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Today (August 18), SanDisk (SNDK) experienced a sharp decline, showing a significant pullback trend. The stock price fell back below the $1700 mark, ending the previous six consecutive gains.
The main reasons for the decline are threefold:
1. Profit-taking: The prior continuous rally accumulated a large amount of profit-taking, triggering technical selling.
2. Lagging growth in performance: According to the latest report, SanDisk's NAND Flash revenue growth in Q2 was only 50.7%, ranking last among the five major giants, causing market concerns.
3. Sector and macro resonance: Affected by the surge in global long-term government bond yields and liquidity concerns, the US storage chip sector collectively plunged, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping 5%.
From a technical perspective, SanDisk failed to hold the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (around $1673), and the short-term primary support level has shifted down to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (around $1513). Close attention should be paid this week to the strength of this support level and the macro signals from the Jackson Hole Symposium.
(Note: The above information is compiled based on public data and does not constitute investment advice.) After Bitcoin's recent rebound, the real market risk lies not only in price direction but also in leverage accumulation. According to CoinDesk's report on August 18, if BTC falls below around $60,000, some highly leveraged long positions may be forced to reduce holdings, and liquidation pressure could amplify a normal pullback into a chain reaction of volatility. This type of market condition easily creates an illusion: the price does not continuously hit new highs, yet the perpetual contract funding rates remain relatively high, indicating many traders are still paying a premium for long positions. As long as the price continues to move sideways, funding costs will gradually erode margin; once support levels are broken, both active position closures and forced liquidations may occur simultaneously. However, "liquidation risk" does not necessarily mean "inevitable decline." Spot buying, ETF capital flows, and dollar liquidity determine whether there will be absorption after leverage is released. For market participants, it is more worthwhile to observe whether open interest increases in sync with price rises and whether trading volume significantly expands during declines. The takeaway is straightforward: before judging the trend, first assess the position structure. Volatility without leverage is just a patience test; volatility with high leverage may mean risk is quietly lining up. This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Lately, I've been increasingly feeling that the US stock market and BTC are not as synchronized as before.
When US tech stocks start to adjust, BTC can still maintain its own rhythm.
In the past, if people saw this situation, many would wonder if the correlation had broken down.
But I actually think this is a sign of market maturity.
The two markets are not exactly the same.
US stocks have earnings, valuations, and company fundamentals.
BTC has its own capital structure and market cycles.
So capital can't always price them in the same way.
The most obvious problem with the US stock market now is that tech stocks have risen too much earlier, and valuations need to be digested.
BTC seems more like it's waiting for new capital to catalyze it.
So now I won't simply use the rise or fall of one market to predict the other.
I prefer to look at them separately.
For US stocks, I look at which sectors have support.
For BTC, I look at whether there is capital following after a breakout.
If the two markets strengthen together again in the future, that would of course be best.
But if they continue to diverge, that's not strange.
I even think that after divergence, opportunities are easier to find.
Because the market doesn't have everything rising at the same time.
The truly worthwhile things to buy are often those filtered out after divergence.I'm increasingly fond of a certain market condition.
It's when good companies start to be shunned by the market.
Not because their fundamentals have deteriorated.
But simply because their short-term performance isn't impressive enough, or the entire sector is temporarily out of favor, so capital begins to leave.
At times like this, I actually start researching.
Because the market is especially prone to being driven by emotions in the short term.
When everyone likes it, prices get pushed very high.
When everyone dislikes it, prices get pushed very low.
But the company itself doesn't undergo huge changes in a single day just because of market sentiment.
That's what I find most interesting.
Recently, with the AI sector adjusting, I've been observing this situation.
If a company's valuation just drops but its business hasn't changed significantly, I will continue to follow it.
If the company's own growth starts to slow down, then I won't try to bottom-fish just because it "fell a lot."
So now when I buy stocks, I don't pay much attention to the decline percentage.
I look at the expectation gap.
Everyone thinks it's bad, but I find it's not that bad.
Those are the opportunities worth researching.
The same goes for BTC.
If one day the market suddenly thinks Bitcoin has no chance, but on-chain funds, institutional demand, and market liquidity haven't obviously worsened, that's when I will seriously take a look.
Because price and sentiment sometimes get ahead of the facts.
Trading is about finding opportunities within these discrepancies.I am Cige. NVIDIA has officially stepped in as the guarantor for OpenAI's data center.
The PORTS-Pike project in Ohio has been finalized. SB Energy will build and operate the data center under a 20-year lease, OpenAI will be the tenant, NVIDIA will provide up to $105 billion in credit support, and has announced a $1.5 billion investment in SB Energy. NVIDIA clearly stated that if OpenAI does not renew the lease in the future, the computing power can be subleased to other customers. The guarantee scale has been reduced from the initial $250 billion discussed in July to $105 billion, a drop of over 50%. This scale adjustment indicates that while NVIDIA is participating in the AI capital chain, it is also actively controlling its credit exposure.
NVIDIA is transforming from a pure chip supplier into a credit provider and capital organizer for AI infrastructure. The three moves of investing in SB Energy, providing credit guarantees, and securing exclusive computing power supplier status are advancing simultaneously. Market concerns about circular financing controversies will not disappear because of this, but the logical chain has been reinforced again. Each round of AI infrastructure credit expansion reminds the market that the boundaries of fiat credit are continuously being stretched.
The impact on BTC is indirect but profound. The long-term narrative of BTC as a non-sovereign asset will not change because of a single guarantee transaction, but each round of credit expansion adds bricks and mortar to this narrative.
#英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Recently, as the AI sector adjusted, the market immediately started discussing a bubble.
But what I want to figure out now is one question:
What exactly are institutions selling?
Is it because they think AI has no future?
Or is it because they think the current valuation is too high?
These two reasons are very different.
If it's the former, then of course it's worth being cautious.
But if it's just the latter, I'm actually not too worried.
Because no matter how good a company is, it can't keep rising with higher and higher valuations forever.
If it has risen a lot before, it's normal for funds to take profits.
Especially now that US Treasury yields are putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks, funds will naturally recalculate.
So I won't just turn bearish on AI because Nvidia falls.
I'm more focused on the next earnings report.
Orders.
Profits.
Data center demand.
These are the things that truly determine the long-term trend.
Market sentiment can make stocks rise and fall a lot in a day.
But what really determines how much a company will be worth in a few years is its profitability.
This principle actually applies to the crypto world as well.
BTC may fluctuate in the short term due to sentiment.
But what really determines whether it can succeed in the long run is capital, market acceptance, and changes in the entire crypto market infrastructure.
So now I increasingly dislike explaining the market with just one sentence.
"AI bubble."
"No chance for crypto."
Such statements are too simplistic.
To really trade, you have to break down the reasons.ETF funds suddenly collectively flow back! $298 million poured in a single day, this feels increasingly unusual🔥
On August 17, the US BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $298 million in one day.
BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed $160 million, and Fidelity's FBTC followed with $112 million. ETH wasn't idle either, with a net inflow of $30.85 million, of which BlackRock's ETHA accounted for $25.89 million.
What's even more worth pondering is — the money is starting to expand outward.
LINK spot ETF had net inflows for two consecutive days, with $2.07 million on August 17 alone. Bitwise directly bought 171,870 LINK from Coinbase and Wintermute. AVAX ETF also recorded positive inflows simultaneously.
All four major crypto ETFs turned positive.
This is not a one-off move by some institution; it's a systemic capital return.
Why is this time different?
First, the money is not just buying BTC. Previously, ETF inflows were dominated by BTC, with ETH just tagging along, and altcoin ETFs were basically ignored. But this time, LINK and AVAX are also seeing capital inflows simultaneously — indicating that institutional allocation logic is shifting from "only buying the big coin" to "gradually expanding the circle."
Second, BlackRock and Fidelity are buying at the same time. IBIT $160 million, FBTC $112 million, two giants making moves on the same day — this is not a small-scale test but a real position allocation. Capital at this level doesn't do the same thing in the same time window without reason.
Third, ETH ETF inflows are accelerating. $30.85 million net inflow in one day, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for 83%. Although the ETH/BTC exchange rate hasn't fully recovered, institutions are already voting with their money.
The rhythm of this capital return strongly resembles the "institutional rush" market when ETFs were first approved in January 2024.
Back then, BTC started first, ETH followed, and then funds gradually expanded to altcoins. If this script repeats, then today's LINK and AVAX might be like the SOL and AVAX back then — the first batch to capture overflow liquidity.
Of course, the $298 million single-day inflow still lags behind the $500-600 million peaks seen in 2024. But direction is more important than scale — shifting from continuous outflows to inflows is itself the most critical turning signal.
As long as this "mainstream coins absorb capital first, then funds expand outward" rhythm continues, market risk appetite has a chance to further recover, and altcoins will gradually benefit from overflow liquidity.
Don't stay stuck in the previous cycle's mindset when the direction has just turned.
#BTC #ETH #LINK #AVAX #ETF$BTC $ETH $SNDK #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Whether SanDisk will "skyrocket" in the future is uncertain. In the short term, it is suppressed by high expectations and cyclical fluctuations; in the long term, it depends on the fulfillment of AI inference demand and whether the new business model (NBM) can truly smooth the storage cycle.
Key conclusions
Skyrocketing is not inevitable: The stock price has risen over 600% year-to-date, partially pricing in expectations; the historical storage cycle pattern (about a 4-year cycle) remains unbroken, and high gross margins are difficult to sustain permanently.
There is an upward logic: AI inference drives structural growth in data center storage demand. The company has locked in long-term contracts (covering about 2/3 of shipments through 2028) plus technological iterations (BiCS10/HBF) to provide support.
Main risks: Long-term contract price caps limit price increase potential; downstream inventory reduction leads to slower shipments; market sentiment is extremely sensitive to guidance (e.g., early August guidance was considered "not impressive").
Positive support
Demand side: AI is shifting from training to inference, with KV cache demand boosting enterprise NAND demand, with TAM expected to reach 1.2ZB by 2030.
Business model: The new business model (NBM) covers 8 major customers, locking in volume and floor prices, reducing cyclical volatility.
Financial guidance: Targets "mid-to-high double-digit" revenue growth from 2028 to 2030, with gross margin maintained around 80%.
The storage industry inherently experiences sharp rises and falls; long-term agreements stabilize volume but may limit price upside flexibility.babala made money again!
This time it's still the storage I'm most familiar with—Micron MU.
The day before, Micron was still strongly rallying above 1000, squeezing out many shorts, and the market started to think storage would continue to take off.
But I didn’t stubbornly guess the top during the rally.
Nor did I bet on the first candlestick at the open.
I waited for the market to truly shift from strong to weak.
✔ The 1000 round number support was broken
✔ The rebound near 980 failed to hold back above
✔ Micron, SanDisk, and the semiconductor sector weakened simultaneously
After all these signals appeared, I confirmed the downtrend at 973 and opened a short position.
Today Micron gapped down to open at 957.
The highest rebound after the open only reached 978.67, still failing to reclaim 980.
Then the price continued to drop, hitting a low of 939.41.
The previous support has turned into resistance, confirming the logic of my short entry at 973.
The plan for this trade is very clear:
✔ Entry price: 973
✔ Stop loss and invalidation point: 985
✔ First observation zone: 940–937
✔ Final target and take profit price: 910
From 973 to 985, the risk is 12 points.
From 973 to 910, the target range is 63 points.
If it reaches the target fully, the risk-reward ratio of this trade is about 1:5.25.
The 940–937 zone is not my final target but an important level to see if the bears can continue to open space.
If 937 is effectively broken down, it means the downtrend structure continues, and then I will look at the 925–910 area.
My final take profit target is near 910.
But 910 is just the target after trend continuation; it doesn’t mean the price will definitely reach it.
If Micron stops falling near 937 and reclaims 955–960, I will proactively protect profits and won’t wait for 910 to risk giving back the profits already made.
If it recovers back to 973–980, the shorting logic basically fails.
I still recognize that AI and HBM demand support the long-term fundamentals of storage.
But shorting Micron doesn’t mean I’m bearish on the entire storage cycle.
What I’m doing is trading the high-level sentiment retreat and this segment of the market after short-term structural weakness.
This time it’s not a lucky guess on direction.
It’s only after structure, sector linkage, and risk-reward all align that I choose to enter.
No adding positions, no casually changing stop loss, and no losing discipline just because the drop is smooth.
Target 910.
If the market gives it, I take it.
If not, I will first protect the profits that already belong to me. Gold and US stocks are collectively surging, so why can't $BTC rise? Nighttime BTC trend analysis 🔥
🔥 Current major market drivers:
1. Goldman Sachs states the probability of a rate hike in September is very low; the negative black swan is removed, but stopping rate hikes ≠ cutting rates. High interest rates still suppress the market, with no incremental liquidity released.
2. Gold has risen above $4430, and options funds are collectively bullish.
Key pitfall: Part of gold's rise is driven by Middle East geopolitical risk aversion. Risk-averse funds prioritize buying gold, not necessarily flowing into BTC, causing a divergence where gold surges but BTC struggles to rise. Only a rate cut-driven rally will truly benefit BTC.
3. The 30-year US Treasury yield remains at multi-year highs; risk-free returns are there, so institutions dare not rush into the crypto market, which is the biggest constraint suppressing BTC's upward movement.
4. ETF funds are the decisive factor; relying on news expectations alone is useless. Continuous subscription inflows are needed to break through the range.
Core contradiction: Gold is soaring, US stocks hit new highs, but BTC is stuck grinding within a range, showing clear market divergence—this is the biggest current market hotspot.
Current price range: 62500-64800 large range battle, repeatedly hitting resistance above, support repeatedly tested, bulls and bears fiercely fighting!
🎯 Key levels
- Strong support: 62500-62800; a 4-hour close below this range triggers a medium-term weakness alert.
- Strong resistance: 64800-65200; multiple failed attempts to break through here. If this level doesn't break, the consolidation pattern will persist.
(Personal opinion only, not investment advice)
Gold surges, but BTC doesn't follow—what's the real reason? Everyone is welcome to discuss together!$ETH market shows new key changes:
Ethereum's recent market attention continues to heat up, with trading volume and capital flow becoming the market focus. Compared to simply chasing the rally, what deserves more attention now is whether ETH can stabilize above the key resistance level.
If ETH successfully breaks through and maintains above the resistance level, the short-term upside potential may further open up; but if the breakout fails and volume increases on the pullback, caution is needed for the correction pressure caused by profit-taking from bulls.
Currently, ETH's trend still depends on BTC, overall market capital flow, and market sentiment. Short-term traders should focus on the volume after the breakout, rather than just the price changes. $KMNO — Silence before the move? $KMNO sits near $0.01802 with buyers waiting for momentum.
EP: $0.0175–$0.0180
TP: $0.0193
SL: $0.0168$SNDK activity has sharply increased in the last few hours — volumes have grown 2.6 times with accelerated momentum.
Over the past day, a drop of 9.93%, but in the last 4 hours the correction slowed to -4.25%. Price at 1631.0, nearest support at 1614.4.
If the current rebound does not hold, the next barrier is 1653.7.Recently, the saying "AI has peaked" has started to appear more frequently.
I think this issue can actually be thought about in reverse.
If AI really has peaked, what should we see in the market?
First, the earnings expectations of core companies should start to decline.
Second, capital should continue to withdraw.
Then, the rebounds should become weaker and weaker.
If none of these things happen, and the stock price just adjusts a bit due to high valuation, I don't think it can be directly called a peak.
So now when I look at AI, I won't change my judgment just because Nvidia drops a few points.
I'm more concerned about the next earnings report.
How are the orders?
How is the demand for data centers?
Can profits still maintain growth?
These are the things that truly determine the trend.
Stock prices can deviate from fundamentals in the short term.
But in the long term, they have to come back.
This is also why I increasingly prefer fundamental trading now.
It might not be as exciting as short-term trading.
But at least you know why you hold.
The crypto world is actually the same.
When BTC rises, everyone is very excited.
But if you ask why they buy, many people actually can't explain clearly.
In this situation, once the price pulls back, people tend to panic.
So now, before I make any trade, I always ask myself:
If the price doesn't rise temporarily, am I still willing to hold?
If the answer is yes, it means I bought based on logic.
If the answer is no, then what I bought might just be emotion. $TRUMP just confirmed: • No negotiations with Iran • Maritime blockade has been implemented • The Strait of Hormuz remains open and normal passage continues
This strait is important because about 20% of the world's oil transport passes through here. If it really gets closed, you will see Brent crude oil prices surge significantly, and shipping costs will also skyrocket. Currently, the strait remains open, so this blockade seems more symbolic or targeted at specific objectives — rather than a full "tightened blockade." But the situation is very fragile. Any escalation that leads to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even a $BTC 📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 18)
According to liquidation data, Gouzhuang played a textbook strategy on KAITO of "short-term full-force short squeezing→ medium-cycle confusion→, long-term all-in long-term selling" harvesting strategy, decisively switching directions and surpassing $390,000 cumulatively.
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $24,700, $2,098.95, $22,600
4 hours $45,600 $6,834.77 $38,800
12 hours: $116,000, $57,900, $58,100
24 hours: $398,900 $282,400 $116,500
According to $KAITO's liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with the bears being 10.8 times the bulls. The short squeeze unfolded with nuclear explosion-level intensity, with liquidations totaling $24,700—the bears dominated the short-term period, while the bulls were directly crushed; The 4-hour short squeeze continued to crush the shorts, with shorts outnumbering the bulls 5.7 times. Although the pressure of short squeezing weakened significantly, it continued, with liquidations jumping from 24,700 to $45,600—the bears kept harvesting but were running out of momentum; The 12-hour direction weakened sharply, with bears only slightly outperforming bulls by 0.3%. The bulls and bears were almost evenly matched, the direction extremely unclear, and liquidations surged to $116,000—a mid-cycle that confuses everyone; The 24-hour direction completely reversed, with long positions overwhelming the bears. The bulls outperformed the bears by 2.42 times, completing a fierce turnaround from confusion to full-scale selling, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $398,900—on KAITO, the Dog Trader completed a perfect three-stage harvest: "short-cycle full-force short squeezing→ medium-cycle confusion→, and long-term full-scale selling." Short-cycle bears aggressively squeezed short sells, 12-hour long-short stalemate confused everyone, and 24-hour bulls took over with 2.4x intensity full-scale harvesting. This is a textbook example of "sell short first, then confuse, then sell long." Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being bought back.
⚠️ Risk warning: KAITO's short-term short squeeze (1H/4H) and long-cycle long squeeze (24H) form a sharp directional switch, and the 12-hour direction is extremely ambiguous and highly misleading; 24-hour liquidations accounted for 82% of the total daily volume, indicating a very high concentration. It is recommended to reduce leverage to within 3 times; do not blindly bottom-fish, strictly control positions, and wait for a clear direction.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 18
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously digesting the stalling of the "old engine" and the climbing of the "new engine"—smartphone pressure, automobiles rescuing the market, US Treasury yields tightly anchored, and storage logic reshaping, four forces converging simultaneously in this window.
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Financial Report: Phones go down, cars go up
After the market closed on August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of 108.9 billion yuan, adjusted net profit of 6.2 billion yuan. Breaking it down:
The smartphone business is under comprehensive pressure. Shipments plummeted 26.5% from 42.4 million units in the same period last year to 31.2 million units, with revenue dropping to 42.1 billion yuan. Rising storage chip prices suppressed global demand, but Xiaomi optimized its product structure to push smartphone ASP to a historic high of 1351 yuan—"Sell less, but sell at a higher price."
The automotive business became the biggest highlight. Smart electric vehicle revenue was 23.9 billion yuan, with 104,199 units delivered, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%. But the automotive business is not without risks—gross margin dropped sharply from 26.4% last year to 19.2%, with an operating loss of 2.6 billion yuan. Goldman Sachs believes Q2 will be Xiaomi's "profit bottom," and the second half of the year is expected to see a turning point driven by marginal cost improvement and new car growth.
"Phones support the family, automotive entrepreneurship"—Xiaomi's transformation period continues.
📈 The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since 2007
On August 18, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to 5.31%, the highest since 2007.
Three pressures driving this together: the US fiscal deficit continues to expand, with the CBO forecasting debt interest payments to climb to $2.1 trillion by 2036; the AI investment boom has led to large-scale corporate bond issuance, with investment-grade bond issuance hitting a record high for the same period in August; and US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel.
The rise in long-term interest rates means that the valuation benchmark for global risk assets is being re-anchored. When the risk-free rate rises above 5.3%, how much longer can the high valuations of tech stocks hold?
💾 SanDisk closed up over 8%, reshaping the storage logic of long-term contracts
SanDisk rose about 8% on Monday to $1,786.85, with a cumulative increase of over 629% for the year. JPMorgan resumed coverage, setting a target price of $2,250.
The core driver of this rally is long-term agreements (NBM long-term contracts): SanDisk has signed 10 long-term supply agreements, with a minimum contract value of $93.9 billion, an average contract term exceeding four years, and $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. The company has locked in about two-thirds of its shipments for fiscal year 2028.
SanDisk is shifting from a highly cyclical NAND supplier to a value-creating model driven by AI demand and secured by long-term agreements. When demand visibility extends from 3 months to over 4 years, the logic of the cycle is rewritten.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Xiaomi's smartphone business is raising prices as it shrinks in volume, its automotive business is losing money as it ramps, and the switching between old and new engines is still in a painful phase; The U.S. Treasury market is using a 5.31% yield to signal to the world that lax fiscal discipline is being repriced; SanDisk, on the other hand, uses $93.9 billion in long-term contracts to try to rewrite the storage industry's cycle of "surges and crashes." As the old engine stalls, the risk-free rate is re-anchored, and industry logic is being reshaped—the market in August 2026 is searching for new coordinates for pricing systems in the "post-AI era." #财报观察员: Xiaomi Q2 Financial Report Released—Is It Cars Saving the Pack or Smartphones Holding Us Back?
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%, long-term agreements are under scrutiny #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仍谨慎？
"US Stock Market Unleashed Perpetuals: 24-Hour Funding Rates Are Wearing Down the S&P 500 Bull Base"
On August 18, Kalshi submitted an application to the CFTC to launch US500 perpetual futures tracking the S&P 500. The crypto world's $90 trillion annual volume of perpetual leveraged trading officially enters the heart of the US stock market.
Saying goodbye to the traditional futures quarterly rollovers, we now have a 24/7 funding rate drain machine. Under the inertia of long-term S&P bulls clustering, bulls must pay premiums to bears every eight hours, with annualized rates easily exceeding 18%. Even if the S&P index slowly rises 10% in a year, accounts holding long positions for the long haul not only fail to profit but have their base positions continuously eroded by bleeding holding costs.
More dangerously, there is a liquidity vacuum late at night. During US stock market off-hours, market makers can create deep pits on the perpetuals market with minimal spot selling pressure. If the 5x leverage liquidation price is instantly breached, algorithmic forced liquidations trigger a cascade, causing retail holders' chips to fall into liquidity traps before the market opens.
Without the ticking clock of expiration dates, the hidden funding rate wheel and nighttime spikes spin even faster. $BTC Trump's Tough Stance: Negotiations with Iran Reset to Zero, Naval Blockade Continues
On August 18 local time in the U.S., President Trump explicitly cut off diplomatic channels with Iran on social media: there are currently and will be no talks or dialogue arrangements. He also reiterated that the U.S. naval blockade is "comprehensive and effective," stating that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and all mines have been cleared.
This statement comes as the 60-day negotiation window between the U.S. and Iran expires without resolution, with fundamental conflicts over nuclear issues and control of the strait unresolved, solidifying the diplomatic deadlock.
Impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum:
Short-term sentiment is under pressure but shows resilience. The "no contact" stance between the U.S. and Iran has increased geopolitical risk premiums, with Brent crude oil breaking above $91 per barrel and energy inflation expectations heating up. This poses a macro headwind for risk assets reliant on low interest rates and high liquidity. Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently remained under pressure around $64,000 and $1,900 respectively.
However, Bitcoin has demonstrated some safe-haven resilience, not falling in line with U.S. stocks and even gaining. Ethereum is relatively weaker, lagging behind BTC. The market is also watching this week's White House meeting between Trump and crypto industry executives, where regulatory signals may provide more directional guidance than geopolitical factors.
Summary: The tough diplomatic stance increases macro uncertainty, and inflation expectations driven by oil prices suppress the upside for crypto assets. But BTC shows better resistance than ETH and most altcoins in the current environment, exhibiting "atypical safe-haven" characteristics, with short-term volatility likely to further increase
$BTC $ETH Watching the market all day, I really got a bit numb. ETH hovered around 1900 the entire day, and the volume visibly shrank. Honestly, I can't say for sure if this is the calm before the storm or just waiting for a direction.
ETH: The 1900 barrier has been tested too many times
ETH basically oscillated within the narrow range of 1885-1918 today. Every time it touched 1900, it seemed like it was probing something, but it just didn’t have the strength to break through. This kind of "support below, strong resistance above" consolidation pattern looks like the night before a breakout—but which way it will go, I really can’t tell now.
XAUT: My signal was a bit bullish, and there’s definitely something there
XAUT repeatedly tested support around 4380, and every dip was met with buyers. On the daily chart, after bottoming near 3943 at the end of July, the uptrend has never been broken. The fact that this gold token can hold at this level shows there is indeed capital supporting it.
BTC: Stable is stable, but it’s a bit strange
BTC hit around 64610 today then pulled back to hover near the 64000 mark. On the 4-hour chart, it’s a classic consolidation box. The 1-hour EMA30 is pressing down at 64000, so short-term bears still have the upper hand, but they can’t push it lower. Neither bulls nor bears dare to make the first move here; the sentiment is very much one of waiting and watching.
SanDisk is quite lively over there
SanDisk rose nearly 9% today, having signed long-term agreements with 8 customers, including 3 major US hyperscale cloud providers. The agreements are expected to cover about 50% of shipments by FY2027, increasing to about two-thirds by FY2028. There’s also news that Anthropic’s annualized revenue hit $65 billion in July—AI’s demand for storage is still rising, which is the confidence behind SanDisk’s sustained strength.
Honestly, the direction still hasn’t emerged
At this BTC level, you can be bullish or bearish. I still hold my previous view—sometimes the best trade is no trade. Wait for the FOMC minutes release (August 19), wait for direction confirmation before acting. Don’t let anxiety place orders for you before the direction is clear.
#ETH #BTC #XAUT #闪迪$BTC $ETH $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007, with the 10-year also reaching 4.72%.
What does this mean? If you buy 30-year US Treasuries with 1 million, you earn 53,100 annually risk-free.
BTC barely recovered to around 64,500 today, down 46% over the past year. Gold rose 33% in the same period.
Both are considered safe havens, but their trends have completely diverged.
My judgment is clear: in an environment where the risk-free rate is above 5%, the "digital gold" narrative for Bitcoin temporarily doesn't hold.
The reasoning is simple. Bonds pay interest; Bitcoin does not. When Treasury yields were only 1%-2%, Bitcoin's upside potential could cover the opportunity cost. But now at 5.31%, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin is too high. Institutions have no reason to forgo a 5.31% risk-free return to gamble on BTC's volatility.
Some say the US debt scale is too large and will eventually collapse, with BTC as the ultimate solution. I agree with this long-term logic. But in the short term, a risk-free rate above 5% is like a sword hanging over risk assets. The Fed is holding steady, long-term rates are still rising, and global liquidity is tightening.
I'm holding spot positions without leverage or bottom-fishing. I'll wait for a clear turning point in long-term rates before making moves.
What do you think? Would you dare to add positions at this level?
#30-year US Treasury yield hits highest since 2007
$BTC The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond once rose intraday to about 5.31%, reaching the highest level since 2007. This means that investors now demand an annualized return at the pre-global financial crisis peak for lending money to the U.S. government for a full 30 years.
This development is not sudden. Over the past few months, long-term interest rates have continued to rise, and the 30-year yield has stayed above 5% for the longest duration since 2007.
Last week, the Treasury auctioned $25 billion of 30-year bonds, with a winning yield as high as 5.216%, setting the highest auction record since 2001. The market is voting with its feet, clearly raising compensation demands for holding U.S. debt long-term.
Three forces are simultaneously at work behind this.
First is fiscal. The U.S. federal debt size is approaching historic highs, with the annual deficit still near $2 trillion. The Treasury continues to increase issuance of medium- and long-term bonds, flooding the market with supply.
Second is inflation stickiness. Over the past five years, inflation has never stabilized near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Cost pressures from energy, tariffs, and AI-related investments have gradually exhausted the market’s patience for "inflation retreat." Holding 30-year bonds means locking in inflation risk for the next three decades, naturally driving up the term premium.
Third is capital diversion. Tech giants are issuing large amounts of corporate bonds to build AI computing infrastructure, competing with Treasuries for long-term funds. Demand from traditional buyers is also weakening at the margin. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 🔥Trump clashed with a CNN reporter again.📺
On the afternoon of the 17th, he was meeting a 16-year-old lifeguard at the White House, a kid who had recently saved several people on a Texas beach. Suddenly, a reporter asked if Kim Jong-un had requested a reduction in the US-South Korea military exercises. Trump immediately got angry, shouting "Quiet" eight times and adding, "You're being very rude in front of young people."
After realizing the reporter was from CNN, he became even more blunt—"Noisy and disruptive! Always reporting fake news!" When another reporter asked about the "Lincoln" aircraft carrier running low on supplies, he directly said CNN made it up, "Everyone on the ship told me the facilities are well maintained."
But CNN had previously reported detailed specifics—the "Lincoln" had been deployed in the Middle East for 250 consecutive days without docking, with incidents of sailors fighting to the death and some breaking down and jumping overboard. The US military strongly denied this, and Trump took the opportunity to slam CNN again.
Behind this story, there’s a line worth the crypto community’s attention—the long-term deployment of the aircraft carrier in the Middle East indicates ongoing military pressure in the Strait of Hormuz direction. Last week, Iran announced "US forces have been expelled," yet the carrier remains deployed. Verbal attacks on CNN aside, the naval presence hasn’t withdrawn; geopolitical risk premiums won’t dissipate just because of a "fake news" claim. For BTC, the macro environment of high oil prices and persistent inflation shows no fundamental change in the short term. $SNDK yesterday surged 8.88% to close at $1,786.85, hitting a new high since July 14 and breaking a market cap of 260 billion; today it reversed sharply, dropping 8.92% intraday to $1,627, with market cap shrinking by 23 billion overnight to below 240 billion. Looking at the longer term: still +40% for the week, +652% year-to-date, still 31% below the June high of $2,354. Why the drop today: profit-taking after the rally day. Investors gained +13.67% in a single day, over 30% cumulative last week, +8.88% yesterday, with a 40% weekly gain pushing short-term chips fully on board. The broader market didn’t cooperate: all three major indices closed lower last night, the tech seven giants index down 0.96%, UBS trading desk had previously warned that AI trading was too crowded and advised to "pull chips out first." Note two details: today’s volume shrank significantly (only 40% of usual relative volume), small orders are cashing out, medium orders are absorbing—more like profit-taking exits, not panic selling. Has the fundamental changed? The trump card remains intact. 93.9 billion NBM long-term contracts are still locked (8 customers, 10 agreements, covering 2/3 of FY2028 capacity), Q1 revenue guidance $10.3-10.8 billion, a sequential increase of 15%-20%, gross margin guidance 83%-85%, and a $14 billion buyback authorization just approved. Q4 actuals stand: revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year, gross margin 84.6%. The story is intact, it’s just that the stock price ran too fast. Market divergence: is this a golden pit or the peak of the rebound?Atomic Canyon has launched NIVA, an AI assistant dedicated to the nuclear industry, supported by funding from NVIDIA. This is a pragmatic signal in the intersection of nuclear power and AI.
NIVA was jointly developed by Atomic Canyon, the Nuclear Power Operation Research Institute, the Electric Power Research Association, and the Nuclear Energy Research Institute. It is trained on regulatory public data and industry proprietary operational records and is now fully accessible to commercial nuclear power plants. Large operators such as Constellation Energy have already started using it.
Its core function is to help frontline personnel quickly retrieve knowledge, operational experience, and troubleshoot issues, with the clear goal of improving existing workforce efficiency rather than replacing positions.
Currently, nuclear power faces dual pressures:
On one hand, AI data centers are driving up electricity demand, making nuclear power expansion prospects the best;
On the other hand, there is a shortage of engineering and technical talent. NIVA directly targets this bottleneck.
NVIDIA's investment carries even more strategic significance—it is not only betting on AI applications but also laying out the energy infrastructure to support its own computing power expansion.
In the short term, such tools can accelerate the output of existing units and the approval efficiency of new projects; in the long term, they may lower the talent threshold for the nuclear power revival.
The combination of funding and industry collaboration landing in practice is more convincing than a mere concept.
$NVDA #Gold stands above 4430, option funds turn bullish: bulls have the advantage, but 4430—4450 is key
Gold has currently returned to around $4430, with market bullish sentiment clearly heating up. Recent weak employment, cooling inflation, and a decline in September rate hike expectations have all supported gold. 
But there is a detail to note:
4430 is not an ordinary level; it is an important short-term resistance zone.
Recent market analysis generally regards $4430—4450 as the key area for whether gold can open up space in the next phase. 
Why are option funds turning bullish?
Because the core logic of market trading is changing:
Weak employment → Fed rate hike expectations decline → US Treasury yield pressure → gold holding costs decrease
Combined with Middle East geopolitical risks, gold’s safe-haven attributes are further amplified.
Previously, the gold options market has already shown a clear bullish tendency, indicating some funds are betting in advance on gold prices continuing to rise. 
However, bullish options do not necessarily mean prices will definitely rise.
If a large number of bulls have already established positions early, there is a risk of profit-taking once prices hit key resistance levels.
Next, focus on two scenarios:
① Volume breakout of 4430—4450
If gold can effectively break through and hold above 4450, this would not be a simple rebound but could open new upward space.
Especially if volume and bullish option positions continue to increase after the breakout, the bullish trend will be further strengthened.
② Failure to break 4430—4450
This requires caution.
Currently, long-term US Treasury yields have risen significantly, with the 30-year yield even reaching highs not seen since 2007, which puts pressure on the non-yielding asset gold. 
If yields continue to rise, even with a fundamentally bullish outlook, gold may experience:
A rally → profit-taking → a pullback to around 4400 or even 4380.
Technical analysis currently regards 4380—4400 as an important short-term support zone. 
So my view:
Gold is moderately bullish in the medium term, but 4430—4450 determines whether the short-term acceleration can continue.
Holding above 4450: bulls open new space.
Repeated resistance near 4430: first consolidate and digest.
Breaking below 4380: short-term bullish structure clearly weakens.
The most important now is not to chase gold just because it has risen, but to see if there is truly incremental capital stepping in above 4430.
If gold successfully breaks through, and at the same time US Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens, and bullish options continue to increase, that would be a more complete bullish resonance.
Conversely, if gold prices rise but yields also rise, be wary that this rally is more driven by safe-haven funds and may not have strong sustainability.$XAU #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #闪迪投资者日后股价大涨，长期目标待验证 #SNDK short-term surge of 80%, sentiment extremely overheated, staggered short positions above 1800🚨
$SNDK SanDisk has rebounded from 993 to above 1800, with a short-term cumulative increase of over 80%.
Last night it peaked at 1835, sentiment fully maxed out, I have already established staggered real short positions above 1800.
Daring to be bearish at this level is not a subjective directional bet; technicals, fundamentals, and institutional funds all simultaneously triggered warning signals.
📉Technical: Indicators severely overbought, top signals appearing
4-hour RSI surged to 89, entering extreme overbought territory; MACD shows high-level bearish divergence.
Price formed a double top at 1663, with huge volume during the rally phase, followed by rapid volume shrinkage.
Above 1800 is an extreme zone of sentiment battle; the pressure limit of this rebound is right here.
📉Fundamentals: Cycle peak signals gradually emerging
Stock price soared from $40 to a high of $2354, market cap expanded over 50 times.
Q2 performance largely supported by product price increases; consumer business continues to shrink.
Meanwhile, SK Hynix NAND new capacity is about to be released, storage cycle turning point is approaching, making it difficult for the boom to sustain at a high level.
📉Capital: Top institutions cashing out at highs
Renaissance Technologies drastically cut SNDK holdings by over 99%;
Appaloosa completely liquidated about 280,000 shares.
Smart money exits at highs, while retail investors keep chasing, a contrast worth pondering.
One point to clarify here: opening shorts above 1800 is not blind shorting, but ambushing after the rebound hits extreme sentiment.
At this stage of the market, the bubble is visibly obvious; I choose to stand on the side of the cycle's return.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH Concerns over high valuations in the US stock market and the sideways consolidation of the crypto market form the current core contradiction. Market trading focus is shifting from chasing paper gains to seeking unpriced fundamental expectation gaps.
Mainstream funds in the US stock market remain cautious about high valuation pressure, while the crypto market lacks immediate momentum to break out of the range. Both are in stages of chip turnover and clearing. Price trends have fully reflected the current market consensus; new momentum depends on whether subsequent incremental variables outperform pessimistic expectations.
In terms of driving factors, fundamental performance and capital retention take precedence over short-term market heat. In specific AI sectors, order data far exceeding expectations can drive valuation reconstruction, while in the crypto market, synchronized improvements in capital flow, macro environment, and institutional demand are key to breaking the sideways range.
The bullish scenario requires pessimism to be cleared without substantial damage to the actual fundamentals. If US stocks pull back but corporate orders continue to exceed expectations, or if the crypto market sees continuous net inflows of capital and institutional demand during the sideways consolidation, the market will trigger a re-pricing rally after clearing.
The volatile and bearish scenarios depend on the continuation of macro tightening pressure or net capital outflows. If US stock valuations are squeezed and profit expectations are continuously revised downward, or if the crypto market lacks capital follow-through and institutional demand slows during the sideways consolidation, prices may continue to face downward pressure or extend the bottom-clearing cycle.
The invalidation signal for the above reasoning is a one-way liquidity shock in the macro environment. If macro liquidity contracts more than expected, causing indiscriminate capital withdrawal, even if fundamentals remain unchanged, the valuation recovery window will be significantly delayed.
In the next 7 days, focus should be on tracking order follow-ups of key US stock targets and monitoring net capital inflows and changes in institutional demand during the crypto market's sideways consolidation.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 #Anthropic年化营收达650亿美元$OPN is a prediction market project. This project is currently close to dead, with basically no one using it. So, from the perspective of the project itself, this token has little buying value. However, in crypto, it doesn't mean that a project without much value won't experience a big surge. There are quite a few coins in the market that inherently have little value, but because someone is manipulating the market behind the scenes, their market cap ends up being quite high. Therefore, we need to analyze the contract data again. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract open interest has hit high points twice. That is to say, after $OPN reaches a certain price, a large number of shorts emerge in the market. Moreover, its long-short ratio in contracts basically shows no decent increase. This indicates that there is neither much capital willing to buy the dip after it falls, nor many shorts willing to take profits after a brief drop. Let's look at its contract data over a longer period. It can be observed that although its contract open interest often has phases of increase, the long-short ratio almost never has any significant rising phases. This shows that there is very little capital going long in the market. Therefore, I personally believe this coin may soon undergo a correction. —————————————————— Overall, $OPN is not worth chasing at highs. If you want to short, it might be worth considering.Many people still haven't truly understood $NVTS and $WOLF.
One of the biggest changes in AI data centers is that the power supply voltage is moving towards 800V.
Previously, a single rack consumed tens of kilowatts; now with the new generation of GPUs stacked, it directly reaches hundreds of kilowatts or even megawatt levels. The current is too large, cables are thicker, heat generation is more severe, and losses are more exaggerated.
By increasing the voltage, the same amount of power can be delivered with smaller current, resulting in thinner cables, lower heat, and higher efficiency.
NVIDIA has clearly promoted the 800V high-voltage DC architecture. What NVTS and WOLF are doing is the core power chips (gallium nitride/silicon carbide) in this system—equivalent to the "high-speed switch" for high-voltage power supply, requiring high efficiency, low heat generation, and the ability to withstand high voltage.
US stock investment websites believe the real differentiator is time:
Navitas (NVTS) was selected by NVIDIA in May 2025 to participate in the next-generation 800V architecture and has already started delivering production-level samples to multiple customers.
Wolfspeed (WOLF) only announced passing Lite-On Technology's 800V data center power platform certification on August 6, 2026.
One is already delivering samples for testing, the other just got the entry ticket.
WOLF is strong in silicon carbide, but that doesn't necessarily mean NVTS will win.
However, for an industry that will truly scale massively around 2027, early entry into customer design, sample delivery, and testing is very critical.
Data center power supplies are not phone chargers; once testing is passed and design is integrated, it is very difficult to change suppliers later. The market knows 800V is coming.
What hasn't been fully priced in yet is—who has already positioned themselves at the doorstep of 800V volume ramp-up. #USStocks $NBIS $IREN Evolution of Bitcoin's High Point Comparison Adjustments: A New Cycle Structure Without Extreme Crashes
After Bitcoin entered its all-time high range, unlike the 2017 or 2021 cycles, it shows limited adjustments without extreme capitulation or large-scale forced liquidations.
Cycle-specific Drawdown Dynamics: Comparing the depth of the drop from the peak and the recovery resilience afterward to determine whether it is a normal profit-taking adjustment or an indicator of a structural weakness shift.
Mild Adjustment Absorption: Unlike the -70% crashes in past cycles, due to inflows of macro institutional liquidity, selling volume was absorbed during shallow adjustment phases.
The Core is Recovery Resilience: More important than the peak itself is how quickly the market can recoup losses and maintain demand when a decline occurs.
Structural Change Monitoring: As long as shallow adjustments persist without evolving into deep declines, the on-chain and supply-demand structures remain stable.
Simply applying past cycle crash values to the current situation is difficult.
In an institution-led market, the key is confirming the speed of recovery by whether demand quickly absorbs supply each time prices fall.After the sharp rise in Bitcoin, chasing the peak has already entered a loss zone, while the pattern of failure to rebound in coins that surged and then plunged is repeating. Why do both positions bought at the peak and low-priced positions bought after a sharp drop incur losses? The original text is a record observing cases of continuous decline after a sharp rise in certain coins. RAVE, BSB, LAB, BEAT, BICO, etc., showed a continuous downtrend after a strong rise, and both peak chasers and low-priced buyers who judged the drop as excessive suffered losses. This should be interpreted not as an issue with individual stocks but as a change in fund behavior appearing in the cross-market transmission structure. The key is distinguishing the nature of the funds. Real demand funds wait until fundamentals and liquidity conditions are confirmed, while short-term speculative funds enter and exit following momentum. The current market is led by the latter, and when a pullback occurs after a rise, speculative funds move to the next momentum rather than supporting existing stocks. Therefore, the drop after a sharp rise is likely not a simple correction but a signal of fund withdrawal I used to especially like picking stocks that had fallen a lot.
I thought something that dropped 50% was cheaper than something that dropped 10%.
Later, I realized this idea is actually quite dangerous.
Because a 50% drop doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap.
Sometimes it just means it went from expensive to normal.
It might even not have finished falling yet.
So now, when the US stock market adjusts, I actually start observing those stocks that haven't fallen much.
Why?
Because truly strong assets usually attract capital during market panic.
They don't necessarily stay completely unfallen.
But after falling, they tend to recover faster.
This shows the market still recognizes their value.
For example, if a company's fundamentals haven't changed, profits haven't significantly declined, and the industry trend remains the same, but it gets dragged down due to a market correction.
I will study this seriously.
Instead of immediately thinking "opportunity is here" just because a stock has halved.
Investing is actually very harsh.
The market won't rise just because you think it's cheap.
Prices ultimately have to return to fundamentals.
The crypto world is the same.
A shitcoin dropping from 10 to 1 looks like a 90% drop.
But if the project is no longer used by anyone, that 1 might still be expensive.
Conversely, a truly funded, narrative-driven, and liquid asset, even if it only drops 20%, might be more worth paying attention to than a 90% dropped junk coin.
So now I increasingly focus on "strength and weakness."
How much it falls isn't the most important.
What matters is whether anyone is willing to buy after the fall. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Just glanced at my phone during a meeting and saw Cige's analysis, which gave me chills down my spine.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.32%, the highest since 2007, and the 10-year yield has also reached 4.72%. Honestly, I didn’t quite understand the data at first glance, but then it hit me—the world's safest asset is getting more expensive, driven by the erosion of the US dollar's credit. Japan, the UK, and China are all reducing their US Treasury holdings, overseas buyers are retreating, and new debt issuance can only be absorbed by domestic funds, pushing costs higher.
For $BTC, it’s definitely being suppressed in the short term; in a high interest rate environment, funds are flowing into US Treasuries—who’s left to support it? But in the medium term, the new highs in Treasury yields themselves signal that the dollar’s credit is collapsing and de-dollarization is accelerating. These two forces coexist: short term focuses on interest rates, medium term on credit.
I still hold long ETH positions, bought at 1880, currently with some floating profit but haven’t moved them. I missed selling BEAT and SNDK earlier, so this time I’m holding to see how things unfold. Cige says the direction hasn’t changed, just the rhythm. Honestly, I don’t fully get it, and even pondering it doesn’t clarify much... Do you think buying US Treasuries now is safer than buying BTC? 😅
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #$PUMP Honestly, when I saw Ansem's call for $PUMP, my first reaction was "Here we go again?" But after taking a closer look at the data, I was genuinely a bit shocked. He said PUMP's current circulating market cap is only $1 billion, but the platform holds $2 billion in cash reserves, which means the price-to-earnings ratio is less than 2.8 — what does that mean? Even a random traditional industry company isn't this cheap, let alone a crypto project that can earn $30-40 million per month. But here's the problem: why is the market giving such a low valuation? Is it really bias, or is there something everyone else understands that I don't? Anyway, when he first called it, the price was 0.001675, now it's 0.002544, so it has indeed risen quite a bit, but it's still far from the all-time high. Is this wave really value discovery or just another batch of retail investors getting rekt? The most outrageous claim is that he says PUMP will enter the top ten market caps within two years — the current top ten threshold must be several tens of billions of dollars, right? How many times would it have to multiply from $1 billion to get there? But on the other hand, Pump.fun is indeed one of the most profitable machines in the crypto space, with tens of thousands of new coins launched on it every day, and it can rake in fees no matter how the market moves. But platform profits and token price increases are two different things, everyone understands that. Also, don't forget, this platform was previously heavily criticized by the community for its tokenized proxy issuance, which was said to cause "unnecessary PVP competition" and was eventually forced to shut down. To be blunt, who dares to bet real money on a KOL's "two-year promise"?BTC rises based on institutional approval, so what drives ETH up? The two leaders are facing different challenges.
$BTC is currently around 64,132, up only 0.9% in 24 hours. It’s close to a key level, but funds are very restrained. BTC’s market cap is 1.287 trillion, with 24-hour volume at 20.3 billion and a turnover rate of about 1.6%. This is typical institutional allocation rhythm—no chasing short-term sentiment, waiting for signals from the dollar, U.S. bonds, and ETFs. So BTC’s real question is simple: is there another batch of big money willing to buy?
$ETH is in a more awkward position at 1,896 USD, up only 0.3% in 24 hours. Market cap is 228.8 billion, volume 5.9 billion, turnover rate about 2.6%, which is actually higher than BTC, but the absolute volume is too small. This shows there’s neither incremental hot money coming in to speculate nor strong fundamentals supporting the price. ETH can’t keep living by "rising with BTC"; it has to prove there are real users on-chain: if real demand like DeFi locked value, Gas consumption, stablecoin activity, and app revenue don’t recover, ETH will easily be treated as a high-beta BTC shadow asset—rising slower and falling harder.
In short, BTC’s issue is whether more funds will buy in; ETH’s issue is whether there’s more economic activity using it. Prices hover around 64,000 and 1,900, but their upward logics have long diverged.
This is just a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.Chainlink $LINK
Chainlink sits at an interesting intersection between crypto infrastructure and traditional finance. Its oracle network provides critical data and connectivity for DeFi, while tokenized real world assets increasingly require reliable infrastructure. The long term thesis is therefore tied to blockchain adoption rather than one application. The key question is value capture. Growing usage does not automatically mean proportional token demand. LINK becomes more compelling $LINK After an initial panic-driven plunge, $MSTR quickly rallied, rapidly forming a rebound within a short cycle. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears directly pressed down to the repair boundary at the opening low.
On the 15-minute chart, after a sharp surge, the first bearish candle appeared as a pullback, with short-term volatility narrowing between the rapid high and the probing low.
In the market, chips completed a quick turnover during the sharp drop phase; the panic selling pressure from the early session was quickly absorbed, but the momentum of follow-up buying slowed down.
The sharp drop at the open confirmed a local liquidity vacuum, while the subsequent short squeeze pullback pushed the price back into the structural confirmation range.
If the pullback stabilizes and breaks through the intraday rebound high, the short-term short squeeze structure will continue, and the upside space is expected to extend further toward the previous dense chip zone.
If the 15-minute pullback breaks below the early session rebound starting point, the sharp rally will be deemed a liquidity extraction, and the market will retest the support validity at the opening low.
Currently, the price is stuck at the position where the initial advantage is exhausted; the depth of the second pullback will directly falsify or confirm the sustainability of the rebound.
Next, it is necessary to observe whether the first bearish pullback on the 15-minute chart can stabilize with reduced volume above the rebound midpoint.
#Strategy上周出售3.34亿美元股票，提高美元储备 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 Even if it means bearing an additional 10% cost, investors are rushing to overseas markets to leverage and participate in the game. Ordinary overseas investors are aggressively buying overseas depositary receipts of domestic companies and high-leverage products. Behind this phenomenon, signals of a bubble are gradually emerging.
In past speculative markets, this group’s enthusiasm for high-volatility, high-leverage tools has repeatedly challenged the understanding of professional institutions.
Cross-border trading statistics show that in July alone, the scale of their purchases directed at overseas markets was considerable. Among this large-scale cross-border capital flow, the most puzzling behavior for institutions is the massive spending on overseas depositary receipts of their own country’s semiconductor giants in foreign markets.
Clearly, in the domestic market, one can buy the corresponding assets at par without incurring extra costs. Yet many participants are willing to accept significant premiums and enter the overseas market at high prices.
Many industry insiders directly criticize this behavior, saying that paying extra costs to snatch overseas receipts of the same company lacks rational logic and is a typical sign of market bubble formation.
Even more alarming is the market’s frenzied pursuit of high-leverage tools.
In the July overseas buying rankings, leveraged products occupied four spots. Among them, the triple-leveraged product focused on the semiconductor sector became the most purchased variety.
Repeated fluctuations in the domestic market have worn down many investors’ patience, prompting many traders to shift overseas—not to hedge or defend, but to chase more volatile and riskier trading instruments.
This approach of merely changing trading venues while maintaining an aggressive strategy is a very typical reflection of the speculative mindset of ordinary participants in the late cycle.
Some industry researchers point out an ironic reality: even after switching to overseas markets, their capital bets remain concentrated in AI hardware and the semiconductor supply chain. Ironically, these sectors have already undergone a deep correction in the domestic market.
After suffering losses in domestic trading, many did not reassess the industry cycle and valuation levels. Instead, they chose to switch trading channels, further increase leverage, and hope to recover all losses through a sharp rally.
From past occurrences of premium phenomena to the current high-premium takeover behavior in overseas markets, the consistent frenzy of retail funds combined with widespread use of high-leverage tools often signals that market sentiment has reached a cyclical peak, making a sharp price correction likely to follow.
When market participants are willing to pay obvious premiums to hold the same company’s assets and buy high-multiple leveraged products as hot targets, does this represent the peak of faith in the sector’s rally, or is it the last round of retail-driven excitement before large funds gradually exit?
Faced with the temptation of premiums and the profit illusions brought by leverage, how should discipline in trading be maintained with $BTC $ETH $SNDK $BTC and $ETH Safe-Haven Capital Flow Analysis
Currently, the safe-haven funds brought by the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not massively flowed into $BTC and $ETH, which are classified as risk assets. When geopolitical panic occurs, short-term safe-haven buying rarely actively flows into crypto.
$BTC spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, with institutional funds actively reducing exposure to crypto assets. Facing a macro environment of rising inflation and higher U.S. Treasury yields, short-term allocation willingness is weak. $ETH-ETF outflows are smaller, with relatively mild capital divergence. Staking and hoarding coins are long-term strategies, not short-term safe-haven capital inflows. This type of capital does not move quickly with short-term geopolitical news but focuses more on multi-month asset allocation cycles.
The existing on-exchange capital safe-haven path is more about withdrawing from highly volatile altcoins and returning to the two major mainstream assets, $BTC and $ETH. This is an internal capital rotation within the crypto market, a sector rotation, not new external safe-haven capital entering. The scale of this internal capital switch is limited, only providing some resilience to the market and is unlikely to drive a trend upward.
#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #OKX预言家第二季正式上线 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 US tech stocks collectively fell in pre-market trading, with storage and optical communication sectors suffering the worst declines. The Nasdaq dropped 0.32%, the S&P 500 fell 0.52%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.51%. SanDisk fell 4.19%, Seagate Technology dropped 5.11%, Western Digital declined 5.23%, and Micron Technology also fell. With this momentum before the market opens, will tonight's opening be even worse? Friends, is this a case of overselling or has the market really peaked? Trump just confirmed: currently, there are no ongoing negotiations with Iran, and the maritime blockade continues.
The Strait of Hormuz still appears navigable for now, but the real trouble is—the market has already started pricing in the possibility of a "renewed escalation."
Don't underestimate this place; about one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes through here.
So the next thing to watch is: oil prices.
If the situation stabilizes, the crude oil risk premium will drop, energy stocks might give back gains, and risk assets could get a breather.
But if tensions continue to rise and oil prices surge again, it won't just be a story about energy stocks.
Oil price ↑ → inflation expectations ↑ → rate cut expectations ↓ → US Treasury yields ↑ → BTC and US stocks come under pressure.
So right now, I'm not in a hurry to guess whether BTC will rise or fall.
First, keep an eye on crude oil and US Treasuries.
As long as these two start to spiral out of control, BTC having a good time on its own is basically not that easy. $BTC #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 The 30-year US Treasury yield hits a new high again, will the US stock market fall?
Logically, as the long-term US Treasury yield rises as the risk-free rate, the returns on risk assets become less attractive. Therefore, funds flow from risk assets to long-term US Treasuries, causing risk asset prices to drop.
Observing the past year, when the 30-year US Treasury yield breaks new highs, the US stock market does experience declines, but these drops are short-lived.
This may be because funds flow from risk assets to the 30-year US Treasury, driving up its price and thus lowering its yield.
So we see, several times in the past year: shortly after the 30-year US Treasury yield reaches a new high and then starts to decline, the US stock market first falls and then continues to rise again. #财报观察员: Xiaomi's Q2 earnings are out, is the automotive segment saving the day or is the phone business holding it back?
The leader has something to say
Xiaomi's Q2 earnings are out, with revenue at 108.9 billion and net profit at 9.46 billion, exceeding expectations. Automotive deliveries continue to grow, while the phone side still faces cost and competitive pressures.
Xiaomi's growth story is indeed changing. Automotive has become the second growth engine, while phones have become a drag. With rising storage costs and weak demand, phone shipments are under pressure, but premiumization is advancing and the structure is being optimized.
Comparing the two lines, the market's valuation logic has also changed. Xiaomi used to be a phone company, valued based on hardware. Now the automotive business supports expectations; although it is still burning cash, the market is willing to give a premium to this new business.
For Bitcoin, Xiaomi's earnings report itself is not directly related. But Xiaomi is a barometer of Chinese tech assets; if sentiment in Hong Kong and US stocks is warm after the earnings, the spillover effect on crypto is positive. If automotive losses widen and trigger sell-offs, the contraction in risk appetite will transmit over.
The SPCX base position remains in place, Bitcoin continues to rise from a high short position.
Wait for the right position to enter again. $BTC $SNDK $ETH
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.I actually quite like market corrections.
Because when the market is rising, all stocks seem to look good.
Indexes go up.
Tech stocks go up.
AI goes up.
Even some stocks with average fundamentals can fly along.
At this time, it's hard to tell who is truly strong.
But once the market starts to correct, the situation immediately changes.
Some fall very quickly.
Some fall a little and someone steps in to buy.
And some stocks barely fall at all.
At times like this, strength and weakness become clear.
So recently with the US stock market fluctuating, I don’t just focus on the indexes.
I start to record:
Which stocks are resistant to falling.
Which stocks no one buys when they drop.
Which stocks can quickly recover after falling.
These details are actually more valuable than the index’s rise and fall.
Because when the next rally truly starts, capital often prioritizes returning to the strongest directions.
This is the same in the crypto space.
When BTC is strong, altcoins don’t necessarily rise immediately.
But if BTC stabilizes and a batch of altcoins start to continuously increase in volume and price, it indicates that risk appetite may be expanding.
So now I especially like doing one thing:
Observing.
Not trading every day.
But observing every day.
Writing down the strong ones.
Writing down the weak ones.
When the market truly chooses a direction, the list is already in hand.
This is much more comfortable than suddenly seeing a big bullish candle and then scrambling to find targets.
Trading is not about improvisation.
Preparation itself is part of trading."Exhaustion is the best signal for bottom building"
The market bottom is never bought into existence; it is created by the inability to sell.
Everyone is watching ETF inflows and whale accumulation, trying to catch "who's coming" amid the noise of candlesticks. But what truly determines the depth is always those who wave the white flag and have no choice but to exit. Leveraged liquidations, fund redemptions, miners' electricity bills, the final ultimatum from bankrupt consortia—they sell Bitcoin not because their faith collapses, but because they must pay cash tomorrow. When this batch of supply clears, selling pressure fundamentally dries up.
Therefore, the real bottom always shows a stubborn appearance of "ignoring bad news."
You can observe the term structure of volatility. When bad news hits, if short-term panic premiums stop soaring and put options no longer demand sky-high "insurance premiums," it indicates the derivatives market has sensed the dissipation of tail risk. You can track miners' wallets; when their aggregation and transfer frequency suddenly slows down while the total network hashrate quietly recovers, it means the most inefficient physical sell pressure has been eliminated, and the remaining supply is calm and controllable.
You can even look at the community. When bad news appears, prices only slightly move sideways, and no one in the group asks "can we bottom-fish?" The conversation drifts toward technical upgrades or everyday matters—this is the best signal. Because the last bulls have given up shouting, and the market enters a liquidity vacuum.
The most extreme confirmation often comes from cleaning up on-chain wreckage. When bankrupt entities' addresses merge and zero out their last dusty UTXOs, and "systematic selling" ends completely in the physical world, the price gains true freedom.
The bottom at this moment is often very boring. News remains pessimistic, sentiment stays cold, but the candlestick is like a rock, unmoved by bad news pounding.
Because those eager to sell no longer hold any coins. The rest are either playing dead or firmly believing. At this time, the market doesn't need heroic rallies, only time—to let the last bit of panic slowly evaporate, to let exhaustion be confirmed by the price itself.
Silent sideways movement is the strongest bottom building. When the price finally stops listening to bad news, it is the deepest silence before dawn.
---#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 $BTC $ETH $SNDK Summary of why $SNDK opened with a waterfall drop
Live trading at @玩的就是实盘 九总
1. Immediate short-term trigger
The early session rally was purely driven by institutional research report sentiment speculation. After the surge, trading volume quickly shrank, bulls lacked sustained capital to follow through, and profit-taking at high levels concentrated, causing a pullback and decline.
Short-term resistance at 1683 is unbroken; bearish selling pressure continues to release. Breaking below 1664 will accelerate the decline.
2. Valuation bubble and heavy profit-taking pressure
The stock price surged sharply this year, with the market prematurely pricing in NAND price increases for the next two years. Valuation is at a historical extreme. Once sector sentiment weakens, high-level floating profits will be collectively realized, directly hammering the price down.
3. Core bearish factor at the cycle inflection point (root cause of long-term decline)
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia are collectively expanding production. In the second half of 2027, massive new capacity will be released, reversing the NAND supply shortage. The flash memory price rally will peak, gross margins will sharply decline afterward, and capital will preemptively sell off to avoid risk.
4. Earnings expectations fall short
Although current financial reports are impressive, next quarter’s revenue and gross margin guidance are below market optimistic expectations. "Good news priced in upon shipment," capital is bearish on future profit growth, continuously selling and driving the decline.
5. Sector linkage drag
The storage sector’s price movements are highly correlated. Weakness in Micron and Hynix will lead Sandisk to fall in sync. Capital collectively withdraws from the highly volatile storage sector, amplifying the decline.Exchange liquidity is warming up, market trading volume is expanding, $BTC leads the trend, $ETH shows resilience
If you've been watching the market recently,
once the market heats up,
the first thing to change is often not the price
but the trading volume.
Exchange liquidity is recovering,
buy and sell orders are thickening,
large orders are becoming active.
This usually indicates that funds are willing to return to the market.
At such times,
$BTC is generally the first to lead the trend.
The reason is simple:
it is the market's barometer.
When many funds enter,
the first thing they look at is $BTC.
When $BTC strengthens,
the market feels
okay,
the overall direction isn't that bad,
and then the sentiment gradually spreads to $ETH
and then to other sectors.
So many rallies
seem like altcoins suddenly explode,
but usually $BTC stabilizes the market first.
$ETH is characterized by greater elasticity.
When liquidity starts to warm up,
funds no longer only want to buy the safest assets,
they begin to seek higher-yielding directions.
At this time, $ETH easily regains attention
because it has both the security of a mainstream asset
and the growth potential of its ecosystem.
It’s not as wild as many small coins,
but not as stable as $BTC either.
It’s somewhat in the middle,
riskier,
but with greater opportunity.
However, increased trading volume is not always a good thing.
If it’s just short-term leverage rushing in,
prices rise quickly,
and liquidations happen fast.
Truly healthy liquidity
should be an increase in spot buying
with sustained volume expansion,
not a sudden surge in volume over one or two days.
So, to judge whether the market can sustain its move, Recently, there has been an issue in the US stock market that I think is more noteworthy than the index decline.
That is, everyone's expectations for AI are just too unanimous.
When AI stocks were continuously rising earlier, almost everyone knew this story.
Computing power demand growth.
Data center expansion.
Increased chip demand.
AI commercialization.
Of course, none of these logics are wrong.
But what the market fears most is not that the logic is wrong, but that everyone already knows it in advance.
Because when good news is already known by everyone, stock prices often have already reflected it in advance.
This is also why I wasn't particularly excited when I saw stocks like Nvidia, Micron, and SanDisk rising all the way earlier.
I know they are good.
But what I want to know more is:
Has this price already priced in all the "good"?
These two questions are completely different.
So recently, as the US stock market started to fluctuate, I actually think it's a normal process.
Let valuations come down a bit.
Let market sentiment cool off.
Let companies that truly have profits, cash flow, and competitiveness be filtered out again.
This kind of market is actually more suitable for research.
The crypto space is the same.
BTC recently outperforming altcoins doesn't necessarily mean altcoins have no chance.
It might just be that the funds are still in the first phase.
Buy BTC first.
After the trend is confirmed, then slowly spread to other directions.
So now I'm not in a hurry to find the next skyrocketing stock, nor am I rushing to find the next 100x coin.
First, watch the funds.
Funds never lie.
They just sometimes hide a bit deeper. NVIDIA has recently started to adjust, and the voices in the market have suddenly increased.
Some say AI has peaked.
Some say the tech stock bubble is about to burst.
Others are starting to compare the current market to the internet bubble.
I think these judgments are too hasty.
It's normal for stocks to adjust after rising a lot.
What really matters is whether the company's fundamentals have deteriorated.
If NVIDIA's orders suddenly drop sharply and AI computing power demand begins to shrink significantly, then of course it's worth worrying about.
But if it's just that the valuation is too high and funds are cashing out profits first, I think it's a completely different matter.
That's also why I increasingly like to separate "company" and "price" when looking at stocks now.
A good company doesn't necessarily mean the current price is worth buying.
A stock falling doesn't mean the company suddenly got worse.
For example, if a company's profit growth over the next three years is very certain, but the market previously gave it a very high valuation, then an adjustment is actually a market re-pricing.
I am more willing to study this kind of adjustment.
Not just run away when I see a drop.
Actually, Bitcoin is the same.
If BTC falls from 64,000 to 60,000, I wouldn't immediately think the market is over.
I would look at why it fell.
Is it capital withdrawal?
Is it a change in the macro environment?
Or is it simply profit-taking?
Different reasons call for completely different actions.
So now I increasingly dislike the phrase:
"A drop is bad news."
No.
Price is just the result.
What really matters is why the price changed.
Once you understand this, many market situations aren't so scary.Alarms are blasting overhead; the worst thing in a fire scene isn’t the thick smoke, but those reckless fools charging in without regard for their lives. Currently, the $ETH ignition point is at 1912.6, with the Bollinger upper band at 1913.6 acting like a glowing red fire shutter, firmly pressing down the upward channel—this isn’t a breakout, it’s the ceiling dropping sparks downward.
RSI is at 60.2, seemingly still with some strength, but to me, that’s like an oxygen tank reading only 60% left. You might think you can hold on a bit longer, but in a fire, the remaining supply is never for gambling—it’s for escaping. The Bollinger lower band at 1890.5 is the real load-bearing wall; once this wall cracks, below is a collapse zone with no safety net.
Entering now? It’s like diving into the blazing core with an empty breathing apparatus—you think you’re bottom fishing, but you’re actually acting as a human fire extinguisher for the market. This rebound is propped up from the 1890 firebreak, and when it hits the upper band, it’s pushed back to its original form—a typical smoldering structure: high surface temperature but full of hidden flames inside.
My tactic is simple: hold the lower band, wait for a pullback to confirm support, then consider setting up the water cannon position. Aggressive traders can defend within the 1893 to 1908 range, but must weld their stop loss firmly at 1885—that’s the last fireproof brick wall in the fire scene; if it breaks, all tactics are useless.
Don’t be greedy with targets; 1918 is the first water cannon suppression point, 1924 is the second defensive line extension. Flames that can’t break through 1913 will inevitably be pushed back. Remember, a firefighter’s first lesson isn’t how to extinguish fire, but how to get out alive.
- Asset: $ETH 🧯
- Entry: 1893 - 1908
- TP1: 1918
- TP2: 1924
- SL: 1885
#MarketOverloadWeek #NoChasingHighsInTheFire