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Gold at $4640, would you dare to buy? First, look at the surface: it has risen too much, retail investors fear the high price and dare not get on board. In the past month, it has risen 14%, with 12 positive trading days out of 15, shooting straight from below 4200 to 4680. The candlestick chart tells you: moving averages are in a bullish alignment, RSI around 70 (overbought but strong momentum can sustain), bullish structure intact, pullbacks are buying opportunities. But you hesitate: it has already risen so much, can you still chase? First thing: gold is turning into "gold that is not gold." What used to drive gold up? Inflation, safe haven demand, and a weaker dollar. What about now? The expansion of the US Treasury repo program triggers a "dollar devaluation narrative"—the US government is essentially printing money to buy its own debt. Tensions between the US and Iran escalate, sanctions and retaliation expectations boost safe haven demand. The 30-year US Treasury yield recently hit a 19-year high, yet gold prices still rose. Got it? Gold now is not just about interest rates; it’s trading on the "fiscal collapse" logic. Second thing: central banks and ETFs are accumulating, retail investors are watching. Last week, gold ETFs saw inflows of nearly 47 tons, one of the largest weekly inflows since 2022. The Chinese central bank has been increasing gold holdings for consecutive months without stopping. More importantly: every time gold price dips, ETF inflows accelerate. Institutions treat this pullback as a discount sale, while retail investors wait for "a little more drop." What you wait for might be a bottom that never comes. Third thing: there are two nuclear events this week you need to watch out for. August 26: July PCE inflation data. Soft data → rising rate cut expectations → gold price surges past 4700+ Hot data → short-term volatility increases, but safe haven demand might push gold higher. August 27-29: Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers keynote speech on Friday. This is his policy framework debut, market extremely sensitive. Rates are currently 3.50-3.75%, rate cut cycle has begun. If Warsh dovetails, gold will take off; if hawkish, short-term pullback but mid-term logic remains. Bull vs. bear, you decide. On one side: 12 up days out of 15, bullish trend intact ETF inflows of 47 tons last week, institutions accelerating entry Central banks keep buying gold, dollar devaluation narrative strengthens Geopolitical risk premium continues to rise On the other side: RSI around 70, short-term overbought needs digestion Three failed attempts to break 4680-4700, profit-taking pressure PCE or hawkish Warsh could trigger pullback Chasing at highs, short-term risk of getting trapped Resistance above: 4680-4700 → 4780 (50% retracement) → 5000 (imagination space) Support below: 4620-4600 → 4587 (38.2% Fibonacci) → 4500 Trading strategy Short-term players: Buy in batches on pullbacks to 4620-4600, stop loss below 4580, first target 4680-4700, break through to watch 4750-4800. Swing traders: Add positions on the right side after a valid breakout above 4700 with volume, target 5000+. If PCE is hotter than expected or Warsh hawkish causes pullback, around 4500 is a gold buying point. Long-term believers: Central bank gold buying + fiscal concerns + geopolitical risks, structural bull market far from over. Every pullback is a chance to add. Gold now is a "multi-insurance" asset— 99% of people still use the "real interest rate" model to price gold, not realizing the market is trading "dollar credit reset." The day 4700 breaks through, you will realize: It’s not that gold rose too fast, it’s that you kept using old maps to find new continents. $BTC $XAU $XAUT