
大老师Bunny
Feed
Feed
Brief synchronization of important information
1. There should be significant progress in the Strait of Hormuz this week
If progress occurs, it will immediately benefit the Japanese and South Korean stock markets
Here you can directly call $KORU $SOXL
Crude oil is also the biggest threat to inflation in Japan and South Korea
Relative changes in the strait will bring a relative opposite effect to the market
2. I will fully accompany everyone for the 10y US Treasury auction at 1:00 on Wednesday
This 10y US Treasury auction may be the most important of this quarter
It will guide whether the market heads toward a recession
3. Employment data, CPI, and PPI guidance all point to no rate hikes, but last week's decline in consumer data has raised market concerns about a recession. Today's decline is also due to this
4. This decline is unrelated to defensive moves before NVDA earnings; this time it is more about recession defense causing the drop
A typical safe haven
5. Gold remains an important long-term target
6. Pay attention to the cryptocurrency summit held at the White House on Wednesday, with participants including SEC, CFTC, and crypto company leaders such as Coinbase, Robinhood, Ripple, Gemini, etc. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said tokenization may become a focus of the summit.
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
cohr csco guessed right
cbrs guessed wrong again
#财报观察员:AI基建财报接力登场



CSCO earnings report bearish
$CSCO
In the last 30 minutes of the close, a large bullish option close-out appeared, seemingly deliberate
Expected move: 7.57% (+/- $9.36)
From the option GEX perspective, 130 and 135 also become important resistance levels for CSCO
While 110 is also an important support level for CSCO
At the close between 13:30-13:35, a large ITM bullish sell order was executed
This will be an extremely bearish option position
————————
This only represents the option market view, and deviation from facts is relatively normal
#财报观察员:AI基建财报接力登场



Bullish after CBRS earnings report
$CBRS
has been strong since the earnings report
Expected move: 11.46% (+/- $29.85)
As of 3:30, $290 is the current target price for the bulls
And there is heavy profit-taking and long liquidation at $300
#财报观察员:AI基建财报接力登场

COHR Earnings Preview
Options market bearish on earnings / below expectations
$COHR
has seen a large number of short positions opened, with further bearish option trades occurring in the last thirty minutes
Expected move: 8.92% (+/- $31.57)
From the options orders, COHR is unlikely to fall below 300 or break above 400
The 9DTE 350 PUT is the main bearish option order; the options market expects COHR to fall below $350 after earnings
The divergence in options amid today's strong market is worth noting
#财报观察员:AI基建财报接力登场


As expected, thank you all
Also watched the market all night
Let's talk about the market changes
Yesterday at the open, the overall market sectors were under pressure, with tech stocks and semiconductors facing high-level suppression
But in the last ten minutes, SOXX and Neocloud both saw significant rallies before earnings reports
This means the market is not so fearful of this CPI
So my judgment is that it meets expectations
But possibly due to the current high price of CL (crude oil)
FED officials may still come out and say
"If the current crude oil price holds or rises, the Fed will still take action"—the usual rhetoric
But this does not affect market sentiment
#今晚CPI公布,9月加息定价会改写吗?
Also watched the market all night
Let's talk about the market changes
Yesterday at the open, the overall market sectors were under pressure, with tech stocks and semiconductors facing high-level suppression
But in the last ten minutes, SOXX and Neocloud both saw significant rallies before earnings reports
This means the market is not so fearful of this CPI
So my judgment is that it meets expectations
But possibly due to the current high price of CL (crude oil)
FED officials may still come out and say
"If the current crude oil price holds or rises, the Fed will still take action"—the usual rhetoric
But this does not affect market sentiment
#今晚CPI公布,9月加息定价会改写吗?
This is almost the most important CPI release.
The market is frantically defending.
All key sectors are under pressure.
My judgment is, if it beats expectations, the Fed will also come out to address the current oil price issue with agile action.
If it falls short of expectations, the market will reprice and decline overall.
#本周三CPI公布,9月加息定价会改写吗?
The financial report forecasting work still needs to continue. Thank you, everyone
Before the SNDK earnings report, the options structure is already clearly bearish. $SNDK
The call wall is concentrated around 1400-1500.
The current price has dropped below 1400, directly entering a clearly negative gamma zone.
At this point, market makers' hedging behavior turns into "selling puts and buying calls," which inversely amplifies volatility, making downward movement easier to accelerate.
The near-month max pain is mostly around 1370, and the gamma flip is also in this range, meaning that options expiration and hedging forces themselves are pushing the price toward this level.
More importantly, today's trading: a large number of call options are being closed. This is not new bullish positions but profit-taking and exposure reduction by longs.
Especially before earnings, this kind of operation is almost never a strong bullish signal. The implied volatility priced post-earnings movement is about 15-16% (straddle cost), and historical actual volatility is often greater, but the directional bias is already cautious.
Adding two more real confirmations:
1. Partner stock Kioxia surged at open but then directly pulled back, cooling sentiment first;
2. Wall Street expectations are clearly above company guidance (EPS consensus ≈35 vs guidance 30-33), and under high expectations, the risk of "meeting expectations but disappointing" is maximized.
Negative gamma + call closing + partner pullback + overly high expectations make the bearish logic before earnings clearer.
#闪迪财报前夕,HBF与存储紧缺引发热议


Today's After-Hours Earnings Reports · Summary
Bearish:
SNDK — Negative gamma + heavy call unwinding + overly high expectations, partner Kioxia retracing, high risk of disappointment once targets are met.
WDC — Strong correlation with SNDK, storage sector under pressure, cautious options sentiment.
Bullish:
APP — Put wall at 410 provides strong support, negative gamma amplifies upside, consensus on high growth.
DASH — Orders/GOV steady, consensus revenue +30%+, clear growth logic.
FIG — Accelerated AI monetization + NDR at a high level, guidance has room for upward revision. Risk of storage sector double whammy, others depend on execution. Focus on guidance.
$SNDK
#WDC
$APP
$DASH
$FIG
#财报观察员:业绩喜忧参半,解禁将至!SpaceX后续怎么看?