How credible is Trump's claim that the "war is over"?
How credible is Trump's so-called "war is over" statement? On Monday, U.S. time, Trump publicly stated after meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed that the military aspect of the U.S.-Iran war has "actually ended," which essentially cools down the current Middle East geopolitical and international energy situation. But can Trump's words really be trusted? How credible are they? If Trump signals a stop but takes no other actions, I actually think the credibility of this statement is very low, and it might even be a tactic to confuse the opponent. However, Trump clearly stated that the end of the military aspect does not mean troop withdrawal; at the same time, economic sanctions and the "Iron Curtain Task Force" continue to enforce a comprehensive blockade on Iran, while diplomatic communication channels remain open. #New proposals emerge for U.S.-Iran peace talks, can navigation through the Strait of Hormuz be restored? This means that in Trump's view, the approach has shifted from fighting while negotiating to sanctioning while negotiating, with military strikes as the last deterrent. This is a marginal positive for the energy market, international finance, and risk markets. Also, as I mentioned yesterday, Hegseth is very likely to "take the fall" for this failed U.S.-Iran war, which also gives Trump a way out. Subsequently, the U.S. and Iran may return to long-term economic sanctions and negotiation games. The risk in the Strait of Hormuz still exists, but after the geopolitical risk is downgraded, the panic pricing sentiment in international energy will significantly ease. Currently, my only concern is that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu might suddenly launch an attack on Iran. Of course, I believe the current Netanyahu cannot persuade Trump to act in sync, after all, Netanyahu is in the middle of...
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