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比特帝剧本哥
比特帝剧本哥
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如果加息预期已经提前反映在价格里 后面即使美联储维持鹰派 也不一定继续大跌 反过来 如果通胀继续超预期 市场重新上调利率预期 风险资产恐怕还得承压 所以现在的大饼 不仅要看链上资金 还得盯着美元、美债收益率和ETF流向 以前大家盼着降息带来牛市 现在才发现 降息预期本身就能让市场折腾好几轮 你们觉得 这轮大饼的压力 主要来自宏观流动性 还是市场自身的资金需求不足? $BTC
比特帝剧本哥
比特帝剧本哥
The most uncomfortable thing this time is probably not the US stock market but risk assets like Bitcoin The US dollar is strengthening US Treasury yields are rising Liquidity expectations are starting to tighten again It's indeed not that easy for Bitcoin to rise There is a very awkward situation in the market right now US employment data exceeded expectations indicating the economy still has some resilience for the time being but inflation hasn't completely come down which makes it hard for the Federal Reserve to ease up The longer interest rates stay high the more attractive US dollar assets become Capital will naturally re-evaluate returns and risks Buying US Treasuries offers relatively stable returns So why rush to buy such a volatile asset like Bitcoin? This is also why once macro expectations turn hawkish Bitcoin often comes under pressure But this shouldn't be simply understood as when the dollar rises, Bitcoin must fall What really affects the market are capital flows and market expectations $BTC $ETH $ZEC

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