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This week's macro framework reference citation, today only need to focus on one thing — US-Iran dynamics 1. Whether the US economic sanctions on Iran will be implemented 2. How the Pakistani military's feedback in Tehran on the 1st is This week's PCE reflects past inflation, while energy prices represent future inflation. At the current stage, the fluctuation function between energy prices and PCE is oil price 5%± fluctuation = core PCE ± 0.03%~0.05% Therefore, this week's PCE and current crude oil prices should be viewed with the same weight, especially today. If the US imposes economic sanctions on Iran (TACO), crude oil prices will return to a downward trend, and inflation will shift toward optimistic expectations. Conversely, if sanctions on Iran are implemented, and secondary economic sanctions on countries like China are designed, crude oil prices will rise, increasing inflationary pressure expectations. Currently, after the US stock market opened, the intraday decline in energy prices stimulated bond yields to weaken, easing inflationary pressure in the short term. However, gold remains strong, US stock risk appetite contracts, and the market is still in a relatively cautious phase! This indicates that uncertainties remain high this week! #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径