequent economic data to determine the timing for rate cuts. Macro funds have become cautious in the short term, and the crypto market overall shows a pattern of shrinking volume and volatility. Institutional Treasuries and ETF Flows: During the US earnings season, data on Bitcoin holdings by listed companies and net inflows/outflows from spot ETFs have become the main indicators supporting the current main forces. 📉 2. BitBit and Ethereum trends Bitcoin $BTC current market trends: narrow consolidation in the $63,200 – $63,500 range. Technical view: The daily chart is moving below the zero axis, with short-term bullish and bearish forces tugging in a tug-of-war, waiting for a breakout in the direction. Key levels: Downside core support: $62,000 – $62,500 (if broken, be aware of downside risk). Key resistance above: $64,500 – $65,000 (a volume breakout is needed to confirm breaking out of the oscillation box). Trading mindset: Do not blindly chase highs; wait for the lower support to be established before gradually positioning or follow up when resistance is broken and pullback. Ethereum $ETH Current Market: Bottoming out around $1,870. Technical view: The trend is constrained by short-term moving averages, but buying on the lower side is gradually showing resilience, seeking a box bottom. Key levels: Lower core support: $1,820 – $1,850. Key resistance above: $1,920 –Good Monday morning, this week is a week off, so I can watch the market while spending time with my kid.
BTC has already returned to around 63000. On Saturday, it was still dropping, but when I woke up, it was back. The weekend low hit 62200, and I was telling people in the group, "Don't rush to bottom-fish, wait and see," but it really proved me wrong.
The main reason is that Trump softened his stance, saying he agreed to cancel military strikes on Iran, and the US and Iran are set to negotiate on the 3rd. Oil prices crashed—Brent dropped over 7% at one point, falling below $80. When oil prices fall, inflation worries ease, and risk assets all come back. US stock futures rose, gold rose, and BTC also followed, breaking above 63000.
A lot of shorts were liquidated over the weekend; in the past 24 hours, over $87 million in short positions were liquidated. Those shorting got buried again; this script in crypto never changes—you think it will drop, it pulls back; you think it’s stable, it crashes down again.
Honestly, the 63500 level is quite delicate. Going up, 65000 is a hurdle; going down, 62000 is a bottom. The range in between is just back and forth grinding. August just started, and there are still non-farm payroll data, CPI, plus whether the US-Iran talks will succeed is uncertain. You know Trump—he might say they’ll talk today and strike tomorrow.
This week, the focus is on ADP and non-farm payroll data, as well as the progress of US-Iran negotiations. My position isn’t heavy now; I’ll watch and wait. It’s just Monday morning, no rush.
The above is just my personal rambling, not any advice, don’t follow blindly. #30-year US Treasury Bonds: Peak or New Starting Point?
The 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.27%, a new high since 2007. In the same week, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose more than 30 basis points within the month, marking the largest July increase since 2005. $TMF
An asset is being pulled simultaneously by forces in two directions.
Upward Pull: JPMorgan Chase has brought forward the rate hike expectations by a full six months.
Jay Barry, head of US rates strategy at JPMorgan, and others have significantly advanced the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike from the second half of 2027 to December 2026. The target rate range is 3.75%-4%. If inflation rebounds, action could be taken as early as September. They also raised the 10-year Treasury yield forecast for the end of 2026 to 4.85%, and the 30-year target from 5.2% to 5.4%.
Fed Chair Powell kept rates unchanged at the July meeting, but three dissenting votes indicate growing internal division. The “bond vigilantes” are proactively tightening financial conditions—the Fed stays put, but the market moves on its own. Since Powell’s first chaired meeting in June, the 30-year yield has risen by 34 basis points. Powell said this market-driven tightening “gives some comfort to policymakers.” The problem is, when the market tightens on its own, the impact on households and businesses may be more direct.
Downward Pressure: US and Iran return to the negotiating table, oil prices plunged over 7% in a single day. $CL
On Sunday, Trump announced the cancellation of plans to strike Iran, saying negotiations would resume Monday. On August 3 during early Asian trading, WTI crude futures opened sharply down nearly 7%, falling below $80 per barrel. US Treasury yields fell across the board: the 10-year dropped 4 basis points to 4.69%, the 2-year fell 5 basis points to 4.25%, and the 30-year declined 3 basis points to 5.24%. Inflation expectations cooled, reducing pressure for Fed rate hikes.
However, the Iranian military directly called Trump’s statement a “lie”—the two sides are still disputing. The sharp oil price drop reflects the market pricing in a “ceasefire.” If Iran’s claim is confirmed, oil prices could rebound and recover the losses.
A third variable: US-Japan joint intervention.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed that last Friday it teamed up with the US Treasury to buy yen. The USD/JPY rate dropped sharply from 163.73 to 157.57. The key is that Japan will utilize the Fed’s FIMA repo facility—temporarily pledging US Treasuries to obtain dollar liquidity without directly selling US bonds. US Treasury Secretary Yellen called FIMA an “important backstop” and encouraged expanding its scale.
Without FIMA, Japan’s currency intervention would require selling US Treasuries to raise dollars, which would further push up long-term yields. With FIMA, this transmission chain is cut off.
Impact on the crypto market:
JPMorgan is pricing in rate hikes, oil prices are pricing in a ceasefire, and FIMA is buffering intervention pressure. The directional choice of the 30-year US Treasury yield around 5.3% will determine the valuation anchor for risk assets in August. If yields continue to rise, the higher risk-free rate will increase valuation pressure on assets like BTC that generate no cash flow. If yields turn down due to falling oil prices, risk assets will gain breathing room. $SPCX is just trash; the market has been declining all the way, with highs continuously moving lower and lows constantly refreshing. The bullish structure disappeared long ago. It's really hard to understand the expectations of those who still insist on going long now.
Objectively speaking, one must admit Elon Musk's ability to build a personal IP is top-notch globally.
Many people online blindly criticize Musk regardless of context, but their perspective is somewhat one-sided. SpaceX has yet to achieve stable and mature commercial manned spaceflight operations; all company operating data and project progress are publicly verifiable.
If you sincerely yearn for space exploration and are willing to pay for humanity's dream of reaching the stars and the sea, that sentiment is understandable.
But trading must separate ideals from the market.
The first earnings report after listing is about to be released, and just two days later, the largest single unlock in US stock market history will occur, with 911.5 million shares unlocking, creating huge pressure on the new circulating supply.
The market is currently watching Starlink's revenue growth, xAI computing power orders, and Starship planning guidance. To reverse the downtrend relying on the earnings report, data must strongly exceed expectations. Pure faith alone is unlikely to hedge against the massive upcoming selling pressure.
Feelings can be kept, but the market will not unconditionally pay for dreams. The trend is clear, and the dual test of earnings and unlock is approaching. Don't fight the market with subjective obsession. #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 $BTC $ETH $SNDK SK海力士财报不及预期 亚洲科技股又被按在地上摩擦 费城半导体指数从6月高点跌了25% 韩国KOSPI一天崩了10个点 但苹果悄悄夺回了全球市值第一 道指逆势创出新高 这说明什么 资金没有离开美股 是在从拥挤的AI硬件交易里撤出来 挪到现金流更稳估值压力更小的资产里去 市场现在被撕成两派 看多的人说 AI主线完好 这不是泡沫破裂 Cathie Wood觉得市场还在爬担忧之墙 真正的大顶在所有人都觉得稳了的时候才会出现 现在全是怀疑恐慌和质疑 反而说明不是顶 看空的人说 AI信用裂缝已经出现 ZeroHedge盯着循环融资的风险 英伟达和OpenAI互相投资互相采购 到底多少是真实需求多少是资本在产业链内部转圈 木头姐的观点很直接 存储板块这波杀跌 三股力量叠在一起 估值泡沫 周期见顶 去杠杆踩踏 但AI需求被证伪了吗 没有 英伟达的GPU还是缺货 HBM还是供不应求 大模型的训练推理还是烧钱 估值贵了 杀一杀 周期到了 调一调 韩国杠杆爆了 清一清 但AI这个方向没变 真正的分水岭不是眼下这波情绪杀 是未来几个季度 AI收入和现金流能不能配得上资本开支 Earnings beating expectations while the stock price falls is not contradictory. The market trades on "actual results minus prior expectations" and will continue to focus on profit quality and next quarter guidance.
Apple's data this quarter includes one-time effects such as tariff refunds, so when assessing the substance, sustainable operational improvements and one-time items should be separated. Good results do not equal good prices; the expectation gap is the key variable after earnings. For knowledge sharing only, not investment advice. #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 $XAAPL Can BTC's bullish signal lead to a revaluation of all altcoins? How far does the boundary between expectations already priced in the price and variables not yet priced in? The price list mentioned in the original text is a kind of scenario map circulating within the community. BTC $150,000, ETH $6,000, BNB $1,500, SOL $350, and XRP $589 are representative expectations for the latter half of the bull market. However, XRP at $589 is essentially an extreme assumption, assuming a revaluation of more than 30 times its current market capitalization. ADA at $2, AVAX at $50, and DOT at $15 are slightly above past cycle highs, while LTC at $150, BCH at $800, and ZEC at $1,000 are conservative scenarios for maintaining previous cycle highs. Meme coin price tags like SHIB $1, DOGE $0.5, and FLOKI $0.69 are more emotional indicators of the community than real-world verification. BONK $0.01, SUI $5, INJ $30, NEAR $10The excitement is real, but beneath the excitement, the layer of inheritance is what determines whether you can walk out alive. Have you ever wondered why those projects in the last bull market, once hailed as "100x leaders," are now so weak even in their rebound? I checked the on-chain data and looked at the market performance, and honestly, I felt pretty disappointed. Many established brands have not never gone up in price but have never returned after the price has risen. On the surface, sector rotation continues—one AI moves today, the next game pulls a string. But if you really chase those so-called "old leaders," you'll most likely find they're still far from their historical highs, and some can't even stand on the relay platforms from the last bull market. There's a tough structural issue here: once the US stock market goes public, traditional funds have more convenient tools—who will come back to take over these illiquid, outdated tokens? In the past, the knockoff season was about sharing the benefits equally; now it's the Matthew effect—the stronger the stronger, the weaker the downside, and the weaker ones fall so badly that no one cares. I observed a very clear signal: this round is truly sustained not by those well-known "old OGs," but by new narratives, new chip structures, and new funds willing to band together. For example, in the AI sector, there are those with real revenue potential, in RWA, those that can implement assets, and in the BTC ecosystem, those protocols that go from zero to one. Their common traits are: clean chips, few trapped positions, and low resistance to pulls. But conversely, the risks are also very specific. The problem with new coins is that their valuations rely entirely on sentiment; once the market turns, there is no anchor for a decline. Although old coins have poor elasticity, at least30-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 5.27% — the highest level since 2007. JPMorgan raised its target to 5.4%, bringing forward the rate hike expectation to December this year. In the same week, oil prices plunged more than 7% in a single day. On one side, there is a 19-year high risk-free rate; on the other, a rapid clearing of geopolitical risk premiums — whether 5.27% is a peak or a new starting point depends on which line you trust.
① JPMorgan says 5.4% is not the end, but the target
After the July FOMC meeting, the Fed’s anti-inflation credibility was damaged, and the market began to proactively tighten financial conditions. Long-term rates are breaking away from the Fed’s control — it’s not the Fed calling the shots, but the bond market acting on the Fed’s behalf. Gundlach warned that before the next FOMC in September, long-term rates could surge to the "mid-5.5%" range. Wash’s statement of being "unsatisfied with any inflation indicator," combined with a roughly 67% probability of a rate hike in September, means long-term rates are unlikely to stop at this level.
② U.S.-Iran détente is the biggest variable, but not the only one
After Trump halted strikes on Iran and both sides resumed talks, Brent crude oil plunged more than 7% in a single day. When oil prices fall, inflation expectations drop, naturally easing pressure on long-term rates. But the problem is — the back-and-forth of U.S.-Iran negotiations has played out three times in the past two months. Each time talks collapse, oil prices bounce back. If the talks on the 3rd break down again, oil prices will recover all of today’s losses. Betting on interest rate judgments based on a geopolitical line that can reverse at any time is very risky.
③ The real ceiling is the U.S.’s $1.5 trillion annual interest expense
Based on a 30-year Treasury yield of 5.27% and an average overall debt interest rate of 3.75%, the U.S. annual interest expense approaches $1.5 trillion. For every $5 the U.S. collects in taxes, $1 goes to interest payments. If long-term rates rise further, fiscal pressure will accelerate. After U.S. debt surpassed $40 trillion, market doubts about "whether U.S. finances are sustainable" are turning into tangible pricing pressure. This is the underlying driver for the continued rise in long-term rates.
④ Impact on crypto assets
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is the anchor for risk asset valuations — the higher the rate, the higher the discount rate on future cash flows, and the lower the valuations for BTC and growth stocks. A 5.27% rate level means the valuation ceiling for crypto assets cannot be broken in the short term. The single-day 7% drop in oil prices is a short-term breather, but if talks break down and oil prices rebound, 5.27% may only be an intermediate stop. Directional judgment is one thing; position management is another.
Is 5.27% the peak or a new starting point? My judgment is: if oil prices continue to rise, 5.27% is not the peak. At this level, do not chase shorts or bottom-fish; wait for clear direction from oil prices and U.S.-Iran negotiation outcomes before acting. $BTC $ETH $CL
#30-year U.S. Treasury, peak or new starting point?