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EricSJ
EricSJ
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#沃尔玛在美销售放缓,消费压力受关注 沃尔玛 $WMT 下半年需要产生的自由现金流是至少109亿 这其实不是财报里的部分,而是我根据管理层在财报电话会上的一句话反推出来的 “预计沃尔玛本财年的自由现金流能够实现两位数增长” 上一财年,沃尔玛 $WMT 全年自由现金流为149.23亿美元 按最低的10%预计,本财年也需要达到至少164.15亿美元 所以 把这个数字减去上半年已有的结果,就得出了约109亿美元的自由现金流数据,同比增长约36.4% 相当于还要多产生29.06亿美元 看我图片的紫色部分应该能看出这个需要的同比增长率高达36% 这个数据增长我真的不认为沃尔玛在接下来的两个季度能够实现 最近的两次超36%的同比增长,都发生在2022年的库存危机之后,但这次没有这个动机和背景 “管理层称主要是战略项目与通胀,没有明显库存风险” 所以这一次,沃尔玛要在资本开支维持高位、库存又没有大幅去化空间的情况下,多创造近29亿美元自由现金流
EricSJ
EricSJ
Walmart's free cash flow dropped by 20%, where will the $10.9 billion come from in the second half of the year?
When a company's profits are growing, free cash flow is declining, and management is boasting that free cash flow will grow by double digits in the second half of the year. Why? If we only talk about the main business, $WMT's released financial report is impressive in terms of both revenue and profit: total revenue for the second quarter reached $187.9 billion, up 5.9% year-on-year; Adjusted operating profit increased 17.4% year-on-year, with adjusted earnings per share reaching $0.81, up 19.1% year-on-year; The company also raised its full-year sales, operating profit, and earnings per share guidance. However, I think the cash flow changes in this financial report are worth discussing. If you look closely, you'll find it's hard to achieve. Two data points need to be reported here: Walmart's free cash flow in the first half of the year fell from $6.943 billion in the same period last year to $5.529 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; However, management still expects free cash flow to achieve double-digit growth this fiscal year. What does this mean? Many people may not have the idea: last fiscal year, Walmart's $WMT had $14.923 billion in free cash flow for the full year. Even at the minimum threshold of 10% for "double-digit growth," this fiscal year still needs to reach at least $16.415 billion. After subtracting the $5.529 billion already generated in the first half, at least $10.886 billion will be needed in the second half, while Walmart's free cash flow in the second half of last year was about $7.98 billion. Look at the chart I made; when you put out the purple part on top, the comparison is very obvious

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