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Tonight's CPI will determine the next moves of BTC and ETH Last week, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000. Logically, with employment clearly cooling, the market should lower its rate hike expectations, but the latest pricing has once again returned to an even split. This indicates that my previous guess aligns with the market's stance; the market has not fully believed in the weakening employment. Employment data only opened a window to pause rate hikes; the real determinant of the Fed's stance remains inflation. Therefore, the CPI data released tonight is especially critical. The market expects the overall CPI monthly rate to be 0.1% and the core CPI monthly rate to be 0.2%. If the actual data is lower than expected, the resonance of weak employment and cooling inflation may cause rate hike expectations to fall again, potentially supporting BTC and ETH. But if the core CPI is hotter than expected, the market will worry again about the Fed continuing to raise rates. BTC and ETH may then face a round of repricing. Tonight, don't just focus on the overall CPI; the core monthly rate might be the number the market truly cares about. Since current policy expectations are close to an even split, volatility after the data release could be significant, possibly with initial spikes up and down to clear leverage before a true direction emerges. Ultimately, what the market needs to confirm tonight is whether weak employment can suppress rate hike expectations or if stubborn inflation will force the Fed to step on the brakes again. $BTC $ETH $XAU #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？