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#财政部拟动用TGA，长债回购能否治本？ On August 24, two senior officials from the Ministry of Finance hinted at considering using the TGA to finance long-term bond buybacks. The TGA balance is about 950 billion, but due to minimum reserve requirements, Morgan Stanley estimates the actual usable amount is only 80-200 billion, with the exact amount undisclosed. Previously, BofA raised the single transaction limit for 10-20 year and 20-30 year Treasury buybacks from 2 billion to at least 4 billion, effective September 9, dubbed the "Ministry of Finance version of twist operation." Using TGA cash to directly buy long-term bonds avoids issuing more short-term debt, causing limited net impact on reserves, seemingly "cleaner" than issuing short-term debt to buy long-term bonds. Upon the news, the 10-year yield fell by 4 basis points, gold rose above 4670, and Bitcoin broke through $80,000, all strengthening simultaneously. But Wall Street poured cold water: Deutsche Bank said the impact was "basically zero," and Goldman Sachs bluntly stated it does not solve the root cause of long-end volatility. In fact, the rebound after the initial announcement on August 19 lasted less than 24 hours. Barclays estimates the expansion is equivalent to an additional quarterly purchase of about 16 billion, which accounts for only 0.05% of the 32.3 trillion publicly held US debt. The root cause is the massive debt supply caused by the fiscal deficit, not poor liquidity of old bonds. Using cash to buy bonds is a demand-side hedge and does not address supply-side contradictions. The TGA is originally an emergency buffer; using it to support the market consumes the safety cushion, and once the market sees through this, it actually strengthens the fiscal risk premium. Effective in the short term, but a cure? Far from it. The real solution is either fiscal consolidation or Federal Reserve intervention; the former is politically impossible, and the latter is currently on hold. $BTC