Everyone is waiting for Wash this week.
On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. Wall Street calls it "Wash's most critical window to reshape the Fed's credibility."
Everyone is guessing: hawkish or dovish? Will there be a rate hike in September?
But I have an immature opinion——
What he says isn't actually that important.
Why?
Because the market has already told you with real actions:
Last week, Basset intervened to save the bond market—expanding long-term bond repos, trying to suppress U.S. Treasury yields.
And the result?
The dollar dropped nearly 1% that week, gold broke through $4600, and Bitcoin rose over 25% in a single week.
The Treasury Secretary personally intervened, but it was in vain. Instead, it triggered a "currency depreciation trade" for gold and Bitcoin.
Charlie McElligott from Nomura Securities directly pointed out: the strong rise in gold and Bitcoin reflects the market turning anxiety into a chase for currency depreciation and safe-haven assets.
This is the market's vote—it no longer trusts the Federal Reserve.
Three signals prove the Fed is "losing power":
Signal 1: Three dissenting votes at the July meeting—the sharpest internal split in nearly 10 years
On July 30, the Fed held rates steady at 9 to 3.
Cleveland Fed President Harker, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan all voted against, demanding a 25 basis point hike.
This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed had three dissenting votes in the same decision.
The June meeting was unanimous; just over a month later, it went from "unity" to "division."
What credibility does a central bank have if it can't even convince its own people?
Signal 2: No clear guidance after the meeting—not even pretending anymore
Since taking office in May, Wash has adhered to a "quieter Fed"—deliberately avoiding forward guidance, shortening policy statements, and being vague in press conferences.
The market interprets this as "insufficient determination to fight inflation."
Wash clearly stated that the Jackson Hole speech might focus on "macro framework reflection" rather than short-term rate guidance, implying "more likely to reshape policy narrative than to signal rate cuts."
What does that mean?
"I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to do; you guess yourself."
Signal 3: Top capital is voting with its feet
A June survey by Invesco shows that global sovereign funds managing about $29 trillion are shifting allocations away from U.S. Treasuries toward energy and physical assets.
Sixty percent of central banks explicitly state—the scale of U.S. debt is unsustainable, and the dollar's reserve status is being eroded.
Bridgewater founder Dalio directly said last Friday: investors should reduce bond holdings, allocate 10% to 15% to gold, and buy a "small amount" of Bitcoin.
The founder of the world's largest hedge fund says—don't trust U.S. debt, buy Bitcoin.
BTC is completing an "identity switch"
It is no longer just a "Fed-sensitive index."
Data from K33 Research shows: Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq is bottoming out, and Bitcoin's sensitivity to FOMC rate decisions is significantly below historical cycle levels.
Bitcoin's correlation with the global easing index changed from +0.21 before ETF approval to -0.778—this is not a gradual change but a structural reversal.
It is transforming from a "risk asset" into a "dollar credit hedge tool."
VanEck also said: fiscal-led concerns and structurally weakening dollar are providing institutional narrative support for Bitcoin as a hedging tool.
So, does it really matter if Wash is hawkish or dovish?
Hawkish? Continue raising rates—the economy can't bear it, and dollar credit continues to crack.
Dovish? Shift to easing—inflation keeps burning, and dollar purchasing power keeps falling.
Both paths point to the same direction: dollar credit is depreciating.
What Wash says only affects short-term volatility.
The trend of de-dollarization determines long-term pricing.
$BTC$XAU$CL#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
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