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BTC: Stop just focusing on $56K, the market structure has changed
Many are still waiting around $56K, but after BTC previously dropped below $57K, it was quickly supported by funds and did not continue to break down key structures. On the contrary, the market repeatedly digested selling pressure above $62K, then rebounded all the way to around $79K–$81K.
So now, using the mindset of “$56K must return” to view the market, I think is a bit outdated.
The latest data is also worth noting: the US spot BTC ETF has recently seen continuous capital inflows, with a single week in August reaching about $1.9B net inflow; meanwhile, core PCE in July remained at 3.3%, and market expectations for the Fed’s policy path have reignited.
There are two important upcoming variables: the Jackson Hole meeting, and the BTC options expiration around $6.4B on August 28. Short-term volatility may significantly increase.
I won’t set a fixed target for the market.
If BTC continues to break upward, I’m more focused on the $84K–$87K resistance area, at which point I will consider whether there is an opportunity to hedge shorts.
The most important thing now is not to guess the lowest point, but to reassess the structure.
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #BTC #BitI noticed a small change in the DOGE ETF today. This is not a new application, and it does not mean approval is around the corner. 21Shares’ DOGE ETF has simply started using a new pricing benchmark. Honestly, news like this may have little to no impact on DOGE’s price. But it highlights an important point: “ETF has new news” ≠ “$DOGE has major bullish news.” Sometimes the change is simply related to the fund’s internal rules or backend structure. So whenever you see DOGE + ETF in the same head$HYPE Price Analysis Early August 28: $84.80 Hits New All-Time High, $92 Becomes Next Target
In the early hours of August 28, Hyperliquid (HYPE) continued its strong upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of $84.80, setting a new all-time high again. As of 1:30 AM, HYPE was priced at $85.467, up 3.87% in 24 hours, with an intraday trading range of $80.014 to $86.176. Over the past week, HYPE has surged 35%, with its market cap approaching $19 billion, ranking it among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
The AQAv2 buyback mechanism is the strongest core logic behind this rally. On August 26, Hyperliquid officially activated the AQAv2 framework, allocating about 90% of the adjusted returns generated from $6.74 billion USDC deposits (after fees) to HYPE buybacks. Based on a 3% yield estimate, the annual new buyback funds amount to approximately $182 million, representing an 18% increase over the current daily income of about $2.76 million. The first settlement is scheduled for October 3.
Regulatory expectations also provide significant momentum. The Trump administration previously indicated that Hyperliquid might soon launch in the U.S., and the CFTC is exploring compliance pathways. The U.S. spot HYPE ETF has recently seen continuous capital inflows. Additionally, Nasdaq-listed company Hyperliquid Strategies reported raising $647 million in equity capital, doubling HYPE treasury holdings to 29.3 million tokens (worth about $1.9 billion), with the company carrying no debt.
From a technical perspective, after breaking above the previous high of $77 last week, that level has turned into support. The daily RSI is between 74 and 77, indicating an overbought zone. The 1.272 Fibonacci extension level at $92.37 is viewed by analysts as the next target, offering about 10% upside from the current price. A stronger mid-term target points to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $111.93. Since August 19, the daily Supertrend indicator has remained bullish, staying valid as long as HYPE holds above $68.
The biggest short-term risk is the token unlock on August 29—14.18 million HYPE tokens will be unlocked tomorrow, valued at about $1.2 billion at current prices, accounting for 1.4% of the maximum supply and 2.7% of the current market cap. Insiders/early contributors hold 46.6% of this (about $550 million). Unlocking does not equal immediate selling—historically, May unlocks led to declines, June to sideways movement, and July to drops, but short-term supply pressure uncertainty cannot be ignored.
Key levels: Resistance above lies at $83.5–$84.5 (all-time high + 1.272 Fibonacci extension); a successful breakout could see $90, $92–$97, and $100 sequentially. Support below is at $79.5–$80.5 (lower bound of current consolidation), $76–$77 (previous high retest zone), and $68 (daily Supertrend bull/bear boundary).
Summary: HYPE set a new all-time high of $84.80 early this morning, with the AQAv2 buyback mechanism and regulatory expectations providing solid fundamental support. $92 is the short-term technical target. However, the $1.2 billion token unlock tomorrow is the most immediate major variable—if absorbed smoothly, the $90–$100 range could open; if it triggers concentrated selling, the $76–$77 retest will be the first test. Investors are advised to strictly control positions and closely monitor market reactions post-unlock.Also in this rebound, $ETH has always found itself in an awkward position: as the industry's largest smart contract infrastructure, with continuous ecosystem iteration, continuous Layer 2 expansion, and high staking scale, its fundamentals are not bad, but its performance has long been weaker than BTC, mostly following market overflow heat and rarely leading independent main rallies. Many people simply attribute ETF inflows to less than Bitcoin, but the real root lies in four structural contradictions: valuation logic, chip burden, ecosystem value capture, and external competition. From an asset positioning perspective, Bitcoin focuses on value storage, with institutional allocation logic simple and clear; Ethereum is a programmable blockchain settlement layer, its value is tied to on-chain economic activity, making valuation logic more complex. Even if spot ETFs are successfully launched, institutions will be more cautious about ETH. BTC is regarded as a digital alternative asset allocation; Besides its asset attributes, ETH also faces regulatory controversy over its securities status. Coupled with the inability of most early ETFs to provide staking yields, this directly reduces the willingness of traditional large funds to allocate funds, resulting in ETF capital volumes long lagging significantly behind Bitcoin. It's not that institutions are pessimistic about Ethereum, but rather that buying decisions are more concerning, and the pace of incremental funds entering the market is naturally slower. The heavy historical holding on to chips is a real shackle that cannot be ignored to suppress ETH's rise. The previous bull market peak accumulated massive holdings, with many participants' costs concentrated in the high range. Whenever prices rebound near these cost levels, a large number of selling positions waiting to break even will followDid nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already done the work for me 🤣. During the intraday dip, $ENA retraced to a key level and held steady. I found the support below interesting, so I went long directly, entering at 0.16224. At that time, not many dared to move; I thought the loss wouldn't be too much at this position, so I held on. Now at 0.17123, +274.9%, those on board should be waking up laughing. Don't lose patience grinding in the consolidation, then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move. Take 75% off the table first, move the stop loss to the cost price for the remaining 25%, and let the profits run if it continues to rise. The premise of compounding is staying alive; the shortcut to getting rich often leads to zero. Now is not the time to rush or chase highs; wait for the next move and a new structure to emerge before deciding. August 28 Early Morning $SNDK Trend Analysis: $1,477 "Panic Selling" Amid Triple Negative Factors Resonating in the Storage Chip Crisis
In the early morning of August 28, SanDisk (SNDK) continued its sharp decline in after-hours trading. As of 1:21 AM, SNDK was quoted at $1,477.71, down 4.88% in 24 hours, with an intraday trading range of $1,458.16 to $1,585.87. Previously, the stock had already plunged over 14% during regular trading on Tuesday, and its price has dropped more than 37% from the June all-time high of $2,354. Although SNDK has still gained over 450% year-to-date, August has seen it enter a severe correction channel.
📉 Triple Negative Factors Simultaneously Hit SNDK
First, earnings guidance fell short of "super high expectations." SanDisk's fiscal 2026 Q4 results were "epic"—revenue of $8.97 billion (up 51% quarter-over-quarter, up 372% year-over-year), gross margin as high as 84.6%, and adjusted EPS of $39.25. However, fiscal 2027 Q1 revenue guidance of $10.3–10.8 billion (midpoint $10.55 billion) was below the market expectation of $11.1 billion. Against the backdrop of gross margins pushed to a historic high above 80% and extremely crowded positioning, the "past exceeding expectations" could not offset the "slightly below expectations future," making the guidance miss the core trigger for the sell-off.
Second, AI valuation concerns continue to ferment. Market doubts about the returns on massive AI investments are intensifying. Nvidia's recent push for a new round of AI infrastructure deals with a potential total scale exceeding $750 billion has exacerbated worries that AI demand is being "artificially inflated." Capital is rapidly withdrawing from crowded semiconductor and AI hardware sectors, shifting toward defensive sectors.
Third, intensified competition from China. After CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) completed its IPO, concerns about the global storage chip supply-demand landscape deepened further. Storage giants like Micron and SK Hynix also weakened simultaneously, and systemic sell-offs in the sector continue.
📊 Technical Analysis: $1,470 as the Decisive Bull-Bear Point
SNDK is currently near a critical decision zone. RSI6 is only 37.29, RSI12 is 30.25, and RSI24 is 33.18—short- and mid-term cycles have fully entered oversold territory, with RSI12 approaching the oversold threshold of 30, increasing the probability of a short-term oversold rebound. EMA5 ($1,477.44) and EMA10 ($1,480.78) have formed a death cross, while EMA20 ($1,495.18) remains above, exerting resistance. Regarding KDJ, K is 58.21, D is 45.59, and J is 83.43—J is relatively high, indicating rebound momentum has not fully faded but is limited.
Key levels: The first support below is in the $1,440–1,400 range—this is the immediate zone bulls need to defend; if this area is continuously broken, $1,340 will become the next critical test level; deeper support lies at $1,250—if lost, the bullish structure will face a complete reassessment. On the upside, $1,530–1,550 is the first rebound target; $1,600–1,650 is the most important mid-term resistance zone—if this area is surpassed, this correction may be considered a completed shakeout.
⚠️ Risk Warning
SNDK has surged over 450% this year, with extremely crowded positioning. Any "less than perfect" guidance could be magnified by the market. Although the company announced a $14 billion new stock buyback plan and signed long-term contracts covering about 50% of FY27 planned shipments with customers, market sentiment is in a typical late-cycle behavior: everyone knows the fundamentals are better than before, but no one wants to be the last to hold the bag.
Summary: SNDK plunged 4.88% early morning to $1,477, hit by triple negative factors of earnings guidance below expectations, AI valuation concerns, and Chinese competition. The $1,470 level will determine the short-term direction—holding it suggests a rebound toward $1,530–1,550; breaking it opens the $1,400–1,340 range. Investors are advised to strictly control positions, avoid high leverage chasing rallies or panics, and closely monitor the $1,440–1,400 support zone.按现在 8月28日凌晨的盘面重新看，这张图里的 $BTC 78,640、$SOL 101 已经是滞后价格了。现在BTC重新回到约 $80,000 一带，SOL也已经冲到 $109 附近。**不同交易所报价会有几百美元差异，但大方向一致。  🔥 现在市场真正交易的，不只是“降不降息” 这张图最重要的一句话其实是： “市场将迎来更大波动。” 我认为这个判断是对的，而且现在已经开始兑现。 当前市场形成了一个非常特殊的组合： BTC重新站上80K + ETF资金连续回流 + 美元走弱/财政赤字担忧 + 美债收益率重新升高 + Warsh首次杰克逊霍尔讲话 所以现在是： 基本面偏多 + 技术面高位 + 宏观事件临界 这就是为什么我现在不会简单喊“牛市继续梭哈”，也不会直接喊“80K见顶”。 ⸻ ① BTC：现在最关键的不是78,640，而是80K能不能站稳 最新行情显示BTC重新回到 $80K附近，此前最高冲到约 $81,200—81,300，而市场目前把 $80,000—82,850 看作重要压力区，把 $77,500—78,000 看作重要支撑。  所以现在BTC实际上是在走： 62KAfter BTC surged to $80,000, it fell back to around $79,000, but one data point cannot be ignored:
The US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.8 billion.
My judgment is: this rally initially did have a short squeeze component, but subsequently, the ETF's real money continued to buy in, making the market structure healthier than a simple "short squeeze rebound."
Next, focus on two key levels:
Around $82,800 is the previous high resistance; breaking through and holding above it is the only chance to further challenge $100,000; if it falls back to around $75,000, it indicates that the chasing funds are starting to retreat.
You can be bullish on the trend now, but it’s not wise to ignore volatility. Do you think BTC can break through the previous high in one go this time? This Friday, the Bitcoin market will witness a rare concentrated expiration of options with a nominal value reaching $6.4 billion. The settlement of this massive contract has pushed this week's volatility expectations to the extreme and added a layer of tension to already sensitive risk assets. 📉 Looking at the current holdings distribution, buyers clearly have the upper hand, with large amounts accumulating at the $75,000 and $80,000 levels, fueling a strong bullish sentiment in the market. However, a detail that is easily overlooked is that the biggest pain point for these options contracts is near $68,000, which is quite a distance from the current price. This position means both bulls and bears have ample room to harvest, and the probability of a fierce two-way pull before and after settlement is not low. What is even more noteworthy is that this option expiry is not an isolated event. U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations reignited market concerns about the path of rate hikes; The release of Nvidia's latest earnings report also stirred up global capital markets; Coupled with the Fed meeting and a concentrated statement from officials, multiple variables overlapping simultaneously have made market sentiment highly sensitive. 📊 In the coming trading days, it is unlikely to see a calm movement. If the price drops rapidly, it is likely to be immediately taken over and pulled back by bull capital; And after a surge, it may also face concentrated pressure from bears. This kind of two-way sweeping scenario is not uncommon during options settlement weeks. Options themselves do not directly determine direction, but they act like amplifiers, displaying every price fluctuation exponentially on the market. For full-price fluctuationsThis week exploded through the ceiling — BTC surged 26% from 62,400 to break 81,200 on Monday, hitting a 5-month high. ETH soared 31% in the same period, surpassing 2,500; XRP jumped nearly 50% in a week; SOL hit 102; ZEC surged 70% in a week, reaching an 8-year high. The entire market's weekly market cap surged by $474 billion, with the Fear & Greed Index hitting 81, "Extreme Greed".
Even more explosive was the short squeeze: during BTC's break above 80,000, about $1.06 billion in short positions were liquidated. Bitcoin shorts lost approximately $3 billion over the week, with daily liquidations across the network exceeding $600 million, a double whammy for longs and shorts.
Underlying this are three catalysts: spot BTC+ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $2.6 billion in one week (the strongest since October), with BlackRock's iShares absorbing 80% of that; the White House pushed the CLARITY Act + SEC's crypto framework shifting towards legislation, and Standard Chartered directly issued compliant stablecoins; US long bond repos + a weak dollar loosened risk assets.
But the tone shifted starting Wednesday: BTC retraced to 79,000, ETH held 2,470, whales (Hyperliquid large holders closed 60,000 ETH/1,200 BTC, Wang Chun reduced 23,000 ETH) took profits at highs, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped back to 65. Now it's a battle to defend the 80,000 level — if ETF inflows continue, it could surge to 85,000-90,000; if inflows stop and leverage liquidations occur, it could fall back to 73,000 at any time. With options expiration week, volatility will only get crazier.The crypto market on Thursday surged then pulled back, with BTC retreating below 79,000 after hitting 80,000 (about -1.2% in 24h), ETH holding near 2,490; SOL bucked the trend with a +4% rise breaking 101, XRP dropped nearly 3%, and CoinDesk 20 pulled back about 2.1%. Spot BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for 8 consecutive days (accumulating about 2.8 billion), providing support, but futures open interest declined, and the fear and greed index fell from 74, indicating short-term profit-taking.
On the macro side, US July PCE remains sticky, and rate hike bets are resurging, with short-term US Treasury yields rising, suppressing risk appetite; the 83,000–86,000 range is a dense supply zone, and only a firm hold above 83,000 can open the way to 85,000, otherwise a retest of 73,000 is expected. In terms of trading, avoid chasing highs, watch for continued ETF inflows and the impact of US stock NVDA earnings reports, with increased volatility expected during options expiration week.The pullback of $MRVL before the earnings report is more aligned with a concentrated risk reduction behavior by funds ahead of high expectations being realized. The advanced supply chain and data center earnings have confirmed AI network demand, with capital expenditures transmitted to the 1.6T and CPO key links. If the earnings report on AI network capital expenditures and guidance exceeds expectations, the recovery of risk appetite will drive valuation rebound. The failure conditions to watch are whether the subsequent announced performance guidance is below the market's high expectations and whether the 1.6T delivery pace slows down.
#Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled? #StarkWare made the first quantum-secure transaction on the BTC mainnetLooking back at the previous cycle, $BTC experienced a strong rebound after a sharp decline, but the market did not immediately confirm the bottom and subsequently experienced new volatility and pullbacks. $ETH also followed a similar volatility path at that time. Now, the market has once again entered a phase worth watching. 👀 🟠 $BTC recently surged to around $81K, then fell back to the $78K–$79K range for consolidation. 🔵 $ETH continued to fluctuate around $2.48K–$2.52K, with overall stable performance. But this time, the biggest difference from before may not be the price itself...... Rather, institutional funds are continuously entering the market. 📊 Latest news: Recently, spot Bitcoin ETF capital flows have strengthened again, attracting about $2B+ in funds over the past week, and overall ETF demand also rebounded significantly in August. After a rapid rise, BTC pulled back to around $79K, and the market is currently more characterized by profit-taking and consolidation. This means the current market environment is clearly different from previous bear market phases: past rebounds relied more on short-term trading capital. Now, ETFs are providing sustained institutional demand for BTC. Of course, this does not mean prices will continue to pull back. The macro environment remains an important variable. Inflation, interest rate expectations, and Jackson Hole policy signals may all increase short-term market volatility. 👀 Focus next on: 🟠 Why the latest labor-market report matters for Bitcoin, interest rates, and the Jackson Hole debate August 27, 2026 The latest U.S. jobless-claims report delivered the kind of headline that can quickly unsettle risk markets: initial claims came in below expectations, Federal Reserve officials were again warning that inflation remains too high, and Bitcoin slipped below the closely watched $79,000 level after briefly trading above $80,000. That combination has encouraged a simple market narrative#BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies key level battle
I am Brother Ci. After BTC surged to 80,000 then pulled back, options concentrated expiration is amplifying the key level battle. On August 28, about $6.44 billion worth of BTC options expire, with some positions distributed between 75,000 and 80,000. Both bulls and bears will make moves in the last two days.
K33 research shows this rally included the largest single-day short squeeze on record; futures open interest then declined, indicating short covering was a major driver of the earlier gains. ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion last week, with incremental funds entering the market, but the rapid price surge also increased holders' willingness to take profits. The short squeeze effect is weakening; whether ETFs and spot buying can continue to absorb high-level selling will determine if this rally is a trend recovery or a temporary rebound.
The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Brother Ci has spoken, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL The US spot BTC ETF has maintained net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, accumulating about $2.8 billion in capital inflow, and the cumulative net inflow in August has also exceeded $3 billion. The funds have indeed returned, which is one of the most important changes in this round of rebound.
But the problem lies here: although the ETF continues to have inflows, the latest single-day inflow has started to slow down from the previous peak. At the same time, BTC pulled back after surging above $80,000, indicating that there is also considerable selling pressure and profit-taking at this level.
Personally, I think we should no longer simply view "breaking through $80,000 means the bull market continues."
$80,000 is more like a verification line.
If the price pulls back next and ETF funds can still continue to flow in, and spot buying can gradually absorb the sell orders around $75,000 to $80,000, then this wave has a chance to transform from a "short squeeze rebound" into a genuine trend recovery.
But if ETF inflows start to noticeably weaken and BTC falls back below $75,000, then be cautious that this rise might be more of a short-term short squeeze rather than the start of a new upward trend.
Additionally, around August 28, there will be a batch of large BTC options expiring, with market interest concentrated around the $75,000 to $80,000 range. Option expirations themselves may not determine direction, but near key price levels, they can indeed amplify short-term volatility.
So my current view is simple: the hardest part for BTC has passed to some extent, but the most critical verification is just beginning.
The previous rise from the low to $80,000 relied on improved liquidity, ETF capital inflows, and short covering pushing it up together. Whether it can continue to rise from here can no longer rely solely on short squeezes.
What truly determines the next phase is whether incremental funds can continue to enter the market.
Price is more honest than words.
If BTC can repeatedly fluctuate around $80,000 and then stabilize, the upside space will truly open; if it surges and then gives back all gains, this rebound might just be an opportunity for trapped and profit-taking holders to exit.
I personally prefer to define the current phase as a "trend recovery stage" rather than directly declaring a new bull market has begun.
From now on, don’t just focus on how much BTC has risen.
Just watch two things: whether ETF funds continue to flow in, and whether the $75,000 to $80,000 range can hold after BTC pulls back.
Once these two answers come out, the next big direction will be roughly clear.
$BTC $SOL $ETH
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $ASTER has surged again, the daily chart shot up from around 0.60 to 0.76, now resting near 0.71.
It didn’t fly out of thin air. On August 24th, a buyback and burn was reported: 4.24 million in fees were used to buy back for staking, and the team’s share was burned in equal amount. Plus, the Perp DEX has been driven by the compliance narrative from Hyperliquid.
But don’t romanticize it: back in June, it rose from 0.58 to 0.80, then quickly fell back. The burn is real, and so is the unlocking.
30-day +18%, but it has already pulled back a bit in 7 days. The 0.68–0.70 range is the key level for this wave. If it can’t hold, it will remain range-bound. Don’t mistake a pullback for a dump, nor a rebound for a takeoff.
DYOR, this is not a trade call. Tonight, CPO's sell-off was quite fierce, but I still lean bullish
$NVDA has already validated AI demand, and the earnings reports from optical communication and data center chain companies earlier were generally strong
The entire chain transmits orders and capital expenditures to each other, and $MRVL is again in a key position with high-speed interconnect, 1.6T, CPO, and custom chips. It's hard for me to believe it will suddenly falter
Today feels more like a concentrated risk reduction ahead of earnings with high expectations. What we really need to guard against is earnings that are "good but not explosive enough"
If guidance, 1.6T, and AI network demand continue to exceed expectations, this pullback might actually offer a rare opportunity to add positions.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 [NVIDIA Hits New High, But BTC Just Stuck at 80K? Tonight's Market Is Interesting]
NVIDIA's earnings exceeded expectations, reigniting the AI sector, and chip stocks are collectively recovering. Even more interestingly, BTC has climbed back above 80K, and ETH is also near 2520.
But I'm not in a hurry to chase right now.
Because NVIDIA's positive news has already been priced in, and tomorrow there's a speech by Wash at Jackson Hole. What we really need to watch tonight is whether this risk appetite can continue to spread from the US stock market to the crypto market.
BTC at 80K and ETH at 2500 are both critical levels tonight. Holding above them is the only reason to keep pushing higher; if they fail to hold after a rally, be cautious of a profit-taking pullback.
Also, volatile US stock tokens like SanDisk are worth watching. If AI sentiment continues to spread, it might be even more exciting than BTC.
Do you think 80K will become support tonight, or will it get smashed down again? #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC $ETH $NVDA 📊 $LAB Contract Liquidation Express (August 28)
Direction switched twice, shorts went from extreme dominance to being reversed 3.17 times by longs, with a total 24-hour liquidation of only $22,800, a very small scale, representing a low-liquidity invalid market...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $4.39 $0 $4.39
4 hours $3,153.63 $503.98 $2,649.65
12 hours $4,852.79 $2,062.28 $2,790.52
24 hours $22,800 $17,300 $5,458.02
1-hour short dominance (longs zero), volume only $4.39, considered invalid scale; 4-hour shorts crushed longs by 5.26 times, volume surged to $2,600; 12-hour shorts slightly shrank to 1.35 times, volume rose to $2,100, longs and shorts nearly balanced; 24-hour longs violently reversed by 3.17 times, liquidation $17,300 vs shorts $5,458, total $22,800. 12-hour liquidation accounts for 21.3% of 24-hour total, concentration is low, longs gained momentum in the latter half of 24 hours. Longs violently reversed shorts, triggering a second short squeeze, but total daily volume only $22,800, representing a low-liquidity invalid market with no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; this coin has extremely poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 27
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: unresolved inflation stickiness, AI computing power king's report card, Bitcoin oscillating at high levels amid multiple catalysts—three forces converging in the same time window.
📊 Core PCE steady at 3.3%: Wash's Jackson Hole debut is key
US July core PCE price index year-on-year 3.3%, unchanged from June; month-on-month 0.2%. Overall PCE year-on-year 3.7%, higher than expected 3.6%. Meanwhile, real personal consumption expenditure month-on-month near zero growth, consumption momentum clearly weakening.
The bigger focus is this Friday: Fed Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28. The market is highly attentive to Wash's diagnosis of inflation causes—whether high inflation stems from one-off shocks like tariffs and Middle East conflicts or structural imbalances from economic overheating. This judgment will determine interest rate direction and is currently the biggest internal Fed division—three officials voted for a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. Against the backdrop of internal rifts becoming public, Wash's speech is seen as a critical window to restore Fed credibility.
🖥️ Nvidia Q2 revenue $96.221 billion: AI computing power “money printer” still accelerating
After market close on August 26, Nvidia delivered an earnings beat: Q2 revenue $96.221 billion, up 106% year-on-year, exceeding market expectation of $92.38 billion; data center revenue $89 billion, up 117%, accounting for 92.5% of total revenue; Non-GAAP net profit $53.954 billion.
The bigger surprise is the Q3 guidance—the company expects revenue around $108 billion. Nvidia proves with data that AI computing power demand is still accelerating, and "burning money" is continuously turning into "making money."
₿ BTC surged then pulled back: $6.4 billion options expiry amplifies key level battle
Bitcoin briefly broke $81,000 this Monday but then retreated to around $78,000 for consolidation. This rally was driven by "devaluation trades" and ETF funds—last week spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $1.92 billion.
The bigger test is Friday: Deribit will have about 81,700 Bitcoin options expiring, with a notional value of about $6.4 billion. Call option open interest is highly concentrated at $75,000 ($236 million) and $80,000 ($157 million), with the biggest pain point at $68,000. Combined with Wash's speech as a chain catalyst, the long-short showdown at the $80,000 level is imminent.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: core PCE steady at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness unresolved; Wash's Jackson Hole speech will be the key indicator for September rate hikes; Nvidia's $96.2 billion revenue and $108 billion guidance prove AI computing power demand is still accelerating; Bitcoin retreated after briefly testing $80,000, and the $6.4 billion options expiry will amplify the key level battle. LAB contract liquidation totaled only $22,800 for the whole day, representing extremely low liquidity invalid market, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into top assets. When inflation data, central bank speeches, AI earnings, and crypto options converge in the same time window—the market is waiting for Wash to provide direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 If we take the Bitcoin/Gold (BTC/Gold) ratio as a reference indicator, the imagination space for this market cycle is actually quite interesting.
Currently, gold is about $4,600 per ounce, and Bitcoin is around $80,000.
Assuming Bitcoin challenges the previous BTC/Gold ratio high again in the future:
📌 Scenario 1: Gold remains at the current level
If BTC/Gold returns to the historical extreme, Bitcoin's corresponding valuation could reach about $180,000 to $190,000.
📌 Scenario 2: Gold continues to hit new highs
If gold rises further and BTC/Gold again returns to historical highs, then Bitcoin's potential price range could be pushed to about $210,000 to $230,000.
This is not a price prediction but more like a valuation thought experiment:
If Bitcoin regains its historically strong position relative to gold, while gold itself also continues to rise, then BTC's target range would be significantly elevated.
It is worth noting that the recent market environment is also changing: Bitcoin has climbed back near $80,000, while gold remains at a high level of about $4,600 per ounce.
Therefore, instead of only focusing on BTC/USD, it is also worth continuously observing BTC/Gold.
If this ratio breaks through the historical high again, Bitcoin above $200,000 would no longer be just a simple price imagination but would become a valuation scenario worth discussing. $SOL closed above 107.94, but the 18.5% volume increase is not yet an acceleration
At 01:00 close, $SOL moved from 107.18 to 108.94, up 1.64%, confirming the first close above the 107.94 confirmation line.
Volume rose from 157,800 to 187,000 coins, only an 18.5% increase; the high was 109.49. Price confirmed, volume moderate.
The next candle must hold above 107.94 and close above 109.49 to be considered acceleration; closing below 107.94 confirms a downgrade.
My stance: confirmation established, but volume is not yet at a level to chase the rally. Will you wait for the 109.49 close or wait for volume to expand further?
SOL-USDT spot 1H, confirm=1, as of 01:00 UTC+8. For observation only.
#SOL$BTC & $ETH : HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, support#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest $BTC market cap surpasses $1.6 trillion, OI continues to decline, and funds have not genuinely supported this major rally, increasing the risk of chasing highs.
It can be judged that the market is mainly driven upward by a short squeeze.
The spot ETF entering tens of billions in a week is a secondary reason.
Next, the market will face challenges.
Bulls keep increasing positions to realize profits, making the short squeeze hard to sustain. For prices to continue rising, spot market support is needed, with real capital inflows to push prices up.
Last year, prices faced similar challenges at this level.
Then, MicroStrategy financed tens of billions of dollars and various spot ETFs launched, with traditional financial institutions entering the space, bringing nearly $100 billion in cash flow, pushing prices to $120,000.
My personal judgment is that such conditions are unlikely to occur again now.
Reasons:
1. MicroStrategy has already spent over $60 billion buying coins and has started selling. The probability of another round of tens of billions of dollars investment is zero.
2. In the spot market, there are many trapped positions above 80,000. Capital inflows will face the risk of carrying these positions, easily taking on others' losses.
3. From 2024 to the end of 2025 is the period when ETFs will be intensively approved, meaning they start from zero, with capital inflows of hundreds of millions or even billions. However, ETFs now already hold positions from their inception year, so the capital inflow may not match the scale of that year.
4. MicroStrategy's position is too heavy. If it does not actively fund price increases, any orders built above its cost may become tools to carry its positions. If the coin price rises by $1, it earns $800,000 unrealized profit, which can be realized anytime. MicroStrategy now is not the same as before. The largest shareholder is no longer Saylor; he has become the third largest shareholder. Therefore, his beliefs may not be supported by the board, increasing the likelihood of MicroStrategy changing its strategy.
In summary, I believe the probability of $BTC continuing a major rally breaking through 90,000 is greatly reduced.SOL leads the rally, BTC hovers around 80,000, XRP pulls back from highs — three assets, three different rhythms
$SOL continues to lead mainstream coins, surging over 8%, with a cumulative gain of about 44% this month, marking the strongest monthly performance since 2024, and the price has returned above $105. The direct catalyst is the historic governance vote by Solana network validators — the SIMD-550 proposal aims to double the inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, shortening the time to reach the final 1.5% inflation rate from 5.7 years to 2.8 years. The result is expected to be announced within hours after the end of Epoch 1023. The RSI on the 14th has approached 84.5, indicating severe overbought conditions.
$BTC hit an intraday high of $80,808, returning to the 80,000 level. Three driving forces: nine consecutive days of net inflows into the US spot ETF, short positions being liquidated, and the US Treasury expanding long-term bond repos. However, trading volume between 80,000 and 90,000 has been relatively low, with a strong supply wall near 83,000.
$XRP rose 5.5% in 24 hours and 19% for the week but has pulled back consecutively from the $1.66 resistance level. $1.40 is a key support.
SOL relies on narrative, BTC on macro factors, XRP is waiting for direction. Tonight, Fed Chair will speak at Jackson Hole for the first time — a dovish tone would confirm 80,000, a hawkish tone would say goodbye to 75,000.
Old K has finished speaking. Ponder it carefully. Why is this rebound different from the previous wave at 83000? Back then, I would say those wanting to cash out could do so, but this time I wouldn’t say that because I believe the bear market has officially ended. Once the bull market is confirmed, there’s no need to do these kinds of swings; it might even disrupt the entire rhythm. Although the two waves have the same increase, the volume behind them and the position of crossing above the short-term holders’ cost line have completely different meanings.
In the short term, $BTC is moving below 79000 in an increasingly narrow convergence, with lows gradually rising, showing a very strong posture and no signs of weakness. Absolutely do not short recklessly.
83000 exactly coincides with the 365-day moving average, which is the big boss in the early bull market; the closer to this resistance, the greater the pressure. If it can create a higher high around 85000, then trigger a 15% pullback, it will come down to around 72000. After the volume breakout in 2019, it immediately dropped nearly 15%, and after touching the 365-day moving average in 2023, it pulled back about 22%. This is the position I most look forward to and consider extremely critical. When it really arrives, I will use a short stop loss close by to seize a short-term entry opportunity for a large-scale move, with initial actual leverage not exceeding 3x.
Friends who are completely out of the market need not worry; the next opportunity will come soon. We held on together when everyone was looking at 40,000 or even 30,000, and caught the almost perfect start at 59,000. Now it’s indeed easiest to develop a fear of heights, but a bull market reversal is priceless. At 22:00 tonight, three events collide: Warsh's speech, the initial non-farm payroll benchmark, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, with the market holding its breath for direction.
BTC climbed above 80k but was pushed back, ETH is grinding around 2490 repeatedly, HYPE hit a new bear market high but both bulls and bears are struggling—just after rising it was swallowed, just after dropping it V-shaped back, a typical squeeze before news.
Here are some key levels first:
BTC: Above 79,200 is slightly bullish, 80k above is a short-term resistance cluster
ETH: Holding 2,440 targets 2,550→2,600
HYPE: The trend remains, but 82.0 is the short-term lifeline; break it and be cautious
Warsh's tone decides everything. If he leans dovish or avoids a clear path, liquidity expectations return, and BTC will likely first break above 80k; if hawkish and keeps rate hike options, short-term pressure, but "no stance" itself is often interpreted by the market as dovish—this ambiguous zone is easiest for bulls to exploit.
Regarding non-farm payrolls, July data was already weak, the market expects marginal downward revisions, the real surprise is whether the revision is large enough.
My choice: no adding positions, wait for Warsh to speak before moving. The worst move is a spike then pullback; saving bullets is more important than rushing.
How are you planning to position yourself? $SOL sol is about to undergo a deflationary reduction by halfNVIDIA this time not only stabilized its own stock price but also "locked in" the three major sectors behind it: storage and optical modules all rose collectively after hours, and none of it is a coincidence.
The key is a number: years of supply commitments jumped from last quarter's $119B to $279B, a single-quarter increase of 134%, with the increment mainly coming from memory procurement. Jensen Huang is not predicting demand; he is preemptively buying out orders for the entire upstream chain.
Breaking down the transmission, the two chains each have their own way of rising:
1) Storage is the most direct. NVIDIA's CFO said, "Memory has entered extreme pricing, and it will be even higher next year," which means NVIDIA is endorsing the memory price increase with its own gross margin—it would rather let Q4 gross margin drop to 71-72% than lose the stock. Korean stocks $SKHY and $SNDK rose, and $MU followed after hours. Shortage equals pricing power; this is the hardest fact.
2) Optical modules/CPO: benefiting from the "hundreds of billions guidance" secondary dividend. Q3's $108B means data centers continue to expand, with $COHR, $Credo, $Astera, and $Aaoi all rising—they are not selling chips, but the vessels that connect chips.
Don't overlook the reverse risk: the current storage price increase is a "shortage premium." Whether it can continue in the next phase depends on how much memory each accelerator actually uses to absorb capacity, not just pushing prices based on shortage.
One earnings report stabilizes three chains, relying not on how strong NVIDIA is, but on the fact that it stands upstream of everyone's orders. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 **The medium to long-term weakening of the US dollar is almost a sure bet.**
Currently, the DXY US Dollar Index has dropped to **98.8**, breaking below the 99 mark, hitting a three-month low.
**Three major forces bearish on the US dollar:**
**1. The Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates**
- Federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, Citibank expects it to drop to 3.25% by year-end
- The first rate cut expectation has been pushed from September to October, but the direction remains unchanged
- Rate cut → US Treasury yields decline → US dollar assets become less attractive → capital outflows
**2. US fiscal mismanagement**
- This fiscal year’s deficit is expected to be $2 trillion, with national debt continuously expanding
- The 30-year yield once reached 5.34% (highest since 2007)
- The Treasury is forced to expand bond buybacks (from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation), essentially "flooding the market to prop it up"
- Brookings Institution economists directly warn: this is a "debt crisis turning into a currency crisis," following the same path as Japan
**3. Political uncertainty**
- Midterm elections approaching, policy swings
- The Trump administration has no intention to cut the deficit
**Institutional views:**
- Citibank: DXY will fall below 100 in the next 12 months
- BCA Research: clearly recommends shorting the US dollar, buying euros, yen, and gold
- More pessimistic technical analysis: if it breaks below 95.55, a structural collapse to **90** is possible
**What this means for you — this is the core logic behind holding BTC:**
Bitcoin’s rise from $64K to $80K was catalyzed on the surface by bond buybacks, but essentially it’s a **"debasement trade"** — capital fleeing US dollar assets into gold and BTC.
Last week, 13 BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of **$1.92 billion**, the largest single-week inflow in 10 months. Institutions are not speculating short-term; they are hedging against US dollar depreciation.
**Simply put:**
- The weaker the US dollar → the stronger BTC and gold
- The later the Fed cuts rates and the larger the fiscal deficit → the greater the long-term pressure on the US dollar
- This is not a few months’ trend, but a **2-3 year major trend**
Holding BTC/SOL spot without moving is essentially going long on the "US dollar debasement" mega trend. If the Fed Chair’s speech tomorrow leans dovish, the dollar will drop again, and BTC and SOL will step up another level.
**In one sentence: your position aligns with the macro trend, just hold on.**📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Express (August 28)
Shorts have gone from extreme crushing to continuous exhaustion, with a 24-hour cumulative liquidation exceeding $5.85 million, concentration at 56%, forming an inverted V-shaped exhaustion trajectory...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $165,300 $60,300 $104,900
4 hours $2,140,700 $189,800 $1,950,900
12 hours $3,274,500 $468,800 $2,805,700
24 hours $5,850,500 $892,900 $4,957,600
In 1 hour, shorts tested control with a 1.74x ratio, volume at $104,900, longs and shorts nearly balanced; in 4 hours, shorts surged to a peak of 10.28x, volume soared to $1,950,900, shorts took full control with a crushing posture; in 12 hours, shorts retreated to 5.98x, volume rose to $2,805,700; in 24 hours, shorts further dropped to 5.55x, liquidation at $4,957,600 versus longs at $892,900, totaling $5,850,500. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 56% of the 24-hour total, indicating a moderately high concentration—shorts completed most of the harvesting within 12 hours, and the ratio declined from 5.98x to 5.55x in the latter 12 hours, with short squeeze momentum continuously weakening and the long-short gap accelerating toward balance. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; although the direction is bearish, momentum is weakening, so avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 27
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: unresolved inflation stickiness, AI computing power king's report, and Bitcoin oscillating at high levels amid multiple catalysts—three forces converging in the same time window.
📊 Core PCE steady at 3.3%: Wash's Jackson Hole debut is key
The US July core PCE price index year-on-year is 3.3%, unchanged from June; month-on-month 0.2%. Overall PCE year-on-year is 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. Meanwhile, real personal consumption expenditure growth is near zero month-on-month, showing a clear weakening in consumption momentum.
The bigger focus is this Friday: Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28. The market is highly attentive to Wash's diagnosis of inflation causes—whether high inflation stems from one-off shocks like tariffs and Middle East conflicts or structural imbalances from economic overheating. This judgment will determine interest rate direction and is currently the biggest internal Fed division—three officials voted for a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. Against the backdrop of internal fractures becoming public, Wash's speech is seen as a critical window to restore Fed credibility.
🖥️ Nvidia Q2 revenue $96.221 billion: AI computing power “money printer” still accelerating
After market close on August 26, Nvidia delivered an earnings report exceeding expectations: Q2 revenue $96.221 billion, up 106% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of $92.38 billion; data center revenue $89 billion, up 117%, accounting for 92.5% of total revenue; Non-GAAP net profit $53.954 billion.
The bigger surprise is the Q3 guidance—the company expects revenue around $108 billion. Nvidia proves with data that AI computing power demand is still accelerating, and "burning money" is continuously turning into "making money."
₿ BTC surges then falls: $6.4 billion options expiry amplifies key level battle
Bitcoin once broke above $81,000 this week but then retreated to oscillate around $78,000. This rally was driven by "devaluation trades" and ETF funds—last week spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow was $1.92 billion.
The bigger test is Friday: Deribit will have about 81,700 Bitcoin options expiring, with a notional value of about $6.4 billion. Call option open interest is highly concentrated at $75,000 ($236 million) and $80,000 ($157 million), with the maximum pain point at $68,000. Coupled with Wash's speech as a chain catalyst, the long-short showdown at the $80,000 level is imminent.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same picture: core PCE steady at 3.3% proves inflation stickiness unresolved; Wash's Jackson Hole speech will be the key indicator for September rate hikes; Nvidia's $96.2 billion revenue and $108 billion guidance prove AI computing power demand is still accelerating; Bitcoin briefly tested $80,000 then retreated to consolidate, with $6.4 billion options expiry amplifying the key level battle. $HYPE contract shorts have crashed from a 10.28x peak to 5.55x, with cumulative liquidation of $5.85 million, concentration at 56%, and short squeeze momentum continuously weakening. When inflation data, central bank speeches, AI earnings, and crypto options converge in the same time window—the market is waiting for Wash to provide direction. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $ETH Ethereum's volume and price performance is positive, and it may continue to rise in the short term?
In the analysis on August 24
2547 and 2221 are the key levels to determine whether this Ethereum market trend is a "reversal" or a "rebound."
Currently, the latest volume, price, and capital flow performance are leaning towards an optimistic scenario.
After $ETH broke through the 2465 resistance level on August 21, it briefly pulled back to 2355 but then broke through 2465 again. During the recent days of consolidation, it has mostly remained above 2465.
More importantly, from the volume-price relationship:
The trading volume during the downtrend in the consolidation period since August 21 is significantly lower than the volume during the uptrend from August 19 to 21.
This indicates that the selling pressure in the market is not strong, and at least for now, there is no obvious concentrated profit-taking.
Additionally, from the Ethereum spot capital flow data I have been tracking, since August 19, only August 25 saw a net outflow of funds, and the scale was significantly smaller than the net inflows on August 20 and August 21.
The volume, price, and capital flow performances are basically consistent:
Volume expands on the rise, contracts on the fall, and the capital flow has not shown obvious deterioration.
Therefore, my current judgment on Ethereum is more optimistic compared to August 24:
The probability of a short-term drop below 2221 is temporarily low, while the probability of retesting 2547 or even breaking through 2547 is increasing.
If a volume breakout above 2547 occurs later, it would mean a significantly higher possibility of evolving into a larger-scale upward structure.$BTC $ETH $SOL
If BTC can firmly hold the $80K zone, the broader bull-market outlook could become even stronger.
My personal long-term targets: BTC: $150K in 2027, with a possible cycle peak near $300K in 2029. ETH: $9K in 2027, potentially reaching $15K in 2029. SOL: $350 in 2027, with a possible peak around $900 in 2029.
These are simply my own bullish projections, not financial advice. The market will decide whether they become reality.🔥 BITCOIN IS STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKE GOLD AND THAT’S INTERESTING
I can’t be the only one noticing this.
Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has climbed to its highest level since 2020, while its correlation with the Nasdaq is sitting near a 1 year low.
That’s a pretty interesting shift.
BTC may be behaving less like a high-beta tech asset and more like a scarce, macro-driven store of value.
If this trend continues, the next Bitcoin move could surprise a lot of people.
#DailyOrbit Watching Ethereum mainnet Gas prices stuck daily at the 1 Gwei floor, and ETH shifting from deflation to nearly 1% annual inflation, Ethereum developers have recently become anxious and proposed the highly controversial EIP-8361. The core content is particularly bizarre: they plan to forcibly burn a portion of the staking block rewards given to validators, attempting to use administrative orders to forcibly pull Ethereum back into deflation.
Once this proposal came out, the entire community exploded. Honestly, this move is a classic case of robbing Peter to pay Paul. The fundamental reason Ethereum slid into inflation is that Layer 2 networks are freeloading on Layer 1's consensus security with extremely low Blob rent, and the mainnet lacks real high-frequency transactions to trigger EIP-1559 burning. Now, instead of figuring out how to make Layer 2 generate more profits, they turn around and cut the legitimate earnings of loyal staking nodes, which looks really bad.
What's worse, forcibly cutting validator rewards will shake Ethereum's most fundamental decentralized security foundation. Once staking yields are cut, many institutions and independent validators will find it unprofitable and choose to unstake and withdraw. Sacrificing the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of validators just to superficially achieve attractive deflation data is completely counterproductive.
The value of a token has never been supported by forcibly creating deflation through administrative means; the true moat is always the genuine prosperity of the underlying ecosystem. If Ethereum cannot resolve the deadlock over profit sharing between L1 and L2, no matter how much they tinker with staking rewards, it will only be self-deception. After $SOL broke through $108.12, it reached a technical extreme of overheating. The core conflict lies in the game between the deflation votes of SGP-2 and SGP-3 being realized and the profit-taking at high levels.
After a step-up from $91.52 to $108.12, EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 show a bullish alignment, indicating that the short-term trend is dominated by buying. Meanwhile, RSI6 reached 89.49, and the J value of KDJ rose to 98.68. The high-level indicator stagnation means position simulations have entered an extremely sensitive zone. The MACD DIF line at 2.31 is above the DEA line at 1.84, and the expanding histogram confirms that upward momentum has not yet faded, but the overbought indicators suppress the safety margin for chasing highs.
The priority driving this round of price restructuring is, in order: deflation governance expectations, chip lock-up, and technical momentum. SGP-2 plans to increase the deflation rate from 15% to 30%, and SGP-3 will raise the burn amount from 650 tokens to a maximum of 9,000 tokens. If both proposals achieve a two-thirds absolute majority, supply contraction will directly alter the inflation curve and increase risk appetite. Conversely, if the vote fails, the premium positions priced for deflation will quickly exit.
The bullish scenario is based on the premise that the deflation proposals pass smoothly after epoch 1023 ends. If funds continue to hold the $105 level after the positive news is realized, and the histogram continues to expand, the overbought indicators’ high-level stagnation will be digested through sideways consolidation, pushing the price to open new upside space. The signal that this scenario fails is a decline in opening volume and a break below EMA5 support.
The bearish scenario is triggered by the governance proposals failing to reach a two-thirds vote or profit-taking after the positive news is realized. Once the price breaks below $105, RSI6 will turn down from 89.49, leaving the stagnation zone, and concentrated profit-taking by bulls may cause a rapid phased pullback. The price will test the $91.52 initial support line. If a volume-backed stop in the pullback occurs and $108 is quickly reclaimed, the bearish scenario fails.
The entire trading desk’s failure boundary lies at $91.52. If the price breaks below $91.52 with volume, it indicates that the bullish structure built by the stepwise rise is completely destroyed, and the risk premium brought by the deflation narrative is fully erased.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus on whether the actual vote count after epoch 1023 ends meets the two-thirds absolute majority, the turnover efficiency of the $105 support line, and how RSI6 corrects in the extreme zone.
#Revolut推出欧元稳定币EURR #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款The real core of tonight's market is that both BTC and US stocks are rising, but the money behind them is not the same.
BTC is currently around 79,600 U, with a net inflow of $232 million into the US spot ETF on August 26, marking the 8th consecutive day of inflows; the 81,000-86,000 range remains a key resistance zone. (ChainCatcher)
On the US stock side, after Nvidia's better-than-expected performance, the Nasdaq opened +0.87%, the S&P +0.45%, and AI trading is heating up again; however, the 10Y US Treasury yield remains at 4.67%, the DXY is about 99.19, and PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, so interest rate pressure has not disappeared. (Reuters)
My judgment: BTC relies on ETF funds, US stocks rely on AI profits. As long as BTC holds at 78,000 and ETFs keep flowing in, 80,000 looks more like a consolidation; for US stocks, it depends on whether long-term bonds can come down, otherwise, no matter how strong AI is, profits only hedge valuation pressure.比特币已经彻底告别过去完全由圈内散户、矿圈主导的旧周期，现货ETF的落地，把华尔街机构真正带进市场。如今的$BTC ，同时运行着两套完全不一样的逻辑：一套是大周期的机构配置逻辑，托住市场底部；另一套是链上巨鲸、合约杠杆、短期情绪博弈逻辑，制造剧烈的来回震荡。很多人看行情感到矛盾，就是因为混淆了这两套体系，拿长线逻辑去看待短期波动，或是用短线盘面去否定大周期方向。 从大周期维度看，ETF带来的增量资金，是本轮行情最坚实的底座。机构资金不是短线炒币，更多是资产组合配置，会在回调阶段持续进行分批布局。即便行情冲高回落，只要没有出现持续性大规模流出，大周期上行的基础就不会轻易被破坏。但机构进场不等于只涨不跌，机构买入也会做止盈，到关键压力区间，同样会出现集中卖出，这也是8万关口反复承压的重要原因。 链上巨鲸，是短期行情最大的变数。一部分早期持仓大户持有成本极低，价格每向上抬升一个台阶，就会出现筹码向交易所迁移的现象。每当价格靠近关键压力，巨鲸集中兑现，就会形成无形抛压，制造假突破之后快速回落。巨鲸不会逆转四年减半带来的大趋势，但完全可以主导几周乃至一两个月的震荡节奏。我们经常看到，明明ETF还Last night actually completed a very valuable stress test: PCE was hotter than expected, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to about 40%, but Crypto was not crushed.
Then Nvidia's earnings confirmed that AI Capex remains very strong, with ETH and SOL actually starting to outperform BTC.
US July PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%, month-on-month +0.2%; core PCE year-on-year remained at 3.3%.
After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from about 36% to about 40%.
Q2 GDP remained at 1.5%, but consumption and private demand were revised upward.
This was originally a negative combination for Crypto, but the market reaction was clearly more resilient than expected.
US stocks closed with only small declines: Dow -0.21%, S&P 500 -0.02%, Nasdaq -0.08%. Then Nvidia announced $96.2 billion in revenue, $89 billion from data centers, up 117% year-on-year, with next quarter revenue guidance of $108 billion; after-hours initially fell then rose about 4%, indicating that the peak of AI capital expenditure has not yet been confirmed.Brief summary:
Current BTC assessment: 🟡 High-level oscillation with a bullish bias, but risks are clearly rising; no top formation judged yet.
Three current positives:
The 78K area is temporarily holding, trend structure remains intact.
Open Interest (OI) has not surged wildly, so it’s not a leveraged long squeeze for now.
ETF still shows net inflows, institutions have not confirmed withdrawal.
Three risks:
ETF single-day inflows dropped sharply from +$300 million to near zero; spot incremental funds have clearly slowed.
Whales have started profit-taking, BTC inflows to exchanges are increasing.
Macro environment turns hawkish, easing expectations challenged; Jackson Hole remains a major test.
So my current inclination:
45%: After consolidation, continue to break through.
40%: First dip to 77K or even 75K, then rise.
15%: 81.27K is already a phase top.
In one sentence:
The trend is not broken yet, but it has entered a high-level supply-demand showdown zone. Do not chase the rally now; focus on whether 77–78K can hold. A renewed break above 81.3K with ETF strong inflows resuming would be a clearer confirmation of continued upward movement. Storage chips and cryptocurrencies are not directly causally related; they share a macro liquidity factor. Institutional quant funds classify both into a high Beta risk asset pool, often showing synchronized rises and falls, but each has independent fundamental drivers.
1. NVDA (NVIDIA)
Trading volume: On earnings report days, single-day trading reaches 50-60 million shares, with transaction amounts in the tens of billions of USD, leading liquidity in the sector.
Price performance: Surges significantly on earnings beats; pulls back with the tech sector during liquidity tightening phases.
Core logic: AI computing power driven by real orders, a sector bellwether; NVDA strength boosts overall market tech risk appetite, indirectly benefiting crypto; when institutions reduce portfolio exposure, NVDA is prioritized for trimming, dragging down risk asset sentiment.
2. SNDK (SanDisk)
Trading volume: During volatile phases, 8-14 million shares traded, transaction amounts 8-20 billion USD, with clear volume spikes at resistance levels.
Price performance: A storage cycle trading target, oscillates at highs, profit-taking concentrated after rallies, with large pullbacks.
Core logic: Trades NAND flash memory cycles; prices hitting prior dense trading zones trigger institutional cycle traders to take profits and exit; once storage price expectations diverge, capital flows in and out rapidly.
3. SKHYNIX (SK Hynix)
Trading volume: ADR US stock trades tens of millions of shares; local Korean stock volume is even larger, with high retail participation.
Price performance: Leader in HBM high-bandwidth memory, benefiting from AI computing power; also follows storage cycles with volatile swings.
Core logic: Tight HBM supply is the core positive; but with cross-market Korean stock + ADR, US market open triggers US capital rebalancing impacting ADR prices, often transmitting overnight US crypto and tech sentiment to SK Hynix.
4. MU (Micron Technology)
Trading volume: Trades 4-5 million shares, transaction amount around 4 billion USD, a core storage sector stock.
Price performance: A DRAM cycle stock, strong cyclical stock with huge sentiment elasticity; pullbacks are also sharp when risk appetite declines.
Core logic: Trades storage chip price cycles; when overall market risk appetite contracts, cyclical growth stocks are heavily sold by institutions.
5. SPCX
Trading volume: ETF-type target, volume follows chip sector capital inflows and outflows.
Price performance: Passively reflects semiconductor sector overall performance, with less volatility than individual stocks.
Core logic: Industry Beta tool, does not generate independent trends; rises with sector inflows, falls with outflows.
III. Complete summary of cross-asset linkage (BTC/ETH rally followed by collective US stock sell-off logic)
Rising phase (Asia-Europe session): Liquidity is weak, small amounts of capital push BTC and ETH higher, driving altcoin sentiment; meanwhile AI storage chip futures slightly follow, acting as a risk appetite preview.
US market open window: Wall Street institutions perform unified portfolio rebalancing.
Crypto side: BTC at 80,000, ETH at 2,550 resistance levels, concentrated unlocking and profit-taking; derivative long positions cascade liquidations;
US stock side: NVDA, SNDK, SKHYNIX, MU and other cyclical growth stocks simultaneously take profits and reduce exposure; SPCX follows sector decline.
Target differentiation characteristics
Mainstream (BTC/ETH): Pullback but stable base;
Narrative coins (SOL/ZEC/ENA): Larger pullbacks than mainstream but supported by narratives, relatively more resistant than MEME;
MEME / small caps (TRUMP/CHIP/CAP): Rapid liquidity depletion, largest drawdowns;
US chip stocks: NVDA driven by AI fundamentals; SNDK/SKHYNIX/MU trade storage cycles, share risk sentiment with crypto but price moves determined by chip supply and demand.
Key observation indicators: US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, BTC-ETF capital flows, chip stock trading volume, altcoin turnover rate.
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $BTC is approaching 80,800, $ETH stands above 2,550, but what is truly being cleansed is not the directional judgment, but the margin for error in high leverage.
This market move is not a one-sided emotional outburst, but a typical "short squeeze spiral"—price pushes up triggering forced liquidation of short positions, liquidations passively buy in further driving up the price, creating a loop that accelerates itself upward. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $228 million, with over 110,000 people wiped out, primarily those holding high-leverage short positions at elevated levels.
Meanwhile, ETH funding rates have surged to 0.01%, the highest level since August 2025. This means the cost of holding long positions is rapidly accumulating—the stronger the market momentum, the more asymmetric the holding costs between longs and shorts, tipping the balance.
Short-term spikes, pulse-like price pumps, and frequent large order placements and cancellations are typical signs that the market has entered "hunt mode." Key levels are repeatedly tested, and liquidation lines become natural liquidity magnets. In this structure, position sizing is more important than directional calls—getting the direction right but overleveraging can still lead to death by retracement.
Lowering leverage and leaving room for error is more meaningful than guessing where the top is. The market can restart, but blown positions cannot. Survival is the prerequisite to discussing what comes next. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 1. BTC (Bitcoin)
Trading Volume: During the surge phase, the 24h total spot + derivatives turnover surged to 60-70 billion USD; on the day of the US stock market's sharp opening drop, trading volume further expanded, with heavy selling pressure, and spot ETF funds shifted from net inflow to slight net outflow.
Price Performance: The Asia-Europe session surged past 80,000, then retreated after the US market opened, pulling back 7-9% intraday from the high.
Core Logic
1) The upward momentum came from short covering squeeze + interest rate cut expectations + optimistic narrative on US crypto regulatory bills, with low liquidity in Asia-Europe session completing a pulse surge;
2) 80,000 is a strong resistance zone with a large amount of break-even positions and ETF institutional profit-taking piled up;
3) US market opening liquidity expanded, US Treasury yields rebounded, risk assets were repriced uniformly, high-level long positions were liquidated in a chain reaction, leading to volume-driven decline.
4) BTC is the market-wide risk anchor; other altcoin trends are highly dependent on BTC's overall environment.
2. ETH (Ethereum)
Trading Volume: Surged to around 2,550 with 24h turnover of 3.2-3.6 billion USD; volume significantly increased during the plunge, and derivatives open interest quickly declined.
Price Performance: After hitting 2,550, it quickly pulled back 8-11%, with a larger correction than BTC.
Core Logic
1) The 2,400-2,550 range holds a large amount of DeFi staked users' historical trapped positions, with stronger break-even selling pressure than BTC;
2) DeFi ecosystem funds flow in and out with the overall market; when the market turns bearish, DeFi-related selling pressure is concentrated;
3) ETH has higher correlation with the Nasdaq; it shows greater correction elasticity when US stock risk appetite declines.
3. SOL (Solana)
Trading Volume: During the surge phase, 24h turnover was 1.1-1.7 billion USD; open interest rose significantly; among altcoins, trading activity was second only to ETH.
Price Performance: This rebound outperformed BTC, but after the market turned bearish, the pullback was larger than BTC/ETH.
Core Logic
1) The Solana ecosystem hosts many MEME coins (including TRUMP, etc.); funds flow in during good market conditions and quickly exit when the market weakens;
2) High Beta altcoin with a high proportion of leveraged positions; stop-loss cascades are stronger during market sell-offs.
4. TRUMP (MEME Coin)
Trading Volume: At the emotional peak, 24h turnover reached about 300 million USD with extremely high turnover rate; volume quickly shrank after rumors were dispelled.
Price Performance: Weekly high +75%; after rumors were disproved and project team cashed out, it sharply pulled back with huge volatility.
Core Logic: Purely narrative-driven MEME, pumped by rumors of "Trump crypto policy"; no fundamental support, whales sell during the rise; volume highly dependent on news heat, liquidity dries up quickly as news fades.
5. ENA (Ethena)
Trading Volume: 24h turnover 200-260 million USD; volume continuously increased during the rebound phase; a strong altcoin in this round with high capital attention.
Price Performance: Weekly high +85%; relatively resistant during market plunge, with smaller pullback than MEME coins.
Core Logic: Stablecoin protocol narrative combined with large financing and public bullish views from influential figures; supported by real protocol revenue, not purely emotional MEME; still follows overall market risk appetite and cannot stand alone during systemic market downturns.
6. ZEC (Zcash)
Trading Volume: 24h turnover 600-800 million USD; volume significantly expanded during Grayscale ETF rumor phase.
Price Performance: Driven by privacy narrative, it rebounded sharply earlier but showed volume-driven decline during market pullback.
Core Logic: Grayscale submitted ZEC ETF amendment documents, fueling privacy coin speculation; after positive expectations were priced in, market sell-off triggered profit-taking; ETF is only at document submission stage, not finalized, and expectation disproof brought selling pressure.
7. CHIP, CAP
Trading Volume: Small market cap narrative coins with overall volume far below mainstream coins; liquidity thin with clear pulse market characteristics.
Price Performance: Followed AI / computing power narratives to surge briefly during market uptrend; large pullbacks when market turns bearish.
Core Logic: AI on-chain concept speculation with high concentration of holdings; small capital can drive price up, but lacks support during declines, causing volatile swings.
Summary of Crypto Token Commonalities:
BTC and ETH determine the market bottom; SOL, ZEC, ENA are main narrative coins; TRUMP, CHIP, CAP are sentiment-driven small coins.
During uptrends: low liquidity in Asia-Europe session pushes prices up; during downtrends: US market opening liquidity releases pressure, resistance zone holdings loosen + leveraged positions liquidate in chain, volume expands, completing rapid pullbacks.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 BTC surged from 64,000 to 81,000 and then dropped back to 79,000. Are you dizzy from this roller coaster?
I watched the on-chain data all night, and the more I look, the less I can sleep.
Whales are frantically buying. Addresses holding over ten thousand coins have pushed to a 6-month high, consuming $1.5 billion in one month. What about retail investors? The number of wallets is shrinking. Every bottom follows this broken script: big players take the profits, retail investors cut losses and run.
More excitingly — ancient wallets dormant for 10 to 15 years suddenly woke up and transferred out 553 BTC. One was bought at a cost of $5, now yielding 1,535,911%. Not a mistake, one and a half million times. The coins didn’t enter exchanges, but don’t celebrate too soon; when ancient coins move, historically it usually happens at market cycle tops.
The craziest part is yet to come: leverage is maxed out on both sides. Breaking above $82K liquidated $1.47 billion in short positions; dropping below $74K liquidated $1.4 billion in long positions. No matter which way it goes, it’s a violent market with bloodshed everywhere.
You’re now standing at a crossroads, don’t stand too long.
DYOR. This is not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $BNB Today's trade review:
After the market opened today, I placed a short position on $BTC. Although this trade eventually hit the take profit smoothly, the entry point was actually not ideal. Right after placing the order, I immediately felt some regret because the entry was inside a previous FVG and quite close to the support-resistance flip below. In other words, I was shorting above potential support.
Fortunately, the price still reached the take profit level in the end, but the profit does not prove that the entry was correct.
Then, observing the relative movement of BTC and $ETH, I thought they might form an SMT reversal. After ETH re-entered the 5-minute FVG, I opened a short position, which I am still holding.
Additionally, the previously positioned $GRASS did not show the expected rally in terms of time and price performance, so I chose to exit today. The pre-unlock pump was only a probabilistic assumption; if the market doesn't respond, there's no need to keep holding.SOL Today's Trading Volume, Price Increase, and Specific Judgment on Capital Flow
Market Overview: 24-hour price increase about +7-12%, intraday volatility 11-13%, high beta significantly stronger than BTC and ETH.
• 24-hour total turnover $6.3-6.6 billion; spot about $860 million, contracts $5.4-5.7 billion, contracts account for nearly 85%, showing strong leverage-driven characteristics.
• Open interest remains high at $6.6-7 billion, funding rate positive, bulls dominant; 24-hour mainly short liquidations, short squeezes contribute most of the intraday gains.
I. Upward Drivers
1. Market risk appetite warms up, BTC and ETH oscillate with strength, market starts mainstream altcoin rotation, capital flows out from BTC to SOL;
2. Solana on-chain DeFi and Meme sectors heat up, on-chain existing funds active;
3. Contract side: accumulated short positions stop losses and short squeeze, amplifying the rise, spot buying power weaker than contract breakout.
II. Complete Capital Flow
1. Institutional ETF funds: slight net inflow, no explosive large-scale accumulation, trend-following allocation rather than active large-scale pumping.
2. Crypto circulating rotation funds: profits taken from BTC/ETH flow into SOL; some stablecoins directly enter to long SOL; meanwhile, part of SOL internal funds divert to on-chain Meme small tokens. No large external OTC funds directly entering.
3. Contract leverage funds: short covering buying pushes price up; after surge, large new long positions open, further raising open interest. Leverage is both the upward force and a hidden risk for future correction liquidations.
4. On-chain whales differentiation: long-term staking locked unchanged; swing traders transfer chips to exchanges at highs to realize profits, continuous selling pressure above.
III. Key Price Levels and Risks
• Short-term resistance: $107-110; first support $98; strong support $94-95.
• Characteristics: SOL beta far exceeds BTC and ETH, sharp rises and deeper pullbacks; contract proportion too high, once the market weakens, liquidation drops will be very severe.
IV. Core Conclusion
Today's rise is a combination of market warming altcoin rotation and contract short squeeze resonance. Most volume comes from derivatives, spot increment limited. This is a circulating funds market with strong impulse but highly tied to BTC market. If BTC breaks key support, SOL's correction will be significantly larger than BTC and ETH.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#US Core PCE flat from last month, how will the Jackson Hole speech set the tone?
#Earnings Observer: Nvidia beats expectations, software revenue starts to realize
#BTC surges then falls, options expiry amplifies key level game A company that makes money by "printing dollars" has seen its stock price drop 70%. Circle $CRCL issuer of USDC, the world's second-largest stablecoin, will list on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025 and is known as the "first stablecoin stock." The IPO price was $31, and on its first day it soared 168%, reaching an all-time high of $298 within weeks, with its market cap once surpassing $70 billion. And then? It then fell all the way to $49.90, down 83% from its peak. Now the stock price is about $89.91, with a market cap of about $22.8 billion, down about 70% from the peak. But interestingly, despite a 70% drop in stock price, the company's fundamentals continue to grow. USDC's circulating supply has grown from about $30 billion at listing to $77 billion now, with revenue and profit hitting new highs every quarter. By Q2 2026, it had already achieved profitability. This creates an extremely divided situation: fundamentals are getting better, stock prices are getting cheaper. Is this a misplaced opportunity, or a value trap? Let's break it down and explain everything thoroughly today. 1. What kind of company is Circle really? Many people think Circle is just "the one issuing USDC," but its business model is more interesting than you think. Core business: USDC stablecoin issuance USDC is the world's second-largest stablecoin, with a circulating supply of about $77 billion, second only to Tether's USDT. The logic behind Circle's USDC issuance is simple: users deposit 1 USDC, Circle issues 1 USDC, and then...During the US stock market session, the cryptocurrency concept stock sector continued its upward trend, with the overall sector sentiment being very strong. Multiple stocks experienced significant rallies, fully reflecting the high volatility and high beta characteristics of crypto stocks. Among individual stocks, MSTR rose 12.13%. As a market-recognized Bitcoin leveraged stock, its share price is highly sensitive to Bitcoin price changes and often outperforms spot Bitcoin during market recoveries; trading platform COIN increased by 5.81%, stablecoin issuer CRCL rose 6.58%; SBET gained 7.63%, mining company stock BMNR increased 6.60%; retail brokerage platform HOOD rose 2.49%; small-cap stock PURR surged sharply, with a gain of 20.46%, becoming the sector's top gainer.
This round of sector gains was mainly driven by the recovery in crypto spot prices, a rise in market risk appetite, and continuous capital inflows into crypto-related listed companies. The logic behind the gains varies among different stocks: MSTR benefits from its large Bitcoin holdings on the balance sheet, enjoying asset appreciation from rising coin prices; COIN and CRCL benefit from increased market trading activity, improving platform fee and stablecoin business revenue expectations; mining companies like BMNR directly benefit from mining profit recovery driven by higher coin prices; HOOD more reflects changes in retail user trading sentiment; small-cap stock PURR shows greater volatility, with speculative capital playing a significant role.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Floating profit ratio soars to 75%, nearly 30,000 BTC deposited into exchanges in a single day: What exactly are the veteran holders panicking about before the 80,000 mark?
After BTC surged past $80,000, the whole network was shouting that the bull market had started, but reviewing the on-chain data these past few days has given me chills. The latest Glassnode data shows that the floating profit ratio of short-term holders (STH) has skyrocketed from 26% to 74.9%, and major exchanges have seen a net inflow of nearly 28,000 BTC in a single day.
Translated into plain language, this data means: short-term speculators who bought at low prices in the past month or two, three-quarters of them have made substantial profits, and this group is urgently moving BTC into exchanges. Anyone who has experienced one or two full bull and bear cycles will understand that when short-term funds’ floating profits concentrate and explode, it is often the most dangerous moment with the heaviest profit-taking selling pressure on the market.
Every major correction in a bull market is essentially caused by concentrated profit-taking selling by short-term holders, triggering a long liquidation stampede. Now BTC is stuck stubbornly oscillating just before the psychological $80,000 threshold. If the spot ETF buying outside the market hesitates even slightly or net inflows slow down, these nearly 30,000 BTC of profit-taking chips ready to be dumped can instantly create a deep pit in the market.
This does not mean the bull market is over, but at such an extremely crowded floating profit position, blindly chasing highs and leveraging up is basically putting your neck on the market makers’ knife edge. Be patient and wait for this batch of short-term chips to complete high-level turnover and wash out the impatient long leverage, only then can the market move more healthily.$ETH is showing a clearer bullish structure, with a Golden Cross forming between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. If price holds strongly above the $2,383–$2,495 zone, the next targets could be $2,791 and $3,381. However, losing this zone could send the price back toward $2,150. 🚀📈