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就在 8月18日，这位老兄在 Hyperliquid 上甩出了一张亮瞎眼的卖单：40倍杠杆做空 100枚 BTC，外加 25倍杠杆做空 5,000枚 ETH。总头寸价值高达 1,589万美元。
这哪是交易啊，这简直是在跟死神蹦迪。
在 BTC 价格 $64,000 附近开 40倍空单，意味着市场只要往上涨 2.5%，这 600多万美金就得跟世界说再见。这种倍数，心脏稍微小点的人估计已经进 ICU 了。但离谱的是，他目前竟然还浮盈了 50.3万美元。
这说明 LucasMeow 对短期的盘面下杀有着极强的信心，他是那种看准了就往死里锤的猎手。
最精彩的戏份在 Polymarket。通常大家对冲空单是买个看涨期权，或者反手做点现货，但这位仁兄的脑回路比较清奇：
* 他投了 31.45万美元，押注“中本聪不会移动他的比特币”。
* 他投了 10多万美元，押注“BTC 不会跌破 1.5万到 4.5万美元”。
咱们翻译一下这个逻辑：“我看空，但我求求市场千万别跌成狗。”
这其实是一种极其聪明的尾部风险剥离。他担心如果市场真的发生了“黑天鹅”（比如中本聪显灵、BTC 归零级暴跌），他的交易所Bitcoin Reserves Are Becoming Operating Capital Riot Platforms’ decision to sell 9,665 BTC in the first half of 2026 highlights an important shift in how Bitcoin miners are managing their balance sheets. The company reportedly sold at an average price of $75,785, generating roughly $732 million in cash. With Bitcoin now trading near the $64,000 area, the timing of those sales looks particularly significant. The Key Point: Timing Riot didn’t simply sell Bitcoin. It sold a large portion of its hol#Newbies Must Read: Everything You Need Is Here
For OKX Contract Grid, Should You Choose Cross Margin or Isolated Margin? A Liquidation Case Tells You the Answer
Here's the conclusion first: For contract grids, I only use isolated margin, never cross margin. Even though isolated margin has its pitfalls, cross margin's pitfalls are deeper—deep enough to bury your entire account.
Why am I so afraid of cross margin? Let me tell you a true story.
Last year, a friend of mine ran a BTC contract grid on OKX and chose cross margin for convenience. He had 8000U in his account, set the grid leverage to 3x, and the range between 58000 and 64000. The market oscillated within the range, and the grid ran smoothly, earning him a few dozen U in small profits daily. He thought it was easy money, so he put all the funds he could adjust into the contract account and even told me, "Cross margin is more resistant to liquidation."
Here's the problem. Later, BTC suddenly plunged from around 62000 to 57000 in a flash and then quickly bounced back. Do you know what happens under cross margin mode? The grid wouldn't liquidate because cross margin uses the entire account balance as margin, and 8000U could withstand the flash drop. But surviving the flash drop doesn't mean it can survive a prolonged downtrend. The real killer was BTC's continuous decline to 54000. Under cross margin, the grid kept losing while adding positions, the margin usage rate kept rising, and the account balance dropped from 8000U to 2000U without liquidating. Seeing the remaining balance, he hesitated to manually stop loss, thinking it could recover. Finally, when BTC fell to 53000, the account was liquidated, and the 8000U was wiped out.
What about isolated margin? How does it play out?
In isolated margin mode, you allocate margin separately for each grid, for example, 2000U. Once this money is lost, the grid automatically closes the position, and only this 2000U is liquidated, leaving the remaining 6000U in the account untouched. Sounds like isolated margin is easier to liquidate? Yes, for a single grid, isolated margin is indeed more "fragile." But precisely because it's fragile, it has two lifelines: first, the maximum loss is locked, so you won't drag your entire account down out of stubbornness; second, when isolated margin liquidates, you're forced to stop, which helps you avoid the subsequent downtrend.
So my approach is: for contract grids, only use isolated margin and keep the margin per grid between 5%-10% of total funds.
For example, if my total account funds are 20000U, running a BTC contract grid, I allocate at most 1000-2000U as margin. If it liquidates, I lose 2%-5%, which is bearable. If it profits, I regularly withdraw the profits and transfer them back to stable investments. This way, even if several grids liquidate consecutively, it won't damage the foundation.
How to avoid isolated margin pitfalls?
The biggest pitfall of isolated margin is insufficient margin, causing forced liquidation during flash drops, and then the price rebounds, but the grid is gone. How to avoid this? Two methods: first, don't use too high leverage; I usually use 2-3x for contract grids, never exceeding 5x. Second, leave a safety margin above the range; don't set the upper bound too close to the current price, or a single flash spike can pierce through the upper bound.
Is cross margin really useless?
Not really. If your capital is very small, say only 500U total, and you still want to run contract grids, cross margin might be more practical because isolated margin's margin is too small to open multiple grids. But in this case, I suggest you don't run contract grids at all; go for spot grids instead. Contract grids are designed for those with a certain amount of capital and risk control ability, not for small funds gambling their lives.
In summary:
For contract grids, I choose isolated margin mode, not cross margin. Cross margin seems resistant to liquidation but is actually like boiling a frog slowly, letting you bleed bit by bit in a downtrend until you lose the courage to stop loss. Isolated margin seems fragile but locks your maximum loss with forced liquidation, forcing you to respect risk. In this market, surviving is ten thousand times more important than making quick profits. Isolated margin is my life-saving choice. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
$XIAOMI
Xiaomi Group-W's Q2 financial report for fiscal year 2026 is scheduled to be released after the Hong Kong market closes on August 18. The market consensus for revenue is about ¥108.82 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.15%. This expectation is not new; similar figures have been reported by sources such as Eastmoney, AAStocks, and TipRanks. From the existing data, the smartphone business appears to be experiencing volume decline but price increase. In Q1 2026, smartphone shipments were 33.8 million units, down 19.2% year-on-year; the average selling price was about ¥1310, up 8.2% year-on-year. Regarding automobiles, the SU7 series has surpassed 500,000 cumulative deliveries, but July's YU7 deliveries were about 10,200 units, a significant drop from June, down approximately 28.6% month-on-month. These data reflect the state of affairs over a past period and do not directly indicate tonight's or the near future's direction. Financial reports are more like rearview mirrors; their role is to confirm what has already happened, not to provide new directions for the market. It is also important to note that real stocks on the Hong Kong market and tokenized assets are different products. Hong Kong stock prices are usually influenced by company fundamentals, cash flow, valuation, and liquidity; tokenized assets may be more easily driven by short-term sentiment, expectations, and capital flows. The two should not be simply conflated into the same conclusion. If you plan to focus on these types of assets around tonight, it is recommended to first clearly consider several questions: you are about toWhen will the $BTC bull market really return?
Right now, I'm less focused on short-term price fluctuations and more on one thing: the BTC/Nasdaq ratio.
This ratio has dropped 64% from its 2025 peak, a decline similar in scale to the bear markets of 2018 and 2022.
It has now rebounded 15% from the bottom, but I think it's still early, and we shouldn't rush to call a reversal yet.
What really matters is 3.0.
As long as it doesn't hold above 3.0, it means capital still prefers tech stocks, and BTC is relatively weak compared to the Nasdaq.
But if BTC/Nasdaq breaks above 3.0 again and holds, the situation will be completely different.
At that point, it will be worth seriously considering whether BTC is about to lead the entire market upward again.
So, I'm not rushing to call a bull market now.
Without breaking 3.0, everything is just a rebound; breaking 3.0 is the real signal.$SOL is around $75, but the ETF saw a weekly inflow of $10.26 million: how should this divergence be traded?
SOL is currently around $75, but last week the SOL spot ETF had a net inflow of about $10.26 million, marking the best week since May and a significant increase from about $145,000 the previous week.
This is a typical sign of capital improvement, but the price has not responded noticeably yet.
In this market, I wouldn’t bottom-fish just because of ETF inflows; instead, I watch three signals:
Price no longer making new lows, SOL/$BTC starting to steadily rise, and volume increasing in sync when breaking resistance.
If capital keeps flowing in but SOL can’t break key resistance, it means there are still larger existing sell orders to be absorbed; if the price starts rising and SOL/BTC strengthens, it indicates that the incremental ETF funds are gradually changing the supply-demand structure.
Additionally, recently an address that previously profited over $20 million on SOL repurchased about 47,535 SOL, worth around $3.6 million. Such whale data can help gauge sentiment but should not be taken directly as a buy signal.
Capital flow tells us where to pay attention; price confirmation tells us when it’s worth trading.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Miner Surrender and Hashrate Recovery: $BTC Is Clearing the Last "Panic Chips" »
Recently, market attention has focused on ETFs and macro factors, but a more fundamental force is at work on-chain—the behavior of miners. Bitcoin's hashrate continues to hit all-time highs, but miner revenue is under pressure due to stagnant coin prices and declining transaction fees. This divergence of "rising hashrate, falling revenue" often signals an impending miner surrender.
Miner surrender is not bearish but a cyclical cleansing. Inefficient miners shut down, efficient miners continue operating, hashrate temporarily drops, then rebounds with difficulty adjustment. Historically, every significant miner surrender corresponds to a local price bottom. Miners are the most direct "forced sellers," needing to pay electricity bills and having no choice based on belief.
Current on-chain data shows increased net outflows from miner wallets, with some old mining farms selling inventory to maintain operations. This will increase selling pressure in the short term, but unlike 2022, the market depth is better now, and there are spot ETF channels, so selling is unlikely to trigger a chain collapse. What truly deserves attention is the speed of hashrate recovery. If the hashrate quickly rebounds after a brief dip, it indicates the industry has completed efficient elimination. When selling pressure is exhausted, that will be the day a new supply-demand balance is established. $BTC is eerily quiet. Last weekend's single-day volatility was only 0.7% and 0.3%, hovering between 62,000 and 66,000 for almost two months, with volume shrinking smaller and smaller. This calm doesn't mean the risk has disappeared; the risk is being compressed in a narrow range, holding back a big move.
1. The 30-day volatility has dropped to a historic low. Fundstrat backtested this scenario 8 times in history; in the following 60 days, the median absolute price change was 30.2%, with 4 times up and 4 times down. The direction is unpredictable, but a big move is very likely on the way.
2. It looks like the late stage of a bear market. 52,699 is the old cost line, 67,176 is the new trapped holders, and 63,200 is the two-week pivot. Spot volume has fallen back to 2019 levels, and on-chain transfer speed is at a seven-year low. Despite new highs in US stocks and easing inflation, none of the positive news has reached the crypto space—ETFs saw a net outflow of $385 million last week, and stablecoins shrank to 300.7 billion.
But it’s not dead yet.
3. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, the highest since 2007. The era of cheap money is over, and this sword is hanging over us.
My take: Now everyone should focus on three major signals—continuous net inflows into ETFs, a turning point in stablecoin supply, and a halt in spot volume decline. If none of these three are met, this sideways movement is just a pause before a drop.
Today's rebound is short covering, not real buying, so don't rush to chase. Now is the time to choose a direction, not to gamble. The easiest way to get wiped out is by sudden spikes; better to wait for a clear direction and then buy the dip. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 On August 18, BTC climbed back above 64,000. It looks like the price has rebounded, but don't rush to translate this bullish candlestick into a reversal. First, look at the money. At the same time, US spot BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $390 million last week, marking the largest single-week outflow since June. The previous week saw a net inflow of around $850 million, but then changed dramatically. While prices are rising, traditional ETF funds are withdrawing outward. Then let's see who is carrying the sedan chair. 24-hour leveraged liquidations amounted to about $185.63 million, with short liquidations accounting for 79.13%, nearly 3.8 times the amount of long positions. In other words, a large part of this upward movement was forced liquidation by short positions, while buying was driven out by liquidation orders, not by new funds actively chasing in. The geopolitical situation is even more chaotic. Around August 17, the 60-day ceasefire window expired, and there were reports that both sides planned to extend the ceasefire, causing BTC to surge in the short term. Immediately after, Iran's Foreign Ministry denied that "60 days is the negotiation deadline," and gave back part of the price increase. What does this look like? For example, on the message side, you first give a piece of candy, then take it back. Prices rising, ETF withdrawals, short sellers blowing up the stock—these three signals come together. The biggest danger isn't whether prices will rise or not, but that retail investors tend to mistake prices for cash returning. Cash flow is a signal, not a conclusion. Geopolitical situations change rapidly, and the market can reverse at any time. Today's article only records the situation as of August 18, so don't use a single bullish candlestick to explain the direction. With🚨 DON’T PANIC. WATCH THE MONEY. $BTC is holding around $64K after its rebound, while Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded roughly $137.3M in net inflows on August 17. That doesn't guarantee an immediate breakout—but it does show that institutional demand hasn't disappeared. Meanwhile, $ETH is starting to attract more attention as the ETH/BTC ratio breaks above a long-term downtrend, suggesting Ethereum may be attempting to regain relative strength. But there's still a key distinction: A strong structure 比特币$BTC 正站在“公平抛硬币”的十字路口 未来60天，$BTC 要么8.3万，要么4.5万$ 过去几周，比特币像被人按了暂停键。6.4万美元附近来回磨，涨不动也跌不动，盘面安静得让人想睡觉。 但越是安静，越要清醒。 Fundstrat数字资产策略主管Sean Farrell复盘了比特币历史上8次30日波动率降至历史极低水平的样本。 结果是随后60天，比特币价格的绝对变动幅度中位数——30.2%。#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 8次里面，4次涨、4次跌。 这不是什么玄学指标。这是经得起回测的市场规律—— 低波动之后必有大波动。 现在的问题是：你是押涨30%，还是押跌30%？ 把数字翻译成真金白银—— 以当前6.4万美元计算： 涨30% → 8.32万美元 跌30% → 4.48万美元 上下差了将近4万美元。 这不是小行情，这是“财富再分配级别”的波动。 Farrell自己说了：周一那波2%的反弹，主要是空头平仓驱动的，不是新增买盘。 自上周五以来，比特币计价的期货未平仓量下降了约8%。空头在撤退，但多头并没有大举进场。 这是一场“没人想当对手盘”的僵局。 更扎心的是：全#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
Xiaomi's latest earnings report brings no surprises, nor a collapse. It clearly reveals the true state of a company transitioning from a phone manufacturer to a "people, cars, and home full ecosystem" enterprise during a hardware cycle downturn: proactively reducing volume while improving quality, enduring gross margin pressure, and continuously increasing investment in R&D and automotive expansion. Short-term profit pressure is the cost, while long-term competitiveness and user barriers are the goals. Storage costs will eventually decline, automotive scale effects will gradually emerge, and AI implementation efficiency will determine premium capability. For investors, the real focus should not be on whether next quarter's profits rise by a few points, but on whether the move upmarket can be maintained, the speed at which automotive losses narrow, and whether ecosystem synergy truly translates into higher user value and profitability. Cycles always pass; the key is what is left behind after navigating through them. #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 $SNDK $XIAOMI $ETH The core logic now is no longer just "whether the Ethereum network is developing well," but how much value can actually flow back into ETH itself as the entire on-chain economy expands. Several areas to watch currently include: spot ETF capital flows, stablecoin scale, DeFi activity, and L2 settlement demand. Recently, ETH has been fluctuating repeatedly around $1,900. Although on-chain ecosystems and institutional attention remain, price performance has not yet fully reflected these fundamental changes. Especially with BTC consolidating around $64,000, whether ETH can regain capital rotation is a key point to watch going forward. If subsequent events occur: 📌 continued net inflows 📌 of ETH spot ETFs, continued growth in stablecoin supply and on-chain transfers 📌, recovery in 📌 DeFi staking and trading activity, further expansion 📌 of L2 settlement demand, and ETH/BTC beginning to stabilize and rebound, the market may reassess ETH's valuation, and funds could further spread from BTC to ETH. But the risks are equally obvious. High-performance public chains like Solana are still competing for users, liquidity, and developer resources; Meanwhile, after the rapid expansion of the L2 ecosystem, how much economic value generated by the network ultimately accumulates into ETH rather than being absorbed by other participants remains a question the market needs to verify. So I won't just look at ETH price now. What truly deserves attention is: on-chain activity growth → capital inflows → ETH requiredPre-market plunge of 6%! SNDK SanDisk suddenly dives, don't panic
$SNDK #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
This morning, many friends saw SanDisk sharply drop pre-market, hitting a low near $1680, with a single-day maximum drop of nearly 6%. Immediately, everyone started looking for bad news, fearing the company had major issues.
First, let me reassure you: this drop is not due to any SanDisk-specific disaster. There are no sudden negative announcements, no earnings failures, no company-level bad news. It's purely a sector-wide cooldown + short-term profit-taking by funds combined with macroeconomic pressure.
Let's talk about the most direct market contrast: yesterday SanDisk just surged strongly by 8.88%. After a day of rallying, a lot of short-term profit-taking piled up. Pre-market liquidity is thin, so a small amount of selling can massively amplify the drop. The hot money chasing the rally the day before cashed out in bulk at the open the next day, directly pushing the price down.
Moreover, this is not just SanDisk weakening alone; the entire AI storage sector is wiped out. Micron also fell sharply, SK Hynix ADR followed down, and the whole memory and NAND chip sector weakened collectively. This is a sector sentiment retreat, not a problem with individual fundamentals.
On the macro environment: long-term US Treasury yields rose again, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell simultaneously. In a high interest rate environment, the first to be cut are tech growth stocks that surged explosively this year and have high valuations. The storage sector's exaggerated gains this year naturally make it a priority for funds to reduce holdings. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #BTC dormant supply hits a new high, scarcity draws renewed attention $BTC $BTC If 63,000 is lost, could it trigger a chain drop to 57,000?
Currently, $BTC is still fluctuating around 64,000, but leveraged longs really need to watch 57,000. Alphractal data shows a large number of long positions have liquidation prices concentrated around this level.
Once touched, forced liquidations by exchanges could turn a normal pullback into a rapid crash.
The first line of defense is currently 63,200, which is the recent median realized price and has provided support over the past two weeks.
If it breaks down effectively, the June low of 57,800 will likely come back into view.
More troubling is that the current open interest relative to volume is high, with many bets in the market but thin liquidity to absorb them.
This risk is not just from bearish market sentiment but from overly crowded long positions.
Price drops trigger liquidations, which further push prices down—that's why 57,000 is dangerous.
However, longs do not necessarily have to face cascading liquidations.
BTC has held above 62,000 despite multiple macro headwinds, and a reverse head and shoulders pattern may be forming on the daily chart.
If confirmed by the market, the target could be 76,000.
Key to watch is whether 63,200 can hold and if there is real volume during any rebound.
Low volume does not mean low risk; it may actually amplify the next breakout.
#BTC dormant supply hits a new high, scarcity draws renewed attention 美欧合约涨跌榜复盘：放量滞涨与AI退潮同现，风险偏好正在收缩 若上涨榜靠小市值异动支撑、下跌榜由高成交AI概念主导，市场是处于轮动还是退潮？ 原榜单一早时段呈现明显不对称结构。上涨榜前几位PIEVERSE、OFC、VVV均为低成交额小市值币，单日涨幅集中在5%至12%区间，但成交额普遍仅在数亿至数十亿级别，属于典型突发性脉冲行情，缺乏持续资金承接基础。COMP作为老牌DeFi协议单日涨7.03%，更接近超跌后的防守性修复而非趋势反转。值得警惕的是GPS，成交额高达228.88亿但涨幅仅4.24%，放量滞涨意味着多空分歧急剧放大，高位换手活跃但价格无法推进，通常被视作短期筹码松动的前兆。 下跌榜的指向性更明确。KAITO单日下跌12.9%领跌，叠加OG、BICO等AI及基础设施概念同步走弱，说明前期AI叙事热度正在系统性降温。BEAT延续跌势且成交额124.78亿，高位放量下杀往往代表主力资金在派发而非吸筹。AEON昨日上涨今日直接回落7.82%，这种隔夜反转形态是短线投机资金快进快出的典型痕迹，对追高者构成直接风险。 从跨市场传导逻辑看，当前盘面核心矛盾不是资金在不同板块间轮动，而是风The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, a nineteen-year high, causing global risk asset discount models to tighten rapidly. The semiconductor leaders heavily investing in capacity expansion are now hitting a hard wall with long-term interest rates.
$SKHYNIX surged nearly 9% in early trading on the Korean stock market before retreating to a slight gain, while its US ADR fell about 5% pre-market, resonating with Micron and other memory stocks in a cross-market downward movement.
Geopolitical tensions pushed crude oil prices back above $90, combined with increased US Treasury issuance, further raising inflation expectations and pushing up risk-free asset yields.
The rapid rise in risk-free rates directly lowers the valuation baseline for long-duration growth stocks, causing capital expenditures on new factories and locked-in capacity benefits to temporarily take a backseat before the discount model is restructured.
If cloud providers continue to raise prices to secure long-term supply agreements and the spot supply gap widens, upward revisions in profit expectations will offset the impact of discount rates, stabilizing and rebounding stock prices; however, if end-user capital expenditure guidance is cut, this support will quickly fail.
If oil prices remain high and force long-term yields even higher, the high-valuation semiconductor sector will face forced deleveraging and liquidity squeezes, with a break below key moving averages accelerating sell-offs; a substantial easing of geopolitical tensions would directly end this breakdown pressure.
The tug-of-war between capacity shortages and valuation contraction continues. Once energy supply channels recover and inflation expectations drop sharply, the logic of interest rates suppressing asset valuations will be disproven.
In the next 24 hours after the US market opens, whether long-term US Treasury yields can maintain effective resistance above 5.31% is key to judging whether the semiconductor sector’s valuation sell-off will spread.
#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 比特币近期依旧处于震荡消化阶段，但链上筹码结构正在悄然发生变化。 最新链上数据模型显示，BTC长期持有者的综合成本区域约在 5.05万美元附近。按照当前约 6.4万美元的价格计算，价格约为长期成本的 1.27倍，仍处于历史上相对偏低的估值区间。 更值得关注的是长期持有者的持仓意愿。 目前长期持有者掌握的BTC供应量约为 1,625万枚，距离历史高位仅有很小差距。过去一段时间，尽管BTC持续横盘、短线资金耐心不断下降，但长期筹码并没有出现明显的大规模释放。 这意味着一个重要变化： 卖方正在变薄，但买方还没有完全接力。 近期BTC成交量持续收缩，市场流动性仍然偏谨慎。与此同时，现货ETF资金流向也出现反复，前期强劲的资金流入并没有持续保持。如果ETF重新出现连续的大额净流入，同时链上成交量和衍生品多头需求同步回升，那么这可能成为BTC结束震荡、向上突破的重要催化剂。 📌 我现在更关注三个信号： ① BTC能否守住6万美元上方的长期成本区域 ② ETF是否重新出现连续净流入 ③ 成交量和新增杠杆是否伴随价格一起扩张 如果长期筹码继续锁仓，而新增资金开始明显回流，供应收缩最终可能演变成真正的The US Treasury’s proposed GENIUS Act rules shift the stablecoin debate from broad principles toward jurisdiction and distribution. By defining when issuance occurs in the US and when tokens are offered to US persons, the framework could make licensing status a practical gate for both issuers and platforms.
The staggered deadlines matter: approval generally applies to US issuance from Jan 18, 2027, while providers serving US users generally face licensed-issuer requirements from Jul 18, 2028. My read is that this sequencing gives markets time to adapt, but may also concentrate liquidity around issuers able to secure approval. The public-comment process is therefore material for USDC, USDT and exchanges. Not advice, just analysis.
#GENIUSRulesProposedSaylor confirmed that the strategy company increased its USD reserves by $150 million and repurchased $132 million of $STRC, extending the USD maturity to 2.8 years, and tightened STRC's Bitcoin credit spread to 114 basis points. As of August 16, the holdings were 840,447 bitcoins and $4.8 billion in USD reserves.
Here is the pattern hidden behind the regular numbers. This is the fourth consecutive week of this precise operation: selling some Bitcoin, using the proceeds to fund STRC repurchases, and bolstering cash reserves. Moreover, the strategy company has been doing this while holding a paper loss of about $8.7 billion on its total Bitcoin position, selling Bitcoin below its own average cost basis of $75,419 to keep the company running.
The narrowing credit spread (114 basis points, down 4 basis points) is the most important figure here; it is a real-time reading of the market's confidence in STRC's Bitcoin-backed structure's ability to continue repaying debt. The narrower the spread, the more confident the market is in its debt repayment ability, even when realizing losses.
Trading signal: This is not a direct Bitcoin signal; this is a story about a company's balance sheet. It is worth paying special attention to MSTR and STRC rather than viewing this as a bullish or bearish signal for Bitcoin itself.
Is this prudent balance sheet management in tough times, or is the accumulation thesis quietly collapsing?
$ETH $BTC $SNDK
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 63,000 bottom confirmed? $BTC long-term holders continue to increase.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that the current average cost for long-term holders is about $49,400, with an unrealized profit of around 30%, but these coins have not noticeably flowed into the market.
These holders collectively own 16.35 million BTC, just 58,000 coins shy of the all-time high, having increased by 1.38 million coins over the past 90 days.
In the last half month, supply has only decreased on 2 days, indicating very weak signs of continuous selling.
According to the cost model, Bitcoin has also been in a low-risk zone for 78 consecutive days.
This data model is positive for the supply side but should not be seen as a reason for a subsequent price increase.
Long-term holders not selling only reduces selling pressure; for the price to truly break out, new funds must come in to buy.
The current market looks more like "coins are held, but there is no new buying demand."
Going forward, continue to observe whether spot ETF capital flows and prices can break through $74,000 with increased volume.
Without confirmation, low selling pressure can only support the bottom; a new market cycle is still far away.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 The market is indeed quite boring right now, with $BTC and $ETH prices showing little volatility, but the trading volume and open interest data tell a completely different story. BTC's market cap is about $1.26 trillion, ETH's about $225 billion, and the total crypto market cap is around $2.25 trillion. Simply put, BTC accounts for about 56%, ETH only 10%, and the ETH/BTC ratio is hovering around 0.03, indicating the market is clearly conservative in its relative valuation of ETH.
What’s really interesting is that while volume is declining, institutions are continuously increasing their positions. On the BTC side, ETF holdings are rising, the number of long-term holders is increasing, and exchange balances are steadily dropping; ETH’s ETF holdings are also growing, staking locked amounts are up, and the circulating supply on-chain is decreasing. In short, chips are flowing out of exchanges and being locked into long-term positions, so selling pressure is gradually being absorbed.
The phase of low liquidity requires the most caution: both buy and sell orders are thin, so once a catalyst appears, price moves can be easily amplified. It’s not price increases attracting funds now, but funds pre-positioning in anticipation of catalysts. BTC is waiting on macro factors, such as interest rate paths and accelerated ETF inflows; ETH is waiting on application rollouts and institutional repricing, lacking a new narrative.
So, BTC and ETH are not competing over the presence of funds right now, but over whose catalyst arrives first. BTC watches macro, ETH watches applications. The calmer the market, the more you need to guard against sudden big moves.
This is purely personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.4 Solid Logical Reasons Why I Heavily Shorted
$SNDK
⚠️ Objective market interpretation only, not investment advice
1. Valuation bubble completely overextends expectations
Surged over 170% this year, the market prices cyclical flash memory stocks as AI growth stocks, most of the rally has already priced in future price hikes, massive profit-taking positions piled up at high levels ready to be cashed out anytime.
2. Earnings rely entirely on price hikes, real demand is weak
Two-thirds of revenue depends on NAND price increases, mobile and PC consumer storage continue to decline due to inventory reduction; only AI business supports the bottom line, once flash memory prices ease, gross margin will plummet sharply.
3. Capacity will be released in 2027, cycle turning point approaching
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia new factories will start mass production in the second half of the year, NAND supply growth will exceed AI demand growth, current shortage is only a short-term illusion, flash memory price hike benefits are about to peak.
4. Institutional shorts + major shareholder sell-offs create double negative
Citron publicly released a short report, pointing out that storage supply and demand is a mirage; parent company Western Digital's large discounted sell-off, high-level shareholders exiting is a clear peak signal.
The market is run by time, not by emotions and speculation Nvidia isn't just selling AI chips anymore. It's becoming part of the financing behind AI itself.
From equity stakes to backing data center projects, Nvidia is helping shape demand while managing its own risk.
That's a smart strategy, but it also ties chip sales more closely to customer funding. Is Nvidia building a stronger ecosystem or taking on more hidden risk? #XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals 加密矿企正在将比特币储备转化为运营资金。 Lookonchain监测显示，Riot Platforms在2026年上半年以平均75,785美元的价格出售了9,665枚BTC，总价值约7.3246亿美元。 数据解读 出售均价75,785美元：这一价格高于当前比特币价格约64,000美元，意味着Riot在年初比特币处于相对高位时完成了大部分出售。如果Riot继续持有这些BTC至当前价格，其价值将缩水约1.14亿美元。 9,665枚BTC的体量：按当前价格计算，这批BTC价值约6.18亿美元。Riot选择在75,000美元以上区间出售，体现了其在市场高位锁定利润的策略。 矿企现金为王：Riot的大规模出售反映了矿企在当前市场环境下的普遍策略——将挖矿产出及时变现，以覆盖运营成本和资本开支，而非囤积BTC等待更高价格。 写在最后 Riot Platforms以75,785美元的均价出售近1万枚BTC，套现7.32亿美元——这不是看空，而是矿企在运营层面的现金流管理。 当比特币价格从75,000美元以上回落至64,000美元时，Riot的出售时机显得尤为关键。对于矿企而言，卖出时机的选择直接影响Haven't checked US stocks for a long time, and I got such a big surprise as soon as I logged in. SanDisk dropped all the way from 1827 to 1673, down 150 points. This is not a pullback, this is basically giving money away.
No second thoughts, bought more.
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Macro Market Analysis
#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
The logic is simple — with US Treasury yields so high, institutional funds are pulling out of tech stocks to buy bonds. SanDisk, as a leading AI storage company, naturally got dragged down, falling over 4% pre-market.
But the question is: has SanDisk's fundamentals changed? Not at all.
---
#SanDisk closes up over 8%, long-term agreements in focus
The $93.9 billion NBM long-term agreement is right there, and Anthropic disclosed a July annualized revenue run rate of $65 billion, up significantly from $47 billion in May. AI computing demand is not cooling down; it's accelerating.
Macro sentiment caused the sell-off, but fundamentals are solid. This kind of opportunity is too good to pass up.
---
Personal Strategy Sharing
· Direction: Long 20x
· Entry average price: 1,683.6
· Stop loss: 1,616 (near liquidation price)
· Target: 1,750 (exit once reached, no greed)
US Treasury yields won't keep rising forever. Once sentiment recovers, SanDisk will bounce back.
Once this hits 1750, I'll close the position.
Brothers, let's chat in the comments
$SNDK XAU price dropped to near the lower Bollinger Band + 120 moving average and showed clear resistance to further decline, with multiple probes failing to break through. Although short-term moving averages are exerting pressure, momentum is starting to weaken and the downward force is diminishing. In the evening, participation can be considered around the 4380-4360 support area.
Resistance above at 4420/4465.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
After discussing the three business lines, I actually feel more cautious. I checked the $XIAOMI market page; Q2 adjusted net profit dropped 42.6% year-over-year, revenue only fell 6.1%, but profit was halved. The phone segment is propped up by price increases, the car business is still losing money, and AIoT monetization is weak. None of the three lines can independently support the valuation. Overall, I'm bearish this time and won't chase the highs. After opening a long position on $BTC at 63500, BTC rebounded from the 63000 low early this morning and is currently hovering around 64100—64400. The entire network saw $216 million liquidated in the past 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $179 million (82.8%). A total of 59,879 people were liquidated. A $125 million whale short position was cut by 1,200 coins and 288 coins liquidated, accumulating losses exceeding $1.56 million. Technically, BTC reclaimed the 20-day moving average at 63878 and the 50-day moving average at 63723, but it is still suppressed by the 200-day moving average at 69180, so the medium-term outlook remains bearish.
$SKHYNIX Korean stocks really suffered. Initially, the Korean market surged strongly in the morning, with SK Hynix rising over 8.9% at one point and the KOSPI index surging more than 3%. However, overnight the 30-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.31%, a new high since 2007, causing the Korean market to crash. In the afternoon, the KOSPI index plunged further, closing down 1.55%, ending a five-day winning streak. Samsung reversed to close down 2.19%, and SK Hynix's gains narrowed to just 1.03%. Even worse, in pre-market US trading tonight, the memory sector collectively plunged, with SK Hynix ADR down about 4%—5.6% and Micron down about 4%—5%. The fundamentals are actually strong: two new factories in Yongin and Cheongju invested $38.4 billion, the chairman shouted "memory shortage," and customers are demanding double supply—but valuations are pressured by interest rates, so even good news can't hold up the market.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 This is exactly the moment the Bitcoin bull market begins
The BTC/Nasdaq ratio has dropped 64% from its 2025 peak, similar to what happened in 2018 and 2022.
Currently, BTC/Nasdaq has risen 15% from the bottom, but this cannot be seen as a trend reversal.
As long as it stays below the 3.0 level, Bitcoin will continue to underperform.
But once BTC/Nasdaq breaks above 3.0, Bitcoin will start leading the market.凌晨四点关掉K线的时候，我忽然有点后背发凉。 你有没有发现，最近赚钱的难度，好像悄悄换了一种方式？ 今晚美欧合约涨跌榜更新，我看完第一反应不是兴奋，而是警觉。涨幅榜前排，PIEVERSE、OFC、VVV，全是交易额几亿的小票，靠一根突兀的阳线刷存在感。而跌幅榜上，KAITO 直接 -12.9%，BEAT 连续阴跌，AEON 昨天还在榜上笑，今天就跌了 7.8%。这不是轮动，这是资金在撤退，而且撤退得很不体面。 真正让我停下来多看了两眼的，是 GPS。它今天成交额冲到了 228 亿，但涨幅只有 4.24%。这说明什么？有人在里面剧烈换手，但价格推不上去，多空分歧已经到了一个很脆弱的位置。这种放量滞涨，往往是变盘的前奏，只不过方向还没亮牌。 再看 COMP，老 DeFi 龙头，今天涨了 7%，但成交量只有 4.5 亿。这个量级撑不起趋势反转，顶多算超跌后的防御性回弹。它更像是在告诉市场，资金没有找到新方向，只能捡点便宜货。 我现在的感受是，市场进入了一个典型的"情绪空窗期"。大饼没选方向，山寨各自为战，热钱像无头苍蝇一样乱撞，撞到哪个小票就拉一根针，然后第二天就埋人。AEON 就是今天的活Pre-market plunge of 6%! SNDK SanDisk suddenly dives, don’t panic, there’s no sudden black swan event
$SNDK $SNDK
This morning, many friends saw SanDisk sharply drop pre-market, hitting a low near $1680, with a single-day maximum drop of nearly 6%. Immediately, everyone started looking for bad news, fearing the company had major problems.
First, let me reassure you: this drop is not due to any SanDisk-specific disaster. There are no sudden negative announcements, no earnings failures, no company-level bad news. It’s purely a sector-wide cooldown plus short-term profit-taking by funds combined with macroeconomic pressure.
Let’s start with the most intuitive market contrast: yesterday SanDisk surged strongly by 8.88%. After such a one-day rally, a lot of short-term profit-taking piled up. Pre-market liquidity is thin, so a small amount of selling can greatly amplify the decline. The hot money chasing the rally the day before cashed out massively at the open the next day, directly pushing the price down.
Moreover, this is not just SanDisk weakening alone; the entire AI storage sector is collapsing. Micron also fell sharply, SK Hynix ADR dropped, and the whole memory and NAND chip sector weakened collectively. This is a sector sentiment retreat, not a fundamental problem with individual stocks.
Now about the macro environment: long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose again, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell simultaneously. In a high-interest-rate environment, the first to be cut are tech growth stocks that surged explosively this year and have high valuations. The storage sector’s gains this year were exaggerated, so it naturally became a priority for funds to reduce holdings.
Another key point: market expectations for SanDisk and the storage sector have long been fully priced in.
Previously, funds wildly bet on AI data center SSD demand and continued NAND supply tightness, pricing in all the future price increase benefits and profit margins into the stock price ahead of time. Now, without new major positive catalysts, high-level chips naturally have profit-taking demand. Plus, storage is a strongly cyclical industry. Funds are starting to worry in advance about subsequent capacity expansions by major manufacturers, supply increases, and the resulting chip price and gross margin declines. When risk aversion kicks in, they sell off first.
To sum it up plainly:
Yesterday’s strong rally overextended short-term momentum. Today, the sector collectively cools off, macro yields pressure, and high-level chips cash out. Multiple factors combined to cause the pre-market plunge, which is not a fundamental black swan event.
Next, focus on two signals to judge whether this is just short-term volatility or a weakening trend:
1. Trading volume after the official open: if volume expands but prices continue to fall, it means sector funds are truly withdrawing; if the open sees support and quick narrowing of the decline, it’s likely just a false panic caused by pre-market liquidity.
2. The subsequent performance of peers like Micron and Hynix: as long as the storage sector doesn’t collectively crash further, SanDisk’s pullback is just a normal high-level shakeout.
Friendly reminder: The above is only a market logic review and does not constitute any investment advice. Important news
In recent days, the long-term yields of government bonds in developed countries worldwide, including Japan, the US, France, Germany, and the UK, have surged dramatically. For example, today, the 30-year US Treasury yield rose overnight to the highest level in nearly twenty years, reaching 5.304%.
Some friends have asked what this means, so here is an explanation.
Interest rates, or real interest rates, are the most important guiding indicators in macroeconomics. The rise in global long-term interest rates indicates two things:
1. The market is starting to vote with its feet: at the beginning of August, the US Treasury debt size exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, raising concerns about the sustainability of US debt and interest pressure;
2. Capital is beginning to bet that long-term inflation will be hard to reduce, and the market will need to use high interest rates to suppress high inflation. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Yushu will be listed on the STAR Market on August 19, 2026, with an issue price of ¥150.80 per share, corresponding to a market capitalization of approximately ¥60.993 billion, and is expected to raise about ¥6.099 billion.
Why am I bearish in the short term?
The core reason is just one sentence:
Good company + high expectations + high valuation = very likely to become a good company with a bad price.
Yushu's net profit excluding non-recurring items in 2025 is about ¥591 million. Based on the issue market value of ¥60.993 billion, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratio at issuance is about 219 times.
This means the market has already priced in:
"The future of robotics will definitely explode, Yushu will definitely be the leader, and future profits will grow rapidly."
The problem is:
These futures have already been bought in advance by the price.
⸻
More dangerously: profit growth in 2026 does not keep up
This is my main concern.
First half of 2026:
* Revenue about ¥1.152 billion
* Year-on-year growth 48.54%
* Net profit excluding non-recurring items about ¥244 million
* Year-on-year decline 19.34% Bitcoin broke above $64,000, but do not rush to celebrate yet. 📊
ETH is below 1900, XRP is under $1, and BNB and DOGE remain flat.
Price is still stuck in the $62,000–$65,000 range below key moving averages.
Heavy unlocks arrive August 20 for KAITO ($9-11M) and LayerZero ZRO ($19M).
Do not mistake this solo move for a full market breakout. Observe first.🟢 DÒNG TIỀN #CRYPTO đang vào ròng +$35.1M trong phiên gần nhất | BTC: +$137.3M (ngày 17/08) 📊 HÔM NAY ▪️ Tổng phiên gần nhất: +$35.1M (vào ròng) ▪️ Stablecoin: +$35.1M ▪️ ETF cùng ngày: n/a — ETF mới nhất là T-1, không gộp chung ngày 📊 ETF MỚI NHẤT (ngày 17/08) ▪️ BTC: +$137.3M (ngày 17/08) ▪️ ETH: +$5.0M (ngày 17/08) ▪️ Altcoin: +$0 (ngày 17/08) ▪️ ETF lũy kế trong cửa sổ: +$860.5M 📊 CỬA SỔ 29/07-18/08/2026 · 21 phiên ▪️ ETF: +$860.5M ▪️ Stablecoin: −$1.83B ▪️ Tổng dòng tiền ròng: −$970.5M Now calmly analyze
Where are the AI opportunities in the next phase?
Recently, I researched the upstream and downstream industrial chains and related companies of indium phosphide, CCL, supercapacitors, heat dissipation, and MLCC.
I feel that materials will be the biggest bottleneck for AI in the future. The more core products move upstream, the more they are controlled by overseas companies, especially Japanese companies, and the longer the expansion cycles.
For example, the evolution in the optical field from optical modules to optical chips to indium phosphide materials, and the upstream materials of PCBs are similar. Although PCB expansion cycles are fast, the verification threshold for upstream materials is high.
The ABF film is even more difficult to replace across the entire industry chain from process to equipment to materials. In the heat dissipation field, graphene, diamond, and diamond copper continuously iterate and upgrade existing materials to improve heat dissipation performance.
The expansion of supercapacitors is greatly restricted by the supply of porous carbon materials from Japan's Kuraray materials. The upstream release films of MLCC have very high thresholds for high-end release films, with a single production line investment of several hundred million yuan,
and it takes more than one or two years to put into production and installation. Price increases in the future are highly probable. A batch of companies related to this will grow into major stocks.
Another visible opportunity is at the system level. Previously, one company handled PCB and optical modules, which was relatively simple to iterate. Later, CPO, liquid cooling, power, and TOKEN factories are all system-level comprehensive capabilities.
Companies emerging in this area will have great opportunities. I will elaborate on this field another time.
No need to worry too much about macro and market trends; focus more on segmented industries and company performance progress. This might be the best $BTC $BTC chart you'll see today. Take a close look at what happened near all previous all-time highs.
Bitcoin repeatedly breaks through previous ATHs but then sharply reverses, liquidating traders who had bet on further gains.
In other words, Bitcoin's price history is full of traps and false breakouts.
$ETH has consistently repeated this pattern for years, eventually causing many investors to completely give up on the market. And whenever the market tries to push higher, there's already a large liquidity pool waiting below.
As long as the market hasn't fully cleansed excessive bullish sentiment and leverage, forming sustained upward momentum becomes much more difficult.
This pattern has repeatedly appeared throughout Bitcoin's history, and it is likely to continue. Because ultimately, what drives the market is liquidity, position sizing, and human behavior.#高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 Xiaomi's official Q2 2026 earnings announcement is now live, with the management call scheduled for 7:30 PM tonight. Once the numbers came out, the overall signal from the financial report was quite clear. Xiaomi's Q2 revenue was 108.92 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 9.9% quarter-on-quarter, below the market consensus of about 112.2 billion yuan; Adjusted net profit was 6.22 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year, also below the market expectation of about 6.6 billion yuan. Cumulative revenue for the first half of the year was 208.06 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit was 12.29 billion yuan, down 42.8% year-on-year. Looking at the headline alone, this is a report with a significantly lower base than the same period last year, with particularly obvious profit pressure. Breaking down the business structure, Xiaomi is undergoing a significant revenue restructuring: smartphones and domestic IoT are shrinking, automobiles are rapidly expanding their revenue share, the internet continues to provide high gross cash flow, AI is entering commercial revenue, and R&D and automotive investments keep short-term profits suppressed. The most noteworthy aspect of this financial report is that Xiaomi has gradually shifted from a company that relies solely on smartphone sales to a stage where its profit structure is jointly determined by smartphones, AIoT, internet, automobiles, and AI. In the second quarter, smartphone × AIoT revenue was 84.03 billion yuan, accounting for 77.1% of total revenue, compared to 81.7% in the same period last year; Smart electric vehicles,$BTC US Treasury market suddenly sounds the alarm
The yield on the 30-year US Treasury rose above 5.31%, reaching about 5.33% intraday, hitting the highest level since 2007
This is not ordinary volatility; global capital is repricing the long-term risks of the US
The most contradictory part of the market now is: the dollar is weakening, short-term rate hike expectations are cooling, but long-term Treasuries continue to be sold off
Why is no one willing to buy long-term bonds at low yields?
Several major pressures are at play: the US fiscal deficit continues to widen, the scale of Treasury issuance remains high, tech giants are increasing financing for AI capital expenditures, and inflation concerns arise as oil prices climb back above $90
In other words, the market may not be too worried about the Fed continuing to raise rates in the short term, but is increasingly concerned about fiscal, inflation, and debt supply issues over the coming decades
This is the real reason why long-term rates and short-term expectations are diverging
For the market, 5.31% is not an ordinary number
If long-term rates keep rising, it will directly increase funding costs across the financial system and depress valuations of future cash flows. High-valuation tech stocks, growth stocks, and liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC will all feel the pressure
Especially now that oil prices and Treasury yields are rising in tandem, meaning the market is worried about both weakening growth and a resurgence of inflation
If the 30-year yield continues to push higher, BTC could face a more intense short-term volatility
Going forward, don’t just focus on the coin price; the US Treasury yield spike might be the real variable determining the direction of risk assets $BTC retail investors are holding tonight's $BTC chart where it pulled back above 64,000 overnight and asking me: Is it going to reverse? Should I switch to long? I didn't move a muscle. Let me point out the real boss for you — tonight the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, a 19-year high. The hand pressing down on all overvalued assets is interest rates, not the minor fluctuations in the crypto price chart. The longer interest rates stay high, the harder it is for risk asset valuations to rise, and crypto is just the last link in this chain with the least pricing power. A short squeeze doesn't change this big picture. After trading for a while, you'll understand that the direction depends on the water level, not the waves. Don't be fooled by a short squeeze spike into catching the falling knife — chasing longs at this level has the worst odds. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ 小米盘后正式揭晓二季度财报，先看机构一致预期： 预估总营收1088亿元，同比小幅下滑6%；调整后净利润约60亿元。手机、造车、AIoT三大板块，各有强弱，潜力天差地别。 一、手机主业：销量缩水，但高端化战略大获成功 一季度出货3380万台，同比大跌19%，销量明显承压。 但亮点极具含金量：手机均价ASP大涨8.2%，来到1310元历史新高。 主动砍掉低端机型、全力深耕高端，实现「量跌价涨」，盈利能力稳步修复。 三季度如果存储芯片涨价潮回落，手机毛利率还将迎来进一步提升。 二、小米汽车：最大增长黑马，离盈亏平衡越来越近 二季度SU7交付10.42万辆，毛利率冲到20.1%； 经营亏损从一季度31亿元，大幅收窄至20.6亿元。 规模效应持续兑现，成本不断摊薄，扭亏拐点肉眼可见。后续新车持续放量，汽车将长期成为小米营收增长核心引擎。 三、AIoT智能家居：率先回暖，迎来强势复苏 618大促强力拉动，二季度IoT营收环比暴涨28%，达到316亿元。 大家电、智能家居板块需求回暖明显，稳住小米生态基本盘。 后市前瞻：三季度看点远超二季度 Who understands! It clearly looks like it's about to break out, but ends up just grinding in place.
The back-and-forth tug-of-war between bulls and bears has completely drained my mindset.
$ETH is really frustrating; after several attempts, it can't break through and just drops. The 1900-1920 range is heavily suppressed. Every rebound sees capital outflow. If you can't push through, just come down, okay? I'm waiting with my short position.
$BTC still opens high and closes low. The chart looks strong but there's no incremental capital support. It can't break the resistance level, nor can it break the support level. So it just stays put obediently.
Currently, neither of the two major coins has a clear direction. It's very frustrating. I'll hold this position and see if Ethereum can break downwards.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 Hold on until Thursday
I just hope it doesn't rise too sharply in these two days 📉
I did some research on the Federal Reserve myself
It feels like this meeting's minutes will most likely still lean hawkish
Although there was no rate hike last time
The vote changed from 12-0 to 9-3
Three people directly supported a rate hike
This division is already quite clear
Plus, inflation hasn't completely come down yet
As long as the minutes continue to emphasize inflation risks
The dollar and US Treasury yields might rise again
Definitely not comfortable for crypto
But the hawkish expectations might have been partially priced in already
Thursday might not necessarily see a dump right after the release
$ETH is still hovering around 1900
1950 remains the resistance I'm watching
If the minutes are hawkish
And 1880 doesn't hold, there's a chance to continue downward
So I just want to hold on until the news lands
I dare not add positions recklessly anymore
$BEAT dropped hard again today
The selling pressure after unlocking clearly hasn't been fully absorbed
Let's see if it can hold around 0.25 first
Only with volume can there be a potential oversold rebound
Without volume, I really don't dare to hope for a second wave
$SNDK is ridiculously strong instead
After last week's big surge, it pushed up near 1780 again
The two-month consolidation range has been broken upwards
Might test 2000 later
But it rose so fast
I'm afraid to chase now and end up at the peak
Hope the Federal Reserve doesn't suddenly turn dovish
Also hope ETH doesn't lift me out before Thursday
Let me quietly wait for the result
#财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 ComponentNews classifies server $MLCC as in a "severe" shortage phase, ETNews reports:
- According to DigiKey's shipment data, the delivery time for some high-capacity MLCCs from Samsung has reached about 40 weeks.
Earlier this year, the widely reported delivery time was about 20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck continues to widen.
- Murata was about 24 weeks in June.
About 30 weeks in July. Now some have reached about 36 weeks.
This is interesting:
"New capacity expansion postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027"
It does not specify where the expansion is... maybe Murata? But if the capacity expansion is reportedly shelved, the bottleneck should tighten in the short term.
Delivery time is a good way to track demand imbalance. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 5.29%, hitting a multi-year high. Many media outlets and KOL experts have issued warnings, but many people actually don’t understand the relationship between Treasury bonds and the market. I’ll explain it simply in the most straightforward, no-nonsense plain language.
1. What is yield?
It’s the interest investors demand when lending money to the U.S. government. When yields rise, it usually means Treasuries are being sold and prices are falling.
2. What’s the difference between the long end and the short end?
The short end mainly reflects whether the Fed is raising or cutting rates in the near term; the long end reflects inflation, fiscal deficits, and debt risks over many years. So, short-end yields can fall while long-end yields don’t necessarily follow.
3. What does a rise in the long end indicate?
Investors are more cautious about the U.S. long-term outlook and demand higher returns. The market’s concern may no longer be the next Fed meeting but inflation, deficits, and interest burden over the coming years.
4. What impact does this have on the market?
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are the benchmark for global asset pricing. When they rise, financing costs increase, stock valuations are pressured downward, the dollar becomes more attractive, and emerging markets, stocks, and cryptocurrencies face headwinds.
5. Where is the risk?
Debt increases → more bond issuance → yields rise → interest expenses increase → market worries more about debt → continued selling of Treasuries.
If this cycle continues, it could lead to further rises in long-term rates and put pressure on stocks, cryptocurrencies, and global markets.
Although this doesn’t mean the U.S. economy or the dollar will immediately have problems, market trading is fundamentally about expectations. The next major market rally may not be $BTC rising alone, nor $ETH rising alone, but rather capital shifting from "safe-haven allocation" to "on-chain finance".
The strongest phase in the crypto market is often not just BTC finishing its rise, nor ETH suddenly exploding alone, but a continuous transmission formed by the capital flow path. Step one: with macro environment improvement, capital first buys $BTC because it is the easiest for institutions to understand and best suited as an entry point to the crypto market. Step two: after BTC stabilizes, capital begins to seek higher elasticity and richer narratives, thus flowing to $ETH. Step three: if ETH strengthens, on-chain finance, DeFi, L2, RWA, and stablecoin ecosystems will be reactivated.
Currently, the market is still between steps one and two. BTC is waiting for macro confirmation around $64,000, and ETH is waiting for capital rotation around $1,900. The Federal Reserve, Jackson Hole, the Trump White House crypto meeting, stablecoin regulation, SEC rule progress, and ETF flows are all deciding whether this path can be realized.
If the Federal Reserve releases easing space, BTC is very likely to benefit first. Because BTC resembles a macro asset the most, liquidity improvement, a weaker dollar, and lower real interest rates will all make its digital gold narrative smoother. ETF funds will also more easily return to BTC because BTC is the clearest institutional entry. At this stage, the market is buying certainty and liquidity.
But if only BTC rises and ETH does not follow, the crypto rally is incomplete. A true on-chain bull market requires ETH participation. Because ETH represents the application layer, stablecoin settlement, DeFi yields, RWA, and smart contract ecosystem. BTC can bring money into crypto, but ETH determines whether this money enters on-chain financial activities. If ETH fails to stand up for a long time, it means capital is still stuck in safe-haven allocation rather than risk appetite expansion.
This is also why BTC and ETH should not be judged solely by who rises more. BTC strength indicates crypto is treated as asset allocation; ETH strength indicates crypto is treated as a financial system. If both are strong together, it means the market is not only willing to buy digital gold but also willing to believe in the on-chain economy. The former provides the foundation for the crypto market, the latter provides vitality.
The key now is whether ETF funds and macro data can cooperate. BTC needs continuous inflows to confirm institutional buying, ETH needs on-chain activity and yield logic to confirm revaluation. If BTC stabilizes around $64,000 and ETH can regain $1,900 and break upward, then the market will start discussing capital rotation. Otherwise, the rally is still just a BTC-led defensive rebound.
The next major rally may not start from altcoins, nor necessarily be ignited by Meme. It is more likely to start with traditional capital buying BTC first, then confirmed by ETH reactivating on-chain finance. BTC is responsible for opening the door, ETH is responsible for proving there is real economic activity behind the door.
Reference sources (do not copy into the main text): Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Investopedia, CoinDesk, Investing.com ETH market page, Blockport ETH ETF monthly fund flows.——当全球最大的资管公司都在同一条链上结算，它就不再是币圈的工具，而是金融世界的底层管道 1968年，美国证券市场濒临崩溃。每天数百万张纸质股票凭证需要人工搬运、核对、盖章，纽约证券交易所不得不缩短交易时间来追赶积压的文书。那一年，华尔街创建了DTCC——存管信托与清算公司，把所有证券的登记、交割、清算集中到一套系统里。 没人觉得这件事性感。但此后半个世纪，DTCC处理了全球99%的美国证券交易，日均结算量超过2.3万亿美元。它是整个金融世界最不起眼、也最不可替代的基础设施。 2026年8月，一个类似的故事正在以太坊上重演——只是这一次，清算的不是纸质凭证，而是数字化的真实世界资产。 447亿美元的选择 据链得得8月17日报道，代币化真实世界资产（RWA）市场在三年内已从小众实验扩张至447亿美元。这个数字本身并不惊人。惊人的是它脚下的地基：以太坊仍是最大的RWA结算层，BNB Chain、Solana、XRP Ledger等公链虽各有布局，但以太坊以超过半数的市场份额牢牢占据机构首选位置。 三年前的RWA还只是"把国债搬到链上"的概念验证。今天，它已经覆盖了美国国债、货币基金、私人信💾 Why can SanDisk keep its balance sheet so clean$SNDK $GPS $SPCX One of SanDisk's most easily underestimated competitive advantages right now may be its manufacturing system that has been operating with Kioxia for over twenty years. This system gives SanDisk the technology, capacity, and cost control capabilities of original NAND foundries, while dispersing a large portion of the heaviest wafer fab facilities, cleanrooms, equipment financing, and depreciation assets into Kioxia and Flash Ventures. The result is a very unique financial picture. SanDisk is one of the world's largest NAND vendors, with revenue reaching $20.248 billion in fiscal year 2026. As of July 3, 2026, its consolidated net value of plant equipment on its balance sheet is only $674 million. During the same period, cash was $4.762 billion, long-term debt had dropped to zero, and Flash Ventures' related notes receivable and equity investments amounted to only $678 million. The company's total assets are about $22.5 billion, and the actual PP&E actually on SanDisk's own accounts is less than $700 million. This number would seem exaggerated in the storage industry. Micron is a typical IDM, owning a large portion of its own facilities, cleanrooms, lithography, etching, and deposition equipment. Micron's capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 will reach $13.8 billion, and the latest forecast for fiscal year 2026 is that PP&E capital expenditure will exceed $2.5$BTC has regained the $64,200 mark, while $ETH is around $1,901, and $SOL is still hovering around $75. Currently, it seems that funds continue to favor highly liquid core assets, rather than the entire crypto market moving into risk-on simultaneously. What truly deserves attention is the macro side: the yield on the US 30-year Treasury note rose to about 5.33%, the highest level since 2007; The 10-year yield is also close to 4.74%. Even though market expectations for another rate hike in September have dropped to about 37%, long-term yields continue to put pressure on risk assets. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed back above $90 per barrel, with Middle East tensions and inflation concerns further pushing up term premiums. In other words, the core question facing the market is no longer just "will the Fed raise interest rates," but how high long-term financing costs can go. Therefore, whether $BTC can hold the $64K is only the first step. To confirm a genuine return of market risk appetite, we need to see $ETH, $SOL, and broader altcoins break through with simultaneous volume increases. #XiaomiEarningsWatch #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals #BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto