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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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美伊局势利好再补“一刀”,路透社援引伊朗议会外交关系委员会负责人的表态,穆尼尔周一访问德黑兰时,确定带来了来自美国的消息 路透社消息中明确了美伊双方的态度,美国愿意为谈判撤销制裁,伊朗表他愿意恢复谈判的态度。 结合前文中,伊朗、巴基斯坦官方均对此次外交访问表示乐观态度,目前市场情绪加速走向乐观,这是好事。 最关键的是,伊朗官员承诺很快公布穆尼尔访问调节的结果,很显然如果结果是积极的,今晚应该有所公布。 接下里今晚重点关注来自伊朗官方公布的调节结果,然后看巴基斯坦官方是否对此结果进行认可,最后看美国官方对此调节结果是否最终确认。 另一条线,伊朗外长与阿曼外长已经开始对话,这意味着海峡协议也在加速,算是双重利好。 虽然关键消息还未确认,不仅仅是原油价格下跌进行定价,黄金、美元、美债与美股都走出乐观趋势,消息一旦确认,国际原油下挫80美元下方,整体对本周的宏观情绪都是一个潜在的利好。 一旦美伊表示重回谈判桌+海峡新协议达成,海峡恢复通航,原油价格我认为会短期迎来加速下跌!#美启动对伊经济孤立,油价为何回落?
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
August 25 Analysis of US-Iran Situation: Short-term positive outlook for US-Iran relations, energy market uses prices to vote for validation, whether the positive trend can continue, pay attention to follow-up observation points!
Analysis of the US-Iran situation on August 25: Short-term positive developments in the US-Iran situation, energy market will be tested by price votes. Whether the positive trend will last depends on future observation points! From yesterday until now, there are several key pieces of news to note: 1. Iran's Foreign Ministry denied receiving an official invitation to the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement, clarifying that it was only an informal contact and treating Iran's accession as a downgrade. 2. Another unknown attack on an oil tanker in the Red Sea caused a deck fire. The facts prove that the feasibility of using the Strait of Hormuz as an alternative route is not high. The Houthis later admitted to the attack. 3. Pakistan's military leader No. 1 Munir discussed a new plan in Tehran. The main theme of the plan is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume US-Iran negotiations. Key figures in regional regulators have begun to clarify their mediation stance, which is a positive signal for the US-Iran situation. Iran subsequently responded without explicitly rejecting the new proposal, pledging to continue implementing the June U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding on the condition that the U.S. honors its commitments. 4. Oman's Foreign Minister visited Tehran, and the Omani Foreign Minister followed Munir for his visit. Combined with Munir's new proposal, this is seen as a further positive signal. 5. After U.S. Secretary of Defense Hagueseth made remarks about economic sanctions against Besent, he indicated that continued military strikes could not be ruled out. In my view, Bescent's comments were soft, so the Department of Defense responded by giving the U.S. a tough diplomatic stance. 6. After Munir concluded his visit to Tehran, Pakistan's Interior Minister stated that the visit had made "significant progress," but according to current open-source information

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