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Crypture 科噗球
Crypture 科噗球
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預測錯了怎麼辦? 打不贏就加入啊! 很可惜這指標組合沒能抓到底部,當然可能還需要一點時間驗證,但接下來也不會再更新這個了,除非比特幣又創新低😅 雖然這指標讓我錯失買入 6 萬比特幣的機會,但我覺得還是一個很好的嘗試,因為根據指標(假設它成立),依然還有將近 40%的下跌,而 8/19、8/20 比特幣都帶量漲了 5%以上,我就認為這更像是牛市訊號,在 7 萬 2 左右買入比特幣,成本高一些但確定性更強。 $BTC
Crypture 科噗球
Crypture 科噗球
Has Bitcoin bottomed out? In the past, four of these five indicators triggered the bottom range within two weeks. These five indicators are: MVRV (Z/Ratio/NUPL), Puell Multiple, ROI 1yr (%), Mayer Multiple (price/200-day line), Price ÷ 200-week line. For each true bottom cycle, an extreme value is taken 45 days before and after. Each of the three bear bottoms is combined into a value range, with the shallow end of the value chosen as the easiest to trigger as the threshold. Triggering four indicators at once has only occurred for three weeks. The past three rounds each triggered exactly one week, so the true bottom falls on those days. Currently, to trigger four values, Bitcoin's price needs to be around $33,600. Looking at past patterns, these indicator thresholds are actually easier to trigger each round. If you calculate these values as a pattern and calculate the next estimated value (for example: 0.564, 0.690, 0.754, with an estimated estimate of 0.783 ~ 0.823), and then use the same method to find the shallow edge of the trigger ribbon, the Bitcoin price triggered by all four indicators at this time is 42,000. Additionally, I originally planned to include the most unique factors of this bear bottom: companies like Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy, which bought heavily in the market, because they are likely to push the market bottom higher. However, the indicators already include an average-anchored (MVRV) indicator, meaning their purchases have already been factored in. Summary: Overall, the bear base this time is probably between 33,000 and 42,000. Looks like there's still a way to go. I think the simplest way is to use a grid to connect. Also, a reminder: the trigger price does not equal the lowest price of that round. If it drops within 2 weeks after triggering, it means the price may be lower than the trigger price. All of the above values are estimates and do not guarantee accuracy. $BTC "The above is a personal summary, not investment advice."

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