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CORE rise = BTCFi narrative + dual staking demand + revenue buyback + TVL recovery + oversold correction. - Hit BTCFi: Satoshi Plus binds BTC hashrate, non-custodial CLTV locks BTC to generate yield, BTCFi 2.0 hype in 2026, Core as the leading BTC L1 attracts capital. - Dual Staking creates demand: BTC stakers wanting high returns from Satoshi must lock CORE proportionally, large holders passively buy and lock coins, reducing circulating supply. - Shift to revenue buyback: 2026 roadmap uses lstBTC/SatPay/loan fees for secondary CORE buybacks, combined with a 3.61% annual block reward reduction, improving inflation expectations. - On-chain synchronization: 30-day TVL +25%, CORE +30%, DEX volume surges, not just a pump. - Oversold Beta: previous high retracement >90%, BTC stabilizing and easing rate hike expectations drive high Beta altcoin recovery. Risks: linear release selling pressure from 81 still exists, buyback unproven, Stacks/Babylon diversion—this is a mid-term rebound, not a cash flow revaluation.1. Overview of Option Expiry At 16:00 Beijing time on August 28, Deribit will see about 81,700 Bitcoin options expire simultaneously, with a notional value of approximately $6.44 billion. Among them, there are 44,639 call options and 37,061 put options, with a put/call ratio of 0.83, indicating an overall bullish bias. The Max Pain point is near $68,000, about $11,000 below the spot price (around $79,000). Call option open interest is highly concentrated at strike prices of $75,000 (notional value about $236 million) and $80,000 (about $157 million). This expiry accounts for nearly 20% of Deribit's total open interest in Bitcoin options. --- 2. Drivers Behind the Rally and Pullback 1. Market makers’ hedging buying exhausted Over the past week, Bitcoin surged from about $62,000 to above $80,000, a 22.9% increase. One core driver was market makers’ gamma hedging — when Bitcoin was near $64,000, market makers sold large volumes of call options with strike prices between $67,000 and $75,000. As the price rose, they were forced to continuously buy Bitcoin to hedge, creating a "mechanical buying" effect. Currently, 68% of call options are deep in-the-money, and the required hedging positions have basically been accumulated, meaning the "engine" driving the price up has stalled. This is the fundamental reason Bitcoin has failed to hold above $80,000 for four consecutive trading days. 2. On-chain long-term holders taking profits CryptoQuant data shows that near $80,000, long-term holders are taking profits significantly more than short-term holders — early large addresses are actively reducing positions around the $80,000 level. The active unwinding by old money has made the previously bullish option structure above heavier. 3. Macro event resonance This option expiry coincides with the second day of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh delivered his first keynote speech. Previously, the US July PCE data was released, and with the September Fed meeting approaching, market sentiment turned cautious. Bitcoin was resisted above $81,200 and then pulled back to about $79,250, with momentum indicators briefly flashing overbought signals. --- 3. The Bull-Bear Battle at the $80,000 Level Gamma risk and the "pinning" effect Options with strike prices within 5% of the spot price have a notional value exceeding $500 million. Market makers dynamically hedge their exposure, which may cause abnormal "pinning" phenomena near the key strike prices of $75,000 and $80,000, or accelerate breakthroughs at these levels. Battle over Max Pain deviation Max Pain at $68,000 is far below the current price, but the market generally believes a sharp drop to that level before expiry is very unlikely — 62% of contracts will expire worthless. The real battleground is in the $75,000–$80,000 range: bulls need to hold or even push prices above strike prices to realize profits, while bears try to suppress prices to make call positions expire "out of the money." $82,000 may be a short-term ceiling Among options expiring on September 4, the $82,000 strike has the largest open interest (about $185 million). This structure yields maximum profit at $82,000 and turns to loss above $84,000. Therefore, $82,000 will form a short-term resistance until the market effectively breaks through $84,000. --- 4. Scenario Analysis Based on option open interest structure and market sentiment, three scenarios may occur around expiry: Scenario Probability Price Range Trigger Condition Base case 55% $78,000–$81,800 Balanced bulls and bears, range-bound oscillation Upside breakout 25% $81,800–$84,500 Effective break above $81,300, triggering short squeeze Downside pullback 20% $75,000–$77,000 Break below $78,000, triggering a chain reaction of long liquidations Summary: The core contradiction of this $6.4 billion option expiry lies in the upper pressure formed by the exhaustion of market makers’ hedging buying and on-chain profit-taking, versus the gravitational pull of concentrated call option open interest on the bulls. The $80,000 level is both the "firepower focal point" of option open interest and the critical point of sentiment and chips between bulls and bears. After expiry settlement, short-term hedging demand will fade, and volatility may decline accordingly. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #Revolut launches euro stablecoin EURR Latest data EURR complies with the EU MiCA regulation, initially launched on Ethereum and $POL, with plans to integrate SOL and other blockchains later. Initially open to users in 3 countries, with future coverage across the entire European Economic Area. $BTC 80720, $ETH 2512, SOL $107, the market remains in a high-level consolidation. Market consensus In the past, the stablecoin sector was almost dominated solely by the US dollar. The launch of EURR represents traditional giants entering the euro stablecoin market, broadening the channel for incremental European capital inflows, which is a long-term positive for the industry, but it is difficult to immediately drive the market in the short term. Underlying logic analysis Revolut has over 80 million users. The greatest significance of EURR is not price stimulation but regulatory compliance entry. Eurozone users no longer need to exchange for US dollar stablecoins to participate in on-chain transactions, reducing exchange rate losses. This is a slow variable benefit; capital penetration requires a long cycle and is not an explosive catalyst, so it should not be considered a short-term reason to go long. Personal view (I personally lean towards a gradual return of the bull market; this is only a personal opinion and not investment advice) It is a long-term positive signal for the industry, but there is no need to overinterpret this news. Operations should still follow the original plan, not blindly increase positions because of one industry news, control position size, and patiently hold the trend.$ENA 今天往上涨了一点。我个人认为，它短期可能又要回调了。这个币其实非常的吃市场情绪，倘若市场整体走牛，这个币将会涨的很厉害。反之，估计会一路阴跌。我个人认为，目前市场还是走熊的概率比较大。牛市可能会来，但是来的概率并没有熊市继续的概率大。所以，我目前并不看好$ENA 将来的走势。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。我们可以发现，在它价格上涨时，它的合约持仓量在升高，对应的合约多空比在下降。这就说明，在它上涨的过程中，市场上是有很多资金进去做空的。这在之前的上涨中也有过，后来结果是价格回调了。我们再来看一下长一点时间的数据。我们可以发现，它目前的合约持仓量又到了一个高位，但是目前的合约多空比似乎还没有那么低。这就说明，目前市场做空的资金应该是非常多，但是做空的人数好像没有之前那么多。我认为，可能是目前有一部分人改变了原来的观点，认为现在牛市快回来了。 —————————————————— 总的来说，我认为这个币目前来看还是比较高的。因为我不是很认为市场会牛回，我认为市场牛回的概率只有三成，七成还是熊市延续的概率。我目前的想法 🏦 8 DAYS. $3.16B. INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND IS GETTING INTERESTING BlackRock's reported buying activity across Bitcoin and Ethereum is starting to stand out. According to the figures circulating: $BTC : 27.7K BTC → ~$2.2B $ETH : 385.6K ETH → ~$961M And the notable part is the eight consecutive trading sessions of inflows. The headline number is impressive, but I think the consistency matters even more. Institutional demand isn't showing up exclusively around Bitcoin. Ethereum is getting meaningful attention too. That's important because it could signal a broader shift in how traditional investors are approaching crypto exposure. 🟠 BTC REMAINS THE CORE Bitcoin is still the primary institutional asset in crypto. With billions flowing through spot ETF products, BTC continues to serve as the main gateway for traditional capital entering the digital-asset market. If that demand remains consistent while BTC holds above major support, it could provide a strong foundation for another expansion. But ETF buying doesn't guarantee higher prices. Existing holders can still distribute. Macro conditions can change. And resistance can still reject the market. 🔵 ETH IS THE INTERESTING PART The nearly $1B attributed to Ethereum is what really catches my attention. ETH doesn't need Bitcoin to fall for this to matter. If institutions continue accumulating both assets while ETH maintains stronger relative momentum, we could be looking at the early stages of a broader capital rotation. That would be much more significant than simply another Bitcoin rally. BTC could lead. ETH could accelerate. Then capital could gradually move further down the risk curve. 👀 BUT LET'S KEEP IT IN PERSPECTIVE I wouldn't automatically interpret eight days of ETF inflows as: “BlackRock knows something we don't.” ETF flows represent investor activity through those products, and the underlying BTC or ETH may be acquired by the funds to meet creations and other market activity. $TRUMP TRUMP On-Chain Selling Pressure Unresolved: After Team Addresses Transfer Tokens, the Shorting Window Is Opening On-chain data is often more convincing than any story. Recently, addresses identified as associated with the TRUMP team transferred about 3.837 million TRUMP tokens to centralized exchanges, worth approximately $9.33 million at the time of transfer. Subsequently, these addresses sold about 1.1 million TRUMP tokens through unilateral liquidity sales, receiving around 2.94 million USDC. This series of actions reveals an undeniable fact: team affiliates are reducing their holdings by leveraging market liquidity, while the remaining approximately 2.737 million tokens transferred to the platforms have not yet been confirmed as sold, representing a potential supply pressure hanging like a sword overhead. For traders, the current shorting logic for TRUMP is being reinforced across multiple dimensions. 1. Team Sell-Off Itself Is the Loudest Bearish Signal In the crypto market, token transfers by project teams or associated addresses are usually seen as the most direct fundamental signals. Unlike retail investors, these addresses often have information advantages and cost basis advantages; their sell-offs are not random but based on valuation judgments or liquidity needs. When team addresses actively transfer large amounts of tokens to exchanges and choose to sell via unilateral liquidity, their intent is clear—to liquidate quickly. The significance of unilateral liquidity sales is especially critical. Unlike placing limit sell orders, selling unilaterally into liquidity pools means the seller is willing to accept slippage, prioritizing immediate execution. This method typically appears when there is urgency to clear holdings or lack of confidence in the market outlook. Selling 1.1 million TRUMP tokens for only 2.94 million USDC, at an average price of about $2.67, represents a discount compared to market price, further confirming the seller’s urgency. For shorts, the team’s sell-off provides an almost irrefutable reason to short: insiders are selling, so why should outsiders buy? 2. Remaining Tokens Constitute a "Dam" of Continuous Selling Pressure Current on-chain data shows that out of 3.837 million TRUMP tokens, only 1.1 million have been confirmed sold; the whereabouts of the remaining approximately 2.737 million tokens remain unclear. These tokens have entered centralized platforms, meaning they could be dumped into the market at any time. They are not potential sell orders—they are sell orders already on the sidelines. This "entered but unsold" token structure is extremely unfavorable for price. Buyers, knowing there is a large amount of unsold tokens, tend to wait or lower their bids to avoid becoming the bag holder. This cautious sentiment itself suppresses any price rebound attempts. Once the related addresses continue selling, the market will face real new selling pressure, potentially pushing prices lower. More worrisome is that team sell-offs tend to be continuous. Historical experience shows that once a project starts unloading, it rarely stops immediately after the first sale. Within the next 24 to 48 hours, if these addresses transfer tokens again or continue selling, the shorting logic will be further strengthened. 3. Liquidity Pool Imbalance Amplifies Downward Pressure Selling tokens unilaterally into liquidity pools not only directly increases TRUMP supply on the market but also structurally shocks the liquidity pool of the trading pair. When a large amount of TRUMP is dumped into the pool, the TRUMP quantity in the pool increases while USDC decreases, causing the price to automatically drop. Under this mechanism, price decline is not caused by direct bid-ask competition but passively triggered by pool ratio imbalance. Worse, the price drop in the liquidity pool attracts arbitrageurs to buy TRUMP from the pool and sell it on other markets, transmitting selling pressure to a broader range of trading venues. This chain reaction amplifies the impact of a single sale, requiring buy-side support far exceeding the sale amount to restore price. Given TRUMP’s limited liquidity, any large unilateral sale could trigger a larger-than-expected price drop. This provides shorts with a favorable risk-reward ratio. 4. Market Sentiment and the Negative Feedback Risk of Follow-Up Selling Once the team’s sell-off is widely known, it may trigger follow-up selling by other holders. On-chain monitoring tools and social media spread information rapidly; large holders and short-term traders seeing the team selling are likely to exit early, creating a "sell more as price falls" negative feedback loop. As a meme-heavy token, TRUMP’s price support largely depends on community sentiment and holder confidence. Once consensus on internal sell-off forms, sentiment will deteriorate rapidly, and even "diamond hands" may waver. This emotional collapse often happens faster and more violently than fundamental deterioration. 5. Key On-Chain Indicators to Watch Shorting TRUMP is not without risk; the key is whether subsequent on-chain behavior confirms continued selling pressure. The following signals deserve close attention: Continued Transfers: If related addresses transfer TRUMP to exchanges again, it indicates distribution is ongoing, allowing shorts to hold or even increase positions. Withdrawal of USDC: If the 2.94 million USDC obtained from sales is withdrawn from the platform rather than kept for repurchasing, it shows a firm intent to liquidate, making short-term price support unlikely. Volume and Buy-Side Absorption: If TRUMP’s volume significantly increases under selling pressure and price stabilizes, it means buy-side is absorbing new supply, requiring reassessment of the shorting thesis. But if volume shrinks and price drifts down, it indicates weak buy-side support and a likely continuation of the downtrend. Liquidity Pool Recovery: After unilateral sales, the speed of pool ratio recovery reflects buy-side strength. Slow recovery means continued price pressure. $ETH and BTC repeatedly tested the 80,000 level with wicks, massive volatility on options expiry, and hesitation before Walsh's speech — right at this critical moment, ETH quietly climbed to $2,565 last night, hitting a new high since February, up 27.8% in 7 days, stealing the spotlight from BTC's solo "dance". This isn't following the trend; it's a stealth tower take: while BTC is tied down by macro factors, ETH dismantled the tower itself using real money from ETFs + short covering + supply lock-up. How the stealth tower take happened (four forces): ETF net inflows exceeded $1 billion for 8 consecutive days: spot ETH ETFs attracted over $1 billion in a single week, with about $192 million on 8/27 alone. Institutions treat ETH as a core holding rather than a high-beta fringe asset. When BTC is capped by macro pressures, ETH has independent buying power. Shorts forced to cover: from 8/19, ETH rose from 1,916 to 2,565, triggering a cascade of short liquidations. On 8/27, ETH short liquidations accounted for 74% of the entire network, creating a short squeeze feedback loop pushing itself higher. Circulating supply locked down: over 42 million ETH are staked (over 30%), plus 4.4 million held by Treasury companies. The active float is much thinner than BTC, so small buy volumes cause large swings. BTC distracted, ETH sneaks ahead: BTC is focused on 80,000, 74K, options Max Pain at 68K, and Walsh's speech; ETH only faces a supply zone at 2,530–2,550, lighter resistance, repeatedly testing the psychological 2,500 level while BTC consolidates. Quality of the stealth tower take (don’t get carried away): Real breakout or just testing resistance: 2,530–2,550 is a strong supply zone since February. ETH touched 2,546 on 8/21 and 2,565 on 8/28 but failed to close firmly above on the weekly chart. Currently oscillating between 2,500–2,530 = probing without breaking, mirroring BTC’s failure to break 80,000. Still 49% below all-time high: the previous high of 4,954 is far away. This is just a "phase high + relative strength vs BTC," not a confirmed bull market. ETH/BTC rate needs a weekly close above 0.035 to signal a true rotation start; currently still climbing between 0.0318–0.032. Concerns remain: post-Dencun mainnet burn weakened, L2 gas extraction, whales moved over 10,000 ETH in August. Fundamentals haven’t fully supported the price; this stealth tower take is still a fast in-and-out capital play. Three-tier judgment (watch these lines next): Daily close above 2,550: supply zone consumed, target 2,750→2,900, ETH/BTC uptrend confirmed, rotation narrative solidified. Pullback to 2,480–2,500 and hold sideways: ETH high-level rotation while BTC waits for macro signals, healthy. Break below 2,460 and BTC below 77K: stealth tower take fails, retest 2,300 (previous resistance turned support), bulls’ lifeline at 2,150. BTC is the general waiting for macro orders; ETH is the assassin sneaking the tower while the general is entangled. Assassin’s success ≠ end of war, but after this tower is taken, ETH has lit the lamp for altcoin season first. $ETH The recent signals from the Federal Reserve are indeed worth paying more attention to. Schmidt's statement was very straightforward: the current interest rates may not be sufficient to restrain the economy, inflation is still clearly far from the 2% target, so there is no need for the policy to rush into easing, and further tightening is not ruled out. Looking at the latest data, July's PCE year-on-year is still 3.7%, and core PCE is also at 3.3%, inflation has not truly returned to a level that reassures the Federal Reserve. So now the market needs to rethink a question: Previously, everyone discussed "when will interest rates be cut," now it may be necessary to start discussing "whether rate cuts will come that soon at all." These two expectations seem to differ by only a few words, but for BTC and the US stock market, they represent completely different logics. When rate cut expectations heat up, risk assets easily gain liquidity support; When rate cut expectations cool down, the dollar and interest rate pressures return, and BTC and US stocks naturally become more sensitive. So now I won't FOMO just because $BTC has risen, nor will I panic because of a short-term pullback. The biggest macro risk has never been a single bad data point, but that the story the market originally believed suddenly changes. For now, keep some position, don't fire all your bullets at once. Take action when the market gives opportunities, wait when it doesn't. $BTC Before the Jackson Hole meeting, the Federal Reserve included crypto payment infrastructure on the agenda for the first time. Does this indicate a policy shift? 1) Does the market provide an answer? BTC is fluctuating above the 80,000 mark, up 2.05% in 24 hours, but it had already fallen below 79,000 the previous day. ETH rose slightly, SOL surged 9.57%, showing the market is reacting to short-term liquidity. These price movements do not clearly point to a policy shift but are more of a hedge on sentiment. 2) Where is the real impact? The Treasury is collaborating with the Federal Reserve, possibly reducing the issuance of 30-year U.S. Treasuries, with a higher proportion of short-term debt. This would lower long-term interest rates, theoretically benefiting risk assets. However, this path depends on institutional coordination, has not been officially confirmed, and still needs verification. 3) Both sides need to be considered A positive signal is that declining long-term interest rates may boost global risk appetite, especially benefiting highly leveraged assets. On the downside, if the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates, short-term funds will flow out of risk assets, driving a pullback in crypto assets, with XRP already leading the decline. 4) What answers are we waiting for? Waiting for the Treasury and Federal Reserve to jointly release a debt management framework or for the Federal Reserve to clarify the interest rate path. Current market behavior is more based on expectation games rather than policy implementation. For informational and market scenario analysis only, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.🔥To force chip manufacturing back to the US, Trump might even be ready to put the AI race on hold for now. Eight insiders told Politico that the Trump administration is brewing a new round of large-scale semiconductor tariffs. This time, it's not just chips themselves; laptops, gaming consoles, and data center servers are all targeted. Commerce Secretary Lutnick tends to link "enjoying tariff exemptions" directly with "investing in US chip manufacturing"—if you want to sell goods to the US, you must first build factories in the US. This is not just a tax increase; it's using tariffs to force the supply chain to return. Insiders say the government is considering a phased implementation plan, which may be revised in the coming weeks. But the core direction is clear: to choke semiconductor manufacturing with high tariffs. Export controls only restrict chip raw materials, but if this round of tariffs is implemented, it will be a comprehensive blockade at the finished product level. Tech companies have already warned that this could dash hopes of US dominance in AI, but the government seems to have weighed the options—preferring to fall behind slightly in the AI race in order to first hold chip manufacturing capabilities firmly in hand. Once tariffs are imposed, the cost of the global tech supply chain will rise across the board, affecting AI computing power costs and data center construction costs. In the short term, this puts pressure on the AI hardware sector's prosperity. In the long term, bringing chip manufacturing back to the US is both a challenge and an opportunity for the domestic semiconductor supply chain. This is not a simple escalation of trade friction; the tech cold war has moved from raw materials to finished products.When BTC drops to the price you've been dreaming of, should you buy or not? Many traders have already set a bottom-fishing target price in mind, treating it as their entry signal. Recently, the market has been oscillating and pulling back, and many have finally found their ideal price. But the reality is harsh: when prices reach the preset buying point, the macro environment sharply declines in tandem. US Treasury yields rise, inflation stickiness is rising, market expectations for a rate hike in September have surged, risk assets are collectively under pressure on the eve of Jackson Hole's speech, US growth stocks are simultaneously cutting valuations, and crypto ETFs are even experiencing phased capital outflows. At this moment, everyone faces a very realistic choice: the price has reached your planned bottom-fishing level, but macro conditions have all deteriorated. Do you want to enter and bottom-fish? [Ordinary People's Genuine Intuitive Thoughts] The vast majority of retail investors' first reaction is very direct: the price is in place, so it's time to execute the plan. When the candlestick drops to its repeatedly marked strong support and the RSI enters the oversold zone, technically it looks cheap enough. You might comfort yourself: even if it drops a bit further in the short term, as long as you hold on, time trades for space, and you will definitely break even in the long run. People tend to treat price levels as the primary criterion and support levels as an unbreakable iron bottom, selectively ignoring fundamental changes in the external environment. This is a very common trap in the market: only focus on bottom-fishing candlestick prices, ignore the macro environment, and end up bottom-fishing halfway up the mountain. Just this week, the market has already experienced a real case: BTC fell back to $76,000,$CORE is currently in a bottom consolidation and shakeout phase, with the core conflict centered on the interplay between the rollout progress of non-custodial staking infrastructure and the pressure from token inflation. The market shows typical characteristics of token sedimentation. The non-custodial staking architecture based on the Satoshi Plus consensus, along with the development of the AMP protocol and SatPay payment network, is underway, but market funds are currently concentrated in high-elasticity sectors, resulting in limited sedimented funds on the exchange. The driving factors rank as follows: macro liquidity preference > BTCFi sector capital return > actual demand sedimentation for infrastructure. The underlying technology construction still requires time to materialize, and the secondary market token structure continues to face pressure from token releases. A breakout to the upside requires two preconditions: macro funds must tilt back toward the Bitcoin ecosystem base layer, and SatPay and the AMP protocol must generate substantial new staking demand. If the scale of non-custodial staking expands rapidly and on-exchange floating tokens are cleared, prices will begin valuation repair; if ecosystem application rollout falls short of expectations, the rebound will stall in the dense token accumulation zone above. The trigger for a downside bottoming scenario is: continued digestion of long-term selling pressure, combined with tightening overall market liquidity causing key support levels to fail. At this point, close attention should be paid to the speed of ecosystem capital outflow; if staking participation of Satoshi Plus consensus nodes rises counter to the trend, this downside scenario is immediately invalidated. In the absence of large-scale liquidity inflows, the market is likely to maintain a wide consolidation range in the current interval. The non-custodial staking mechanism provides a buffer for basic selling pressure but cannot independently drive prices out of the bottom range. Key variables to watch over the next 7 days: the dynamic change rate of non-custodial staking volume, net capital inflow performance in the BTCFi sector, and the defensive strength of the current bottom support level. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 ETH's recent trend The medium-term structure is relatively strong, but the short-term has entered a high volatility zone, so you can't just look at the gains. ETH quickly rebounded from the mid-August low, with a single-day increase of over 8% on August 21, then once surged to around $2,566; on August 27, it closed at about $2,522, indicating there is still capital support at high levels. More importantly, the recent rise in ETH is not just driven by retail sentiment: ETF funds have warmed up again, with the US spot ETH ETF net inflow on August 19 reaching about $189 million, a single-day high in a long time. ETH's increase of nearly 30% in the past week shows that capital is clearly starting to spread from BTC to ETH. But I actually think the biggest risk now is chasing the highs. In the short term, $2,550–$2,600 is already a fairly obvious resistance area. If it can break through with volume and hold steady, the next phase has a chance to test $2,800–$3,000. Conversely, if the rally fails, $2,400–$2,450 can be the first observation zone. So my thinking is quite simple: ETH is medium-term bullish, but don’t blindly chase in the short term. Breakouts are strong signals; pullbacks are for support. A true bull market is not just about rising one day, but about holding after the rise. The core change in ETH right now is that capital is starting to pay attention to $ETH again. Next, it depends on whether this capital rotation can continue. The BTCFi race is fiercely contested—can Core DAO truly stand out? ⚠️ Risk Warning: The content is for industry logic discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; participate rationally and control risks strictly. Trillions in dormant BTC assets are seeking yield channels, and BTCFi has become the core theme of this bull market. The field is crowded with contenders: Babylon, STX, Merlin, and Core DAO each follow different paths. Many community members ask: amid intense competition, does Core have a chance to break through? First, understand the landscape: it’s unlikely that a single giant will dominate the BTCFi track; the future will likely be segmented, with different solutions serving different capital needs. Babylon positions itself as a pure BTC re-staking tool with a simple model—users can rent out native BTC to earn network security yields without needing additional tokens, favored by minimalistic Bitcoin holders. However, its downside is clear: it’s just an infrastructure protocol without an independent smart contract public chain, unable to support lending, payments, RWA, and other complete ecosystems, inherently limiting its potential. Stacks, as a veteran Bitcoin L2, has a solid institutional foundation. Staking STX to earn BTC yields forms a stable narrative. But a fatal bottleneck is its incompatibility with EVM; its unique programming language raises developer barriers, making it hard to capture Ethereum’s vast DeFi overflow capital. Its token has no hard cap, leading to long-term inflation that suppresses its valuation ceiling. Merlin Chain focuses on ZK-Rollup Bitcoin Layer 2, supports EVM, and attracts large retail traffic through BRC20 and inscriptions. But its ecosystem heavily depends on hype cycles, lacks a native non-custodial BTC staking system, and most assets rely on cross-chain wrapping, making it hard to appeal to large Bitcoin institutional funds seeking extreme security. In contrast, Core DAO follows an independent L1 public chain route, possessing a unique differentiated moat in the track. Based on Satoshi Plus consensus, it leverages Bitcoin’s hash power network-wide to secure the network while fully supporting EVM, allowing all Ethereum DeFi apps to migrate and deploy at low cost. Unlike various wrapped BTC solutions, Core supports native Bitcoin mainnet time-locked staking, with users holding their private keys, no cross-chain wrapping or asset transfer needed, meeting the core security demands of conservative BTC whales. With a dual staking mechanism, pairing BTC with CORE for higher-tier yields, the b14g network has been widely implemented, continuously driving long-term CORE lock-up demand. The long-term roadmap is clear: staking infrastructure, SatPay crypto payments, DeFi, and RWA coordinated development aiming to build a complete BTCFi ecosystem loop; the token supply approaches 2.1 billion with an inflation end point, aligning with Bitcoin’s deflationary narrative. Behind the opportunities lie unavoidable risks. The 81-year continuous block reward release means long-term inflation pressure is the biggest mid-to-long-term constraint; high-tier dual staking requires holding both BTC and CORE, posing a participation barrier for pure BTC holders. SatPay’s full public beta, ecosystem fee revenue buybacks, and other core narratives are still in the expectation phase; currently, the number of blockbuster ecosystem apps is insufficient, and TVL growth speed remains to be proven. For Core to stand out amid fierce competition, four key inflection signals matter: continuous new highs in native BTC staked on b14g; steady user growth after SatPay’s official launch; normalized fee buyback mechanisms to hedge inflation; and attracting a large influx of external DeFi and RWA projects. In the long run, the track’s demand naturally segments: capital seeking simple staking yields chooses Babylon; inscription and short-term speculative capital prefers Merlin; native Bitcoin developers choose Stacks. Core targets incremental capital that values BTC asset security while needing a complete EVM smart contract ecosystem. If heavyweight products launch as scheduled and cash flow flywheels connect, Core is poised to solidify its position as the leading independent L1 BTCFi, achieving relative breakout; if ecosystem rollouts continue to delay, competition will persist long-term, making it hard to break out with a major independent rally. Competition in this track has never been about short-term hype; the ultimate outcome depends on who first converts grand narratives into sustained on-chain demand. Who do you think among the many BTCFi projects is most likely to become the ultimate winner? Share your thoughts in the comments.Bitcoin's repeated movements near the $80,000 mark have made many feel like they've been riding a short roller coaster. This candlestick may look a bit intimidating, but what truly affects the market's rhythm right now may not be the concentrated selling in the spot market, but rather a batch of options contracts about to expire that are amplifying the game near the threshold. On August 28, about 81,700 Bitcoin options expired, with a nominal value close to $6.4 billion. It is worth noting that the $80,000 mark is exactly where funds are concentrated. The closer the price gets to here, the more frequent market makers tend to buy and sell to adjust their own risk exposure, naturally amplifying volatility. This is why chasing rallies in the past two days tends to get stuck for a short time, while short chases may not be easy to profit. Both bulls and bears have been especially cautious before settlement. Rather than getting caught up in the short-term tug-of-war over the past two days, it's better to focus on market performance after settlement. If Bitcoin can quickly recover $80,000 after option expiration, then this surge and pullback feels more like a technical turmoil at the position level, without disrupting the trend structure. Conversely, if the price fails to regain this level for several consecutive hours, then the support near $77,500 is worth careful observation, as it will be an important reference for judging the market's true strength. Option expiration often disrupts candlestick patterns, which has been common in past markets. But whether the market will ultimately be strong or weak depends on whether real money is willing to continue after the excitement ends. Short-term noise will eventually pass, and the real decision-maker will pass #BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies key level battle. After the short squeeze subsides: Can ETF funds support Bitcoin's $80,000 level? $BTC staged a classic long-short battle in the last week of August. The price once broke through the key $80,000 integer level, reaching above $81,000 at its peak, but then quickly retreated. As of the Asian session on August 28, BTC hovered around $79,000, re-entering the contest for the critical level. The nature of this rebound is being revealed by increasing data. Research from K33 Research shows that this rally featured the largest single-day short squeeze since their statistics began, with futures open interest rapidly declining after the price spike. This indicates that a key driver of the prior gains was short covering rather than new long positions. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92 billion last week, injecting valuable incremental capital into the market. However, the rapid price rise also triggered profit-taking intentions among holders, increasing selling pressure. More urgently, approximately $6.44 billion worth of BTC options will expire on August 28, with many positions clustered between $75,000 and $80,000, likely amplifying short-term volatility. The market stands at a delicate crossroads: the fuel from the short squeeze is running out, and whether ETF funds can take over the baton to absorb high-level selling will determine if this rebound marks the start of a trend recovery or just another phase rebound trap. 1. Short Squeeze: The Truth Behind the Sharp Rise Data from K33 Research reveals an unsurprising fact: Bitcoin's rapid rise from around $75,000 to $81,000 was largely driven by short covering. A short squeeze occurs when the price breaks through key resistance levels, forcing many shorts to close positions and stop losses, creating forced buying that further pushes prices up, forming a self-reinforcing upward cycle. This type of rise is characterized by speed and magnitude but poor sustainability because it relies not on new long capital entering but on passive covering of existing short positions. Once short positions are cleared, buying quickly dries up. K33 data shows futures open interest dropped significantly after the price spike, confirming the "shorts surrendering and position clearing" process. In other words, Bitcoin's sharp surge past $80,000 was more like a "short squeeze" than confirmation of a long-term bullish trend. When short covering fades, price support must come from another source: genuine incremental buying. 2. $ETH Funds: Incremental Inflows Are Coming, But Are They Enough? Simultaneously with the short squeeze, the US spot BTC ETF recorded about $1.92 billion in net inflows last week. This is a positive signal that traditional market funds are entering Bitcoin through compliant channels, providing real demand support for the price. However, while $1.92 billion is considerable, it must be cautiously evaluated against Bitcoin's massive market cap. Bitcoin's total market cap is about $1.6 trillion, with daily spot trading volume between $30 billion and $50 billion. ETF weekly inflows of $1.92 billion translate to less than $300 million daily on average, insufficient alone to sustain continuous price rises. More importantly, ETF inflows tend to be volatile. Last week's concentrated inflow may have been driven by improved macro expectations around the Jackson Hole meeting and could include some institutional pre-positioning before the breakout. Whether similar scale inflows continue this week is a major unknown. If ETF buying slows while profit-taking and trapped position selling persist, prices will fall back into a passive state. Additionally, rapid price increases themselves activate profit-taking. On-chain data shows that during BTC's break above $80,000, short-term holders (holding less than 155 days) increased on-chain turnover significantly, with some funds that built positions between $70,000 and $75,000 choosing to cash out near $80,000. This "sell more as price rises" behavior creates a subtle balance with short covering buying, but once short covering ends, selling will dominate. 3. Concentrated Options Expiry: $6.44 Billion Volatility Amplifier On August 28, about $6.44 billion worth of BTC options will expire. This is a significant event risk. Options expiry impacts the underlying asset price mainly through two mechanisms. First, market makers adjust hedging. Before expiry, market makers must adjust spot or futures positions based on the Delta of their holdings. When many options cluster in a specific price range (e.g., $75,000–$80,000), market makers' hedging creates a "gamma squeeze" effect, amplifying price volatility within that range. Second, post-expiry position redistribution. Investors closing or rolling positions can cause sudden shifts in market directional exposure. Among the $6.44 billion expiring, many positions are concentrated between $75,000 and $80,000. This means market makers' hedging is most intense in this range. If the price stays within this range before expiry, the market may experience violent oscillations; if it breaks out, it could trigger further trend volatility. For Bitcoin, options expiry days often coincide with increased short-term volatility. Against the backdrop of a weakening short squeeze effect, volatility triggered by options expiry is more likely to intensify price swings rather than provide clear directional guidance. ETF FLOWS ARE BROADENING AND THAT'S THE IMPORTANT PART $BTC and $ETH ETFs have now extended their inflow streak to six consecutive sessions, with roughly $453M added on Monday. BTC ETF assets are also approaching the $100B milestone, reportedly sitting around $98.56B. But the bigger story isn't simply the size of the number. It's the consistency of the demand. After months of weaker ETF flows, the return of sustained inflows is becoming an increasingly important signal for the market. Recent reporting also highlighted a sharp recovery in Bitcoin ETF demand, with roughly $1.92B of inflows recorded over the prior week. 🟠 BTC — INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND IS BACK IN FOCUS Bitcoin remains the main liquidity anchor. If ETF demand continues while BTC holds above the $80K area, buyers may gradually gain more confidence that the recent recovery has real support behind it. The next challenge is whether BTC can turn the current momentum into a sustained breakout rather than another rejection. 🔵 ETH — THE ROTATION MATTERS Ethereum's participation is equally important. When BTC and ETH ETFs are both attracting capital, it suggests institutional interest isn't limited to a single crypto asset. And if that eventually spreads into other crypto-linked products, it could be an early sign of broader risk appetite returning to the market. That's the part I'm watching closely. 👀 THE BIGGER PICTURE A six-session inflow streak doesn't guarantee that prices will continue higher. But it does change the conversation. Instead of asking whether institutional demand has disappeared, we're now asking how far this renewed demand can spread. BTC leads. ETH is participating. Other assets are waiting for confirmation. If the inflows persist and price continues absorbing supply around major resistance, the current consolidation could become the foundation for another expansion. $100B in BTC ETF assets is approaching. The more important milestone may be whether this institutional demand keeps growing after the headline fades. Follow the flows. Then let price confirm the story.Storm is coming tonight The market has set the price but not the direction yet. $BTC is lurking around $80,000, $ETH hovering near $2,500 — this is not hesitation, it's gathering strength. Behind every sideways candlestick, both bulls and bears are reevaluating the same questions: When will liquidity truly turn? Will incremental funds still come? The answers to these two questions lie in two places. In the words of Jackson Hole. The global central bank annual meeting is never for announcing policies but for guiding expectations. The market is not waiting for the action of "rate cuts" itself — rate cuts have long been priced in — but for the Fed's latest economic narrative. If Powell says "inflation is under control, employment is under pressure," that signals a dovish soft landing; the dollar will weaken, yields will collapse, and the valuation ceiling for risk assets will be lifted overall. Conversely, if the wording leans toward "inflation remains sticky," the market will face another expectation adjustment, and consolidation will turn into a deeper pullback. So, the market is not waiting for a result but for a narrative. In the ETF fund flow statements. In the past week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, Ethereum $697 million — this data alone is enough to excite. But the market is a machine of expectations; it does not pay for "what has already happened," only prices "what is about to happen." A real breakthrough requires the inflow trend itself to become a positive feedback loop: rising prices attract funds, funds push prices higher, and the cycle repeats. The $79,000 to $82,000 barrier is both a technical chip concentration zone and a litmus test of market confidence — a breakout with volume means the cycle is established; repeated resistance means the story cannot continue. On a deeper level, the market is actually waiting for an answer. In the past two years, the crypto market has been caught between two narratives: one is the "digital gold" safe-haven story, the other is the "risk asset" beta story. When liquidity tightens, it behaves as a risk asset, falling harder than anyone else; when liquidity loosens, it starts telling the gold story again. At this moment, as the Fed reaches a policy inflection point, the market needs this "dual identity" to give a clear self-definition. Ultimately, the two giants are not waiting for a price breakout but for identity confirmation. Before that, there is only consolidation. Consolidation does not mean nothing is happening; it means everyone is recalibrating their expectations. Hunters do not reveal their position before the prey appears. Wait for it. The wind has already started. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ $SNDK Demand for crypto spot ETFs is continuously heating up, with institutional funds still flowing in steadily. This signal deserves close attention. Data as of 6 AM on August 26 shows a total net inflow of $516 million across multiple spot ETFs including $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and XRP: • BTC: +$276.65 million • ETH: +$198.89 million • XRP: +$31.05 million • SOL: +$10.35 million We can clearly see capital differentiation, with the vast majority of new inflows concentrated in the two leading giants, BTC and ETH, which together account for nearly 90% of the net inflow. In contrast, although SOL and XRP recorded inflows, their capital scale is not comparable; institutions still prioritize top-tier assets with stronger liquidity and compliance. The off-exchange financing funds for ETFs differ in logic from on-exchange contract trading funds, leaning towards medium- to long-term positioning. The continuous net inflow indicates that large external funds have not exited due to short-term volatility and are still buying on dips. Objectively speaking: single-day inflows only represent sentiment for that day and cannot be directly equated with a mindless one-sided market rise. Institutional entry will also have profit-taking moments. The key going forward is to track the sustainability of funds over consecutive days. If inflows form a continuous trend, that is a stronger bullish confirmation. In the short term, the market is still affected by contract leverage and large whale orders. ETFs are an important fundamental reference and should not be the sole basis for opening positions #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ OKX, worth long-term attention? Many people know OKX because it is an exchange. But if you only understand it as a "platform for buying and selling cryptocurrencies," you might underestimate its true value. What I focus on more is whether OKX can grow from an exchange into a key participant in the global digital asset infrastructure. Let's look at the data first. The latest official 46th proof of reserves from OKX shows the platform's main asset reserves are about $22.96 billion, and it continuously uses the proof of reserves mechanism to enhance asset transparency. It is important to emphasize that proof of reserves is a tool for asset transparency and does not equal bank deposit insurance. OKX proof of reserves. From a product perspective, OKX has already formed a relatively complete product system including spot, futures, options, quantitative tools, trading bots, Web3 wallets, DEX, and more. So my evaluation of OKX itself is: Overall competitiveness: 8.5/10. Its real advantage is not just trading but connecting centralized trading with the Web3 ecosystem. ⸻ What truly deserves attention is compliance. The crypto industry is likely to enter a stricter regulatory era in the future. In 2025, OKX's European entity obtained the MiCA license from the Malta Financial Services Authority and expanded to the European Economic Area through the passport mechanism. This means OKX is proactively entering a more standardized regulatory system. Future exchange competition may no longer be just about fees and the number of coins but about: Compliance capability + liquidity + technology + user scale + global licenses. This may determine who can survive the next industry cycle. ⸻ Looking again at OKB If OKX is the ecosystem, then OKB is the core asset worth studying independently. In 2025, OKX made significant adjustments to the OKB economic model. One-time burn: 65,256,712.097 OKB Afterwards, the total supply is fixed at: 21 million At the same time, minting and burning functions are removed. This means OKB is gradually shifting from the past "buyback and burn logic" to: Fixed supply + ecological demand. But we must stay clear-headed here: Scarcity does not necessarily mean price increase. 21 million is only the supply side. What truly determines value is demand. What should really be observed in the future: Is the OKX user base growing? Is trading volume increasing? Are institutional funds entering? Is the Web3 wallet expanding? Is the X Layer forming a real ecosystem? Is the actual usage of OKB increasing? These data are much more important than simply looking at the price. ⸻ X Layer may be a key future variable OKB is currently not just an exchange platform token. According to OKX's official economic model, OKB serves as the native token and Gas asset of the X Layer. If the X Layer scales in the future: On-chain user growth → increased transactions → increased Gas demand → increased OKB usage demand Then OKB's logic may gradually shift from a simple "platform token" to an exchange ecosystem + public chain infrastructure asset. Of course, the premise is that the X Layer must generate real user and transaction demand. This is also one of the most important data points to track in the future. ⸻ My judgment I will not say: "OKX will definitely rise, OKB will definitely rise." Such statements are meaningless. What I truly care about is whether OKX can form in the next 5–10 years: Exchange + compliant financial platform + Web3 wallet + public chain + institutional business + token ecosystem If it can achieve this, then its value can no longer be simply understood as an "exchange." And what is truly worth studying about OKB is not the number "21 million." But: With a fixed supply of 21 million, how large an ecological demand will it ultimately bear? That is the core. ⸻ Risks cannot be ignored either Regulatory policies, centralized custody, hacker attacks, market cycles, industry competition, and underperformance of the X Layer ecosystem may all affect OKX and OKB. So my attitude is simple: OKX is worth long-term study, OKB is worth long-term tracking, but one should never heavily invest based on just one story. Investment is not about finding something that "definitely goes up." It is about finding: Real demand, sustained growth, reasonable valuation, and a balance between risk and reward. Data will change, prices will change, sentiment will change. What truly deserves long-term attention are assets that can continuously create real value and real demand. $OKB The BTCFi race is fiercely contested—can Core DAO truly stand out? ⚠️ Risk Warning: The content is for industry logic discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; participate rationally and control risks strictly. Trillions in dormant BTC assets are seeking yield channels, and BTCFi has become the core theme of this bull market. The field is crowded with contenders: Babylon, STX, Merlin, and Core DAO each follow different paths. Many community members ask: amid intense competition, does Core have a chance to break through? First, understand the landscape: it’s unlikely that a single giant will dominate the BTCFi track; the future will likely be segmented, with different solutions serving different capital needs. Babylon positions itself as a pure BTC re-staking tool with a simple model—users can rent out native BTC to earn network security yields without needing additional tokens, favored by minimalistic Bitcoin holders. However, its downside is clear: it’s just an infrastructure protocol without an independent smart contract public chain, unable to support lending, payments, RWA, and other complete ecosystems, inherently limiting its potential. Stacks, as a veteran Bitcoin L2, has a solid institutional foundation. Staking STX to earn BTC yields forms a stable narrative. But a fatal bottleneck is its incompatibility with EVM; its unique programming language raises developer barriers, making it hard to capture Ethereum’s vast DeFi overflow capital. Its token has no hard cap, leading to long-term inflation that suppresses its valuation ceiling. Merlin Chain focuses on ZK-Rollup Bitcoin Layer 2, supports EVM, and attracts large retail traffic through BRC20 and inscriptions. But its ecosystem heavily depends on hype cycles, lacks a native non-custodial BTC staking system, and most assets rely on cross-chain wrapping, making it hard to appeal to large Bitcoin institutional funds seeking extreme security. In contrast, Core DAO follows an independent L1 public chain route, possessing a unique differentiated moat in the track. Based on Satoshi Plus consensus, it leverages Bitcoin’s hash power network-wide to secure the network while fully supporting EVM, allowing all Ethereum DeFi apps to migrate and deploy at low cost. Unlike various wrapped BTC solutions, Core supports native Bitcoin mainnet time-locked staking, with users holding their private keys, no cross-chain wrapping or asset transfer needed, meeting the core security demands of conservative BTC whales. With a dual staking mechanism, pairing BTC with CORE for higher-tier yields, the b14g network has been widely implemented, continuously driving long-term CORE lock-up demand. The long-term roadmap is clear: staking infrastructure, SatPay crypto payments, DeFi, and RWA coordinated development aiming to build a complete BTCFi ecosystem loop; the token supply approaches 2.1 billion with an inflation end point, aligning with Bitcoin’s deflationary narrative. Behind the opportunities lie unavoidable risks. The 81-year continuous block reward release means long-term inflation pressure is the biggest mid-to-long-term constraint; high-tier dual staking requires holding both BTC and CORE, posing a participation barrier for pure BTC holders. SatPay’s full public beta, ecosystem fee revenue buybacks, and other core narratives are still in the expectation phase; currently, the number of blockbuster ecosystem apps is insufficient, and TVL growth speed remains to be proven. For Core to stand out amid fierce competition, four key inflection signals matter: continuous new highs in native BTC staked on b14g; steady user growth after SatPay’s official launch; normalized fee buyback mechanisms to hedge inflation; and attracting a large influx of external DeFi and RWA projects. In the long run, the track’s demand naturally segments: capital seeking simple staking yields chooses Babylon; inscription and short-term speculative capital prefers Merlin; native Bitcoin developers choose Stacks. Core targets incremental capital that values BTC asset security while needing a complete EVM smart contract ecosystem. If heavyweight products launch as scheduled and cash flow flywheels connect, Core is poised to solidify its position as the leading independent L1 BTCFi, achieving relative breakout; if ecosystem rollouts continue to delay, competition will persist long-term, making it hard to break out with a major independent rally. Competition in this track has never been about short-term hype; the ultimate outcome depends on who first converts grand narratives into sustained on-chain demand. Who do you think among the many BTCFi projects is most likely to become the ultimate winner? Share your thoughts in the comments.🟠 $MSTR THE BITCOIN FLYWHEEL IS FACING A NEW TEST Strategy became one of the biggest corporate Bitcoin stories by doing something remarkably consistent: Raise capital → buy $BTC → grow the Bitcoin treasury → repeat. But that machine now appears to be operating under different conditions. After weeks without a reported Bitcoin purchase and recent BTC sales, the market is being forced to reconsider an assumption that became almost synonymous with Strategy: Would the company really sell its Bitcoin? Apparently, the answer is no longer “never.” That doesn't mean the Bitcoin thesis is dead. It means the financing environment has changed. For years, a large premium in $MSTR relative to its Bitcoin holdings helped create a powerful capital-raising mechanism. When investors were willing to pay significantly more for MSTR than the underlying BTC value, Strategy could potentially issue shares, raise capital and use that capital to acquire even more Bitcoin. That created the famous flywheel. But when the mNAV approaches roughly 1x, that advantage becomes much weaker. At that point, issuing equity to buy more BTC becomes far less attractive because you're no longer raising capital against a large valuation premium. And that's where the current situation gets interesting. 📉 THE PROBLEM ISN'T BTC — IT'S THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE Strategy's Bitcoin holdings can still appreciate substantially if BTC continues higher. But the company also has ongoing financial obligations. Preferred dividends. Debt. Interest and financing costs. Shareholder commitments. Those expenses don't disappear simply because Bitcoin is trading sideways. If external capital becomes more expensive or the MSTR premium remains compressed, the company has fewer easy ways to keep expanding the Bitcoin treasury. That creates a completely different strategic environment. Instead of: “How much BTC can we accumulate?” The question becomes: “How efficiently can we finance and maintain the BTC we already own?” 🟠 THIS COULD MATTER FOR THE MARKET Strategy isn't Bitcoin itself. Is $BTC completing a major chip reshuffle in the bull market? This is a critical juncture where the market is transitioning from a "rebound" to a "long bull." A few months ago, many were panic-selling to avoid liquidation and losses, but now most accounts are showing profitable green numbers again. The selling logic in the market has completely shifted from the panic of "I have to sell or I won't survive" to the proactive choice of "I can finally take profits." You might think the strongest market is when no one sells? On the contrary, the current selling pressure is all healthy: Trapped holders at high prices are exiting as they recover their capital during the rebound, and funds positioned at the bottom are taking profits in batches. These sell orders at the current price level essentially cleanse the market of floating chips, replacing old chips shadowed by panic with new funds willing to buy at higher levels. The key to whether this reshuffle succeeds lies in the continuous net inflows of Bitcoin ETFs. The incremental liquidity brought by institutions is the most critical "blood bag" at this stage. As long as the new incoming funds can firmly absorb all the profit-taking sell orders, Bitcoin can move directly from the "absorbing selling pressure" phase into the next expansion phase; if the buying fails to hold, the previous rebound will turn into a bull trap caused by trapped holders fleeing en masse. No healthy bull market has ever been sustained by everyone holding to the death. The truly sustainable market always has some taking profits while a larger new capital queue is boarding. The selling by these profitable holders now is not a top signal—it is precisely a sign that the market is maturing from "rebounding on retail sentiment" to "being supported by institutional liquidity." As long as ETF net inflows do not experience a cliff-like drop and key support levels are not effectively broken, the current selling pressure is just the necessary chip exchange ritual before Bitcoin launches its next major upward wave. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $ETH $SNDK $BTC Bitcoin's massive shakeout: what's really going on (Three layers of intent) First layer: Gamma Pin before settlement, Gamma Release after settlement 24–48 hours before expiration, market makers keep Delta neutral by buying when the price touches 75K and selling when it touches 80K, pinning BTC in the 78–80K magnetic zone (historical data: volatility tends to drop 73% two weeks before major expirations). At 08:00 UTC contract expiration → instant unloading of hedging positions → release of compressed volatility energy, causing the "pump then dump, dump then pump" pattern you see — this is mechanical trading, not a consensus between bulls and bears. Second layer: 75K/80K is an options battlefield, not a spot market battlefield 75K Calls accumulate 236 million nominal, 80K Calls 157 million; when price is at 79K, 80K Calls are nearly in the money, so market makers must chase buys to hedge above 80K and chase sells to hedge back to 75K, resulting in two-way sweeping orders = source of the massive shakeout. Max Pain estimates range 68K–70K (Deribit data), 9–11K away from current price; theoretically price should "pull toward the pain point," but the current gap is too large and 62% of contracts expire out of the money, weakening the pain point's pull. The real behavior is market makers cutting back and forth within the 75–80K range. Third layer: Wash's speech is the macro trigger deciding the direction after the shakeout Same afternoon Wash's Jackson Hole debut (theme: Financial Innovation), three weeks before 9/16 FOMC: Dovish tilt (mentions soft employment, tacit approval of stablecoins) → post-shakeout ETF inflows (last week net inflow 1.92 billion) support price holding 80K, targeting 81.2K→85K Hawkish tilt (focus on 2% inflation, Higher for Longer, plus hot 3.7% PCE) → failure to hold 77K, shakeout turns into a pullback, looking down to 75–76K (75K Call concentration zone) or even 73K critical support Summary in one sentence Shakeout from options settlement = mechanical unwinding by market makers; direction from Wash's speech = macro capital repricing. The former determines "how fierce the shakeout is," the latter determines "where it goes after." Mixing these two to call bull or bear shows a misunderstanding of microstructure. Three-tier response (for 8/28–8/30 only) 77.5K hourly close stable + dovish Wash: shakeout is a washout, wait for a second push to 80K and weekly close stable before going long Fake break above 80.5K with quick return to 79K + neutral Wash: Pin action continues, do not chase, wait for pullback to 76.6K to see support Break below 77K with hawkish Wash + ETF inflows stop: shakeout turns into pullback, reduce positions targeting 75–76K, weekly break below 74K confirms extended bear trend The most costly mistake on expiration day shakeouts is mistaking "market makers cramping" for "main force launching." No betting on breakouts before 08:00 UTC, wait 4 hours after the speech for the close — that's the survival strategy for these 48 hours. $BTC 🟠 STRATEGY’S $BTC MACHINE IS BEING TESTED For years, Strategy’s model was remarkably simple: Raise capital → buy Bitcoin → increase BTC per share → repeat. But the latest developments raise a very different question: What happens when the machine needs to sell instead of buy? Strategy reportedly hasn't purchased BTC for nine weeks, with its last reported acquisition coming in mid-June: 520 BTC for roughly $35M. Since then, the company has reportedly sold around 5,258 BTC across three transactions. That is a major change in behavior for a company whose Bitcoin strategy became synonymous with aggressive accumulation. And the reason may be just as important as the selling itself. Strategy's financing structure depends heavily on its ability to access capital markets efficiently. When its stock trades at a substantial premium to the underlying Bitcoin value, issuing equity can provide capital for additional BTC purchases. But when that premium compresses toward 1x NAV, the economics become much less attractive. The flywheel starts losing momentum. 📉 THE REAL ISSUE ISN'T ONE SALE Selling BTC doesn't automatically mean the Bitcoin strategy has failed. Companies have expenses. Debt needs servicing. Preferred dividends need to be funded. Capital structures need to remain sustainable. The bigger concern is whether Bitcoin sales become a recurring source of funding rather than an exceptional liquidity-management tool. That's a completely different model. For years, the narrative was essentially: MSTR premium → capital raise → more BTC → larger BTC exposure → stronger premium. If the premium disappears, the equation becomes much harder to maintain. Instead of continually adding Bitcoin, the company may increasingly need to balance its BTC holdings against financing costs and shareholder obligations. 🟠 AND THAT CHANGES THE BTC DYNAMIC Strategy holds hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin, making its balance sheet extremely sensitive to BTC's price. When Bitcoin rises, the value of its holdings increases dramatically. But the reverse is also true $ETH $BTC and $ETH, the two major mainstream cryptocurrencies, have both recently experienced strong rebound rallies: $BTC price remains above $80,000, with a cumulative increase of over 21% in the past week. On August 25, it briefly surpassed $81,237, reaching a new high since mid-May. $ETH is currently priced around $2,520, with a 28.6% increase over the past week, significantly outperforming Bitcoin. $BTC Market Core Analysis Driving Factors The core logic behind this rally is "fiat credit hedging trading." The US government debt has exceeded $40 trillion, leading to a large influx of funds into Bitcoin to hedge against the declining purchasing power of the dollar. In mid-August, a historic short liquidation event occurred, with single short liquidations accounting for 85% of total liquidations. Over $7 billion in short positions were forcibly closed in the past week, further driving up the price. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow of over $2.2 billion since August 17, setting the strongest weekly capital inflow record this year. Key Price Levels Core support: $60,000–$62,000, tested multiple times since the June low, serving as an important defense line for bulls. Core resistance: $81,000–$86,000, a historically dense supply zone with many trapped chips, representing a key test for whether this rebound can continue. Risk Points August is historically Bitcoin's worst-performing month, with an average median return of -7.87% over the past 15 years; seasonal weakness pressure remains. Expectations for a Fed rate hike in September are rising, and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets in a high-interest environment increases, potentially suppressing further upside. $ETH Market Core Analysis Driving Factors On-chain supply and demand continue to tighten: Exchange ETH balances have dropped to the lowest point since 2020, with over 40 million ETH staked in contracts, accounting for 33% of circulating supply, passively locking up large amounts of chips and reducing market selling pressure. Institutional funds continue to flow in: The US spot Ethereum ETF has seen a net inflow exceeding $18 billion, with leading institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity continuously allocating via dollar-cost averaging, forming a solid price floor. Ecosystem narrative upgrade: AI + blockchain projects are expected to explode in 2026, on-chain activity is rebounding, and the EIP-1559 deflation mechanism continues to burn ETH, further shrinking supply. Key Price Levels Core support: $2,450–$2,470, with a well-maintained four-hour bullish structure; holding this range will preserve the upward trend. Core resistance: $2,823–$3,230, the next important pressure zone for this rebound; breaking through will open new upside space. Risk Points Daily MACD shows a potential bearish divergence risk; after continuous gains, a pullback or correction may occur at any time, making blind chasing risky. Ethereum ETF inflows are 30% slower than Bitcoin's; traditional institutions are still adapting to its smart contract platform positioning, resulting in weaker short-term explosive power compared to Bitcoin. Overall Market Summary The current market is in an early rebound phase driven jointly by institutional inflows and short liquidations. The synchronized accumulation across all wallet sizes has lasted for 20 days, the longest cycle since late 2024, with a clear medium-term upward trend. However, strong resistance exists in the upper dense supply zone, combined with Fed policy uncertainty. The subsequent pattern is likely to be a volatile upward trend with intermittent pullbacks. Blindly chasing highs is not advisable; it is better to wait for a pullback to key support levels before entering positions. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #OKX预言家：豪门联赛、LCK与F1预测进行中 $BTC is hovering around 78,000. To be honest, I really have nothing to panic about. Since the pullback from 81,250, the market has been full of voices saying "it's peaked" and "time to run." But in my view, isn't this just a normal chip exchange after a big rise? The weekly chart of the market has just broken above 80,000, the ETF has had net inflows for 7 consecutive days, and last week the Bitcoin spot ETF saw net inflows exceeding $2.2 billion. Money is still flowing in continuously, so where is the top? The most critical level now is 78,000. As long as it holds, it's a buildup. The last bottom line below is 76,000. As long as it doesn't break, the bullish trend remains intact. The first target above is still 80,000. Once it breaks through, the high point of 81,250 will soon be reclaimed. Today, the entire network liquidated 147 million, with longs accounting for 89%. This is a good thing; the cleaner the leverage is cleared, the easier the subsequent rally will be. The remaining positions are all chips with strong conviction, not giving up their positions because of minor fluctuations. I have been holding my BTC long positions all along. Stop loss? None set. My goal this time is simple: above 83,000. Whatever fluctuations happen in between don't concern me. Below 79,000, let it do whatever it wants. If I want to watch, I watch briefly; if not, I don't watch. In trading, in the end, it's not about skill but patience. I only care about where it ultimately goes, not how it gets there. Just wait. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 6.4 billion options expire today, if Bitcoin can't hold 80,000 it will plunge At 16:00 this afternoon, $BTC options worth 6.4 billion USD expire, 80,000 is the critical line. The largest call option open interest is concentrated at 75,000 and 80,000. Market makers, to hedge, have been buying coins all the way from 62,000 to 80,000, now the buying power is basically exhausted. Once the price falls below 80,000 at expiration, a large number of call options become worthless, market makers will unwind their hedging positions and collectively sell off, the price may directly test 75,000 or even lower. Additionally, at the same time, Warsh will speak at Jackson Hole; if the tone is hawkish (implying rate hikes), it will be a double negative. My judgment: I tend to believe the dual selling pressure from short-term profit-taking and option hedging will weigh on the price around expiration. If 80,000 holds, look to 85,000; if not, look to 75,000-77,000. Today is a key node for directional choice, watch more and trade less. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ The forward $3.5 trillion revenue guidance and the spot volatility compression to 57 are misaligned. The current core conflict lies in the game between the low volatility absorption caused by passive index building and the risk of realizing high forward valuations. The stock price has been locked in a narrow $10 range around $140 for three consecutive weeks, accompanied by implied volatility dropping from 120 before earnings to 57, confirming that the buyer's premium chase is being suppressed. The put-call open interest ratio has fallen from 1.2 to 1.1, while call option volume reached 335,000 contracts on Thursday, indicating that capital is attempting to bet on a short-term breakout in a low volatility environment. The market driving force hierarchy has evolved as follows: passive index allocation locking up the float comes first, followed by insider low selling pressure after lock-up expiration, and lastly, the long-term performance outlook of over seven years boosting risk appetite. Passive buying in the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 1000 has reduced the actual spot volatility, causing the high forward performance commitments to fail to translate into volatility premiums in near-term options. The bullish scenario requires a spot breakout above the $144 strike price, accompanied by a spot price increase of more than 3.5% within a short time at the strike price. If active call option buying remains above 168,000 contracts and drives volume expansion, the market will initiate a Delta squeeze, opening the path toward the $16 volatility range expected by the September 25 expiration; the invalidation signal is the stock price falling back below the $140 midpoint. The bearish scenario triggers when realized volatility remains below the implied volatility of 57, causing accelerated decay and closing of option long premiums. When put option buying regains dominance and pushes the open interest ratio back above 1.2, the passive allocation's absorption capacity will be exhausted, and the spot price may test the lower boundary of the $130 range; the invalidation signal is a volume breakout above $144. If implied volatility further drops to the 54–55 range, volatility selling strategies will dominate absolutely, and the current directional speculation logic based on option buyers will completely fail. At that point, even if the forward guidance mentions $1 trillion by 2030 or $3.5 trillion by 2033, it will not change the market's characteristic of directionless wear. The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are changes in open interest for the $144 strike contracts and whether implied volatility can stabilize and stop falling in the 55 range. #OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 #Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？$SOL is skyrocketing, what are $BTC and $ETH doing? Why is SOL so strong? Many people wonder why SOL is rising more fiercely than the mainstream coins. The answer is simple: Charles Schwab's $12 trillion asset pool is about to open a trading channel for it, and the institutional-level altcoin liquidity dividend has hit it first. Additionally, its RWA ecosystem has recently produced solid incremental growth, and open interest contracts have surged to a nearly two-month high. With its high Beta characteristic, once market sentiment warms up, its gains naturally lead the pack. But don't think BTC and ETH are falling behind. In fact, BTC first locked the entire crypto market firmly within the bull market range through liquidity easing and strategic reserve narratives, while ETH has been firmly supporting the ecosystem's value base with continuous net inflows from spot ETFs. Once large funds stabilize their positions in these two major mainstream coins, the overflow capital naturally flows into more elastic assets like SOL. Essentially, this is not a solo show for SOL, nor a win solely for BTC and ETH. It is a typical bull market path where Wall Street funds gradually penetrate from core mainstream coins into high Beta alt assets layer by layer. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Largest Transfer in August — Six Wallets Wake Up Concentratedly From August 16 to 26, six wallets dormant since 2011, 2012, and 2014 collectively transferred 553.59 BTC, valued at approximately $40.15 million. These wallets had been inactive for 10.5 to 15.1 years, with the earliest coins purchased in June 2011 at about $14 each, now appreciating over 460,000 times in value. Funds Flow: The latest transfer of 40 BTC went to the German crypto custodian Boerse Stuttgart Digital, while the rest of the funds have no clear exchange destination. Annual Trend: Old Coins Awakening Has Become Routine Since 2026, the scale of old coin awakenings has far exceeded this batch in August: · In May, over 5,000 BTC were transferred · On May 6, a Satoshi-era address moved 687 BTC (about $43.9 million) · In early August, a wallet dormant for 12.5 years since 2014 transferred 26.96 BTC, with an average holding cost of about $803 and potential gains of approximately 7,975% --- II. Driving Factors: Triple Resonance 1. Legal Litigation: New York "Dormant Address" Case Two of the six wallets are tagged "Salomon Client Dusted," directly related to a lawsuit filed by the pseudonymous plaintiff Noah Doe. Noah Doe is suing in New York Supreme Court to classify 39,069 dormant Bitcoin addresses as abandoned property under state lost property law. The court served notice by sending dust transactions to thousands of wallets — the direct cause of some wallets being "awakened" recently. 2. Hardware Wallet Security Incident The trust crisis triggered by the Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability is becoming a key driver for long-term holders to move their coins. For early holders with tens of millions of dollars in Bitcoin, security threats are sufficient motivation to migrate assets from untrusted old addresses to new ones. 3. High Price and Profit Taking Bitcoin recently rebounded from about $74,000 to over $81,000, trading at historic highs. Early holders face strong incentives to realize profits — Bitcoin bought at $14 in 2011 has now inflated by hundreds of thousands of times. Assets moved from long-dormant addresses may eventually flow to exchanges or OTC channels for liquidation. --- III. Market Implications: Should We Worry? Short-term Signals: Avoid Excessive Panic On-chain analysts generally agree that there is no need for excessive panic. Three reasons: 1. Transfer Does Not Equal Sell: Many awakened addresses only move assets to new addresses (possibly for security or custody reasons) without directly depositing to exchanges 2. New Buyers Continue Entering: Some analysts view the re-circulation of old coins as a sign of a maturing and healthy crypto ecosystem 3. "Big Distribution" Phase Nearing End: Galaxy Digital’s research head expects 2026’s old coin activation to be less than half of 2025’s, indicating the large-scale exit cycle of early holders is basically over Long-term Perspective: Supply Structure Is Changing As of August 2026, over 3.56 million BTC have remained unmoved for more than ten years, accounting for about 17.7% of circulating Bitcoin supply — meaning one in every six BTC is in deep sleep. When this "lost supply" begins to flow again, it essentially represents a structural adjustment on the supply side — early locked supply re-entering circulation, while new buyers (institutions, ETFs, long-term allocators) absorb on the other end. --- IV. Summary This round of concentrated awakening of dormant Bitcoin addresses is most directly triggered by legal litigation (New York Noah Doe case), with hardware wallet security incidents and high prices as important auxiliary factors. For the market, this is not a signal of a bull-to-bear turn but a supply handover between early holders and a new generation of investors. As Galaxy Digital points out, the "big distribution" phase is nearing its end. What truly matters is not that these old coins "woke up" but where they ultimately flow — to custodians, new wallets, or exchanges — which determines their actual impact on market liquidity. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 SOL attention speed 1.10 times, what really matters is whether it can continue OKX Onchain OS recorded 30 mentions of SOL in one hour at 03:00 on August 28, a speed about 1.10 times the 24-hour hourly average, with the current sentiment being "clearly bullish dominant." Here, two things need to be separated: an increase in mention speed only indicates more new discussions; bullish or bearish dominance only represents text classification, neither equates to actual buy or sell orders. In this round of sources, X has 30 mentions, news 0 mentions; the more concentrated the source, the easier it is for a single narrative to be amplified. I will wait for the next snapshot to confirm whether the speed and sources continue, then additionally check spot trading volume, funding rates, open interest, and on-chain usage. When data corroborates each other, this wave of heat is worth a closer look.1. Fund Scale: Gold ETFs Attract Record Inflows Domestic Gold ETFs: Over 10 Billion in Two Months Since July, the total net inflow of mainstream domestic gold ETFs has exceeded 10 billion yuan. Among them, Huaan Gold ETF stands out, with a scale increase of 9.402 billion yuan in the past week (as of August 25), ranking first among all market ETFs; it grew by 20.376 billion yuan in the past month, also ranking first among all ETFs. As of August 21, seven major commodity gold ETFs have had a combined net inflow of 6.861 billion yuan since August, with Huaan Gold ETF accounting for nearly 80%, with a net inflow of 5.45 billion yuan within the month. Huaan Gold ETF is the first commodity ETF in the entire market to surpass the 100 billion yuan scale mark. Global Gold ETFs: $3 Billion Reverses Outflows In July this year, global physical gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $3 billion, reversing the previous two months of net outflows; global gold ETF assets under management rose to $530 billion, with holdings increasing by 23 tons to 4,068 tons. The world’s largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold ETF—increased its holdings by about 40 tons since the beginning of the month. --- 2. Why Are Safe-Haven Funds Concentrating in Gold? Core Catalyst: U.S. Treasury Buybacks Trigger Debt Concerns On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would raise the single transaction limit for long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. This comes against the backdrop of the 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassing 5.3%, a new high since 2007. The market interprets this policy as further highlighting debt issues—the Treasury is trying to lower financing costs, but the market worries about the sustainability of the debt, the creditworthiness of the dollar, and the Federal Reserve’s independence. Three Major Driving Factors Resonating ① Significantly Weakened Rate Hike Expectations: After July’s negative nonfarm payroll data, market expectations for Fed rate hikes have systematically faded, removing the biggest macro headwind for gold. ② Central Banks’ Continued Strategic Gold Purchases: In Q2 2026, global central banks purchased 288 tons of gold, a 62% year-over-year increase, maintaining an annualized historical high of about 1,100 tons. China’s gold reserves reached 76.08 million ounces in July, marking the 21st consecutive month of accumulation, accelerating monthly during gold price pullbacks. ③ "Decoupling" Between Gold and U.S. Treasury Yields: Traditionally, rising yields suppress gold prices, but when yield increases reflect fiscal debt pressure and market concerns over dollar credit, gold’s safe-haven attribute is strengthened—this is exactly what is happening now. --- 3. The Deep Logic Behind Safe-Haven Fund Reallocation The Full Return of the "Currency Depreciation Trade" The so-called "currency depreciation trade" refers to investors seeking refuge in scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin due to expectations of persistent fiscal deficits and inflation eroding the dollar’s purchasing power. Currently, the dollar index has fallen to the 98 range, the U.S. fiscal deficit continues to expand, and the "de-dollarization" trend persists. Gold, as a value store not reliant on sovereign credit, is gaining increasing attention. From "Either-Or" to "Buy Both" A key change is that investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both simultaneously. The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has risen to the highest positive level since the pandemic, with both seen as aligned tools to hedge fiat currency credit risk. --- 4. Specific Impact on the Crypto Space Capital Spillover Effect: Bitcoin Benefits in Tandem In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have attracted about $7 billion combined, setting a record. Among them, SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) had a net inflow of about $3.4 billion, and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) had a net inflow of about $1.5 billion. The core signal from this data is that safe-haven funds are systematically increasing allocations to asset classes that are "supply scarce and not constrained by government credit"—both gold and Bitcoin fall under this logic. Strengthened Macro Narrative: Bitcoin Returns to Its "Digital Gold" Positioning Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, pointed out that this rally brings Bitcoin back to its core narrative—"this is exactly what Bitcoin was born to do; it is its fundamental essence." Bernstein analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $300,000 by 2029, positioning it as the biggest beneficiary of the "currency depreciation trade." Dalio’s Allocation Signal Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, recently recommended reducing bond and other debt assets, allocating about 10%-15% of total assets to gold, and holding a small amount of Bitcoin. This allocation advice from the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund has a demonstrative effect on institutional capital flows. Where Is the Capital Coming From? The AI Sector Begins to "Fall Out of Favor" Wall Street capital is clearly shifting from hot sectors like AI and semiconductors to "hard assets" such as gold and Bitcoin. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted this trend signals a structural shift in risk appetite. --- 5. Summary The large inflows into gold ETFs are not isolated events but a microcosm of the full return of the "currency depreciation trade." The deep driving force is the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit and doubts about debt sustainability, systematically reshaping global capital allocation logic. For the crypto space, this trend means: 1. Bitcoin is being incorporated into the mainstream narrative of "safe-haven assets," sharing the same hedging logic as gold. 2. Institutional funds are increasing allocations to both gold and Bitcoin simultaneously, rather than choosing between them. 3. Allocation advice from top institutions like Dalio may further accelerate this trend. 4. If Waller signals dovishness at Jackson Hole, the linked upward movement of gold and Bitcoin will be further strengthened. #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 Large Inflows into Gold ETFs, Risk-Averse Capital Reallocation, and the Crypto Sphere I. Underlying Logic Behind the Current Large Inflows into Gold ETFs SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) has seen a phase of significant net inflows, driven by a dual force of institutional risk aversion and currency depreciation trades. Drivers: High U.S. fiscal deficits, U.S. debt repurchase plans, market concerns over the dilution of the dollar's purchasing power; combined with sticky core PCE inflation, uncertainty raised by the Jackson Hole meeting, and escalating geopolitical risks. Institutional funds are rebalancing assets, shifting part of their capital from U.S. equity risk assets into gold to build a defensive portfolio base. Capital Reallocation Model: This is not a simple withdrawal of funds from the crypto market but a rebalancing at the major asset class level. Current institutional allocation approach: Gold serves as the portfolio's defensive ballast, while BTC/ETH aim for elastic returns; the two are complementary, not zero-sum substitutes. • Gold: Responsible for risk resistance, hedging geopolitical risks and Fed hawkish black swan events, seeking stability. • BTC: A digital scarce asset aiming for high elasticity, benefiting from institutional ETF inflows. Historically, only during extreme liquidity crises has there been a capital tug-of-war where gold rises while BTC simultaneously plunges. Currently, both types of ETFs are attracting capital simultaneously, with scarce assets being added concurrently. II. Impact on BTC and ETH Market Layers 1. Medium to Long Term (Generally Positive) Large-scale gold inflows indicate institutions have initiated a "hedging fiat credit risk" allocation framework, bolstering BTC's "digital gold" narrative in the broader environment. Institutions accept the logic of scarce, anti-dilution assets; BlackRock's BTC/ETH ETF continuous net inflows are results of the same macro logic. The gold bull market opening indirectly provides macro environment support for BTC's valuation ceiling. 2. Short-Term Scenario Differentiation (Key Focus: Jackson Hole Speech) Scenario ①: Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech (High Probability) U.S. Treasury yields rise. • Gold: ETF inflows slow or even temporarily reverse, pressuring gold prices. • BTC/ETH: BlackRock ETF buying partially offsets selling pressure but fails to break above 81500-83000 for BTC and 2550 for ETH, returning to range-bound trading. Scenario ②: Neutral Jackson Hole Statement U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fluctuate. Gold ETFs maintain moderate inflows; BTC and ETH continue current consolidation. The scarce asset narrative persists with no major directional changes. Scenario ③: Dovish Signal from Speech (Low Probability) U.S. Treasury yields decline, gold ETFs continue large inflows, simultaneously driving BTC volume to break resistance levels, opening upward momentum. III. Impact on Altcoins 1. Mainstream High-Beta Altcoins (SOL, ZEC) Not directly benefiting from gold capital inflows but benefiting from the overall market environment. If the macro risk expectations represented by gold are controllable and the market stabilizes, speculative funds may rotate back into altcoins; if macro risks erupt, altcoins fall much more than BTC, ETH, and even more than gold. 2. Small-Cap Thematic Coins Completely unaffected by gold ETF dividends, relying solely on thematic sentiment. Institutional risk-averse funds will not flow into small-cap coins. IV. Clarification of Two Important Market Misconceptions 1. Misconception: Gold's sharp rise means capital fleeing crypto Reality: Only during liquidity panic sell-offs do funds abandon crypto for gold. Currently, scarce assets across major asset classes are being increased simultaneously, not a capital exodus from crypto. 2. Misconception: Gold rising means BTC will definitely rise Reality: Both share macro drivers but differ vastly in volatility levels. If the Fed signals aggressive rate hikes, gold may only pull back while BTC could suffer deep corrections. Gold is defensive; BTC is a risk-elastic asset. V. Comprehensive Summary Based on Current Market 1. Large gold ETF inflows reflect institutional concerns over U.S. debt and inflation, providing macro narrative soil for BTC, but gold itself does not directly bring incremental funds to crypto. 2. The real market driver remains the Fed's rate stance at Jackson Hole; gold ETF flows serve as a macro sentiment indicator, not a market driver. 3. Observation signals: ① Whether gold ETF inflows continue; ② 2-year U.S. Treasury yield; ③ Daily capital flows in BlackRock BTC/ETH ETFs; Key price levels: BTC resistance 81500-83000, support 74800; ETH resistance 2550, support 2240. #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 🚨 WHY DID $SOL JUST EXPLODE FROM $60 TO $100+? A 70%+ rebound doesn’t happen for no reason. Everyone is asking, “Why is Solana pumping this hard?” Here’s the bigger picture 👇 1️⃣ Macro liquidity may be lighting the fuse On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced plans to double the size of its long-term bond buybacks from $2B to $4B per operation. At the same time, the 30-year Treasury yield pulled back from its recent high around 5.34%. Why does that matter for crypto? #DailyOrbit As of the close on August 27, 2026, Marvell Technology (MRVL) was priced at $241.45, down 1.49% for the day. The stock opened high at $253.44, reached an intraday high of $254.58 before retreating, with a low of $240.38. The trading volume was as high as $9.306 billion, indicating extremely active trading. The earnings report is the current key variable. The company released its Q2 earnings after the market closed on the same day: net revenue of $2.74 billion, a year-over-year increase of 37%, exceeding market expectations; adjusted earnings per share of $0.94, also above expectations. The company expects adjusted EPS for Q3 to be between $1.05 and $1.15. Despite the better-than-expected results, the stock price fell 5.63% after hours to $227.86, possibly related to profit-taking triggered by the huge prior gains (approximately 184.54% increase year-to-date). Institutions remain bullish long-term. Before the earnings report, Wells Fargo raised its target price to $310, and multiple institutions issued "buy" ratings. The average Wall Street target price is about $269, still roughly 11% above the current price. The current price-to-earnings ratio is about 82 times, indicating a high valuation, but the long-term growth logic of AI connectivity and custom chip business remains the core support.1. July PCE Data: Inflation Stubborn, Rate Cut Expectations Dashed The US July PCE data was released on August 26, with the key points as follows: Indicator Actual Expected Previous Overall PCE YoY 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% Overall PCE MoM 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% Core PCE YoY 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Core PCE MoM 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Core PCE YoY remained steady at 3.3%, with a slight MoM increase. Although core PCE met expectations, overall PCE exceeded expectations, and both remain well above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge remains stubborn. Market immediate reaction: The rate cut narrative is temporarily off the table; CME FedWatch shows the probability of a September rate hike rising to about 38%, with a 59.6% chance of no change in September. US Treasury yields hold at a high of 4.66%, the US dollar index rebounds to 99.17. Bitcoin retreated from above $81,000 to consolidate near $78,600. --- 2. Waller's Jackson Hole Speech: The "Ultimate Variable" the Market Awaits Waller will deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote speech as Fed Chair at 10:00 AM ET on August 28 (10:00 PM Beijing time, August 28). Special background of the speech · Inflation has exceeded the 2% target for five consecutive years; 30-year Treasury yield near 5.2% · July FOMC vote was 9:3, but support for rate hikes is broader than the vote suggests · Economy shows a "high prices + slowing growth" combination (Q2 GDP annualized at only 1.5%) · Jackson Hole has historically triggered market shocks—2010 Bernanke laid groundwork for QE2 here (S&P 500 rose 28% in eight months), 2022 Powell’s eight-minute speech caused Dow to drop over 1000 points Market expectations and tone Analysts expect Waller to continue emphasizing anti-inflation stance but may refrain from rate hikes before the midterm elections. Waller has also convened 15 external experts to review the Fed’s monetary policy framework; the market is focused not only on September rates but also on the long-term policy philosophy. --- 3. Specific Impact Analysis on the Crypto Space Transmission paths Bitcoin $BTC, Ethereum $ETH, and other crypto assets are highly sensitive to liquidity, interest rates, and USD trends. Waller’s speech affects crypto through three channels: 1. Interest rate expectations path: Hawkish → rate hike expectations rise → risk assets pressured; Dovish → rate cut expectations → positive for risk assets 2. USD path: Hawkish → USD strengthens → BTC priced in USD pressured; Dovish → USD weakens → BTC strengthens 3. Liquidity expectations path: Dovish bias → liquidity improvement expectations → capital inflow into crypto market Scenario 1: Waller dovish (short-term rebound) If Waller emphasizes economic slowdown risks, hints at pausing hikes or leaving room for future cuts: · Bitcoin may rebound short-term, challenging resistance zone at $81,500–$82,500 · USD index falls, US Treasury yields decline, risk appetite recovers · The "debasement trade" between gold and Bitcoin is likely to continue Scenario 2: Waller hawkish (triggering pullback) If Waller stresses stubborn inflation and keeps rate hike options open: · Could "undermine the past week’s rebound in gold and Bitcoin" and further pressure AI-driven stock market support · Bitcoin may test first support line at $77,000–$77,500, possibly approaching strong support near $76,000 · Probability of September rate hike rises further, risk assets broadly pressured Scenario 3: Waller ambiguous/framework remarks (maintain volatility) Market widely expects Waller likely won’t give a clear direction. If he focuses more on policy framework than specific rate actions: · Bitcoin remains range-bound between $77,000 and $82,500 short-term · The real directional choice postponed until the September 16 FOMC meeting --- 4. Unique Highlight of This Meeting: Digital Payments Topic This year’s Jackson Hole theme is "Financial Innovation: Impacts on Payments and Policy," placing digital payments, crypto assets, and stablecoins at the core for the first time. This means Waller’s speech is not only a rate signal but may also reveal regulatory attitudes toward digital assets: · If Waller views stablecoins and tokenized deposits as part of financial system innovation, smart contract networks and tokenized payment protocols will benefit more directly · If he adopts a cautious or even hawkish regulatory stance, it will suppress long-term expectations for the crypto ecosystem --- 5. Summary The current market state can be summarized as: PCE data has "landed" but is somewhat bearish (overall exceeding expectations), and Waller’s speech is the last variable this week. On-chain data shows long-term holders continue to take profits near $81,000; US spot demand remains weak; Coinbase premium is negative. Short-term buying power is insufficient to absorb selling pressure. Regardless of Waller’s tone, the September 16 FOMC meeting is the true rate decision moment—every word in Jackson Hole will be a clue the market will repeatedly analyze before then. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ NVIDIA's Solo Dance, Hardware's Languish: Capital Is Completing a "Consensus Migration" NVIDIA delivered a "flawless" report card, soaring in pre-market trading. But in the shadows, Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix—hardware stocks in the same sector—collectively "plummeted." It's the familiar formula again: the leader cashes in on good news, while the sector internally undergoes a brutal "high-low cut." Capital is speaking with real money—the "arms race" story of computing power infrastructure has been told to the brim in the short term; chips need to change hands, and expectations need to be digested. In contrast, the crypto world has quietly straightened its back. Bitcoin firmly stands back at 80,000, and Ethereum has broken through 2,500. This is not a simple oversold rebound but a systematic migration of "smart money." Many macro funds and hedge institutions have begun to view BTC and ETH as "new hardware" to counter liquidity premiums—no inventory cycles, no risk of order cuts, only scarcity encoded in immutable code. AI hardware is caught in divergence, while crypto has instead become the "spillway" for the relay. On one side is the concern of a peak in the traditional semiconductor cycle; on the other is the supply-demand gap after the digital gold halving. Where capital flows, the candlestick charts have already drawn the picture clearly enough. At this moment, watching SanDisk's plunge, I only want to place a long order at 1480—not betting on a rebound, but betting that the wave of this capital migration is far from its climax. 2000 might just be the starting point.Core PCE Steady + Waugh Jackson Hole Speech, Complete Crypto Market Analysis 1. Basic Background of PCE Data July core PCE year-on-year at 3.3%, unchanged from last month, remaining well above the 2% target without further decline; overall PCE slightly increased, household income remains resilient, but consumption momentum weakens. After the data release, the probability of a September rate hike rose from 36% to 42%, and U.S. Treasury real yields moved higher. 2. Three Speech Scenarios of Waugh (Jackson Hole) Scenario 1: Hawkish Tone (Highest Probability) Speech Core: Inflation stickiness is worrisome, does not rule out a September rate hike; emphasizes maintaining high interest rates longer, refuses to release a rate cut timetable, insists on data-driven decisions without forward guidance. 1. Macro transmission: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise, risk asset valuations under pressure. 2. Crypto market segmentation: • BTC/ETH: ETF buying provides some support, but failure to break above 81500-83000 and 2550 resistance leads to a pullback testing 74800 and 2240 support zones. • High-beta altcoins (SOL, ZEC): Declines exceed the broader market, large-scale contract liquidations, thematic and small-cap coins see significant sell-offs. • Market characteristics: Initial rapid dip, then watch if ETFs continue net inflows; if ETFs simultaneously turn to outflows, correction depth expands. Scenario 2: Neutral Balance (Second Highest Probability) Speech Core: Acknowledges stubborn inflation but also notes weakening consumption; maintains rates in September, keeps future hikes as an option, does not lock in a path or release clear easing signals; this annual meeting focuses on financial innovation and stablecoin discussions, avoiding strong rate signals. 1. Macro: U.S. Treasury and dollar fluctuate, little change in rate expectations. 2. Crypto market: BTC and ETH maintain wide oscillation around 80000 with repeated consolidation; after short-term minor pulses, return to original range. Positive narrative for stablecoins; SOL, ZEC and other high-beta altcoins show short-term pulses but lack sustained upward momentum. Scenario 3: Unexpectedly Dovish (Very Low Probability) Speech Core: Concerned about economic weakness, suggests inflation risks are controllable, excludes near-term hikes, signals future rate cut window. 1. Macro: U.S. Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens, risk asset valuations recover. 2. Crypto market: BTC surges to challenge 81500-83000 resistance, ETH holds above 2550; SOL, ZEC, and thematic altcoins rally collectively, high-beta coins fully release elasticity. 3. Key Current Market Constraints 1. ETF funds are an important buffer If Waugh is hawkish but BlackRock ETFs continue net inflows, BTC and ETH declines will be significantly offset; if hawkish speech coincides with ETF inflow slowdown, correction magnitude will increase. 2. Dormant ancient wallet selling pressure is a secondary variable Macro liquidity > on-chain dormant wallet selling; only macro shifts will amplify on-chain selling pressure impact. 3. Hong Kong conference benefits are medium to long-term sentiment and cannot offset liquidity tightening pressure from Fed hawkishness. 4. Key Signals to Watch Next 1. Speech keywords: whether "inflation risk, retaining rate hike options, maintaining high rates longer" are mentioned is core to judging hawkish or dovish tone. 2. Synchronous indicators: 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, dollar index. 3. ETF funds: whether IBIT and ETHA inflows continue 1-2 trading days after speech. 4. Key price levels: BTC 81500 resistance, 74800 support; ETH 2550 resistance, 2240 support; SOL 112 resistance, 98 support. 5. Summary The current steady core PCE situation: inflation stuck mid-level, Waugh unlikely to make purely dovish statements. The biggest market risk is hawkish signals of "maintaining high rates longer" from the speech; neutral scenario leads to continued market oscillation; dovish is a low-probability surprise. Jackson Hole speech will directly pre-price the September Fed decision, its influence surpasses that of the PCE itself. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Market Rhythm: At 16:00 and 21:51 Beijing time, the market saw two strong rallies. The price steadily rose from around $79,000, successfully holding the $80,000 mark, then maintained a consolidating pattern at high levels, reaching an intraday high of $80,848.74. Market Linkage The strong performance of the crypto market is not an isolated trend—the US US cryptocurrency index, which rose 4.70% during the same period, holding steadily around 74 points; Crypto concept stocks rose across the board, with Strategy (MSTR.US) gaining over 10%, and Coinbase and other stocks closing higher, with overall market risk appetite clearly increasing. Market Structure Signals: Leveraged Holdings: In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin cumulative liquidations reached $113.03 million, with short liquidations accounting for 71%, indicating significant bear pressure. The market is currently focused on two key liquidation thresholds—$1.26 billion in long positions near $77,293. If the price falls below this level, it could trigger a chain of liquidations; while $80,338 is marked by $317.74 million in short exposure. If it breaks through, it could further fuel the short squeeze. Technical Pattern: Bitcoin has stabilized across the entire EMA moving average system, with standard bullish alignment and Bollinger Bands opening upward. Prices are near the upper band, indicating a strong overall bullish structure. However, after consecutive ralls, the MACD red bars have slightly weakened, indicating a short-term possibility of a high-level correction and recovery, so attention should be paid to changes in rhythm. Liquidity Background: Recently, Bitcoin E $HUMA HUMA's large-scale unlocking of 20% circulating supply is public information. The market had already declined in advance before the unlock in May and before the new round of unlocking in August to digest expectations. When the unlock actually takes place, it will be the "boot dropping," clearing out bearish sentiment, and short-term funds will instead enter the market to speculate on a rebound.Institutional Large-Scale Accumulation Signal Emerges According to on-chain data, BlackRock has been buying BTC and ETH through IBIT and ETHA spot ETFs for 8 consecutive trading days, purchasing a total of approximately $3.161 billion. This includes 27,722 BTC and 385,633 ETH, with crypto asset management scale surging by $15.1 billion in August. Key point: This is passive buying driven by ETF subscriptions, not BlackRock's proprietary bullish stance. The proportion of ETH purchases in this round has significantly increased, indicating institutions are raising their allocation weight to Ethereum. The amount of BTC absorbed over 8 days far exceeds new mining output, directly tightening market liquidity supply. US crypto ETFs saw strong inflows in August. Whether the subsequent market trend can continue depends mainly on the sustained enthusiasm for ETF subscriptions; once funds retreat, there is a risk of price correction. On the macro level, fiscal uncertainties will continue to guide capital flows toward scarce assets. In short: Institutional funds are entering through compliant channels, Ethereum's status is being reassessed, but this should not be simply equated with a one-sided bull market. The inflow volume far exceeds new BTC mining supply, directly tightening market chips. $BTC $ETH Recently, voices about CORE have suddenly become increasingly intense on overseas social platforms. Several bloggers have expressed their optimism in unison, and discussions in the community have rapidly risen, market volatility has increased, and the saying "one price per day" has started circulating in Chinese-speaking circles. This atmosphere easily leads to the illusion that if you don't enter soon, the market will slip through your fingers. Heat itself is a direct reflection of market sentiment and is worth paying attention to, but it should be viewed separately from the project's fundamentals. The speed at which emotions ferment often outpaces actual progress and realization—this is a recurring pattern in the crypto market. This round of foreign bloggers is focused on bullishness, and the supporting logic is actually not new; the core still revolves around the BTC-Fi sector. On one hand, lstBTC's staking scale is steadily accumulating, on-chain protocol revenue is now visible, and the track logic has been preliminarily validated; On the other hand, products like SatPay, Core Alpha, and decentralized stablecoins collateralized by Bitcoin are currently in development and auditing, and the market holds high expectations for future implementation. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see large net inflows, overall risk appetite is warming, and funds are seeking rotation opportunities in niche sectors like BTC-Fi. Multiple factors combine and sentiment are transmitted to the market, resulting in short-term rapid volatility. But there is a key fact to recognize here: rapid short-term price fluctuations are mostly the result of emotional capital games, and do not mean the project's fundamentals have made a qualitative leap in a single day. Development, auditing,💣The Bank of Korea has raised interest rates again. On August 27, it raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points from 2.75% to 3%. This is not an isolated event; it is the second consecutive rate hike following July. Why the urgency? Three reasons combined. First, AI semiconductors are booming, with Q2 GDP surging to 3.7%, far exceeding expectations. Second, the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher, and the depreciation of the Korean won has further intensified imported inflation. Third, housing prices are also rising, and the risk of financial imbalance can no longer be suppressed. Bank Governor Shin Hyun-sung put it bluntly: inflationary pressure "will persist." The rate hike was expected, but the vote was not unanimous—6 out of 7 members approved, 1 opposed. The Bank of Korea also raised this year's economic growth forecast from 2.6% to 3.3%. Market reactions were quite mixed. The Korean won strengthened, Korean government bond futures fell. The KOSPI index initially rose more than 2.7% at the open, then plunged immediately after the rate hike news, but recovered to close up 1.53%. For the crypto market, this is a clear signal of tightening liquidity. South Korea is one of the world's most active crypto trading markets, with Upbit consistently ranking among the top in spot trading volume. As Korea begins consecutive rate hikes, local retail investors' leverage costs and risk appetite will be directly squeezed. Citi has already forecasted possible additional hikes in November and February next year, with terminal rates possibly reaching 3.5%. The Bank of Korea is tightening "preemptively," and is ahead of the Federal Reserve. For risk assets, this is not a friendly signal.Is Nvidia's positive news really good news for storage? Last night after Nvidia's $xNVDA earnings report, the group chat was flooded with "storage is about to take off." Today, SanDisk is down 1.97%, Micron down 2.53%, SK Hynix up 2.4%. The slap in the face came faster than food delivery! I'm just speechless... I reviewed my initial reaction, which was also "positive." But after breaking down the earnings report, the logic is much more complex than the emotion. Nvidia mentioned three things: 1. Demand is accelerating, Q3 guidance of 108B exceeds expectations, and fiscal year 2028 revenue is expected to increase by 70% — this is a broad growth logic for the entire AI supply chain. 2. Memory prices are rising faster than expected, and supply tightness will last at least until fiscal year 2028 — this is positive revenue news for storage manufacturers. 3. And the easiest to overlook: Nvidia's own Q4 gross margin guidance was cut from 75% to 71-72%, and for the first time, "debt" was separately listed as a risk factor, with debt maturing in 1-5 years surging from 2.75 billion to 15 billion. The "price hike - capacity expansion - price cut" death cycle in the storage cycle has played out countless times in history. Now SanDisk has five times the holdings within the year, and SKHY options are 70% bearish. The smart money's attitude is: catch the fish in the middle, leave the tail to others. For high Beta stocks like $xSNDK, position management is more important than opinions. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 #JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 🚨Shocking details! ETF threshold adjustment, the way institutional funds play may be changing! Many people overlook one detail: BlackRock lowered the physical redemption threshold for the $BTC ETF from $25 million to $1 million. Don't underestimate this numerical change; it could affect the future market capital structure. In the past, physical redemption of ETFs was mainly exclusive to large institutions, requiring high capital scale and limited participants. With the threshold lowered, more small and medium institutions can participate, capital flow will be more frequent, and the market rhythm may change accordingly. For $BTC, this means ETF funds are no longer just long-term holding funds; more swing funds may appear in the future. When prices rise, they will provide buying support; but when facing macroeconomic negatives or market panic, redemption speed may accelerate, and spot selling pressure will be released more quickly. The impact on $ETH may be even more obvious. Ethereum has stronger short-term capital attributes, and after the ETF participation threshold is lowered, the fast in-and-out characteristics of funds may be further amplified, increasing price volatility. So in the future, when looking at ETF data, you can't simply interpret "inflow = must rise." ETF net inflow indicates that the market has capital support, but it does not mean there is no risk of pullback. Especially during periods of intensive macro data, capital may quickly switch directions. For contract traders, ETFs are only one reference factor; never take single-day inflows as the sole basis for going long. With more institutional funds, opportunities increase, but volatility will also be more brutal.Anthropic plans to disclose its prospectus and release old stock reductions along with a lock-up period scheme exceeding 180 days after September. The core conflict lies in the impact of early cash-out signals on secondary market risk appetite versus the game of smoothing high valuation supply of computing power through long lock-up periods. The prediction market bets the probability of completing the listing before October at 86%. The primary market valuation has been pushed from $96.5 billion in May this year to public market discussions of $1 trillion or even $2 trillion expectations. The current $47 billion annualized revenue sharply contrasts with the $200 billion 2028 forward revenue projected in the prospectus. Asset pricing is entirely based on discounted future cash flows and massive computing power investment realization. The primary driving factor is the direct squeeze on institutional positions caused by the old stock unlocking structure. The second is the actual degree of computing power capital expenditure encroachment in the prospectus. The third is the macro interest rate environment suppressing forward valuation multiples. Allowing old shares to be sold alongside new shares breaks the convention of some tech giants locking old shares, which easily triggers risk-sensitive funds' caution toward early institutions locking in profits. The upside scenario trigger condition is that the prospectus confirms that the lock-up period exceeding 180 days covers the vast majority of early shares, and the disclosed $47 billion annualized revenue maintains strong year-on-year growth. At this point, the market will tend to interpret old stock sales as orderly liquidity supplementation, with institutional positions undergoing structural reorganization within the tech sector, attracting risk capital to re-enter the AI valuation chain around the late September to early October listing window. This scenario requires observing investors' willingness to sustain tech preferences in the secondary market in the coming days. The failure signal is the prospectus disclosing an unexpectedly high proportion of old stock sales or preset trading plans lacking substantive constraints. The downside scenario trigger condition is that the scale of old stock sales is too large, releasing insider exit signals, and the prospectus shows massive computing power expenditures significantly eroding operating profits. At this time, the combination of overly high valuation expectations and computing power costs will induce accelerated public market position flight to safe-haven assets, even dragging down overall risk appetite. Variables to observe include the specific capital expenditure structure disclosed in the prospectus. The failure signal is management implementing stricter equity lock-up commitments or forward revenue guidance far exceeding $200 billion. If the company ultimately delays the listing window to after early October or abandons the old stock sale mechanism in favor of pure new share issuance, all the above trading desk condition assumptions will fail. The most critical observation variables in the next 7 days are the specific timing of the prospectus public disclosure after the U.S. Labor Day on September 7 and the clearly stated old stock sale proportion and computing power capital expenditure details in the prospectus. #美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易 #财报观察员：NVIDIA beats expectations, software revenue starts to materialize, how will the US stock market move? NVIDIA's earnings report looks very impressive; not only is the hardware selling like hotcakes, but the software revenue is finally picking up, no longer relying solely on chip sales. $NVDA After hours, there was a rollercoaster ride: initially, some took profits and sold off, pushing prices down, but seeing the strong long-term outlook, funds rushed back in to push prices up again. $SNDK But don't assume that a good earnings report means the US stock market will keep rising nonstop. The entire market is now watching NVIDIA closely; if it performs well, chip and AI-related stocks benefit; if it falters, the broader market could easily be dragged down. $SKHYNIX The challenge now is that while earnings exceeded expectations, the stock price was already high, and expectations are maxed out. When good news comes out, some take the opportunity to cash out, while others see the software business materializing and remain bullish, causing a tug of war. Going forward, the US stock market is unlikely to surge in a single direction. The AI sector will be volatile, but repeated fluctuations are inevitable. One earnings report alone is unlikely to break the pattern; inflation data and the Jackson Hole speech will also play a role. Don't blindly chase highs; a good earnings report doesn't mean an immediate rise. It's common to see gains get hit after positive news is priced in. Watch more, gamble less, and wait for the market to show a clear direction. #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC THE MARKET HAS ENTERED A NEW BATTLE Bitcoin's recovery has changed the psychology of the market. We’ve moved away from the stress phase, where many holders were underwater and selling pressure was driven by fear, into a phase where a much larger share of holders is back in profit. That sounds purely bullish. But there’s another side to it. Profit creates supply. When holders were sitting at losses, there was little incentive to sell. Now that BTC has recovered, investors who waited through the drawdown suddenly have the opportunity to lock in profits or exit at breakeven. So the question isn't simply whether Bitcoin has enough buyers. The question is whether new demand can absorb the supply coming from existing holders. 🟠 THIS IS WHERE ETF DEMAND MATTERS Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important source of demand during this cycle. If institutional flows continue while long-term holders distribute gradually, the market can potentially absorb that supply without destroying the bullish structure. That's a much healthier setup than a market where everyone is simply refusing to sell. A strong market doesn't need zero selling. It needs strong enough demand to absorb the selling. 📈 ABSORPTION → EXPANSION? The current phase could therefore become a major test. If BTC continues holding its key levels despite increasing profit-taking, that would suggest buyers are successfully absorbing available supply. That could eventually create the conditions for another expansion. But if selling starts overwhelming demand, Bitcoin may need more time to consolidate before the next move. Neither outcome should be surprising. After a strong recovery, some profit-taking is completely normal. 👀 THE SIGNAL I'M WATCHING I don't want to predict the next candle. I'd rather watch how Bitcoin behaves when sellers actually appear. Strong selling + strong price = absorption. Strong selling + weakening price = distribution risk. That's the distinction that matters. Bitcoin being back in profit is not automatically bearish. 🟠 $BTC FROM STRESS TO ABSORPTION Bitcoin's market structure appears to be moving into a different phase. After the recent recovery, a large portion of holders are back in profit. That's important because the market dynamics change when investors move from “I need to survive” to “I can finally take profit.” During the stress phase, selling is often driven by fear and forced decisions. Now, with more holders back in profit, forced selling pressure can decrease. But there's a trade-off. Profitable holders now have a reason to sell. Some investors who bought higher may use the recovery to exit at breakeven. Others may take partial profits after a strong move. That creates a potential supply overhang around current levels. 📊 THE NEXT TEST IS DEMAND This is where fresh capital becomes critical. If new demand continues entering the market and consistently absorbs the coins being sold by existing holders, Bitcoin can continue transitioning from absorption into expansion. But if profit-taking becomes stronger than new demand, the rally could lose momentum and enter another consolidation or correction. That's why I'm paying close attention to the relationship between: Holder profitability → potential selling ETF flows → fresh demand Price structure → confirmation The ETF side is particularly important because sustained institutional demand could provide the liquidity required to absorb profit-taking. 👀 WHAT I'M WATCHING A healthy market doesn't necessarily mean nobody is selling. In fact, strong bull markets often have plenty of sellers. The difference is that buyers are strong enough to absorb them. If BTC continues holding key support while demand remains consistent, profit-taking could simply become part of the market's normal rotation. But if price starts breaking important support while holder selling accelerates, the expansion thesis becomes weaker. So I'm not looking at profitable holders as purely bearish. Their selling can actually be a sign of a maturing market provided there is enough fresh demand waiting on the other side.

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