Orbit Post Sitemap
If an account suddenly shows an extra 2,000 bitcoins, don’t quit your job just yet. The first thing isn’t to calculate how much a yacht costs, but to check whether this wealth actually landed on the blockchain or if the exchange backend mistakenly clicked “Bitcoin” instead of “Korean won.” The Korean exchange Bithumb had this kind of absurd incident back in February this year. A referral reward originally meant to give 2,000 Korean won to each of 695 users was mistakenly entered with the unit BTC. The backend instantly “created” a total of 620,000 bitcoins, with a book value exceeding 40 billion USD at the time—far more exaggerated than the amount that could realistically be delivered. The exchange discovered the problem about 20 minutes later, restricted transactions and withdrawals on the related accounts within 35 minutes, and eventually reversed about 99.7% of the erroneous entries before any trades occurred; official statements said none of these bitcoins were transferred to external wallets. In other words, it wasn’t that 620,000 BTC suddenly appeared on-chain, but that the centralized database temporarily recorded a mountain of nonexistent gold. The story has recently developed further. The Seoul Central District Court issued first-instance rulings on August 26 and 27 on two unjust enrichment lawsuits, supporting the exchange’s recovery of part of the proceeds from the mistakenly sold balances, involving amounts of approximately 4.99 million and 19.4 million Korean won respectively. Two other cases have yet to be decided, so these two rulings cannot be taken as the final resolution of all cases. What I find funniest and most cautionary about this incident is how clearly it demonstrated “what an exchange balance really is.”【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series 52】
7.8 months after exiting the 2019 bear bottom: The bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 1.5-month trading window (ignoring the 3/12 black swan event)
7.2 months after exiting the 2023 bear bottom: The bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 2.2-month trading window
It has been 0.25 months since exiting the bear bottom this cycle
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The indicators in the chart are bull market top escape & bear market bottom buying models developed based on Bitcoin VDD, Median Price, and multiple bear bottom right-side confirmation indicators$TRUMP hôm nay tiếp tục gây chú ý khi bật mạnh lên vùng $2.9, trước khi nhanh chóng bị kéo ngược về quanh $2.7. Nhưng điều đáng nói không nằm ở vài chục cent biến động, mà nằm ở lượng tiền đang chạy phía sau cú tăng này. Volume giao dịch 24h đã tăng lên khoảng $1,5 tỷ trên thị trường futures, trong khi spot khoảng $296 triệu. OI cũng ở quanh $230 triệu. Điều này cho thấy cuộc chơi hiện tại đang được dẫn dắt rất mạnh bởi thị trường phái sinh, chứ chưa thể xem đây đơn thuần là dòng tiền spot đang 【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series 52】
7.8 months after exiting the 2019 bear bottom: The bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 1.5-month trading window (ignoring the 3/12 black swan event)
7.2 months after exiting the 2023 bear bottom: The bull market recovery phase ended, the market probed the last pullback bottoming range before the main rise, creating an excellent 2.2-month trading window
It has been 0.25 months since exiting the bear bottom this cycle
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
The indicators in the chart are bull market top escape & bear market bottom buying models developed based on Bitcoin VDD, Median Price, and multiple bear bottom right-side confirmation indicatorsRecently, the number of x402 transactions hit a new high, exceeding 2 million transactions in a single day
Most transactions occur on the Solana network, with the majority handled by PayAI and Figment
Most of these transactions are categorized as Infra & Utilities. The driving force behind this is the server provider Blockrun, which can be understood as an OpenRouter for Agents, charging per use, with one entry point connected to dozens of large AI models
Although the x402 transaction volume is very low, with daily transaction amounts only in the tens of thousands of dollars and an average transaction cost of less than $0.015, it is still quite niche from the perspective of payment networks, but relatively less important for Facilitators
For example, with PayAI, BlockRun is the actual paying seller. Currently, PayAI charges $0.001 per transaction to the server, and with over a million transactions processed daily, the revenue is approximately $1,000+/dayAfter $BTC surpassed 80,000, the market actually quieted down.
The most interesting question now isn't whether Bitcoin can still rise, but rather—why are both bulls and bears reluctant to make the first move at the 80,000 USD level?
BTC is currently fluctuating around 79,600 USD, having reached a high of 81,500 USD and a low of 78,600 USD in the past 24 hours. After breaking above 80,000, there was no obvious volume breakout nor a rapid drop back to key support, indicating that short-term funds are entering a very typical "waiting for confirmation" phase.
After yesterday's PCE release, the core data basically met market expectations without triggering new inflation shocks, so the market did not show a clear directional choice.
But this doesn't mean there's nothing to trade; rather, the real variable that will determine the next direction hasn't materialized yet.
On one hand, this recent Bitcoin rally has accumulated considerable profit-taking, and 80,000 USD is a very clear psychological integer barrier. Consolidating after the surge to digest positions is actually a healthy phenomenon.
On the other hand, short-term support has formed around 78,000–79,000 USD, so bears would need stronger macro catalysts to break through directly.
So, I tend to interpret the current market as:
There are profit-taking positions above, support below, and what's missing is a big enough piece of news to break the balance.
And this variable is very likely to come tonight.
The Jackson Hole Symposium is underway, and the market is really focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech. Compared to ordinary economic data, the importance of this speech lies in its potential to influence market repricing of future interest rate paths, inflation, and the financial environment. Previously, Warsh's communication was cautious, with insufficient policy forward guidance, which caused noticeable volatility in the bond market.
So tonight, don't just focus on the words "rate cut" or "no rate cut."
What really matters are three things:
First, his stance on inflation.
If he emphasizes that inflation remains stubborn and tight policy must be maintained, then if the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise, BTC could face short-term pressure.
Second, whether he signals a future policy shift.
If his wording is clearly dovish, the market might reprice easing expectations, giving risk assets including BTC a chance for a second wave of gains.
Third, whether BTC can see volume expansion after the speech.
This is actually more important than just price movement.
If after the news BTC quickly breaks above 81,500 with volume increasing simultaneously, then 80,000 could shift from a "resistance level" to a new support zone, and the next focus would be 82,000–83,000.
But if it surges then quickly falls back below 80,000, or even breaks 78,600, then this breakout should be treated cautiously as a false breakout plus profit-taking.
Therefore, at this stage, I actually don't recommend blindly chasing longs just because BTC has surpassed 80,000.
The real opportunity is not guessing the direction but waiting for the direction to reveal itself.
Whether BTC can hold above 80,000 will determine if this rebound continues to expand or enters a larger-scale consolidation phase.
The biggest risk tonight isn't no market movement, but that the market moves too fast and leverage gets wiped out first.
So at this stage:
BTC not breaking key support means no need to be overly pessimistic about the trend for now;
But without a volume breakout, there's no need to treat the consolidation as a main upward wave.
Tonight, watch Warsh's speech. What really decides the market is what he says and, more importantly, how the market trades after hearing it.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Walsh's first Jackson Hole keynote arrives with the Fed's trade-off unusually exposed: core PCE remains above 2%, yet initial jobless claims have fallen to 203K. With Schmid and Hammack emphasizing inflation risks, the key signal is not a single policy preference but whether Walsh defines a repeatable reaction function.
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest The annual jacksonHOLE conference.
Remember in 2022, BTC plummeted, continuously falling until the labor data release.
In 2023, BTC and ETH were in a suppressed state for the quarter.
On August 23, 2024, both ETH and BTC saw rapid increases, with altcoins like SUI, WIF, and PEPE soaring over 40%.
On August 22, 2025, ETH rebounded 18% that day, surging.
This is what makes this conference remarkable.
What about today's meeting? Since it's Warsh's debut (a fireside chat aimed at global central bank peers), it is bound to be full of highlights.
Considering Warsh is still using the new position of Federal Reserve FOMC Chair, it is highly likely the discussion will continue the line of thought from July 29. Therefore, dovish voices will exceed 50%.
Therefore: if ETH falls below 2450 today, just keep playing the long game.One of last year's most popular tech scare stories was that AI agents would wipe out SaaS companies entirely. Workday's latest earnings report offers a less romantic answer: to work with large enterprises, AI might still have to pay rent to the old software first. The company reported $2.649 billion in revenue for Q2, up 12.8% year-over-year; subscription revenue was $2.471 billion, up 13.9%. More strikingly, AI has already contributed over a quarter of the new annual contract value signed, with more than 5,500 customers using its self-developed agents, a quarter-over-quarter increase of over 35%. The company also said that more than half of new customers this quarter signed at least one AI solution. This set of numbers doesn't disprove AI, but rather the notion that "once the model is smart, enterprise software will disappear on the spot." Consumers can switch chat tools today, but enterprises can't just move payroll, budgets, audit permissions, and employee records all at once tomorrow morning. Whoever controls clean data, approval chains, and accountability records holds the real ticket for AI to enter the company. The model is like an engine; systems like Workday are more like roads, toll booths, and traffic rules. The engine is certainly important, but it can't decide on its own who has the authority to change payroll. Therefore, the smartest defense for established SaaS companies isn't to compete with large models on who chats better, but to embed agents into existing workflows and then sell customers the "permissions to safely take action." AI hasn't bypassed software subscriptions; instead, it has temporarily become an add-on. However, this still cannot be declared $UNITREE National Development and Reform Commission: Developing the robotics industry must be adapted to local conditions to prevent blind following and herd behavior
Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at the NDRC's regular press conference in August that the robotics industry involves many cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and new materials. Development must be adapted to local conditions, proceed in a healthy and orderly manner, be based on local resource endowments and industrial advantages, find the right positioning, leverage strengths, and prevent blind following and herd behavior, effectively promoting steady and long-term development of related industries.
The tone has already been set above: toys are just toys and still immature, so $UNITREE's IPO is the peak of the bubble; what follows is the bubble bursting. At the national level, capital frenzy will also be controlled. For parasitic entities like $UNITREE, this is not good. Another cut is coming, first seeing 300 RMB!Treating a whale that failed to short 17 times but suddenly profited as a market reversal signal is a common misconception. This illustrates that on-chain behavior noise is far more complex than trend judgment.
2) What is noise and what is useful: Profiting after 17 failed short attempts is an individual behavior and does not constitute a market direction signal. The Sparrow update did not involve user asset exposure, and AI fixes do not equal security upgrades. The rise in cybersecurity stocks reflects increased institutional risk appetite but has no direct transmission path to crypto asset prices.
The bullish side: Strengthening cybersecurity stocks may reflect an overall warming of risk appetite and could support long-term confidence in decentralized infrastructure. The bearish side: A whale’s single profitable operation may just be a strategy adjustment and cannot prove a market sentiment reversal, lacking sustained data verification.
What to continue monitoring: On-chain capital flows and liquidation risks still need observation. Only if large net outflows or protocol-level attack events occur later will a true risk reassessment be triggered. Currently, none of the events have formed verifiable systemic risks or fundamental turning points.
For informational and market scenario analysis only, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and manage risks.$BTC $ETH Gold closed near 4590 last night. Analysts have already set a target of 5000. Gold and ETF inflows hit record highs, maxing safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, BTC is repeatedly tugging around 80,000, forming a sharp contrast. This signal is worth considering. Gold and BTC are both fighting for the same batch of safe-haven funds, but gold is driven by fear of inflation and geopolitics, while BTC is driven by fear of fiat currency depreciation. When gold ETFs are aggressively absorbing funds, it shows that large funds are more defensive. For high-risk assets like BTC, it's not friendly in the short term. $SNDK is not friendly in the short term but also has another interpretation. The overall strength of safe-haven assets actually shows that fiat currency credit is being questioned. In the long run, BTC is positive. Short-term defense and long-term positive — it depends on which time dimension you judge. Gold and BTC are not on the same path but have the same destination. The direction is right, control the pace. #Walsh appears tonight, Jackson Hole, can the policy framework be clarified? #财报观察员: AI demand is spreading from hardware to software #BTC冲高回落, with options expiring and experiencing the battle at the threshold Temporary shipping lanes sound like bad news for oil prices, but the energy market isn't that easy to sway
Iran and Iraq have finalized temporary shipping lanes, which can indeed ease some transportation anxiety in the short term. Whether ships can sail, insurance can cover, ports can receive, and buyers dare to sign long-term contracts—these details matter more than the news headlines
The US has tightened sanctions on Iran, putting another hand on the supply chain's neck. The result is the market trading "channel restoration" on one side, while still hesitant to completely eliminate risk premiums
I think the hardest part about trading oil prices is this: it's not a pure commodity, but more like a global supply chain thermometer. Cooling down today doesn't mean it won't spike tomorrow. In inflation trading, energy is always the variable most likely to suddenly turn against you
#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 Today, about $6.44 billion worth of $BTC options expire, with the maximum pain point near $68,000, while the spot price remains around $80,000.
Here, the most common misconception is that the maximum pain point is a price prediction or that BTC must drop to $68,000. What truly matters is that a large volume of option settlements and rollovers may force market makers to concentrate on adjusting hedge positions, amplifying intraday volatility.
If BTC can hold $80,000 after settlement, it indicates that ETF and spot buying are sufficient to absorb derivative fluctuations; if there is a rapid spike and drop, it may be due to the combined effect of hedging funds and profit-taking.
The most important thing today is not to guess the price direction but to observe whether real buying remains after option settlement.
Do you think $80,000 will become support or continue to act as resistance after settlement?
$BTC
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 My SPCX perpetual contract grid ran for more than a day, and the account gave me a lesson. The data is: grid arbitrage profit -0.0181 USDT, unpaired profit -0.0722 USDT, total profit -0.0540 USDT (-0.30%).
At first, I was a bit confused by these three numbers: the grid was clearly making money, so why was the total profit negative? Later, I understood what "unpaired profit" means — every time the grid completes a trade, it leaves some unsold positions that fluctuate with the market price. I was running a long grid, and when the price dropped slightly, those "unpaired" long positions incurred floating losses. The small amount earned from grid arbitrage couldn't cover the directional floating loss.
This is a key insight for beginners: when looking at a grid, don't just look at "arbitrage count" and "grid profit" turning green and assume you're making money. You must look at "total profit" because total profit = grid arbitrage + unpaired floating. In a sideways market, small grid gains and small directional losses are normal; don't be fooled by the apparent number of grid trades. If the price keeps moving against your grid, the unpaired floating loss will keep growing, and eventually, the hard-earned grid profits won't be enough to cover it. My example is a live case: arbitrage +0.1%, total profit -0.3%, the difference is that unpaired long position.
@OKX成长学院
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 The overall atmosphere in the US tech stock market has visibly cooled down recently.
The previously hot storage sector has experienced a significant collective pullback. This is no longer a minor fluctuation in individual stocks but a synchronized pressure across the entire sector.
Core storage stocks like SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix have all seen noticeable declines. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also closed sharply lower, and the Nasdaq has recorded seven consecutive down days. It’s clear that many investors are actively reducing their risk exposure and choosing to move to safer assets.
The shift in capital is also very clear. After risk appetite declined, funds began flowing into safe-haven assets. Gold has firmly held above 4700, and Bitcoin has also risen in tandem. The growth sector is being sold off while safe-haven assets strengthen, directly reflecting the current market divergence.
At present, most investors are waiting and watching. The short-term market direction largely hinges on two upcoming major events.
Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings report will serve as a real test for the hot AI sector. The market is closely watching this report to gauge the true demand level in the AI industry and to see if the previously hyped high expectations can be supported by actual performance.
Friday’s Jackson Hole speech will deliver signals about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and its statements will directly influence the pricing of various global assets.
The storage sector’s early sell-off is also the market’s way of pricing in unknown risks in advance. In such a volatile phase, there’s no need to rush in to bottom-fish, as many key outcomes have yet to materialize. Jackson Hole Night: 7 Quick Comments
Quick Review 1:
At 22:00 Beijing time, Wash took the Jackson Hole podium.
This is no ordinary speech—it's a "resurrection match" for the Fed's credibility.
In the past month, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly broke through 5.34%, the highest since 2007. The Treasury repurchased twice, each time #works for three days, then yields rebounded again #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Trump mentioned $MU again. Don't chase it yet, break down the numbers.
1️⃣ The "$10 billion lab" he mentioned is not a new order today. Micron announced on 8/20 that it's a decade-long investment, starting construction in 2027, a research hub, not immediate capacity expansion.
2️⃣ The real big commitment is the over $250 billion US manufacturing pledge by 2035, aiming for about 40% domestic DRAM production. The policy focuses on this, not the headline.
3️⃣ Trump has called Micron the "hottest company" multiple times this year; it still dropped sharply on the day in July. Naming can stir sentiment but can't change priced-in expectations.
4️⃣ After today's mention, $MU still fell. The market cares about memory prices, HBM market share, and next quarter guidance, not slogans.
5️⃣ Conclusion: Long-term, US memory reshoring is still promising; short-term, treat "Trump naming" as noise. Without seeing contract price or guidance upgrades, don't use political tweets as buy signals.
$MU #Micron #Semiconductor #AIChip #HBM #Trump #USStocks #midu- The TRUMP meme coin surged from $1.37 to $3.60 (+93%), then on-chain data showed wallets linked to Trump transferred $6.2 million to OKX at the peak.
- Throughout this year, every time TRUMP coin rallied, the team cashed out through liquidity pools, cumulatively transferring over $23 million to exchanges.
- On August 22, rumors spread that "Trump was going to launch a new coin on the Robinhood chain," causing TRUMP to spike 75%. His son Eric denied it, but the team took advantage of the surge to withdraw another $3.39 million.
- In 2025, Trump's entity is expected to earn $1.4 billion from crypto business revenue, including $636 million from TRUMP coin licensing fees and $526 million from World Liberty Financial.
- 80% of TRUMP coin's supply is held by entities linked to Trump, unlocking over three years until January 2028. Every rally is their window to sell.
- 98% of TRUMP coin buyers are at a loss, with a total unrealized loss of $3.8 billion.
He holds summits at the White House to hype → policy expectations pump the price → his wallets quietly sell → retail investors take the losses. If this isn't market manipulation, what is?
But for you, this is actually a certainty — **Trump has a strong incentive to boost the crypto market during his term** because he is one of the biggest players. Holding your spot coins without moving is like hitching a ride with him. But never touch TRUMP coin itself, which he controls — that's just pure chart manipulation.If it surges higher, it plunges! Options expire, and the hidden game is stirring up the market
Latest data
$BTC surged and fell back to around 80,360, ETH 2495, SOL $105.8. Large options expired convergently, with chips clustered at strike prices. Recently, false breakouts and rapid spikes have increased significantly, and volatility has been directly amplified by derivatives.
Market consensus
Many people mistake the pullback for the exhaustion of bullish forces, but a large part is actually market makers passively adjusting their hedging positions. Bulls and bears are fiercely trading at key price levels, with the short-term #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest 2026 Jackson Hole | Key Observations from Wash's Speech Part Three (Continued)
3. Three Scenarios and Approximate Asset Reactions (For Reference Only, Not for Trading Decisions)
Scenario Core Speech Content Approximate Market Reaction
Above Expectations Hawkish Emphasis on Inflation Warning, Clearly Retaining Rate Hike Space USD Strengthens, US Treasury Yields Rise; Stocks, Gold, and Crypto Under Pressure and Decline
Below Expectations Dovish Concern over Weakening Employment, Inflation Pressure Eases USD Weakens, Yields Decline; Risk Assets Rebound and Rise
Neutral (Most Likely) No Clear Rate Guidance, More Talk on Financial Innovation, Everything Depends on Data Initially Volatile, Then Returns to Pricing US Economic Data.
4. Additional Minor Focus Points
The theme of this meeting is financial innovation: its impact on payments and policy. Pay attention to statements on stablecoins, digital payments, and financial regulation, which will directly affect sentiment in the crypto sector.
Views on the rise of long-term US Treasury yields and whether liquidity issues in the US Treasury market will be discussed.
After the speech, monitor the Fed's official website for the transcript, which is more accurate than real-time interpretation. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 🚨 THE CAPITAL ROTATION IS GETTING LOUDER
Nearly $100M reportedly flowed into Bitwise ETPs in the U.S. today — and the allocation is telling.
🥇 $SOL — ~$40M
🥈 $BTC — ~$22M
🥉 $HYPE — ~$20M
4️⃣ $XRP — ~$12M
5️⃣ $ETH — ~$1.4M
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Why did many people miss out this year, not buying any spot below 60k in June-July, still thinking about the "last dip"? Why do they still not believe that the market is currently on the path of reversal? Because most people are stubbornly comparing it to the 2022 and 2018 bear markets, generally believing that the 2026 bear market will be the same as the previous two and will start in January next year.
In fact, this bear market operates very differently from before. This time, two main down waves were completed in one go, and the final wave fluctuated the least, which fits the characteristics of the tail end of each bear market. Previously, bear markets were drawn out wave by wave, lasting a whole year. June 30 this year is equivalent to November 21, 2022 (the ultimate low of 15443 in 2022). This time, after about 48 days of sideways consolidation at the bottom, there was a sudden breakout. After November 21, 2022, there was also about 48 days of sideways consolidation at the bottom before a breakout on January 1, 2023.
In June-July, I kept reminding that the monthly MACD had already returned to the zero line; how could it possibly fall to a lower position? It's like a plane has already landed—can it still dig underground?
Actually, the signal that the bear market ended at the end of June was not very obvious for BTC; the clearest signals were from SOL and ETH.
Now is the time to cherish this opportunity for a pullback. The pace of the world is getting faster and faster, and opportunities often slip away in your hesitation.I'm Ci Ge. Shorting BTC at 81,000 is not a random draw but an overlapping area of technical, macro, and chip structure. What does 81,000 mean? BTC climbed from 63,000 to above 81,000 in a week, up nearly 30%, marking the strongest weekly performance in recent years. 81,000 is the lower boundary of the dense supply zone pointed out by Glassnode. The 81,000 to $86,000 range is a dense supply zone, with many holders starting to return to a break-even range. Once they break even, they may choose to cash out, accumulating supply pressure above. Technical analysis also clearly points out that 81,000 to 81,300 is the first major supply zone, and the price is approaching a critical test. Can buyers turn this psychological level into real support? Technical signals: The $80,000 to $82,000 range includes recent highs and leveraged position concentrations, potentially becoming a zone of sharp two-way volatility. The price may reverse after breaking the recent high to trigger short liquidations, or accelerate upward through the liquidity zone, so the reaction after the breakout is more important than the candlestick itself. At 81,000, both bearish and bullish scenarios coexist, but the margin of safety for short selling is accumulating. K33 research shows that this rally includes the largest single-day short squeeze in recorded history, with futures open interest subsequently declining. Short covering was a key driver of previous gains. The short squeeze effect is weakening. Whether ETF and spot buyers can continue to absorb high-level selling orders depends on the nature of the marketHe understands marketing; when the market is at its hottest and he has the highest attention, he switched to tokenomics and immediately surged 30%.
1. ENA's core product is USDe, a synthetic yield stablecoin, with its source of income being BTC/ETH perpetual contract basis-based arbitrage, so it is known in the industry as the "bull market leader."
Because when the bull market arrives, funds flood into crypto, perpetual contract premiums and funding rates rise, → USDe yields increase→ ENA protocol's TVL and revenue rise rapidly→ ENA's price surges.
2. Riding the wave of market recovery, the Ethena Foundation optimized its tokenomics: buying back locked tokens held by early investors, aligning tokens further with equity value, launching a governance proposal for revenue buybacks of ENA, and canceling future monthly VC investor unlocks #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Brother Panda's post explains the logic of adding positions mid-way through the Bitcoin bull market very clearly.
Many people get especially anxious after missing the bottom, or even though they've noticed that quite a few altcoins have already shown very distinctive bear-to-bull transition signals recently, they still feel uncertain and insist on waiting for a more confirmed right-side trend before making a move.
Actually, there's no need to rush and be anxious about gains or losses right now. Looking back at history, whether in 2019 or 2023, about 7 months after breaking away from the bear bottom, the recovery phase usually ends with a sharp deep correction, providing a 1.5 to 2.2 month window for bottoming. That is the most thorough shakeout before the main upward wave and also the most certain entry point.
This current market cycle has just left the bottom less than a month ago, so there is plenty of time ahead. For friends who still have doubts about the trend, you can completely hold your bullets and wait patiently for this mid-cycle deep squat to create a hitting zone. Enter after the pullback and bottoming are complete, which balances certainty and doesn't miss out on the full main upward wave.最近美股AI板块的叙事逻辑，正在悄悄发生一次转向。过去很长一段时间里，市场对AI的热情更像是一场对未来的提前投票，大家追逐芯片、相信故事，只要算力叙事足够性感，股价便可以先跑起来。但眼下，风向似乎变了，资金开始变得务实，甚至有些“较真”——它开始追问：AI到底有没有变成实实在在的订单和现金流？ 这种情绪转变，在最新一轮财报季里体现得相当明显。英伟达依然交出了超出预期的成绩单，算力需求的强劲程度没有让市场失望。但更值得留意的细节在于，AI的风，似乎正从最上游的芯片，慢慢吹向软件层和安全层。这或许意味着，市场对AI的定价逻辑，正在从“谁在造芯片”过渡到“谁在靠AI赚钱”。 Salesforce的最新季度营收达到了113.5亿美元，同比增长11%，并且上调了全年指引。其中Agentforce和Data 360相关业务增长明显，这组数据背后透露出一个信号：企业客户开始愿意为AI的实际应用场景买单了。不再是停留在PPT层面的“AI战略”，而是真金白银地采购、部署，把AI嵌入到日常运营当中。 同样值得关注的还有CrowdStrike。它季度营收14.7亿美元，同比增长26%，新增年度经常性收入创下#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Tonight is Wash's debut at Jackson Hole, and the data is already on the table. The US July PCE year-on-year is 3.7%, and the PCE excluding food and energy is 3.3%, still some distance from the 2% policy target. Initial jobless claims have fallen back to 203,000, showing both inflation stickiness and employment resilience, making policy decisions naturally more difficult to make.
What the market is waiting for now is whether Wash is willing to clarify the reaction rules for the coming months. Fiscal pressure, long-term interest rates, and inflation stickiness are all intertwined. If the speech remains vague, the range of US Treasury yields may widen, volatility in the dollar and long bonds may increase, and gold and Bitcoin will trade along with the sentiment.
From a Bitcoin trader's perspective, I am not in a hurry to bet on direction. Jackson Hole often amplifies expectations, but crashes usually happen when the market has already bet one-sidedly and the speech gives a contrary answer. Now BTC is tugging repeatedly around $80,000, digesting macro expectations on one side and waiting for the Fed to provide a clearer rhythm on the other.
I will watch two signals closely: how Wash sets the tone on inflation and interest rate paths, and where US Treasury yields and the dollar move after the meeting. Digital payments and stablecoins can be noted, but don't jump to conclusions early. Even if Bitcoin remains stuck in a range short-term, the long-term narrative will accumulate bit by bit in policy discussions. Macro trading fears most misreading uncertainty as certainty. Act when the market gives an opportunity; if not, patiently wait for $BTC
(This is only personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)🚨 Bitcoin is undergoing a structural change that many people haven't realized yet.
In past bear markets, when the bottom was truly near, a very classic signal would appear:
Massive miner capitulation.
Machines shutting down, forced coin sales, cash flow collapse, and even the entire mining industry entering a survival crisis.
This was especially evident in the 2022 bear market, where the chart was almost entirely filled with "miner capitulation" signals.
But interestingly—
In this bear market, Bitcoin's maximum drop from the peak was about 55%, yet it never experienced the brutal full-scale miner capitulation seen at the bottoms of previous bear markets.
Why?
Because today's Bitcoin is no longer the Bitcoin of the past.
With ETFs, publicly listed companies, Wall Street institutions, pensions, and traditional financial capital entering the market,
BTC is gradually becoming more "institutionalized and stock-like."
This could bring a very important long-term change:
👉 Bear market drawdowns may gradually narrow
👉 Traditional four-year cycles may start to blur
👉 Miner cost zones may become increasingly difficult to break below for extended periods
👉 The severe -80%, -85% bear markets of the past may no longer repeatedly occur
Don't forget:
In past bull markets, BTC even experienced huge corrections close to 60%, yet still went on to set new all-time highs.
So if one day in the future,
The market again sees a true large-scale miner capitulation, and BTC falls back to or even below miner cost prices...
I actually wouldn't panic then.The AI Dollar Era Is Coming
Tomorrow at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, the new Federal Reserve Chair, Wash, will use Jackson Hole—the world's most watched stage—to announce to the world that the U.S. is about to transition from the post-WWII Bretton Woods 2.0 petrodollar era, which he himself led, to an AI-anchored AI digital dollar era. Are you ready?
The theme of this year's Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is financial innovation and its impact on payments and policy, marking the first time private tokens and programmable money are included in the top-level discussions of global central banks. This discussion is set against the backdrop of the recent Middle East conflict where the U.S. failed in its military actions against Iran, yet continues to shout about imposing the harshest sanctions on Iran and kicking it out of the dollar system. This spectacle has long lost its threat under the petrodollar system. Domestically, the U.S. is heavily indebted; the U.S. federal debt has just surpassed $40 trillion, and the 10-year Treasury yield has broken above 4.7%, reaching a 20-year high. This paints a picture of a dollar hegemony on the brink of collapse.
For a long time, dollar hegemony relied on exporting the petrodollar, then attracting dollar inflows through U.S. Treasury bonds and U.S. stock capital markets domestically, while overseas central banks held U.S. Treasuries to complete a closed loop of currency exchange and value storage. Global funds smoothly flowed from trade back into the Treasury bond reservoir, supporting the massive U.S. government debt. Now, with U.S. debt exceeding $40 trillion, global central banks are increasingly reluctant to hold U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, with the rise of AI bonds, Japanese bonds, and U.S. bonds competing for the same limited pool of funds, global bond yields continue to rise. Recent data shows the proportion of U.S. Treasuries held by global central banks has dropped from 60% to 55%, while Treasury auction prices keep climbing. The U.S. urgently needs to find new reservoirs of funds to absorb the expanding debt supply and lower debt costs. At this point, the Federal Reserve’s focus shifts from traditional money market funds and global central banks to innovative areas like dollar stablecoins and AI payments.
In the past year, the U.S. has urgently revised a series of cryptocurrency payment regulatory frameworks, requiring stablecoin reserve assets to be allocated in short-term, highly liquid U.S. Treasuries. The expansion of stablecoin scale can continuously provide buying power for U.S. Treasuries. When global users purchase stablecoins for online cross-chain and cross-border payments, they are effectively buying the underlying reserve assets—U.S. Treasuries. This completes a new cycle: dollar export, on-chain payments, and Treasury inflows. This not only alleviates pressure on the Treasury market but also forms a new dollar-centered settlement network in the digital world. Institutions predict this scale will reach the trillion-dollar level.
Of course, relying solely on stablecoins is not enough to upgrade the entire dollar system; this is where the AI wave comes in. We all know AI agents have autonomous decision-making, trading, settlement, and payment capabilities. Traditional banks struggle to adapt to these borderless, high-frequency, 24/7 automated scenarios. Blockchain stablecoins have inherent advantages: they are programmable, can settle promptly, and are borderless, making them the natural payment medium for AI agents. This creates a new cycle of computing power consumption, AI service payments, stablecoin settlements, and finally, dollar reserves. This is the new AI dollar or computing power dollar system the U.S. aims to build. In the future, global AI computing power token purchases and intelligent agent commercial activities can rely on dollar stablecoins for on-chain payments, evolving the dollar’s use case from person-to-person today to person-to-machine and machine-to-machine interactions tomorrow.
Of course, this new mechanism is not without vulnerabilities. Transforming stablecoins into a new reservoir for U.S. Treasuries also introduces new risks. As we know, the crypto assets backing stablecoins are among the most volatile in the financial system. Rapid price fluctuations will inevitably impact the reserve assets behind stablecoins, i.e., U.S. Treasury prices, potentially causing significant volatility that could quickly spread globally through the on-chain payment network. Meanwhile, AI-driven automated trading will pose new challenges to traditional monetary policy transmission and on-chain payment regulation, placing new demands on the Federal Reserve. If you consider that the Fed just established five new reform working groups in July, you can understand the significance behind all this. The new Fed Chair Wash has invited over a dozen top global advisors, including former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and renowned Silicon Valley investor Marc Andreessen. Their collective appearance signals a key agenda: the impact of AI on productivity and how the U.S. financial system will adapt its regulation and policy to the AI era.
This global central bank meeting is different from traditional ones; it is no longer just about interest rate hikes or cuts. The perspective is elevated again. It represents a new strategic plan by the U.S. and the Federal Reserve for the dollar hegemony over the next several decades, even the next 100 years. The U.S. is attempting to use new payment tools to build a new reservoir for its high debt through the crypto system, while leveraging the AI + crypto technology wave to extend the dollar system into the digital realm, shifting dollar hegemony from traditional physical trade to a new AI-driven digital economy. For China and other global economies, it is crucial to closely monitor this meeting and the Fed’s new moves to understand how this new system will form, as it will become the new main axis of global financial competition for decades to come.
The above is a personal viewpoint and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of risks. It's getting serious! Blockchain is ready to start disrupting the financial industry
Two signals point to the same destination
In the past two days, there have been two noteworthy messages in the financial market:
· Japan is preparing to use blockchain to restructure the settlement infrastructure for stocks and government bonds;
· The BankChain Alliance, formed by banking associations from 39 U.S. states, plans to launch its own blockchain network for the banking industry around 2027.
On the surface, these are fintech projects from two different countries, but together they point to the same trend:
Blockchain is accelerating its transformation into a crucial component of traditional financial infrastructure.
Japan: Transforming capital market settlement methods
According to Japanese media, the Financial Services Agency, the central bank, and other institutions plan to establish a research group this year to study blockchain-based payment infrastructure and formulate specific plans around early 2027.
If ultimately approved, the system could be operational as early as the early 2030s. Its core goals are:
· Stock trading: T+2 → real-time settlement
· Government bond trading: T+1 → real-time settlement
The truly important aspect here is not just that Japan is starting to use blockchain, but that blockchain is entering the most core clearing and settlement segment of securities trading.
In the traditional financial system, trading, clearing, and settlement are completed by different institutions, with significant time gaps requiring extensive reconciliation and fund transfers.
Blockchain’s advantage lies in enabling the capital chain to update synchronously within the same verifiable ledger system.
If stocks, government bonds, and payment assets all become on-chain in the future, then once a transaction is completed, assets and funds will be delivered simultaneously without waiting one or two days.
U.S. Banks: Transforming currency and payment layers
BankChain represents another route.
An alliance of thousands of banks plans to build a blockchain network owned and designed by banks, aiming to launch it in 2027, supporting:
· Smart payments
· Tokenized deposits
· Stablecoins
· Automated settlement
The alliance is currently selecting technology partners.
What’s most notable here is: banks building their own chain.
In recent years, banks have had mixed feelings about blockchain. On one hand, they worry that stablecoins and crypto assets might disrupt traditional deposit business; on the other hand, they recognize blockchain can reduce costs for payments, clearing, and cross-border settlement.
The emergence of BankChain shows a shift in banks’ attitudes—they want to turn deposits into on-chain assets but are reluctant to fully hand over payment infrastructure to crypto-native companies.
Different paths, same destination: the financial system is being rewritten
Japan and the U.S. are heading toward the same endpoint, just via different paths.
Japan’s entry point is capital market settlement, with the core action being shortening settlement cycles to real-time, a national-level infrastructure overhaul. The U.S. BankChain’s entry point is the currency and payment layer, focusing on on-chain deposits, stablecoins, and smart payments, an industry alliance’s independent construction.
If these two routes proceed smoothly, the future financial system will be revolutionized—assets and currency will no longer be just simple digital forms but programmable assets defined by code.
Conclusion
Although large-scale implementation is still some way off, at least one thing is clear:
Blockchain’s biggest competitor may no longer be traditional finance—after all, traditional finance itself is becoming blockchain’s biggest beneficiary.
The crypto industry has long discussed how to bring real-world assets on-chain; now it seems this transformation is truly accelerating.
And we have been waiting for more than a decade.
#银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 Watch for caution tonight when Waller speaks, it's best to take profits and beware of a peak!
The market is voting on the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation credibility. What's more interesting is that before Waller even speaks, his colleagues seem to have already inadvertently revealed his stance. Last night, several Fed officials simultaneously refocused attention on "inflation." The real suspense is no longer whether Waller will talk about inflation, but rather—how far he dares to go with his words.
In the past, a Fed chair's speech was considered successful if it didn't cause excessive market volatility. But today is different; the market has waited too long, and Waller needs to give the market an explanation.
If Waller says nothing or is vague, the market might interpret it as a second communication failure, potentially leading to further rises in long-term yields. Weighing the pros and cons, the probability that Waller will show a "hard hawk" stance is low; it's more likely he will present a "credibility-restoring hawk" position to convince the market of the Fed's determination to fight inflation.
Waller is very unlikely to say "I will raise rates," but rather to show "I dare to raise rates." The difference between "I will" and "I dare" is just one word, but the effect is vastly different.
$BTC $ETH #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $6.4 billion worth of $BTC options expire this Friday, with potential short-term volatility near $80,000
Approximately $6.44 billion nominal value of Bitcoin options will expire on Deribit this Friday, involving about 81,700 contracts. Among them, 44,600 are call options and 37,100 are put options, with a put/call ratio of 0.83, indicating an overall bullish position.
From the open interest distribution, $75,000 and $80,000 are the key strike prices currently, with a large concentration of options in these two areas. Since $BTC is currently near $80,000, market makers may continuously adjust their hedging positions based on price changes before and after expiration, potentially amplifying short-term volatility under certain circumstances.
It is worth noting that the maximum pain point for this expiration is approximately between $68,000 and $70,000, significantly below the current price. However, nominal value does not equal actual cash flow; some out-of-the-money options may expire worthless, so it should not be simply interpreted as $6.4 billion flowing in or out of the market.
Additionally, this options expiration coincides with ETF capital flows and macro events such as the Jackson Hole meeting. The real short-term focus remains whether BTC can hold $80,000 and whether there will be significant changes in capital and volatility after expiration. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC
The US Treasury buyback signals a liquidity easing, providing some positive support for BTC, but this factor alone is not enough to push the market up to the 80,000 level within just a few days. The core driving force behind this rally comes from short covering. Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in a single week. Whether the trend can continue to strengthen or will test support by dipping, and whether spot buying and ETF funds can continue to flow in at high levels to absorb selling pressure, will be key factors. A large amount of BTC options expire today, which will also bring some short-term market disturbance.
Interestingly, after Nvidia released its Q3 earnings guidance, its after-hours stock price surged about 5%, and BTC rose simultaneously. I believe this is just a sentiment linkage effect among risk assets and cannot be taken as conclusive evidence of a causal relationship between the two.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 Trump launched a stablecoin called USD1 with a scale of over 4 billion, obtaining a bank license approved by US regulators.
Sheikh Tahnoon, a key figure in Abu Dhabi, and related capital directly acquired nearly half of the equity.
The regulatory requirement for its own capital reserve bottom line is only 20 million USD, but the stablecoin it backs is close to 4.1 billion USD, roughly 20.5 billion coins in circulation, corresponding to just 1 USD of bank capital per coin. This gap is quite exaggerated.
The coin's security relies on reserve assets, not this 20 million, but if the reserve side encounters problems, this capital base cannot cover it at all.
The ratio is 20 million to 4.1 billion.
As mentioned earlier, the largest shareholders are entities with UAE royal family backgrounds holding 49% of shares, and the Trump family entity holds 38%.
Regulatory public documents do not disclose these shareholding ratios at all; all information comes from insider leaks.
How to bypass major shareholder regulatory requirements?
They created a non-intervention commitment letter.
Eric Trump and representatives from the UAE signed to guarantee no interference in bank personnel, dividends, or operations, and voting rights exceeding 9.9% are directly entrusted to management proxies.
In plain terms, it's a paper promise that they won't interfere, and regulators have not officially classified them as major shareholders.
The signatures are there, but the equity is firmly in their hands.
It should be noted that the UAE figure behind this also controls the UAE national security agency, coincidentally at a time when the US was still debating whether to allow the UAE access to high-end chips, a controversy at the national security level The $BTC spot premium index is still steadily and slowly rising.
However, there was a quick pullback after a short-term new high breakout, with limited volatility, which can be seen as a small-scale profit-taking action by futures bulls.
Currently, another key factor to watch for short-term upward movement here is whether the net inflow of spot ETFs has declined?
After all, the market structure over the past two weeks has been: positive narrative - rapid short squeeze - sideways consolidation - waiting for spot to take over.
The first three stages are now complete, leaving only the last stage. The spot ETFs and on-exchange spot buying will determine whether this rally marks the first key turning point from bear to bull.
Finally, one more point: until the weekly left-side rebound high of 82.8k is decisively surpassed, strictly speaking, the bear market is not over. Currently, sentiment and capital flows have warmed up, but the technical aspect is still missing.
The above are all personal views, not investment advice, for reference only.BTC has pulled back from around $57,000 all the way above $80,000, showing strong short-term momentum, but it has now reached a very critical position: the 50-week moving average + the $80,000–$85,000 resistance zone.
My bearish bias is mainly based on several points:
First, the current structure is still highly similar to 2018.
Back then, BTC also swept previous lows in the summer before rebounding sharply, eventually surging to near the 50-week moving average, then getting rejected, with the true bear market bottom only forming in Q4. The 2026 rhythm is about a month slower than 2018, but the structure has not truly failed yet.
Second, the US stock market risk from August to October cannot be ignored.
In past midterm election years, the US stock market has experienced significant autumn corrections, roughly 10%–20%. If a risk-off event happens again this year, BTC will find it difficult to continue rising independently of the stock market.
Third, some on-chain indicators have already reset, but not comprehensively.
Weekly RSI and Supply in Profit/Loss indeed support that $57,000 might have been the bottom, but the Realized Price is still around $53,000. This BTC cycle has not yet tested this core cost zone like some past bear markets.
$BTC $ETH
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 This round of storage market may take longer than the market expects. On August 27, SK Hynix CEO Kwok Lu Zhengxi clearly stated after laying groundwork at the new plant in Indiana, USA: the current global memory chip shortage is expected to continue until the end of 2030. This statement carries weight. SK Hynix currently accounts for about 58% of global HBM market revenue and is one of the core HBM suppliers. While the company estimates memory shortage will last another four years, it continues to aggressively expand production: the Indiana site in the US has invested over $4 billion, planning to begin mass production of next-generation HBM4E in the third quarter of 2029, with a future annual capacity target of hundreds of thousands of wafers. In other words, even as new HBM capacity continues to increase, SK Hynix still judges that demand growth may continue to outpace supply. The real issue worth reconsidering in this round of storage is no longer "how much longer this round can last." Rather: this may not be a short-term cycle at all $SKHYNIX $SNDK $MU BTC still belongs to the "bottom confirmation" phase, but from a price perspective, it is already very close to being defined as "bottom basically confirmed."
The most critical data today:
* BTC real-time: $80,605
* 200WMA: $64,413.74
* Distance from 200WMA: +25.14%
* MVRV-Z: 0.93
* MVRV: 1.485
* Binance USDC net inflow on August 24: >$470M
* US BTC ETF net inflow in the past week: about $1.92B
* 100–1k BTC: 7 days +27,819 / 30 days +31,980
* 1k–10k BTC: 7 days -52,749 / 30 days -45,674
* 10k BTC: 7 days +31,918 / 30 days +75,643.
Therefore, my probability judgment for the cycle bottom today is:
60–64K has already formed the final bottom area of this cycle: about 93%–95%.
But in the short term, I still consider a pullback to 74–78K before breaking through as the most probable path, rather than assuming a straight surge to 90K after 80K.
If two or more of the following occur: weekly breakout above 83K + clear 7-day rebound in 1k–10k BTC rolling + stablecoin turning positive over 30 days, I will officially upgrade the phase from "bottom confirmation" to "bottom basically confirmed / early stage of a new upward trend."Why did many people miss out this year, not buying any spot below 60k in June-July, still thinking about the "last dip"? Why do they still not believe that the market is currently on the path of reversal? Because most people are stubbornly comparing it to the 2022 and 2018 bear markets, generally believing that the 2026 bear market will be the same as the previous two, and will start next January.
In fact, this bear market operates very differently from before. This time, the bear market completed two main down waves in one go, and the final wave has the smallest fluctuation, which fits the characteristics of the tail end of each bear market. Previously, bear markets were drawn out wave by wave, lasting a whole year. June 30 this year is equivalent to November 21, 2022 (the ultimate low point of 15443 in 2022). This time, after about 48 days of sideways consolidation at the bottom, there was a sudden breakout; similarly, after November 21, 2022, there was also about 48 days of sideways consolidation at the bottom before a breakout on January 1, 2023.
In June-July, I kept reminding that the monthly MACD had already returned to the zero line; how could it possibly fall to a lower level? It's like a plane has already landed—can it still dig underground?
Actually, the signal that the bear market ended at the end of June was not very obvious for BTC; the clearest signals were from SOL and ETH.Walsh's first Jackson Hole keynote arrives with the Fed's trade-off unusually exposed: core PCE remains above 2%, yet initial jobless claims have fallen to 203K. With Schmid and Hammack emphasizing inflation risks, the key signal is not a single policy preference but whether Walsh defines a repeatable reaction function.
My read is that clarity on how inflation, employment and financial conditions alter policy would matter more than a hawkish or dovish label. A vague framework could leave markets repeatedly repricing the Fed-Treasury boundary on long yields, increasing volatility across the dollar, Treasuries, gold and BTC. Not advice, just analysis.
#WalshPolicyFrameworkSolana has climbed back above $100, becoming one of the stronger performing major assets in the recent crypto market rebound. Data shows that SOL has risen over 23% in the past week, reaching as high as $107, marking a new high since February this year.
Behind this rally, continuous inflows into ETFs have been a key driving force. Net inflows into Solana-related ETFs have accumulated to about $1.2 billion, with multiple consecutive trading days of net inflows recently, indicating a clear increase in institutional interest.
At the same time, on-chain liquidity for Solana is also improving, with stablecoin supply nearing $16 billion and DEX trading volume approaching $56 billion over the past 30 days, demonstrating sustained high activity in on-chain trading and DeFi.
Improved macro liquidity expectations have also boosted market risk appetite. However, it is not yet accurate to simply interpret this as a full capital shift from BTC to SOL. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recently maintained substantial net inflows, and BTC remains the core asset in institutional portfolios. In contrast, SOL's current advantage mainly stems from the combined rise in ETF capital, on-chain activity, and market risk appetite. $SOL $ETH $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #BTC surge and pullback, options expiration amplifies key level battles 1. Current BTC market: Tug-of-war at the $80,000 level
As of August 28, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $78,000 and $81,000. Since early August, it has rebounded over 26% from a low near $64,000, with a monthly gain exceeding 28%. However, short-term momentum has weakened, with selling pressure concentrated in the $81,000-$86,000 range, and $83,000 becoming a critical watershed.
On-chain data shows the DTMM indicator currently at 2.03; although it has moved away from the bottom accumulation zone (threshold 1.5), it is still below the expansion phase threshold (2.5), confirming the market is in a neutral consolidation range. The actual realized price for short-term holders is $69,371, and the MVRV ratio is only 1.13, indicating no overheating.
The core bottleneck lies in the lack of US spot buying power—Coinbase premium index is negative on both daily and hourly charts, and the absence of US capital makes it difficult for the price to break key resistance.
2. The real situation of the Fed's "balance sheet expansion": It is not a true expansion
Clarifying a key misconception: the current market discussion is not about the Fed directly expanding its balance sheet, but rather the "Treasury-Fed Accord" framework—the core is Fed balance sheet contraction and commercial bank balance sheet expansion, with the government reducing long-term Treasury issuance and increasing short-term T-bill supply, which banks absorb.
As of August 26, the Fed's total assets were about $6.73 trillion, slightly down from $6.749 trillion on August 5. Quantitative tightening (QT) ended in December 2025, and the balance sheet remains narrowly around $6.7 trillion As of today, the crypto market is experiencing a differentiated trend dominated by "currency devaluation trades." On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double the monthly repurchase scale of long-term government bonds to $4 billion, which the market interpreted as implicit easing. The U.S. dollar index weakened, and Bitcoin, Ethereum, and OKB all rose in response, but the fundamentals of the three differ significantly, presenting both opportunities and risks.
$BTC broke through $81,000, with a monthly gain exceeding 28%. The spot ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of over $2.6 billion in nearly eight trading days, indicating strong buying pressure. However, the crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to the "extreme greed" zone. Fidelity's FBTC saw a single-day outflow of $83.6 million, and the MACD indicator has formed a death cross, signaling a notable short-term risk of overbought correction. Whether the $80,000 level can hold is key to determining the market's direction; if broken, it could trigger a chain sell-off.
$ETH has returned to the $2,500 psychological level, with a weekly gain of about 30%, still nearly half the distance from the 2025 peak of $4,950. The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded a total net inflow of $697 million last week, a single-week historical high; exchange ETH reserves continue to decline, strengthening spot buying. However, the daily RSI has risen above 70, indicating clear overbought signals. If $2,500 turns into effective support, the targets above are $2,600, $2,700, and even $3,000; if broken, a retest of $2,300 support is possible.
$OKB has held steady at $107 after completing its 28th burn, with a gain of about 30% since August.HYPE｜August 29: Largest single-month unlock since launch (tomorrow)
Approximately 14.18 million HYPE tokens, currently valued at about 1.2 billion USD, with insiders holding 46.6%. Conflicting figures persist from the previous report: Tokenomist counts 2.7% of circulating supply, KuCoin reports 4.46%, still pending reconciliation; additionally, there are unconfirmed reports of small releases by core contributors from 9/1 to 9/6. Verification steps: On the unlock day, check on-chain release volume and recipient types, and monitor net inflow to exchanges within 48 hours.
ASTER｜August 25: Biweekly burn confirmed on-chain (confirmed, closing previous pending verification)
Between 8/10 and 8/24, 4,246,162.43 tokens were repurchased and an equal amount of team shares were burned; additionally, 2,918,425.19 tokens were burned during reconciliation from 6/17 to 8/10; cumulative burns after upgrade total 18,250,696.03 tokens. The previous issue of "no on-chain confirmation for 8/25 biweekly burn" has been resolved through window reconciliation statements, but Tokenomist's concern that "repurchases do not reduce circulating supply" remains a pending verification item.
ASTER｜September 17: Team's first unlock (about 10 million tokens/month)
The team's 400 million token holdings will begin monthly releases starting 9/17, approximately 10 million tokens per month. The destination is more important than the quantity: transfers to exchanges and transfers to burn addresses have opposite implications. On 8/29, the largest single-month unlock since launch will be executed: approximately 14.18 million HYPE tokens, currently valued at about $1.2 billion, accounting for 2.7% of the circulating supply (according to Tokenomist; KuCoin reports a different figure of 4.46%, a discrepancy carried over from the previous scan and still pending reconciliation). Distribution: insiders 46.6%, community 46.3%, foundation 7%. Price-wise, on 8/27 it touched $85.10 (after previously hitting $83.27 on 8/24 before retreating), marking a cumulative increase of about 45% since around $58.5 on August 18.
The price rise has real catalysts: on 8/26, tokenized stocks NVDAx/QQQx/SPYx launched for 24/7 trading; Trump stated that CFTC Chairman Selig is "working very hard" to push Hyperliquid's compliance entry into the US market; three US spot ETFs (THYP/BHYP/HYPG) had a cumulative net inflow of $315 million as of 8/26; in the first half of 2026, fee income reached $419 million, trading volume $1.29 trillion, and daily active users grew by about 90%. These form a self-reinforcing narrative of "revenue → buyback → demand." Omdia predicts that AI ASIC shipments will surpass GPUs by 2028, with the market's core contradiction lying in the pricing mismatch between the GPU software ecosystem barriers and the long-term inference cost restructuring, while capital risk appetite faces structural portfolio adjustment pressure.
The shipment inflection point is set for 2028, prompting mid-to-long-term capital to reassess the profit distribution pattern of the computing power supply chain. Hardware cost transmission will directly affect inflationary pressure on AI infrastructure and capital expenditure efficiency.
Currently, risk capital remains concentrated in the general-purpose computing ecosystem, but expectations of increased penetration of specialized chips are squeezing high premium valuations. The trend of shifting positions from high-valuation ecosystems to low-cost customized supply chains is gradually emerging.
The upside scenario is characterized by inference demand exploding beyond expectations, with ASIC acceleration replacing and improving overall computing power production efficiency. The trigger condition for this scenario is cloud providers significantly increasing their ASIC procurement ratio; it is necessary to observe hardware delivery cycles and cost reductions. The invalidation signal is a rebound in general GPU shipment growth.
The downside scenario is characterized by the solidification of GPU software ecosystem barriers, with the commercialization progress of specialized chips lagging behind the 2028 forecast. The trigger condition for this scenario is that large model training iterations hinder the unification pace of ASIC standards; it is necessary to observe software adaptation rates and ecosystem migration costs. The invalidation signal is an explosive share of ASICs in mainstream inference scenarios.
The evolution of computing power chips from general-purpose to specialized will reduce unit computing power inflation, thereby changing the investment risk appetite in the technology sector. If ASIC delivery efficiency falls short of expectations, high computing power costs will continue to drive inflationary pressure in the AI industry chain.
If the 2028 shipment expectations are delayed due to production bottlenecks or a significant price drop in general-purpose computing power, the deduction logic fails. At this time, capital will flow back to the general ecosystem, erasing the risk premium of specialized chips.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing order changes in the computing power supply chain and institutional capital expenditure portfolio adjustment data.
#StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易 #OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 #银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款$BTC experienced a significant rebound last week, with a weekly gain close to 22%. However, this rally was not driven solely by internal capital within the crypto market; a more important catalyst came from macro liquidity.
On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of the long-term Treasury repurchase program. After the announcement, long-term Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and both gold and Bitcoin strengthened simultaneously. The market temporarily reallocated funds to gold, BTC, and other assets with anti-currency depreciation properties.
At the same time, continuous inflows into ETFs also provided spot market support. Data shows that spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of about $1.92 billion that week, following eight consecutive trading days of net inflows, accumulating to about $2.8 billion.
Notably, this rally was also accompanied by substantial short covering. After breaking through the previous consolidation range, about $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated, while futures open interest did not surge correspondingly, indicating that the rally was not purely driven by high-leverage chasing.
The real focus now is September 9. By then, the Treasury's expanded repurchase program will officially launch, and the market will test whether macro liquidity can be sustained. If ETF inflows continue, dollar liquidity remains loose, and BTC can hold the key breakout levels, the rally still has room to extend. Conversely, if yields rise again and ETF inflows weaken, the market may re-enter a consolidation or even a pullback phase. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ BTC & ETH: The latest surge is being heavily amplified by a short squeeze. Around $1.4B in short positions were liquidated within just four hours of the breakout, while total liquidations surpassed $4B over the next two days. This triggered a classic “rally → short covering → further rally” cycle.
Macro narrative shift: The U.S. Treasury announced that from September 9, the limit for long-term bond buybacks will increase to at least $4B.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware 2 suspicious new addresses simultaneously opened ETH long positions on Hyperliquid, initiating $40 million worth of ETH longs within 16 seconds!
If tonight's to tomorrow's Wash speech leans towards "inflation remains high but no immediate need to tighten further, emphasizing innovation/payments": this batch of new longs makes sense, and ETH is more likely to first break through the 2550–2600 test range, with shorts remaining passive.
If the speech is hawkish, emphasizing inflation is not yet beaten and rates can tighten further: these positions opened near 2490 will likely see a quick pullback, because leveraged positions are public and the market knows where the profit is.
A nominal $40 million position is not earth-shattering for the spot market, but for Hyperliquid, which has a visible order book, it signals that the largest group of longs believes 2500 is not the end but the starting point for a second round. $ETH