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#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ On the eve of the CPI release, gold and BTC have diverged $XAU is at 4400. $BTC at 63800. One has risen for a month, the other has fallen for four days. Same macro background, two directions. On the night non-farm payrolls turned negative, gold surged from 4216 to 4370, and BTC from 64111 to 65333, moving in sync. Both were betting on a rate cut. Then they started to diverge. Gold kept pushing up, 4400, 4448, with no turning back. BTC slid from 65000 down to 63800, a 1500-point drop, as if someone was slowly draining it. Why? Gold’s logic is simple—weak non-farm payrolls mean rate cut expectations remain, the dollar weakens, gold rises. No other reason needed. One data point is enough. BTC is different. At the 65000 level, it was under pressure from two forces simultaneously. $ETH was buying, whales were selling. The funds on both sides balanced out, and the price stayed flat for a few days. Then it started to fall. It’s not that buying was insufficient, but that selling was too large. Last week, ETF net inflows were 865 million, but 900 million was sold on-chain. As much bought as sold, a futile effort. Gold doesn’t have 900 million in on-chain selling pressure, no whales unloading, no miners transferring. Gold’s supply won’t suddenly increase by 900 million in sell orders. BTC will. Abraxas Capital’s wallet is also active. In the past three days, it moved 25,400 XAUT, worth 110 million USD. Funds are moving into gold, withdrawing from BTC. Tonight’s CPI will decide who laughs last. If the data is weak, rate cut expectations will be confirmed, and BTC might be pulled back to reunite with gold. If the data is strong, rate hike expectations bounce back, gold might be suppressed, and BTC could continue downward. Gold and BTC have temporarily diverged. Tonight’s CPI will decide whether they come back together or drift further apart.