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Yesterday's crash, have institutions really started to withdraw? The answer from ETFs is a bit different.
Yesterday's sell-off was indeed fierce, but today I'm actually more focused on one piece of data.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF still had a net inflow of about $242 million on August 27, maintaining inflows for 9 consecutive trading days; on August 28, it suddenly turned to a net outflow of about $49.7 million.
Note, this is not the so-called "institutions fleeing wildly," the amount is actually not particularly large.
But the issue is, it happened exactly on the day of the market's sharp decline.
This is worth observing.
Previously, BTC surged from over 60,000 back up to around 80,000, with ETF funds continuously flowing in, and market risk appetite clearly warming up.
Now the price suddenly dropped sharply, and ETF funds have also turned for the first time.
So we can't directly say institutions have changed direction yet, but at least it shows: after yesterday's drop, funds have started to diverge.
This is also the most important point to watch over the weekend.
If ETFs resume net inflows next week, then yesterday's crash might be more about macro news and short-term leverage being released; but if funds continue to flow out, and BTC and ETH rebounds weaken, then the nature of this correction might change.
Don't rush to guess the bottom now, first see how institutional funds actually choose. #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 $BTC $ETH 🔥 $CORE has a story, but the market is only asking one question right now: Where's the money?
$CORE is still hovering around $0.025, with low trading volume and no clear price direction.
The future painted by Core DAO is actually quite enticing — the 2026 "Revenue Era": BTC staking, SatPay, and AMP bringing real income, then capturing $CORE value through a buyback mechanism; Rev+ also plans to share part of the Gas revenue with developers.
Sounds comprehensive.
But investors won’t pay forever for the "future." Ultimately, it comes down to when the revenue, users, and capital truly arrive. 👀
Currently, application revenue is about $59K/month, on-chain Gas revenue is only a few hundred dollars, and SatPay is still in the testing phase. Meanwhile, whether the $150M BTC involved in Maple settlements can be smoothly returned is also worth watching.
So right now, $CORE is a bit like:
The story is written, the business model is laid out, but the market is still waiting for the first real "money" to prove it all.
📉 Key support: $0.018
📈 If revenue and the ecosystem start to truly deliver, $0.035–$0.04 is worth watching.
The real question now isn’t:
"Is this story big enough?"
But rather:
🔥 "When will this story actually start making money?"
#DailyOrbit #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold correlation strengthens
BTC is in a high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with increasing correlation to gold
This morning's market: BTC around 77700, ETH 2440, $SOL 104. Gold also weakened in sync, dropping to 4453.
After the somewhat hawkish speech by Powell, US Treasury yields rose, putting pressure on non-yielding assets.
Previously, gold as a safe haven and BTC trading often moved inversely; now institutions treat both as scarce inflation-hedging assets, so macro news easily causes them to rise and fall together. But correlation is just a capital behavior, not a price guarantee; at high levels, divergence is large, and volatile spikes will increase.
Personally, I still believe the bull market will gradually return, but don't blindly bet on direction just because gold moves. Minimize short-term trading, hold spot steadily, and control your actions while waiting for clearer direction.
This is just a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. In short, the core conclusion: Wash has sent a hawkish signal, rate hike expectations are rebounding, gold and crypto are being sold off simultaneously, and the market has entered a phase of short-term risk pricing. Overnight global macro: Fed Chair Wash stated at Jackson Hole that inflation remains resilient and further rate hikes are not ruled out, causing US Treasury yields to rise sharply and the dollar to strengthen. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, with technology stocks becoming fragmented, and Nvidia plunging; Spot gold plunged nearly 3% in a single day, falling below the 4500 mark, while crude oil fluctuated slightly and retreated. Crypto Market Overview: BTC quickly retraced above 80,000, hitting a low near 77,100, with a 24-hour drop of over 3.5%. Bulls took profits and leveraged selling was concentrated; ETH followed the broader market weakening, overall volatility amplified, and market panic quickly intensified. Liquidity Side: Last week, BTC-ETFs recorded large weekly inflows, but the cumulative outflow for the year remains net outflows. ETH staking and locked positions remain high, with exchange-sellable tokens continuously declining. Short-term inflows are mainly focused on short-term chasing, resulting in weak position stability. Regulatory and Industry News: The case of TRUMP coin's sharp rise and fall once again warns that meme coins are extremely risky, with project holdings highly concentrated, making ordinary investors prone to significant losses. Next, focus on the persistence of US Treasury yields, the effectiveness of BTC 76,800 support, and subsequent statements on US inflation. $BTC $ETH #杰克逊霍尔讲话 #BTC高位回调 #宏观利率扰动 ⚠️ These are personal market views and do not constitute investment advice; contract trading risks are extremely high#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
Today's sole male lead is Kevin Warsh. This Federal Reserve chairman crushed global risk assets with one sentence at Jackson Hole. The core message is huge: inflation is still too high, the 2% target cannot be relaxed, the financial environment is not tight enough, and we still have work to do. The market immediately repriced the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to 55%-60%. The two-year US Treasury yield rose 12 basis points to break 4.36%, the US dollar index jumped to 99.7, gold crashed 3% in a single day to below $4455, and silver fell over 4%.
The crypto market became a disaster zone. According to CoinGlass data, 96,800 people were liquidated globally in 24 hours, amounting to about $474 million, with longs taking the majority. $BTC Bitcoin dropped to 77,400, Ethereum fell below 2500, and $SOL, XRP, Dogecoin, and $HYPE all fell over 4%. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold rose to 89%, indicating this wave is purely macro-driven, not some crypto-specific drama.
An interesting detail: mining companies fared worse than Bitcoin, with MARA and RIOT both down about 8%, clearly due to month-end profit-taking and position adjustments. But spot ETFs remained steady, with IBIT down only 1.8%. This institutional stance clearly shows they are using the macro environment to shake out positions.
A reminder to brothers: before the rate hike expectations materialize, leverage is a meat grinder. In times like these, staying alive is more important than making money. Don't bet on the Fed's words with high-leverage longs or shorts. Wait for the PCE data before the September 16 FOMC meeting to see the direction clearly The macro card table
After Wash's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, the probability of a September rate hike jumped directly from 35% to 50%-60%. U.S. Treasury yields rose, and risk assets came under broad pressure.
Bitcoin fell back from above 81,000, essentially repricing macro expectations. As long as the sword of rate hikes still hangs, any so-called "bottom" is just a temporary respite.
So where is the bottom?
No one can give you an exact number. But we can outline a framework:
First line of defense: 75,000-76,000. This is the first major support widely recognized by technical analysts. If volume contracts and stabilizes here, it could be a short-term bottom.
Second line of defense: 72,000-73,000. If 75,000 doesn't hold, this is the next structural zone.
Third line of defense: 68,000-70,000. This is the liquidity extension zone mentioned by Maartunn and considered by many analysts as a "deep target."
Extreme scenario: 49,000-53,000. If all 10 surrender indicators from Glassnode are triggered, some analysts believe the bottom could be in this range. But note: this is not a prediction, it is an extreme scenario if the worst-case happens.
The real bottom is never a price but a process. It is leverage clearing, the weak exiting, sellers exhausting, and someone quietly accumulating when no one is paying attention.
If 76,000 breaks, who’s next? The ETF market is closed this weekend, with no institutional buying support. This weekend could be the moment to test the market’s mettle.
Don’t guess the bottom. Let the market tell you. $ETH $SOL $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK 2.8美元的TRUMP，你要追吗？ 先看表面：10天涨160%，散户疯狂追高喊特朗普牛 8月13日见底1.37，然后一波暴力拉升，10天内最高摸到3.6，涨幅170%。白宫加密峰会、CLARITY法案被提起、"新币"谣言引爆FOMO. RSI超买、CCI偏高、成交量异常放大，过热反弹后的高位震荡 第一件事："新币"谣言拉盘，辟谣后出货——剧本太熟了 有账号放风"特朗普要发新币"，现货从1.4直接打到3.6，散户FOMO冲进去。Eric Trump随后定性：没有新币，说要发的是骗局。价格应声回落 谣言拉盘、证伪出货，这条流水线在这个币上已经跑了无数次。散户还在冲"特朗普牛"，内部关联钱包已经把代币转去OK套现了数百万美元 第二件事：白宫开会是真的，但开会不等于拉盘 特朗普在白宫见加密高管、催国会推进市场结构法案，叙事上把"亲加密总统"重新点亮。这确实是利好。利好兑现了，然后呢？ CLARITY法案是程序性进展，不是落地。9月中旬如果有进展，还会再给一次情绪脉冲，但脉冲后大概率还是卖。meme币最怕的不是没人买，是内部在你冲进去的时候卖 第三件事：技术面出现了一个必须重视的信号 从1.37🚨 CORE HAS A BIG STORY… BUT WHERE’S THE MONEY?
$CORE is sitting around $0.025, with weak volume and basically no direction.
Core DAO’s 2026 “Revenue Era” sounds exciting: real fees from BTC staking, SatPay and AMP could eventually be used for CORE buybacks, while Rev+ aims to share gas-fee revenue with developers.
The logic sounds good on paper.
But here’s the problem: the revenue needs to actually show up.
📉 App fees are only around $59K/month
#DailyOrbit Fidelity has started trimming its BTC exposure, while Grayscale has now posted outflows for two straight sessions. But there's an important difference this time 👀 BlackRock continues to attract steady inflows, showing that institutional demand hasn't disappeared—it has simply become more selective. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still holding positive net flows overall, but the relentless buying pressure that fueled the run toward $81K is clearly slowing. Now all eyes are on the Fed. 🏦 A hawkish tone c"Charles Schwab Opens Access to SOL and LINK for 39 Million Stock Accounts: Why Is the Brokerage Managing $12 Trillion in Old Money Rushing to Expand Its Crypto Shelf?"
Charles Schwab, managing over $12 trillion in assets, has just announced it will list SOL, AVAX, and LINK on its U.S. stock platform.
Nearly 39 million U.S. stock accounts, which usually trade only stocks, will soon be able to buy and sell public chain tokens directly within the same native interface.
The three tokens have distinct roles: representing high-frequency on-chain interactions, major bank tokenized subnets, and price oracles that bring real-world assets on-chain.
A 0.75% fee allows the brokerage to earn substantial gross profits, while investors save the hassle of managing private keys and can generate tax forms with one click.
After the announcement, large holders quickly withdrew over 300,000 SOL from exchanges to prepare for staking, signaling the dismantling of physical isolation between off-exchange funds and public chains. $SOL Looking again at on-chain data: the real bottom signal hasn't sounded yet
Glassnode's data is even more sobering—only 2 out of 10 surrender indicators have been triggered.
What does this mean? The market is still in the "surrender phase," but far from "surrender complete." The cost basis for short-term holders has dropped to about $68,500, below the real market average of about $75,800. This means a large amount of short-term chips are already at a loss but haven't been sold off yet—the sell-off wave hasn't arrived.
The 90-day moving average of realized profit and loss ratio is 0.75, while historically this indicator usually falls below 0.5 before seller exhaustion. True seller exhaustion has not yet appeared. The Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, indicating that demand in the US spot market has not yet returned.
On the other hand, miners are indeed under pressure: nearly 22.7% of ASIC miners are operating at a loss. But the miner surrender indicator is close to the bottom level seen after the FTX collapse—this precisely suggests the bottom may still be brewing, not yet finished. $SOL $ETH $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK Here's the most intriguing case today: the CFTC fined a former White House teleprompter operator $170,000—he traded contracts on Kalshi about whether Trump would mention a certain word in his speech because he had early access to the script while at work. In trading terms, this boils down to one thing: information asymmetry is always the most expensive edge. Retail investors ask me every day, "What do you think?" But those who consistently make money aren't the ones who predict better—they're the ones positioned earlier in the information chain. If you don't have that position, don't bet against insider plays; just wait patiently until the situation is clear before making a move. Prediction markets look fun, but the waters are deeper than you think. Have you ever fallen into this kind of trap? On-chain is speaking: ETH is being taken home, BTC is still sitting at the exchange entrance
On the 28th, the market twisted again near $80,000.
During the day, BTC surged past $81,000, but was knocked back by the hawkish speech at Jackson Hole in the evening, causing nearly $500 million in liquidations on leverage. On the surface, it looks like a macro slap, but on-chain data tells the other half of the story clearly.
First, look at institutions. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for eight or nine consecutive trading days, with $240 million added on August 27 alone. This rebound window has cumulatively attracted over $2 billion. The money is genuinely coming in, not just pure sentiment.
Next, look at inventory. Santiment data is even more striking: from early June to August 27, the amount of ETH on exchanges dropped by about 1.4 million, a decline of 18%. Even during the rise, ETH was still being moved out, indicating it’s not panic selling but shifting chips away from positions "ready to sell anytime." In the same period, BTC exchange balances slightly increased by 0.25%. In short: ETH holders have taken their coins home, while a significant portion of BTC is still left on the counters.
Looking further up, the $81,000 to $86,000 range is a dense cost zone and a cluster of short liquidations. Glassnode marked this early on: this rebound from the mid-August low is about 26%, starting from the largest short liquidation in recent years on August 19, then pushed up by ETF and spot buying. It’s no surprise it’s stuck at this supply wall.
Nearby, there are two other on-chain movements: Binance saw the largest XRP withdrawals in half a year, about 231 million leaving; on Solana’s side, Charles Schwab plans to add SOL, AVAX, and LINK to its platform, combined with a recent governance vote passing, clearly shifting capital attention toward the ecosystem side.
The fisherman's view is simple: prices can twist back in a day, but inventory relocation won’t reverse in a day. ETFs are absorbing, ETH is being hidden, and sell orders still pile up above $80,000. When the lake surface fogs up, don’t just watch the buoy bobbing—look underwater to see who’s reeling in the line.
This is not a trade call. Around $80,000, leverage should be reduced first; spot and dollar-cost averaging are more stable than chasing highs. On-chain has already shown its stance—who’s in a hurry to sell, who plans to hold coins longer, the ledger is more honest than slogans.#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens
8.29
🚨 After BTC broke through 80,000, it is oscillating at a high level. Is it quietly "transforming"?
After BTC stood above $80,000, bulls and bears are fighting fiercely! ETFs are buying, profit-taking is happening, and leveraged shorts are increasing positions. Many are panicking: is this a top or a consolidation?
💡 Core signal: Don’t just look at the candlesticks, understand the underlying logic shift
Pay attention to a key data point: Grayscale shows BTC’s correlation with gold has surged from 0 at the start of the year to over 50%, while its correlation with Nasdaq has dropped to 33%.
What does this mean? BTC is evolving from a "tech stock shadow" to "digital gold"! Funds no longer treat it purely as a high-risk tech stock but are starting to use it as a hedge against currency devaluation. This high-level oscillation is essentially a huge "market maker switch"—from short-term speculators to long-term institutional allocators.
Your trading strategy:
For bulls: As long as ETFs continue net inflows, spot support remains. The current oscillation is digesting profit-taking; don’t be easily shaken out, but be wary of short-term shocks from rising macro interest rates.
For observers: Since the logic is changing, don’t view new highs with old perspectives. If it truly becomes "digital gold," its valuation system will benchmark against gold’s market cap, with a completely different space for imagination.
Soul-searching question
Do you think BTC should now be treated as a "high-volatility tech stock" for swing trading, or as "digital gold" for long-term holding? Share your judgment in the comments!Many people focus only on revenue and EPS in Nvidia's earnings report, but I think the real story is the gross margin. It was still 75% in Q2, but the Q3 guidance drops directly to 74%. Even Nvidia itself admits that rising prices for HBM and server memory are eating into profits.
This is actually a pretty clear signal: AI demand is no longer just about stacking GPU computing power; it’s starting to propagate up the entire industry chain. Musk previously said spcx counts as an AI company, and I feel he might have more moves coming, worth keeping an eye on.
In the past two years, everyone was scrambling for GPUs; now it’s HBM and server memory prices rising, and storage manufacturers are gaining strength. Companies like Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix, which sell the "shovel accessories," might actually benefit from the next wave of profits.
But this is just the beginning. When AI computing power truly expands, money will continue to flow into software, cloud services, AI agents, and enterprise applications.
So now I’m less inclined to stubbornly focus on Nvidia. Hardware benefits from computing power expansion, storage benefits from volume and price increases, and software benefits from AI’s real-world monetization. The further we go, the more opportunities there may be across the industry chain. $SNDK On August 11, 2026, the BTC Seller Exhaustion Index entered the "Extreme Exhaustion Zone" (red area) for the first time. On the same day, $BTC was at $63,000......
As an indicator based on "volatility and high losses" to monitor the market supply side, it has performed well in the past three bear markets.
Now, it has left the extreme zone, meaning Signal 1 has ended.
That tweet had 133 comments. I was glad to see some friends say they have already gotten on board! You chose to trust my judgment and also trust BTC.
I say "thank you" on behalf of BTC;
BTC will never let down anyone who trusts it!
Some friends said they would wait for Signal 2 to appear before getting on board. I imagine you might be very frustrated at this moment.
Because that was almost the last clear opportunity before this round of rally.
Will there be a Signal 2?...... I think so!
Not because historically there have always been Signals 1 and 2, but because the ebb and flow itself is a natural law; now that it has gone up, next time it will definitely come down.
But the question is: we don’t know where BTC’s price will start (fall) and end when Signal 2 appears next time.
If it falls from 80k to 60k, the indicator will drop; if it falls from 100k to 80k, the indicator will also drop. If it’s the latter, would you still dare to buy even if the signal appears?
I once summarized: looking at history, the certainty of Signal 2 is higher than Signal 1.
But the risk is that the price at Signal 2 might also be higher than at Signal 1 (see quote).
Now, this realistic problem is right in front of us.
So, personally, I think from now on, you should forget that BTC recently touched the 60k or 50k range, and instead remember BTC at $126,000.
Any short-term fluctuations now can be ignored in front of this number.
What you are missing now is just a small segment of the bear-bull transition period, not an entire bull market!
But if you keep dwelling on the regret and hesitation of "why not go all in at 50k or 60k," then next time, and the time after that, you won’t be able to get on board either.
Then you will really miss an entire cycle......The week is almost over, and my contracts have barely moved—many people can't stand this "inaction." But the most important lesson this week is exactly this: Jackson Hole Wash put the hawkish stance on the table, and the market immediately split the September rate hike odds 50/50, with $BTC dropping more than 3% in one day. But do you want to say this is doomsday? Not necessarily. The comment from CICC was quite on point—the market is not lacking liquidity now, but policy predictability. My strategy is simple: hold long-term spot positions that I understand and can hold, and only bet short-term bullets when the situation is clear; if the situation is unclear, fold. This is not cowardice, it's discipline. This week, did you hold on, or were you worn out by the back-and-forth?$BTC brothers, that strike in the early morning was really ruthless.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell directly dropped a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, saying inflation (PCE YoY 3.7%) is still too high, the 2% target remains unwavering, and the financial environment is not yet restrictive. The implication is that rate hikes are not over. The market immediately understood, with the probability of a September rate hike soaring from 35% to about 60%, the two-year Treasury yield surged to 4.36%, and the US dollar index jumped to 99.7. As a result, Bitcoin crashed from 81,000 down to around 77,400, dropping about 3.3% in 24 hours, and even gold collapsed by 3%. The correlation between BTC and gold once reached 89%.
Technically, the intraday low around 76,800 has become the most critical support now, with the next support at the psychological 75,000 level. On the upside, first watch 79,100 (50% retracement), then 81,000 and 82,700 weekly resistance, with the real watershed near the 83,000 365-day moving average. The weekly RSI is still at 58, so the structure is actually not broken.
Interestingly, spot ETF funds have not followed the sell-off. On August 27, net inflows were about $242 million, marking the ninth consecutive day of inflows. The cumulative net inflow in August has already exceeded $3 billion, led by BlackRock's IBIT. Prices are falling, institutions are buying; I've seen this kind of divergence many times, often a characteristic of a bottom area. Don't try to catch the falling knife in the short term; wait until 76,900 holds. For the long term, institutions are holding this meal for you. After Bitcoin surged and then retreated, a signal that was easily overlooked appeared on-chain: the Bitcoin network stress index has fallen back to a very low level. This indicator combines on-chain transaction fees, total network hashrate, active tokens among holders, and other multidimensional data. The historical pattern is interesting: whenever this indicator hits a low point, it often signals a turning point in a new market cycle. It is not a direct bullish or bearish signal, but rather a reminder that market calm is only temporary. The volatility of subsequent rallies is likely to increase, with both sharp rises and falls possible (big orders are coming). A simple breakdown of the underlying logic: when the market is highly volatile, transfers, turnovers, and position adjustments increase, on-chain fees soar, and the network stress index rises. But now the index has fallen to a very low level, indicating that short-term market trading enthusiasm cools. Both bulls and bears are temporarily watching and trading stalls. Volume shrinkage and calmness are usually the prelude to major volatility. Here's a key point: low network pressure ≠ will definitely lead to a rebound. It only means the market has entered a sensitive observation period. Other signals are needed to confirm the direction. So next, focus on three things: First, the flow of funds in spot ETFs—see whether institutions keep buying or start to withdraw; Second, whether macro variables like US Treasury yields and inflation data will disturb the market again; Third, whether major players on the chain are transferring funds or moving shares differently—are whales starting to concentrate or sell shares? At this stage, there's no need to rush to draw bullish or bearish conclusions. Just treat this signal as a warning. When the network pressure index is low, try to minimize high-leverage operations and other market choices8.29 Early Market Analysis: Hawkish Landing Triggers Broad Pullback
Last night’s Jackson Hole speech was much tougher than expected, delivering a heavy blow to the bulls who had been oscillating at high levels. Wash’s debut was defined by the market as the most hawkish central bank speech in recent years: inflation hasn’t materially eased, the 2% target remains unchanged, further rate hikes are not ruled out, and forward guidance will no longer be considered—only data will matter.
Once the news broke, US Treasury yields surged, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets across the board fell sharply, with the crypto market no exception. Nearly 100,000 liquidations occurred within 24 hours, totaling $474 million. Those who chased longs at high levels and maxed out leverage were basically wiped out, completely washing out market sentiment.
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Core Logic Brief
The pressure from options expiry indeed ended yesterday, with $6.4 billion in positions cleared and market makers no longer constrained. However, macro bearishness immediately took over. This decline is not just a shakeout; it’s a real pullback caused by tightening liquidity expectations.
ETF inflows continue, which is a positive sign—mid-term support remains intact, so a crash is unlikely. But when macro sentiment is suppressed, institutions won’t aggressively push against the trend. The short-term upward momentum is interrupted, entering a correction and consolidation phase, which must be acknowledged.
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Current Market Status
BTC dropped from 79,500 to around 76,800, a decline of over 3%. Major altcoins followed suit, with ETH, SOL, XRP, and Dogecoin all down more than 4%. The market’s profit-making effect has basically vanished, and everyone is watching cautiously.
The previous high-level oscillation structure has broken down, marking a phase-end for the short-term bullish trend. The early session shows weak recovery with very limited rebound strength—nothing to get excited about.
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BTC Key Levels
Resistance above: 77,800-78,200. The small rebounds in the early session were mostly capped here. Failure to hold above this range indicates weakness, and rebounds only offer opportunities to the bears.
Support below: 76,800 is last night’s low, providing temporary support. Strong support lies between 76,200-76,000. If weakness continues, this area will likely be tested again.
ETH
Fell more than BTC, showing higher volatility. Resistance at 2,440, support at 2,380, moving in tandem with BTC without much independence.
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Trading Strategy
Don’t rush to bottom-fish today. After experiencing macro bearishness plus mass liquidations, market sentiment remains fragile, characterized by "weak rebounds and strong sell-offs." Especially for MEME coins, which are most vulnerable to follow-downs and sharp dips during market weakness; high leverage is a recipe for losses.
Short-term direction has clearly turned bearish. Avoid chasing shorts or bottom-fishing. The worst of the bearish wave has passed, and what follows is a weak, oscillating recovery. No need to panic mid-term—there are no crash signals. This is just a deep washout caused by macro expectation adjustments.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP Good mindset--Morning report 🐮🐮
August 28, Jackson Hole.
Before Powell took the stage, BTC was still fluctuating above $80,000—just this week it reached $81,455,
30 minutes later, $77,000.
One speech wiped out nearly $5,000.
What exactly did Powell say to scare the market like this?
Three sentences:
First, "Inflation has been above target for too long, the Fed still has work to do."
Second, "The current financial environment is not restrictive."
Third, the 2% inflation target is "firm and unshakable."
In plain language: don’t talk to me about rate cuts, the door for rate hikes is still open.
Before the speech, the market’s bet on a September rate hike was only 35%. After the speech, that number shot up to nearly 60%.
Market reaction?
The two-year Treasury yield instantly jumped 9 basis points, the highest since July. The dollar index surged nearly 60 points. Gold plummeted over $135.
Then, it was crypto’s turn.
How did BTC fall? Three steps, textbook level:
Step one, rate hike probability soars → short-term Treasury yields jump.
The two-year Treasury yield hit 4.34%, a near one-month high. The risk-free rate is rising, increasing the opportunity cost of holding BTC.
Step two, non-yielding asset valuations come under pressure.
BTC produces no cash flow, pays no interest. When Treasury yields soar, BTC’s relative appeal instantly evaporates.
Step three, the dollar surges.
BTC is priced in dollars. When the dollar rises, the same BTC becomes more expensive for non-dollar holders.$BTC dropped from above $81K to ~$76.9K, while $ETH lost $2.5K and fell toward $2.45K. Yet ETF flows tell a different story: 🟠 BTC ETFs still saw net inflows (+497 BTC, ~$32M), with BlackRock buying aggressively. 🔵 ETH ETFs recorded net outflows (~9,825 ETH, ~$18.7M), making ETH look more vulnerable. The real trigger wasn't ETF demand—it was macro pressure. A hawkish Fed narrative boosted yields and the dollar, reducing risk appetite across markets. Then leverage did the rest. Over $369M in crThe BTCFi race is fiercely contested by many players—can Core DAO truly stand out?
⚠️Content is for industry logic discussion only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Trillions in dormant BTC assets are seeking yield channels, and BTCFi has become the core theme of this bull market. The track is crowded with contenders: Babylon, STX, Merlin, and Core DAO each follow different paths. Many community members ask: amid intense competition, does Core have a chance to break through?
First, recognize the landscape: it is difficult for a single giant to dominate the BTCFi track; it is highly likely to see stratified segmentation in the future, with different solutions serving different capital needs.
Babylon positions itself as a pure BTC re-staking tool. Its model is simple enough—using native BTC alone to rent out network security and earn yields, requiring no additional tokens. It is favored by minimalistic Bitcoin holders. However, its shortcoming is obvious: it is only an infrastructure protocol without an independent smart contract public chain, unable to support a complete ecosystem including lending, payments, and RWA, thus its potential is inherently limited.
Stacks, as a veteran Bitcoin Layer 2, has a solid institutional foundation. Staking STX to earn BTC yields forms a stable narrative. But a fatal bottleneck is its incompatibility with EVM; its unique programming language raises the developer barrier, making it difficult to absorb the massive Ethereum DeFi ecosystem overflow capital. Its token has no hard cap on total supply, leading to long-term continuous inflation, further suppressing its long-term valuation ceiling.
Merlin Chain focuses on ZK-Rollup Bitcoin Layer 2, supports EVM, and attracts a large retail flow through BRC20 and inscriptions. But its ecosystem heavily depends on speculative markets, lacks a native non-custodial BTC staking system, and most assets rely on cross-chain wrapping, making it hard to appeal to large Bitcoin institutional funds that pursue extreme security.
In contrast, Core DAO follows an independent Layer 1 public chain route, possessing a unique differentiated moat in the track. Relying on Satoshi Plus consensus, it borrows Bitcoin hash power network-wide to secure the network, while fully compatible with EVM, allowing all Ethereum DeFi applications to migrate and deploy at low cost. Unlike various wrapped BTC solutions, Core supports native Bitcoin mainnet timelock staking, with users holding their private keys, requiring no cross-chain wrapping or asset transfer, meeting the core security demands of conservative BTC whales.
With a dual staking mechanism, BTC paired with CORE participates in staking to earn higher-tier yields. The b14g network has been widely implemented, continuously driving long-term CORE lock-up demand. The long-term roadmap is clear: staking infrastructure, SatPay encrypted payments, DeFi, and RWA coordinated development, aiming to build a complete BTCFi ecosystem closed loop; token total supply approaches 2.1 billion with an inflation end point, aligning with Bitcoin’s deflationary narrative.
Behind the opportunities lie unavoidable risks. The 81-year continuous block reward release means long-term inflationary selling pressure is the biggest mid-to-long-term constraint; high-tier dual staking requires holding both BTC and CORE, posing a participation barrier for pure BTC holders. SatPay’s full public beta, ecosystem fee revenue buybacks, and other core narratives are still in the expectation phase; currently, the number of blockbuster ecosystem applications is insufficient, and TVL growth speed remains to be verified.
For Core to stand out in fierce competition, four key inflection signals matter: continuous new highs in native BTC staked on b14g; steady user growth after SatPay’s official launch; implementation of normalized fee buyback mechanisms to hedge inflation; and attracting a large influx of external DeFi and RWA projects.
In the long run, track demand naturally differentiates: capital seeking simple staking yields chooses Babylon; inscription and short-term speculative capital prefers Merlin; native Bitcoin developers choose Stacks. Core targets incremental capital that values both BTC asset security and a complete EVM smart contract ecosystem.
If subsequent major products launch as scheduled and cash flow flywheels are connected, Core is expected to firmly establish itself as the independent Layer 1 BTCFi leader and relatively stand out; if ecosystem rollouts continue to be delayed, track competition will persist long-term, making it difficult to break out with a major independent rally.
Competition in this track has never been about short-term hype; the ultimate outcome depends on who first converts grand narratives into sustained on-chain demand.
Who do you think among the many BTCFi projects is most likely to become the ultimate winner? Share your thoughts in the comments.But don't get too happy too soon!
The real killer issue isn't "whether to raise rates in September," but "what to do after raising them." Bank of America has long predicted that there could be three rate hikes in 2026. Among the 18 Fed officials, 9 already expect at least one rate hike this year, with 6 expecting two hikes. The dot plot flipped directly from "room for rate cuts this year" in March to "rate hikes."
If rates really go up in September, the market will immediately start speculating on "whether to raise rates in November" and "whether to raise rates in December." One rate hike isn't scary; what's scary is the self-reinforcing expectation of rate hikes.
Goldman Sachs was still adamant in mid-August that a September hike was "extremely unlikely," but now the market has proven them wrong. What does this mean? It means that in Waller's Fed, nothing is certain. The chairman has made it clear—the Fed's understanding of the economic mechanism is insufficient to mechanically output policy answers; the market should judge based on data.
In plain language: don't expect me to give you clear guidance, guess for yourselves.
There is also a CPI report on September 11. If inflation exceeds expectations again, the 59.7% could become 80%. If it falls short, 40.3% might become mainstream. Before the data comes out, all so-called directions are just bets.
What the crypto world fears most now isn't the rate hike itself, but uncertainty. And Waller has just maximized that uncertainty.
This September is destined to be anything but calm. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 Everyone, the fire that Warsh started is still burning.
In his debut at Jackson Hole, his stance was more hawkish than the market expected. Inflation remains above the 2% target, financial conditions have not yet reached restrictive levels, the labor market is close to full employment, and monetary policy should continue to focus on restoring price stability at this stage. He reiterated that the short-term interest rate is the main tool, advocated reducing the use of forward guidance as the norm, and did not make a clear commitment regarding September.
After the speech, the market immediately repriced, with the probability of a rate hike in September jumping from 35% to 58%, and the two-year US Treasury yield rising from 4.22% to 4.35%. US stocks closed slightly lower, while gold and BTC fell in tandem.
This time he finally provided a judgment framework, but the path remains unclear. The policy principles are clear, but whether to raise rates in September still depends on subsequent data. Going forward, inflation, employment, and financial conditions will be the basis for the market to assess the timing of rate hikes.
For BTC, the rising expectations of rate hikes mean short-term pressure. But having a clear policy framework itself is not a bad thing; the worst is never being able to guess. BTC may fluctuate around 80,000 in the short term to digest, waiting for September data to choose the direction. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH The ETF flow data suggests something more interesting than a simple risk-off move. 🔴 $BTC: -$168.41M 🔴 $ETH: -$24.26M But while the majors saw outflows, capital quietly rotated elsewhere: 🟢 $XRP: +$26.20M 🟢 $SOL: +$18.08M 🟢 $HYPE: +$4.48M Total flows across the group still finished negative at -$143.91M, but the distribution matters more than the headline. This doesn't look like investors abandoning crypto. It looks like capital searching for higher-beta opportunities after weeks of strong #BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold correlation strengthens
Recently, I've been closely watching BTC's status at high levels. After breaking through 80,000, the market hasn't surged forward relentlessly; instead, it has fallen into repeated tugging, which many friends have probably felt.
On one hand, the US spot BTC ETF continues to see net inflows, with solid buying support holding up the market; but on the other hand, pressure is also significant, with profit-taking, options hedging, and increasing high-leverage shorts. On-chain data is even more interesting, showing both long position additions and short setups simultaneously, with neither side fully dominating.
One change I find particularly noteworthy is from Grayscale's data: the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has surged above 50%, while the correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to only 33%.
Simply put, BTC used to follow tech stock sentiment more, but now its linkage with gold is growing stronger. The market is debating whether it is gradually shifting from a risky growth asset to a "digital gold" hedge against currency devaluation.
However, I hesitate to draw a definitive conclusion. If this is just a temporary correlation, once macro interest rates rise and market leverage contracts, macro forces will still dominate the price again.
The current position is quite delicate; it's not just about whether BTC can hold the 80,000 level, but also whether the underlying capital logic will truly complete this shift.
What do you think about this transition? Do you believe BTC in this cycle is genuinely aligning with gold logic, or is it a short-term phenomenon? DTCC listing, does the group rally first as a courtesy?
21Shares Polkadot (DOT) Staking ETF has been listed at DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation in the US). Listing is a key procedural step before the ETF officially starts trading, usually indicating a step closer to formal trading—but it does not mean final SEC approval has been granted.
This is another signal of staking yield ETFs penetrating the regulated market following spot BTC and ETH ETFs. If ultimately approved, institutional investors can directly access DOT staking yields through regulated channels, which is a substantial positive for Polkadot ecosystem capital inflows and staking narratives. The short-term outlook is somewhat bullish.
But don’t rush to extrapolate linearly. Approval still carries uncertainty; DTCC listing raises market expectations, not certainty. DOT’s prior trend was weak, and such news can act as a short-term catalyst when sentiment is low, but sustainability depends on subsequent progress.
Observation points: subsequent SEC approval progress, changes in DOT on-chain staking volume. If progress is smooth, incremental funds from staking ETFs are worth anticipating; if blocked or delayed, the current rebound’s sustainability is limited.
Core asset DOT, event direction is somewhat bullish, driven by expectations rather than realized outcomes.
Source: BlockBeats
#DOT #Crypto100W BTC's correlation with gold has surged to 50%. After being oversold, I think it's possible to accumulate long positions in batches.
BTC dropped to 77,557, with RSI6 falling to 26.9, indicating severe overselling. Gold is even worse, dropping to 4,468, with RSI6 at only 17.47, extremely oversold. Both declined simultaneously due to the same reason—after Wash's speech, the US dollar strengthened, causing both risk assets and safe-haven assets to be sold off together.
But one data point is worth noting: the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%, while its correlation with Nasdaq has dropped to 33%. The market is redefining BTC—from a "tech stock-like risk asset" to a "hedge against currency depreciation."
My judgment: this shift in correlation means BTC is gaining new narrative support, not just driven by liquidity.
Gold below 4,500 and BTC below 77,000 are both mid-term value zones. Recovery after overselling can happen anytime, but the probability of a V-shaped rebound is low; it will take time to bottom out.
My strategy: place long orders in batches below 77,000, adding one every 500 dollars drop, with a stop loss below 75,000. Do not chase shorts, do not panic, wait for stabilization signals.
$BTC $XAU
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 Why has the drop stopped?
First, $2 billion in cash is providing support. Data shows that during the period when the probability of a rate hike rose from 36% to 44%, Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days. Institutions are hedging macroeconomic headwinds with real money. This is not retail FOMO; it's allocation from giants like BlackRock and Fidelity.
Second, the market is pricing in "rate hikes but not many." CME data shows the probability of a cumulative 50 basis points hike by October is only 17.2%. In other words, even if there is a hike in September, the market does not expect the Fed to start an aggressive rate hike cycle. A symbolic 25 basis points move is a completely different concept from the consecutive 75 basis points strikes in 2022.
Third, Hashdex's Chief Investment Officer said a blunt truth — Bitcoin does not directly respond to the September rate decision but follows global liquidity and the long-end yield curve. Rate hike expectations push up short-term yields, but as long as the long end doesn't surge wildly, Bitcoin's valuation anchor remains.
$ETH $SOL #$BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK The latest pullback looks more like a macro repricing than a crypto-specific break. BTC at $77,617 is down 3.15% over 24 hours, while ETH and SOL are falling by similar amounts, which points to broad risk reduction rather than a sharp loss of conviction in one asset.
Inflation risk is the key pressure point. If BTC continues trading with risk assets while gold absorbs defensive flows, the BTC-gold correlation debate matters less than liquidity conditions. My stance is cautious near term: stabilization needs broader risk appetite, not just crypto headlines.
Not advice, just analysis.🌍 One-sentence core summary: This week, the global market followed a complete divergence script: BTC failed all four attempts to break above 80K, US stock AI hardware funds continued to flee, while the A-share market defied the trend to close higher on the weekly chart despite semiconductor drag. Three markets, three destinies; "resonance" did not come, and "each going their own way" became the main theme. 🪙 Crypto｜Four false breakouts above 80K, 78K becomes the new test BTC started this week around 77,000, stood above 81K three times on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, reaching a high of 81,478, but was pushed back each time. After falling below 78K on Friday, the contract long-short ratio surged to 1.18 — price dropped, but retail investors kept adding longs. All long positions that bought above 80K are now underwater. Retail investors kept adding positions during the drop; their last bullets were fired in the 78K-80K range — once this range is effectively broken, those holding positions will trigger a stop-loss wave. Next week, the key focus is not whether BTC can rise, but whether 78K can hold. If it holds, this is a golden pit; if not, it becomes a "longs' graveyard." SOL rose from 97 to 110 this week, gaining about 10% weekly, repeatedly blocked near 110 — coinciding with BTC's resistance at 81K. SOL's rally is supported by its own deflation proposal vote and continuous ETF inflows but also depends on US stock risk appetite. Nvidia retreated for two days, and SOL immediately fell from 110 to 104. The altcoin season index is only 43 (threshold 75); without US stock cooperation, an independent altcoin season currently does not exist. SOL holds 1 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
I have carefully considered the news about Schwab planning to add SOL, AVAX, and LINK, and I feel its significance goes far beyond short-term price fluctuations.
Schwab officially announced that in the coming months, direct trading of SOL, AVAX, and LINK will be launched in SchwabCrypto accounts. This platform began phased openings as early as May this year, initially supporting only BTC and ETH. The addition of these new assets marks a crucial step forward.
SOL and AVAX are in the smart contract public chain sector, while LINK belongs to oracle infrastructure, no longer limited to the two veteran crypto assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is more than just an expansion of trading varieties; it represents traditional wealth management institutions incorporating more types of digital assets into regular asset allocation systems.
Previously, traditional brokers viewed crypto basically as BTC+ETH, categorizing other public chains and infrastructure tokens as niche, high-risk assets. But Schwab’s proactive selection of these three tokens for listing shows a change in institutional screening logic, starting to pick assets with clear narratives and well-defined ecological positioning, suitable for ordinary investors’ accounts.
Of course, we should not be blindly optimistic now. I will continue to track two points: first, whether Schwab’s vast traditional wealth management clients will truly generate sustained demand for allocating such assets; second, whether other U.S. brokers and asset management institutions will follow suit and continue to expand the list of tradable digital assets.$LIGHT made a mistake
Did not trust the eyes, respected objective facts
Instead believed the mind, supervisor intervened, imagined
Here it is very obvious that a false breakout structure occurredFirst, my view: I remain optimistic about Bitcoin in the medium to long term, but the short term is still not very optimistic. Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh sent a hawkish signal at Jackson Hole, emphasizing that if inflation fails to return to the 2% target for a long time, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The market immediately reacted: 📉 September rate hike expectations clearly heated up 📉 US stocks and BTC simultaneously came under pressure 📉 BTC once fell from above $80K to around $77K This indicates one thing: In the short term, BTC depends on sentiment; in the medium term, on liquidity; and in the long term, on supply and narrative. But the market is not only bearish now. 🔥 US spot BTC ETFs have recently seen funds flowing back, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $3 billion in August, showing institutional demand still exists. Moreover, the supply-side logic of Bitcoin has not disappeared. After halving, new BTC production decreases, and long-term new supply continues to decline. But note: mining cost is not BTC's "fixed floor price," and rising costs do not necessarily mean the price will rise. What really deserves attention is: reduced supply + continuous ETF accumulation + global liquidity improvement = potential fuel for BTC's next rally. Therefore, I will not turn bearish on the entire cycle just because of a single interest rate expectation change. In the short term, if $77K does not hold, further pullbacks are not surprising; if it climbs back above $80K, there is a chance to challenge the resistance near $83K again. As for further out, I still believe $120K-$15 The reason why the bull market in the crypto world follows a four-year cycle and always occurs after Bitcoin halving is fundamentally because Bitcoin's surge brings in newcomers and traffic.
Regardless of whether other coins have value, ultimately, their price increases are because they are riding on Bitcoin's rocket. Without this leading big brother continuously attracting resources from outside the circle and withstanding various attacks, other coins have no chance.
Theoretically, no one in the crypto world needs to attack Bitcoin; after all, Bitcoin being strong means you can be strong too. And hoarders of coins don't need to attack other coins either, because when others get rich, they will eventually hoard Bitcoin. $CORE Pie in the Sky — Waiting
CORE at $0.025, no volume, no direction.
Core DAO's pitch: "Revenue Era" 2026 — real fees from BTC staking, SatPay, AMP → buyback CORE. Rev+ shares Gas fees with devs. Logic closed.
But pie needs eaters. App fees: ~$59K/month. On-chain Gas: a few hundred bucks. SatPay still in beta. $150M BTC from Maple settlement — can it be safely returned? Sword overhead.
Narrative in whitepaper, price hasn't moved. Downside $0.018, upside $0.035–$0.04.
#DailyOrbit Whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September is now a 50-50 situation.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has surged to 59.7%, while the chance of holding steady has dropped to 40.3%. Before Waller's Jackson Hole speech, this figure was less than 35%. In just 48 hours, market expectations have completely reversed.
But what's really interesting is the crypto community's reaction to this news.
After Waller's speech, Bitcoin was hammered from above $81,000 down to $77,000. Over $200 million in long leverage was liquidated within a single hour. Sounds brutal? But if you experienced the days in 2022 when a single Fed speech caused Bitcoin to drop 15%, you know this decline—less than 5%—is relatively mild.
This resilience itself is a signal. $ETH $SOL $BTC #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK This foreigner on $CORE Twitter sees it very clearly: the real death of the core coin is a qualitative change; its original intention has already changed and seriously deviated from the narrative. Starting from the leading ecosystem OEX, which scammed 360,000 people and ran away, nodes withdrew, exchanges delisted it, step by step heading towards death. The next step, spiral liquidation, is about to begin Currently, the biggest support for the Bitcoin market still comes from the capital side. Recently, the US spot BTC ETF has maintained net inflows, with cumulative assets exceeding $2.5 billion. BlackRock's IBIT attracted about $180 million in funds in a single day, and institutional buying has not significantly faded. Meanwhile, the Ethereum spot ETF has also shown strong funding, indicating that not only BTC is attracting attention, but ETH is also receiving continued institutional allocation. From a medium-term perspective, the overall trend in the crypto market remains bullish. However, short-term risks are clearly increasing. Tonight, during the US stock session, there will be an important speech related to Jackson Hole, with the market focusing on Federal Reserve policy signals; Meanwhile, US inflation data remains relatively high, the 10-year US Treasury yield has strengthened again, and international oil prices have recently rebounded by about 1.7%. All these factors combined mean that tonight may be one of the most important macro volatility windows in the near term. 📌 Trading Approach: Medium-term trend positions can continue to follow the trend and avoid easily changing direction due to short-term fluctuations. However, before major events are announced, the risk of using high leverage to bet on one-sided moves increases significantly, especially to guard against aggressive losses such as "news rising first then falling" or "falling first then pulling back." Next, focus on two signals: 1️⃣ Whether BTC can stabilize above the $81,000–$83,000 range; 2️⃣ Whether U.S. BTC ETF funds can continue to maintain continuous net inflows. If funds persist#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens
BTC is stuck in a high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the linkage to gold continuing to strengthen
After Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark in one go, the market did not follow through with a new round of upward momentum. Instead, it started to oscillate and hover in a high-level range, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate, unable to form a unified offensive direction for the time being.
From the capital flow perspective, the US spot BTC-ETF still maintains a net inflow status, with continuous buying providing solid bottom support for the coin price. However, risks are also accumulating simultaneously, with profit-taking selling pressure, options hedging positions, and high-leverage short positions all increasing. On-chain data also shows undercurrents, with large long positions increasing and short positions also rising, intensifying market competition.
Cross-asset data reveals a highly significant change.
According to Grayscale monitoring data, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen from nearly zero at the beginning of the year to over 50%; meanwhile, its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen back to 33%.
This signal is highly significant. For a long time, Bitcoin was regarded as a high-risk tech growth asset, with its trend closely following the US tech stock sector. Now it is gradually detaching from the rhythm of US stocks and turning towards gold. The market is beginning to intensely discuss whether Bitcoin’s underlying narrative is completing a shift: from tech stock-like risk speculation to a "digital gold" hedge against currency depreciation.DeFi IS LEARNING AN IMPORTANT LESSON: LIQUIDATION ISN'T THE REAL RISK CONCENTRATION IS The recent stress around Aave is a good reminder that DeFi doesn't need a market crash to experience serious liquidation pressure. ETH only moved within a relatively narrow range, yet liquidation activity accelerated sharply as leveraged positions built around long-tail collateral began reaching their thresholds. That's the part many traders underestimate. The danger isn't simply leverage. It's leverage becomiDeFi IS LEARNING AN IMPORTANT LESSON: LIQUIDATION ISN'T THE REAL RISK CONCENTRATION IS The recent stress around Aave is a good reminder that DeFi doesn't need a market crash to experience serious liquidation pressure. ETH only moved within a relatively narrow range, yet liquidation activity accelerated sharply as leveraged positions built around long-tail collateral began reaching their thresholds. That's the part many traders underestimate. The danger isn't simply leverage. It's leverage becomiCurrently, the biggest support for the Bitcoin market still comes from the capital side. Recently, the US spot BTC ETF has maintained net inflows, with cumulative assets exceeding $2.5 billion. BlackRock's IBIT attracted about $180 million in funds in a single day, and institutional buying has not significantly faded. Meanwhile, the Ethereum spot ETF has also shown strong funding, indicating that not only BTC is attracting attention, but ETH is also receiving continued institutional allocation. From a medium-term perspective, the overall trend in the crypto market remains bullish. However, short-term risks are clearly increasing. Tonight, during the US stock session, there will be an important speech related to Jackson Hole, with the market focusing on Federal Reserve policy signals; Meanwhile, US inflation data remains relatively high, the 10-year US Treasury yield has strengthened again, and international oil prices have recently rebounded by about 1.7%. All these factors combined mean that tonight may be one of the most important macro volatility windows in the near term. 📌 Trading Approach: Medium-term trend positions can continue to follow the trend and avoid easily changing direction due to short-term fluctuations. However, before major events are announced, the risk of using high leverage to bet on one-sided moves increases significantly, especially to guard against aggressive losses such as "news rising first then falling" or "falling first then pulling back." Next, focus on two signals: 1️⃣ Whether BTC can stabilize above the $81,000–$83,000 range; 2️⃣ Whether U.S. BTC ETF funds can continue to maintain continuous net inflows. If funds persist$GOOGL (Alphabet) — Closed at $346.59, up +1.74% for the day
$GOOGL rose 1.74% today, with an intraday high of $349.14 and a low of $340.27, showing a performance clearly stronger than most semiconductor stocks.
The market may be starting to differentiate between the logics of "selling AI infrastructure" and "using AI to improve existing businesses."
$GOOGL already owns search, advertising, YouTube, and cloud computing. If AI can improve user efficiency without damaging ad revenue, the investment could directly protect the original profit sources.
The real risk remains whether the search advertising model will be affected after AI answers reduce webpage clicks.
Around $340 is support, and around $349 is resistance. The key going forward is whether it can break through resistance, rather than simply looking at how much it outperformed today.
I am Yuvi. The issue for $GOOGL is not whether it has AI, but whether AI can upgrade without damaging search profits."BTC's recent pullback looks more like a 'cooling off' after a 23% surge"
After BTC rapidly rose from previous lows, it has encountered macro-level pressure for the first time in the short term.
From the 15-minute chart, BTC is currently around $77,660. After failing to break above $80,000, it quickly pulled back, hitting a low of $76,847, then entered a sideways consolidation around $77,300–$77,800.
What I think is most noteworthy now is not how much BTC has dropped, but that the logic behind the rise and short-term trading logic are diverging.
In the past week, BTC recorded a strong rise of about 23%, largely driven by ETF funds flowing back in. Recently, US spot BTC ETFs have seen continuous large-scale inflows, totaling billions of dollars over several trading days. This means mid-term capital has not completely reversed due to a single pullback.
But the short-term environment has changed.
In his speech at Jackson Hole, Powell reemphasized inflation risks, prompting the market to increase bets on further Fed rate hikes. US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously, and BTC experienced a noticeable pullback.
Additionally, about $6.4 billion in BTC options expired, creating a short-term need for funds to adjust positions.
So, I currently prefer to interpret this as:
The first macro pressure test after a strong rally, rather than simply defining it as the start of a new downtrend.
Back to the chart.
On the 15-minute level, the price has returned to entangle around MA5, MA10, and MA20, Bollinger Bands have clearly narrowed, and volume has dropped sharply. This indicates the first round of panic selling near $76,847 has been released, but bulls have not immediately launched a second attack.
Next, I focus on two levels:
Around $77,300 is the first short-term defense line.
If this holds, BTC still has a chance to retest $77,850–$78,000. To truly regain strength, it needs to break above $79,000 again and ultimately reclaim $80,000.
Conversely, if $77,300 breaks, the market will likely retest the previous low near $76,850. If that low is also effectively broken, this correction will shift from "high-level profit-taking digestion" to a deeper retracement.
So I won’t rush to guess the next candle.
After a rapid rise of over 20% in a week, what BTC really needs to prove is not whether it can rise further, but whether the market is willing to continue absorbing at around $77,000 amid a hawkish Fed, dollar rebound, and profit-taking.
If selling pressure can be digested here and ETF funds do not reverse persistently, this pullback might become the most important test to judge the quality of this rally.
Rallies rely on sentiment, but trends ultimately depend on capital support.
Do you think $76,847 is the low of this pullback, or does BTC need a deeper shakeout before challenging $80,000 again? $BTC BlackRock is making real cash votes, BTC is becoming a macro hedge asset
iShares ETF has had net inflows for 8 consecutive days, with BTC+ETH combined inflows exceeding $3.16 billion, and on August 27th, both assets saw single-day inflows exceeding $200 million.
This is no longer a retail market; the institutional perspective logic has changed: U.S. Treasury debt has surpassed 40 trillion.
BTC is no longer only viewed through industry or regulatory lenses; it is being treated as a macro asset with non-sovereign credit.
With debt expansion and purchasing power depreciation, capital is seeking safe havens; besides gold, BTC is also included as an option.
Don’t just look at the candlesticks; focus on: U.S. debt, dollar credit, and institutional allocation ratios.
Once BTC truly becomes a tool for hedging depreciation, the current inflows may just be the beginning.
Is BlackRock buying BTC, or is it a chip to hedge dollar credit risk?
#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
$SOL $ETH $BTC RISK/REWARD — UPSIDE ISN’T ALWAYS WORTH THE TRADE-OFF
A 13% daily gain on an altcoin looks attractive. But if it can lose 20–30% after a single BTC shakeout, that upside may not be worth the risk.
$BTC is around $77.6K, $ETH $2.44K, and $SOL $103.8.
Meanwhile,
$DOS +13.47%
$SNT +6.27%
$GRVT +6.08%
$MINA +4.76%
$MOVE +3.38%
The signal to watch isn’t who’s greenest — it’s who can hold their gains while BTC remains weak.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
#DailyOrbit #沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
The main event is tonight: Wash's Jackson Hole speech, the whole market is holding its breath for signals.
Honestly, the market has been a bit tangled these past few days, largely because everyone is waiting for tonight's speech.
At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, the new Fed Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers Symposium.
Let's first review the current situation. The latest core PCE inflation still hasn't dropped to the 2% target line, while initial jobless claims have fallen, and employment remains relatively strong. On one side, there is persistent inflation stickiness; on the other, resilient employment. Moreover, several Fed officials have already spoken out before the meeting, warning about inflation risks. Internal disagreements about whether to raise rates are now out in the open.
I see many people still debating whether he will definitively say yes or no to a rate hike in September tonight. But I think this might not be the core of this speech. What the market really wants is a clear set of criteria: at what level of inflation, employment status, and changes in the financial environment will the Fed take action to adjust policy? Also, on long-term interest rates, the bottom lines for both the Fed and the Treasury are a major point of interest.
What is the worst-case scenario? A vague speech that doesn't provide a clear policy framework, with forward guidance continuing to weaken. If that happens, the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, gold, and BTC will likely experience a sharp shock in expectations.#沃什强调通胀风险，9月加息预期升温
After watching the speech by Walsh at Jackson Hole, honestly, it was a bit unexpected for me.
I originally had a somewhat dovish expectation, but he directly put the inflation risk on the table and emphasized it repeatedly. Inflation is still not at the 2% target, financial conditions are not tight enough, and the job market remains hot, so the focus of monetary policy still needs to be on suppressing inflation. He didn’t make a definitive statement or directly decide what to do in September, but the market has already reacted ahead of time.
The probability of a rate hike in September jumped directly from 35% to nearly 58%, US Treasury yields pulled up, gold and BTC both went down, and the US stock market is also moving in a very conflicted way.
I think this is very key: he mentioned reducing forward guidance, meaning they won’t give the market too many clear signals in advance, and every piece of data going forward will become critical in influencing the market. Upcoming inflation and employment data cannot be ignored, the September meeting is uncertain, and there are still many variables.
Friends holding positions really can’t be careless now; market sentiment is very sensitive, and even slight data changes can easily cause big fluctuations. Is everyone leaning bullish or more cautious now? Feel free to share.