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On August 20, the Fear and Greed Index jumped from 46 to 62, re-entering the greed zone. BTC briefly broke above 70,000, hitting a new high since early June. But don't rush to call a bull market. This rally is likely driven by a major driver. Bears are too crowded. After BTC broke through key resistance, short stop-losses turned into buys, rising to short closing positions, buying increases, continuing to rise, and bears forcing more buyers to buy back. This is a typical short squeeze. Of course, the weakening dollar, falling US Treasury yields, and improved regulatory expectations also supported BTC, but now it seems more like short squeezing is accelerating Funds determine whether you can go far. Next, it depends on three things: whether ETF funds are keeping up, prices rising, and funds keep flowing in—that's healthier. Can 70,000 hold steady? Breaking above 70,000 isn't hard. Whether anyone will buy on pullbacks is key. US dollar and US Treasury yields. The dollar remains weak, yields keep falling, which is more favorable to BTC. No need to rush to shout that the bull market is back. 62 is sentiment renewing greed. 70,000 is the real test stage. The next pullback will be the real test for this round of rally. Don't chase short-squeezed markets; wait for pullbacks to confirm #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3, officials remain divided over rate hikes, #BTC突破69000美元 how far can this rally go? #财报观察员: Xiaomi Q2 Financial Report Released—Is It Cars Saving the Pack or Smartphones Holding Us Back? $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC 在 6.4 万附近，$ETH 在 1900 徘徊——但真正让人睡不着的，不是价格，是那个随时可能被点燃的宏观引信。 你有没有一种感觉，市场最近特别安静，安静到像暴风雨前的玻璃海？ 今天真正值得盯的，不是某个币种突然拉升，而是三件看起来很远、却能决定短线方向的大事：霍尔木兹海峡的局势变化、美债收益率的脸色，以及今天白宫那场加密峰会到底能不能聊出点实质内容。 先说霍尔木兹海峡。这不是普通的"地缘风险"四个字，它直接卡着全球原油运输的脖子。一旦局势升级，油价一冲，通胀预期跟着抬头，那风险资产就容易被压得喘不过气。反之，如果事态缓和，油价回落，那对 BTC、ETH 来说就是一次松绑。 再看美债收益率。这个指标其实比大多数链上数据都诚实，它反映的是资金真实的避险情绪。如果收益率继续走低，说明市场在押注经济降温，那资金反而可能从美元和美债流出，去寻找更高弹性的资产——比如加密。但如果收益率是因为通胀预期而飙升，那所有风险资产都会被无差别抛售，BTC 也躲不掉。 最后是白宫的加密峰会。说实话，市场对"开会"这件事已经有点叙事疲劳了，所以即便会上释放一些偏暖的信号，也别指望立刻引爆行情。真正$SKHY SK Hynix raises the lower limit of free cash flow returns and initiates a large-scale cancellation-style buyback, essentially attempting to restructure the valuation logic of the storage industry. Compared to verbally narrating the AI industry story, solid capital returns can better validate the company's current profitability quality and also demonstrate management's optimistic judgment on medium- to long-term profitability, building a safety cushion for the volatile stock price, Guangming Online.
As an industry leader, SK Hynix's actions carry benchmark significance. The market generally expects Samsung to soon follow with a corresponding shareholder return plan; Micron and Kioxia have also implemented related shareholder return actions. Once the global storage giants reach a consensus on "increasing cash returns and restraining blind capacity expansion," it will improve the industry's past boom-and-bust cycle fate and bring valuation support strength to the entire storage sector. This looks broader than a BTC breakout. With BTC above $69,000 while ETH gains 18.23% and SOL 10.53% over 24 hours, the stronger signal is expanding risk appetite, especially through ETH’s clear outperformance.
My bias is constructive, but not euphoric. Treasury buyback discussion and a divided FOMC keep liquidity expectations in focus, so the durability of this move depends on breadth holding after the initial repricing, not on BTC clearing one #FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #XiaomiQ2Earnings Explain the meaning of ↓ Sesame Gate: At the same time as we paid 100000 USDT and 800,000 ALD to the "scammer's" wallet according to the contract, Gate's alpha automatically captured the ALD tokens, but it cannot be disclosed who connected to the coin listing process. Finally, the scammer's wallet transferred the tokens into Gate alpha for an airdrop. Is that correct?
The hash is here, the answer is here
When a project has paid, listed the coin, and then is told "the person communicating with you is not our staff, and the project is listed on Gate" — this is already a credibility issue for Gate.Yesterday, Trump formed a crypto executive bureau at the White House, with bosses from Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken all present, along with the SEC chairman. During the meeting, someone asked if the government would buy a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin. Trump's exact words were: "We've discussed it, but I listen to Paul (SEC Chairman Atkins) and the others; they decide."
No plans, no timeline, no amount—classic Trump-style talk. But the market didn't care; $BTC surged 7% straight back to 69,000, and $ETH rose over 17%, firmly holding above 2200.
And this rally isn't all because of him. On the same day, the Treasury announced a doubling of long-term bond buybacks. Once liquidity expectations loosened, risk assets all rose; Trump's words at most added fuel to the fire.
However, the signal is quite clear. The strategic Bitcoin reserve was signed last March, the Clarity Act has a procedural vote in the Senate on September 15, and the SEC just released new financing exemption rules the day before. The president is calling to "end the war on crypto" while hinting at buying coins—regulatory, legislative, and executive lines are all paving the way.
What's even more interesting is that the mining company where his son serves as chief strategy officer held 8,000 coins as of the end of June and added nearly a thousand more in Q2. The president hints at buying coins at the White House, and the family business is the first to benefit—no need to say which side he's sitting on.
To put it plainly, there's a gap of ten Congresses between "discussed" and "actually buying." But in this market, expectations are the trend. Waiting until the money arrives to jump in? There won't be any soup left.Bitcoin (BTC) core drivers for the rise: The first layer is macro catalysts. The U.S. Treasury has expanded the scale of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases, causing long-term Treasury yields to quickly decline and the dollar to weaken. Market liquidity expectations have improved, leading to an overall valuation recovery in risk assets. The second layer is institutional capital support. BTC spot ETFs have seen large net inflows for several consecutive days, with leading products like BlackRock continuously accumulating, providing medium- to long-term buying support for the market. The third layer is sentiment catalyzed by news. The White House's closed-door crypto meeting signaled a marginal easing of regulation, and the market began trading on the narrative of a "U.S. crypto strategic reserve," quickly reversing market sentiment. Finally, there is short squeeze pressure on the market. A large number of short positions had accumulated at previous highs, and during the rally, continuous triggering of short position liquidations further propelled the short-term upward trend.
Ethereum (ETH) core drivers for the rise: The macro environment aligns with BTC, but this round's gains far exceed BTC's, mainly due to on-exchange capital rotation. After the market stabilized, short-term speculative funds and smart money concentrated inflows into ETH contracts, with contract trading volume briefly surpassing BTC, representing an elastic market driven by switching existing funds. ETH-ETF inflows lag far behind the price increase, and institutional attitudes remain divided; this rally is not driven by large-scale institutional entry. Additionally, the price broke through the key long-term resistance level of $2,000, attracting a large amount of trend-following capital; long-term staking and locking on-chain continue, with circulating supply already limited, making price volatility more easily amplified.
Overall summary: BTC is driven by a combination of macro factors, institutional capital, and narrative resonance, making its upward logic more solid; ETH mainlyThe SEC has proposed a regulatory draft for crypto assets, with the CLARITY bill scheduled for review in September, which sounds like good news
But I think the industry is really entering an "exam week"
In the past, the most comfortable place for crypto projects was that many things could be done first in a gray area and then addressed later. Now the SEC, CFTC, and Congress are all trying to clearly define classification, custody, disclosure, trading, stablecoins, and tokenized securities one by one. Clarity is certainly a good thing, but clarity also means cost
The real beneficiaries may not be the loudest projects
But the platforms that can withstand compliance, audits, information disclosure, client asset segregation, and market monitoring. Many projects that survive on vague narratives will actually be exposed once they are required to clearly state their rights and obligations
Regulation is not simply loosening restrictions
It’s more like moving the industry from a night market into a shopping mall
More foot traffic, but rent is also more expensive
#SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案，CLARITY法案9月审议 Có một câu hỏi đáng chú ý hơn việc PUMP đã tăng bao nhiêu phần trăm: Điều gì đang thực sự đứng phía sau dòng tiền vào PUMP? Nếu chỉ nhìn PUMP như một memecoin, chúng ta có thể bỏ lỡ câu chuyện quan trọng nhất. PUMP đang được thị trường định giá ngày càng giống một token đại diện cho hoạt động kinh tế của cả hệ sinh thái Pump.fun. Đây là điểm khiến PUMP khác biệt. 1. Pump.fun không chỉ là nơi tạo memecoin Trong chu kỳ trước, Pump.fun chủ yếu được biết đến như một nền tảng giúp người dùng tạo và gA big player with a profit of one hundred million is shorting, and this matter itself is worth pondering.
His operational logic is statistically valid—an abrupt 5%-10% rise without news is an overreaction of sentiment, with a high probability of regression.
A 60% win rate combined with a 2.5:1 risk-reward ratio is a positive expected value strategy in the long run.
But the problem is—this time it might not be "without news."
$BTC has broken through 69,000 USD, and the weekly chart is challenging the downtrend line.
The U.S. Treasury is expanding long-term bond repurchases, 30-year U.S. bonds are retreating from highs, and macro liquidity expectations are marginally improving.
The Fed's rate hike divergence is increasing, indicating the policy turning point may be closer than expected.
The big player can short because they have a one hundred million profit as a safety cushion.
If you short, what is your safety cushion? Is it the margin in your account?
I’m not against shorting, but I suggest you ask yourself three questions first:
① Where is your stop loss set?
② If the weekly candle closes above 70,000, can you hold on?
③ What is your position size, and where is your liquidation price?
You can copy the strategy, but you cannot copy the risk management.
Think these questions through clearly before taking action—it’s never too late.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Now everywhere you hear voices saying "already bottomed out long ago" and "bull market rebound," while the knowledgeable ones mock me for going against the trend and trying to top-pick.
But this is not really about whether it's a top or not; it's about the entire macro logic.
As mentioned before, every time the Federal Reserve changes its chair, global capital reallocates, which everyone should still remember.
Now the battle for liquidity between traditional finance and the tech sector is intensifying. Whether it's U.S. economic data or tech stock performance, theoretically global capital should be flowing into U.S. Treasuries, but what happened? It didn't.
Once U.S. Treasuries are sold off, an underlying liquidity crisis immediately follows—could this not be a disguised way to pressure Powell to make a statement?
If Powell chooses to let it slide at this time, to some extent, it means leaning toward a hawkish stance. Note, I said leaning, not necessarily raising rates (you can compare this with my previous two market forecast views).
So now you can actually operate along with this wave of bond market liquidity crisis, especially since balance sheet reduction hasn't stopped yet.
When things really go wrong, the one who acts is Brainard, not Powell, nor the Fed itself. Looking back at the Silicon Valley Bank incident, it was the Fed that stepped in with real money to rescue.
Based on this judgment, I opened a short position, not heavily, and added a little around 2300 this morning.
Also, the global central bank meeting on the 28th conveniently provides a window.
The market is likely to have divergent interpretations about the Fed's independence, so it won't be a one-sided rally.
After all, Brainard and Powell are like the red and white buttons in Trump's hands; Powell just needs to maintain the appearance of "independence." Still don't believe the BTC bear market has completely ended.
This rebound of over 20% from the low is strong, but looking at historical bear markets, it's actually not uncommon. In 2018 and 2022, there were significant rebounds, even temporarily reclaiming key moving averages, but eventually the price continued downward.
What’s really worth watching now is that BTC has returned near the bear market resistance zone.
Unless a more convincing signal appears:
Break through the resistance zone → pull back and hold → show sustained follow-through
Before this structure emerges, I will still keep the possibility of one last drop before the end of the year.
A few reasons:
By 2026, some extreme signals commonly seen in past typical bear markets have not appeared, such as MVRV Z-Score dropping below 0 or price falling below Realized Price.
A rebound of around 20% can fully happen in the latter half of a bear market; in fact, in mid-2018 there was even a rebound close to 50%.
$BTC $ETH
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $OKB really pulled a bit this round. As a long-time OKX user, I do feel a bit embarrassed, but trading isn’t about feelings, you have to accept it.
$BTC rose about 10%, ETH directly 20%, OKB went from 99 to 104.5, just over a 5% increase, which really feels like it didn’t eat. The reason is simple: this wave is a short squeeze. There were a lot of short positions stacked on BTC and ETH; when the price pulled up, shorts were liquidated one after another, buying themselves up, so the increase was naturally fierce. OKB doesn’t have that many shorts, so it can’t benefit from the short squeeze, and funds all ran to chase BTC and ETH, leaving the platform token to just circle in the corner.
Also, OKB already ran from 97 to 102 a few days ago, so it had an early move. Now at 104.5, it hasn’t actually fallen, it’s just rising slowly—not weak, just not strong.
Key levels:
Support: 101-102, if it holds on a pullback, you can keep holding; if it breaks below 100, this rebound is basically over.
Resistance: 104.5-105.5, only if it breaks above with volume can it catch up with the broader market.
I’m personally holding my base position but will watch the OKB/BTC exchange rate. If it keeps underperforming, it means funds don’t recognize the platform token at all, then I’ll reduce some and switch to stronger coins, keeping just a faith position. The market doesn’t care about sentiment; no matter how good OKX is, it doesn’t mean $OKB must rise in the short term.
One last thing: don’t force reasons just because you hold OKB. Underperforming is underperforming; accept it and adjust rather than stubbornly holding on.Analysis of the Impact of Midterm Elections on the Crypto Market
The U.S. midterm elections in November are essentially a battle for congressional seats and do not directly replace the president, but they determine Trump's ability to advance policies over the next two years, making it the most important political variable for the upcoming crypto market. Currently, the Republican Party holds a slim majority in both the House and Senate. If control of Congress is lost in the midterms, Trump's key crypto-related proposals, such as the "CLARITY Act" crypto regulation bill and Bitcoin national reserve proposals, will be directly stalled in the Senate. In the short term, positive narratives for crypto will quickly cool down, and the market is likely to experience a sentiment correction.
To win crypto industry votes, Trump will proactively release more crypto-friendly statements in the two to three months before the election to attract crypto voters. During this period, positive news will frequently appear, which can temporarily boost the market. The recent White House closed-door crypto meeting is a typical example. The crypto industry has already invested nearly $190 million in lobbying for the midterm elections this year. Industry capital will actively bet on friendly lawmakers, causing more news disturbances before the election and increasing market volatility.
If the Republican Party maintains the majority in both chambers, the probability of crypto-friendly legislation passing will significantly increase, providing mid- to long-term valuation uplift logic for BTC and ETH. If the Republicans lose control, short-term policy expectations will quickly collapse, and the market will need to reprice. However, it should be clear that elections only change the pace of policy implementation and cannot directly determine the long-term trend of coin prices. ETF capital flows and U.S. Treasury liquidity remain the core underlying drivers of the market.
This article is for market review only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH Regarding last night's surge, there is a lot of interpretive information today, making it quite confusing. No need to overanalyze; to summarize:
① Trump, this super KOL, knew that the U.S. was about to announce a major fiscal decision (U.S. debt repurchase increased from 2 billion to 4 billion);
② He sent live broadcast invitations in advance to his paid group members (SEC heads and various crypto CEOs);
③ Those who received the live broadcast invitations made early arrangements (ETF spot inflows);
④ During the live broadcast, they talked about some ambiguous matters, letting the market fill in the blanks;
⑤ The market has already assumed: the CLARITY Act will definitely pass on September 15;
⑥ As a result, shorts were blown up last night (1.9 billion USD vanished)...
Sigh, it's still better to be a KOL and have a quality paid group.$BTC70000 $ETH 2340 surging, is the crypto bull really here?
Real trading @玩的就是实盘 九总
This round of rise seems like the bull is here, but in fact, it is the market's dynamic response based on news. When the US Senate has set the voting date for the Clarity Act in September, a bill that originally seemed impossible and was even delayed to next year for voting has turned back into a certain bill. This is a crucial key point!
The SEC proposed new crypto product rules before the White House summit. And with Trump hosting this crypto summit, the crypto market has been dull for a long time. Finally, we see a bit of light. The market will react quickly and support Trump with actions. Only Trump can change the pattern of the crypto market, so this is the main important reason for this rise. The timing, space, and logic all align.
Some people ask if the bull is here this time? My personal understanding is that this is a good development sign, not that the bull is really here. Next, we need to see if the Senate bill will really pass, what important news Wash will release at the annual meeting on the 28th of this month, and whether the rate cut expectations will be brought forward. These three important pieces of news will determine whether crypto will take off. It is not confirmed that the bull is here just based on last night's news. Whether the bull comes or not depends on whether it can be successfully implemented within a month!Leopold Aschenbrenner, once at the height of his fame, has been dubbed the "AI Stock God" by the market. He came from the old FTX team, and his fund size grew from $225 million to $20.2 billion, once becoming a global trendsetter in the AI sector. The most thought-provoking turning point is hidden in the portfolio report: in Q1, he clearly predicted chip storage overheating and held over $8 billion in put options as risk insurance, always alert to any pullback. But by Q2, he made a fatal decision—to fully sell all hedging and protective positions, completely turning into a pure long position without protection. More than half of the funds are concentrated on the leading storage stocks: just SanDisk's $SNDK and $MU holdings account for 55.5%. More than twenty seemingly scattered stocks all belong to the same industry chain in AI computing power, storage, and data centers, with highly resonant risks. In July, the AI sector experienced a systematic sell-off, with Micron pulling back as much as 35.9% and SanDisk plunging 55.3%. Combined with high leverage amplifying losses, the safety cushion was quickly depleted, and the fund fell into a liquidity crisis, ultimately having to sell most of its holdings at a discount to Citadel. Fortunately, he still holds unlisted shares in Anthropic and other companies, so he hasn't lost everything. This story is also a wake-up call for crypto traders: no matter how optimistic you are about a particular track, don't go all-in and abandon risk hedging. No matter how strong your prediction is, you can't withstand the black swan strategy of concentrated heavy positions in a single direction. #BTC突破69000美元, how far can this round of rally go? #海力士40万Last night, the crypto space experienced a strong surge. $BTC surged above $69,000 for the first time in two months, rising over 6% in a single day; $ETH also surged 20% simultaneously, with market sentiment clearly warming up. Meanwhile, nearly $2 billion in positions were liquidated in the crypto market, forcing a large number of shorts to exit. So the question arises: Is this rally really just a simple case of funds entering to buy? Actually, there are three key factors behind it. 1. Concentrated short liquidations accelerate the rally The biggest feature of this surge is the very rapid breakout. When BTC broke through a key level, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated. This created a cycle: price rises → short squeeze → forced buy to cover → pushing the price even higher. So this rally is not purely retail chasing the price, but an accelerated rise formed after the release of short pressure. 2. Improved regulatory expectations boost risk appetite Recently, the US crypto regulatory environment has been continuously improving. Trump is pushing the "CLARITY Act," aiming to further clarify: which crypto assets are securities; which are commodities; and how the SEC and CFTC will regulate in the future. Clearer regulation will reduce institutional concerns about entering the market. The market trades not just on short-term news but on expectations for the future development of the crypto industry. 3. Improved liquidity brings renewed attention to risk assets Besides factors within the crypto market itself, the macro environment has also changed. The US has expanded its long-term bond repurchase program, and the market believes this could improve liquidity conditions After BTC and ETH suddenly broke through these past two days, $SOL has clearly followed suit. SOL is currently around $80, having reclaimed an important previous resistance area. Yesterday, SOL surged about 9% at one point, and the market has started to discuss whether it can open up the next phase of growth. What I find most interesting about SOL now is not just that it’s rising quickly, but that it happens to be in a rather special position: BTC breaks through ↓ ETH breaks through ↓ capital starts seeking higher Beta ↓ SOL becomes one of the first mainstream assets to absorb capital ↓ if SOL continues to break through ↓ capital may then further spread to other altcoins. So, in a way, SOL is currently the market’s risk appetite thermometer. Moreover, it’s no longer just a public chain favored by retail traders. Institutional entry is increasing. Currently, the cumulative net inflow of Solana ETFs/ETPs in the US market has exceeded $1.1B, and Morgan Stanley has also launched Solana products with staking mechanisms. This means: Previously: Retail investors bought SOL → speculated on the ecosystem → SOL price rose Now gradually becoming: Institutional allocation → ETF/ETP → SOL spot demand → staking → earning network rewards This change is actually quite significant. But I wouldn’t be outright bullish just because of this. Because SOL’s biggest risk is also obvious: Price increase ≠ on-chain fundamentals recovering in sync. Recently Sol$BTC $ETH #BTC突破69000美元, how far can this round of rally go? At the time of writing, BTC was trading near $69,500, and intraday it briefly approached $69,900; ETH rose to around $2,250, with a 24-hour increase of about 18%, clearly outperforming BTC. This round of market movement was mainly driven by three factors: First, long-term US Treasury yields retreated, the US dollar weakened in tandem, and liquidity pressure on risk assets temporarily eased. Second, the previous market was overly concentrated in short positions. After BTC broke out of the range of volatility, a chain of forced liquidations was triggered, and passive buying further pushed the price higher, creating a clear short squeeze effect. Third, ETH has long lagged behind BTC in its early performance, resulting in even greater short crowding. When market sentiment warmed, funds began to replenish highly elastic assets, causing ETH to catch up. From the market structure, BTC is repeatedly testing the $70,000 mark. If it can effectively break out and stabilize above the level, the short-term trend may continue to extend upward; If the price drops quickly after a breakout, the lower level should be watched at $68,000, with further support between $64,000 and $65,000. For ETH, first look for resistance near $2,300; below, watch the $2,100 to $2,200 range, with $2,000 remaining an important psychological level. Currently, the market trend is bullish, but prices are rising rapidly, and sentiment and leverage are also increasing simultaneously. Short squeezes can drive prices up quickly, but they cannot replace sustained spot demand. What really matters next is:今日加密市场骤然升温，全板块同步反弹，直接驱动因素清晰且集中。首先是机构资金大举回流，美国现货比特币ETF连续两日录得显著净流入，周一约2.98亿美元、周二约1.89亿美元，一举扭转此前持续多日的净流出态势。贝莱德、富达等头部基金重新进场，为BTC在64,000美元附近提供坚实支撑，也带动全市场风险偏好回暖。 其次，市场情绪出现明显修复。恐惧与贪婪指数从月初的极度恐惧区域快速回升至40以上，空头回补与短线资金回流形成合力，推动BTC一度逼近65,000美元，主流山寨币同步走高，整体交投活跃度显著提升。 政策与宏观预期同步改善。今日特朗普将与加密行业领袖会面，市场对监管明朗化抱有期待；同时FOMC会议纪要即将公布，投资者对美联储政策路径的预期趋于乐观。宏观流动性预期的边际改善，为风险资产提供了喘息空间，加密市场作为高beta资产率先反应。 整体来看，这轮反弹由机构买盘、情绪修复与政策预期三重共振推动，短期动能较强。但需注意，ETF资金流向的持续性、宏观数据落地后的预期差，以及监管表态的实际内容，都可能引发波动。市场尚未走出震荡格局，追高需谨慎，仓位管理仍是关键。 风险提示：加密资产价格波#WhiteHouseSummit: Trump said he discussed buying BTC ——$BTC
When the King of Understanding said "talked about buying $BTC," it immediately pushed the market to 70,000
I checked in the evening, BTC broke through 70,000, reaching as high as around 70,100. My long position opened at 64,700 is still open, with a considerable floating profit. $ETH also surged above 2,100, rising nearly 10%. There were 1.4 billion liquidations in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 90%, basically wiped out by this wave.
The trigger for this rally was the King of Understanding's White House crypto meeting—Trump stated that his administration has discussed accumulating a "substantial amount" of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, saying crypto "greatly alleviates the pressure on the dollar." He also urged Congress to expedite the passage of the Clarity Act, saying the US must lead China and other countries, and confirmed the voting date of September 15. Additionally, top crypto figures like the CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, and Robinhood were present.
Then BTC surged from 64,000 straight to 70,000. The King of Understanding's words are indeed more effective than any technical indicator.
However, we still need to watch closely. The Clarity Act is stuck in the Senate due to unresolved ethical clauses, so whether it will pass on September 15 is still uncertain. The US Treasury is still discussing whether to expand Bitcoin reserves; it's only at the discussion stage with no timeline. A pullback is normal.
70,000 was reached, but whether it can hold depends on volume. Why did Bitcoin suddenly surge last night?
1: Macro liquidity release, the US increased Treasury repurchase efforts, the market interprets this as a liquidity easing signal, raising risk appetite and boosting the market.
2: The market has been consolidating in a range for over 80 days, now choosing to break upwards, but whether this is a valid breakout or a false breakout to lure buyers remains to be seen over time.
3: After a volume-driven surge, the market is unlikely to immediately reverse downward; a probable phase of trapping buyers will occur. It has already surged to the 70K level. The previous target of 68K is clearly conservative; patience is needed to observe the market before deciding on shorting opportunities. News: Citibank (Citi) is preparing to launch Bitcoin custody services, further expanding institutional crypto entry.
Why it matters:
1️⃣ Custody is the "last mile" for institutional entry: compliant custody solves the most troublesome asset security issues for institutions;
2️⃣ The signal is more important than the business itself: Wall Street giants are all laying out plans, indicating that crypto assets are entering mainstream asset allocation frameworks;
3️⃣ Combined with new SEC regulations and the GENIUS Act: regulatory frameworks + compliant channels are being improved simultaneously.
Impact on the market:
• Short term: positive sentiment, but implementation will take time, don’t expect immediate results;
• Medium term: incremental institutional funds are a slow variable, continuously lifting the bottom;
• Structurally: BTC as the preferred custody asset, its allocation value continues to be strengthened.
Wall Street is not here for short-term speculation; they are here to allocate assets — this determines the underlying tone of the bull market.
(Original analysis, data from public reports, DYOR) #BTC #institutional $BTCThe latest released July FOMC minutes have once again brought the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve to the forefront.
The final vote was 9 to 3 to maintain the interest rate range at 3.50%-3.75%, but behind those three dissenting votes were broader hawkish concerns.
Three regional Fed presidents explicitly advocated for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike, with a straightforward reason: inflation remains stubbornly above target, and if no action is taken now, a higher price may have to be paid later.
The minutes also show that "many" participants acknowledged that if prices do not continue to fall, further policy tightening is almost inevitable; some even felt that current financial conditions are not tight enough to truly push inflation back to 2%.
The economy itself is not bad—growth is steady, employment is balanced, and investment and productivity are not weak.
The real trouble lies in supply shocks, especially the energy price pressures caused by the Middle East situation, which make inflation more sticky. Since the new chair Wash took office, the committee has clearly reduced forward guidance and emphasized "data dependence," making it harder for the market to price in the next moves in advance.
Overall, the minutes lean hawkish but do not immediately lock in a rate hike in September. The real direction will be decided by inflation and employment data in the coming weeks. If price cooling falls short of expectations, internal pressure to raise rates will quickly intensify. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 SOL has risen, but not that 'short bullish candle.' +11% is pretty good, about the same as BTC, but a bit less impressive than ETH. Hard Data (OKX SOL/USDT): · Current price about $85 · 24h $76.7 – $87.2 · 24h +10.7%, trading volume about $374M (7-day average 3.3x) · 7 days +11% vs ETH +19% vs BTC +9% · Only -14% down to the ATH of $98—much closer than ETH to -54% ATH, with the SOL/ETH rate down 0.3% today. ETH is adjusting the exchange rate, while SOL hasn't received the same premium. Figure 1: Following the rise, but not as strong as ETH. For 90 days, SOL has been in the $75–$95 range, unlike ETH's deep V-shaped drop. Volume increased today, but 3.3x trading volume vs. ETH 4.5x—the capital priority is not SOL. With only 14% of its ATH, SOL is not an "oversold rebound" but rather a "rebound within a high range." Figure 2 + Figure 3: The third logic, only half of the 45-day relative strength is valid today: ETH curve has outperformed SOL and BTC. 24H: ETH +17.7%, SOL +10.7%, SOL rose about 7 percentage points less than ETH. BTC brokeCitigroup (C) has officially confirmed that it will provide Bitcoin (BTC) custody services to institutional clients through its new "Custody+" platform later in 2026, becoming the first major U.S. bank to integrate virtual assets with traditional stocks and bonds under the same custody framework. The initial phase will support only BTC, with potential future expansion to mainstream tokens such as ETH, SOL, USDC, and USDT.
The fundamental driver behind this entry is regulatory easing: in May 2025, the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) officially approved banks to offer virtual asset custody, the SEC repealed SAB 121 and implemented the new SAB 122 regulation, significantly lowering capital requirements for financial institutions holding crypto assets. Coupled with the long-term gap in institutional custody infrastructure following exchange collapses in 2022-2023, "regulated capital" such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds urgently need bank-grade channels to hold coins directly rather than detouring through other routes. Citigroup's custody network covers over 100 markets, with its own custody scale around $24 trillion, filling a critical gap upon entry.
In the short term, the opening of traditional capital entry channels constitutes a substantial positive for core assets like BTC 📈; however, the medium to long term still requires observation—Citigroup has yet to disclose specific fees, insurance arrangements, and security responsibility allocations, the structural gap of FDIC not covering digital assets remains unresolved, and there are uncertainties in cybersecurity and regulatory evolution, so caution is advised in the long term 📉. #BTC breaks through $69,000, how far can this rally go? $BTC $ETH $SOL $OKB This $HYPE long position was entered around 59.4, and now it's at 72, achieving 10x returns with 50x leverage. This kind of trend looks great, but holding on is actually quite agonizing.
Why did I dare to buy at that time? Looking at the 4-hour chart, it had been consolidating around 59 for a long time, unable to drop further, and volume had shrunk—a typical accumulation phase. Also, with new tokens like this, once capital consensus forms, the pump can be relentless. Sure enough, a big bullish candle broke through directly, giving no chance to get in.
But now at 72, I actually hesitate to make a move. The previous high reached 72.6, and now it’s oscillating near 72, with the 4-hour candle leaving an upper shadow. What does this indicate? Selling pressure is starting above, and buyers chasing the high are hesitating. With 50x leverage, this kind of consolidation is deadly; even a slight pullback can wipe out profits.
My strategy is clear: raise the stop loss directly above the entry price, around 60, so this position is already in a no-lose situation. For the remaining position, I’ll see if it can hold above 70. If it consolidates and then breaks through 72.6, there’s still room to run; but if it breaks below 70, I’ll take most profits off the table and not gamble against it. This round of rally is not purely driven by sentiment but is the result of multiple factors resonating together.
The primary catalyst is the U.S. Treasury's announcement to at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion per operation, which helps lower long-term interest rates and improve bond market liquidity, thereby boosting risk asset appetite.
Secondly, the derivatives market saw forced liquidation of over $1.4 billion in short positions, with shorts accounting for more than 90%, creating a clear short squeeze effect that further amplified the gains.
Additionally, the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded consecutive net inflows in recent days, reversing previous net outflows and providing capital support for the rally.
The most critical signal is the price reclaiming the 200-day moving average. Bitcoin had been trading below this average for about 270 days, one of the longest weak periods in history, making this recovery structurally significant.
The psychological resistance at 70000-70500, once effectively broken, points the next target to the 73000-76000 range; support levels to watch are the 68000 breakout confirmation zone and around 66500.
Current short-term indicators have entered overbought territory, implying a higher probability of a short-term pullback or high-level consolidation.
This rally is a rebound driven by improved macro liquidity expectations combined with technical oversold recovery, rather than a full-scale bull market restart. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ 4 Core Reasons for ETH's Surge Yesterday
1. U.S. Treasury Bond Buybacks (The Most Direct Trigger)
The U.S. announced an expansion of long-term Treasury bond buybacks, causing a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening dollar.
With bond yields falling, capital flowed into risk assets, lifting BTC and ETH simultaneously, driven by macro liquidity.
2. Short Squeeze in the Futures Market (Amplifying the Rally)
A large number of short positions had accumulated earlier; after the price broke upward, many shorts were forcibly liquidated;
Short sellers had to buy ETH to close positions, further pushing prices higher, creating a positive feedback loop for the rally, with ETH's gains stronger than BTC's.
3. Breakthrough of Key Technical Resistance
ETH surged past the critical resistance at $2000 plus the 200-day moving average, triggering algorithmic long buy orders, with trading volume increasing simultaneously, attracting technical traders to chase the rally.
4. ETF Capital Inflows + Improved Regulatory Sentiment
ETH spot ETFs recorded net inflows for several consecutive days; the market expects the U.S. crypto regulatory framework to become clearer, raising institutional risk appetite and providing underlying buying support.
$ETH #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 $SNDK $SKHYNIX SK Hynix (SK Hynix) Comprehensive Analysis
Risk Warning: This is only an industry logic review and does not constitute investment advice. Ticker: Korean stock 000660, US ADR: SKHY.
Business Overview
The world's second-largest memory chip manufacturer, with two core segments: DRAM (about 73% of revenue) + NAND flash (about 27% of revenue).
• DRAM: Standard server/PC/mobile memory + HBM high-bandwidth memory (AI core ace), HBM market share about 56-58%, key supplier to NVIDIA, with gross margin significantly higher than standard DRAM.
• NAND: Consumer SSDs, enterprise SSDs, AI inference large-capacity QLC storage, competing with SanDisk and Kioxia.
Core contradiction: It is both the leading HBM player in AI high growth and a traditional cyclical memory company, combining two attributes.
Bullish Logic
1. Absolute leader in the HBM industry, AI computing power is a must-have
AI GPUs rely on HBM; bandwidth bottlenecks constrain large model training and inference. HBM3E has been widely supplied, HBM4 is entering mass production ramp-up, with multi-year long-term contracts signed with overseas cloud providers, securing mid-to-long-term capacity. HBM product gross margins are significantly higher than standard memory chips.
New wafer fabs and advanced packaging capacity expansion cycles are very long, making it difficult to quickly fill the gap in the short term, resulting in structural shortages in the industry.
2. Standard DRAM and NAND entering an upcycle
Capacity is heavily tilted towards HBM, squeezing supply of general memory and flash, DRAM/NAND ASPs continue to rise, company profits significantly recover, free cash flow greatly improves, feeding back into HBM R&D and capacity expansion.
3. AI inference brings a second growth curve
Besides training-end HBM, AI inference servers drive demand for large-capacity server DRAM and enterprise SSDs (QLC), opening incremental space beyond training.
4. Long-term contracts smooth out cycle fluctuations
Leading cloud providers sign 3-5 year long-term supply agreements with deposits and price adjustment mechanisms, partially hedging against the cyclical volatility of memory prices.
Key Risks (Main Market Concerns)
1. Competitors catching up, HBM market share erosion
Samsung is massively expanding HBM4 production, Micron's HBM4 has completed customer certification. Future volume from two competitors will squeeze market share, suppress product prices, and reduce excess profits.
2. Memory cycle has not disappeared, only masked by AI
HBM is structurally tight, but standard DRAM/NAND remain strongly cyclical products.
If large-scale capital expenditures from various players materialize, capacity releases, and consumer electronics demand weakens, traditional memory prices will be pressured again, dragging down overall profits. Management's "end of cycle" judgment is optimistic, not a guaranteed outcome.
3. AI capital expenditure below expectations risk
If large model iteration slows and cloud providers cut capital budgets, HBM demand will be directly impacted, representing the biggest narrative risk. Most HBM prices are tied to long-term contracts, with price adjustments lagging spot market trends, reducing earnings elasticity.
4. Huge capital expenditure pressure
Continuous investment is needed for fabs, EUV equipment, and advanced packaging, with massive capital spending consuming cash flow; any mismatch in expansion pace could lead to future oversupply risks.
5. Geopolitical and domestic competition
Domestic memory manufacturers continue to catch up in general DRAM and NAND; the gap in high-end HBM remains large but will suppress prices of standard memory products in the mid-to-long term; export controls bring supply chain uncertainties.
Key Technical Levels (Korean stock 000660, KRW)
• Strong resistance: Previous historical high range; after positive news is priced in, a significant correction in 2026 is typical of a positive news realization phase.
• Core support: Previous rally launch platform; breaking below would indicate market doubts about the AI memory supercycle narrative.
US ADR SKHY and Korean stock trends are basically synchronized; note ADR is affected by exchange rate, liquidity, and dilution factors.
Three Scenario Simulations
1. Base Case (Neutral)
AI capital expenditure remains robust, HBM continues to be tight, HBM4 ramps smoothly; standard DRAM/NAND cycle oscillates at high levels. The company maintains high profits, but valuation is constrained by cyclical attributes, with stock price fluctuating in line with HBM shipments, memory ASPs, and US tech sector.
2. Optimistic Case
AI training and inference demand continues to explode; Samsung and Micron's HBM yield ramp-up falls short of expectations, Hynix maintains high market share; long-term contracts continue to be fulfilled, earnings consistently beat expectations. Stock price hits new highs.
3. Pessimistic Case
Cloud providers cut AI capital expenditure; competitors massively ramp up HBM production, sharply compressing HBM premiums; general memory capacity oversupply, ASP declines. Earnings are rapidly revised down, stock price deeply corrects.
Key Tracking Indicators
1. Shipment progress and yield of each generation of HBM products, status of customer long-term contracts
2. Spot and contract prices of DRAM and NAND
3. Capital expenditure plans and expansion pace
4. Capital expenditure guidance from North American cloud providers
5. Customer certification and capacity progress of Samsung and Micron HBM
Summary
SK Hynix is a core beneficiary of the AI memory chain but is not a pure growth stock; it inherently carries memory cycle characteristics.
The core investment game: whether the structural incremental growth brought by AI can continuously offset the inherent cyclical fluctuations of traditional memory.BlackRock released a 14-page faith recharge report on BTC yesterday 🫡 I just finished reading the entire text. First, it spent a large portion discussing why BTC halved from its peak, mainly for two reasons. One was the epic deleveraging in October last year, when global BTC leverage exceeded $90 billion, and 80% of it was not from CME but offshore exchanges. The whole bubble had grown very large and shaky, so after the US announced tariff policies on China, it directly popped. BTC leverage dropped by $20 billion in a single day, causing the largest single-day OI decline in history, triggering a series of cascading liquidations.
So this is BlackRock's explanation for why BTC started to fall, but the problem is, logically, after deleveraging, it should have continued to recover and rise. After all, the US stock market was unaffected by the tariff war and kept hitting new highs. So why did BTC seem like an old dog broken in the middle, lying on the ground and unable to get up?
This is the key point explained in the second part of the report. From the launch of BTC ETFs until last October, a total of $60 billion flowed in, while the currently popular AI-related ETFs only saw $10 billion inflow in the same period. So before BTC was hit hard, its capital attraction was 6 times that of AI!
After October, BTC ETFs saw an outflow of $5 billion, while AI-related ETFs had an inflow of $46 billion. In other words, after being hit, AI's capital attraction was 92 times that of BTC 😰
So the scenario is that after deleveraging, things should have been healthier, but because the deleveraging was too severe, it directly destroyed players' confidence, so they stopped playing and turned to AI next door.
However, BlackRock believes this is just cyclical capital rotation. AI funds will eventually return to BTC in the future. Capital does not think BTC is bad; it just finds AI's risk/reward more attractive at this stage.
In the end, BlackRock still strongly recommends everyone allocate 1%-2% of their portfolio to invest in BTC. BTC climbed back to $70,000 for the first time in nearly three months, reaching a 24-hour high of $70,000, an increase of over 7%, marking a new high since early June. ETH also surged over 18%, at one point reaching $2,300, the highest since May. In the past hour, net liquidations across the network exceeded $1.3 billion, with almost all positions being bearish. This round of surge is mainly driven by the resonance of four major engines! First, the core was definitely an epic short squeeze. After months of concentrated short trades, over $1 billion in BTC short positions were liquidated within about one hour, marking the largest wave of short liquidations since 2021. The price rise triggered a chain of liquidations, and passive buying further amplified the rally. On that day, 126,000 traders across the network liquidated a total of $1.92 billion in positions, setting the largest short liquidation day in history. Second, Trump made a dual breakthrough in regulatory policy. On the 19th, Trump met with crypto industry executives from Coinbase, Gemini, Ripple, and other crypto companies at the White House, publicly urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act. On the same day, the SEC introduced new regulations on Crypto Assets, establishing clear channels for token financing and introducing a safe harbor mechanism for investment contracts for the first time. The White House convened meetings with the President, crypto industry executives, and heads of the SEC and CFTC. This marks the official entry of digital assets into the national financial strategy discussion level. Third, the U.S. Treasury Department is expanding its Treasury bond repurchases, announcing that the repurchase scale for 10- to 30-year bonds will be at least doubled, with each operation no less than $4 billion. The new policy will be implemented in September#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
When $BTC surged to 69000, the FOMC minutes were just released.
9 to 3. Three members want to raise interest rates.
The exact quote from the minutes: "If inflation fails to continue declining, policy may need to tighten further."
There is still room for rate hikes, but BTC peaked at 69888, just 112 dollars short of 70000. $ETH followed with an 8% rise. The macro outlook is hawkish, yet risk assets are rising. It doesn't quite add up.
Looking at the market, it seems more like short covering.
There were too many short positions stacked above 69000; once the price broke through, stop losses triggered, programmatic buy orders followed, and momentum pushed it close to 70000. Spot market followed a bit slower, turnover at the high was insufficient, and the price fell back near 68000.
VanEck said the capitulation indicator was triggered, and the correction is nearing its end. That might be right. But this candlestick doesn't look like institutions re-entering, more like shorts were too crowded and got swept away in one wave.
Next, watch two things: whether 68000 can hold sideways, and whether ETF net flows tomorrow are inflows or outflows.
Holding sideways and inflows mean real buying pressure. Failing to hold and outflows mean today was just a meal served by the shorts.Last night, the market experienced a rare divergence: the Federal Reserve minutes released a hawkish signal, yet the crypto market and risk assets rebounded simultaneously.
There are three core reasons:
First, the FOMC minutes showed an increase in hawkish forces within the Federal Reserve, with several officials still worried about inflation recurring, and expectations for rate cuts have not fully opened.
Second, what truly drove the market sentiment reversal was the U.S. Treasury expanding the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases. Although this is not QE, it sent an important signal: the U.S. is beginning to pay attention to the financing pressure caused by excessively high long-term interest rates. Long-term bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, and funds flowed back into risk assets.
Third, crypto regulation saw positive progress. Trump met with industry representatives from Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, and others, while also promoting the CLARITY Act. The market expects U.S. crypto regulation to shift from an "enforcement mode" to a "rules-based mode."
Therefore, last night’s market rise essentially reflected the resonance of two forces:
At the macro level: declining long-term bond yields and a pressured dollar provided liquidity space for the market.
At the industry level: improved regulatory expectations enhanced long-term confidence in crypto assets.
The Federal Reserve focuses on inflation, the Treasury focuses on debt costs, and the market is seeking a balance between the two.
In the short term, funds are reassessing whether the U.S. can control inflation while avoiding further deterioration of long-term financing pressure. $ZEC long near 501 on this trade, 50x leverage, now at 553, floating profit 518%. This is not purely technical slow grinding; it's a combined ignition of news and chips: around the time the Grayscale Zcash Trust document revision and the proposed NYSE Arca listing news came out, the market volume directly surged, shooting from the low of 500.34 straight up to 581.44. Now at around 553, it's digesting after a pullback from the high.
Looking at the 1-hour chart: 500-510 was originally a sideways zone with no demand, suddenly volume picked up, indicating capital is borrowing the narrative to reprice. But the 581 area has already tested resistance; now it's pulling back to the 550-540 range. The key is to see if "there are still buyers after the pump" or if this is just a one-off news-driven move. You can't sleep on 50x leverage in altcoins/old coins; their volatility is more sentiment-driven than SHIB, just with a bit of institutional narrative veneer.
Position-wise:
• Above: 560-565, then the high at 581.44; only breaking 581 looks like the second leg.
• Middle: 540-550, currently grinding around here.
• Below: 520, 500-510. Pulling back to 520 can still be considered consolidation; below 500, the logic of this trade falls apart.
News can bring the first wave, but whether it continues depends on volume and order flow. For now, I won't add drama, just watching the attitude points at 540 and 581.
Will update if there are changes; market feel is more important than headlines. $BTC $ETH #ETH strong rally, short liquidations exceed $1.1 billion
"Ethereum single-day short squeeze of $1.1 billion: Who is paying for this liquidity squeeze?"
Ethereum's large bullish candle directly broke through a dense resistance zone, with over $1.1 billion in derivative short positions liquidated across the network within 24 hours.
Looking at the exchange order book depth chart reveals that the true driver behind this surge was a chain reaction of algorithmic liquidation bots trampling shorts. When the price broke through key defenses, system-triggered forced market buy orders instantly consumed the thin sell orders, creating a classic liquidity void.
Market makers have long passed hedging costs onto retail traders. Currently, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts has been pushed to an extreme 38%, meaning that for every $10,000 long position held, $10 is lost daily just from overnight friction costs. Bulls chasing the rally think they are riding the main wave, but in reality, they are paying expensive tolls to the shorts every day.
The most pragmatic risk control move now is to exit high-leverage long positions, convert holdings to spot, or raise margin ratios above 300%. If the funding rate remains above 0.03% for three consecutive settlement periods, initiating spot-futures arbitrage on the spot side to capture over 30% annualized risk-free spread is far more profitable than fighting at high funding rates. $ETH Crypto Stocks Rally Together: A Bull Market Trumpet or a "Bull Trap Party"?
If the US crypto sector on August 19th was a party, then the bears were probably the only ones not invited.
After BTC rose more than 6% and broke through $68,000, crypto concept stocks collectively surged. Coinbase rose about 10%, Strategy about 13%, Circle about 10%, with related crypto stocks showing a clear broad rally.
More importantly, this was not simply driven by a single company's earnings report or M&A news, but the entire sector rose along with BTC.
This deserves attention.
Because crypto concept stocks actually serve as a "magnifying glass" to observe market risk appetite. When investors only want to buy BTC, it indicates the market is still cautious; when funds start buying exchanges, stablecoin companies, miners, and crypto brokers simultaneously, it shows the market is willing to take on higher risk, betting on the future of the entire industry.
Recently, the US policy environment has also provided a boost to this sentiment.
So I believe this rally cannot simply be classified as an ordinary rebound.
But whether it is a trend reversal still needs to be observed.
Because the biggest feature of crypto concept stocks is their "high volatility." BTC rises 6%, some related stocks rise 10% or even more, which looks very impressive; but once BTC pulls back, these stocks may quickly give back their gains $BTC #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ August 20th Noon View by Da Huang
Yesterday, gold prices surged to 4527, mainly driven by the US Treasury repo plan stimulus. The decline in long-term bond yields weakened the US dollar, pushing gold prices sharply higher.
Note, this is only a liquidity adjustment, not QE, and cannot solve long-term debt issues. Once yields rebound later, profit-taking at high levels is likely to concentrate, causing a rapid pullback.
Geopolitical situations remain volatile, providing support for gold as a safe haven, but rising oil prices will lift inflation expectations again, limiting upside potential.
After four hours of continuous gains, gold entered a high-level consolidation. Indicators have fallen back from overbought, weakening short-term momentum. Avoid chasing gains at high levels; wait for a pullback and stabilization before participating.
Reference: Pullback to 4465-4475 area, stop loss at 4450, target 4510-4530 $XAU GRVT trades down at $GRVT $0.29672 (-2.73%), attempting a recovery after bouncing off local support at $GRVT $0.29285. Price is testing short-term resistance at MA5 ($0.29704), while remaining below higher dynamic resistance levels at MA10 ($0.29918) and MA20 ($0.30383). MACD reflects sustained bearish momentum (-0.00193).
Reclaiming $0.29704 opens a path toward MA10 resistance at $0.29918 and the local high at $0.31119. #FOMC9To3Split #BTCBreaks69000 #OKX.ai $BTC is rallying, is the bear market over??
Let's review the highest and lowest points of the previous two bear markets:
1. December 2017 - December 2018, a full year, drop from 19000 to 3300
2. November 2021 - November 2022, a full year, drop from 69000 to 18000
It can be seen that the last two cycles each lasted about a year in terms of time.
But the drop in 2017 was 82%, and in 2021 it was 73%.
This time, from last October until now, it's also close to a year, but the overall drop is only about 50%.
In terms of time, it almost matches, but in terms of drop, it seems this time the decline isn't deep enough.
So do you think this is the bottom now???
$BTC $ETH Originally, when the overall market is doing well, I generally don't want to look at small coins because it's tiring and I don't make much money. But since I started talking about it, I'll finish. Yesterday, I saw that $btw contracts were continuously flowing in while spot was flowing out. I checked spot on other exchanges, and indeed the trading volume increased. Then this morning, I saw the price dropped by nearly half, but there wasn't much liquidation of long positions. So I guess these long positions were actively closed. Why actively close at this time? It could be their own withdrawal or the withdrawal of copy-trading wild whales. It might continue, but it's harder to bet now because you don't know if the longs are the counterparty or the shorts are the counterparty. Alright, that's it. I won't talk about this anymore because I feel my $BTC is still going to rise #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
It seems the Federal Reserve is not entirely united internally; is this just a smokescreen or are the divisions really starting?
The vote was 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, with 3 members directly supporting a rate hike. This signal is definitely not very friendly for short-term BTC and ETH, since there was a big rally earlier, and now the market has to reassess rate cut expectations.
But I don't think we should immediately interpret this as "the Fed is going to hike rates again." What really matters are the upcoming inflation and employment data. As long as the data continues to cool down, the voices of these 3 hawks will eventually be repriced by the market.
Regarding BTC, I remain cautious in the short term. There was already a rally earlier, and I personally think the area around 70,000 is a key top for this wave. If it really reaches there, I will consider reducing positions or even looking for shorting opportunities. But in the long term, I am still bullish on BTC; these two views are not contradictory.
I am actually more focused on ETH. Its volatility is clearly greater than BTC's. Once risk appetite returns, ETH is very likely to continue outperforming; but conversely, if the market weakens, ETH will also fall faster. So if it rallies to around 2300–2400, I won't stubbornly chase it.
In short: BTC is about direction, ETH is about volatility. Watch out for short-term pullbacks, but I remain optimistic in the long term. $BTC $ETH $BTC
First things first: macro (monthly chart) plan updated
With a major move just performed by the market in a very short period of recent time, quite literally in one day, it has implications on the larger timeframe due to the sheer extent of the move, but also the volume and breach of the general rhythm of boredom we saw recently.
That's a good thing. The fact we paid a short loss for it is less favourable.
$BTC
#FOMC9To3Split
#BTCBreaks69000 Google's $MRVL up to $12.2 billion stock option agreement triggers a revaluation of ASIC, with the core issue being whether the initial unlocking of only 1.36 million shares under the performance clause can support institutional risk appetite before the August 27 earnings report.
The exercise price set at $206.58 reflects long-term capital's valuation anchoring on the high-end ASIC computing power supply chain, with market performance showing capital reallocating back to the customized chip chain.
In terms of driving factors, actual order fulfillment constraints outweigh short-term news catalysts, with institutional positions prioritizing the evaluation of the pace at which every $500 million in procurement unlocks a batch of stock options before the earnings report, to measure the real contribution of computing power expenditure to profitability.
The bullish scenario requires the August 27 earnings report to confirm a steep procurement slope for customized chips, and that U.S. stock risk appetite does not deteriorate due to inflation data fluctuations. If guidance verifies the smooth achievement of the first-year unlocking condition of 1.36 million shares, institutional long positions will further increase bets on the potential $120 billion procurement scale's forward premium. The failure signal would be a collective pullback in high-valuation chip stocks triggered by macro liquidity tightening.
The bearish scenario is triggered if cloud giants slow down their computing power capital expenditure pace, causing the annual procurement amount to fail to drive the timely unlocking of 240 batches of stock options. If the order fulfillment progress disclosed in the earnings report lags market expectations, the previously rapidly accounted valuation premium will face concentrated compression. The failure signal would be procurement agreements being realized earlier than expected.
Currently, institutional positions are highly sensitive to positive pricing, with the exercise price of $206.58 becoming the key price benchmark for the market to test the certainty of forward growth.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the actual order guidance disclosed in the August 27 earnings report and the position adjustment dynamics in the U.S. tech sector.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大After a 7.1% surge in $BTC, 44,300 BTC were suddenly transferred to exchanges.
BTC achieved its best single-day performance since February, but many short-term holders began selling as the price rose.
Analyst Darkfost stated that after BTC price broke through the short-term holder cost line of about $67,100, over 44,300 BTC in profit were transferred to exchanges, marking the largest short-term profit-taking move this year.
Combining related news, the driving forces behind this surge can be analyzed as:
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall immediately
- Trump stated at a crypto conference that the U.S. is considering purchasing a large amount of Bitcoin and is again pushing the CLARITY Act.
So this rally was not without catalysts, but after the positive push in price, it also released pent-up selling pressure.
Although transfers to exchanges do not equal all sales, it indicates that short-term holdings are starting to loosen.
Further observation is needed; if the market can absorb this potential selling pressure and hold its position, the breakout will have a foundation to continue.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Gold price breaks through $4,500, hitting a two-month high. Since August, gold has gained nearly 9%, recording the largest weekly increase of the year just last week. Compared to BTC's wild ride from 62,800 to 70,000, gold's rise feels more like boiling a frog slowly—you feel it's going up, and indeed it has risen quite a bit.
The U.S. Treasury announced doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing long-term bond yields to decline and the dollar to weaken. Coupled with the September rate hike expectations dropping to around 30%, the logic of real interest rates is reinforced. Simply put: the lower the probability of a rate hike, the more attractive non-yielding assets become. Gold and BTC share highly overlapping driving logic in this round.
But there's something interesting.
CoinDesk data shows gold rose 10% in August, while Bitcoin has been relatively weak over the past nine months. Both are non-yielding assets and share the inflation-hedging narrative, yet gold is steadily pushing upward while BTC is highly volatile. Bank of America strategist Hartnett has turned bullish on gold, but institutions remain cautious about BTC.
For gold, after surpassing 4,500, the next hurdle is 4,600-4,700. Structural supports include central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and weakening dollar credit. However, the hot AI investment trend also siphons off funds from gold prices—money is being drawn into tech stocks, so gold's buying momentum isn't as strong as expected.
In any case, the rise of gold and BTC in this cycle is driven by the same underlying logic. One is steady, the other wild—it's up to you to choose.
$XAUT $BTC $SNDK 美债规模正式突破40万亿美元，相当于人均欠债11.6万美元，美股这一次是真的被美债给吓惨了，更吓人的还在后面，美国财政部亲自下场稳长债。 财长贝森特突然宣布，10~30年期的美债回购规模至少翻倍，是用发短债的钱去买回长债，很多人都说他是在变相的印钞救美股，其实他真正要救的不是美股，是美债，因为长端利率太高，美国政府就非常难受，债务越大利息越贵，利息越贵就得借更多钱。借的越多，市场又要求更高的利率，这才是美国真正的危险循环。美国国会预算办公室说，如果再这样下去到2055年，债务要飙到150万亿，注意这是官方数据，贝森特回购国债就是想把这颗雷往后拖一拖，暂时降低长端融资成本，但是几十亿美元回购根本解决不了40万亿美元的债务，他能压住收益率一两天。却压不住财政赤字和巨额发债。这一次美债短期获救，长期问题反而暴露的更明显，接下来如果美债收益率能稳住，AI牛市还AI,美债如果再失控，最先挨打的就是高估值科技股！Over 300 million $SPCX shares unlock tomorrow, and I am directly bearish. 📉
The previous 900 million unlock rallied because price was below IPO, driving a squeeze.
This time is different with price back above IPO value.
Employee shares are unlocking, and they will likely sell rather than coordinate.
Long term I remain optimistic on $SPCX, but it is time to short.🚨 $BTC hits $70K, $ETH nears $2,266! But don’t get excited just yet. 👀
Is this rally really driven by new capital?
At present, short covering might be one of the main drivers. The U.S. Treasury eases long-term bond pressure, 30-year Treasury yields fall, and over $1.4 billion in shorts have been liquidated.📈💥
But on the other hand, caution is warranted:
⚠️ Limited change in real yields
⚠️ Fed meeting minutes remain hawkish
⚠️ U.S. debt exceeding $40 trillion still persists
So the question is simple:
Without sustained spot buying, could the $70K breakout just be a brief short squeeze?
I’ll be watching for a pullback first, rather than chasing the rally.
Stay cautious. NFA. 🧐
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