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The continuous rebound in U.S. Treasury yields this week is also somewhat related to the China-U.S. summit. The rumored Chinese business delegation accompanying the visit ultimately did not materialize, and after the talks, even a joint communiqué could not be issued. There was not much actual cooperation or consensus achieved between the two sides. The summit lacked incremental positive news, causing the market to lose momentum. Meanwhile, rising oil prices and interest rates directly pressured the market's decline on Monday. Especially from the current perspective, oil prices have not developed toward the best expected boundaries outlined in the third of the eight outcomes.
The relationship between China and U.S. Treasuries has also become a daily topic on various platforms. Simply put, after suffering a big loss in 2008, China has become smarter. With its national strength enhanced, it now has the qualification to say no. The annual trade surplus exceeding one trillion yuan no longer goes to buying U.S. Treasuries as before; instead, China has even turned to buying gold. Although China currently has no intention to replace the U.S. as the world's leader, it still needs to prepare accordingly.
This preparation has become an important driving force behind the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices.
Therefore, from a long-term perspective, buying gold on dips is a high-probability strategy.2026.9.25
Happy Mid-Autumn Festival!
Holiday dream, say whatever comes to mind series
Make a trade self-record & review & plan
First anchor your trading level & self-positioning: be a dumb money non-professional
trader. The bigger the trading level, the slower and safer~ the biggest opponent is
your own impatience & lack of patience.
026-
Self trading memo
: $BTC $ETH $XAU
Weekly level trading
Cost 2046
Target 4000 exit
:(Currently in an interest rate hike cycle, the macro environment does not meet the conditions for a new high bull trigger,
no gambling with money beyond understanding)
Position 10X occupying about 1/6 of principal
Actual leverage about 2X
There may be a sharp weekly level drop in the short term
Add bullets again only when the volume drop is fierce enough (at least need a very long and scary weekly bearish candle)
Only after encountering a large weekly bearish candle
is the entry point
Spend money on the blade's edge.
2026-09-28 10
Other times watch more, touch less
Before seeing a suitable entry opportunity
Add bullets again only when the volume drop is fierce enough (at least need a very long and scary weekly bearish candle)
Only after encountering a large weekly bearish candle
is the entry point
Spend money on the blade's edge.
Other times watch more, touch less
10+
Before seeing a suitable entry opportunity
28
Go more to sweep some hard currency spot, grab some risk-free wool (DeFi's currentAfter holding back all afternoon, $ETH finally surged with volume in the evening!
This wave directly shot up to 2680, finally breaking the stagnant slight fluctuations of the daytime. 🚀
Looking at the 15-minute chart, several consecutive solid bullish candles just broke through the dense moving average resistance zone from the day, with MA5 (2673) and MA10 (2663) quickly diverging upwards. The short-term bullish alignment pattern has finally formed.
However, note that the MA120 (2681) is right ahead, and the current price is just stuck near this level, serving as the first pressure test.
From the volume on the right side, this rally indeed has capital entering to support it, with a clear increase in trading volume, indicating it’s not a false move.
The MACD fast and slow lines are very likely forming a golden cross below the zero line, with the momentum bars turning red.
On the news front, Wintermute establishing a large position on Hyperliquid has also added fuel to the market.
Next, the key is to see if it can effectively hold above 2680 and break through the intraday high of 2693. If the pullback doesn’t break below 2660, the short-term bullish structure can be considered truly established.🚨 IMPORTANT: $ETH SHORTS ARE BEING CLOSED
Weeks of short positioning have now seen a major unwind, with 91% of those shorts closed in a single day.
That matters because this is not just a small change in positioning. It shows a significant shift in how traders are positioned after weeks of building short exposure.
Closing shorts does not automatically mean traders expect ETH to rally. But when suc at $ETH #HormuzTermsInFocus #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh 🚨 $ETH Bearish Watch｜Watch for resistance near 2670
ETH is currently facing pressure around $2,670, with short-term focus on whether sellers will suppress it again here.
📉 Short Entry: $2,675
🎯 TP1: $2,635
🎯 TP2: $2,605
🛑 SL: $2,735
If selling pressure persists in the $2,670–$2,700 range, the price may continue to retest lower support.
Meanwhile, ETH saw a net inflow of about $690 million into US spot ETFs last week, indicating ongoing institutional demand; however, ETH has repeatedly been resisted near $2,800, so short-term pullback pressure remains worth monitoring.
The key is not to chase shorts, but to observe the reaction near $2,670 + volume + OI.
Break below $2,635 → $2,605
Reclaim above $2,735 → bearish thesis invalidated
NFA. DYOR.
#ETH #Ethereum #Crypto #ETHUSDT Negative news flooding the screen, price resisting decline: Who is accumulating against the trend?
Recently, the market has shown an intriguing divergence: ZEC keeps facing negative news, exchanges frequently issue warnings, data is as cold as a deep bear market, yet the price has climbed steadily from $45 to above $58. Bad news is flying, prices are rising—this is not an illusion, but someone quietly accumulating amid the panic.
ZEC: 50 is not the ceiling, but the short sellers' stop-loss line
This week, ZEC tested 60 but failed to hold, then dipped back to 50 but was quickly pulled up. Now the price is fluctuating around 55; the longer the shakeout lasts, the more it looks like a consolidation before a rally. Once it breaks through 60, there's no need to wait for 70; the market will naturally aim for 80. The more negative news there is, the more it indicates that selling pressure comes from short-term sentiment traders, while the buyers are well-prepared funds.
BTC: Macro remains the anchor
Back to BTC, spot ETF inflows and outflows are tugging back and forth, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, debt pressure continues to rise, and macro liquidity is still the core variable determining BTC's direction. Short-term capital movements cannot change this anchor.
At this point, hands are more honest than the brain
· Watch: At least you don't lose;
· Stay out: At least you don't panic;
· Short: Ask yourself, are you seeing an opportunity, or just can't stand missing out?
The market is always open, but your principal is not an unlimited refill. In a volatile market, patience is more valuable than impulse.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#ZEC再创新高，估值重估受关注 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 The decline starting on Monday should be caused by two combined reasons:
1. The China-US summit did not produce results beyond expectations, and was even somewhat below expectations, so the positive news has been fully priced in and a pullback followed.
2. The short-term rate hike expectations were overplayed. Unlike the rising rate hike expectations before the September FOMC meeting, the probability of a rate hike before the October FOMC meeting is expected to be high at first and then lower, so the trend will likely fall from a short-term peak before rising again.
After all, looking around the market now, except for gold which is relatively cost-effective, other assets are not cheap, so a pullback is needed before continuing to rally.$BTC Evening of 9.28 (Bitcoin, Ethereum) Analysis
Currently, the market still shows no clear signal of a bottom, nor any strong bullish counterattack entry signals. This round of decline may have just begun. 82500 will not be the bottom, but only the first target during the downtrend. Bitcoin may further test the 80000‑81500 range, with potential for even deeper declines. Technically, after Bitcoin surged to 87300, daily rebounds have been on low volume, while declines continue with increasing volume, indicating bears clearly dominate. Price has repeatedly tested 85000 but failed to hold above it, showing weakening bullish momentum. Once 82200 is effectively broken, the market will open a downward range between 75000‑82200. The rise from 82200‑87300 will be considered a false breakout, and subsequent tests of 80000 or even lower are reasonable market behavior.
Multiple negative factors are simultaneously pressuring the market: the US-China meeting window often leads to pullbacks after positive news is priced in; over 300 million stolen from exchanges dampens market sentiment; the Fed's long-term rate hike expectations suppress risk assets; escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions amplify market volatility; plus central media statements opposing virtual currencies often serve as risk warnings (top escapes). The convergence of multiple bearish factors calls for caution about further market weakness.
Monday evening trading strategy
Bitcoin: Short near 83700-84200, target 82500
Ethereum: Short near 2690-2710, target 2630 Brothers, this week enters the "Data Week," and BTC, US stocks, and XAU gold all need to closely watch two major events: Nonfarm Payrolls + PCE.
First checkpoint: September 30, US August PCE.
PCE is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. If core inflation remains strong, the market will reinforce the "high interest rates lasting longer" trade, supporting US Treasury yields and the dollar, while high-duration risk assets like BTC, ETH, and $QQQ will face more pressure; conversely, if inflation cools down, risk assets will have room to breathe.
Second checkpoint: October 2, September Nonfarm Payrolls.
August Nonfarm added 162,000 jobs; the September data will determine whether the labor market is holding steady or weakening again. Besides new jobs, pay attention to the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings—especially wage growth, which directly affects inflation stickiness.
The key is not in individual data points but in the combined signals:
• High inflation + strong employment → maximum interest rate pressure, risk assets suffer the most;
• Falling inflation + weak employment → market more likely to price in easing expectations, giving crypto space to grow.
The direction of $BTC will most likely be decided only after both data points are released.
A couple of reminders for reference:
• The biggest taboo during Data Week is jumping the gun. Before PCE and Nonfarm are released, any spike followed by a drop could be a false move. Control your impulses and wait for the data; this is more important than trying to predict the data itself.
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 SOL gave back the weekend rebound at 124.96 on Monday; once 117.6 broke, the weekend bulls scattered the same day.
Yesterday's low was 120.1, high 125.0, closing at 121.8. Today opened near 121.8, with a high of 123.5 and a low of 117.6, current price around 118.2. Volume shrank from 88.52 million to 76.84 million, no buyers after the surge.
Resistance remains between 123.5 and 125.0; above that is 295.9. If 117.6 breaks again, 115.9 is likely the next target; if that doesn't hold, short-term price may seek space down to 112.5.
Short-term focus is whether the current price around 118.2 can hold. If it can't, treat it as a digestion after dropping from 125, and don't chase at this price. Those holding should watch if the low at 117.6 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and see if 123.5 can be surpassed before considering; don't catch a falling knife mid-air. $SOL Institutional funds no longer focus solely on Bitcoin: a broader crypto asset allocation is underway
Last week, the crypto fund market experienced a notable structural change—institutional funds are flowing into digital assets with unprecedented breadth.
Bitcoin funds attracted $2.4 billion in a single week, marking the largest weekly inflow since last October and driving the cumulative inflow for 2026 into positive territory for the first time. This alone is strong enough, but the more critical signal comes from beyond Bitcoin.
Ethereum funds recorded a net inflow of $689.9 million, completely reversing previous outflows. Solana funds absorbed $86.7 million in just one day on Friday, setting a single-day record. Meanwhile, Grayscale's Zcash fund surpassed the $1 billion mark before the split on September 30.
Four asset types, one direction. This is no longer a "Bitcoin solo" market; institutional allocation logic is extending to a broader spectrum of crypto assets. In the past, institutional entry was almost synonymous with buying BTC; now, $ETH, $SOL, and even ZEC are gaining independent capital narratives. Several drivers may be behind this: diversification of ETF channels, repricing of correlations among assets, and a deepening institutional understanding of "crypto beta."
When funds no longer flow to just one entry point, the market structure itself is changing. Bitcoin remains the gateway, but the rooms behind the door are increasing.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $CORE 503 errors and page resets are clear signals that the project team has effectively abandoned the project. They no longer disguise it as "technical maintenance" but have directly closed the user-facing access.
The judgment of Gate Plaza users is becoming reality: "The facade is still decorated to look shiny and bright, but the construction site behind has long been hastily locked up, busy cleaning up the mess." You have already safely withdrawn; what you are seeing now is just the moment when the last few lights in this building are turned off.That old man Saylor dropped another $143 million last week, buying 1,665 BTC at an average price of 85,681. 85,681, brothers, that's two or three thousand higher than the current market price, yet he keeps buying regardless. Look at the market here: funding rate at -0.3%, Wintermute opened $126 million short positions, Trump is still shouting about attacking Iran, gold is down, US stock futures are down, retail investors are scared out of their wits. But Saylor stays silent and keeps scooping up coins.
He now holds 847,700 BTC, worth $70.7 billion, with an average cost of 75,437, unrealized profit of 6.75 billion, and a return rate of 10.56%. Do the math: average cost 75,437, current price 82,700, even with this drop he's still in profit. You watch the market every day, chasing highs and selling lows, paying a ton in fees, and probably won't earn as much as he does just holding.
BTC is grinding at 82,700, ETH at 2,635, SOL at 117.89. Shorts are crowded, but Saylor's $70 billion spot holdings are the strongest backing. I don't chase shorts nor rush to bottom fish. His cost is 75,437; if it really drops to 75,000-76,000, I'll follow and buy some spot in batches, stop loss at 73,000. Buy ETH at 2,600-2,630, stop loss at 2,550. SOL is too weak, won't touch it.
He bought from 2020 to 2025, getting scolded all the way but making money all the way. Big money never looks at short-term fluctuations; you panic sell, they pick up chips.Brothers, today's market in one word: brutal.
The entire market is falling. BTC, ETH, OKB, DOGE, even stock tokens are all red. BTC dropped below 84000, ETH below 2650.
But the reason isn't in the crypto space, it's in Washington.
The Federal Reserve interest rate is held at 3.75%-4.00%, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.1%, the highest since 2007. When the risk-free rate rises, all non-yielding assets get hit—the crypto market is just the one caught in the crossfire.
The on-chain story is even more painful. Brother Maji reduced his BTC longs today, losing 1.42 million in the past 24 hours. His BTC, ETH, and HYPE longs all turned to losses, with a total unrealized loss exceeding 1.32 million. Just a few days ago, he had an unrealized profit of 5.66 million, which vanished in the blink of an eye. HYPE is even worse; one address was liquidated for 11,796 tokens, worth 1.06 million.
In the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated 192 million, 82,000 people got taken out, longs and shorts both slaughtered, no one escaped.
I haven't moved.
This kind of macro-driven sell-off, cutting at the bottom is the dumbest move. Wait until the panic is digested.
How's your account today? Let's chat in the comments.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 I still hold a short position on $ZEC, bearish in the long term. As a veteran privacy coin, its narrative and survival space are continuously being squeezed under tightening regulations.
The current price is 1583, with a slight unrealized loss in the account. Using 5x low leverage, the liquidation price is 3230, which leaves ample room from the current price. There is no short-term risk of liquidation, providing enough time to wait for the logic to play out.
On the broader market level, $BTC and $ETH have short-term correction needs, with insufficient incremental funds and technicals requiring a shakeout. Continuing to hold the $ZEC short position, patiently waiting for $ETH to pull back to present a layout opportunity.DOGE dropped from 0.0921 on Monday, unable to reach 0.10 over the weekend, and opened directly lower.
Yesterday's low was 0.0953, high was 0.0989, closing at 0.0969. Today it opened around 0.0969, with a high of 0.0978 and a low of 0.0921, current price about 0.0931. Volume shrank from 42.15 million to 38 million, indicating selling pressure downward.
Resistance remains between 0.0969 and 0.0989, with further resistance from 0.1044 to 0.1059 above. If 0.0921 breaks, the price is likely to test 0.0912 first; if that level also fails, the short-term target could drop to 0.0856 to find support.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 0.0931 can hold. If it doesn't hold, consider it an accelerated correction from 0.1059 downward and avoid chasing at this price. For holders, watch if the low of 0.0921 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and see if 0.0978 can be surpassed before considering entry; avoid catching a falling knife mid-air. $DOGE 这次真的没什么好抱怨的。 不是市场欠我机会，而是自己的贪心把原本到手的利润，一点点变成了亏损。 📉 BTC：高位承压，短线进入震荡防守阶段 BTC 从前期 $87K附近高点 回落后，买盘明显没有之前强势。当前市场更关注 $83K–$84K 一带能否形成有效支撑。 如果这里能够稳住，后续仍有机会重新测试 $85K–$87K 区域； 但如果继续跌破 $82.5K，短线可能进一步向 $80K附近 寻找支撑。 🟢 ZEC：波动比BTC更加剧烈 ZEC 前期冲高后回落，山寨币的高波动特征再次体现出来。 这种行情最大的教训就是： 涨的时候容易觉得还能更高，跌的时候才发现仓位已经太重。 📰 市场新闻面也在增加不确定性 目前市场仍然受到美联储利率路径、ETF资金流向以及整体风险偏好的影响。随着高位资金开始重新评估风险，BTC一旦出现明显回撤，部分高Beta山寨币往往会承受更大的波动压力。 所以这次我给自己记住一个教训： 开仓之前，不只要想“能赚多少”，还必须先想“最多能亏多少”。 以后开仓后： ✅ 先设置止损 ✅ 提前确定止盈区域 ✅ 不因为浮盈扩大就无限提高预期 ✅ 不因为亏损就不断补仓 ✅ ETH is at 2718, making short entry quite cost-effective. Technical: Heavy selling pressure in the resistance zone, rebound is a bearish opportunity. In the $2722 to $2822 range, over 13.3 million ETH have been traded, making it the thickest cluster in recent times. Every time the price rebounds to this range, it is suppressed back. Last week, ETH surged to $2786, just a breath away from the 2800 threshold, but ultimately failed to hold and fell back to around 2660. The above range between 2700 and 2800 is a clear selling pressure zone, and 2718 is just stuck at the lower edge of this resistance zone. A rebound here is naturally a bearish entry point. The key support below is at $2580; if it breaks below, the next target is $2450. News: ETFs are buying, but prices aren't rising, indicating stronger selling pressure. Last week, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $690 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone contributing $326 million. Institutional funds are indeed flowing in, but ETH's price has never effectively broken through 2800. What does this indicate? It means ETF buying is being absorbed by selling near the September high, with bulls buying but unable to hold on. More notably, a whale sold 42,005 ETH worth about $112 million in the OTC market. This whale had been accumulating money but quickly exited after chasing the rally, casting doubt on the sustainability of this rally. Capital flow: Bulls are extremely crowded, with high risk of reverse harvesting. The ETH long-short ratio has already reached Trader $CORE
⛓️ 这对你的资产意味着什么？
页面打不开，不代表你的币在链上消失了。这里需要区分两种情况：
1. CLTV质押的比特币（时间锁）
你的比特币锁定在比特币主网的时间锁脚本里，它不依赖CORE的前端页面。理论上，锁定期满后，你仍然可以通过比特币钱包直接花掉它。但前提是，你当初质押时是通过官方页面操作的，而赎回通常需要项目方中继节点配合签名。如果中继节点也随前端一起关闭，普通用户会面临技术上有币、操作上取不出的困境。
2. 质押的CORE币
这部分资产的状态更为脆弱。如果前端和节点服务全部停止，你将无法通过任何官方界面查看、解除质押或赎回CORE。你只会看到一串“冰冷得数字”，无法转账、无法提现、无法交易。 CoinMarketCap has changed its CEO, with the product head promoted and the former CEO moving to lead new business for the group. For newcomers, the key point here is not the personnel change but the data source itself.
CMC is the first stop for many people to check coin prices and rankings. Whoever controls this entry point controls what newcomers see and who they see first. The promotion of the product head is more likely explained by the group's intention to integrate the traffic entry with trading scenarios, though there is no direct evidence of this step yet.
To judge the direction, one can focus on one point: whether CMC's rankings and display positions start to tilt towards a particular exchange. If there is a noticeable change within three months, it indicates this personnel change is not a routine rotation.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $HYPE The meme coin trade has quietly split into two markets, and the gap explains why so many portfolios bleed even when the charts look green. $DOGE, $SHIB and $PEPE still command the liquidity and recognition that random launches can only imitate — but recognition is not the same as durability, and the crowd keeps pricing the two as if they were. The distinction that matters now is structural, not sentimental. $DOGE carries the longest history and the widest name recognition in the category, which Brothers, let me share my emotional journey with $ZEC.
I previously did several swing trades on ZEC, with wins and losses. The last time I entered, I got stuck, and since then I've been holding through it all.
During this time, I've been closely watching ZEC's trend. After enduring so long, I finally see a glimmer of hope for breaking even.
I won't speak about the long term, but $1700 is very likely the short-term peak for this wave. If it breaks below $1600 today, it might fall below $1500 tomorrow.
So at this point, it's definitely not the time to go long.
If this wave really manages to break even smoothly, I'll give away 50 servings of pork knuckle rice in the comments, promise kept.
A heartfelt note for reference:
• "Breaking even" and "making money" are two different things. If your current goal is to break even, the core logic is "preserve your capital," not "take another gamble." Don't fall into the trap of wanting to hold on for more after breaking even—that's a common point where people get stuck again.
• Breaking below a level isn't necessarily a signal to short. When you say "break $1600 today, look at $1500 tomorrow," that's a trend projection, not a call to chase shorts at this level. Support below, position size, and liquidation lines are always more important than the price point itself.
• Holding through a position to break even is luck, but more importantly, a lesson. Just because you managed to hold this time doesn't mean you will next time. I suggest reviewing carefully where the "last swing trade" went wrong after breaking even—that's more valuable than pork knuckle rice.
Wishing all brothers a smooth break-even this wave. I'll have a virtual serving of pork knuckle rice first.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $CORE These screenshots mark a significant milestone signaling the end of the CORE project. The official staking page shows a 503 error, all data has reset to zero, indicating that the project team has abandoned even the most basic maintenance, and the frontend service is shutting down.
🔧 What does "503 error" mean?
503 Service Unavailable has a very clear technical meaning: the server received the request but cannot process it.
This is not a "network lag" or "browser issue," but a deliberate stop of response from the server side. Combined with your previous observation of "nodes gradually dropping out," the most direct explanation is: the project team may have stopped paying server fees or actively shut down the API interface.
Users on Gate Plaza have already discovered that the LFG-Swap domain in the CORE ecosystem fails to resolve, the webpage is completely inaccessible, and the on-chain core DEX has also crashed. This is the same issue as the staking website collapse you saw: the infrastructure maintaining the project is being shut down one by one. RWA is entering a new phase.
Previously, when people discussed RWA, the focus was more on:
How to move traditional assets onto the blockchain.
But recently, Ondo launched a tokenized portfolio based on BlackRock's strategy, which has shifted the market's attention to another direction:
In the future, the blockchain may not only record assets but also support the operation of more traditional financial products.
In the past, portfolios needed to be configured through different channels, but now the industry is exploring how to use blockchain technology to make the management of financial products more transparent and efficient.
I believe this is more worth paying attention to than simply moving a certain type of asset onto the chain.
Because the real competition in RWA may not be about who can issue more assets, but who can combine mature product design and management experience from traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure.
If this direction continues to develop, the connection between blockchain and traditional finance may give rise to more new forms in the future.
#Ondo推出基于贝莱德策略的代币化投资组合 Been on a roller coaster for several days. Bitcoin dropped today but now a single candlestick has pushed it back up. The 2630 level is hard to break. Last week I mentioned there's support around 2650, and it's still hovering near that 2650 area. I'm very bullish, but now is not the time to act. Based on previous early bull market trends, I think there might still be some room to go lower, ideally between 2570 and 2450. Of course, 2650 is also fine, but opening long positions now carries higher risk. Last week I made some impulsive trades due to human nature and suffered significant drawdown. Currently, I still have one position open, and without a clear plan, I'll just hold it for now. Bitcoin is holding above $84,000 while $ZEC trades near $1,665 and $FIL fights to stay above $0.90 — and that divergence, not Bitcoin's calm, is the real story heading into the final stretch of Q3. $BTC around $84,700 looks like stability, but it is stability with a ceiling. Institutional demand and spot trading are doing the support work, yet the chart has not confirmed short-term momentum: reclaim $85,000 and the door opens toward $85,000–$87,000; lose the $83,000–$84,000 shelf and sellers getAccount Position Divergence Radar
$GRT: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top account long-short ratio is 1.347, top position long-short ratio is 0.901; overall market account long-short ratio is 4.849; price increased by 1.82%, position amount changed by +1.16%.
$DOGE: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top account long-short ratio is 1.659, top position long-short ratio is 0.759; overall market account long-short ratio is 3.616; price decreased by 0.07%, position amount changed by +0.27%.
$PEPE: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top account long-short ratio is 1.098, top position long-short ratio is 0.778; overall market account long-short ratio is 2.767; price decreased by 0.30%, position amount changed by -0.15%.
GRT, DOGE, PEPE: The side with the majority of accounts is opposite to the side with the majority of positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution; the overall market account structure is biased towards long positions, which also differs from the bias in top positions. Hold losses like a diamond, dump profits like hot potatoes. 🤡
If I don’t donate, who will? 😂
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus Brothers, evening quick report!
$ZEC super whale has made a move again——
The largest ZEC short seller has added another 5,000 coins, currently holding a total of 35,000 coins, with a position value of about 55 million USD.
Interestingly, after this round of adding positions, the unrealized loss has narrowed to 1.88 million USD, and the average opening price has been raised to 1,494 USD.
Let's break down this data simply:
• Average price moving up = lowering the cost basis by holding the position. Judging from the average opening price, this whale is adding more as the price falls, continuously supplementing, pushing the cost down bit by bit.
• Unrealized loss is only 1.88 million, compared to a position size of 55 million, the pressure is very small, indicating he is now very close to breaking even.
• Adding 5,000 coins is a clear short-term signal to the market—the main short force is still active and not planning to give up.
A reminder: the whale's position direction and retail investors' holding strategies are often opposite. Don't blindly short just because he adds shorts, and don't assume the bulls are safe just because his unrealized loss narrows.
You still need to follow your own rhythm in the market: liquidation line, position size, and trend are always more important than "what others are doing."
Wish brothers steady tonight, and some profits to enjoy. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 四只ETF同时转正，我差点以为看错了数据 你有多久没见过主流币一起被买了？ 上周翻ETF流向的时候，手指停了一下。BTC净流入23.9亿美元不稀奇，真正让我坐直的是ETH的6.8988亿、SOL的1.8822亿，连XRP都有7559万。四个资产，四周连续正流入，这不是某一支独舞。 我第一反应不是兴奋，是警觉。因为单看BTC流入，你永远分不清这是加密回暖，还是美股风险偏好外溢的副产品。但当ETH和SOL同步被吸筹，叙事就变了。资金在给整个板块重新定价，而不是只买最安全的那个。 这里面有个被忽略的细节：ETH的流入量级放在历史上不算小，它意味着配置型资金开始接受"BTC之外也有值得持有的beta"。SOL和XRP能分到份额，说明风险曲线在往下走，愿意承担更高波动去换取弹性。情绪层面，这比价格涨多少更重要。 偏多的路径很清楚。ETF通道是慢钱，慢钱连续四周不撤，往往代表背后有再平衡需求，而不是短线博弈。一旦BTC稳住，ETH和SOL的补涨会带动山寨情绪，市场从防守切向进攻。这种时候，节奏比选币更关键。 但风险也藏在这份漂亮数据里。四周正流入已经被市场部分计价，如果接下来宏观数据让降息预期降温9.28 Intelligence: $BTC closed above the May high, technically bullish, but less than 1% from the high, almost standing still! Historically, after breaking through the 50-week moving average (like in 2019 and 2023), it usually rises 20%-30% within 1-2 weeks, but this round's increase is obviously weaker. The market worries about seasonal weakness and continuously rising yields. Previously, I predicted weakness in Q4, but BTC's continued strength makes me reconsider. Future analysis will reduce sAI is a game changer, can interest rate hikes really curb capital investment?
$META big shot Bill Ackman directly called out the Federal Reserve, warning that this round of rate hikes might backfire and be a wasted effort!
According to the old rules, when the Fed raises rates, borrowing costs go up, companies cut spending and investment shrinks, which gradually brings down prices.
But now it's different. The AI arms race is fierce. Those tech giants, even with higher borrowing costs, are still pouring huge amounts of money into building data centers and buying computing power. A bit more expensive interest can't stop their AI investments.
As a result, the effect of rate hikes to suppress investment is greatly diminished. What's worse, the high interest costs eventually get passed down through layers to goods and services, actually pushing prices up and preventing inflation from falling.
The data shows that the major tech giants are estimated to have spent at least 650 billion this year on AI, and global AI spending is still skyrocketing. The AI boom has directly changed the logic of the old monetary policy.
Many economists also believe that raising rates now is a wrong move.
This news will impact the stock and crypto markets. Originally, rate hikes were bearish for assets, but now that logic is disrupted, making the market more prone to volatile swings. $NVDA $SNDK
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 "Just liquidated and then it rebounds, is the market maker watching my few hundred dollars?" Understand the liquidation traps of high-leverage contracts!
This screenshot reveals the feelings of countless high-leverage contract traders — entered long $AKE at 0.0341, held for several days, but today "just hit the liquidation price" and got forcibly liquidated, then the price immediately sharply rebounded!
💥 Why does it always "rise right after you sell, pump right after you liquidate"?
1. ⚠️ 20x leverage has an extremely low margin for error: 20x leverage means that if the price moves 5% against you, your margin will be wiped out. In small market cap tokens with intense shakeouts, a 5% move can happen in seconds!
2. 🎯 Liquidity Hunt (Liquidation Hunt): The liquidation prices and stop-loss orders of high-leverage retail traders often cluster just below key support levels. The main market makers only need to slightly push the price down to trigger a chain of liquidations, absorb liquidity, and then easily pump the price.
3. 📉 Volatility shakeout "long-short double kill": For tokens like $AKE that dip a bit and then strongly rebound, the volatility is huge; chasing longs gets liquidated by spikes, shorting gets squeezed by rebounds.
💡 Trading insight: Market makers aren’t watching your small orders, but algorithms are watching the market’s concentrated liquidation "liquidity pools"! Stay away from high leverage and set hard stop losses — that’s the key to survival!
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 DFDV bought another 47,700 $SOL last week, pushing its holdings to 2.538 million tokens, valued at approximately $309 million.
Market makers seeing this announcement don't immediately think it's bullish; they do the math: a week-on-week increase of only 2%, a cumulative 10% increase since the August 12 earnings report, 226,000 tokens sounds like a lot, but spread over seven weeks it's actually quite flat.
More importantly, where is the money coming from? The $300 million CHAD ATM is a financing channel, not cash flow from operations, meaning they are exchanging equity for tokens, then using those tokens to support the balance sheet.
In the past, these token-hoarding companies relied on issuing shares at a premium, but now with premiums narrowing and financing costs rising, the pace of accumulation will only slow down.
So this 2% is not a signal of acceleration, but a signal of maintenance.
Within the circle, people still treat "a listed company continuously buying" as a narrative to support the price, but who has calculated how many shares it needs to sell each quarter to sustain this burden?
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 #ARK将13亿美元风投基金代币化 $SOL Brothers, I have closed my position. This wave of long HBAR positions has smoothly hit the first take-profit point, securing the gains.
Actually, I explained the logic clearly in my post this afternoon. The IBM partnership news is indeed strong, but on-chain data clearly shows whales are using the good news to offload their holdings. Big players have sold over a hundred million tokens, and the resistance above is full of trapped positions. If you don't exit now, are you going to wait for the price to crash and give back all your profits?
Also, with 50x leverage, take the big profit and run—don't be greedy. In short-term trading, only the profits you have realized count; unrealized gains are just numbers. I will keep holding my spot positions, but I’m pocketing the profits from this short-term trade first.
Next, PCE and non-farm payroll data are about to be released consecutively, and macro uncertainty is very high. I’m going to stay out of the market and wait for the data to come in, protecting my principal and profits, then look for the next opportunity once the direction is clear. $HBAR $SKHYNIX 1300, still undervalued.
$SNDK : 1700, target 2400.
Micron: 1082, forward PE 6.9x.
Memory: still rising.
US Treasury yield: 5.2%.
Oil price: above 100.
A sector that profits from price increases, continuing to raise prices in a country where interest rates are getting more expensive.
The romance of cyclical stocks lies here—they don't care about the president's mood, only whether you have inventory.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus Don't rush to go long! Wait for the whales to be cleared before talking about getting in Brothers, don't be anxious. There might still be a short-term dip, the overall trend is still bullish, but timing is more important than direction. The current market looks more like "first kill leverage, then pull the market." $ETH has about $32.12 million whale long positions accumulated between 2614 and 2632, with the densest liquidation line near 2613. Short-term focus on 2630, then 2622 and 2614; if bro$ATOM ATOM buyback and burn creates structural buying pressure.
The revised Osmosis merger proposal clearly cancels the new ATOM minting and instead uses Osmosis DEX protocol revenue to repurchase ATOM on the open market, with a total scale limit within 2.5% of the total supply. If implemented, this will create a deflationary buyback mechanism for ATOM for the first time, forming a structural and continuous buying pressure in the market.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $ETH showed a typical high-level correction trend today. Multiple attempts to test the key resistance above during the day failed to form an effective breakout. After the bulls' momentum quickly weakened, the market entered a continuous oscillating downward rhythm. The price remained below the short-term moving averages throughout the day, with no strong rebound to recover lost ground. The overall decline was moderate and showed no signs of a volume-driven breakdown.
Looking at the daily chart over a longer period, the overall bullish trend framework of ETH has not been broken. The mid-term upward logic remains solid. Only after consecutive short-term rallies has the upward momentum completely exhausted, and there is an inherent technical need for a pullback and correction.
Several key positive anomalies appeared during this round of decline: the proportion of locked ETH staking addresses on-chain slightly increased; the single-day net inflow of $ETH spot ETFs did not stop; the long-short ratio on exchange contracts remained relatively balanced throughout, with no large concentrated short-selling attacks, indicating that bears did not seize the opportunity to launch an active offensive. The control of the adjustment remains firmly in the hands of the bulls.
This is a very typical shakeout action during an uptrend cycle, digesting previously accumulated floating positions and repairing overbought technical indicators through a moderate pullback, providing a safe entry window for funds that previously missed out. As long as the core daily support is not broken with heavy volume, this adjustment is a healthy consolidation, and traders have no need to panic and short at the current level. #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 There are more L2s now; does that mean Ethereum is handing over its business?
This doubt is reasonable and needs to be answered separately. L2s take on more execution, so some transaction fees on the mainnet might be diverted; but if they still use Ethereum's settlement and data services, the business hasn't completely left the ETH ecosystem. The question is through which channels ecosystem growth ultimately translates into $ETH demand.
I don't agree with resolving the controversy by simply comparing it to using one store versus an entire mall. L2s have their own operating income, user entry points, and competitive strategies, while Ethereum plays the role of settlement, security, and shared liquidity. The value created at different stages won't automatically be distributed proportionally to the same asset; we must observe the actual fees and capital flows.
The Ethereum Foundation's discussion this year on the relationship between L1 and L2 also emphasized the capabilities and differentiation of the two layers. Mainnet scaling and L2 development are not mutually exclusive. A stronger mainnet can provide a better foundation, while L2s can explore different applications, but smooth collaboration still requires improvements in engineering and economic mechanisms.
So, I am bullish on ETH, but I wouldn't say that all L2 successes necessarily translate into price increases. What’s worth tracking is whether they continue to rely on mainnet services, bring in new users and capital, and whether demand growth can keep pace with resource supply. Acknowledging that this transmission chain needs verification doesn't weaken the viewpoint; rather, it helps avoid mistaking ecosystem prosperity for realized profits.📰Bill Ackman: Fed rate hikes may backfire, AI capital expenditure weakens tightening effect
On 9.28, Ackman bluntly stated that the Fed's 25bp rate hike to 3.75%‑4.00% might be a mistake.
In the AI arms race, tech giants continue to massively invest in computing power and data centers despite rising financing costs, offsetting the investment suppression effect of rate hikes; high interest rates also transmit to prices, pushing up inflation.
Bridgewater: The four major tech giants will invest at least $650 billion in AI this year
Gartner: Global AI spending will reach $2.7 trillion in 2026, up 49.5% year-over-year
Moody's economists also believe rate hikes are inappropriate at this time; to push inflation back to 2%, either AI investment must be constrained or other economic sectors severely damaged.
US inflation remains above 2%, CME shows a 64% probability of a rate hike in October.
⚠️ Information compiled, not investment advice
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
$BTC $ETH $ZEC I originally thought the pullback would reach Ethereum's EMA20, but it only pulled back to EMA5. Several trades this week have been a bit off. Mainly, I missed two recent double-up trades. Later, when I increased risk, it coincided with the pullback to EMA5. This platform's copy trading is also frustrating; the promising CC couldn't open copy trades. Originally, the two big trades, CC and ETHFi, could have been above 1200u by now. Moving forward, I can only do left-side trading with small positions for ultra-short-term recovery. Ethereum might need to pull back to EMA20 later. The recovery and the subsequent doubling period will have to be extended. Let's see if it can reach 2000u before the New Year. To prevent risk control triggered by the EMA20 pullback from slowing progress, I'll wait for the pullback to finish and the market to fully FOMO before increasing risk again. Trading is like this: when the market comes, increasing risk can easily multiply the account several times a day, but after short-term FOMO ends, account losses accelerate. Currently, 620u is exactly 6 times... The overall market has weakened, as expected it failed to reclaim 85374, the short-term pattern is weakening, and the 4-hour level correction has officially started.
Focus on the 81800~81350 range below, the core bottom area at the 4-hour level is around 79500, and there is also the possibility of stopping the decline and forming a bottom at the 80000 whole number level.
Short-term resistance has shifted down to 83000 and 83500.
For those afraid of missing out, keep your position light and build up in batches. For example, only allocate 1/10 of your position when reaching the target, and add a small position of 1/20 in the 82X area. Space out the replenishment intervals, consider adding again after a 2000-point gap, and avoid frequent additions.
An interesting point is that the timing of this round of decline highly overlaps with 2024, also starting on September 27, and the previous round fell continuously until October 4. But this decline is faster, and it is unlikely to replicate last year's long decline cycle.
Regarding short positions: the 87000-85000 range is not suitable for long-term short positions, as both price and timing are not ideal. You can wait for the first bullish engulfing signal on the 4-hour chart, then after a pullback to the bottom with a higher low, gradually exit short positions in batches.
The 4 PM candlestick also shows that the rumored concentrated squeeze on Bitcoin only produced a 400-point long wick. The actual retail volume is much weaker than expected.
In horizontal comparison, Bitcoin's resistance to decline today is actually better than gold, which is considered a good performance.
The daily chart shows continuous decline at a relatively fast pace, and it is likely to enter a consolidation phase for digestion next, not necessarily replicating last year's decline until October 4.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $ZEC
ZEC has accumulated a large amount of short-term floating profits after consecutive rallies. Without new positive catalysts, short-term bulls are choosing to take profits in batches.
Looking at the market: BTC is fluctuating, and the ZEC/BTC trading pair continues to decline. This indicates that funds are exchanging ZEC for BTC; it’s not panic selling but profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.
It’s not that the market is no longer afraid; rather, the current round of ZEC bulls do not want to endure high volatility in the short term and choose to realize profits and flow back to mainstream assets.
The fundamental narrative remains intact, and ETF funds are still flowing in steadily, representing a normal pullback and digestion after a big rise.
Key observation point: whether the recent key support can hold. If it holds, this is just a correction during the upward trend; if it breaks down effectively, the short-term bullish trend will temporarily pause.
Many traders tend to confuse ZEC’s market characteristics: in the short term, it is an ETF-themed coin, not purely a safe-haven asset.
Don’t assume ZEC will definitely fall just because the broader market stops falling. You need to see whether funds are rebalancing or completely abandoning this narrative.
Crypto assets are highly volatile; this market review does not constitute investment advice It was dropping nicely, so why the V-shaped rebound?
$ETH dropped down to 2633.
It looked like it was about to crash further.
But then a single candle shot it back up to 2684.
That one rebound pinned me down hard.
I opened a short at 2660.56.
Now the mark price is 2684.9.
Floating loss is -91%, only 26 dollars of principal left holding on.
Liquidation price is set at 2787, just 100 dollars away from the current price.
Is it just this 20U?
If I don’t short, you won’t go up, right?
Checked the news, got even more pissed.
Spot ETF had a net inflow of 2.4 billion last week.
Strategy added another 95 BTC.
Oil price at 105, US bonds broke 5%, rate hike probability soared to 75%.
Macro conditions are clearly crushing everything.
Yet institutions are holding real money and forcibly propping up the market.
When it dropped to 2633, I was still thinking I could make some lunch money.
Turned around, and the candlestick showed a dry-land spring onion shoot.
$BTC joined the party too, pulling from 82561 to 83424.
Everything on screen is rising, only I’m taking the hit.
Looking at -91% in my account, I lost all temper.
Cut it, afraid it would crash immediately.
Don’t cut, it’s about to explode.
It was dropping nicely, why go back up?
Do you have to drain all my margin to be satisfied?The Coinbase depth chart is quite clear, with buy orders significantly stronger than sell orders.
BTC rose 3.83%, with sell orders totaling 173 BTC.
But if BTC falls 3.83%, that is above 80000, there are buy orders totaling 503 BTC.
Just afraid of Trump or Iran causing a crash, not daring to bottom-fish or play LP?
$CRCL $78~100,
$MSTR $140~195,
If it oscillates, just hold to earn trading fees.
If a one-sided upward trend appears, stop LP and hold the remaining coins.
If it falls, I will continue to chase the rise, currently my position is not high.
No wonder blockchain and Web3 are really useful! In the real US stock market, where is this kind of play?$SPARK's trend is really quite good. I bought quite a lot before to get its NFT.
Now the increase is almost doubled, I am quite optimistic about this project and will continue to hold on for the NFT.ZEC has surged to 1700? I'm actually hesitant to chase now.
Seeing ZEC rally all the way to 1700 dollars, many are shouting that the spring of privacy coins has arrived and urging to jump in. Honestly, after watching this, I feel uneasy.
Why? Because the sharper the rise, the harsher the correction. ZEC has nearly quadrupled from its low point in this run. Chasing in now is very likely to be buying the top.
My own strategy: I have already sold half of my ZEC bought at low prices, and I’m holding the remaining half to observe. If it falls below 1500, I’ll exit completely. It’s not that I’m bearish on privacy coins, but the risk-reward ratio at this level isn’t favorable.
Of course, I’m not saying ZEC has peaked; it might or might not have. But for someone with my position size, after such a big rise, I want to lock in profits. For those who haven’t entered yet, don’t rush—wait for a correction.
What do you think ZEC can reach this time? Is 1700 the top?
$ZEC $ATOM's path to breaking inflation has already appeared
ATOM is transitioning from an "inflationary" to a "deflationary" model but is still in the early stages. In August 2026, Cosmos Hub switched to a fee-based buyback and burn model. The Osmosis merge proposal also eliminated new ATOM minting, replacing it with DEX protocol revenue used to buy back ATOM on the open market, capped at 2.5% of the total supply. Osmosis fee infrastructure includes a triple burn mechanism: Taker Fee Burns, ProtoRev Burns, and non-ATOM fee buybacks and burns—the latter two directly purchase ATOM on the market and permanently remove it from circulation.
If these mechanisms operate fully, they will directly offset or even exceed current inflation emissions. But the trigger condition is: the Hub must generate sufficient transaction volume and fee revenue.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $BTC
Short squeeze soon.
With the recent dump in price, we saw longs unwinding while spot CVD stayed relatively flat.
With today’s selloff, both spot CVD and CVD are declining while open interest is rising again.
This looks like late shorts getting overconfident.
If they continue shorting the lows this aggressively, we will see another OI flush soon.