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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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美伊局势又陷入沉默的“僵局”阶段,其实这个阶段我反而是最担心的,明面上没有任何消息,那么私下的沟通博弈的激烈程度就会大大增加,而私下沟通往往决定了未来事态的发展方向 在缺乏有效开源消息的现在,Brent出现小幅反弹,意味着市场对于美伊局势定价进入“瓶颈期”,而Brent 90美元对于风险市场也是一个关键点,有效跌破与继续反弹,将会直接影响当前的宏观走向 此前Brent 的下跌主要是资本市场对当前美伊局势重新定价导致,而这个定价已经初步完成,Brent目前的走势主要依赖于能源市场供应情况维持震荡,但是最终方向选择还是要以来美伊局势发展,以及霍尔木兹海峡管控 90美元,对风险市场,对能源市场,对全球经济与通胀,都是一步“天堂”一步“地狱”,美伊局势顺利谈判往下跌破,对全球经济,通胀,金融与风险市场都是好事。反之,美伊局势恶化,资本对能源价格定价进一步恶化,将会再次冲击全球经济、通胀,金融与风险市场! 尤其是风险市场,短期12月加息or加息50BP预期出现,一旦此时Brnet回归95美元甚至100美元上方,将会雪上加霜!#美方倾向持续经济施压,伊朗否认正在谈判
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
How credible is Trump's claim that the "war is over"?
How credible is Trump's so-called "war is over" statement? On Monday, U.S. time, Trump publicly stated after meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed that the military aspect of the U.S.-Iran war has "actually ended," which essentially cools down the current Middle East geopolitical and international energy situation. But can Trump's words really be trusted? How credible are they? If Trump signals a stop but takes no other actions, I actually think the credibility of this statement is very low, and it might even be a tactic to confuse the opponent. However, Trump clearly stated that the end of the military aspect does not mean troop withdrawal; at the same time, economic sanctions and the "Iron Curtain Task Force" continue to enforce a comprehensive blockade on Iran, while diplomatic communication channels remain open. #New proposals emerge for U.S.-Iran peace talks, can navigation through the Strait of Hormuz be restored? This means that in Trump's view, the approach has shifted from fighting while negotiating to sanctioning while negotiating, with military strikes as the last deterrent. This is a marginal positive for the energy market, international finance, and risk markets. Also, as I mentioned yesterday, Hegseth is very likely to "take the fall" for this failed U.S.-Iran war, which also gives Trump a way out. Subsequently, the U.S. and Iran may return to long-term economic sanctions and negotiation games. The risk in the Strait of Hormuz still exists, but after the geopolitical risk is downgraded, the panic pricing sentiment in international energy will significantly ease. Currently, my only concern is that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu might suddenly launch an attack on Iran. Of course, I believe the current Netanyahu cannot persuade Trump to act in sync, after all, Netanyahu is in the middle of...

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