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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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原油价格短期反弹了,主要是目前美伊之间的局势进入了一个“微妙”阶段,市场开始担心美伊局势从乐观回归紧张局势 目前,美国的要求很简单,恢复谈判+恢复霍尔木兹海峡,同步进行。 而伊朗,从与伊朗建立新海峡协议,到确定航线图,到今天的初步航线确定,紧接着开始与阿曼商讨如何瓜分利益,步步紧逼,以特朗普的视角属于蹬鼻子上脸。 一旦让伊朗与阿曼完成整个海峡协议,新航道的确定,以及开始收费并且瓜分利益,那么海峡的主权基本被伊朗与阿曼拿下,伊朗就不在是政治意义上拥有海峡,而是完成了对海峡的实际掌控与监管。 面对这种条件,市场并不认为美国或者特朗普可以接受,所以伊朗的步步紧逼让市场开始恐慌,毕竟这是在挑战特朗普与美国的神经 穆尼尔虽然为美伊之间重新打开了60天谈判窗口,但是伊朗名义上的条件越来越严苛,并且加速对海峡的掌控,这显然是增加美伊矛盾,而不是往乐观局势推进。 令人意外的是特朗普的反应,仅仅表示谈判不急,算是给穆尼尔60天谈判窗口降温,没有愤怒的特朗普确实令人意外。 目前市场的担忧,还是对于伊朗的步步紧逼以及美国的尚未表态,只是担心,还未回归恐慌!#美扩大对伊制裁,海峡复航谈判推进
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Based on the currently announced temporary route between Iran and Oman, it is clear that Iran is taking concrete actions to supervise and control the Strait of Hormuz. The temporary route is about 7 nautical miles ≈ 13 kilometers wide. According to data from August 4, the entrance is most likely close to Omani waters, but the main passage subsequently goes through Iranian waters, entering under Iranian supervision. The exit passes through Iranian waters and then through Omani waters, with Oman deciding whether to allow passage, but Iran must be notified and has the right to be informed. Additionally, according to current information, the activation of the new temporary route means the original southern route will be closed, and all ships in the coming months will have to pass through the temporary route. Overall, Iran no longer relies on political control over the sovereignty of the strait but has moved into actual supervision and control. This is very unfavorable for the United States. Under what conditions can the U.S. accept this reality? #美扩大对伊制裁,海峡复航谈判推进

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