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WTI fell below 80, Brent is approaching 85. There has been progress on the ceasefire, risk assets should be celebrating—right? But BTC is still stuck grinding between 78,000-79,000. Bitcoin once surged to $81,237, then immediately dropped. Oil prices fell 5% in one day, but BTC acted like it didn’t hear anything. Why? Three words: "Not signed yet." 📌 Russian media says consensus reached ✅ 📌 Iran says a temporary route understanding has been reached, limited to commercial ships ✅ 📌 Trump says mines have been cleared ✅ 📌 Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister says it won’t open immediately ❌ 📌 White House officials say no negotiation arrangements yet ❌ What the market fears most is not bad news—but "good news that hasn’t materialized." Oil prices have already dropped because the market is pricing in peace in advance. But BTC doesn’t dare to surge because no one knows if Trump will wake up tomorrow and tweet again to flip the table. This script is too familiar: good news comes out → price rallies first → then it’s found to be from “sources” → no official confirmation → price falls back → when the actual signing day comes, the price can’t rally anymore. But the direction is clear: 🔹 The route opens → short-term pressure on oil prices → inflation expectations ease → positive for risk assets 🔹 Sanctions not lifted → Iran accelerates de-dollarization → long-term demand for crypto rises 🔹 Rising expectations of dollar depreciation → BTC just broke 80,000 three days ago, hitting a three-month high Short term: volatile waiting for signing. Long term: upward trend unchanged. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen put it bluntly—the Iranian leadership has acknowledged that economic pressure is working. The Trump administration intends to continue cutting off Iran’s economic lifeline until Tehran is isolated. What does this mean? Sanctions won’t be lifted easily. What does this mean? The story of de-dollarization is far from over. $BTC $CL $BZ #美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进