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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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目前这个市场还是有点“撕裂”式的疯狂!黄金与 #Bitcoin 在同步拉升! 买黄金的理由是什么? 是2026年美联储加息预期下降,是债市风险引发的财政信用危机担忧,是经济高通胀伴随着消费走弱的滞胀预期 简单来说,买黄金就是为了防止美国经济出现风险,降息也无法避免金融风险。 但是支撑 #BTC 买入的逻辑是什么? 目前我只看到了因为19日的白宫加密会议带来情绪引导,是ETF 与加密资金的持续放大流入! 也许,市场已经在用资金投票,但是在我的视角下,BTC属于高Beta资产,如果宏观整体压制风险资产的乐观偏好, $BTC 可以抵抗多久?#BTC加速拉升,资金还能继续接力吗?
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Since the data temporarily validates the price increase of #Bitcoin, where to look when returning to the market? The price still shows strong momentum after breaking through 74,200,
Since the data temporarily validates the price increase of #Bitcoin, where should we look back on the market? After the price broke through 74,200, it still maintained strong momentum. Continuing yesterday's ETF and net capital inflow again broke a three-month high, so the upward potential needs to keep opening. 74,200 is the first resistance of the Fibonacci rebound from the bottom range; a rebound to this point is a weak rebound. Around 84,000 is a completion of a regular rebound, and around 92,000 is a strong rebound. Referring to this logic, combined with the current sufficient data momentum, the next key point is to watch the situation around 84,000, especially focusing on whether this rebound can break through the previous daily high near 82,600. Whether it can break a new high indicates different subsequent judgment logic: a) If the rebound breaks a new high, reaching 84,000 to complete a regular rebound, BTC has effectively completed bottoming out, moving out of the weak zone. The probability of a subsequent drop back to 58,000–60,000 is small, and the bottom range bottoming is likely completed. After the next correction, it will be the opportunity to start a new trend. b) If the rebound does not break a new high and stops in the 80,000–82,000 range, caution is needed for whether the next correction will break a new low. Referring to the previous daily trend, it is necessary to carefully verify whether a new low is broken and whether the bottom range bottoming is completed. Whether a new trend starts later depends on whether effective bottoming is achieved. #BTC加速拉升,资金还能继续接力吗? Honestly, from a macro perspective and the risk market perspective represented by the US stock market, $B

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