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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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4670美元的黄金,你还在等什么? 先看表面:从7月低点4000附近弹回4670,两个月涨了17%。 现货黄金突破4670美元/盎司,日内涨1.43%;纽约期金更是一举突破4700。周涨约6-7%,月涨约15%,创下逾三个月新高。不到一周时间,黄金连续冲破4500、4600两道关口。K线告诉你:这不是反弹,是趋势反转。 第一件事:美元信用正在崩塌,而你还在盯着CPI。 美国财政部上周意外宣布,将长期国债回购规模至少提高一倍。 听懂了吗?美国政府自己都怕国债卖不出去,开始亲自下场回购了。 结果是什么?美元指数直接暴跌,黄金单周狂飙超5%。更狠的是——10年期美债收益率短暂回落后快速反弹重回4.7%,反映债务上限临近下美债抛压仍然沉重。 美债没人要,美元不值钱,黄金成了唯一的避风港。 第二件事:高盛改口了,说“4900太保守”。 高盛此前预测2026年底金价4900美元,现在直接改口——原定目标已显保守。为什么? 因为黄金已经进入了“机械式加速带”。期权市场出现“Gamma挤压”——投资者疯狂扫货看涨期权,做市商被迫在金价上行途中加仓对冲,形成 “价格越高、买盘越重”的自我强化循环。 第三件事:两个核弹级事件,本周引爆。 第一颗:7月PCE通胀数据(美联储最偏爱的通胀指标)即将公布。市场预期核心PCE同比维持在3.3%。如果数据偏软——降息预期升温,黄金直接起飞。 第二颗:美联储主席Kevin Warsh在Jackson Hole的首次重磅演讲(北京时间8月28日22点)。市场极度关注其政策信号。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 美元信用崩塌,财政部自己回购国债 全球央行疯狂购金,中国连续21个月增持 高盛改口说4900“太保守”,机构多头仓位六成 SPDR黄金ETF一个月加仓近50吨 一边是: RSI已进入超买区域,短期回调风险存在 PCE若偏热或Warsh鹰派,可能引发获利了结 4670-4700是强阻力区,三次冲关未果 关键位置 上方阻力:4700 → 4720-4750 → 4800 → 4900-5000 下方支撑:4620-4600 → 4550-4570 → 4500 操作策略 短线选手: 回踩4600-4620分批低吸,止损4550,目标4720-4750。放量突破4700可追多,止损4650,看4800-4900。 波段玩家: 等PCE和Warsh讲话落地,偏鸽则重仓做多,目标4900-5000。偏鹰则等回踩4500-4550再上车。 长线信仰者: 4500以下闭眼定投。央行购金+美元信用弱化+美国债务危机,三重驱动下黄金长期目标5000-6000+。 黄金现在就像2023年的比特币—— 99%的人觉得“涨太多了”,结果从2000一路干到4000。 4700突破的那一天,你会发现: 原来不是黄金不行,是你每次都觉得“太高了”。 你的黄金成本是多少? 4670这个位置,你敢上车吗? $BTC $XAU $XAUT
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
AAVE at $135, are you going to chase it? Let's look at the surface first: from $85 to $144, a 70% surge in two weeks. Up 50-60% in the past week, 45-50% in a month, TVL broke through $30 billion (Q3 growth 30%), V4 deposits soared from 50 million to hundreds of millions. Price stands above all medium and long-term moving averages, structure has completely turned bullish. The spring of DeFi is back, don't miss out. While you're hesitating whether to chase, it has fallen back from 144 to 135. First thing: The founder said "Liquidity is back," and this time he might not be lying. One sentence from Stani Kulechov, and the market got excited. But slogans alone don't work—the data is proving him right: Aave protocol's total deposits surpassed $30 billion, with 30% growth since Q3 Active loans about $10 billion, V4 deposits surged from 50 million to hundreds of millions in months Clearing low-yield chains and markets ($98 million deposit optimization), capital efficiency is improving Second thing: The buyback mechanism is coming, AAVE might become an "asset supported by cash flow." The team confirmed they are developing an automated buyback mechanism—protocol revenue plus GHO stablecoin revenue, part of which will be used to buy back AAVE. Aave itself is already making money (lending spread, liquidation fees, GHO interest) Previously, profits went to the treasury, now part will be used directly to buy tokens This is the Web3 version of "stock buybacks," and it will be executed automatically at the protocol level If implemented, AAVE will transform from a "governance token" into an "asset supported by real buy orders." Third thing: The technical side has reached a point where calm is necessary. Weekly chart rose from 85 to 144, a 70% increase in two weeks. RSI entered overbought zone (above 80), 4H/1H charts show high-level consolidation after accelerated upward attack. Volume increased and stabilized above 140, main uptrend continues, targets 157-160 or even 180. If it breaks below 130, a pullback to 120-125 is a healthy correction and shakeout. Bull vs. bear, you decide On one side: TVL broke $30 billion, Q3 growth 30%, real capital inflow Automated buyback mechanism advancing, AAVE will have real buy order support MC/TVL only 0.12, valuation seriously undervalued V4 multi-chain expansion + RWA layout, institutional capital channels opening On the other side: 70% rise in two weeks, RSI overbought, short-term overheating 140-145 resisted three times, profit-taking needs digestion If macro interest rate hike expectations rise, high-beta DeFi will be hit first If BTC fails to hold $75,000, AAVE will inevitably follow with a pullback Key levels Resistance above: 140-145 → 148-150 → 157-160 → 180 Support below: 130-132 → 120-125 (strong support) → 110-115 Trading strategy Short-term players: Wait for a pullback to 128-132 to lightly go long, stop loss below 125, target 140-145. If it breaks below 130 with volume, short hedge with target near 120. Swing traders: Place orders in 120-125 area in batches, stop loss 110-115, targets 150-160, then 180. Long-term believers: Buy the dip below 120 with eyes closed. Aave is the absolute leader in DeFi, MC/TVL seriously undervalued + buyback expectations + RWA catalyst, target 300+ by 2027. If BTC breaks 75,000, reduce positions and observe first. Aave now is like UNI in summer 2020— 99% thought "DeFi is dead," but when liquidity returned, the leader tripled. On the day 140 breaks through, you will realize: It’s not that DeFi is failing, it’s that you only ask if you can chase after it has already risen. What is your AAVE cost? At 135, do you dare to get on board? $BTC $ETH $AAVE

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