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Your framework makes sense as a market-reading exercise, but I’d avoid treating those BTC levels as guaranteed reactions. The actual July CPI was 3.4% YoY, with core CPI at 2.5%, both broadly in line with expectations. After the release, September hike expectations eased somewhat, but the CPI print did not completely settle the Fed question. For the setup you described, the cleanest interpretation is: Hotter than 3.4%: more pressure on risk assets. Around 3.4%: likely more emphasis on positioning/liquidity than the headline itself. Cooler than 3.4%: potentially supportive for BTC/ETH, but only if yields and the dollar cooperate. Big lesson: a CPI number can trigger volatility without determining the whole trend. And your last line is probably the most sensible one: if you aren't confident about the reaction, staying flat is a valid outcome. You don't have to catch the first move.