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Gold at $4630, do you dare to chase? First, look at the surface: The $4700 charge failed, retail investors panic shouting "double top." Yesterday it touched 4696-4700, a three-month high, then fell back to the current 4630. PCE data will be released tonight, Jackson Hole meeting is the climax on Friday, the market is holding its breath. 4600-4615 is a strong support zone, moving averages are bullish, the major trend is intact, don’t get shaken out. First thing: $4700 failed three times, but $4600 held three times. First charge to $4700, dropped back to $4500. Second charge to $4700, dropped back to $4550. Third charge to $4700—now retesting 4630, didn’t even touch 4600. This is called "high-level consolidation," not a "trend reversal." At the same position, the lower lows are getting higher, which means someone is quietly accumulating below 4600. Second thing: Central banks are buying, you are afraid. China’s central bank increased gold holdings by 20 tons in July, continuous increases for over 20 months. Poland, Turkey, India—central banks worldwide are buying. The Treasury expands long-term bond repurchases, actual interest rate expectations loosen. What does US bond repurchase mean? Dollar credit is being discounted, gold is becoming the "ultimate reserve" again. Central banks buying gold is not short-term speculation, it’s as a "ballast stone." You fear Fed rate hikes, central banks fear dollar collapse. Gold at 4600 is officially considered outrageously cheap. Third thing: Tonight’s PCE is the real battlefield, but 95% of people are prepared wrong. Market expects core PCE YoY to hold at 3.2-3.3%, MoM about 0.2%. Weaker than expected → dollar falls, gold surges to 4665-4700, even new highs. Stronger than expected → September rate hike expectations return, gold drops to 4555 or deeper. Neutral data → 4615-4675 range-bound, wait for Friday’s speech to set direction. PCE is just a warm-up, Friday’s Jackson Hole is the real "dragon slayer." Resistance above: 4665-4675 → 4690-4700 → 4720 Support below: 4615-4620 → 4600-4585 → 4555 Trading strategy General principle: Reduce positions before PCE release, don’t go all in. After data, watch closing position before acting. Scenario A: Soft PCE + holding 4615-4620 Buy in batches on pullback to 4618-4632, target 4665→4690-4700, stop loss 4588-4595. This is the high-probability direction. Scenario B: Hot PCE + volume break below 4600 Short or reduce longs on rebound to 4635-4655, target 4585→4555, stop loss above 4665. Don’t be stubborn, accept bearish data. Scenario C: Neutral data, 4615-4675 range-bound Sell high, buy low, position no more than 30%. Wait for Friday’s speech to decide trend trade. Position rules: Leverage within 5-10x, gold data days have large slippage. Funding rate near zero, balanced longs and shorts, but volatility explodes after data. Single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital. Gold now is like Bitcoin in 2023— 99% think "it’s risen too much," but central banks and institutions keep buying, price keeps rising. The day $4700 breaks through, you’ll realize: It’s not that gold is weak, it’s that you keep cutting losses before data. For those wanting to copy trades, look here: Don’t chase longs at 4630, wait for data. Weak PCE + hold 4600 → go long to 4700. Strong PCE + break 4600 → short to 4555. Reduce positions before Friday’s speech, don’t bet on direction. What is your gold cost? Tonight’s PCE, are you betting long or short? $BTC $XAU $XAUT