Допис

I’ve been thinking a lot about conditional markets the past few days. A whole PM sub-economy that scopes the downstream implications of an event can be built using conditional markets. Take Eth slot times as an example: “Will Ethereum slot times be reduced to 3 seconds in the next 12 months?” - If YES: “Will $ETH burn double in the following 6 months?” Y/N - If YES: “Will DEX liquidity increase by 30% or more in the following 12 months?” Y/N - If YES: “Will the number of onchain apps deployed to mainnet increase by 30% or more in the following 12 months?” Y/N - If YES: “Will 2 or more staking providers begin co-locating in the following 12 months?” Y/N - If YES: “Will Ethereum’s Nakamoto coefficient increase in the following 12 months?” Y/N The decisional value of these sub-markets is tremendous, and each additional conditional market also increases the open interest and liquidity for the original event. Since the conditional markets are contingent the original event resolving to YES, and collateralized by that outcome, if the original event resolves to NO, traders in the conditional markets all get their money back. So they’re only risking capital conditionally! All it takes is a little clever abstraction in the background, and trading in/out of these sub markets can be as seamless as trading any event contract.