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Today, the US stock market fell again. $SNDK
And this time, not all sectors fell together; AI and chips, which were hot earlier, are clearly weaker.
I actually think this kind of trend is more interesting than all stocks rising together.
Because only after the market starts to differentiate can you truly see what the market is actually buying.
When market sentiment was good before, everyone chased any AI concept.
Now, after interest rates, oil prices, and bond yields have been pushed back, capital is becoming more selective. Today's US stock market was clearly affected by the rise in long-term US Treasury yields and oil prices.
This is actually a good thing.
Because the market can't just tell stories forever.
In the end, it has to come back to profitability.
What I care about most now is not how much the index has fallen.
But after the drop, which stocks have buyers.
Which stocks are being ignored.
These two details are very important.
Truly strong stocks won't easily lose support during a correction.
And those purely driven by sentiment usually look bad once the money withdraws.
Bitcoin is similar now.
When the price moves sideways, it seems especially boring on the surface.
But this phase is actually the best time to observe capital.
Who is accumulating, who is reducing positions, which direction is starting to have sustainability.
These things are much more meaningful than guessing "will it go up or down tomorrow" every day.
So I won't be too pessimistic about today's drop.
Market fluctuations are normal.
What is really worth worrying about is never the market falling.
But not knowing why you are buying at all.
As long as the logic remains, a correction might actually be the start of an opportunity reappearing. US Long-Term Treasury Yields Near Breakthrough Threshold
This time, it's a supply-driven "structural storm"
📈 The current rise in US long-term Treasury yields is quietly approaching a critical technical tipping point. However, the market should be cautious that the driving force this time may not stem from monetary policy missteps but from an unprecedented structural supply surplus—the dual expansion of sovereign debt and AI capital expenditure is creating sustained supply pressure in the bond market.
· 10-year Treasury yield: Threatening to break through the key resistance level of 4.8%.
· 30-year Treasury yield: Has already led the way by breaking through the long-term technical pressure zone, with a more direct trend.
"The rise in long-term yields is increasingly a supply issue rather than a central bank discipline issue."
— Rich Privorotsky, Head of Goldman Sachs Delta-one Trading Desk
🔍 Source of supply pressure: Sovereign deficits + AI capital expenditure
Privorotsky's core argument is that massive sovereign deficits and annual AI capital expenditure (possibly exceeding $1 trillion) are creating sustained supply pressure through the debt market.
· AI debt wave: Since the beginning of this year, AI-related companies have raised approximately $489 billion in global investment-grade, high-yield, and leveraged markets, already surpassing the full-year 2025 total ($322 billion).
· Investment-grade bonds: US dollar investment-grade bond issuance has exceeded $1.5 trillion this year, with 2026 expected to surpass the historical record set during the pandemic.
· Sovereign deficits: Although economic data has softened, hard constraints remain. Even with weaker data, the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise rates in a weak data environment to re-anchor long-term yields and flatten the yield curve.
⚠️ Technical signals: Breakout imminent, short squeeze risk rising
· 10-year yield: If it closes above 4.8%, the market may face a short squeeze rally. Breakouts after prolonged consolidation often create a "vacuum zone," significantly accelerating movement risk.
· 30-year yield: Has broken through multiple long-term resistance levels. If this breakout is confirmed, subsequent trends could be "quite ugly."
💥 Impact on equities: Rising valuation compression risk
Despite the 10-year yield rising from below 4% at the end of February to current levels, the Nasdaq 100 index has shown unusual resilience, significantly widening the divergence. Privorotsky believes this divergence will eventually be corrected through valuation multiple compression:
· Crowding-out effect: Higher real rates combined with massive public and AI capital demand will squeeze other sectors, and market downgrades have already reflected this.
· Historical pattern: Goldman Sachs data shows that when the 10-year yield rises more than 2 standard deviations, it often significantly drags on the stock market.
📊 Risk trigger: Surge in rate volatility
· Current status: Rate volatility (MOVE index) and the S&P 500 divergence is quite evident but has not yet truly surged.
· Key observation: Once rate volatility breaks out, it will be an important signal for equity risk repricing.
· Hedging window: S&P 500 options implied volatility is at its lowest since January, making hedging costs relatively cheap. Analysts recommend taking advantage of this window.
📌 Conclusion
US long-term Treasury yields stand at the intersection of a technical breakout and structural supply shock. If yields confirm a breakthrough of key resistance, rate volatility will rise accordingly, and equity market adjustments may far exceed current market pricing. The current low implied volatility offers a rare hedging window, but this window may not last long.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 In the past, people especially liked to group US stocks and Bitcoin together.
When US stocks rise, the crypto market rises.
When US stocks fall, the crypto market also falls.
As long as liquidity comes out, everyone thinks all risk assets will soar together.
But now this simple logic is becoming less and less effective.
Recently, during the US stock market adjustment, the most obvious was the AI hardware sector. What the market is really worried about is not "the end of the US stock market," but that some AI assets have risen too fast and their valuations need to be digested again.
The logic for Bitcoin is not exactly the same.
It now pays more attention to macro liquidity, institutional funds, and market expectations for future policies.
So I actually don’t like summarizing the two markets with one sentence anymore.
Because they are becoming more mature and have their own pricing logic.
In the US stock market, funds look for certainty in profit growth.
In the crypto market, funds look for liquidity and new narratives.
That’s why, even when facing the same macro news, the two markets can completely move in different directions.
I used to like looking for "stock-crypto correlation."
Now I prefer to look for "capital differentiation."
Because the real big opportunities are often hidden in differentiation.
When all assets rise together, it’s hard to know who is truly strong.
But when the market starts to differentiate, the strong become increasingly obvious.
So now when I watch the market, I’m actually not in a hurry.
First, see where the money goes.
Then decide whether to follow.
This order is much more important than guessing rises or falls. Nvidia's adjustment today is actually not surprising at all.
It surged too much earlier, and market expectations were too high. At the slightest sign of trouble, funds will first take profits. Today, AI-related stocks are generally under pressure, and the Nasdaq is clearly weaker than the Dow.
But now when I look at the AI sector, it's quite different from before.
Before, when looking at AI, I focused more on the story.
Whose model is powerful, who gets big orders, who cooperates with giants.
Now I prefer to look at one thing:
Whether these investments can ultimately turn into revenue and profit.
Because after AI truly enters the second phase, the market will definitely become more realistic.
You can tell stories, but in the end, you still have to make money.
This is also why recently the volatility in storage and chip sectors has been especially large. Earlier, funds chased crazily, but once valuations got high, at the slightest worry, selling immediately appeared.
So if I were to buy now, I wouldn't rush in just because a stock dropped 5%.
I would first ask myself three questions.
First, is the industry demand still there?
Second, has the company's profit outlook changed?
Third, at this price, am I willing to hold for a year?
If I can answer "yes" to all three questions, then I would seriously consider it.
The truly comfortable buying point for stocks is often not the lowest point.
But when the market starts to doubt it, yet the fundamentals have not deteriorated.
I actually prefer this kind of opportunity.Recently, the US stock market has finally started to show some decent corrections.
The Nasdaq has fallen more noticeably than the S&P, and big names like Nvidia and Microsoft are also starting to feel the pressure, with AI hardware being even more obvious. Today's market is actually quite interesting; the stocks that surged the most earlier have now become the places where profit-taking is most evident.
Many people's first reaction when they see this kind of movement is: "Has AI peaked?"
I, on the other hand, wouldn't jump to that conclusion so quickly.
Because during a rise, valuations are pushed very high by capital, so a correction is perfectly normal. What really needs to be looked at is not how many points it falls today, but whether the company's future profit expectations have been damaged.
These two things are very different.
If it's just that valuations are too high and capital is taking profits, then I'm actually willing to wait. Because when a good company falls, at least there is logic to study.
But if orders, profits, and industry demand really start to decline, then the nature of the situation is completely different.
The crypto world follows the same principle.
Bitcoin hasn't experienced a particularly destructive move along with the US stock market, which I think actually indicates that capital hasn't completely left risk assets. The market is just finding a new balance.
So I won't change direction just because of one day's drop.
Don't blindly get bullish when prices rise, and don't rush to be bearish during corrections.
The things truly worth buying are never because they fell today, but because after falling, I find they are still the same thing.
That is the opportunity I am truly willing to wait for. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
Xiaomi's Q2 earnings report is freshly released, with a bustling revenue of hundreds of billions, but a closer look reveals a mix of "half seawater, half flame."
The automotive side looks impressive, with quarterly deliveries breaking 100,000 units and strong sales momentum, clearly the village's hope. But the reality is harsh: despite selling many cars, it is still burning cash and losing money, currently only able to hold the scene and not yet able to shoulder the main profit burden.
In contrast, the traditional business of smartphones has moved upmarket, with phones selling at higher prices, but unfortunately, shipment volumes have dropped sharply. The rise in storage chip prices has directly eaten into a large portion of profits, and the gross margin is being ground down, leaving the core business somewhat weak.
It's quite a dilemma: cars are the dream for the future but have not yet reached profitability; smartphones are the current livelihood but face short-term cost challenges.
Is the automotive segment going to take over and turn things around, or will smartphones emerge first from the cyclical slump?
Friends, let's chat:
Do you believe Xiaomi's cars will become the true savior? For those holding positions, how do you plan to act after reading the earnings report? $BTC rebounded near $64,000, but the real signal is not that it rose, rather that the market has started trading on the idea that “interest rates aren’t as scary.”
Around August 18, $BTC prices returned to the $63,000 to $64,000 range, with news mentioning it once traded near $64,300. This price level is interesting because it’s neither a strong breakout nor a runaway drop, but a typical macro waiting state. The market isn’t suddenly falling back in love with crypto; it’s because expectations for further US rate hikes have cooled, giving risk assets a short-term breather.
But this breather isn’t stable. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains high, the Fed meeting minutes and Jackson Hole are still ahead, and geopolitical risks and oil prices continue to cause disturbances. For $BTC, the $64,000 level is not just a technical point but a crossroads of risk appetite and interest rate expectations. As long as the market believes rates will continue to suppress risk assets, there will be selling pressure above BTC; as long as the market believes the Fed will eventually ease, there will be buyers below BTC.
$ETH’s situation is more delicate. Around $1,900, it faces not only macro pressure but also yield comparisons. BTC has no yield; the market buys it for scarcity and non-sovereign asset status. ETH has staking yields, which institutions compare against US Treasuries. If Treasury yields remain high, ETH’s on-chain yields lose appeal. Only when rates decline and risk appetite returns will ETH’s narrative as a yield asset become more compelling.
So BTC and ETH are not rebounding in the same way right now. BTC’s rebound shows the market is willing to buy some macro hedges again; ETH’s rebound requires proof that on-chain finance and yield logic are still worth allocating to. The former is easier to move first; the latter has greater elasticity but more conditions.
This is why today we can’t just look at “BTC rising.” What really matters is whether ETH can keep up when BTC rises. If BTC continues to recover from around $64,000 but ETH remains stuck near $1,900, it means funds are still in defensive allocations; if ETH starts to strengthen relative to BTC, it means market risk appetite is truly spreading to on-chain finance.
BTC is now waiting for the Fed to loosen its grip; ETH is waiting for the market to believe again in on-chain yields. One looks at macro, the other at applications. Both rebounding does not mean the same story. "NVIDIA's Biggest Future Challenge, I Think, Is Not Competition but the Market's Too High Expectations"
What is NVIDIA's biggest problem right now?
Many would say competition.
They would mention other chip companies.
They would mention the speed of AI development.
Of course, all these have an impact.
But I think there is an even more realistic problem:
The market's expectations are too high.
When a company is ordinary, exceeding expectations is easy.
Because no one has high hopes.
But NVIDIA is different now.
The market already assumes it is very strong.
So in the future, if it wants its stock price to continue rising significantly, it needs more than just excellence.
It needs to continuously surpass everyone's imagination.
This difficulty will only increase.
So if in the future NVIDIA shows:
Good performance.
Profit growth.
But the stock price reacts moderately.
I don't think that's surprising.
It's not that the company is failing.
It's that the market is starting to reprice.
When I look at companies like this, I separate two things.
Whether the company has value.
Whether the stock is expensive now.
Many people easily confuse the two.
They think if the company is great, the stock must go up.
But that's not true.
Even the best companies can be overpriced.
So I will still pay attention to NVIDIA in the future.
But I won't just look at whether it can still rise.
I want to see:
To what extent the market's demands on it have already risen.
This factor often determines the room for growth afterward. In the past, the market has been debating whether BTC is digital gold or a risk asset. Sometimes it behaves like gold (rising during geopolitical conflicts), and sometimes like the Nasdaq (falling when interest rate expectations change). This "dual identity" confuses investors, but in fact, this is a characteristic of the transition period—BTC is transitioning from a "high-volatility tech narrative asset" to a "global alternative reserve asset." This process cannot proceed linearly. Institutional entry requires custody, auditing, accounting rules, tax frameworks, and compliance channels, which are still under development. Sovereign funds and pensions have longer observation periods; their decision cycles are not weeks but years. Therefore, we will see $BTC still follow macro swings in the short term, but the long-term lows are continuously rising, which is precisely a feature of the transition—old narratives are fading, new narratives are being established, but prices will fluctuate during the alternation. A true reserve asset does not need to prove itself every day. It does not need new applications launched every quarter, founders telling stories, or roadmaps to be fulfilled. It only needs to have people willing to hold, willing to take on, and willing to buy in panic even in the worst environments. When the market no longer evaluates $BTC with the two-faced rhetoric of "rising means digital gold, falling means risk asset," maturity will truly be complete.BTC and ETH correlation reaches as high as 0.88: Does dual-coin allocation really count as true risk diversification?
Dual-coin allocation can reduce the risk of a single project but struggles to hedge against systemic volatility in the crypto market. Based on the recent 30-day daily returns, the correlation coefficient between $BTC and ETH is about 0.88; extending to 90 days, it’s about 0.89, indicating they still move highly in tandem, with BTC’s trend changes clearly influencing ETH.
But 0.88 does not mean they are completely bound. ETH is also affected by staking yields, DeFi activity, on-chain fees, and upgrade expectations, so it may outperform BTC in certain periods or fall more when risk appetite declines. The rotation potential precisely comes from this correlation being less than 1.
Therefore, BTC+ETH is better suited as a “core crypto asset portfolio” rather than a truly diversified allocation. If the goal is to reduce drawdowns, the key is not just buying half of each, but controlling total exposure, setting rebalancing rules, and monitoring whether correlation continues to rise. The higher the correlation, the more the dual-coin portfolio resembles an amplified version of BTC; only when $ETH’s independent narrative materializes will the allocation’s value truly emerge.The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rebounded more than 20% from the July 29 low, returning to a technical bull market. The bear market lasted only 21 days, driven by a single factor — memory.
$MU: AI breaks the cycle
New Street upgraded Micron to "Buy" with a target price of $1250, stating that AI breaks the boom-and-bust cycle of memory, with a market value expected to reach $2 trillion to $3 trillion by 2030. Q2 quarterly revenue was 41.5 billion, but the stock price still fell 23% from the 52-week high of $1255. There is room for growth, but also significant divergence.
$SNDK: Confidence at 8.88%
On August 17, SanDisk rose 8.88%, Micron rose 4.13%, and SK Hynix rose 3.04%. The direct catalyst was Anthropic and OpenAI disclosing impressive financial data, easing concerns about AI capital expenditures. Eight major customers have locked in four-year supply contracts, with a minimum contract value of $93.9 billion, orders locked until 2028.
$NVDA: The gap is widening
TrendForce data shows that in Q2, the top five global NAND brands' combined revenue increased 77% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $68.87 billion. AI server procurement remains robust, enterprise SSD demand is strong, and overall supply is insufficient. The chairman of SK Group predicts "next year will most likely be the year with the largest supply gap in memory chips."
With fundamentals improving, stock prices have also rebounded significantly from the bottom. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index returning to a bull market is a signal, but the risk of chasing highs also exists. Micron fell from $1255 to $972 in just one month. Can this AI narrative break the cycle? Judge for yourself. FIL/USDT Market Update & Best Prediction
Looking at the daily chart for FIL/USDT, Filecoin is currently trading at $FIL 0.6205, marking a sharp drop of 7.75% for the day. The chart shows a heavy downward slide breaking out of recent ranges, moving down from July highs near $FIL 0.7845 to test support near the $FIL 0.6099 level.
Key Technical Takeaways:
Current Price Action: FIL is sitting well below its short-term moving averages (MA5 at $0.6635, MA10 at $0.6780, and MA20 at $0.6945), which shows strong downward momentum and heavy selling pressure.
Support & Resistance: Immediate support is found right around the $0.60 – $0.61 zone. If buyers fail to step in here, the price risks exploring uncharted lows. On the upside, bulls need to reclaim the $0.67 – $0.70 resistance zone to reverse the trend.
Historical Context & Past Cycles: Crypto markets are known for extreme cycles. Looking back at its history, Filecoin experienced a massive all-time high of over $236 back in early 2021, followed by years of heavy multi-year pullbacks and tight consolidation phases. Like many altcoins that suffered deep corrections from their peaks, FIL has faced long periods of cooling before finding major macro bottoms.Discipline yourself.
Three rules must be followed:
Keep single trade losses within your principal, and exit immediately when stop loss is triggered.
When profit reaches the target, protect part of the profit first, and let the remaining position follow the trend.
Never blindly add to losing positions; don’t cover mistakes with more mistakes.
If your market judgment is wrong, you can start over. If the principal is gone, there is no next chance.
Many want to turn things around with contracts but overlook the most important point: surviving is the only way to have the chance to make money. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Latest updates on the US and Iran on August 18: Whether the US military fights or not, Trump has already lost this war! 1. Iranian officials sent signals of military conflict, threatening that if the US failed to comply within the specified period, war would reignite. From diplomatic pressure to military pressure, Iran's intensity increased, causing the US-Iran military risk countdown to start #黄金站上4430美元, and option funds turned bullish. 2. The Houthis began attacking Saudi warships near the Red Sea, clearly spilling over from the US-Iran geopolitical risk. 3. Media reports indicated that Saudi Aramco had clearly expanded its crude oil export system bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Clearly, the worst scenario has been made for the long-term unfavorable situation in the US-Iran situation. 4. Turkey's Erdogan and Trump speak Mandarin and request to act as a regional mediator in the US-Iran situation. As a NATO member and bordering Iran, this signal signals that Europe is restless and is beginning to try to mediate between the US and Iran as a proxy. This is seen as a positive signal, but the short-term effect is unlikely to be seen. 5. Kpler statistics show that on Monday, six cargo ships passed through the strait, but there were no VLCC or large LNG tankers, and the usual recovery count is only a rebound, not a recovery. The actual situation for peers remains poor. 6. On Tuesday, August 18, a cargo ship attempting to pass through the strait was attacked. It is still unclear whether it was an attack by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The recent appearance of another suspected attack undoubtedly worsens the safety of crossing the strait. 7. Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco attempted to load three VLC vessels between August 12 and 16#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
SanDisk closed up about 8.9% on August 17, with the market pricing in "long-term certainty." I believe these long-term agreements can indeed reduce NAND cycle volatility, but the $93.9 billion should not be directly considered as profit.
Currently, 10 NBM contracts involve 8 customers, with a weighted average term of over 4 years and a maximum of 5 years, covering about half of FY2027 and about two-thirds of FY2028 bit shipments. The $93.9 billion is the total value calculated based on contract floor prices, $91.1 billion represents remaining performance obligations, and customer deposits and financial guarantees amount to about $16.5 billion. Pricing also includes fixed, floating, and upper and lower limits.
It’s very much like a mining company selling hash rate in advance: it can lock in demand during the off-season, but may not fully benefit from spot price increases during the peak season.
So I won’t chase this bullish candle, only allocating one-third of my planned position. If next quarter’s revenue falls within the guidance range of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, non-GAAP gross margin holds at 83%, and adjusted free cash flow rate remains close to 50%, I will add; if agreements increase but gross margin continuously falls below 80%, I will reduce my position.
The most valuable aspect of long-term agreements is raising the performance floor, not guaranteeing the profit ceiling. $SNDK $TRX /USDT Market Prediction
* Current Price: 0.33237 USDT
* Trend: Up +0.31%, holding near recent gains.
Prediction:
TRX is trading nicely above its moving averages with strong support near 0.3280 USDT. If buying pressure continues, a push toward the 0.3387 USDT resistance level is likely. A break below support could retest 0.3240 USDT.
Are you holding TRX right now?
TRX. $TRX $TRXThe White House crypto meeting is hot, but what $BTC and $ETH fear most is "many meetings, slow rules."
Trump attended the White House crypto and prediction market meeting, and this topic has a lot of traffic today. Names like SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Gemini, Ripple, Nasdaq, CME appearing in the same scene indicate that crypto is no longer a fringe topic but a problem that must be addressed within the structure of the U.S. financial market. The short-term market naturally gets excited, and both $BTC and $ETH can benefit from this regulatory clarity expectation.
The problem is, the market is no longer the one from 2021 that would blindly rush in after hearing "support innovation." Now the funds are more realistic. The Clarity Act has not advanced yet, the SEC crypto rules meeting has been postponed before, and stablecoin regulations are still in process. Meetings can generate traffic, but institutions want texts, boundaries, and implementation details. Without rules landing, the hype can easily turn into a one-day market move.
For $BTC, the significance of the White House meeting mainly lies in expanding compliance entry points. BTC already has ETFs, and institutions find it easier to explain: digital gold, fixed supply, non-sovereign asset, macro hedge. It doesn't need regulators to re-prove what it is; what it needs is smoother channels like banking, custody, wealth management, and retirement accounts. For BTC, the meeting's benefit is "easier to buy in the future."
For $ETH, the meeting's significance is more complex. ETH is not a single reserve asset; behind it are staking, DeFi, stablecoins, RWA, L2, and smart contract applications. The clearer the regulation, the higher ETH's ceiling; the more ambiguous the regulation, the easier it is for ETH to be blocked by institutional compliance departments. ETH needs not just entry points but boundaries for on-chain financial activities.
So this White House meeting is not the same kind of positive for BTC and ETH. BTC benefits from low-controversy assets being institutionally accepted, while ETH benefits from the complex financial system having a chance to be recognized by rules. The former is faster, the latter bigger but slower.
If after the meeting there are only slogans without rules, BTC might still hold up due to its simplicity, but ETH will continue to be weighed down by complexity. If regulatory texts truly advance after the meeting, ETH's resilience might be stronger because it has more things that can be repriced on it.
Politics gives crypto traffic; rules give crypto capital. BTC gets the entry first; ETH waits for boundaries. What the market is really trading today is not the White House photo op but whether the U.S. will pull crypto out of the gray area into the formal market. Cross-market risk appetite linkage tightens, and the pressure to squeeze out excess valuation in AI concepts is spreading from US stocks and Chinese concept stocks to crypto assets. Baidu plunged nearly 10% after earnings, dragging down Pony.ai and iQIYI, while Zhipu's Hong Kong shares also fell nearly 17%, indicating that the secondary market's performance fulfillment requirements for the AI narrative have comprehensively increased. If the US dollar interest rate expectations remain high and US tech stocks continue to adjust, the crypto AI concept sector lacking performance support will face a stronger valuation reappraisal. The key observation indicator is whether risk funds accelerate flowing into defensive assets such as gold, accompanied by a continued shrinkage in trading volume of high-premium targets.
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 #Anthropic年化营收达650亿美元Crypto Assets Amid the US Treasury Yield Storm: Short-Term Pain and Long-Term Narrative Divergence
---#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
US Treasury yields have reached their highest levels since 2007, causing systemic sell-offs in global risk assets, and the crypto market is no exception. With short-term liquidity tightening and risk-free rates surpassing 5%, traditional capital allocation preferences have clearly shifted, putting pressure on both tech stocks and Bitcoin simultaneously. Some institutional models indicate that if rates remain elevated, BTC could retreat to the $50,000 range, with ETH following suit in volatility.
However, subtle changes are occurring in the medium- to long-term logic. Major official holders such as China, Japan, and the UK continue to reduce their US Treasury holdings, signaling a loosening foundation of US dollar credit. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s alternative reserve value as "digital gold" is being reconsidered. Should sovereign credit risks become more pronounced, crypto assets may become a safe-haven choice for some funds, with some institutions raising year-end targets to $100,000.
The current market stands at a crossroads of expectation battles, with neither bulls nor bears holding overwhelming evidence. The short-term interest rate trajectory and long-term monetary credit evolution form two distinctly different scenarios. Investors need to independently assess the timing trade-offs based on their own risk tolerance.
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#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 ETH's actual volatility risk is 1.36 times that of BTC: Could the same position size be a misallocation?
Treating BTC and $ETH as "similar coins" for trading is a hidden risk source many overlook.
Based on the 14-day Average True Range (ATR), BTC's daily volatility is about 2.16% of its current price, while ETH's is about 2.92%. In other words, the unit price volatility risk of ETH is roughly 1.36 times that of BTC. This difference may seem small, but when applied to actual position sizes, the consequences are completely different.
Assuming a trader allocates $10,000 each to $BTC and ETH and uses the same stop-loss ratio. The stop-loss line for BTC requires a 2.16% move to be triggered, but ETH could hit the stop-loss due to normal daily fluctuations. The usual result is: the directional judgment is correct, but the position is shaken out, and then the price moves as expected.
A more reasonable approach is to size positions according to volatility rather than equally dividing principal. To equalize risk between the two trades, the ETH position should be reduced to about three-quarters of BTC's size (2.16 ÷ 2.92), and the stop-loss distance should be correspondingly widened, or keep the stop-loss ratio unchanged and use a smaller nominal principal to hedge the higher volatility.
The essence of position management is not "how much you buy," but "how much volatility you bear." Ignoring this, the same capital allocation can result in actual risk exposure differing by more than one-third.Just a heartfelt ramble 😌 The longer you work in this field, the more you realize that the hardest thing isn't picking the right direction, but dealing with the two painful situations: "missing out" and "being stuck in a losing position." You have to learn to distinguish which is more costly. Missing out at worst means you didn't make a profit, but the money is still in your pocket; being stuck means real money is flowing out. But strangely, most people fear missing out far more than being stuck—so they’d rather chase highs and get stuck than watch others profit. Actually, having an empty position is the safest state, but we experience it as the most agonizing. When you can become a bit indifferent to "others making money," your account will probably stabilize. Let's encourage each other 🫶Brothers, I was browsing the trading software today and suddenly realized something: the biggest problem in the crypto space right now isn’t the price drop, it’s that the money is still there, but the heart is no longer in it.
Have you noticed that the busiest on the exchange’s transaction leaderboard are no longer just coins? Stock-tokenized products like $SNDK are even hotter than $BTC, with big volatility and big stories. The funds are clearly still lying in the exchange, but they’re no longer on coins. How to put it? It’s like the child is still yours, but already calls someone else dad.
Look at those altcoins, $CORE peaked at 6.9, now 0.02. If you bought $10,000 at the high, it’s now worth just $29, a total loss. $LAB is even worse, peaked at 20, now 0.08, countless people liquidated. So many rushed in with their hard-earned money, hoping to make a big gain from a small investment, but ended up as the house’s ATM. This is how the crypto space works now: find a hot buzzword, post a meme, pump the market cap to the sky, then it all falls apart. No new narratives, no new rhythm.
Exchanges aren’t stupid either; they’ve discovered a new world: moving traditional assets onto the blockchain can attract a user base much larger than crypto’s. So now everyone is fighting for traditional finance users. Who still wants to invest in crypto projects? It’s simple logic: if you can buy SanDisk, why gamble on thin air?
$BTC has shown some signs these past two days, after a long period of low-volume sideways movement, it moved a bit. But honestly, I don’t think this is a trend reversal, more like a last gasp. Most likely it will keep oscillating between 62,000 and 65,000, shaking people out until they’re exhausted. I still have a little cash hanging on, not expecting it to surge now, just using it as a probe to observe market sentiment.
That said, I still don’t think crypto is ending here. This is just cyclical pain; once we get through it, there will be mean reversion. At most two years, it’s not like we can’t wait. At this stage, it’s about who still has bullets and who can hold steady without panicking. Low-volume grinding is the worst time to get itchy hands. Wait for a real new story, wait for incremental funds to return, then it’s not too late to get back in. For now, just surviving is better than anything.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Bitcoin has been consolidating for two months, a calm before the storm?
📊 Market Status: Extremely Calm
· Price Trend: After intense volatility in early 2026, it significantly flattened during the summer.
· Trading Volume: Spot trading volume has dropped to a cycle low, with the market showing fatigue toward news.
· Volatility: Realized volatility has sharply declined.
· Options Pricing: 1-month implied volatility is only 32%, well below the annual average of 42%.
⏳ Historical Reflection: A Replay of Summer 2023
The current situation is highly similar to summer 2023:
· Then: Also low volatility, range-bound, with the market waiting for a catalyst.
· Afterwards: After selling pressure cleared, a surge of about 50% occurred from October to year-end.
· Insight: Extreme calm is often a prelude to a major move, not the end.
🔍 Core Logic
· Current Difference: Catalysts differ (focused on macro policies and regulation), but market psychology remains consistent.
· Key Signal: Low volatility alone is not bullish, but combined with waning selling momentum and oversold range characteristics, the probability of history repeating is increasing.
📌 Conclusion
Market silence may be the brewing of a turning point. The explosive move in autumn 2023 provides important reference for the current consolidation—underneath the calm, the next wave of momentum may be accumulating.
Note: History does not simply repeat, but rhythms are often strikingly similar. Closely watch macro and regulatory developments, and patiently await a breakout. 🚀
$BTC
#BTC沉睡供应创新高，稀缺性再受关注 Mark a turning point for this memory in storage. Yesterday was still a melt-up—SanDisk surged nearly +9% overnight, Samsung restarted OLED production lines, Micron followed the rise, and the community was full of "storage supercycle"; today at the open it directly melted down, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 3.7%, SanDisk giving back 5%. The same narrative was told as two different stories within 24 hour#XiaomiQ2Earnings #30YYieldHits2007High #SanDiskLongTermDeals SK Hynix employees' average salary is 144 million KRW, AI money starts flowing to ordinary people
In the first half of this year, SK Hynix employees' average salary reached 144 million KRW, equivalent to about over 700,000 RMB.
Seeing this number, many people's first reaction might be: South Korean semiconductor employees are making too much money.
But from a market perspective, this is not just a "high salary news" but also a noteworthy AI industry signal.
Why can SK Hynix offer such high salaries?
The core reason is AI.
With the rapid development of large models like ChatGPT, global data centers' demand for AI computing power continues to grow. GPU demand has surged, and high-end GPUs rely on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory).
SK Hynix is an important supplier in the global HBM market.
The greater the AI computing power demand, the stronger the HBM demand, and the higher the profits for chip companies. After companies make money, they ultimately pass some of the profits to employees through bonuses, salaries, and talent competition.
This actually forms a very clear industrial chain:
AI boom → computing power growth → GPU demand increase → HBM demand surge → chip company profit growth → high-end talent salary increase.
The wealth brought by AI is spreading from AI companies to the entire industry chain.
In the future, besides AI model companies, chips, HBM, advanced packaging, semiconductor equipment, data centers, and even power infrastructure may become beneficiaries of the AI wave.
#Hynix advancing NAND expansion $BTC is pumping, but ETF flows aren't fully confirming the move.
Yes, we're seeing inflows — but outflows are still present, suggesting institutional demand hasn't yet reached the level needed to validate this rally.
If strong buying from smart money doesn't follow, this move could prove fragile.
Stay alert. The next ETF flow data could be key.SNDK, even after a 99% drop from its peak, is still dominated by selling pressure. When dividing the factors already reflected in the price from those not yet accounted for, the key question at this point becomes clear. How much of the additional downside risk of SNDK has already been priced in, and what verification signals must be confirmed for a rebound? To summarize the facts from the original text, SNDK is trapped in repeated liquidation cascades and strong selling pressure after falling more than 99% from its peak. During the same period, BICO, BEAT, ALLO, KAITO, APR, and others showed sharp rebounds, while SNDK continues to face downward pressure without confirmation of spot demand. The current market judgment is that without strong buying power, it is difficult to confirm a trend reversal. The significance of this event for the market structure goes beyond the issue of a single altcoin. SNDK's price behavior demonstrates a typical liquidation spiral structure in the derivatives market, where long position liquidations lead to spot selling. The altcoins that rebounded have spot demand momentum2026.8.18 Evening Market Analysis Summary
On Tuesday evening, the market was livelier than yesterday but showed significant divergence—$BTC stood out alone while most other major coins were sluggish. Bitcoin rose steadily from the intraday low of 63,295 USD to around 64,610 USD, currently hovering near 64,300 USD. The rebound is real, with institutional ETFs seeing large inflows for two consecutive days—Fidelity's FBTC had a single-day net inflow of 111.9 million USD, and yesterday the total net inflow for US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached 298 million USD, marking a nearly two-month high. However, the price is still oscillating within the 62,000-65,000 USD range without a true breakout. Resistance is significant between 64,500-65,000 USD, and short-term support is at 63,500 USD.
$ETH remains stuck below 1,900 USD, hovering around 1,896 USD. This rebound is entirely dragged by Bitcoin, lacking an independent bullish structure. There is heavy selling pressure around 1,920-1,925 USD; if it can't hold above that, it may retreat to around 1,850 USD. However, Ethereum spot ETFs also saw a net inflow of 30.85 million USD yesterday, indicating institutions are slowly accumulating, though the price hasn't followed yet.
$SOL rose less than 1% today to about 76 USD, finally breaking out of the frustrating 74-77 USD range. ARK Invest's purchase of the 3iQ SOL Staking ETF gave the market a boost. But futures positions are skewed long; if 74-75 USD support fails, watch out for a downward move.
$XRP fell below 1 USD again, trading near 0.9985 USD. Whale trading volume surged 280% but failed to pull the price back up. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are pressing down from above, making a recovery difficult.
$DOGE remains flat at 0.07 USD. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the tightest in three years, forming a straight line—nothing much to say.
$BNB returned to the 600 USD level, trading between 605-607 USD. Short-term moving averages are supporting it, but if it can't hold 600 USD, it may test support near 550 USD again.
$ADA dropped 1% to 0.175 USD following the announcement of the Dijkstra hard fork plan. After consecutive declines, it’s catching a breath, but a reversal is still premature.
$LINK took a breather near 9.5 USD after rising 14% this week. The 9.5-10 USD range is a hurdle. The US LINK spot ETF saw a single-day inflow of 2.07 million USD, a bright spot.
Overall, market sentiment remains cautious—Bitcoin is rising but altcoins are stagnant, a typical sign of funds clustering in existing holdings. ETF inflow data looks good, but whether prices follow is another matter. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, a new high since 2007, continuing to pressure risk assets. There is a rebound, but its sustainability is questionable—chasing highs in a low-volume, divergent market often leads to being stuck; watching more and acting less is the safer approach.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注
#黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 US Treasury yields fall, $BTC rushes to $64,000: Will the next liquidity rally favor BTC or $ETH first?
As US Treasury yields drop, money starts seeking direction. Today's rebound isn't evenly distributed: BTC has already touched around 64,000, while ETH is still hovering near 1896, with completely different rhythms. On CoinGecko, BTC dominance is 56.5%, ETH dominance only 10%, with a market cap weight difference of over 5.6 times. Liquidity is just beginning to show signs of returning, and institutions' first choice remains BTC—ETF channels are mature, the market cap is large enough, and there's no need for much storytelling; just get on board first.
However, an interesting data point: based on 64,000 and 1896, the BTC/ETH ratio is still around 33.7, indicating ETH has clearly not kept pace. This lag usually doesn't mean ETH is weak but rather that funds haven't entered the risk-on phase yet. When rate cut expectations are realized and risk appetite rises, ETH's elasticity will be greater because its narrative isn't about safe-haven but about whether DeFi, staking, and L2 application layers can reignite.
So my judgment is: during an easing cycle, BTC is responsible for attracting incremental funds at the door, while ETH amplifies risk appetite in the second phase. The first stop is most likely BTC, and the second stop will be ETH. Don't just shout Crypto on rate cuts; watch which side the funds take first.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.Note a piece of news overshadowed by storage and earnings reports but worth highlighting: The International Atomic Energy Agency said the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was attacked by drones today, with an explosion at the commuting station causing 16 casualties. Officials called this the "most serious incident" in the plant's history. The market's first reaction to such news is usually to ignore it—because it doesn't directly impact any earnings or data. But this is exactly the characteristic of tail risk: normally priced at zero, but once out of control, it causes nonlinear shocks. I'm not telling you to adjust your positions because of this, but just a reminder—while everyone is focused on US stocks and storage, the variables that can truly change risk appetite are often hidden in corners where no one is betting. Protect your bullets; don't fully deploy your positions during calm times. Following a geopolitical line that is cooling down. In the past two days, there were incidents of ships being hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz and a nuclear power plant accident, creating a tense atmosphere; but this morning Trump came out to set the tone: the strait is open and normal, mines have been cleared, the naval blockade is effective, and he emphasized that there are no negotiations with Iran underway. The translation is— the situation is temporarily held down, but the structural confrontation is not resolved. For the market, this kind of "neither escalation nor resolution" stalemate mainly serves to raise the risk premium on oil prices, rather than triggering a wave of safe-haven buying. The crypto community always likes to link Middle East news to "bullish BTC," but throughout this round, oil and gold have reacted much more honestly than crypto. Let's wait and see.Even though both are spot ETFs, the institutional participation logic for BTC and ETH is completely different.
This time, I am right.
 Many people assume that as long as the ETH spot ETF is launched, it will replicate the capital boom of BTC, but in reality, there is a difficult gap to cross.
For the $BTC spot ETF, institutions can simply buy and hold without needing to participate in any on-chain operations, purely treating it as a broad asset allocation.
For the $ETH spot ETF, most existing products do not support staking. This means institutions buying ETF shares do not receive staking yield.
One of the biggest attractions of ETH for institutions is the staking yield, but the ETF directly eliminates this part of the income.
This creates a real situation:
Institutions optimistic about ETH staking yield prefer to stake directly on-chain rather than buy the ETF;
Institutions buying the ETF mostly do simple risk exposure allocation, and their capital commitment will be much more conservative.$XAU spot breaks through the $4430 level, with a surge in large bullish option demand on the derivatives side, and a substantial reversal in option skew. This indicates that on-exchange liquidity is rapidly shifting from passive hedging to an active dominant trend. Coupled with continuous inflows into spot ETFs, a bullish positive feedback loop is forming. If the spot side can sustain high-level turnover, the premium expansion of option buying will further strengthen the upward trend. Once derivative positions concentrate on liquidation and net capital inflows slow down, liquidity premium may quickly retract. The subsequent focus will be on the net subscription scale of gold ETFs.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #英伟达支持OpenAI俄亥俄AI工厂Decentralization does not override the law
South Korea ordered the blocking of Polymarket, calling it a winner-takes-all market and an illegal gambling service. The regulator emphasized: non-custodial nature, smart contracts, and the absence of KRW do not exempt the platform from the law.
For prediction markets, this is more important than blocking: settlements can be on-chain, but access and rules remain jurisdictional. The next risk is liquidity geoblocking.
Prediction markets — fintech or gambling?
#Polymarket #DeFiBTC and ETH Safe-Haven Capital Flow Analysis (August 18)
Currently, the safe-haven capital driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East primarily favors gold, the US dollar, and crude oil, without large-scale inflows into BTC and ETH. At this stage, the market still classifies BTC and ETH as risk assets; when geopolitical panic arises, short-term safe-haven buying rarely flows actively into the crypto market.
At the institutional level, BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows this week, with institutional funds actively reducing exposure to crypto assets. Facing a macro environment of rising inflation and higher US Treasury yields, short-term allocation willingness is weak. ETH-ETF outflows are smaller, indicating relatively mild capital divergence. On-chain long-term whales withdrawing tokens or staking and hoarding coins represent long-term strategic positioning rather than short-term safe-haven inflows. Such funds do not move quickly with short-term geopolitical news and focus more on multi-month asset allocation cycles.
The existing capital safe-haven path within the market mainly involves withdrawing from highly volatile altcoins and returning to the two major mainstream assets, BTC and ETH. This is an internal capital rotation within the crypto market, not new external safe-haven capital entering. The scale of this internal capital switching is limited, providing only some resilience to the market but unlikely to drive a trend upward.
Only when geopolitical conflicts escalate to the point of impacting global monetary credit and cross-border payment channels face risks will Bitcoin’s "supra-sovereign asset" narrative be activated, and external safe-haven capital will enter on a large scale. This stage has not yet been reached.
This article is for market review purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.Note a crack in the Chinese concept stocks. Today, after Baidu's earnings report, its stock opened down nearly 10%, marking the largest drop since June. Pony.ai and iQIYI followed suit and also plunged. The focus here is not on a single earnings report, but on the market's patience with the "China AI narrative" wearing thin — recently, Zhizhu's Hong Kong stock once fell nearly 17% intraday, breaking below HKD 1000. Looking at these two events together, it's the same signal: companies telling AI stories are now being asked to deliver real cash and results; those who can't are seeing their valuations slashed. This is a noteworthy reminder for those AI concept tokens in crypto that also rely on narratives to support their valuations. Those who understand know that when the narrative tide recedes, the first to be exposed are those with the most stories and the least performance. Who are you trying to scare this time?
Every time $BTC twitches, the experts pull out the classic script "if 63,000 breaks, then 57,000" as if they can't show their expertise without shouting a double-digit drop.
To be clear, this isn’t macro analysis at all; it’s just an open secret telling you: the long leverage is piled up too high, with liquidation prices densely lined up at 57,000. Once triggered, the exchange’s liquidation bots will run faster than anyone else, turning a normal pullback into a waterfall drop—this trick has been played several rounds already, is it really something new?
The first line of defense at 63,200? That’s the average cost line for retail traders over the past two weeks. If it breaks, watch who runs first. If it really falls below, the June low at 57,800 will naturally be dragged out for a beating. The data is all calculated for you, just missing a "stay tuned" note.
What’s even funnier is that open interest is ridiculously high, but trading volume is as thin as air; there aren’t enough buyers to take over. This risk doesn’t need any "market sentiment" analysis; it’s purely because positions are too crowded, so even a random sneeze can trigger a chain of liquidations—this has nothing to do with bearish or bullish views.
Of course, bulls shouldn’t despair. Analysts always leave you a backdoor: if 63,200 holds, the daily chart might form an inverse head and shoulders pattern, targeting 76,000! Either way, they win—whether calling a drop or a rise, they can always spin it back, ending with a universal disclaimer "volume needs to be observed."
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低
Is good news coming? Goldman Sachs says a September rate hike is "very unlikely," not because it is optimistic about inflation, but because the data has fully tilted toward "no more hikes." The market is still pricing in a rate hike, which is already behind reality.
What is the basis? Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius issued a report on August 16 stating that a September rate hike "has become very unlikely," unless there is a dramatic data turnaround in early September—which is not the baseline scenario. Three reasons: July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, the largest drop in a year; July nonfarm payrolls turned negative, with trend employment only adding 5,000 jobs per month, far below the 50,000 needed to keep the unemployment rate stable; inflation remains high but core PCE is expected to return to 2% by 2027. Goldman Sachs estimates that among the 12 FOMC voting members, only 4 to 5 favor a rate hike, and after two months of soft data, this number is unlikely to increase.
CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has dropped from nearly 50% a week ago to about 30%. Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario: 3.50%-3.75% rates maintained until the end of 2026. However, the probability of a rate hike before year-end still exceeds 90%—the market expects no hike in September but a hike by year-end, indicating significant divergence.
Goldman Sachs is not dovish; it is saying "the data no longer supports hikes." For BTC, no rate hike is short-term positive, but "holding steady" is not the same as a rate cut. Without looser liquidity, prices won't rise. The market will eventually catch up with the data's pace; it just needs some time.Challenging 300,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan sounds like a dramatic wealth story, but once you peel back the shell, it's actually a record of a transaction experiment that's almost brutal. Today marks the 63rd day of this experiment. The account started with 300 RMB, and now total assets have reached 4,022.78 RMB, with cumulative withdrawals of 620.14 USDT. In other words, this challenge not only survives but also passes through the early stages most vulnerable to elimination. 💪 Looking back at the sources of earnings, it's quite interesting. Posting on Participating Planet contributed 9 USDT, creator compensation was 520.81 USDT, World Cup event prize money was 43.33 USDT, and the largest portion of the three income was 350.49 USDT from lead trading. This shows that at this stage, trading profits are not the only pillar; content platform incentives and community collaborations jointly support the smooth upward curve of the account. This diversified income structure is, to some extent, a form of antifragile design, at least not completely stalled by short-term setbacks in a single market. 📊 But what truly deserves attention is not the returns themselves, but the ever-evolving trading system behind this challenge. Yesterday was the second day of the combined Martingale and manual trading model, and the entire account was still in the stage of refinement and verification. The most striking discovery during this process was that in the old combination method, manual orders were overridden by Martin's rules, causing the account to bear excessive drawdown pressure in extreme market conditions. But now, the strategy has shifted to MartinTIC U.S. Treasury Reduction Report｜Deep Connections with the Crypto Market
The heavy-hitting TIC report is out, and overseas bondholders are collectively selling off U.S. Treasuries❗
The U.S. Treasury Department released June international capital flow data,
showing overseas holders reduced U.S. Treasuries by $72.1 billion in a single month.
In the past four months, three months saw reductions,
with total overseas holdings dropping to $9.299 trillion,
moving further away from the historic high in February this year.
The top three bondholders all acted simultaneously:
👉 Japan reduced holdings by $26.4 billion, the largest drop, forced to sell bonds and buy dollars to support the yen
👉 China reduced holdings by $25.9 billion, bringing U.S. Treasury holdings to the lowest since 2008, continuing asset diversification
👉 The UK also reduced holdings, indicating many hedge funds are choosing to exit
Six of the eight major overseas bondholders are selling; official central banks are gradually exiting the U.S. Treasury market.
The buyers are private funds and institutions extremely sensitive to yields. To attract capital to absorb massive U.S. Treasuries, interest rates must be raised.
This reality is already reflected in the market, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surging to a nearly 20-year high.
🔗 How does this affect the crypto market?
1. Rising U.S. Treasury yields = higher risk-free returns
U.S. Treasuries are the global asset pricing anchor. A sustained rise in long-term yields means that holding dollar cash and Treasuries offers decent returns.
Capital will withdraw from high-volatility risk assets; Bitcoin, Ethereum, and similar risk assets will continue to face outflow pressure. Historically, during rising U.S. Treasury yield cycles, Bitcoin struggles to sustain major bull runs.
2. Expectations of tightening dollar liquidity are reinforced
Global central banks selling U.S. Treasuries essentially withdraw dollar liquidity from the U.S. domestic market. The market will reprice: Fed rate cuts will be delayed, and the possibility of rate hikes reemerges.
Crypto, as a high-beta asset, fears the "rate cut disappointment" scenario most; once trading expectations reverse, valuation crashes can easily occur.
3. Divergent paths for safe-haven funds
• Scenario A: Frenzied selling of U.S. Treasuries triggers global financial panic, the market enters full risk-off mode, and Bitcoin falls alongside stocks;
• Scenario B: The market starts doubting U.S. Treasury credit, and some safe-haven funds treat BTC as an alternative reserve asset, bringing localized buying.
But judging by the current market, Scenario A is more likely, with short-term priority following macro liquidity trends.
4. Don’t just watch the crypto market; watch U.S. Treasuries for signals
BTC has been range-bound recently, partly due to overseas macro pressure.
If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to hit new highs, Bitcoin will struggle to rally independently;
only a clear decline in Treasury yields will open a valuation recovery window for crypto assets.
This gray rhino of U.S. Treasuries is gradually surfacing risks.
The tug of the high-interest-rate cycle is far from over
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 It's that time again when something happens in the Middle East and the comment section shouts "Buy $BTC quickly to hedge." This morning, Trump said the Strait of Hormuz is open and normal, mines have been cleared, but the naval blockade is still effective—saying both easing and blockade at the same time, a typical case of wanting it both ways. But if you pay attention to the reactions of oil and gold prices, you'll know the market doesn't price this as a systemic risk event at all. When it really comes to war, the first to be sold off is often high-volatility assets like BTC, not rushed to buy. Treating geopolitical conflicts as crypto bullish news is one of the most consistent ways retail traders lose money. I only use news to explain market movements, not to force reasons for my own direction.$SNDK Real-Time Trading Volume Data Analysis (August 18, 22:20)
The US stock SanDisk saw a rapid surge in volume and sharp decline after today's opening. The intraday real-time turnover has already exceeded $10.184 billion, with a trading volume of 6.0587 million shares. The volume ratio is significantly higher than the average of the past ten days, showing clear signs of concentrated capital outflow. On the previous trading day, August 17, the stock's full-day turnover reached $32.044 billion, with a turnover rate as high as 12.51%, marking the highest turnover since the start of this rally. The divergence between bulls and bears at high levels has been thoroughly amplified. Today's volume surge and price drop indicate a large amount of previously profitable positions being liquidated.
In the crypto market, the $SNDK perpetual contracts have simultaneously expanded trading volume, with 24-hour contract turnover exceeding $6.2 billion. The price has quickly fallen in sync with the US stock. The scale of liquidations on both long and short sides in the contract market has risen simultaneously, intensifying the capital competition on the floor. The increase in contract volume does not represent new long-term capital inflow but rather short-term speculative funds repeatedly trading at high levels. The token itself does not confer corporate equity rights, and its sentiment volatility is much greater than that of the US stock.
From the volume-price logic perspective, yesterday's massive surge was the last concentrated rally of funds, while today's volume-driven decline indicates short-term capital is withdrawing from this theme. The mid-to-long-term industrial narrative brought by storage long-term contracts has not disappeared, but the short-term market trend is currently dominated by profit-taking sentiment. To restart an upward rally, sustained volume expansion with bullish candles is needed to regain market consensus.
This article is for market review only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH ETF outflows suppress rebound, but selling pressure is nearly exhausted
ETF—Small inflow after largest outflow in six weeks
Last week (August 10-14), the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $389.7 million, marking the largest weekly outflow in six weeks. On August 17, it turned to a slight inflow of about $26.1 million. Over the past 7 days, ETFs still had a net outflow of approximately $167.9 million, indicating institutional buying has not substantially returned.
Selling pressure is waning, but buying has yet to return
The Fear & Greed Index recovered from 27 last week to 38-41, showing marginal improvement in sentiment but not yet turning greedy. Glassnode data shows long-term holders' supply has reached 16.35 million BTC, increasing by 1.38 million in the past 90 days, and has remained in a low-risk zone for 78 consecutive days. The ETH/BTC trading volume ratio has dropped below 0.8.
Key judgment: Strategy continues to reduce holdings, miners are selling, and ETFs have consecutive net outflows—three selling pressures coexist, but the price remains above 63,000, indicating those who wanted to sell have mostly done so. The inability of bearish factors to push prices down is itself a signal worth noting. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注 If market sentiment is like a lie detector, then the recent performance of altcoins might be lying. Look, lately everyone has been talking about divergence, but I think what really matters is not which candlestick is more attractive, but the emotional thermometer behind it—is it heating up or just warming up? First, let me share a few signals I've seen, the ones without filters. - SOL is bottoming out between 74 and 76, with prices seemingly awake, but on-chain activity has been quietly recharging. This combination of "weak prices and hot ecosystem" is often not a recession but rather an accumulation of strength. Emotionally, everyone has become somewhat numb to disappointment with it, which is actually a point to pay attention to. - HYPE is near 54, still some distance from the high, but its valuation is already not cheap. Its real demand for transactions remains; the question is whether the market is willing to continue paying for the "story." Emotionally, many of its followers now are afraid of missing out, rather than truly understanding its moat. These two mindsets will have completely different future market trends. - OKB has been clearly stronger than the market recently, surging 7% on one day. This wave isn't just a catch-up rally; the market is starting to reprice platform tokens. Emotionally, people began searching for elasticity within "certainty." OKB's total supply remained steady combined with the imagination of the OKX ecosystem, which was exactly where it was. - BNB is a steady model with a mature ecosystem and high certainty, but because it's large, its explosive potential is naturally diluted. It is more suitable as a ballast stone in the cabin rather than the Assault. MineNote a set of cross-asset signals that are easily overlooked in the crypto space but very telling about risk appetite. Today, spot palladium fell below 1300, down 2% intraday; gold plunged nearly $20 at one point during the session but was quickly bought back; at the same time, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remained high, and U.S. tech stocks led the decline. Putting these together: industrially sensitive precious metals (palladium) are being sold off, while safe-haven metals (gold) are supported, indicating the market is worried about demand and liquidity rather than pure inflation. In this environment, $BTC trying to play an independent safe-haven narrative actually lacks cross-asset support—it currently behaves more like a beta risk asset rather than digital gold. Look at positions, not just a single candlestick.The core contradiction in the current market is already clearly laid out on the board: while the storage theme is booming, Bitcoin remains stagnant and continues to trade sideways, with very obvious capital divergence. The core conclusion must be remembered: the market has entered a stage of strong differentiation, and a single trading strategy no longer applies to all instruments. First, directly compare the two daily candlesticks to see the difference: ✅ $SNDK (SanDisk) daily chart: Started near the low near 1123, fluctuated upward, and reached a high of 1827. Currently, RSI6 has reached 89.27, entering a severe overbought zone; the upper Bollinger Band is at 1790.14, with the current price closely following the upper band. The MACD continues to rise, and the upward momentum remains, but the risk of short-term overheating is significant. The sector, relying on AI storage and expectations of HBM shortages, continues to attract institutional capital, maximizing short-term elasticity and rising far ahead of BTC. ✅ $BTC (Bitcoin) Daily: A completely different pattern. It has been oscillating back and forth between 62,357 and 65,398 in the Bollinger Bands range, with volume shrinking, ATR gradually declining, and volatility declining—a typical stagnant sideways pattern. The RSI remains in a neutral range without a clear one-sided direction, the MACD remains below the zero axis, and incremental funds have yet to enter the market. Funds are only willing to speculate on niche themes, with no motivation to drive the market to break previous highs. On one hand, positive news related to AI storage continues to ferment, with SanDisk making a strong rebound and sector funds concentrating and clustering; On the other hand, BTC continued to fluctuate with low volatility, with incremental funds absentProfit plummeted 40% while burning money wildly, can Xiaomi $XIAOMI still surge?
With the latest earnings report out, Xiaomi's data is a bit hard to swallow. Total revenue of 108.9 billion slightly declined, which can be seen as a technical adjustment, but net profit plunged 42.6%, down to only 6.22 billion. It's like the profit for one quarter was directly halved, clearly heading into a death spiral.
Looking closely at this report, Xiaomi is stuck in three quagmires:
1. The smartphone main business is bleeding heavily.
In Q2, smartphone shipments dropped sharply by 26%, and gross margin crashed from 11.5% to 8.5%. To make matters worse, the shortage and price hike of storage chips is a short-term unsolvable problem, directly choking profits.
2. New businesses have become bottomless money pits.
Although 100,000 cars were delivered, the new business overall still lost 2.6 billion, while R&D expenses soared to 9.2 billion. The scale is quite large, but all are unprofitable, money-burning operations.
3. The high valuation narrative has collapsed.
Previously, the market gave a high price, believing in Xiaomi's surge and the big promise of Xiaomi making cars. Now the smartphone main business profit is halved, and the new story relies entirely on burning money. Essentially, Xiaomi is still an assembly business with no new narrative points currently.
When the big promises can't turn into real cash, the market will recalculate. As a seasoned Xiaomi fan, I still maintain a long-term bearish view. Everyone, please don't blindly bottom-fish; better to get out early.
#财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ #Strategy sold $334 million worth of stock last week to increase dollar reserves
The man who once frantically bought is now hoarding cash.
The impact on the crypto space can be summed up in two sentences.
In the short term, the most steadfast bulls in the market have stopped, which definitely puts pressure on sentiment. Over the past few years, everyone was used to Saylor calling out buys weekly and continuously accumulating, but that expectation is gone. However, this is not a signal that the bull market is over; he has never sold at the bottom, just changed his approach.
In the medium to long term, this is actually a good thing. The previous high-leverage cycle, once broken, would cause a chain reaction of collapses. Now, with a strategy of $4.8 billion in cash reserves plus 840,000 BTC, the strategic foundation is actually more stable. The CEO also said they will resume buying coins in the second half of the year; this move is just waiting for a better opportunity.
Here’s my take.
Don’t think Saylor has betrayed anyone. Switching from "mindless buying" to "survive first, then talk" precisely shows that this veteran is clearer-headed than anyone. With a $10 billion unrealized loss on the books and $1.76 billion in annual interest payments, asking him to keep borrowing to buy coins would be a real trap. Now, hoarding cash and stabilizing preferred shares means he can strike back anytime when the opportunity arises. He didn’t run during the March 12 crash either and ended up laughing last.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH Set a macro coordinate for the market over the next two days in advance, so you won't be blindsided by the data later. There are several numbers coming out in the U.S. stock market that could disrupt interest rate expectations: existing home sales contracts, new housing starts, ADP employment changes, plus the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting (8/27–29). The market's current dilemma is clear—inflation has been cooling for several months, but long-term U.S. Treasury yields are pushing higher, with the 30-year yield once hitting a new high not seen since 2019, indicating that pressure comes from supply and term premiums, not just rate hike expectations. For risk assets, high long-term rates are more wearing than short-term ones. Before the data is released, it's more important to keep positions light and leave room for judgment than to chase a single direction. Which data are you watching more closely? SanDisk stock rises over 8%, locking in $93.9 billion long-term orders: The next battle for AI infrastructure, why in storage?
SanDisk's stock price surged more than 8% in a single day. Market funds are not only chasing an impressive investor day guidance but are also repricing a milestone data point—SanDisk has signed long-term procurement agreements of up to 5 years with 8 core major customers, locking in total orders valued at approximately $93.9 billion.
Over the past two years, the entire market's attention has been almost entirely captured by Nvidia's GPU computing power. However, as large model parameters move toward multimodal, ultra-long context windows, and real-time intelligent agent interaction, the entire semiconductor supply chain must face a physical ultimate bottleneck: the faster the computing power runs, the more storage debt accumulates.
The true power of the long-term agreements lies in completely rewriting the valuation model of storage chips.
In traditional semiconductor investment logic, NAND flash and memory have always been seen as highly cyclical commodities with big ups and downs. However, the realization of this $93.9 billion long-term contract marks that the world's top cloud providers and AI giants, to prevent being choked by the "storage wall" in the coming years, are willing to lock in capacity and purchase prices years in advance. This long-order price-locking model not only solidifies SanDisk's high-profit margin baseline for the coming years but also gives the previously volatile storage sector a valuation premium with high certainty similar to infrastructure utilities.
From the perspective of technological evolution, the AI storage boom is far from over.
During the model training phase, high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is indeed the absolute protagonist; but in the much larger-scale inference deployment, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), autonomous driving real-time data streams, and massive context caching, ultra-high-density, low-latency enterprise SSDs and QLC NAND flash are the key bottlenecks determining the entire system's throughput efficiency and operating costs. Storage has risen from a past auxiliary component to a strategic hub deciding AI commercialization computing power utilization.
In this round of AI storage industry landscape, major giants each show their strengths:
SK Hynix and Micron, leveraging their technological lead in HBM and advanced process DRAM, firmly control the excess profits at the peak of AI server computing power; while SanDisk, Kioxia, and Samsung have built deep scale moats in enterprise-level large-capacity NAND flash and high-stack chip mass production.
As AI capital expenditure shifts from "computing power stacking" to "throughput efficiency optimization," the ability to fulfill high-certainty long-term orders will become the sole touchstone to distinguish true leaders from pretenders.
After SanDisk's surge, how high do you think the AI storage market's upside can still go? If you want to continue investing in the AI storage track, among Micron and SK Hynix specializing in HBM and SanDisk focusing on large-capacity storage long orders, who would you prioritize?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#闪迪收涨逾8%，长期协议受关注