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The post presents a recognizable investing narrative, but several claims should be treated as opinion rather than established market fact.
What the post gets right
IPO lock-up expirations can increase the number of shares available for trading, which may lead to higher volatility.
It's common for newly listed stocks to experience sharp declines after the initial excitement fades.
Strong earnings don't always lead to higher stock prices if investors are disappointed by guidance, margins, or heavy spending plans.
Where caution is warranted
There is no universal "post-IPO chart pattern." While many IPOs decline before recovering, many others never regain their highs, and some rally almost immediately.
A 900 million share unlock increases potential supply, but it does not mean all those shares will be sold. Many insiders continue holding their positions.
Saying "the real move happens 200–300 days later" is a historical observation for some stocks, not a reliable prediction for any individual company.
How to interpret the setup
For SPCX, the key questions after the lock-up are:
1. Does the stock absorb the additional share supply without breaking key support?
2. Is trading volume unusually high, suggesting institutional buying or selling?
3. Does management's AI infrastructure spending translate into stronger revenue and cash flow over the coming quarters?
4. Does the market view the investment as value-creating rather than margin-dilutive?
Bottom line
The sensible takeaway is the one the author mentions near the end: wait for the market's reaction instead of assuming the lock-up expiration will be either bullish or bearish. Price action, trading volume, and follow-through in the days after the unlock will provide stronger evidence than any historical template alone.
In short, a lock-up expiration is an important event, but it is not, by itself, a reliable signal that a bottom—or a new downtrend—is inevitable.What truly determines the short-term trend of $MU may no longer be "positive or negative news," but rather the market's repricing of expectations.
Last night, the market gave me a deep impression: the fundamentals remain strong, but the stock price is becoming increasingly difficult to rise.
The logic of the AI industry chain has not fundamentally changed. Tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon continue to expand AI capital expenditures, HBM and DRAM demand remain tight, and the recent market focus is still on the storage supply gap caused by AI computing power expansion. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's remarks on the rapid growth of storage demand in the AI era have once again reinforced the market's long-term optimism for high-end storage.
But why did MU still fall?
Because the market never trades facts, but the difference in expectations.
Looking at the chart:
From the 1-hour level:
* The stock price has fallen back to contest repeatedly around MA5, MA10, and MA20, with the short-term trend beginning to slow.
* The price oscillates repeatedly near the middle Bollinger Band, with the upper band resistance (around 930) failing to break through effectively multiple times.
* KDJ has entered a death cross, and the J value has dropped rapidly, indicating a clear weakening of short-term momentum.
* The price is still running above the previous rally platform, with no trend-breaking move, more like a reshuffling of chips after the rise.
This means:
It is not a confirmed trend reversal now, but both bulls and bears are starting to reprice.
I have always believed that many people tend to interpret every pullback as a deterioration of fundamentals.
In fact, this adjustment is more like:
Valuation digestion, not logic disappearance.
AI demand has not suddenly vanished.
HBM has not suddenly become oversupplied.
Global AI capital expenditure has not stopped.
What really changed is:
The market that used to be willing to give a 100-point expectation may now only be willing to give 90 points.
For stocks that have experienced a significant rise, a 10-point drop in expectations can lead to a 20% price pullback.
Additionally, the macro environment is worth attention.
Recently, the drop in oil prices has eased some inflation pressure, but the market is still continuously evaluating the Fed's future policy path. Capital is starting to focus more on whether valuations are already overstretched rather than simply chasing the AI story. Growth stocks at high valuation stages are more sensitive to any subtle changes in earnings realization, capital expenditure efficiency, or future growth expectations.
My view:
I will not deny the long-term AI logic because of a single bearish candle, nor will I blindly chase highs because of one piece of good news.
What truly deserves attention is:
In the coming days, whether this pullback is supported by capital.
If the volume gradually shrinks during the pullback and the lower platform holds steady, this looks more like healthy rotation;
If the volume expands and breaks below the platform, accompanied by continuous institutional fund outflows, the market may be starting to trade a longer-term valuation correction.
Trading is not about predicting the future but continuously validating your assumptions.
The market gives new answers every day. What we really need to do is not prove ourselves right but timely adjust our judgments when new evidence emerges.
Finally, a question:
Do you think MU is currently digesting overly high expectations, or has the AI storage rally already entered a phase top? Why? 8/6 $ETH trend is complex, let's do a full review to find some ideas.
From 7/27 to now, the trend is analyzed as shown in the chart. The thought process should be clearly marked and is executed according to this framework. Until 8/2–8/3, a rare reverse liquidity operation was executed personally, and the estimated trend drawn on 8/2-8/3 in the chart is also polarized.
My style is contrarian trading, taking reverse positions at the liquidity points marked in the chart. Only on August 2nd, when ETH spiked to the upper edge, I chose to short.
The reason is this referenced post: BTC showed two opposite daily trend results in UTC+8 and UTC time zones. If viewed by UTC+8 timezone, the target is around 61,000. At that time, BTC quickly dropped, slightly exceeding the corresponding area, instantly judging it might be following the UTC+8 result, targeting around 61,500, which corresponds to ETH directly breaking through the yellow liquidity zone. Such a counterattack usually brings a huge drop, so I decisively shorted at the 1833 floor price.
But it didn’t drop further, reduced position at 1866, then dropped to 1827 but didn’t continue, stop loss set at 1866. At that time, I judged it was unlikely to follow the UTC+8 result anymore.
Yesterday looking at URPD, found that near 63k the chip turnover exploded, with a single price accumulating a historically rare 1.15 million BTC. So, if a trade based on expected liquidity drop fails, strict stop loss must be enforced, no trading based on imagination. This trade was a bit imaginative—because the chance to break through is very rare, otherwise liquidity wouldn’t be effective.
Currently, the liquidity on the chart, except for the red area on 8/3 which is newly generated in this rise, the others are past liquidity and may be retested. The reason for not opening a position now is simple: there is not enough data to calculate a new range, too many traps.
Other reasons can be referred to in the recent ETH and $BTC posts, pure chit-chat welcome for exchange.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 In a bear market, the best at painting rosy pictures aren't the KOLs shouting trade calls in groups, but the folks in Washington writing bills.
This week the regulatory drama was quite intense: Lummis is still pushing the CLARITY Act to get a vote before the August recess, Warren jumped out to investigate AI chips and crypto investments, and the most extreme case is a crypto PAC in Michigan spending $2 million on elections, yet the incumbent still lost the primary.
But how does the market respond to all these "major positive news"? BTC at 64,638, volume cut by 51.3%, open interest frozen at 107,400 like a block of iron, FG stuck at 27 in Fear — the incremental trading volume brought by all these policy headlines is zero.
Simply put, policy news in a bear market is just an emotional placebo, not liquidity. It can't change the fact that there's no money on-chain, just like my trade calls can't move the market; so let's not blame each other.
I've set myself a "three-filter policy noise" rule: ① Check if on-chain liquidity (OI/volume) truly follows; if not, it's just hot air. ② See if it's the usual pre-recess old script (CLARITY proposed every year, wolf cry). ③ Look for solid evidence of money politics — Michigan's $2 million couldn't save a single legislator, so your little essay won't move the market either. If none of these are met, treat it as noise.
In a bear market, don't use "XX bill will benefit the crypto space" as a bottom-fishing reason; it gives you hope but not money. Self-mock: I used to believe CLARITY could bring some momentum, but now it just looks like political cosplay.
Brothers, how many "policy positives" tricked you into bottom-fishing this week? Report in the comments. Tomorrow I'll watch if volume can turn positive; if there's movement, we'll talk again.
Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion.
$BTC #RegulatoryNoise #PolicyPlacebo #CLARITYAct #RiskControlStrategy #BeginnerGuide #MarketAnalysis #OKXPlanet This update highlights how quickly institutional participation in Ethereum staking is evolving.
Key figures
ETH holdings: 5,797,813 ETH
Share of stated ETH supply: ~4.8% (based on a stated supply of 120.7 million ETH)
ETH staked: 4,917,189 ETH
Staking ratio: 84.8% of its holdings
Estimated staking yield: 2.67% annualized (7-day annualized rate)
Estimated annual staking income:
~$247 million at the current staking level.
~$291 million if all ETH holdings are staked.
Why this matters
Positive implications
A treasury of this size signals growing institutional confidence in Ethereum.
Staking converts a passive asset into a yield-generating one, creating a recurring revenue stream.
If more institutions adopt similar strategies, demand for ETH could strengthen over time.
Potential concerns
Large concentrations of ETH and validator operations can increase concerns about validator concentration and network decentralization.
The quoted 2.67% is an annualized estimate based on recent conditions. Actual staking rewards fluctuate with network activity and participation.
Running both staking infrastructure and institutional services (such as MAVAN) could diversify revenue, but it also increases operational and regulatory complexity.
Bottom line
If these figures are accurate, BitMine has become one of the most influential institutional participants in Ethereum staking. The development is broadly supportive of Ethereum's institutional adoption narrative, but it also reinforces an ongoing debate within the Ethereum community: how to balance growing institutional participation with maintaining a decentralized validator set.
As always, it's worth verifying the company's filings and announcements before making investment decisions, as staking yields, ETH holdings, and deployment strategies can change over time. DYOR (Do Your Own Research).The market hit a new high, and Eli Lilly — $LLY also rose. Last night, the US stock market was indeed strong.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed above 7700 points for the first time in history. The Dow also broke 54,000, rising more than 900 points, and the Nasdaq rose 2.59%.
This wave of gains basically boils down to two things: oil prices fell, and earnings reports improved.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a pre-market interview that the US and Iran might soon reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to drop more than 5% that day, with Brent crude returning to around $79. When oil prices fall, inflation expectations cool down, US Treasury yields also decline, and the stock market pressure eases significantly.
Another main factor is earnings reports. The S&P 500’s earnings growth this quarter, excluding one-time factors from Google and Amazon, is about 27%, which is 4 percentage points higher than the expectations before earnings season started. After Palantir’s earnings report, its stock rose nearly 30%, and Caterpillar’s quarterly revenue exceeded $20 billion for the first time, all of which gave the market a strong boost.
Eli Lilly also delivered, and in a particularly impressive way. Q2 revenue was $22.97 billion, up 48% year-over-year, about $2 billion higher than market expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $8.38, while the expectation was only $6.31. Mounjaro sold about $10 billion, Zepbound sold $4.9 billion, and just these two weight-loss drugs generated nearly $15 billion. The full-year revenue guidance was also raised from $82-85 billion to $85-87 billion. After the earnings release, Eli Lilly’s stock rose more than 6% pre-market, showing the market’s recognition of these numbers.
The current situation is: geopolitical risks have temporarily calmed down, oil prices have fallen back, earnings season is performing well, and these three factors combined have pushed the market to new highs. But ultimately, whether this rally can continue depends on whether the US and Iran can reach a deal and whether upcoming earnings reports can continue to impress.
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高
——$LLY $SNDK Conclusion: The fundamentals of SNDK have not deteriorated, but the stock price has shifted from "performance acceleration trading" to "verifying whether high profits can be sustained." The short-term trend is still downward, and the bottom has not yet been confirmed; the mid-term valuation is starting to become attractive, but it is not advisable to directly take Wall Street's $2,500 target as a reasonable value.
As of the morning of August 6 Beijing time:
Regular close on August 5 was about $1,350.5, with after-hours lows near $1,242.
Compared to the historical high of $2,354.39 in June, the after-hours pullback is about 47%. Price history, after-hours market
Why is the stock price still falling despite strong performance?
Item Actual/Guidance Market Interpretation
Q4 Revenue $8.965 billion, +51% QoQ Clearly exceeded expectations
Adjusted EPS $39.25 Higher than the approximately $34.96 expected
Gross Margin 84.6% Extremely strong but close to cycle peak
Q1 FY27 Revenue Guidance $10.3–10.8 billion Midpoint $10.55 billion, slightly below market expectation of about $10.8 billion
Q1 EPS Guidance $44–46 Basically in line with expectations, no further significant beat
Consumer Business -32% QoQ Price increases starting to suppress end demand
More importantly, about two-thirds of Q4 revenue growth QoQ came from price increases, and one-third from volume. The market's concern is not the current profit but how long the 84% gross margin can be maintained. Sandisk official Q4 report
Bullish logic remains strong
The company has signed 10 new commercial model agreements with 8 customers; management states minimum expected revenue of about $93.9 billion, including remaining performance obligations of about $91.1 billion from post-quarter agreements, and $16.5 billion in financial guarantees.
These agreements cover over 50% of FY2027 shipments and about two-thirds of FY2028 shipments, with an average term exceeding 4 years; management indicates NBM agreement gross margins are expected to be around 80%. Note these are still management guidance and do not mean profits are fully locked in. Q4 conference call transcript
Q4 adjusted free cash flow was about $5.035 billion; the company repurchased about $4.5 billion in stock during the quarter and increased the remaining buyback authorization to $15.5 billion, equivalent to about 8% of the current after-hours market cap. Company 8-K
Industry perspective: TrendForce expects a 4%–5% NAND supply deficit in 2026, with contract prices in Q3 2026 expected to rise 10%–15% QoQ. TrendForce price outlook
What the bears are really betting on
TrendForce expects supply growth to exceed demand in 2027, with supply tightness possibly easing from the second half of 2027. 2027 supply-demand forecast
Demand destruction has already appeared on the consumer side, with pressure on mobile phone and PC orders.
Long-term contracts can lock in volume, but long-term prices still contain floating parts, so the 84% gross margin is not permanently locked.
Current profits are likely at a cycle peak, so even if the FY2027 expected P/E is only about 6x, it should not be simply interpreted as "extremely cheap."
Technical structure
Price Range Meaning
$1,180–1,220 First support after earnings, likely tested short-term
Around $1,120 Rebound starting point in late July/early August
$998–1,050 Most important bottom area this round
$1,340–1,450 First resistance; reclaiming $1,450 would mark a stop to the decline
$1,515–1,610 Previous dense trading and trapped area
$1,680–1,730 Mid-term trend recovery confirmation level
Above $1,950 Re-entering strong upward structure
Currently, the stock price is below the 20-day moving average of about $1,458 and the 50-day moving average of about $1,700; after-hours it fell below the 100-day moving average of about $1,350; the 14-day average true range is close to 14%, indicating this is not suitable for high-leverage trading.
Future probability forecast
Time Up Sideways Down Main Range
Next 1–2 weeks 20% 35% 45% $1,120–1,450
Next 1–3 months 35% 40% 25% $1,000–1,700
Next 6–12 months 40% 35% 25% Base $1,300–1,750
Valuation scenarios for the next 6–12 months:
Scenario Probability FY27 Adjusted EPS Assumption Valuation Price Range
Bear 25% $150–175 5.5–6x $825–1,050
Base 55% $190–220 7–8x $1,330–1,760
Bull 20% $230–270 8.5–9.5x $1,950–2,560
Probability-weighted midpoint is about $1,530. Wall Street's previous average target was about $2,381, median target $2,500, but these data were mostly formed before this earnings report, and the lowest target is only $1,000, showing large divergence, so it is not suitable as a baseline forecast. Analyst expectations
My judgment: The short term will most likely test $1,180–1,220 again, possibly even $1,120; around $1,000 is a stronger mid-term safety cushion. Only by stabilizing above $1,450 can it be considered that the post-earnings decline has ended.
August 13 Investor Day is the next key node. If the company can further prove the sustainability of about 80% gross margin in NBM agreements and clarify FY2027–2028 earnings and buyback pace, the stock price may quickly return to $1,500–1,700; if it only repeats the long-term narrative without new figures, there is still risk of falling to $1,000–1,120. Company Investor Day schedule
Note: The above is a scenario study based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. SNDK volatility is extremely high; forecast ranges should be updated timely with subsequent guidance.In the past 24 hours, total contract liquidations across the network exceeded $210 million, with short positions accounting for 142 million, and long positions less than 70 million—short losses nearly double those of long positions. This one-sided liquidation structure indicates that the accumulated short positions in the market have been collectively cleared, with prices rising through passive buying, $BTC short-term above $64,700, a 24-hour gain of 1.07%. The feeling of being hollowed out is strong, and the emotional side is indeed quite strong. But a bucket of cold water is needed; a rise driven by liquidation does not mean that spot funds are flowing back with real money. When the bears are mostly cleared out, the upward momentum provided by derivatives weakens. Next, it depends on spot trading volume, ETF funds, and institutional buying to take over. If it fails to connect, $BTC is likely to rally and then fall back into consolidation. The most critical range right now is still $64,000 to $65,000. Once volume increases and it holds above 65,000, short-term challenges between 67,000 and 68,000 are highly probable; if the breakout fails and it falls back below 63,000, then first look for support at 62,000 USD, and in extreme cases, even pull back to 60,000. My view is that the short-term trend shifts from bearish to bullish, but this wave looks more like a strong short squeeze, not a confirmed new bull market. What truly determines the future height is whether genuine buying is willing to take over after the liquidation ends. $BTC Whether you can climb the steps depends on this turning point. $BTC #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报超预期 growth has been overdrawn? Breaking News! Analysis of ADP (the small nonfarm payroll)! Regarding the ADP (small nonfarm payroll) employment report released on August 5, 2026 (yesterday) and its profound impact on the global market, the analysis is as follows:
1. Core Data of the Report and Market Logic Analysis
The July ADP employment data released yesterday was regarded by the market as a milestone signal of a "rapid cooling labor market."
1. Data severely missed expectations: The U.S. private sector added only 44,000 jobs in July, far below the market consensus of 75,000 (some institutions even expected 68,000), and a cliff-like drop from June's 95,000.
2. "Low hiring" characteristics highlighted: Although the service sector contributed 47,000 jobs, manufacturing and mining combined lost 3,000 positions. Chief Economist Nela Richardson pointed out that "hiring patterns are undergoing structural changes."
3. The "trap" of wage growth: Despite weak employment, wage growth for job switchers rebounded counter-trend to 7%, hitting a near one-year high. This sends a mixed signal to the Federal Reserve: labor demand is slowing, but wage pressure in structural positions (such as AI and healthcare) will still push up service inflation.
4. Immediate market reaction:
* Rate cut expectations soared: The swap market's bets on a September rate cut heated up instantly, seen as a green light for the Fed's monetary policy shift from "restrictive" to "supportive."
* Safe-haven assets surged: Gold prices broke through the historic high of $4286/oz.
* Risk asset dynamics: The Nasdaq fluctuated amid rate cut logic and recession concerns, while cryptocurrencies showed strong "anti-inflation/rate cut benefit" characteristics.
2. 20 Tokens Deeply Influenced by Macro/U.S. Stock Logic
These tokens have high correlation with the U.S. tech sector (especially AI, cloud storage, fintech) in quantitative models and are heavily influenced by the macro interest rate environment:
1. AI Computing Power and Infrastructure (Logic benchmark: NVDA, AMD, SMCI)
*$FET(ASI Alliance): Merged by the three AI giants, it is the flagship of Web3 AI, directly reflecting the U.S. AI hardware boom.
*$TAO(Bittensor): A decentralized model collaboration network, regarded as the "OpenAI ecosystem" of crypto.
*$RNDR(Render): Leading distributed GPU computing, highly synchronized with Apple and Nvidia's rendering logic.
*$AKT(Akash): Decentralized GPU leasing, a Web3 competitor benchmarked against U.S. cloud computing (AWS/Azure).
*$NEAR(Near Protocol): High-performance public chain transitioning to full-stack AI, with founders recognized by Silicon Valley.
2. RWA Real Assets and Fintech (Logic benchmark: BLK, GS, COIN)
*$ONDO(Ondo Finance): Tokenized U.S. Treasury leader, benefiting directly from the interest rate decline triggered by the ADP report.
*$LINK(Chainlink): Cross-chain interoperability protocol, a technical hub for institutions like SWIFT and BlackRock.
*$MKR(Sky/Maker): Stablecoin protocol backed by U.S. Treasuries, profitability negatively correlated with interest rate environment.
*$AAVE(Aave): The world's largest lending protocol, with rate cut expectations from ADP releasing on-chain liquidity.
*$PYTH(Pyth Network): High-frequency financial data oracle, directly reflecting Wall Street institutional trading activity.
3. Storage and Data Indexing (Logic benchmark: WDC, SNOW, PLTR)
*$FIL(Filecoin): Decentralized storage cornerstone, corresponding to U.S. data center storage logic.
*$AR(Arweave): Focused on permanent storage, its AO protocol upgrade gives it attributes similar to a distributed supercomputer.
*$GRT(The Graph): The Google of Web3, core logic for on-chain big data analysis and indexing.
*$SC(Siacoin): Low-cost distributed cloud storage solution, benchmarked against traditional cloud providers' cost reduction and efficiency needs.
4. DePIN Physical Infrastructure (Logic benchmark: TSLA, TMUS)
*$HNT(Helium): Decentralized wireless network, a long-term valuation benchmark in the DePIN sector.
*$IOTX(IoTeX): Connecting physical world sensors with blockchain, corresponding to U.S. "Industry 4.0" and IoT logic.
*$THETA(Theta Network): Decentralized video edge computing, corresponding to streaming giants' infrastructure outsourcing needs.
5. High Beta Systemic Tokens (Logic benchmark: QQQ, SPY)
*$SOL(Solana): Currently the most liquid "technology public chain," its volatility has a long-term positive correlation over 0.75 with the Nasdaq index.
*$SUI(Sui): Viewed by institutions as a strong Ethereum competitor in the "Move language family," with clear capital inflow paths.
*$APT(Aptos): Developed by the original Meta (Facebook) team, possessing a strong "tech giant bloodline" premium from U.S. stocks.
Recommendation:
Current ADP data shows the labor market has reached a critical point sliding from a "soft landing" toward the "edge of recession." It is recommended to focus on tomorrow's (August 7) nonfarm payroll report (NFP). If the nonfarm data also weakens, $BTC is expected to challenge the $72,000 level, and the above AI and RWA sector tokens will lead valuation recovery. $BTC $ETH $MSTR The reported development is potentially significant, but it should still be viewed as a step in negotiations rather than a completed agreement. Recent reporting indicates that Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a draft framework for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with final approval and implementation still subject to political decisions and unresolved conditions.
If such an agreement moves forward, the market implications could unfold along this chain:
Lower geopolitical risk → reduced supply disruption fears.
Potential easing in oil prices if traders remove part of the geopolitical risk premium.
Lower inflation expectations, assuming energy prices remain contained.
Improved backdrop for risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies, if investors also expect less pressure for tighter monetary policy.
However, there are important caveats:
This is a macro tailwind, not a guaranteed catalyst. Crypto prices are also driven by factors such as ETF flows, on-chain activity, leverage, and investor sentiment.
Even if oil falls, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may not rally immediately. Markets often price in news before it becomes official, or other factors can dominate price action.
The negotiations remain conditional, so the positive macro scenario depends on the agreement being approved and successfully implemented.
Overall, your conclusion is balanced: if the Hormuz agreement is finalized, it could improve the macro environment by reducing geopolitical and inflation concerns. But whether BTC or other crypto assets benefit will still depend on their own market dynamics and whether buyers step in to confirm the move. Watching price confirmation rather than assuming a rally remains a prudent approach.The massive inflow into Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs is a strong signal of short-term confidence recovery, mainly a direct effect of the "US-Iran situation easing" as a strong booster.
US-Iran situation: the biggest short-term "sentiment catalyst." The core driving force behind this rally is the cooling of geopolitical risks.
· Ceasefire and negotiations: US President Trump announced the cancellation of military strikes against Iran, and both sides agreed to negotiate. This directly relieved global markets.
· Chain reaction: Once the news broke, international oil prices plummeted, US stocks and gold rebounded, and Bitcoin also broke through $63,000 accordingly. Among various risk assets, cryptocurrencies are the most sensitive to such news, so the ETH ETF immediately saw large subscriptions.
In contrast, although the CLARITY Act is important, it currently feels more like an "unresolved" long-term story rather than a reason to buy now.
Ethereum ETFs reacted more strongly, related to prior capital flows. In the past 7 days, ETH net inflow totaled less than $10 million, with relatively light institutional positions. Therefore, once macro sentiment reverses, the rebound strength naturally surpasses BTC. From this perspective, this rally is more about sentiment repair and short covering.
· Qualitative assessment: This huge inflow is mainly thanks to the short-term risk appetite recovery brought by US-Iran negotiations. The Act’s benefits in this rally are more "icing on the cake" rather than "a timely help."
· Key outlook: What needs attention is: 1) the actual progress of US-Iran negotiations (if it breaks down again, sentiment will quickly reverse); 2) the sustainability of ETF inflows. If next week’s data turns back to outflows, it indicates institutions are still waiting to see the Act’s real implementation.
Intraday is likely to oscillate at a high level between 1,900 and 1,927. Use sideways consolidation to digest profits, wait for moving averages to catch up, then combine with news developments to push liquidity upward again, possibly retesting the previous high near 1980.
Trading advice: Wait for a pullback to 1,895–1,900 without breaking before entering, stop loss at 1,880, target 1,927–1,950. The current position at 1,910 is awkward, with limited upside and considerable downside pullback space. In a bear market, take profits when you see them, don’t be stubborn, and set stop losses properly. (Trading advice is personal opinion only, for reference, profit and loss at your own risk) $ETH The analogy is thought-provoking, but it blends a market observation with a broader investment thesis.
Here's the key idea:
Narrative shifts can redirect capital. When investors believe a new technology or business model can capture market share, money often flows toward the perceived disruptor and away from incumbents.
Telecom example: If investors believe SpaceX's satellite-based communications could compete with traditional mobile networks, stocks like Verizon and AT&T may come under pressure because the market starts pricing in greater future competition.
Crypto parallel: Similar rotations occur between sectors. Capital has shifted over time from Layer 1s to DeFi, NFTs, AI tokens, Real World Assets (RWAs), DePIN, or memecoins as market attention changes.
However, there are two important caveats:
1. A new narrative doesn't guarantee disruption. Many highly anticipated technologies take years to generate meaningful revenue or market share, and some never do.
2. Incumbents don't always lose. Established companies often respond through partnerships, acquisitions, or new products, allowing them to remain competitive.
The broader investment lesson is valuable: rather than focusing solely on predicting tomorrow's price, ask:
Is this project or company gaining real users?
Is revenue or on-chain activity growing?
Does it have a sustainable competitive advantage?
Is the current valuation justified by its long-term potential?
Markets tend to reward businesses and crypto projects that can create durable value, not just attract temporary attention. Narratives can drive prices in the short term, but execution ultimately determines who becomes a long-term winner.This comparison highlights an important point about the storage industry: investors are increasingly rewarding pricing power and future profitability, not just strong quarterly results.
Here's what the numbers suggest:
SanDisk (SNDK)
Q2 revenue: $8.96B, beating expectations of $8.39B.
Next-quarter guidance: $10.3B–10.8B, with the high end only matching the consensus expectation of $10.8B.
Market reaction: Shares fell more than 3% after hours as investors focused on cautious forward guidance rather than the earnings beat.
Western Digital (WDC)
Issued stronger forward guidance, projecting approximately 42%–49% year-over-year growth.
Investors interpreted this as a sign of stronger demand and better pricing momentum, leading to a more positive market response.
What it means
The storage sector is no longer moving as one group. Instead, companies are being judged on:
Pricing power.
Margin expansion.
Ability to capitalize on AI-driven storage demand.
Confidence in future earnings rather than past performance.
This reflects a broader market trend seen across technology: forward guidance often has a greater impact on stock prices than headline earnings beats.
For crypto investors, the analogy is similar. Just as the market is distinguishing between stronger and weaker storage companies, digital asset capital is also becoming more selective. Assets with sustained adoption, strong ecosystems, and growing fundamentals are attracting a larger share of liquidity than projects relying mainly on market sentiment.
The key takeaway is that strong headline numbers alone are no longer enough. In both equities and crypto, markets are increasingly rewarding assets and companies that demonstrate durable growth and the ability to maintain pricing or competitive strength.[Firefly Trading | BTC Market]
ADP employment data was unexpectedly weak, gold surged, but BTC did not follow, hovering around 64000 with sideways fluctuations, with incremental funds mainly on the sidelines.
The market focus is on the non-farm payrolls tonight.
Weak non-farm data favors liquidity easing and is positive for crypto; strong non-farm data will put pressure on risk assets.
Support range at 63200, resistance at 66000.
Data-driven market volatility is huge, crypto market risk is high, manage risk well and wait patiently for the data release. $BTC #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #创作者激励 Western Digital delivered a comprehensive earnings report that exceeded expectations, but the market responded coldly with a post-hours drop of -10.67%. Data level: Overall exceeded expectations. Revenue was $3.75 billion, higher than the expected $3.692 billion, compared to just $2.605 billion in the same period last year. Net profit was $3.195 billion, compared to just $282 million in the same period last year. EPS was $3.56, above the expected $3.31. Q1 guidance: Revenue $4.0-4.2 billion (median $4.1 billion) vs. expected $4.04 billion; EPS $3.85-$4.15 vs. $3.77 expected Why can't it rise? First, the market has already priced in the "AI storage supercycle." Western Digital's stock price has surged significantly over the past year, and quarterly earnings beating expectations alone are no longer sufficient conditions to drive the stock price higher. Second, although the guidance exceeded expectations in terms of data, the extent was limited—revenue was 4.1 billion vs 4.04 billion, about 1.5% better, and EPS 3.85-4.15 vs. 3.77, about 4-10% better. For an AI storage stock that has already priced in extremely high growth expectations, what the market needs to see is a "crushing" performance beyond expectations. Third, overall sentiment in the storage sector is shifting subtly: SanDisk's earnings guidance also fell short of expectations, Western Digital plunged after hours, and although SK Hynix received intensive bullish buying on Wall Street, its stock price remains well below its June high. The logic of AI storage supply and demand remains unchanged, but the market's interest in "AI storage stocks" remains unchangedAugust International Economic Outlook: Slowing Growth, Energy Disruptions, AI Holding Strong
The biggest keywords in the global economy recently remain "divergence" and "disruption."
According to the IMF's July update of the World Economic Outlook, global growth forecasts for 2026 have been slightly downgraded to 3.0%, with a rebound to 3.4% expected in 2027. The core reasons for the downgrade are clear: energy supply chain shocks caused by the Middle East conflict and risks of trade fragmentation. Global inflation has also been revised upward to 4.7%, with energy and food prices remaining the main drivers.
Significant differences in performance among major economies:
• United States: Relatively the most resilient, growth forecasts remain around 2.0%-2.3%. AI-related investments and energy exports are important supports. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July, but hawkish voices have increased internally, and the market is beginning to reprice the possibility of further rate hikes within the year. Meanwhile, the US stock market has repeatedly hit record highs, with capital still enthusiastic about the AI narrative.
• China: Growth forecasts are in the 4.6%-4.7% range, with exports and high-tech industries still the main driving forces, while domestic demand remains relatively subdued.
• Eurozone: Under greater pressure, growth forecasts are only about 0.9%, with energy dependence and weak manufacturing clearly dragging down performance.
Oil prices have recently fluctuated between $75-$80 per barrel. Any disturbance in expectations for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz causes sharp price swings. The market is highly sensitive to whether a ceasefire can hold and whether shipping lanes can truly reopen.
Three key points to watch currently:
1. Whether geopolitical tensions will escalate again (especially regarding energy routes)
2. The Federal Reserve's actual response to inflation going forward
3. Whether AI investment can continue to hedge against macroeconomic headwinds
Overall, the global economy has not fallen into recession, but slowing growth, narrowing policy space, and rising uncertainty are the main themes. Risk assets (including crypto) remain highly dependent on macro liquidity and shifts in sentiment.
What do you think we should worry about more going forward: oil prices or the Federal Reserve's stance? [Firefly Trading｜SpaceX]
Revenue surged 92%, financial report data improved, yet the stock price plummeted.
Root cause: AI computing power capital expenditures far exceeded expectations, combined with a massive unlocking of restricted shares approaching, institutions cashed out early. Starlink is responsible for generating cash flow, Starship and AI are responsible for future prospects, but the cash burn cycle is extended.
Short-term unlocking selling pressure remains, with high volatility;
Mid-to-long term outlook depends on Starship technology and computing power business realization.
The story is grand, but one must respect the reality of chip supply.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 SNDK SanDisk Plunged Last Night
Key Event: Earnings "Good News Fully Priced In" Style Plunge
SanDisk announced FY2026 Q4 earnings after market close on 8/5:
Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% YoY, beating market expectations; Non-GAAP EPS was $39.25 (expected $34.37); gross margin was 84.6% (expected 81.5%) — all hitting single-quarter highs.
However, FY2027 Q1 guidance midpoint revenue of $10.55 billion was below analysts' expectation of $11.16 billion, and EPS guidance of $45 was also slightly below expectations.
Also announced an additional $14 billion buyback (remaining authorization increased to $15.5 billion).
Real-time Trend Assessment
Daily: Since the June high of 2354.39, the maximum drawdown exceeded 46%; after a surge to 1446 on 8/4, a bearish candle pushed it down to 1345, with further decline after hours on 8/5. The daily chart clearly shows a downtrend channel, bearish alignment, no signs of bottoming yet.
4H/1H: MACD bearish crossover downward, expanding green bars, price broke below MA7/MA25, 50-day moving average around 1712 remains far above; 1258 is near the lower Bollinger Band, consolidating weakly.
Fundamentals: FY2026 full-year revenue was $20.25 billion (+175% YoY), data center revenue up 1298% YoY, AI NAND logic still intact; but "guidance below expectations + already risen too much this year" triggered profit-taking. This is a "good news fully priced in" pullback typical of high-level cyclical stocks, not a logic falsification.
Technical Levels (shared by stock and contracts, not a recommendation)
Resistance: 1315–1350 (overnight rebound high + 8/5 close area, first repair resistance) → 1400–1447 (previous highs / dense lock-in area, likely to face pressure again if retraced here) → 1712 (50-day MA, mid-term bull-bear dividing line)
Bull-Bear Watershed: 1258–1265 (your quoted close range / overnight trading center; holding = temporary pause and bottom search, breaking = acceleration down to 1200)
Support: 1200 (round number + contract 24h low above 1167 psychological level) → 1167–1175 (contract 24h low zone) → 1000–1040 (52-week low 40.10, key long-term uptrend retracement / extreme pullback)
Rhythm Judgment (not a recommendation)
Current 1258: stuck at the low overnight selling center, earnings downside partially priced in but no bottoming signal yet; 1258–1265 is a bull-bear battleground.
Hold 1200 + stock open not below 1200 → weak rebound in 1315–1350 range; only above 1350 can sentiment recovery be discussed.
Close below 1200 / contract below 1167 → opens deep pullback space to 1000–1040.
Today's Variable: Stock opens at 21:30 (UTC+8) will converge to 1258–1315 range, pre-market futures/overnight already priced about -10%, 1258 is a relatively reasonable on-chain price, but liquidity remains thin with large spikes, high leverage is extremely risky amid earnings aftershocks + low liquidity.Complete Logic Behind Popular Coins in the Crypto Circle (Market Analysis for August 2026)
Current Market Core Tone: $BTC stands above 64000 with no volume, but no incremental funds entering; this is a reallocation of existing funds, moving from one place to another. Capital is concentrated in AI computing power and $RWA US Treasury bonds as the two main themes; public chains are oscillating and lackluster, the veteran $MEME continues to bleed, and event-driven tokens fluctuate sharply with earnings reports and news. Thirty popular coins are layered by sector, with completely disconnected upward logics for each category.
I. Market Stabilizing Cornerstones (6 coins: market sentiment base, institutional allocation mainline)
1. $BTC Bitcoin
Core logic: Digital gold scarcity consensus + continuous capital inflow from spot ETFs, underpinned by the four-year halving deflation cycle, serving as the liquidity anchor for the entire market. This round has seen six attempts to break 64000; standing firm without volume only supports the index, as funds divert from BTC to hot altcoins, lacking sustained upward momentum; as long as BTC does not fall sharply, market speculative sentiment can survive.
2. $ETH Ethereum
Core logic: Global DeFi, RWA, Layer2 foundational infrastructure, staking lock-up + EIP1559 burn create natural deflation; tokenization of US Treasuries and LSDFi all rely on the ETH ecosystem. Currently weakly following the market, funds are withdrawing to high-elasticity AI/RWA tokens, making it a defensive asset that "rises slightly when the market is stable, resists decline when the market falls."
3. $BNB Binance Coin
Core logic: Exchange ecosystem closed loop support, with triple demand from fee discounts, Launchpad new token subscriptions, and quarterly buyback burns; the on-chain BSC ecosystem continuously generates traffic, strong safe-haven attributes in bear markets, preferred allocation when funds avoid chasing high altcoins.
4. $SOL Solana
Core logic: High TPS and low fees, gathering three hotspots: MEME, AI Agent, and DePIN; Firedancer validator upgrade solves past downtime issues, institutions gradually deploying SOL spot ETFs. Market pattern: small-cap Meme coins start first when the market warms, driving overall SOL sentiment higher.
5. $XRP Ripple
Core logic: Cross-border payment compliance narrative, repeated litigation battles with the SEC, each regulatory positive triggers pulse rallies; expectations for traditional cross-border bank cooperation landing, an event-driven mainstream coin with weak trend but many swing opportunities.
6. $TRX TRON
Core logic: Stablecoin transfer essential carrier, most USDT on-chain transfers run on TRX; RWA government bonds and offshore capital cross-border flow demand support, funds prefer TRX’s low-fee transfer scenario during risk aversion.
II. Layer1/L2 Public Chain Tiers (6 coins: infrastructure growth expectations, oscillating swing market)
7. $ARB: Ethereum L2 leader, ongoing ecosystem subsidies, only risk is large unlock sell pressure; logic is ETH scaling is a long-term necessity, funds accumulate on dips, hard to surge, limited downside.
8. $SUI: Move-based new public chain, parallel processing architecture suited for AI micropayments and high-frequency trading; heavy capital bets, ecosystem still early stage, betting on future incremental expectations.
9. $OP: Optimism L2, ecosystem subsidy plans continuously implemented, on-chain transaction volume steadily rising, moves in tandem with ETH, no independent market.
10. $TON: Telegram native public chain, with a billion-level social user increment, stable GameFi and payment scenarios, heavy long-term capital accumulation.
11. $SEI: Trading-dedicated public chain, DEX low slippage advantage, rising on-chain demand for contracts and spot trading, better elasticity in oscillating markets than veteran public chains.
12. $NEAR: Sharding expansion + AI data narrative dual support, aiming for product landing to attract AI developers, an AI branch supporting public chain.
III. RWA/LSDFi Financial Mainline (6 coins: institutional core holdings, strongest and most stable track in 2026)
13. $LDO: Absolute leader in ETH liquid staking, over 30% of total network staking share, ETH staking wave continuously brings stable cash flow, top institutional long-term allocation.
14. $ONDO: RWA track leader, core US Treasury tokenization asset, OUSG US Treasury wealth management yields 4.5% annualized, on-chain RWA total market cap surpasses $34 billion, traditional asset management funds continuously entering.
15. $MKR: MakerDAO, issuer of DAI stablecoin, large US Treasury reserves as backing assets, foundational RWA base, stable market with low volatility.
16. $PENDLE: Leader in interest rate derivatives, RWA US Treasury yield rights trading vehicle, current hotspot for capital concentration, US Treasury yield fluctuations directly drive the market.
17. $ENA: Newcomer in US Treasury RWA, fast expansion of compliant channels, strong short-term capital attraction, betting on subsequent traditional institutional cooperation landing.
18. $LINK: Oracle essential, foundational infrastructure for all public chains and RWA projects, industry sentiment recovery will
1. Fixed market transmission sequence: $BTC stabilizes market sentiment → $ETH, $BNB and other majors stabilize → AI/RWA mainline leads gains and capital inflow → public chains rotate slightly → $MEME meme coins pulse speculation; once mainline funds flee, all altcoins weaken collectively.
2. Stock game is the current core: $BTC stands above 64000 but volume shrinks, no off-market incremental funds, on-market funds continuously withdraw from weak coins, clustering in a few mainline tokens, causing an index that looks good but most accounts lose money.
3. Narrative determines the sustainability of rises and falls: AI computing power and RWA have real industry and institutional backing, resulting in longer market cycles; $MEME and niche low-quality coins rely only on sentiment speculation, quickly falling after pulses.
4. Event catalysts amplify volatility: $SNDK and $SPCX earnings reports are imminent, subsequent data quality will directly drive overall AI sector volatility; macro $PCE and Federal Reserve rate decisions will affect $BTC market, indirectly influencing overall market capital preference.
5. Clear risk layering: leading $BTC/$ETH have high fault tolerance; $AI/$RWA mainline has fundamental support; public chains oscillate and are lackluster;
6. $MEME meme coins have no bottom support, high risk of spikes and zeroing out, strictly prohibit heavy positions and high leverage speculation. SanDisk and Western Digital "Double Whammy": AI Storage Moves from "Broad Rally Era" to "Individual Stock Judgment"
On August 5, 2026, the US stock storage sector witnessed a highly symbolic scene: SanDisk and Western Digital both plummeted sharply after their earnings reports, with after-hours declines of 8% and 10% respectively, marking a cumulative pullback of about 40% from their June highs. This is not the end of the industry's prosperity but a watershed moment where the AI storage sector shifts from a "beta market" of "rising and falling together" to an "alpha pricing" era focused on individual stocks.
1. Stellar Earnings Yet Sold Off: "Excellence Equals Mediocrity" Under High Expectations
The earnings reports of both companies were impressive:
- SanDisk: Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year and 51% quarter-over-quarter; earnings per share of $39.25; gross margin as high as 84.6%; enterprise SSD shipments continue to climb, with strong data center demand.
- Western Digital: Q4 revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year; gross margin 54.4%; earnings per share $3.56; capacity shipments up 4% quarter-over-quarter; revenue growth 12%; solid profit improvement.
However, the market reaction was the exact opposite. The core reason is that the stock prices had already priced in earnings expectations for the next one to two years: SanDisk's stock rose 468% this year, Western Digital over 200%. Once all the positives are priced in, "normal excellence" becomes "below expectations."
SanDisk's revenue guidance fell short of market expectations, and the flat quarter-over-quarter gross margin signaled a "peak," causing concerns about slowing profit growth; Western Digital, despite beating expectations, was benchmarked against Seagate's HDD business, with the market believing its profit improvement pace has not yet reached the industry ceiling. This "grading based on competitors' results" logic is the harsh reality of a high-expectation market.
2. Not the End of the Storage Bull Market, but the Shattering of the "Broad Rally Illusion"
There was once an absurd consensus: as long as the storage industry raised prices, companies must massively beat expectations every quarter, with the next quarter being even more aggressive. The sharp declines of SanDisk and Western Digital precisely debunk this illusion.
The cyclical nature of the storage industry has not disappeared; it has only been extended by AI demand. SanDisk has locked in most of its capacity through long-term contracts until 2028, turning the "wet market" spot trading into a "subscription membership," which weakens traditional cycle volatility but does not eliminate cycles, merely shifting risks from spot prices to customer performance, contract fulfillment, and technological iteration.
The real signal is not the decline of these two companies but that AI hardware companies like AMD and Nvidia were not collectively dragged down. This indicates the market is shifting from "doubting the entire AI demand when someone falls" to "punishing only those who fail to meet expectations."
3. AI Storage Enters the "Individual Stock Judgment Era": Three Core Pricing Logics Established
In the previous cycle, simply being at the forefront of AI and storage meant "everyone could soar"; in the next cycle, the market will only reward companies that truly have pricing power, long-term contracts, technological delivery, and free cash flow. The current AI storage sector has differentiated into three core pricing logics:
1. HBM Track: Order Certainty Priority
SK Hynix leads the HBM market share, securing customers, prices, and capacity in advance, possessing the highest order visibility and the strongest industry position in the sector.
2. Enterprise SSD Track: Profit Elasticity Priority
SanDisk, after its spin-off, shed traditional businesses and now focuses purely on NAND and enterprise SSD exposure, becoming the most elastic stock in this cycle, with an 84.6% gross margin proving the high premium of enterprise storage.
3. HDD Track: Technological Barrier Priority
Western Digital and Seagate defend the cold data moat through technologies like HAMR. In the AI inference era, cold data storage demand continues to grow, and companies with technological barriers will secure stable cash flow.
4. Conclusion: Negative News Only Kills Negative News Itself; Differentiation Has Just Begun
The sharp declines of SanDisk and Western Digital do not mark the end of the storage bull market but signal that making money from broad industry rallies is becoming increasingly difficult, while profits from individual stock differentiation are just beginning. The true bottoming signal is not that no one falls after bad news but that bad news only hurts the bad news itself.
For investors, the focus should shift from "betting on the sector" to "selecting individual stocks," paying attention to companies with long-term contracts, technological barriers, and free cash flow. Only in the "individual stock judgment era" of AI storage can one truly capture the core returns of the next cycle. $SNDK #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 On Wednesday, the spotlight for risk assets was completely overtaken by gold and US stocks, with Bitcoin failing to keep pace for the second consecutive day—stuck around the $64,000 level, ignoring the S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs. On one side, both safe-haven and equity assets are rising; on the other, "digital gold" remains unmoved—the divergence among these three logics is clearer than ever. 📊 Data Speed Read · Gold: Single-day +2.8%, closing at $4,213 per ounce, the highest since June 22 (about 6 weeks). · Chinese buying: domestic gold ETFs saw net inflows for 14 consecutive days; Year-to-date inflows have dropped to 40 billion RMB (about 5.6 billion USD), still the second strongest first-half performance in history. · Central Bank Support: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings by 82 tons over the past 20 months, providing strong sentiment support. S&P 500: After briefly touching a record high above 7793 during trading, it pulled back, with about 66% of its components climbing above the 50-day moving average. Bitcoin: $64,000 is the short-term focus; Coinbase's premium has been negative for about 80 consecutive days, and domestic US buying remains absent. 🎯 Xiao Analysis: The rebound in gold is not an isolated event—continuous net inflows into Chinese ETFs + central banks' continued gold purchases represent a "certainty allocation" amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty. U.S. stocks have broad support near historical highs (over 60% of component stocks have outperformed benchmarks), so risk appetite is actually not bad. The truly awkward part is the comparisonSanDisk's revenue surged 372%, so why did the stock price drop over 10%?
SanDisk's latest earnings report is contradictory: revenue, profit, gross margin, and cash flow all grew significantly, yet the stock price fell continuously before and after the report. On August 5, it dropped 5.4% intraday, closing at $1350.50. After the earnings release, it fell about 5.3% in after-hours trading, reaching as low as $1279. Compared to the previous trading day's close, the cumulative drop was about 10.4%. The day's high was $1454.09, the low $1197.94, with trading volume exceeding 16.3 million shares, showing intense bullish and bearish divergence.
Looking only at the earnings report, it's nearly flawless. Revenue grew 372%, profits exploded, Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, up 51% quarter-over-quarter and 372% year-over-year. Market expectation was $8.48 billion, actual exceeded by 5.7%. Adjusted EPS was $39.25, expected $34.96, beating by 12.3%. GAAP net income was $6.903 billion, diluted EPS $43.97, compared to a loss of $23 million in the same period last year. Gross margin rose from 78.4% last quarter to 84.6%. For the full fiscal year 2026, revenue was $20.248 billion, up 175% year-over-year; GAAP net income $11.433 billion, adjusted EPS $70.88. The company jumped from last year's losses directly into a phase of high profits and strong cash flow.
This surge is not just due to consumer storage recovery but driven by rapidly growing enterprise demand from AI data centers. Q4 data center revenue was $2.977 billion, up 103% quarter-over-quarter; Edge business $5.432 billion, up 48%. Consumer business was only $556 million, down 32% quarter-over-quarter and 5% year-over-year. Full-year data center revenue was $5.153 billion, up 437%; Edge revenue $12.16 billion, up 195%. Growth focus has shifted from memory cards, USB drives, and consumer SSDs to data centers, enterprise SSDs, and AI infrastructure storage.
Operating cash flow this quarter was $7.126 billion, free cash flow $7.083 billion. After adjusting for prepayments and other effects, adjusted free cash flow was $5.035 billion; full year $8.743 billion. The company also announced an additional $14 billion buyback authorization, with $15.5 billion remaining available. Not only did profits increase on paper, but real cash flow is also very strong, and management is signaling confidence through large-scale buybacks.
If the earnings are so strong, why did the stock price fall? It's not due to poor performance but because market expectations were extremely high. The next quarter's revenue guidance missed expectations. SanDisk expects Q1 revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion. Wall Street expected about $10.8 billion, so the midpoint guidance is 2.3% below expectations. Profit guidance is decent, with adjusted EPS between $44 and $46, midpoint $45, slightly above the expected $44.72. But for a highly valued, volatile hot stock, "meeting expectations" is not enough. Investors buy SanDisk betting on NAND prices continuing to rise, AI storage demand exploding, and quarterly results significantly beating forecasts. When guidance is just "normal," capital naturally chooses to take profits.
The 84.6% gross margin may be near its peak. Next quarter's gross margin guidance is 83% to 85%, midpoint about 84%, indicating management does not expect further significant improvement. An 84% gross margin is already extremely high for NAND manufacturers.
The market naturally wonders: how long can NAND prices keep rising? How long will supply tightness last? Is this a long-term shift or just a temporary cyclical peak?
Revenue growth relies more on price increases. Of the 51% quarter-over-quarter growth this quarter, about one-third came from shipment volume, two-thirds from price hikes. Price increases can quickly boost revenue and profits, but price cycles are the biggest risk in the storage industry. If competitors expand capacity, customer inventories rise, or AI purchasing slows, NAND prices could come under pressure again. Consumer business is shrinking. Consumer revenue was $556 million, down 32% quarter-over-quarter and 5% year-over-year. Growth in data center and Edge segments is enough to compensate but means performance increasingly depends on a few large cloud providers. Profits are higher, but changes in customer capital expenditure have greater impact.
The stock price had risen too much before. Year-to-date gains approached 469%. On June 22, it hit a record high of $2354.39; by the close on August 5, it had retraced about 42.6%, and about 45.7% in after-hours trading. Valuation is built on the premise of significantly beating expectations every quarter; no matter how good the earnings, if guidance is not raised, the stock price may fall.
Core fundamentals remain strong: rapid data center revenue growth, gross margin above 80%, explosive cash flow, increasing long-term customer contracts and buyback scale. This drop looks more like the market repricing overly high expectations and valuations, not a deterioration in fundamentals.
However, SanDisk needs to prove three things going forward:
NAND price increases are not just a short-term cyclical event;
Gross margin above 80% can be sustained for a long time;
AI data center demand can continue converting into real orders and free cash flow, not just customer pre-stocking.
Overall, the performance is very strong, but the market wants not just strong results but continued outperformance of the most optimistic expectations.
Revenue and profit greatly exceeded expectations, with data centers becoming the new growth pillar. But next quarter's revenue guidance is slightly below expectations, gross margin may have peaked temporarily, revenue growth relies heavily on price increases, and prior gains were too large, triggering profit-taking. The market is not denying the AI storage thesis but shifting from focusing solely on growth rate to examining how long growth can last. The next phase determining stock price will no longer be quarterly revenue growth of hundreds of percent but whether the company can convert price increases and supply tightness-driven profits into more stable, longer-term cash flow.
August 13 Investor Day is the next key milestone, where the market will focus on long-term growth targets, customer contracts, capacity planning, and sustainability of high gross margins.
$SNDK
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 8.6 BTC and ETH Market Analysis
BTC surged overnight to test the high of 65022. After a brief rally, the bulls failed to hold the gains, with concentrated selling pressure above causing the price to quickly fall back. After the surge, there was no incremental capital to follow through, and buying momentum was insufficient. The market showed a pattern of rising then falling, with the current price fluctuating around 64600.
This rebound did not open up new upward space; the surge was immediately met with resistance, representing a pullback correction after the rebound. The market clearly feels the bullish strength gradually weakening.
No major external macroeconomic data has been released. The lack of news about a delay in South Korea's crypto taxation policy has somewhat suppressed market sentiment. Without significant positive catalysts, it is difficult for upward momentum to gain sustained capital support. After the surge, profit-taking often leads to a pullback.
This rebound has consistently lacked volume support, limiting the sustainability of the rally. Every rebound to resistance levels presents a good short-term entry point for bears.
Trading suggestions: Short BTC around 64800-65300 with a target of 63800; if broken, look to 63000. Short ETH around 1920-1940 with a target of 1870; if broken, look to 1820. $BTC $ETH Cryptocurrency Morning Market Analysis
Overnight, U.S. stocks continued to surge, with the S&P firmly holding above 7700 at a new high, but the crypto market still hasn't seen an influx of spot capital, continuing the divergence between the two. U.S. Treasury yields hover at high levels, with rate cut expectations repeatedly postponed, putting overall pressure on non-yielding assets. Asian morning liquidity is weak, with the market mainly dominated by contract speculation; false breakouts and stop-loss hunting risks are high. The overall network funding rate is slightly negative, with a high proportion of short positions in the short term. Holding shorts long-term will continuously incur holding costs and is not suitable for overnight positions.
BTC
Currently oscillating around 64300. Key resistance above at 64800, tested multiple times but volume has not kept up; rebounds are mostly due to short covering rather than spot buying. Only a strong volume close above 64800 can open up short-term upside potential. Short-term support box is at 62800, with strong defense at 62200. A valid break below will signal a breakdown of the consolidation pattern and trigger a deeper correction. The 4-hour moving averages are intertwined, showing no clear trend yet.
ETH
Currently around 1885, showing weaker performance than Bitcoin. The 1900 level has turned into strong resistance, with multiple failed attempts to hold above. There is a lack of new on-chain catalysts, activity is muted, and the price is highly correlated with BTC. First support at 1840, strong support at 1810. Without BTC breaking out, ETH is unlikely to have an independent rebound.
SOL
Currently at 74.6, trading in the 72-77 range. Heavy resistance at 76.5. As a high-beta mainstream coin, it experiences pulse-like rallies during market oscillations but with poor sustainability. 70 is a critical lifeline; a break below will lead to a retracement significantly larger than BTC's. Market funds are divided, with strong upside elasticity but equally fierce downside retracements.
XRP
Narrow consolidation around 1.06, no news catalysts, passively following the broader market. Heavy resistance at 1.12, key psychological support at 1.00. Overall volatility is low, making it a defensive mainstream coin unlikely to have an independent major move; useful for gauging overall market sentiment.
DOGE
Range-bound between 0.069-0.071, driven by meme sentiment, with frequent spikes and stop-loss hunting. Without hot themes, sustained rallies are difficult. During market pullbacks, retracements are significant. Suitable only for very small position short-term trading, not for heavy overnight holding.
Morning Trading Highlights
1. The market is still in a consolidation phase choosing direction; avoid betting on one-sided moves prematurely. Do not chase longs at resistance, and do not blindly short if support is not decisively broken. New highs in U.S. stocks only support risk appetite baseline and cannot be directly translated into crypto uptrends.
2. Asian morning liquidity is poor; leverage positions should be reduced, avoid high leverage overnight to prevent random stop-loss hunting.
3. Focus on two core signals: BTC volume breakout and hold above 64800; a clear drop in U.S. Treasury yields. Only when both resonate will the rebound be more reliable.
4. Coin-specific strategies: BTC range trade with high sell and low buy; ETH follows BTC movements; SOL quick in and out, closely watch the 70 lifeline; XRP suitable for observation; DOGE limited to small position short-term trades. $BTC $ETH [Clarity Bill Progress Update, 26.08.06(07:03) - Will be finalized within this week.]
1. Senate Majority Leader John Thune yesterday (8/5) filed a motion to end debate on the college sports bill and others, but did not file a cloture motion. This signals that bipartisan consensus has not yet been reached.
2. On the contrary, negotiations between Republican and Democratic staff have been very active in the past 24 hours. The goal is to develop a consensus plan that moderate Democrats can support for the cloture motion. If reached, it will pave the way for advancing the full session in September.
3. The core point of contention remains the ethics provisions. The bipartisan amendment submitted by Tillis (Republican) + Gallego (Democrat) is currently under White House review, confirmed by Tillis. Compared to before, White House involvement is a positive sign.
4. Explanation of cloture motion sequence
4-1. First stage cloture: Allows a procedural vote to formally discuss the bill. Requires 60 votes. This is the most critical hurdle.
4-2. Second stage cloture: After debate and amendment handling, a vote to end debate and proceed to final vote. Also requires 60 votes.
4-3. Final vote: Simple majority (usually 51 votes) to pass.
→ Currently, even the first stage cloture motion has not been filed.
5. After the first stage cloture motion is filed, the vote usually occurs on the second session day. If the motion is filed just before recess, the application remains valid and can be voted on in September. Technically, it is also possible to "file only the first stage then recess."
6. However, if the cloture motion is filed without consensus, it is unlikely to reach 60 votes, so Senate Majority Leader (Republican) John Thune is deliberately delaying to gain more negotiation time.
7. Although very unlikely, a slight delay in recess and attempting the first stage cloture vote on Friday or the weekend is not entirely impossible. Some are discussing this, but it’s best not to have high expectations.
8. Final passage before recess is impossible. The realistic scenario is: recess with some negotiation progress → attempt first stage cloture motion in September.
Conclusion: The bill is not dead but has entered the September phase. How much concession the White House makes on the ethics provisions will be the remaining key variable.
P.S. Efforts have been made to exclude rumors and include only facts.
This work can be wrapped up after this week. Sigh…The lower the price, the more likely it is to attract people, but low price is never a reason for cheapness. Have you ever thought that what might really eat up your profits isn't the market, but those new tokens quietly unlocked? Recently, when I've been browsing on-chain data, I always feel like it's 'lively on the surface but leaky underneath.' The market is rising, sentiment is warming, but behind many coins' candlesticks hangs a dense unlock calendar. The market is like walking a tightrope: on one side is FOMO ignited by narrative, on the other is selling pressure that could collapse at any moment. We are often danished by the word "low price," but forget to look at something more fundamental—the real cost is hidden within the supply structure. I am used to using the derivative structure as a thermometer. It doesn't tell you tomorrow's rise or fall, but it can tell you who is currently increasing positions and secretly hedgeing in the market. For example, a certain Layer2 quarterly delivery contract quietly expanded its open interest before the unlock date, but the spot price remained completely unchanged, indicating that someone was preparing to sell in advance rather than simply being bullish. For example, for those new coins with absurdly high FDVs, options skew has always leaned toward puts. No matter how loudly the community calls for trades, professional funds are actually very honest: they are buying insurance, not chasing highs. I've compiled several unlock nodes worth keeping an eye on. I'm not here to avoid them, but to remind you not to take over when others are selling: - List of large-value unlocks: ARB, OP, STRK, ZK, EIGEN, TIA, SUI, APT, JUP, W As the financial report for 'Nothing to Say, No Words to Say Anything' approaches, $SPACE is playing out a dramatic bullish and bearish battle, with $24.6 billion in short positions lying in wait on Musk's disappointing results. Currently, the core internal conflict within $SPACE is becoming increasingly prominent: the company's profitability is still far from supporting current market valuations, but under the dual expectations of earnings reports and the unlocking of restrictions, the stock price may first experience significant volatility under the impact of bearish forces. In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX will achieve revenue of $4.694 billion, but its net loss will reach $4.276 billion. Starlink's business continues to expand rapidly, serving as a tangible cash growth point for the company; However, long-term projects such as Starship R&D, AI infrastructure, and space data centers continue to consume cash flow aggressively, leaving the pressure to burn cash remains high. The market has given a consensus forecast range for the second quarter: revenue of $6.87–$6.98 billion, net loss estimated at about $1.9 billion. In the short term, the company still finds it difficult to achieve stable profitability. So the core highlight of this financial report is not to deny SpaceX's long-term potential. The real question is: Can the revenue and profit generated by Starlink really cover the huge financial holes caused by the company's ongoing expansion? Even though the long-term narrative of the space track is enticing enough, no matter how grand the story, valuations ultimately depend on revenue, cash flow, and profits to be realized. And on the board,$SNDK $XSNDK SanDisk's earnings report really exploded, revenue nearly quadrupled, profits turned positive, and the data center business surged dramatically. But it still dropped after hours, why? Simply put, it had risen too crazily before, almost 5 times this year, everyone was waiting to "sell on good news," a classic case of dying in the spotlight. Plus, although the next quarter's guidance is decent, it didn't satisfy the most optimistic crowd, giving a bit of a "below expectations" vibe. Big players in the contract market are also exiting, with more shorts than longs, sentiment is cautious. The technicals also broke the moving average, so short-term selling pressure is significant.
Yesterday's SanDisk short position was reduced before bed with a breakeven stop loss held, but I accidentally set a take profit as well, which triggered at 1288 and closed the position. Woke up confused to find the position gone 😅, those holding on are going to be dizzy 😈#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 "Speak only when you have something to say; don't force words when you don't."
What should be said is not said. $SNDK SanDisk disclosed its key Q4 earnings last night, and the current market consensus has given an extremely bright growth forecast: quarterly revenue is expected to reach $8.39 billion, a significant 41% increase quarter-over-quarter; earnings per share are expected at $33.01, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 43.33%. Combined with the company's previous official guidance, this quarter was set to be a solid high-growth close, with revenue and profits likely to break historical records again—a perfect earnings celebration from a fundamental data perspective.
However, the market trend has long departed from a simple single-quarter earnings logic, showing a typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" preemptive game. As early as July, SanDisk's stock price suffered a deep correction, plunging 47% in a single month. This sharp sell-off fully demonstrates that the market no longer focuses on the current quarter's impressive revenue and profit growth but instead has preemptively priced in concerns and long-term risks. The core divergence among investors is clear: Is the NAND flash super cycle driven by the AI computing infrastructure boom a sustainable structural long-term trend, or just a short-term rebound caused by supply-demand mismatches?
Looking at this storage upcycle, it fundamentally differs from past traditional consumer electronics-driven inventory cycles. Previously, NAND trends were mainly driven by channel stocking and destocking switches in phones and PCs, characterized by short cycles, high volatility, and weak sustainability. This time, the core driver is the rigid incremental demand from the AI industry: AI large model training and inference scenarios require massive KV cache support, forcing cloud providers and data centers to continuously expand enterprise SSD storage, creating rigid and sustained incremental demand. Industry data also confirms the boom: institutions predict the global NAND market will exceed $300 billion by 2026 and approach $500 billion by 2027, with AI data centers accounting for half the market, completely restructuring storage industry demand. Meanwhile, SanDisk has secured multiple long-term customer cooperation agreements, locking in stable revenue for years to come, coupled with a billion-dollar stock buyback plan, providing solid support for mid-to-long-term cash flow and business certainty.
However, market anxiety cannot be ignored and is the biggest point of contention in this earnings report. The previous stock price surge has fully priced in industry optimism. The current core support of high revenue and high gross margin mainly comes from NAND product price increases rather than comprehensive volume release. This structural imbalance between volume and price growth makes investors highly skeptical about the sustainability of high profitability. At the same time, the market is extremely focused on the company's next quarter guidance—compared to this quarter's slight beat, the guidance midpoint, the continuity of cloud giant orders, and NAND price trends are the key factors determining the subsequent trend.
In short, tomorrow night's earnings report does not follow a simple "good news means rise, bad news means fall" logic.
If the report only meets market expectations without incremental beats, or if the subsequent guidance is flat and cannot confirm sustained volume improvement, the recovery rally after the July plunge will likely stop, and investors will further play the cycle peak risk;
But if the report achieves triple beats in revenue, gross margin, and data center business, while next quarter guidance is raised confirming a volume and price rise trend, it will completely dispel market cycle anxiety, validate the long-term AI storage logic, and drive dual valuation and stock price recovery.
At this stage, the core trading idea is not to bet on direction. Given the large expectation gap and high volatility around the earnings window, it is advisable to proactively reduce positions and leverage first to avoid event-driven volatility risk. After the earnings release, based on three core indicators—data center revenue growth, NAND volume-price structure, and long-term guidance—reassess the sustainability of this AI storage boom and position accordingly for a certain trend. $SKHYNIX $SNDK #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 As expected, the script still played out.
SanDisk SNDK's earnings report greatly exceeded expectations, but the stock price did not soar; instead, it experienced a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction.
This scene is almost identical to what happened with SPCX before.
The performance is excellent, growth is strong, and the AI narrative remains unchanged.
However, the market had already priced in all expectations in advance.
When everyone is waiting for an "outperformance," the outperformance itself is no longer a surprise.
What investors truly care about is whether the company can continue to outperform in the future.
Therefore, even if revenue and profits both blow past estimates, as long as the guidance for the next quarter doesn't further ignite market sentiment, profit-taking by investors is very likely.
This is the classic phrase of earnings season:
Buy the expectation, sell the fact.
It's not that the company is bad, but the market's appetite is too large.
Next, we will see if new capital comes in to reprice the AI storage theme after the pullback. $SOL not rising, to put it simply in four words: **the money hasn't come**.
On-chain data looks unbelievably good — weekly transaction volume just broke 1 billion transactions, hitting a historic high; TVL surged to 60.2 million SOL, a three-year peak; nearly 100 million transactions daily; DeFi locked $8.6 billion. But the price? $74 sideways, can't even hold $75.
Why? Because **on-chain activity ≠ capital inflow**.
Look at these hard facts:
**Inflation pressure.** SOL has no total supply cap, continuously issued daily. The number of holding addresses has decreased over the past two weeks, retail investors are withdrawing. Stablecoin supply dropped 17% to $10.3 billion — money is flowing out.
**Moving averages all overhead.** 50-day EMA at $79 pressing down, 100-day EMA at $75 pressing down, 200-day EMA at $91 far away. RSI at 46, half-dead, MACD can't even form a golden cross.
**Fee income is too meager.** 9.9 billion transaction volume, weekly income $21 million, just a fraction compared to ETH. Wall Street looks at profits, not TPS.
**Most crucial: BTC isn't leading.** BTC itself is stuck below $64K, no sign of altcoin season. SOL dropped 75% from ATH $293, confidence already collapsed, without incremental funds who will carry you?
Fundamentals aren't bad, but now it's **a liquidity problem, not a technical problem.** BTC doesn't break $66K, SOL don't expect to touch $80. Here's a quietly repriced but easily overlooked figure: CME interest rate futures show the market now prices a 54% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in September, with a 45% chance of holding steady. Note the direction—it's a rate hike, not a cut. Kashkari and Cook have consecutively hawkish statements; this isn't just talk, it's money voting with real capital. What does this mean for $BTC? Expectations of tightening liquidity and rising opportunity costs for zero-yield assets—that's also why the US stock market hits new highs daily while $BTC is stuck at 64K: risk appetite and liquidity expectations are being pulled in two opposite directions. Data won't play along with you. Do you really think there will be a rate hike in September? #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH
Italy's largest bank slashed its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 94% and tripled its Ethereum staking position
— Italy's biggest bank, together with Banco San Paolo, cut its holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF by 94% in Q2. They reduced from over 640,000 shares down to just over 40,000 shares, while tripling their Ethereum staking ETF holdings from over 110,000 shares to nearly 350,000 shares.
Looking into the specific holdings, the bank also did something quite interesting — it cleared out 99% of its IBIT call options while adding 500,000 shares worth of put options. Essentially, they reduced exposure while buying insurance.
They haven't fully exited, still holding 3.46 million shares of ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, valued at over $67 million. So, it's not that they are bearish—they still have a position. But buying puts suggests caution. Overall, the moves look more like asset structure rebalancing rather than a purely bearish stance.
Similarly, Harvard University exited $87 million worth of Ethereum staking ETF in Q1 and cut its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 43%. The same event, but two institutions moving in completely opposite directions.
$BTC ……$ETH $OKB 1. Price Overview: Today, OKB shows significant differences due to different data sources, with main quotes distributed across three distinct ranges: · Around $84.71: Bitget shows 1 OKB ≈ $84.71, 24-hour increase 3.80%, intraday high $84.71, low $80.61 · Around $86.4: CoinGlass shows OKB's current price at $86.4, basically flat in the past 4 hours · About $98.03: Another Bitget data source shows a real-time price of about $98.03, down 1.02% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of $99.35 and a low of $95.95. This rare large divergence in quotes reflects extremely significant differences in liquidity depth across platforms, with OKB's pricing efficiency being relatively low. It is recommended to use OKX's official market data as the main reference. Additionally, according to HTX data, OKB has dropped about 54% since its all-time high of $238 last October. 2. Trading Volume: Rising with Shrinking Volume, Momentum in Doubt. CoinGlass data shows that OKB futures trading volume fell by 59.09% in the past 4 hours, and spot trading volume dropped by 70.12%. This "volume shrinks and rises" pattern indicates that buying pressure is still acceptable but trading volume cannot keep up, resulting in low market activity. This pattern usually appears during rebounds or attempts to break resistance, but its sustainability is questionable. From the perspective of bullish and bearish forces, spot market buyers have a slight advantage (Taker Buy 51.17% vs Sell 48.PRICE VOLATILITY of $XAUT this morning. Is the influence of $BTC significant?
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates
1. The nature of $XAUT (Tether Gold)
$XAUT is a collateralized cryptocurrency (stablecoin) pegged to the price of physical Gold (each $XAUT token is equivalent to 1 troy ounce of real gold secured in a vault in Switzerland).
Direct influencing factors: Global gold price, FED interest rate policy, geopolitical developments, and the strength of the USD.
Characteristic: Safe-haven asset.
2. Is the influence of $BTC on $XAUT significant?
Short answer: NOT significant in terms of intrinsic value, but there is a slight short-term impact in the crypto market.
🔴 Direct impact (Level: Very low)
The price of $XAUT does not fluctuate based on $BTC because of an arbitrage mechanism with real gold.
If the $XAUT price on crypto exchanges deviates from the global gold price due to Bitcoin's volatility, funds and traders will buy or sell $XAUT to redeem gold, immediately pulling the $XAUT price back to equilibrium with the actual gold price.
🟡 Indirect impact & short-term sentiment (Level: Light)
Capital flow rotation: When $BTC experiences strong volatility or sudden decline, capital in the crypto market tends to withdraw from risky assets to safe assets. $XAUT is the preferred choice for crypto investors seeking value shelter without converting to fiat currency.
Liquidity impact: When $BTC drops sharply causing margin call liquidations, some traders may need to sell $XAUT in their portfolios to cover margin. This can cause short-term price spikes of $XAUT on the order book before adjusting back to the gold price.
3. In summary
$XAUT price: Always moves closely following global Gold price trends.
Impact from $BTC: Bitcoin only affects internal capital flow sentiment within the Crypto market and short-term liquidity, not altering the fundamental valuation of $XAUT.
#SpaceXBeatEstimates Brothers, what has happened inside the Federal Reserve in the past two months is more exciting than the past two years.
At the June meeting, 9 out of 19 officials expected a rate cut this year. By July 29, the FOMC maintained rates unchanged with a 9-3 vote — the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned in the same meeting.
The three dissenters: Cleveland Fed President Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan. All three advocated for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.
In June, these three supported holding steady, but a month later they collectively shifted to raising rates. The speed of this change caught even Wall Street off guard.
Why are they in such a hurry?
All three spoke out publicly after the meeting, which is rare.
Logan focused on current underlying inflation, believing monetary policy has "not exerted any meaningful downward pressure" on inflation. Kashkari emphasized preventing tail risks — if inflation remains stubborn, he might support a series of rate hikes, not just one. "Taking a series of small policy adjustments may be better than waiting for the situation to develop and ultimately having to take more aggressive action." Mester was the most direct: she has "no confidence that prices will return to normal on their own," directly questioning whether current rates are sufficient to suppress demand.
What is Waller doing?
Waller’s first action after taking office was to scrap forward guidance. The July statement was only 115 words long, the shortest in nearly two decades. Voting records were canceled, forward guidance was removed, and almost all market signals used to gauge direction were eliminated.
His logic is that the Fed should not guide market expectations; the market should interpret data and make judgments on its own. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm pointed out that Waller not only canceled forward guidance but also seemed to downplay the Fed’s reaction function.
What was the effect? The market outright rejected it.
The 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, a new high since 2007. The 10-year yield rose above 4.7%, hitting a new peak for the year.
The signal from the market is clear: if you just talk and don’t act, I will tighten myself. Bond investors don’t believe the Fed can tame inflation and have started pricing in higher long-term inflation and policy risks.
CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has surged to 67.2%. It took only two months to go from "when will rates be cut" to "will there be a hike in September."
Back to the market.
BTC latest price is about 63,000-63,500, fluctuating between 62,500-64,000 in 24 hours. Resistance above is 64,000-64,500, support below is 62,500-62,800.
ETH latest price is about 1,850-1,870, resistance above is 1,900-1,920, support below is 1,830-1,850.
Old Mo says a few words.
The Fed’s internal divisions becoming public has a dual impact on crypto assets. In the short term, the nearly 70% probability of a September hike and rising risk-free rate expectations put pressure on risk asset valuations. But in the medium term, the 30-year Treasury yield has already surged to 5.27%, meaning financial conditions have tightened substantially. If the market has already priced in the Fed’s hikes, an actual hike in September might be "bad news fully priced in."
The key is the Jackson Hole global central bank conference at the end of August — how Waller positions himself and whether he sets the tone for September will be the real turning point.
Trading strategy: wait for BTC to stabilize at 62,500-62,800 before buying, stop loss below 62,000, target 64,000-64,500. For ETH, wait for signals at 1,830-1,850, stop loss below 1,800, target 1,900-1,920.
September hike probability is 67%, are you betting on a hike or not? Let’s discuss in the comments.
If you think Old Mo’s analysis is clear, please like and follow. I’ll notify you first when the Jackson Hole conference results come out. $ETH $BTC $SNDK #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 How is it? What I said early this morning
$SPCX pumping was a bull trap to lure entries
Now it has dropped back to 110, all the gains from a few days ago are gone
I opened a position at 110, it peaked at 130, now back to 110
The first unlock is at 9:30 tonight, panic is definitely present
The largest unlock doesn't mean all 910 million shares will be sold
But if 100-200 million shares are sold at the current price
Then the price might fall back to the 100-105 range
Where there is panic, there are buyers bottom-fishing; breaking below double digits is just a matter of time
Why? Because there are multiple unlocks in August, and also in September
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ SNDK rose 40% in seven days, and tonight's earnings report is a magic mirror—both bulls and bears are betting on their own side. Is the 1447 level built by retail investors with real money, or is it just the last bit of news momentum? Let's look at the data first: pulling up from the bottom, six out of seven candlesticks are bullish, with a rise close to 40%. This slope itself carries a sense of emotional excitement. MA30, MA60, and MA120 hang overhead like three knives. The current price of 1425 is only $60 away from the first resistance level, and that area is all trapped positions left by previous deep drops. With every step up, there are hands waiting to break even. The news is actually clear. SanDisk teamed up with SK hynix, and with Google's involvement, created a new HBF storage standard. The story of AI memory expansion has been told for days, and the rise from the bottom to 1447 has already exhausted expectations by more than half. Tonight's earnings report is released. If it's a surprise, that's called all the good news being released; If it's mediocre, that's called disappointing expectations. The crypto market is all about expectations; the moment news turns into news, the trading value disappears. The market signals are worth a close look. Crowding of long positions is high, with retail investors taking up the majority of contract positions. This structure is most vulnerable to a direction reversal; once a chain stop loss is triggered, the pullback will not be gentle. My average short position price is already at 1420.73, with the strong discount at 1874, still far away, but I know clearly that at this level, it's either a waterfall or crushed by the bulls—there's no middle ground. From a sector strength perspective, storage concepts have recently attracted more attention than AI computing power, attracting more capital트럼프 테마 밈코인, 1.4달러라는 가격은 시장이 매긴 '정치적 내러티브'의 현재 가치다 과연 이 가격대에서 매수한 포지션은 어느 쪽의 레버리지가 더 유리하게 작동하고 있을까. 원문은 2025년 10월 10일 대규모 청산 사태 이후 시장 참여자들의 손실과 좌절을 트럼프 밈코인 가격에 대입해 풀어낸 회고록이다. OP, DOT 등 기술주형 알트코인이 하락장에서 지지선을 지키지 못한 반면, 트럼프 테마 코인은 정치적 이벤트에 연동된 수급으로 상대적 강세를 유지했다는 점이 골자다. 원문에서 확인 가능한 사실은 트럼프 코인 가격이 1.4달러, 청산일이 2025년 10월 10일, 원문 작성자의 스팟 보유 기준 손실률이 -80%라는 점이다. 핵심은 이 하락장이 기술적 가치가 아닌 유동성과 포지션 청산에 의해 가격이 결정되는 '수급 주도 시장'이었다는 점이다. 10월 10일 대규모 청산은 마진콜과 강제 청산이 연쇄적으로 발생하면서 스팟 보유자까지 손실에 노출시킨 사건으로, 이는 시장이 펀더멘털보다The overall market focus shifted upward in the early morning session. BTC once pushed up to the 65000 level, but the expected resistance was still strong; it retreated obediently after touching it, and the current price has returned to around 64600 for consolidation. Ethereum performed stronger than BTC in this wave, rebounding from the 1860 low point with a bullish counterattack, once recovering to near 1930 but facing pressure, precisely stuck at a previous key resistance level. It is currently still consolidating above 1900. In actual trading, BTC successfully took profit after retesting around 63800 yesterday, capturing a 600-point range; Ethereum’s retracement was weaker, stopping losses at the 1900 level and exiting the position. Losses were accepted, and short positions were re-entered at high levels, which are still held.
The daily chart shows consecutive bullish candles pushing higher, followed by a doji star consolidation, indicating a strong recovery phase but no new upward space opened. After briefly breaking above the midline, the pullback did not break support, so the daily structure remains mainly range-bound. The previous high at 65700 faced resistance and fell back; the second attempt to rise did not hold above 65000, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Whether it can break further upward depends on whether volume confirmation can be given near the midline. Indicators show a golden cross upward; the short-term focus remains on whether the 65700 level can be effectively broken. Failure to do so means the bearish trend continues. The 4-hour chart shows a short-term ascending channel; after the price surged, the key is whether it can hold above the 120-day moving average. If it holds, the upside space may further open; if the price closes below the 120-day moving average, it signals a new round of correction is about to begin. Indicators still show overbought risk; avoid chasing highs and continue to maintain a high-short strategy for short-term trades.
BTC short in the 64700-65000 range, target 63800-63000. ETH short in the 1915-1930 range, target 1880. #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH Crypto Morning Report for August 6: Let's review some past and current points to watch
$BTC returned to around 64700 this morning, with a 24-hour high of 65026 and a low of 63880. After breaking above 65000 last night, it failed to hold, indicating selling pressure remains above. 64000 is still an important support level today.
US July ADP employment increased by only 44,000, below the market expectation of 75,000. US Treasury yields fell accordingly, easing rate hike pressure, which is somewhat positive for crypto. BTC continues to outperform $ETH, with risk capital temporarily preferring to stay in Bitcoin.
Tonight at 20:30, watch for US initial jobless claims and Q2 productivity and unit labor costs; on Friday at the same time, nonfarm payrolls will be released. The official calendar has confirmed the release times.
Data continues to cool down, giving BTC a chance to retest 65000–65500. Employment and wage costs remain strong, so first watch 64000; if it breaks, look to 63800. Currently, it's better to wait for confirmation at key levels; avoid chasing altcoins too aggressively for now.Don't fantasize about $DOGE hitting $1! To achieve this, the right timing, favorable conditions, and unity are all indispensable #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查
Many people have a persistent obsession: when will DOGE reach $1?
Objectively speaking, relying solely on an Elon Musk tweet or community hype can't push it to that level; it requires hundreds of billions in incremental capital to come together.
Let's do a realistic calculation: based on the current DOGE circulating supply, if the price reaches $1, the market cap would approach $150 billion, nearly half the size of Ethereum.
To support such a large market cap, faith alone is far from enough; there must be a continuous inflow of real money.
For DOGE to challenge $1, at least four conditions must resonate simultaneously; none can be missing.
First, complete a narrative transformation, shifting from meme culture to real payment adoption.
The era of relying on memes and celebrity endorsements to drive the market is over. A hundred-billion-dollar market cap can't be sustained by sentiment alone.
DOGE needs real payment use cases, such as deep integration of DOGE payments on X, and large-scale support for DOGE settlements by merchants like Tesla.
Without real business adoption, there is no valuation anchor; no matter how lively the hype, it is ultimately a castle in the air.
Second, the overall market must enter a super bull market.
An unchanging rule in crypto: the leader sets the stage, hotspots perform.
If Bitcoin doesn't break its all-time high and Ethereum doesn't open upward momentum, meme coins will struggle to have an independent major rally.
Only when hot money floods the market and retail FOMO is fully unleashed does DOGE have the soil to take off.
Third, large-scale institutional capital must enter.
Retail investors alone can't leverage a hundred-billion-dollar market cap.
We need to see traditional institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity launch DOGE-related ETFs or trust products.
Only when compliant institutional channels open can large incremental funds flow smoothly, bringing transformative capital input.
Fourth, a globally loose liquidity environment must support it.
Meme coins are essentially a product of excess liquidity.
With the Fed continuously cutting rates, dollar liquidity easing, and risk appetite rising, overflow funds will flow into high-risk meme assets. In a monetary tightening cycle, talking about $1 is mostly fantasy.
Besides, pay attention to its token mechanism: DOGE has no supply cap and continuously issues new coins annually, constantly adding selling pressure. The longer the timeline, the higher the capital threshold needed to push the price up.
Of course, mathematically it's not impossible, but even if it reaches $1, it's most likely during a broad market rally where major coins surge collectively, and DOGE just follows the trend.
Expecting it to break away from the market and have an independent super rally does not align with market realities.
Meme trading can be speculative, but principal must be protected. Don't be swept away by beautiful price fantasies; avoid going all in and keep reserve funds for living expenses. #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议
@OKX成长学院
$BSB
$SOL "Speak only when you have something to say; don't force words when you don't."
Before and after the SanDisk earnings report is released, market volatility will significantly increase. Referring to this earnings performance, even if the current revenue and profit greatly exceed expectations, a post-market decline still occurs. Essentially, this is the realization of previously over-optimistic expectations, and the fundamentals have not materially deteriorated. From an operational perspective, it is not recommended to bet on the earnings results in advance; priority should be given to reducing positions and compressing leverage to avoid principal drawdowns caused by the event.
Earnings trading should not only focus on surface-level performance. Even if core indicators exceed expectations, if the degree of outperformance is limited, subsequent guidance falls short, or the market has already priced in the good news, pressure is still likely. SanDisk's data center business grew strongly this quarter, AI-driven enterprise storage demand is confirmed, and buybacks along with long-term customer agreements underpin mid-to-long-term cash flow. However, the risk lies in weak guidance for the next quarter, and this round of growth is more driven by NAND price increases without a corresponding rise in sales volume, leading the market to question the sustainability of high gross margins.
Therefore, I will not make heavy position decisions based solely on the earnings headline or instant post-market moves. Key indicators to watch: revenue, adjusted EPS, gross margin, next quarter guidance, while closely monitoring enterprise SSD, data center revenue, NAND prices, and hyperscale cloud customer demand. Compared to a slight single-quarter profit beat, future earnings guidance and data center business momentum carry more weight. Going forward, it is important to see whether growth can transition from price hikes to simultaneous price and volume increases, to judge whether a pullback is a healthy adjustment or a signal of weakening trend.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ The most divided sector right now is the "storage stocks": on one hand, the fundamentals are very strong, but prices are plummeting.....
-The fundamentals are: "The cycle of DRAM/HBM supply shortage is completely ongoing":
Price increases, capacity shortages, and major manufacturers' expansion plans are all scheduled through 2027-2028.
This is a slow variable; a quarterly report or an earnings call at most confirms or disproves this big direction but cannot change its pace.
-But prices are a completely different issue: "At the current price, has the 'cycle + expectations for the next two to three years' already been overdrawn in advance?"
This is a fast variable, determined by position sizes, leverage, sentiment, and marginal trading orders, almost unrelated to whether the fundamentals hold.
$STX rising to 78x PE is not because it is better than $MU, but because it is bought more aggressively and overleveraged more.
The root of the division lies in: fundamentals are about "how long the cycle lasts," while price is about "how much upside remains priced in at this level."
One is a slow variable on the weekly/monthly level, the other is a fast variable on the minute/daily level.
So we see "good news landing, but stock price falling" — the good news confirms the cycle is intact.
But if the price has already priced in or even over-priced this good news, the moment it lands is actually a window for realization/selling, not a reason to buy.
The farmer hasn't even swung his hoe yet, and you have already bet all the expectations for the next few years.....In-depth Analysis of All Reasons Behind Sandisk's (SanDisk) Stock Price Plunge
Recently, SanDisk's stock price has repeatedly plunged sharply. Even though its financial report showed revenue soaring by 372% and profits hitting a record high, it still couldn't avoid the decline. This is due to multiple overlapping factors including its position in the strong cyclical storage sector, expectation speculation, industry headwinds, and capital flight. Below is a breakdown of all the causes:
1. Direct Trigger: Next Quarter's Revenue Guidance Falls Short of Market Expectations
SanDisk's latest Q4 revenue was $8.96 billion, far exceeding institutional estimates, but it gave a Q1 2027 revenue guidance range of only $10.3–10.8 billion, with the midpoint below analysts' consensus lower bound of $10.8 billion.
Storage chips are currently benefiting from the AI computing power boom, and capital has very low tolerance for growth slowdown; even if performance explodes, as long as future growth expectations cool down, capital will immediately sell off. This is the direct cause of the 6.69% plunge in after-hours trading following the earnings release.
2. Excessive Prior Gains Leading to Large-scale Profit Taking
1. In the first half of 2026, SanDisk rode the AI solid-state drive wave, with its stock price soaring over 800%, making it one of the biggest winners in the US stock market that year. Its valuation had long priced in 1–2 years of future performance benefits.
2. Classic capital market rule: buy the expectation, sell the fact. After the earnings report was officially released, institutions that entered at low levels collectively cashed out profits, triggering a stampede of shares, with a maximum monthly drop exceeding 50% and a market value evaporation of $200 billion.
3. Cooling AI Storage Demand Dividend and Loosening Computing Power Procurement Expectations
1. Leading overseas cloud providers have started to control AI hardware capital expenditures. Meta reportedly plans to rent out idle computing power externally, raising market concerns about slowing procurement growth of servers and enterprise-grade SSDs. SanDisk focuses on NAND flash and AI solid-state drives, with performance highly dependent on data center orders.
2. South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix have officially announced plans for massive storage capacity expansion. Investors are preemptively predicting flash memory oversupply and a chip price decline cycle restart in 2027, intensifying anxiety about the storage cycle inflection point.
4. Pressure from Shareholder Sell-offs
Earlier, Western Digital planned to liquidate all its SanDisk shares, with a sell-off scale equivalent to $3.09 billion. This large selling pressure caused investor concerns and previously triggered a plunge of over 6%.
5. Intensified Industry Competition Pressure
Domestic storage chip manufacturers are rapidly iterating technology, with solid-state drives and flash chips showing cost-performance advantages, capturing overseas market share. SanDisk's overseas consumer flash business revenue declined 32% quarter-over-quarter this quarter, with weak consumer-end business dragging down overall growth prospects.
6. Macro Market and Semiconductor Sector Sentiment Drag
1. Rising international oil prices have sparked inflation rebound, delaying market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. High-valuation technology and semiconductor sectors are under overall pressure.
2. The storage sector has strong interconnectivity; Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital all plunged simultaneously, spreading panic sentiment across the sector, with SanDisk following the collective correction in the track.
Summary
SanDisk's sharp decline is not due to deteriorating business operations. Essentially, after the AI storage bull market, the market shifted from mindless chasing to rigorously scrutinizing growth expectations; combined with concerns over capacity oversupply, high-level profit-taking, peer competition pressure, and the last quarter's earnings guidance falling short of expectations, this became the trigger for the stock price plunge. The recently proposed EIP-8363, which sets the Ethereum staking reward to 0 when the staking ratio reaches 50%, is basically a death sentence for Bitmain.
Bitmain's income basically relies entirely on staking.
Although the formula needs to be examined in detail,
if implemented, it can be assumed that income would be cut by about half.
So
Bitmain shareholders
feel that if this passes, it’s over.
Anyway, EIP is just a proposal, but... this has been a frequently discussed topic for a long time, so it can’t be completely ignored... and the proposer is that big shot in the foundation who always shouts about "ultrasound money" every time...
There are too many stakeholders now, and this proposal has been highly controversial from the start due to centralization issues, so... even if discussions happen, it will probably undergo massive revisions.
Ethereum’s current approach does have problems.
(Because staking rewards don’t converge to 0, the total supply increases as validators increase.)
In any case, I am absolutely and firmly opposed... (because I am a Bitmain shareholder...)Sorry, even if you are Apple, it won't work. $AAPL
The toughest price cutter on the client side worldwide. The price cut was rejected.
Apple approached ChangXin Memory to negotiate a price reduction for LPDDR5X. ChangXin is the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer.
No deal. Pricing must not be lower than Samsung or SK Hynix. Not a single cent off.
Two years ago, this company was still on the sanctions list.
Why dare to refuse? Production capacity was already fully booked. Huawei and Xiaomi signed long-term contracts locking in capacity. ByteDance signed a 5-year $7 billion storage long-term order. HP and ASUS have also started using it. Apple came too late.
Samsung also raised prices. Apple negotiated with Samsung, and Samsung quoted a 100% increase. Apple accepted on the spot.
Yu Chengdong said today that selling phones without raising prices is selling at a loss.
An AI server consumes 8 to 10 times the memory of a regular server. Two-thirds of global DRAM capacity is consumed by AI. 12GB phone memory rose from 200 to 600 in half a year.
ChangXin's Q2 revenue increased by 716%. By the end of the year, it may surpass Micron to become the third largest globally.
Is it still a cyclical stock?Mismatch Between Market Cap and Popularity: Dogecoin's Valuation Has Never Been a Technical Issue
Let's start with some glaring data: as of August 5, $DOGE is priced around $0.07, with a market cap of approximately $10.8 to $11 billion, ranking 11th on CoinGecko and still firmly in the top ten on Coinbase's popularity list. A "joke coin" forked from Litecoin's code in 2013, twelve years later, with sparse development commits, virtually zero ecosystem applications, and an annual fixed inflation of about 5 billion coins, it still consistently ranks above many serious technical public blockchains. This mismatch itself is one of the most intriguing phenomena in the crypto market.
If you try to value Dogecoin by traditional logic, it's almost impossible. No cash flow, no smart contract ecosystem, no decent developer team, and core code maintenance relies long-term on volunteers. This is very similar to early XRP—back then, XRP's market cap surged into the top three, but its on-chain real usage was also heavily questioned, yet the market still gave it a high premium. The difference is that XRP at least had a company and a "cross-border payment" story, while Dogecoin doesn't even bother telling a story; its only product is its own dog head logo. Yet precisely this "having nothing" makes it the purest form of speculation: no fundamentals to weigh it down, so no valuation ceiling anchor.
So what exactly is the market paying for? I believe it's the "social currency" logic. Dogecoin's pricing factor has never been code quality but attention—Elon Musk's tweets, Reddit tipping culture, institutional allocation demand after ETF listings, and compliance premium after being classified as a commodity in March. Its market cap essentially discounts "how many people can still remember this meme." This also explains its price structure: down about 90% from the $0.73 all-time high, down 66% in the past year, market cap shrunk from the peak to just over ten billion, yet its rank won't fall because the stock of attention remains. Likewise, its 24-hour trading volume consistently stays in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and this liquidity itself is the monetization of social consensus.
The core contradiction is: assets priced as "social currency" base their valuation on the persistence of sentiment, and sentiment is precisely the most non-depreciable yet hardest to predict factor in this market. Technical coins die gradually—you can see code updates stop and ecosystem fade; social coins die instantly—once the next meme takes over, the old meme quietly goes to zero. Dogecoin has lasted twelve years without dying, indicating it is not just ordinary air but has evolved into a "blue-chip of attention"—but this doesn't change its essence: what you buy is not the network but the probability that the crowd won't disperse. Holders should watch not the development roadmap but when the popularity curve turns. #$DOGE Made money but didn't treat me to breakfast, and still came to show off.
Doesn't matter, I broke even anyway. 😃
The little expert at breaking even is online!
Early in the morning, just past 7, still not awake, my friend sent a message showing off: "I got rich," "Love you so much, baby."
I stared at the screen for two seconds, alright, he stabbed my heart again.
So I deserve to be stuck, deserve to be your guiding light, right? 😭
But seriously, this wave of $SNDK is really fierce.
On August 5th, the earnings report came out: revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, earnings per share $39.25, all numbers exceeding expectations.
But the market just wouldn't buy it; after-hours trading after the report once dropped over 8%, and closed down 5.4% during regular trading on Wednesday.
Why? Because the next quarter's revenue guidance was below market expectations.
The market had already priced in everything; good performance became "good news fully priced in."
Those who had positioned early took advantage of the earnings window to concentrate their exits, a stampede of selling amplified the decline.
From a high of 1483 straight down to 1244, one bearish candle wiped out several days of gains.
I closed my short to break even, then reversed and opened a long at 1256.71.
My friend laughs at me for being a guiding light, so I'll keep being one; if I lose, at least I light the way for others. 😭
You say I'm a guiding light, so let me light you up a bit. 🧋😭
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
$BTC
$ETH "Speak only when you have something to say; don't force words when you don't."
SanDisk's latest earnings report significantly outperformed general market expectations overall, but the stock price declined in after-hours trading. This is more of a positive outcome being realized under high expectations and does not indicate a substantial deterioration in the company's fundamentals.
This quarter, the company achieved strong growth in revenue, adjusted earnings per share, and data center business, especially with data center segment revenue doubling quarter-over-quarter, confirming the real demand for enterprise storage driven by AI computing power construction. Meanwhile, the company increased stock repurchases, secured multiple long-term customer partnerships, supporting future cash flow and demand certainty.
The weakening market sentiment stems from two factors: before the earnings report, the market had already fully priced in optimistic performance expectations, and the company's mid-point revenue guidance for the next quarter is slightly below the market consensus. Additionally, this quarter's revenue growth mainly came from product price increases, with limited contribution from sales volume, prompting the market to reassess whether the current high prices and high gross margins can be sustained.
Over a longer timeframe, SanDisk's core logic targeting AI data center storage remains intact, so the long-term outlook remains optimistic. However, bullishness does not mean ignoring potential risks. Key areas to monitor going forward include data center business growth rate, product pricing trends, sales volume recovery, gross margin levels, and the next earnings guidance. If data center demand remains strong and revenue drivers shift from purely price increases to growth in both price and volume, this round of correction might be a healthy market re-pricing. #标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？