Orbit Post Sitemap
Core focus: Strategy buys BTC again | BTC $77,000–$78,000 support | September 4 nonfarm payrolls | September 11 CPI | September 15–16 FOMC | Can ETF funds strengthen again? Yesterday was the last trading day of August. BTC did not continue to break above $80,000, but surged near $79,246 before pulling back, currently holding around $77,800. BTC rose about 23% cumulatively in August, but by September, the market environment had changed: on one hand, after Jackson Hole, Warsh significantly raised market pricing for a rate hike in September, and short-term US Treasury yields surged rapidly; On the other hand, institutional funds have not fully withdrawn due to the macro hawkish turn. On August 31, Strategy repurchased 4,603 BTC worth about $369.7 million. So the most important thing now is not to judge whether September will definitely rise or fall, but to observe whether BTC will find new spot support near $77,000–78,000 after increased macro pressure. If this can be repeatedly held and ETF funds turn positive again, then August's rise will no longer be just a short squeeze; If after the break, volume increases, ETF outflows continue, and open interest (OI) declines simultaneously, it means the market is entering a phase of active deleveraging after the rally. 1. Macro: September shifts from "rate cut trading" to "data trading" Warsh's hawkish remarks are changing the trading framework for September. Market2. Bitcoin: Is $80,000 Heaven or Hell?
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $78,000-$79,000. From a technical perspective, only a clear close above $79,500 can open the path to $84,000-$89,000; if it falls below $76,800, it will retest the low $70,000 range.
But the on-chain data is quite unsettling.
Binance's Bitcoin reserves have climbed to 687,000 BTC, the highest since 2026, while exchange stablecoin reserves are shrinking — this is a distribution phase, not an accumulation phase. The trader unrealized profit ratio has surged to 20.5%, and whales realized $614 million in profits on August 20 alone.
What’s even more painful: of the $6.55 billion short squeeze in August, how much was real spot demand, and how much was just shorts being forced to cover? If it’s the latter, the market could crash right at the September open.
The CryptoSlate model predicts a target price of $81,319 on September 29 — only a $2,000 to $3,000 increase in a month? This is not a surge; it’s a script for high-level consolidation.
$SOL $ETH $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Brothers, how awesome was this August rally? Bitcoin surged 24% in a single week, marking the biggest increase in three years; Ethereum rose 40% in August, outperforming all macro assets. But the question is—can it keep charging in September?
Today, I won’t draw K-lines or shout trading calls; I’ll just reveal all the trump cards for September.
---
1. The biggest contradiction: Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates or not?
The starting point of this August surge was the U.S. Treasury’s announcement to double the long-term bond repurchase scale to $4 billion starting September 9—liquidity expectations directly ignited the market.
But September’s situation is completely different.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole pushed the probability of a September rate hike directly to 57%. CME FedWatch shows a 38.4% chance, while Polymarket’s estimate is even higher, between 52% and 62.6%. Yet Goldman Sachs says the probability of a September hike is extremely low—institutions and prediction markets are completely at odds.
Tom Lee’s view is the most provocative: he treats the panic over a September crash as a contrarian indicator. He says the Fed meeting on September 15 is a decisive turning point; if the Fed neither raises nor cuts rates, the market could see an "extremely strong rebound," with Bitcoin potentially surging to $150,000.
September 15—remember this date. The Fed’s policy meeting and the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act happen on the same day. This day could directly determine the direction for September and even Q4.
$SOL $ETH $BTC #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Guys, I just checked the market, and today's market is quite interesting. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $79,000, and the overnight yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged to 4.76%, hitting a 19-month high. Logically, risk assets should be under pressure, but Bitcoin barely fell, even breaking through the $79,000 mark in the early hours of the morning, up about 0.18%. This shows that amid US Treasury sell-offs and geopolitical conflicts, the market has started to treat Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. However, Ethereum is weaker, dropping about 0.98% to around $2,480, while Bitcoin's market share has risen to 59.75%, clearly concentrating funds into Bitcoin. In the past 24 hours, about $295 million was liquidated across the internet, with long positions accounting for 70%, indicating that the leverage chips used to chase at high prices are being washed out again. How to move tomorrow depends on whether Treasury yields can calm down. If the 10-year yield continues to push above 4.8%, risk assets as a whole will remain under pressure, and Bitcoin may pull back to $77,000-$78,000 to find support; But if the market digests the selling pressure on Treasury bonds, and with the September 15 Senate vote on the CLARITY Act anchored, Bitcoin has a chance to reach $80,000 again. As for trending altcoins today, the market is diverging, with most pulling back. Specifically: $XRP fell 1.59% to around $1.41, but spot ETFs have accumulated net inflows of $1.8 billion, so fundamentals are still solid; $SOL fell 2% to around $100, fighting around $100 in the short term; $DOGE dropped nearly 3%.Giving tax cuts to investments but excluding crypto assets from the door is actually quite thought-provoking.
Ireland is preparing to launch a tax-advantaged savings account for adults, expected to open next year. Stocks, bonds, funds, ETFs, and insurance products can all be included, and within the specified limits, tax benefits can be enjoyed.
But BTC, ETH, and other crypto assets are not included, and derivatives and interest-bearing cash are also excluded.
I think the real discussion is not "why Ireland doesn't allow buying crypto," but a bigger question:
When the government starts actively encouraging ordinary people to invest long-term, what assets will it prioritize?
The answer is actually quite clear.
Assets that can be included in a national savings system must first make regulators feel that the risks are controllable, the rules mature, and consumer protection mechanisms are sound.
Crypto assets have undergone huge changes over the years; ETFs, institutional funds, and custody systems are all developing rapidly, but in the eyes of many countries, they are still distant from being "standard long-term savings assets for ordinary people."
So this policy may not necessarily be just negative news for the crypto industry.
Instead, it puts the issue on the table:
When will crypto assets truly transition from "emerging assets in financial markets" to "standard assets that ordinary people can allocate long-term"?
If this step is truly achieved, its significance may far exceed any single market rally.
Because at that time, what changes will not just be the price, but the entire society's positioning of crypto assets.Crypto assets are experiencing a massive influx of capital, but capital preferences are becoming increasingly refined.
Last week, spot crypto ETFs collectively attracted over $2 billion: BTC net increased by $924 million, ETH gained $824 million, while SOL and XRP brought in $154 million and $110 million respectively.
Notably, after nine consecutive days of gains, BTC saw a sudden net outflow of $202 million on August 28, whereas ETH, SOL, and XRP continued to see net inflows during the same period.
This contrast does not mean that capital is abandoning Bitcoin; rather, institutions are making differentiated allocations based on the prospects of different sectors—ETH benefits from Layer 2 scaling and staking narratives, SOL focuses on high-performance payment scenarios, and XRP leverages progress in cross-border compliance.
BTC’s short-term pullback is more likely due to profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. As the broad rally phase ends, where will the next consensus target for incremental capital be? BTC’s safe-haven attributes, ETH’s ecosystem restructuring, SOL’s mass adoption, or XRP’s regulatory breakthroughs?
The market performance in the coming weeks may provide answers, but one thing is certain: capital has entered a new phase of selective investment.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $ONDO This trend doesn't even require me to think; the account is dancing on its own. During the repeated oscillations in the session, I was focused on one thing: every rebound was weak and soft, it surged once then wilted—this is called a weak rebound. With this kind of structure, no one wants to catch the top, so what else can happen next? It can only look for support downward. No more nonsense, open a short position, entry price 0.3755, just treat the rebound as a free point.
Just finished lunch and checked the market, the price has already dropped to 0.3466, +384.82%, this profit feels good, the wait was worth it.
When the rhythm is right, position management must follow: first close 70%, don't be greedy for the last bit; set a protective stop for the remaining +384.82%, adjust the cost price, and let the rest fly. If it really crashes later, profits keep rolling; if it dares to rebound, we won't feel bad either.
Don't lose patience in the oscillation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
Risk control done upfront is called rationality; cutting losses later is called decisive action.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a new structure to emerge, there are still opportunities, and when the next more comfortable position comes, I will notify you immediately.
$ADA $ETH 🌅 $BTC $ETH OIL IS BECOMING THE MACRO VARIABLE TO WATCH
Bitcoin is starting the session around $78,521, trading inside a relatively tight range between $77,388 and $79,230.
Ethereum is around $2,464, barely moving, while traditional risk assets are also showing some weakness.
But one number stands out:
Brent crude is up 2.7% to around $90.49.
That matters for crypto because a sustained rise in oil prices can put renewed pressure on inflation expectations.
Higher inflation expectations can complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, potentially keeping Treasury yields elevated and reducing the liquidity available for higher-risk assets.
So today's Bitcoin setup is more complicated than simply looking at the green or red candle.
There is still evidence of spot demand.
Spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $7.9M in net inflows on August 31, although several issuers had yet to report at the time of the data.
That's positive, but the size of the inflow is relatively modest compared with the scale of macroeconomic uncertainty currently affecting markets.
This creates an interesting battle.
**Spot buyers are providing support.
Macro pressure is limiting upside.
Leverage could amplify whichever side wins.**
For BTC, the levels are straightforward:
🟢 $77,400 — key support
🔴 $79,230 — immediate resistance
🚀 $80,000 — next upside target if resistance breaks convincingly
If BTC holds $77,400 and gradually pushes through $79,230, the market could start testing whether $80K can finally become support rather than resistance.
But if oil continues climbing and yields move higher, the macro pressure could become harder to ignore.
A break below $77,400 would therefore be more concerning, especially if ETF demand remains weak.
ETH is showing a similar lack of conviction around $2,464.
If Bitcoin strengthens, Ethereum could follow.
If BTC loses support, ETH's higher volatility could make the downside move sharper.
That's why I'm not calling this a breakout or a breakdown yet.
The market is still balancing two competing forces: $ZEC is consolidating in a suspended state after hitting the $870 resistance level, with a subtle tug-of-war forming between the high open interest contracts and the slowing short squeeze momentum.
The price surged from $500 to a high of $870 within two weeks and is currently oscillating repeatedly within a narrow range between $805 and $870.
The spot ETF recorded $14.8 million in trading volume on its first day, the total open interest across the network remains above $1.5 billion, the 24-hour contract liquidation volume has dropped to $5.86 million, and the long-short ratio is nearly balanced.
With spot funds entering and the liquidation ratio between longs and shorts moving toward equilibrium, it indicates that the previous one-sided short squeeze momentum has waned, and the market has entered a phase of chip consolidation.
If the bulls can break through and hold above the $870 resistance with increased volume, the liquidity vacuum above will open up space toward the $900 range, provided that the open interest does not experience a cliff-like drop.
If the market fails to hold the lower boundary of the $805 range, high-leverage long positions will face liquidation pressure, and the entire upward structure may seek support below $800 at a deeper level.
If open interest continues to flow out significantly during the oscillation between $805 and $870, the current stagnant consolidation will be disproven as a high-level distribution by major funds.
In the next 24 hours, the strength of active buying support at $870 is the key variable to determine whether the range will break out or reverse and retest.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估Here's a counterintuitive but repeatedly validated trading framework this year: There's news of war again—this morning, a tanker departing the Strait of Hormuz reported being attacked by three unidentified flying objects. The first reaction is to shout "safe haven, bullish for gold and $BTC," but hold on.
The market's pricing of war this year isn't "safe haven," it's "inflation." The logic is straightforward: trouble in the Middle East → oil prices pushed up → inflation expectations rise → rate hike expectations rise → both risk assets and gold get suppressed by interest rates. To verify, just check if the two-year US Treasury yield is moving up.
So whether war is bullish or bearish for $BTC doesn't depend on "panic," but on whether it ultimately translates into rate cuts or rate hikes. In the current macro environment, the answer leans toward the latter.
Next time you see a geopolitical headline, which indicator will you check first? Here's a real gravity check for those only focused on crypto: Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 2.95% today, the highest in thirty years, approaching the 3% mark. The Bank of Japan meets on September 18, and the deputy governor was still hinting last week that a rate hike this month "remains possible."
The yen has long been the cheapest bucket of water globally—borrowing zero-interest yen to invest in high-yield assets and earn the carry. Now, this bucket of water is about to get more expensive. Once the carry trade unwinds, the impact is never just domestic Japan but hits all risk assets worldwide propped up by cheap leverage, and $BTC is on that list.
Does anyone still remember the August 2024 yen arbitrage unwind that caused crypto to crash overnight? It might not repeat this time, but putting it on your watchlist beats just staring at K-lines.
Are you tracking the Japanese bonds and yen line?A hidden line covered by the K-line, full of trading flavor: Anthropic just signed a $35 billion cloud computing agreement with Lambda, a cloud provider supported by NVIDIA. Interestingly, NVIDIA's role—it's an investor in Lambda, sells chips to Lambda, and also holds leases on the data center side.
A company that is simultaneously selling shovels, a shareholder, and a sublessor, with money circulating within its own ecosystem, turns into a series of "new contract" impressive numbers. This kind of cycle is called prosperity in a bull market, and at the poker table, it's called moving chips from left hand to right hand to grow the pot.
It's not that this business doesn't work, but when most growth comes from the same source self-funding, traders should ask one more question: how much real external demand is there?
$BTC is following AI sentiment this round; whenever any link in the chain loosens, the wind often blows first to crypto. What do you think about this kind of cycle?After a nearly 10% surge in August, a pullback follows as the Fed's hawkish stance continues to take effect; this week's non-farm payrolls will set gold's direction
After a powerful rally, gold has recently experienced a clear high-level retracement. Many are puzzled—after an overall rise of nearly 10% in August, is the big trend over? Today, we will comprehensively clarify the full logic behind this pullback, the key points of the bulls and bears battle, and the core data to closely watch this week.
First, let's review the recent market: on Monday, spot gold fell again by 0.2%, closing firmly at $4448.56, with an intraday low of $4396.43, marking the lowest point since August 19; US gold futures dropped even more sharply, down 1.1% in a single day. Remember, gold's cumulative gain in August was nearly 9.7%, poised to deliver the best monthly performance since January this year, with silver and palladium also strengthening. But overnight, the market sentiment reversed sharply, and high-level longs began concentrated profit-taking.
The turning point came from the hawkish remarks by Fed's Waller at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. He clearly signaled that if inflation does not steadily return toward the 2% target, the Fed still has more work to do. The market quickly interpreted this as a rate hike signal, with the probability of a September hike soaring to 64%-66%. This drove US Treasury yields sharply higher; the 10-year yield briefly surpassed 4.768%, a near two-year high, while the dollar held its two-week peak.
Subsequently, Waller reinforced his tightening stance at the G20 meeting, noting the current investment boom, reduced idle capital, and possibly higher-than-expected US economic potential growth. This sparked market concerns that strong economic resilience and hot investment activity would make inflation stickier, forcing the Fed to keep rates elevated. As a non-yielding asset, gold's holding costs rise with rate hike expectations, naturally leading to capital outflows.
This is also where many recently get confused: with renewed Middle East conflicts, which should be a safe-haven boost for gold, why did gold prices fall?
Now, US-Iran tensions have escalated again, with both sides launching military actions, intensifying the situation. Geopolitical risk has pushed international oil prices up over 2.5%, with Brent crude surpassing $90 per barrel. Rising oil prices directly increase market inflation concerns, leading to expectations that energy price hikes will slow inflation's decline, thereby forcing the Fed to maintain a tighter stance.
In other words, the geopolitical conflict's positive impact on oil prices indirectly becomes a negative for gold. The current market is firmly controlled by rate hike expectations; safe-haven buying power is fully suppressed, so even tense situations struggle to reverse short-term downward pressure.
However, we must objectively view this as just a high-level pullback, not a full bearish reversal. The nearly 10% gain in August is evident, with strong prior bullish momentum. The underlying mid-to-long-term fundamentals—global debt issues, long-term geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank gold purchases—remain intact.
Whether the short-term market can stop falling and stabilize depends on this week's US economic data series. ADP employment, non-farm payrolls, job openings, and subsequent inflation reports are all critical.
If employment data weakens, the market will lower rate hike expectations, giving gold a chance to stop falling and rebound; if employment remains resilient, September rate hike expectations will continue to rise, and gold prices will likely test key support levels further down.
In summary, this round of decline results from the Fed's hawkish stance, rising US Treasury yields, and inflation concerns fueled by higher oil prices—all factors resonating together. The overall bullish structure from August remains, but the short-term upward momentum has been interrupted, and the market has officially entered a high-level volatile adjustment phase.
In the coming days, market fluctuations will significantly increase, with intense battles between bulls and bears. Avoid blindly bottom-fishing or chasing shorts; prioritize waiting for key data releases before making moves. Strictly control position sizes and implement risk protection.
Risk reminder: Personal views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Capital preservation is paramount; risks are borne by the individual.1. Market Overview On the first trading day of September, the global crypto market experienced a technical recovery after an oversold period, with Bitcoin returning to the $78,000 mark, and most mainstream coins closing slightly higher. The first round of sentiment released by the hawkish Jackson Hole push has basically been completed, the US dollar index has edged down from its highs, and market risk appetite has marginally recovered. However, the market is still in a phase of policy expectations being recalibrated, with cautious entry of incremental funds and a market dominated by stock speculation. This week is nonfarm payroll week, marking a critical window of policy gaming: the market currently prices a rate hike in September at about 60%, a significant increase compared to before the Jackson Hole meeting; At 22:00 Beijing time tonight, the August ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released; tomorrow at 20:15, ADP employment data will be released (expected to increase by 47,000); and on Friday at 20:30, the nonfarm payroll report will be released (expected to increase by 55,000). The labor market performance will directly verify inflation resilience and provide core support for the September FOMC policy path, serving as the biggest pricing factor in the current market. Core Market Features: 1. Moderate Recovery Momentum: Mainstream coins generally rebounded but trading volume is weak. Bottom-fishing funds are restraining their entry, mainly focusing on short buying and competition among existing funds, with no signs of a trend reversal. 2. Continued Differentiation of Counterfeit Holdings: TRUMP leads the small-cap market as political sentiment rebounds; DOS has seen profit-taking after previously overselling; BEAT and BICO have slightly rebounded, and overall remains weak. 3. Strong Wait-and-See Before Data: Funds are awaiting guidance from evening PMI and subsequent employment data, with overall market leverage levels remaining low and trading activity lowThe previous article explained why I currently favor HYPE among mainstream coins; this one continues by looking at how funds choose. This morning, a giant whale delegated all 488,600 $HYPE tokens to validator nodes without transferring them to exchanges.
These tokens were received from FalconX five months ago, valued at about $17.18 million at that time. When staked, their value had already exceeded $41 million, with an unrealized profit of nearly $24 million. Despite having ample liquidity to cash out, the entire position was staked in the end.
Staking, of course, doesn't mean never selling; the delegation can still be revoked later. But it extends the exit path and temporarily removes these 488,600 HYPE tokens from direct selling pressure. The previous article discussed HYPE's business outlook; this one adds that large holders, after securing nearly $24 million in unrealized gains, still choose to stake. At least for now, it hasn't turned into spot selling pressure on exchanges.
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 $BTC
Today BTC didn't have big fluctuations, just hovering around 78,000. After the rise in August, ETF inflows slowed down, and there was even a single-day outflow, which is a warning. September is seasonally weaker, plus employment data and interest rate expectations, volatility might be greater than the latter half of August. My personal view: first defend 76,000, reduce positions if it breaks; only consider adding positions if it stands above 81,000. The year-end target is set at 88,000–95,000 for now, with a nearly inevitable mid-term pullback.After a pause of about 10 weeks, Strategy has resumed large-scale purchases of $BTC. The latest 8-K shows that from August 24 to 30, Strategy bought 4,603 BTC, investing approximately $369.7 million, at an average price of $80,318. After the purchase, the company's total holdings reached 845,050 BTC, with a total purchase cost of about $63.7 billion. 1. The most noteworthy aspect this time is the restart of the buying rhythm. The last time Strategy increased BTC was on June 22, when it only bought 520 BTC. In the following weeks, the company’s BTC holdings continuously decreased until this one-time purchase of 4,603 BTC. So this is not an ordinary weekly purchase, but Strategy returning to a clear accumulation state after a period of adjustment. 2. What really hasn’t changed is the capital cycle of "issuing stock to exchange for BTC." This week, Strategy sold about 4.53 million shares of MSTR stock, raising approximately $602.8 million in net funds. The company clearly disclosed that about $369.7 million was used to purchase this batch of BTC; the remaining funds were used to pay preferred stock dividends, repurchase STRC, and increase USD cash reserves. Therefore, this should not be simply understood as "Saylor thinks $80,000 is cheap." More accurately, Strategy has restarted its most familiar model: using capital markets to raise funds and converting part of those funds into Bitcoin. 3. $80,000A Brief Discussion in the Crypto Circle: The So-Called "Golden September and Silver October"—Don't Be Fooled by the Months
"Golden September and Silver October" originally refers to the real estate and consumer sectors, where the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day boost consumption and home sales, making it a traditional peak season. Many people apply this concept to the crypto investment market, expecting September to accumulate strength and October to surge.
But the reality in crypto is completely different. September is known as the "September Curse," while October overseas is called "Uptober" for its upward trend.
September is mostly a quarter-end fund withdrawal period, characterized by volatility and digging pits, with stop-loss hunting being common. It's easy to see the classic trading pattern of opening a position, getting hit, taking over the position, and enduring the pain. For a major upward move in September, strong macroeconomic support like Federal Reserve policies is usually required.
If September undergoes a full correction and digging phase, the probability of a recovery rebound in October increases. But this doesn't mean you can blindly go long just because of the month.
ETF fund flows, whale holdings, funding rates, inflation, and non-farm payroll data—these are the core factors that influence the market.
Only with positive catalysts can it be called "Golden September and Silver October." Without them, "Golden September" directly turns into "Pit September." 8.31 CORE Circulation Anomaly: An Accident and a Stress Test. More Precisely: This Is an Anomaly in Validator Reward Distribution.After BTC pulled back from the August 28 high of about $81,500, it has remained oscillating between $77,000 and $78,500. The first full trading window after Wash's speech has passed; funds have not massively withdrawn, but there has also been no "BTC sideways movement with altcoins fully taking over." The past two weeks have seen ETF inflows and short covering; entering September, the market began to digest both high-level turnover and new chips simultaneously. Public calendars show that the unlocking scale in the first week of September is about $1.5 billion, with the most notable being HYPE, SUI, and ENA. Today, the real question is not who rises fastest, but who still has buy orders during BTC's high-level turnover, and who will lose buy support first if BTC falls another 3%. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Today's altcoin radar continues to use "continuous tracking pools + same-day new anomalies," while clearly distinguishing 🟢offense, 🟡observation, and 🔴risk. 1. Strong validation radar: After BTC's pullback, who still stands firm? $OKB｜🟢Platform coin anchor: current price about $112. BTC fell from 81,000 to 78,000, but OKB never fell back below $100, which is more informative than a single-day gain. $110 is the new pivot, $116–120 is the key zone for re-entering price discovery. Holding above $120 with volume points to $125–130 above; breaking below $108 with volume means a return to $100–105 before discussing structure. OKB and SOL make a good comparison group: OKB holds 1On the chessboard, Nvidia's move of the “Queen's Gambit” has already been made, and everyone has seen the iron hoof of computing power demand—but true players never focus on the pieces already placed. Now, the responses from Dell, Broadcom, and Snowflake are the key to determining the middle game’s direction. Hardware is the fortress, software is the passage, and what you need to calculate is not these three immediate moves, but whether the king’s castle on the board twenty moves later will be breached.
Dell’s earnings report is the deployment of the “rook.” Server orders are your rook—it can move straight ahead, crushing all doubts, but it can also be restrained by a small “profit” pawn. If Dell’s rook is stuck at its own baseline, then the “open line” of the AI hardware supply chain won’t be opened. No matter how exquisite Broadcom’s custom chips are afterward, they will only be lone knights on the board, flashy but unable to deliver a decisive strike. What you need to watch is whether the rook occupies the “seventh rank”—whether cash flow truly returns, rather than the “pawn chain” on the order book that only draws bread to satisfy hunger.
Broadcom is the “bishop”—the diagonal that penetrates the entire AI infrastructure core. Custom network chips, switches, accelerator cards—these are the bishop’s diagonals, threatening both “profit” and “growth” simultaneously. But the bishop’s weakness is that it can only move on squares of the same color. If Broadcom’s earnings show that AI network demand remains confined to the ultra-large-scale customer square and cannot spread to edge computing or enterprise private clouds on different-colored squares, then no matter how beautiful it is, it’s just a “bad bishop” in the endgame, unable to capture key pawns.
Snowflake is the “queen”—the recurring revenue from software subscriptions is the strongest yet most protected piece in the entire game. Cloud data consumption is the queen’s “control power”; it doesn’t deliver direct checkmate but invisibly deprives the opponent of breathing space on all squares. If Snowflake’s “data usage per compute hour” growth slows, it means the queen’s range of action is shrinking—no matter how much hardware sells, if software-side traffic doesn’t generate sustained revenue, the entire AI value network becomes a deadlock of “material advantage but no offensive route.” Countless tragedies like this have been recorded in chess manuals: you win the material but lose the time.
Don’t forget, Nvidia’s move has already validated that the “king’s pawn” of computing demand can charge all the way to the end. But the question now is: is this a lone soldier advancing deep, or a whole pawn chain advancing in coordination? Servers, networks, enterprise software—if these three lines cannot be linked by the same “opening theory,” then the current tech stock valuations are a fragile “castle” that the opponent can dismantle with a single “exchange.”
Sacrificing pawns is to open lines. If you ask me today for a strategic forecast on these three earnings reports, my answer is: don’t look at absolute values, look at “piece coordination.” Hardware revenue can be high, but if the gross margin is like a pawn crushed on the edge; software growth can be rapid, but if cash flow is like a central pawn nailed down—these are hidden risks that will cost double in the middle game. True masters have already calculated the endgames formed after every exchange before the opponent moves. I don’t care how the market moves in the next two days; I care about twenty moves later—when the AI story shifts from the “center of the board” to the “flank advance,” how many pieces will still stand in attacking positions.
The position is already open; it’s Black’s turn to respond. #BroadcomDellAIResults $ $BTC Brothers, the core focus this week is one thing — the Nonfarm Payrolls.
This is the last employment data before the September interest rate decision. It will be released on Friday, and the market is currently betting on expectations.
The market impact can be divided into three scenarios:
Nonfarm exceeds expectations: rate hike expectations intensify, BTC may pull back to 75,000 or even 72,000
Nonfarm meets expectations: volatility, unclear direction
Nonfarm below expectations: rate cut expectations intensify, BTC may rebound above 82,000
BTC is currently hovering around 78,000, the key is to see where it goes after the Nonfarm data is released.
$ETH is more elastic, rising sharply on good news and falling hard on bad news, waiting around 2480 for direction.
$SKHYNIX logic differs from SanDisk and BTC. It not only depends on interest rates but also on how funds move within the AI sector. Poor Nonfarm data doesn't necessarily mean a rise, nor does good data necessarily mean a fall; it depends on market interpretation.
Before the data comes out, don't bet on direction #IntensiveEmploymentDataRelease, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny #BTCHighVolatility, stronger linkage with gold #EarningsObserver: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns under further examination @OKX星球 #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估
Kioxia and SanDisk jointly announced plans to invest over $31 billion (about 5 trillion yen) in Japan by 2032. This covers two factories in Yokkaichi and Kitakami, with a new Fab3 plant in Kitakami targeted to be operational in fiscal year 2029. The joint venture agreement has been extended until the end of 2034. The two companies have cumulatively invested over $50 billion in Japan over the past 25 years.
Is this a supply shock, or is demand following?
UBS predicts NAND prices will rise more than 30% next year. But the market is clearly worried about another issue—Kioxia's stock price has fallen about 50% from its June peak. After the announcement, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics shares also suffered, with Kioxia's stock decline widening to nearly 5%.
Wall Street's stance is also divided: 87.5% of analysts maintain a strong buy rating, while Morningstar lists it as severely overvalued.
The core contradiction of this investment is not the $31 billion itself, but the production timeline—Fab3 will only be operational in 2029. NAND is currently in shortage, but no one can guarantee that demand in 2029 will support the supply after expansion. The NAND cycle memory has not been completely forgotten, and the $31 billion investment is awakening it.#俄罗斯9月1日启动数字卢布大规模推广 The Russian Central Bank confirmed that starting September 1, 2026, large-scale promotion of the digital ruble will begin. The first major banks and large merchants with annual revenues exceeding 120 million rubles must support digital ruble payments; Personal use remains voluntary. On $BTC: ⭐⭐⭐ ☆☆ The core is not "Russians will buy BTC with digital rubles," but rather: digital ruble CBDC → mature global digital currency infrastructure → market acceptance of blockchain/digital assets → BTC gains long-term narrative support. Moreover, there is another easily overlooked factor in Russia on September 1: Russia's new crypto asset regulatory framework also came into effect, meaning the digital ruble and crypto assets are being placed under clearer financial regulatory frameworks. But I want to remind you: the digital ruble ≠ BTC favorable policies. The digital ruble is a CBDC issued by the Russian central bank, but rather part of the national financial system; Russia did not allow BTC to become a daily payment currency just because the digital ruble launched. So BTC is more like a macro positive sign of "rising global digital currency adoption," rather than direct capital inflows. ⸻ About ONDO: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ☆ I find this more interesting. ONDO essentially bets on: Traditional financial assets → Tokenization→ Ondo is already working on tokenizing US Treasuries, stocks, and E-AssetsTop contract gainers list, ZORA surged 40% in a single day, but its liquidation map has quietly thinned out. Have you ever wondered how many shorts were squeezed when a coin rose 40% in 24 hours? 🫧 Looking at the full contract volatility table tonight, my first reaction wasn’t "which coin is the strongest," but "which coin’s leverage structure is the most fragile." ZORA rose 40.26%, with a trading volume of $244 million. On the surface, it looks like the public chain sector is being aggressively attacked by capital, but a closer look at position changes shows this is more like a concentrated short squeeze by short-term bulls rather than a new narrative taking hold. Short-term traders rushed in to push the price, and once the funding rate turns positive to an extreme, every subsequent pullback could trigger a chain of liquidations. Looking at the top decliners, ZKP dropped 16% with a volume of $20.25 million. It seems like profit-taking, but what’s really notable is that its decline had almost no decent support. This volume-price structure indicates the market isn’t lacking money, but that money is only willing to stay in one place during the same time period. 0G rose 24.97%, and the AI sector seems to be warming up, but its volume was only $64.58 million, nearly four times less than ZORA. This suggests the AI rebound is more like an oversold recovery within the sector rather than a large influx of new funds. Today’s market is essentially trading one theme: cross-market linkage. - Capital is withdrawing from Meme and old hotspots, flowing into new coins and public chains, but the withdrawal speed far exceeds the inflow speed. - PUMP dropped 11.34% Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 and then fell back. To me, this is not a market trend but a wind tunnel test report for a super high-rise building — the wind direction has changed, but has the core tube shifted? The US spot ETF has had net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, like pouring high-strength concrete continuously on nine floors, not daring to stop for a single day. But the net outflow on August 28 was like the construction crew suddenly running out of materials once, making the entire site listen closely to the steel bars' breathing.
The correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin is the most enduring data to watch. The Nasdaq is like a glass curtain wall, reflecting liquidity illusions; gold is the underground rock layer, bearing humanity's thousands of years of fear and trust in immutability. Now Bitcoin's price curve is starting to follow gold rather than shaking with tech stocks, which means it is no longer an extension platform hanging on internet companies but is conducting its own pile foundation static load test. This building is finally recognizing its own foundation.
CryptoQuant's on-chain retail activity is near a two-year high. This is the number of workers on the scaffolding. Retail investors are carrying bricks into the construction site one by one; their sentiment is like the rotating light atop the tower crane — eye-catching but unable to illuminate the structural engineer's calculation drawings. High on-chain activity only means the site is lively, not that the building quality is qualified. What truly determines whether this building can withstand an 8-magnitude earthquake are the load-bearing walls, shear walls, and piles buried 30 meters underground.
The rise in gold prices along with BTC indicates the market is rearranging the gravity load for this newly built "safe-haven annex." Previously, Bitcoin hung on the curtain wall frame of the Nasdaq; when the wind blew and the curtain wall rattled, BTC shook accordingly. Now it is trying to weld into gold's underground structural layer, which requires new settlement observations. Every steel bar's grip force and every ton of cement's hydration heat need time to verify. Retail resurgence has been seen many times in history — the guardrails are just removed, crowds rush in to take photos, but the next day the workers leave, the tower crane is unloaded, and the facade is revealed.
ETF capital flow cooling is like concrete entering the curing period — quiet on the surface but intense hydration reactions inside. Whether it can withstand winter construction depends on the pouring temperature and curing cycle, not the number of onlookers outside. Whether the locking nails between Bitcoin and gold really bear force will depend on two data points later: after ETF net inflows stop, whether spot trading volume remains; and during violent reverse fluctuations in US stocks, whether BTC's horizontal swing amplitude is restrained by gold's rigidity.
Whether there is enough structural gap left between this building's shear walls and gold anchor piles, I have not confirmed on the blueprints yet. But one thing is clear — the steel bars have already shown rust, and the depth of the rock layer cannot be measured by the tower crane's top sightline. #BTCGoldCorrelation The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has reached 67.9%!
But at this moment, I actually want to remind you:
The higher the rate cut expectations, the more you shouldn't simply interpret it as positive news.
What the market is trading now is not just whether there will be a rate cut in September, but whether the upcoming employment and inflation data can continue to support this expectation.
If the data continues to weaken, the rate cut expectation may further strengthen;
But if economic data shows resilience again, market pricing may quickly adjust.
So at this stage, I will still remain a bit cautious.
Expectations can be traded in advance, but they are also the easiest to be proven wrong by reality.
Especially after market sentiment has clearly heated up, the more everyone talks about a rate cut, the more you need to see if the real data has caught up.
The hotter the market, the more you can't just look at the positives. $BTC Cryptocurrency Market Weekly Report | Week 35 (2026.08.24 - 2026.08.31) # 1. Market Overview This Week The crypto market overall showed **high-level fluctuations and cooling sentiment** this week. Last week, Bitcoin recorded its largest single-week gain in US dollars, but this week shifted from rally to absorption: it first reached $81,455, then was interrupted by Jackson Hole's hawkish remarks, stabilizing around $78,000 over the weekend. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fluctuated between about $2.64 trillion and $2.73 trillion, with a roughly 0.9% decline for the week; Bitcoin's dominance remained between 59.5%–59.8%, with funds still clearly concentrated in the industry leaders, and altcoins overall weaker than BTC/ETH. The Fear and Greed Index fell from last week's high of 73–74 to 62, still in the "greedy" range, but the heat has clearly cooled. In short: Institutional funds are still buying, but macro interest rate expectations have suddenly hardened—the biggest risk this week isn't the plunge itself, but the pricing correction that "after rising too fast, it's the first serious confrontation with the Fed." # 2. BTC & ETH Performance Bitcoin (BTC) - Opened at about $77,750 at the start of the week, reached a high of about $81,455 (August 28, the highest since May 15), hit a low of about $76,900, and closed the weekend at around $78,200–$78,600. - If the opening and closing are weekly, the price is roughly flat to slightly higher; If we consider the caliber of some mechanisms (relative to the height within the week,BTC remains around $78,800. How much longer will it shake before it takes off or lands?
For those who missed the boat, should they keep waiting or can’t resist getting on board to catch the dip?
Short-term hot money is mainly in the token issuance/Meme ecosystem on Robinhood Chain and altcoins like SKR. For example, Binance’s holdings of the latter grew about 59% in one day, but the funding rate is clearly negative, mixing short squeezes and chasing funds.
Strategy continues buying coins, increasing BTC holdings by 4,603 from August 24 to 30, spending about $369.7 million, with an average cost of $80,318; total holdings rose to 845,050 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,412.
Notably, this batch was bought at prices higher than the current BTC price, indicating institutional buying does exist, but it hasn’t directly turned $80,000 into a solid support. What is this troublemaker company up to? Selling low and buying high, malicious shorting?📊 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Direction switched three times, shorts crushed with 3x leverage in 12 hours, barely reversed by longs with 1.03x in 24 hours, cumulative liquidations exceeded $5.86 million, concentration only 46.4%, short squeeze momentum completely exhausted, longs and shorts back to balance...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $5,263.07 $5,263.07 $0
4 hours $166,200 $88,800 $77,400
12 hours $2,722,100 $680,900 $2,041,100
24 hours $5,863,400 $2,979,700 $2,883,700
1-hour dominated by longs (shorts zero), volume $53,000, extreme control but small scale; 4-hour longs slightly lead by 1.15x, volume surged to $88,800, longs and shorts nearly balanced; 12-hour shorts violently reversed with 3x leverage, volume surged to $2,041,100, shorts fully took over; 24-hour longs barely reversed with 1.03x advantage, liquidations $2,979,700 vs shorts $2,883,700, cumulative $5,863,400. 12-hour liquidations only 46.4% of 24-hour total, moderate concentration. Longs leverage changed from 1.15x → shorts 3x → longs 1.03x, forming a V-shaped reversal but very weak, after three direction switches longs and shorts almost completely balanced, short squeeze momentum fully depleted. Leverage recommended to compress within 3x, direction unclear, favor longs with less action.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 1
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: employment data is about to test Wash's hawkish stance, Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "currency depreciation trade," and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI returns sustainability.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls Debut This Week: Wash's "More Work to Do" Faces First Big Test
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. Market expects 58,000 new jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Tuesday JOLTS job openings, Wednesday ADP private employment (+47,000 expected), Thursday ISM manufacturing index will be released sequentially, four pieces of the puzzle revealed over four trading days.
Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, mentioning "inflation" 25 times, clearly stating if inflation does not fall fast enough, "there is still work to do." Market quickly pushed September rate hike probability to 60%. However, July's weak nonfarm data of -23,000 jobs still looms—if this week's employment data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test.
₿ BTC High Volatility: Gold Linkage Strengthens, $7 Billion Flows into ETFs
Bitcoin touched $81,237 on August 25, then retreated to a high range of $78,000-$79,000; international gold price approached $4,700/oz simultaneously. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with Nasdaq 100 dropped from over 60% to about 33%, while correlation with gold rose above 50%—Bitcoin is completing its role shift from "tech asset" to "digital gold."
This shift is driven by the return of the "currency depreciation trade." In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow, with SPDR Gold ETF daily turnover reaching $6.8 billion, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $5.2 billion. Investors no longer choose between gold and Bitcoin but buy both "non-government credit assets" simultaneously.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell Take Over: AI Returns Under Further Scrutiny
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of earnings tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects revenue of $29.24 billion, up 83.3% year-over-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $15.23 billion, with custom AI chip business continuing to explode driven by Google TPU and Meta's self-developed computing power procurement.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company holds $43 billion in AI-optimized server backlog orders; last quarter AI server revenue surged 757% year-over-year to $16.1 billion. But margin pressure is notable—the Infrastructure Solutions Group gross margin dropped from 14.8% to 10.5%. Coupled with Nvidia's prior announcement of AI server price hikes over 15%, whether Dell can maintain its profit margin baseline is the market's key focus.
💎 Summary
Three events sketch the same picture: this week's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's hawkish "more work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under the "currency depreciation trade," with a record $7 billion ETF inflow; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware returns sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. After three switches, $ZEC contract longs and shorts are almost completely balanced, cumulative liquidations $5.86 million, concentration only 46.4%, short squeeze momentum fully exhausted. As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge this week—the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 This Week's Major US Stock Market Events from Fangwai
Woke up this morning, Bitcoin shorts continue to profit
The week started with a hit from the Middle East.
This morning, the US struck Iran again, targeting Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz.
Shortly after, Iran announced retaliation against US military bases in Jordan.
Oil prices immediately rose, with Brent crude approaching $90 again.
So on Monday, the market faces a very familiar problem: oil prices are rising again.
In recent months, every escalation in US-Iran tensions has caused more than just the war itself to trouble tech stocks.
The transmission path has always been clear:
Middle East escalation
→ Crude oil rises
→ Inflation expectations rise
→ US Treasury yields climb
→ Tech stock valuations come under pressure
Especially after Fed Chair Powell emphasized inflation risks again last week at Jackson Hole, market expectations for further rate hikes in September have clearly increased.
So if oil prices continue to surge today, it’s no surprise that the Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks open under pressure and fall.
But there is also an opposite logic here.
Over the past six months, the market has gradually adapted to US-Iran conflicts.
As long as there is no new large-scale supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices don’t spiral out of control again, the impact of single military actions on US stocks usually becomes shorter.
So today is more of an emotional shock.
What really determines the direction this week is the upcoming employment data.
Tuesday looks at JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing
Last month, US nonfarm payrolls showed negative growth, and the previous two months were significantly revised down.
So now the market wants to know if US companies still want to hire.
If JOLTS job openings continue to decline, it indicates the labor market is indeed cooling.
But just looking at employment is not enough.
In ISM, I will focus on Prices Paid.
Weak employment and falling prices is the best combo for tech stocks.
The economy cools down, and the Fed doesn’t have to worry about inflation.
If employment is weak but prices keep rising, the situation changes completely.
That would increasingly resemble the market’s most hated stagflation.
Tuesday after market close also features $DELL
I bought Dell phones back in college and lost a lot on a business laptop costing over ten thousand.
This earnings report has limited impact on the overall market but is worth watching for the AI hardware supply chain.
Dell is increasingly becoming a piece of the AI server demand puzzle.
If AI server orders and backlog continue to grow, it at least shows that capital expenditures from giants like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are still flowing into servers, GPUs, HBM, DRAM, and enterprise SSDs.
Wednesday
Daytime looks at ADP, evening at $AVGO
Although ADP often doesn’t match nonfarm payrolls, if both JOLTS and ADP show weakness two days in a row, the market will preemptively price in cooling employment for Friday.
Broadcom, I think, is the most important company earnings report this week.
Nvidia already proved last week that GPU demand remains strong.
Broadcom will verify whether hyperscalers’ own AI chips, ASICs, switch chips, and AI networking demand are strong.
If Broadcom continues to significantly raise AI revenue forecasts, it means this round of AI capital expenditure has a very important feature:
Strong GPUs and strong in-house chips.
This is good news for the entire AI infrastructure chain.
Optical communications, networking, servers, HBM, and high-end DRAM will all benefit.
If Nvidia just delivered a strong earnings report but Broadcom suddenly talks about demand slowing, be cautious.
Because that would mean internal divergence in AI demand might be starting.
Thursday continues with ISM Services and initial jobless claims
The US economy is service-sector dominated, so the service PMI is very important.
Still focusing on two things: employment and prices.
Cooling service employment and prices is a soft landing.
Strong service employment and hot prices mean the Fed stays hawkish.
If service employment suddenly collapses, the market will start considering recession.
Friday, the boss arrives
August Nonfarm Payrolls
This time, nonfarm payrolls are much more important than usual.
Because July already showed a -23,000 job loss, the market now needs to confirm whether this was just an anomaly or if US employment has really reached a turning point.
If August job growth is moderately positive and wages don’t accelerate again, I think that’s a relatively good outcome this week.
Employment is cooling.
The economy hasn’t collapsed.
The Fed’s need to continue raising rates decreases.
In this case, Nasdaq, AI, and semiconductors are likely to see valuation recovery.
If nonfarm suddenly turns strong again and wages remain hot, it means July might have been noise.
Combined with oil prices near $90, the market will reprice inflation pressure and expectations for continued Fed hikes.
This combination is most unfriendly to long-term bond yields and high-valuation tech stocks.
The worst case is nonfarm negative growth again while oil prices keep rising.
Then the market faces not just interest rate issues.
The economy weakens but energy prices remain high.
This combination will push the "soft landing" discussion toward "stagflation."
This week
Monday is cautious.
Middle East escalation and rising oil prices will first suppress risk appetite, especially for Nasdaq and semiconductors.
But it won’t cause a big drop just because of this military action.
As long as there is no more severe supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices don’t quickly break into a higher range, the market should return to data-driven trading on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The decisive time is likely Wednesday to Friday.
If employment data gradually cools and Broadcom continues to confirm AI demand, this adjustment might turn into an opportunity.
Macro loosens valuations, AI continues to provide earnings.
This is the best combination.
If oil prices keep rising, ISM prices remain hot, and nonfarm is strong again, the rebound space for tech stocks will be clearly limited.
Because valuations are generally high now.
No matter how strong AI is, it’s hard to fight the continuously rising risk-free rate long term.
So no conclusion on the market can be drawn on Monday.
The US striking Iran today only sets the opening.
JOLTS, ADP, Broadcom, and ISM decide the process.
Friday’s nonfarm truly decides how US stocks will move in September.
This week the market is actually waiting for two answers
Is the US economy moderately cooling or is it losing momentum? $BTC $ETH $TRUMP just pushed the Fear and Greed Index from “Greed” up to 71, BTC touched back to 79.4K, ETH climbed to 2500, and the group chat’s “September main rally” was almost overhyped—then Wash Jackson Hole spoke, and the September rate hike probability jumped from 35% to 60%, the 2-year US Treasury yield surged 10 basis points, BTC was smashed back to 76.8K that night, with $480 million liquidated across the network, bulls accounting for $360 million.
This cold shower isn’t rain, it’s ice-cold. The ETF side is even more divided: BTC ETF had a net outflow of $202 million on 8/28, breaking a 9-day inflow streak; ETH ETF still had a net inflow of $102 million the same day, continuing a 10-day inflow streak. Institutions aren’t exiting, they’re reallocating BTC as temporary base holdings, rolling surplus into ETH and large-cap altcoins, cutting high-beta leveraged longs first amid the macro shift to hawkishness.
Oil prices surged to Brent 90.5 due to the Hormuz conflict, inflation pressure remains, and Wash scrapped forward guidance—every PCE and nonfarm report will be a blind box bomb from now on. Sideways shallow washouts can be played, but don’t mistake FOMO for a trend in front of the 80K wall. Sentiment is the matchstick, macro is the bucket; this week, watch if 76.8K can hold. #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #Meta巨额和解后股价走高，风险定价重估 Everyone in the family, all the waiting, probing, and dark pool bets in the crypto circle this week are essentially waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls.
This is the last core employment data before the September Federal Reserve rate decision that can directly rewrite policy pricing. From Wall Street's macro hedge funds to large spot ETF funds in the crypto market, and retail traders in the futures market, everyone has timed their positions before the data release. Now $BTC has been grinding in a narrow range near 78000 for almost three days. It's not that the market can't move; both bulls and bears are waiting for a clear signal to break the balance.
There are no ambiguous or vague forecasts. Three non-farm results correspond directly to three clear market paths:
Non-farm exceeds expectations and strengthens: The market immediately raises the probability of a September rate hike to over 60%. High interest rate expectations directly kill short-term upside potential. BTC's first support at 75000 will be quickly broken, and during the drop to 72000, a concentrated high-leverage long liquidation will be triggered;
Non-farm falls completely within the expected range: The Fed's policy stance will not loosen at all. The market will enter a trendless tug-of-war with spikes up and down becoming the norm for the next two to three days. There will be almost no short-term trend with certainty to hold, and both bulls and bears will find it hard to make comfortable profits;
Non-farm is significantly below expectations: Rate cut expectations will directly ignite risk asset sentiment. BTC will break out upward from the current consolidation range, quickly reaching the first target of 82000. Funds that missed out will rush in to buy, leaving a very short window for hesitant buyers to dip in.
$ETH is now stuck at the 2480 level, with full elasticity: positive news will push it directly to 2700, negative news will hammer it down to 2200. Its market rhythm is completely in the hands of this non-farm data.
Before the non-farm results are released, all short-term fluctuations do not constitute trend signals.
The essence of heavily betting on one side is treating uncertainty and luck as a certain trading logic.
True trading profits never come from premature bets but from following the clear direction after the cards are revealed.
The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks are positions and patience to wait for the right chance.
#BTC high-level consolidation, increased correlation with gold
#Employment data densely released, Wash's policy stance tested August was strong. But $BTC still couldn’t secure a clean break above $80K. Key levels: 🟢 $77K support 🔴 $79.4K–$80.8K resistance Now the real catalyst: Friday’s U.S. jobs report. Weak data → lower rate-hike expectations → yields could ease → BTC gets another shot at $80K. Strong data → tighter policy priced in → yields/dollar rise → resistance gets harder. And despite ~$924M in BTC ETF inflows Aug. 24–28, sellers absorbed demand near $80K. Meanwhile, ETH ETFs pulled ~$824M. September isn’t ab🚨 $ETH near 2450, the real battlefield may just be beginning!
Currently, ETH is tugging back and forth around $2450. The biggest feature of the market is not the price fluctuations, but the obvious divergence in capital.
On one side, there are high-leverage long positions.
Huang Licheng's 25x ETH longs are close to $100 million. Although they have returned to profit, the margin is very thin. If the price pulls back even a little, this portion of positions may come under pressure again.
On the other side, suspected institutional addresses are transferring large amounts of ETH to exchanges, with a cost basis around $1700, floating profits already exceeding 40%. If transfers continue, the market will naturally worry about profit-taking.
But interestingly, another group of funds is continuously accumulating.
Bitmine increased its holdings by over 50,000 ETH last week, with total holdings now close to 5.9 million ETH.
So what’s really worth watching now is not whose position is bigger, but:
Can the selling pressure near 2450 be continuously absorbed by spot buying?
If sellers keep dumping but the price doesn’t fall, it means chips are being absorbed, and after turnover is complete, the price may rebound.
But if spot support weakens and high-leverage longs start to reduce positions en masse, ETH’s correction speed may accelerate significantly.
Holding 2450 could mean turnover; losing 2450 means risk needs to be reassessed.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力 On August 31, according to Fox News, U.S. President Trump stated that the United States will respond to Iran's attacks against U.S. forces.
Taken alone, this sentence doesn't carry particularly large information, but placed in the current Middle East situation, the impact is different.
Because what the market is most sensitive to now is not who said what, but whether the conflict will further escalate.
If the situation continues to escalate, the first to be affected is often not the crypto market itself, but energy prices, risk aversion sentiment, and the capital flow of global risk assets.
Especially oil prices.
Once the Middle East situation affects energy supply, rising oil prices may further push up inflation expectations, and changes in inflation expectations will affect the market's judgment on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.
This chain ultimately may still transmit to BTC and U.S. stocks.
So recently when looking at BTC, I actually feel we can't just focus on the candlestick charts.
BTC just went through a clear rebound earlier, and now it faces simultaneous changes in geopolitical situation, oil prices, and global interest rate expectations, significantly increasing market uncertainty.
Whether Trump's statement will evolve into a bigger action is still unknown.
But what is certain is:
As long as the Middle East situation does not truly cool down, risk assets will find it hard to completely shake off this underlying factor.
Where BTC goes next may depend not only on capital and technical factors but also on how this conflict unfolds next.The core conclusion of today's market is: **Risk appetite is weak, but it still temporarily belongs to "rising macro pressure," not full-blown panic yet.** Overnight, the US-Iran military conflict escalated again, Brent crude oil rose back above $90, US Treasury yields rose in tandem, and all three major US stock indices closed lower. Meanwhile, the hawkish signals released by Warsh at Jackson Hole continue to ferment, and the market's pricing for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 65%. BTC is still fluctuating below $80,000, so the most important variables today are: whether oil prices can continue to rise, and whether tonight's US ISM manufacturing will further reinforce the "strong economy + high inflation + Fed rate hikes" trade. 1. What happened overnight? 1. US and Iran directly clashed again, oil prices rose back above $90 Facts: The US previously struck rocket launch facilities on Iran's Larak Island, and Iran subsequently fired missiles at the US military base in Jordan. US President Trump then stated that the US would respond strongly. This is the first direct military clash between the US and Iran in nearly a month. Market reaction: Brent crude oil rose 2.71% on Monday, closing at $90.49 per barrel; WTI rose 2.83%, closing at $85.76 per barrel. Brent intraday peaked at $91.52. Meanwhile, actual navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains very low, with an average of only about 5 bulk commodity transport ships tracked daily over the weekend, whereas before the conflict this strait accounted for about one-fifth of global oil supply On the one hand, emotion and speed often trump reason, with some rushing to open short positions when the price reaches 79,000, while Ethereum is falling short of its target, and other coins continue to rise and hit records, but hesitation and caution remain the master at the end of this wave. On the other hand, economic accountability statements and interest rate hike hints increased the likelihood of a decision in September from 39.9% to 57% in just one week, which was immediately reflected in a setback and strength of the dollar index, natural pressure, and a fall on riskier assets. While the GA insists$BTC as a risk asset pricing anchor, multi-chain interoperability + value flow narrative, examining the underlying logic of sector rotation
In the mid-to-late bull market consolidation phase, many fall into the misconception: buy when BTC rises, short when BTC falls. But in rotation markets, sector independence comes from value flow efficiency, not driven by the overall market.
BTC defines the risk premium of the entire crypto market, ETH reflects the inflow and outflow of funds within the Ethereum ecosystem. Key future observations: whether multi-chain asset free flow protocols can absorb the existing chips fleeing across ecosystems, forming sector trends independent of the single Ethereum ecosystem.
Tracking list:
🟠BTC｜Risk premium anchor
🔵ETH｜Ethereum ecosystem fund pool
🟣OSMO｜Multi-chain value exchange hub
🟢AXL｜Cross-chain asset transmission layer
🔷JUP｜Solana liquidity aggregation
⚡INJ｜Multi-chain derivatives middleware
🏦ATOM｜Cross-chain sovereign ecosystem
💧SEI｜Transaction-oriented public chain
🤢SUI｜High-speed asset flow
🔥FLOKI｜Cross-community propagation token
Focus on BTC and ETH relative strength:
BTC does not experience systemic crashes, ETH/BTC continues to weaken, but the cross-chain sector collectively resists declines, indicating funds are migrating outward, and an independent cross-chain market is brewing...
#BTC high-level consolidation, enhanced linkage with gold
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK
#银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 Look at this $BTC historical cycle chart; the bear market progress bar has already reached 84%.
Many people wonder: the bear market is almost over, so why hasn't the true bottom been hit yet?
Reviewing history, in every past bear market around August to September, the situation was almost exactly the same.
When you are in the moment, you can't perceive that there will be another drop; only by looking back and reviewing can you see that this is just a consolidation.
Right now, the market atmosphere is extremely oppressive, and the entire network is pushing you to accept: the bull market has already started, so hurry and get on board.
Of course, I can also find a bunch of bullish arguments to support the bull market narrative.
But if this is the turning point now, it means three things are true simultaneously:
1. Bitcoin's inherent four-year cycle rule is directly invalidated
2. The bottom is realized early, and everyone collectively succeeded in bottom-fishing
3. The historical bear market bottom's time and data model is completely obsolete
I don't rule out the possibility that "this time is different," but I won't bet my position on such a low-probability scenario.
Historical average estimates place the bottom of this cycle in late October.
Don't be fooled by the current rebound; the closer to the end of the cycle, the more dangerous the bull traps become.
🔴 Key price levels
Bullish target: 83000
Bearish target: 71000
Once 71000 is effectively broken, the space for a deep correction fully opens.
$BTC $ETH #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
⚠️ Cycle projections are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice$BTC SEPTEMBER MAY BE ABOUT THE DATA, NOT THE CANDLESTICKS
Bitcoin enters September with a strong August behind it, but the market still hasn't resolved the battle around $80K.
That makes the next phase more interesting.
BTC has already shown that buyers are willing to step in around the $77K region.
At the same time, every attempt to push through the upper range has met resistance.
So instead of asking whether Bitcoin is bullish or bearish, I'm watching what can finally force the range to break.
Right now, the biggest candidate is macro.
Friday's U.S. jobs report could significantly influence expectations around the Federal Reserve's next decision.
If employment weakens meaningfully, traders could start reducing expectations for tighter policy.
That could improve liquidity conditions and give risk assets more room to recover.
Bitcoin would then have a chance to challenge the $80K–$81K zone again.
But if the labor market remains stronger than expected, the opposite reaction could develop.
Higher yields.
Stronger dollar.
Tighter financial conditions.
More pressure on BTC and the rest of crypto.
That's why September could become less about technical patterns and more about how quickly expectations change.
The ETF picture also deserves attention.
Spot BTC ETFs attracted roughly $924M between August 24 and 28, while spot ETH ETFs saw around $824M during the same period.
That's meaningful demand.
But BTC still struggled to hold above $80K.
This creates an important question:
Is the market absorbing institutional buying, or is resistance simply too strong right now?
The answer should become clearer if price breaks out of the current range.
For BTC, I'm watching:
$77K — buyers need to defend it.
$79.4K–$80.8K — sellers need to be absorbed.
$81K+ — a sustained breakout would change the short-term picture.
For ETH, I'm watching whether it can maintain relative strength while BTC consolidates.
For SOL and XRP, the key is whether broader liquidity eventually reaches higher beta assets. Another emergency situation has occurred in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran claims that a large oil tanker caught fire after hitting a mine near the Strait of Hormuz, but the US has denied this claim.
The accounts from both sides have not fully aligned yet, but the news itself is already sensitive enough.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy transportation routes. If the safety of vessels here is compromised, the impact will quickly spread to oil prices, shipping, and insurance markets.
What’s more notable is that many ships have recently chosen to avoid this route.
If it’s just a one-time incident, the market can digest it without much difficulty.
The concern is if similar incidents happen repeatedly.
Once shipowners, insurers, and energy companies generally start treating the Strait of Hormuz as a high-risk area, energy transportation costs may continue to rise.
So, I will be focusing on two signals going forward:
Whether more ships suspend passage, and whether insurance and shipping costs continue to increase.
These two changes are more worth watching than the news of an “oil tanker fire” itself.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 More people are paying attention to UNI, so let me analyze it!
The founder of this coin cashed out long ago, and the early foundation kept selling tokens nonstop.
Initially, there were 1 billion tokens, about 110 million have been burned. You should know that in the earliest votes, the protocol fee switch A16 was opposed because it held the most chips.
However, recently with support from Robinhood Chain and xlayer, it seems to have revitalized RWA growth, so it hasn't fallen behind.
But compared to HYPE, it seems to lag a lot. What UNI can do, exchanges nowadays do better. So why not just settle for platform tokens?
For example, BNB and OKB have more reliable platform backgrounds and offer more holding benefits than UNI.
Looking at UNI's candlestick chart, from the lowest point of 3.3U in June 2022 to now, four years have passed, and the price still hovers below $5. Can you stand that?
Of course, the price surges are real with volume, but unfortunately, few have faith; basically, once a pump happens, people leave, so the price never really rises.
Additionally, UNI was originally designed to have up to 2% annual inflation after 4 years, which hasn't been activated yet; I also remember there was a sushi coin targeting it, claiming a fixed total supply but later increased issuance, which basically ruined it.
My view is that UNI is only good for short-term trading—buy the rise and sell. The overall market environment is like this now; unlike early altcoins where just holding could yield several to tenfold gains in a bull market, that effect is no longer achievable. This is a tough market shift, and denial won't help!9.1 Morning Brief｜📝
This Friday is the non-farm payrolls report; JPMorgan warns of a "good news is bad news" scenario, with geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices higher.
US Stocks: The three major indices closed lower with mixed sector performance. Utilities plunged, crypto-related stocks bucked the trend and strengthened $COIN $MSTR $Circle, Tesla and SanDisk surged, while Amazon fell after being sued by the FTC.
Crypto: $437 million liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions damaged, BTC consolidates awaiting new catalysts.
⚠️For information sharing only, not investment advice.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC ENTERS SEPTEMBER AT A CROSSROADS
Bitcoin just finished a strong August, but the transition into September could be very different.
The rally pushed BTC sharply higher, yet the market couldn't establish a clean breakout above $80K.
Now price is sitting in a familiar battle zone:
$77K = key support
$79.4K–$80.8K = major resistance
Between those levels, I don't think there is much reason to force a directional call.
The bigger catalyst is coming from outside the chart.
Friday's U.S. jobs report.
Markets are currently paying close attention to the possibility of a September Fed rate hike after recent hawkish comments.
That expectation matters because crypto remains highly sensitive to liquidity conditions.
If the labor market shows meaningful weakness, rate-hike expectations could cool.
That could pressure yields lower and improve the environment for risk assets.
In that scenario, Bitcoin could get another opportunity to attack $80K.
But if the employment data remains unexpectedly strong, the market could price in tighter policy for longer.
That would potentially strengthen the dollar, push yields higher and make the path above $80K much harder.
So the next BTC move may be less about what traders want to happen and more about what the macro data forces the market to price.
There's another signal I don't want to ignore.
Despite roughly $924M of spot BTC ETF inflows from August 24–28, Bitcoin still struggled to establish itself above $80K.
That's a fascinating battle.
Real capital is entering.
But sellers are still absorbing that demand near resistance.
Ethereum is showing strong institutional interest as well, with roughly $824M flowing into spot ETH ETFs over the same period.
If ETH continues attracting capital while BTC stabilizes, the market could eventually transition from Bitcoin-led strength toward broader crypto participation.
But I wouldn't assume that rotation is guaranteed.
First, Bitcoin needs to prove that the current range can resolve higher. $BTC High volatility, $ETH relatively strong, ETF funds continue to provide support, but short-term divergence is already emerging. 1. Market Performance: BTC Holds Below $80,000, ETH Relatively Stronger BTC is currently around $78,800 and has been rising over the past seven days, but $80,000 has clearly become a short-term resistance level. BTC's cumulative gain in August was nearly 25%, the best month since November 2024. However, September historically tends to be weak, so now it seems more like digesting earlier gains at high levels rather than continuing to accelerate one-sidedly. ETH is currently around $2460–$2480, with a slight 24-hour increase, and its performance over the past month has clearly outperformed BTC. More importantly, ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of about $824 million in the past week, indicating that this ETH rally is not just following BTC's rally; institutional funds are also entering simultaneously. As for altcoins (altcoins), not all coins are rising at the same time. $SOL Around $100, there are still signs of BTC rotating into high-beta assets like SOL; HYPE has also maintained strong performance recently. Conversely, some coins like SUI and AVAX have clearly pulled back in recent days, indicating that funds are still concentrated in a few strong sectors rather than widespread spread. 2. Liquidity Side: ETFs are still being bought, but BTC is starting to show "capital inflows, no price breakouts"—this phenomenon is most worth watching today. August 24 to 28, US spot BTC Frankly, the current market is a tug-of-war that has everyone feeling uneasy—afraid of chasing highs and getting stuck, yet also afraid of missing out, caught in a dilemma.
Actually, it’s not that complicated. Although $BTC hasn’t dropped yet, ETF funds have already started net outflows, and the Bitcoin balance on exchanges is increasing, indicating some are distributing at highs, but the buying funds haven’t caught up.
This rally is mainly driven by US liquidity injections; fundamentals haven’t substantially improved, and short-term profit-taking has also accumulated.
Technically, 77,000 is the short-term lifeline. Once broken, it could trigger a stampede, possibly dropping directly to around 73,000. On the upside, 81,000 is a strong resistance level; only a breakout with volume counts as a true breakout, otherwise, it will likely oscillate around 80,000.
So my view is:
Mid-term remains bullish, with loose macro liquidity and ongoing institutional allocations, so there’s still room ahead.
Short-term, I lean towards a pullback or consolidation, given ETF outflows, increased exchange coin stacking, and September historically being a weaker month; the market needs time to digest.
A real directional breakout may have to wait until after the Federal Reserve meeting in late September. The best strategy now is to patiently wait for a pullback and not rush in. Opportunities come from waiting, not chasing.
$BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC IS ENTERING SEPTEMBER WITH A MACRO DECISION AHEAD
Bitcoin's August rally was impressive, but the market enters September with a very different setup.
$BTC gained roughly 23% in August, recovering strongly from the lows before eventually running into heavy resistance around the $80K area.
Now the question isn't simply whether Bitcoin can keep climbing.
The bigger question is whether the next macro catalyst gives buyers enough fuel to break the ceiling.
And Friday's U.S. jobs report could be one of the most important pieces of that puzzle.
The market has been increasingly focused on the possibility of a September rate hike following hawkish Federal Reserve commentary.
That matters because Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity and interest-rate expectations.
If employment data comes in weaker than expected, markets could begin reducing rate-hike expectations.
Lower rate expectations could ease pressure on yields and risk assets, potentially giving BTC another opportunity to challenge the $80K–$81K region.
But a stronger labor report could produce the opposite reaction.
Higher rate expectations.
Higher yields.
Stronger dollar.
More pressure on risk assets.
So the jobs report isn't just another economic release.
It could change the short-term market narrative.
Technically, Bitcoin is still trapped between important levels.
Support: $77K
Resistance: $79.4K–$80.8K
A sustained break above resistance would strengthen the bullish case and potentially reopen the path toward the recent highs.
But losing $77K would weaken the current structure and could bring lower support levels back into focus.
The ETF data adds another interesting layer.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $924M between August 24 and 28, yet BTC still struggled to establish a decisive move above $80K.
That tells us something important:
There is demand.
But there is also significant supply waiting at higher prices.
Ethereum is showing a similar institutional story.
ETH ETFs attracted roughly $824M during the same period
$BTC $ETH $SOL $XRP ETH pulled up from around $1900 to the doorstep of $2500 in August, but failed to hold steady several times by the end of the month. The price returned to around $2440, with a monthly gain still close to 30%, but the daily momentum has cooled down.
Many people only focus on the moment of the breakout, but I pay more attention to whether there is sustained trading above $2500. Pushing past and then being pushed back often indicates that the funds in the market are not yet ready to lift this rally into a new platform.
Right now, $2400 is the short-term dividing line. Holding it can be understood as a turnover after the rise, and the $2450 to $2500 range still has opportunities for repeated testing. If it breaks below and fails to recover for a long time, the area around $2200 will come back into view.
The previous rally was too fast, with leverage and profit-taking clustered together. The most common scenario during volatility is that it looks fine during the day, but suddenly a spike at night clears positions on both sides.
Macroeconomic variables are also on the table. Employment data will affect the market's judgment on the September interest rate path; weaker data will ease liquidity pressure, while stronger data may cool risk appetite first.
This ETH rebound is not just driven by sentiment; funds still have expectations for on-chain activity and staking yields, but short-term prices still cannot escape the macro rhythm.
For now, I do not consider $2500 as a confirmed breakout. The trend will be more comfortable if it can digest above $2400 for a few days and then turn $2500 into support underfoot. If it only rallies on news and then falls back, the stronger it looks, the more room should be left for a pullback $ETH
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)Bitcoin Is Holding $78K. Friday’s Jobs Report Could Decide What Comes Next.
$BTC is entering September with the market caught between strong August momentum and a much tougher macro environment.
Bitcoin gained roughly 23% in August, but failed to hold the move above $80K.
Now the next major catalyst is already on the calendar.
The U.S. jobs report.
My radar:
🟠 $BTC — $77K support, $79.4K–$80.8K resistance
🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength
🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity
🟢 $XRP — watching institutional demand
The jobs report matters because the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult decision.
Markets are currently pricing around a 60% probability of a September rate hike after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
But that expectation can change quickly if employment data comes in weaker than expected. 0
That is why Friday's number could become the next major trigger for risk assets.
A weak jobs report could reduce rate-hike expectations.
Lower rate expectations could support liquidity.
And that could give Bitcoin another opportunity to challenge $80K.
But a stronger-than-expected labor report could have the opposite effect.
Higher rate expectations.
Higher yields.
More pressure on risk assets.
That is the macro battle happening underneath the chart.
Technically, the structure is still clear.
Buyers defended the $77K area.
But sellers continue to appear around $80K.
Bitcoin is therefore sitting between important support and resistance while the market waits for a catalyst. 1
There is also an interesting institutional signal.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $924M between August 24 and 28.
Yet price still failed to break $80K.
That suggests strong demand is being met by significant selling pressure.
This is where $ETH becomes interesting.
Ethereum ETFs also attracted around $824M during the same period, showing that institutional demand is not limited to Bitcoin.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BTCGoldCorrelation