Has Bitcoin bottomed out? In the past, four of these five indicators triggered the bottom range within two weeks.
These five indicators are: MVRV (Z/Ratio/NUPL), Puell Multiple, ROI 1yr (%), Mayer Multiple (price/200-day line), Price ÷ 200-week line.
For each true bottom cycle, an extreme value is taken 45 days before and after. Each of the three bear bottoms is combined into a value range, with the shallow end of the value chosen as the easiest to trigger as the threshold. Triggering four indicators at once has only occurred for three weeks. The past three rounds each triggered exactly one week, so the true bottom falls on those days. Currently, to trigger four values, Bitcoin's price needs to be around $33,600.
Looking at past patterns, these indicator thresholds are actually easier to trigger each round. If you calculate these values as a pattern and calculate the next estimated value (for example: 0.564, 0.690, 0.754, with an estimated estimate of 0.783 ~ 0.823), and then use the same method to find the shallow edge of the trigger ribbon, the Bitcoin price triggered by all four indicators at this time is 42,000.
Additionally, I originally planned to include the most unique factors of this bear bottom: companies like Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy, which bought heavily in the market, because they are likely to push the market bottom higher. However, the indicators already include an average-anchored (MVRV) indicator, meaning their purchases have already been factored in.
Summary: Overall, the bear base this time is probably between 33,000 and 42,000. Looks like there's still a way to go. I think the simplest way is to use a grid to connect. Also, a reminder: the trigger price does not equal the lowest price of that round. If it drops within 2 weeks after triggering, it means the price may be lower than the trigger price. All of the above values are estimates and do not guarantee accuracy.
$BTC
"The above is a personal summary, not investment advice."
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