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The real driver behind this round of gold's rise is not risk aversion, but the repricing of "stagflation + interest rate path."
In July, U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, far below the market expectation of +80,000, and the previous two months were revised down by a total of 103,000. The sudden cooling in employment directly weakens the rate hike logic. Gold surged from about $4080 at the beginning of August to a high of $4435 today, with a weekly gain of over 6%.
But now the biggest variable has changed: oil prices are rising again.
Energy prices rise → inflation risk increases → U.S. Treasury yields rise. Currently, the market's pricing for a September rate hike has risen again from 44% to about 52%, which is also why gold pulled back after the surge.
The real showdown is on August 12 at 20:30 with the CPI release.
If CPI is weak: real interest rate pressure decreases, giving gold a chance to retest 4435 and extend toward 4500;
If CPI is strong: rate hike trades return, making it easier for gold to see profit-taking at high levels.
Gold is now trading not on inflation itself, but on "which deteriorates faster, inflation or growth."
Weak growth + controlled inflation is most bullish for gold;
Weak growth + uncontrolled inflation will lead the market into a true stagflation battle. $XAU #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ NVIDIA has brought in Wall Street's six biggest "money houses" (BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, etc.) to create a massive $500 billion (about ¥3.5 trillion) treasury. This money is specifically lent to companies wanting to develop AI.
What's clever about this move? And why did the stock price actually drop?
The clever part: they lend money to customers, but the customers can only use the money to buy NVIDIA chips. The money makes a full circle back into Jensen Huang's pocket.
The market worries: isn't this like "a developer lending money to homebuyers, who then buy the developer's own houses"? People fear this might be a bubble.
Moreover, Jensen Huang hinted that if customers really can't repay, he's willing to cover 25% of the losses. So when investors heard this, they rushed to exit, causing the stock price to drop 3%.
3. So, how big is this really?
It's very big. Because the six Wall Street giants aren't fools; their willingness to put up money shows that in their eyes, AI graphics cards are no longer just "electronic components" but something as reliable as a "power plant."
In the future, NVIDIA won't just sell graphics cards but will turn them into "rental assets" (charging for computing power like utilities monthly).
In summary: Jensen Huang wants to transform graphics cards from "fast-moving consumer goods" into "financial products," playing together with the world's smartest financial tycoons.
In the short term, the market fears a bubble, but in the long term, the financial giants have already bet real money that AI is the "new infrastructure" for the coming decades.While browsing ChainCatcher today, I saw a piece of news that made me rub my eyes and read it again. South Korea's People Power Party lawmaker Jung Sung-guk has officially submitted a "Partial Amendment to the Income Tax Act," proposing to postpone the virtual asset income tax originally scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027, by three years, pushing it to 2030. You read that right. This is not a consultation or a draft; it has already been submitted to the National Assembly. This came quite suddenly. Just a week ago, South Korea confirmed that from 2027, crypto gains would be taxed at a 22% rate, with an annual tax exemption of only 2.5 million KRW—roughly just over $1,800 at the current exchange rate. Any amount exceeding this would be taxed at 22%. I did the math: if you made 100 million KRW (about $72,000) trading crypto in South Korea, you'd owe over 21 million KRW in taxes on the amount exceeding the exemption. Earning $70K and paying $15K in tax—who can bear that? Jung Sung-guk explained the reason for the delay with a straightforward statement: "Rushing to tax before improving investor protection systems and a fair tax foundation will weaken South Korea's Web3 industry's global competitiveness and push funds to unregulated overseas platforms." In plain terms: the tax office wants to collect money, but if everyone runs away, they end up collecting nothing. The trigger for this is quite clear—the trading volume on South Korea's five major exchanges has collapsed by 55% in half a year. The market was already cold, and adding a 22% tax salt to the wound is not taxation; it's driving people away. After the news broke, South Korean cryptoThe biggest change in AI may not be the next generation of GPUs, but that Wall Street is finally starting to finance "computing power" like electricity.
On August 10, NVIDIA reached strategic cooperation agreements with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to establish an independent AI computing power financing platform, aiming to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital long-term. Jensen Huang stated that NVIDIA itself can provide up to about $125 billion in support for related transactions.
The signal behind this is very important.
This year, large tech companies' AI capital expenditures are expected to exceed $730 billion. GPUs are just the entry point; what really needs to be built is the entire "AI factory": GPUs, HBM, optical interconnects, switching chips, storage, power, cooling, and data centers are all indispensable.
This means AI is upgrading from "CapEx in the tech industry" to a long-term infrastructure asset similar to energy, telecommunications, and highways.
Data centers, power, and cooling will see the second phase of capital diffusion.
The real big trend may not be "who sells the most GPUs."
Rather—
In the next decade, whoever controls the ability to build, connect, and finance AI factories will control the most critical toll booths of the AI era. $SNDK #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 Fundamental Research Report $NIO / NIO (NYSE·Chinese Concept New Energy Vehicle) $4.82 (24h +1.69%)
To put it simply: NIO ($NIO) has a comprehensive score of 63/100, with a rating of narrative outweighing execution. The business fundamentals mainly rely on external paid services, and the market cap to revenue multiple remains within a reasonable range.
First, looking at the company: NIO ($NIO) is listed on the NYSE, in the Chinese concept new energy vehicle sector. Simply put: NIO battery swapping. Competitors include LI and XPEV. Business growth depends on order deliveries and market share expansion, with the core focus on whether revenue growth and gross margin match the intensity of capital expenditures. Macroeconomic interest rates and industry prosperity determine the valuation baseline. It does not involve token economics or on-chain settlement logic. Product implementation: officially operational with paid usage, revenue verifiable via SEC 10-Q/10-K filings, financial report data is legally disclosed. Latest version not found, no valid submissions in the past 90 days found.
On the user side, MAU and customer numbers are based on 10-Q/10-K. Stock 24h trading volume is $15.93M, circulating shares and market cap structure to be confirmed. The core focus is whether revenue growth rate and gross margin align with stock price expectations. Revenue side: operating revenue $100.99B (latest financial report/consensus expectation), gross profit estimated by industry average pending update, net profit to be confirmed by 10-K/10-Q, shareholder returns seen in buybacks and dividends. US-listed company profits do not equate to token holders’ profits; BTC-related stocks like MSTR/COIN require separate separation of BTC unrealized gains. On the code side, no valid submissions in 90 days found, no active contributors found, latest version not found. GitHub is an A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: NIO ($NIO) is the listed entity, shareholder structure based on 13F/10-K disclosures. Primary partnerships are A-level evidence via IR announcements; media mentions and industry conferences are C/D-level and not used alone as commercial implementation evidence.
Valuation anchor: circulating market cap $12.08B, valued by P/E, P/S, EV/Revenue, not applicable to token unlocks. BTC-related stocks (MSTR/COIN/MARA) require splitting BTC exposure and core business for revaluation. Compared with peers (using consistent criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): circulating market cap: NIO $12.08B, LI $12.61B, XPEV $11.48B. FDV: NIO undisclosed, LI $12.61B, XPEV $11.48B. Annual revenue: NIO $100.99B, LI $109.37B, XPEV $73.94B. Monthly active addresses or users: undisclosed for NIO, LI, XPEV. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: current market cap $12.08B, P/S (consensus revenue) 0.1x. Cyclical stocks (miners/GPU) use cycle-adjusted P/E. Pessimistic scenario cuts $12.08B in half, neutral maintains range, optimistic sees P/S expansion of 20-50%. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 63/100). Equity value anchor looks at revenue, net profit, buybacks, and dividends. Circulating market cap is reasonable or undervalued relative to fundamentals, FDV close to MC, no major unlocks, sell pressure controllable. Potential risks: rising macro interest rates pressuring valuation, AI capex investment below expectations, regulatory lawsuits (SEC/DoL). Follow-up tracking: revenue growth, gross margin, buyback amounts, order backlog, institutional holdings changes (13F). Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviation over 30% requires revaluation.
Fundamentals analyzed, market direction is another matter.
#FundamentalResearchReport #USStocks #Research #OKXOrbitI am Cige, and Strategy has sold coins again.
On August 10, Strategy submitted an 8-K filing to the SEC, disclosing that between August 3 and 9, it sold 1,690 bitcoins at an average price of $64,262, cashing out about $108.6 million. All proceeds were used to repurchase STRC preferred shares.
During the same period, it also sold 6.6 million Class A common shares through a market issuance plan, raising about $653 million. After completing these operations, the bitcoin holdings dropped to 840,447 coins, and the dollar reserves increased to $4.65 billion.
Why sell? This time the logic is clearer.
When it sold 1,638 coins a week ago, the market was still guessing if it was accidental. Selling for two consecutive weeks sends a clear signal. STRC preferred shares have an annual dividend of 12%, with a par value of $100. Previously, the price dropped to between $89 and $92. Without repurchasing, new shares cannot be issued to buy coins, breaking the entire cycle. The $108.6 million from selling coins was entirely used to repurchase STRC, and the current stock price has rebounded to $95.55, close to the management's target range of $99 to $100.
Strategy never sold before, and the driving factor is not bearish on bitcoin, but the capital structure itself forcing it to make a choice. Selling coins to support preferred shares and pulling STRC back near par value is necessary to reopen the debt financing channel to buy coins. This has nothing to do with bullish or bearish views; it's the company's financial calculations.
How the market reacted
MSTR fell 2.68% to $97.33 on Monday. Before and after the news, bitcoin fell from around $64,700 to below the $64,000 mark.
But the market did not panic. Holdings decreased from 842,138 to 840,447 coins, only a 0.2% reduction. The base holding of 840,000 coins remained untouched, and Saylor is still posting holding charts with captions like Doing Business. Nearly $58 billion worth of bitcoin holdings remain on the books.
Selling on one side, buying on the other
While Strategy cashed out $213 million in two weeks, other companies are doing the opposite. Strive increased its bitcoin holdings by 6,236 coins in Q2, with a bitcoin yield of 23.9% in Q2, and a cumulative increase of 12,237 coins in the first half of the year. From August 3 to 7, it bought another 147 coins, raising total holdings to 20,167 coins.
Despite recording a net loss of $257.6 million in Q2, Strive continues to buy. BitMine is also expanding its ETH holdings and conducting stock buybacks.
Strategy sells to protect the preferred share price and maintain the financing channel. Strive and BitMine buy because they believe this position is worth adding to. Both sides are doing what is most financially beneficial for themselves; there is no right or wrong, only accounting.
What to watch next
Whether STRC can return above $100 will determine how long Strategy will continue selling coins. If STRC continues to rise, selling pressure will gradually ease. If it falls below par value again, a third round of selling may already be underway.
The base holding of 840,000 bitcoins remains untouched, and the overall buying volume still far exceeds the selling volume. About 175,000 coins were cumulatively bought in the first half of the year, with 5,258 coins sold. In terms of total volume, Strategy remains the world's largest enterprise-level bitcoin holder; the changes in holdings are marginal adjustments, not directional shifts.
Corporate treasuries are moving from a single narrative of only buying and not selling to a new phase of accumulation, selling, repurchasing, and cash management coexisting. This trend has already taken shape.
Cige has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化 $BTC $ETH $BICO What I'm most concerned about right now isn't how BTC's next candlestick will move. Instead: Will the US July CPI, released on August 12, change the market's judgment about the Fed's next move? 👀 Recently, $BTC has fallen back to around $64K, after the rebound momentum above $65K has clearly weakened, and $ETH has fallen below $1.9K. The short-term bullish structure is no longer as strong as before. Now the real question for the market becomes: 👉 will the CPI confirm this pullback, or will it become a catalyst for a new reversal? 📉 If CPI falls short of expectations: cooling inflation may reinforce market bets on future easing policies. If U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weaken in tandem, risk assets may gain some breathing room. In this case, I will focus on watching: $BTC can reclaim the $65K–$66K range $ETH can challenge $1.95K–$2K again. If both improve simultaneously, altcoin funds may start to gain more space. 📈 But if CPI exceeds expectations: the market may re-raise expectations for how long high interest rates will persist. Rising yields and a stronger dollar could continue to weigh on BTC and ETH. Then $62K–$63K becomes the defensive area I focus on more. But there is another variable often overlooked: 🔥 positioning. CPI trading has never been just about looking at the data itself. Also watch: The market is releasing data$BTC BTC yesterday once again surged to the 65200 level before facing pressure and pulling back, currently hovering around 64100. In the short term, it has entered a correction and consolidation phase.
From the 4H structure perspective, the overall trend still maintains a range-bound oscillation. Key support to watch below is the 62000-62500 area; as long as this zone is not effectively broken, the bullish structure remains intact.
On the upside, continue to watch the 65200-65600 range. A breakout and stabilization above this could lead to another attempt to challenge the previous high near 66900.
Currently, there is no rush to chase the direction; wait for a pullback to support or a breakout above resistance before making a move.Green candles do not mean the entire market is improving 🚨
This rally looks strong, but beneath the surface, liquidity choices are becoming increasingly cautious.
Funds are not flowing into all altcoins but rotating among a small group of winners, with most projects quietly losing relative strength.
The data actually makes it very clear:
📉 Open interest is cooling down
📊 Trading volume remains steady
This indicates the market is in a disciplined holding state rather than a full-blown euphoric mood.
Traders no longer chase every pulse but concentrate funds on the highest-confidence patterns. Smart money is carefully selecting rather than blindly casting a wide net.
🟢 Assets attracting new liquidity
$JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
🔵 Core coins leading the market
$BTC — the largest liquidity magnet
$ETH — favored by institutional funds
$SOL — high Beta Layer 1 leader
$DATA — AI infrastructure narrative
$WLD — AI and digital identity sector
$HYPE — risk appetite thermometer
$ZEC and $DOGE — retail sentiment barometers
🔴 Projects still struggling to attract funds
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
The biggest advantage of this market phase is not predicting when the next big green candle will come but seeing exactly where the funds are flowing.
When capital becomes selective, relative strength matters more than hype stories. The strongest trends will attract more liquidity, while weaker projects may continue to underperform even as the overall market rises.
At this stage of the cycle, there is no need to chase every green candle; quietly follow the direction of the funds.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #Trading #Liquidity #MarketStructure #DeFi #Web3Tomorrow night’s CPI will be the "verdict" on whether there will be a rate hike in September. At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, the US July CPI data will be released. After the unexpected weakness in July’s nonfarm payrolls, the importance of this data has been further amplified.
FactSet and Dow Jones consensus forecasts show that the overall July CPI year-over-year is expected to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Core CPI year-over-year is expected to drop from 2.6% to 2.5%. The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcasting model predicts overall CPI year-over-year at about 3.42%, and core CPI at about 2.52%.
Three scenarios.
① Data meets expectations (core CPI at 0.2%), probability about 40%. BTC will likely remain in the $63,000–$65,000 range without a clear one-sided move. The market will digest the data and wait for more signals.
② Data exceeds expectations (core CPI above 0.25% or even 0.3%), inflation stickiness beyond expectations will strengthen the September rate hike expectations. Current market forecasts show a 51.2% probability of a September rate hike. If data exceeds expectations, BTC may fall below $62,000 or even test the $60,000 level. JPMorgan warns that if core CPI is above 0.3%, it could trigger a 1.5% to 2.5% sell-off in US stocks.
③ Data is significantly below expectations (core CPI below 0.15%), rate hike expectations will suffer a second shock. BTC is expected to see a new round of capital inflows, challenging $67,000 upwards. JPMorgan predicts this scenario could push US stocks up 1% to 2%.
The key still lies in the expectation gap, not the data itself.
Currently, BTC is consolidating near $64,000, and the CPI data will definitely break the deadlock. #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ BTC dropped to 64,000; the real conflict is not "bull vs. bear," but whether institutions can withstand short-term selling pressure.
BTC is currently around $64,081, with an intraday low of $63,771; ETH is weaker, having fallen to about $1,625.
However, the funding situation has not deteriorated in sync: as of August 7, the US spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $854 million, the highest since April, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about $693 million. Institutions are stepping in, but prices continue to weaken, indicating that selling pressure above is still being absorbed.
So now is not a comfortable position to short.
BTC should first watch whether the $63,770–64,000 level can hold; the previous $1,850 support for ETH has been confirmed invalid, and the next more important psychological defense shifts to around $1,600.
More critically, the July CPI will be released at 20:30 on August 12, and before the data is out, leveraged positions are prone to two-way liquidations.
ETFs determine whether there is long-term buying, while price determines who controls the short-term rhythm.
Weakness can lean bearish, but chasing shorts at low levels is essentially chasing sentiment. $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ After the yen fell to a 40-year low, Japan finally called the United States to "come to the rescue."
The US and Japan jointly bought yen, temporarily pushing the USD/JPY from above 163 down to around 155, with the short-term effect being almost immediate.
But the intervention is more like forcibly stepping on the brakes, not changing the engine's direction.
The core reason for the yen's long-term pressure remains the US-Japan interest rate differential. As long as the yield on US assets is significantly higher than that on yen assets, the market has the incentive to borrow low-interest yen and buy high-interest US dollars. Government intervention can hit the shorts but cannot change this equation in the long run.
The recent partial retreat of the yen's gains also shows the market is asking: after the joint intervention, who will take over?
The answer primarily points to the Bank of Japan.
If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates further, it can both narrow the interest rate gap and prove to the market that policy is truly shifting.
If it continues to wait and see, the window created by the intervention may quickly close.
However, raising rates is also tricky: Japan's government debt is huge, and rising rates would increase fiscal costs and could suppress consumption and economic growth.
So what really matters next is not whether the US and Japan will intervene again, but when the Bank of Japan will act and whether the Federal Reserve can coordinate rate cuts. The former would raise yen yields, the latter would lower US dollar yields; only by both sides narrowing the interest rate gap can the yen move from being "rescued temporarily" to truly stopping its decline.
The US can help Japan fend off shorts, but to save the yen's long-term credibility, Japan ultimately has to raise interest rates itself More and more people are starting to use this type of data to predict Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms. This is an anonymous post from December 13, 2023 (many predictions are directly copied or extended based on this), predicting Bitcoin's top on October 6, 2025. In fact, earlier on, some people also made similar data derivations, but unfortunately, they referenced even earlier data, resulting in larger errors (between 2009-2015). Moreover, every cycle has the 'this time is different' phenomenon, which is one of the main reasons most people fail to exit at the top. But another interesting point is that there is a certain time lag between the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin and those of the altcoin groups. Over the years, the altcoin groups have experienced a rise after Bitcoin peaked, only to become broken-winged failures. And the outdated altcoin data has become one of the key reasons many people fail to exit at the top.
Ps: Personally, I felt the numbers were too specific to rely on, so I gave up referencing them. However, fortunately, trend cycles plus sentiment trading have managed to identify the tops and bottoms of the past few cycles.To get straight to the point: I don't simply categorize RVN's recent decline as "oversold," nor do I treat negative funding rates as signals for a rebound. The first thing to price now is network finality: the official team has confirmed that a critical consensus vulnerability has been exploited, and warned that most hashrate-supported recovery chains could require about three days of deep restructuring if they become mainstreams. A nearly 20% price drop is only on the surface; the core risk is whether it can be sustained in the near term. First, look at the strict window. From 05:02 to 17:00 Beijing time on August 11, OKX spot RVN fell from 0.003615 to 0.002907, a drop of about 19.6%, with a turnover of about $322,000, 3.83 times the previous long-term window; another major trading platform fell about 19.0% over the same period, with a turnover of about $1.255 million, expanding to 3.75 times the previous window. Cross-platform direction and volume align, indicating this is not a random spike in a single market. Facts and the timing of their dissemination must be separated. About four hours before the start of this round of this window, Ravencoin officially disclosed: a vulnerability caused vulnerable nodes to accept invalid blocks; Two major mining pools are building a chain that excludes exploited branches; if this chain becomes the main chain, it may roll back trading for about three days. The official recommendation is that trading platforms temporarily suspend RVN deposits and withdrawals, and consider confirmations after block height 4,487,775 to be considered risky. At 13:31 Beijing time, Wu said blockchain was once again organized and disseminated within this window, proving that risks have entered a new round of public discussion. However, 13:31 should not be written as the moment the vulnerability occurred, nor can one claim that a single report explains everything$CORE CORE rising from 0.02 to 0.1 is possible, but the following core conditions must be met:
Capital and technical reversal: The overall market needs to warm up, and trading volume must significantly increase to reverse the current bearish trend.
Major positive news implementation: For example, officially listing on top exchanges, bringing massive incremental capital and retail investor attention.
Ecosystem and staking support: Continuous growth with a large amount of tokens staked, thereby reducing market selling pressure.
Further chip decentralization: Currently, chips are highly concentrated and need to gradually disperse to the community to reduce the risk of whales dumping.
Current summary: CORE has solid fundamentals with the potential to reach $0.1; however, the technicals are currently weak and chips are too concentrated, so in the short term it is more likely to consolidate at the bottom, waiting for macro cycles and major positive news to trigger.
Note: None of the four conditions are currently met!!! We can only hope!!! #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ Brothers, $ETH $BTC I have already gone long, I feel the timing is right. Yesterday I spent the whole day grinding the market, the line has basically stabilized. I already went long at 1878, planning to hold until 1930. Do you think I have a chance to take 1000u from the market maker? Let's go, I have already drawn the line, the market maker just needs to follow this. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ Volume just returned to normal, an hour ago all the altcoins that were rising have turned red — this market is worse than dead water.
BTC this hour: 64,193, 24h -1.5%, volume shrank 87% from an hour ago then returned to +3%, Fear index at 29, price barely moved, typical bottoming dull knife.
Looking at the morning pulse coins: TUT was +5.86% an hour ago, now -2.29%; MMT dropped from +1.4% to -2.97%; TST -1.34%. All turned red within an hour, breadth still 7 up 8 down.
One framework takeaway — "Pulse Half-life": BTC sideways + breadth not positive + morning pulse coins turning red within 1h = stock mutual cutting, not an incremental market. Chasing small coins in this market, nine times out of ten you buy on the way down.
True structural signals look at leveraged proxies: XSOXL (3x long semiconductors) still -9.8%, XSNDK (3x short Nasdaq) +1.5% — the market is still pricing in tech/risk asset declines, not time to be optimistic.
Do you dare to bottom-fish small coins in this market? Comment which ones + reason (shallow comments hidden by algorithm, only those with numbers are prioritized).
— On-chain veteran doctor · Hourly pulse · 2026081117 · Pulse Half-life
Crypto assets are high risk, this article is not investment advice, purely personal opinion.
#OKXPlanet $BTC #MomentumDecay #AltcoinPulseOn the eve of the earnings report from the core computing power service provider, on-exchange funds are oscillating between extremely inflated capital expenditures and performance returns yet to be realized.
The computing power sector is showing a rapid consolidation of positions on the eve of the decision, with short-term funds tending to exit and observe before uncertainty settles.
The $CRWV earnings report to be released tonight reflects the market's repricing of the infrastructure expansion pace, focusing on whether the massive capital expenditures can be simultaneously converted into performance returns.
The cost pressure accumulated from high capital expenditures is directly suppressing market risk appetite. If the realization efficiency falls short of expectations, funds will quickly withdraw from valuation premiums.
If actual expenditure conversion and demand performance exceed expectations, risk appetite recovery will drive funds to flow back and open up upside potential, but if subsequent delivery is delayed, this strengthening path will fail.
If expenditure pressure erodes gross profit, weakening sentiment may trigger position liquidation and valuation correction, whereas efficient realization of large computing power orders will invalidate this downward path.
The market's divergence on the sustainability of computing power demand ultimately depends on whether funds reverse their tolerance for the high-leverage expansion model.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is the turnover rate and position rebuilding direction of funds in the computing power sector after the earnings release.
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 #特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大，BTC持仓下降I have noticed a very interesting recent phenomenon
The capital flow of $BTC spot $ETH has shown obvious divergence.
On one hand, BlackRock's IBIT continues to attract funds. Last week it absorbed $47.9 billion, and this week it continues to absorb.
On the other hand, Grayscale's GBTC is continuously seeing outflows. Large outflows.
So what does this mean?
On the surface: the total capital inflow of spot ETFs is still positive. Last week there was a net inflow of over $75 billion.
This looks very impressive
But if you look closely, you will find a problem: all this money is flowing to BlackRock's IBIT.
While Grayscale's GBTC is bleeding.
What does this indicate?
It indicates the market is reallocating funds.
From Grayscale's GBTC to BlackRock's IBIT.
Why? Because IBIT has lower fees. This is simple business logic.
But behind this, there is another signal: the market's confidence in BTC is still not strong enough.
If the market were really optimistic about BTC, all ETFs would be attracting funds.
Not one attracting funds and one seeing outflows.
More importantly, the price performance of BTC:
BTC has dropped from $73,000 at the beginning of July to below $60,000 now.
This is a significant decline.
And the capital inflow into spot ETFs has not been able to stop this decline.
What does this indicate? It indicates strong selling pressure.
Why is the selling pressure so strong?
One reason is that the market's expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is weakening.
If the Fed does not cut rates, BTC's appeal will decrease.
Another reason is that some early BTC holders are taking profits.
They entered at a high level and are now exiting at a mid-level.
As for ETH:
It's not that BTC is going to rise.
But the market is adjusting expectations.
From being optimistic about BTC's long-term prospects to focusing on short-term risks.
The shift from Grayscale to IBIT shows the market is optimizing costs.
But this optimization itself indicates the market's enthusiasm for BTC is cooling down #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?
White House digital asset advisor Patrick Witt stated that the government will still fully push for the bill to "cross the finish line" in September.
This indicates that legislation on the digital asset market structure has entered the White House's priority agenda. However, the White House can only coordinate and apply pressure; it cannot vote in the Senate, nor can it eliminate internal conflicts of interest within Congress.
From political statements to officially becoming law, there are still procedural Senate votes, amendment negotiations, final votes, coordination of texts between the two chambers, and presidential signing.
Any disputes over regulatory authority division, stablecoin yields, and restrictions on officials' digital asset interests could change the timeline or even alter the policy benefits the bill can ultimately deliver.
Therefore, news about the CLARITY Act will definitely fluctuate before September. Every negotiation progress, lawmaker statement, and voting arrangement could be packaged by the market as "about to pass," driving short-term risk appetite.
Currently, on Predict, will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?
Yes probability is only 24. No probability is 76.
I think it’s worth buying a little Yes to test the waters, after all, Trump is strong.$CL Just saw in my watchlist, crude oil suddenly rose above 84
I held a short position for a few days, took profit yesterday and sold, but sold too early,
Top in holding shorts, but not good at making money!
Crude oil has risen to 84 dollars again.
What is the market mainly trading this time during the rise?
From what I see, the core reasons are two:
First, the expectation of US-Iran negotiations cooling down.
Previously, the market was betting that the US and Iran could quickly reach an agreement, conflicts would ease, the Strait of Hormuz would resume normal navigation, crude oil supply would recover, and oil prices would naturally fall.
But currently, the negotiation progress is not as smooth as imagined.
Both sides still have differences on ceasefire conditions, compensation, and subsequent arrangements.
So the market has started to add a "geopolitical premium" back to crude oil.
Second, the supply risk in the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely resolved.
This is the most noteworthy point at present.
If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume normal navigation, Middle East crude oil exports will continue to be affected.
The market is not worried about how much supply is lost in a day, but how long this situation will last.
The longer the time, the greater the pressure on oil prices.
Therefore, crude oil rising back to 84 dollars now does not mean demand suddenly became particularly strong, but the market has started to worry about supply issues again.
Next, I think the focus is on two signals.
If there is a substantial breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation, oil prices are likely to fall quickly.
If negotiations continue to stall or conflicts escalate further, then 84 dollars may just be a mid-point, and 86–90 dollars could be tested.
So the 84-dollar level now should not be simply understood as "price rises, so keep going long."
The real next direction for crude oil depends on:
The outcome of US-Iran negotiations.
The navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Once these two pieces of news show significant changes, oil prices may react very quickly.
At present, the market's expectation for a quick end to negotiations is declining, so the strengthening of oil prices is understandable.
#霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温 In the long term, there is another negative factor: Circle continues to issue shares to pay salaries.
Typically, companies issue shares to raise cash for operations, but Circle issues shares that are almost never invested in productive assets; instead, they are directly paid to people, including employee salaries, employee stock subscriptions, and business partnerships.
This year, 10.34 million shares have been issued, with an estimated total of about 17.74 million shares for the year, equivalent to a market value of approximately $1.19 billion, increasing the circulating supply by 7%. In 2027, it is estimated that about 9.94 million shares will be issued, equivalent to a market value of about $667 million. Over two years, this totals $1.86 billion. After deducting the shares returned from employees exercising options, the net outflow is about $1.69 billion, which equals 98% of Circle's cash on hand, while the amount repurchased during the same period is zero.
Even more astonishing is that Circle can issue up to 2.5 billion Class A shares, of which only 9.3% have been used so far, meaning it can still issue 10 times more. The currently authorized total issuance is about 78.7 million shares, roughly 31% of the circulating shares, and the authorized shares automatically replenish 6% of the circulating shares annually. The actual issuance volume each year is unilaterally decided by the compensation committee, and shareholders have no veto power.
$CRCL Day Session Summary
In the past 24 hours, BTC moved from $65,203.70 to $64,145.10, closing down -1.62% with a volatility range of 2.18 percentage points.
The highest point was $65,237.80, the lowest point was $63,818.10, with a trading volume of $227.39M, featuring at least 3 rounds of long and short battles.
Across the market, 28 assets rose while 78 fell, with rising assets accounting for 26.4 percentage points, showing clear profit-taking sentiment.
Sector Overview:
AI/Computing Power sector average 0.00%, representative tokens: $TAO flat, $RNDR flat
DePIN sector average 0.00%, representative tokens: $GRASS flat, $HNT flat
Meme/Payment sector average 0.00%, representative tokens: $DOGE flat, $SHIB flat
Oracle/Middleware sector average +4.07%, representative tokens: $LINK +4.07%, $API3 flat
Total market trading volume was $871.54M, with a volume change of +5 percentage points compared to the previous 24 hours.
The strongest token was $MMT +10.37%, the weakest token was $ACT -15.75%, with a strength gap of 26.1 percentage points.
In summary: BTC closed in the red, with significant sector divergence. Next, we will see if there is any capital willing to absorb the selling pressure after it is fully released.
Data is sourced from public market APIs for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.
That's all, the rest is up to your own judgment. Are the $SPCX shorts completely confused and panicked? 😂
Before the lock-up expiration, everyone kept shouting "hundreds of billions in selling pressure," but on the day $SPCX's lock-up expired, it didn't fall—it actually rose, jumping 23% in two days! Today’s low was 134.9, just a breath away from the IPO price of 135.
Why didn’t it crash? Because after the earnings report, it had already dropped early to 104.85, and most of the panic selling had already happened. The lock-up expiration turned into a "bad news fully priced in" event.
What’s even more exciting is that there are still over 250 million shares shorted, accounting for about 16% of the tradable shares. The price not falling makes shorts even more uncomfortable; the more shorts cover, the more it accelerates the bulls.
But don’t rush to go all in!
There’s a second batch of lock-up expiration on August 20, and the CPI data will also be released.
If 135 holds, shorts might continue to get hammered; if 135 breaks, the previous rally could turn into a bull trap.
Is this $SPCX squeeze just beginning, or is 135 the last hurrah?
The real battle between bulls and bears is far from over.
#火箭实验室财报超预期，商业航天热度延续 #CPIToResetFedBets The July U.S. CPI report, scheduled for August 12, could reset expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. July payrolls reportedly fell by 23,000, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. The weaker labor picture reduced expectations for another rate increase. Economists now expect headline inflation to ease from 3.5% to around 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation potentially slowing from 2.6% to 2.5%.
A softer reading would support the argument that inflation is cooling without requiring further tightening, potentially benefiting equities, bonds and crypto. However, persistent services inflation or renewed energy pressure could keep the Fed cautious. The market reaction may depend more on housing and service components than on the headline figure alone. My view is that one favorable report could reinforce a pause, but it would not completely remove tightening risk. Investors should also watch real yields and the dollar because these channels often determine how strongly crypto responds. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
I believe that after the CPI release, BTC will most likely first fake a downward breakout, then recover upwards.
First, a cold shower: In the current market, all good news being fully priced in is actually bad news.
BTC is stuck at $63,935, just $155 above the 200-day moving average at $63,780. This close tracking is not strength; it’s bulls holding on hard. Despite continuous ETF inflows over the past two weeks, the price hasn’t hit new highs, indicating institutions are accumulating quietly without pushing the price up. They are waiting for the CPI as an excuse to clear out floating positions.
If the CPI is mild (below expectations), the market’s first reaction will be a stronger certainty of rate cuts, and BTC might instantly surge to $65,500 or even $66,000. But don’t rush to chase; I’ve seen this scenario too many times—good news gets sold into. Retail FOMO rushes in, institutions hand over ETF shares, then the price falls back. In March 2024, when CPI was below expectations, BTC surged to $69,000 that day but dropped back to $61,000 three days later—exactly the same script.
Second, the key level to watch: $62,500, a critical lifeline.
The $62,500 support is not just a technical level but a dense quarterly bull liquidation zone. If CPI surprises on the upside, BTC will quickly test this level. But I bet it won’t break it, for three reasons:
1. Continuous ETF inflows indicate institutions’ cost base is between $60,000 and $63,000; they won’t let the price deeply break below their accumulation zone.
2. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are already oscillating at high levels, limiting further upward momentum.
3. The market is pricing in a rate cut in September, not the August CPI. A single data beat won’t change the rate cut path unless there are two consecutive months of surprises.
So if it really drops near $62,500, I will buy in batches instead of panicking and selling at a loss.
Third, the real direction: It’s not in the CPI itself but in the cross-asset validation after CPI.
Years of experience tell me traders who judge solely by BTC die early. After CPI, I’ll watch four signals:
1. Nasdaq: If tech stocks rebound simultaneously, it indicates a dovish trade and BTC is likely to rise; if Nasdaq falls and BTC alone rises, that’s a fake breakout—run.
2. DXY (Dollar Index): If the dollar falls but BTC doesn’t rise, it means funds are seeking safety, and BTC will have to catch down later.
3. U.S. Treasury 2Y/10Y yield spread: If short-term yields fall (rate cut expectations) and long-term yields rise (inflation resilience), that’s the most comfortable environment for BTC—loose liquidity plus safe-haven demand.
4. ETF net inflows/outflows: If there are three consecutive days of net outflows, reduce positions regardless of price.
Fourth, conclusions and strategy.
Short term (48 hours after CPI): test the $63,000-$62,500 range downward, create panic, then a V-shaped rebound.
Medium term (until September FOMC): oscillate upward, targeting $67,000-$69,000, but with repeated leverage cleansing.
My strategy before CPI release: reduce positions to 50%, no high-leverage longs.
If it first drops to $62,500-$63,000: build long positions in batches, stop loss at $61,800.
If it first rises above $65,500: don’t chase, wait for a pullback.
My core principle: don’t bet on data, bet on market structure.
A sideways market ending doesn’t mean the bear market is over, but the first candle after CPI definitely doesn’t represent the true direction. In the crypto space over the years, my edge isn’t predicting every move correctly but being present with ammo every time volatility hits.The biggest catalyst and the biggest risk in this sector are the same thing.
The 2026 November midterm elections.
Current data: NBC analyzed 1,408 midterm election-related markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, with trading volume exceeding $197 million.
But in the same report, election officials openly expressed concerns—worried that the odds could affect public trust in the election results, especially when the actual results differ from market expectations; and about creating incentives for manipulation.
Pew’s June analysis pointed out a crucial fact: most states have some form of law prohibiting election betting, but many of these laws predate modern prediction markets and have not recently been truly tested in court.
To translate: the legality of this sector currently rests on "no one has seriously sued" rather than "the courts have ruled it permissible."
The most vulnerable aspect is insider trading—a campaign team member who knows internal polling data can directly monetize this information on the market.
One scandal could trigger a revaluation of the $22 billion valuation.
November is its highlight moment and also its stress test #贝莱德IBIT换购门槛降至100万美元 #霍尔木兹海峡通航协议未落地，油价风险升温 #特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大，BTC持仓下降 When writing about prediction market research, I was always looking for its bearish logic, and finally found that the hardest one is not regulation, but mathematics.
Its essence is zero-sum.
The stock market has an underlying positive-sum foundation with corporate profits—companies make money, and all shareholders can profit together. But in prediction markets, the winner's money is the loser's money, minus the platform's cut.
Therefore, the total returns of long-term participants must be negative, with only the platform making a steady profit.
This characteristic determines one thing: its user retention has a natural upper limit. Unless new users keep coming in, old users will be systematically consumed by the system.
Only two types of people have an advantage: those with information advantages and those with market-making abilities.
If you are neither, your role here is to provide liquidity for these two types of people.
My own approach is to treat it as a free observation window, using odds to calibrate my judgment on macro events, but not to participate.
Selling shovels makes money; gold miners do not necessarily. This phrase is literal in this field $BTC $SNDK $XAU #AI基建融资升温，英伟达英特尔路径分化 #苹果测试长鑫存储芯片并展开初步供货谈判 #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #苹果测试长鑫存储芯片并展开初步供货谈判
Heard that Apple went to test Changxin Memory's chips? It seems like just looking for a backup, but deep down it's Cook's shrewd calculation amid the high memory price wave.
1. Apple uses Changxin as a price pressure chip $AAPL
Changxin's current capacity makes it difficult to significantly impact Apple's global supply, but as long as it passes testing, Apple can regain bargaining power against Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Also, using it only in domestically sold devices can avoid some risks $SKHY $MU
2. Can only buy standard products, no deep customization
Due to regulatory restrictions, Apple cannot transfer technical specifications to Changxin, meaning Apple cannot have Changxin make customized chips and can only buy generic standard products. Apple is willing to adjust circuit designs to push this forward, showing how painful the memory cost pressure is.
3. Testing regulatory boundaries
Changxin is on the sensitive list, and Apple's high-profile testing is both a demonstration to Washington of the AI boom crowding the consumer electronics supply chain and a move to gain room for its own profit margins.
✍️ Trend forecast
In the short term, this has limited impact on stock prices. But if compliance is achieved, the gross margins of lower-end iPhones and MacBooks will be restored, representing a long-term implicit benefit. Conversely, if severe intervention occurs, it may cause a short-term pullback.
Overall, this is a typical tactic by Cook to regain supply chain discourse power during the AI-driven memory cycle. Do you think Washington will ultimately approve it?
Not investment advice DYOR One number made me look at this line again.
The combined monthly trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket rose from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026.
In seven months, nearly quadrupled.
For comparison: the average monthly betting volume of all legal sports betting in the US in 2025 is about $14 billion.
That means the monthly trading volume of these two prediction market platforms has already surpassed the entire US legal sports betting industry.
Meanwhile, what is the situation in crypto during the same period: spot trading volume on the top ten exchanges in Q2 dropped 27.9%, perpetual contracts dropped 10%, and the number of project closures in the first half of the year exceeded that of the 2022 bear market.
The whole industry is shrinking, only this segment is growing.
In the first half of the year, the top ten sectors raised $7.1 billion, prediction markets took $1.85 billion, accounting for 26%, ranking first, surpassing exchanges' $1.57 billion and also exceeding AI's $1 billion.
Most of the trends I have been following this year are supply-side stories—who can build what others cannot. This is the only pure demand-side one: it turns something that could never be traded into an asset, which is uncertainty itself
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 The second growth curve of brokerage stocks · But not yet in the financial reports
This one connects the prediction market to the US stock market.
Cantor Fitzgerald's view: Investors increasingly see prediction markets as the next growth curve for platforms like $COIN and $HOOD, especially when traditional crypto trading volumes are weakening.
The logic is solid: In Q2, crypto spot trading dropped 27.9%, perpetual contracts fell 10%, while monthly prediction market trading volume rose from 5 billion to 24 billion. The same group of users, the same app, one business is shrinking, the other is growing.
Already in the field:
Robinhood: Runs its own hourly BTC price contracts (9am, 12pm, 1pm, 6pm, 7pm EDT, settled by CF Benchmarks real-time index), also invested in Rothera Markets, now ranked fourth in the industry.
Coinbase: Is laying out plans.
Kalshi: Entering from the opposite side, aiming to do crypto perpetuals, directly competing with exchanges.
But it must be made clear: This business segment still accounts for a very small portion of total revenue for COIN and HOOD, and is not yet separately disclosed in financial reports.
So buying them now does not mean buying this sector.
Strategy: Focus on a specific point in time—when they start separately disclosing prediction market or event contract revenue in their financial reports. Before that day, you are buying an option not yet reflected in the numbers; after that day, the market will assign it a separate valuation multiple.
The risk is binary: State-level battles in New York, Illinois, and Wisconsin are still ongoing, with the core dispute being "financial product or gambling." A single ruling could change the entire business line.SPCX rebound struggles to break 150, shorting window is approaching
In-depth analysis: The shorting logic behind the glamorous narrative
🚀 The strongest narrative, or the strongest harvest?
The most impressive narrative in human history: Mars colonization plan, IPO fundraising of 85.7 billion + 25 billion bonds, a record "harvest" followed by an immediate 40% rally, perfectly trapping the bottom holders. With Musk's halo, are you tempted?
📊 Three major financial reports: insufficient cash flow, excessive cash burn
· Starlink: the only stable cash generator, barely sustaining
· Space launch: slight losses
· AI computing power: spends the most, earns the least
Core issue: money comes from financing, not earnings.
📉 Technical aspect: limited upside space
· IPO issue price at $135, not easy to break below in the short term, strong psychological support
· Upper resistance target at $150, but the market bulls lack strength to support continuous rallies and stabilization at 100→137→150
· Current rebound has exceeded 40%, momentum for further advance is doubtful
🎯 Operation strategy: wait for shorting opportunity
Shorting logic: the only cash-generating project—Starship, once it falls short of expectations, will trigger a sharp drop.
Specific plan:
· Place short orders in batches between 145-148
· Wait for signals: false breakout at 150, or rally fails before 150
Bottom-fishing timing: wait until the hype completely fades and price returns to the 100-110 low range for consolidation and accumulation before considering long positions.
📌 Summary in one sentence
$SPCX narrative is rich, financials are lean. Short in batches above 145, wait for Starship to underperform; consider bottom-fishing below 100.
#火箭实验室财报超预期，商业航天热度延续 Prediction Market · Deconstructing a Demand Singularity with a New Framework
Our manual just added three dimensions (revenue breakdown, three layers of user engagement, competitors and dark horses). Today, we use it to analyze this sector.
Scale: The combined monthly transaction volume of the two companies grew from less than 5 billion in September 2025 to about 24 billion in April 2026. This surpasses the total scale of the US legal sports betting monthly average of 14 billion in 2025. Financing in the first half of the year reached 1.85 billion, accounting for 26% of the top ten sectors, ranking first.
Revenue Breakdown: Kalshi has an annualized revenue exceeding 1.5 billion, purely from transaction fees, not relying on coin prices, token incentives, or TVL. Corresponding to a valuation of 22 billion, the price-to-sales ratio is about 14.7 times—on par with CME and ICE, indicating it is already priced like an exchange. Polymarket charges no fees long-term; it is buying market share, not making profits.
Three Layers of User Engagement
Breadth: Kalshi holds over 90% of the US market share; Polymarket has 342 active markets in the crypto category; new distribution is a variable—Robinhood has achieved hourly BTC contracts, Bitget Wallet has 90 million users connected.
Depth: About 40% of Kalshi’s users are institutional; the two companies each have about 400 million in open interest monthly (open interest is a more honest indicator than volume, as volume can be washed, but open interest requires capital).
Quality: Kalshi will not go to zero (no token incentives); Polymarket carries risk (no token issued, some activity driven by airdrop expectations). The sharp decline in transactions after the 2024 election is a verified pattern.
Competitors and Dark Horses
Kalshi’s growth comes from new categories (sports), not from stealing users—product capability expansion is irreversible.
Polymarket’s decline is due to a lack of events in non-election years—cyclical and reversible.
Three dark horse directions: Robinhood (distribution dominance, turning event products into daily tools), Hyperliquid HIP-4 (permissionless, staking 500,000 HYPE to open a market), Wager Predict (BSC channel misalignment).
The best targets are unavailable to buy (Kalshi not listed, Polymarket no token issued). There are three indirect paths, all discounted. My approach is to treat it as a free observation window—using odds to calibrate macro judgments without trading. Because it is zero-sum, after fees it is negative-sum.
#财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #特朗普媒体Q2加密亏损扩大，BTC持仓下降 🚨 AFTERNOON CRYPTO CHECK: THE MARKET IS WAITING FOR CPI
The tone has changed.
$BTC is hovering around $64K, while $ETH has slipped below $1,900. Major alts are also under pressure as traders reduce risk ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. CPI release.
This is no longer a simple breakout setup.
It’s a macro positioning game. 👀
📉 $BTC — $64K UNDER PRESSURE
Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $65K yesterday, but sellers have pushed it back down.
Now watch the reaction around $63K–$64K.
Hold it → buyers still have a chance to rebuild momentum.
Lose it decisively → the market may need to search for lower support before another recovery attempt.
The important signal is not the wick.
It’s what happens after the wick.
🔷 $ETH — CAN IT STABILIZE?
ETH is trading below $1,900 as risk appetite cools.
The next move in ETH/BTC matters almost as much as ETH/USD.
If ETH stabilizes while BTC remains range-bound, capital could begin rotating back into large-cap alts.
If both continue falling together, expect traders to stay defensive.
⚡ ALTCOINS ARE BEING FILTERED
This is where selective positioning matters.
Keep an eye on:
$SOL — high-beta momentum
$XRP — relative-strength watch
$BNB — ecosystem liquidity
$DOGE — retail risk appetite
$TAO — AI narrative
$ONDO — RWA narrative
No need to chase every green candle.
💰 THE INTERESTING DIVERGENCE
Recent U.S. spot ETFs attracted roughly $1.1B combined in BTC and ETH during the first full week of August.
Yet prices are still struggling.
That tells us demand exists — but it is being met by selling elsewhere.
🌎 TOMORROW IS THE REAL TEST
July U.S. CPI lands Wednesday.
Markets are looking for roughly 3.4% YoY, down from 3.5% previously. A cooler print could ease rate/yield pressure; a hotter number could reinforce the risk-off tone.
📌 AFTERNOON TAKE
BTC weakness + strong recent ETF demand + CPI uncertainty = wait for confirmation.
The best trade may be the one you don't force before the data.
Watch BTC support, yields, ETF flows and ETH/BTC.
Tomorrow could decide the next direction.
#Crypto $BTC $ETH $SOL
#Altcoins #CPIBTC dropped to 64,000; the real conflict is not "bull vs. bear," but whether institutions can withstand short-term selling pressure.
BTC is currently around $64,081, with an intraday low of $63,771; ETH is weaker, having fallen to about $1,625.
However, the funding situation has not deteriorated in sync: as of August 7, the US spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $854 million, the highest since April, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about $693 million. Institutions are stepping in, but prices continue to weaken, indicating that selling pressure above is still being absorbed.
So now is not a comfortable position to short.
BTC should first watch whether the $63,770–64,000 level can hold; the previous $1,850 support for ETH has been confirmed invalid, and the next more important psychological defense shifts to around $1,600.
More critically, the July CPI will be released at 20:30 on August 12, and before the data is out, leveraged positions are prone to two-way liquidations.
ETFs determine whether there is long-term buying, while price determines who controls the short-term rhythm.
Weakness can lean bearish, but chasing shorts at low levels is essentially chasing sentiment. $BTC #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ I saw a sentence that mentioned something I've been thinking about these past two days.
The gist is: BTC now has a market cap of over 1.3 trillion, and rising to 67,000 is only a 3% gain, which is not the kind of asymmetric return that can rebuild a portfolio. And this math is exactly why traders keep rotating funds into Bitcoin's own infrastructure layer.
This sentence explains the phenomenon of the past month completely.
Why is there capital flowing into sectors like DePIN, ZK hardware, perp DEX, and prediction markets? Why is Hyperliquid still the strongest weekly gainer even on its unlock day?
Because the resilience of mainstream coins is gone.
An asset worth 1.3 trillion requires an additional 1.3 trillion in new funds to double; a new coin with a market cap of 46 million only needs a few million to double.
This is not a value judgment, it's math.
So the current market structure is: big money hides in mainstream coins, small money looks for resilience in niche sectors, and the middle layer is the most uncomfortable, stuck in between.
And this also implies risk: the places to find resilience are also the thinnest in liquidity and the hardest to exit from Hormuz Deal Unresolved: Oil and Cryptocurrency at a Critical Crossroads
The Hormuz issue remains unresolved. Despite progress in negotiations between the US, Iran, and Oman, disagreements over shipping routes, transit fees, and passage conditions mean geopolitical risks have not disappeared.
Brent crude oil prices have climbed to about $84.95 per barrel, indicating the market is still pricing in a geopolitical risk premium related to Hormuz.
This is significant for cryptocurrencies:
Hormuz tensions → Oil rises → Inflation expectations increase → Fed easing becomes harder → Dollar/yields rise → Risk asset liquidity weakens → $BTC and cryptocurrencies face pressure.
Conversely, if Hormuz remains open, the geopolitical premium may decline, oil prices could fall back, and monetary policy expectations might improve—creating more room for recovery for $BTC and the broader crypto market.
Therefore, investors should monitor Hormuz, Brent crude, the dollar, treasury yields, and $BTC price structure simultaneously.
Key takeaway: The Hormuz issue remains unresolved, and risks persist. A lasting agreement could be a positive catalyst for risk assets, while a breakdown in talks could quickly trigger a new round of volatility.
If you find this information useful, please follow me to stay updated and discuss the latest in crypto markets and Wall Street.
#HormuzDealUnresolved
#StrategySellsBTCAgain
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
$BTC
$ETH Tomorrow is CPI, and the odds structure this time is completely different from last month.
Last Friday's employment report was terrible—nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 (expected increase of 83,000), and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000—directly cutting the probability of a September rate hike to 40%.
So now there are only two paths:
CPI cools → dovish shift locked in, risk assets could see a decent rally.
CPI heats up → rate hike discussions will return, and three officials already supported a hike at the July FOMC, so they will immediately get ammunition.
$BTC is now oscillating between 64,950 and 65,362, having been sideways for almost two months, with the monthly open price around 62,700—just a reminder, this so-called "recovery" is still within a larger sideways channel, not a new trend.
Key levels are clear: support at 64,700 to 64,800, resistance at 65,300 to 66,300.
My approach is simple: no action before tomorrow's data release. This week's opportunity is after the event, not before it.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化 📊 Non-farm payrolls have collapsed, how good can CPI still be? Non-farm -23,000, CPI most likely to follow down
Poor employment → wages can't rise → consumption shrinks → prices can't go up
- Non-farm negative 23,000 means fewer and fewer people have jobs, no job = no money to spend = no one dares to raise prices, rent, services, goods, all under pressure.
This is why the market expects overall CPI to drop from 3.5% to 3.4%, core from 2.6% to 2.5% — the expectation itself points to cooling.
Service inflation (rent, insurance, medical) is the hardest to suppress. The market expects core from 2.6% → 2.5%, a small decline. If core services remain sticky, CPI might look "worse" than expected — but the direction is still downward, just a matter of speed.
CPI gently falling, rate cut expectations confirmed, good for BTC. Low probability, CPI exceeds expectations high, triggering stagflation concerns, market falls first as a precaution.
As for how to operate BTC, see below
Don't chase the first candlestick: the moment data is released, volatility is greatest, spikes are sharp, small funds can't hold on
Watch three price levels: 63,780 (200-day moving average), 62,500 (support), 65,500 (resistance)
Cross-asset verification: USD down + US bond yields down + ETF inflows → high probability BTC goes up, otherwise under pressure
In short: CPI decline is highly probable, favorable for BTC mid-term trend. But don't rush the first wave in the short term, wait for the market to price in before taking a position. 🌡️
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 💧🚨 AFTERNOON LIQUIDITY CHECK | THE MARKET IS GETTING PICKIER
The afternoon tape is showing selective risk appetite, not a broad liquidity rush.
$BTC is around the $64K area and remains the market's main liquidity anchor, while total crypto market cap has slipped to roughly $2.18T. Bitcoin dominance remains elevated near 59%, suggesting capital is still concentrated in the largest asset rather than flooding into smaller caps.
🏦 ETF flows: The recent institutional bid has cooled. After a strong five-session inflow streak through Aug. 7, U.S. spot $BTC ETFs reportedly saw about $145M in combined outflows on Aug. 10.
That doesn't automatically mean institutions are bearish — but it does mean the market needs fresh demand to push through resistance.
📊 Liquidity map:
👑 $BTC — capital anchor
🏛️ $ETH — rotation test
⚡ $SOL — higher-beta gauge
🟡 $BNB — ecosystem liquidity
💳 $XRP — large-cap momentum
🔗 $LINK — infrastructure
🔥 $HYPE / $SUI — risk appetite
🌍 Macro is the wildcard.
U.S. Treasury auctions worth $125B are scheduled across Aug. 11–13, putting bond demand and yields firmly on the radar. Rising yields could compete with crypto for liquidity.
The key sequence now:
ETF demand returns → $BTC stabilizes → $ETH/$SOL strengthen → altcoin breadth expands.
Until that happens, this remains a selective market rather than a confirmed altseason.
👀 Follow the liquidity. The next move may already be forming beneath the surface.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB $XRP $LINK $HYPE $SUI
#Liquidity #Bitcoin #ETF #Crypto #Altcoins #Macro #MarketStructure
#OKXOrbitTopics #AIInfraEarningsWatch Strategy's numbers have been updated again, and they're even more extreme than last week.
It sold 1,690 bitcoins, about $108.6 million, and used that money to repurchase an equivalent amount of $STRC preferred shares.
Since 2026, it has sold about $432 million worth of bitcoin in total.
And it hasn't bought any bitcoin for seven consecutive weeks.
When I wrote about treasury shares in July, I said this trend had moved from "whether it would sell" to "how much it would sell." Last week, I added "and how much dilution there would be" (the bitcoin content per share has dropped to 201,822 satoshis, a 4.3% decrease in one month).
Now I can add a third point: it hasn't bought for seven weeks.
A machine whose sole narrative is "permanently accumulating bitcoin" has stopped for seven weeks.
Objectively speaking, it still holds 840,447 bitcoins, remaining the largest corporate holder globally, and the market reaction has been relatively calm.
But narrative and math are two different things: selling bitcoin to repurchase preferred shares essentially means using bitcoin assets to repair the liability side of the capital structure. This machine's main task now is no longer buying bitcoin $BTC $MSTR #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC，企业财库出现分化 #贝莱德IBIT换购门槛降至100万美元 On the eve of the CPI release, institutional funds for BTC and ETH show a clear divergence, same environment but different fates
Facing the same macroeconomic impact, the two major mainstream coins have taken different paths in terms of funding
As the US CPI inflation data release approaches, the entire crypto market has entered a wait-and-see mode, but the institutional fund movements for BTC and ETH have already shown a visible divergence.
For $BTC, spot ETFs have seen the strongest weekly net inflow in 4 months, totaling $850 million. A large amount of funds have moved from self-custody wallets into compliant ETF products. Local pensions have also indirectly made small allocations to Bitcoin through targets like MSTR, with institutional allocation willingness continuing to warm up. Although funds are entering, institutions have not aggressively pushed the market up, generally maintaining a passive buy-the-dip approach, leaving the directional decision to the CPI results.
In contrast, for $ETH, although the total on-chain staking amount keeps hitting new all-time highs and a large amount of tokens are locked in the beacon chain, reducing circulating supply, the incremental funds flowing into ETH ETFs are very weak. Even though some listed company treasuries continue to accumulate coins in batches, the buying pace has clearly slowed down, no longer sweeping regardless of price, reserving cash to wait for better price ranges.
Here lies a very thought-provoking contrast:
✅ BTC: The ETF channel has become the main institutional entry point, with genuine new external funds flowing in.
✅ ETH: More is the accumulation of existing on-chain locked tokens, with a serious shortage of new incremental off-exchange funds from ETFs.
Both face the same macro risk source:
If CPI is lower than expected and rate cut expectations rise, BTC will first open the upper box space, and ETH will follow the rebound with higher beta characteristics, showing greater elasticity;
If inflation data rebounds beyond expectations, US Treasury yields rise, and risk assets come under collective pressure, both coins will pull back simultaneously, but ETH’s volatility and retracement amplitude are often greater than BTC’s.
Many confuse signals: a new staking high does not mean the coin price will immediately rise; ETF net inflows also do not mean an immediate short-term breakout.
Both have their mid-to-long-term logic highlights, but the short-term strength depends mainly on the tilt direction of new incremental off-exchange funds. Tonight’s data release will truly determine the upcoming BTC/ETH ratio trend Lowering IBIT’s reported minimum in-kind BTC conversion from $25 million to $1 million is less a retail-access story than a market-structure upgrade. Small holders still cannot use the mechanism, but a lower threshold may give institutions and large holders more flexibility to move between spot BTC and IBIT.
My read: this can reduce operational friction and support liquidity, yet it will not create demand by itself. With U.S. spot BTC ETF flows recently weakening, the stronger signal would be whether easier conversion is followed by renewed institutional participation. Not advice, just analysis.
#IBITCutsBTCThresholdGold and silver are making another big move.
Over $1 TRILLION has flowed into both markets in just 12 hours.
Gold is up 2.7%, breaking above $4,400 and adding around $840B in market value.
Silver is up 4.4%, adding another $163B.
Gold: 2-month high
Silver: 7-week high
Precious metals are clearly attracting serious money right now.
#AIInfraEarningsWatch
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge
#AIInfraFundingDiverges #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
Many brothers are waiting for tomorrow's CPI release. I'll share my own views, which do not constitute trading advice.
Tomorrow's CPI is the biggest macro bombshell this week, directly determining the market pricing for the September rate hike.
The market is already very divided, with $ETH funds fragmented, $BTC still under selling pressure, and both bulls and bears watching and waiting for the inflation results to land.
Briefly, here are three scenarios and their impact on the market:
✅ CPI below expectations: Inflation cools down, September rate hike expectations directly cool off, risk assets get a breather. ETH tends to be more elastic than BTC, usually rebounding stronger, but it's only a short-term correction, not a reversal.
⚠️ CPI meets expectations: No surprises in the data, the market continues to maintain the current consolidation pattern, BTC suppresses the overall market, and ETH still gets pulled back and forth by BTC, making it hard to have an independent trend.
❌ CPI above expectations (inflation hotter): The probability of a September rate hike rises sharply, US Treasury yields go up, risk assets face selling pressure. ETH volatility will be more intense than BTC, and high leverage can easily trigger a chain of liquidations.
Objectively speaking, the crypto market is strongly linked to US stocks now, making it hard to move independently from macro trends.
BTC is the market barometer, ETH is a high beta asset; when data comes out, volatility is amplified, so don't be surprised by sharp rises or falls. Before the data lands, avoid heavy positions betting on direction.
Regardless of bullish or bearish, try to reduce leveraged positions. Nighttime CPI spikes and stop hunts are common; waiting for the dust to settle before making choices is much safer. 💧 $7B IN STABLECOINS LEFT BINANCE THIS YEAR — WHERE IS THE LIQUIDITY GOING?
This is a crypto signal worth watching.
Stablecoins are the market's dry powder.
So when billions move out of a major exchange, the question isn't simply whether traders are bullish or bearish.
The bigger question is:
Is that capital still waiting to deploy?
Current OKX Orbit discussion is highlighting roughly $7B in stablecoin outflows from Binance in 2026, raising questions about weakening immediate trading liquidity.
And the timing is interesting.
Because at the same time:
🏦 BTC ETF demand has strengthened
💎 ETH ETF flows have improved
📉 $BTC is struggling around $64K
⏰ CPI is approaching
So we have two very different liquidity signals.
Institutional capital is returning through ETFs.
But exchange-based stablecoin liquidity appears less aggressive.
That could explain why the market feels strangely heavy despite strong ETF headlines.
If stablecoins begin flowing back onto exchanges while ETF demand stays positive, that would be a much stronger risk-on signal.
Until then, I don't want to confuse:
ETF inflows ≠ unlimited market liquidity.
The next crypto move may depend on whether sidelined capital actually returns to the trading ecosystem.
👀 Watch the stablecoins. They may reveal the next rotation before price does.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Stablecoins #Liquidity #Crypto #ETF #CPI
$BTC $ETH $GRVT
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch #AIInfraFundingDiverges 巨鲸为何死守百万空单？
这些空头大鳄（巨鲸）并非单纯看空 $BTC，他们是在赌塞勒溢价的破裂。
* 目前 $MSTR 的市值远高于其持有的 $BTC 净值（NAV）。巨鲸认为：如果我能直接买入 $BTC ETF，为什么要支付 2倍甚至更高 的溢价去买一家背负巨额可转债的软件公司？
* $MSTR 是 $BTC 的“三倍杠杆变体”。在牛市里它是印钞机，但在流动性收紧或横盘期，其高额的利息支出和债务置换压力，让空头看到了“戴维斯双杀”的机会。
* 原因： 他们在等一个黑天鹅或者流动性枯竭的瞬间，将这些溢价一举清零。
MSCI 剔除概率大涨？
市场传闻 2026年年底 的 MSCI 指数季度检讨 可能将 $MSTR 剔除。这就像是原本混迹于“高净值投资圈”的入场券被收回。
* MSCI 对成份股的自由流通市值、流动性及“业务纯粹性”有严格要求。如果 $MSTR 的波动率持续超标，或者被定义为“事实上的投资公司”而非“软件公司”，就会触发强制卖出。
影响：
1.全球追踪 MSCI 的数千亿指数基金必须无差别抛售。
2. 失去机构背书后，$MSTR 会从“科技股”回归到“高杠杆加密代币”UPDATE: BIP-110’s breakaway Bitcoin chain is now 326 blocks behind the main network. 📊
Since splitting, it has produced only 2 blocks, while $BTC kept moving. The fork also inherited Bitcoin’s mining difficulty, but has almost no miner support or market value.
At its current pace, the fork may not reach its next difficulty adjustment for roughly 6.3 years.#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges DRAM chip price increases continue to suppress hardware gross margins, and Apple's testing of new supply chains is unlikely to realize cost reduction benefits in the short term. Capacity constraints and regulatory reviews significantly raise compliance thresholds, putting $AAPL at a disadvantage in storage procurement negotiations. Upstream cost inflation will continue to suppress risk appetite in the tech sector and trigger long position locking. Key indicators to watch are Samsung and Hynix spot prices ceasing to rise and falling, and Changxin standard product supply passing audits.
#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 #贝莱德IBIT换购门槛降至100万美元The market never rewards everyone equally—it only rewards the capital that acts first 👀
Current capital is clearly choosing sides. Varieties like $JTO, $JELLYJELLY, $BTC, $LAB, $ALLO continue to attract liquidity, while $BEAT, $TRUMP, $VIRTUAL, $IP have clearly lost momentum.📉
This is not a broad rally, but a systematic rotation of capital between sectors.
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My watchlist and rhythm
The varieties I’m currently watching include $MEME, $EDEN, $ZKP, $METIS—but I’m not rushing to enter. I wait for dual confirmation from chart structure and capital flow before taking action.
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Current market layering scan
Level Representative Varieties Status
Liquidity Core $BTC Still the central anchor of the entire market
Accumulation Phase $ETH Main capital is quietly positioning
Relatively Strong $SOL Maintaining resilience, leading the mainstream
AI Theme Heating Up $TAO, $WLD Capital is flowing back around the AI narrative
Retail Sentiment Indicators $DOGE, $ZEC Reflect market sentiment and directional fluctuations
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This cycle has taught me:
The best opportunities are often in inconspicuous places.
By the time everyone is shouting buy, easy profits have long disappeared.
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My strategy is simple
1. Track capital flow — liquidity direction determines the trend
2. Wait for confirmation — no predictions, just follow
3. Add positions only when right — increase holdings on a profit basis
4. Always keep enough cash — patience is power, so you have ammo when opportunities arise 💪
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Not investment advice, please research and decide on your own.
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges