Orbit Post Sitemap
Just now, I took profit on my $GIGGLE short position. Because I looked at its previous trend, its decline seems to have been quite full of twists and turns, so I don't think it will keep falling straight down. It's clear that during the previous ups and downs, it was similar to now—first straight down, then oscillating upward. Personally, I think $GIGGLE could rebound again this time just like before. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. It can be seen that in today's decline, its contract long-short ratio has been continuously decreasing, while open interest is steadily increasing. Based on the data on the chart, there are actually a lot of people shorting right now. But if we look at that passage separately, we find something different. We can see that its contract open interest has two rapid rising phases, and the long-short ratio of the contract is rising in both stages. In other words, the contract interest in this rising contract is mainly due to the bulls increasing their positions. So why does the final result result is a decline in the long-short ratio? Personally, I think it might be because some bulls saw the unrealized gains narrowing or losses widening, and then exited. —————————————————— To be honest, I don't really want to buy this coin at the bottom, because I feel its upside potential is quite limited. Even if CZ really buys this coin, I wouldn't be very optimistic about it. I am the one$BTC
According to CoinDesk, in the past 24 hours, except for ETH showing relatively weak performance, mainstream cryptocurrencies generally rose, with BTC increasing about 1.9%, once again approaching the $64,000 mark. Notably, even though assets stolen from the Coldcard wallet have been transferred for the fourth time, the market has not shown obvious panic; instead, it continues to maintain a rebound rhythm.
This indicates that the focus of funds has shifted.
When the Coldcard incident was first exposed, investors worried that a large amount of stolen BTC would flow into exchanges, triggering a new round of sell-offs. But as time passed, the market found that the impact was more concentrated on individual wallet security rather than the Bitcoin network itself, and there was no sustained concentrated selling pressure. Therefore, traders began to refocus their attention on the macro environment, ETF fund flows, and global risk appetite.
Meanwhile, Asian stock markets have pulled back due to a cooldown in AI trading, but BTC did not weaken accordingly, which also sends a positive signal—Bitcoin is beginning to show a certain degree of independence in the short term. In the past, tech stock pullbacks often dragged down the crypto market; this time, BTC remains strong, indicating that market buying interest still exists.
Of course, whether BTC can truly hold above $64,000 still depends on several key factors: whether spot ETFs continue to maintain net inflows, whether U.S. tech stocks can stabilize, and whether the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline. If these conditions are met simultaneously, BTC is expected to further challenge higher resistance levels; if funds shift back to safe-haven assets, short-term fluctuations may still occur.
For traders, the biggest change in the current market is not the price increase but that the capital logic is shifting from "panic trading" to "fundamental trading." When security incidents no longer dominate the market, it means investors are starting to refocus on liquidity, institutional funds, and the macro environment—these factors are the core variables that truly determine BTC's medium- to long-term trend.
What do you think? After BTC breaks through $64,000, will it start a new round of rally or face resistance and fall again? Feel free to share your views in the comments.From "Consensus on Rate Cuts" to "Open Disputes on Rate Hikes," the Fed's divisions run deeper than they appear.
This is not just an ordinary "hawkish rise," but the result of a triple overlay of policy framework, personnel, and real data.
1. Timeline: How expectations were gradually overturned
End of 2025 to early 2026: Strong expectations for inflation to fall back, with the market generally pricing continued easing. The dot plot still showed room for rate cuts.
June meeting: The first full meeting after new Chair Kevin Warsh took office. The statement removed dovish language, and the dot plot suddenly shifted—about half of the members believed at least one rate hike would be needed before the end of 2026. The median rate forecast moved higher. The market was still hesitant at that time.
July meeting: The vote changed from unanimous to 9-3. Three regional Fed presidents publicly called for an immediate 25bp hike. This was the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction.
The key turning point was not any single data point but the Fed’s own acknowledgment of the gap between its forecasts and reality. Inflation has been above the 2% target for five consecutive years; supply shocks (Middle East energy) are just the latest layer, beneath which lies more persistent price pressure.
2. The logic of the three dissenters is tougher than just the label "hawkish"
Beth Hammack (Cleveland): Clearly stated that current policy is "not restrictive enough." The longer inflation stays high, the greater the cost and difficulty of bringing it down. She wants action now to accelerate the return to 2%.
Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis): Emphasized "preventive small steps." He prefers to tighten gradually and early rather than be forced into large hikes after inflation becomes entrenched. He worries about lag effects—waiting for confirmation often means it’s already too late.
Lorie Logan (Dallas): Directly pointed out that labor market, consumption, and financial conditions all show policy is not truly restraining the economy. The Fed cannot rely on unexpected shocks to do its job.
Their common point is clear:
They do not believe the economy is overheated enough to require an immediate brake, but they think the current rate level is insufficient to suppress inflation, and the risk of waiting is higher than the risk of acting early with small steps.
This is closer to a "risk management" mindset than a simple "hawkish" stance.
3. Warsh’s style changed the game
During the Powell era, the Fed was accustomed to managing expectations with forward guidance and minimizing public disagreements.
After Warsh took office, he cut much of the forward guidance language, emphasized "data-driven, no preset path," and allowed internal real disputes to be public. He said at a press conference: "I wanted a good family argument, and I got one."
This brought two direct consequences:
The market can no longer price based on "the Fed will cut first and then see," and must judge data thresholds on its own.
The weight of dissenting votes is amplified. Previously, dissent was more personal stance; now it directly raises the evidence bar needed to "hold steady."
Warsh himself is not keen on the dot plot but did not prevent it and the voting results from exposing divisions. The result is increased uncertainty about the policy path, but the directional "bias toward cuts" is systematically weakened.
The truly critical upcoming windows:
August Jackson Hole Symposium—Warsh may provide a clearer framework.
Continuous inflation and employment data before the September meeting.
Whether Middle East tensions and oil prices continue to impact core inflation.
Whether the three dissenters continue to publicly apply pressure.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes, Fed Divisions Fully Exposed
I am Brother Ci. The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have been completely laid bare. The rate hike camp and the rate cut camp have both revealed their cards simultaneously, with completely opposite directions. Such a scene is extremely rare in recent years. The rate hike camp, represented by Logan, Harker, and Kashkari, believes that inflation has been above 2% for over five years, current policies are not restrictive enough, and interest rates should be slightly higher. The rate cut camp currently has only Waller publicly advocating, warning that the labor market may deteriorate rapidly and supporting a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. Chair Wash has not expressed a directional stance, stating that the 2% target remains unchanged, decisive action will be taken if necessary, rejecting forward guidance, and that the September path will be determined by the two CPI reports before the meeting. Market pricing still clearly favors rate hikes, with no pricing for rate cut proposals. In other words, the market is completely on Logan's side, ignoring Waller's warnings. The Fed's internal directional divisions, combined with the market's one-sided bet on rate hikes, mean that any CPI data below expectations could trigger a sharp directional correction. Under the rate hike logic, BTC faces short-term pressure, but the narrative of fiat currency credit erosion strengthens; under the rate cut logic, BTC directly benefits from liquidity release. For short positions on SanDisk, the high interest rate environment suppresses tech stock valuations, with the storage sector as a high Beta category taking the brunt. As long as rate hike expectations do not cool down, the valuation ceiling for tech stocks cannot rise, and the rebound space for storage stocks is limited. Continue holding the 1324.87 short position, move the stop loss up to 1320, with a target of 1200 to 1220. Around 1288 is a short-term resistance level; the macro background for the short position has not changed, waiting for the. Russia has recently clashed with Apple $XAAPL. The Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service has officially launched an investigation into Apple, with a maximum fine of 4 billion rubles (about 50 million USD). But this amount is negligible for Apple; what Russia really wants is for Apple to pre-install Russian domestic apps and stores on the iPhone.
What's even more interesting is that Apple not only refused to comply but in June removed a large number of national-level Russian apps (such as the VK series) directly from the App Store. Moreover, Apple had already stopped selling in Russia, so effectively Russia is issuing fines to a company that doesn't even have physical stores there.
While these two parties are at a stalemate, another incident occurred last night: Telegram, with 900 million users, suddenly disappeared briefly from the global App Store. Although Apple reinstated it a few hours later citing "cleaning up violating content," the timing was quite suspicious.
These two events together reveal a harsh reality: by 2026, the greatest power on the internet will not lie in servers but in "distribution channels." No matter how big your software is, if Apple or Google locks the gate, your downloads and updates instantly drop to zero. Russia's push for a domestic store and China's previous removal of apps like Telegram follow the same logic—it's a battle over digital sovereignty, right on the screens we swipe every day.
This is an even louder alarm for the crypto community. We constantly advocate decentralization, but wallets, exchanges, and community announcements are all highly centralized in the hands of Apple and Google $XGOOGL. Once the gate closes, decentralization becomes impossible to achieve.
What do you think? Will countries continue to push their own app stores in the future, or will Apple eventually compromise and back down? Tomorrow Circle will release its Q2 earnings report. You can remember a simple formula first:
USDC circulation × reserve asset yield ≈ reserve income.
Assuming an annualized reserve yield of 4%, every additional $10 billion USDC theoretically increases annualized reserve income by about $400 million. Of course, this does not yet deduct channel shares, operating costs, and other expenses.
The same high-interest-rate environment puts valuation pressure on $BTC and $ETH but may become a source of income for Circle. Therefore, Circle's performance growth cannot be directly equated with an overall improvement in crypto liquidity.
This earnings report needs to be analyzed by breaking down three variables:
Whether USDC circulation continues to grow;
How much reserve income has increased;
How much profit remains after deducting distribution and incentive costs.
If the revenue beat mainly comes from reserve yield, but USDC scale has not significantly expanded, it reflects interest rate dividends. If USDC circulation, payment usage, and non-interest income grow simultaneously, it indicates that on-chain dollar demand is expanding.
Circle's report is not just a public company earnings report but also a health check of stablecoin capital activity.
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 When the tide goes out, who is swimming naked, and who is wearing a swimsuit made of "income"? Data doesn't lie—let's set aside predictions and focus solely on the intersection of K-lines and on-chain activity.
📉 $AVAX — Started the year at $12.30, once surged to $13.65. However, the explosive ecological growth brought by the Avalanche9000 upgrade—75 active L1s, 2.48 million daily transactions—failed to hold the price. Currently, AVAX has dropped to around $6.2-$6.7, nearly 50% down from the start of the year. The divergence between technical upgrades and price trends is one of the most alarming signals this year.
📉 $POL — After bottoming out between $0.10-$0.15 at the start of the year, it briefly rebounded to $0.17-$0.18, but the rally was short-lived. It hit a historic low of $0.07 mid-year and now hovers around $0.071-$0.073. Despite Polygon's co-founder proclaiming 2026 as POL's "year of rebirth" and accelerated on-chain burns, the price has fallen over 50% from its early-year peak—the decoupling of ecosystem enthusiasm and token value is harsher than expected.
📉 $ATOM — Around $2.41-$2.48 at the start of the year, briefly touched $2.65 in mid-January. However, the cross-chain narrative has completely fallen out of favor during the bear market. ATOM has now dropped to about $1.36, down over 40% year-to-date. Internal governance disputes within Cosmos Hub and sovereign chains acting independently—the cost of a blurred narrative is far deadlier than technical delays.
📉 $LTC — About $82.75 at the start of the year, dipped to $71.87 in mid-January. The old halving story has completely failed; LTC now trades around $44-$47, down over 40% year-to-date. On-chain activity remains sluggish; the "digital silver" story, without new capital inflows, is sustained only by sentiment.
📈 $UNI — About $5.5 at the start of the year, steadily dropped to around $2.3 in the first half. Until July, when Robinhood Chain launched and activated the fee switch buyback mechanism, protocol revenue surged 270% in a single day, pushing the price up to $4.6. It has since retreated to around $3.90, down about 29% year-to-date. The real trading volume brought by Robinhood Chain has transformed UNI from a governance token into a cash flow asset, but whether Meme-driven traffic can sustain remains the biggest uncertainty.
📈 $LDO — A representative of the staking sector, but the price is equally brutal. Currently trading around $0.33, with a huge year-to-date decline. Although Lido's ETH staking volume continues to expand, with a total locked value of $17.573 billion, there is a shocking divergence between token price and locked value—you holding tokens does not necessarily represent the assets you have staked.
The rhyme of history never changes: during the frenzy, all tokens wear the cloak of "revolution"; but during liquidation, only those assets that can calculate cash flow or have locked-in essential demand can provide investors with the last escape pod. 🚨 The biggest story this week isn't earnings... it's what's happening inside the Fed.
For the first time in a while, the Fed's internal divisions are no longer staying behind closed doors.
Three dissents at July's meeting were already unusual. Now, some of the more hawkish voices are openly pushing their views in public. Markets have largely ignored it so far—but that reaction is a signal in itself.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is telling a different story.
Despite Strategy selling another 1,638 BTC, price continues to hold above $63K. Compare that with the larger 3,500+ BTC sale in late July, and one thing stands out: the selling pressure is getting absorbed without breaking market structure.
That's not what weak demand looks like.
The next real test comes from this week's catalysts. AMD earnings, SpaceX developments, and the tone from hawkish Fed officials will show whether buyers are still willing to step in—or if liquidity finally starts to fade.
The market is staying calm.
Let's see if it stays that way.
DYOR.
#BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
#DailyOrbit #Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours rise 13%
AI demand fully explodes? Palantir revenue surges 93%, after-hours jumps 13%
Palantir delivered a financial report far exceeding market expectations. Q2 revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, not only setting a new record but also significantly surpassing market forecasts. After the earnings release, the stock price rose about 13% in after-hours trading.
What truly amazed the market was not just the revenue growth, but the 149% surge in U.S. commercial business revenue and 90% growth in government business. Meanwhile, the company signed $3.37 billion in new contracts in a single quarter, free cash flow exceeded $1.2 billion for the first time, and it raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion.
Many previously thought Palantir relied too heavily on government orders, but now more and more enterprises are starting to pay for AI applications, prompting the market to reassess its growth potential.
This indicates that real demand for AI applications is materializing, not just hype. The 149% growth in U.S. commercial revenue shows enterprises are buying AI products in bulk. The significant upward revision in guidance means demand visibility is extending. Palantir set the tone for earnings season with a 13% rise; the quarterly numbers are just the entry ticket, the guidance sets the price.
Impact on BTC
Palantir’s beat directly boosts AI-related sentiment. If AMD delivers a strong report tonight and tech stocks continue to rebound, BTC as a high-beta asset will benefit in tandem. If AMD misses expectations, short-term sentiment may retreat, but the fundamental AI demand remains intact. The optical communication and storage sectors have recently rebounded first; after Palantir validated AI application demand, certainty on the compute hardware side will only strengthen.
Palantir validated AI application demand, AMD will validate AI chip demand tonight, SpaceX validates Starlink’s profitability, Circle validates the stablecoin business model. Palantir’s 13% rise has already set an example for the market; if the others can replicate it, the entire tech sector’s sentiment will be fully restored. 🏰 MicroStrategy sold coins again! But this time, what I see is an old sailor adjusting the sails, not abandoning ship and fleeing
Folks, MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin again.
According to the latest disclosure, Strategy sold 1,638 $BTC between July 27 and August 2, cashing out about $104.7 million, with an average transaction price of $63,957 — lower than the previous holding cost of $75,419. The total holdings have now dropped to 842,138 coins.
Seeing this, do you feel: even the biggest bulls are starting to run? Faith is collapsing?
Don’t rush, let me tell you a more realistic story.
---#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩
⛵ This is not abandoning ship, it’s adjusting the sails in a storm
In past bull markets, Strategy was like a BTC castle continuously built higher. Through financing and issuing shares, it kept buying Bitcoin, making itself the largest publicly listed $BTC holding institution in the market.
But the higher the castle, the greater the maintenance cost.
The 12% fixed dividend on preferred shares is the daily guard fee the castle must pay. Rain or shine, this money must be paid on time. So this coin sale is more like taking some reserve grain from the warehouse to pay the guards’ wages, keeping the castle running normally — not dismantling the entire castle.
---#特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC
📊 Three details show this is not a strategic retreat
First, the amount sold is less. This time 1,638 coins, which is half the scale compared to 3,588 coins sold in early July.
Second, it stopped after selling. After this batch, it paused for four weeks. If it were truly bearish, it would be a continuous reduction, not a small-scale capital structure adjustment.
Third, it gave a buyback condition. Strategy clearly stated: it will only buy coins again when the preferred share price returns near the issue price. This is the key to understanding its business model — it’s not simply hoarding coins, but using the capital market to amplify BTC exposure.
---
⚙️ The real question: can this machine still run at high speed?
Strategy’s business model is essentially a BTC amplifier powered by external funds. As long as the market is willing to give it a higher valuation, it can keep financing and buying coins.
When the preferred share price falls below expectations, the gears encounter resistance. So the question is never "Does MicroStrategy still believe in $BTC" — of course it does. The question is whether this machine can continue to run at high speed.
---#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩
📌 My judgment
In the short term, this will bring some pressure to the market. When a long-term buyer starts selling, it definitely affects sentiment.
But in the long term, 1,638 BTC is nothing compared to the total holding of 840,000 coins. This looks more like a capital adjustment, not a strategic shift. What really needs caution is another scenario: if BTC enters a long period of consolidation, MicroStrategy’s financing costs keep rising, and the market doesn’t give it new premiums — then its former "infinite coin buying mode" might face a real bottleneck.🚨 The latest BTC sale doesn't look like an isolated event anymore—it’s starting to look like a pattern.
Strategy has sold another 1,638 BTC, roughly half the size of its previous sale, reducing its holdings to around 842,138 BTC. At the same time, the company continues issuing new shares to help fund preferred dividends and share buybacks.
This marks the second Bitcoin sale in just a few weeks from a company once known for its "never sell" philosophy.
The bigger story isn't about losing conviction in Bitcoin.
It's about cash flow.
A highly leveraged company with dividend commitments and debt obligations is using its most liquid asset to meet financial needs when market conditions aren't providing enough support.
Selling BTC while issuing more shares may work well during a strong bull market, but it becomes more challenging when prices move sideways.
This isn't necessarily a bearish signal for Bitcoin.
It's a reminder that owning BTC and owning a Bitcoin treasury company are two very different investments with different risk profiles.
The key question now is whether these sales become less frequent—or continue as part of an ongoing funding strategy.
This is my market view, not financial advice.
#StrategySellsMore #OKXOrbitTopics
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch Is OKB demand starting to materialize? X Layer's weekly fees increased by 66%, but chain-level Gas fees are still under a thousand dollars
X Layer's recent on-chain data shows a clear rebound.
According to DefiLlama data, the total fees in the X Layer ecosystem over 24 hours are about $4,474, with a 30-day cumulative total of approximately $106,400, representing a 65.8% week-over-week increase. Among these, Gas fees generated by X Layer itself are about $883 per day, higher than before but still relatively small in absolute terms.
What truly deserves attention is not just the fee growth, but that OKB is shifting from being an "exchange platform token" to a system resource for X Layer.
OKX previously fixed the total supply of OKB at 21 million tokens and clearly stated that OKB is the only native Gas token of X Layer. The latest Exchange OS plan also requires market deployers to stake OKB in order to create trading venues or list trading pairs.
In the past, the market mainly valued OKB based on OKX exchange's brand and scale, but now OKX is trying to add a new value path: developers need OKB to deploy markets, users consume OKB by using X Layer, and trading, payments, and RWA applications collectively form on-chain demand.
However, Exchange OS is still in the early stages of implementation, and a week's fee growth alone cannot prove the ecosystem has exploded. What truly determines whether OKB can be revalued are the number of third-party developers, the actual amount of OKB staked, on-chain fees, and whether users continue to use it without subsidies.
Locked supply is just design; sustained usage is the product.
If these data continue to grow for several months, only then can OKB truly upgrade from an "exchange token" to a "resource token of an on-chain financial operating system."
$OKB #xlayer #ExchangeOS #OKB total supply fixed at 21 million August 4th Midday Gold Outlook
The current market focus is on the Federal Reserve's policy direction in September. Officials have consecutively released hawkish statements, with U.S. Treasury yields running high, raising the holding cost of gold and suppressing the rebound potential of gold prices. Upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data will directly alter market expectations for September rate hikes, becoming the core factors influencing the market.
Geopolitically, the Middle East remains in a state of confrontation, with the risk of escalating conflict unresolved, providing support for gold as a safe haven. However, no large-scale conflict has erupted at present, so the safe-haven-driven rally effect is limited, making a one-sided rise difficult.
On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a contraction in volatility and a balanced tug-of-war. Market consolidation will become more frequent. Prices are oscillating around the middle Bollinger Band; only a firm break above the upper band can sustain the rebound, while a valid break below the lower band will open further downside space.
Reference: Rebound resistance at 4060-4080, defense at 4097, targets at 4040, 4020, 4000. $XAU Bear market August BTC has never closed positive—but pay attention to a few details:
1️⃣ BTC rose 13% in August 2023
2️⃣ BTC fell 21% in August 2024, but 2023 was an exception
3️⃣ Historical patterns are not predictions
Patterns exist, but each year's context and decline vary. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $BTC The most noteworthy topic in the crypto circle recently is Saylor's rare public face-slapping moment. Over the weekend, there was a viral rumor online that Strategy had newly approved a $5 billion $BTC selling quota. The news spread rapidly, and Saylor himself came out to put out the fire, saying this was not new information; it had already been disclosed in the capital management framework on June 29 and was just being recycled as news.
This explanation itself is not a lie, but what’s more intriguing is the next part, where he immediately emphasized that the company has never had a policy of never selling, and he specifically separated his personal holdings from the company’s treasury operations, saying he has never sold a single satoshi, but Strategy is a publicly listed company, not his personal wallet.
This statement, when compared with his past classic declaration of never selling Bitcoin, is quite a contrast. No wonder someone quickly dug up his old video where he said "we only buy, never sell" for comparison.
In terms of facts, the SEC filing on August 3 shows that Strategy did indeed sell 1,638 $BTC last week at an average price of $63,957, reducing its holdings to 842,138 coins. This is the second substantial reduction after selling 2,225 coins in early July, and there have been no new purchases for over five consecutive weeks.
What’s even more painful is the cost structure: the company’s current average cost per coin is $75,419, while the current price is just over $63,000. This means that unrealized losses on the books have become the norm rather than an exception. Coupled with a poor Q2 earnings report showing a net loss of $8.22 billion, earnings per share of negative $24.45 far below the market expectation of $3.07, and revenue slightly missing expectations.
My own view is that buying and selling $BTC itself is not the problem; any institution has the right to manage capital flexibly. The real issue is the gap between the narrative and the actions being magnified in the public market. For a company whose stock price premium is driven by faith, once holders start to question whether the founder’s statements are consistent, this trust cost is harder to repair than the unrealized losses on the books themselves.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 On July 29, Solana raised the block compute unit cap from 60 million to 100 million, an increase of 66.7%. This adjustment provides more parallel processing space for unrelated transactions, reducing the block occupancy rate of a single hot account from the previous 20% to 12%. However, the compute limit for writing to the same account within each block remains 12 million CU, and the account data increment limit remains 100MB, meaning the congestion bottleneck for hot accounts has not been fundamentally resolved. If a large number of transactions need to write to the same hot account (such as high-volume DEXs or liquidation contracts), they are still constrained by this limit. The official has not provided actual comparative data on transaction confirmation rates, fees, block propagation, or replay before and after the upgrade.From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes, the Fed's Divisions Fully Exposed
Just a few months ago, the entire market was fervently debating when the Federal Reserve would start cutting rates. Traders had already bet early on liquidity easing, with the stock market and risk assets pricing in the benefits of rate cuts in advance. Everyone assumed that after enduring inflation, easing would come soon.
In just a few months, the tide has completely turned. The market is no longer discussing when rate cuts will happen, but whether rate hikes will resume. The internal rift within the Fed has been laid bare for all to see.
At the most recent rate meeting, the rate itself remained unchanged, seemingly uneventful, but the voting results told the whole story. Nine votes chose to keep rates steady, but there were three dissenting votes, with three regional Fed presidents directly calling for an immediate 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned, whereas the previous meeting saw unanimous approval.
What’s even more intriguing is who voted against. Kashkari, previously seen as dovish, sided with the hawks this time. This is no longer a simple hawk versus dove factional battle; the stubbornness of inflation is breaking down the original stance divisions.
The root of the division comes from conflicting signals in the real economy.
Those advocating for rate hikes are straightforward: inflation hasn’t truly been suppressed. Rent and service prices remain firm, geopolitical conflicts push oil prices higher, and costs are passed down the supply chain. The large-scale construction of AI infrastructure brings new demand, indirectly pushing prices up. They judge that the current rate level is insufficient to curb inflation; if they continue to wait, inflation expectations might rise again, leading to a higher cost later. It’s better to raise rates now.
On the other hand, those choosing to hold back worry about economic resilience. High rates have persisted for a long time, and businesses and real estate are under pressure. If they recklessly tighten further, a strong rate hike could directly drag the U.S. economy into recession. They want to wait for more data to confirm inflation’s trajectory and avoid betting on aggressive tightening.
The current Fed no longer provides the market with a clear roadmap. Chair Powell has abandoned traditional forward guidance and no longer tells everyone how rates will move in the future. Neither promising hikes nor maintaining the status quo, the choice is fully left to upcoming data. This approach effectively throws uncertainty directly onto the market.
The dot plot also exposes internal fractures. Nearly half of the members believe further hikes are needed this year, with some even expecting two hikes; some think maintaining the current level is enough; only a very few still hope for cuts. There is no unified consensus, and individual judgments vary greatly.
The market’s reaction is the most honest. After the meeting, the probability of a September hike quickly rose, U.S. Treasury yields climbed steadily, U.S. stocks plunged at the close, and risk assets collectively came under pressure. Funds that had bet on rate cuts hurriedly reversed course, repricing the reality of "higher rates, lasting longer."
Many wonder, if inflation has already eased, why discuss hikes? Easing inflation does not mean inflation has met the target. The problem now is that inflation is falling too slowly and is still far from the 2% goal. External shocks like oil prices and tariffs pose rebound risks at any time. On one side, there is fear of inflation returning; on the other, fear of the economy being crushed by high rates. The Fed is caught in this dilemma.
The upcoming September meeting will be a true watershed. A new dot plot will be released, fully revealing members’ real rate expectations. Inflation data and oil price trends will directly determine whether they pull the trigger on hikes.
For global assets, this means temporarily setting aside expectations of cheap money. U.S. Treasury yields will continue rising, risk-free returns will increase, and risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies will remain under pressure. As long as such deep divisions persist within the Fed, the market will struggle to see a clear, one-sided rally; volatile, tactical trading will become the norm.
Ultimately, the Fed’s divisions reflect a real-world dilemma: suppress stubborn inflation without shattering economic resilience. Both sides carry risks, and there is no perfect answer. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 🚀 Is Google One of the Most Underrated AI Plays?
It feels like Google ($GOOG) is being overlooked in the AI conversation.
Just six months ago, Google was widely viewed as having one of the world's leading frontier language models. While competitors have dominated recent headlines, Google has continued strengthening the AI capabilities across its ecosystem.
The next phase of AI isn't just about building the smartest model—it's about integrating AI into the products people use every day.
That's where Google has a unique advantage:
📧 Gmail
🌐 Chrome
🔍 Search
📄 Docs & Workspace
📱 Android
☁️ Google Cloud
▶️ YouTube
With billions of users already inside its ecosystem, Google can deploy AI at massive scale without relying solely on attracting new users.
If AI becomes increasingly commoditized and the cost of intelligence continues to fall, distribution and ecosystem effects could become more valuable than the models themselves. Google's reach across consumer and enterprise products positions it well for that scenario.
For long-term investors, $GOOG remains one of the strongest large-cap AI businesses, combining world-class research, extensive infrastructure, and unmatched product integration.
The next chapter of AI may be won not only by the best model—but by the company that embeds AI into everyday life most effectively.
$GOOG $NVDA $MSFT
#AI #Google #ArtificialIntelligence #BigTech #Stocks #Cloud #Gemini #InvestingLike to go long, right? I have more longs than you, precisely escaping the top.
---
Family, look at the screenshot.
BTC long position, +62.08%, precise take profit.
Entered at 63680, closed at 64139, just right near the highest point.
Not long after closing, the market started to pull back.
When I say escape the top, I mean it—no hesitation.
---
😎 Why did I dare to go long on this trade?
After Palantir’s earnings blew up yesterday, I’ve been watching the market closely.
BTC slowly pushed up from around 63000, although slow, it was steady.
I combined several signals to decide to go long:
First, #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% .
After-hours rose 15% yesterday, directly boosting the whole AI sector’s sentiment. BTC, as a risk asset, is very likely to follow the short-term rally.
Second, #亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局 .
Amazon’s AI investments are starting to pay off, restoring market confidence in tech stocks.
Third, #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
Previously, the market over-priced rate hike expectations, but now seeing such big internal Fed disagreements, it’s actually a relief.
So I decisively opened a long at 63680, targeting above 64000.
Then the market gave the answer, hitting the target precisely.
🔍 This long trade wasn’t just a directional bet
I have a core judgment:
Currently, the macro environment shows a short-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
On one hand, the bearish factors I mentioned before—high US Treasury yields, US-Japan joint currency purchases (liquidity tightening), SPCX’s hundred-billion-dollar unlocking (potential selling pressure)—are still suppressing BTC’s upside.
On the other hand, the commercialization of AI is forming a hedging force.
Palantir’s earnings report is not an isolated case. AMD’s earnings are tonight, SpaceX is about to report, and Circle is the finale.
If AMD’s earnings also beat expectations, the entire AI-storage-crypto chain will be reignited.
Moreover, the Fed’s publicized disagreements reduce the urgency of short-term rate hikes, providing a breather window for risk assets.
So the current situation is: bearish pressure on top, but bullish hedging underneath.
At times like this, you can’t be stubbornly short or long; you have to follow the short-term sentiment.
🎯 What’s next?
Short term: If BTC holds above 64000, there’s a chance to push to 65000.
If AMD’s earnings beat expectations, combined with Palantir’s momentum, 65000 is possible.
Mid term: SPCX unlocking is an unavoidable hurdle; the hundred-billion-dollar liquidity shock will definitely pressure the market.
So after taking profit on this long, I won’t rush back in.
I’ll wait for AMD’s earnings to land and see the market reaction.
💬 Honestly speaking
I closed this long position quite decisively.
It’s not that I’m bearish on the future; previous liquidations taught me—profits in hand are real, unrealized gains are just numbers.
After closing, the price did push up a bit more, reaching a high of 64249.
But I don’t regret it because I know I caught the most certain part.
The rest is left for those with bigger guts to earn.
I’ll strike again at the next opportunity.
---
Family, did you follow this trade?
Press 1 if you think BTC can keep rallying, press 2 if you think a pullback is due.
Next opportunity, precise strike again.🚀
$BTC #From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes, Fed Divisions Fully Exposed
I am Brother Ci. The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have been completely laid bare. The rate hike camp and the rate cut camp have both revealed their cards simultaneously, with completely opposite directions. Such a scene is extremely rare in recent years.
The rate hike camp, represented by Logan, Harker, and Kashkari, believes that inflation has been above 2% for over five years, current policies are not restrictive enough, and interest rates should be slightly higher. The rate cut camp currently has only Waller publicly advocating, warning that the labor market may deteriorate rapidly and supporting a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. Chair Wash has not expressed a directional stance, stating that the 2% target remains unchanged, decisive action will be taken if necessary, rejecting forward guidance, and that the September path will be determined by the two CPI reports before the meeting.
Market pricing still clearly favors rate hikes, with no pricing for rate cut proposals. In other words, the market is completely on Logan's side, ignoring Waller's warnings. The Fed's internal directional divisions, combined with the market's one-sided bet on rate hikes, mean that any CPI data below expectations could trigger a sharp directional correction. Under the rate hike logic, BTC faces short-term pressure, but the narrative of fiat currency credit erosion strengthens; under the rate cut logic, BTC directly benefits from liquidity release.
For short positions on SanDisk, the high interest rate environment suppresses tech stock valuations, with the storage sector as a high Beta category taking the brunt. As long as rate hike expectations do not cool down, the valuation ceiling for tech stocks cannot rise, and the rebound space for storage stocks is limited. Continue holding the 1324.87 short position, move the stop loss up to 1320, with a target of 1200 to 1220. Around 1288 is a short-term resistance level; the macro background for the short position has not changed, waiting for the next round of decline. CPI will be the key variable to decide the direction.
Brother Ci has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. $SNDK $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：AMD and SpaceX Reports Are Imminent, Circle Takes the Spotlight
🔥 Earnings season "Big Three" reports, three sectors, three destinies
This week marks the peak of earnings season, with three reports hitting the table simultaneously—AMD (AI chip challenger), SpaceX (the largest IPO in history), and Circle (the first stablecoin public company). Three completely different sectors, three completely different report cards, revealing the core market theme for the second half of the year.
🖥️ AMD: Is the "Challenger" to Nvidia Truly Qualified?
AMD’s Q2 earnings report will be released tonight (August 4), and market expectations are already high: revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year; net profit of $1.75 billion, doubling.
But the problem is, AMD’s valuation is already maxed out. A market cap of 790 billion with a TTM P/E ratio of 159x—this isn’t buying performance, it’s buying the narrative of the "Nvidia challenger."
The real highlight of this earnings report isn’t the revenue numbers, but whether the data center business can accelerate further. Data centers already drove most of the growth in Q1, but the mass production progress of the Helios chip and the MI400 series’ ability to chip away at Nvidia’s B-series are the keys to whether AMD can move from being a "backup" to a main player.
On the other hand, the PC business is a hidden risk. Global PC shipments are weak in recovery; if data centers exceed expectations but PCs drag behind, the stock price might rise first then fall. Conversely, if both segments explode, AMD might truly challenge Nvidia’s moat.
My view: AMD’s data this quarter likely won’t be bad, but "good" and "good enough" are different. A 159x P/E means the market demands "stunning," not "okay." Expect significant post-market volatility tonight; those betting on the earnings report should buckle up.
🚀 SpaceX: Can a $1.95 Trillion Valuation Hold?
SpaceX IPO’d on June 12 at $135 per share, peaked at $225, and has now dropped to $149, a 34% pullback.
This earnings report (expected this week) might be the most watched new report this year. Why? Because SpaceX’s valuation controversy is absurdly large.
Looking at fundamentals:
- Full-year 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, net loss of $4.94 billion
- Q1 2026 single quarter revenue of $4.694 billion, net loss of $4.276 billion
- The only profitable segment is Starlink (2025 revenue $11.4 billion); rocket launches and xAI are burning cash
- Institutional consensus: profitability possible only by 2028
Valuation:
- Current market cap $1.95 trillion, 2026 expected price-to-sales ratio of 52x
- Nvidia’s PS is only 24x, Microsoft’s 10x
- Investment bank price targets vary wildly: optimists see $205–$300, conservatives $58–$78, extreme bears $30
More trouble: employee and early investor shares will unlock at the end of August, causing circulating shares to multiply several times in Q4, leading to expected selling pressure.
SpaceX’s story is indeed compelling—10 million Starlink subscribers, $22 billion government contracts, Starship’s Mars ambitions. But a $1.95 trillion valuation means the market is pricing it as the "Apple of space." The problem is, Apple earns $100 billion annually, SpaceX loses over $10 billion annually. This gap can’t be bridged by storytelling.
My view: short-term bearish. The unlocking wave, ongoing losses, and valuation bubble are heavy burdens. Unless the earnings report is an "outperformance of outperformance," the stock price will likely remain under pressure. Long-term investors can wait for valuation to return to a reasonable range.
💵 Circle: The "Regulatory Dividend" for Stablecoins Has Arrived
Circle’s Q2 earnings report will be released pre-market on August 5 (tomorrow), and it’s the easiest of the three to be underestimated.
Key points:
- USDC circulation: about $77 billion in Q1, slightly down to about $73 billion in Q2, reserve income supported by interest rates
- Distribution costs: signed an agreement with Hyperliquid in May, renewing with Coinbase in August; will the revenue share be squeezed?
- Biggest catalyst: obtained a national trust bank charter from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on July 10, potentially bringing $20 million in additional annual income; more importantly, Circle officially entered the core of the regulated financial system
The stablecoin sector is undergoing a critical turning point. The CLARITY Act progress, bank charter approvals, and traditional financial institutions beginning to integrate USDC—these are not short-term hype but structural dividends. Circle’s management maintains a long-term CAGR growth expectation of 40% for USDC, and although the market is skeptical, regulatory breakthroughs are indeed raising the ceiling.
My view: Circle has the highest "certainty" among the three. No valuation bubble like SpaceX, no giant competitor pressure like AMD. The stablecoin narrative is shifting from "crypto speculation tool" to "global payment infrastructure," and Circle, as the USDC issuer, is the most direct beneficiary of this transformation. If USDC circulation stops declining and rebounds in tomorrow’s earnings, the stock price could surprise.
🎯 Three Reports, One Main Theme
Looking at these three earnings reports together is interesting:
- AMD represents "AI hardware competition"—the chip sector is getting more crowded, valuations higher, and tolerance for mistakes lower
- SpaceX represents "narrative exhaustion"—the good story is over, the market now demands real profits
- Circle represents "regulatory implementation"—the crypto industry is moving from gray areas to compliance, and value revaluation is just beginning
The market’s main theme for the second half of the year may not be "how much more AI can rise," but "which sectors can turn stories into performance, and which have to pay the bill." AMD and SpaceX will see large volatility under the pressure of "performance debt," while Circle, with regulatory moats and relatively stable performance, may become a safe haven for capital.
This is purely personal observation and not investment advice. Which of these three earnings reports are you most optimistic about? Let’s discuss in the comments.8.4 Afternoon
Today's market showed a repair move with an initial drop followed by a pullback. BTC touched a low of 62268 in the early session, then directly rallied, rebounding to around 64239 at the highest point. It is currently oscillating around 63800. ETH hit a low near 1827 and simultaneously rebounded to 1898, now oscillating around 1865. The early session basically exhausted the bears' strength, resulting in a rebound repair.
Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, BTC had been declining steadily before this rebound, which has now reclaimed the mid-term key price level. This indicates the bears' selling power has temporarily been exhausted, but since it hasn't surpassed the previous high, it is not a complete reversal to bullish. Overall, it remains in a consolidation repair phase after the decline. ETH is moving in sync with BTC, rebounding from lows but unable to break or hold above mid-term resistance, also in a consolidation repair phase, not yet ready for a one-sided rally.
On the 1-hour short-term chart, BTC stalled after reaching 64200 and is now oscillating at a high level. There is heavy selling pressure near 64400 above, with support around 63000 below. The rebound momentum is somewhat lacking, so it will likely test support downward first, solidify it, then consider pushing higher. ETH follows the same pattern, pulling back after hitting short-term resistance, currently oscillating above 1850 support, with resistance between 1880-1890. After the rebound, it will consolidate to digest gains; only after stabilizing support can it continue rising.
Afternoon trading suggestions:
$BTC Buy on dips near 63000-63400, target 64200-64600
$ETH Buy on dips near 1845-1855, target 1885-1905
$SNDK The US and Japan are working together to support the yen, but the ammunition in the arsenal may not be enough. The latest report from Evercore ISI points out that a Fed liquidity tool rarely used in daily life may instead become a "magnifying glass" for the market to test the U.S.-Japan intervention resolve. $60 billion vs $53 billion: The numbers game. This tool is called the FIMA Repurchase Facility (a buyback mechanism for foreign and international monetary authorities), allowing overseas central banks to borrow up to $60 billion in short-term dollars from the Federal Reserve using U.S. Treasuries as collateral, avoiding direct selling of Treasuries and shocking the market. According to Bank of Japan data, the single-day intervention on July 30 was about $53 billion, which is very close to the $60 billion ceiling. Evercore strategists bluntly stated that the market will be fixated on this "ceiling" to test the U.S. and Japan's determination to intervene—if the market is convinced intervention requires more ammunition and the account limit is the limit, bears will only bet more fearlessly. The Other Side of the Coin: Why Use It? Knowing there is an upper limit, the US and Japan still chose to use FIMA to avoid worse situations. Japan holds about $1.14 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries. If Japan sells U.S. Treasuries directly to raise intervention funds, it could further push up the 30-year yield (5.23%), already at a 19-year high, thereby intensifying volatility in the Treasury market. This is essentially a tightrope walk: borrowing money from FIMA, with a cap of 60 billion, can last a while, but not forever. If this continues for a long time, the market will become suspicious of the authoritiesOne more thing regarding $TSLA: Recently, there has been a rumor circulating online that Elon Musk said if the humanoid robot can't be made, the project will be directly scrapped. I specifically looked into this and couldn't find any reliable source for this claim. Most likely, it's a misunderstanding or misremembering of the context, so I want to clarify here.
The truth is actually the opposite. Musk's statements in recent earnings calls have consistently been about doubling down on Optimus rather than setting exit conditions. In the Q1 earnings call this April, he said Optimus would be Tesla's biggest single product ever, possibly the biggest single product in history, with a long-term sales scale he estimates could reach the $10 trillion level. More concrete actions include Tesla having already stopped the Model S and Model X production lines at the Fremont factory to free up space specifically for building the Optimus production line, targeting an annual capacity at the million-unit level. This is real investment, not leaving an exit route.
The only statement that could be considered close to candid was his admission during the call that Optimus mass production is Tesla's toughest manufacturing ramp because the entire supply chain is built from scratch with no existing system to reuse. This is an acknowledgment of execution difficulty, which is completely different from saying the project will be scrapped if it can't be made. So the rumor itself doesn't hold up. I recommend checking original sources before sharing such claims, as these kinds of out-of-context or misattributed statements spread very quickly in the financial community.
$TSLA #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
The final climax of earnings season, with three earnings reports released from tonight until tomorrow morning. AMD, SpaceX, and Circle represent AI chips, space economy, and stablecoins respectively.
AMD reports after the market closes tonight.
Market expectations for Q2 revenue are $11.31 billion, a 47% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share around $1.05. The data center segment is the biggest highlight, expected revenue of $6.5 billion, doubling year-over-year, including $4 billion from server chips and $2.5 billion from AI chips. AMD’s stock price has already doubled this year but has pulled back nearly 20% from the June peak. The options market is betting on about a 10% stock price volatility after the earnings. Historically, AMD often beats expectations, but this time the market is looking not just for "beats," but whether the data center growth can support the valuation of AI chips.
SpaceX reports after the market closes the same day, facing greater pressure.
Market expectations for Q2 revenue are $6.87 billion, a clear increase from $4.7 billion in Q1. However, adjusted loss per share is expected to be around $0.25. Starlink is the only profitable segment, contributing $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit in Q1, with Q2 expected to reach $3.82 billion.
The real trouble is on August 6. 911.5 million internal shares will be unlocked, while currently only about 600 million shares are circulating. Shorts have already piled up $24.6 billion, and the stock price has fallen from the IPO high of $225 to below $110. The earnings numbers themselves may not be that important; how management soothes market concerns about the unlocking is the real focus.
Circle closes the show before the market opens on Thursday.
Market expectations for Q2 revenue are $717 million, with earnings per share around $0.16. USDC circulation has dropped from 77 billion in Q1 to about 73 billion, which is the biggest concern. A shrinking circulation means the fundamental reserve income base is narrowing. The market is asking: is stablecoin growth peaking?
The stories of these three companies are actually connected along one line. AMD sells chips to AI companies, SpaceX’s AI data centers rent these chips, and Circle’s stablecoin provides liquidity for the entire crypto ecosystem. AMD needs to see if AI chip demand can support its valuation, SpaceX needs to see if Starlink’s cash flow can cover its burn rate, and Circle needs to see if USDC’s growth is slowing.
Each company is answering different questions, but the answers will affect the same market.Are there any fellow traders with similar position costs? The current market trend has really exceeded expectations.
The market briefly dipped to 1826 points, with the price seemingly about to touch the break-even line, then quickly rebounded to 1868.
I hold 50 short positions on Ethereum with an average cost set at 1783. Currently, the unrealized loss is 4214 units of the underlying asset. If the market drops another eighty points or so, this position can be successfully closed without loss.
The recent upward movement in Ethereum’s price is not purely driven by technical patterns; the core logic comes from market expectations of easing geopolitical tensions: the US signaled restarting negotiations and canceling planned military actions, but related parties quickly clarified that no direct bilateral communication has started yet, only third-party coordination on strait navigation issues. There is a clear divergence in information between the sides, and the easing has not yet materialized.
After the news, commodity prices fell, overall risk-off sentiment cooled, US stocks and high-volatility alternative assets absorbed incremental funds, and Ethereum completed a rapid rebound from 1826 to 1868. The short positions briefly saw hope for breaking even but then faced renewed pressure.
The geopolitical game cycle is not over yet. If subsequent negotiations stall or shipping channel risks reemerge, commodity prices and risk sentiment could reverse, giving short positions a chance to recover on paper.
At the same time, overseas digital asset regulatory bills are advancing, providing long-term support for Ethereum. The new bill clarifies the responsibilities of multiple regulatory agencies, platform registration, investor protection, anti-money laundering constraints, and restrictions on public officials’ holdings. For Ethereum, which has high institutional participation, clearer regulations strengthen long-term capital willingness to invest; however, the bill is still in draft form and not yet enacted. Different parties and financial institutions still hold divergent views, so short-term market moves are driven more by sentiment, and the final enactment remains uncertain.
The token BEAT unlocked about 21.25 million tokens on August 1, accounting for 6.9% of the circulating supply. The market generally expected large-scale unlocking to bring selling pressure, but the price actually rose over 16% against the trend, forcing many early short positions to exit passively. Current funds mainly revolve around two narratives: one is the AI agent economy ecosystem layout, and the other is the revenue buyback and burn mechanism. The short-term selling pressure from large unlocking is temporarily offset by positive narratives, but new circulating supply objectively exists. Once market sentiment weakens, existing tokens will gradually be released. This token’s price volatility is very high and unpredictable, so it is not suitable for chasing highs currently.
The token SNDK has recently continued its upward trend, rising over 5% intraday as funds preemptively speculate on the August 5 earnings report. Its last quarter’s total revenue was $5.95 billion, a 97% quarter-over-quarter increase, with data center business growing 233% quarter-over-quarter. The core growth driver is AI server large-capacity storage demand. This quarter’s institutional revenue forecast ranges from $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion. The market is no longer satisfied with just meeting regular targets and generally expects data to exceed expectations. If the earnings report disappoints, concentrated profit-taking at high levels could trigger a rapid pullback. With two key events approaching—the August 5 earnings release and the August 13 investor conference—price volatility is expected to increase significantly.
My personal outlook for the market: geopolitical news will continue to fluctuate, regulatory bills will maintain speculative momentum, and Ethereum will likely consolidate and wash out between 1860 and 1900. If the 1898–1900 range cannot be effectively broken, the market may fall back to test support at 1840, and in extreme cases approach 1800 again. I expect the market to drop about eighty points to break even and exit. The current position is already very close to the risk control warning line.On Aug. 3, spot ETF flows remained mixed:
🟢 $BTC: +$170.09M inflows
🔴 $ETH : -$11.42M outflows
🟢 $XRP: +$1.15M inflows
Bitcoin continued to attract fresh capital, while Ethereum recorded modest outflows. $XRP also finished the day with positive net inflows.
#DailyOrbit #FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch $BTC $ETH 【🧱ETH sideways at 1864, bulls and bears deadlocked awaiting a breakout】
ETH has been stuck around 1860 for several days, with a volatility of less than 2%, and the market has entered an extremely low-volume wait-and-see state.
Mixed news: BitMine increased its holdings by 10,399 ETH last week, bringing total holdings to 5.8 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of circulating supply, just one step away from the 5% target; meanwhile, a giant whale has withdrawn a total of 112,000 ETH from Gemini over three weeks and staked them. However, the liquidation of over 26,000 ETH short positions shows that bearish pressure still exists, and the sustainability of ETF inflows remains to be seen.
Technical analysis: 1860 is a dense chip area, with resistance above at 1890-1920 and support below at 1830-1840. Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, signaling an approaching turning point.
Short-term strategy: Stay mostly bullish but cautious before a volume breakout; hold above 1900 to be bullish, exit and wait if it falls below 1830. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% $BTC $SOL It feels like Google ($GOOG) is being overlooked in the AI conversation.
Just a few months ago, Google was widely recognized for having one of the strongest frontier AI models, and it still hasn't unveiled its next flagship release.
The next phase of AI isn't just about building better models—it's about integrating AI into the products people use every day.
That's where Google has a unique advantage.
From Search and Chrome to Gmail, Android, Workspace, and its broader ecosystem, Google has an unmatched distribution network to bring AI into billions of daily interactions.
Even if open-source AI becomes dominant and the cost of intelligence keeps falling, Google's ecosystem and network effects could remain a significant competitive edge.
For long-term investors, $GOOGL still looks like one of the strongest core holdings for gaining exposure to frontier AI.
The AI story may only be getting started.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise Allow yourself to not make money on days without market movement, allow yourself to rest, instead of being triggered by others' stories of sudden wealth to make trades you are not good at or confident in. This will only make you lose money, and when your opportunity comes, you won't have the capital. This is the most painful thing in trading. $PLTRB
In a bear market, just take it easy and have fun. Those who want to improve should read trading books to enrich themselves. You don't need to make money all the time, but wait for the opportunity to make a big profit. $AAOI
Remember, not losing money in a bear market means you've already beaten 95% of people! $OPNI am honored to be selected for the Creator Weekly Report. This content actually stems from an idea I had while recently observing the macro market. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
At that time, I saw WTI crude oil drop 8.68% in a single day. Many market interpretations focused on "rising expectations of a ceasefire, risk relief," but I think there might be an easily overlooked point here:
The market trades on changes in expectations, not on outcomes that have already occurred.
So I didn’t simply write "oil prices fell, which is positive for risk assets," but wanted to further analyze the transmission relationship between the geopolitical risks behind oil prices, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy.
The biggest challenge when writing this was how to avoid making the complex macro logic too complicated. Because factors like oil prices, war, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and BTC seem independent but are actually connected through liquidity.
What I most want to express in this article is:
Investing cannot just focus on short-term sentiment brought by a single news event; it is more important to understand why the market reacts this way and whether this logic can sustain.
For example, the drop in oil prices does ease inflation pressure, but a ceasefire does not mean risks are completely over. So rather than chasing the rally, I pay more attention to two subsequent signals:
One is whether geopolitical risks continue to cool down, and the other is whether the Federal Reserve releases more dovish policy signals.
This is also the approach I have consistently adhered to in my recent market writings—not just repeating the news, but trying to break down the logic behind events so everyone can see the connections between different assets.
Being selected for the weekly report after publishing this is also an encouragement for me. I hope to continue recording market changes in this way and share my observations with more friends.#亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局
Amazon's market value has surpassed 3 trillion.
On August 3rd, it closed up 4.6%, with a cumulative gain of over 20% in the two trading days following the earnings report. The driver is just one thing—AWS quarterly revenue of $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, with a backlog of $496 billion in orders.
But there is an action here more worth pondering than the data itself.
Amazon's $50 billion investment in OpenAI has been fully allocated, with the condition that OpenAI will spend $100 billion on AWS over eight years.
Exchanging 50 billion for 100 billion sounds like a good deal. But looking closely at the terms—the holding form is Series C preferred stock, which can only be converted when OpenAI completes an IPO or other liquidity event. The $100 billion cloud orders are currently just commitments, not revenue that has already materialized.
This is quite similar to some practices in the crypto space. A project receives investment from leading institutions while promising to lock part of its tokens or revenue streams within a certain ecosystem. Both sides get what they need: institutions get low-priced chips, and the project gains resource support. But whether it can be fulfilled ultimately depends on whether the project itself can succeed.
What is the takeaway for the crypto world?
The binding between AI giants is shifting from "cooperation" to "investment lock-in." Exchanging 50 billion for 100 billion essentially locks customers into their own ecosystem. This logic is the same as top crypto platforms locking in quality projects through investment plus ecosystem binding.
But the premise is—you must first have a revenue base like AWS to play this "investment for orders" game. Crypto projects without real revenue basically have no chance of replicating this model.
My judgment is simple: the core driver behind Amazon breaking 3 trillion is the quality of AWS's revenue, not that $50 billion investment. For the crypto market, this logic applies as well—the true support for valuation is always revenue, not stories.
$BTC $SNDK $ETH $BTC $ETH 隔夜地缘冲突降温 油价回调 10年期美债收益率回落 美股全线收涨创阶段新高 但BTC只勉强在63000附近窄幅震荡 冲64000就被按回来 涨幅明显滞后股市 盘面走得很清楚 利好在定价 但加密这边的买入意愿明显比美股弱 这种背离说明资金还没有完全回归风险偏好 ETH在1860附近横着 主流山寨分化 只有Avax这类少数标的在带 整体没有形成合力 过去24小时爆仓2.4亿 空头平仓力度更强 未平仓合约小幅抬升 资金有小幅多头布局迹象 但力度很弱 不足以推动突破 消息面 Coldcard被盗资产接近9000万 短期压制冷钱包板块情绪 MSTR持续抛售BTC的预期也压着上方空间 宏观上联储官员维持利率水平表态 机构上调年末加息预期 市场还在等通胀数据给方向 总结一句 地缘短期缓和给了情绪修复窗口 但上面抛压没消化完 单边趋势条件不成熟 操作上依托支撑和压力区间高抛低吸 别追涨杀跌 盯紧晚间美盘资金流向和美债收益率波动 方向没出来之前 仓位比判断重要#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，Tips for Turning US Stock Markets into Crypto: How do pre-market, after-hours, night sessions, and 24-hour trading come about? U.S. stock trading hours will worsen until 24 hours. Just look at its history and you'll understand: 🔹 1985: The US stock market, represented by the Nasdaq, only had morning and afternoon sessions, with no after-hours trading. Just like A-shares. 🔹 1991: Trading volumes in London and Tokyo surged sharply, but not in the same time zone as the US stocks. If trading hours are not extended, global funds can only go to local exchanges. So Nasdaq took the lead in launching ECN (Electronic Communication Network) trading after hours, extending it by one hour (just business competition). 🔹 1990s~2000: With frequent financial reports, economic data, and geopolitical conflicts, these events often occur during Asian or European sessions. If U.S. stocks do not offer after-hours trading, there is a large risk of gap-ups, leading to continuous orders flowing out. Therefore, major exchanges have gradually expanded after-hours trading hours, with only one core goal: to retain orders and prevent diversion of orders. (Once everyone understands, they're starting to grab users.) 🔹 2024: A historic step — U.S. stocks officially launch 24-hour trading (overnight trading). 🔹 2026: 24-hour trading will become mainstream and standard. 📌 The core reason is simple: 24×7 trading in cryptocurrency and forex markets has become the global standard. If you don't provide it, users vote with their feet, and both orders and liquidity are transferred away.Saylor sold 1,638 BTC, but the real danger is not this $100 million, it's that Strategy's "money printing machine" has started to reverse
Many are still debating: Did Saylor betray the belief of "never selling coins"?
But what’s most worth noting about this sale isn’t faith, but that the capital cycle Strategy relies on to drive growth is switching from positive feedback to negative feedback.
In the past week, Strategy sold 1,638 BTC, raising about $105 million, reducing its holdings to 842,138 BTC.
The proceeds from the sale were used to pay preferred stock dividends, repurchase securities, and replenish USD reserves.
The company had previously authorized selling up to $1.25 billion in BTC if necessary, for dividends, interest, and buybacks.
On the surface, this batch of BTC accounts for only about 0.19% of total holdings, which is insufficient to create sustained selling pressure on the market.
So, looking at the amount sold alone is almost meaningless.
What really matters is: Strategy has for the first time clearly proven that the cash costs generated by its issued financial products may ultimately need to be repaid by BTC itself.
Strategy’s strongest business model in the past was an extremely elegant positive cycle:
MSTR trades at a premium to BTC net asset value
→ The company issues stock and preferred shares at high prices to raise capital
→ Uses the capital to buy more BTC
→ BTC per share increases
→ The market continues to assign a higher valuation
→ Refinancing and buying more BTC.
In a bull market, this model was almost like a "perpetual motion machine" continuously buying BTC with Wall Street funds.
But when MSTR’s mNAV premium disappears, or the enterprise value falls near BTC asset value, issuing common stock at low prices dilutes shareholders;
Preferred shares can still raise funds but require continuous high cash dividends.
Strategy even raised STRC’s annual dividend rate to 12% (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).
Then the cycle begins to reverse:
BTC falls
→ MSTR premium shrinks
→ Equity financing efficiency declines
→ Preferred stock price is pressured, financing costs rise
→ The company needs cash to pay dividends and interest
→ Sells BTC to replenish cash
→ The market further lowers MSTR’s valuation.
This is the real signal released by this sale:
Strategy is no longer simply a BTC hoarder, but a BTC financial institution that must actively manage liabilities, dividends, and liquidity.
This does not mean Strategy will immediately liquidate, nor that BTC will crash because of this 1,638 BTC sale.
The company still holds over 840,000 BTC, about 4% of Bitcoin’s final supply; and this sale is very small relative to its holdings (The Wall Street Journal).
But the market must reprice it.
Previously, investors bought MSTR for "leveraged BTC + never selling coins + continuous accumulation."
Now investors are buying:
BTC price exposure
+ complex preferred stock structure
+ fixed dividend obligations
+ debt interest
+ management’s risk of timing BTC trades.
Therefore, my judgment is:
The short-term impact on BTC is emotional; the medium to long-term impact depends on whether selling becomes normalized; for MSTR itself, it is a permanent downgrade of valuation logic.
Going forward, don’t just focus on how many coins Saylor sold, but watch three indicators:
First, can MSTR’s mNAV relative to BTC net asset value return to a clear premium? Without a premium, the machine for issuing shares to buy BTC cannot operate efficiently.
Second, can STRC stabilize near its $100 par value? If high dividends still cannot support the price, it means the market demands higher risk compensation.
Third, are USD reserves increasing or continuously consumed by dividends, interest, and buybacks? If cash reserves keep declining, BTC will gradually shift from a "permanent reserve asset" to the "last source of liquidity."
So, the most important takeaway is:
Saylor hasn’t suddenly lost faith in BTC; rather, Strategy’s capital structure has begun to require BTC to generate cash flow for it.
1,638 BTC is not important.
What matters is that the machine once only responsible for absorbing BTC has now, for the first time, shown the market its outlet.According to the latest 8-K filing, just last week MicroStrategy sold another 1,638 $BTC at an average price of $63,957, cashing out $105 million.
The selling price is significantly lower than the company's average holding cost of $75,419, representing a loss reduction. Of the proceeds from selling the coins, $52.4 million was used to pay preferred stock dividends, and $52.3 million was used to repurchase $STRC.
In my tweet on July 7, I speculated that MicroStrategy might be shifting its strategy towards "liquidity management." The arbitrage opportunity lies within its own capital structure.
For example, when the market price of STRC with a 12% annual interest rate deviates significantly from its face value (100), selling BTC and then buying back this note's certain yield is far more profitable than holding BTC on the margin.
Now, MicroStrategy is confirming this speculation with concrete actions.
Just a few days ago, during the earnings call, the company surprisingly stated that under the current capital management plan, it might sell up to about $5 billion worth of BTC. This is four times higher than the $1.25 billion mentioned in the board-authorized plan announced on June 29.
Whether intentional or not, Michael Saylor's tweet yesterday completely omitted any mention of "selling BTC," only emphasizing increased dollar reserves and repurchasing STRC.
Perhaps he feels conflicted and complicated inside. After all, he once vowed "never to sell coins"—he probably hasn't forgotten that and now just wants to play dumb? bitcoin:native, why $40k won't be the bottom. Just a technical fact.
I emphasized this back in March. Now is a good time to reiterate.
Almost every rational trader on CT views $40k as the bottom target. Understandable—all trading concepts are based on logic built from historical data, and past cycle bottoms have been near the 0.786 Fibonacci level. That's where $40k comes from.
But here are the facts this framework ignores:
1. In any past bear market, the price has never cleanly traded below the previous cycle's high. The 2021 high was at $65k.
2. Returns for each cycle are sharply diminishing. 2017→2021 high: +250%. 2021→2025 high: +82%. The magnitude to create those deep Fibonacci retracements no longer exists.
3. Price action has structurally changed. This cycle's market has never traded as a whole—liquidity has never rotated from BTC to other assets. The old cycle's mathematical models are being applied to a market that no longer operates like the old cycles.
So as early as January, I reached a simple conclusion: HTF support/resistance levels and liquidity are more important here than any indicator.
Tracking liquidity, BTC has only two clear value zones: the $75k-55k range and the $30k-25k range. Between them is the 2021 price range and a gap, which price has only crossed vertically once, never establishing value there.
That's the whole argument. BTC won't bottom at $40k because $40k is not a level but a void. Either $55k holds, or the price must dig all the way down to $29k—the 2021 range low plus gap fill.
No middle ground. This is exactly why the $40k faction waits at a price level that has no reason to be respected.The shift of cloud providers from selling computing power to selling intelligence has brought plenty of profits. I always thank the market's flawed logic.
After all, who would refuse considerable returns?
Currently, I observe two major logical errors in the market, and following these mistakes together might cause you to miss a huge wave of opportunities.
Error 1: The belief that Kimi and DeepSeek will cause US cloud providers' capital expenditures to peak, preventing other companies from making money, is very wrong.
$AMZN $MSFT $ORCL $CRWV $NBIS can also deploy k3, and DeepSeek sells tokens.
The market might still not understand what open-source models really are.
Error 2: "Anyone can deploy open-source models, so cloud providers have no competitive edge"—this is very wrong.
Not everyone can afford to deploy such large-scale models or build massive multi-card network interconnections that squeeze GPU performance to the limit. Moreover, cloud providers have a full suite of B2B capabilities like permission management, security controls, sandboxing, and more. The process and impact are very profound.
As always, my principle remains: be disciplined, keep cash positions, buy when no one is interested, and sell when the crowd is loud.
If I see more and more self-media promoting these ideas and fewer people criticizing me, I will choose to sell my short-term holdings without hesitation while holding long-term positions.
AI development will not change because of stock price fluctuations; AI is still in its early stages.Bitcoin still sits within a broader downtrend, but multiple lower- and mid-timeframe indicators are beginning to suggest a potential bottom may be forming.
Price has reclaimed the 50-day moving average and continues to hold above the 200-week moving average—a level that has historically separated bull and bear markets.
The context is encouraging. Despite headwinds such as Michael Saylor's $BTC sale, the Coldcard security incident, and ongoing quantum computing concerns, Bitcoin has continued grinding higher rather than breaking down. That's often the kind of resilience seen near major lows.
That said, several key resistance levels still need to be reclaimed before a sustained bull run can be confirmed. These include the multi-year trend channel, the previous cycle high around $69K, and the 3-day 50 MA.
The most likely scenario remains a period of consolidation and volatility before a decisive breakout. Even so, the overall outlook is becoming increasingly constructive.
Looking ahead, the biggest potential catalysts remain geopolitical developments involving Iran, progress on the CLARITY Act, advances in the quantum narrative, and the U.S. midterm elections. Everything else is likely to have a smaller impact on the broader trend.The Fed's internal split moving into public view is the more important development this week, not the earnings cycle. Three dissents at July's meeting was already unusual; now the hawkish minority is speaking openly outside the committee room. Markets have shrugged it off so far, which is itself data.
BTC holding above $63K while Strategy trims another 1,638 coins is the cleaner read on underlying demand. The prior sell in late July was 3,500-plus; the scale is shrinking, and price is not breaking. That suggests real absorption, not just speculative float. The AMD and SpaceX prints this week and whatever tone the hawkish Fed members set will test whether the tape stays this steady or the bid finally thins out.
DYOR.
#OKXOrbit🚨 Yushi Technology is going public! Is $TSLA Tesla's Optimus worried? 🤖📉
Family, big news! The domestic humanoid robot "unicorn" Yushi Technology has officially announced its IPO progress: price inquiry on August 5, subscription on August 10! This is not only a major event for the A-share market but also an earthquake in the global robotics community! 💥
Many are asking: what does this mean for Tesla and Elon Musk next door? Today, let's dig into the details! 👇
⚔️ 1. Price war warning: ¥99,000 vs $30,000?
What’s Yushi’s strongest point? Extreme cost performance! Their G1 series has directly set the price at ¥99,000 RMB (about $14,000).
● Tesla’s current status: Although Musk claims to bring Optimus below $20,000, it is still in the PPT and factory internal testing phase, and the mass production cost remains a mystery.
● Impact: Yushi uses real money and low prices to tell the market: "Humanoid robots don’t have to be expensive!" This directly puts a huge constraint on Tesla Optimus’s future pricing strategy. If Tesla sells it at a high price, why would the market pay?
🏭 2. "China speed" forces "first principles"
Yushi took only about 100 days from acceptance to registration effectiveness. This "Yushi speed" demonstrates the terrifying iteration capability of the Chinese supply chain.
● Impact on Tesla: Musk’s proud "first principles" and vertical integration capabilities now face a strong competitor. Yushi has already achieved small batch shipments and commercial application (factory work, even home use), while Tesla is still in the "pie-in-the-sky" stage.
● Conclusion: This will force Tesla to accelerate Optimus’s mass production process and can no longer take its time polishing it, or else the Chinese market may be seized first.
🔋 3. The supply chain "spare tire" becomes the "main player"
Yushi’s IPO fundraising is mainly for expanding production and R&D, meaning domestic core components (reducers, sensors, motors) will see large-scale volume growth.
● Capital market indicator: The capital market will re-examine the humanoid robot industry chain. Previously, everyone only focused on Tesla’s chain (Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Top Group, etc.), but now the valuation logic of companies in Yushi’s chain (such as Zhongda Lide, Ludi Harmonic, etc.) has changed.
● Potential cooperation? In the future, to reduce costs, might Tesla also consider purchasing China’s high cost-performance components? Yushi’s rise proves this path is feasible.
💡 Summary
Yushi Technology’s IPO is not a "disaster" for Tesla but the "strongest catalyst"! ⚡️
It breaks Tesla’s "solo act" in the humanoid robot field and announces the start of the "duopoly battle" era. For us consumers, when big companies compete, technology iterates faster, and prices drop, that’s the biggest benefit! 🎉Quantum alarm raised again! Cramer plans to liquidate BTC holdings, sparking a sweeping industry-wide security debate
Odaily Planet Daily reports that CNBC's well-known host Jim Cramer publicly stated his plan to sell all his Bitcoin holdings. The core concern driving this decision: quantum computing could break Bitcoin's underlying security mechanisms in about three years.
This statement is not baseless hype. It stems from a warning by IBM Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna in a July 30 interview, where he cautioned the market that quantum computing is expected to pose a substantial challenge to modern elliptic curve cryptography within the next three to four years.
Industry panic continues to ferment, with the trigger tracing back to a major paper released by Google Quantum AI in March this year. The research team recalculated the attack threshold: the number of physical qubits required to break Bitcoin's encryption algorithm was drastically reduced, estimated to be under 500,000—only one-twentieth of earlier predictions.
Simply put, the technical barrier to effective attacks has been proven by research to be far lower than the market previously believed.
We must objectively distinguish between theoretical projections and the current hardware gap:
Currently, global quantum systems remain at the stage of several hundred to a few thousand physical qubits, with very few logical qubits that have error correction capabilities and stable usability. There is still a huge engineering gap before building a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of reliably running Shor's algorithm to break ECDSA signatures. The risk is a long-term gray rhino, not an immediate black swan.
However, a set of on-chain data deserves high vigilance from all BTC holders.
Research institutions estimate that about 30% of Bitcoin supply, roughly 6 to 7 million BTC, is long-term held in addresses with exposed public keys.
As long as the public key remains permanently public on-chain, once mature quantum computers emerge, these assets will be the first exposed to theft risk. This includes many early P2PK legacy addresses, reused wallet addresses, and Taproot address assets. Funds stored in these addresses are essentially exposed long-term.
Current market three-layer deep thinking
1. How to view Jim Cramer's liquidation remarks?
Market insiders know well that the "reverse Cramer effect" has long existed; his bearish views often serve as contrarian signals. But we cannot simply dismiss this as a joke.
The greatest significance of this event: quantum risk has officially stepped out of cryptography forums and entered mainstream financial media. More traditional investors are beginning to reassess Bitcoin's underlying long-term security risks, and capital risk appetite will be continuously disturbed.
2. Bitcoin's native mechanism has inherent shortcomings
When Bitcoin was created, quantum computing threats were not considered in its design. The entire signature system relies on elliptic curve algorithms, which are naturally vulnerable to Shor's algorithm.
For the network to complete a quantum-resistant upgrade, a high consensus across the entire network is required, and soft forks and protocol migrations proceed extremely slowly. Ordinary retail investors have two traditional coping methods:
① Avoid reusing wallet addresses; after transfers, switch to new addresses to prevent permanent public key exposure on-chain;
② Gradually migrate assets to quantum-resistant architecture systems to proactively avoid long-term risks.
3. The sector landscape faces a new round of selection: who can solve the dual needs of self-custody + long-term security
Recently, two major industry reflections have erupted:
First, Coldcard hardware wallet revealed vulnerabilities, shattering the illusion of "absolute security" in hardware wallets;
Second, the long-term threat of quantum computing has surfaced, exposing hidden long-term security risks in static coin hoarding.
The market is searching for the next-generation solution: one that ensures asset private keys are self-held without third-party custody, is compatible with future quantum-resistant upgrade paths, and can generate continuous yield on idle BTC.
This is also one of the most important incremental logics in BTCFi's long-term narrative. The pure spot coin hoarding era is continuously exposing problems.
Rational market judgment
In the short term, quantum risk remarks are emotional disturbances insufficient to drive BTC out of its unilateral trend. The current market remains anchored to multiple macro variables including 30-year US Treasury yields, Middle East geopolitics, and institutional BTC portfolio adjustments.
There is no need to panic sell because of a research paper or a financial host's statement, but the long-term technological transformation risk must not be ignored.
Operational approach:
1. Review your wallet addresses and avoid storing long-term funds in old addresses with exposed public keys;
2. Do not concentrate large assets in a single carrier; diversify with hardware wallets and on-chain self-custody solutions;
3. For long-term layout, prioritize BTCFi infrastructure with underlying security iteration capabilities and native self-custody systems.
Risk always remains for those who take chances. The brewing cycle of storms is often long; advance defensive strategies to avoid being caught off guard when the wave hits.
$BTC $ETH $CORE
#QuantumComputing #OnChainSecurity #BTCFi
⚠️Content is for informational and opinion purposes only, not investment advice, DYOR $DOGE $SNDK $SKHYNIX $PLTR
After-hours surge of 12%! The market thinks it's just a defense stock relying on government contracts?
This quarter, what really exploded wasn't total revenue, but "U.S. commercial revenue" — up 149% year-over-year, which means it more than doubled by 2.5 times.
In the past, everyone laughed at the AIP platform as marketing hype, but this quarter, enterprise customer net revenue retention soared to 157% (meaning existing customers not only stayed but also bought more), with 220 new contracts over one million dollars signed in a single quarter, and total contract value grew 49% year-over-year to $3.37 billion.
While other software stocks are still struggling with "how to monetize AI," Palantir has already turned it into a money-printing machine — using a five-day Bootcamp workshop to let customers directly run usable AI results on their own data, compressing the traditional year-long procurement cycle into a deal closed within a week.
Don't just focus on government orders for this stock; the valuation ceiling has long been redefined by the commercial side.
$PLTR
#USStocks #AIMonetization #EarningsAnalysis #USStockInvestment
157% net revenue retention vs. 71x P/E ratio — if you are a Palantir shareholder, does this earnings report make you want to buy more, or do you think it's time to take profits first? Bitcoin dominance is like a hyena circling its prey. The pack is distracted by scraps, but the apex predator's eyes remain fixed on the real prize.
The alts are getting restless, with $ADA, $ZEC, $APT, $KITE, and $PUMP enjoying a 24-hour party. $ADA's 5.79% surge is nothing to sneeze at, but its flow patterns paint a more nuanced picture. Liquidity is trickling in, with a few notable exceptions.
$BTC = the anchor holding up the ship, but what's the cargo? $ETH is pulling in institutional inflows, amplifying market volatility. Meanwhile, $SOL's 3% daily range is a ticking time bomb, waiting to unleash chaos.
Don't get caught chasing last week's alts. Focus on the whales that control the flow.
"Your market narrative is only as strong as its weakest link."Elon Musk truly deserves the title of the king of trade calls
Regarding "Looking back, this will be an excellent opportunity"
I also believe the price will rise from 108 to 115
Currently, the short nominal position of $SPCX is about $23.6 billion, approximately 206 million shares, accounting for about 32.2% of the free float, surpassing Tesla's approximately $22 billion
The most certain logic for shorts right now is
A very small float, scarce shares, price being pushed up; once the lock-up expires, the stock supply will rapidly increase.
What valuations has the market currently assigned to these businesses?
1. Starlink: Subscription users, ARPU, enterprise/government customers, satellite and ground network expansion costs determine whether it is closer to a stable cash flow business or a continuously high capital expenditure business
2. Launch business: Whether launch frequency and commercial orders can translate into profit margins, not just technical capability
3. AI/compute narrative: If its AI or data center plans remain mainly a long-term vision, the market may lower the valuation multiples for a "technology platform company"
4. Starship's capital expenditure and commercialization timeline: This is the biggest long-term upside option and also the cost item most likely to cause controversy in short-term financial reports AMD is about to release its earnings report. The market has fully priced in the expected 47% year-over-year revenue growth to $11.3 billion for $AMD in Q2. The core issue lies in whether the AI revenue from the data center MI300 can exceed expectations to support risk appetite.
Based on the recent guidance pricing characteristics validated by PLTR, meeting earnings expectations alone cannot continue to drive valuation premiums. Market positioning is significantly more sensitive to subsequent AI chip revenue guidance than to overall revenue.
Event risk is quickly transmitted through shifts in capital preference. Long positions are highly concentrated; if MI300 commercialization falls short of expectations, the pressure to exit risk assets will spread from individual stocks to the entire AI sector.
The upside scenario triggers if data center GPU and MI300-related AI revenue significantly exceed the already raised expectations, and Q3 guidance maintains high growth. Variables to watch include the specific proportion of AI revenue within the total $11.3 billion revenue. A failure signal is data center growth lagging behind the 47% total revenue growth.
The downside scenario triggers if MI300 sales guidance barely meets targets, causing long positions that previously bet on outperformance to quickly stop out. Variables to watch include whether sector risk appetite tightens simultaneously toward other high-valuation targets. A failure signal is after-hours trading volume quickly absorbing sell orders and breaking through previous resistance levels.
The main logic fails if overall revenue falls below $11.3 billion but AI chip revenue alone surges. In this case, the market will shift from evaluating traditional data center business to purely reconstructing valuation based on AI commercialization.
In the next 24 hours, key observations include the detailed breakdown of data center GPU business in the earnings report at 5 AM Beijing time on August 5, and the net capital flow in positions after the earnings release.
#CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 #CLARITYAct72Hours
The clock is ticking on Congress's biggest crypto legislation of the year. The CLARITY Act — formally H.R. 3633, the bill that would split U.S. digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC — was conspicuously absent from Monday's Senate floor schedule, which listed only a procedural vote on an unrelated spending bill. That's significant because the Senate leaves for its August recess around August 10, and under normal Senate rules, a cloture motion filed Wednesday, August 5 could produce a vote as early as Friday, August 7 — but that vote would only decide whether to end debate and proceed to the bill, not pass it outright. And that procedural vote alone needs 60 votes to succeed, meaning Republicans have to line up genuine Democratic support just to keep the bill alive before recess.
The bill already has real momentum behind it — it passed the House 294-134 back in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026 — but talks have stalled over disputes involving government ethics rules and stablecoin rewards. The pressure campaign has intensified as the deadline nears: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly pushed the Senate to act, Grayscale has warned that delay threatens U.S. competitiveness in digital assets, and advocacy group Stand With Crypto says supporters have contacted lawmakers over a million times urging passage. Despite the noise, betting markets aren't optimistic — Polymarket's odds on CLARITY becoming law in 2026 have slid to the high-20s to low-30s percent range, down sharply from around 82% back in February, and Galaxy Research recently cut its own estimate from 50% to 30%. If the window closes without action, the bill's fate likely slides into September, right as the crypto industry looks toward the 2026 midterms for leverage. $BTC From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's phased approach fully revealed
The market once unanimously bet on the Fed continuing to cut rates, but now policy expectations have completely reversed. The rate cut narrative has quickly exited, rate hike discussions have returned to the forefront, and the Fed's full policy path is gradually becoming clear. The core of this expectation reversal lies in inflation resilience exceeding expectations, strong employment, combined with geopolitical factors pushing up energy prices, completely disrupting the previous easing timetable.
The current policy cycle can be clearly divided into four major stages: the rate cut expectation warming-up phase, the rate-hold observation period, hawkish statements reshaping expectations, and the game of restarting rate hikes. The biggest change is the Fed weakening fixed forward guidance, with decisions now fully dependent on real-time data. The past model of "giving signals in advance" no longer exists, and market volatility will remain elevated for the long term.
At this stage, bulls and bears are clearly divided: bulls bet on economic slowdown and continued inflation decline, with rate hikes only staying verbal; bears are wary of oil price-driven inflation rebounds forcing the Fed to restart tightening. In trading, it is crucial not to cling to the rate cut mindset from the first half of the year. U.S. Treasuries, growth stocks, and crypto assets will continue to be disturbed by rate expectations. Going forward, focus closely on CPI, PCE, and employment data. Once inflation rebounds again, rate hike expectations will quickly ferment, and the global liquidity environment will tighten again.
⚠️Risk warning: This is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 ⚡ $MMT (Momentum) — $0.158
$MMT is a typical case of a "story coin" collapse — plummeting from an opening high of $6 to around $0.16.
🛡️ Support levels: $0.1620 is a dense trading zone from three weeks ago. $0.1715 is a previous low. Further down, $0.0110 is where early buyers tried to defend.
🚧 Resistance levels: $0.1850 is the intraday bull-bear dividing line. Breaking through targets $0.1980.
🐳 On-chain whale activity: A 12% plunge in 15 minutes to $0.1756, with $74 million traded — bulls and bears fiercely contesting around $0.18. The order book's sell volume is 1.7 times the buy volume, indicating "bears controlling the market." The 24-hour correlation with BTC is 0.63, and with the Nasdaq 0.51 — showing it "fears more than anyone" during macro tightening. The $0.1718 low precisely hit the 200-day moving average, which has triggered rebounds of at least 20% on the last three touches. Market cap is about $35.65 million, a small-cap altcoin with very high whale control.
📈 Bullish factors: The 200-day moving average has historically provided support three times; if macro sentiment improves (e.g., rising expectations of rate cuts), it may follow BTC's technical rebound; having dropped over 97% from the $6 high to $0.16, the bubble has largely deflated.
📉 Bearish factors: A typical "story finished, funding dries up" scenario; harsh macro environment (US Dollar Index at 105.5, crypto market net outflow of $430 million); 78% probability of no Fed rate cut in June; extremely high risk for heavy positions, recommended to keep exposure under 5%. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% #财报观察员：AMD and SpaceX reports are imminent, Circle is the finale
Palantir's first report confirmed the "guidance sets the price" rule, rising 15%. There are three reports left, who can replicate this?
🔴 AMD (around 5:00 AM Beijing time on August 5)
Expected revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year. The key question is the quality of AI chips—whether MI300 can carve out a market share in data center GPUs. If it meets expectations but is not enough, AI revenue exceeding expectations is needed for a price increase.
(As long as the AI chip is released normally, AMD is guaranteed to rise)
🚀 SpaceX (around 4:30 AM Beijing time on August 5)
Stock price fell from 225 to 108, 20% below IPO price. Over $100 billion will be unlocked on August 6. To hold the price, they would need solid positive news like "moon landing this year"—but the probability is extremely low. The pressure is the highest certainty.
(According to market discussions, it will fall)
🟢 Circle (around 8:00 PM Beijing time on August 5, the finale)
Expected revenue of $714 million, tied to USDC scale and interest rates. USDC reserves have shrunk to 72.06 billion. Whether the volume shrinkage can be offset by high interest rates is key, and it is most likely to deliver a surprise.
(It depends on the hype, after all, most funds are currently in US stocks)
Who can replicate the 15% rise? AMD relies on AI exceeding expectations, SpaceX is almost impossible, Circle has the greatest possibility. The answer will be revealed tonight.
$AMD $SPCX $PLTR