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$SKHX The smart money direction has shifted from divergence to clearly bearish.
The swing wallet that previously held about 232k USD long positions continues to sell and has now completely exited; meanwhile, a high-ranking wallet holds about 403k USD short positions. The mid-term wallet still retains about 111k USD long positions, but the scale is already weak.
Short-term funds have completed their withdrawal, and large short positions are beginning to dominate the structure. Due to the significant difference in trading rhythms between long and short sources, I am temporarily not including $SKHX in the live portfolio, only treating it as a key watchlist target for the next round. There is widespread misunderstanding in the market regarding net inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). One trader pointed out that although eight out of nine positions in his portfolio were in profit, he still chose to short one of the positions, citing that the actual liquidity for BTC and ETH was not as optimistic as the surface data suggested. This view suggests that a significant portion of current net ETF inflows comes from internal institutional asset restructuring and short-term arbitrage funds, rather than the long-term allocation buying expected by the market. This type of short-term hot money typically has the characteristic of "rapid in-and-out," chasing short-term trends and not staying in the market for long. Analysis of BTC-ETF's capital structure shows signs of pension accounts and long-term allocation funds gradually building positions, but the buying pace is extremely restrained, usually entering in small batches during price pullbacks and pausing buying when prices rise rapidly to avoid chasing highs. In contrast, the inflow of funds into ETH-ETFs is more reflected in trading capital participation, with a noticeably stronger speculative nature. Once overall market sentiment weakens, ETH-ETF funds are expected to withdraw significantly faster than BTC-ETF. Industry observers further point out that there is no immediate causal relationship between ETF capital inflows and price increases. If there is significant selling pressure simultaneously in the spot market, the ETF's buying force will be completely offset by spot selling, resulting in a divergence phenomenon where "funds continue to flow in but the price remains sideways." For future references on how to verify the authenticity of capital flowsIn an altcoin crash, bottom-following is statistically a high probability of loss. How do you distinguish between stocks whose rebound expectations have already been priced in and those that haven't yet been priced in? During the recent sharp decline, $BEAT fell -24.26% and $H dropped -23.55%, ending the buying momentum chasing record highs. $APR showed a gradual downward trend, $KAITO lost upward momentum, and the $BICO that had previously driven the rally also reversed direction. It is more accurate to interpret this correction not as a negative factor for a single stock, but as a process of reducing risk appetite across the altcoin sector. - Momentum signals: The sharp decline in $BEAT and $H suggests that leveraged and chase buying positions have been concentrated in highly volatile stocks. - Risk signals: The simultaneous weakness of $KAITO and $BICO indicates a slowdown in new capital inflows and the exhaustion of upward momentum for individual stocks. - Market Structure: Altcoin bears act as a pathway to facilitate the movement of funds into BTC and ETH, driven by the relative strength of BTC compared to altcoins. Let's look at the core data first: at its peak, the daily trading volume of South Korea's domestic crypto market once approached 12% of the KOSPI of the Korean stock market, with the premium remaining high for a long time. Nationwide crypto speculation and young people leveraging to buy fake coins were the norm; Now, trading volume on the five major local exchanges has shrunk to only about 1% of the stock market's turnover, with volume plunging nearly 90% year-on-year, and 80% of retail investors have stopped frequent trading. A large amount of retail capital was drawn away by the surging domestic semiconductor stocks this year, withdrawing from the crypto market and rushing into the stock market, which is the core reason for the cooling of the bubble. There is another key signal on the capital side: stablecoins have been experiencing net outflows for 18 consecutive months, with over $10.4 billion in Korean won continuously transferred from domestic exchanges to overseas platforms. The domestic speculative enthusiasm has cooled rapidly, but speculative funds are only outflowing and have not completely disappeared; they have gone to overseas platforms to trade high-leverage derivatives. The 'kimchi' premium has remained near zero for a long time, and even frequent reverse 'kimchi premiums' have occurred, indicating that the previous nationwide coin scramble is gone, and the most frenzied bubble cycle has ended. Ongoing tightening of regulations has further burst the local bubble: the latest August regulations cover all transactions with no amount threshold, significantly increasing compliance costs, and local exchanges cannot provide contract leverage, making it difficult for the local market to recreate the frenzied speculation atmosphere of the past. But it cannot be said that speculation has completely disappeared: the speculative nature of Korean retail investors has not changed; it is only that funds have temporarily switched tracks. If the Korean stock market weakens or the crypto market experiences a strong trend, this batch of funds will follow$SNDK has finally come down
The short positions of Wang Duanniao probably don't need to be liquidated anymore
Yesterday, I chased a short position at $1625
Immediately got stuck after opening
Floating loss of several tens of points
I thought the memory super cycle was not over yet
Prepared to hold the position
But today it dropped back to the cost line
If nothing unexpected happens
It should start to be profitable from now on
-------------------------
I have always believed
SNDK has not broken through $2400
$MU has not broken through $1300
$SKHYNIX has not broken through the previous high of $2000
None of these indicate a continuation of the memory super cycle
The trend ended during the last collective crash of over 50%
No matter how much it fluctuates now
It's just a rebound after an oversell
And it is constantly being propped up by positive news
When the positive news materializes, it turns into negative
Moreover
These semiconductor companies have long since priced in several years of future stock value
Every supply agreement for future AI infrastructure
Has already been factored into the current stock price
Cherish every opportunity to short semiconductors.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 Brothers, a notable macro signal has just appeared: the 30-year US Treasury bond yield has surpassed the 2007 peak. This development is not merely a market shock but also reflects a thought-provoking reality: even the world's "safest asset" is being sold off. Large capital is leaving the traditional safe haven channel and seeking new destinations. The story becomes more dramatic when looking at the bigger picture. If long-term US bonds are no longer favored The abnormal ONE has been cleared, but trust cannot be restored just by pressing the rollback button.
Harmony has confirmed: Shard 0 and Shard 1 rolled back to August 11, 23:25:37 UTC, to remove the attacker’s illegal minting of 2.385 trillion ONE; meanwhile, over 109,000 user transactions will be permanently discarded.
Market interpretation is bearish for ONE. The abnormal minting being cleared does alleviate supply shock; however, the full network rollback directly impacts on-chain finality and user trust, putting pressure on ecosystem applications, exchange deposits and withdrawals, and holder confidence.
In the short term, focus on three things: network recovery progress, the pace of deposit and withdrawal reopening, and whether ONE shows volume-supported buying. Technical fixes do not equal immediate trust restoration.
Source: Wu Shuo
#ONE #Crypto100WMeta faces lawsuits from 29 states with a theoretical penalty exposure of up to $1.4 trillion, driving Mag7 funds to short-term risk aversion and exit. The core issue lies in whether judicial accountability will completely restructure the platform's recommendation algorithms and monetization efficiency.
On Tuesday, Meta's stock price fell 3%, leading the Mag7 decline list, reflecting that event risk is spreading from a single legal lawsuit to a contraction in risk appetite across large tech stocks. The expected fine range mentioned in the California trial, from $193 billion to $1.4 trillion, directly raised the tail risk pricing cost in the derivatives market.
The factors driving the current market are ranked as follows: the risk of judicial precedent forcing product design changes (infinite scroll and recommendation algorithms), the expected squeeze on free cash flow from potential civil fines, and reputational volatility triggered by management testifying in court. The previous $942 million penalty imposed by New Mexico confirmed the feasibility of the public nuisance theory in regulatory accountability.
A bullish or rebound scenario is based on the premise that litigation risk has been priced in prematurely. If the California federal district judge hints during the five-week trial that the final compensation is closer to the New Mexico level and avoids the extreme hundreds of billions range, or if restrictive measures are limited to age verification only, it will trigger short covering. The variable to watch is the evidence presented in court regarding the cost of algorithm modification. The signal that this scenario fails is if the judge explicitly supports an injunction requiring the removal of core addictive features.
A bearish or continued valuation restructuring scenario stems from regulatory headwinds impacting the business model foundation. If the judge ultimately rules that Meta must remove infinite scroll and content recommendation algorithms, it will directly weaken user time and advertising exposure efficiency, causing institutional positions to continue adjusting. The variable to watch is the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals' subsequent stance on the applicability of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The signal that this scenario fails is the court ruling that Section 230 fully exempts product design liability.
Against the backdrop of about 14 states filing separate lawsuits and peers like Google and Snap facing over 3,000 claims, the premium on a single tech giant is shifting toward systemic industry compliance costs. Historical data from the record $206 billion tobacco settlement indicates that the endgame of judicial accountability often results in a long-term increase in cash flow discount rates.
The most important variables to observe in the next 7 days are the live testimonies of Mark Zuckerberg and Adam Mosseri during the five-week trial, as well as the cross-month term structure adjustments of implied volatility for Mag7 in the derivatives market.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 #SPCX持股结构曝光，哈佛13F重仓 Xiaomi's single-quarter revenue has returned to the scale of 100 billion, but the significant pressure on adjusted net profit has caused the market to be caught between growth narratives and profit realities.
$XIAOMI stock closed at HKD 26.18 after the earnings release, with daily trading volume expanding to 179 million shares, and funds completing turnover within a narrow range of HKD 25.22 to 26.54.
The gross margin of mobile hardware was squeezed down to 8.5% due to upstream cost increases such as storage, while the automotive business delivered over 100,000 units with a 19.2% gross margin, but the innovation segment still recorded a quarterly loss of 2.6 billion yuan.
The profit erosion caused by hardware cost inflation is offset by gross margin recovery from the automotive business scale expansion, directly determining the degree of divergence in risk appetite in the market.
If the subsequent monthly delivery pace can support the full-year target of 550,000 vehicles, the valuation midpoint is expected to test the resistance at HKD 28 with the backing of buyback funds; if the per-vehicle loss narrowing falls short of expectations, this upward momentum will fail.
If the cost pressure on the mobile side continues to spread into the third quarter, and monthly delivery volume slides into the range lowered by institutions, position hedging may prompt the stock price to retest the support level at HKD 25.
When the automotive business's gross margin improvement cannot cover ongoing R&D and channel investments, the existing valuation support logic will be broken.
Going forward, the key focus is to observe whether the monthly delivery pace can be maintained within the intensity range required to sprint toward the full-year target.
#美国财政部推进GENIUS稳定币规则 #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 18)
According to liquidation data, the "dog trader" executed a textbook-level one-sided short squeeze on BTC from short to long cycles. Shorts controlled the market from the 1-hour mark, completely crushing the longs, with total liquidations exceeding $110 million — the largest liquidation volume among covered coins today.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $108,700 $18,000 $90,800
4 hours $54,077,900 $960,700 $53,117,200
12 hours $55,650,500 $1,221,000 $54,429,500
24 hours $110 million $3,883,300 $100 million
From the $BTC liquidation data, 1-hour short liquidations overwhelmed longs by 5.04 times, with the short squeeze unfolding at a nuclear blast intensity, liquidation volume at $108,700 — shorts dominated the short cycle, crushing longs directly; at 4 hours, shorts continued to crush longs by 55 times, with the squeeze intensity exploding at nuclear blast level, liquidation volume soaring from $108,700 to $54,077,900 — shorts exerted full force, completely crushing longs; at 12 hours, shorts still crushed longs by 44.6 times, squeeze momentum slightly weakened but remained extremely strong, liquidation volume surged to $55,650,500 — shorts kept harvesting; at 24 hours, shorts continued to crush, with short liquidations at $100 million versus longs at $3,883,300, a ratio of 25.7 times, cumulative liquidation exceeded $110 million — the "dog trader" completed the full path of "full-force short squeeze in short cycles → sustained momentum decline in long cycles" on BTC, with shorts controlling from 1 hour, but the crushing ratio shrinking from 55 times at 4 hours to 25.7 times at 24 hours, indicating squeeze energy is continuously waning and longs and shorts are returning to balance. This is a textbook-level one-sided short squeeze, but the direction could reverse at any time. Everyone should manage positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Shorts have continuously crushed longs across all BTC cycles with highly consistent direction, but the 4H to 24H ratio narrowed from 55 times to 25.7 times, indicating squeeze momentum is waning and reversal risk is high; 4-hour and 12-hour liquidations account for 99% of the daily total, showing extreme concentration and market volatility. Leverage is recommended to be reduced to below 3x, avoid blind shorting, strictly control positions and wait for clear direction.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 18
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously digesting the "old engine" stalling and the "new engine" ramping up — smartphone pressure, automotive rescue, US Treasury yield re-anchoring, and storage logic reshaping, four forces converging in the same time window.
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Earnings: Smartphones Down, Automotive Up
After market close on August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of ¥108.9 billion, adjusted net profit of ¥6.2 billion. Breakdown:
Smartphone business under full pressure. Shipments dropped 26.5% year-on-year from 42.4 million units to 31.2 million units, revenue fell to ¥42.1 billion. Storage chip price hikes suppressed global demand, but Xiaomi optimized product mix, pushing smartphone ASP to a record high of ¥1,351 — "selling less but at higher prices."
Automotive business is the biggest highlight. Smart electric vehicle revenue reached ¥23.9 billion, deliveries 104,199 units, up 28.2% year-on-year. However, automotive business has concerns — gross margin dropped sharply from 26.4% last year to 19.2%, operating loss of ¥2.6 billion. Goldman Sachs sees Q2 as Xiaomi's "profit trough," expecting a turning point in H2 driven by cost margin improvements and new car launches.
"Smartphones support the family, automotive starts the business" — Xiaomi's transformation continues.
📈 30-Year US Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007
On August 18, the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, the highest since 2007.
Three pressures combined: US fiscal deficit continues to expand, CBO forecasts debt interest payments to rise to $2.1 trillion by 2036; AI investment boom drives massive corporate bond issuance, with August investment-grade bond issuance hitting a record high for the period; US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel.
The rise in long-term rates means the global risk asset valuation benchmark is being re-anchored. When the risk-free rate surpasses 5.3%, how long can tech stocks sustain their high valuations?
💾 SanDisk Rises Over 8%, Long-Term Agreements Reshape Storage Logic
SanDisk rose about 8% on Monday to $1,786.85, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 629%. JPMorgan resumed coverage with a $2,250 price target.
The core driver of this rally is long-term agreements (NBM long-term contracts): SanDisk has signed 10 long-term supply agreements with a minimum contract value of $93.9 billion, average contract duration over 4 years, supported by $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. The company has locked in about two-thirds of shipments for fiscal 2028.
SanDisk is shifting from a highly cyclical NAND supplier to a value-creation model driven by AI demand and secured by long-term agreements. When demand visibility extends from 3 months to over 4 years, the cycle logic is rewritten.
💎 Summary
Three things paint the same picture: Xiaomi's smartphone business is raising prices amid shrinking volume, automotive business is losing money while ramping up, the switch between old and new engines is still in a painful phase; the US Treasury market is telling the world with a 5.31% yield that fiscal discipline loosening is being repriced; SanDisk is trying to rewrite the storage industry's boom-bust cycle with $93.9 billion in long-term agreements. As the old engine stalls, risk-free rates re-anchor, and industry logic reshapes simultaneously — the August 2026 market is seeking new coordinates for the "post-AI era" pricing system. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 Reviewing today, mainly discussing the details of this $BTC long position.
Yesterday's daily candle closed quite strong, and today the price formed a triangle consolidation below the resistance level I drew. In a strong context, the sideways movement below resistance without a significant drop suggests to me that buyers are absorbing selling pressure, eventually leading to an upward breakout.
Therefore, before the market opened, when the price returned to the intraday discount zone, I opened a half position long.
The reason for only entering half is that the intraday remained in consolidation without obvious liquidity hunting. According to ICT's Po3 and Judas Swing concepts, when the intraday bias is bullish, liquidity might first be swept downward around the New York open before a real rally begins. So placing a stop loss below the intraday low at that time was not appropriate.
After the open, the price followed the US stock market down, taking out the intraday low, but quickly recovered after the break. For me, this was the second confirmation: the lower liquidity had been cleared, and the price stood back above the key level, so I added the remaining half position here.
Afterwards, the price showed strong momentum, surging directly to around 65,000. Today's long setup basically played out as expected.
However, the fulfillment of the long logic does not mean it is still suitable to blindly chase longs now.
Currently, the price has reached a higher-level resistance zone and is testing the long-term downtrend line. Although it briefly pierced upward intraday, there is no effective close above it yet, and RSI divergence signals have started to appear internally.
Next, I will focus on observing the daily candle closes over the next few days. First, let's talk about the key core conditions that must be met to hold above 70,000: First, the Federal Reserve has sent a clear signal of rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields are falling, and macro liquidity expectations are warming. Currently, the market is concerned that oil prices will drive up inflation, and rate cut expectations are repeatedly wavering. As long as high interest rate expectations persist, risk assets will find it difficult to achieve sustained major rallies. Second, funds from the US BTC spot ETF have shifted from continuous net outflows to stable net inflows, with institutional funds flowing back again. Recently, ETFs have been continuously flowing out, but institutions have not actively entered to buy shares. Without large incremental funds, it is difficult to drive prices sharply higher. Third, the market has effectively held the key resistance level of 65,000, opening upside space and driving overall market sentiment to recover. Currently, BTC is still fluctuating within a range, with most of the market trading among existing funds and no consensus on trending long positions. Regarding risk constraints: In the short term, ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, raising inflation concerns again. At this stage, the market classifies BTC as a risk asset, and geo-safe-haven funds have not flowed into the crypto market. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, it could easily lead to short-term selling pressure. Additionally, if the Fed minutes release a hawkish stance, the market may still test support again. A simple time dimension: short-term (within a few weeks): relying solely on current sentiment makes it difficult to directly reach 70,000; only the catalyst events mentioned above can have a chance for a rapid breakout; Mid-term (multi-month dimension): If monetary policy shifts, regulatory incentives are released, and institutional funds flow back, $70,000 is within reachRecently, an interesting phenomenon has been observed: a large number of traditional Bitcoin mining companies are no longer solely focused on mining coins; instead, they are flocking to engage in AI high-performance computing businesses. Over the past few years, many mining companies have shifted their computing power resources toward AI/HPC. In hindsight, this investment can be considered one of the better capital allocations in nearly a decade. After a significant correction in the Bitcoin market, with prices dropping by 45%, mining profits have been severely compressed. The mining hash price has plummeted from $63 per PH/s to $31.8. The total network computing power has also declined accordingly. Market stock price performance has shown a clear divergence: companies that have completed AI computing power transformation, such as Terrawulf, Iren, and Cipher Digital, have seen their stock prices double over the past year. Mining companies with AI/HPC contracts have valuation multiples reaching 12.3 times. In contrast, Mara Holdings, which has been slow to transform, has seen its stock price drop by 40%. Companies sticking purely to mining operations have valuations of only 5.9 times. The entire industry has cumulatively signed AI/HPC contracts totaling as much as $70 billion. The secondary market is also highly divided: although BTC ETFs have seen a brief inflow of funds, sustained inflows have not formed. On the ETH side, large holders are carrying significant short positions, while institutions continue to accumulate coins. The battle between bulls and bears remains intense. Regarding mining companies' transformation, in the short term, computing power shifting to supply AI will ease competitive pressure on Bitcoin mining. In the long term, however, it also plants uncertainty: if the AI business dividends fade later, will this massive computing power flow back to Bitcoin mining, and what impact will that have on the coin price 今天AI硬件这根回调，挺有意思。 截至美东时间约11:40： $SNDK -8.3%
$MU -7.0%
$LITE -9.5%
$AAOI -12.4%
$NVDA -2.4% 与此同时，纳指跌约1%，半导体指数跌约3.7%。 ① 基本面一天没变，估值先变了 昨天市场还在疯狂交易： AI CapEx → 存储缺货 → 光模块缺货。 今天突然全部被砸。 真正变化的是宏观。 10年美债收益率现在约 4.71%，30年一度冲到 5.33%附近；Brent原油重新来到90美元以上。 油价↑ → 通胀担忧↑ → 美债收益率↑。 对于高估值AI股来说，这套组合就是天然压制。 所以今天我不会因为一根大阴线就说： “AI逻辑结束了。” 但也不会觉得“基本面没变就必须抄底”。 ② 涨得越疯，回调的时候越狠 这个今天特别明显。 $NVDA 只跌约2.4%。 但是： $SNDK -8%
$MU -7%
$LITE -9%
$AAOI -12%。 为什么？ 因为过去几天这些票涨得太猛了。 SNDK昨天收在1786美元，今天最低直接到 1614美元。 AAOI今天从151美元附近一路砸到 134.5美元。$OKB contract upgraded today, but the price fell below $100: a textbook case of buying the expectation and selling the reality
OKB current price is 97.86, down 5.57% in one day, directly breaking through the psychological $100 barrier. The 7-day range is between 94.10 and $109.76, with a nearly 11% pullback from the high. Ironically, today is exactly the contract upgrade day, with minting and burning functions permanently removed, locking the supply at 21 million tokens. The positive news triggered a sell-off on the day of the announcement; this script is all too familiar.
After the 8.13 burn announcement, the price surged to 104 (+9), then steadily dropped back to $97.86. The news was already priced in, and the last buyers were retail investors attracted by the "BTC scarcity benchmark." Honestly, this kind of price movement doesn't surprise me at all.
Next, look at two key levels: the lower 94.10 is the 7-day low, and below that, the 95−98 range is a dense turnover zone. Breaking below means testing 94.10 again. On the upside, 100 has turned from support into resistance; failure to reclaim it confirms weakness. The real variables lie in Q3, with Exchange OS deployers staking OKB and the 1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund launching. That marks the shift in demand logic from "platform points" to "on-chain production assets," but these are slow-moving factors and won't save the short term.
So overall, clear positive news + breakdown = don't catch the falling knife. For long-term holders, wait for validation around 94−95; for short-term traders, wait to retake 94−95 before considering, and for short-term trades, wait to reclaim 100 before discussing further.📊 $APR Contract Liquidation Express (August 18)
According to liquidation data, Dogchuang completed a textbook-level one-sided short squeeze in APR—short sellers controlled the entire market from 1 hour onward, but as the time period lengthened, short squeezing momentum continued to weaken, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $570,000.
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $98,100, $24,400, $73,700
4 hours: $353,400, $118,300, $235,100
12 hours: $418,200, $174,000, $244,200
24 hours: $573,400, $265,900, $307,600
From $APR liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with the bears being 3.02 times the bulls. The short squeeze unfolded with explosive intensity, with liquidations totaling $98,100—shorts dominated the short-term market, and the bulls were directly crushed; The 4-hour bears continued to crush the market, with shorts at 1.99 times the bulls' level. The strength of short squeezes weakened significantly, and liquidations surged from 98,100 to $353,400—the bears were still controlling the market but were losing momentum, while the liquidations expanded but the multiples narrowed sharply; The 12-hour direction further weakened, with bears only slightly outperforming the bulls by 1.4 times. Short squeeze momentum continued to weaken, and forced liquidations surged to $418,200—bears are still harvesting but their strength is weakening, and bulls and bears are becoming more balanced; The 24-hour direction was almost even, with bears only slightly outperforming the bulls by 1.16 times. Short squeeze energy was nearly exhausted, and cumulative liquidations exceeded $573,400—Dog Farm completed the full path of "full-scale short-selling in the short cycle → sustained depletion of momentum in the long cycle" in APR. Bears controlled the market from 1 hour onward, but the crushing multiplier collapsed from 3.02 times to 1.16 times in 24 hours. Short squeeze energy was nearly exhausted, and bulls and bears are returning to equilibrium. This is a textbook-level trend of short-squeeze momentum exhaustion. Everyone should control their positions; the direction could reverse at any moment.
⚠️ Risk warning: Short liquidations across all APR cycles continue to crush long positions, with highly consistent direction. However, the 1H→24H multiples have narrowed from 3.02x to 1.16x, indicating a sharp decline in short squeezing momentum and a very high risk of direction reversal; 4-hour + 12-hour liquidations account for 99% of the total daily volume, with high concentration and extremely severe market volatility. It is recommended to reduce leverage to within 3 times; do not blindly chase short positions, strictly control positions, and wait for a clear direction.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 18
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is simultaneously digesting the stalling of the "old engine" and the climbing of the "new engine"—smartphone pressure, automobiles rescuing the market, US Treasury yields tightly anchored, and storage logic reshaping, four forces converging simultaneously in this window.
📱 Xiaomi Q2 Financial Report: Phones go down, cars go up
After the market closed on August 18, Xiaomi released its Q2 2026 results: revenue of 108.9 billion yuan, adjusted net profit of 6.2 billion yuan. Breaking it down:
The smartphone business is under comprehensive pressure. Shipments plummeted 26.5% from 42.4 million units in the same period last year to 31.2 million units, with revenue dropping to 42.1 billion yuan. Rising storage chip prices suppressed global demand, but Xiaomi optimized its product structure to push smartphone ASP to a historic high of 1351 yuan—"Sell less, but sell at a higher price."
The automotive business became the biggest highlight. Smart electric vehicle revenue was 23.9 billion yuan, with 104,199 units delivered, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%. But the automotive business is not without risks—gross margin dropped sharply from 26.4% last year to 19.2%, with an operating loss of 2.6 billion yuan. Goldman Sachs believes Q2 will be Xiaomi's "profit bottom," and the second half of the year is expected to see a turning point driven by marginal cost improvement and new car growth.
"Phones support the family, automotive entrepreneurship"—Xiaomi's transformation period continues.
📈 The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has reached its highest level since 2007
On August 18, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surged to 5.31%, the highest since 2007.
Three pressures driving this together: the US fiscal deficit continues to expand, with the CBO forecasting debt interest payments to climb to $2.1 trillion by 2036; the AI investment boom has led to large-scale corporate bond issuance, with investment-grade bond issuance hitting a record high for the same period in August; and US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel.
The rise in long-term interest rates means that the valuation benchmark for global risk assets is being re-anchored. When the risk-free rate rises above 5.3%, how much longer can the high valuations of tech stocks hold?
💾 SanDisk closed up over 8%, reshaping the storage logic of long-term contracts
SanDisk rose about 8% on Monday to $1,786.85, with a cumulative increase of over 629% for the year. JPMorgan resumed coverage, setting a target price of $2,250.
The core driver of this rally is long-term agreements (NBM long-term contracts): SanDisk has signed 10 long-term supply agreements, with a minimum contract value of $93.9 billion, an average contract term exceeding four years, and $16.5 billion in financial guarantees. The company has locked in about two-thirds of its shipments for fiscal year 2028.
SanDisk is shifting from a highly cyclical NAND supplier to a value-creating model driven by AI demand and secured by long-term agreements. When demand visibility extends from 3 months to over 4 years, the logic of the cycle is rewritten.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Xiaomi's smartphone business is raising prices as it shrinks in volume, its automotive business is losing money as it ramps, and the switching between old and new engines is still in a painful phase; The U.S. Treasury market is using a 5.31% yield to signal to the world that lax fiscal discipline is being repriced; SanDisk, on the other hand, uses $93.9 billion in long-term contracts to try to rewrite the storage industry's cycle of "surges and crashes." As the old engine stalls, the risk-free rate is re-anchored, and industry logic is being reshaped—the market in August 2026 is searching for new coordinates for pricing systems in the "post-AI era." #财报观察员: Xiaomi Q2 Financial Report Released—Is It Cars Saving the Pack or Smartphones Holding Us Back?
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%, long-term agreements are under scrutiny As of around 23:58 Singapore time on August 18 (about 11:58 Eastern US time, US stocks still trading), the core of today's decline is not a single negative factor, but the combination of "US Treasury yields soaring + Iran situation pushing up oil prices + AI/semiconductor high-level concentrated profit-taking."
Currently, it is very clear that tech stocks are being hit the hardest: SPY down about -0.6%, QQQ about -1.7%, and semiconductor ETF SOXX has already reached about -5.7%. Individual stocks: NVIDIA about -2.4%, Micron -6.8%, SanDisk -8.3%.
① The biggest reason: US long-term Treasury yields suddenly surged
This is the most important variable today.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.72%–4.74%, the 30-year yield once reached about 5.33%, the highest level since 2007. And it’s not just the US; today there was actually a global sell-off in long-term bonds.
MarketWatch
+1
This is especially unfriendly to tech stocks. Simply put:
Treasury yields ↑
→ risk-free rate ↑
→ discounted value of future stock earnings ↓
→ stocks with higher PE and more distant expectations fall harder.
So what you see today is not a Dow plunge, but QQQ, AI, and semiconductors clearly underperforming the broader market.
$SNDK The panic over the storage chip cycle peaking triggered by $SKHY SanDisk's earnings plunge is spreading across the entire storage sector. SK Hynix, as the leader in HBM, is directly hit. The plunge in South Korea's KOSPI triggered leveraged liquidations, forcing Korean retail investors to sell all liquid assets—including SK Hynix shares. Concerns over HBM overcapacity continue to intensify, and neither Micron nor SK Hynix can escape it. MSTR is a Leveraged Credit Default Swap on the entire US financial system - as Bitcoin is the CDS.
They stay mis-priced for a long time.
And then re-price in a hurry."Xiaomi Earnings Report Day Sees Stock Rise! Revenue Returns to 100 Billion, Auto Business Becomes Key Focus"
Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) Market Snapshot Today (August 18, 2026)
At close, Xiaomi Group's stock price was **HKD 26.18**, up about **1.16%**.
- Intraday high reached HKD 26.54
- Low was HKD 25.22
- Trading volume approximately 179 million shares
The company also released its Q2 2026 earnings today, with a generally positive market response.
### Key Highlights Today
1. **Q2 Performance Overview**
- Quarterly revenue approximately **108.9 billion yuan**, returning above the 100 billion mark
- Adjusted net profit about **6.219 billion yuan**, stabilizing quarter-on-quarter
- Smartphone gross margin around 8.5%, maintaining a certain profit level
Facing rising storage costs and intensified industry competition, Xiaomi stabilized profit performance through operational optimization.
2. **Ongoing Share Buybacks**
Since 2026 began, Xiaomi has repurchased shares totaling about **HKD 11.7 billion**, demonstrating confidence in its own value and providing some support to the stock price.
3. **Auto Business Remains a Core Mid-to-Long-Term Variable**
The company’s 2026 auto delivery target is **550,000 vehicles**. The scale expansion and loss narrowing progress of the auto business will continue to influence market revaluation of Xiaomi.
### Future Outlook
**Short term (1-3 months):**
After the earnings release, the stock price is expected to fluctuate and digest within the HKD 25-28 range. If auto delivery data continues to exceed expectations, there may be further upward momentum; if pressure on the smartphone business increases, a retest of previous lows is possible.
**Mid to long term:**
Xiaomi’s core focus has shifted from "smartphones + IoT" to "smartphones + autos + full ecosystem." Market valuation largely depends on whether the auto business can transition from "burning cash for expansion" to "scaled profitability."
If the 2026 delivery target is met smoothly and losses narrow significantly, the stock price is likely to see valuation recovery; otherwise, it will remain in low-valuation fluctuation.
### Summary in One Sentence
**Xiaomi’s Q2 performance stabilizes, buybacks provide a floor, but the true determinant of future growth is the auto business’s execution capability.**
The current position is more suitable for mid-to-long-term investment strategies, with potential for increased short-term volatility. Focus on upcoming monthly auto delivery data and gross margin changes.
What’s your view on Xiaomi’s future? Continue holding or wait for a better entry point? Share your thoughts in the comments.
$XIAOMI #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨
Gold touched $4430, but I wouldn't call it a "new high."
If the theme is limited to "safe haven" rather than betting on volatility, I would choose gold. At least for now, gold is trading as insurance, while BTC is still trading on liquidity.
Gold rebounded about 9% in August, once returning near $4430; as of the week ending August 12, gold funds saw a net inflow of $2.62 billion, the strongest since January. Option skew has shifted from protective puts to calls, with about 8,000 November expiry GLD call options at a $460 strike price appearing; but at the same time, there are still 25,000 September $350 put options. Big money is buying upside volatility, not abandoning risk control.
Don't forget, gold reached $5595 in January and is still about 21% lower now; $4500–$4504 remains a strong resistance. The funds have returned, but chasing highs doesn't guarantee odds.
Gold positions only account for 10% of total funds, no increase near $4430; if the daily chart holds above $4505 and ETFs continue inflows, then add another 2%. BTC keeps 25% long-term positions, only adding if it holds above $65,000 and spot ETFs have net inflows for 3 consecutive days.
Gold lets me sleep well; BTC is responsible for asymmetric returns five years from now. They are not opponents; using the wrong yardstick leads to misjudgment. $XAU $BTC Actually, the most important reasons for this wave of rise, I think, are:
1. Tomorrow's White House crypto meeting, where Trump and top leaders in the crypto field will participate, possibly bringing policy guidance.
2. The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has already broken through to a new high since the 2008 financial crisis, which is very alarming and indicates a decline in the credit rating of the dollar. Why does this affect BTC? BlackRock also said tonight, "We are bullish on Bitcoin; the core investment logic of Bitcoin as a new global currency alternative and a unique portfolio diversification tool remains unchanged."
From a technical indicator perspective, $BTC is also facing extreme compression, and the choice of direction is unstoppable.
Good expectations make tonight's BTC stand out, moving against the U.S. stock market trend.
If positive news is released tomorrow, BTC breaking through 65780 will directly trigger a small one-sided rally; if there is no positive news, its oscillation range will remain between 64000 and 65780, but the outlook is still bullish.1. The "$1.8 trillion panic" could trigger a 30% sharp fluctuation in Bitcoin. My understanding: Treat the "$1.8 trillion" and "30%" in the headline as references, not precise predictions. What I care more about is whether the underlying risk chain holds. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields are roughly: 2-year at 4.19%, 10-year at 4.72%, 20-year at 5.3%, and 30-year at 5.31%. The long end has reached multi-year highs, meaning the opportunity cost of holding risk assets is rising. BTC has no cash flow, so traditional valuation models can't be fully applied. But its volatility makes it very sensitive to funding costs, liquidity, and risk appetite. When even low-risk U.S. Treasuries can yield close to 5%, some money originally allocated to stocks and crypto will be recalculated, and institutions will be more cautious about using leverage and allocating to BTC. So although BTC is moving toward a long-term reserve asset, in the short term, it often remains a high-beta risk asset. When interest rates rise and liquidity tightens, it can easily fall along with the stock market. The transmission logic is roughly as follows: U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury supply pressure rise → long-term Treasury yields rise → cost of holding risk assets increases → risk appetite declines → BTC faces short-term pressure. Japan is also a hidden risk. The yen has been depreciating continuously, and Japan is unlikely to let it go unchecked. But the real concern is not the yen depreciation itself, but that Japan might raise interest rates or directly intervene to stabilize the exchange rate. If these actions cause the yen to appreciate rapidly, previously borrowed low-interest yen used to buy U.S. stocks and crypto could be affected.Funding Rate Peaks at 20 Months, $BTC About to Shift
---
Funding Rate: 20-Month High
The perpetual contract funding rate has surged to the highest level in nearly 20 months, reaching 0.0228 on August 14, and currently remains elevated between +0.005% and 0.009%. Long position costs are significantly high, and market bullish sentiment is extremely intense.
---#30-year US Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007
Open Interest: Leverage Has Not Receded
BTC futures open interest remains above 360,000 contracts (approximately $29.2 billion), with some metrics showing an 8-month high. Leveraged funds have not exited; once the direction becomes clear, volatility is very likely to be intense.
---$ETH
Price Positioning: 65K, Battle for 66K
Current price hovers around $65,000, with $66,300 above as the mid-term moving average resistance level, the most critical recent resistance point.
· Break above 66K: Volume breakout, high funding rate + bullish sentiment may accelerate the move
· Break below support: $62,500~$62,700 is the short-term lifeline for bulls; losing this risks liquidation of high-leverage long positions
---$SNDK
Divergence Not to Be Ignored
Active buy orders account for over 51%, with retail investors aggressively chasing longs in the contract market; however, large holders on the spot side have nearly $1 billion in cumulative transactions, with limit sell orders exceeding buy orders by $204 million—clear internal divergence.
---#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
Macro Catalysts
Wednesday's FOMC minutes + White House crypto summit could trigger a turning point at any time.
---#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
The market is already very tense. Derivatives are heating up, spot has yet to catch up, and internal divisions exist. 66K is the watershed; holding above it could turn sentiment from hot to explosive; failing to hold it means high-leverage longs become ready fuel. The choice of direction may be right before us. $XAU Why Gold's Breakout Might Not Be About Gold At All
Nikkei dropped ~2.5% today. The real story isn't the equity move , it's the 10-year JGB yield hitting ~2.95%, a 30-year high for Japan.
Here's the chain worth watching: Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries (~$1.1T+, and already trimming). If domestic Japanese yields keep climbing, capital that's been parked in US bonds for the yield differential has less reason to stay abroad. Less foreign demand for Treasuries pressures Treasury prices down, which pushes long-end US yields up and that's exactly what's showing: the 30-year is already above 5.3%.
Higher long-term US yields squeeze Nasdaq valuations. China trimming Treasury holdings too just adds to the pressure.
Everyone's watching the Fed. Maybe the wrong central bank is getting the attention,if a major carry trade unwind actually happens, it doesn't stay contained to Tokyo.
Which brings it back to gold: price just broke its multi-month downtrend and reclaimed the 0.5 fib level ($4,394) with EMAs flipping bullish underneath it. That breakout is happening in the same week this yield story is unfolding. Could be coincidence, could be capital already sensing where this chain ends.
Not predicting the unwind. Just noting the setup lines up.
$XAU #30YYieldHits2007High #GoldOptionsTurnBullish Friends, today let's talk about a big event — the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.304%, hitting a new high since 2007. What does this number mean? The last time we saw this level, the global financial crisis hadn't even broken out yet. So don't just focus on the candlestick charts; let's first clarify "why money has become more expensive" before looking at how the crypto market will move. 🌪️ What does the new high in the 30-year US Treasury yield really mean? In simple terms: the "benchmark price" of global money has been re-priced. On August 18, the 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.304% intraday, not only breaking last month's high but also reaching the highest level since June 2007. At the same time, Canada's 30-year yield hit its highest since 2010, Germany's long-term bond yields reached their highest since 2011, and Japan's 10-year JGB soared to 2.945%, a new high since 1996, approaching the 3% fiscal warning line. Why the sudden change? Several factors combined: The US fiscal deficit is nearly $2 trillion annually, and the national debt is rapidly increasing, with massive long-term bond supply. The AI investment boom has triggered a surge in corporate bond issuance, with record bond supply impacting the market and absorbing hundreds of billions of dollars, exacerbating the weakening demand from traditional long-term bond buyers. Inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's target for the past five years, and the market suspects "short-term interest rates will stay high for a long time." Middle East tensions and rising energy prices have pushed up inflation concerns, while bond supply pressures in major economies and monetary policy expectations are driving long-term yields higher.A brief review of the long position, considering the 9:30 market open rally sentiment, but it wasn't as strong as expected.
💰 Long Position Review
Direction: Long
Entry Price: 1,683
Take Profit Price: 1,745
Actual High: 1,724
Stop Loss Price: 1,620
Return: -38.41%
The take profit was set at 1,745, but the highest price only reached 1,724, missing 21 points. Then it dropped all the way to 1,620, triggering the stop loss. The direction was actually correct; there was indeed rally sentiment at the open, but the strength was insufficient, and the rebound fell short of the expected level before fading.
📊 Market Trend Analysis
Technical:
$SNDK dropped from a high of 1,821 down to 1,614, a decline of over 200 points. MA5 (1,639), MA10 (1,657), and MA20 (1,676) are all turning downward, with all moving averages pressing from above, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend. Support lies between 1,600-1,614; breaking this leads to 1,500. Resistance is at 1,680-1,700; failure to break above means continuing to seek support lower.
Fundamental:
$SNDK closed up over 8%, with long-term agreements attracting attention — sounds positive. But the market completely disagreed, dropping straight from 1,821 to 1,614, indicating capital is using the good news to sell off. No matter how good the long-term agreement is, it can't withstand short-term profit-taking. This "good news but no rise" pattern is actually a bearish signal.
Sentiment:
Bulls have been repeatedly pushed down; 1,724 couldn't be surpassed, and 1,680 couldn't hold. This shows heavy selling pressure above and insufficient buying power. Market sentiment is turning pessimistic, making a decent short-term rebound unlikely.
📌 Tonight's Trading Strategy
Direction:
Bearish, target 1,500.
Entry:
Wait for a rebound to the 1,650-1,670 range before shorting. If no rebound is given, you can enter in batches with light positions, not all at once.
Stop Loss:
Above 1,700. Breaking this level means the bearish thesis is wrong; cut losses and exit.
Take Profit:
First target 1,600, second target 1,500.
Position Size:
10x leverage, light position entry, leaving room for adding.
Plan:
Place a short order at 1,655, stop loss at 1,705, take profit at 1,505. If 1,700 is effectively broken, admit the mistake and exit. If it pulls back and stabilizes near 1,600, reduce position; if it breaks below 1,600, add to the position.
---
Personal Note:
The long position was stopped out due to greed. Clearly, 1,724 was the top, but I insisted on reaching 1,745. For this short, exit at the target without greed.
$SNDK
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Among the 298 million in inflows, the number for LINK is the most unusual—it lit up for two consecutive days 🧐
On August 17, crypto ETFs collectively showed green lights. BTC net inflow was 298 million, ETH inflow was 30.85 million, LINK inflow was 2.07 million, and AVAX inflow was 510,000. All four turned positive.
The market is focused on the 298 million, but what I want to emphasize is—LINK’s consecutive two-day net inflow is the most abnormal signal. Since the LINK spot ETF launched, most of the time it had zero or even negative inflows. Unlike BTC and ETH, which have continuous institutional buying, LINK mostly stayed quietly in the corner. But after recording inflows on August 16, it again had 2.07 million inflow on August 17. This is the first time since the LINK ETF launch that it recorded positive inflows for two consecutive days.
On-chain data also supports this—Bitwise directly bought 171,870 LINK from Coinbase and Wintermute. This is not retail behavior; institutions are directly scooping up through compliant channels. LINK’s open interest contracts increased by about 5% in the past few days, and the funding rate returned to positive territory. LINK is undergoing a new round of accumulation, and this time ETF funds are driving it. The AVAX ETF also turned positive—although a small amount of 510,000, the directional signal is equally worth noting.
This is the first time in history that a crypto ETF outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum has shown consecutive net inflows.
298 million is not huge, but with all four ETFs lighting up simultaneously, LINK is the most unusual one. It’s telling you that institutional attention is expanding beyond BTC. When the direction starts to shift, small and continuous confirmation signals are more valuable than a single large pulse.
Not every 298 million means a bull market is coming, but LINK lighting up for two consecutive days is something worth a closer look.
#BTC #ETH #LINK #AVAX #ETF$ETH $BTC $SNDK #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
The earnings report is out, showing a very divided result. Revenue firmly held the 100 billion mark, but adjusted net profit dropped sharply by 42.6% year-over-year. The market is now split into two camps: one group pins all hopes on the automotive segment, while the other believes the profit hole from smartphones will eventually drag down the entire report. I'll break down my views and also discuss how this news affects sentiment in risk asset markets.
First, the conclusion upfront: the automotive segment has stabilized its growth story but cannot be said to have saved the situation; smartphones are the real culprit dragging down profits.
1. Automotive: The narrative remains, still in the money-burning ramp-up phase
In Q2, automotive deliveries exceeded 104,000 units, revenue reached ¥23.9 billion, with a gross margin of 19.2%, just shy of the 20% target. Per-vehicle losses have clearly narrowed, and the delivery foundation is holding.
✅ Highlights: For two consecutive quarters, deliveries have stayed above 100,000 units, vehicle gross margin continues to improve, and new models remain popular in the market. This is the only business line in the entire group experiencing rapid expansion.
⚠️ Real risks: The innovative business segment still posted a loss of ¥2.6 billion, with large-scale R&D and channel investments ongoing. More critically, the full-year delivery target poses pressure; to meet the original guidance of 550,000 units, the delivery intensity in the remaining months must be very high. Institutions have generally lowered expectations to the 460,000–500,000 range, making completion quite challenging. BTC is waiting for a catalyst, ETH takes the lead! Capital rotation completely rewrites the main theme of the crypto market
$BTC $ETH
The market divergence on August 18 reveals the core capital logic of the current crypto market: it’s not an overall market downturn, but a quiet shift in the main sector theme, with funds moving from defensive assets with certainty to high-growth assets.
Currently, BTC maintains a high-level range with grinding oscillation, never weakening or breaking down. According to Bitfinex Alpha market data, BTC has only retraced 5.4% from its historical high, showing strong market resilience. At this stage, BTC is not launching a one-sided trend; the core is waiting for a clear catalyst signal: the market is highly focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statements and whether spot ETF funds can continue net inflows. Without core positive news, BTC remains in a high-level oscillation and accumulation state, prioritizing stability and waiting for a breakout.
In contrast, $ETH has long since broken out of the oscillation range and started a structural rebound early. From the April low of $1386, it has rebounded steadily, with the current price approaching the 2021 historical high range of $4864. The rebound strength and bullish momentum far exceed BTC, showing an independent strengthening trend.
The clearest evidence of capital rotation comes from the continuous decline in BTC’s market dominance: in just two months, BTC’s dominance has steadily dropped from 65% to 59%, a full 6 percentage points of capital outflow. This is not short-term retail sentiment speculation but large-scale, sustained institutional capital reallocation, which is the core proof of this market rotation.
Currently, the two mainstream cryptocurrencies have formed completely different market positions and capital attributes:
BTC is equivalent to the "digital gold" of the crypto market
It carries macro hedging, asset defense, and traditional institutional allocation funds, with its trend closely following macro cycles, focusing on stability and certainty, responsible for attracting traditional incremental funds to the crypto market and maintaining the market’s foundation.
ETH is equivalent to the "technology growth asset" of the crypto market
Funds no longer simply focus on macro trends but refocus on its network ecosystem growth, on-chain application implementation, staking yields, and other intrinsic values. When traditional defensive assets stagnate, ETH’s growth attributes are fully leveraged, successfully absorbing overflow capital and showing an independent upward trend.
This deep rotation fundamentally changes the market speculation logic:
In the past, the market competed on "who had higher gains and stronger trends,"
Now the core is a capital style shift—from pursuing absolute safety and certainty to gradually flowing into growth sectors with valuation recovery and ecosystem expansion.
In summary of the current landscape:
BTC is responsible for stabilizing the market base and waiting for macro catalysts to materialize;
ETH is responsible for driving structural trends and unlocking market profit potential.
If the capital rotation trend continues, the main market theme will be completely reconstructed, with ETH and major public chains’ growth recovery becoming the core focus of the crypto market going forward.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#BTC #ETH #CapitalRotation #CryptoMarketMainTheme #MarketStructureAnalysis #MacroTradingLogic3. Alibaba-SW
Up 3.68%, with increased trading activity. Domestic consumption is slowly recovering, e-commerce core business remains stable, and overseas cross-border e-commerce continues to expand its footprint. Alibaba Cloud's computing power business maintains high growth, with AI-related cloud services driving revenue growth. Slight net inflow of southbound funds supports a rebound in the stock price from a low level. Competition in the e-commerce sector remains intense in the long term, and rising traffic costs will compress profit margins. The stock price is in a relatively low valuation range, currently in a recovery phase, but lacks strong catalysts for a significant surge. 2. C&D International Group
Closed up 3.7%, a popular stock among domestic real estate shares. Real estate sales data show marginal stabilization, with expectations for steady real estate-related policies heating up. The market is betting on the fundamental recovery logic of quality real estate companies. The company is a state-owned enterprise with a stable debt structure, and its projects are concentrated in core cities, making risks relatively controllable. The overall inventory in the real estate industry is relatively high, and the industry's recovery pace is slow, making rapid performance growth difficult. This round of the market mainly focuses on valuation recovery, with upside potential constrained by the pace of improvement in commodity housing sales.1. Kingsray Biotechnology
Surged nearly 9%, reaching a new high in over three years. The company disclosed its semi-annual report, with revenue increasing 27.3% year-over-year and adjusted net profit growth exceeding 200%. The life sciences business improved operational efficiency by leveraging AI research tools, significantly enhancing business performance. Multiple institutions raised their target prices, and institutional funds continue to increase holdings in the CXO sector. The overseas biopharmaceutical financing environment remains uncertain, and overseas orders face volatility risks. The stock price has rapidly surged in the short term, completing a round of valuation recovery; further gains require sustained performance fulfillment, with rising risks for short-term chasing.5. GoPlus Security (GPS)
Intraday increase of 22%, focusing on on-chain security service tokens. Recently, multiple public chains have exposed security vulnerabilities, rapidly increasing attention on the on-chain security sector. The project officially announced security cooperation agreements with three small to medium public chains, which is a positive catalyst for the market. There are many competing projects in this sector, with low business barriers, making it difficult to establish exclusive business advantages. The token's overall liquidity is relatively weak, and selling pressure will quickly release after a sharp rise. The theme has obvious speculative characteristics, and after the hype fades, the gains will quickly be given back. $SNDK images belong to Jiuzong, with a loss of 400,000 USD about to turn into floating profit! 1. Valuation bubble completely overextends expectations
Surged over 170% this year, the market priced cyclical flash memory stocks as AI growth stocks, most of the rally has already priced in future price hike benefits, and massive profit-taking positions at high levels can be cashed out anytime.
2. Performance relies entirely on price hikes, real demand is weak
Two-thirds of revenue in financial reports depends on NAND price increases, mobile phone and PC consumer storage continue to decline due to inventory reduction; only AI business supports the bottom line, once flash memory prices ease, gross margin will sharply decline.
3. Capacity will be concentratedly released in 2027, cycle turning point approaching
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia new factories will start mass production in the second half of the year, NAND supply growth will exceed AI demand growth, current shortage is only a short-term illusion, flash memory price hike benefits are about to peak.
4. Dual negative from institutional shorts + major shareholder sell-off
Citron Research publicly released a short report, pointing out that storage supply and demand is a mirage; parent company Western Digital's large-scale discounted sell-off, high-level shareholder exit is a clear peak signal.
The market is run by time, not by emotion and speculation 5. SanDisk (SNDK)
Up 8.88%, a representative company in storage chips. Elon Musk publicly pointed out that storage chips are a bottleneck in AI development, igniting bullish sentiment in the sector. AI business brings massive storage demand, and the market is optimistic about the long-term demand for NAND flash memory. The company's storage products supply two major markets: consumer electronics and servers, with a balanced business structure. Demand in the consumer electronics market is weak, relying only on computing power business to drive growth. Short-term news stimulus has driven the stock price up, and after the positive news is absorbed, it is likely to enter a consolidation phase.1. Coherent (COHR)
Single-day surge of 7.79%, a leading company in optical communication devices. The company disclosed financial results exceeding market expectations and simultaneously raised its full-year 2027 operating guidance, with multiple investment banks raising target prices. Supplies high-speed optical modules and optical components to overseas cloud providers, with AI data center construction driving product demand. The company holds a technological advantage in high-speed optical devices, and overseas computing power expansion brings long-term incremental orders. The stock price surged rapidly in the short term, lifting valuation. Once global capital expenditures slow down, hardware orders will face pressure, limiting the stock's upside potential. Attention is needed on the expansion plans of overseas cloud providers.#Newbies Must Read: Everything You Need Is Here
Can Grid and Martingale run simultaneously? On OKX, I used 50% of my funds for each and ran a comparison for a month.
Conclusion first: They can run simultaneously, but I don't recommend it. I ran Grid with 5000U and Martingale with 5000U. After a month, one felt like collecting rent, the other like gambling for life. You might not believe it, so I'll break down the process for you.
Test Conditions
· Platform: OKX
· Assets: BTC spot and perpetual contracts
· Time: The past month, BTC dropped from around 62000 to 56000, then rebounded to about 60000, with both oscillations and trends
· Fund allocation: 5000U for Grid, 5000U for Martingale, each 50%
· Grid parameters: Spot grid, range 60000-65000, 50 equal intervals, no leverage
· Martingale parameters: Contract Martingale, initial position 0.05 BTC, add position every 3% drop, doubling the added amount each time, up to 5 times, no leverage (full margin mode)
The 5000U in Grid: So stable it makes you sleepy
After a month, the Grid's annualized return was about 18%, earning less than 150U. The range was 60000-65000, but the market mostly oscillated between 58000-62000. The Grid often bought near the lower boundary and sold near the upper boundary, capturing dozens of price differences back and forth. The best part was I barely managed it; when I checked my account, the profit was already there.
The only tense moment for Grid was when BTC steadily dropped from 62000 to 56000. The price broke below the lower boundary of 60000, and the Grid's buy orders were all used up, locking the position. The maximum unrealized loss was about 200U, but since it was spot without leverage, I stayed calm and did nothing. Later, the price rebounded above 60000, and the Grid automatically sold the assets, even making some spread profit.
My feeling about Grid this month: like collecting rent. Not exciting, but safe and reassuring. Not much profit, but consistent.
The 5000U in Martingale: So thrilling I almost shut down my computer
Martingale is a different story. I set it to add positions every 3% drop, doubling each time, up to 5 times. The initial position was 0.05 BTC, entering long at 62000.
In the first few days, BTC oscillated between 61000-63000, and Martingale's unrealized loss was small. Occasionally, a rebound triggered take profit, earning about 80U. But the good times didn't last.
BTC started a steady decline from 62000, dropping to 60000 triggering the first add; 58000 for the second add; 56000 for the third add. At 56000, my cumulative position was already 7 times the initial, with unrealized losses close to 600U. The 5000U margin for Martingale was over 70% utilized. I watched my phone every day, palms sweating, thinking: if it drops to 54000 and triggers another add, the margin won't hold.
The most agonizing days were around 56000, with price fluctuating between 55000-57000. My Martingale position's unrealized loss peaked at 800U, a 16% loss. I wanted to manually close the position but thought since I had held this far, maybe it would rebound. This mindset is the most dangerous part of Martingale—it makes you lose rationality amid losses, always thinking "just one more add if it drops a bit more, just hold a bit longer to break even."
Later, BTC finally rebounded from 56000 back to around 60000, and my Martingale triggered take profit near the average price, earning 120U. You see, it earned more than Grid? But I tell you, I didn't sleep well for three days after earning that 120U. Several times I almost got liquidated; if the rebound hadn't come in time, that 5000U might have been gone.
Comparison results: Similar returns, vastly different risks
Project Grid Martingale
Investment 5000U 5000U
Profit ~150U ~120U
Max unrealized loss ~200U ~800U
Mental state Relaxed, barely watching Anxious, watching daily
Risk Controllable, stop loss on break Uncontrollable, infinite add risk of liquidation
In terms of returns, Grid is slightly higher. But more importantly, Grid gives me peace of mind, Martingale shortens my lifespan. Grid is like running a stall, Martingale is gambling for life. This month's market was mild, so Martingale survived. If BTC drops another 10%, that 5000U in Martingale would be gone. Grid? Even if the price drops deeper, I can just turn off the grid; the spot is still in hand, waiting for the next wave.
My conclusion: They can run simultaneously, but it's unnecessary
If you insist on running both, here are three suggestions:
1. Fund ratio should not be 50/50. Give more to Grid, like 70%; Martingale at most 30%, and only a small part of total funds, not half the account.
2. Martingale must have max add times and stop loss. I set 5 times this round and survived. Without limits, the deeper it falls, the heavier the adds, liquidation is just a matter of time. If max adds reached without rebound, close unconditionally; don't gamble with the market.
3. When a trend market comes, don't run either. Grid gets fully trapped in a trending market; Martingale accelerates liquidation. They perform best in sideways markets. How to tell a trend? Bollinger Bands widening, price breaking out with volume—signals to exit quickly.
Finally, honestly: Running Grid and Martingale simultaneously sounds like "double insurance," but it's actually "double risk." One profits from volatility, the other from rebounds, but both fear trending markets. No matter how much capital you have, you can't withstand extreme markets. I tried for a month and ended up shutting down Martingale, keeping only Grid. Because Grid lets me sleep well, Martingale gives me nightmares.
In this market, surviving longer is ten thousand times more important than making quick profits. A strategy that lets you sleep well is a good strategy. $BTC $ETH 4. Zhongshi Technology (300684)
20cm daily limit up, a target in the computing power heat dissipation sector. Demand for AI server liquid cooling and thermal conductive materials is expected to continuously rise, and the expansion of computing power infrastructure opens up industry space. The company supplies thermal conductive materials to multiple server manufacturers, with business backed by real industry support. During the adjustment period of the computing power sector, capital chooses to hedge and speculate on segmented hardware materials. The sector's mid-to-long-term prosperity is decent, but the stock price has rapidly surged in the short term, with valuation quickly rising. It is necessary to continuously track the order fulfillment status of downstream manufacturers, as short-term price fluctuations are relatively large. 2. Tianshan Biological (300313)
Single-day 20% limit-up, a popular stock in the livestock sector. The adjustment in pig inventory combined with rising grain prices has caused a full-scale movement in the agricultural industry chain. The company is involved in beef cattle breeding and livestock farming businesses. Its small market capitalization brings significant stock price elasticity, attracting speculative capital to push up the stock price. The company’s operations have long experienced significant performance fluctuations, with weak profit stability. This round of increase is driven by the sector's collective strength, lacking independent positive catalysts. The sector rotation pace is fast, making short-term chasing of highs have a low risk-reward ratio, and caution is needed against one-day capital outflows causing pullbacks. BTC has not yet broken through 66K, but the funding rate has already surged to a 20-month high: Are the bulls too crowded?
BTC is currently around 64.7K, with the price still stuck in the recent consolidation range, but the derivatives market has clearly become restless. CryptoQuant data shows that the annualized funding rate for BTC perpetual contracts has risen to the highest level in about 20 months.
What’s more noteworthy is that long positions account for more than 51% of active trades, while BTC futures open interest remains around 750,000 BTC.
In short:
The price hasn’t taken off yet, but those leveraging up to bet on a rise have already filled their seats in advance.
A positive funding rate means longs have to continuously pay shorts to maintain their positions. Its rise certainly indicates a bullish market bias, but if it gets too high, it also poses risks: once the price reverses, the crowded long positions will become fuel for a cascade of liquidations.
Now, two levels need attention:
**Whether the area above 65K–66.4K can truly break through; and whether around 63K can still hold.** Recently, BTC has been oscillating between approximately 62.2K and 66.4K.
If spot buying keeps up and breaks through 66.4K, the high funding rate may continue to drive the rally; but if the breakout fails, the most at risk will be those bulls who have already maxed out their leverage in advance. 5. SanDisk (SNDK)
Up 8.88%, a representative company in storage chips. Elon Musk publicly pointed out that storage chips are a bottleneck in AI development, igniting bullish sentiment in the sector. AI business brings massive storage demand, and the market is optimistic about the long-term demand for NAND flash memory. The company's storage products supply two major markets: consumer electronics and servers, with a balanced business structure. Demand in the consumer electronics market is weak, relying only on computing power business to drive growth. Short-term news stimulus has driven the stock price up, and after the positive news is absorbed, it is likely to enter a consolidation phase.#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨
Gold has reached 4430 USD, and BTC is still hovering around 63,000. These two assets are no longer moving in the same direction.
August isn't over yet, but gold has already risen over 8%. Spot gold broke 4430, and futures gold reached 4490. The options market's bullish premium has surpassed the bearish premium for the first time, with large bets on a further 13% rise.
Why is gold rising? Crude oil is back at 91, inflation remains unchecked; the US Treasury scale is expanding, and the 30-year yield broke 5.31%, hitting a new high since 2007. US dollar credit is being consumed, making gold the unrivaled safe-haven option. Some analysts see it reaching 7150, and gold ETFs saw inflows of 3 billion in July.
But BTC hasn't followed, staying around 63,000 for over a month. Gold trading reflects "US dollar credit is cracking," while BTC trading reflects "when will the Fed ease." Two logics, two paths.
People say BTC is digital gold? Gold hits a historic high, BTC has dropped 19% from its peak. Same narrative, different outcomes.
Capital is choosing sides. Gold ETFs have large inflows, BTC ETFs had a net outflow of 390 million last week. Money goes where there is a trend, not just a story.
Gold is only 500 USD away from 5000, BTC is still waiting for direction. Complete decoupling is not good for the crypto space—capital follows trends, not narratives.
Let's discuss in the comments: Will BTC follow gold or continue to decouple? 1 for follow, 2 for decouple. I'll start: 2. The prices of $BTC and $ETH are both in critical ranges, but the real difference is: BTC is looking for support, ETH is looking for a breakout.
Currently, $BTC is around $64,000, and $ETH is around $1,900. Both prices are delicate, but their implications differ. For BTC, the most important thing now is support; for ETH, the most important thing is a breakout. BTC needs to prove that bad news can't break it, while ETH needs to prove that good news can bring incremental buying.
On the BTC side, there is actually quite a bit of bad news: ETF funds fluctuating, SEC meetings canceled, Clarity Act delayed, the myth of Strategy buying weakened, high US Treasury yields, and disturbances from geopolitics and oil prices. Logically, if the market were fragile, BTC should have fallen more sharply. But if it can still hold in the $62,000 to $64,000 range, it indicates there is buying support underneath. For BTC, the increasing difficulty of bad news pushing it to new lows is itself a signal of strengthening holdings.
ETH is different. Holding near $1,900 is important for ETH, but it needs to prove itself upward. The market already knows ETH has smart contracts, DeFi, stablecoins, and staking yields, but these stories have been told for years. Now institutions want new evidence: can ETF funds continue to flow in? Is there progress on staking ETFs? Are on-chain fees rebounding? Is the L2 ecosystem feeding back into the mainnet? Are RWA and stablecoins continuing to settle within the Ethereum system?
So BTC’s trading is more like a "bad news test," while ETH’s trading is more like "good news realization." As long as BTC doesn’t fall under regulatory and macro pressure, the market will gradually regain confidence; ETH needs to break key resistance to prove it’s not just following BTC but has its own independent capital logic. BTC can rely on scarcity to resist, ETH must win through applications and yields.
This is also why the ETH/BTC ratio is very important. If ETH strengthens while BTC consolidates, it means capital is starting to shift from macro reserve assets to on-chain financial assets; if BTC holds but ETH lags, it means the market still prefers certainty and liquidity. For ETH to achieve a higher valuation, it can’t just rely on BTC to lift it; it must have its own capital inflows and narrative realization.
The current price ranges are like an exam. BTC is tested on defense, ETH on offense. BTC holding near $64,000 shows the market is still willing to believe in it; ETH standing firm at $1,900 and continuing upward shows the market is willing to reprice on-chain finance.
An asset that doesn’t fall amid bad news is called support; an asset that can form an independent trend amid good news is called revaluation. BTC and ETH are now respectively stuck on these two concepts. Two pieces of news, respectively from the SOL ecosystem and the DeFi sector, are very interesting when viewed together. First, let's talk about Pump.fun. Pump.fun, the largest Meme coin issuance platform on the Solana chain, announced today: the token transaction fee on the Solana chain is reduced to 0%, and the cross-chain transaction fee is 0.1%. What does zero fees mean? It means Pump.fun is using "free" as a weapon to capture all transaction traffic on the chain. Currently, the main battleground for Meme coins is between Solana and Base. Although Base is backed by Coinbase, its trading volume and ecosystem depth are far less than SOL. This zero-fee move by Pump.fun is basically telling the market: if you want to play with Meme coins, come to Solana. This signal has a long-term impact on SOL. Because transaction fees are the core revenue source for exchanges and platforms. Pump.fun's willingness to give up this part of the revenue shows their strategic goal is to "grow the ecosystem" rather than "make quick money." The larger the trading volume, the more prosperous the ecosystem, and the stronger the on-chain demand for SOL. Now let's look at Compound. The veteran DeFi lending protocol Compound has approved a $52 million budget and announced a leadership team restructuring. In the future, it will focus on attracting institutional users, providing physical assets, partner integrations, and credit infrastructure for traditional financial markets. Compound's TVL has dropped from a peak of $12 billion in 2021 to about $1.2 billion currently.The market is really quiet right now. CoinGecko's 24h data shows: $BTC at $64,132 with a trading volume of 20.3 billion; $ETH at $1,896 with a trading volume of 5.9 billion. BTC's trading volume is 3.4 times that of ETH, but its price is 33.8 times higher. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.0296, hovering near the lowest level since 2021.
Looking at the market details, BTC's volatility in the past 24 hours is less than 1.2%, and ETH's is about 1.8%, both at the lowest levels in nearly a month. The trading volume is even more striking: BTC's volume has shrunk by nearly 38% compared to a week ago, and ETH's by 44%. On the futures side, BTC's open interest has dropped to around 15.2 billion, and the funding rate has returned to a neutral 0.01%, indicating that long leverage has basically been cleared out. The Fear & Greed Index remains at 34, showing sentiment hasn't warmed up but there's no panic either.
For BTC, the 63,500-64,000 range is a key defense zone; as long as it doesn't break below, it's a strong consolidation. It needs a macro catalyst: Fed rate cut expectations, ETF net inflows, or a decline in the dollar index—any one of these could trigger movement first. ETH's issue is more straightforward: the selling pressure in the 1,850-1,900 range isn't heavy, but without institutional repricing and on-chain application demand, it just follows BTC.
BTC is waiting on macro triggers, ETH is waiting on ecosystem triggers. In the short term, I lean toward BTC confirming direction first, with ETH as a flexible position after a breakout. The calmer it is now, the more sudden the next move will be.
This is just my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.$SNDK August 13 was quite interesting. SanDisk and Applied Materials made news on the same day, one rising and one falling, which looks very disconnected when viewed together
SanDisk held an investor day, simply put, to reassure the market. Previously, everyone was most worried about whether the NAND cycle was nearing its end, but management just threw out a bunch of numbers: the market will reach 300 billion in 2026, 500 billion in 2027, and if supply is tight, it can last until 2028
And that's not all—they claim their gross margin can reach 80%—think about it: Nvidia is only 73%, Microsoft is only 69%. For a storage company to approach software companies' profit margins is already quite explosive. What's even more impressive is that they're not just empty promises—the $93.9 billion contract has already been signed, three out of eight customers are US hyperscale cloud providers, and a $15.5 billion buyback is also on the table. Even if calculated at the lowest contract price, the gross margin would still be 80%. Previously, the market didn't dare to buy SanDisk because it couldn't see the cycle. This time, the official stamp says "the cycle is still long," so funds rushed in that day, closing up nearly 14%
Applied Materials is in a bit of an awkward position. The financial reports themselves are flawless, with revenue and profit both exceeding expectations, and Q4 guidance stronger than the market expected. Advanced packaging grew by more than 40%. The problem is that it rose from 450 to 548, already digesting all the good news ahead of time. Moreover, this time the unexpected increase was just over 3%, so it's probably just a fluctuation right nowInstitutions' money has quietly shifted to $ETH, with a weekly net inflow of $2.85 billion, which is 5 times that of BTC.
Last week, there was a set of data circulating everywhere: from August 3 to 7, the US spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of $2.85 billion — a single-week historical high, more than 5 times the $548 million net inflow of the spot BTC ETF during the same period. Note, this data is from early August, not current, but its directional signal is very clear.
Then looking at the private large holders — Bitmine Immersion Technologies, an ETH treasury company, currently holds 5,815,164 ETH, valued at about $11 billion, which equals 4.8% of the total ETH network. Their chairman Tom Lee publicly stated they are only 96% away from their 5% target and are ready to go all in.
Alongside this, the WSI index has stayed above 50 for 6 consecutive days, reaching 66 this week. I have been monitoring large wallets in the industry; in the past week, there were two huge accumulation transactions — one discovered by Onchainlens, withdrawing 30,000 ETH ($57.2 million) from Coinbase Prime, and another withdrawing 50,000 ETH ($95.73 million) from a Fidelity-associated wallet. Together, these two transactions total 80,000 ETH, $150 million, distributed to new addresses — a typical cold wallet accumulation move.
So, overall, institutions and whales are quietly increasing their ETH holdings, but the price has not caught up yet. On-chain tracking shows that this $BTC short whale at the $125 million level is cutting losses again.
Today, when the price briefly broke through $65,000, he proactively reduced his position by 200 coins, taking another $243,000 loss on paper. The cumulative loss has climbed to $1.81 million. There are still 312 short positions left, with a nominal value of about $20.2 million, an unrealized loss of $368,000, and a liquidation price stuck at $65,078. Very close.
This is already the seventh stop-loss. A typical dull knife cutting losses. Previously, he had unrealized gains of over a million but didn’t exit; instead, he added to his position, resulting in a step-by-step passive situation. Once a whale’s mindset falls into "just wait a bit longer and it will come back," it’s often harder to get out than for retail investors.
In the short term, these large shorts continuously reducing positions may actually provide fuel for the rise—short covering itself is buying pressure. If the price pushes up a bit more, the liquidation risk will rapidly increase. The market has always been very sensitive to such "firm but continuously retreating" positions. Subsequent position changes are worth closely monitoring.$SNDK plummeted a lot today. My short position has currently broken even. But I don't plan to exit at this point because I believe it hasn't finished falling yet. It will continue to drop. First, there aren't many people bottom-fishing in the market right now, and second, the shorting pressure remains very strong. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. We can see that as its price plummeted, the contract open interest steadily declined, and the long-short ratio steadily increased. This indicates that many shorts have taken profits and exited the market. This is normal because the drop is quite significant. We should also note that although the price has fallen, the data shows that not much capital is bottom-fishing at this level. In other words, the market is still bearish at this position. Let's look at a longer time frame of its data. The data shows that its contract open interest is currently high, and the long-short ratio is low. This indicates that a lot of capital is shorting in the market. —————————————————— I currently don't want to exit. I personally believe $SNDK still has considerable room to fall. I want to wait and see a bit longer.