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BTC surged about 23% last week, briefly touching $79,500 before retreating to around $77,000. A hot topic of debate in the market now is: is this the return of a bull market, or is it just the largest short squeeze in history? Let's first look at the signals supporting the return of the bull market. On the macro level, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, weakening the dollar index and reigniting the narrative of "currency depreciation trading." Some institutions point out that this rebound is essentially a rate transaction, not a crypto transaction. The combination of easing expectations and concerns about debt sustainability has historically been positive for BTC. Additionally, there have been breakthroughs at the regulatory level: Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House, and the SEC proposed new crypto asset regulations. Some institutions define this as a systemic turning window under the triple resonance of "interest rate turning point, regulatory dividends, and capital structure improvement." There have also been positive changes in the funding sector. In the first 20 days of August, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $2 billion, making it the strongest month of the year. This week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs combined saw a net inflow of $2.6 billion, the highest since October last year. On-chain data shows that in the past 60 days, large holders increased their holdings by about 43,000 BTC. Institutions increased their holdings by 7.5% when BTC fell 14% in the second quarter of this year. Now, let's look at the hidden dangers of opposing the return of the bull market. First, short squeeze was the direct driver of this surge. On August 20, about $1.44 billion in short positions were forcibly liquidated, triggering a chain liquidation as the price rose and passive buying amplified the rallyWhat’s truly worth watching in this ETH rally isn’t the rise to 2450, but that capital is starting to reprice it.
ETH is currently oscillating around $2450. After a quick rebound from 2355 on the 15-minute chart, it reached a high of 2485. Although it pulled back afterward, it hasn’t fallen back into the previous launch zone.
This indicates that the short-term move is no longer just a simple oversold rebound but an attempt to form a new price range.
From the chart, several signals are clear:
Price has climbed back above MA5, MA10, and MA20, with short-term moving averages beginning to converge upward; the BOLL middle band is near 2444, and ETH has returned above this middle band while testing resistance near 2458 on the upper band. The KDJ indicator is above 70, showing strong short-term momentum, but this also means the cost-effectiveness of chasing further gains here is declining.
The real key zone is between $2458 and $2485.
2485 is the local high of this rebound. If ETH can break through this level with volume and hold above around 2450 on a pullback, the short-term structure could upgrade from a "rebound" to a "trend continuation."
However, if it fails to break through 2458–2485 consecutively and volume starts to decline, we need to watch for a retest of 2425 or even near 2400.
But this time, I’m more focused not on the 15-minute technicals but on the changing capital structure behind ETH.
As of the week ending August 21, the US spot Ethereum ETF saw net inflows close to $700 million, marking one of the strongest single-week performances in nearly 10 months. Meanwhile, after the US Treasury expanded bond repurchase operations, market expectations for improved liquidity have risen, benefiting both BTC and ETH significantly. (CoinMarketCap)
This means the recent ETH rally differs from many previous altcoin-style rebounds:
At least part of it involves real institutional capital.
Moreover, ETH now shows another notable change.
For some time, BTC has been the strongest capital safe haven in the crypto market, with funds prioritizing BTC and ETH mostly following. But if ETH ETFs continue to see strong inflows, the market might be re-trading a new logic:
After BTC completes its first phase of valuation repair, will capital start to diffuse into ETH?
This is the variable I believe is most worth watching next.
In the short term, I’ll focus on three key levels:
$2485: The breakout confirmation level. Only by firmly holding here can we discuss $2500 or even higher.
$2425–2440: The most important short-term support zone currently. As long as this area holds, the overall trend remains strong.
$2385–2400: The critical defense line of this rebound structure. Falling back here would mean the quality of the previous breakout has clearly deteriorated.
So, I won’t immediately call a bull market restart just because ETH hits 2450, but compared to a few days ago, I am definitely raising my attention on ETH.
Because the market is now answering a question more important than "how much higher can ETH go?":
Is institutional capital just bottom-fishing short-term, or is it actually increasing ETH allocation?
If ETF inflows continue and 2485 is effectively broken, then this ETH rally might mean more than just a rebound—it could signal that market capital structure is truly starting to expand from a "BTC single core" outward.
What do you think? Is this ETH rally a catch-up move, or has capital begun to reprice ETH’s opportunity relative to BTC? $ETH BTC did not crash after the surge, which is even more noteworthy than the continued rise itself.
BTC is currently back near $77,460. From the 15-minute structure, it quickly rallied from around $75,500, reaching a high of $78,054 at one point, then experienced a clear profit-taking, but one key point is that the price did not fall back to the starting zone; instead, it completed a round of support near $77,000.
Now, the short-term cycle has risen above MA5, MA10, and MA20 again, and the price is once again approaching resistance near $77,550. The KDJ indicator has entered a high level, indicating that short-term momentum has indeed strengthened again, but this is not a position suitable for simply chasing the rally—because the $77,550–$78,050 area above is where the previous selling pressure was most concentrated.
What is truly worth observing is the capital logic.
This BTC rally is not just a technical rebound. After the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, long-term interest rates and dollar pressure eased, and risk assets regained liquidity expectations; meanwhile, spot BTC ETF funds have also clearly warmed up. From August 17 to 20, there were continuous large-scale net inflows, with about $606 million on the 20th alone, indicating that spot funds are indeed driving this rally. (Reuters)
However, the latest trading day’s ETF net inflow has dropped to about $20 million. (SatsIntel)
So I would not immediately define BTC’s return above $77,000 as a "new round of one-sided bull market."
The previous rise solved the short-selling problem; what needs to be solved next is who is willing to continue buying at higher levels.
In the short term, I will focus on three levels:
$77,550: The first resistance. Whether it can hold effectively will determine if this rebound can continue to challenge previous highs.
$78,050: The previous high and currently the most important breakout confirmation level. If there is a volume breakout followed by a non-break retest, the market will have the conditions to reopen upward space.
$76,850–$77,000: Short-term bullish defense zone. As long as there is continued support on pullbacks, it can still be understood as strong consolidation; but if it falls below here again and tests near $76,280, then this surge looks more like a high-level digestion driven by liquidity.
I think the most interesting thing about BTC now is not "how much it has risen," but that after a rapid weekly rebound of over 20%, the market still has not shown obvious structural profit-taking. (Investor’s Business Daily)
This indicates the bulls are not finished yet, but it also means the truly important thing ahead is not sentiment, but verification:
Whether ETF funds can continue to flow in, and whether the area near $78,000 can truly turn from resistance into support.
If both happen simultaneously, I will raise my judgment on the sustainability of this rally; if the price breaks out but funds start to lag, then beware of a high-level bull trap.
Do you think this BTC rally is re-entering a trend market, or just a large-scale rebound brought by improved liquidity? $BTC $BTC Jackson Hole is approaching, can Walsh clarify the policy path?
With just over half a month left until the September FOMC meeting, the Jackson Hole annual conference is Walsh's most important public home-stage speech since taking office. The market collectively expects him to provide a clear interest rate path, but based on his usual communication style, the probability of directly finalizing a policy path is not high.
Currently, internal divisions within the Federal Reserve remain prominent. The July meeting saw a 9 to 3 voting split, with three officials explicitly advocating for a rate hike. Data on inflation stickiness, economic resilience, and weakening consumption are contradictory, and there is no unified consensus internally. It is difficult for Walsh to forcibly present a definitive path in his annual speech. He has been promoting a communication model that weakens forward guidance, preferring not to give the market a fixed interest rate commitment. Instead, he tends to anchor on the inflation target, leaving the choice to subsequent economic data, guiding the market to price on its own rather than having the referee directly announce the outcome.
The core contradiction in the market now is that trading desks urgently need clear signals, long-term yields in the bond market continue to surge, and asset prices are highly dependent on policy expectations; however, Walsh prefers to discuss long-term topics such as productivity and financial innovation, deliberately avoiding direct statements on interest rates in September and November. Sina Finance.
There are three possible scenarios ahead: the first is a hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation risks and not ruling out further rate hikes, which would further push up U.S. Treasury yields and suppress risk assets; the second is maintaining ambiguity, only holding firm on the 2% inflation target #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 ETF inflows exceed 1.5 billion in four days, the capital dynamics of $BTC and $ETH are undergoing a qualitative change
In the past four trading days, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of about $1.58 billion, with a single-day peak of $610 million, marking a recent high. In the previous week, BTC and ETH ETFs combined inflows totaled about $1.13 billion—institutional funds are shifting from "tentative allocation" to "continuous accumulation," playing a key role in this rebound.
The logic behind the rally is clear: sustained ETF buying → passive short covering → improved regulatory expectations; the synergy of these three factors pushed BTC to $79,800 and ETH to the $2,500 level, with both gaining over 20% in a week.
However, a structural issue needs attention: a significant portion of this rally comes from "passive buying" due to short covering rather than purely new capital driving it. Once ETF inflows slow down, this support will quickly vanish, risking a rapid price pullback.
In the short term, both BTC and ETH have surpassed key resistance levels, and continued net ETF inflows are the strongest current confidence support. But the transition from a "squeeze-driven market" to "incremental-driven" is not yet complete; the sustainability of ETF inflows will be the core variable in judging trend strength. Stay patient with optimism. $BTC Still "trading volume rising over 20%": in 2025, it was 20% on the massive liquidity base; now it's a 20% rebound during a dry period, with a scale completely incomparable; The price is not a typical bull market restart but more like a "macro catalyst + short squeeze + ETF return" technical rebound. It's not inflated but not a confirmation of a new bull market. 1. Why "20% increase in trading volume" is not a first-tier 2025 (bull market peak side): In July 2025, when sentiment was at its peak, Binance's BTC spot + contract trading volume was about $2.55 trillion, while OKX's was about $1.055 trillion; BTC spot daily trading volume peaked at nearly $25B/day, with the city's spot daily trading often standing at the hundred-billion-yuan level. Around August 10, 2026 (present), BTC's perpetual 30-day average volume dropped to $10.8B (Binance + Bybit, lowest 5th percentile since 2021), spot daily volume once shrank to $1.8B, and by the end of July even dropped to $4.5B/day, the lowest since 2024; In the past week, the price has jumped 20%+, with 24-hour volume returning to the $33–48B range, but this is a rise from an extremely dry level, not a bull-market volume. Conclusion: A 20% rise in 2025 is "adding more waves to the flood peak," now is "pumping the water upward from the shallow shore"—the same percentage, absolute buying power differs by an order of magnitude. 2. What is the nature of this current 77k–78k wave? The driver chain is clear, not pure demand bull: 1. MacroThe most alarming signal in the market recently is a very unusual combination:
Consumption is weakening, while gold, Bitcoin, copper, and shipping are strengthening.
If it were just economic recovery, this picture wouldn't quite fit.
U.S. retail is cooling down, and brick-and-mortar giants like Walmart are also signaling to the market that consumers aren't as strong as imagined. Consumption in China is also relatively weak.
Yet on the other side, assets like gold, BTC, and copper keep rising.
What exactly is the market trading?
I increasingly feel that the core of market trading has gradually shifted from "growth" to two words:
Credit.
Recently, actions from the U.S. fiscal side have become more frequent.
Intervening in exchange rates, promising not to further expand national debt issuance, expanding long-term bond repurchases...
The more actions taken, the more it seems like a message to the market:
There is a problem here.
More importantly, after the Treasury's intervention attempts, long-term U.S. Treasury yields quickly rose again.
The market cast a vote of opposition through prices.
This creates a troublesome vicious cycle.
Long-term rates remain high, U.S. fiscal interest payment pressure grows, and debt problems worsen;
Trying to push down long-term rates may require stronger liquidity tools in the future, even reconsidering YCC or QE.
Whichever path is taken, it ultimately cannot avoid the same issue:
The purchasing power of the dollar.
If rates are pushed down, the dollar loses its interest rate advantage;
If rates can't be pushed down, debt sustainability continues to be questioned;
Continuing to flood liquidity to save the debt market further dilutes monetary credit.
So the recent rise in gold and BTC may actually be trading a clearer expectation:
Debt can be postponed, but credit must be paid.
The U.S. debt at the $40 trillion level cannot just disappear out of thin air.
Historically, dealing with massive sovereign debt involves a few methods:
Growth, fiscal tightening, default, inflation, currency devaluation.
The first two are becoming increasingly difficult, direct default is almost unthinkable, so the market naturally begins to bet in advance:
Repaying past more valuable money with cheaper money.
This is also why many of today's strongest assets share the same attribute:
Gold has scarcity,
Bitcoin has a fixed supply expectation,
copper and resources are constrained by real production capacity,
even shipping may be trading not just demand but also efficiency decline and cost increases after the global trade system's re-splitting.
This might be the truly interesting aspect of this market cycle.
The biggest story in the market over the past few years was:
AI improving productivity.
Next, the market may start trading another story:
When credit money supply can expand infinitely, how much should truly scarce things be worth?
If this logic continues to strengthen, then the next major asset rotation's main theme may no longer be "who grows fastest."
The market will start asking a more fundamental question:
Who is the hardest to be printed?#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
This week, the AI earnings report I am most focused on is Nvidia, followed by Marvell. The reason is not that they will necessarily have the best gains, but because these two companies happen to represent two very critical issues in the AI industry chain: whether the demand for computing power is still strong, and whether the AI infrastructure funds continue to spread to areas like networking and interconnection.
In the past two years, the market has accepted that tech giants spend hundreds of billions of dollars annually on AI. Now the standard has changed—just saying "continue to increase investment" is no longer enough; the market is starting to ask: how much revenue and profit do these investments ultimately generate?
For Nvidia, the most important factors remain data center growth, next-generation GPU shipments, and customer demand; for Marvell, I will focus on AI-related networking and custom chip orders, because the larger the AI clusters, the higher the value of high-speed interconnection beyond computing power.
So even if AI company earnings reports diverge this week, I will not change my long-term judgment on the AI sector because of it.
On the contrary, I think this is a good thing. $NVDA
In the first half of the AI market, almost anything related to AI could rise; in the second half, it should start to eliminate companies that "only tell stories" and concentrate funds on enterprises that truly have orders, cash flow, and technological barriers.
AI has not entered its final stage; it has just moved from "believing in the future" to "show me the bills." The next real big winners may not be those who tell the best AI stories, but those who first prove that AI can really make money.In the current rapid surge market, you must clarify the logic before entering. $BTC quickly surged from around 64,000 to the 77,000-79,000 range, reaching a high of 79,500 on August 21. ETH's weekly gain was nearly 30%, stabilizing above 2,400, but a high-level pullback occurred on August 23. The 24-hour total liquidation across the network reached $880 million, with long liquidations accounting for over 80%.
The core driving force behind this rally comes from expectations of the Treasury's balance sheet expansion, sentiment catalyzed by related White House summits, combined with the concentrated liquidation of $3 billion short positions; the spot ETF's cumulative net inflow of $1.1 billion over two days is more passive absorption rather than the ignition source of this rally.
There are opportunities to participate, but you must not blindly chase the large bullish candles. A true trend reversal confirmation requires three conditions simultaneously: first, BTC retraces to the 74,000-76,000 range and ETH falls back to 2,300-2,350, with volume shrinking and then stabilizing; second, when the rally restarts, spot trading volume reaches more than 1.5 times the five-day average; third, ETF funds maintain stable net inflows for three consecutive days.
Currently, the daily RSI value has reached 82, entering a severe overbought zone. On-chain whales have cumulatively sold 7,700 BTC within three days. Chasing highs at this stage essentially means taking on previously trapped positions. Either wait for the price to break and hold above 80,000 with volume to trade on the right side, or rushing in will only cost you emotionally driven losses. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 The Fear and Greed Index dropped from 84 to 66. Three days ago it was in extreme greed, today it’s still greedy but clearly cooling down. This cooldown reassures me more than the surge itself.
Brothers, honestly, last week’s short squeeze scared me. $BTC surged from 64,000 to 79,500 in four days, RSI hit 86, and the Fear and Greed Index soared to 84—this kind of extreme sentiment is not a bull market trait, it’s a FOMO trait. A real bull market rises slowly, not a 23% surge in a few days followed by sideways movement. A surge inevitably leads to a drop; this is the iron law of a leveraged market.
Now that it’s cooling down, that’s actually good. RSI has fallen from 86, Fear and Greed dropped from 84 to 66, and the price is consolidating sideways around 77,000. The 200-day SMA is at 77,154, and BTC is sitting right on this line digesting profit-taking. If it can hold sideways here for three to five days and grind RSI back to around 60, that would be a healthy trend. The worst case is it can’t hold—once it breaks below 77,154, a large number of long positions above the 200-day moving average will panic, and a chain liquidation could quickly drag the price down to 73,000.
ETFs are still seeing inflows; last week’s 2.6 billion was the strongest single week since October last year. But year-to-date in 2026, BTC ETFs have still net outflowed 2.9 billion. This week’s 2.6 billion looks strong but doesn’t even cover a fraction of previous losses. Institutions are coming back, no doubt, but saying "full return" is just self-encouragement.
Keep your bullets; at this position, don’t chase or cut, wait for the direction to reveal itself.
#BTC #FearAndGreed #Sideways #200DayMA #MarketSentiment The U.S. has announced the strictest sanctions against Iran in history, yet Brent crude oil responded by dropping nearly 2%, and WTI pulled back to around $85.
Last week, the market had just priced in the breakdown of negotiations and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, pushing oil prices up over 5% in a single week. However, before the new blow even landed, bullish funds took profits.
Short-term pricing on the market is never driven by news headlines but by the pace at which risk premiums are realized. The market had already priced in the negative expectations the week before, so when exaggerated slogans are shouted, the trading logic of fully priced-in good news is instantly triggered.
More importantly, funds are watching for execution: whether Washington’s executive orders can truly cut off Iran’s crude oil shadow routes to Asia. The complex gray market chains and non-dollar settlements have long caused diminishing returns on financial blockades. As long as independent refineries in Asia make a profit, discounted crude can find a way through.
This bearish candle does not mean the risk is gone. Spot shipping tracking and refined product crack spreads show that actual navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed, and Middle Eastern crude supply remains tight.
Going forward, it depends on the strength of enforcement: if the middlemen in settlements are truly eliminated to block exports, Brent will quickly fill the gap; if it’s just another political show, the risk premium hanging between $90 and $95 will continue to be stripped away.
Today’s decline is not a reversal; it’s big money forcibly stopping the market to wait for a definitive answer.
$XAU #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Exclusive Analysis｜Those who are still heavily invested in BTC now are big S Bs, I can only say: you simply don't understand the E/B exchange rate
Why don't I hold BTC now?
Because in the next 2–3 years, ETH is very likely to continue outperforming BTC.
The annual E/B exchange rate is already very clear:
After years of continuous decline, the drop this year has significantly narrowed, approaching a doji pattern, and is even brewing a reversal.
What does this mean?
Even if ETH can't significantly outperform BTC temporarily, the space for it to continue underperforming significantly in the future is very limited.
So since the two assets are highly correlated, why not directly choose ETH with higher odds?
Looking at BTC itself.
At the beginning of August, it was still around 62,000, then quickly surged to 80,000 in a short time.
This kind of rise doesn't seem solid to me.
It's like losing weight by taking laxatives, losing five pounds in two days—
what's lost is water, not fat.
It looks like you've slimmed down now, but it will eventually come back.
So I have always believed:
58,000 is definitely not the real bottom for BTC in this cycle.
I don't even expect BTC to enter a true bull market throughout 2027.
The reason is simple:
Next year will still be a bear market environment for risk assets.
The annual trend of the US stock market is becoming clearer.
I judged in Q2:
Q3 US stocks can still hold, with high-level fluctuations from July to September;
Starting Q4, it will decline, entering a larger-scale drop in 2027.
If the US stock market truly enters a systemic adjustment, BTC and ETH cannot be completely independent.
So in the next year, if BTC revisits 40,000–50,000 USD, I wouldn't be surprised at all; in extreme cases, it could even go below 40,000.
The time truly worth looking forward to for BTC to re-enter a major upward cycle, I still see as:
Mid-2028.
So BTC at over 70,000 USD now looks very fragile to me.
It looks solid,
but it's actually just a layer of paper.
When it really goes down, piercing through it will be very easy.I increasingly feel that this round might be the best opportunity for ordinary people in the cryptocurrency market, mainly because of Trump.
The U.S. president can serve a maximum of two terms, and Trump is currently in his final term; he cannot run for a third term. In the coming years, for him, how to leave a significant impact during his term, push policies through, and maximize his business interests will all become variables the market must pay attention to.
Cryptocurrency happens to be one of the directions Trump values most.
In July 2025, Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, officially establishing a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins in the U.S. At the same time, the Trump administration is still promoting broader cryptocurrency market regulatory legislation. (The White House)
What does this mean?
It means that cryptocurrency is gradually moving from the past stage of "regulatory uncertainty and potential crackdowns at any time" into a phase of policy support and institutionalized development.
Especially for the entire altcoin market, this change in policy environment could become an important catalyst for attracting hot money.
One of the biggest concerns when buying altcoins in the past was: can the project survive until the next cycle?
But as the regulatory framework becomes clearer, and stablecoins, trading platforms, asset issuance, and the entire on-chain financial system begin to normalize, the market's risk appetite has a chance to rise again.
And once BTC leads the trend, and market sentiment is fully ignited, truly crazy money usually won't be satisfied with just buying Bitcoin.
They will start looking for higher odds.
From this perspective, I think this round might be more worth looking forward to than simply following historical cycle projections.
Of course, according to historical patterns, the amplitude of Bitcoin's rise and fall in each cycle has indeed been shrinking.
Last cycle rose tenfold; this cycle might only be a few times;
Last cycle had huge gains; the marginal returns in the next cycle will continue to decline.
So if calculated purely based on cycle decay, my original upper limit estimate for this round of BTC was about $180,000.
This level is already a relatively reasonable expectation.
But because of the Trump variable, I am willing to be more optimistic.
My optimistic target range is:
$200,000—$300,000.
Note, this does not mean BTC will definitely reach $300,000.
Rather, the market environment this round has already started to differ from the past.
Policy attitudes are changing, institutional funds are entering, the stablecoin regulatory framework has been implemented, and the Trump administration continues to push for broader crypto regulatory reforms. (Reuters)
If global liquidity loosens again in the coming years, combined with continued favorable U.S. policies and ongoing institutional inflows, then this round of BTC could completely exceed the expectations of traditional cycle models.
So now I prefer to see this round as an opportunity that should not be easily missed.
$180,000 is my rational target based on historical cycle decay.
Above $200,000 is the optimistic expectation driven by policy, liquidity, and capital.
$300,000 belongs to a super bull market where all conditions develop extremely optimistically.
Where this round will ultimately go, no one knows now.
But I know one thing:
Real big opportunities often do not appear when everyone confirms a bull market, but quietly complete their layout when most people are still hesitant and unbelieving.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Shenchao Guide: Bitcoin surged about 22% this week, marking the largest single-week gain in years. On Sunday night (Bitstamp), it closed at around $76,500, briefly touching $79,461 during the session; Coinglass data shows that about $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated in a single day, with Bloomberg calling it the largest short liquidation on record. Faced with the question, "Did I miss out?", the author backtested 46 similar surges since 2013: 30 of which occurred when the price was above 30% of the all-time high, 15 times no chance to get on board, and 15 times gave back all gains within half a year—relying solely on the surge itself is not enough to judge whether it is a bottom or a trap. However, he pointed out that the real signal is not in the "green week," but in whether the CSH score can hold above 30 in the following weeks and continue to rise (currently 31.9); Historically, the four instances of "extremely low scores followed by a violent rally above 30" all correspond to bear market ends, but the July 2022 rating was stuck at 28 before breaking 30, and the true bottom only appeared four months later. The author's conclusion is: rather than predicting direction, it's better to follow a set plan of "buy below 30, hold on above 30." Bitcoin surged about 22% this week, marking its largest single-week gain in years. Coinglass data shows that during the rally, about $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated in a single day; Bloomberg called this the largest short closing on record. The price once reached 7Follow the structure, go with the trend.
Recently, many people have been struggling with a core question: Is Bassett's move to expand the US Treasury long-term repo facility a temporary patch to cover shortfalls, or a major move to reshape liquidity? Is the current market a short-term rebound or the start of a new round of interest rate declines? Today, I'll thoroughly break down the underlying logic for you.
The summer liquidity window is the key period for US Treasury policy battles. The fiscal side will definitely intervene in long-term yields, and the market will only preemptively speculate on expectations rather than wait for policies to be implemented before reacting. The bond market has repeatedly surged mid-way, but with Bassett's official announcement to expand the repo tool scale, the entire big structural trend has become completely clear.
First, let me clarify the core key signals that many have overlooked:
In the past, the Treasury's repo tool was mainly a liquidity buffer and did not touch yield pricing. Previous Treasuries treated it as an emergency backstop tool to maintain normal market trading, fully respecting the market-formed yield curve. But this time, Bassett publicly and deliberately guided long-term yields downward, marking a historic reversal in positioning.
Earlier, during Treasury auctions, the Treasury was already overwhelmed, with long-term bond winning yields hitting decades-highs and fiscal interest expenses soaring sharply. But Bassett hesitated and delayed action, causing long-term yields to spiral out of control and accumulating massive passive selling pressure in the market.
Now the situation has fully escalated: from relying solely on market-driven pricing to the Treasury actively intervening in the yield curve. This directly locks in the subsequent major trend: the market-based pricing logic of US Treasury yields temporarily fails, fiscal policy begins to deeply bind with the bond market, and US Treasuries officially evolve from pure trading instruments into policy control tools.
Why will this intervention completely change market liquidity logic? The core lies in two underlying logics.
First, Bassett's operation is essentially a straightforward shifting of pressure from one side to another.
The entire process involves no new base money and no reduction in total federal debt. The Treasury must issue short-term T-bills to raise funds to repurchase long-term bonds—in other words, swapping short-term debt for long-term debt, moving pressure from the long end to the short end, with total debt unchanged, just a maturity structure reshuffle.
The huge long-term debt repayment pressure cannot be magically absorbed. The two clearest paths ahead are both tied to market risks:
One is that concentrated short-term debt maturities will cause refinancing pressure to rise exponentially in the future. If the Fed maintains high rates, fiscal interest expenses will snowball, further worsening the deficit;
Two is that a surge in short-term debt supply will directly drain liquidity from the entire market. Although it seems to inject liquidity into the long-end market, it actually extracts liquidity from the whole financial system. Essentially, it is a liquidity transfer, not an addition.
Second, and most crucial expectation gap online: this operation is not quantitative easing at all and runs completely counter to the Fed's policy direction.
This is not a casual judgment but a solid policy positioning.
Previously, the market assumed rising long-term yields were tightening financial conditions on behalf of the Fed, so the Fed didn't need to hike rates. Now, the Treasury actively suppressing yields is like undermining the Fed's tightening efforts, causing a complete split in policy goals.
Many people don't understand the market because they look only at the bond market or yields in isolation without a holistic view. I've repeatedly emphasized: interpreting Treasury intervention and yield trends without considering Fed policy is meaningless. All US Treasury market moves, liquidity trends, and dollar movements must be interpreted within the "fiscal vs. Fed policy battle" framework to see the true direction.
The logic for global risk markets is also very clear:
Currently, there is no real new liquidity or fundamental positive reversal; the market is in a transition period of expectation speculation and logic reconstruction.
Previously anchored by low yields stabilizing global asset pricing, once intervention logic tightens and its effect fades, global equities, FX, and commodities pricing systems will passively adjust.
Corresponding to the current market, two core themes:
First, the risk-off logic continues, with policy intervention plus dollar depreciation expectations making hard assets like gold and silver very resilient;
Second, growth sectors await validation. Tech stocks and risk assets are tied to liquidity expectations. As policy effects are disproven and negative factors fully priced in, the rebound potential will become considerable.
Here is my core judgment:
Bassett's short-term intervention benefits are nearing an end, but not completely ineffective—it's a change in rhythm, level, and expectations.
The short-term market will continue to speculate on policy implementation strength. Mid-term, all market moves revolve around the main theme of "fiscal intervention vs. Fed tightening + worsening debt structure."
No need to be overly optimistic or blindly amplify risks.
The old US Treasury bear logic is partially playing out, but the new pricing system is not fully formed yet. This period is a critical window for structural transition.
The market is restructuring, the trend is reshaping—follow the main theme, avoid betting on one-sided moves, and go with the flow.
Follow me to keep mastering the core global macro logic and steadily navigate through bull and bear markets.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 A new round of U.S. economic pressure on Iran is escalating. The Trump administration is expected to announce further measures on August 24, as the market fears that expanding sanctions could continue to impact Iranian crude oil exports. Iran's stance is equally tough, even signaling that if the economic war continues to escalate, it could restrict energy transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices quickly surged, at one point approaching $96 per barrel. If there is a persistent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening energy supplies could push U.S. inflation up again. Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline prices have risen about 27% compared to the same period last year, and energy costs have once again become a major source of inflationary pressure. The logic is actually quite simple: rising oil prices → inflation expectations heating up→ limited room for Fed rate cuts→ longer high interest rates, → pressure on risk assets. But what truly deserves attention is that the market does not seem to trade entirely according to this traditional logic. Over the past week, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs attracted about $2.8 billion in capital inflows, with BTC ETFs accounting for about $2 billion, maintaining net inflows for several consecutive trading days, with institutional buying still evident. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar is weak, and gold and Bitcoin are simultaneously attracting capital attention. This means funds are reseeking alternatives to "safe haven + growth." The U.S. government bears huge annual interest payments, while the fiscal deficit and debt continue to grow. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds once reached about 5.4%, and long-term bonds#MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, halving its scale #ETH fluctuates after hitting $2,500 Good afternoon everyone!
Stepping out of the perspective of liquidity and price fluctuations, let's reconsider BTC, ETH, and SOL from the angles of capital stratification, user groups, and value capture ability.
$BTC BTC is essentially the "alternative reserve asset" of the crypto world, with value capture coming from external capital acceptance; the chain itself generates almost no business revenue. The market is now split into two types of participants: institutional ETF funds seeking allocation attributes, only concerned with macro and regulation; retail speculative funds playing wave trading. Their demands are not unified, causing market characteristics: institutions buy during big rallies, retail investors flood in at highs; once expectations reverse, both types of capital exit simultaneously, amplifying volatility. It does not rely on on-chain business profits; its survival foundation is social consensus, and the lack of intrinsic cash flow is its biggest shortcoming.
$ETH ETH is positioned as a settlement layer, attempting to capture value from on-chain activity. The staking mechanism turns tokens into network revenue certificates, and Gas burning returns part of the business profits to holders. But the reality is: Layer 2 ecosystems are booming, with many transactions moving off the mainnet, diverting mainnet fee income. Value creation happens on Layer 2, but value return rarely flows back to ETH tokens, causing a decoupling between business growth and token returns. ETH-ETF brings incremental funds but does not resolve the structural contradiction of diluted value capture, which is the fundamental reason why the ETH/BTC ratio has long struggled to break through.
$SOL SOL follows a user scale-first approach, sacrificing some decentralization for extreme performance, attracting retail investors and rapidly expanding the Meme ecosystem with low transaction costs. Its value capture model heavily depends on on-chain transaction fees, but the absolute fee amount is very low, making it difficult to cover the selling pressure from token inflation release. The ecosystem is lively, but at the token level, it is hard to convert user enthusiasm into holder returns. Market speculation on SOL-ETF expectations essentially hopes institutional funds will take over the retail ecosystem, driven by external narratives rather than on-chain intrinsic revenue realization.
The structural contradictions of the three are clear: BTC relies on external consensus; ETH has a mismatch between business growth and token returns; SOL has a thriving ecosystem but weak token capture ability. Even if liquidity recovers, these structural issues will not disappear with short-term market trends. Once external capital withdraws, the inherent flaws of each asset will dominate pricing again.The key variable is no longer rhetoric alone, but whether sanctions and selective shipping access translate into sustained physical supply losses. Brent’s 6.4% and WTI’s 5.7% weekly gains show that markets are already assigning a higher risk premium.
My read: tight diesel could become the more consequential transmission channel. If shipping curbs persist, higher energy costs may reach consumers and complicate the path for Fed policy, with knock-on effects across Treasury yields, gold and BTC. Case-by-case passage for some Iraqi tankers is not the same as normalization.
Not advice, just analysis.
#IranOilRiskEscalates$OKB got some real good news today, but brothers, don’t catch it at the peak.
On 8/24, OKX CEO Star announced the launch of a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund. Circle’s USDC + CCTP also officially went live on X Layer, directly opening stablecoin liquidity channels. This is a rare independent catalyst among the 6 coins:
Once the news broke, OKB surged to $212, but the ATH created on 8/21 was $239.91. It then retraced to around $110 and hovered there, and today it bounced again on the good news. The cross-source price gap is huge (OKX converter shows about $110, news-driven surge to $212), indicating a massive long-short split. Messari is even more interesting: since the 2021 bull market peak, only 22 tokens have outperformed BTC, and OKB is the only one that has maintained a lead since the 2021 peak, with a solid base of 21 million hard cap (65.25 million burned) + ICE strategic investment (valued at $25 billion).
But the retracement after the $239 high isn’t over yet. Today’s move is a news-driven pulse, not a trend restart. The key for the $1 billion fund is whether it can convert into real on-chain activity, not just the money itself.
Compared to other coins, OKB is one of the few among the 6 coins that has its own story (deflation + ecosystem + compliance endorsement), but in the short term, it’s pushed too high by the good news. Chasing it now is just carrying the news hype.BTC strength does not mean altcoins are ready. Can the large-cap rally soon be interpreted as a bullish signal for all altcoins? Bitcoin touched $79,500 and Ethereum hit $2,500, but many altcoins such as H, LAB, KAITO, BEAT, and SNDK showed relatively weak performance. This is interpreted not as a lack of momentum but as a result of selective capital allocation, that is, market turnover. Liquidity remains concentrated in large-cap assets, while altcoins face triple constraints: new supply, thin liquidity, and insufficient spot demand. In particular, KAITO is a period where additional supply pressure comes into play after large-scale unlocking. The implications of this trend for market structure are clear. When BTC and ETH are leading the rally, the failure of altcoins to rise together reveals a qualitative difference in capital rather than a spread of risk appetite. Funds flowing into large-cap stocks have not yet been transferred to small and mid-cap stocks, which reflects the altcoin market's impact on the fundamentals and supply conditions of individual stocks.$AAVE up +12% in one day, DeFi's old favorite is making a comeback, but there's a hidden risk that must be warned to the bros ⚠️
AAVE current price 142, 24h +12.4%, peaked at 145.
1. Clear driver: SEC's Reg Crypto proposal has entered the 60-day public comment period, the first wave of regulatory clarity benefits the DeFi leaders—UNI +6.9%, AAVE leading the rally, the sector's surge is no coincidence.
2. Hidden risk: Latest risk assessment shows that less than 9% of positions on Aave account for about 50% of the protocol's debt. If ETH experiences large volatility, a chain liquidation stampede is no joke.
3. My judgment: DeFi recovery makes it a core beneficiary, holding 130 looks toward 145–150. But don't leverage too aggressively, this concentration risk can blow up faster than I turn hostile 😘A 500u nap, for everyone's reference, don't blindly start trading
I thought I had confidently chosen the direction to short with high leverage
But...
When Ethereum was repeatedly tugging around $2400, bearish voices began to rise in the market. However, on-chain data clearly shows that it is far from the time to short.
The supply side is continuously tightening. Ethereum balances on exchanges have dropped to multi-year lows, with over 1.15 million ETH flowing out of trading platforms over several months. Meanwhile, staked amounts have surpassed 42 million ETH, accounting for more than 35% of the total supply. This means there is less freely tradable Ethereum in the market, and the selling pressure bullets are running out.
The capital side also sends positive signals. Institutional-level addresses are steadily accumulating; this is not the end of retail FOMO but rather allocation funds building positions steadily. On the macro front, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are becoming clearer, and improved liquidity provides medium-term support for cryptocurrencies.
Sentiment is far from extreme euphoria. Although the Fear & Greed Index is in the greed zone, it is still noticeably distant from the "extreme greed" seen at multiple historical tops. Funding rates are stable, and the futures market shows no signs of overheating. True market tops are born in mass celebrations, not in hesitation and disagreement.
Against the backdrop of supply contraction, capital inflow, and sane sentiment, shorting now is like catching a knife barehanded. Be patient and wait for confirmation signals on the right side; let the bullets fly a little longer. $ETH #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Last week’s question was simple: Was the $BTC rally only a short squeeze? Five consecutive positive US spot ETF sessions suggest there may be more behind the move. • BTC ETFs: ~$1.92B weekly inflows • ETH ETFs: ~$697M inflows • Combined volume: ~$29B • IBIT: ~$1.33B, around 69% of BTC ETF inflows • ETHA: ~$537M, roughly 77% of ETH ETF inflows The strength is encouraging, but there’s still a catch: breadth and persistence need confirmation. BTC ETF flows remain negative for 2026 overall, while EThis week, Bitcoin experienced an epic rebound, with a weekly increase of over 22%, reaching a high close to $79,500. The core positive factors are concentrated in three areas: Trump held a crypto industry summit, expressing an end to crypto regulatory crackdowns and pushing Congress to advance crypto compliance legislation; the U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing U.S. bond yields to fall and marginally easing liquidity conditions; the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $1.9 billion in one week, with institutional funds entering aggressively. Multiple positive factors combined triggered large-scale short liquidations, fully fueling a short squeeze in the short term. However, the market began to fluctuate at high levels over the weekend, with profit-taking gradually occurring. Whether it can hold the high ground going forward depends on the sustainability of funds and the progress of regulatory implementation. $BTC This whale's move is quite interesting, brothers, take a look.
Just saw on-chain data, an address placed a TWAP buy order at $BTC 77,124, spending over 15 million USD, planning to slowly accumulate over 200 BTC in 48 hours. The key point is he already holds a 40x long position on 73.5 BTC, with an average price of 77,503 and a liquidation price of 68,821, about 10 points away from the current price.
Honestly, this is not just opening a position, it looks more like defending the price or adding to the position. The TWAP has only run 5%, the bulk is still on the way. The biggest fear now is a pullback — that 40x long on 73.5 BTC is just 10 points from liquidation; and although 95% of the remaining orders haven't been filled, the margin has already been frozen by the exchange. If the price crashes, the unrealized loss will first eat into his available balance, and the frozen margin can't be withdrawn, meaning "having money but can't save it," only watching the position get liquidated. This isn't getting hit from both sides, it's a chain trap.
Recently, there have been many whales going all-in on BTC with 40x leverage, ranging from millions to tens of millions of dollars, using similar tactics — slowly placing TWAP orders, not wanting to crash the market. But this open play is like showing your bottom cards to the market — I know you have large buy orders around 77,100, and I know your downside buffer is only about 10 points.
Is this guy truly bullish with real money, or is he forced to add to his position to save himself? If BTC drops to around 69,000 in the next few days, this 40x position will basically be gone. BTC 涨得这么热闹，山寨却还在原地发呆，这画面你品出什么了吗？ 你有没有发现，每次行情启动时，总有一批人急着喊 Altseason，但链上数据根本不给面子？ 比特币刚站稳 77K，以太坊也摸到 2.4K 附近，现货 ETF 一周吸了大概 16 亿美金，机构买盘确实回来了。但另一边，BEAT、BICO、KAITO、LAB、SNDK 这些山寨币，连个像样的反弹都撑不住，量能稀薄得像是没人愿意接货。 表面看是普涨，底层其实是单腿走路。 我自己的感受是，这轮反弹的发动机不在散户情绪里，而在衍生品结构上。空头回补叠加 ETF 流入，把 BTC 推得又稳又快，但合约市场的持仓量并没有同步放大到疯狂的程度，说明杠杆资金还比较克制。这种状态其实挺健康的——不是那种一根大阳线拉爆所有人的行情，而是慢慢把空头磨死、把观望的人逼上车的节奏。 但问题也藏在这里。 如果 BTC 是靠衍生品结构撑起来的，那山寨想要补涨，就必须等到资金主动溢出。现在的情况是，稳定币总市值没有明显增长，交易所里的 USDT 也没有大规模流向山寨交易对，说明场外增量资金还在犹豫，场内资金也只愿意待在 BTC 和 ETH 里避险。 偏1) Price and Capital
2) This Round of Hot Topics
Alibaba's AI financing has triggered a market reassessment of tech stock valuations. U.S. tech stocks have already experienced a pullback; if Alibaba's financing pace is too rapid, it may lead to a revaluation of Hong Kong tech stocks. The institutionalization of South Korean crypto is accelerating, with Bithumb accounting for nearly half of the corporate accounts among the top five exchanges, reflecting a stabilizing local market structure, but it has yet to show direct support for Hong Kong tech stocks.
3) How I Understand It
The bulls' logic is that AI investment brings long-term technological iteration, and if Alibaba can achieve product implementation, valuations are expected to recover. The bears focus on the large financing scale and fast pace, which may dilute existing shareholders' equity, and the long AI implementation cycle means short-term profits are unlikely. If there is no clear AI product progress later, market sentiment may face further pressure.
4) What to Watch Next
Going forward, it is necessary to observe the specific progress disclosures of Alibaba's AI projects, such as product launches, revenue contributions, and technical roadmaps. Without substantial progress, the tech stock rebound will lack fundamental support. At the same time, overall liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market and changes in foreign holdings still need to be verified.
For informational and market scenario analysis purposes only; this does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks. If Bitcoin's macro bottom has indeed been established, then the market is still in the very early stages of the recovery 📉➡️📈 cycle. Historically, the last weekly buy signal of the previous bearish cycle has been confirmed, and the price has subsequently risen by as much as 500%. However, it is important to note that recent cycles have had a narrowing range of fluctuations on both the upside and the downside. This means that investors should expect lower returns than in previous cycles, rather than betting on a compensationNVIDIA Q2 Earnings Report
AI Industry "Overall Performance Report"
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
Earnings for fiscal year 2027 Q2 announced after market close on August 26
Current market expectations for revenue are about $92 billion, nearly double year-over-year
The company's own guidance midpoint is $91 billion
Exceeding expectations is no longer a surprise; it is now a basic requirement
· Last quarter, NVIDIA's revenue was $81.6 billion, with data center revenue at $75.2 billion. The market is concerned whether the growth rate can continue to absorb increasingly high expectations.
· Approximately 75% gross margin. Blackwell Ultra ramp-up and Vera Rubin entering delivery cycle will bring stronger performance but also imply more complex system costs. HBM supply, product transitions, and rack delivery pace may all impact margins.
· Whether customers are still willing to spend. Cloud providers expanding capital expenditures means orders for NVIDIA; however, the market still needs to see this computing power ultimately convert into AI revenue, rather than just cycling within the industry chain.
This earnings report is not only about whether NVIDIA can make money, but also about whether the AI investment cycle can accelerate further Pop Mart's financial report stunned me. Revenue was 17.173 billion, up 23.8%, net profit was 5.038 billion, up 10.1%. The numbers aren't bad, but the market expected more and it fell short, causing the stock price to drop over 8%, halving from its peak. It's really a tough situation.
Wang Ning was quite candid, admitting that last year's surge had some luck involved, and the LABUBU proportion is also declining. Then they announced a 2 to 5 billion buyback plan. Goldman Sachs is still pouring cold water, saying demand is weak and inventory is high. But offline, the scene is completely opposite: Star People sell out instantly, second-hand prices are 13 times higher, and even Duan Yongping said the business is doing extremely well when visiting stores. Who to believe? I'm confused too.
The buyback is real money, at least the boss is confident; but the hurdles of growth rate and inventory remain. Whether they can launch another hit after LABUBU is the most important issue for this stock going forward, with Star People being a sign of hope. Today it rebounded 4% to HKD 155, sentiment is recovering, but a full return in one go seems unlikely. #FinancialReportObserverMultiple banks across countries have launched pilot projects for quantum-resistant encryption, and the NEAR testnet adopts the ML-DSA-65 standard.
But what about Bitcoin? Experts estimate that the upgrade will take 5-10 years, and BIP 360 is still in the draft stage.
Four major challenges:
1️⃣ Slow decentralized governance
2️⃣ Technical architecture needs to be rebuilt
3️⃣ Difficulties in migrating existing assets
4️⃣ The "immutable" narrative is locked in
Ironically: Solana successfully ran quantum-resistant signatures last December, while the veteran public chain is actually lagging behind.
$BTC $SOL $HOOD surged 13.7% in a single day, closing at $108. The core issue lies in whether the short-term boost to US stock brokers' valuations from crypto trading fees can translate into cross-asset support under the Jackson Hole macro interest rate narrative shift.
Currently, BTC has broken through $77,000, ETH is at $2,444, up 2.76%, and the crypto trading surge directly pushed $HOOD up 13.7% in one day, breaking $108. Funds also flowed into resource stocks like UEC, up 14.4%, and USAR, up 12.6%, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.71% to 3,877 points, and the Hang Seng Index dropped 2.09% to 25,465 points, showing a sharp divergence in cross-market risk appetite.
The order of market driving factors is: the magnitude of the crypto fee surge ranks highest, followed by the direction of the Jackson Hole interest rate narrative, and third is Nvidia's earnings report impact on tech stock liquidity.
The bullish scenario triggers if Jackson Hole confirms expectations of interest rate cuts, while BTC maintains trading volume above $77,000. At this point, $HOOD's fee revenue will extend to non-crypto business and solidify a market cap in the hundreds of billions; the variable to watch is growth in non-crypto business volume; the invalidation signal is Nvidia's earnings falling short and dragging down the overall US tech sector.
The bearish scenario triggers if crypto trading volume peaks short-term and then quickly declines, and Jackson Hole shows a stance of maintaining high interest rates. This would squeeze the premium supported solely by crypto fees, causing the stock price to consolidate based on fundamentals; the variable to watch is the strength of BTC support at the $77,000 level; the invalidation signal is continued strong rallies in US quantum and resource sectors taking over market sentiment.
The core condition invalidating the entire analysis is a sharp shift in macro interest rate expectations causing simultaneous volume contraction in traditional US stocks and crypto assets.
The most important variables to watch over the next 7 days are the interest rate signals released at Jackson Hole and the fund rotation rhythm between crypto and US stocks following Nvidia's earnings release.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
The US is targeting Iran again.
Trump called this "the most devastating economic action ever taken against a country." The goal is directly aimed at overthrowing the regime. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said details will be announced on the 24th, effectively setting the timeline.
Iran is not backing down. The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council said: if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will leave the Strait of Hormuz. Countries helping the US wage economic war are considered by Iran as acts of war.
Then oil prices surged to 93.78.
An institution calculated that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a quarter, US inflation in Q4 could rise by 0.6 percentage points. US gasoline prices have already risen 29% compared to a year ago.
When oil prices rise, inflation won't come down. If inflation doesn't come down, the Federal Reserve can't cut interest rates. It might even have to raise rates.
So the question is—why in the same week did $BTC and $ETH ETFs see a net inflow of $2.6 billion?
Bitcoin ETFs accounted for $1.9 billion, with BlackRock alone taking in $1.3 billion. This marks five consecutive trading days of net inflows, the strongest single week since October last year.
What exactly is the market trading?
Traditional logic is: oil price up → inflation expectations up → rate cut expectations down → risk assets down.
But this logic has a premise—that there is no better place for funds to go.
The current situation is: US Treasury yields are rising, the dollar is falling, gold is rising, and Bitcoin is also rising.
Money is not just moving between safe-haven assets; it is withdrawing from somewhere.
US Treasuries.
The US pays $1 trillion in interest annually, with $5.5 trillion in fiscal revenue.
The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007.
Borrowing is getting more expensive, and debt is growing.
When the "safest asset" starts to feel unsafe, money looks for new places.
Gold is old.
Bitcoin is new.
The $2.6 billion bought in ETFs this week is no coincidence.
Someone moved first.AAVE VS UNI｜A Straightforward Comparison of Two Major DeFi Blue Chips
Many people confuse AAVE and UNI. Both are DeFi leaders and have token burn narratives, but their underlying logic differs greatly. Here's a thorough explanation:
✅ Different Business Tracks
- UNI (Uniswap): Leading DEX spot trading platform, earning from trading fees. Users generate revenue by buying and selling tokens.
- AAVE (Aave): Leading DeFi lending platform, earning from lending interest spreads, liquidation penalties, and GHO stablecoin yields. Users generate cash flow by depositing and borrowing tokens.
✅ Token Supply & Burn Mechanisms (Key Point!)
UNI
Originally capped at 1 billion tokens, with 100 million burned at once, leaving 900 million; the contract has a built-in 2% annual perpetual inflation;
When the fee switch is enabled, trading revenue automatically goes into the contract, and fees trigger automatic burns. The higher the trading volume, the more tokens are burned, making it an automated deflationary mechanism.
AAVE
Hard cap of 16 million tokens, no fixed annual inflation, no minting out of thin air;
Burning is not automatic by contract but relies on DAO community voting to set an annual buyback budget. The protocol uses revenue to buy back tokens on the secondary market and then burns them. The buyback amount can be adjusted or paused by vote.
✅ Respective Strengths and Weaknesses
🔹UNI
Pros: Huge spot market size, burn mechanism embedded in the contract for automatic execution, simple narrative easy to hype;
Cons: 2% annual inflation is a long-term dilution; when market activity is low, fees drop and burn intensity weakens accordingly.
🔹AAVE
Pros: Fixed total supply with no new inflation, staking AAVE can enter the safety module to serve as protocol risk backstop, token carries real security value;
Cons: Burning depends on DAO voting decisions, not a mandatory permanent mechanism; lending track is highly affected by macro liquidity, with higher black swan risk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Bitcoin's rebound this time came fast and strong.
From just above 60,000 in mid-August, it surged all the way up, reaching a high near 79,500 USD, with a gain of over 20% in just a few days.
After the peak, it did not directly pull back or crash, but oscillated repeatedly between 76,000 and 78,000, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate at this level.
What is truly noteworthy is the capital flow. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for several consecutive days, totaling about 1.92 billion USD from August 17 to 21, with over 600 million USD coming in on the 20th alone.
Institutions kept buying, combined with shorts being forced to cover, which pushed the price to this height. Although the price is now consolidating, the ETF money has not stopped.
High-level oscillation itself is not a bad thing; it is a normal digestion after a rapid rise.
As long as support around 75,000 holds, the structure is not broken. Whether it can move higher later depends mainly on whether capital can continue to flow in and whether it can break through previous highs with volume.
Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the medium-term capital sentiment is clearly more positive than in the past two months. After the consolidation ends, the direction is most likely still upward. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 A very interesting phenomenon in the market recently is:
The higher the US debt, the more attention $XAUT and $BTC receive from investors.
The logic is not complicated.
The US debt has already reached the $40 trillion level, and discussions about fiscal pressure, the credit of the dollar, and the future purchasing power of the currency are heating up.
When these discussions increase, capital naturally seeks alternative assets outside the dollar system.
In the past, many people's first reaction was gold.
But now, more and more people are starting to include Bitcoin on that list.
Because in the eyes of some investors, gold represents a traditional safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin represents a scarce asset of the digital age.
The recent rise in BTC is not driven by a single factor.
On one hand, changes in US fiscal policy have made the market rethink the long-term stability of the dollar system; on the other hand, continuous inflows from ETFs, combined with improved expectations for crypto regulation, have jointly driven Bitcoin's strength.
So the real controversy in the market now is not whether Bitcoin has risen or not, but:
Is Bitcoin a risk asset, or a kind of "insurance" against a dollar credit crisis?
My view is that in the short term, it will still be influenced by risk appetite, but in the long term, more and more capital has begun to treat it as a hedge against dollar credit risk. Bitcoin just showed why liquidity matters more than narratives.
BTC jumped above $79K as spot ETF inflows returned and short positions were squeezed.
The interesting test now isn't the next price target.
It's whether demand remains once forced buying disappears.
If it does, the move looks structural. If not, the rally may have been mostly positioning.$AAVE surged above $144 in a single day, entering a dense previous resistance zone after consecutive weekly gains. The market shows a tug-of-war state driven by technical overbought conditions and spot buying pressure.
After breaking through the $140 level, the daily RSI reached 71, indicating a rapid short-term increase. The upward momentum is currently facing phased resistance from profit-taking.
The protocol treasury's daily automatic repurchase mechanism of about 292 tokens has been launched, combined with deposit size surpassing $30 billion, providing continuous spot support for the bottom price structure.
The substantial buying from cash flow repurchases has pushed the token into a valuation reshaping range, but technical overbought conditions mean bulls need to complete chip rotation above $144 as soon as possible.
If the daily candle can firmly hold above $144, the upward structure will open a channel targeting $175; if there is a volume surge with a long upper shadow at that level, the breakout pattern will be invalidated.
If high-level support weakens, the price may retest the $140 support or even probe the $120 zone; breaking below $120 would undermine the current uptrend driven by cash flow pricing.
If institutional and treasury buying stalls in the overbought zone, the current one-sided premium logic supported by repurchases will be disproven by high-level selling pressure.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is whether the $144 level can effectively convert from a previous strong resistance into a daily-level defensive support.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%🤗 Extra: Urgent reminder, focus on the market tonight
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is about to make a big move, with an emergency press conference scheduled for 2 PM Eastern Time on August 24 (2 AM Beijing Time on August 25), signaling an "Economic D-Day" against Iran.
Original quote: Dawn begins the economic battle, the strongest financial offensive in history.
To put it bluntly: don’t hold heavy positions and stay up late tonight; the market will most likely change significantly by tomorrow morning. Bitcoin’s chart is already weak, RSI is at 93, seriously overbought, and a correction and shakeout are overdue. On top of that, Yellen’s statement about Iran blocking oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz will push oil prices up, suppress inflation, delay Fed rate cuts, strengthen the dollar, tighten liquidity, and Bitcoin will behave like the US stock market—short-term volatility is unavoidable.
Altcoins and junk coins are absolutely off-limits tonight. Market makers are just waiting for a reason to spike the price; sudden news is the easiest way to trap and harvest retail investors. I’ve lost a lot on altcoins in the past and have realized that playing altcoins is just paying an IQ tax.
Now I only play $BTC and $OKB
(PS: The above is all personal prediction and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk.)$xNVDA is the most stable ballast in the market, but my approach remains unchanged: don't chase before the earnings report, wait until 8/26 to decide.
On 8/21, it closed at 214.72 (-0.98%), pre-market at 218.34, down about 5% from the high of 225.30 on 8/13, consolidating and waiting for direction. Forward PE is about 24, market cap 5.2 trillion, PE 33 is not expensive; 58 institutions are strong buyers, with an average target price of 304-316 (+40%).
Fundamentals are solid: Q1 FY2027 revenue 81.6 billion (+85%), data center 75.2 billion, EPS 1.87 beating expectations. Earnings report after market on Wednesday 8/26, market expects revenue ~92 billion (last quarter 81.6 billion), EPS 2.09. The key is not how impressive the numbers are, but the FCF profit margin and guidance. Last Q1 FCF was 48.5 billion; if this time it falls below the 53% range, valuation will be cut.
Compared to 6 coins: after crypto was forced to cover short positions today and then pulled back, NVDA remains steady following its own earnings logic. It no longer plays with beta. But before 8/26, what’s missing is "delivery"—buying on a pullback after an earnings beat or buying deeply on a miss; betting on direction now is just giving away free food.$ZEC Grayscale has only submitted the application, it has not been approved!
Remember how many times the Bitcoin ETF was rejected back then?
Zcash is still a privacy coin, which makes regulators more sensitive, so the probability of rejection is much higher than approval. Do you think it will pass?
August 25 is just the expected listing date, not the official trading date, don't get confused. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BTC halving bonus is not a get-rich-quick code (August 24)
Many newcomers think that the price will skyrocket immediately after the halving. In fact, historical data shows us that after the halving, the market will experience a long period of volatile consolidation and will not surge straight away.
After the last halving, there was also a deep correction that cleared out a large amount of high-leverage positions before the big bull market began. Now, some time has passed since the halving, and much of the supply contraction logic has already been priced in by the market. Do not treat the halving as an all-powerful bullish reason.
Halving only changes the supply; what truly drives the market up is the continuous inflow of incremental funds afterward. If external capital does not keep up, even the best narratives will struggle to sustain. Do not blindly hold based on halving logic; market signals always take precedence over theoretical logic.
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $BTC surged 23% in a week, ETH rose 27%, this is not a rebound, it's a change in trend.
BTC jumped directly from 64,000 to 79,000, a 23% weekly increase, the strongest week since March 2023. ETH simultaneously broke above 2400, with a weekly gain of over 27%. After breaking out of the range below 67,000 for several months, the shorts were swept away in one wave, with the largest single-day short liquidation in history of $1.44 billion directly wiped out.
Why the surge?
Three things combined: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced increasing the long-term Treasury buyback scale from 2 billion to at least 4 billion, US bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, and the "currency devaluation trade" restarted. Institutional ETF buying accelerated, with spot ETF inflows of 1.92 billion in a single week, the highest since October 2025. Additionally, BTC's correlation with gold rose to 0.5, and the market began pricing it as a safe-haven asset.
Altcoins are following suit.
ETH and XRP outperformed BTC in altcoin gains. The SEC and CFTC are each advancing rulemaking without waiting for the CLARITY Act. Regulatory uncertainty is decreasing, and capital is starting to flow into altcoins.
Risks have not disappeared.
BTC is still 43% below last year's high, Strategy has stopped buying and is still selling coins for cash. The last time we saw a 23% weekly surge was in 2023. But to truly confirm a trend reversal, more time is needed for validation. Next Wednesday, August 26, NVIDIA will release its earnings report. I've put together a complete analysis, let's break it down together. They will discuss capital movements in the options market, observe how much price volatility options chain pricing indicates the stock price will fluctuate, and later discuss Morningstar's reasonable valuations and the market's consensus expectations for Nvidia's revenue and earnings per share. It directly affects the overall market direction, corporate capital expenditure, the entire semiconductor sector, and all AI-related transactions. Too many companies' fate is tied to Nvidia, and the results of this financial report will truly impact the entire market. I hope this episode offers some inspiration to everyone. As the world's leading AI chip manufacturer, this financial report is a decisive event for the technology and semiconductor industries. If the earnings report significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, volatility will not be limited to Nvidia itself. It is now the company with the highest market capitalization globally and is the core driver of this AI wave. Analysts forecast revenue of about $91.8 billion, which basically matches the company's guidance of $91 billion, a 2% fluctuation, and the market consensus expects earnings per share to be $2.07. On Monday, market sentiment toward AI rebounded, and Anthropic released a very optimistic 2028 revenue forecast targeting $190-200 billion, reigniting market enthusiasm for AI infrastructure. Micron's stock price also strengthened in tandem. Compared to the same period last year, revenue will grow by 96% year-on-year, nearly 92 billion yuan in revenue, a scale and growth of this scaleZEC’s fundamentals still have a major trust overhang: the Orchard flaw was real and existed for years, while cryptographic proof that it was never exploited wasn’t possible. The emergency fix addressed the vulnerability, but the supply-integrity question remains important.
Bearish take: a strong price rebound doesn’t erase the unresolved trust issue. ZEC can stay volatile, and chasing the rally purely on momentum is risky.【Strategy Starts Selling BTC, Has $MSTR's Investment Logic Changed?】
Michael Saylor has not released the Saylor Tracker for two consecutive weeks. Strategy has also recently stopped buying $BTC and instead sold about 6.59 million shares of MSTR, raising approximately $653.1M, of which $650M was placed into USD reserves.
More notably, the company also sold 1,690 BTC at a low price, cashing out about $108.6M to repurchase STRC. This indicates that the original cycle of "issuing more shares to buy more BTC" has partially shifted to "issuing MSTR, selling BTC, and maintaining cash reserves and credit products stable."
As BTC returns to around $77,000, the 840,447 BTC held by Strategy is now above the average cost of about $75,385. However, unrealized gains do not mean structural risks have disappeared, because MSTR investors still bear dilution, dividend expenses, management decisions, and mNAV volatility.
I still prefer directly holding BTC and $ETH; if self-custody is not possible, then consider spot ETFs. Investing in MSTR is no longer just a bet on BTC appreciation but also a bet on whether Strategy's capital operations can be sustained long-term.
If MSTR no longer continues to increase BTC holdings, are you still willing to bear this additional layer of risk? Although I don't want to look, some people are still asking, so I'll explain.
How hard is it to play secondary long positions now? In the past, retail investors didn't even know what OI or FDV meant; they just followed whatever others shouted. But now, many people can read the data, and only this group still plays. They all want to compete with the whales, but as retail investors get smarter, the whales get even smarter.
Some people check the data daily, so whales can definitely manipulate the data. For small market cap coins with high control, what surface data can they manipulate?
OI can be faked by wash trading, splitting positions, and moving across exchanges.
Liquidation data can be guided: placing large orders to induce liquidations, or placing opposite orders on major exchanges to mislead retail investors, then triggering liquidations on other exchanges.
Volume: no need to say, just fake it.
Funding rates: can be controlled through wash trading.
On-chain active addresses: can be made to look however they want.
Retail investors are evolving, and so are the whales. When you see data, you must think about what the data is really trying to express and what the whales' intentions are. If you only look at the surface, it's easy to get cut. Of course, I guess I've been cut recently too from all this guessing 🥹
$BTC Exactly—after a move from $500 → $860, ZEC can look extremely tempting to short, but a strong momentum move can stay irrational longer than expected.
The bigger point is that ZEC’s rally doesn’t necessarily need a fresh ZEC-specific catalyst. Strong BTC/ETH momentum can pull higher-beta, smaller-cap assets along with it.
So the safer read is: don’t short simply because the price looks “too high.” Wait for momentum to actually break before assuming the reversal.#Kashkari says US debt is not malfunctioning, can long-term bond repurchases solve the root problem?
Kashkari stated that the current US debt is only seeing rising yields, the market is not malfunctioning, and the Federal Reserve remains focused on controlling inflation, without adjusting policies specifically to suppress debt rates.
The Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases can only improve liquidity of old debt, which is an emergency fiscal operation, not QE, and does not address the root cause of the US's high deficit bond issuance; it treats the symptoms, not the root cause. After the news, long-term bond yields briefly fell, then rebounded again, and the market has seen that the repurchase scale is limited.
Market reflection:
$BTC｜$76630, resistance at 79000, support at 73800. High long-term bond yields continue to pressure risk assets; if yields surge again, the market is prone to correction.
$ETH｜$2430, resistance at 2500, support at 2380. Altcoins are more sensitive to changes in US bond yields.
Going forward, focus on the trend of long-term bond yields; if they surge again, even if crypto sentiment is hot, be wary of macroeconomic suppression. Repurchases are more of a short-term emotional buffer and cannot change the larger debt contradictions.
Personal market record only, does not constitute any investment advice. $SNDK New week, where will SanDisk go?
OK! Brothers are back, had two waves of mainstream gains over the weekend. Now let's talk about SanDisk. The storage sector collectively declined, with Hynix being the hardest hit. After these two days of digestion, the profit-taking from SanDisk's previous surge has mostly been released. The current position is an opportunity for you to get on board.
The fundamentals haven't changed; it's still very strong, plus it still distributes money to shareholders, indicating strong financial strength. Big players and institutions have already made their moves in advance, so we can't fall behind, right? SanDisk's long-term blueprint is still intimidating, but no rush to act yet. It's expected to first reach around 1525, then enter to bottom-fish.
Strategy: Light long position around 1525, with a target tentatively set at 1600. If it breaks above the previous high, the space will open up, and then consider adding positions! #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入