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On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, don't be fooled by intraday spikes to lose your chips
Many people fall into a misconception: treating the non-farm payrolls as a "blind box to bet on direction."
In fact, the non-farm payrolls are just a catalyst; they won't create a big market trend out of thin air but rather release the already accumulated long and short forces all at once.
Looking back at the recent market, whether it's US stocks or crypto, it has clearly entered a phase of divergence.
The US stock storage sector has experienced a roller coaster of "earnings bad news → sell-off → violent V-shaped rebound"; the crypto market is sideways with only local tokens rotating in a frenzy, while many altcoins remain flat and inactive.
Incremental funds have not entered on a large scale; existing funds are playing back and forth. This is the most realistic current situation.
At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, when the non-farm payrolls are released, the market will face three possible outcomes:
1. Employment data significantly strengthens
The expectation of rate cuts is delayed again, and US Treasury yields rise. High-valuation growth stocks, AI hardware, and cryptocurrencies will be pressured immediately. But distinguish this: short-term suppression does not equal a trend reversal; sharp drops are often accompanied by false spikes.
2. Employment data significantly weakens
Rate cut expectations ignite, theoretically benefiting risk assets. But here lies the biggest trap: if the data is worse than the limit, the market will start trading "economic recession," causing a scenario where good news triggers a direct plunge. Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise; bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall. This is the most deceptive aspect of the non-farm payrolls.
3. Data falls within the expected range, neither cold nor hot
This is also the most probable scenario. The non-farm payrolls won't cause big waves; the market will return to earnings reports and sector rotation. US stocks continue to diverge, with storage watching key support; crypto remains BTC setting the tone, with local altcoin rotation.
Practical advice for ordinary traders
① Don't use large positions to gamble on the moment of data release; most moves in the first few minutes are spikes to lure longs and shorts, hard to distinguish real from fake. Be patient for 15-30 minutes until the market digests the noise and the real direction emerges.
② Don't treat short-term data fluctuations as changes in medium- to long-term trends. A monthly employment report cannot rewrite the big cycle.
③ Currently, stock picking > index picking. Even if the index is flat, some main themes will still perform; conversely, even if the index rebounds, many weak assets still won't outperform.
Personal market thoughts:
🥇 $BTC — Controls overall market liquidity, determining the overall bullish sentiment
🏧 $ETH — Chips are continuously settling, showing a steady accumulation pattern
🚀 $SOL — High elasticity representative in the Layer1 track, explosive power when the market comes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI stories continue to ferment, repeatedly attracting capital attention
📊 $HYPE — Used to observe the market's overall risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Directly reflect retail investors' long and short sentiment
💵 Capital heat concentrated attack directions:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🇺🇸 Key US stocks to track:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Capital retreat, targets with exhausted upward momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔎 Waiting for signal confirmation candidate pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS明晚20:30，7月非农就业报告将正式落地。这是美联储议息会议之后最重量级的一份数据，9月是否降息、降多少基点，全看这份报告的成色。此前ADP小非农已经明显不及预期，市场开始提前交易就业降温的逻辑，但大非农才是真正的裁决时刻。 非农走强，降息预期会瞬间缩水，美债收益率上行，高估值的AI概念和存储板块首当其冲，$MU、$SNDK这类成长标的容易遭遇抛压，$BTC 也会被流动性收紧的预期压住。非农显著走弱，降息预期升温，美债收益率下行，$BTC 和 $ETH 会获得喘息窗口，但要警惕数据太差引发衰退恐慌，反而造成全场普跌。最理想的是数据温和降温，不冷不热，市场延续当前的震荡格局，$BTC 在 $64,345 附近反复蓄力。 抛开非农，存储板块现在处于财报证伪后的剧烈震荡期。$SNDK 走出深V反转，但预期下调的阴影没有散尽，重点盯 $MU 的关键支撑能不能守住。守住代表板块分化修复，有效跌破就进入中期估值消化阶段，超跌反弹别当成新主升浪。 $BTC 作为加密市场的流动性中枢，非农落地前后波动率必然放大。$ETH 在 $1,900 附近震荡沉淀筹码，$SOL 在 $72 附近等待方向选择。 A quick comment on an industry chain positioning update. Ofilm Holdings has taken control of Zhongke Daojing, positioning itself in the glass-based advanced packaging track. Why is this worth noting? As process nodes become increasingly expensive and difficult to advance, advanced packaging has become another path to continue improving computing density, and glass-based solutions are the next-generation approach heavily bet on in this area. This kind of layout may not show immediate results, but it is a bet on the future way computing power will be supported. The AI story has never been limited to just Nvidia; looking a bit more upstream and downstream often reveals things others haven't priced in yet. Let's watch and see.Complete Preview of US July Nonfarm Payroll Data (Beijing Time August 7, 20:30 Release
⚠️All projections are for market logic reference only and do not constitute any investment advice
I. Basic Information
1. Release Time: Tonight 20:30 (Beijing Daylight Time)
2. Core Market Expectations
- Nonfarm Payroll Additions: Expected 83,000, Previous 57,000
- Unemployment Rate: Expected 4.2% (unchanged)
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM: 0.3%; YoY: 3.5%
3. Leading Signal (ADP Small Nonfarm) only 44,000, significantly weak; market generally expects employment to cool down slowly.
4. Core Significance: The first major employment report after the Federal Reserve's late July meeting, directly pricing in the probability of a September Fed rate hike or hold, with a strong impact on tech, memory chips, SOXL, KORU, and other highly sensitive sectors.
II. Three Scenarios + Corresponding Asset Performance (Focus on Micron MU, SK Hynix, KORU)
Scenario 1: Nonfarm significantly stronger than expected (>120,000, wages rising) [Hawkish]
Logic: Overheated employment, rising inflation pressure, market raises September rate hike probability, US Treasury yields rise.
✅ Asset Reaction:
USD strengthens, US Treasury yields rise
❌ Negative: Nasdaq, semiconductors, memory sectors (Micron, SK Hynix under pressure), SOXL, KORU leveraged ETFs prone to sharp declines
Operation Reminder: High-valuation growth sectors under pressure, avoid chasing leveraged products in the short term.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm significantly weaker than expected (<50,000, unemployment rises) [Dovish]
Logic: Employment clearly cooling, rate hike expectations quickly ease, yields decline.
✅ Positive: Growth stocks, semiconductors, memory sectors, SOXL, KORU have rebound potential
⚠️ Important Trap: Refer to June historical market!
Even if data is cold, if funds use the good news to take profits at highs, there can be a scenario of falling rates but chip prices dropping, a high-low switch; avoid blindly going long.
Scenario 3: Data near expectations (70,000~95,000, neutral)
Market Interpretation: Employment slows moderately, status quo maintained, no major change in rate expectations.
Market Performance: Initial rapid stop-loss sweeps (both long and short hit), then return to original sector themes (memory sector continues to follow spot prices and corporate earnings sentiment).
Main Feature: High volatility, many false breakouts, not suitable for heavy positions immediately after open.
III. Exclusive Tips for Your Key Holdings
1. Memory Chips (Micron MU, SK Hynix, SNDK SanDisk)
High duration growth stocks, most sensitive to US Treasury yields;
Strong nonfarm = direct pressure; weak nonfarm theoretically positive but need to observe if funds are willing to return to chip sector.
2. KORU (3x leveraged long Korea KOSPI)
Highly tied to SK Hynix, dual volatility: Korean semiconductor sentiment + US macro interest rates, volatility will significantly increase on nonfarm night, high risk of leverage decay + bidirectional volatility.
3. SOXL 3x Semiconductor ETF
Nonfarm night often shows "opening spike then reversal," avoid heavy bets on a single direction.
IV. Practical Trading Discipline (Must-Read for Nonfarm)
1. Liquidity disorder 15 minutes before and after data release, many spikes and false breakouts, avoid immediate chasing, wait 15~30 minutes for trend to form;
2. Leveraged ETFs (SOXL/KORU) strictly prohibit holding overnight without stop loss to gamble on data;
3. Do not bet on a single direction, market often moves "expectation priced in, then reverses on release";
4. Besides new jobs, wage data and previous value revisions often have greater impact than main data, do not focus on a single number.
V. Simple Monitoring Sequence
20:30 Data release → First check wages + employment revisions → Observe 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuations → Then watch Nasdaq, Philadelphia Semiconductor SOX reaction → Finally transmit to Micron, Hynix, KORU. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Uniswap launches a token issuance platform, where the $UNI mechanism locks the initial liquidity of new assets directly in the v4 pool. The funding flow from initial issuance to the secondary market is reconnected, and liquidity is no longer scattered across external routes. If the new asset continues to generate high-frequency turnover, both fee accumulation and pool depth will rise simultaneously. Once subsequent tokens lack transactions causing the pool to dry up, the on-chain daily turnover rate and accumulated fund size will directly reflect this decline.
#CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解 #伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？Hong Kong stocks in the large model concept collectively soared today, MINIMAX rose nearly 25%, Zhipu rose over 17%, US stocks AI hit new highs, and gold also hit new highs, but only crypto remained completely still. Some people see others rising elsewhere and firmly believe "$BTC should catch up," then go all in waiting for the wind. The trend has its biases; money flows to the strongest narratives — right now that place is AI and storage, not crypto. It's normal to feel itchy watching others make money, but others' games are not your games. Holding onto the table you understand is more important than chasing a market that doesn't belong to you. CLARITY bill delayed until September, has the biggest positive catalyst for the crypto market fallen through?
This morning's news: The U.S. Senate has decided to postpone the vote on the CLARITY bill until September. This bill was originally scheduled for the last window before the August 10 summer recess, but now it has been pushed to the fall.
Actual impact on $BTC and $ETH
Short term: Bearish. Prices won’t move much during the day but a weak trend will persist for a day or two. Hedge funds might use this as a reason to reduce some positions. But no crash, because the real variable is tonight’s 8:30 PM Nonfarm Payrolls.
Mid term: Neutral. The bill is postponed to September, not canceled. If it miraculously passes in September, the reaction will be bigger than if it passed in August because market expectations have already been priced in at the lowest. But the probability of passing within 2026 continues to decline.
Long term: The fundamentals remain unchanged. The CLARITY bill is a catalyst, not the foundation. The foundation consists of ETFs, mining companies, institutional allocations—these structural variables remain unchanged. The delay of the CLARITY bill won’t cause the crypto industry to collapse; it will just stay in the gray area for another year.
The bigger hedge comes from tonight’s Nonfarm Payrolls. The CLARITY bill is a structural long-term positive, while tonight’s Nonfarm is a short-term macro driver. When a long-term negative and a short-term variable appear simultaneously, the market usually digests the short-term variable first, then slowly absorbs the long-term negative. BTC was trading sideways around 64400 during the session, ETH around 1900, with no crash, indicating the market has treated the CLARITY bill delay as known information and did not trigger panic.
#CLARITY投票或延至9月，伦理分歧未解
#俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效，交易与支付边界明确
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Relative strength for crypto insiders: In the past 24 hours, $BTC has basically been flat, $ETH slightly up, and $SOL leading the decline by about 1%, making SOL the weakest among the three. Combined with a mild shift to positive funding rates, low open interest, and a slight discount of Coinbase versus Binance, this looks more like rotation of existing funds among the legs rather than new inflows. The combination of low OI and low volatility usually means the direction is waiting for an external trigger—the nonfarm payroll report tonight is the top candidate. Data won't play along with you; before the direction is confirmed, position yourself according to the strength ranking.$BTC
$SKHYNIX
$ETH
Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls: The Sweet Spot for US Stocks and Gold
I mentioned last night that gold wouldn't move so quickly, hope I didn't mislead you.
At 20:30 tonight, the US will release the July nonfarm payroll report.
The current mainstream market expectation is about 80,000 new nonfarm jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Last month's nonfarm was only 57,000, and April and May employment figures were revised down by a combined 74,000.
So I think what's more important than the exact number is whether US employment is cooling down or rapidly deteriorating.
This nonfarm report is very important.
The market is currently facing a tricky combination: employment is cooling, but inflation hasn't truly been resolved.
The Federal Reserve's current federal funds target range remains 3.50%—3.75%.
The Fed has clearly stated that inflation remains above the 2% target, with supply shocks like energy being a significant factor.
Recently, oil prices have risen again, pushing inflation risks back up.
As of Thursday, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to about 4.67%.
Reuters reported that the market had priced in about a 57% chance of a rate hike in September.
So tonight's nonfarm report is really about whether the Fed still has room to raise rates.
Leading indicators have already shown some weakness.
Job openings in June fell to 7.359 million. Although hiring has picked up somewhat, the US job market is increasingly resembling a "Low Hire, Low Fire" scenario.
Companies aren't hiring much, but there are no large-scale layoffs either.
The latest initial jobless claims are only 199,000, with layoffs down to a two-year low.
So I currently lean toward US employment gradually losing momentum.
Three possible scenarios
I'm just a student in the market like everyone else, so I can only offer possibilities, not definitive scripts.
First scenario: Nonfarm clearly exceeds 100,000—120,000
If employment is significantly stronger than expected, with the unemployment rate holding around 4.2% and wages also strong, the market will reinforce the narrative:
Strong employment → Fed has room to hike → US Treasury yields rise → Dollar strengthens → Risk asset valuations come under pressure.
In this case, I think the hardest hit will be high-valuation tech, software, semiconductors, and high-beta growth stocks in US equities.
Of course, this includes your favorite storage stocks, $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, etc.
Crypto will also likely come under pressure.
Because BTC is increasingly like a global liquidity asset.
What really affects it most are real interest rates and the dollar.
Rising Treasury yields are uncomfortable for both BTC and altcoins.
Gold may see a noticeable pullback.
A similar situation occurred in June this year: strong employment data pushed up rate hike expectations, and gold fell about 3% that day.
Second scenario: Nonfarm around 50,000—90,000
This is the result I think the market prefers.
Employment continues to cool but doesn't collapse.
This means no recession, but the Fed's need to hike rates further diminishes.
If wages don't unexpectedly rise and unemployment holds at 4.2%—4.3%, then Treasury yields and the dollar have room to fall.
This environment is actually comfortable for all three asset classes.
US stocks: positive for growth and tech stock valuations
Crypto: liquidity pressure eases, BTC, ETH, and high-beta assets likely to rebound
Gold: real rates and the dollar decline, while macro uncertainty remains, making it a relatively ideal combination
In other words, what the market wants to see tonight is a nonfarm report that's just a little disappointing.
Third scenario: Near zero or even negative growth
This might not be a big positive.
If nonfarm suddenly approaches zero or turns negative, and unemployment jumps above 4.4%, the market narrative shifts from: "Fed doesn't need to hike" to "Is the US heading into recession?"
At this stage, Treasury yields may fall rapidly, and gold usually gets strong support.
But US stocks and crypto may not fare well.
Because expectations of rate cuts only solve valuation issues, not declining corporate profits or economic recession.
So after very poor data, an interesting pattern often emerges:
US stocks rise first due to falling rate expectations; then fall as the market starts pricing in recession.
Crypto may be even more sensitive.
Because in true risk-off phases, BTC often deleverages alongside the Nasdaq and risk assets in the short term.
Don't just focus on the nonfarm number tonight
Nonfarm → prior revisions → unemployment rate → wages → Treasury yields
Especially prior revisions.
One of last month's biggest warnings was the combined 74,000 downward revision to April and May employment data.
If tonight's nonfarm is 80,000, seemingly meeting expectations, but the previous two months are revised down by 70-80,000,
then the actual implication might be more dovish than a simple below-expectation number.
Ultimately, all these data points boil down to one indicator: how the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields move.
Because for tonight's trading, nonfarm is just the first layer.
Nonfarm affects the Fed, the Fed affects Treasury yields, Treasury yields affect the dollar and global liquidity, and finally that transmits to US stocks, gold, and crypto.
So tonight I think the best outcome is employment continues to cool, but the US economy doesn't break down.
That is currently the most comfortable sweet spot for US stocks, crypto, and gold The $CORE community is flooded with a hot article titled "CORE is the severely underestimated 'biological son' of Bitcoin," a well-packaged BTCFi narrative attracting many retail investors to stop and take notice.
Many newcomers are immediately tempted after reading it, firmly believing that now is the golden bottom-buying opportunity.
Unpacking this marketing blind box, beneath the glossy promotional shell lie layers of carefully designed logical traps.
First layer of packaging: Relying on Bitcoin's hash power, it has Bitcoin-level network security.
The truth is a typical word game.
Miner hash power delegation purely chases CORE token rewards, which is just a short-term business with no permanent binding. When profits decline, hash power can collectively withdraw at any time.
Bitcoin's hash power does not provide security protection for CORE; the two public chains are independent.
The so-called hash power moat is just a label for external hype. Many promotions deliberately confuse concepts, misleading investors to think that by leveraging BTC hash power, they have the same level of security.
Second layer of packaging: CORE is Bitcoin's "biological son," enjoying native bloodline dividends.
This is the easiest cognitive misdirection to trap newcomers.
Bitcoin Core (the official Bitcoin client) and CoreDAO $CORE have no connection whatsoever, nor any intersection with Satoshi Nakamoto or Bitcoin's early development team.
The project is just an independent public chain, borrowing Bitcoin miner resources to tell a story, forcibly riding on Bitcoin's lineage to create associations.
The native Bitcoin community has long been skeptical of such hash power-riding narratives; the "biological son" is a marketing persona fabricated from start to finish.
Third layer of packaging: Fully compatible with EVM, Ethereum DeFi projects can easily migrate, and the ecosystem will soon explode.
EVM compatibility has long been a basic threshold for public chains and is not an exclusive advantage.
Whether developers migrate depends mainly on on-chain liquidity and real user base, not just code compatibility.
The reality is very clear: since launch, there is a lack of flagship native applications, on-chain active users are scarce, and transaction fee revenue remains persistently low.
Having an entry ticket does not equate to retaining developers and incremental capital.
Fourth layer of packaging: BTCFi is a trillion-dollar blue ocean, and CORE will steadily share a huge market dividend.
The BTCFi track is already fiercely competitive, with Bitcoin Layer 2s, various BTC staking protocols, and multiple competing public chains all vying for position.
A vast blue ocean track does not mean any single project can naturally get a slice of the pie.
Relying solely on continuously refreshed narratives without a steady influx of funds and developers makes it difficult to break through intense competition.
At the bottom of the blind box, the trump card all tweets deliberately avoid:
The token supply is huge, with linear unlocking over decades, long-term selling pressure always present; the token price has crashed over 99% from its peak, with massive high-level trapped positions piled up above.
The ecosystem operation heavily depends on token inflation subsidies, with weak endogenous profitability on-chain. Once market heat cools, the reward-driven participation model faces huge pressure, liquidity is weak, and large capital inflows and outflows are very difficult.
There is also a long-lasting brainwashing view: long-term bottom consolidation = value depression, bound to surge sooner or later.
The harsh reality is: many tokens have been stuck in low-level oscillation for years, never breaking out into a trending market.
The bottom is just a price level and cannot be directly equated with opportunity. Market reversals require multiple conditions resonating: ecosystem landing, incremental capital, and sector tailwinds; there is no rule that consolidation must lead to a rise.
Objectively speaking, the Satoshi Plus consensus can be seen as a technical attempt in the BTC fusion direction and can be continuously observed.
But it is crucial to distinguish:
Technical exploration ≠ investment value; long-term narrative vision ≠ real landing results.
The crypto marketing cycle repeats: constantly creating new concepts, building new personas, using distant future imagination to support current prices. When old narratives fade, new stories immediately appear. The essence is to stabilize current holders and attract outside capital.
Interactive question:
A. The Bitcoin biological son narrative has long-term potential, and a market reversal is expected.
B. Purely carefully packaged marketing rhetoric is unlikely to break the long-term pressured pattern.
⚠️This is only a market opinion exchange and discussion, not any investment or trading advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; stay away from contract leverage and control positions rationally. Following a solid piece of hard news that's easy to overlook. TSMC and Yang Ming Chiao Tung University have developed a single-layer molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) top-gate transistor, with results published in Nature Electronics. The direction is to break through the physical limits of Moore's Law. In plain language: as silicon materials near their limits, whoever first achieves mass production with new materials will hold the pricing power for the next decade. This kind of fundamental breakthrough won't affect the short-term K-line, but it determines the ceiling for the entire computing power and storage chain in three to five years. The real big narrative often starts emerging from the lab—protect your ammunition and watch slowly.Against the backdrop of capital concentrating on computing power infrastructure, Firmus completed a $2 billion financing round, pushing its valuation up to $10.5 billion. The core issue lies in whether the massive capital expenditure can be converted into cash flow on schedule and support the continued expansion of long positions.
From the market facts, Firmus was valued at $5.5 billion in April this year. This time, through a $2 billion equity financing, the valuation nearly doubled to $10.5 billion. Investors in this round include $NVDA and Coatue Management, while also attracting Blackstone's $BX fund and Jane Street. Its business is based on the Nvidia DSX AI Factory reference architecture signed at the end of June, delivering cloud services to the Southgate project in the Asia-Pacific and Australia, as well as the Indonesia project, through hardware procurement.
From the transmission chain perspective, the order of driving factors is: primary market hardware procurement reconfirming $NVDA's supply chain performance, Wall Street market makers and private equity giants raising their position risk appetite, and inflation and capital occupation risks caused by the long construction cycle of computing power centers. The valuation doubling from $5.5 billion to $10.5 billion within a few months means funds are shifting from secondary market observation to primary infrastructure leverage, temporarily increasing the overall risk appetite of the AI sector.
In the bullish scenario, the trigger condition is the smooth commissioning of the Project Southgate in the Asia-Pacific region and the Indonesia computing power node, converting into cloud service cash flow income. Variables to watch include equipment delivery cycles and cloud service subscription rates. If the supply chain delivery is unobstructed and computing power leasing demand is strong, this monetization pace will confirm the lock-up logic of institutional funds like $BX, driving related hardware suppliers and infrastructure sector positions to increase; if delivery is delayed, this bullish logic immediately fails.
In the bearish scenario, the trigger condition is that regional computing power center construction encounters supply chain bottlenecks or compliance review obstacles, causing the $2 billion capital expenditure to fail to generate positive returns within the scheduled period. Variables to observe include regional regulatory policy trends and the squeeze on operating profit margins from high utility costs. If capital returns fall below expectations, the massive expenditure will become a balance sheet burden, triggering phased stop-loss decoupling of Wall Street institutions from computing power infrastructure positions; if funds quickly complete a second refinancing, this downside warning is temporarily lifted.
When market tolerance for the computing power Capex cycle changes, the failure condition depends on whether the Capex squeeze effect of Asia-Pacific computing power facility construction triggers broader inflation expectations and interest rate revaluation. Once high construction costs cannot be covered by downstream subscription revenue, institutional long positions will face deleveraging pressure.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the actual delivery nodes of the hardware procurement supply chain and the position changes of major participating institutions in the public market.
#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到Trump imposed tariffs and minimum import prices on imported polysilicon and derivatives under Section 232, nominally to protect the domestic solar and semiconductor supply chains. From a data perspective, there are two transmission effects: first, the cost of domestic components in the U.S. will be raised, which is a short-term benefit for domestic production capacity and a disadvantage for downstream sectors relying on imports; second, the global polysilicon trade flow will be redistributed, but since Chinese manufacturers' exports to the U.S. already account for a very low proportion, the direct impact is limited. What really needs to be watched is whether this will spill over to a broader list of semiconductor materials. When it comes to tariffs, looking at the details of the provisions is always more important than just the headline.$BTC $ETH $SNDK 周四美股三大指数涨跌不一 存储芯片板块成了重灾区 闪迪和西部数据双双大跌 SpaceX反而在千亿解禁压力下逆市收高 核心就一句话 市场对业绩的容忍度已经归零 闪迪跌了快7个点 西部数据重挫13个点 财报超预期是标配 市场要的是再超预期 闪迪营收指引偏弱 毛利率有见顶迹象 高盛直接下调目标价 西部数据也一样 业绩好不够 得完美才行 稍微有个瑕疵 资金就砸 SpaceX反而涨了6个点 宣布自建天然气发电厂和大型电池阵列为半导体设施供电 市场把这个解读成了长期成本控制信号 空头回补把股价推上去了 存储板块连续被砸 对加密市场来说不是好消息 BTC最近的走势已经说明问题了 美股科技股一有风吹草动 币圈就跟着紧张 存储是AI硬件里最核心的环节之一 板块持续承压说明AI叙事在降温 资金在从高弹性资产往更确定的方向挪 这对BTC来说意味着短期缺乏清晰的宏观催化剂 61000到62000这个区间大概率还得磨一磨 市场对业绩的审视已经严苛到极致 超预期是标配 符合预期或偏弱就是砸盘 这种环境下 增量资金很难大规模回流风险资产 除非美联储释放明确的宽松信号 现在不是看谁涨得$ZBT Although there was no loss this time, mistakes were still made.
There are two reasons for the mistakes this time: first, refusing to set a stop loss led to being stuck with over 40 points. The second reason is that during strong upward momentum, I assumed it was a take-profit pullback point.
This time, I opened a short at 0.152 with a stop loss at 0.16. But I couldn't bring myself to cut the loss. I was stuck overnight, luckily the position was small, as the main force was aggressively dumping.
The strategy this time was to open at 0.152 and take profit at 0.132.
The trading logic this time: starting from around 0.1, the first upward phase began, then it reached a consolidation area, and after breaking through the range for the second time, it started rising again. The proper short position should have been at 0.152 or 0.16, or even during the second pullback, but I assumed and placed the order wrongly, resulting in being stuck.
Mistake: still refusing to set a stop loss!
Shorting during strong upward momentum. I always arrogantly think that after a big rise, it will fall, that after rising so high, it will top out and short. In reality, when the altcoin season arrives or when facing a strong main player, a rally lasting one or two weeks is not a problem.
Wishful thinking has once again caused me harm. Now many people are starting to say: "The biggest negative for SPCX has already passed."
Really?
On the contrary, I think the focus now should not be on the unlocking, but on when the 910 million shares will truly start to be realized.
Many people always assume that if there is no sell-off on the unlocking day, it means the negative impact has landed.
But the reality is, there is no rule that those who get the shares must sell on the first day.
If they don't sell today, they can sell tomorrow; if not this week, they can sell next week.
What really affects the price is never the unlocking itself, but when someone starts to lead in realizing profits.
As long as a new negative appears in the market, these shares could become the fuse that breaks the sentiment, and once panic spreads, selling pressure will only increase.
Previously, a single "I think so." already made many chase above $120.
So I have never changed my view; around 105 is still the level I am watching.
The price is still at 114 now, so I am not in a hurry to cut losses.
Because there are not many people in the market who can hold long-term; most are still watching.
When the profit-making effect disappears, those watching are likely the next batch to sell.
Do you think $SPCX's biggest test has already passed, or is it just beginning now?
I believe the real risk for $SPCX is not over yet; unlocking is just the start and does not mean selling pressure has been fully released.
My basis:
This time, 910 million shares enter circulation. Unlocking only allows shares to be sold; it does not mean everyone will sell immediately. Many funds will wait for better prices, news, or sentiment to realize profits. Once a new negative appears, selling pressure may be released all at once.
When trading, don't just look at the words "unlocking landed," but also observe whether the shares have truly been realized and whether market sentiment has changed. Often, the real decline does not happen on the day the negative is announced, but after everyone thinks the negative is over.
My principle is simple: first look at the shares, then the sentiment, and finally the story. Talking about a narrative-driven trend, let's watch as it unfolds. The Hong Kong stock market's large model concept took off directly today, with MINIMAX rising nearly 25% and Zhipu up over 17%—this wave is not isolated. The US stock market's AI hit new highs earlier, and valuations in the primary market are also pushing up, with the secondary market just following the lead. The logic is that capital has recognized "AI as the strongest narrative in this cycle," spreading from computing power and storage all the way to applications and model layers. The implication for crypto is very direct: the same batch of risk-tolerant money is now prioritizing AI. If crypto wants a piece of the pie, it must first prove it has a new narrative. Those who understand know—money is very honest.A couple of days ago, I flipped my storage position from short to long and increased my position size. Today, US storage stocks pulled back, and some are waiting to see a joke. But what I look at is the fundamentals, not the day's sentiment: Elon Musk said memory demand growth far exceeds supply, Winbond Electronics' Q2 net profit surged 256 times, and customers are already scrambling to book capacity for 2030. Supply is so tight that capacity needs to be locked in four years in advance; this is not something a single day's stock price can disprove. The meaning of a low-frequency large bet is—if the thesis isn't broken, don't average down or add on a pullback, just hold. $MU, are you switching directions or still holding last week's short position? Crypto has cooled off after a solid start to the month. Traders are sitting on their hands, and the reason is simple: everyone is waiting for clearer rules out of Washington. The CLARITY Act is the main story right now. It’s meant to give digital assets a more defined regulatory home in the U.S., but Senate delays and disagreements have left the market in limbo. Institutions especially seem content to wait rather than push hard into new positions until the picture gets clearer. Markets hate unceThe latest customs data is worth noting: China's integrated circuit exports reached $38.7 billion in July, with a cumulative $216 billion from January to July, nearly doubling year-on-year (+99.5%). Behind this figure is the real global demand for memory and logic chips, not just sentiment. In the same week, Nvidia reportedly cut HBM capacity for Rubin Ultra, and Winbond revealed customers have already booked production capacity through 2030—supply side is calling out shortages, export side is ramping up, both pointing to the same thing. $MU pulled back today in the US stock market, more due to position-level squeeze than a fundamental shift. What’s your take on which stage this memory cycle is currently at? $BTC short-term trend, current price is around 64,126.
From the moving averages:
WMA5: 64,126.6
WMA10: 64,184.9
WMA20: 64,216.0
The current price is basically hugging WMA5 but below WMA10 and WMA20, indicating the short-term has not turned strong again and is in a weak rebound consolidation.
Key levels:
Upper resistance: 64,400—64,600
Strong resistance: around 65,000
Lower support: around 64,086
Stronger support: around 63,880
The chart shows a rise to 65,026 followed by a pullback, indicating obvious selling pressure above 65,000. Although there was a rebound afterward, the highs are gradually decreasing, showing a weak short-term structure.
RSI is also important:
RSI6: 32.06, close to short-term oversold
RSI12: 41.29, weak
RSI24: 47.97, neutral to weak
This indicates the short-term drop is not light, a small rebound may occur, but the trend has not reversed yet. To truly turn strong, it must at least retake 64,400—64,600 and have WMA5 cross above WMA10 and WMA20. $BTC Good morning $SPCX workers, it seems my view last night was correct. So what if shares are unlocked? If a company has a very promising future, it will definitely attract capital investment, and the price will still rise.
The stock market is not a casino; it is long-term value investing. Time will prove everything, and short-term speculators will inevitably be washed out.
Of course, those who play short-term are gamblers, like me, an insignificant small citizen. I admit I am a gambler; I can't do long-term value investing, so I can only play short-term speculation.
Five or ten years is too long; I only earn day by day. I believe most people like me come to the crypto world to get rich quickly. So what? Only the results matter, not the process. I am also a US stock trader; life is a gamble everywhere.
Although it has risen a bit, short-term traders still need to control their positions and never put themselves in a low margin situation. Make sure to sleep at night, don’t stay up late. Losing some money is okay; health is the most important. After Western Digital released its earnings report, although the overall performance exceeded expectations, the stock price plunged sharply due to a cautious outlook and profit margin statements for the next quarter; SanDisk also retreated after surpassing earnings expectations because the midpoint of its revenue guidance for the next fiscal quarter was below market consensus, causing the storage sector to collectively come under pressure. The pressure spread to Asian markets, with South Korea's KOSPI sharply falling intraday dragged down by semiconductor weights, SK Hynix experiencing a flash crash in pre-market trading, and Samsung Electronics also under pressure. Meanwhile, Nvidia is reportedly evaluating reducing some memory configurations of Rubin Ultra to cope with tight supply of high-end HBM. The market has begun to revisit the discussion: Is the tight supply and demand in storage a positive factor supporting prices, or a constraint that may limit AI chip shipments and sector valuations? Coupled with multiple single-day sharp declines in leveraged products like Southern's double-long SK Hynix, the AI storage market is transitioning from a "supply shortage narrative" to a phase of testing whether high expectations can be fulfilled. $UNI has officially entered the launchpad.
The newly launched Pools (pools.trade) is a new token launch platform created by Uniswap Labs specifically for Robinhood Chain. The core selling points are strong: zero launchpad commission, permanently locked liquidity (anti-rug), built-in anti-sniping mechanism, and two modes—Crowd Launch fair auction and Instant Launch. All new tokens directly land in Uniswap v4 pools and inherit the entire Uniswap traffic entrance.
This is not a small move.
Recently, Uniswap already launched a "Launches" aggregation page in the app, collecting new tokens from launchpads like Bankr and Pons. In July, over 340,000 new tokens and $3.6 billion in trading volume ran through Uniswap-related launchpads on Robinhood Chain. Now, by directly running its own launchpad, it means controlling the entire chain from "token issuance → discovery → trading."
For UNI, this could be a new narrative:
From a pure DEX to "token issuance + trading infrastructure."
Early trading volume, fees, and network effects will be further amplified, especially now that protocol fee switches are turned on.
Of course, the launchpad sector is already highly competitive, and whether it can truly scale depends on user migration and cross-chain expansion speed.
But the direction is very clear—Uniswap doesn’t want to be just a trading venue; it wants to be a traffic gateway. $UNI #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ Two important things this week: one is the Clarity Act, and the other is the Nonfarm Payrolls. Act: If it passes, $BTC will likely surge above seventy thousand. However, it is highly probable that it won't pass before the recess.
Nonfarm Payrolls: The FOMC meeting on the 30th will mark the fifth consecutive time the interest rate remains unchanged. There is no FOMC meeting in August, so the next rate decision will be on September 15-16. Therefore, the 7th is the first piece of the puzzle for the September meeting, followed by the CPI on the 12th and the PCE on the 26th.
Currently, interest rate futures show about a 64%-68% chance of a rate hike in September. The Nonfarm Payrolls data will directly determine whether this probability surges to 80% or falls below 50%.
We have already hit the bottom; no matter how it goes, it's upward for $BTC $ETH #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 Fundamental Research Report $CAKE / PancakeSwap (DeFi) $3.20
To put it simply: PancakeSwap ($CAKE) has an overall score of 54/100, rated as narrative-driven over execution. Breaking it down into three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
PancakeSwap (token $CAKE) operates in the DeFi sector. It is the leading BSC DEX. Competitors include UNI and SUSHI. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commissions and users do not control their data. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction value is $50-500/month, requiring settlement in USDC or fiat. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: the protocol layer is officially running, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. The latest version was not found; there were 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
On the user side, monthly active addresses (MAU) and daily active users (DAU) are undisclosed; 24h trading volume is $80.00M; TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supplier income is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes); protocol treasury income is $2.00M; token holders have no annualized buyback and burn mechanism. The 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, and protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. On the code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A); token private and public sales can be checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A); market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs; technical integration is grade B based on API/SDK evidence; strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment; exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000; circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%); FDV $4.20B; next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating supply); no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, with moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (using uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): Circulating market cap: PancakeSwap $3.00B, UNI undisclosed, SUSHI undisclosed. FDV: PancakeSwap $4.20B, UNI undisclosed, SUSHI undisclosed. Annual revenue: PancakeSwap $2.00M, UNI undisclosed, SUSHI undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: PancakeSwap undisclosed, UNI undisclosed, SUSHI undisclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV to revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. In summary: fundamentals are solid (score 54/100). Token value capture is realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overpricing expectations; FDV is moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlocks causing price dumps, protocol income long-term dropping to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key metrics to watch: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information and does not constitute buy or sell advice. If core financial indicators deviate by more than 30%, conclusions need reassessment.
This concludes this research report. If you find it useful, please follow.
#FundamentalResearch #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit⚡️Breaking! Japan has directly established a new department specifically to manage crypto, and large withdrawals will require an additional review⚡️
On August 7, Japan's Financial Services Agency officially established the "Crypto Assets and Stablecoins Division," and at the same time, in cooperation with the National Police Agency, required all exchanges to implement 11 withdrawal restrictions — withdrawal addresses must be pre-registered, and coins bought with deposits cannot be freely withdrawn for a certain period. The Travel Rule has also expanded to 63 jurisdictions starting August 3.
Some call this bearish, but looking closely — this is not about banning withdrawals, but making withdrawals more complicated. What Japan is doing is setting the rules to pave the way for institutional funds.1. Market Overview: Earnings Explosion, Stock Price Falls 6.81%
On August 7 (Thursday), SanDisk (SNDK) closed down 6.81% at $1,258.58, with a trading volume as high as $24 billion, ranking 4th in U.S. stock trading volume that day. The storage chip sector was collectively under pressure, with Western Digital plummeting over 13%, SK Hynix down nearly 5%, and Micron Technology falling over 1%. On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower: the Dow Jones fell 0.85%, ending a five-day winning streak, the S&P 500 dropped 0.18%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.06%.
2. Core Logic: Impressive Earnings Overshadowed by Weak Guidance
SanDisk released its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings after market close on August 5:
Strong performance exceeding expectations:
· Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 51%, far exceeding the expected $8.394 billion
· Adjusted EPS of $39.25, beating the expected $34.96
· Gross margin reached 84.6%, a significant year-over-year increase of 58.2 percentage points
· Full-year revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year
· Data center business revenue surged 437% for the year, highlighting sustained growth in AI infrastructure and enterprise storage demand
But the earnings guidance dampened market enthusiasm:
· Next quarter revenue guidance of $10.3–10.8 billion (midpoint $10.55 billion), below analysts’ expectation of $10.8 billion
· Adjusted EPS guidance of $44–46 (midpoint $45), slightly below the expected $45.58
· Gross margin guidance of 83%–85%, roughly flat quarter-over-quarter, interpreted by the market as a signal of peak profitability
Goldman Sachs research team noted: "Market expectations have been overly elevated; a muted future guidance will be interpreted as a negative signal."
3. Institutions Sharply Lower Target Prices
After the earnings release, multiple institutions quickly lowered SanDisk’s target price:
Institution Previous Target Price New Target Price Rating
Citi $2,500 $2,100 Maintain Buy
Jefferies $3,000 $1,750 —
Wells Fargo $1,620 $1,400 —
SanDisk’s stock price has retraced about 47% from the June 22 high of $2,354.39.
4. Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels
Current key supports (from near to far):
Level Support Range Description
First Support $1,230 - $1,250 Fibonacci key retracement level
Second Support $1,180 - $1,200 Low area tested multiple times on August 6-7
Third Support $1,160 - $1,163 Intraday low on August 7
Lower Targets $1,150 / $1,220 / $1,000 Sequential targets after breaking below 1,160
The $1,230–$1,250 range is the most critical defense zone currently—holding it offers a chance to start an oversold rebound; if $1,163 is decisively broken, the lower targets of $1,150 and even the $1,000 round number will be tested sequentially.
Resistance above:
· $1,270–$1,290: previous support turned strong resistance
· $1,320–$1,450: a breakout here would target $1,500–$1,600 further
SanDisk is currently in a daily-level downtrend: price is well below all moving averages across timeframes, and the 1-hour moving averages show a bearish alignment, confirming the bearish structure. The current rebound is still an oversold correction and has not yet reversed the trend.
5. Summary
SanDisk’s sharp drop on August 7 essentially represents a "valuation correction after expectations were overextended"—over the past 12 months, SanDisk’s cumulative rise was about 3,000%, with the market fully pricing in the AI storage demand boom. Although Q4 earnings were explosive, the guidance failed to meet the extremely high expectations, combined with concerns about peak gross margin, leading to concentrated profit-taking. $SNDK #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元，AI投入压力升温 #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Recently, storage stocks have been a bit of a "roller coaster." Western Digital and SanDisk had good earnings reports, but their stock prices plummeted due to overly cautious future expectations.
This dragged down South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung as well.
The core issue is simple: AI is booming, high-end HBM memory is in short supply, and even NVIDIA is trying to conserve usage.
The market is starting to worry whether this "shortage" is genuine demand or just overhyped speculation.
Simply put, the previous phase was a blind optimism of "as long as it’s related to AI, it will rise," and now we have entered a verification period where "performance speaks." Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but AI's demand for storage is real; it just needs time to digest the rapid growth.
$SKHYNIX $SNDK $NVDA
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Storage, has it really peaked?
The storage sector is experiencing a "performance sell-off"
SanDisk $SNDK and Western Digital both exceeded earnings expectations, but their shares plunged 9%-15% after hours, with SK Hynix, Samsung, and others also falling sharply.
This strange pattern of "the better the earnings, the harsher the sell-off" has repeatedly appeared recently.
Has it really peaked? The answer is: the fundamentals have not peaked, AI demand remains strong, but market expectations have "peaked."
The reasons are:
1. Expectations are overextended: stock prices have already priced in strong earnings in advance, so the earnings release exhausts the positive news.
2. Concerns about sustainability: high profits are a cyclical peak caused by supply-demand mismatch, and the market worries about slowing growth and overcapacity ahead.
3. The elephant dancing is hard to sustain: doubling growth is difficult to maintain long-term, and valuation logic has been "killed" in phases.
In the short term, the sector is in a phase of emotional clearing and valuation correction, with high risk in the game; but the long-term logic supported by AI remains intact, requiring patience to wait for a new cycle after panic selling pressure ends.
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound I am Cige. The earnings season for the storage sector has sent a clear signal: performance can shatter the ceiling, but stock prices still fall.
Explosive earnings are just the entry ticket; guidance is the pricing anchor.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, far exceeding the expected $8.39 billion; adjusted EPS was $39.25, and gross margin hit a record high of 84.6%. Western Digital's revenue was $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year, also beating expectations. Both companies delivered impeccable results, yet SanDisk fell 7% after hours, and Western Digital dropped 11%.
The core reason is only one: the guidance was not impressive enough. SanDisk's next quarter revenue outlook is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion, below FactSet's expectation of $11.148 billion. Western Digital also faced disappointment for being "not impressive enough." Citi lowered SanDisk's target price from $2500 to $2100. The market wants not just "good," but "better than expected." When expectations are already at the ceiling, any number less than "perfect" will be punished.
Three forces crushing the sector are fermenting simultaneously.
The sell-off of SanDisk and Western Digital quickly spread through the entire storage chain. Kioxia and SK Hynix plunged over 10%, Samsung Electronics dropped over 6%. The KOSPI index's decline widened to 5%, SK Hynix fell over 9%, Samsung Electronics dropped over 6%. Daishin Securities clearly pointed out that SanDisk's below-expectation earnings guidance weakened market confidence in the storage chip industry, and the semiconductor sector's sharp correction was the main reason for the KOSPI's decline that day.
NVIDIA is evaluating reducing Rubin Ultra's HBM configuration from HBM4e 12Hi down to 8Hi or other options. #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound SpaceX passed its first unlock test, but not yet its valuation test.
Shares rose 6.1% to $114.92 on Aug 6 even as up to 911.5M shares became eligible for sale, more than the roughly 638.9M shares sold in its IPO. The rebound followed a nearly 14% drop the previous day, while the stock remains below its $135 offering price.
Its first post-IPO earnings report delivered a clear top-line beat:
· Revenue reached $7.8B, up more than 90% YoY
· Net loss narrowed to $541M, or $0.09 per share, less than half analysts expected
· AI revenue reached $2.56B, up 247% YoY
SpaceX now reports AI as a core segment following its February acquisition of xAI, bringing xAI, Grok and X into the broader business.
But Starlink remains the current revenue engine. The connectivity segment generated $4.29B, up 66% YoY and accounting for more than half of total revenue, while Starlink subscribers doubled to around 12M.
The spending side changed the conversation. Total quarterly capex climbed to about $18.3B, with roughly $15.8B directed toward AI infrastructure, more than double the previous quarter and significantly above current quarterly AI revenue.
That comparison does not capture the multi-year value of infrastructure, but it shows the scale of the upfront buildout. Investors are increasingly separating rapid AI demand from the cost of delivering it.
The unlock also requires context. Shares becoming eligible for sale does not mean all of them were sold on Aug 6. The rebound shows the market absorbed the first day of potential supply, not that selling pressure has disappeared.
Aug 6 was only the first staged release. Additional tranches remain under the IPO lockup schedule, while Elon Musk’s shares are subject to a 366-day lockup.
The next test is whether Starlink’s revenue base and rapid AI growth can support higher capex before more shares become available.
Which signal matters more now: AI revenue converting into stronger margins, or continued absorption of the unlocked supply?
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound Let's talk about the reaction of storage stocks after this earnings report wave; I really can't quite understand it.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%. Adjusted EPS was $39.25, 135 times that of the same period last year. Gross margin hit 84.6%. Data center business revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter and surged 1298% year-over-year. They also approved a $14 billion buyback.
Western Digital was similar, with revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year, adjusted EPS of $3.56, up 109% year-over-year. Net profit soared 12 times.
Any single earnings report alone is a dominating performance.
And then? SanDisk fell 7% after hours, Western Digital dropped 11%. The next day pre-market, SanDisk continued down 8%, Western Digital down 15%. The Asia-Pacific market followed suit, with the South Korean composite index dropping over 5%, SK Hynix down nearly 10%, Samsung Electronics down over 6%.
The better the performance, the harder the fall. This script has been replayed repeatedly this year—SK Hynix fell 30% intraday after Q2 earnings, Samsung's profit surged 1810% but its stock price fell 6%.
Where's the problem? It's in the guidance.
SanDisk's next quarter revenue guidance is $10.3 to $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion. What was the market expectation? $10.8 to $11.16 billion. A difference of less than $600 million caused a 9% stock price collapse.
Western Digital is even more unfair; next quarter revenue guidance midpoint is $4.1 billion, actually higher than analysts' expectation of $4.06 billion. Yet it still fell 15% after hours.
Goldman Sachs analysts said it bluntly: "The core contradiction currently facing the storage industry is not a deterioration in fundamentals, but that market expectations have outpaced reality."
It's not that storage is failing, but the market's expectations for storage have reached a point where "you must be perfect, must exceed expectations every time, and must significantly raise guidance." It's not enough to be profitable now; you have to be even more profitable in the future.
SanDisk has risen over 460% this year, Western Digital over 200%. The market has long priced in the benefits of AI storage supply shortages, price increases, and explosive earnings growth. When earnings land and no new outperformance appears, profit-taking naturally becomes the choice.
There's another variable many may have overlooked: Nvidia is evaluating lowering the HBM configuration of Rubin Ultra. Originally planned to use HBM4e 12hi, now also evaluating an 8hi option in parallel. The reason is that the DRAM supply shortage pattern will continue until 2027. This is a double-edged sword for storage manufacturers—continued HBM tightness means the price increase logic remains, but it also means AI chip shipments may be bottlenecked by HBM, which in turn limits the growth space of the entire industry chain. If Nvidia really downgrades, will the demand expectations for high-end HBM be repriced? This is the calculation the market is making now.
So has the storage market peaked? I think we shouldn't rush to conclusions. SanDisk has signed 10 long-term agreements covering 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion. About 50% of shipment bits for fiscal 2027 are already locked in. The CEO said frankly—"We want to enhance overall business predictability and anti-cyclical resilience, breaking free from the industry's past cycle of wild swings."
This is not just rhetoric; it's truly transforming SanDisk from a cyclical stock relying on price to an infrastructure supplier earning through long-term contracts.
Short-term stock price fluctuations are market sentiment venting; the long-term logic hasn't changed. AI storage demand remains, capacity is still insufficient, and long-term contracts are still being signed. It's just that market expectations ran too fast, stock prices rose too sharply, and any "not surprising enough" guidance gets hammered.
The storage fundamentals haven't broken; the problem is market expectations. When expectations and reality realign, that's the real time to watch.
$SNDK $BTC $SKHYNIX #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Storage stocks are once again showing the pattern of "exploding earnings, but crashing stock prices."
$SNDK and Western Digital's Q4 revenue and profits significantly exceeded expectations, but the next quarter's guidance fell short of the market's higher expectations, causing after-hours drops of over 8% and 11% respectively, dragging down SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung collectively.
This is not the first time. Previously, SK Hynix and Samsung also posted record profits but were still hammered. The core reason is simple: expectations were set too high, and as long as the guidance isn't "even stronger," it is treated as negative news.
What about fundamentals? AI memory demand remains, data centers continue to compete for capacity, long-term contracts have locked in some future supply, and Q3 contract prices are still rising (DRAM 13-18%, NAND 10-15%), though the growth rate is narrowing. Real supply improvements won't come until 2027-2028.
Short-term high volatility is inevitable, and valuations are no longer cheap. But structural shortages have not been broken, and the bull market foundation for AI memory still exists, only transitioning from a one-sided surge into a "consolidation period under high expectations."
The market is trading on expectation gaps; ordinary good numbers are no longer enough.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Chips #AI #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ ETH opened a short position at 1916. $ETH $BTC
This trade is still based on a swing within the range, not directly expecting ETH to start a new round of major decline.
Recently, ETH has repeatedly surged to around 1920–1930 but has not truly held above, while BTC has been stuck between 63,000 and 65,000 USD without a valid breakout.
The current market situation is actually quite clear:
BTC doesn’t rise, ETH finds it hard to strengthen on its own; once BTC falls back, ETH usually drops faster.
The news is also somewhat contradictory.
Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, there are renewed voices internally for rate hikes, and the market still expects further tightening in September, so risk assets are temporarily unlikely to fully rally.
On the other hand, recent inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs have resumed, but funds clearly favor BTC more. ETH/BTC remains at a low level, indicating that while there is incremental capital, the market has not truly started an independent ETH trading trend.
Additionally, Strategy has recently continued selling BTC, so there is selling pressure above BTC as well.
Therefore, I opened a short at 1916 based on:
✔ ETH repeatedly failing to break through the upper boundary of the range
✔ ETH still relatively weak compared to BTC
✔ BTC has not broken out, making it difficult for ETH to strengthen independently
✔ Macro and capital factors are mixed, making range swing trading more suitable
Next, 1900 remains the short-term boundary between bullish and bearish.
If BTC breaks below 63,000 and ETH falls below 1890, I will continue to watch 1870–1850.
But if BTC volume increases and holds above 65,000, and ETH recovers above 1930, the logic for this range short trade will fail, and it will be time to exit.
I am not shorting ETH’s long-term logic.
It’s just that before BTC opens up space, ETH hitting the upper range and failing to rise further makes this position worth trying a pullback.#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound The virus hid itself in an on-chain contract, and this time no one can delete it.
Microsoft's Threat Intelligence team published something yesterday, and after reading it, I stared at the screen for a moment.
They tracked a batch of compromised websites; the attack chain itself isn't new. They forged a CAPTCHA page, like the usual "I'm not a robot" verification, then prompted you to press Win+R or open PowerShell and paste a command to execute. Many people actually do it because the page looks like a normal verification got stuck.
What really makes people uncomfortable is the next step. After running this command, where does it fetch the next stage of malicious instructions? Not from a server, not from a domain, but through the BNB Smart Chain's RPC gateway, reading a smart contract.
This technique has a name: EtherHiding, hiding malicious code on-chain.
Think about what this means. In the past, security companies had a mature process to deal with such attacks: find the control server, contact the hosting provider to take it down, block the domain, and the chain breaks. Now that path is blocked. The contract is deployed on-chain, and only the wallet private key holder who deployed it can modify its content. You have no backend to complain to, no customer service to report to, and no institution can delete it with one click.
The buzzwords we've been repeating these years—immutable, censorship-resistant, no one can shut it down—are turning back in this way for the first time. These features were designed to prevent someone from erasing your asset records, but now the same features are preventing security teams from erasing a virus.
The scale is not small. Microsoft says these two inducement methods have become high-frequency initial intrusion techniques, affecting thousands of enterprise and personal devices worldwide every day. Multiple attack groups are using them, deploying things like Lumma Stealer, Xworm, AsyncRAT. The next steps are credential leaks, lateral movement within internal networks, and finally ransomware.
What's more troublesome is that the entire process uses only built-in system tools: conhost, mshta, rundll32, curl, WMI. In the security community, this is called "living off the land." Your computer won't have any suspicious programs added; it's all stuff that should be there, making it hard for antivirus to determine who the bad actor is.
The most direct advice for us is: any webpage, error prompt, email, or advertisement that asks you to paste a command into the run box or PowerShell—no matter how reasonable the excuse—don't do it.
What I want to talk about more is another layer. The industry has been debating for years whether decentralization actually has practical use, and often the answers sound a bit vague. This time it gave a particularly glaring proof: it really is useful, but the people using it this time are not the ones we expected.
So the question arises: if the censorship-resistant attribute itself is neutral, who decides what should be deleted and what shouldn't?BTC — Wavering around 65,000 dollars, a prelude to a storm?
BTC is at $64,300 today, down slightly 0.52% in 24 hours. US July services PMI shows weakening employment but rising inflation, the market starts murmuring about stagflation risk. Implied volatility has dropped to 36%, a multi-year low — the calm is a bit scary, historically such low volatility often signals a major market shift ahead. The good news is ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive days, with August cumulative exceeding 626 million, BlackRock IBIT alone contributing 479 million. But the fear index is only 25, still in "extreme fear".
50% are consolidating between 63k-65.5k; 30% break below 63k heading to 62k; 20% push above 65.5k aiming for 67k. $BTC Two "explosive" earnings reports triggered a sharp stock price drop—the core contradiction lies in this: the valuation logic of the AI storage sector has shifted from "performance realization" to "continuous performance exceeding expectations." Current earnings reports only prove the past, and guidance falling short of expectations became the trigger for the pullback.
📊 Earnings Highlights: Historic Growth
Both companies' revenue and profits far exceeded expectations:
Western Digital (WDC): Q4 revenue $3.75 billion (YoY +44%), adjusted EPS $3.56 (YoY +109%).
· SanDisk (SNDK): Q4 revenue $8.97 billion (YoY +372%), adjusted EPS 0.29. Data center revenue surged 1298% YoY**.
📉 Root Cause of the Plunge: "Expectation Gap" under High Expectations
After soaring about 200% and 469% respectively during the year, the market's threshold for "surprise" is extremely high.
· Guidance "Not Surprising Enough": SanDisk's next quarter revenue guidance midpoint is $10.55 billion, below the expected $10.8 billion; Western Digital's guidance also lags behind strong outlooks from competitor Seagate Technology.
· Gross Margin "Peaking at High Levels": SanDisk's Q4 gross margin was 84.6%, but next quarter guidance is only 83%-85%; Western Digital's 55%-56% is also lower than Seagate's 57%+.
🌍 Chain Reaction: Collective Weakness from US Stocks to Asia-Pacific
Pessimism quickly spread: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunged in Asia-Pacific pre-market trading, Kioxia dropped over 10%; US storage stocks like Micron and Seagate also came under pressure.
⚖️ Market Divergence: Golden Pit or Cycle Peak?
· Bulls (Long-term Optimistic): Citi believes inventory is low and capacity insufficient; China Asset Management sees strong sustained AI demand; Mizuho raised target prices betting on supply-demand imbalance.
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound The group in the crypto world who joke about markets never closing are now staying up late themselves.
Nasdaq has cut its market closure time down to one hour.
This news was hidden in its Q1 earnings report and the 8-K filing submitted to the SEC. The 23-hour trading system has been approved and will officially launch on December 6. From then on, Eastern Time will only have one hour of market closure from 8 PM to 9 PM, reserved for system clearing and data processing, with trading continuing for the other 23 hours straight.
Currently, U.S. stocks do have some overnight trading, pre-market and after-hours sessions, but that's a different world. Liquidity is thin, spreads are wide, and many brokers restrict order types, so if something goes wrong, you basically can't escape. This time, it's about a formal continuous trading session, which is a different nature.
Twenty-four hours a day, closed for one hour. This number is just one step away from being open all year round, and that last step is most likely just a technical issue, not a matter of willingness.
Our industry has been laughed at for many years. People said that without market closure, there’s no cooling-off period; that price spikes at 3 AM are wild growth; that proper markets must have opening and closing bells. Now, the side that rings the bell is the one actively proposing to open the market overnight.
Why the sudden change of mind? It's not hard to guess.
In the past two years, something happened: U.S. stocks are no longer traded only on U.S. stock exchanges. A bunch of perpetual contracts pegged to U.S. stocks have emerged on-chain, running regardless of market closures. On company lockup expiration days, earnings release nights, or during early morning crashes in other markets, Nasdaq is closed, but prices have already moved significantly elsewhere. When the market opens the next day, the matching is just confirming an established fact.
What's more troublesome is that liquidity remembers its path. If someone gets used to opening and closing positions somewhere at midnight, they might not come back during the day. The volume traded overnight won't just return by itself.
So this isn’t Nasdaq trying to be more competitive; it’s realizing that for most of the day, it’s outside the pricing power.
The interesting part is that both sides are moving toward each other. Traditional exchanges are extending trading hours and experimenting with tokenized clearing, while on-chain platforms are applying for licenses, building compliance channels, and moving matching into regulated entities. Previously, these were two logics that looked down on each other; now, each is picking up what the other has.
Of course, trading 23 hours also has costs. Overnight markets are thin, spreads widen, and placing orders late at night doesn’t necessarily mean a bargain. We understand this better than anyone; the market dynamics at midnight have been experienced countless times in crypto. The difference is that what was once a drawback is now experience.
The most direct change for us might be the rhythm. Many people’s schedules used to be segmented by U.S. market opening times, with 9:30 PM being a clear signal. If that market almost never closes, that signal will be flattened; there might be something happening all day, or nothing at all.
The one hour of closure left is quite symbolic. The system still needs a breather; accounts need to be reconciled, data needs to be settled. A market that never stops running has yet to be truly realized by anyone.
Do you think the number of people watching the market late at night will increase or decrease when U.S. stocks trade 23 hours a day? Key conclusion: Employment weakness is fake, hawkish stance unchanged! September interest rate expectations still capped
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
The biggest recent macro pitfall: Don't be fooled by the weak ADP data!
The latest initial jobless claims are 199,000, below expectations, directly confirming: US employment is not weakening at all, just a slowdown in hiring, with no risk of large-scale layoffs.
This is also the core confidence behind the Fed's continued hawkish stance.
The current market game logic is very simple: short-term slight cooling in employment does not support rate cut expectations; but inflation pressure remains, employment resilience persists, so September tightening expectations remain high.
Previously, weak employment meant easing expectations, but now it's completely changed: weak employment cannot suppress high inflation, nor the Fed's hawkish stance.
The most direct impact on the crypto space: macro expectations are repeatedly tugged back and forth, no unilateral big market moves, only oscillations and shakeouts.
Current trading approach: no bets on one-sided moves, no heavy positions, wait quietly for CPI and non-farm payrolls to set the direction. Before macro fundamentals land, all rebounds are just emotional arbitrage. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
$WDC $SNDK $SKHY
Recently, the storage sector has been behaving unusually; despite good earnings reports, stock prices have fallen.
Western Digital and SanDisk's performance actually benefits from the growth in AI demand, but the market hasn't bought into it, and their stock prices are under pressure. The reason isn't poor performance but overly high market expectations.
Over the past year, one of the biggest beneficiaries in the AI industry chain has been storage.
GPUs handle computing power, but behind them are HBM, high-end DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs. As large models grow bigger, AI data centers' demand for memory continues to increase, which is the core reason for the explosive performance of companies like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron.
But now the market is starting to look at the issue from a different angle.
Can the growth continue to exceed expectations in the future?
Previously, chip stocks fell because of poor performance.
Now, they fall because, although performance is good, it’s not good enough to surprise the market.
This indicates that AI storage has entered a new phase, and the market will focus on three key questions going forward:
First, can the AI capital expenditures of giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon maintain high growth?
Second, how long can the price increase cycle for HBM and high-end storage last?
Third, is the storage demand driven by AI a short-term boom or a long-term industrial upgrade?
I believe this adjustment is more like valuation digestion, not the end of the AI logic. But in the future, storage stocks will no longer all rise together; there will be clear differentiation.
Companies that truly benefit from AI infrastructure upgrades, have technological barriers, and long-term orders still have opportunities.
The AI storage story is still ongoing, but the market has shifted from speculating on expectations to focusing on realization. The competition ahead is not about who tells the best AI story, but who can truly turn AI demand into profit.
Not investment advice. DYOR Reuters: Asian stock markets await U.S. employment data, Middle East risks push oil prices to continue rising..
The market is playing the "nonfarm guessing game" again: ADP only 44,000, unemployment rate quietly rising, wage growth slowing, fierce debate over whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September..
In the Middle East: Iran and Oman agree on new Hormuz rules, U.S. and Israel ban ships, yet oil prices rise mildly..
The truth is only one: liquidity pricing power lies in U.S. Treasury real yields, geopolitics is just an excuse for the bulls..
Better to "watch real yields and do the math than stare at the screen guessing probabilities."$LA intraday short-term altcoin 💥
Caibao observed a clear upward signal on the LA hourly chart, with volume starting to increase and the market beginning to rally. Short-term capital sentiment is gradually warming up.
Currently, Caibao has positioned long orders, targeting around 0.054. From the trend perspective, the daily chart is just beginning to show signs of volume expansion, and after the previous adjustment, there is a possibility of a second round of upward movement.
In the short term, the upward momentum is strengthening, with continuous capital inflow. Altcoin volatility remains high, so position control and proper take-profit and stop-loss measures are still necessary.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ After finishing blow-drying my hair and sitting down, the air conditioner’s breeze just swept across the back of my neck. I reached out to light up the screen; the notification bar was empty—no alerts, no pushes, and no tokens showing abnormal spikes in a short time.
In recent days, prices seem frozen, with daily volatility compressed to the lowest level recently. But this surface calm often means something—only no one knows when the fuse will finally burn out, nor which direction it will point.
Today I repeatedly reviewed on-chain data and just scanned again for new movements since midnight. Without building complex models, just by observing the frequency of transfers between addresses, the intervals, and the behavior patterns of recipients, you can sense that some corners are methodically positioning, while liquidity is slowly being withdrawn in other directions.
Let me first mention a few signals worth recording.
$BTC’s intraday high-low range has tightened to within eight hundred dollars today. In the options market, the gap between implied volatility and realized volatility is widening, indicating option sellers are charging higher premiums than usual—they are willing to take directional risk, but the price isn’t cheap. This afternoon, a large transfer exceeding two thousand coins appeared on-chain; the receiving address belongs to a compliant custody institution, aggregated from several different addresses. This operation rhythm doesn’t look spontaneous but more like a planned portfolio adjustment.
$ETH’s mainnet gas fees briefly dropped below 2.5 Gwei in the evening, making on-chain transfer costs among the lowest in nearly half a year. However, the spot ETF buying channel has been open for eleven consecutive days as of today, with cumulative net inflows not huge but continuous. This fixed daily position buying is less about betting on direction and more about allocation.
The domain name sector also shows an abnormal signal—$ENS registrations today are nearly 20% higher than the average of the previous four days, with a disproportionately high share of new registrations and a slight drop in renewal rates. This suggests strong short-term speculative registrations.
The meme coin sector shows clear internal fractures today. $PEPE still maintains basic turnover and quote width, but most of the back rows have entered a typical “frozen” state—buy and sell orders are spaced far apart, and a single order of several thousand dollars can move the price by several points. $WIF’s turnover rate has dropped to a near three-week low, briefly spiking intraday before being quickly suppressed. $BONK and $FLOKI have both fallen around two points; the entire sector is slowly shrinking, with liquidity concentrating toward the leaders.
Now, let’s look at the directions quietly withdrawing.
$ARB and $OP’s on-chain transaction counts have dropped to recent lows, with market makers’ order book depth on these native tokens noticeably thinner than last week, and spreads slowly widening. $STRK’s daily active addresses have nearly fallen to the lowest range since launch, and interaction frequency on several main on-chain applications is also declining. The turnover rate in the entire Layer 2 sector has more than halved from its peak a month ago.
Several major applications in the $NEAR ecosystem show declining daily activity, and cross-chain bridge transaction volume is also falling. $ICP’s cycles consumption has dropped to recent lows. $FLOW’s on-chain NFT daily trading volume has shrunk to an almost negligible level.
Except for the top three to five meme coins, the rest are seeing simultaneous contraction in quote width and trading depth. Some projects’ total daily volume today is less than $PEPE’s volume in one minute. Market interest in these assets is visibly fading.
In the staking sector, $EIGEN’s total locked volume actually increased by a few percentage points today, with a giant whale address depositing tens of thousands of ETH at once. $PENDLE’s yield trading volume expanded multiple times today, mainly concentrated in several pools expiring next year.
$ATOM’s staking rate slightly declined, but some validator nodes increased their self-stake today. $INJ’s derivatives market opening interest is weakening, with daily trading volume dropping to a recent low. $RUNE’s swap volume slightly rebounded today, with no obvious changes in liquidity pools. Community discussion heat for $CRV and $CAKE has dropped sharply; occasional posts mostly carry tones like “Is this project abandoned?” This quietness itself is a signal—when the last believers’ confidence starts to waver, prices have often already fallen to quite extreme levels. But extreme doesn’t mean an immediate reversal; the bottom is never a single point but a range.
Some projects today are stuck in a gray zone—not significantly deteriorated fundamentally, but the current liquidity environment is continuously tightening. In this state, any minor negative news could trigger the next round of declines. Not entering when things are unclear is itself an effective risk control.
Wallet balances of $BTC and $ETH on several major exchanges continue net outflows, with cumulative reductions reaching the longest sustained period in nearly a month. Whale addresses generally show no abnormal movements; overall chip stability is stronger than it appears on the surface.
A rough overview of today’s capital flows: net buying is relatively concentrated in $ENA, $PEPE, $ONDO, $LINK, $UNI, $AAVE, $MKR, $ENS, $LDO, $RNDR, $PENDLE, and $RUNE. Net selling is heavier in $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $SUI, $SEI, $APT, $TIA, $NEAR, $WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $ATOM, $INJ, $CRV, and $CAKE. However, such short-term inflow and outflow data can completely reverse tomorrow, so their reference value is limited—don’t treat these as definitive guidance.
The longer you stay in this market, the clearer one thing becomes—the ability to judge direction is far less important than position management. You can be right many times in a row, but if you mishandle stop losses once or twice, all the profits you accumulated can be wiped out in days. Most losses don’t stem from the market being too cunning but from one’s own wishful thinking—always believing this time will be different, but every time it’s the same, and you wake up tomorrow to see it again.$BTC is still defending $64K to $64,200, and the next direction comes down to three things happening at once: the Fed, ETF money, and August.
Macro is tilting in our favor. Jobs data came in softer, ADP missed, and now the market is betting the Fed goes softer too. Yields are dropping, the dollar is weakening, and that’s exactly the setup risk assets love. With geopolitics calmer and oil steady, appetite for risk is creeping back into both equities and crypto.
On the institution side, spot Bitcoin ETFs are stabilizing. We’re back to net positive inflow days. Corporates aren’t selling either. Treasuries keep building $BTC reserves, which puts a real bid under the market even if retail is sitting on their hands.
Now the August problem. Historically it’s a quiet month with about a 4.3% average pullback. To fight that, $BTC has to reclaim and hold $64,800 to $65,500. Lose $63,800 and we likely retest liquidity down near $62,200.
So here’s the call for this month. Will fresh ETF inflows and dovish macro push us through $65K, or does old August seasonality win and keep us range bound.
What’s your bias on $BTC this month. #DailyOrbit
#SpaceXUnlockRebound #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #AIMemoryBullTest $BICO $SPCX ETFs are still flowing in, but the pace has clearly slowed; fear sentiment is easing, altcoin market remains weak.
ETFs have continuous inflows, so why is BTC still stuck at $64,000?
Yesterday, I defined the market as a “BTC-dominated weak recovery.”
Today's data does not overturn this judgment but adds a detail worth noting: funds have not clearly withdrawn, but the inflow speed has started to decline.
As of the morning of August 7:
BTC is about $64,334, down about 0.3% in 24 hours;
ETH is about $1,910, down about 0.6%;
SOL is about $72.61, down about 2.1%.
In the past four trading days, BTC ETFs have had continuous net inflows totaling about $635 million.
But breaking it down:
On August 5, net inflow was about $244 million;
On August 6, it dropped to only about $9.3 million.
ETH ETFs show a similar change, with single-day net inflows dropping from about $60.8 million to about $9 million.
This indicates that funds have not collectively exited, but the strength of new buying is weakening. Current ETF inflows seem more like absorbing market selling pressure and are insufficient to drive rapid price expansion.
In terms of sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 25 yesterday to 33. Panic has eased but remains in the “fear” zone.
Market structure has not changed significantly:
BTC market dominance is about 58.8%;
Altseason index is only 34/100;
BTC contract funding rate is about 0.005%, with moderate leverage sentiment.
Putting these data together, my latest market characterization is:
"Recovery is ongoing but has entered a phase of testing the sustainability of funds."
Next, I will focus on three things:
Whether BTC ETF inflows can expand again rather than just barely stay positive;
Whether ETH and SOL can regain relative strength;
Whether BTC market dominance can decline and the altseason index can continue to rise.
If only BTC consolidates sideways while fund inflows, ETH strength, and altcoin activity continue to decline, the quality of this recovery needs to be reassessed.
Funds are still present, but enthusiasm is waning.
This is neither a pessimistic conclusion nor a bullish signal, just the market state given by today's data.
I am Aheng, the crypto market on-duty analyst.
First look at funds, then listen to the story; first write invalidation conditions, then write opinions.
This post is for market research and information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoMarket #MarketReview #AhengOnDuty $BTC is still defending $64K to $64,200, and the next direction comes down to three things happening at once: the Fed, ETF money, and August.
Macro is tilting in our favor. Jobs data came in softer, ADP missed, and now the market is betting the Fed goes softer too. Yields are dropping, the dollar is weakening, and that’s exactly the setup risk assets love. With geopolitics calmer and oil steady, appetite for risk is creeping back into both equities and crypto.
On the institution side, spot Bitcoin ETFs are stabilizing. We’re back to net positive inflow days. Corporates aren’t selling either. Treasuries keep building $BTC reserves, which puts a real bid under the market even if retail is sitting on their hands.
Now the August problem. Historically it’s a quiet month with about a 4.3% average pullback. To fight that, $BTC has to reclaim and hold $64,800 to $65,500. Lose $63,800 and we likely retest liquidity down near $62,200.
So here’s the call for this month. Will fresh ETF inflows and dovish macro push us through $65K, or does old August seasonality win and keep us range bound.
What’s your bias on $BTC this month. #DailyOrbit
#SpaceXUnlockRebound #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #AIMemoryBullTest $BICO $SPCX #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
Western Digital and SanDisk's recent earnings reports were overall better than expected, but their stock prices fell in after-hours trading, and the South Korean memory sector also faced pressure.
This indicates one thing:
The market is no longer trading on "whether there is demand for AI storage," but rather "whether future growth can continue to exceed expectations."
Over the past year, AI storage has been one of the strongest directions in the entire AI industry chain.
The reason is simple: AI model training and inference require a large amount of high-performance memory, especially HBM. $XNVDA NVIDIA's GPU performance continues to improve, but without sufficient high-bandwidth storage, computing power cannot be fully unleashed.
Therefore, HBM supply remains tight, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all expanding related capacity.
But "supply not meeting demand" does not necessarily always mean a positive.
In the short term, tight supply means storage manufacturers have stronger pricing power; but in the long term, if supply constraints affect GPU shipments or AI companies start seeking alternatives, it could become a bottleneck for the entire AI industry chain.
This is also why the market is shifting from a "storage bull market" to observing:
Whether AI demand growth can truly continue to translate into corporate profits.
I believe this round of storage stock adjustments is more like a correction of expectations rather than the end of the industry logic. But the investment logic needs to be upgraded.
Previously, the focus was on "who owns storage capacity," now it should be more on:
1. Who controls high-end HBM technology;
2. Who can bind top AI clients;
3. Who has irreplaceability in AI infrastructure.
From a longer-term perspective, the biggest opportunity in the AI era may not just be selling chips, but the entire infrastructure chain.
Computing power, storage, networks, and energy will all continue to benefit as AI develops. So I won’t simply interpret this adjustment as "AI storage peaking."
The market is just starting to raise its standards:
Good sectors need good companies, and even more, reasonable prices. What will truly determine the storage market in the future is not short-term stock price fluctuations, but how long AI capital expenditures can continue and whether HBM demand can keep being realized. Damn, brothers, is history about to repeat itself?
I just saw a set of data that instantly gave me goosebumps—ISM Manufacturing at 55.6, Russell 2000 breaking historical highs. These two signals appearing simultaneously, in the past two super bull markets, once in 2016 and once in 2020, both led to explosive BTC rallies.
This is not a coincidence; it’s the underlying logic of macro liquidity transmission.
What does ISM Manufacturing > 55 mean? It means the US real economy is expanding, and companies are willing to spend. What does the Russell 2000 breaking new highs mean? It means those most sensitive and representative small-cap stocks of the US domestic economy are soaring. Money earned from the real economy starts flowing into risk assets, and Bitcoin is one of the biggest reservoirs.
Last year, ISM stayed below 50 all year; you think there could be a bull market? No way. Now both conditions are met, this is the first time since 2020 that this signal combination has appeared.
But I have to pour some cold water—
In 2020, after ISM and Russell 2000 broke through, BTC did take off, but it also went through three 20% corrections. Moreover, the macro environment now is much more complex than back then; the Fed is still watching, inflation stickiness remains, and no one can say for sure if the AI bubble will burst.
But I haven’t moved my position, I even want to add some.
Not because of blind optimism, but because data doesn’t lie. When these two signals appear simultaneously, the odds are indeed on the bulls’ side. Of course, history doesn’t simply repeat itself, but the rhythm is often surprisingly similar. If there really is a big market in the coming months, this position might be the starting line.
The darkness before dawn is the coldest, but the sky will definitely brighten. Brothers, hold tight. Recently, Real Vision founder Raoul Pal stated on X that in the future, much of economic activity will be handled by AI agents, and cryptocurrencies will become the only settlement track between machines. This judgment is not without basis, but the "unique" issue is still debatable.
AI agents will indeed bring new scenarios that traditional payments are not good at.
They require purchasing data, computing power, and modeling services on a per-use basis, with amounts possibly under one cent, and require payment, delivery, and refunds to be automatically completed by code.
Having machines handle bank account opening, manual verification, and cross-border remittance processes is naturally inefficient.
Stablecoins and blockchains require no business hours, wallets can sign directly, and smart contracts enforce transaction rules—features that naturally align with the Agent economy.
The x402 that Coinbase has been vigorously promoting is a great example.
It reactivates the long-idle "402 Payment Required" status code on the internet, allowing AI to directly quote, sign, and settle requests when accessing a payment API, without registering as a member or binding a credit card.
x402 allows the API to call quotes on a single call and directly embed payment vouchers into network requests, allowing machines to complete transactions automatically without registering an account.
However, just because machines cannot have bank accounts does not mean they cannot use the banking system.
AI can fully serve as an authorized execution tool for businesses or individuals, recalling existing accounts within limits, purposes, and timeframes.
Googl