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Tomorrow, $SPCX will officially unlock more than 300 million shares, and my direct view is that the downtrend will dominate in the short term. Looking back at the previous unlock, when more than 900 million shares were released, the price not only did not drop but also surged strongly. The main reason I believe is that at that time the stock price was too low, even breaking below the IPO issue price, making the holding institutions reluctant to sell off. Combined with the fact that the entire market at that time was bearish, the capital flow followed the trend The Ministry of Finance raising the upper limit for long-term government bond repos signals localized easing, but the divergence in performance between existing U.S. stock sectors and the crypto market reflects ongoing disagreements within the system about the pace of incremental liquidity injection.
The ultra-long end of U.S. Treasury yields has been pressured downward, with the 30-year yield falling nearly 10 basis points at one point. However, there was no significant buying rebound in the U.S. stock storage and optical module sectors; instead, Bitcoin quickly surged from the $64,000 level to $70,000, indicating that spot and derivatives funds are prioritizing pricing in assets more sensitive to liquidity.
The factors driving capital flow are ranked as follows: expectations of declining long-term nominal interest rates, efficiency of short-term liquidity replenishment, and the sticky risk of macro inflation. The Ministry of Finance raised the repo limit for 10- to 30-year government bonds from $2 billion to $4 billion between September 9 and November 4, directly easing supply pressure on the ultra-long end and prompting funds to absorb premiums ahead of time.
The bullish scenario triggers if the interest rate suppression effect from repos transmits from the ultra-long end to the mid- and short-term ends, and the $70,000 spot buying remains solid after turnover. It is necessary to observe whether Bitcoin can maintain net capital inflows above $70,000; if spot capital accumulation expands and U.S. stock sectors stop falling, liquidity improvement will spread to a broader range of risk assets.
The bearish scenario triggers if persistent inflation causes the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, leading to a secondary rebound in long-term yields that offsets the repo benefits. If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield returns to previous highs and financing conditions tighten again, Bitcoin falling below $64,000 will confirm this round of liquidity premium retraction.
If crypto spot fails to follow with sufficient funds and retests $64,000, or if the U.S. tech sector accelerates sell-offs draining existing funds, the easing expectations brought by the Ministry of Finance’s actions will be invalidated.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield can maintain its downward channel and the state of spot Bitcoin holdings near the $70,000 level.
#迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元Brothers, the market has directly accelerated to 72000, and many people have been completely overwhelmed by this short squeeze rally. Review of the underlying logic: The FOMC minutes at midnight were slightly hawkish, but US Treasury repo suppressed yields and the dollar weakened, combined with regulatory optimism, triggering a large-scale short squeeze liquidation, resulting in a rapid emotion-driven surge. Currently, the biggest issue in the market is no longer direction but severe short-term overbought conditions. The fear and greed index has entered the greed zone, with a large amount of sidelined funds frantically chasing the rally. The faster the price rises, the greater the risk of a nighttime plunge and washout. Do not shout that the bull market has restarted just because of one big bullish candle. This round is a short squeeze plus emotional rebound; the Fed's hawkish tone has not changed, and geopolitical risks still loom overhead. BTC: Support at 70500, resistance at 73200. 72000 is currently a battleground between bulls and bears; only a strong volume close above 73200 will open further upside for bulls; if the rally falters, 70500 is the first strong support at night, and breaking below it will lead to a significant profit-taking pullback. ETH: Support at 2230, resistance at 2360, this round shows strong elasticity, altcoins broadly rising driving market heat, with high-level selling pressure gradually accumulating. SOL: Support at 87, resistance at 93, volatility sharply increased, chasing risk is maxed out. 🔥 Nighttime practical advice: 1. The market has surged violently in succession; absolutely avoid chasing highs now, as chasing highs is gambling on a tail-end rally with poor risk-reward. 2. The strategy is to wait for a pullback to support and stabilize for a low entry; only after a volume breakout and close above 73200 can you lightly follow the trend. 3, Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, rising over 11% in 24 hours, with nearly 180,000 liquidations. This is not a story of value recovery, but a textbook-level "short squeeze" performance.
Half a year of consolidation has accumulated overly crowded short positions. When the price unexpectedly rises, shorts are forced to close and cover, creating a chain reaction of buying that pushes the price even higher. On the macro level, the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases has suppressed yields and the dollar, adding fuel to risk assets; Trump's meeting with crypto industry executives also strengthened expectations of regulatory friendliness.
But don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. $68,500 is the cost baseline for short-term holders; if it is not effectively broken, most remain at a loss—the current rise is more of a passive cover to "lose less" rather than an active build-up based on "optimism for the future." The more critical hidden risk is that Coinbase's premium remains negative, indicating that spot buying from U.S. institutions has not substantially recovered. A rebound without smart money taking over is ultimately hanging in midair.
What we see now is a passive buying frenzy, like a sharp breath in a bear market. The market is punishing shorts but not necessarily rewarding longs. Above $72,000, every breath carries the tension of leverage. The wind is blowing, but the foundation is still shaking.
Looking further ahead—on this chain, the true believers are still waiting for lower prices. 1. Overall Position Overview: There are a total of 7 short grid strategies.
✅ Historical strategies have ended and exited 2 orders: LIT, HYPE. Due to excessive position lock-up, those that can break even have been exited first.
⚠️ Currently running with 5 locked orders: PUMP (two grid orders), BZ, LIT, BOME. The market has broken through the grid range upwards, causing a large number of pending orders to be locked.
Unified handling principle: no replenishment, no adding positions, no manual order cutting or closing; all pending orders remain on the market as is, no additional funds will be added, leaving it to the market to operate automatically. If orders get filled again, arbitrage profits will be taken; if not, losses will be accepted.
2. $LIT 10x Leverage Short Grid [Signal Triggered Stop | Exited]
Total invested 55U, total profit +1.1U, grid range 2.2-4.4, arbitrage executed 48 times.
During holding, the market reversed and surged, maximum floating loss -7.60%. Many pending orders inside the range were not fully executed, resulting in locked chips accumulating. The bulls' counterattack exceeded expectations.
Although the grid could still arbitrage, the risk continued to increase. Without adding positions to lower cost, the strategy was directly terminated with a small profit exit, avoiding betting on a market pullback.
3. $HYPE 50x Leverage Short Grid [Manually Stopped | Exited]
Total invested 19.8U, total profit +0.92U, grid range 70-110, arbitrage executed only 3 times.
50x high leverage has extremely low tolerance for errors; the market quickly surged, and the vast majority of grid pending orders were not executed. If it continued running and the price kept rising, floating losses would be multiplied by leverage.ETH pulled from $1,917 to $2,334 last night, up +21.7% intraday, currently around $2,281. $ETH $SNDK #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
Four forces combined:
① U.S. Treasury long-term bond repo single limit raised from $2B to at least $4B, long bond yields and USD retreat;
② Trump urges Congress to pass the CLARITY Act;
③ On August 19, spot ETH ETF net inflow was $186.8M, with ETHA accounting for $122.1M;
④ ETH 24h liquidations about $1.13B, shorts about $1.02B.
BTC rose +11.6% in the same period, ETH nearly +19%. Macro, policy, and ETF sparked first, short squeeze accelerated. Whether $2,200 can hold will determine how much short squeeze premium remains.A +12% Bitcoin rally does NOT automatically mean the bear market is over.
History shows how violent bear-market relief rallies can be:
• April 2018: +17% → then another -60% • February 2022: +10.5% → then another -63% • June–July 2022: +40% → then another -37%
The key lesson: a strong bounce can still be a bear-market trap.
Don’t confuse momentum with a confirmed trend reversal.#BTCBreaks72K #FOMC9To3Split #PopMartEarningsWatch This $ETH long at 1909 with 100x leverage is now at 2280, floating profit 1940%. The numbers are explosive, but I know myself, this is not about being "bullish," it's about the position + momentum + mainstream coin depth aligning perfectly. Around 1900 it stayed sideways for so long, volume was suppressed, price didn't break the lower boundary, so I was betting on a capital inflow back into mainstream, not on news.
After pulling up to 2342, it retraced a bit to 2280, which is normal. You can't treat 100x like altcoin mentality; ETH volatility isn't like OPN/DOS with crazy spikes, but with full leverage, even one correction can wash people out. Now it looks like support is around 2240-2250, with resistance at 2300-2342; only after breaking that will I look toward 2400. If it falls below 2200, I'll be worried; breaking 2150/2100 means it's no longer a "pullback," but a change in this capital rhythm.
This mainstream coin wave is capital withdrawing from chaotic new coins/altcoins and reallocating into deep liquidity places like BTC/ETH. ETH pulling up so straight indicates it's not retail small orders, but positions and perpetual funds pushing together. But the straighter it goes, the more you have to guard against pullbacks after Funding/liquidations. I won't add; I'll let profits and safety distance speak first.
Going forward, the key is whether it can hold sideways at the high, not keep pumping crazily. If it holds sideways, the bullish structure remains; if volume spikes and it crashes below 2200, then I'll exit first. The market has opportunities every day; don't let the yield of one trade throw off your rhythm. $BTC $SNDK The short-term overheating signal for BTC is within a controllable range; the issue lies more in psychological capitulation than position optimization. Shouldn't we separate the expectations already reflected by the price movement from the variables not yet accounted for? - The original text shows a trader maintaining a mid-to-long-term BTC position but withdrawing it after 5 days. Volatility in semiconductor stocks like SanDisk and SK Hynix is also mentioned. - The key point is that the process of short-term leverage being liquidated or reduced occurred simultaneously with BTC price adjustments from a capital behavior perspective. - This suggests that the risk appetite reduction was not limited to specific stocks but proceeded in a way that reduced both digital asset and stock positions together. - If funding rates normalized and basis narrowed during the position liquidation process, this could be interpreted as a prelude to leverage reaccumulation. Semiconductor exposure was the trigger for this correction, but structurally in the market, derivative position liquidations had a greater impact. The trader's mention of a $100,000 daily reward reflects the intensity of short-term volatility Jeonbuk Bank's integration with Ripple shouldn't be hastily equated with a direct benefit to XRP
This might be disappointing, but it's important
Ripple Payments entering regional banks in South Korea indeed indicates that traditional finance is beginning to accept on-chain settlement infrastructure. Cross-border remittances shortening from several days to seconds or minutes is very attractive to SMEs, exporters, and content creators. However, current public information does not confirm that this service necessarily uses XRP or RLUSD
I think this kind of news should be viewed on two levels
The first level is a business positive for Ripple, showing it continues to gain clients on the banking side. The second level concerns token value capture, questioning whether payment network growth can truly translate into XRP demand, liquidity usage, and settlement asset status
Project narrative and token value are not inherently equivalent
But if banks become increasingly willing to use Ripple's rails, XRP at least re-enters the "possibly used" discussion table
#韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 If the explosive surge at 4:50 AM was just a bull trap, then those chasing now might have just caught the chips handed over by others? Last night, watching ETH climb steadily from 2100, I once thought this level was already a high point, but looking again today, it has instead become a short-term low. Honestly, this kind of market easily creates an illusion—that as long as you dare to get on board, it’s never too late. But what really concerns me is not the price itself, but the trajectory of risk appetite changes. - This big bullish candle on Ethereum superficially represents a release of bullish sentiment, but deeper down it actually reflects capital re-pricing the "safety premium." When mainstream coins start to strengthen proactively, it often means capital is shifting from a defensive stance to an offensive one, willing to pay for higher volatility. - The "blond president" of Bitcoin’s call essentially provides the entire market with an implicit policy floor. Once this expectation forms, it changes the holding cycle of capital—from short-term speculation to mid-term positioning. - The small position of BEAT I hold is still at a floating loss, but interestingly, it hasn’t been drained by ETH’s strength, indicating that the diffusion of this rally is better than expected, at least it’s not a one-hit wonder. The bullish path is very clear: if ETH can hold the current range and continue to increase volume, then the catch-up rally of altcoins will most likely be delayed but not absent, especially for those small-cap projects with real use cases, which may gain even more exaggerated elasticity than mainstream coins. But risks are also hidden in the details: - This surge happened in Asia Let's talk about this HYPE market movement
Recently, HYPE has been really strong, leaving BTC, ETH, and SOL far behind. This is no longer just emotional speculation; the signals from the market clearly show institutional funds are buying with real money.
Why is it rising? Three lines stacked together
First, there is real cash buyback support. Hyperliquid uses 97% of the platform's revenue to buy back and burn HYPE tokens, and later this will increase to 99%. The perpetual DEX trading volume remains high, and the platform generates real fees daily, all of which flow back into the secondary market to support the token price. Simply put, the larger the trading volume, the more the platform earns, the stronger the buyback, the scarcer the circulating supply, and the more stable the price. This model is completely different from those public chains that rely purely on narratives; here, you can see the cash flow.
Second, institutions are continuously increasing their positions. Top-tier institutions like Multicoin Capital have been buying all year, with cumulative holdings exceeding hundreds of millions of dollars. These are not old positions just sitting idle; they are continuously adding new buys. After large funds lock their tokens, the circulating supply on the market shrinks, so even a small buy order can push the price up. Therefore, this rally doesn't require huge volume to reach new highs.
Third, and the most direct short-term catalyst — substantial progress in U.S. regulatory compliance. The White House is clearly advancing Hyperliquid's entry into the U.S. compliance system, effectively opening the door to the U.S. market. For the DEX sector, the U.S. market means a channel for incremental funds in the hundreds of billions. The market directly prices in expectations for doubled users, trading volume, fees, and buyback scale, leading to concentrated capital accumulation and a pulse-like surge that breaks previous highs.
The market performance is indeed strong, but some signals are starting to emerge
Looking at August data, BTC rose about 4% monthly, SOL about 6%, most major coins are still recovering, while HYPE surged 14%, a very noticeable gap. The three major technical features are also typical: it consolidates without falling during market pullbacks, keeps hitting new highs with a rising base, and breaks out on low volume resistance with volume expansion, showing very tight token lock-up.
However, on-chain data shows some subtle changes — some whale funds are starting to set up short positions at new highs. This is not a bearish view on fundamentals but a technical pullback demand due to short-term overheating and excessive gains. After the compliance benefits land, short-term sentiment is fully charged; new catalysts will be needed to continue the rally, otherwise, high-level consolidation and digestion of floating supply is highly likely.
What to expect next
There is no signal that the big trend is over. The three core logics — fee buybacks, institutional holdings, and compliance-driven inflows — remain intact, and the long-term main uptrend structure is unbroken. In the short term, after continuous surges, a rotation is needed. Most likely, the market will shift from a one-sided rally to high-level consolidation, sideways accumulation, and washing out floating supply before the next leg up. There won't be any more reckless runs; more volatility with spikes up and down will occur.
In terms of trading, long-term holders can keep their positions; pullbacks are opportunities. Short-term traders should avoid chasing highs and wait for a stable pullback before buying. For a coin with such a clear trend, shorting is low in cost-effectiveness and prone to violent stop losses.
In summary
This HYPE rally is driven by a combination of business model, heavy institutional positions, policy benefits, and deflationary mechanisms — not a pump-and-dump. It is one of the few assets in the market currently running an independent bull market separate from the overall market. Short-term sentiment is overheated and needs digestion, but the mid-term logic remains solid.
$HYPE Looking at the four-year cycle, the bear market should end in October, but considering the strength of this rebound, is it a bull market or a trap? Reviewing the retracement levels of previous bear markets for Bitcoin: -94%, -81%, -77%, while this year's 57,000 level is only down -54%. From both time and price perspectives, it hasn't reached the bottom yet. Should I start buying now or wait until October? 🤨 Afraid of missing out if I don't buy, afraid it's not the bottom if I do buy $BTC $SOL Title: $BTC just ripped past 72k. This squeeze is no joke.
Guys, $BTC went from 64k to 72k in like 36 hours. That's almost 8,000 dollars straight up. I honestly didn't see it coming this fast.
Why the pump? Three things hit at once:
1. US Treasury announced they're doubling buyback sizes on long-term bonds starting Sept 9. Yields dropped, USD weakened, and liquidity expectations flipped overnight.
2. SEC proposed a safe harbor framework for crypto projects, plus Trump hosted a crypto summit at the White House pushing for CLARITY Act progress. Regulatory tailwinds are finally showing up.
3. And the real kicker – shorts got absolutely rekt. BTC was stuck at 64k for so long that leverage piled up heavily on the short side. Once price broke through key liquidation levels, it turned into a massive short squeeze. Over $1.3 billion in liquidations, with shorts accounting for 90%+. That forced buying fed the fire even more.
That said, a few red flags:
· Coinbase premium is still negative – US spot demand isn't really here yet. This is leverage-driven, not organic spot buying.
· RSI on 1H and 4H is above 85 – heavily overbought. Sharp rallies like this usually need a pullback to digest.
· Glassnode data still shows "capitulation phase" signals. Until realized P/L breaks above 2, any rally could just be local relief.
My plan now:
I'm not chasing this pump. Waiting for a clean retest – if BTC holds 68k-69k on pullback and volume dries up, I might consider a small long. If it consolidates above 72k with strength, I'll look for entries later. Stop-loss is a must – if 68k breaks, I'm out.
What about you guys? Did you catch this move or get caught on the wrong side? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ White House Crypto Summit Sparks Market Rally! Trump Sends Major Signal, Bull Market Narrative Rekindled
The White House crypto closed-door meeting concluded, instantly igniting sentiment across the crypto community. Note a key point: Trump did not directly tell the general public to "buy cryptocurrency," but the policy signals released were interpreted by the market as very strong positive narratives.
This meeting gathered top executives from industry leaders like Coinbase, Ripple, Chainlink, as well as regulatory officials from the SEC and CFTC.
The core statements included two points:
First, urging Congress to accelerate the passage of the CLARITY Act, aiming to provide the US crypto industry with clear regulatory rules and make the US a global digital asset hub.
Second, expressing willingness to consider related suggestions and not ruling out the US government continuing to purchase Bitcoin to build a national Bitcoin reserve.
Once the news broke, the market reacted immediately. BTC violently surged past the 70,000 mark, ETH rose sharply in tandem, a large number of short positions were liquidated, funds flooded into major coins, and the market widely spread the interpretation that "the president is telling you to buy coins."
However, there is a significant expectation gap here.
He only supports industry development at the policy level and discussed whether the government would allocate BTC; he did not publicly call on ordinary people to enter the market and buy. Many social media outlets exaggerated and reinterpreted the news.
The bill is still stuck in the Senate, and whether it will pass smoothly remains uncertain. The short-term rise is more driven by sentiment and short squeezes, not because the bill has been enacted.
$BTC BTC directly surged to 70,000 today.
But I just finished looking at the liquidation data, and I think there's one thing that can't be ignored.
This rally isn't just everyone suddenly going crazy buying BTC.
After many short positions got liquidated, the system also has to buy back to close those positions.
That's why the candlesticks are accelerating.
If someone sees a big bullish candle these past two days and can't help but chase, I think at least they should understand the "short squeeze" first.
The rise is real.
But why it’s rising makes a big difference.
$BTCBitcoin suddenly surged, and Trump gave it another push behind the scenes
This time BTC suddenly shot up from over 60,000 all the way back to 70,000 dollars, and Trump indeed added fuel to the fire.
On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives directly at the White House and publicly urged Congress to expedite the CLARITY Act. The US's attitude toward embracing cryptocurrency has become very clear.
However, the real ignition came from the US Treasury expanding long-term Treasury bond repurchases. After Treasury yields dropped, market liquidity expectations changed instantly.
Coupled with BTC breaking through, short positions continuously liquidating, and ETF funds flowing back in, several positive factors appeared simultaneously, directly pushing BTC back to 70,000 dollars.
So this surge is not simply Trump calling for a rise, but a resonance of policy, liquidity, capital, and short squeeze together.
If Trump continues to push crypto regulatory bills and 70,000 dollars can hold steady, I think this round of the market can indeed start to be viewed with a longer-term perspective. $BTC [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh slammed the table: This surge to 72000 is an epic short squeeze brewed from "policy + liquidity injection + short squeeze" — three strong liquors mixed together!
Trump invited crypto bigwigs for coffee, then the SEC immediately presented the "safe harbor" draft, and the Treasury Department conveniently pushed down US Treasury yields — all three events exploded on the same day, leaving shorts dumbfounded. 180,000 liquidations, $3.2 billion vanished into thin air. This isn’t a pump; it’s a collective funeral for shorts!
But Pharaoh has to pour cold water: The craziest rallies often lack follow-through buyers. This wave’s main force is market buy orders from liquidated shorts, not retail investors snapping up with real money. Now RSI is at 90, hotter than Chongqing hotpot; chasing now is likely to become "human fuel".
Next, watch 71000 closely. If it can hold steadily and confirm on a pullback, then we can consider 75000; if it crashes back below 68000, this is just a violent rebound, and those chasing highs will be on guard.
The crazier the market, the more you need to control your hands. Waiting for a pullback to get in is a hundred times safer than blindly chasing highs — Pharaoh says it, believe it or not! $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ Pop Mart — Revenue Soars 23.8%, But Profit is Slacking Off
First half revenue 17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-on-year; net profit 5.04 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year. Revenue is running a marathon, profit is taking a stroll.
China market +47.3% takes off directly, but Asia-Pacific -9.7%, Americas -16.5% — Overseas expansion? No, overseas is retreating.
LABUBU revenue declined 7.5%, the former top star is fading, Star People grew 6 times to take over, but the question is — how long can Star People stay hot?
Profit margin declined, inventory turnover slowed down, translated into plain language — selling more, earning less, and holding more stock.
You say break 10? Brother, Pop Mart’s stock price is no longer about 10 yuan. At this "revenue growth without profit growth" pace, what breaks is valuation faith, not the stock price. Multiple IPs can take turns, but don’t let it become "multiple IPs all dragging down together."
Disclaimer: LABUBU is very cute, but cuteness can’t be used as PE. The financial report looks good, the stock price looks even better, don’t chase highs and end up as chives in a box.
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ 📊 $SKHYNIX Contract Liquidation Express (August 20)
Short-term bears dominate, mid-to-long-term bulls and bears tug-of-war, 24-hour direction reversal...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $1,295.35 $0 $1,295.35
4 hours $54,000 $4,212.87 $49,700
12 hours $1,155,300 $541,600 $613,600
24 hours $5,005,200 $2,900,200 $2,105,000
From SKHYNIX liquidation data: the 1-hour short positions monopolize the market, long liquidations are zero, volume at $13,000, a tentative short squeeze attempt; 4-hour direction confirmed, short liquidations are 11.8 times that of longs, volume jumps to $49,700, shorts strongly control the market, confirming a short squeeze scenario; 12-hour shorts continue but advantage sharply narrows, shorts are only 1.13 times longs, volume surges to $613,600, shorts still dominant but near equilibrium, intense bull-bear battle begins; 24-hour direction completely reverses, long liquidations crush shorts, longs are 1.38 times shorts, total liquidations exceed $5 million. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for only 23.1% of the 24-hour total, concentration is very low, main liquidation force is in the latter half of 24 hours—new liquidations in the last 12 hours reach $3.85 million, extremely fierce bull-bear contest. The short dominance ratio drops from 11.8 times at 4 hours to 1.13 times at 12 hours, then reverses to bulls at 24 hours, completing a full cycle from extreme skew to equilibrium to reversal within 24 hours. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, favor long positions with less trading to avoid being harvested from both sides.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 20
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: liquidity valves loosening, the market is recalibrating coordinates for a new round of risk pricing—crypto short squeeze, Fed internal division, consumer IP iteration, three forces resonating in the same time window.
₿ BTC Breaks $72,000: Epic Short Squeeze, $3.3 Billion Liquidated
On August 20, Bitcoin violently surged past $72,000, up over 11% in 24 hours; Ethereum rose over 19%, SOL over 13%.
Three direct triggers: U.S. Treasury announced raising the single purchase limit for long-term Treasury buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion; the White House again pushed forward the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY); after prices quickly passed $66,000 and $68,000, shorts were systemically liquidated.
Liquidation data is brutal—188,000 people liquidated globally, totaling $3.34 billion, shorts accounting for $3 billion. Over $1 billion in Bitcoin short positions were forcibly closed within about an hour, marking the first time in Bitcoin history that single-day short liquidation exceeded $1 billion.
One big bullish candle breaks six weeks of sideways trading. The direction is clear, but whether it can hold after the short squeeze is the real test.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: 9-3 to Maintain Rates, But Hawks Are More Than Three
The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 20 show the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Dallas Fed's Logan, Cleveland Fed's Harker, and Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari all advocated a 25 basis point hike.
More importantly, the minutes reveal that the hawkish forces supporting a rate hike far exceed the three formal dissenters—several participants leaned toward a 25 basis point hike; two regional Fed presidents without voting rights in July later stated they would have supported a hike if they had voting rights.
The Fed's most divided meeting in a decade. The more hawkish the minutes, the higher the market rises—because the market prices not "who voted no," but the fact that "liquidity is loosening."
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Slows, Starry People Take Over
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit 5.16 billion yuan, up 9.5%; gross margin 69.7%.
The IP landscape is undergoing drastic restructuring. THE MONSTERS series featuring LABUBU generated 4.45 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, but remains the top IP; new IP "Starry People" revenue surged 580.6% to 2.65 billion yuan, becoming the second largest IP. Six IPs generated over 1 billion yuan each, 11 IPs earned over 100 million yuan.
LABUBU slows down, Starry People take the baton—Pop Mart's IP lifecycle management is facing its toughest test. Deutsche Bank previously warned of IP cycle peak risks; whether Starry People can sustain the next growth wave remains the biggest question.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin declares the end of sideways trading with $3.3 billion liquidations—after six weeks of silence, direction chosen in the most violent way; SKHYNIX contract market completes a full switch from extreme skew to reversal within 24 hours, total liquidations exceed $5 million, frequent direction changes make position management more important than directional judgment; the more hawkish the Fed minutes, the higher the market rises, because liquidity valves are loosening; Pop Mart's IP landscape restructuring, LABUBU and Starry People's baton passing reflects generational replacement in the consumer market. When crypto short squeeze, policy divergence, and consumer iteration resonate in the same time window—the August 2026 market is completing a new round of pricing power handover in the most intense way. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
Right now, all the rebounds in the crypto space are bets on the sentiment from the Jackson Hole meeting.
The current market has no confidence for an independent rally; the recovery in BTC and altcoins entirely depends on what Powell says.
If he leans dovish and yields fall, the rebound can continue; but if he reaffirms maintaining high interest rates for the long term, all the recent excitement will instantly collapse.
This is no longer about technical trading; it’s purely a macro sentiment gamble.$BTC
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元
1. News Analysis
1) Four core positive factors supporting the market and making deep downside unlikely
1. US Treasury expands bond repurchase, macro liquidity constraints fully loosened (the most fundamental driving force)
The US announced that starting September 9, the single repurchase limit for 10-30 year Treasury bonds will double to $4 billion, directly pushing down long-term bond yields and weakening the US dollar index. Bitcoin is a non-interest-bearing asset; as Treasury yields fall, global funds flee the bond market and flow massively back into crypto and US stock risk assets. As long as Treasury yields do not rebound, the base of this rally will not collapse, and dips will be supported by spot funds.
2. Spot ETFs see largest single-day net inflow in three months, institutions backing with real money
On August 19, US BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $517 million, with BlackRock's IBIT taking $285 million, and Fidelity and Ark also making large additions, ending previous intermittent redemptions. Institutional strategy shifted to buying on dips in batches, avoiding cliff-like sell-offs, significantly raising the support baseline for this wave.
3. US regulatory expectations broadly easing, policy panic greatly dissipated
Trump met with top crypto executives at the White House, expressing discussions about the US holding Bitcoin reserves and urging Congress to accelerate the CLARITY Act; meanwhile, the SEC introduced new exemptions for small token financings, no longer indiscriminately cracking down on crypto projects. Institutional concerns lifted, long-term capital returned, no longer just short-term arbitrage.
4. Historic large-scale short liquidations completed a short squeeze rally
After breaking key resistances at 66600 and 70000, nearly $2.7 billion in shorts were liquidated within 24 hours, the largest closeout wave since 2021. Shorts were forced to buy back BTC, snowballing the price above 72000. Major short positions have been mostly cleared, sharply reducing short-term selling pressure.
2) Key negative factors causing slight price pullback and locking in continued frenzy
1. Short-term surge too large, indicators severely overbought, short-term profit-taking concentrated
In just 3 trading days, price surged from around 64000 to 72200, an increase of over $8000, with daily RSI entering severe overbought territory. After hitting the 73000 resistance zone, short-term bulls who entered low took profits en masse, slowing buying and increasing selling pressure, naturally pulling back to 71800.
2. Positive factors fully priced in, no new major catalysts
Treasury repurchase, regulatory easing, and ETF inflows—all three major positives have been realized, with no new sudden macro catalysts. This rally was driven by expectations and short covering; now that expectations are digested, there is a lack of fresh long-term capital at high levels, and the internal momentum for further rise is clearly weakening.
3. Fed hides hawkish bottom line, economic data may rewrite rate cut expectations anytime
Fed minutes clearly state that if inflation data rebounds, rate hikes may resume. Upcoming US CPI and nonfarm payroll data, if they improve, will trigger Treasury yields to rebound, quickly cooling this easing expectation rally, representing the biggest mid-to-long-term hidden risk.
4. High-level leveraged longs clustered, pullbacks easily trigger minor long liquidations
The short squeeze attracted many retail investors to leverage long positions, rapidly increasing leverage on the board. Any slight price drop will cause some short-term leveraged longs to stop loss and exit, further suppressing rebound strength, making it difficult to quickly reach new highs again.
2. Market interpretation + key price level strength/weakness division
1. Intraday short-term strength/weakness lifeline: $71,000
Current price at 71800 is above this level; holding 71000 maintains a high-level consolidation intraday; if volume breaks below 71000, short-term bullish sentiment cools rapidly, immediately retesting the 70000 psychological level.
2. Strongest core support this wave: 70000 level
Previously a long-term strong resistance, after effective breakout it fully turned into a bullish defense lifeline. As long as 70000 is not effectively broken, this breakout rally structure remains intact; if 70000 is lost, this short squeeze rally phase ends.
3. Short-term first strong resistance: $7280 ~ $7350
Intraday previous highs plus historical dense chip lock-up zone; to restart a strong rebound and challenge new highs, volume must hold above 7350, otherwise every attempt will face selling pressure from profit-taking.
4. Mid-to-long-term resistance: $75000
Requires sustained Treasury weakness and continuous large ETF inflows for multiple days to resonate; unlikely to be reached in the short term.
Market summary
Daily chart has completely broken out of the previous months-long 62600-65000 consolidation box, mid-term trend shifted from sideways to bullish; however, hourly volume continues to shrink, entering profit-taking and indicator repair phase after the surge.
Current market logic: no risk of market collapse, but unlikely to see another single-sided large rise soon, entering a high-level range-bound grinding phase.
Short-term trading range: 70000 — 73500
3. Three most probable subsequent scenarios
1. Highest probability: oscillate and grind within 70000~73500 range
Treasuries remain stable with no major economic data shocks, BTC repeatedly tug-of-war within the range, slowly digesting profits from this surge and repairing overbought indicators. Along with slight fluctuations in Nasdaq and Treasury yields, unlikely to see a single-sided big rise or fall.
2. Re-challenge 7350 and test 7500
Must meet two hard conditions simultaneously:
① Treasury yields continue to fall, USD remains weak, US inflation data shows no warming bearish signals;
② BTC spot ETFs maintain net inflows, global market risk appetite does not cool;
Only by holding above 7350 is there a chance to test 7500 resistance; lacking either condition, rallies are mostly false breakouts.
3. Begin a deep pullback to repair this wave's gains
Treasury yields rebound, US tech stocks collectively fall, BTC breaks below 71000 short-term lifeline with volume, further probing 70000 key support; if 70000 is lost, price will retest the previous breakout platform at 66600~68000, concentrating on digesting this surge. $ETH Breaking News! Ethereum Spot ETF sees a single-day net inflow of $189.15 million, marking the largest single-day purchase volume in nearly 10 months
According to SoSoValue data on the US stock trading day of August 19, the total net inflow of US Ethereum spot ETFs reached $189.15 million, setting the highest single-day capital inflow record in nearly 10 months, while achieving three consecutive trading days of net inflows, with institutional funds massively returning to Ethereum.
Capital Structure Breakdown
- BlackRock $ETHA became the absolute main force, with a single-day net inflow of $122.1 million, accounting for over 60% of the total inflow. The product's historical cumulative net inflow has reached $11.846 billion.
- Fidelity $FETH followed closely with a net inflow of $36.54 million; Grayscale Mini-ETH net inflow was $16.04 million. Multiple products simultaneously recorded positive inflows, indicating this is not a single fund pulse event.
- The current total scale of Ethereum spot ETFs has reached $12.063 billion, accounting for 4.51% of ETH's total market capitalization, with a historical cumulative total net inflow of $11.744 billion.
Interpretation of Signals Behind the Market
1. Institutional Attitudes Have Clearly Reversed
For a long time, Ethereum ETFs repeatedly experienced net outflows, causing market concerns about weak institutional willingness to allocate to ETH. However, the continuous large purchases over the past three days indicate Wall Street funds are increasing their Ethereum allocation weight again, which is an important underlying capital support for ETH's gains far exceeding BTC in this round.
2. Multiple Positive Factors Resonating to Drive Capital Inflows
Expectations of new US crypto regulations, a decline in US Treasury yields, BTC short squeeze boosting overall crypto market risk appetite, combined with ETH's own technical breakthroughs, multiple factors jointly drive institutional funds to buy aggressively.
3. Need to View Data Rationally
The massive single-day inflow is a strong sentiment signal but does not mean funds will maintain this level continuously. After the sharp rise, ETH is already severely overbought, accumulating substantial long-term floating profits. Once subsequent ETF flows turn from inflows to outflows, the market will face considerable correction pressure.
Risk Warning: ETF fund flows are for market reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; position sizes must be strictly controlled.
$ETH #BTC breaks $69,000, how far can this rally go? The days of earning USDC by posting are near; Platform X is in talks
The money earned from posting might directly go into a USDC wallet in the future, and Platform X is discussing this matter. An insider revealed to CoinDesk that X is negotiating to pay creators royalties for content uploads using stablecoins, with Circle's USDC as an example. If this deal goes through, the money you earn from posting content on X could be settled directly in USDC instead of going through traditional banking channels.
The insider also works on other social platforms and said those platforms are also testing paying commissions to influencers using stablecoins. In other words, it's not just X considering this; several mainstream social platforms are exploring the same path. Stablecoins are transitioning from on-chain tools to wallets on content platforms, just one step away.
The significance of this news lies in addressing a pain point. Previously, creators receiving cross-border payments had to go through banks, wait for wire transfers, and pay hefty fees. Settlements between content platforms and creators have long been constrained by traditional payment systems. The selling point of stablecoins like USDC is that they settle 24/7, with negligible fees, and are globally accepted without currency exchange. If social platforms truly switch their payment infrastructure to stablecoins, it means embedding crypto payments into the daily lives of hundreds of millions of users—a vision bigger than any on-chain data.
From a market perspective, this is a classic expectation-driven logic. No matter how much the stablecoin supply side story is told, nothing beats having a real use case on the demand side. The issuance volume of USDC and related payment concepts will likely see sentiment uplift. Regulators are also paving the way; U.S. lawmakers are advancing stablecoin-related legislation. The more payment scenarios emerge, the stronger the legislative momentum, creating a positive feedback loop. However, the insider clearly stated that talks are ongoing with no timeline for implementation, so this news is suitable for thematic tracking rather than fully loading expectations for heavy investment.
On the flip side, if X really settles in USDC, creators’ first reaction might not be happiness but concerns about tax calculations, price volatility, and how much purchasing power the USDC received today will retain tomorrow. Stablecoins stabilize price but not people's minds; recipients must handle exchange rate risks themselves.
What do you think? Is social platforms paying with stablecoins a blessing for creators or just another harvesting channel? If your platform did this one day, would you accept it or not? The entire screen is shouting bull market returning, but Binance's boss says we're still in a bear market
When the whole network was shouting that the bull market was coming, Binance's boss Zhao Changpeng directly poured cold water on this hype at the SALT conference. He said the Bitcoin super cycle has not yet materialized, the market still follows a relatively strict four-year cycle pattern, and at this stage, it is still a bear market.
You heard that right. On the very same day BTC broke through 72,000 and ETH rose 18% in a single day, CZ said on stage that it’s still a bear market. This statement contrasts so sharply with the widespread bull market talk that it makes one wonder if he’s not watching the market. But his reasoning is worth pondering. He said that as the market size grows larger and larger, price volatility will gradually narrow, meaning that even if there is a market rally in the future, it will be difficult to see the kind of tenfold increase in a year that happened before.
To translate his cycle theory: after the last peak, the market needs one year to fall, one year to build a bottom, and one year to recover. We are still in the second half of this cycle, and the real bull market will wait for the next halving effect to ferment. From this framework, the current rise from the low point is a recovery rather than a reversal. This is also echoed technically: the daily average cost line completed a death cross as early as October last year, and the large-scale trend has indeed not yet emerged. This surge looks more like a correction of oversold conditions.
What’s even more intriguing is his judgment on regulation. CZ said that currently is the friendliest regulatory environment he has seen in his 12 years in the industry. The US regulatory framework has a demonstrative effect globally, and Hong Kong is accelerating legislation aligned with the US approach. Saying on one hand that the market is still in a bear phase, and on the other that the regulatory environment is historically the friendliest, actually reveals what he truly values: he is betting on valuation recovery brought by long-term industry compliance, not short-term price rebounds.
He also casually revealed that about 70% of YZi Labs’ capital allocation is in crypto and blockchain core sectors, 20% in AI, and the rest in biotech and similar areas. This is using their own funds, focusing more on the positive impact of projects and team execution rather than purely financial returns. In plain terms, Binance’s money is still bet on the crypto ship, just without the hype.
For those of us doing swing trading, his viewpoint is actually a reference. If the four-year cycle still holds, the current position looks more like a recovery rally. You can follow the funds for short-term moves, but don’t treat your position as a perpetual motion machine—take profits when you should, and always be cautious with every peak and pullback. Conversely, if the super cycle really comes, then after a pullback there will still be new highs. The problem is, no one can prove which is right.
Do you believe in the four-year cycle or the super cycle? CZ said it’s a bear market—do you take that as cold water or as a contrarian indicator? BTC Breaks Through 72,000, Short Sellers Liquidated at a Two-Year High
Those watching the market last night probably didn’t sleep well. BTC surged from around 69,000 all the way up, breaking through 72,000 USD at 5:20 PM today, rising 11.8% in 24 hours. This is no small rebound; Coinglass data shows this is the largest short squeeze in the crypto market in nearly two years.
Let’s look at the numbers. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached 3.024 billion USD, with short liquidations at 2.77 billion and long liquidations only 252 million. A total of 171,000 people worldwide were swept up by the market. The largest single position was on Hyperliquid—a BTC short worth 48.8 million USD was completely wiped out. The 2.77 billion figure surpasses all previous single-day short liquidation records. Glassnode’s stats are even more dramatic, stating that the daily closing gain corresponds to 5.8 standard deviations, marking the largest upward volatility since October 2023. In plain terms, such a single-day surge has only happened once in three years.
Why such a sudden surge? Several factors combined. The US Treasury announced it would at least double its long-term bond repurchase scale to 4 billion USD each time, starting September 9, pushing down long-term yields and loosening risk assets collectively. At a White House crypto meeting, Trump said the US is considering buying a substantial amount of BTC and urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, specifically mentioning bringing Hyperliquid into compliance in the US, even claiming the US has completely ended its war on the crypto industry. HYPE surged over 20% following this, and the White House meeting effectively ignited market sentiment. Capital flows were also active: BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows for three consecutive days, with 517 million USD flowing in yesterday alone, and ETH spot ETFs also gained 189 million. ETH was even more aggressive, rising over 18% in 24 hours, leaving many waiting for a pullback to buy completely stunned.
But don’t just watch the excitement. On-chain data is also warning of risks. Short-term holders sent 44,000 BTC to exchanges yesterday to take profits, setting a single-day record for the year. These holders bought around 67,100 USD, sitting on significant unrealized gains, which could quickly turn into selling pressure. After liquidating 2.77 billion in shorts, the opposing side of the market has thinned, so volatility is likely to increase.
Pay attention to the contract side as well. After the short squeeze, funding rates flipped from negative to positive, meaning longs now have to pay shorts, raising the cost of chasing longs—a short-term warning sign. Open interest remains high, indicating leveraged funds haven’t exited, so the long-short battle will only intensify.
This kind of market is most dangerous for chasing at the peak. It’s normal for prices to break integer levels and then pull back for confirmation. Short-term traders should watch if volume remains during pullbacks and avoid catching the last wave when sentiment is hottest. The long-term view is simpler: continuous net inflows into ETFs show institutions are buying with real money, so holding is better than frequent trading as long as the trend remains intact.
At the 72,000 level, will shorts dare to return? Is this a trend reversal or just a one-night news-driven spike? Share your thoughts in the comments.A whale who held on through half a year of unrealized losses of 80 million finally freed from losses overnight
The whale who started building his position back in February can finally breathe a sigh of relief today. He held onto 120,000 ETH without selling a single coin, enduring nearly half a year, at one point facing an unrealized loss of $88.5 million. Just before this week's rebound, his liquidation price was pushed down to $1,195, just a breath away from liquidation. His average entry price was $2,261, spread across four addresses. Over these six months, he wasn’t without panic; he added margin several times, gradually pushing his liquidation price down from the danger zone.
The most absurd part of this story isn’t that he held on, but that he still hasn’t truly broken even. On the surface, with ETH bouncing back near his cost line, his long position worth over $200 million is almost fully out of the red, now only showing a little over $100,000 in unrealized losses. But if you factor in the nearly $4.9 million in cumulative funding fees he has paid since opening the position, his account is actually at a net loss. The price has recovered, but the money hasn’t fully returned—this gap remains stuck in the middle. Funding fees are an unavoidable, certain expense for leveraged longs; no matter how much the price rises, they won’t be erased.
This isn’t the first time he’s experienced such a rollercoaster. In January, the same address had already broken even once, then continued to add positions, accumulating ETH to the current 120,000 coins. Four addresses, spread across one chain, with 18x leverage, and the position structure hasn’t changed for half a year. Over these six months, he’s often been used as a cautionary example, but ironically, this stubborn holding strategy endured until the rebound. Compared to short-term traders who time the top precisely, he’s betting on the cycle itself.
Interestingly, on the very day he broke even, two other whales on-chain were simultaneously reducing their holdings. One sold over 5,000 ETH, another offloaded 550 BTC, pocketing a combined profit of over $6 million. One side held on to the end, the other took profits during the rebound—two ways of life playing out simultaneously in the market. Whether this rebound marks the start of a wave of break-even or a retreat path handed over by others, you can judge for yourselves. Others exit while he holds; others recover while he just breaks even.The person who shouted "bottom fishing" two months ago says the bear market is over.
Someone who was shouting to bottom fish two months ago spoke again yesterday, and this time with even more certainty.
Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted that Bitcoin's strong rebound breaking through $68,000 likely means the current crypto market down cycle has ended. This is not a spur-of-the-moment statement; as early as July, he repeatedly emphasized that July to August might be the last bottom-fishing window. Now that Bitcoin has surged to $72,000, he feels he has waited long enough.
But there is a layer of contradiction in what he said. On one hand, he declares the cycle is over and that the next step is to think about how to maximize profits in the new up cycle; on the other hand, he warns investors not to try to catch the absolute bottom at a specific price point, and especially not to short in the bottom range. In plain language: the bottom is probably behind us, but don’t rush in, and definitely don’t short. This kind of statement, both fearing you’ll miss out and fearing you’ll make a fatal mistake, reflects the true psychology of many who have missed the boat.
What’s even more interesting is the second half of his statement. Yi Lihua said the two most important things to focus on next are: how to operate in the new cycle, and how to participate in AI development opportunities at other times. A crypto VC singling out AI reflects the most tangible capital flow this year; AI computing power and stocks are competing with crypto for the same pool of risk capital, with Nvidia’s fundraising scale making the crypto space look somewhat small.
Rewinding to two months ago, when Bitcoin was still hovering just above $60,000, people in the group were posting losses every day. Under Yi Lihua’s post about the bottom-fishing window, half the people were cursing him for painting unrealistic hopes. Now that the price has risen above $72,000, the same group has dug up his words and treat them as prophecy. The market never lacks opinions; what it lacks is whether you still recognize your original judgment after the price moves.
Interestingly, he is not the only one recently talking about a cycle reversal. CZ has changed his tune to discuss a four-year cycle, F2Pool’s Wang Chun says the bear market is over, while Scaramucci still insists there is a clear bear market. The split opinions among big players actually show that no one really knows the answer right now.
This division is actually more realistic than uniformity. At a true bottom, not everyone nods in agreement. Hesitation, arguments, and mutual disagreement are evidence that the market is still searching for direction. When even the most pessimistic start to believe, that’s when you should really be cautious.
What’s truly worth pondering is: when a group of the most famous people simultaneously start shouting reversal, is this really a consensus on the bottom, or the start of another round of FOMO? The last time everyone was collectively optimistic, experienced players still remember how the market moved afterward.Bitcoin broke through 72,000; those who called for a crash last night have gone silent
Just after 7 PM tonight, Bitcoin's price stood above $72,000, with a 24-hour increase fixed at 11.8%. Just two days ago, the group chat was flooded with messages saying this rebound was over, and some confidently claimed that 70,000 was an insurmountable barrier. Now, not only has that barrier been crossed, it’s been trampled underfoot.
This surge came very suddenly. During the day, Bitcoin was hovering around 69,000, then overnight it jumped more than 3,000 points within a couple of hours, tearing through the 72,000 mark. Such a level of single-day increase wiped out many sell orders placed at lower levels in one go. The market looks lively, but the more a single bullish candle breaks through multiple resistance levels, the more you need to watch the underlying chip exchanges. From 65,000 to 72,000, this week has been like a roller coaster; at the start of the month, people were still worried about holding 60,000.
What’s interesting is the people. Not long ago, there were daily calls that the bear market wasn’t over and everyone should buckle up, but these days those voices have suddenly gone quiet. An analyst from CryptoQuant provided data showing Bitcoin’s market condition score has risen to just over 60, entering a strong bullish zone for the first time since late July. But he also warned that this rally can’t be blamed solely on short squeezes, because the score turned positive as early as last weekend, two days before the price really took off, indicating some funds had already positioned themselves in advance.
Market sentiment is conflicted. Those who have recovered their losses are starting to cash out, quietly increasing the coins held on exchanges. On the other hand, the behavior of withdrawing coins from exchanges to hold is also increasing, usually interpreted as a sign of unwillingness to sell and a desire to hold. Retail investors are taking profits on one side, while others quietly accumulate on the other; these two forces are battling around the 72,000 level.
Several factors are pulling simultaneously behind the scenes. The afterglow of the White House crypto meeting is still present, and the signals of easing have encouraged funds to enter. U.S. Treasury repo operations have doubled, and the weakening dollar has given risk assets some breathing room. Institutional money has also been flowing back recently; altcoins and meme coins have rebounded, and even long-dormant established projects have moved.
But I have to be honest. The sharper the rise, the more you need to think about why you’re here. An 11% gain in one day also means volatility is amplified by the same factor. Those chasing the price today might feel uncomfortable with a pullback tomorrow. Bitcoin reaching 72,000 could either mark the start of a new cycle or be a bull trap after washing out shorts; no one can give a definitive answer now. After all, a week ago people were still debating whether 60,000 was a solid bottom, and now some are already talking about 80,000.
What do you think? Will this rally hold, or will it retreat and consolidate for a while again? The old meme coins that had been silent for half a year suddenly revived collectively.
After Bitcoin surged past 70,000 this round, the Solana chain also started heating up. Yesterday afternoon, SOL reached $87, and within a day, a batch of old meme coins that were popular last year collectively bounced back, leaving many people stunned. The last time we saw them move together was at the end of last year's altcoin season.
BOME rose 46%, with its price returning to around $0.0011. USELESS went up 25%, PNUT increased by 20%, and TROLL and TRUMP both rose over 19%. Even old faces like MOODENG and WIF moved, with gains ranging from 10% to 20%. Calling them old faces is no exaggeration; most of these coins had dropped to just a fraction in the first half of the year. People chatting about memes in groups had long forgotten them, and even market apps barely pushed their updates.
Interestingly, the ones moving the most aren't new projects. BOME was among the earliest batch of meme coins issued on Solana, PNUT was hyped last year around Trump's election victory, and TRUMP needs no introduction. These coins carry memories; when the market warms up, funds rush first to these old tokens with stories, while new coins are less eye-catching. It's much easier to remember names than contract addresses, which is a natural advantage for old coins. Although their communities have quieted down, the numbers remain, and a single call can bring them back together.
Anyone who has watched the market for a while understands one truth: meme coins have little practical use but are extremely volatile. When the market improves slightly, funds prefer to gamble on high-beta assets, and old memes just happen to fit that role. They don't need new narratives; their names alone can bring people back, something new projects find hard to replicate. When prices rise, everyone talks about nostalgia; when they fall, no one recognizes them.
But thinking about it from another angle, it's quite painful. Those who cut losses and left at the bottom probably feel uneasy watching the charts now. People who cursed meme coins as trash half a year ago are now asking in groups if they can still get in—the rhythm has completely reversed. The worst feeling isn't missing out on profits but seeing the coin take off right after you sell. The market specializes in humbling all kinds of arrogance, especially those who leave just before a rise.
Whether this wave truly means people are coming back or is just an emotional pulse, no one can say for sure. The revival of old memes never means the market is stable; they rise sharply but also fall without warning. If you still hold last year's batch of meme coins, is this a break-even moment or have you already sold? If you've already cleared out, does this rebound concern you at all? Funds are always the most short-sighted, going wherever the action is.Gold quietly broke through $4500, most people haven't noticed yet
This afternoon, gold once stood above $4500 per ounce during intraday trading, with a single-day increase of over 3%, pushing the historical record even higher. Most people’s attention is still glued to the epic short squeeze in Bitcoin last night, leaving no time to watch the other side where the safe-haven asset has silently hit an all-time high. The last time the market quietly broke a record like this was several years ago. Compared to Bitcoin’s volatile swings of thousands of points, gold’s move has been steady and strong, more like someone is positioning in advance rather than chasing the rally.
On Bitget, the gold contract XAUT/USDT saw a trading volume just over $21.18 million in the past 24 hours, a 34% increase compared to before. This growth rate is not small, indicating real money is moving into gold. Usually, at times like this, either institutions are hedging some unseen risks in advance, or people’s patience with the US dollar’s credit is gradually wearing thin. The busier the market looks, the easier it is to overlook what’s happening in the corners.
Interestingly, there is a contrast. Last night, the crypto market just experienced its largest short squeeze day in nearly two years, with liquidations hitting $3 billion across the network, shorts getting wiped out brutally. Everyone was celebrating Bitcoin’s rebound and ETH returning to 2300, with sentiment jumping straight from fear to greed. Yet, during the same period, gold quietly broke a key level, showing that capital choices are actually more divided than the market seems.
Looking back at this week, the dollar weakened, US long-term bond repos doubled, and geopolitical tensions continued, so the logic for safe havens has always been there. For a non-interest-bearing hard asset like gold to hit an all-time high, it’s often not because people expect it to generate yield, but because other options in hand are unsettling. Bitcoin is often called digital gold, but when capital seeks a safe harbor, the old-school gold is still chosen first.
Central banks around the world have been quietly increasing their gold holdings for years, with the story of de-dollarization told for a long time. Central bank gold purchases have been the most stable buying force for gold prices for several years, a force unrelated to retail sentiment. When gold and crypto both rise sharply in the same week, it superficially looks like risk appetite has returned, but behind the scenes, two groups with completely different mindsets are buying. One bets on the continuation of the rebound, the other bets on systemic problems. Crypto’s rise is driven by sentiment and leverage, while gold’s rise is driven by base holdings and faith.
We crypto traders tend to focus only on our own markets. But when an unrelated market quietly hits a historic high, the force behind it might be more worth pondering than just a rally. How long this simultaneous rise in gold and crypto can last, or whether one is quietly overextending, what do you think?The first hires for the so-called self-custody wallet were anti-money laundering officers.
At 8 a.m. this morning, Mike Cagney, co-founder and executive chairman of Figure, released something new called The Wallet Co. It's a mobile wallet that claims to combine the smooth experience of modern fintech with self-custody and native on-chain products.
He listed quite a few features. The cash in the wallet can be spent anytime and even earns interest, it can receive RWA yields, it will include securities-type prediction markets, and the last point is key: every wallet has a built-in AI Agent.
I originally thought this was just another narrative patchwork, but scrolling down, there was a recruitment announcement. The company is openly hiring operations and compliance officers, explicitly requiring experience in KYC, anti-money laundering, payments, and fund flows.
A wallet that puts self-custody in the first line of its slogan is hiring compliance officers as its first batch of employees. Think about that combination.
Coincidentally, on the same day, Bitwise's CEO also tweeted that a new wallet for the tokenized world is about to launch. Neither company comes from grassroots crypto origins; one is backed by the publicly listed Figure and its on-chain lending business, the other is an asset manager overseeing a bunch of ETFs. On the same day, two institutional players simultaneously reached into wallets.
Why are they all crowding this layer? Look at what’s happened in recent days and you’ll probably understand. Circle is no longer renting other chains; its own Arc mainnet will launch next month. Coinbase has directly integrated perpetual contracts into the Base App. AWS now allows AI agents to pay with USDC autonomously, and it’s officially available. These moves all point in the same direction: whoever controls the user confirmation interface controls pricing power and routing rights. Exchanges, issuers, and cloud providers all want to be that interface, so wallets naturally become a battleground.
But I’m more concerned about another issue. The wallet space hasn’t been very peaceful lately. Rabby’s browser extension was recently found to have a silent signing issue, where malicious sites could drain assets under certain conditions. Coldcard’s firmware had a random number vulnerability that led to thousands of bitcoins being stolen. The security account of users managing their own private keys is still not fully understood by the industry.
The current institutional approach is to add features. Add interest-bearing cash, add RWA yields, add securities prediction markets, and add an AI agent that can make decisions for you. This means one product contains your private keys, your yield positions, and a program that can sign orders on your behalf. The more features, the larger the attack surface—this logic goes without saying.
And the compliance officer role is very telling. To include securities prediction markets, to handle payments and fund flows, KYC and anti-money laundering are hard requirements that can’t be bypassed. So this wallet was never designed as a permissionless product from day one; it’s more like a licensed financial application disguised as self-custody.
I don’t think this is a bad thing. Institutional entry improving user experience and compliance is good for the whole industry. But the branding and the core are two different things, and that’s what I’m watching closely. Self-custody was originally a promise about where power resides; now it’s slowly becoming a selling point, a buzzword, a veneer.
So the question is for you. If a wallet contains an AI agent that can sign on your behalf, and there’s a dedicated compliance officer monitoring your fund flows, do you still think this is self-custody? Your private keys—are you really holding them alone?Tomorrow, $1.8 billion worth of options expire, and the critical survival line for Bitcoin is at 66,000.
Bitcoin’s price action these past couple of days has been somewhat uncharacteristic. The day before yesterday, it was bottoming out amid widespread pessimism; last night, it surged straight past 70,000, rising nearly 9% in 24 hours. Behind this big bullish candle, a number that’s easy to overlook is quietly approaching. Tomorrow, a batch of options in the crypto market will settle, with a notional value exceeding $1.8 billion. Many are still digesting the fear from the day before yesterday, and now face the dilemma of whether to chase the rally or not.
Among these, BTC options alone account for $1.57 billion, and ETH options $250 million. More importantly, the max pain prices are $66,000 for BTC and $1,950 for ETH. Max pain simply means the price point where most option holders suffer the biggest losses and sellers earn the most stable profits. There’s a saying in the community that prices tend to be pulled toward the max pain point around expiration because that benefits the market makers who opened the positions the most.
Here’s the issue. Spot Bitcoin is already above 70,000, well above the 66,000 max pain point. This means a large number of call options are in the money, while many put options have become worthless. In the range between 66,000 and 70,000—over a thousand dollars—there are still many open contracts. Option settlement doesn’t happen out of thin air; market makers hedge by trading corresponding positions in the spot market. The further the price is from the max pain point, the more positions they need to close, so every monthly expiration day, the market closely watches that number for good reason.
Some have pulled Deribit data showing the put-call ratio is only 0.65, meaning far more calls are bought than puts, and the market is overwhelmingly bullish. This crowded positioning is usually not a problem, but with $1.8 billion in options expiring simultaneously, it can cause issues. Veteran traders often say privately that the most dangerous times are when everyone feels confident.
The shorts just went through a nightmare. In the past 24 hours, $3 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with shorts accounting for over $2.7 billion—the largest short squeeze day in nearly two years. Whether the liquidated shorts still have the strength to fight back or if this rally has silenced them completely is uncertain. Yet just as the shorts fall, option sellers become a new variable.
I’m not rushing to conclusions. I just want to ask: if the price really gets dragged back near 66,000 tomorrow, will you see it as a buying opportunity on a pullback, or as a signal that the rally is over? At this level, neither bulls nor bears can sleep well, and even friends who trade options have started to speak less.SanDisk has recently experienced intense fluctuations at high levels, becoming a sentiment barometer for the storage sector.
After the stock price surged tens of times from the low point at the beginning of the year, it has repeatedly seen large single-day swings of around 10%, reflecting the market's lack of consensus on pricing for this AI-driven storage supercycle.
The core logic supporting the bulls is clear: explosive demand for AI inference and KV Cache, long-term enterprise SSD contracts (approximately $93.9 billion NBM agreements signed with 8 customers), combined with mid-to-long-term guidance of 80% gross margin and 75% operating profit margin, as well as a commitment to return 100% of excess free cash flow to shareholders.
The daily published models have led some institutions to see a shift from a strong cyclical commodity to a more certain AI infrastructure asset.
However, the bears are equally strong: historical experience shows that high profits in the storage industry are often difficult to sustain long-term, supply will eventually catch up, and price elasticity may quickly decline.
The forward P/E ratio may seem low, but it is based on extremely high profit assumptions, so once demand or pricing slope slows, there is a huge risk of valuation compression.
Peers like Micron and SK Hynix are also under pressure, with the sector overall showing a divergence of "strong performance, weak sentiment."
Behind the high-level volatility is a fierce debate in the market over "structural change vs. traditional cycles." The future NAND price trend and the execution of long-term contracts will be key to resolving these differences. #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 🚨 BTC surpasses $70,000, capital starts flowing into Altcoins!
Bitcoin is leading the way, ETH breaks $2,200, SOL accelerates, and ETF capital continues to return. If BTC holds steady at $70K, ETH keeps outperforming, and SOL maintains strength, capital could keep flowing from BTC → ETH → SOL → Altcoin → Meme.
🔥 Important question: is this just the beginning of a major altseason?
#BTCBreaks72K #FOMC9To3Split #PopMartEarningsWatch Short sellers shouting about a crash lost 2.7 billion overnight
In the past 24 hours, something quite ironic happened in the entire crypto market. According to CoinGlass data, the total liquidations across the network surged to $3.024 billion, with short liquidations at $2.77 billion and long liquidations only $252 million. Over 170,000 people worldwide were caught up in this liquidation event, with the largest single position liquidated on Hyperliquid's BTC-USD, valued at $48.8 million.
Just a few days ago, social platforms were full of voices shouting that Bitcoin would fall back to fifty or sixty thousand. Many people put real money into short positions, determined to press down this rally. Instead, Bitcoin didn’t fall but rose, surging above seventy thousand, up 8.6% in 24 hours. Those betting on a drop ended up being the worst hit in this rally, with their margin accounts wiped out in an instant.
This is no ordinary fluctuation. The scale of short liquidations this time exceeded the $2.4666 billion on October 11, making it the largest short squeeze in the crypto market in nearly two years. In other words, countless people who bet on a price drop were completely overturned by the market overnight. Looking back, many had the right logic to short, but the timing was wrong; going against the trend reversal at the critical moment means even the right judgment can’t withstand leverage.
What does 3 billion mean? It’s roughly equivalent to the entire annual foreign exchange reserves of many small countries. Yet in the crypto market, it vanished into thin air in 24 hours. The scariest part of a short squeeze is its self-reinforcing nature. As prices rise, shorts’ margin becomes insufficient and they get liquidated; these liquidations turn into buy orders pushing prices even higher, forcing more shorts out, snowballing bigger and bigger. In this wave, longs who laid low at the bottom made a fortune. On Hyperliquid, one address started with zero in March and went long on HYPE with 10x leverage, now holding unrealized profits of $14.58 million. Even the big player Maji got a piece of the pie, though he has quietly started reducing his position recently, clearly more sober than those stubborn shorts. This scissors difference between longs and shorts vividly illustrates the market’s cruelty.
What’s more intriguing is that the longs profiting from this rebound aren’t so calm either. On-chain data shows that the HYPE whale with 10x leverage who made gains hasn’t moved since adding to his position in April, almost like he’s asleep. But in reality, more people want to take profits as soon as they make a little. Maji has started reducing his position, indicating even veterans worry this rally came too fast and are ready to cash out anytime. After all, a similar short squeeze last year ended with longs stepping on their own feet.
Many people aren’t truly bearish; they just feel uneasy about the rapid rise and want to short a bit to wait for a pullback before running. But the market chose to go up at the most crowded short position. When everyone around you is discussing whether to short, that’s often when shorts are most likely to collectively get wiped out. The market is best at punishing those who take feelings as truth. What you think is a pullback opportunity is actually a trap set by others.
Zooming out, this short squeeze happened amid multiple positive factors stacking up. US debt just broke 40 trillion, the Treasury announced doubling long bond buybacks to suppress yields, and the dollar weakened accordingly. Trump also stated at the White House crypto meeting that he’s considering accumulating a substantial amount of Bitcoin and specifically mentioned bringing Hyperliquid into the US. Once sentiment turns, shorts become the easiest fuse to ignite.
So here’s the question: after this wave of shorts being ground into the dirt, will the short squeeze continue, or will profit-taking trigger a new round of stampede? How long do you think this rebound can last? Bitcoin's Best Single-Day Gain, Yet Retail Investors Frenziedly Sold 40,000 Coins
Bitcoin surged 7.1% yesterday, marking its best day since February this year. The entire community was celebrating, with shorts liquidated nearly $1.9 billion, and the market glowing red. Yet amid the cheers, a group quietly passed on their chips, moving faster than anyone else.
CryptoQuant's analyst Darkfost uncovered a contrast in on-chain data. Yesterday, short-term players who had held for a brief time and just entered the market transferred over 44,300 Bitcoin to exchanges, setting a new record for the largest single-day profit-taking in 2026. They weren't trapped and cutting losses; they ran as soon as they broke even. Bitcoin climbed back above the short-term holders' cost line at $67,100, and this group immediately chose to cash out, unwilling to wait a cent longer.
This is quite counterintuitive. We often say retail investors are the last to catch the falling knife, but in this rebound, short-term retail fled faster than anyone. Unlike institutions waiting for a grand narrative, they exit as soon as they break even, showing more discipline than many expect. Over 40,000 coins is no small amount; at the market price then, it represented nearly $3 billion in concentrated selling pressure, yet it appeared on the very day of the big rally.
There were plenty of catalysts behind this surge. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases, suppressing long-end yields. Trump mentioned at a White House crypto meeting that he was considering buying a substantial amount of Bitcoin, pushing Congress to pass the Clarity Act, and even wanting to bring Hyperliquid back to the U.S. Any one of these would excite the market, but despite the excitement, the short-term players' actions reveal something else.
They don't believe this is a reversal; more see it as an opportunity to break even. Bitcoin has nearly halved from its peak last October, and breaking even is already a blessing, so they take their profits early. This is the signal we should focus on. When a batch of holders near their cost line desperately offload, it means selling pressure above is not easily absorbed. The rebound may be real, but bottoms are rarely drawn with a single big green candle.
The question is left to the market. Can this fire ignited by news turn into a slow bull market that everyone is willing to hold onto? Or will every rally become an exit for old coins to cash out? What do you think—how is this time different from the fake rebounds in previous months?One day before the Treasury stepped in, someone was frantically buying $120-230 million worth of U.S. Treasuries.
The U.S. federal debt officially surpassed $40 trillion this week, with a fiscal deficit of $432 billion just in July alone. Even more astonishing, interest payments on national debt for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 have already exceeded Medicare spending, becoming the second largest federal expenditure after Social Security. Facing rising long-term interest rates, the Treasury took action this week, announcing a significant expansion in the buyback scale of 10- to 30-year U.S. Treasuries. This was originally a market rescue move, and the market did respond positively, with the dollar weakening and both gold and Bitcoin surging.
But what truly sends chills down the spine is another detail. Just one day before the Treasury officially announced the expanded buyback, a fund called ZROZ was suddenly snapped up crazily. This is a Pimco-issued ultra-long duration Treasury ETF that specifically buys zero-coupon Treasuries where principal and interest are separated, making it extremely sensitive to interest rate changes. Its duration is about 28 years, and for every one percentage point drop in yield, its price theoretically can rise by nearly 30%. ZROZ itself only has $1.5 billion in assets, yet it absorbed $123 million in a single day, equivalent to more than 8% of new money flowing in that day.
On Tuesday, ZROZ saw a net inflow of $123 million in one go, directly setting a new historical record since the fund's inception, with a trading volume of 5.2 million shares—almost twice the peak volume seen in 2024. The day after, when the Treasury's big move was announced, ZROZ surged 3.2% on Wednesday, marking its largest single-day gain since November 2024. Given the scale and timing, this hardly looks like retail investor activity.
Buying such a highly sensitive 28-year duration asset precisely one day before the policy announcement reeks of something fishy. Is it pure luck, or did someone have advance knowledge of the Treasury's plans? There's a saying in the market: the closer you are to power, the faster the scythe. The deficit still accounts for about 6% of GDP, and long-term Treasury supply continues to be issued relentlessly. This Treasury buyback seems more like a race against term premium.
More subtly, the market rally brought by this Treasury buyback is not truly a rate cut trade. The Federal Reserve's recently released meeting minutes show several officials still saying that if inflation doesn't come down, rate hikes may still be necessary in the future. In other words, the dollar's recent weakness and Bitcoin's rebound are actually quite fragile.
Who exactly was the mysterious money that positioned itself a day in advance? No one can say for sure now. But one thing is painfully clear: while ordinary people are still debating whether the bull market has arrived, someone has already placed real money bets on the answer. HYPE Listing Insider Whale Has Unrealized Profit of Forty Million USD Over Ten Months
On-chain detective is focusing on a very conspicuous address today. Someone opened a long position right when HYPE was first listed and hasn't moved it for ten months. The current unrealized profit on the account has exceeded forty-four million USD. Even more astonishing is that just the perpetual funding fees paid over these ten months have burned nearly four million seven hundred and ten thousand USD.
This is definitely not a position an ordinary retail investor could hold. HYPE is the platform token of Hyperliquid. When it launched, there were constant rumors within the community about listing insiders—who got allocations early, who knew the cards—making it a favorite topic for the community to dig into. Judging by the position size and timing, this address is clearly not a temporary bandwagon trader but someone who saw the situation clearly from the start.
Hyperliquid has been a benchmark for decentralized perpetuals over the past two years. As the platform token, HYPE’s value is directly tied to trading volume. The platform handles hundreds of millions to over a billion in contract volume daily, with fees used for buyback and burn to form a closed loop. This is why early chips are so coveted. Being heavily positioned at a stage when the price was not fully discovered means the information advantage translates into real money.
The contrast lies here. Many think holding without moving is the easiest way, but this whale has paid over four million USD in funding fees alone, equivalent to giving away four hundred thousand USD to the counterparty every month. Over the full ten months, HYPE went through several rounds of halving-level violent swings; any panic could have wiped out the position. The fact that he has held on until now is not necessarily due to strong mentality but because the cost basis is low enough and the entry point early enough.
Now zooming into the last couple of days. The market surged violently overnight, with HYPE’s single-day gain exceeding 20%. Trump’s statement supporting Hyperliquid’s compliance entry into the US added fuel to the fire. At the peak of this sentiment, the whale’s unrealized profit was revealed, causing the community to explode.
What’s truly intriguing is what comes next. The forty-four million is just an unrealized figure; it doesn’t count until closed. Having paid over four million in funding fees to hold until now, will he continue to ride this wave for free profit or quietly exit amid the hype? Everyone is watching. Someone who positioned early based on listing insider info—will he become a legend or a reverse signal for others? Only the on-chain data will tell.
The blockchain is not a lawless place; every move is recorded. As soon as this address moves next, the market will immediately know the answer. From yesterday to today in the crypto space, I think there's something quite worth discussing. It's not simply about how much $BTC has risen, but that this wave's movement is completely opposite to the market expectations from a few days ago. A few days ago, everyone was focused on a few things: high US Treasury yields, a strong dollar, poor liquidity, and BTC hovering around 63,000 to 65,000. Naturally, many people started leaning bearish. So, there were actually quite a few short positions piled up on the market. Then yesterday, the US Treasury increased the scale of some long-term Treasury buybacks, causing long-term yields to start dropping, and the dollar weakened accordingly. For liquidity assets like BTC, this is the most direct positive catalyst. Meanwhile, the crypto space also encountered a US policy environment that continued moving in a more friendly direction. When these factors combined, BTC first broke through the resistance levels above. The real acceleration actually happened after the breakout. Because there were too many short positions earlier. As the price rose, some shorts stopped out first; then as it rose further, leveraged shorts began to liquidate; the liquidations themselves generated forced buying. So you see a very typical pattern: the rise was fairly normal at first, but the speed actually increased as it went on. This is also why yesterday shouldn't be simply understood as "a sudden influx of many people buying BTC." A significant portion of the gains came from the shorts themselves. The same goes for ETH. Once BTC opens up risk appetite, funds naturally flow to assets with greater volatility, so ETH, SOL, and others start to clearly outperform. At times like this, I generally don't just look at the gains.📊 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Express (August 20)
Short-term shorts were crushed mercilessly, but mid-to-long-term longs suffered a massive bloodbath...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $2,943.55 $0 $2,943.55
4 hours $135,500 $12,200 $123,300
12 hours $2,796,500 $2,570,200 $226,200
24 hours $3,671,900 $3,348,300 $323,600
From the ZEC liquidation data: shorts dominated the 1-hour period with zero long liquidations, totaling $29,435, probing for a short squeeze; the 4-hour direction confirmed, short liquidations were 10.1 times that of longs, volume jumped to $123,300, shorts strongly controlled the market, launching a nuclear-level short squeeze; the 12-hour direction completely reversed, long liquidations crushed shorts by 11.3 times, volume soared to $2,570,200, a full-scale long liquidation; the 24-hour long advantage continued to expand, long liquidations reached $3,348,300, 10.3 times that of shorts, cumulative liquidations exceeded $3.67 million. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 76.2% of the 24-hour total, showing high concentration, with most of the long liquidation completed within 12 hours. The long liquidation dominance ratio slightly dropped from 11.3 times at 12 hours to 10.3 times at 24 hours, indicating short squeeze momentum slightly waned but remained extremely high, with a large gap between longs and shorts. The market makers on ZEC executed a fierce turnaround from short squeeze to long liquidation—short-term shorts were targeted and blasted, while mid-to-long-term longs were wiped out. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 20
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is moving from "storytelling" to fully "delivering results"—the capital feast of AI infrastructure is entering its first round of return validation.
🏗️ Cloud Providers' Earnings Report: AI Investment Enters Return Validation Period
In Q2 earnings season, the four major cloud providers delivered their first "report card" on AI investment. Amazon AWS revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in 18 quarters; Microsoft Azure grew 43% YoY, with annual Azure revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time; Google Cloud revenue hit $24.8 billion, surging 82% YoY. Combined cloud business revenue of the three reached approximately $116.2 billion, up about 43% YoY.
More importantly, order backlogs. AWS backlog reached $496 billion, with triple-digit YoY growth; Google Cloud backlog was $514 billion; Microsoft's commercial RPO rose 84% YoY to $678 billion—future revenue visibility is improving.
But the cost is also real. Amazon's free cash flow turned from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion over the past 12 months; Google’s free cash flow is under short-term pressure. The four companies' quarterly capital expenditures have soared to $151.4 billion.
The market is voting with its feet: rewarding companies that can convert computing power into real cloud revenue, punishing narratives with investment but no returns.
📊 CPI Released Tonight: The Scale for September Rate Hike Hangs in the Balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12, the US July CPI will be released. The market expects overall CPI YoY to fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Before the data release, CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike remains at 51.2%.
Deutsche Bank expects CPI MoM at 0.15%, core CPI MoM at 0.26%. The Cleveland Fed forecasts July overall CPI MoM to rise slightly by 0.09%, core CPI MoM by 0.21%. If tonight’s data exceeds expectations, the hawkish camp will quickly expand; if moderate, rate hike expectations may further fade.
💰 Nvidia $500 Billion vs Intel $20 Billion: Diverging Paths
On August 10, two chip giants announced financing plans simultaneously.
Nvidia partnered with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and others to establish an independent computing power financing platform, aiming to leverage over $500 billion in third-party capital. Jensen Huang stated: "Computing power has now become infrastructure like electricity and the internet." Essentially, this turns GPUs from consumables into financeable infrastructure assets. After the announcement, Nvidia’s stock closed down 2.86%.
Intel announced a $20 billion common stock issuance, the largest single equity financing since its 1971 IPO. The stock closed down 4.06% on the announcement day. Both paths point to the same conclusion: the AI chip competition has escalated from a technology race to a capital race.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: cloud providers prove AI demand is real with 43% revenue growth, but $151.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure reminds the market that the burn rate has never slowed; the ZEC contract market shows a fierce turnaround from short squeeze to long liquidation—short-term shorts were targeted and blasted, mid-to-long-term longs wiped out, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $3.67 million; every basis point of tonight’s CPI may decide the direction of the September rate hike scale; Nvidia and Intel’s simultaneous $500 billion and $20 billion financing plans announce that the AI race has officially entered a "capital-intensive" new phase. When industry logic, macro narratives, and capital strategies converge on the same day, the market is moving from "storytelling" to fully "delivering results." #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #财报观察员: Pop Mart's growth shifts gears, can multiple IPs take over?
The leader has something to say
Pop Mart's half-year report is out. Revenue reached 17.17 billion, up 23.8%, profit was 5.04 billion, only up 10.1%. Revenue is growing faster than profit, efficiency is declining.
The growth engine is switching. The China market grew 47.3%, while Asia-Pacific and the Americas dropped 9.7% and 16.5% respectively. THE MONSTERS, which owns LABUBU, saw revenue fall 7.5%, while Star People increased nearly sixfold, becoming the second largest IP. IPs are shifting gears, but whether new IPs can take over from the old ones still needs time to verify.
Overseas business is cooling down, profit margins are falling, and inventory turnover is slowing. Whether multiple IPs can continue growth is key to sustaining valuation.
For Bitcoin, this is not directly related. But Pop Mart represents the sentiment of a type of consumer stock; if the Hong Kong stock market weakens after the earnings report, risk appetite contraction will indirectly transmit over. Bitcoin is still fluctuating around 68000, waiting for a pullback to find a position.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, orders must have stop-loss set, good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL The valuation restructuring of AI infrastructure is strongly siphoning global venture capital, with data and computing power expenditures by US tech giants squeezing the premium on crypto assets, and cross-market liquidity accelerating its tilt toward Silicon Valley's physical infrastructure.
From the capital distribution perspective, Nvidia paid Mercor tens of millions of dollars in data service fees last quarter, directly driving Mercor's financing valuation to $20 billion. This indicates that high-certainty AI data infrastructure is prioritizing top-tier risk appetite funds in the US stock and private equity markets.
In terms of driving factors, nearly $500 billion in cumulative debt and credit financing in the AI sector constitutes the dominant force. This directly raises the high-yield threshold for cross-market capital, causing the DeFAI and AI Agent narratives in the crypto market to face strict pricing tests when seeking liquidity injections.
When US dollar liquidity is tightly linked to capital expenditures of US tech stocks, the US tech infrastructure sector attracts the vast majority of marginal incremental funds, putting high-risk crypto assets lacking physical revenue support at a disadvantage in capital allocation.
The bullish scenario trigger condition is that if the $500 billion AI financing demand is quickly absorbed by the traditional US credit market and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy brings liquidity abundance. At this time, the marginal capital overflow from Silicon Valley infrastructure will rotate back to the crypto market's AI narrative sector. It is necessary to closely monitor the trading volume of the US AI sector and changes in crypto net inflows; if the trading volume related to crypto AI agents continues to shrink, the bullish scenario fails.
The bearish scenario trigger condition is that high valuations at the $20 billion level for data infrastructure like Mercor continue to absorb credit funds, and US interest rates remain high. This will cause liquidity to stay in the US stock and Silicon Valley AI industry chain, leading to a decline in crypto market levels. It is necessary to observe the capital expenditures of US tech stocks and the outflow speed of crypto assets; if traditional venture capital pauses investment in the manual annotation industry, the bearish scenario fails.
The condition for scenario failure is a breakthrough in AI automated self-annotation technology, causing the artificial data premium that supports the $20 billion valuation to be rapidly squeezed out. This will trigger a re-pricing of the US AI infrastructure capital chain, with marginal funds flowing back from the US stock industry chain to other high-beta assets.
The most important observation variables in the next 7 days are: the net capital inflow scale of the US AI data service sector and the actual impact of the US dollar index changes on the flow of risk appetite funds.
#黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #白宫峰会：特朗普称曾讨论购入BTC Full Day Review
In the past 24 hours, BTC moved from $64,375.30 to $71,962.90, closing up +11.79%, with a volatility range of 11.98 percentage points.
The highest point was $72,080.00, the lowest point was $64,369.50, with a trading volume of $1.25B, at least 5 rounds of battles between bulls and bears.
Across the market, 126 assets rose and 21 fell, with rising assets accounting for 85.7 percentage points, showing a clear profit-taking sentiment.
Sector Overview:
TeleFi/Memecoin sector average 0.00%, representative assets: $NOT flat, $DOGS flat
GameFi sector average 0.00%, representative assets: $AXS flat, $SAND flat
Other sectors average 0.00%, representative assets: $ENS flat, $MASK flat
Established/Litecoin-related sector average 0.00%, representative assets: $LTC flat, $BCH flat
Total market trading volume was $3.28B, a change of -12 percentage points compared to the previous 24 hours.
Strongest asset $BOME +61.96%, weakest asset $ACE -11.80%, with a strength gap of 73.8 percentage points.
Overall: BTC closed positive, sectors showed divergence but overall sentiment is not bad; next, we will see if trading volume can continue to keep up.
Market data comes from OKX public API and does not constitute any investment advice.
The principle is clear, the rest depends on execution. Yushu plummets while on-chain contracts exceed $100 million in trading volume
Today there was quite a surreal scene. On the A-share market, Yushu Technology's stock price once dropped over 17% intraday, falling from over 700 yuan, with a total daily turnover reaching 6.7 billion yuan. Yet on the same trading day, the perpetual contracts for Yushu Technology listed on trade.xyz on-chain saw a 24-hour trading volume surpassing $100 million.
On one side, there is the real stock diving hard; on the other, people in the crypto world are using it to open contracts and bet against each other. These two things happening to the same company give a completely different vibe.
trade.xyz is a platform for US stocks and popular asset perpetual contracts, closely connected to the Hyperliquid chain. Yushu, a robotics company that recently went public on the A-share market and surged over 400% on its listing day, has been forcibly brought onto the blockchain as a tool for anytime long or short positions. In the past 24 hours, its largest single liquidation was $446,000, and it was a long position that got liquidated.
This reveals something quite interesting. Those willing to open contracts on Yushu on-chain are not really focused on how many robots the company sold this quarter, but rather on whether its story is noisy enough and its volatility large enough. A real stock is being treated like a meme coin on-chain.
Even more subtle is the rhythm. When Yushu surged nearly fivefold in half a day after listing, everyone was amazed at how crazy the robotics concept was. Just a few days later, the stock has started to pull back, but the on-chain contract volume has hit a new high. The sentiment in the stock market and the on-chain casino seem like two completely disconnected clocks.
We have previously written about Binance and Robinhood bringing US stocks on-chain and turning them into perpetual contracts. Yushu’s case pushes that trend further: in the future, not only Tesla and Nvidia but even newly listed A-share companies might be made into on-chain contracts, trading 24/7 without closing.
But the risks here are also clear. The total open interest of on-chain contracts is clearly declining, currently just over $30 million, indicating that those chasing in are not that committed. Stocks have price limits and regulatory backstops; on-chain contracts have none. A 17% drop in the stock is painful enough, but on-chain 10x leverage volatility can wipe someone out within an hour.
The question is left to you. When a company’s stock is brought into the crypto casino, is it being priced or consumed? Who will be the next to be brought on-chain?Pop Mart announced its 2026 first-half performance today: revenue of ¥17.173 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%; profit attributable to shareholders was ¥5.038 billion, up only 10.1% year-on-year, below market expectations. Gross margin was 69.7%, slightly down.
The THE MONSTERS series, represented by LABUBU, generated revenue of ¥4.45 billion, down 7.5% year-on-year, with popularity clearly returning to normal; meanwhile, Star People surged, with revenue of ¥2.65 billion, a staggering 580% increase, becoming the fastest-growing IP.
CRYBABY, DIMOO, SKULLPANDA, HIRONO, and others also recorded double-digit growth respectively. In the first half, 11 artist IPs generated over ¥100 million in revenue, with 6 surpassing ¥1 billion.
The Chinese market remains strong, with revenue of ¥12.2 billion, up 47.3%; however, Asia-Pacific and the Americas declined by 9.7% and 16.5% respectively, mainly due to the fading overseas online traffic dividend and cooling core IP popularity.
This is a typical "growth gear shift" earnings report. After LABUBU moved from a super hit to a mature phase, the company is now relying on a multi-IP matrix to take over.
The breakout of Star People validates the incubation capability, but whether it can continue to take over and form a new stable pillar still depends on the performance of new products in the second half and the re-acceleration overseas. Whether multiple IPs can truly take over will be the key to determining if the valuation can be maintained. #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ A 9–3 split at the FOMC is something I’d pay attention to. The final rate decision matters, but seeing three policymakers disagree tells us there’s clearly more debate happening inside the Fed than the headline decision might suggest.
Personally, I find the disagreement more interesting than the vote itself. If inflation, employment and growth were all pointing clearly in the same direction, you’d probably expect policymakers to be more aligned. $BTC
#BTCBreaks72K
#PopMartEarningsWatch Everyone says the bull market is back, retail investors rush in while institutions quietly accumulate Ethereum.
Last night, the crypto market shifted dramatically overnight, Bitcoin surged straight to 70,000, and Ethereum rose over 20% in a single day. The group chat was full of calls for a bull comeback. But amid this celebration, one set of data is worth watching closely. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, with $189 million flowing in just yesterday alone, making it one of the most solid buying signals in this rebound.
Leading the accumulation is BlackRock. Its ETHA product had a single-day net inflow of $122 million, with total historical net inflows now exceeding $11.8 billion. Fidelity’s FETH is also strong, adding over $36 million in one day. These two veteran institutions aren’t hyping their buys in chat groups, but their purchase orders never stop. This quiet buying actually speaks volumes.
Looking at the combined data over these three days is even more striking. During the early August downtrend, Ethereum ETFs actually experienced consecutive net outflows, which many interpreted as institutions abandoning ship. But as soon as prices bounced, the buying returned immediately—and with more intensity than when they left. This pattern of selling on the dip and chasing on the rise is typically a retail investor’s hallmark, but now it’s showing up in what should be the more composed institutional products, which is quite intriguing.
Here’s where it gets interesting. At the same time, a whale who dumped 2,000 Bitcoin in the early morning continues to reduce holdings, and the retail fear and greed index has jumped to 62, the highest since last October, clearly signaling greed. On one side, some are selling into the rally, while on the other, institutions are quietly accumulating through ETF channels. These two actions side by side tell a different story.
Why are institutions choosing this moment to buy Ethereum? The underlying logic of this rebound is clear: the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, reigniting liquidity expectations, and the SEC introduced the Reg Crypto Assets proposal, opening a compliant path for public token financing. As the largest smart contract platform, Ethereum naturally becomes the easiest target for institutional entry. With a clear compliance path, funds are confident to come in.
More importantly, it’s about timing. ETFs only disclose holdings changes after market close each day. Retail investors focus on the intraday price swings, while institutions watch the sustained inflows over three days. By the time we react, their positions are already well established.
Three consecutive days of net inflows don’t guarantee the trend will continue, and even the highest historical net inflows can’t prevent single-day pullbacks. But while everyone debates whether the bull market is truly back, it’s worth seeing who is voting with real money. Do you think these institutions are buying halfway up the mountain, or are they once again ahead of retail investors?The panic index jumped from fear to greed in one day
Alternative's data just updated, and today the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index jumped to 62, officially entering the greed zone. Yesterday, this number was still at 46, which belongs to the fear side. Such a sharp turn from fear to greed in one day is historically uncommon.
What’s even more striking is that 62 is the highest point since October 2025. In the past half year, market sentiment has never been this exuberant.
How is this index calculated? It tracks six dimensions: volatility accounts for one quarter, market trading volume one quarter, social media buzz and market surveys each account for 15%, Bitcoin’s dominance in the overall market accounts for 10%, and Google search trends account for 10%. In other words, it doesn’t just look at price, but also how much people are talking and searching.
Last night’s short squeeze crushed the shorts, wiping out tens of billions in short positions across the network, and Bitcoin surged close to 70,000 in one go. Sentiment follows price, which is normal. But what’s worth pondering is that the sharp rise in the index is mainly driven by the hard indicators of volatility and volume; social media buzz has increased, but survey data hasn’t fully caught up yet. The body reacts faster than the brain.
Interestingly, this kind of sentiment indicator is often a paradox of lagging yet leading. Price moves first, the index follows, and by the time the index surges to a level everyone can see, the most profitable phase is often already over. It’s more like a mirror reflecting the collective heartbeat of the crowd, not the direction itself.
However, 62 is still some distance from extreme greed. The truly dangerous zone is above 75, which is usually near a phase top. Right now, it’s more like just poking its head out from suppression, not yet firmly standing. For a market suppressed by a bear market for nearly half a year, sentiment recovery naturally takes time; a jump to 62 in one day is more like a spring releasing pent-up energy rather than a new trend being confirmed.
Facing such a sentiment reversal, the biggest test is controlling your impulses. Historically, when sentiment rushes into the greed zone, it often means short-term expectations are already quite full. The higher the index, the more excited the participants, and the thinner the safety cushion for latecomers. We don’t predict price movements, just want to remind you that when friends who usually don’t talk about crypto start asking if you’re paying attention, that might be the time to stay calm.
It only takes one day for the market to go from fear to greed, but it may take longer to return from greed to rationality. Whale's $600 million sell-off divergence signal within the month
Early this morning, BTC just recovered from this epic short squeeze, and the retail investor groups were full of bullish voices. But just as everyone rekindled their hopes, an old address moved its position again.
Data monitoring shows that address bc1qsy sold 2,000 BTC early today, worth about $136.5 million at the time. More striking is its pace: over the past entire month, this address has cumulatively sold 9,513 BTC, with a total value of about $623.4 million. While the market cheered the rebound, it has been steadily offloading.
This contrast is particularly glaring. Yesterday, the entire network liquidated over $2.7 billion in short positions, the largest short squeeze day in nearly two years. BTC was forced up to around $69,000, just shy of $70,000. Yet, amid this strong rebound, the old money address quietly sold off.
The sentiment side tells a completely different story. Alternative's Fear and Greed Index jumped to 62 today, officially entering the greed zone, the highest point since October 2025. The day before, it was still at 46. The market shifted from fear to greed overnight, and many began to believe the worst was over.
But on-chain, some are moving in the opposite direction. On one side, retail investors are excited again, with ETFs seeing net inflows for three consecutive days. BTC spot ETFs alone absorbed $517 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT taking in $285 million; on the other side, large addresses are reducing holdings. Even more interestingly, almost simultaneously, BIT withdrew 894 BTC from Binance, worth about $61.93 million, quietly transferring it to a cold wallet. Some are moving BTC into exchanges to sell, others are withdrawing to hold—this divergence is hidden in these opposite on-chain moves.
It's not just this address hesitating. The whale who set ten major targets flipped from long to short today, opening a short position of 1,894 BTC at an entry price of $69,826, with a stop loss set at $70,400. Even this figure, often seen as a market barometer, is shorting at the peak of the rebound.
We always focus on candlesticks for answers but tend to overlook those silent large addresses. They don't tweet or signal trades; they quietly transfer chips late at night. By the time most react, the market may have already changed from what it looks like today.
Whether this round is a bear market rebound or a true bull return, no one can give a definitive answer. But one thing is clear: while groups are showing off profits, someone is moving BTC into exchanges. Do you think this wave is your opportunity, or a stepping stone built for you as others retreat?