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#BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies key level battle BTC surged then fell back, options expiry amplifies key level battle Bitcoin just experienced a beautiful surge but quickly met resistance and fell back at a critical level. On August 25, BTC briefly broke through $80,000 and hit a new local high; but by August 28, the price fell back below $80,000 after touching about $81,300. (Reuters) On the surface, this looks like a normal profit-taking. But if we focus on today’s timing, things are not so simple. Because a BTC options expiry with a nominal value of about $6.4 billion is currently amplifying the market’s long-short battle. 01 Why has $80,000 suddenly become so important? In recent days, $80,000 has become more than just a psychological round number. It is also near an important strike price in the options market. According to recent derivatives market data, about 81,700 BTC options will expire on August 28, with a nominal value of about $6.4 billion, and there is a concentrated Call position near $75,000 and $80,000. (KuCoin) What does this mean? Simply put, when BTC approaches these key strike prices, market makers and other participants may need to continuously adjust their hedge positions. If the price oscillates around the key levels, there may be a state of “neither able to rally nor fall deeply”; but if it truly breaks through the key range, with rapid hedge adjustments, the market may suddenly accelerate again. Therefore, the options expiry itself does not necessarily mean#Walsh to appear at Jackson Hole tonight, the real heavy signal might not be "to hike or not to hike" 👀
Walsh can speak hawkishly, but I don't think he will directly put "rate hike" on the table.
What the market really wants to hear tonight is: what exactly is the Fed planning for the next few months?
Latest news shows Walsh's speech is under huge attention, with the market already pricing in about a 33% chance of a rate hike in September. Meanwhile, pressure on long-term US Treasury yields and the US fiscal deficit issue are also topics that Jackson Hole cannot avoid.
My scenario leans more towards:
👉 Verbally maintain a hawkish stance, leaving the market room for "rate hikes if necessary"
👉 But not rushing to actually hike rates, to avoid further shocks to the economy and asset prices
👉 Continue to focus on changes in the yield curve structure at the bond end
On the crypto side, a noteworthy signal has emerged.
BTC ETF funds have seen net inflows for several consecutive days, with August cumulative inflows exceeding $3 billion, indicating institutional capital is still supporting.
In the US stock market, after Nvidia's earnings report, the tech sector's strong momentum has cooled down somewhat; today, Nasdaq and S&P futures are slightly weaker, and chip stocks have also retreated.
So my short-term scenario is:
BTC oscillates between $78K–$81K for consolidation → ETH repeatedly contests between $2.4K–$2.6K 🐪 Pharaoh’s Market Watch
Walsh speaks at Jackson Hole tonight at 10 PM. Can $BTC hold $80K?
Three scenarios:
1️⃣ Most likely: He stays vague on rates, focusing on AI, productivity and Fed reform.
2️⃣ Hawkish: Inflation concerns return → BTC could pull back toward $77K–$78K.
3️⃣ Dovish: He notes tighter financial conditions → BTC could retest $81K–$82K.
My view: Don’t bet on the speech alone. Clear signals may be limited, with upcoming economic data likely to matter more. 👀📊
$BTC $ETH On the surface, SOL is the strongest in the market, but what truly excites people isn't how much it has risen, but the way it has risen—it leaves almost no chance for those who hesitate. Have you noticed that in this rally, everyone talks about BTC, but the money quietly goes somewhere else? SOL immediately climbed to $110 today, up 7% in 24 hours, leaving the mainstream coin far behind. Its 30-day cumulative gain exceeds 45%, leaving BTC and ETH far behind. What's even more interesting is that after breaking through the psychological barrier of $100, there was almost no significant pullback. Today's new high is basically a word "strong" written all over its face. But what I want to talk about is not the price itself, but the changes in sector strength behind the price. The capital sector has already given the answer. On August 24, SOL spot ETFs saw $33.49 million in inflows in a single day, the highest in eight months, and continued to see net inflows in the following days. More importantly, DEX trading volume on Solana has surpassed CEX for nine consecutive weeks—what does this indicate? On-chain activity isn't just short-term speculation—it's that actual usage frequency is rising. Even the few xStocks-related trades on OKX are running on Solana, and the chain's ecosystem narrative has spread from memes to more practical application scenarios. From the perspective of sector strength, the main driver of this round is clearly not BTC, but the narrative of SOL's 'application-oriented public chain' being repriced. The market's willingness to give SOL a higher valuation is essentially a giveaway$CRCL I recently added a bit more.
To be honest, I no longer just see it as a “stablecoin.”
Circle’s simplest profit logic used to be taking the money in USDC to earn interest from U.S. Treasury bonds, so whenever there was a rate cut, the market would first dump it.
But what I’m more interested in now is whether the volume of USDC can continue to grow, and whether payment, settlement, and cross-border businesses can really start making money.
If Circle ends up just being a company that earns interest, then it’s indeed not cheap right now.
But if it can truly make USDC the on-chain dollar infrastructure, then the potential is completely different.
So this round, I still chose to add a bit.
Not going all in, just holding slowly.
As long as USDC keeps growing and Circle’s commercialization keeps moving forward, I’m willing to keep supporting it.At 19:33 on August 28, BTC was around $79,720, ETH around $2,508; OKX and Binance quotes were close, both showing only slight increases over 24 hours. Prices are not hot, yet institutional funds continue to flow back.
Farside shows that on August 27, US spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of $242.3 million, ETH ETFs had a net inflow of $225.8 million, both marking the 9th consecutive trading day of positive inflows. From August 17 to 27 combined, BTC saw about $3.044 billion, ETH about $1.406 billion. Another source also reported BTC at $242.3 million; ETH was about $235 million due to product scope differences, but the direction is consistent.
The fund structure is even more worth noting. On the BTC side, IBIT had inflows of $277.6 million, partially offset by outflows of $83.6 million from FBTC and $27.2 million from GBTC; on the ETH side, ETHA, ETHB, and FETH together contributed about $207.1 million, with the main products showing a clearer same-direction trend. "Total ETF amount in the green" does not mean institutions are uniformly increasing positions; BTC still experiences product-to-product turnover, while ETH buying is more orderly.
Continuous inflows can provide support but cannot replace price confirmation. Do you value BTC's absolute scale more, or ETH's more orderly same-direction demand? If ETFs continue to flow in but prices remain range-bound, do you think it is a buildup, or is the supply above absorbing the buying pressure? #BTC #ETH #ETF fund flowAnsem proposed that the scale of an on-chain platform combining social interaction and speculation could reach tens of trillions of dollars within ten years, because the influence of creators was previously unpriceable, while TRUMP's market value of about $80 billion proves that attention can be scaled. Data breakdown: the trading volume of its eponymous token has increased about 4.7 times, but social heat remains almost flat, driven by existing funds rather than new participants; during the same period, unrealized losses on holdings once reached about $160 million. The overlooked downside: short videos are free but trading requires principal, so addiction thresholds differ; fee sharing and airdrops are zero-sum games, with creator earnings coming from fees paid by later participants rather than incremental cash flow. In the broader market, Bitcoin is around $80,000, up over 20% weekly, RSI about 81.7, greed index 71, indicating overheated sentiment. Narrative does not equal model closure. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. $BICO's recent surge is a typical case of large holders pumping the price to create momentum.
The rally attracts retail investors chasing the highs to take the bags, while behind the scenes, huge sell orders are quietly offloading.
The tokens are highly concentrated in the top 50 holder addresses, and all tokens have long been unlocked. The sharp drop after the spike with a big bearish candle is the result of profit-taking.
I have already chosen to take profits and exit, neither going long nor short. Such small-cap coins with concentrated holdings can experience sudden, unpredicted price spikes downward, with risks far outweighing opportunities.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
$BTC $XAU
Christopher Waller will speak tonight at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. As a Federal Reserve Board member, he has previously shown a relatively open attitude toward rate cuts, and the market is watching to see if he will further outline the policy path.
Currently, there are still differences within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts: data-dependent members emphasize inflation stickiness and employment resilience, while doves focus on signs of cooling in the labor market. If Waller clarifies a "data-driven + risk balance" framework, it may strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September; if he continues to emphasize uncertainty and avoids giving a timetable, it will be difficult to significantly change market pricing.
Historical experience shows that Jackson Hole speeches are mostly principled statements, rarely providing specific rate paths. Waller's speech is more likely to reiterate flexibility and caution rather than clearly define a complete policy framework at once. The market will focus on his latest assessment of inflation, employment, and the neutral interest rate #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
Tonight, Walsh makes his debut at Jackson Hole. The market is eagerly awaiting him to clarify the interest rate direction, but judging from his consistent style since taking office, it is highly unlikely he will provide a clear interest rate guidance for September. Instead, he will likely elaborate on the new policy framework ideas without directly signaling short-term actions.
Current market contradictions
The latest core PCE remains flat, inflation stickiness is stubborn, and there is still a gap from the 2% target. The economy and employment remain resilient. Since Walsh took office, he has directly cut traditional forward guidance and downplayed the dot plot, advocating for data-driven decisions. The market has lost a clear policy anchor, amplifying volatility in U.S. Treasuries and risk assets.
Currently, the market is pricing in a higher probability of a rate hike by year-end. BTC is tugging back and forth around the 80,000 level. Tonight's speech will directly determine whether this rebound can continue.
Three scenario simulations
Scenario 1: Hawkish stance (low probability)
Emphasize inflation risks and keep the possibility of a rate hike within the year. U.S. Treasury yields rise, the dollar strengthens, BTC comes under pressure, with key support at 77,500-78,000. A break below this will trigger a phase of correction.
Scenario 2: Neutral and pragmatic (highest probability)
Firmly defend the 2% inflation target, only discuss policy framework reform, avoid specific rate hints for September, and leave the decision to subsequent data. BTC will maintain a range-bound movement between 78,000-81,000, continuing to await nonfarm payroll and inflation data to break the deadlock. $6.4B in BTC options expire Friday 08:00 UTC a fifth of Deribit's open interest in one settlement.
Meanwhile perp liquidation max pain sits at $77,567 just 2.66% above and 2.50% below current price. Tight zone, both sides loaded.
Same day as Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair. Options unwind, liquidation pressure, and a live macro speech right at the $80K test.$BTC #BTCOptionsExpiryTest 14U Zero-Threshold Crypto Real Trading Challenge｜Complete Disclosure of TRUMP Trading Strategy
The previous LIGHT trade went against the trend and hit a stop loss, resulting in a big loss. After learning from that, this time I no longer subjectively predict large-scale reversals, but only look for short-term opportunities based on risk-reward ratio and support/resistance levels.
First, look at the daily chart
TRUMP previously surged to 3.684 then pulled back; the current rebound peak is 2.932, which is clearly lower than the previous peak.
At this stage, it is a high-level consolidation after a big rise, not a new main upward trend. The daily indicators are moving sideways, with heavy trapped positions above. MEME coins at this level can face a rapid dump at any time.
Next, look at the 15-minute short-term chart
Price quickly dropped from the 2.886 resistance level, bottoming at 2.607, and is currently rebounding near 2.755.
The first resistance above: Supertrend line at 2.842, strong resistance zone at 2.886.
Many ask: Since the price is rebounding, why not go long with the trend?
I did a realistic calculation.
👉If choosing to go long:
The effective support is the low at 2.607, so the stop loss must be placed below this point. The distance from current price to stop loss is about 0.15. The upside to the first resistance is only 0.09.
Stop loss distance > profit potential, risk-reward ratio is inverted.
Even if you win seven times, one big drop wipes out all profits. In a choppy rebound market, such trades have no long-term value.
👉Choosing to go short:
Entry at 2.755, stop loss above resistance at 2.860, stop loss range 0.105.
First take profit target is previous low at 2.607, profit potential 0.148. Risk-reward ratio reaches 1.4:1, meeting my entry criteria.
My current trading rule:
No longer guessing trend direction, prioritize calculating risk-reward ratio. Even if the trend is good, if profits are small and losses large, I firmly avoid entering.
Position sizing strictly follows discipline: total capital 14U, 10U margin, 3x leverage for opening positions, 4U reserved as backup. I won’t increase position size to recover losses from the previous trade.
Of course, the judgment might be wrong. If price breaks resistance and continues rising, I will strictly stop loss and exit. There is no 100% certainty in trading; sticking to rules is enough.
I will fully review all closing results afterward, whether profit or stop loss, and never embellish trading records.
If you want to see how an ordinary person uses simple trend trading rules to see how far 14U can go, you can follow me to continuously track the entire real trading process.
#TRUMP #CryptoRealTrading #SmallCapitalTradingChallenge #TradeReview #PerpetualContractRecordYou are talking about that OKX trader who grew from 10,000 to 130 million and ranked first in profit for 365 days, the so-called "Ten Boss".
**1. He is a short-term trader, not a spot holder.** He has been trading contracts for 9 years, with the core principle of "admitting mistakes, cutting losses, and getting back up," not stubbornly holding one direction. When BTC rose from $62K to $81K in one month, a 30% increase, he saw this as a short-term overbought condition and shorted the pullback as a normal operation. You might not have noticed when he was going long.
**2. There is indeed strong resistance above $80K.** This is a dense trading area before the crash in May, with many trapped positions. After surging to $81K on August 25, it failed to hold for three consecutive days, now consolidating with low volume waiting for Wash's speech. Technically, the 1-hour MACD shows a death cross, and KDJ is turning down, so shorting by short-term traders is not surprising.
**3. He trades "win rate," not "direction."** The core message in his podcast is just one sentence — "train to not lose as a skill." He might open a short at $80,500, stop loss at $81,500 (1.2% loss), take profit at $77,000 (4.3% gain), with a risk-reward ratio of 3.5:1. Small losses when wrong, big gains when right. This logic is completely different from holding spot in a bull market.
**SOL spot ETF net inflows yesterday were approximately $56.1M-$60.9M according to different data sources, marking the highest since November 2025 and the third largest single-day inflow since the product launch; if looking only at Bitwise products, SOL inflows were about $40M, significantly exceeding BTC's $22M; meanwhile, $SOL perpetual open interest has risen to $7.54B, with 24h trading volume around $16.5B, and the funding rate is close to neutral, not as crowded as BTC and ETH.
The data tells us that this time SOL is not simply following BTC's rise, but is expanding simultaneously across ETF, performance upgrades, and institutional product shelves, allowing SOL to start gaining independent allocation demand.
Next, we need to observe whether the SOL ETF can maintain continuity; if subsequent inflows remain above $30M and funding stays moderate, the structure will be relatively healthy; if the ETF cools down quickly but open interest continues to rise, caution is needed for potential emotional chasing.$PUMP Buy more in, watch Level2 sell orders being actively eaten through by market price buys, not just looking at candlestick patterns. Thin sell walls are sparse, retracement with shrinking volume and exhausted selling pressure; only enter after the volume surge eats through the order layers.
50x does not chase breakout candles, only targets the order wall collapse points. Take 80% profit, move stop loss to open position loss, then move stop loss to just below the breakout candle low with volume—that's the real support boundary, not a round number. This kind of order-eating structure in thin markets will replicate every few days. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员: AI demand spreads from hardware to software. In my opinion, what truly deserves attention in Nvidia's latest financial report is not just the GPU sales booming again. What's even more noteworthy is another line: Nvidia is shifting from "selling chips" to "selling the entire AI computing platform." And software is becoming an increasingly important part of this business model. Let's look at the most direct data: Nvidia's latest FY2027 Q2 report: revenue of $96.22 billion, up 106% year-on-year; of which: data center revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-on-year. The market had previously expected total revenue to be about $92.3 billion, but Nvidia once again clearly exceeded expectations. Even more impressive, the next quarter guidance is $108 billion. Nvidia expects revenue to grow by about 70% in the next fiscal year. This is no longer just "AI demand is pretty good." Rather: AI infrastructure capital expenditure is still in a very strong expansion cycle. But this time, I focus more on software. In the past, the valuation logic for Nvidia was simple: AI needs GPUs. So: Microsoft buys GPUs,
Meta buys GPUs,
Buy GPUs on Amazon,
AI labs buy GPUs. NVIDIA sells shovels. But if we only stay here, NVIDIA will always be a hardware company. What's the problem with hardware companies? Products have cycles. Competitors will chase. Customers will also develop ASICs and self-developed chips. GPUs will never be without competition. SoCalifornia is starting to draw a red line for meme coins.
AB 2409 has been passed by the California legislature, focusing on two main points:
First, public officials are prohibited from issuing meme coins.
Second, starting from January 1, 2027, service providers are not allowed to offer trading services for such tokens to California residents.
What does this mean?
In the future, "presidential coin" models like President Trump's coin $TRUMP may become increasingly sensitive.
Previously, when presidents, celebrities, or influencers issued a coin, the market consensus alone could drive the price sky-high.
But now, regulation is directly targeting both the issuance and trading ends.
Especially the second point, if other states follow suit, the real impact won't be on a single MEME coin but on the entire business model of political figures issuing coins.
The most interesting part of this is:
Presidents can issue coins, but state governments are starting to restrict public officials from doing so.
Is U.S. crypto regulation truly embracing Crypto, or only "compliant Crypto"?
This distinction might be the biggest variable in the next round of MEME market trends. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ U.S. corporate profits hit a record high. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows that in Q2 2026, annualized U.S. corporate profits reached $4.827 trillion, up from $4.427 trillion in Q1, setting a new historical record.
Key insights:
1. AI has become the core growth engine, with technology, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure continuously driving revenue and profit increases. Corporate investment in Q2 grew about 8.5% year-over-year;
2. Profit levels have significantly improved, with corporate profits accounting for 18% of national income, remaining at a high level since World War II;
3. Fundamentals favor U.S. stocks, as strong profits will continue to support the market, with technology, AI, and energy sectors showing prominent high-profit advantages.
At the same time, the data hides risks: corporate profit growth significantly outpaces wage increases for residents, making it difficult for dividends to fully reach ordinary people; combined with July's PCE inflation holding at a high 3.7%, this will limit the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts.
Overall, the current U.S. economy shows a pattern of "high corporate profit growth, moderate economic growth, and elevated inflation." This is a short-term positive for U.S. stocks and the dollar, while putting short-term pressure on gold; if corporate profits continue to hit new highs, the profit logic of AI and technology sectors remains the most important support theme for U.S. stocks. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ As Bitcoin's price rebounded above $80,000, Strategy (MSTR. US) stocks surged 37% within a week. However, in the past two weeks, the company has not made any BTC purchases, which has sparked deep market interpretation of its strategic intentions. From a financial perspective, Strategy (MSTR. US) successfully sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR (MSTR. US) common stock through a market price offering plan last week, raising about $2 billion in net fundraising. Currently, the company holds about 840,000 BTC, with an average cost of $75,300. At the current price of the coin, its book unrealized profit has exceeded $3 billion. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the company's dollar reserves and cash pools together hold $6.69 billion in liquidity, and it claims a net leverage ratio close to zero. It is worth noting that although MSTR (MSTR. US) surged to a high of $126.79 last week, a 37% increase, but during the same period, Bitcoin only rose about 22%, significantly outperforming the underlying assets. However, this rise was accompanied by large-scale equity dilution, with 4.59% of its share capital issued in just that one week, and so far this year, MSTR (MSTR. US) overall has still fallen about 69% from its 52-week high. This model of relying on rising stock prices to support valuations means that every round of financing is closely linked to market sentiment and capitalTRUMP on-chain fund movements are not simple. In the past two hours, a whale has transferred about 830,000 tokens from a spot wallet to a contract account, but the price did not rise accordingly. Instead, large sell orders continuously appeared above 2.83, with a long upper shadow on the naked candlestick. The contract funding rate also turned negative, indicating very weak willingness for spot price to rise. Currently, 2.769 is indecisive; there is some support at 2.74 but it's not very strong. Above, from 2.82 to 2.85, there are three layers of sell walls, making the long-short cost very narrow. When the red light was on, I glanced at the on-chain flow; the whale did not withdraw but instead thickened the sell orders near 2.83. This structure is hard to interpret as accumulation. My analysis is to short in the 2.79 to 2.82 range on a rebound, with a stop loss above 2.865. The first take profit target is 2.71; if it breaks below, look for 2.66 to 2.61. If it first breaks 2.74 with volume, do not chase shorts; wait for a rebound to 2.76 before adding to avoid losses from low liquidity sweeps. Manage your leverage carefully; don't be like me, who has already blown up once and is recklessly rolling the dice.
$TRUMP
#伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议
@OKX星球 OKB is consolidating near $113, with the supply side capped at a hard limit of 21 million tokens. The core issue lies in whether the on-chain Gas and staking lock-up can effectively absorb the spot buying pressure on high-level chips.
The spot price has a 56% gap from the historical high of $256. The current market cap of $2.37 billion reflects that the market has not fully priced in the absolute scarcity after the one-time burn of 65.26 million tokens and the removal of the minting function.
The priority order driven by liquidity is: the sediment demand brought by X Layer as the sole Gas token, the circulation lock caused by mandatory staking on Exchange OS, and institutional funds introduced through cooperation with ICE valued at $25 billion.
The bullish scenario triggers when X Layer ecosystem activity surpasses a threshold and staking lock-up continues to absorb floating chips. When spot volume pushes the price above $150, it will validate the scarcity premium revaluation logic, further driving liquidity to concentrate in the spot market.
The bearish scenario triggers if overall market liquidity tightens sharply or ecosystem development lags. If spot buying dries up causing the price to fall below $98, it indicates chips are concentrating in derivatives shorts, and scarcity support will temporarily fail.
If there is a sustained decline in X Layer on-chain Gas consumption or a large-scale unstaking in the staking pool, the bullish projection based on infrastructure synergy will immediately become invalid.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing the rate of X Layer on-chain Gas consumption and the thickness of spot buy orders in the $100 to $110 range.
#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议A notable detail in NVIDIA's new 10-Q report is causing the market to take a look at how "AI clouds" are built. NVIDIA has committed about $36 BILLION to acquire computing power from data centers where it sells hardware. 💡 The mechanism is quite special: NVIDIA sells GPUs/AI systems to AI clouds → these parties use the hardware to build data centers, → NVIDIA commits to buy back a portion of the capacity in about 6 years. If they find an external customer, they can sell the capacity to customers Bitcoin's correlation with gold has broken through 50%, while its 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from over 60% to about 33%
AI risk appetite rises, Bitcoin also rises
AI risk appetite falls, Bitcoin still rises
Since the big surge on 8/19, Bitcoin follows gold during the day and US stocks at night
Tonight at 10 PM, Powell will give a speech. Personally, I think policy credibility might be more worth watching than interest rate hikes or cuts
Why say this? Because since he took office, he has been hawkish but no rate hikes have been seen yet. If there is a black swan event in Q4, it will most likely be the implementation of rate hikes and a stronger dollar.
Crypto market will be the first to pull back, followed closely by US stocks, then gold will have a soft landing
If rates remain unchanged until the end of the year, with a weak economy and worsening employment, there might even be a passive rate cut
Approaching the US midterm elections, when money is tight, Trump might exert pressure behind the scenes. Even though rate hike expectations are high now, they could very likely be forcibly delayed until year-end
So in September, October, and November, Bitcoin and Ethereum will most likely experience wide fluctuations, just like gold and oil have this year Qatar LNG force majeure extended for another month
Are Europeans about to start scrambling for gas? 😂
Another not-so-good news from Qatar
LNG force majeure continues to be extended by one month
What does it mean?
Simply put
Bro, it's not that I don't want to supply you, it's that I really can't supply normally 😂
And no penalty for breach of contract is required
The problem is Qatar is not an ordinary natural gas seller
Before the war, Qatar supplied about one-fifth of the world's LNG
Now, due to the war, facility damage, and shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz, exports have been severely affected
Latest data from Reuters shows
Qatar's LNG exports this year have plummeted about 96% compared to the same period last year
Originally there were 509 shipments
Now only 18 shipments
This is not just a slight reduction
It's like the crystal has been taken away immediately
What's more troublesome is Europe
Europe's natural gas storage is already at a historical low for this season
If the winter gets a bit colder
And then another wave of supply issues comes...
Natural gas prices might start to spike again
Then natural gas prices rise → electricity prices rise → business costs rise → inflation pressure rises
The Federal Reserve is going to have a headache again
I just wanted to cut interest rates, and you give me this? 😂
Natural gas issues won't directly crash the big cake
$BTC Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), wrote that ETF inflows into ETH have hit a new high, with BTC ETFs seeing $242 million in inflows today and ETH ETFs inflowing $234 million. Although ETH's total market cap is only 18.8% of BTC's, it absorbed 96.8% of BTC's inflows, showing significantly stronger fundraising than BTC. In the current context of continuous capital inflows, the pattern of "consolidation at high levels with rising lows" is quite stable, and another round of bear squeeze could erupt at any time. If not for adhering to trading discipline and firmly avoiding leverage, or even preparing to go long on ETH. His current positioning strategy is: when no short positions are opened, hold all positions in ETH spot and wait for prices to rise; once a long position is opened, it means increasing leverage and triggering a risk of liquidationSEC Reopens the ICO Door, Where Have the Buyers Gone?
The SEC recently proposed a new plan to revive the ICO scene.
What does this mean? Crypto startups no longer need to go through the full registration process. Small projects can raise up to $5 million per year, and larger projects have a cap of $75 million. Compared to the heavy crackdown after the 2017 ICO boom, this is quite a turnaround in attitude.
But the problem is—the market is no longer the same.
How crazy was ICO back then?
In 2017, all it took was a whitepaper, a wallet, and convincing a bunch of people that the new coin would skyrocket.
At its peak, in January 2018, $3 billion was raised in a single month.
Then what happened? Prices crashed, regulations hit hard, projects ran away, and pump-and-dump schemes ran rampant—it all fell apart.
Bitcoin was halved twice from its peak, Ethereum didn’t fare much better, and many altcoins went to zero.
So what’s the awkward part now?
The SEC’s new rules don’t come cheap in compliance costs, and all required disclosures still must be made.
Even if you get through the fundraising stage, how to trade the tokens afterward remains a mess.
Worse yet—there’s no one left to buy in.
Retail investors are now very selective, mostly focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum, maybe glancing at Solana. New coins? Forget it.
Those chasing quick profits have moved on to perpetual contracts, prediction markets, or jumped straight into AI concept stocks.
Venture capital has cooled off too:
· Token-related investment and trading have noticeably shrunk since 2025;
· Many top VCs have turned to investing in AI, robotics, and biotech.
Is this regulatory move timely?
The reaction inside the industry is quite mixed.
Tom Schmidt, partner at Dragonfly, said:
"This is better than nothing, but if it had come out a few years earlier, it would have been much more valuable. The biggest issue now isn’t fundraising."
In short—the regulators are catching up on old issues, but the market has already moved on.
Is anyone optimistic?
Not entirely dismissive.
Winnie Lau from Strobe Ventures said, after the market’s long stagnation, this proposal makes her "cautiously optimistic"—at least it opens a legitimate path for projects that want to do real work, not just launch Meme coins.
Cosmo Jiang from Pantera Capital pointed out a key change:
"It used to be surreal—issuing Meme coins was legal, while tokens for serious projects were illegal, which is completely against normal business logic."
An important update in the new rules is that tokens won’t be permanently tied to the investment contracts at issuance; projects can end when they’re done.
But don’t get confused—legal doesn’t mean you have to invest.
Carlos Guzman, analyst at GSR, put it bluntly:
"The ICO in 2026 is a completely different game from 2018. The days of raising money with just a whitepaper and a PPT are over."
The data shows:
· Although Bitcoin has recently bounced back a bit, it’s still down about 10% from 2026 to today;
· Gold has risen more than 7% in the same period.
Even the "digital gold" story isn’t working well this year.
By the way, HYPE has been quite active lately, but one project can’t support the whole market.
$BTC $XAU $HYPE $BTC Tonight at 10 PM, the whole world is waiting for this man to speak!
Brothers, Bitcoin is currently stuck at the critical $80,000 mark, neither rising nor falling. Behind it is ETF capital pushing hard with a net inflow of $2.8 billion over 8 consecutive days, but ahead lies a "high-voltage grid" formed by a massive trapped volume between $81,000 and $86,000.
Tonight at 10 PM, Federal Reserve Chair Wash's speech at Jackson Hole will determine whether this market breaks through directly or first pulls back for a shakeout.
There is a detail you must pay attention to: this round of rally is not driven by contract retail traders rushing in with leverage, but by solid spot buying and shorts conceding and closing positions.
Futures open interest has dropped from 646,000 contracts to 588,000 contracts, indicating the load has lightened; the main players do not intend to fight contract longs here but are accumulating.
$ETH $SOL #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ The glorious era of South Korea's crypto market seems to have passed. But for global protocols, South Korea remains a market worth paying attention to. That's right, during the recent long bear market, trading volumes on exchanges like Upbit and Bithumb dropped sharply. But once market sentiment warms up a bit, trading volume can rebound 2.5 to 3 times in a short period. This shows one thing: retail liquidity in South Korea's crypto market is recovering quickly. But the industry itself is another matter. Compared to the past, the Korean crypto ecosystem has lost much of its appeal. During the 2021 bull market, South Korea had a strong presence in the global crypto community: a solid investor base, active communities, and waves of companies and projects from public blockchains, DeFi, blockchain games, NFTs, to infrastructure and wallets. After Terra's collapse in 2022, everything changed. The on-chain world is heading toward two extremes. While South Korea's crypto industry slowed, the global blockchain industry has taken a rather interesting path. Bitcoin's 2025 peak is nearly double its 2021 peak. But the native on-chain products that exploded in 2021 and 2022 have grown far behind, and the market size has clearly expanded. The question is: who really reaped the dividends? The answer is actually quite simple—one is driven by speculative demand, while the other connects crypto with the real economy. When the market was hovering at a low level not long ago, year-on-year data already told the story clearly: DeFi value locked dropped sharply, and decentralized exchanges and centralized trading were underwayWhy did many people miss out this year, not buying any spot below 60k in June-July, still thinking about the "last dip"? Why do they still not believe that the market is currently on the path of reversal? Because most people are stubbornly comparing it to the 2022 and 2018 bear markets, generally believing that the 2026 bear market will be the same as the previous two and will start in January next year.
In fact, this bear market operates very differently from before. This time, two main down waves were completed in one go, and the final wave fluctuated the least, which fits the characteristics of the tail end of each bear market. Previously, bear markets were drawn out wave by wave, lasting a whole year. June 30 this year is equivalent to November 21, 2022 (the ultimate low of 15443 in 2022). This time, after about 48 days of sideways consolidation at the bottom, there was a sudden breakout. After November 21, 2022, there was also about 48 days of sideways consolidation at the bottom before a breakout on January 1, 2023.
In June-July, I kept reminding that the monthly MACD had already returned to the zero line; how could it possibly fall to a lower position? It's like a plane has already landed—can it still dig underground?
Actually, the signal that the bear market ended at the end of June was not very obvious for BTC; the clearest signals were from SOL and ETH.
Now is the time to cherish this opportunity for a pullback. The pace of the world is getting faster and faster, and opportunities often slip away in your hesitation.Every day I just see you guys talking about these positives 😂
This time the angle given by Grayscale is quite interesting; the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while it’s becoming more like gold, with correlation climbing above 50%.
In other words, the market seems to be starting to treat BTC as a “scarce asset” again, not just moving up and down with the US stock market.
Look at the US debt hitting $40 trillion, and long-term bond yields rising — naturally, capital will start looking for things less dependent on the traditional financial system.
So if BTC can really break out this time, I think the “digital gold” narrative might heat up again.
Just don’t know if with so many positives this time, the price can finally make a move haha A few days ago, there were rumors that Trump was going to launch a new coin, and the market's first reaction was definitely to short old $TRUMP. However, Eric Trump personally denied it, the new coin was canceled, but the short positions had already been taken.
The most valuable part of this kind of news is often not the news itself, but that it helps the main players find their counterparties.
TRUMP rose from 1.37, touched 3.6 in the first phase, then pulled back to around 2.2 and was bought up again. Now it has returned to around 2.7 with volume picking up. I tend to think this is a shakeout before the second phase of the rally, not just a single impulse ending.
There is also the expectation of the Korea Blockchain Week event at the end of September. As long as Trump himself is still at the table, TRUMP will never lack traders.
In the short term, watch 3.6–3.7 first. If it can really break through with volume, then look at 4.5. Calling for 8 now is meaningless; let's see if it can take 3.6 first.$BTC is no longer a junior partner to US stocks; it is becoming an ally of gold.
Grayscale's report throws out a key data point worth every holder reading three times: Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq has dropped from 60% to 33%, while its correlation with gold has surged from 0 to over 50%. In plain terms—Bitcoin is decoupling from US stocks and moving in sync with gold.
Grayscale calls this a "currency devaluation trade" returning. After US Treasury debt surpassed 40 trillion, the market began searching again for assets that can resist fiat currency devaluation. Both Bitcoin and gold have been grouped into the same safe-haven basket.
Looking at gold's movement, $XAU slid from 4700 down to 4611, breaking below the Bollinger middle band at 4620. RSI is between 54-61, and MACD just formed a bearish crossover near the zero line, indicating short-term weakness. But 4550 is strong support; as long as this level holds, the medium-term outlook remains unchanged.
My personal view is that gold's fundamentals are still intact, but Bitcoin is accelerating the diversion of its "store of value" demand. Grayscale puts it plainly—Bitcoin is a scarce alternative to gold. Now that the correlation between the two assets has broken 50%, it means they used to move independently but now influence each other more deeply.
In terms of trading strategy, my approach is simple: for those wanting to go long, enter on a pullback to stabilize around 4580-4590; aggressive traders can try a light position near 4610. If it breaks below 4580, don't rush to bottom-fish; follow the trend with a short position and wait to buy back near 4550.
Remember, Bitcoin and gold are now grasshoppers on the same rope; gold's opposing side has changed. To find out if 4580 will hold and where funds are flowing, comment "1" below—I’m watching the order book and will report in real time.
—Aze #TronMainnetActivatesTVM #PragueOsakaCompatible #GoldUpAbout14PercentInAugustPrevious cycles belonged to the West, so why is Metaplanet confident that the "first Asian cycle" has already begun?
At the Bitcoin Asia conference in Hong Kong, Simon, CEO of the Japanese listed company Metaplanet, made a bold judgment: past cycles belonged to the West, but the first Bitcoin cycle belonging to Asia has already started.
The foundation supporting this view is the resonance between Asia's vast dormant savings and institutional breakthroughs.
Japanese households alone hold $14 trillion in financial assets, half of which lie in zero-interest deposits. Along with South Korea, Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia, this forms the world's deepest pool of patient capital. In contrast, cash accounts for only 13% of household wealth in the United States.
Why hasn't this huge capital entered the market before?
The core reason is not unwillingness to buy, but inability to buy. Japanese retail investors lack local spot ETFs, securities accounts cannot directly hold coins, and pensions are restricted by fixed income mandates. Currently, only 20 listed companies in all of Asia hold coins, with total holdings less than one-tenth of MicroStrategy alone.
But the rules are undergoing dramatic changes. In July, Japan legislated to include Bitcoin under the same regulatory framework as stocks and bonds, reducing individual tax rates from a maximum of 55% to 20%. Compliance channels in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore are also advancing simultaneously.
Once forced sell-offs are cleared, institutional breakthroughs are pushing trillions of dormant funds into the crypto market. This wave of Asian patient capital is very likely to break Wall Street's unilateral monopoly on pricing power.Bitcoin repeatedly fails to break through 82000, $6.4 billion options expiry may not be the catalyst for a breakout
Bitcoin quickly surged from 62000 to around 80000 in just one week, but every attempt to test the 82000 level quickly met selling pressure and a pullback.
Many people tend to focus on K-line signals but put their attention on the huge options contracts about to expire, assuming that the expiry will directly trigger an upward breakout. However, reality may not follow this script.
——
The market rumor that attributes all price fluctuations to options market makers' hedging behavior actually exaggerates the short-term impact of options.
The 75000-82000 price range indeed accumulates a large number of options positions, but options mainly amplify existing market volatility and cannot unilaterally force the price direction.
80000, as a concentration point of positions, experiences short-term back-and-forth oscillations, which is more a result of market bulls and bears disagreement.
Bulls expect to continue pushing higher to realize profits from this rebound; funds entering at high levels are psychologically fragile and tend to exit at slight pullbacks, causing several days of tug-of-war on the chart.
Tomorrow, 81,700 Bitcoin options will expire, with a notional value of $6.44 billion, accounting for one-fifth of Deribit's open interest. Call options at the 75000 and 80000 strikes have the highest proportions.
This batch of positions expiring will indeed clear some old on-exchange speculative chips, but it does not mean resistance will automatically disappear.
——
Although market sentiment has changed, with earlier risk-averse put buyers exiting and call option premiums rising, contracts trading above 82000 have appeared.
However, rising premiums only indicate that some traders are willing to bet on an increase, not that large funds are ready to push prices up.
Once options expire, two realistic possibilities exist. Even if the binding chips disappear, if spot buying momentum is weak, the pressure at 82000 will still persist.
Relying solely on options expiry to confidently break through 82000 and head straight to 85000 USD is overly optimistic.
Going forward, more focus should be on spot capital inflows rather than simply betting on options events to cause major market changes.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $ETH $OKB From Floating Profit to Liquidation Edge: Where Did I Go Wrong Shorting SanDisk? 💸
Last night, Nvidia's earnings report ignited the tech sector, and storage stocks collectively celebrated—SanDisk surged over 3.7% after hours to $1,555. Yet, I opened a short position above $1,502 with 50x leverage.
Trade Review: Entry average price $1,502, 1,800 contracts, margin only 4.83 USDT. Mark price $1,455, floating loss -7.68 USDT (-154%), estimated liquidation price $1,413, just $42 away from liquidation.
Why was I wrong? On August 27, SanDisk announced a joint investment exceeding $31 billion with Kioxia in Japan; JPMorgan set a $2,250 target price. The AI storage narrative is far from over.
Technicals: On the 1-hour chart, MA7 crossed below MA25; resistance above at $1,472-$1,485, strong resistance at $1,500; key support below at $1,440-$1,450.
Lesson: Shorting a stock with over 525% gains this year and a beta as high as 3.26 with 50x leverage is nothing but gambling. It is recommended to reduce positions and stop losses when it rebounds to $1,470-$1,485; do not hold through the position.
For reference only, not investment advice. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SNDK The Treasury can suppress the long end of U.S. debt, but it's difficult to "outlast" the market in the long term.
The U.S. Treasury is currently cooling down long-term yields by issuing more short-term debt and repurchasing long-term debt. This is indeed effective in the short term, essentially artificially altering supply and demand to temporarily narrow the spread between 30-year and 10-year yields.
But the problem is: the Treasury can change the pace, but it's hard to change the trend.
Currently, long-term debt repurchases occur about three times a month, with a maximum single transaction size of $4 billion. In the vast U.S. debt market, the impact remains limited. Past "distortion operations" have also proven this point—policy effects were obvious initially, but after a few months, fundamentals like inflation, economic growth, and capital flows regained dominance.
In simple terms, the Treasury can help "buy some time" for U.S. debt, but it’s hard to decide long-term prices on behalf of the market.
If the market feels that long-term inflation risk is not adequately compensated, or believes that U.S. debt’s effectiveness as a hedge against stocks is declining, private capital may reduce long-term debt allocations. At that point, the buying created by Treasury repurchases can easily be slowly offset by market selling.
Therefore, what truly deserves attention is not whether the Treasury can push yields down, but: under unchanged fundamentals, how long can this suppression last?
In the short term, look at policy; in the long term, it’s still about the market. #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 $BTC real key point
I think next Tuesday
These days, no matter how BTC fluctuates around $80,000, I think it's not the most important.
I'm now more focused on next Tuesday, September 1st.
On that day, the US will release the August ISM Manufacturing PMI. Last month's data surged to 55.6, showing economic resilience much stronger than market expectations. The new data on September 1st will directly affect the market's judgment on the US economy, inflation, and subsequent Federal Reserve policies.
Moreover, following that are ADP employment, ISM services, and then Friday's non-farm payrolls. Next Tuesday is actually the first shot of the week's macro data.
So with BTC holding around $80,000 now, I'm not anxious.
If next week's data doesn't push interest rate expectations hawkish again, and $BTC can hold the chips from these days, I think $84,000 is very likely the next stage.
Next Tuesday is worth watching closely.
#BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies the key level battle $ETH ETFs have also seen nine consecutive inflows, but the liquidation pressure of nearly $900M around $2,386 and $2,613 cannot be ignored; Ajian also observed that a whale who previously profited $61.72M has just re-established about 16K ETH long positions through a new wallet, with a nominal value of about $40M. When slow money from ETFs and fast money from whales appear simultaneously, the trend becomes stronger and the spike longer. If you already hold ETH, there is no need to leverage up just because whales are reopening longs; just observe whether the price movement between $2,386 and $2,613 is driven by spot trading or liquidations Extra: Major event decoded from the Core DAO project team
⚠️ Note: The content is only a compilation of public information and does not constitute any investment advice.
Many people have a major misconception: that Core's official cross-chain bridge supporting multiple EVM chains for asset transfers means a large number of projects are fully migrating to Core. The truth is quite the opposite; almost no projects have completely shut down their original chain operations, with the vast majority only choosing to expand multi-chain layouts.
Core's official bridge connects Ethereum, BNB Chain, Arbitrum, Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, and Base—seven EVM chains—with significant differences in project entry enthusiasm across these chains.
BNB Chain is the public chain with the most projects laying out on Core. Since the second half of 2023, projects like LFGSwap, numerous Meme projects, yield aggregators, ASX Capital, and others have successively deployed on Core. The BSC track is highly competitive with new projects continuously diluting traffic, while Core focuses on the scarce BTCFi narrative, with extremely low EVM-compatible development costs, combined with official Ignition ecosystem incentives. Projects can simultaneously capture BSC's existing users and BTC holders, opening a new growth curve. Ethereum mainly focuses on blue-chip protocol multi-chain expansion, with representative projects like Solv Protocol launching SolvBTC.CORE in October 2024. The Ethereum LST track is fiercely competitive; Core has a native Bitcoin staking system that can form a complete staking and lending business loop, helping Solv reach BTC holders that the Ethereum ecosystem struggles to cover. Infrastructure like oracle Pyth and LayerZero have also been deployed to improve the underlying ecosystem.
Arbitrum has many re-staking and derivatives protocols planning new layouts from late 2024 to 2025. The Arbitrum track focuses on ETH re-staking, with weak BTCFi layout. Core's unique BTC+CORE dual staking mechanism can create differentiated yield products; meanwhile, on-chain fees are lower, making it more suitable for retail DeFi users. Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, and Base have very few mature projects actively laying out, with only sporadic small new projects launching simultaneously. These public chains have their own ecosystem support policies, native assets mainly ETH-based, lacking BTC existing funds, and projects have little motivation to expand externally.
Projects willing to lay out on Core have a clear core logic: most EVM public chains compete around the Ethereum ecosystem, while Core is a scarce BTCFi underlying track with a differentiated narrative; smart contract changes are minimal, development costs are controllable; and it can also capture incremental funds brought by the BTC hashrate narrative.
It is necessary to clarify a key concept here: asset cross-chain channels only facilitate token transfers for users and do not equal ecosystem migration. Core's current leading applications Colend and Pell Network are native development projects, not migrated from external public chains.
Track dividends ultimately rely on continuous implementation and realization. Ongoing observation of project activity and real on-chain fee income will determine whether ecosystem expansion can convert into long-term value.
#CORE #BTCFi #PublicChainEcosystem $BTC tonight at 22:00 Beijing time (10:00 EDT) will have its Jackson Hole debut by Waller, combined with the morning's 6.44 billion options (81,700 contracts) just finished hedging—BTC is currently stuck at 79,950. This needle at the 80K threshold is the bulls and bears' last showdown. This is not a prediction; the market is handing the choice to the new chairman's words.
The market snapshot on the eve of the showdown (morning of 8/28)
Price: 79,950, psychological barrier at 80K + 80K Call concentrated exercise (15.7 billion nominal) forms a double wall
On-chain: short-term holders' cost at 68.5K, true market average at 75.8K, current price above cost line = holders overall profitable, but not yet at the “bull market confirmation” 82.5K (50-week EMA)
ETF: net inflow for 8 consecutive days about 2.8 billion USD, serving as the floor for not breaking 80K, but not a rocket to 85K
Sentiment: Fear & Greed index at 71 (Greed), risk of “selling the fact” rises after options expiry
Macro: July PCE at 3.7% is slightly hot, 9/16 FOMC is 18 days away, CME shows 61.6% chance of no change in September, 38.4% chance of rate hike
Bull/Bear determination line (based on tonight’s 4-hour close)
🔥 Bull confirmation (standing sword)
Waller leans dovish (mentions soft employment, no explicit rate hike, tacit approval of stablecoins) → BTC breaks 81,085 50-week EMA and holds 4h close
Extension: 83K → 85K → revisit 90K, ETH breaks 2,550 confirming rotation, altcoin season lights up
Characterization: short squeeze rebound upgrades to “bear tail reversal,” bull return possible
🐻 Bear tail extension (broken sword)
Waller leans hawkish (signals “rate hikes on the table,” Higher for Longer) → BTC breaks 79K hourly close and fails to recover → strong support test at 77K
Break 77K to target 75–76K (75K Call concentration zone), weekly break 74K to 68–70K (200-day MA)
Characterization: this August rally from 62.8K to 81.2K is all a B-wave rebound, bear market not over
🌫 Zombie market (sword sheathed)
Waller’s strategy ambiguous (removes forward guidance, discusses financial innovation/stablecoin regulation) → 80K ±3% sideways until September PCE
Characterization: neither bull nor bear, a “macro pricing power vacuum,” weaving a web between 74–81K
The bull or bear is not in this needle now, but in the three jumps: Waller’s wording at 22:00–22:15 → 4h close at 22:30 → weekly positioning tomorrow morning.
Instant pump or dump are algorithms listening for keywords, don’t place orders at 22:05.
Three scenario operations (for tonight only)
Dovish + close above 81,085: lightly go long, stop loss at 79,800, target 83–85K
Hawkish + break 79K and fail to recover: reduce to 30–50%, wait for 75.5K to see ETF catch
Ambiguous sideways 79–81K: do nothing, let 9/16 FOMC choose for the market
Dark line (more severe than interest rates)
This year’s JH theme is “Financial Innovation,” with stablecoins over 230 billion + GENIUS Act + tokenized deposits on the table.
If Waller says “private stablecoins are better than CBDCs” = biggest institutional gift to crypto in 3 years, BTC benefits from liquidity expectations, ETH benefits from settlement layer premium; if he says “Fed will expand authority to regulate issuers” = short-term negative. This dark line decides whether the bull is a water buffalo or a structural bull. $BTC $SOL has never lacked attention, but sustainable value remains the key question.
Fast, cheap, and active across DEXs, stablecoins, Memes, and consumer apps, Solana is also improving network reliability.
But Meme-driven activity still dominates. Long-term valuation depends on 3 things: stablecoin growth, stronger non-Meme revenue, and consistent institutional inflows.
If all improve, $SOL could evolve from a high-beta asset into core crypto infrastructure.
#WalshPolicyFramework The market has been very chaotic recently, with prices fluctuating back and forth, bulls and bears repeatedly taking profits. I don't know how to proceed next.
Currently, the market is simultaneously affected by multiple events: Nvidia's earnings release, Jackson Hole speech by Powell, the crypto industry conference, and Trump coin unlocking and cashing out. The market is being pulled back and forth, with frequent two-way cleansing by bulls and bears.
One firm judgment: this is not a bull market yet; essentially, it is an institution-led market for cutting retail investors' losses.
In such an environment, how can one avoid becoming the retail investor being harvested, or even seize the opportunity to reverse and profit from institutions?
I have analyzed and organized a clear and executable trading strategy for the past week:
Main line: $TRUMP
Rely on the emotional volatility caused by the unlocking event for short-term speculation, capturing two to three opportunities daily to quickly realize profits, without lingering in trades, quickly arbitraging event-driven market moves.
Secondary line: $XRP
Positioned for long-term layout, buying in batches at low points (direction is short, holding for at least about one month), medium to long term.
US stocks short-term (36-hour window)
$NVDA Nvidia, SanDisk, Intel, AMD, only very short-term trades, strictly based on information and market sentiment.
Regarding tonight's Jackson Hole speech, do not have high expectations. It is very certain that this speech will most likely be standard political rhetoric with no clear signals of rate cuts or hikes in the short term. The tone will be to soothe the market: acknowledging current economic pressures while signaling a regulatory safety net to stabilize market sentiment, without any heavy information that would change the market trend.I just re-examined the market, macro factors, and capital flow side together. At this point in time, my definition of the market is no longer simple: "BTC and ETH have plummeted." Instead, after a rapid pullback from the high, the market is entering a direction-selection phase. BTC is currently around $79,400, peaked at $81,280 today, and then hit a low of about $79,030. In other words, from the intraday high, BTC has pulled back nearly 2.3%. ETH is currently around $2,490–$2,500, with today's high around $2,534 and low around $2,479. The short-term period has clearly weakened, but for now, we can't judge the end of the major rally solely based on today's drop. Let's start with BTC: BTC is clearly weak in the short term. The biggest issue today isn't how much it has dropped. It's that after surging from 81,280, it didn't continue to expand upward. Instead, it fell back down below 80,000. This move shows that selling pressure around 81,000 is real. After a continuous rise earlier, a large amount of unrealized profit was accumulated. When the price couldn't break through for a long time: profit-taking orders were realized
→ Short-term bulls exited
→ Fell below 80,000
→ Stop-loss trigger
→ The decline accelerated. So today's round of decline is more likely to be understood as: concentrated risk release after the rise. But right now, we can't directly say "the major cycle is turning bearish."Walsh will appear tonight at Jackson Hole; the real risk is not whether interest rates will be cut, but how he defines "inflation" exactly.
The market has already largely priced in the usual storyline of "whether rates will be cut," so tonight's real point of contention is how Walsh will redefine the Fed's framework for viewing "inflation"—this will determine whether rate hikes are truly locked away in the toolbox.
This is why the market has been so sensitive recently, because if Walsh adjusts the inflation assessment criteria, the entire asset pricing logic must be redone.
🔍 Core risk: Walsh's "inflation framework" is being reconstructed
The market is nervous because since Walsh took office, he has sent ambiguous signals about how inflation is measured:
· Possible change in the "inflation yardstick": Traditionally, the Fed looks at core $PCE, but Walsh hinted in July that after January next year, the inflation framework might be adjusted to consider broader indicators (such as trimmed mean $PCE). Under the new metric, inflation figures would "look better," giving more room for policy.
· From "observing inflation" to "defining inflation": Walsh has emphasized the need to distinguish between "one-off price changes" and "persistent underlying inflation," believing only the latter warrants monetary policy intervention. This theoretical distinction directly affects whether he will act on the current high inflation data.
📉 Three market scenarios tonight (key focus)
Based on possible answers he might give, the market has set three reaction paths:
1. Hawkish (clear fight against inflation): If he clearly states defending the 2% target and commits to rate hikes if necessary. Short-term rates rise, the dollar strengthens, but risk assets may come under pressure.
2. Dovish (expectation of framework adjustment): If he is vague or hints at adjusting the inflation target. Term premiums soar, long-term bonds are sold off (yields rise), possibly supporting gold and cryptocurrencies as inflation hedges.
3. Neutral (communication repair): If he clearly explains the policy framework and removes uncertainty. Market risk premiums fall, benefiting stocks and emerging markets stability.
💎 Conclusion: Uncertainty premium
Currently, the market leans more toward neutral-hawkish bets; the key is how he characterizes the "surge in long-term yields." The current market pricing includes an "uncertainty premium"—traders don't know the Fed's next move and demand higher risk compensation. If tonight he can clarify this "inflation," that will be the real reassurance; if he remains vague, tonight's volatility could be greater than the rate cut itself. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies the key level battle
80,000 didn't hold, plunged all the way back to 79,000, let's see what Powell says tonight.
Last night $BTC slid from around 81,500 down to 79,000, dropping over 2,000 dollars directly; the 80,000 level hasn't been firmly secured yet. The gains pushed up by short covering and ETF inflows couldn't hold once profit-taking kicked in.
Currently, neither bulls nor bears dare to move, all waiting for Fed Chair Powell's first speech at Jackson Hole at 10 PM tonight, which is the biggest variable tonight. Also, about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options on Deribit expire today; market makers' gamma hedging may amplify volatility, and the price might be "nailed" near 80,000 or accelerate through it.
Let's first see how Powell sets the tone tonight, then decide the next move. Market Brief: Jackson Hole Speech Approaching, Market Awaits Fed Policy Signals
Market Overview
At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, the new Federal Reserve Chair, Wash, will deliver his first major public speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, an event with high volatility risk.
Current Background: U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and inflation is still away from policy targets. Wash tends to downplay forward guidance, hoping the market will independently judge based on economic data. The market is focused on his statements regarding inflation and interest rates.
Scenario Forecast: If the speech avoids interest rate topics and only discusses long-term economic issues, the market will still interpret silence as a policy signal. This speech will impact interest rate expectations and U.S. Treasuries, linking to U.S. stocks, crypto, and all risk assets.
Post Viewpoint: Inflation remains the core variable; currency depreciation will weaken the dollar, benefiting risk assets; AI remains the long-term tech theme. The current volatility is just a process of market conflict and game theory. It is considered a good time to position in tech stocks, focusing on SNDK, TSLA, GOOGL.
Market Logic
Jackson Hole is a heavyweight macro event; even slight changes in speech wording can trigger intense market fluctuations.
There are two competing forces in the market: on one hand, concerns about sticky inflation maintaining high rates suppressing assets; on the other, bets on the long-term AI industry logic, treating pullbacks as buying opportunities. Event-driven market uncertainty is very high, and both bulls and bears remain cautious before the speech. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
Kansas Fed's Schmied says inflation is stubborn, current rates are insufficient to push inflation back to 2%, does not recommend betting on a rate cut by year-end, committee discussion focuses on maintaining high rates or continuing to raise them. Boston Fed's Collins mentioned that a short-term drop in inflation is far from enough; if inflation rebounds, restarting rate hikes will be necessary.
Affected by these remarks, US Treasury yields rose slightly, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets came under pressure. However, BTC and ETH have continuous net inflows from ETFs supporting the market, preventing a crash.
Tonight at 22:00, Wash's keynote speech at Jackson Hole is critical and will directly impact September rate expectations.
Practical reminder: The first 10-30 minutes after the speech is released are prone to false breakouts; do not open new leverage positions during the pulse phase. Wait 1-2 hours and reassess the market after US Treasury trends stabilize. Breaking alert! Tonight at Jackson Hole, the biggest risk in the entire event is not a rate cut!
At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, Fed's Waller makes his Jackson Hole debut with a major appearance! The whole internet is betting on whether there will be a rate cut in September, but this completely misses the point! The real life-or-death question tonight: how will the Fed redefine inflation?
The current market environment is extremely fragmented and hides huge shock risks! U.S. employment resilience exceeds expectations, initial claims data have fallen consecutively, unemployment rate has stabilized, and there are no signs of recession in the economy. But inflation stubbornly remains high; July PCE has stayed steady at 3.7% for two consecutive months, core PCE continues above 3%, far from the 2% policy target, and the inflation problem is far from solved!
The biggest uncertainty in the market right now has never been a single rate hike or cut, but the Fed's ambiguous policy framework!
If Waller leans hawkish, emphasizing the risk of high inflation and maintaining expectations of policy tightening, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strongly rebound! BTC, which has risen above the 80,000 mark with a net inflow of 2.8 billion on the 8th via ETFs, and gold, which is oscillating at high levels, will immediately face profit-taking sell-offs and sharp short-term corrections!
If Waller signals moderation, acknowledges high long-end yields and high debt pressure, and slows the pace of tightening, market risk appetite will fully continue, and the rebound in various assets will keep fermenting!
Even more fatal is the current strange pattern: short-term rates are controlled by the Fed, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields remain above 4.6%, and long-end yields rise autonomously. Waller's stance on high inflation, high debt, and high long-end yields is far more deadly than a single rate decision!
$BTC $ETH The global popularity of digital currencies is essentially due to people with different needs and circles entering the market one after another, collectively supporting a trillion-yuan market. Many people trade only by looking at candlesticks and ignore the market fluctuations; essentially, it is the result of the competition among different player groups. Different groups have completely different motivations, trading habits, and risk preferences, and their behavior directly determines short-term market fluctuations. This article breaks down mainstream crypto players into eight major categories, analyzing their operational logic from underlying needs, differentiating them from previous trading strategies and historical science articles. 1. Long-Term Belief in Crypto Hoarders: Asset Allaborators Fighting Inflation This group is the most steadfast grassroots players in the crypto world, mostly having experienced a full bull and bear cycle. Their core entry logic is decentralization, combating fiat over-issuance, and asset risk avoidance. Their holdings are highly concentrated, heavily holding BTC and ETH, rarely touching coins, mainly spot dollar-priced, long-term holding, and rarely using contract leverage. They don't care about short-term price swings or intraday oscillations, treating Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge against currency depreciation risks caused by global central bank quantitative easing. Demographics: middle class and above, overseas asset allocation needs, low trust in traditional financial systems, holding cycles in years, no panic cutting when prices fall, and few take-profits when rising, serving as the market's long-term ballast stone. Many of their holdings are held in cold wallets, which won't circulate in the short term, have little impact on market liquidity, but they determine the long-term bottom support for the coin. 2. High-frequency contract speculators: The gamer chasing short-term fluctuations This is the most active and sentimental in the market🇰🇷 SK Hynix: The True Leader in AI Storage, or Just Overpunished?
US ADR ($xSKHY) is quoted at $161.61, and Korean stock 000660 is around 1.67 million KRW. This stock has pulled back over 40% from its high of 2.98 million KRW this year, but I believe what’s falling is expectations, not fundamentals.
Hard data: Q2 revenue of 79.3 trillion KRW, operating profit of 60.5 trillion, profit margin 76%, all-time highs; HBM4 mass production started in Q2, HBM4E samples are underway; the most explosive news is the 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation plan, reducing about 3.3% of shares outstanding, directly boosting per-share value. The average target price from 10 institutions is $253, so there’s still room from the current price.
DRAM export unit prices rose about 400% year-over-year, HBM supply-demand gap can last until 2027–28, and the price hike cycle hasn’t peaked yet.
Opinion: The "water seller" of AI storage, the long-term logic is solid. But I remind you, after ADR listing, about $26.5 billion of shares loosened + 2x leveraged ETF unwinding, short-term volatility is scary. Honestly, I both love and fear this stock, so scaling in is more comfortable than going all in 😮💨
#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动